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For 2020 we have a much shorter draft now - just 5 rounds.

Via: MLB Trade Rumors

This will be a big impact on teams.  The Jays get the 5th overall pick and the 5th pick in each round after that.  So picks #5, 42, 77, 107, 137 and that is it (via MLB).  Normally having such a high draft pick means you get many rounds of advantage but instead just 5 of them.  Then everyone else is a free agent with a $20k cap on bonuses.  Ouch.  I suspect many players will wait a year rather than sign in that case with a massive draft class the next 1-4 years as high schoolers go to college for 2-4 years instead of signing.  Signability will be critical in those 5 rounds as no team will want to lose a pick in such a short draft.

Guys the Jays drafted in the 6th round (now non-existent) include Matthew Boyd  and Pat Borders.  7th had Casey Blake, 8th Kendall Graveman, 9th Jesse Barfield, Glenallen Hill, 10th Yan Gomes, Ryan Freel

The current team has (not all drafted by the Jays) 13th rounder Brandon Drury, 7th Ken Giles, 9th Derek Law, 15th Ryan Borucki, 9th Thomas Pannone, 15th Jonathan Davis, 16th Danny Jansen, 30th Rowdy Tellez, among others.  Edit: removed 8th Luke Maile as he no longer is here.

Now, what quality could be there for the Jays on their picks?  Lets look at history...
Of note: those are just for those very specific draft positions.  In slot 138 you get 2 20+ WAR guys in Bill Doran  and Alvin Davis for example, while 139 has Lance Johnson (30 WAR), and Javier Vazquez  was a 45 WAR guy out of pick 140.  The further into the draft you get the harder it is to find those gems, but they do exist and nearly every year one is found.  Round 8 in 2010 had Kole Calhoun  & Corey Dickerson (both over 10 WAR), while the 9th produced Jacob deGrom (35 WAR) and Whit Merrifield (13).

The Jays have probably done best (outside of the 1st round) in the 5th with Dave Stieb, Pat Hentgen, and Michael Young - all big stars at times in their careers.  Plus Mike Timlin who nearly got to 20 WAR and closed out the 1992 World Series.  Plus, least we forget, current Jay Cavan Biggio.  Lets hope for good things out of this tiny draft, then hope the Jays front office is very good at convincing quality players to sign here for pennies on the dollar after that.  Best late rounder would be Jeff Kent (20th round 523rd overall 19th pick of that round in 1989) with his 55 WAR and near HOF career (might still get in).

Best for each of the 5 rounds for the Jays ever...
  1. Roy Halladay  (duh) 17th pick overall. (1995) - also current Jay prospects T.J. Zeuch, Nate Pearson among others.
  2. David Wells  30th overall pick, 2nd of that round (1982) - also current Jays Bo Bichette & Sean Reid-Foley
  3. John Olerud  79th overall, 19th of that round (1989) - the same round has Jimmy Key, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind and current Jay Anthony Alford.
  4. Casey Janssen  117th overall, 16th of that round (2004) - quality prospect Kevin Smith also was drafted this round.
  5. Dave Stieb as mentioned before 106th overall, 2nd of the round (1978).  Current Jay Cavan Biggio  this round too
While short this will be a high stakes draft.  Next years will be crazy probably with lots of guys who normally get drafted later and given big bonuses to avoid college will instead be available.  Mix this with a reduced minor league this year and probably going forward and suddenly those early rounds become more and more critical.
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
AWeb - Saturday, May 09 2020 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#387095) #
If next year's draft class becomes way better, it might not be the end of the world to not sign a draft pick, assuming the current system of getting a compensation pick the next year stays in place. Already seeing speculation that the old draft will never come back - who knows how may rounds there will be going forward. One thing that might cause a big change - players going overseas. With a $20K cap on a signing amount, I would think that a lot more players would consider Korea/Japan or even other leagues. If you are the Aussie baseball league, which is no longer owned by MLB, maybe jump at the chance to sign guys. A quick googling shows salaries around 80-110 K per year there.

With fewer minor leagues teams out there as well, MLB is just waiting for a competitor to show up and drain the talent pool.

This also seems like the place for another thing that I think will be changing over the coming decades - the idea that MLB teams will be waiting 5-8 years to develop players before they make the majors. Top hockey, basketball, and football players just go straight to the pros, with a single level minors in place for the rest (football has a practice squad that serves this purpose). I think MLB as a whole will be trying to find ways to concentrate the good players together, younger, so a 19-21 year old can reasonably expect to be ready to go to MLB right away a lot more often. And if that means ripping out minor league teams and players, that's what will happen. It will worsen the quality level of play to do it - long-term minor league play gives you a much better league average than throwing in 20% of the league too young, but other sports have learned to deal with a lot more guys learning on the job at the highest levels, and I think baseball wants the same thing.
scottt - Saturday, May 09 2020 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#387096) #
Luke Maile is with the Pirates, not the Jays.
scottt - Saturday, May 09 2020 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#387097) #
High school grads are not 19-21 and the aluminum bats in colleges don't prepare the players to transition instantly.

I mostly see teams trying harder in the international market.
The whole point here is the teams looking to trim their expenses a bit.
So I still see them trying to get full productivity out of their prospects' cheapest years.

