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A big question for 2018 is what is the Jays Payroll and how much is already used up?

Via Cot's Contacts we get...
  • ---Guaranteed Contracts---
  • Russell Martin $20.0 mil
  • Troy Tulowitzki $20.0 mil
  • Marco Estrada $13.0 mil
  • JA Happ $13.0 mil
  • Kendres Morales $12.0 mil
  • Steve Pearce $6.25 mil
  • Justin Smoak $4.125 mil
  • Lourdes Gurriel $1.929 mil
  • ---Arbitration--- (projections via MLB Trade Rumors service time in brackets
  • Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
  • Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
  • Tom Koehler (4.090) – $6.0MM
  • Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
  • Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
  • Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
  • Ryan Goins (3.106) – $1.8MM
  • Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
  • Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
  • Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
  • ---Jays choose what to pay (normally $500-750k each)---
  • Dalton Pompey, Danny Barnes, and the rest
Total: $142.904 million plus pre-arb crew (10 or so = $5-7 mil) ~ $148 million.

Note: $6 mil can be quickly saved by not offering Koehler a contract. I wouldn't be surprised if Osuana gets half of what MLBTR expects him to get (first year arb tends to be less). Still this gives a worst case for now. Leaving the Jays vs last years opening day payroll of $163.38 mil payroll roughly $15 mil space to work with. To stay near the top 10 they'll need to up that by another $10 mil I'd guess.
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
James W - Wednesday, October 11 2017 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#350027) #
MLB minimum salary is $545,000 in 2018.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 11 2017 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#350028) #
I just rounded to $500k for simplicity. 45k one way or another per player won't make a bit of difference as to who they sign this winter. ($45k x 25 player = $1.125 million)
hypobole - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#350029) #
Osuna should get over $5 million for sure. Rosenthal got $5.6, Holland $4.7 their 1st arb years.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#350030) #
CBS 2017 Opening Day Payroll for the Blue Jays was $177,795,368. So with that as the upper marker and Cots as the lower marker, the Jays have $20.68 Million to $35.09 Million to spend baring trade from the MLB Roster.

That could mean non-tenders of Players making too much. What does Donaldson bring back in a trade, is it enough? What is Pillar’s value, plus what gets you what? Who gets upgraded and who should be upgraded?
John Northey - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 03:16 AM EDT (#350031) #
hypobole - Lets compare...

Greg Holland: up to 2014 when he got the big deal ERA of 2.41 67 saves 12.3 K/9 vs 3.3 BB/9

Rosenthal: up to 2016 when he got his cash - ERA of 2.66 96 saves 11.5 K/9 vs 3.6 BB/9

Osuna: 2.86 ERA, 95 saves 10.4 K/9 1.7 BB/9. His 10 blown saves this year plus the 3.38 ERA will hurt him. Rosenthal had a 2.10 ERA the year arb was there with just 3 blown vs 48 saves.

So I don't see Osuna getting more than those 2 or even as much. $4-$4.5 million he probably will get if it gets to the arbitrator but I suspect the Jays will try to get it done early around $5 mil. In truth I didn't notice how high reliever salaries were getting I just remember how they've always been around half of starters for the highest end.
scottt - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#350036) #
A lot hangs around Donaldson. Trading him would free a good chunk of money. Extending him could also tilt the number one way or another.

The injuries repress the salaries of Travis and Sanchez. That's a good thing if they  are healthy otherwise...

Koehler is expensive, but has looked good in the pen.
With Loup, it's not so much the money, but not being able to send him down.
I suppose they start the year with him and if he struggles they trade him or release him.
The other lefties can use some work anyway.

So, an impact arm (either a decent starter or Brett Anderson plus a lefty for the pen) and an impact bat.
The real need is a second baseman. A decent one like Kingsler or Dee Gordon would require a prospect and 10M in salary.

bpoz - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#350040) #
JD is $21 mil. I figured $25 mil. But I am just a guesser. I did no research.

Regarding the left over budget, how can the FO be conservative? This means get a predicted healthy player rather than a fragile one. Morales was healthy and Pearce was fragile. Both got their market value I assume. Mainly no luck involved. Their health was reasonably accurate.

rpriske - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#350041) #
I don't understand how someone like Tom Koehler is in line for $6m.

Easy cut.

