Only a few things of note:

Larry Walker continues to look right on the edge of making the Hall of Fame.

I am very patiently waiting for BB's prospect list.

30-odd days until Spring Training.

Gab,how many if you count the odd ones too?

And the even ones?

The Jays have been fairly generous with the arbitration eligible players.
No disgruntled vets in the clubhouse this spring.

Still too early to talk about spring competitions.
Still lots of chances to pick up someone if they feel like it.

Ryu is bringing lots of respect to the team.
I'm seeing that in Yankees and Orioles forums.

Is Rogers still feeling fallout from the last Stroman arby? It's weird that an organization pretty much universally accused of penny-pinching would spend three million dollars over arby estimates.

I too am waiting for the prospect list. 15 of my top 20 are pitchers. Only Romano is a reliever. The least experienced are Manoah, Kloff and Pardinho who are in my top 10 and in that order. To me none has any edge for arriving first to the Majors. If healthy AA in 2020 is not out of the question IMO. None have struggled so far. SWR, Kloff and Pardinho are all the same baseball age. 19 years old for the 2020 season.

ugly, this is your forum, bro.

Nobody hates the Jays spending as much as you do. What's your take?

Do we have predictions on which MILB teams our top prospects are going to end up on?

Here's mine, some are hope more than predictions.

AAA
SP Pearson
SP Kay
SP Murphy
SP Merryweather
SP Hatch

SS Smith
C Adams

AA
SP Woods Richards
SP Murray
SP Castillo

C Kirk

A+
SP Manoah
SP Luciano

SS Groshans
C Moreno
RF Connine
2B Lopez

A-
SP Pardhino
SP Kloffenstein
SP Williams

3B Hiraldo
SS Jimenez
SS Martinez

Is Rogers still feeling fallout from the last Stroman arby? It's weird that an organization pretty much universally accused of penny-pinching would spend three million dollars over arby estimates.

I think most are waiting for the dust to settle before drawing any conclusions. The Ryu signing was exciting, and hopefully a sign.

With arbitration figures firming up and a month until spring training, payroll sits at $95M, which is 20th in the league. MLB average is ~$125M and the median teams are the Braves ($132M) and the White Sox ($118M). Not surprisingly, the Yankees and Red Sox pace the league at $258M and $230M respectively, while the Rays and Orioles pull up the bottom at $87M and $80M.

Obviously, the Jays are much closer to the Rays and Orioles at this stage. I think fallout or praise will be a function of whether folks generally believe the team is spending adequately relative to where it is in its stage of development (Creeping towards 80 wins? Hopefully playoff contention in 2021?) and relative to what the team's peers are spending.

Here's a snapshot of team salaries

Oops, was perusing taxes and posted the wrong link: Same relative rankings but numbers were inflated

By A- do you mean Lansing?
I hope Vancouver has a better lineup than last year.

Chavez Young should be in AA
He might become an average centerfielder, especially when hitting from the left side.

There is a boatload of starting pitchers in the upper minors. It will be quite a battle for spots in the rotations in Buffalo, NH, and Dunedin. In addition to the above 5 for Buffalo, you have Zeuch and probably Borucki, maybe Reid-Foley, Sopko, and possibly others, depending on whether the Jays want guys like Waguespack, Pannone, Thornton in the big league bullpen or in AAA. Then you've got the guys from AA who are knocking on the Buffalo door like Diaz, Murray, Murphy, Perez and Hatch. You could arguably have 2 complete AAA rotations. They may go to some tandem starts to help resolve the situation, and injuries will thin the herd, so to speak. An important year for separating the prospects from the suspects.

I have a hope that some of the lesser bullpen options like Sam Gavigilio get pushed out by guys life SRF and Hector Perez.

Thanks Cynicalguy for your breakdown. You listed 23 players. I expect that most/half? of them are on your top 20 prospect list. And Luciano does not qualify as a prospect any more.

I have a few disagreements and others probably do also. So a good discussion could be in the works.

Who is our #9 hitter in the lineup and what does he bring to the lineup? Jansen?

I just read Zeuch and his AAA no hitter again. Also saw some high light video. It should not take long for him to adjust to the juiced ball if it is used in 2020.

I expect him to be in the Majors early in 2020 if he is healthy.

I am probably irrationally excited about watching the Jays minor league teams this year. Future Blue Jays is doing a series on probable minor league rosters and the teams are stacked. For example, they have Dunedin with SWR, Manoah, Wincowski, Groshans, Lopez, Moreno, Conine, and more. That is a super exciting team and these are a bunch of players I'd expect to see up starting in 2021.

scottt "By A- do you mean Lansing?"

Yes A- on my post meant Lansing.

bpoz, haven't thought about the top 20, this was more how likely the minor league teams would be constructed with players who can impact the future MLB team.

Just checking Int'l signings from Aug to present. I need to keep up.

Going backwards. Oct Darwin Cruz RHP.

Aug Victor Arias CF signed on his birthday Aug 24. He was born 2003. Would that be a coincidence?

Gaviglio was amazing in the first half and faded later on.
That's also the story of the starting pitching.
Font was only good in the opener role, which they don't plan on having.
I'm still keeping my eyes on Aumont.

" signed on his birthday Aug 24. He was born 2003. Is this a coincidence?"

No, it's not, bpoz. By international free agent rules the player must be 16 years old and 17 by September 1 of the next year.

Thanks ISLAND BOY.

I took a look at the Future Blue Jays site for 2020 Vancouver, Lansing and Dunedin rosters. The rosters looked reasonably right. Projections are hard to do.

I expect the AA and AAA rosters to be done in the next few days. The pitching guess work is going to be extremely difficult IMO. We have a huge quantity of pitchers that are good with great stuff and good ones with polish like Zeuch and J Murray.

Murry had an incredible 2019. I am awaiting his AAA promotion if he is promoted because I would like to see how he responds to the juiced ball. As I understand it the juiced ball causes harder contact and is also harder to throw strikes with. I am guessing that this will benefit Murray.