Chuck - Saturday, May 09 2020 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#387098) #
If next year's draft class becomes way better

A complicating factor in the next draft may be the potential ongoing disruption to baseball at all levels, including high schools and colleges. If these young men and boys don't play, how can they be properly evaluated for future drafts?

John Northey - Saturday, May 09 2020 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#387099) #
Must've missed Maile going away earlier.  Ah, signed with the Pirates in mid December - gotta love BR.  He signed for $900k which would've been his biggest payday ever, sucks for him that he won't get anywhere near that now.  Hopefully he gets off to a strong start there as I liked him for some reason - always had a soft spot for defense first catchers.

The mess with college/high school seasons being cancelled will make it very difficult to evaluate the kids.  The loss of the minors this year will also make things difficult.  Suddenly teams that invested in scouts pre-2020 will have a massive advantage.  If I ran a team I'd be asking every scout to make a list of guys they feel could be helpful in 2021 and beyond and to put them on a scale with a big emphasis on character and determination - those who have high determination to succeed will be working out and doing whatever they can to be ready when baseball resumes, those lower on that will be playing video games. 

Interesting point about the extra depth going forward making it not so bad to fail to sign a guy this year.  In 5 years we'll really see the effects as kids who didn't play this year will be reaching the majors then.
bpoz - Sunday, May 10 2020 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#387100) #
Our recent drafts have produced players who have progressed very well and were also good picks.

Bichette, Biggio, Zeuch and Pearson have all graduated. Looks good so far.

Tinnish has found many good prospects but none have made it so far. Hopefully soon with a very good supply line.

The new Dunedin complex should be a big boost to development.

Atkin's strategy to throw everything at the wall should produce something now and the. I think a guy like Tepera has some value to a pen as a decent arm that is cheap. This type can do the Toronto/Buffalo shuttle until/when/if he can establish himself.

scottt - Sunday, May 10 2020 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#387101) #
If there's a crowdless season of 80 games, the Jays will probably play it out of Dunedin.

If they do that and they also plays some minor games out of Dunedin, they should broadcast those as well.

John Northey - Sunday, May 10 2020 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#387102) #
The smart thing to do would be Jay games on the main field and a minor league game on the B field at the same time - televise the Jays game and have 1 or 2 camera's on the minor game then show highlights of it during quiet periods in the main game.  Could be fun. 
scottt - Monday, May 11 2020 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#387104) #
The biggest question for me is what's the protocol if a player test positive?
bpoz - Monday, May 11 2020 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#387106) #
A number of young prospects from Venezuela could not get home and are still in Dunedin. My guess work is that they are being looked after very well, food and shelter and should also be getting some workouts and training at the facility.

I have no news. But am interested.
scottt - Monday, May 11 2020 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#387108) #
The owners have voted on a proposal with 48% of revenues going to the players.
The PA will turn that down tomorrow.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 13 2020 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#387114) #
A fun thing at MLB Trade Rumors - Which 15 Players Should The Blue Jays Protect In An Expansion Draft? -

Who would you protect beyond the obvious ones (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Nate Pearson) and required one (Hyun-Jin Ryu has a no-trade clause) if there was an expansion draft where the Jays could protect only 15 players from their 40 man roster (assuming Pearson gets called up during the upcoming season, again assuming it happens).
Michael - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#387115) #
Don't keep the players that are on "fair" FA contracts or extensions. People that are signed for 2M 4M or 10M a season and are only fair value at best shouldn't be protected. The younger kids should be protected, in general, especially the ones that are close. In contrast people who are still arb eligible and young should mostly be kept. People like 25 year old Tellez and even 25 year old Alford are worth keeping. Teoscar is also a no brainer to keep IMO. Grichuk is a no brainer to not protect. He adds value to the ML roster, but at several years of $10M/year he doesn't add *surplus* value over his contract so he likely will not be picked by an expansion team and if he is the loss is not the same as the younger ML/AAA players.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#387116) #
Keith Law has a mock draft posted at The Athletic and has the Jays taking Emerson Hancock who is rated the best right handed pitcher in the draft.

As for the pretend expansion draft,I would think you would have to include Danny Jansen in the obviously protected category and maybe Trent Thornton also. I would protect Reese McGuire just because there is always a demand for catchers, especially young ones, and if both him and Jansen continue to improve then one of them could be a trade chip in the future.
Gerry - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#387117) #
To get my baseball fix I watched The Battered Bastards of Baseball last night on Netflix. It was a fun movie to watch and I would recommend it.
bpoz - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#387119) #
We should get a few good players in the draft. Our top pick keeps changing but always an interesting player.
ramone - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#387120) #
The latest 4 mock drafts out there are split for the Jays, 2 have them taking Veen and 2 have them taking Hancock. Veen would be an interesting pick at 5.
scottt - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#387121) #
It's weird to look at the top 200 draft list and think that there's probably a dozen or 2 of those guys who won't be offered more than 20K.
scottt - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#387122) #
The last expansion draft was in 1997 and I'm inclined to think that the current situation will push the next one out several years.
scottt - Thursday, May 14 2020 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#387123) #
I would take Veen and gamble on a pitcher in the second round.
I'm not sure that would be "best players available", but that seems like the best risk/reward approach.

scottt - Friday, May 15 2020 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#387124) #
Snell came out loudly against taking a pay cut to play in empty stadiums.
That makes a lot of sense to me, he's already been playing without fans, that must be factored in his contract.

bpoz - Friday, May 15 2020 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#387125) #
Just like in prospect lists you can lump players in groups. There may not be much difference in current evaluation between #15 to #21. #35 to #49. And so on.