PeterG - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#350042) #
Jays might not be able to find anyone better than Koehler for less than 6 mil. He looked great in the pen.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#350044) #
I think the club has to take the risk that they can't find anyone better than Koehler for less than $6 million.  They've got more pressing needs than relief pitching.  Obviously the club may try to work something out with him to come back for less than what he would get in arb. 
bpoz - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#350045) #
No disagreements from me. Just an opinion. Koehler as the 5th SP is a gamble I don't like. For the pen he is too expensive at $66 mil.

What 5th SP results are various Bauxites looking for?

If we don't add a 5th starter, then that spot is open to attract more cheap candidates. Hope may count for something. Last year the 5th belonged to Liriano.
PeterG - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#350046) #
By the time arb tenders come around, the Jays should already know if they can sign someone better than Koehler. Jesse Chavez was signed for 6 mil last off season by the Angels. I would argue that Koehler is a better investment. That said, trying to work out a cheaper deal seems sensible. He is there, if they don't find someone else. As as vet stabilizer in the pen, he could be useful as well as a trading chip at the deadline if necessary. Whatever, I don't expect any FA to be signed to more than a one year contract.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#350047) #
The Minors will start to have more and more players available to call up, if needed, in 2018 and beyond. How good they are, determines where they will play, Jays’ MLB Roster, AAA-fodder or Trade Asset.

Beyond Teoscar Hernandez and the optionable Relievers, They Jays have decisions to make, everywhere. The Players from the Jays’ MLB Top 30 List who might get to AAA in 2018 is huge. (Or are there, but in no special order).
Vladimir Guerrero - 3B
Bo Bichette - SS/2B
Anthony Alford - CF/OF
Sean Read-Foley - RHP
Richard Urena - SS/2B
Connor Greene - RHP
Rowdy Telez - 1B
Ryan Borucki - LHP
Danny Jansen - C
Jon Harris - RHP
Thomas Pannone - LHP
Francisco Rios - RHP
Harold Ramirez - OF
Someone’s getting traded, I don’t know who or how many, but someone gets traded.
Nigel - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#350048) #
I understand that the following wasn't the point of the original post but you cannot have salary conversations without including currency and regular baseball salary inflation. Salary inflation in baseball has been between 5-10% for the past 15 years. The Canadian dollar is just short of 10% more valuable than at this time last year. The starting payroll last year was around $165m. A payroll of anything less than $180-190m to start 2018 means that Rogers has actually cut the payroll.
hypobole - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#350049) #
John - K/9 or BB/9 matter little in arbitration. ERA, Saves, IP do matter. And past year performance matters far less than cumulative in 1st year arb. Osuna should get over $5 million whether he goes to arb or not.
Magpie - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#350050) #
I don't understand how someone like Tom Koehler is in line for $6m.

Koehler had been in the Marlins' rotation for three seasons and was arbitration eligible last spring. He and the team avoided arbitration with a one-year deal for 5.75 million.

I don't think he's a viable starting pitcher in the AL East. I think he could become a good reliever, and he did look good in the pen for the Jays. But it was just 12 innings, which doesn't really convince me of anything. And it's still my firm conviction that relief pitchers grow on trees and if you give the tree a shake, several useful relievers will fall to the ground, waiting for you to pick them up. And if you give one of them $6 million dollars, you're doing it wrong.
bpoz - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#350051) #
I totally agree with Magpie.

As a reliever he has a long way to climb to be the Jay's 2018 top setup man or closer in case of failures. He would be worth the money in that situation. Grilli & Benoit were worth it in 2016. But they were probably flukes ie not predicted.
Dewey - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#350052) #
But they were probably flukes ie not predicted.