What about Winder Garcia? Where do we think he will begin in 2020? Vancouver might be a bit aggressive but not out of the question considering his one start there at the end of last season. He is raw, small and young but has the potential to surprise positively imo.

The pitching will depends on who makes the team and who doesn't.
There are several pitchers on minor league contract who are there only to try to make the team.

My predictions for my top 20:

MLB Toronto
SP Anthony Kay (#6 on starting depth chart in my mind, and I'll take the odds of someone ahead of him not being good to go opening day.)
CF Anthony Alford (Yes, in my top 20. Yes, could well be gone before opening day.)

AAA Buffalo
SP Nate Pearson
SP TJ Zeuch (possibly in Toronto bullpen)
SP Patrick Murphy

AA New Hampshire
SP Maximo Castillo
SP Joey Murray
C Alejandro Kirk

A+ Dunedin
SP Simeon Woods Richardson
SP Alek Manoah
SP Eric Pardinho (a stretch but I think it makes sense)
C Gabriel Moreno
RF Griffin Conine
2B Otto Lopez
SS Jordan Groshans (a stretch, could easily be in Lansing)

A Lansing
SP Adam Kloffenstein
2B Miguel Hiraldo
SS Leonardo Jimenez

Short Season / Extended Spring Training
SP Kendall Williams
SS Orelvis Martinez

There are a few big questions for me.
Will Smith be promoted to AAA despite his terrible 2019?
Can he turn it around there?
Will Kirk continue to hit? Will he be able to stay behind the dish?
Will Groshans have a full productive year?

It's going to be an interesting year both in Toronto and in the farm.
And it's important to remember that it often ends with heartbreak.

On Twitter, the Jays have sent around a bunch of cards that makes it look like they are changing their colours a bit. I am OK with that as long as it doesn't go into that early 2000's grey hat area. (It looks like powder blue which would be similar to 80's teams but we'll see).

Off topic, but wow. Stiff penalty for the Astros. Boom

Luhnow and Hinch suspended a year.

now do the red sox.

Lose their next 2 1sts and 2nds.

fined $5m.

now do red sox.

Loss of 1st and 2nd in 20 and 21, $5 million fine

Sounds like Cora will be suspended for his time with the Astros too.

And then he and the bullpen coach went over to boston the next year and did the same thing.

Cora might get a lifetime ban.


Put a giant asterisk next to both those titles.

Would anyone on here not trade a World Series title for those sanctions?

Fake titles.

Black Sox.

WS title doesn't mean much when it's been proven that you cheated to achieve it. I would not have done it.

The reasoning behind the fact Luhnow and Hinch only got one year bans is a little clearer when you read the report, although I still think harsher punishment was warranted.

I will be disappointed if Cora isn't given a lifetime ban at the conclusion of the investigation into the Red Sox, given he was an active participant and proponent of the scheme, as opposed to Hinch, who had knowledge of it and failed to stop it in a meaningful way.

Luhnow and Hinch have been dismissed. 

Astros owner opened his press conference by firing Luhnow and Hinch.

This is a great day for the sport, showing that it can be policed effectively and that MLB won't stand for cheaters. The follow up firing is also great for baseball, unfortunately for the cheaters. Now I agree they just need Cora to be banned for life and the message will be sent and a new precedent set under Rob Manfred.

If I had to guess (if there is something to guess) - Rob Manfred told Astros owner he either will be penalized himself with a bigger fine or suspension either him or some other form if that is not permissible...or option B..."you fire your GM and manager"

This is a great day for the sport, but it's not like the leadership was being proactive - this is a reaction, and one they had to make. 

It's not like two of the top franchises in the game just went rogue.  This is the culture of the sport - steroids, cheating, manipulation of labour in the minor leagues, extorting cities for tax money for the super rich, etc, etc. 

Ruthless capitalism in action.  MLB is more NFL than NBA when it comes to being progressive. 

I don't consider a sport that is run by the players and allows them to basically force trades and do whatever they want to be progressive. I see what is meant by calling th NBA progressive but when it goes to extremes, it becomes chaos rather than progression. The NBA is also suspecting of rigging lotteries and influencing officials.

That said, baseball certainly could become more progressive and hopefully this and more rule changes coming, will be a giant step in that direction.

Give them all earpieces.

it's hard to see how [Beltran] can avoid some consequences.

Managing the Mets isn't punishment enough?

In a recently concluded interview on MLB network, Peter Gammons said that team replay room should be far from clubhouse and that one room should be shared by 2 competing teams. He also believes that Luhnow will never get another job in baseball.

talk among other baseball execs is that they got off lightly but that may not be the case as they have likely become pariahs....so too will Cora.

I don't consider a sport that is run by the players and allows them to basically force trades and do whatever they want to be progressive.

I've always thought that the extent to which basketball is run by the players is entirely a function of the number of players. There simply aren't as many basketball players on a team or in the league, which gives the ones who are there a larger share of the power.

Anyway. It's curious that by far the biggest scandal in the major sports leagues during at least the last quarter century or so, one with a clear and direct impact on the integrity of the competition - I would say it's a much bigger deal than PEDs or sign stealing, or blackballing athletes - belongs to the NBA. And it seems to have just disappeared down the memory hole.

Glad to see the harsh punishments, and I hope the red Sox get something similar if they were, in fact, up to something similar. Among the many concerns, such as tainted titles and player records, slapping down AL powerhouses helps the Jays. Weakening them long term and maybe causing some organizational chaos? Least any team doing this deserves.

Altuve should be stripped of his MVP since he cheated.

The Carlos Beltran angle is interesting.

He was the driving force behind the scheme but went unpunished because he's a player.
Except that now he's a coach.
Also, last year he was a special adviser to Cashman.
He was supposed to be helping them read opposing pitchers.
The Yankees incidentally had a monster year in which a large number of players had career years.

If they didn't do that to Braun's mvp, Altuve isn't losing his either. I think a big historical stink mark on the Astros is actually pretty good. "Cancel culture", for good and ill, is a thing right now, and this is the type of thing that even the insulated world of sports will remember, I think.