Currently the top 3 picks are S Torkelson, A Martin and A Lacy. I suppose any of that 3 can get picked at #6 or lower in the draft. Right now That seems very unlikely to me, but I don't have a reason. I actually like Lacy the best.

At #5 we should take someone that we rank very highly because we are getting a rare chance at a "cream of the crop" selection.

In the lower rounds #4 & #5 and even round 2 & 3 we would have to play with the budget somehow. If our 2nd or 3rd pick is way over slot then we have to budget accordingly. I don't know if rounds 1-3 are protected or not this draft.

College picks like Will Robertson, Tanner Morris and Philip Clarke if they don't sign (if picked) in the 2020 draft would have to accept the $20,000 signing bonus limit.

All of my post is for suggestion that there is some crazy/unknowns in this draft and that I am hoping Bauxites who have drafting strategies will post their strategies.

scottt - Saturday, May 16 2020 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#387126) #
Interesting. MLB claims the attendance represents about 40% of revenues and playing without it would affect the high revenue clubs the most. The Yankees would lose the most at 320M and Detroit would lose the least at 80M.
I can't imagine how Detroit would have a worse attendance than Baltimore, but there you go.

The Jays are probably on the low side of things.

AWeb - Saturday, May 16 2020 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#387127) #
Not surprising anyone who knows me, I think the players should get 100% of their money this year, although they already agreed to a 50% cut (I think?), so that should be it. I haven't seen anything suggesting there is language in the union contract mandating that they don't get paid in this situation, or if fans don't come, or whatever. I might have just missed it in the daily explosion of awful news. Players agree to play games, the leagues and franchises agree to schedule and plan them. Not the player's fault if the games don't happen, too damn bad for ownership. Buy better insurance next time.

The franchises and owners are all stinking rich, and if they are in a position where a single negative year wipes them out, they should have to be wiped out and sell the franchise to someone else. But of course no matter what they say, not a single franchise owner is in this position. Billionaires will get more credit extended to them. MLB isn't going anywhere, the franchises aren't going anywhere, and I hope the players take this chance to play it tough.

Some franchise owners make their money on ever-increasing franchise values, a sort of paper gain. If he Jays are currently worth ~$2 billion Canadian, and if this makes them worth $1.5 billion, Rogers still has an asset worth $1.5 billion. The paper loss of $500 million enables games with deferred losses and asset management to minimize actual net losses over long periods of time. The players are losing a year of potential earnings and their short careers, this year is just a blip to the owners and franchise values.
scottt - Sunday, May 17 2020 @ 03:17 AM EDT (#387128) #
The worth of a team, or of any company, doesn't affect what employees are paid.
The team worth are a bit of a fabrication given that they are all privately owned, except for one or two.

I saw someone working in Dubai who was complaining of a retroactive pay cut of 35%.

For MLB, this is still an evolving situation.
What happens if a player tests positive? He probably gets 2 or 3 weeks of paid sick leave.
What if the whole team needs to isolate? Lay off and unpaid? They're not sick and they're not working.

For the lack of attendance compensation, I think most teams should be able to absorb it, but that doesn't mean they're willing to. The 50/50 share doesn't strike me as fair.  I think it would be fair if the teams take a small loss and the players gets paid whatever money is left. We've heard a few players, but we haven't heard any owner.
I suspect they'd rather cancel the season if that cost them less than playing without fans.

John Northey - Sunday, May 17 2020 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#387129) #
Most of what I've read suggests the owners are manipulating the numbers knowing the public wants baseball and if they play it right they might get more concessions.  The owners biggest revenue source is TV revenue.  From what I've read most of that is based on playoffs, not regular season.  Local rights are regular season and will be slashed.  However, the local rights are the hardest to measure - the Jays like many others, are owned by the same people who own the TV station thus rights fees are a crapshoot.  Who knows what the Jays really are worth to TV stations?  Big markets in the US get $100+ mil a season for rights and get far lower ratings than the Jays get when they are in contention. 

So if I was a player I'd give a big middle finger to the 50% thing - lord knows what is included or not included in it.  Plus I guarantee the owners will try to deduct 'expenses' from it before splitting it.  That said, I could see the players agreeing to a bit less (10% or something) to help get things going but I couldn't imagine much more than that.

All that said, I really hope they find a way to make it happen.  Some baseball is better than no baseball.
ayjackson - Sunday, May 17 2020 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#387130) #
I doubt the players would win a legal challenge if the owners don't want to pay them under the current terms of their contracts. There's this thing called force majeure which is being widely used across industry right now.