Nah, the fluke is when a prediction is accurate.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#350053) #
There are three extension decisions that must be considered by the Jays.
1) Marcus Stroman will be getting expensive very fast. I’d go five years but not more.
2) Roberto Osuna might be earning record monies. This is where I go 10 years.
3) The elephant in the room is Josh Donaldson. How much? How long? Does he get traded? This one item will dominate the offseason and is sure to be a hot topic everywhere.
John Northey - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#350054) #
K/9 and BB/9 may or may not matter. We aren't in those hearings. However, we do know saves and blown saves will matter as will ERA. A lot. Osuna blew 10 saves while the guy who got $5.6 blew just 3 while getting 9 more saves. I find it very hard to believe an arbitrator won't look poorly on Osuna over that. No way Osuna gets more than Rosenthal did. Agreed that last year matters most and if so then Osuna looks a lot worse vs the 2 you listed, leading to a sub $5 mil possibility.
bpoz - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#350055) #
Works for me Dewey. Haha. Um... You were making a joke. Right. I don't want to laugh at you. It does seem that I need a little help understanding what used to be easy before. Getting old and unsure. Confused easily.
John Northey - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#350056) #
Richard - 10 years for a closer??? That would be insanity unless he took a silly low amount per year. Relievers are easily the hardest to predict going forward of any player and Osuna already had one Tommy John surgery.

Stroman for 5 years would make a lot of sense imo.
Donaldson is by far the biggest elephant in the room though. Trade him and free up $20 mil or so this year, sign him and spend a bit more this year and $30+ mil a year for the next 4 years+, or just play him and lose him without much of anything in return (a second round pick iirc).
greenfrog - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#350057) #
You know, it's funny. I don't recall Shapiro and Atkins ever clearly articulating what it is they're aiming to accomplish in Toronto in terms of success on the field, and how they intend to achieve this goal. By way of comparison, here is Cashman on how the current Yankees team was built (from a Travis Sawchuk article in April 2017 - the article is worth reading in its entirety):

To Cashman, it was clear two years earlier that the Yankees lacked the farm system capable of producing the pre-arbitration talent all elite teams — regardless of market size — require. Cashman believed the Yankees should dismantle to some degree. As early as the summer of 2014, Cashman was thinking about trading veteran players for younger assets.

“Turning the clock back with Robby Cano, it looked like he was going to stay with us. We pursued an extension with him ,and it wasn’t even close with what he wanted,” Cashman said. “He was, to me, someone we ultimately should have moved at the deadline but didn’t. So he left us as a free agent.”

The Yankees’ situation last summer was similar to what it had been in 2014 when Cashman began broaching the idea of selling off assets last season.

“I had recommended strongly that we push the reset button for our benefit,” Cashman said. “Probably starting in June, I had a lot of dialogue regarding what we should do and Hal Steinbrenner was telling me, ‘Well, I’m not thinking the way you are at this moment in time, but keep making recommendations.’ In my dialogue with ownership, [I said], ‘Every decision we make should try to put us closer to the next world championship. We want that to be in the upcoming season, but that doesn’t mean that is necessarily going to be the case.’ We have the most championships in the history of our sport, but we’ve been pursuing excellence for a 100 years plus and we don’t have a 100 championships. So there’s no embarrassment for not winning something [every season].”
Mike Green - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#350058) #
I think that it's pretty clear that Atkins/Shapiro would agree with the view that it is necessary to develop stars from within the system.  And they did sell at the deadline. 

It's a funny thing, but for some reason it seems to be easier to sell relief pitchers at the deadline for value than it is to sell position player stars.  Chapman (for 1/2 a year only) for Torres was a great trade.  I doubt that the Blue Jays had any offers as good for Donaldson even though he is a superior player (by a lot) and has a year to run on his contract. 

greenfrog - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#350059) #
Mike, I think that trade had a lot to do with the stars aligning perfectly for the Yankees: a championship-starved buyer (the Cubs) in a different division/league with an abundant farm system and position players to spare, a very ambitious Cubs front office, and the then-emerging recognition of the tremendous impact elite relief arms can have in the postseason. Also, Chapman and Miller in 2016 were more than just above-average relievers; they were absolutely dominant multi-inning bullpen arms.
SK in NJ - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#350060) #
I think the Jays FO has said exactly what Cashman mentioned in that article, more or less. They have mentioned not having enough young big league ready players (or "championship" level young players), inheriting a depleted/bottom heavy farm system that needed a few years to build back up, and having an older roster. Cashman can talk about things in hindsight because he's looking back on it. The Jays today are where Cashman was in 2013 (Donaldson being Cano in this example). Shapiro is probably having the same conversations with ownership about taking a step back. The difference is Cashman was able to bypass rebuilding entirely with great trades. I don't think the Jays have enough to do that, especially if they lose Donaldson for nothing after this coming season.