On road trips, he often spent traveling time watching video of the
opposing team’s pitchers and hitters on his iPad and then shared his
written notes with teammates and coaches.

Magpie, I hate to admit this, but I had to look up what NBA scandal you were talking about, and I assume you mean the ref that was gambling?  There are loads of scandals in all sports, but that's the only NBA scandal I can recall with a direct impact on games. 

But that's one guy, to the best of my knowledge?  I assume that the Stros and the Sox are the tip of the iceberg in MLB. 

PeterG, as a Raptors fan, I hate it when a player forces a trade ... but as a life-long unionist, I love seeing the worker take agency.  Workers in the NBA have more agency than in other sports, (although as Magpie notes, that's definitely related to roster size). 

And they sometimes use that agency to advance progressive issues in a way that players in other sports can't compete with. 

scottt

I have to ask: why do you insist on referring to managers as “coaches”? You do so consistently, it seems.

I hate cheating of any kind, whether it's in sports, games, relationships, anything. Good to see some harsh penalties handed out, especially the draft picks. I hope Cora is banned. Would actually like to see some penalty for any players who were involved in the cheating as well. Some of the Yankees' hitters had numbers that looked out of line last year - let's see how those outliers do this year. Hopefully, any teams who were cheating will be disinclined to do so now.

I assume you mean the ref that was gambling?

Donaghy wasn't just gambling, of course. He was making calls on the court that would help his chances of cashing in on the bets he was making (as opposed to, you know, calling the game fairly). He was also sharing what he was doing with some bookies. (One of whom may, or may not, have had mob connections.)

Well, one never addresses a manager as such. It's always "Hey Coach" or whatever nickname is in use.
Also, the manager is technically the "head coach".
I'll say "the coaches" instead of "the coaching staff".
Sorry about that.

Doesn't if feel like Luhnow and Hinch were fired for drawing penalties on the Astros/owner, rather than for cheating?
I supposed the sanctions have to be announced before the contracts could be voided.

I don't think Luhnow and Hinch were fired for the cheating as much as they were fired for the awful culture they developed. Trading for Osuna, Taubman's comments and the cheating all add up to something I would be completely embarrassed about.

What they have achieved is substantial, but how they achieved it was deplorable. The what and how must go together to rank somebody's overall performance.

Yeah, Crane finally got tired of having to give embarrassing press conferences.

I don't think it seems that Luhnow and Hinch were fired because they cost the Astros draft picks and Crane fines, or that they were fired for the culture they developed (independently of the cheating). The fine is a relatively small amount for any major league owner and at least half of it (that's a guess) would be offset by the unpaid suspensions handed to Hinch and Luhnow.

Plus, as I said before, would you trade two picks at the end of the first and second round for a World Series championship? I would without any hesitation. The Jays traded a Hall of Fame calibre second baseman for one that they may have won anyway and I don't think any Jays fan regrets that deal.

With regards to the culture, I don't see any details in the report that specifically speak to the culture of the baseball operations department. Manfred obviously found very problematic elements in the front office, but he doesn't detail them in any meaningful way, aside from the many mistakes the Astros made in handling the Taubman situation. And Luhnow was allowed to keep his job after he lied to and misled the public about what occurred in that incident.

It's possible Manfred shared additional details with Crane he didn't make public, but I've seen no reporting suggesting that's the case. Furthermore, reports have been out there for a while that suggested that the Astros were a somewhat toxic organization to work for. I don't believe Crane could have been entirely blind to these reports or he's directly comparable to Luhnow's wilful blindness about the cheating (which Manfred seems to suggest isn't even accurate in any case).

I think Crane was probably aware of the toxic culture in the Astros front office, but perhaps not the extent of it. And I do think it may have cemented his decision to fire Luhnow, but I think Luhnow and Hinch were fired primarily due to the cheating and so the Astros could cast themselves as a clean organization going forward.

I didn't see anything to suggest that Hinch was a part of the toxic culture in the Baseball Operations department and I think the general word about Hinch is much more positive than it is about Luhnow. If it was about the culture alone, it would have been easy enough for Crane to only fire Luhnow, as the report even states that Hinch tried twice to destroy the cheating machine (the report does a good job of explaining why this was insufficient given what Hinch knew and the position he held) and Crane could have said that Hinch deserved a second chance after his suspension concluded.

Thomas, I think trading a future star second baseman for David Cone by the Jays to help win a World Series is an entirely different thing than cheating to win one like the Astros. I would certainly feel different about the Jays titles if they had stooped to Houston's level of duplicity.

I saw Steve Philips on T.V. this morning and he made two good points. 1) Commissioner Rob Manfred had warned all MLB teams, after the Red Sox had been caught using an Apple watch to cheat in 2017, that he would come down heavily on anyone cheating by stealing signs electronically. The Astros basically ignored him by doing so before and after his warning.

2) Jeff Luhnow denied any knowledge of the sign stealing scheme but how would he not have known of the purchase and installation of the centerfield camera and monitors placed by the dugout runway ?

I'm surprised at how many people consider this to be severe.

I dont.

Even if Cora gets a lifetime ban. If theres nothing on the players, if theres nothing in the record books, then it will always be remembered as "but they still won the world series".

I said after there was no real punishment with the Mitchell report that we would be back again in 20 years. Turns out it was 10.

In both cases the players keep their stats and their money, the teams (fully aware of the cheating) keep their money and titles, and the central cast save for 1 fall guy (canseco/cora) will probably still get into the HOF "Beltran, like Bonds, was a HOFer before the cheating began..."

To me this amounts to a slap on the wrist that, if anything, will encourage future cheating.

We will be back to a major cheating scandal again in 10 years.

It seems one of the reason Beltran escaped punishment is because he admitted to everything privately after denying any knowledge publicly. He's like the main witness at trial with an immunity deal.

I was called out once for calling Marty Peavy, manager of AAA Syracuse back in the day, "coach". To be clear, Peavy called me out on it. The players usually say "Skip".