So the players will likely have to "play ball".
John Northey - Sunday, May 17 2020 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#387131) #
If the owners refuse to pay, the players refuse to play.  No one wins.  I'm sure they will figure something out, even if the Jays are on the road all season due to Canada having more sanity than the US where Trump is now pushing for crowds at sporting events.  I hope our border stays closed until a vaccine is found.
ayjackson - Sunday, May 17 2020 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#387132) #
Imsure they'll figure out to. But it won't be at existing contract values.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, May 19 2020 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#387133) #
What is likely going to happen, whether players get their prorated salaries or not, is that owners will use reduced 2020 revenue as an excuse to have mass non-tenders in the off-season and penny pinch in free agency. Player salaries in 2021 are going to take a huge hit. Which is why I would stand firm if I were the players, knowing full well that not having a 2020 season because of money during a pandemic would be one of the most tone deaf, brand-killing things they could possibly do.

If MLB can pull off a July 1 start date, then they would likely be the first big time sports league to come back (the NBA will likely be a few weeks after that going by the rumors). If MLB wants to squander that opportunity for money, then I guess they deserve whatever consequences come with that. They are already teetering on irrelevancy in mainstream America. Being the first sport back during July 4th weekend would be huge for them. They need the game back for potential growth of the sport just as much as TV revenue.
Michael - Wednesday, May 20 2020 @ 02:18 AM EDT (#387134) #
A review of the Donaldson trade from the POV of the A's is at

The comments section are also fun with both Jays and A's fans commenting.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 20 2020 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#387135) #
In my view, team sports should be one of the last things to come back.  The risk of a second wave in the fall larger than the first is too great.

If the players decide that it is too risky for themselves and the general public for there to be games until there is a vaccine, they will have my respect.  As for the owners, all I can say is they have monopoly protection on the basis that baseball is America's pastime.  It was comical before and now very darkly so. 

I have learned that I miss live music a lot more than baseball.  I hope that maybe I will be able to see a very small live outdoor show this summer, but even that is pushing the limits of what is safe.
scottt - Wednesday, May 20 2020 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#387136) #
In my view, team sports are fairly low risks. Stores are a big vector.
Allowing folks form the cities to go into rural areas where they have a cottage is a huge risk.
Players should be allowed to opt out and sit it out if they want to.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 20 2020 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#387137) #
The report from Ontario is entirely gloomy.  Many fewer tests and about the same number of cases and deaths as we had two weeks ago.  In the US, there has been a great leveling off with the tri-state area around NYC much, much better and the rest of the US somewhat worse. And we haven't seen the effect of the openings yet. 
Glevin - Wednesday, May 20 2020 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#387138) #
"In my view, team sports should be one of the last things to come back. The risk of a second wave in the fall larger than the first is too great."

I miss baseball like crazy but I agree. There has been a slight leveling off of cases but not a real decline so the risk is there. What would the season look like? Players not high fiving, not sitting next to each other, empty stadiums, a player getting a positive test and an entire team going into quarantine, some major players sitting out the year. I'd rather miss the season than have some crappy version of baseball that lasts 15 games. I mean, what if someone tests positive which will likely happen? What then? The team couldn't play and would have to isolate for 2 weeks. How could they possibly make up those games? There are just so many issues that are impossible to address properly until there is a vaccine or much better treatment.
scottt - Wednesday, May 20 2020 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#387139) #
Things might not be better in 2021.
To me, the main thing is if the MLB teams don't get going, players in the minors are just left to rot.

John Northey - Thursday, May 21 2020 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#387140) #
From what I've read they plan to have it be that the one player is isolated while the rest are tested more often (and immediately of course).  Safe to say we'd have fewer of those face to face scream fests from managers and players towards umps one would hope.  Given the US seems bound and determined that life must return to normal immediately I fully expect baseball to start soon with the Jays probably playing in Florida out of Dunedin, or in Buffalo if they want a bigger stadium for some reason.  Maybe games in Toronto if they make the playoffs.  Maybe.
scottt - Thursday, May 21 2020 @ 05:45 AM EDT (#387141) #
With openings, we'll see more cases. That's like predicting that summer will be hotter than spring.

We're sort of on the herd immunity track now.
I wouldn't recommend anybody to get it on purpose; in my 50s and I'm still recovering 4 weeks later.
The thing is, once it gets into a retirement home, it spreads to most of the residents and once it's done the rounds in all of those, the mortality numbers will fall.
It's killing between 10% and 20% there, but it falls to 2-5% for people in the 60-80 range, less than 1% for people in the 40-60 range and tiny numbers beyond that.
For the older folks, still leaving independently on their own, it's going to become harder and harder to dodge.

We've totally dropped the ball on protecting the most vulnerable in care, choosing instead to focus on hospital staff to make sure we're never out of intensive care unit beds. Hospital occupancy is actually low and infected people are returned to residence to keep spreading it.

bpoz - Thursday, May 21 2020 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#387143) #
Hope you recover soon scottt.

I see more cars on the road now. The weather is getting better and will continue to do so. Infections could make a short term jump.

There is suggestion that the virus is mutating. Nothing accurate on the new mutations figured out yet. That I know of.

