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The draft is almost upon us. Monday is the day for the top picks, followed by numerous picks on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Jays pick late this year although they do have two picks in the first round. The Jays pick at 22 and 28.

With the Jays having the 22nd pick it is almost impossible to know who will be available when the Jays pick. In addition there is change in the Jays organization that will also create uncertainty over the Jays direction. Who will decide the Jays first pick? Will it be Ross Atkins? Many GM's call the first round pick and leave later picks to the scouting team. Atkins doesn't have a long track record to get a read on him. The first three picks last season were TJ Zeuch, JB Woodman and Bo Bichette. Other than a preference for short first names there is variety there and no strong pattern.

Ben Cherrington now has a senior role in the Jays organization. Based on his history I assume he too will play a big role. The new scouting director Steve Sanders is also an ex Red Sox, I assume they will try and replicate what worked best in Boston.

Baseball America has a new mock draft out this morning. With pick number 22 they see the Jays choosing between two college players, Logan Warmoth, a shortstop, and David Peterson, a college lefty and former premier.

With the 28th pick, BA has the Jays looking at college first basemen, specifically Gavin Sheets, son of former Oriole Larry.

Many bauxites will have their wish list. Who is on yours?

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#343180) #
FWIW, Batters Box favourite Keith Law's mock has Jays picking:

22. Toronto Blue Jays

Alex Faedo, RHP

Florida

Iíve mostly heard them being in on college players, more bats than arms, including Warmoth, Burger, Stuart Fairchild, Gavin Sheets and of course the UVa twins, who arenít getting down here. Iíve also heard the Blue Jays with Canning, who also will be long gone.
PeterG - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#343181) #
Things are changing rapidly and unexpectedly in terms of predictions from BA. Neither Peterson or Sheets has been associated with the Jays previously with Sheets never before seen in the 1st round. Last week's BA mock had Hays taking two college pitchers, Houck and Lange.

A HS pitcher that I like is Sam Carlson out of Minnesota.

It could be that Sheets will sign for substantially under slot. It could be that pedigree is important to the Jays as it was last year.

I do think that the Jays will select a college catcher in the first 5 rounds, possibly as high as round 2.

Expect the unexpected.
Mike Green - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#343182) #
Neither of the two collegiate position players makes my heart skip a beat.  Warmoth is apparently an excellent defender at shortstop with power, but strikes out way too much.  Give me the Pedroias of the world please, but if there are none available then he wouldn't be bad.  Sheets has big-time power but also strikes out way too much. 

I normally don't care for collegiate pitchers in the first round, but David Peterson impresses me from all perspectives, both (very cursory) scouting and statistical.  To tell the truth, I like him better than either of the position players. 

ramone - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#343195) #
I was hoping Jake Burger would still be around when the Jays were up but he's started moving up mocks in the last few weeks.
GabrielSyme - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#343196) #
High-strikeout college hitters scare me even more than high-K high schoolers. They've had more experience, and they are still striking out too much, I'm not sure why people would be optimistic about them improving their contact ability materially once facing better pitching.

I think there are some good high school talents who should be available in the 20s - Heliot Ramos and Sam Carlson look particularly intriguing.
PeterG - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#343197) #
I think the Jays are leaning heavily to college players in the early rounds but Carlson would be ok if he is available. I have seen him projected as high as 15 and as low as 30.
PeterG - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#343198) #
The latest from Jim Callis has Jays going with Warmoth and Carlson with Houck also a possibility at 22.

In an interview on Sportsnet with Steve Sanders, he suggested that it is still too early to say in which direction Jays may go as so much depends on what happens ahead of them and they must be prepared for multiple scenarios and opportunities.
hypobole - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#343199) #
I'm not as concerned over Warmoth's K%. Dansby Swanson's was higher (albeit with more power and a bit more OBP) and and he went 1-1.
uglyone - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#343200) #
couldn't agree with Gabriel any more. college hitters with major contact issues scare me unless there's massive power.
uglyone - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#343205) #
i'm intrigued by nick allen.
PeterG - Friday, June 09 2017 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#343206) #
They may be looking for someone who will agree to substantially less than slot at 28.
mendocino - Saturday, June 10 2017 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#343220) #
MLB.com reports RHP Griffin Channing's MRI came back with potential issues, some teams already taking a pass and LHP Luke Heimlich has been removed from several teams draft boards and will probably go undrafted.
PeterG - Saturday, June 10 2017 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#343223) #
There are rumours that Stanford's Tristan Beck, who did not pitch in 2017, may have a pre draft deal (obviously under slot) with one of the 3 teams with two 1st round picks. Jays are one of those teams.
John Northey - Saturday, June 10 2017 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#343239) #
I love when the Jays take a shot at guys who dropped drastically just before the draft due to injury as often those injuries heal but the talent is still there. Given draft picks are crap shoots for the most part (68 first round picks for the Jays, 43 reached the majors, just 9 have 10+ WAR, 10 more with 5-9.9 WAR, 4 more with 2-4.9 WAR so I'd say no more than 23 out of 68 first rounders who have shown enough value to be worth mentioning or roughly 1 in 3. So swing for the fences and see if you can get a future star, screw going for a safe pick.

Heck, only 4 #1 overall picks ever cracked 50 WAR (HOF consideration level imo) with 28 reaching 10 WAR overall (out of 51 players) so even with a #1 overall pick you are just a bit over 50-50 odds of getting a solid ML'er.

