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It's day one of the MLB draft. Auburn pitcher Casey Mize has been selected by the Detroit Tigers first overall. You can follow the picks right here. The # BlueJays are picking 12th and 52nd.

Toronto Blue Jays draft tracker.

1st round - 12th overall - Jordan Groshans, Magnolia HS - 3B, Bats - Right Throws - Right 6-3, 178 lbs. Born November 10, 1999 Pick Value - $4.2M Scouting Report Excerpt.

While Groshans doesn't have an obvious plus tool, he also doesn't have a glaring weakness. Groshans has a quick right-handed stroke and has a track record of catching up to and punishing quality fastballs on the showcase circuit. With his strength, balance and mature approach, he makes consistent hard line-drive contact. Once he fills out his rangy 6-foot-4 frame and adds some loft to his swings, he should have average or better power. An average runner out of the batter's box and quicker once he gets going, Groshans is athletic for his size but won't stay at shortstop after he leaves Magnolia. His solid arm will play anywhere in the infield, where he probably fits best at third base but may have a chance to stick up the middle at second, and he has the makeup to get the most out of his ability. If he attends college, he'll reunite with his brother Jaxx at Kansas.

Baseball America Scouting Report

Groshans might never wind up at Kansas with his older brother, Jaxx, thanks to his performance throughout last summer and this spring at Magnolia High in Texas. A 6-foot-4, 190-pound shortstop, Groshans has quick bat speed and plus raw power and he showed the ability to square up elite pitching on the summer showcase circuit in 2017. He hit 90-plus mph velocity hard all over the field in multiple events, including a home run against a 95-mph fastball from New York righthander Lineras Torres Jr. in the Perfect Game All-American Classic. Over the summer, Groshans used a big leg kick to get start his load and when he was on time it didn’t hinder him, instead helping him generate more power. But there were instances where Groshans would get out on his front side and fly open early, leaving some scouts to question whether the big leg kick would create more timing issues as he advanced against better pitching. This spring, Groshans has quieted the leg kick and improved his balance and hand path to the ball, attempting to lift the ball less frequently and has been hitting lasers the entire season. He’s also added around 10 pounds of muscle while maintaining his lean body. Groshans has an above-average arm and he’s shown good defensive actions at a number of infield positions, though most scouts believe he will eventually move to third base with a chance to be an above-average defender as he continues to fill out his frame.

Twitter Reaction

@ShiDavidi Jordan Groshans is the first high school player selected by in first round since Phil Bickford in 2013. The right-hander didn't sign and the compensatory pick the next year was used on Max Pentecost.

@thejaysnation Blue Jays select 3B Jordan Groshans at No. 12. None BA, MLB Pipeline, or Klaw have him in their top 30. He ranked No. 28 on FanGraphs' list.

@Crawford_MILB Jordan Groshans is interesting. Power from the right side, some feel for the barrel, too. Think he probably ends up at third base instead of shortstop but the bat could play there

@bnicholsonsmith  Groshans was someone "we certainly had targeted" per scouting director Steve Sanders. Could be a "middle of the lineup" hitter at the MLB level.

@bnicholsonsmith #BlueJays will see if Jordan Groshans can stick at SS. They clearly like his bat. Steve Sanders says Groshans offers “a combination of contact, of power, of plate discipline, he’s got a great feel and approach at the box. He’s able to drive the ball to all fields"

@burkegranger Some video of pick Jordan Groshans (3B/SS, Magnolia HS (TX)) from the Perfect Game All-American Classic, where he homered. Future 3B for me. Showed a lot of XBH power over the summer with wood, but comes with some swing-and-miss. #MLBDraft.

@ScottyMitchTSN #BlueJays amateur scouting director Steve Sanders on Jordan Groshans: “Both offensively and defensively, he brings tools to the table, and somebody we believe that has the potential to be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter at the major-league level and impact the lineup."

12. Jordan Groshans, ss, Magnolia HS (Texas) - one of the best performers on the circuit last summer, extreme bat speed and RH pop, likely a 3B/LF long term but the hitting tools are extremely impactful. #MLBDraft

2nd round - 52nd overall - Griffin Conine, Duke - OF. Bats Left Throws Right - 6-foot-1, 200 pounds - Born July 11, 1997 - Pick Value $1.4 million Scouting Report

Has similar upside as his father Jeff who appeared in two All-Star Games and won two World Series in a 17-year career. After playing sparingly and going homerless as a freshman in 2016, he broke out with 13 home runs last spring and led the Cap Cod League with nine last summer and was named the Cape's top prospect. Despite a rough junior season, he's still one of the better power hitters in the draft, capable of driving the ball to all fields thanks to his bat speed and the loft he generates with his left-handed swing. There are concerns about his propensity to swing and miss as he tried to lift nearly every pitch out of the park. With his power potential and solid arm strength, Conine fits the right field profile. He can flash average run times but hasn't showed that kind of speed this spring. Even with modest quickness, he's a sound defender on the outfield corners.