I think International flights will cause a new spreading of mutated viruses when ever these flights resume. The level of strictness of enforced restrictions is different in different countries. Also states and provinces.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 21 2020 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#387144) #
As long as there is adequate testing, a quick turnaround in results, and a plan that allows the sport to safely continue even after a player tests positive, then I think all sports can (and should) continue. Players with pre-existing health conditions will have to be factored into this (they should probably sit out the season), and any player or players who don't feel comfortable playing under these conditions should be allowed to stay home (although then pay will become an issue), but everyone else with the proper protocols in place should be allowed to play if deemed safe. Everyone benefits from playing a season, in all sports. I don't see how it is feasible to stop businesses (sports and otherwise) for much longer.

We can't go back to business as usual because the reality is we are probably staring at a new normal for at least another year or two, but that new normal doesn't have to be delayed if proper precautions are in place.
ayjackson - Thursday, May 21 2020 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#387145) #
I certainly don't believe we're in the herd immunity mode now. We are in the pump the breaks mode. We will be until immunized. I think we will ease off on restrictions, the virus will come back, will enter a restriction period again, and the virus will fade....rinse repeat until immunized.

I don't see a problem with sports coming back, without fans. We're talking about a couple thousand people per league. That's a minute percentage of total people in essential services.

If we are going to continue in pump the breaks mode, people will need distractions. Mental health issues are real and undereported right now. But much as they were during the wars, sports will be an important distraction from the next year or so of this virus.
Chuck - Thursday, May 21 2020 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#387146) #
I certainly don't believe we're in the herd immunity mode now.

Agreed. Canada has a case rate of about 0.2% (37M people, 80K cases). We don't know how many people have been infected without showing symptoms, but even if it's 10 times the number of cases, we're looking at just 2% of the population having been infected. Sweden has been far less locked down than the rest of the world and they are only at about 7%.

For herd immunity, we'd need an infection rate of 67%-90% based on the reproduction rate, R0. Clearly we are nowhere near that rate and never will be short of widespread vaccination (or a total surrender to the virus, killing millions).

Setting aside that we don't know what level of immunity previous infection offers, polling in the US suggests that 25% of their population may opt to not get vaccinated at all, making the herd immunity rate difficult to achieve.

So yes, bread and circuses. The planet needs distractions (though people shouldn't have to imperil themselves to entertain the masses).

scottt - Friday, May 22 2020 @ 06:44 AM EDT (#387147) #
Ontario and Quebec are reopening even though the infection rate has not decreased, hence herd immunity phase in which we're exposing more and more of the population--even though the death rate might not increase since the most vulnerable are already gone.

MLB has shared 67 pages of virus response protocol with the players who have reacted negative to several items like arriving to the facility in uniform, no use of showers in facility, no guests allowed, no hydro therapy (not sure what that is). Instead the players are asking for daily testing at owners expense.

Mike Green - Friday, May 22 2020 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#387148) #
Fred Willard who died last week was asked what his greatest achievement was.  He replied "teaching my daughter to catch a fly ball".  I have seen more parents doing things with their kids, including playing baseball.  This means a lot more to me than watching players on TV playing a sterile version of the game.  It sure would be nice if our society spent more energy making these simple things more possible by making public spaces from parks to schoolyards to streets accessible in a safe way to the public for baseball, live music and so on.  It requires some thought obviously.

And as for the mental health consequences of the pandemic, I concur wholeheartedly.  But it's summer.  The best thing for people who have spent a lot of time cooped up is not to spend more time in their homes watching TV.  I suspect that I am not alone, and that the television numbers for baseball would be very poor. 
scottt - Friday, May 22 2020 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#387149) #
I think there is zero chances Little Leagues will open this year.
You can't play baseball inside, so there will be less playing with kids, not more.
Normally, I'd be working with my grandson in rookie ball.

I don't see why anyone who normally watches baseball games wouldn't watch now.
Games are mostly played at night when there isn't much to do outside.

Mike Green - Friday, May 22 2020 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#387150) #
In Toronto in the summer, the night time is great.  All we need is place outdoors to enjoy them with our bubble (however small that bubble may be).  I'm totally in favour of street patios. 
scottt - Friday, May 22 2020 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#387151) #
My understanding is that in Toronto, there's not enough parks for the density of children.

Consider the Ontario Little League districts:

District 1: Toronto Hamilton
District 2: Ottawa West
District 3: Thunder Bay
District 4: Northern Ontario
District 5: Windsor London
District 6: Ottawa East
District 7: Seaway (rural area west of Ottawa)
District 8: Ottawa River Valley

In the summer, my kids/grandkids, play in 4 districts.
Of course, Toronto often has a super jacked up all-star club, but they don't dominate.

I'm pretty sure parks will stay closed at night.
Those are mostly used for beer leagues which is really not what we want right now.

Chuck - Saturday, May 23 2020 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#387152) #
I imagine we are all suffering from COVID fatigue at this time. The COVID-specific thread died of its own weight after having been a lively source of exchange.

On the topic of herd immunity, I misstated Sweden's current situation. Their antibody testing suggests they are at about 20% herd immunity (not 7%) at this time and will not reach the expected 40-60% rate in June per their earlier modelling.