Interesting. To call the manager “coach” has always seemed to me a carry-over from hockey culture. “Manager” is, after all, a title. It’s what he’s hired as. His role and responsibilities are distinct from those of the coaches. (He’s not, technically the head coach.) Is a puzzlement.

Agreed - not severe enough. It's only coaches / organization. No incentive for ANY player to stop cheating. Plus, as stated - they all get to keep their stats, arbitration awards/contracts resulting from those stats, etc..

I mean, after some of the non-baseball corporate scandals we've had, it *IS* nice to see some higher-ups get some kind of punishment, instead of only foot soldiers, but...

Nolan Arenado contract runs through his age 34 season when he should still be productive(has opt out after 2021) - I'd be in favour of the Jays making a bid for him.

I think if you get caught cheating you can't be seen to have won. That just seems baseline to me. The World Series title should be vacated and players should be punished in as much as they are implicated in the scandal. Isn't this just logical?

Arenado contract actually runs through his age 35 season but I'm still game.

With the Houston situation likely to stay ugly for awhile, if I was the Jays GM I'd be making a good list of Houston's players from majors to lowest minors and getting ready to do some trade negotiations once a new GM is named.  Odds are the new person will want to  make a mark quickly and if prepared any team could take advantage and get something really good at a good price.  Yuli Gurriel would be tempting to grab if the price is right - 1B/3B/2B with a 126 OPS+ last year, 115 lifetime, entering age 36 seasons so should be reasonable in cost, would fill in 1B nicely.  Not a free agent until after 2022.  Makes just $8.4 mil in 2020.   And yes, he is Gurriel Jr's older brother.  Of course, most pitchers on their staff are worth digging into as well.  Depends on what the new GM wants to do - rebuild or try to stay as a contender for a few more years.

The World Series title should be vacated and players should be punished in as much as they are implicated in the scandal.

I know the NCAA has vacated championships, and it's one of my core beliefs that if the NCAA does it - don't do it. It seems pointless to me anyway. I watched the World Series, I know who won the games. They cheated, it worked. We'd all like it if sports could be better than the real world, and we certainly intend to hold it to a higher standard. It's worth trying. Good luck with that.

If you want to claw back the $438,000 winner's share, you might be on to something. But you'd probably have to do it across the board. I expect it would be insanely difficult to determine any individual's level of culpability. And it wouldn't make all that much difference to Justin Verlander or Jose Altuve anyway. It would teach Derek Fisher a lesson, but surely that's just collateral damage.

I'd like to hear from Brian "play-the-game-the-right-way" McCann. Hello? Brian? You out there?

Island Boy, I would also feel differently about Toronto`s World Series titles if they were found to have engaged in a clear and unambigious form of cheating during those seasons. However, that`s a moral issue.

The point I was trying to illustrate (perhaps not well) was that in terms of a pure cost-benefit analysis, the penalties on the Astros don`t seem sufficient.

If I assume a genie told me Toronto could win the World Series in 2020, but it would mean Montoyo and Atkins couldn`t coach/GM in 2021. And if the same genie told me the Jays would waste their first 2 draft picks in 2021 and 2022 because they were "catfished" by online profiles of fake prospects they proceeded to draft (in two straight years!), I would say, sure, that's a tradeoff I'd take in a second. That's why I compared to the Kent trade. That's arguably a higher price (the odds were probably less than 50% the four players picked by Houston would match Kent's career WAR), but I have no second thoughts about the trade. Similarly, the price the Cubs paid for Chapman seemed unreasonably high at the time and still does, but I've never heard a Cubs fan take any issue with that deal.

To go back to the moral issue, if the end result was simply to say that the 2017 World Series does not have the same moral equivalence as other World Series victories, the Report could simply have concluded that and failed to issue any penalty. Of course, while you and I may say that imaginary asterisk carried weight, many fans wouldn't care, at least based on the fact many Houston fans are portraying the Astros as being unfairly singled out when rumours abound about other teams using other forms of illegal surveillance or sign-stealing.

I think the deterrent factor is pretty good here.

the guys in charge now have their careers maybe ended and at least stained forever. that has to be a pretty good deterrent to anyone thinking of doing this kind of thing again.

They cheated, it worked.
Well, we agree on that part.

Thanks Gerry.

I can imagine that. Skipper is a bit of an American thing though. Baseball too, obviously, but still.
In Little Leagues you have the coach and the assistant coaches.
It's similar in schools.
Chris Pritchett is the the Head Coach of the UBC thunderbird.
Tim Corbin is the head baseball coach of the Vanderbilt Commodores.
He's referred simply as the coach of Vanderbilt.

A. J. Hinch's wiki entry says that he's an American baseball coach.
He's a manager only while he's employed, like being a CEO.
He's still a coach while he's out of a job, like being an executive.

At any rate, I'll try to use manager.

The jobs of men like John McGraw and Connie Mack involved far more than a contemporary field manager's portfolio. They didn't just manage the game - they managed the franchise. They were their own GMs, their own directors of scouting, and generally answered directly to the owner (himself in Mack's case.) They made trades, they signed prospects, they travelled the backroads looking for talent. The modern general manager is a later development - Ed Barrow in New York and Branch Rickey in St. Louis.

would you trade two picks at the end of the first and second round for a World Series championship? I would without any hesitation.

And the corporation that signs the cheques probably would as well. But what if you're Ross Atkins or Charlie Montoyo? You know that nothing actually guarantees a championship. You also know that if you're caught your career in baseball is probably over forever. They're likely to be a little more reluctant.

I kind of love this Donaldson to Twins arrangement. It's completely fitting for both sides who have an "us vs the world" mentality that I love. He'll be making less than he did in arbitration and he's the perfect piece to finalize their position player roster.

Madbum would have been the perfect match.