Twitter Reaction

@CanuckBBPlus With the 52nd overall pick the @BlueJays select Griffin Conine. The Jays love sons of former pros.

@CollinHuguley Duke OF Griffin Conine, who just throttled Georgia in the #AthensRegional, has been selected in the second round of the MLB Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. 52nd overall.

@BlueJays draft Duke's Griffin Conine. Son of Jeff Conine. He hit two homers today to help send the Blue Devils to supers. He's got massive power.

Shaun Kernahan @ShaunKernahan I have never been a fan of Griffin Conine. He really got hot at the end of the year for the @DukeBASE but there are too many holes in his game for me @BlueJays

Griffin Conine's day just got even better ... three dingers in helping #Duke into Super Regionals. Now, he just got picked by the @BlueJays with the 52nd overall pick.

@JasonAtTheGame Griffin Conine mashed in the Cape Cod league. Struggled at Duke in Jr. year. Looked bored at times. Got himself in trouble by trying to sell out and launch everything

@Crawford_MILB Griffin Conine could be excellent value for the Blue Jays. Had some issues this spring, but when he's at his best showed a chance to hit for average and power. Just a matter of getting that version as a professional consistently.

Love this pick for the . Griffin Conine (RF, Duke Univ.) was a projected top 10 pick coming into the season. Stumbled out of the gate and K'd a bunch, but had a good second half. .278/.402/.611 w/ 18 HR.

2018 MLB Draft - Day 1 | 106 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#359131) #
Looking at 4 mocks (Law, FG, MLB, CBS)

All agreed on 1st 3 picks. 3 mocks have Singer @4, Callis/Mayo have Madrigal.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#359132) #
Callis/Mayo nailed it - Madrigal goes 4.
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#359134) #
Brady Singer is apparently falling - I wonder if he signed papers to allow the Jays to redraft him or is that no longer required.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#359135) #
I think the permission rule still applies.

Callis/Mayo nail 5 as well - Reds take India.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#359136) #
India off the boards with the Reds getting another young 3rd basemen.

Callis/Mayo are perfect though 5, is Swaggerty the guy?
finch - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#359139) #
Common Carter Stewart or Nolan Gorman!
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#359140) #
The Pipeline boys run is finished . Kelenic at 6 to the Mets.

Weathers 7 to the Padres.

Will the Braves take Stewart at 8 as per Law? or they sticking to Gorman?
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#359141) #
Stewart is off the board, I can't believe Singer makes it to the Jays does he? I gotta think Singer, Liberatore and Winn are the next three picks.

I think its Swaggerty or Gorman at this point for the Jays.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#359142) #
In a cruel twist AA sticks a knife in heart of the Stewart dreamers. Law on a roll now with 3 in a row.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#359143) #
Go Winn Go
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#359144) #
AA picks a hard throwing HS arm. I like it. That is his MO. Live and die by it.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#359145) #
A's take a QB at 10 - a lot earlier than anyone had him.
greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#359146) #
Liberatore, Gorman, Winn, Singer ... or someone else?
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#359147) #
Swaggerty to the Pirates
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#359148) #
I wouldn't mind a HS arm, but I just can't see the Jays pulling the trigger on one.
Marlow - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#359149) #
Why is Singer dropping? Can the Jays pick him or are they prohibited?
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#359150) #
I think Liberatore would be a home run, while Singer would fit into the Vlad/Bo Timeline of contention - I like Winn also.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#359151) #
I wonder if teams are still concerned about the failed medical from when he Jays didn't sign him.
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#359152) #
I'd be pissed if the Orioles take Liberatore, what with the Jays passing them in the final days of last season
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#359153) #
Orioles take Rodriguez.
Marlow - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#359154) #
Wow, many options. Winn/Liberatore/Singer or maybe a hitter such as Gorman/Scott?
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#359156) #
Why liberatore? Sounds like only 1-2 plus pitches without great command?
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#359157) #
Want Liberatore, expecting Gilbert
greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#359158) #
Fangraphs predicting Groshans
Paul D - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#359160) #
It's Groshans
codyla - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#359161) #
At #12, they get a guy they could've had in the 2nd Round? Yay.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#359162) #
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#359163) #
Money allocation strategy?
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#359164) #
Groshans - I hate it when they say a guy with no plus tools(same as Warmoth) - future 3B if he makes it
Gerry - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#359165) #
Most experts say Groshans is very athletic, has good pop, but his swing needs some work. Keith Law said that Tony LaCava is very good in evaluating swings and if he thinks Groshans' swing will work then Keith is a believer.
Marlow - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#359166) #
MLB prospects says that though he is a shortstop in HS, he will have to move to 3B, maybe a chance at 2B (he is 6'4", that is rather tall for a 2B). Maybe he will replace Vladdy at 3B if Vladdy Jr gets too slow?
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#359167) #
Well, that's underwhelming.