I do maintain that herd immunity will not be reached without widespread vaccination. People's instincts for self-preservation will preclude the virus from infecting everyone in the short term, as it otherwise would given its presumed reproduction rate.

Shoeless Joe - Sunday, May 24 2020 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#387153) #
I started to go through the Baseball America big Board to Identify targets for the Jays:

Early List:
005. 2B Nick Gonzales, RHP Max Myer
042. Daniel Cabrea OF , Jared Shuster LHP, Alex Santos HS RHP, Victor Mederos HS RHP, Isiah Greene HS OF,
077. David Calabrese CDN HS OF, Kalai Rosario HS OF

Glevin - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#387155) #
"005. 2B Nick Gonzales, RHP Max Myer"

I trust the Jays much more than I do my own googling but my preference would be for a hitter. I don't like taking pitchers at the top of the draft. Too much risk and too much unpredictability and I feel like the Jays have excellent depth at pitching and outside C, SS, and 3B not much depth for hitters.
bpoz - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#387157) #
Picking #5 I think means that we get what is left over after 1-4. Ok that is obvious.

The top 7 seem to move around in the guessing game. But it is limited to about 7 players it seems to me.

I don't want the Jays to take a "safe" pick. But it seems that they are all safe picks except Zac Veen. Veen may be considered not safe because he is a HS hitter.

Ed Zosky and Deck McGuire were high college picks that were considered safe and did not make it. The high floor, #3/4 SP type. So safe but lacking a high ceiling.

Matt Stark and Travis Snider were HS picks with high ceiling that did not make it. More risk and more reward/high ceiling type.
John Northey - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#387158) #
Was glad to see the Jays are using their whole staff this draft - - far smarter than just sending them all home with no pay. Even guys around the office would be helpful for putting video together for the coaches to go through I'd think. Hopefully this leads to the Jays finding a couple more diamonds in the rough both during the 5 rounds and after. With more people digging through video you are bound to find a few more players who would be missed otherwise I'd think.
bpoz - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#387159) #
The 2019 draft went according to script. Pretty much. The top 7 actual picks were ranked 1,2,3,5,6,4,8. #2,5 & 6 were HS players. maybe they are the perceived High ceiling type.

2018 were all top 10 ranked except #7 ranked #13 Ryan Weathers.

Some 2017 draft picks look like they would have made the Majors this year. M Gore HS, B McKay & N Pearson college.

Many 2017 picks should make their debut in 2020, 21 and 22 . I would think.
scottt - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#387160) #
Using the whole staff but only drafting 5 guys.

Maybe they'll work really hard at finding talented guys wiling to sign for 20k?

bpoz - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#387162) #
Only 5 rounds may be something like when the Jays were penalized for Vlad's high bonus. Only cheap picks next year.

The 6th round slot value would be over $200,000 in almost all past years. Our 4-10 round picks always signed for under $500,000. The 4 year drafting results for Shapiro (LaCava and Atkins)is SSS and does not prove anything definite.

2019:- W Robertson, T Morris, C Eden and P Clarke. I don't know who is best or good. So maybe all of them.

2018:- S Wymer, A Barger, N Podluk and J Murray. So far J Murray.

2017:- K Smith, C Large, B Lundquist, C Laws and Z L:ogue. Maybe a slight edge to K Smith so far.

2016:- C Biggio was a Hr. J Palacios has a very good shot at being a bench player.

So we will pay 5 guys quite well I expect. The 6th player chosen will get $20K at best.

We scored very little in the rest of the drafts.

2016 J Wincowski and C Young.

2017 R Noda & DJ Neal.

2018 Its early but I don't see anyone yet.

2019 Maybe M Domingurz and CJ Masson based on big signing bonuses.
Craig B - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#387164) #
An Expansion Draft! Cool.

My protects (15 off the 40, right?):

Ryu (NTC, fine)
one or two (depending on X Draft rules) of Anderson, Roark, Shoemaker (probably Anderson and Shoemaker)
Kay, I suppose? and Reid-Foley? God this team sucks.

Alford, I guess
Craig B - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#387165) #
I might want to pick Yennsy Diaz instead of one of the fifth-starter-type prospects like Reid-F or Kay, I dunno.
John Northey - Monday, May 25 2020 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#387168) #
The expansion draft thing at MLB Trade Rumors is fun. Current results are...
5 guys with 60%+ picking them
Danny Jansen #1 with 87% picking
Anthony Kay #2 with 69%
Teoscar Hernandez
Trent Thornton
Ryan Borucki

2 with 50%+
Reese McGuire
Randal Grichuk

3 in the 40's
Rowdy Tellez
Sean Reid-Foley
Elvis Luciano

2 in the 30's
Tanner Roark
T.J. Zeuch

5 in the 20's
Travis Shaw
Jacob Waguespack
Derek Fisher
Jordan Romano
Anthony Alford

7 in the 10's
Yennsy Diaz
Sam Gaviglio
Thomas Pannone
Billy McKinney
Brandon Drury
Jonathan Davis
Wilmer Font - last place for those listed at 10.24%