Bonus Points: Alex Cora fired

After the 2017 Red Sox were caught with Apple watches, MLB specifically warned teams against this sort of thing, and who would be held responsible. Sure, an owner would agree to the punishments for managers and front office personnel in trade for a title, but as already mentioned, the managers and front office guys surely wouldn't. Well, the baseball guys won't anyway - an MBA who happens to run a baseball team probably wouldn't care if they couldn't get another MLB job so much. This is a strong precedent. I'd love to punish the players involved too, but MLB said who they would go after, and then they did. People have been minimizing the $5 million fine, but it was literally the largest allowable (a rule set up by the group it applies to, in the finest tradition of self-regulation, but still), and owners have shown a willingness to pinch every penny. You don't get to be stupid rich by not sweating over a few million here and there.

The Astros tainted title (and the Red Sox in 2018 is going to end up there too) is going to stick with me a lot more than most things do these days. As a kid I could remember every league and WS champ in my life pretty easily, by year. Hecjk, I could do it for every major sport.  Now I have to kind of cross-reference my way there (Ok, the Giants won the even years to start the decade, the Red Sox won a couple in there...etc.) for baseball, and hockey or football, forget it,. But the year(s) the WS champ was found to be cheating? Those are going down in ****ing history and burning themselves into the collective brains.   Cora is out in Boston now. Great! More chaos for the opposition. 

Donaldson to Twins

Bringer of Purple Rain.

Arenado for Groshand, Jansen and Gurriel...that's MLB.com's proposal for a Rockies/Jays trade.

There was nobody in the AL East chasing Donaldson.
Both the Nats and the Braves have lost MVP type third basemen.
The Twins will rake but will be looking for pitching at the deadline.

4/92M is quite a bit short of his 110M target.

I hope Boston lose some picks. Their farm system isn't great. They're not the powerhouse anymore.
It's the perfect time to hit them.
The Astros don't lose the picks, they are skipped in the draft so everybody moves up.
Effectively, the Jays 5th pick in the second round becomes the 4th pick with the associated money pool.

I am MOSTLY happy with the penalties.
The coaching staff involved were punished. Correct.

The front office staff involved were punished. Correct.

The players weren't. Correct.

The team was punished. Correct.

The punishments were all severe enough and appropriate. (The loss of draft picks is pretty steep, but they couldn't really have gone with less.)

My one complaint is that the owner basically got nothing. (The $5m fine is peanuts.) That is not okay.

My one complaint is that the owner basically got nothing. (The $5m fine is peanuts.) That is not okay.
I agree,  but it is also the MOST possible that could be assigned. Because all the owners decided to cap the amount they could be fined. It demonstrates one of the problems of self-regulation. I don't know that there's any way to change that.

Considering the size of Arenado's contract, and his age, and his distorted stats from playing in Colorado, that trade proposal would be an absolute disaster for the Blue Jays.

Arenado's contract is a lose-lose situation for the acquiring team. If he plays up to expectations, he opts out after 2 seasons. If he plays below expectations, he's owed $154M for his age 31-35 seasons. There's no way that Toronto's FO will trade multiple prospects for that type of risk.


I'm still angry that the Astros didn't have their 2017 title officially vacated. It's symbolic at this point, but it's probably the biggest punishment that you could issue to an owner. However, I expect that the Red Sox investigation impacted this decision, as they would likely have had their 2018 title vacated too and perhaps the Commissioner wasn't ready to vacate two titles in a row.

I would also bet that this wasn't just limited to the Red Sox and Astros... a full investigation could implicated A LOT of people. So I guess we just forgive and forget...

[the Arenado] proposal would be an absolute disaster for the Blue Jays

It's Tulowitzki all over again! An elite defender, but once you let the Coors air out he's just a solid complementary bat (.265/.323/.476 away from Coors.) Arenado is younger than Troy was when he came here (younger than Donaldson as well) and he's got a better health record than Troy.

Well, everyone's got a better health record than Troy.

Using road stats to figure out what a player would do away from Coors isn't very accurate. Arrenado has been a top five player in baseball for multiple years, with little to no injury history. I think it's unlikely that any trade for him will be a disaster. (Which is not to say it's a slam dunk or that the Jays should pursue it, but I think people are showing a bit too much risk aversion here).

The price seems awfully steep for Arenado who has indeed been one of the best players in baseball.  His contract doesn't seem any more favourable than Rendon's all things considered.  Rendon would cost you a 2nd round pick rather than Jansen, Gurriel and Groshans.  Yes, it may be true that Rendon wouldn't come to the great white north whether or not the royal expats eventually arrive here or not, but still...

No way I would do that proposed Arenado deal and thankfully neither would the FO.

Using road stats to figure out what a player would do away from Coors isn't very accurate.

If there's a better way to know how a guy hits outside of Coors other than how he's hit outside of Coors... I'm all ears.

There's people who think that playing regularly at high altitude also effects your year round performance including away parks. So if you take Arenado out of COL entirely these people think his challenges of playing regularly at high altitude will be eilimanted and his overall numbers would maintain or increase.

All posts on this hypothetical trade scenario I think have been uncommonly all correct and insightful and accurate even if competing views.

I would personally do that deal if he somehow agreed to remove the opt out from his contract.

I think this FO will skip this and wait for Betts next year but I don't think they have a hope in hell of signing him over the other teams that will be after him.

He'd only void his opt out if you offer him more guaranteed money.
This looks like one of AA's trade and the premise is probably that the Jays have to trade away prospects to get declining stars on bad contracts because they can't sign anyone out of free agency.
What's missed is that Arenado isn't a big name in Canada.that would sell tickets.

There's a good chance that Groshans will be better than him anyway.
Shapiro hates opt outs and player options.
Trading guys already on the team to fill a hole that doesn't really exist doesn't solve anything.

The good thing here is that the Jays can offer massive extensions to anyone that produces and is one or 2 years away from free agency and they'll have no problem trading them to make room for a prospects.

It will be interesting to see how hard Boston goes after Betts in free agency.

Maybe Solarte will once again replace Donaldson.