What the Yankees and Indians are today is what Shapiro wants the Jays to be, moreso the Yankees since the Jays will have a much higher payroll. To build something like that quicker will require getting young talent back for vets, but until they start doing that, it's hard to know what the timeline will actually be.
greenfrog - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#350061) #
Essentially, what Cashman was saying -- in April 2017, not October 2017 -- is that his goal was and is for the Yankees to be the best team in baseball, and that he pursued a very deliberate strategy (actually a change of strategy) towards that goal. I have never heard Shapiro or Atkins express clearly what their goal is and how they intend to attain that goal. Everything they say is hedged.
PeterG - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#350062) #
I think that is a good analysis SK. I think that the key to rebuilding quickly is to trade JD this off season. Failure to do that will be a mistake and the build will take longer. If it's good enough for the Yankees, it should be good enough for the Jays.
hypobole - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#350063) #
I was trying to say the previous season matters less (not more) than cumulative performance in the 1st year of arb. And Rosenthal got $5.6. I'm not saying Osuna will get more - he'll get somewhere between $5 -5.6.
hypobole - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#350064) #
Mike, pretty well every contender can use pitching upgrades at the deadline, especially for elite starters and relievers. In the playoffs especially, elite relievers are called upon more than the regular season. It's very much a sellers market.
scottt - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#350066) #
In my opinion, it's too late for a rebuild. That would just be throwing away the best years of Guerrero and Bichette.
Now, if they come up and struggle, that's totally different, then you can look to compete in 2024.

SK in NJ - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#350069) #
Shapiro has mentioned that the long-term goal is to build a long-term sustainable winner. That's a fairly generic answer, but that's what the Yankees are. Cashman mentioned in that quote that he wanted to sell off players in 2014 but ownership had different ideas. He had to work around that to build the type of team he felt the Yankees needed to be. That's pretty much where the Jays are, except Shapiro cannot reflect on anything because nothing has happened yet. He is likely where Cashman was 3 years ago, wanting to hit the reset button to get younger, but is getting resistance from ownership who want to keep the stadium filled and the money rolling in. Shapiro can't say that his direction conflicts with Rogers because it would make ownership look bad, and really wouldn't benefit anything the team is trying to do. So he's spinning it to the media.

The last two off-seasons have been signing cheap vet stop-gaps to fill holes, and emphasizing development in the farm system. Basically, like Cashman has done the past 3-4 years, the Jays are trying to play both sides. Field a team capable of contending late in the year (82-85 wins) but also trying to infuse as much young talent into the system/organization as they can.

That's why I really want to see the Jays take some chances like Cashman did with younger players (Didi, Castro, Hicks, etc). Make some trades where you're getting a player that might be undervalued. Teoscar was a good start, he has a chance to be an average big league OF, but keep making those types of moves. If they want to bypass a full on rebuild, then they are going to have to hit some home runs on trades.
John Northey - Thursday, October 12 2017 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#350070) #
There is a big thing many here are forgetting. There rarely are many 5+ WAR players out there. Over the last 5 years (2013-2017) just 5 hitters averaged 5+ WAR a year - Trout, Donaldson, Goldschmidt, Votto, McCutchen. Just 25 had 4+ WAR a year (20) over the past 5 years - EE just missed it.

Guys like Donaldson are extremely hard to get. What about another subset? Lets grab 2003-2007 - you get 6 hitters (Pujols, A-Rod, Bonds, Beltran, Ichiro, Andruw Jones), 25 with 4+ per year (including Vlad Sr).

What if we go back to the Jays glory years? 1989-1993. We get 6 hitters for 5+ (Bonds, Henderson, Rikpen, Sandberg, Griffey Jr, McGriff), 20 for 4+ (including Alomar, White, and Molitor).

In short, finding a guy like Donaldson isn't easy and you really can't replace him. Guys worth 4+ WAR a year are a bit less than 1 per team and guys like Donaldson are more 1 per league. You trade him and you will never get equivalent value back, you just hope for reasonable returns. Now, that said, the question becomes what would it cost to keep him? $25-$30 million a year for 5 years seems the starting point and that means you get his decline years which should still average 3+ WAR but that isn't so rare - 55 in the past 5 years including Tulo, Bautista, Martin, Encarnacion. On average almost 2 per club. So not a ton of them, but enough that you should be able to get them.