The site made it mandatory to have ...
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Bo Bichette
Cavan Biggio
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
and due to contract terms...
Hyun-Jin Ryu

tercet - Tuesday, May 26 2020 @ 02:24 AM EDT (#387169) #
Rowdy Tellez was on Ricky Romero's podcast earlier this month, and said Phil Bickford never signed in 2011 because he showed up to a post draft physical with a broken arm. So I guess it only took 9 years, but we can finally end the rumours of why he never signed, lol
PeterG - Tuesday, May 26 2020 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#387170) #
BA has published a list of the top 100 international signings from 2019. There are 7 Jays on the list. They are:

Estivin Machado -ss
Rikelvin de Castro -ss
Victor Mesia - c
Peniel Brito -3b/OF
Dahian Santos - rhp
Christian Feliz - OF
Roberto Robertis - OF
scottt - Tuesday, May 26 2020 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#387171) #
Great list of names.

The Blue Jays could use an outfielder named Rob.
Especially if he could steal a base here and a hit there.

scottt - Tuesday, May 26 2020 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#387173) #
Today the owners are proposing a sliding pay scale with the lowest earners making most of their salaries and the highest earner taking the biggest pay cut.

The owners have said they're standing to lose 4 billion by playing without spectators.
The sum of all the teams' payroll is about that figure. For an 82 games half schedule, that's only 2 billion.
So, maybe they can squeeze the players for an extra 500M. I don't think they'll get much more.

scottt - Tuesday, May 26 2020 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#387174) #
Seems like they're trying to squeeze them for 1 billion.

1M player would make 434K, so about 87%.
10M player would make 2.9M, so about 58%.
35M player would make 7.8M, so about 45%.

jerjapan - Wednesday, May 27 2020 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#387175) #
Who read John Lott's piece on the Jay's SSs at the Athletic?  Super promising look at Orelvis Martinez and Miguel Hiraldo.  We might have the best overall middle IF talent in the game, if you include the minors and the bigs.  Not sure who I would be willing to swap with, TBH. 
PeterG - Wednesday, May 27 2020 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#387178) #
The latest BA mock, released today, has Jays taking Nick Gonzales. This is the player I would like. Not sure if he will actually be there at 5.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, May 27 2020 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#387179) #
Nick Gonzales is the best case scenario for me in this draft, and he is everything the Jays look for in a prospect. I have probably been sleeping on Zack Veen, but he would also represent a solid pick with strong performances on the showcase circuit.

I am also happy to see Max Myer ranked ahead of Hancock finally, as his stuff is terrific and I would be very worried about drafting Hancock without a medical after a lousy spring.

bpoz - Wednesday, May 27 2020 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#387180) #
Garrett Mitchell has type 1 diabetes since grade 3. That may scare off some teams.
John Northey - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#387181) #
Orelvis Martinez hit 275/352/549 in rookie ball at 17 last season. Nice start to his pro career. Miguel Hiraldo has 2 pro season, 300/362/435 at 17 in a mix of rookie leagues here and in the Dominican. 299/346/485 in rookie ball (US only) at 18 last year factoring in a triple in his one A ball game (1-4, no k's). A shame these 2 don't get to play a full season this year. Hopefully the Jays have someone working with them remotely so they can build up their skills despite the break.

Miguel Hiraldo has 72 games at SS, 30 at 2B, 9 at 3B.
Orelvis Martinez has 26 at SS, 11 at 3B.

Ideally the Jays keep both playing at 2B/SS/3B depending on skill sets so they can be ready for any of the 3 slots depending on Vlad/Biggio/Bichette's status in a few years.

Don't forget Otto Lopez in A at 20 - 324/371/425 - either as he could be a dang good one too.
tercet - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#387183) #
**FLASHBACK TO 2005***
Who needs Troy Tulowitzki, we got Russ Adams and Aaron Hill!!
**FLASHBACK TO 2020***
Just draft the best player available, but be semi skeptical of someone in JUCO playing in New Mexico which is an extreme hitters environment facing subpar pitching.
85bluejay - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#387184) #
Not been paying attention but trying to get an underslot deal with a player they like and using the saving to draft someone that drops is an option I like very much - with the spring season drastically cut short and the 5 round limit, this draft is going to be wild and have a lot of second guessing in the years ahead.
scottt - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#387185) #
With only 5 draftees, there is no underslot and money saving. Everyone drafted will count his blessings and sign.

I don't know where Ricky Romero was ranked, ultimately he was very good for a few years.

Regardless, the draft that year went Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Tulo, Wade Townsend, Mike Pelfrey and Cameron Maybin.

Clement was the dud. Townsend too, but even now, I'm not sure who the best player here was.
Braun has provided more WAR, but is a PED user.
Tulo had the advantage of playing in a friendly ballpark.
There's a bunch of all-stars there and the Jays should be able to pick from a similar group.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#387187) #
2019 Cape Cod League Top Prospects: 1-10

1. Nick Gonzales, 2B, Cotuit (Junior, New Mexico State)

Gonzales this spring hit .432/.532/.773 to lead the nation in batting and earn All-America honors. He then continued his torrid play this summer on the Cape, proving himself against premium pitching and away from the altitude at which New Mexico State plays its home games. He hit .351/.451/.630 with seven home runs and six stolen bases and won MVP honors after finishing among the league leaders in a host of statistics.