I don't know the first thing about Jim Crane and what type of owner he is and what degree of involvement he has with the club. However, as matter of principle, I don't have a big concern with the fact he wasn't punished beyond the fine. I think it's entirely plausible that Crane could have had no idea what was going on.

I think it's entirely implausible that Luhnow had no idea what was going on, despite his loud and toneless protestations that he is an innocent victim.

Here's something on Jim "Teflon" Crane from the NY Times back in 2011:

As Major League Baseball investigates Jim Crane’s $680 million deal to buy the Houston Astros, it will be easy for its officials to find the public information about federal crimes committed by two executives of his former company, Eagle Global Logistics, a freight-forwarding company based in Houston.

One employee pleaded guilty to adding more than $1 million in fraudulent surcharges to shipments of military cargo from Dubai to Baghdad early in the Iraq war. A second pleaded guilty to paying kickbacks to receive future business from KBR, a major contractor that was once a subsidiary of Halliburton.

In all, Eagle has paid more than $10 million to settle various federal charges, including $4 million for the phony surcharges, and $4.5 million after pleading guilty to being part of a global price-fixing conspiracy by freight forwarders. In each instance, the Justice Department issued news releases about the violations of federal law — none mentioning any complicity by Crane."

"What's missed is that Arenado isn't a big name in Canada.that would sell tickets.

There's a good chance that Groshans will be better than him anyway."

I needed a laugh. Thank you for that.

Mike, you mention wRC+ for evaluating a Colorado hitter - OK, in 2019, Arenado was 37th in mlb, between Joc Peterson and Tim Anderson. In 2018, he was 22nd, between David Peralta and Xander Bogaerts. And that's in his prime. I don't see him as a $35 million player, and I don't want to be paying him a huge salary through his declining years, until he's 36, much less give up Groshans, Gurriel and Jansen to get the right to do so.

Martin was from Montreal and did all those French interviews.
Rogers has those 2 games every year at the Big O to sell the Jays in Quebec.
Arenado is a gold glove from the NL.
Even the coworkers who watch Jays games won't know who that is.
In retrospect, the price for Donaldson wasn't very high.
The equivalent would be to trade Grichuk, a pitching prospect like SRF and one of the top guy like Hiraldo for a star outfielder.

Also, remember you have to compare Groshans in 3 to 5 years to Arenado in 3 to 5 years.
That's all that will matter.

Every fan reads media. The media would tell the casual fans what a big deal Arenado would be, just like the media told the casuals all about Ryu.

There is almost no chance that Groshans is better than Arenado. Do you mean that he'd provide more value over the life of the Arenado contract? That's possible.

Some rumours I heard yesterday were that the Rockies are looking for pitching, so even the theoretical deal mentioned by ESPN probably doesn't get it done.

I agree with Cracka about Arenado expensive contract.

Shapiro made a big deal about financial flexibility. I think that is very important to him. There is risk in total $ and # years. We all know that but We don't know the details of his understanding.

He will try for expensive players but in his comfort zone.

Shapiro also said that this is probably the only time (this off season) that they will experience so much flexibility.

Arenado is obviously a top player - a top 20-40 hitter every year, plus a top 5-20 defender every year. the latest statcast metric had him as the best IF in MLB in 2019. He's never had one of "those years" where his hitting spiked, but he's also never had anything resembling a bad year after his rookie season.

As for adjusting Rockies players, only a few similar hitters who left Colorado, because Colorado has had very few actually good hitters in their prime. Aside from Helton, who never left:
Matt Holliday had an OPS+ of 131 in Colorado, and then 133 everywhere else (until a 116 his final year, back in Colorado).
Larry Walker was at 134 the 4 years before Colorado, 147 in Colorado, and then 134 in St Louis in his twilight.
Tulowitzki is a cautionary tale, but he was so injured all the time, I won't post those numbers.
LeMahieu just had a career year after leaving, but wasn't a good hitter except for one year there. Vinny Castilla had already had an awful year in Colorado before leaving to stink elsewhere. Notorious Coors creation Dante Bichette had a peak in Colorado, but a 112 OPS+ there versus 104 the year before and after (age 37).

All of that together gives me no reason to worry about Arenado's hitting at all. Obviously with the loss of the extra PAs you get in Colorado, counting numbers go down, but it's not like he's been on any good offensive teams either.

I wouldn't trade several top youngsters and prospects for him, because his contract leaves him with very little surplus value, but he's as good a bet as anyone to crank out another 3-5 years at his established level. And as much as I usually back leaving Guerrero at 3rd for a while to see if he improves, you move him immediately if you acquire an all-star defensive player.

I'm interested, would everyone here prefer:

a) a player with the best performance on the team and top 10 overall in baseball on a fair contract

or

b) a player with top 3 performance on the team and top 25 overall in baseball on a good contract

or

c) a player with top performance on the team, league and top 3 overall in baseball on a bad contract

I get the sense or to colour the comment, the nonsense from posters that a player isn't worth it unless you have some type of excess value tied to their contract. It's called winning and putting the best players on the team. You don't win based on WAR $ value.

The team is in the best position it's been in in a long time and signing or trading for one big time player will not limit you from resigning your up and coming players.

I'm fine with fair value for a very good player- that's my take on the Ryu contract and I happily gave a thumbs up to that one.  What I don't like is taking on a contract that is fair value, and returning players with as much present value in total and much more future value (Jansen and Gurriel have as much present value as Arenado, in my view). 

I'd rather have the team where a top-25 performance in MLB was "just" top 3 on the team, so I'll go with option b. ;)

I see trading for Arenado (or someone like him) as similar to free agency. Would I happily offer Arenado the contract he has - yes! Would I do that and then also get rid of multiple players/prospects with MLB potential...ehh...maybe not. Weirdly, the Jays don't have any MLB player assets, at all, on a contract that approximates their value, except maybe Gurriel (I think that's a good contract for Toronto) and Grichuk (seems about right, but boy howdy did the downside become clear in 2019). I mean, none that anyone else would want for something like Arenado (the OF logjam of mediocrity).