So, ideally the Jays find a partner who will take on Donaldson's decline years but is willing to give up the future as their future is now but they have a hole at third. So who qualifies as a contender who might be desperate to show they are trying thus will give up some quality kids for maybe just one year of Donaldson or have deep enough pockets to stretch that out?

Boston: their most used 3B was a 20 year old Rafael Devers (112 OPS+ in 240 PA) the others they tried were disasters so the kid has the position. Normally I'd expect Boston to say 'he is our guy' period. But after a quick playoff exit for the 2nd straight year they might be desperate to do something big and Donaldson would be big. They have near or at ML high quality prospects so they could do the deal (ideally we'd get Devers) but they'd be idiots to go for that and the people running the Red Sox are not normally idiots.

The Angels used Yunel Escobar at 3B this past year (yes, the ex-Jay) so you know they are desperate there. With Trout and the nightmare Pujols contract they know their window is closing (Trout was the only regular under 27) so adding a second super-star would be a good idea potentially and they have the bucks to keep him if they choose. However, they had only 1 top 100 prospect going into this year Jahmai Jones (19 in A/A+ 794 OPS in CF).

Those 2 are the only ones who jumped out at me as contenders who might be seeing their window closing thus might be desperate enough to do a crazy deal.

Sigh. I miss the AA days when it comes to trades as you never knew what was coming next.
bpoz - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#350071) #
Thanks John. I cannot understand the numbers, but you have used them to find elite hitters.

That/there is a lot to consider.

1) Rogers is a big company, Toronto/Canada is also big. The fans spend time and money on a winner. Will Rogers spend money? Their decision, probably based on the returns on costs .

2) The FO will never tell us their plans IMO. They will say what is best to be said. They will be vague. That is expected.

3) The FO knows the facts. The actual $ parameters. They know where they are young and old. They know costs coming up and the costs going off the books. They know what the comfortable wins zone is. They see the window opening and closing. They know when it is time to open it wide and go for it. Playoff games are money makers. And when to shut the window.

4) They know that their neighborhood is the AL East. A rich neighborhood.
Mike Green - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#350072) #
I wonder if this is the year that the myth of the ace starting pitcher starts to erode. Obviously a pitcher who gives a club 200 very good innings in a year is very valuable, but even the best of them seems to be able to deliver at best only 5-6 decent innings in the playoffs on average.  And with the playoffs involving more teams and lasting more rounds, it has become a bigger deal.

It has long struck me that the 5 man rotation/7 or 8 man bullpen is highly inefficient. Teams have 2 or 3 pitchers (at most) who you want to see in there for the 3rd time through the order, but clubs try to get 5 of them to do it.  Perhaps the time is ripe now for some forward-thinking club to make a change so that some of the rotation slots are effectively tandem.  No one is worrying in the playoffs whether a starter gets "the win", and I think the first step is for a general manager to say publicly what many already know- "we are not interested in whether a starting pitcher wins the game, all we want from him is as many good innings as he can give". 

If you have a successful season, you enter the playoff with 2 or 3 pitchers who are ready to go 7-8 innings, and 4 to 6 pitchers who are ready to go 4 innings.  That seems to me to be pretty much optimal, given the way pitchers are used in the playoffs already. 

bpoz - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#350074) #
Very good but complicated issue Mike. I hope you get some responses based on the theory rather than how the Jays would be affected.
Ducey - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#350076) #
"Those 2 are the only ones who jumped out at me as contenders who might be seeing their window closing thus might be desperate enough to do a crazy deal."

The Cardinals have been reported to be after Donaldson since July, and in September it was said that they are going to "strongly pursue" him this offseason.

They have Gyorko, who is a reasonable facsimile of a good 3rd baseman (3.6 WAR last year), and some good prospects.
pubster - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#350078) #
"Perhaps the time is ripe now for some forward-thinking club to make a change so that some of the rotation slots are effectively tandem"

And if this forward thinking club finishes in last place and gets smoked in their tandem starts, then is this club still forward thinking?
bpoz - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#350080) #
That 1 club is a SSS. A quick hook may be needed for those underwhelming SPs.