I guess they're thinking his power is better than advertised.
Sherrystar - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#359168) #
Ugly, you must not have heard. #underwhelming is the Blue Jays new hashtag.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#359169) #
He has a plus arm and plus power, I don't mind the pick. It seems that he has less swing and miss than Gorman.

It's interesting that Singer keeps dropping. His fall down the boards seems very Chris Sale.
greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#359170) #
Law was also a believer in Warmoth’s swing.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#359172) #
Law was also a believer in Warmoth’s swing.

But worried about exit velocity.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#359173) #
Sickel's really liked Groshans and thinks he was a little underrated on mock drafts heading into the draft.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#359174) #
From FG

Boom or bust type infielder. Has big raw power and a flat-planed swing that need to be reconciled.

Full Report
Groshans is a pretty volatile power-hitting prospect who currently plays shortstop on his high school team but probably ends up at third base, and maybe an outfield corner, at maturity. A portion of the industry would also like to smooth out Groshans' swing, but he's shown natural bat control and has the strength in his hands to do damage even if he doesn't time his stride well. This was evident last summer in the PG All American game when Groshans tomahawked a 95mph fastball off the Western Metal Supply building at Petco. There's some swing and miss risk here, which is particularly troubling if you don't like Groshans' hands and think he ends up in right field, but the tools package is electric and he could be selected in the middle of round 1 and probably doesn't get out of the comp round.
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#359175) #
Sickels's like everybody
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#359176) #
Groshans' swing certainly isn't pretty.  I hope that it is effective nonetheless.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#359177) #
"he could be selected in the middle of round 1"

Well, good to hear that this wasn't entirely out of left field at least.
Mylegacy - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#359178) #
I`m delighted (almost). We and the A`s have both signed guys who are ranked a lot lower than where they went. The A`s guy picked 9th is ranked 36. Our guy ranked 31st was taken in the 11 position.

This (should) mean we`ve a below slot deal with him and we`ll have some dosh to throw at some long shots later.

I also like the HS picks.

Time for a scotch. Single malt, of course.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#359179) #
These are the tweets I was looking forward to:

Carlos Collazo @CarlosACollazo
Cole Winn was one of the best high school players in the country this season. Extremely consistent. He was the most impressive pitcher at the NHSI as well. Great feel to adjust in-game as well. I think that's a great pick for Texas at 15.

JJ Cooper @jjcoop36
15. Rangers. Cole Winn. Cant imagine this draft turning out better for the Rangers. What a steal to get Winn at 15. Dominated all comers this spring facing incredibly upper-level competition start after start. Was great at NHSI, was great at Boras, was great in every start.

I'm sad.
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#359180) #
Groshans vs H Danner? I see a similarity in age at least. I am going to follow their development to see the progression.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#359181) #
Seems like the type of guy who could have been picked later, gone to college and signed in the top 5.

Now, I'm expecting a pitcher in round 2.

sam - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#359182) #
I don't mind the pick. One would have to think that he's not going to get slot, which would be beneficial for us. I know his swing looks flat, but the mechanics look good in terms of getting his hands to the baseball and hitting it hard.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#359183) #
Tell me about Groshans. Underslot?
Kiley McDaniel
8:23 If you squint it looks like a young Donaldson, but a long road to turn into that guy, some contact risk with the hitting mechanics geared for power
greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#359184) #
An athletic third baseman who plays the position well, hits for power (and, ideally, has some on-base skills), is a decent/adequate base runner, and has good makeup would seem to be a good fit for the Jays and the RC -- if he develops as hoped.
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#359185) #
Very happy if Groshans becomes as good as Donaldson.
greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#359186) #
And bats right, I meant to add.
greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#359187) #
Fangraphs draft chat:

9:03 Who the hell is the guy the jays picked

Eric A Longenhagen
9:03 Power-hitting infielder
Nigel - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#359188) #
That's a funky swing. I do like the thought process though. Far better than college pitchers where opinion is divided if they project as starters or relievers (Harris and Zeuch) or college position players with supposedly high floors and low ceilings (Warmoth).
greenfrog - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#359189) #
Hopefully the Jays will pay him around $2-3m and use the surplus cash to help acquire some interesting talent in later rounds.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#359191) #
Well I hope Groshans hits more like the last guy taken with power and questionable mechanics in Bichette and less like the last time the Jays took a HS third basemen in Kevin Ahrens. This is a big test for the Jays scouting and development department.
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#359192) #
From pick # 6 the predictions fell apart.

Shane Mcclanahan is still available. Now into the 20's picking.

I have no choice but to respect the FOs of almost every team.

Some players can go back to college others cannot.

Round #2 is a protected pick. Gamble away. The players and teams will gamble.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#359193) #
Seems like he mostly played shortstop.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#359194) #
How DARE you bring up the cursed name of Kevin Ahrens!?!?!
Richard S.S. - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#359195) #
The Jays have been getting good to great quality with all their picks. Until a Player shows he cannot play Shortstop, a Team will give a Player every chance to play the position (remember Jeter). I like this pick, as I was very sure they were picking a Hitter with their first pick if their pitcher was gone.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#359196) #
I'm not going to pretend that I know anything about Groshans, but from what I have been reading, I like the pick better than the Warmoth pick a year ago. Groshans has good size and power potential, but most importantly he's so young that there is development time for him. I'm not mad at the Warmoth pick, he still might turn into something useful, but high floor/low ceiling or jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none types are very underwhelming with first round picks. Groshans seems to be a nice balance between picking for perceived upside while not going with someone too raw. The Jays have more than enough time to work on his swing or any other adjustments he needs to make.
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#359197) #
I like Siegler- nice swing from both sides of the plate, good arm and quite a presence. 
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#359198) #
The 2007 draft was supposed to be a game changer for the Jays. I really had high hopes for Kevin Ahrens the next Chipper Jones, and Justin Jackson the next Jose Reyes. That optimism faded very quickly.
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#359199) #
I too thought highly of the 2007 draft. Hope anyway. But why did he stop at pick #30?
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#359200) #
I like Casas' swing as well.  I do not want to like the Yankees' and Red Sox' picks, but there you go. 
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#359201) #
I am neutral about the Jays pick but I like the picks of our division rivals better especially TB with Liberatore whom I might have taken at #1 & KC with Singer @ 18 off to a great start with the rebuild.
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#359202) #
Mississ-uaga?  In Canada, Rob, it's u after a.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#359203) #
After seeing how it played out I think Singer and Liberatore likely threw out very big dollar figures such that only teams with multiple picks could afford. I expect KC and Tampa to punt some picks to be able to afford those two.

Essentially the only really high upside guy we had a chance at without punting picks was probably Winn.
smcs - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#359204) #
The 2007 draft was supposed to be a game changer for the Jays.
Between Donaldson, Price, Cecil, Arencibia & Revere, the Jays probably have the most bWAR from the 2007 draft, which is to say that maybe we shouldn't worry so much about who the Jays have drafted today.
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#359206) #
Regarding big bonus demands, I'm with AA's philosophy, draft the player if you like him, make the best offer and if it doesn't work out, you get next year's pick - don't let the demands scare you off - I'd have drafted Liberatore if he was at the top of my board even if he had a high bonus demand.
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#359207) #
Have to say I'm impressed with TB's first 3 selections.
85bluejay - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#359208) #
Tristan Pompey has certainly fallen, doubt the Jays take him @ 52
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#359209) #
The top 50 pitchers as determined by the Major League Baseball Scouting Bureau can voluntarily submit MRI's. If they won't or teams don't like what they see, that also may well cause them to slip down draft boards.
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#359210) #
Conine? We always party like it's 1999.