Carlos Beltran is out as Mets manager.  I wonder how he'll do in the HoF voting when the time comes. 

I believe payroll flexibility got us Ryu.

I also believe that the Tulo, Martin and Morales $45-50 mil write off got us Buchholz, Richard and Shoemaker for about $10 mil. So no payroll flexibility.

For 2021 we could create payroll flexibility by having more of Tulo off the books and by C Anderson off the books. There is also Giles. Maybe Roark too.

So now we can add a good FA or try. M Stroman would be a good choice as a good FA.

They used buzzers under their shirts:

https://twitter.com/Jomboy_/status/1217886556263940098

https://twitter.com/timandsid/status/1217895028573470720

MLB is turning into a soap opera.

Three MLB teams are looking for a manager. Wonder if Gibby’s had any phone calls?

Houston is interviewing hubby, in fact.

Gibby is already scheduled to interview with the Astros and I would certainly think the Mets would be interested. And I think he's a solid choice as the short-term manager for one of these teams: A widely-respected veteran "player's manager" that could immediately come in for a season or two and lead a veteran team without upsetting too many people.

I figured that he was done as a manager, but these are extraordinary circumstances and these teams may want a very "safe hire" while they search for the next up & coming managerial star. I think Gibby is as good as anyone for that role.

Lol. Busted.

Brock Holt is still a FA. Would he not be a better use of a 40 man spot than Velera or Davis?

Only if we get into the sign stealing business.

AWeb, you looked at Colorado hitters by showing their OPS+, a stat which already accounts for ballpark factors, so naturally, you wouldn't see declines when they play elsewhere. It's the raw stats that are grossly inflated by playing there, and that is what leads to Colorado hitters being overrated. A lot of fans look at a Colorado player, and see a guy who hits, say, .320 with 35 HR's, and think "wow, this guy's a great hitter", but the reality is that he is much less than that. For the more sophisticated fan, the park adjusted numbers like OPS+ give you a better view of how good the player is. In the case of Arenado, his park adjusted numbers indicate to me that he is a very good hitter, but not a $35 million player, especially as he declines with age.

Trying to acquire/sign players to contracts that represent good value is certainly not "nonsense". The Blue Jays have a budget. If you overpay for players, you are getting much less bang for the buck. Every dollar spent on player A is one less dollar you have to spend on other players.

Thanks dan gordon for explaining that.

"Trying to acquire/sign players to contracts that represent good value is certainly not "nonsense". The Blue Jays have a budget. If you overpay for players, you are getting much less bang for the buck. Every dollar spent on player A is one less dollar you have to spend on other players."

Re-read the post. "Nonsense," was in reference to not signing or trading players because their contract wasn't "good value." Saving money on Player A to have more for Player B makes no strong argument if both players are worse or don't get you the end result as one player with a worse contract.

See Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, et all.

Looking Astros. Cole's contract wasn't an issue. Verlander was a trade deadline acquisition, which is not the same.
Same with Greinke.

Looking Yankees. They've dropped all their bad contracts and loaded themselves with young players.
Big Maple wasn't a bad contract and the guy they gave up has been terrible.

Looking Dodgers. Loaded with guys they developed themselves.

See Mets for a better match.

dalimon5 - yes, that was exactly the point I was addressing, about a contract not being "good value". The better the value of a contract, the more bang for the buck you are getting. It's very important to use those scarce resources wisely. Now, whether Rogers should pony up more of those "scarce resources" is another matter. I certainly think they should be spending more on the team.

I'm going off assumption that they will be back to $150,000,000 plus for salary. So even after they resign everyone they will still be way below that.

I don't need to comment on signing for an amazing player vs trading...obviously signing would be preferred.

I think this discussion has shown that any hypothetical deal for Arenado would have to be closer to Verlander or Greinke type trades than straight performance for performance of players being swapped in light of the huge contract.

When do Bauxites think that the Jays will meet the $150 mil mark?. That is a nice round number.

My feeling is that it won't happen for 3 years. 2020, 21 and 22. So probably happens in 2023 or 2024.

Ruben Tejada has minors deal with Blue Jays. Includes MLB spring camp invite.

I kinda like this signing. Assuming he can still really pick it at SS (the defensive numbers have seemed pretty good historically), seems to be a little upgrade on the Valera/Espinal guys, and if one of those guys really lights it up he won't block anyone.

That said, I'm giving up the dream of upgrading on Drury or Tellez at this point, which means 2020 is squarely going to be in the "evaluation year" when it comes to the Fishers and Alfords and Tellezs of the world.

I feel that almost everything this FO has done is conservative since they took over from AA.

Morales for EE, Estrada and Happ signings etc ...

The gutsy moves were the Ryu signing, Grichuk extension and the salary dumps of Tulo, Morales and Martin.

So 1 more year of being conservative. Then a bit more aggressive until the team wins 93 games. When the 93 win total is reached I will expect their highest level of aggressive.

Gibby is already scheduled to interview with the Astros

Would our Gibby really fall prey to the allure of the Dark Side? I guess he would, there's only 30 of those jobs out there.

Anyway, I think all right-thinking people would agree that the beating heart of the Dark Side can now be found in New England. The Astros may be truly evil, but James Harden and the Rockets are merely irritating and the Texans seem fairly inoffensive. But the Red Sox! Brad Marchand and the Bruins! Belichik, Brady and the Patriots! (Spying on the Jets? The Jets? Why bother?)

The true focus of evil in the modern world, surely.

Ruben Tejada would be a decent choice for utility backup if he has anything left in the tank.

And if he doesn't, no real loss. Good signing.

Tejada was a decent player 7 or 8 years ago. Hasn't had any kind of mlb success since 2015. If neither Espinal nor Valera is good enough to beat him out for a backup infield job, then the Jays made a major mistake in keeping them instead of Urena. Tejada is AAA material. I will give him credit for a good year with the bat in AAA last year.

I'm not wild about any of the backup shortstop options myself.  I'd rather have Eric Sogard or Brock Holt around. 