Yes, teams are getting better (in theory) as they increase scouting efforts. 1965 (first draft) saw 13 of 20 reach, with 4 cracking 10 WAR, 3 more reaching 2 WAR. Ugh. 6 of 20 who did something worth noting or 30%.

1975: 12 of 24 reached, none had 10 WAR, 2 cracked 5 WAR, 1 more cracked 2 WAR. Ugly, ugly, ugly. 3rd round had 2 over 10 WAR (Carney Lansford and Don Robinson) as did the 4th and 5th (which had Lou Whitaker at over 70 WAR).

1985: 20 of 28 reached, 1 over 100 WAR (Barry Bonds), 2 more over 70 (Palmeiro, Larkin), 1 more over 50 (Will Clark), 1 more over 20 (BJ Surhoff - the #1 pick), 6 more over 10, 2 more over 5 WAR. so 13 out of 28 were worth getting with 3 having strong HOF cases and 1 a weak HOF case. FYI: Jays wasted their pick on Greg David who never reached AAA let alone the majors. Round #2 saw Randy Johnson get drafted (another 100 WAR guy). A lot of really good players were drafted later (such as David Justice). Talk about a killer draft.

1995: 19 of 30 reached, 2 over 60 WAR (Halladay & Helton), 4 more over 20 WAR, 1 more over 10 WAR, 1 more over 5, 3 more over 2. So for 'worth drafting' you get 11 players with 2 potential HOF'ers. Strong draft. Round #2 saw Carlos Beltran (70) with 3 more over 10 drafted, 4 more over 10 in the 3rd round, 2 more in the 4th round.

2005: 37 of 48 reached, 7 cracking 20 WAR, 7 more over 10, 2 more over 5 WAR, 5 more over 2 WAR. Round 2 saw just 2 over 20 WAR (thats it over 10 as well).

Not sure what to conclude as talent year to year fluctuates too. Some times you have a Randy Johnson out there, most of the time you don't.
bpoz - Saturday, June 10 2017 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#343249) #
Some of the rounds are protected. I believe the top 3. But it may also include the 4th round. A team does not have to sign the player. There is a carryover to the next year. The team retains the pick and the $ value.

So some strategy is implemented.
PeterG - Sunday, June 11 2017 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#343304) #
Latest Bleacher Report has Jays taking Fairchild and Ramos at 22 and 28. Ugh!

It is a long time since I have seem so much pre draft uncertainty.
hypobole - Sunday, June 11 2017 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#343309) #
Law's latest mock:

Nate Pearson, RHP

College of Central Florida

A lot of folks think Pearson already has a deal with a team picking somewhere in the 20s -- he declined to work out for a team below this spot -- and Toronto is the most common suspect. They've also been tied to a number of college bats, including Warmoth, White and Stuart Fairchild.
PeterG - Sunday, June 11 2017 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#343312) #
Maybe the Jays have 2 under slot deals arranged:

Pearson at 22 and Beck (Tristan) at 28 ?

I do believe they have an interest in Warmoth. He might be there at 22 but not likely at 28.
85bluejay - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#343319) #
Given the high bar for 1st base prospects and what I've read, I will be disappointed if the Jays take a 1st baseman with either of their top 2 picks.
mendocino - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#343322) #
MLB's latest:

#22 Evan White (Mayo)/ Logan Warmoth (Callis)

#28 Gavin Sheets (Mayo)/ Sam Carlson (Callis)

MLB will have one more update later today
PeterG - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#343323) #
BA's latest this morning

Warmoth and Sheets
hypobole - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#343327) #
Dave Schoenfield at ESPN:

When I attended the SABR Analytics Conference in 2016, one of the more interesting presentations was delivered by Robert Brustad, a professor at Northern Colorado University's School of Sport and Exercise Science. The basic synopsis: Brustad studied the ages of high school kids selected in the first 20 rounds from 2005 to 2012 and found older high school players eventually underachieved based on their draft position while younger high schoolers overachieved. (Brustad's study produced similar results to one by Rany Jazeryli that reviewed drafts from 1965 to 1995.)

A primary reason for this effect can be physical maturity. Older kids may have already maxed out their physical growth; younger kids -- who may not throw as hard or appear as strong -- may have more growth left in them.

Some "young" players, all not yet 18 when drafted included Mike Trout, Madison Bumgarner, Anthony Rizzo, Correa, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman and Chris Archer. Other young high schoolers who will be 17 on draft day include Puerto Rican OF Heliot Ramos (No. 21 on Law's board), RHP Shane Baz (No. 45 on Law's board), and OF Quentin Holmes (No. 33 on MLB.com's board).
PeterG - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#343328) #
This draft seems totally unpredictable as teams not only search for talent but for 1st or 2nd round picks who will sign below slot. I have no idea whatsoever who the Jays will actually pick and with so many wildcards ahead of them, I am sure they don't either. Teams will need full use of all of their allotted clock time tonight.

Who will be watching and what do u expect?
ayjackson - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#343338) #
BA 5.0 now has us on Nate Pearson at #22 too. May be some substance to this rumour.

They still have us on bloodlines Sheets at #28.
PeterG - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#343339) #
I would be fine with Pearson. I don't want Sheets in 1st round as he is 2nd round talent. It would have to be a substantial less than slot signing to make sense.

Although some diaagree, I think a selection of Sheets would have huge negative implications on the future of Tellez within the Jays organization.
PeterG - Monday, June 12 2017 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#343340) #
I would take Sam Carlson at 28 if he is still on the board.
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