Somehow B Tallet and S Richmond were basically full time SPs in 2009. Not V good SPs.
Richard S.S. - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#350082) #
First, determine who’s “dumping” salary. That’s a team with major incentive to deal. Miami is the most obvious.
Second, determine who’s blocking who. There might be a Player the Jays would like.
Third, who must be in the Postseason at all costs. That GM might meet Donaldson’s price.
Last, look for players in the 19 - 25 year-old range. That’s where the Jays are looking.
Mike Green - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#350085) #
The Blue Jays want interns.  Who doesn't?
Richard S.S. - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#350090) #
Not so much interns as someone who will work for next to nothing or less.
Richard S.S. - Friday, October 13 2017 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#350091) #
Kendrys Morales is the logical person to move, but Steve Pearce might be easier to trade. At least then, Morales could give Smoak the occasional break at First, giving someone else the occasional AB at DH. Either way, that still a lot of offense to reproduce.
John Northey - Saturday, October 14 2017 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#350095) #
I hate the concept of unpaid work for a for-profit company. To be that is just evil. There is a minimum wage for a reason. At least pay that much Jays - for these 3 positions it would cost less than the bonus you'd pay a guy for going to the all-star game. Instead they try to avoid even paying bus fare. Of course, if they are paying the interns then I take that back, but sadly corporate culture is to get something for nothing whenever possible. Then they'll be shocked when a pure socialist gets in someday soon. Note how the Liberals now campaign to the left of the NDP on many issues (but still govern closer to the Conservatives once in - at least federally).
jerjapan - Saturday, October 14 2017 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#350096) #
Couldn't agree with you more - on the surface, I think the justification is "whoever wants in the most" - and is therefore willing to work for free - is the best candidate for a highly desirable job.   But not many of the working poor / middle class can really afford to work for free, can they?  The old boys network continues.  With female coaches / refs in hockey, basketball and football, I fear baseball is pretty behind in terms of equity. 

BTW, John, I get the feeling I'd be voting for you if I was in Thunder Bay ...
scottt - Saturday, October 14 2017 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#350098) #
Federally, we've never seen the NDP do anything, so we can't say with honesty how close the Liberals are to them.
The Conservatives care only about abortion, the oil industry and tax cuts that advantage the wealthy.
The Liberals are trying to do something that makes a lot of sense.
Reducing the fiscal advantages of companies that employ nobody.
Lawyers, doctors, etc are all fungible. Those jobs are never going to India.
At some points the provinces encouraged the doctors to incorporate and pay less taxes.
That was a way to get the federal to subsidize them.
It's a bit like those provincial job programs that only push people into chronic EI.

Unless it's with Vancouver, a job with an affiliate is going to fall under US laws anyway.
I would think they would restrict applicants to US citizens only. No?

John Northey - Saturday, October 14 2017 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#350099) #
Thanks jerjapan. Might run in the next provincial election. I'm 50-50 right now on it. Takes a lot of time and odds are slim as I run as a Green and this is a pure Liberal riding where you almost could run a donkey and it'd win if it wore red. Still, important in a democracy to make sure options are there for voters so we never get stuck with a 2 party mess like the USA is in. Note: I am trying to avoid any political stances or judgements here as this isn't the place for that.

Say, I am curious if anyone else here has ever run at any level regardless of party or has considered it. No matter what your political views please consider it as we need more good people out there and who could be better than Blue Jay fans :)
jerjapan - Saturday, October 14 2017 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#350101) #
Agreed on that point John - good people trump party allegiance.  I'd vote for you as a Green even though I'm an NDPer, and I even have a friend who would get me to vote conservative if and when he runs. 

Loads of respect for you and other candidates that run in those 'impossible' to win ridings, or for the less popular parties.  The differences between Canada and the States depend in part on those efforts. 

And while we are talking politics, time for some electoral reform, no?   
John Northey - Saturday, October 14 2017 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#350102) #
Back to baseball...
Dumping salary - always hard to know (outside of Miami and Tampa Bay) who will be doing that.

Given opening day payrolls and final won/lost % vs all other ML teams I get a ranking for each. #1 in payroll was the Dodgers and #1 in results were the Dodgers so they get a score of 0 (payroll matched results). The Brewers had the lowest opening day payroll at $63 mil but came in 10th overall so they get a score of 20. The Tigers, on the other hand had the 2nd highest opening day payroll and came in 29th for a score of -27 (ouch).