I like this one better.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#359211) #
Griffen Conine was not a surprise pick in the second round for the Jays, as they seem to draft guys who hit well with wood bats and also bloodline players. Huge power with huge swing and miss.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#359212) #
Jays do love drafting sons of former players.
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#359213) #
Have the Jays partnered with 23andme or to find a new market inefficiency?
jerjapan - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#359214) #
2nd round OF with big swing and miss?  Hope we develop him better than we did JB Woodman. 
Glevin - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 04:45 AM EDT (#359217) #
I don't know much about these players and nobody here really does so I can't get too upset or happy. In general though, I don't like taking high school pitchers early. Their failure rate is enormous (See Bill James and Rob Neyer studies among others) and they don't actually have any more upside than college pitchers. Groshans was listed more in the 20s and 30s but the difference between around pick 10 and pick 30 was very little. For example, Fangraphs has picks 13-42 as all 45 FV. Conine was supposed to be a top-10 pick going into the year so maybe the Jays can fix something.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#359218) #
Jeff Conine actually had a higher strikeout rate than Woodman in their junior years in college. However the bigger difference between the two is their performance in the cape cod league against higher level competition. Woodman bombed and had a 36.69 K% which carried over to his pro career, and Conine thrived and had a still concerning but much better 22.99 K%. There is a history where Conine just needs to tone down his approach similar to Justin Smoak.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#359219) #
"Hope we develop him better than we did JB Woodman."

True, but were (and still are) Woodman's issues a PD thing or a player thing?
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#359220) #
Conine is also younger.  He had a major trough early this college year and has picked it up in the second half.  He turns 21 next month.   

In addition to being seven months older, Woodman was a centerfielder with pretty good speed.  He had swing issues all the way along.  He was a different kind of player with different issues.  I like Conine quite a bit better- he's still got a nice swing, and getting his approach right is, in my view, more a matter of maturity.  That may have already happened.  We'll see. 
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#359221) #
Well conine's line looks significantly better than Goldman's to me - more power, more walks, less babip - and he's done it for multiple years while woodman just had the one big year.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#359222) #
Goldman = woodman
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#359223) #
I've followed Woodman(#57) vs Bryan Reynolds (#59) progress since they were drafted in 2016 - will be following Groshans(#12) vs Gorman(#19) as their careers get going.

Liked the Conine pick - this FO seems to prefer the less volatile position player early in the draft as opposed to the higher attrition rate of pitchers - a contrast from AA's style - not that either is better, in the end I think execution of plan is what matters & of course PD.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#359224) #
Conine also wouldn't be the first college player to suffer from the added pressure from playing in a contract/draft year.
bpoz - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#359225) #
I am intrigued by the rules of the draft. Protected picks round 1-3 I believe. For round 4-10, sign the pick or lose the pick and the money. So you have to have an agreement in place. This is done by the area scout phoning the player and telling him that we plan on selecting you. Will you sign?

The same in rounds 11-40 for college players. I believe that would be Shapiro's strategy. The HS players that are not that highly regarded like Davis Schneider are probably also handled the same way.

Justin Maese was a 3rd round protected pick. AA and his scouting dept may have really wanted him. He was valuable as a talented young pitcher who was willing to sign under slot.
DavidtheDeuce - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#359226) #
Marlow - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#359227) #
When the Jays selected Jordan Groshans last night, my first thoughts were that this is an underslot pick.  However when we look at last year's first three picks, Logan Warmoth, Nate Pearson and Hagen Danner, these guys all signed above slot.  I remember when Warmoth and Pearson were picked, I thought they would be coming in at some discount. 

Based on last year's precedence,  the guys  we select in the first 3 rounds will likely not have much slot savings.  More likely we will have to pay overslot for them.   The Jays will likely be drafting some college seniors in rounds 4-10 to find some savings.
bpoz - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#359229) #
I too noticed the signing bonuses that last years top 3 picks got. No discount.
Our college top picks through the years never/hardly ever signed for a discount.
C Jenkins and Deck McGuire were picked before the budget and protected rounds parameters. So we chose the best player available, that we could afford. DJ Davis and Stroman in 2012 may also have been under the old system.

We chose J Harris under the new system, he got a good signing bonus but is not working out as hoped so far. We may be saying the same for Warmoth in 2 years.

Pearson however has produced 100mph strikes as advertised. So I am satisfied. It is now hoped that he can become healthy and develop his other pitches.

Anyone that believes that the draft is a crapshoot should also believe that you need to make a few gambles. That is my way. Philosophy. Strategy.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#359231) #
Our 3 top picks last year all went very close to consensus rankings, none were taken surprisingly high. Warmoth got an extra $25K bonus, basically chump change for $2.8 million. Pearson got an extra $150K.