The off season is not over yet. Better backup/bench players are out there and should be added. SS is key. If Bo goes down in ST we need v good defense. Kevin Vicuna is defense ready I hear. He may never get a hit. But Gift rarely did.

A few weeks ago I read that NYY are trying to void J Ellsbury last year because he went to the doctor without informing them. He was released in Nov.

So NYY are bad guys. Also unnecessarily mouthed off against Stroman.

Well they must of sweet talked G Cole. I wonder how Cole will perform for the Yankee faithful.

One wonders how close Cole was to coming here - given the reports were the Jays offered $300+ million and the Yankees got him for $324 million.  I suspect the contending status was the deal breaker but if the Jays pushed the Yankees to the high end of their budget then that is a good thing.

The Jays made a ridiculously high offer. Hopefully Cole's agent did not spill the beans and tell NYY what our offer was. That would be an underhanded way to make the NYY go even higher. Boras would know.

I'm pretty sure every agent tells teams what they need to beat. It's up to the teams to decide whether or not to go higher. I would expect that Boras would have told the Jays they needed to beat $324M.

Joe Panik singed to a minor league deal. More insurance.

I am surprised that Panik couldn't get a guaranteed deal somewhere.

Jays signed Ryan Dull. No details yet.

As a Giants' fan, I'm familiar with Panik. Former 1st round draft pick, just turned 29. Looked like a developing young star when he had a 3.3 WAR season in 2015, but hasn't been able to replicate that performance. Has had some injury troubles. He's a decent hitter, hits for a pretty good average, has a little pop, but not much, walks a little, but not much, has OK speed, but isn't a base stealer, handles lefties OK, but not as well as righties. His career numbers are diminished by playing half his games in a terrible hitters' park. Career OPS of .738 on the road. Decent fielder at 2B, but nothing special. Nice pick up on a minor league deal.

Dull was claimed from the Yankees in September, and DFA'd by the Jays in October before being outrighted to Buffalo. He has 171 games in the big leagues under his belt, with a career ERA of 4.31.

We have plenty of power and youth. Experienced back up is needed.

The pen needs attention.

Panik is average defensively. He's got 6.7 career bWAR, all due to 8.1 oWAR.
In his All-Star  year he had an OBP of .378.
He's got almost as many walks as strike outs.

I don't think Valera is going to last long. Maybe Bichette only hits the bench once every 2 weeks, but they'll still need a credible backup at shortstop at AAA.
I don't see Biggio in centerfield. They already have Hernandez/Grichuk/Fisher/Alford fighting for the spot.

This will sort itself out sooner than later.

Ultimately, there are a lot of second basemen on the market and very few centerfielders.
So they sign whatever is available on a minor league contract with a month to go.

Even by adding Biggio to CF, I don't see elite defense. J Davis provides elite defense IMO but his bat prevents him from being even considered as a part of the core going forward. He is a specialist providing defense and pinching running.

If Bo gets injured we have lost a very good bat and decent SS defense. His bat cannot be replaced but his defense can. So no Bo and CF by anyone but J Davis is poor defense up the middle, the way it looks now.

K Vicuna and J Davis on the field at the same time covers the defense but makes for 2 easy outs in the lineup.

Biggio will not be moved to CF at this time. Nor will Trent Thornton be moved to the bullpen anytime soon. These are 2 off season speculations that have no base in reality. What could happen a year from now, none of us can reasonably predict.

Biggio to center might be a good idea.

The idea that 'Hernandez/Grichuk/Fisher/Alford' block a move is nonsense. The first two are not legit CFs. The third is not a legit CF or starting OF at all, and the 4th is not a legit major leaguer.

If Panik had anything in the tank, playing him over Fisher or Alford is a no brainer (with Grichuk in right and Teoscar at DH where they belong).

By my calculations if healthy the regulars will optimistically get 550 ABs in 2020. How much they progress will affect the 2021 results.

Catcher has less ABs. Last year Jansen 350, Mallie 120 and McGuire 100. So about 570 ABS for Jansen and McGuire to share.

Tellez probably gets less than 550 ABs due to T Shaw unless he is the DH. Either way Tellez needs to play full time.

The OF would have Grichuk and Gurriel playing full time OF. Probably T Hernandez in CF and some DH.

Somehow injuries will affect playing time. Therefore I expect Drury to get a fair amount of ABs if this happens.

Other factors will impact playing time. Vlad for example should get his 550 ABs but some quantity will not be at 3B. DH probably.

Moving Biggio to CF makes no sense at this time. Charlie has said it's not happening. We very much do need to see what we have or don't with Hernandez, Fisher, Alford as the team is still in a building phase. Teoscar will not be a full time DH. The plan, and a sensible one, is to rotate players through that position.

I am not saying Biggio will never play in the OF as a regular but not this year and most likely never. It is,though, a good thing to have a player with that kind of utility.

They didn't trade for Fisher just to drop him so that Biggio can play in the outfield.
He's going to be on the team and hopefully not in left field. (His arm is weak for RF.)
They had lots of opportunities to drop Alford, so they will most likely give him a chance to earn his spot in the spring.
Now, if Alford gets hurt, they can rehab him for as long as allowed and that's as close as they're going to get to a 4th option for him. If Alford has a strong spring camp, he should get a chance while the guys on minor league contract wait him out.
If he's no good, they can drop him down and he'll have a chance to clear waivers.

Biggio is more likely to play RF with Grichuk in center than play center outright.
Forrest Wall remains a distant possibility.  .255 .340 .447 in Buffalo.
He just needs to crank that up a notch to become interesting.
Wall is a 2B converted to a CF because of arm issues, however that conversion didn't happen overnight and he's not considered great defensively. I believe  Wall runs better than Biggio.

I like Joe Panik the player. Not a fan though of loving Biggio to CF, and it's hard to see much of a role for Panik unless his bat warms a little. I would prefer Brock Holt.

Jays sign Caleb Joseph to be Luke Maile.

Hopefully, it's just to stash him in Buffalo so that they don't have bring Riley Adams up before he's ready.