The teams with the worst results...
Tigers: -27 (pay 2, results 29)
Giants: -24 (pay 5, results 29 - yes tied with Tigers)
Mets: -13 (pay 12, results 25)
Orioles: -10 (pay 10, results 20)

The Jays were -8 (pay 11, results 19) tied with Texas.

On the other extreme was
Arizona: 21 (pay 26, results 5)
Milwaukee: 20 (pay 30, results 10)
Cleveland: 16 (pay 18, results 2)
Tampa: 15 (pay 28, results 13)
Houston: 14 (pay 17, results 3)
Minnesota: 10 (pay 21, results 11)

Everyone else ended with results and pay within 10 of each other - ie: in eyeshot of what they should've expected.

So in theory the Tigers, Giants, Mets, and O's should be dumping as they could've lost that many with cheap players instead of with expensive ones. However, that isn't always how it works in real life. The Tigers are clearly clearing out payroll already. The Giants should be if they haven't started already. The Mets are a mess in ownership so who knows what they will do. The O's like the Jays think they can contend still. So if the Jays are willing to eat payroll to get prospects they should talk with Detroit, San Fran, Miami, and good ol' Tampa Bay.
lexomatic - Saturday, October 14 2017 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#350103) #
The giants are sort of in the same position that the jays were in and still are in unless they trade Donaldson. IE they have a decent core and if they don't have so many injuries and down seasons could sneak into contention. Probably not, though.
PeterG - Sunday, October 15 2017 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#350104) #
3 hitless, scoreless innings with 4 K's from T J Zeuch in the AFL yesterday. Lourdes Gurriel contributed 2 hits and 2 rbi.
bpoz - Sunday, October 15 2017 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#350105) #
1 hitter by the team with 2 outs to go. 12-1 win.
krose - Sunday, October 15 2017 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#350107) #
I’m heading to Surprise for two weeks and will take in some AFL games. Are all of the BJ prospects on the Peoria squad this year?
PeterG - Sunday, October 15 2017 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#350108) #
Yes, all on the same team.
Gerry - Sunday, October 15 2017 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#350109) #
Former Blue Jay minor leaguer Daniel Webb was killed in an ATV accident today. He was just 28 years old. Webb was traded to the White Sox in the Jason Frasor trade in 2012.

Webb made it to the major leagues with the White Sox but had Tommy John surgery and was released in 2016.
PeterG - Tuesday, October 17 2017 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#350148) #
Gurriel 3 for 5 yesterday in AFL. He has been very good so far. If he keeps hitting like this, he will be given a chance to make the team in ST. This too could influence some Jays off season decisions as he can play several positions in the field.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 17 2017 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#350149) #
The competition level in the AFL is apparently lower this year than previously.  Most teams have elected to not send top prospects there.  There are a few exceptions- Acuna and Mejia are there, and Toussaint and Sheffield (and Zeuch) on the pitching side. 

If Gurriel has a good 100 PAs in Arizona (in particular with his W/K/HR) and plays decent defence at shortstop, that would be interesting.  I still think that the club would be foolish to go into the season with Tulo/Travis/Goins/Urena/Gurriel as their middle infield depth chart. 

PeterG - Tuesday, October 17 2017 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#350153) #
I think the Jays will sign another middle infielder but they may be less aggressive if Gurriel has a good AFL season. They will probably sign someone who is disposable in case Lourdes wins the job in ST which I think would be the preferred option for the FO.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 17 2017 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#350165) #
Both Urena and Gurriel; burned 1 option in 2017. Both need full playing time. Most likely in the minors.

Very few jobs are won in ST. The regular pitchers are trying to get ready for the season not prove anything. When the minor league players take over, success against them means little.

This off season will tell us how Goins is viewed by the FO. They know that both Travis and Tulo will spend some time on the DL.
PeterG - Tuesday, October 17 2017 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#350170) #
Another HR for Gurriel in the AFL today. While he is thriving at the plate so far, Max Pentecost is struggling.

Gurriel may begin the 2018 season in the minors, but he won't finish anywhere but TO. This guy is a stud and just needs a little time and additional reps to counteract the almost 2 years of missed playing time.
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