The Jays might be totally enamoured with Groshans, drafting him much higher than projected, but it's also very possible there might be some savings.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#359232) #
From the paper this morning it seems that the Jays have been focused on Groshans for a while now. When the Jays were in Texas recently Groshans came by the Jays locker room and met Gibby and others.

When the draft went off course yesterday and players were available that were not expected to be there, my thoughts are that the Jays had already locked in on Groshans, probably agreed to the financial deal, and weren't ready or willing to switch.

aarne13 - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#359234) #
Is "good makeup" a 6th tool? It's great that the team really likes Groshans but does that mean you pass on top tier talent to overdraft a player? Heck, I would have understood if the Jays had gone after Casas or Naylor. Groshans seems pretty underwhelming (at 12) imo. I wonder if any other team had him ranked this high. I doubt that this is a signability pick, from tweets last night it didn't sound like a sure sign.
Marlow - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#359235) #
I believe when they say 'good makeup', it refers to the person's character.  Things like whether he is egotistic vs humble, being a good team mate, willing to listen to coaching, having a good work ethic, etc. 

Before AA left, he seemed to allude to that.  Having all the talent in the world does not mean anything, if you are not a good teammate or do not listen to instruction or do not work hard.
Some of the pre-draft blogs about Jordan Groshans have mentioned that he is the hardest worker on his team.  So right there, that is one of the indicators that he has that drive to succeed and likely has the 'makeup' that teams are looking for.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#359236) #
FWIW I thought that Woodman suffered from some of the worst pitch recognition skills I've ever seen. In Vancouver, he took some of the worst swings I have ever seen in professional baseball. I've been wondering whether the next area in statistical development will be in trying to decipher the reason for a high K% (poor pitch recognition, slow bat speed, poor hitting mechanics, etc.).
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#359237) #
Marlow I'm not sure being humble is better than being arrogant for a pro athlete.

But I agree the one overriding "makeup" factor is Work Ethic and Ambition. The drive to make yourself and everyone around you the best you and they can be. An actual love for practice, not just a dutiful practicer.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#359241) #
I think it just seems that the Jays are big fans of the summer showcase when top talent plays top talent. They also seem to prioritize hitting the ball hard and feel for hitting over mechanics and athletic raw tools.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#359246) #
Thanks Nigel - this is what I was alluding to in my response re: Woodman and player development. PD can help in some areas, but pitch recognition is totally up to the player. And that may be the number 1 reason even seemingly good hitting prospects fail.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#359247) #
Adam Kloffenstein Rank 43 we draft him at spot 88.

Texas H.S., RHP, 6'5" 220 "may be difficult to sign away from Texas Christian."
Mylegacy - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#359250) #
Tristan Pompey drafted one after Kloffenstein at 89. You may have heard of him.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#359260) #
Round 4. Spot 116 Ranked 85

Sean Wymer, Junior, Texas Christian,RHP, 6'1" 190

Interesting Scouting Grades: Fastball, Curveball, Slider and Control ALL 55! Changeup 50. OVERALL: 45????????

How is that possible?
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#359273) #
Christopher Bed seems to be the first stretch for signability.
Thomas - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#359279) #
Gerry, when you refer to the draft going off-course, who do you have in mind? The obvious one is Liberatore sliding and Kyler Murray going to the A's, but who else is there? Grayson Rodriguez is the only other one coming to mind. Everyone else I thought it was reasonable to project them going in the Top 11 picks.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#359280) #
I understood that Gerry was referring to the run on position players over Liberatore, Singer and Winn. 

It now looks to me (Gerry may agree) that it wasn't so much that they were caught flat-footed, but rather they had a pre-determined plan with both Groshans and Kloffenstein which they preferred. 
hypobole - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#359282) #
To me, it sounds more like a predetermined agreement(s) the Jays adhered to.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#359303) #
Yes, Mike G has it with the addition of Gorman too. Basically the pre draft forecasts had most of those four players being gone before the Jays picked. The more high profile ones, like Liberatore, might never have been expected to reach the Jays. The front office reads these pre draft forecasts too.

My opinion is that the Jays did a deal with Groshans, and probably a double deal with Groshans and Kloffenstein, and were so locked into that deal that they were unwilling to switch to maybe a higher ranked player at the last minute.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#359312) #
I don't see the hype with liberatore, and I'm not certain that any of singer Winn or liberatore are in a different class of prospect than Kloff.
scottt - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#359321) #
What struck me was that there is nobody signed by AA in the top 50 WAR players.
Not even guys like Thor.

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