Gonzales simply has a knack for putting the bat on the ball and making hard contact. He used a patient approach early in the summer, almost feeling out the league before getting more aggressive as the summer went on. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and walked about as much as he struck out, a ratio that has been true throughout his college career. Listed at 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, he isn’t a power hitter, but he has the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He’s an average runner but has good instincts on the bases. Gonzales has worked to improve his footwork and hands over the last year and is now a solid defender at second base.

Overall, Gonzales is not a prototypical first-round pick, but that’s where he’s positioning himself after such an impressive 2019. His plus hitting ability combined with his surprising power makes for an intriguing package that may remind some of Keston Hiura.

Glevin - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#387189) #
"With only 5 draftees, there is no underslot and money saving. Everyone drafted will count his blessings and sign."

I don't think that's true at all in fact. Quite the opposite. Most of the underslot deals are to get better players in the 2nd and 3rd round.(Like Groshans/Kloffensiten picks). If the Jays cut an underslot deal with someone like Garret Mitchell for example, they could save millions and then go overslot in second round for someone like Bitsko who might be a hard sign if he slips. Not saying that this is what they should do or will do, but some teams will go underslot for sure.
bpoz - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#387190) #
The Jays do a good job of making sure the player will sign if selected by promising and agreeing in principal to a deal. That is my feeling.

I was very afraid that P Clarke would not sign. He did.

A Kloffenstein, I think but am not sure told some teams that he would not sign if they selected him. Bo Bichette also made demands that he was not going to change his hitting style so don't select him and try to do that. This is all stuff I have read and cannot prove it by giving links. Sorry.
scottt - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#387199) #
Where they are drafting, saving money on an underslot would be like passing on a possible Hall of Famer to get a better pick later in the draft and maybe find a bench player.
Glevin - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#387200) #
"Where they are drafting, saving money on an underslot would be like passing on a possible Hall of Famer to get a better pick later in the draft and maybe find a bench player."

Not at all. Underslot doesn't mean going to get a bad prospect. It means maximizing value. Look at 2018. Groshans was a surprise pick at 12 but if there were a re-draft of the year, he'd probably go even higher. If you think the difference between say Hancock and Mitchell is insignificant and the difference between who you can get in the second round for the extra money is more significant, then it makes sense to do it. BTW, you have to go back to 2008 in order to find a star player taken at #5. You definitely have a better chance of getting one earlier than later but "Possible HOFer" is a tad hyperbolic.
scottt - Thursday, May 28 2020 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#387201) #
Groshans was drafted 12th between Grayson  Rodriguez and Connor Scott.
It was a particularly smart pick because it involves drafting 2 friends together.

However, Kellenic went 6th in that draft and is now ranked as the 11th top prospect.

The top draftees that year are now:
1. Mize  now, 7th ranked prospect
2. Bart,  now 14th
3. Bhom, now 30th
4. Madrigal, now 40th
5. India, --
6. Kellenic, now 11
Then nobody cracks the top 100 until Groshans.

You never go underslot when you pick at the top.
The Jays should get a top talent here.

They could be back drafting in the high teens next year.

Glevin - Friday, May 29 2020 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#387209) #
"You never go underslot when you pick at the top."

That's simply not true. Teams go underslot all the time at the top of the draft. Just a couple of recent examples.

In 2016, the Braves signed Ian Anderson, the #3 pick at what was roughly #7 pick value. They used the savings go overslot on Joey Wentz and Kyle Muller. In 2017, the Twins went underslot with Lewis at #1 and used the savings to go way over on Blayne Enlow. You obviously wouldn't use this strategy if there were a Alex Rodriguez to draft, but that's a rare occurrence. Again, I am not saying this is what the Jays should do or will do just that it's a valid option especially when you have a second pick in the top-50 and 3rd pick in top-75.
Mike Green - Friday, May 29 2020 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#387210) #
With MLB cutting off minor leaguers as of this weekend, David Price is paying all Dodger minor leaguers not on the 40 man $1,000 for June.

Class act.  I am glad he finally got his ring, but only wish it had been while he was here.
bpoz - Friday, May 29 2020 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#387211) #
"Obviously having the 5th pick this year, we'll have a lot of focus on the three or four we feel like are in our mix there," said Shapiro.

Nice quote. He could be talking about the 1st round or the whole draft.
scottt - Friday, May 29 2020 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#387213) #
The Jays pool money goes like this:
5th 6.2M
42th 1.7M
77th 800K
106th 550K
136 410K

And then no more than 20K.

The other challenge this year is that you can't really scout guys who aren't playing.
Nobody will raise because he got hot  before the draft.

Now, if there is no baseball this year. Are the Jays still picking 5th in 2021?

mendocino - Friday, May 29 2020 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#387216) #
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, May 30 2020 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#387218) #
So what does the axing of the minor leaguers really mean? If things return to normal next year and there is minor league ball, are all of these players free agents? And what of the ones, presumably all the prospects the teams feel have a chance to make the big clubs, that are left going to do for this year? Work out at their team's training facility? If there is a MLB season, does each club have a taxi squad of normally AAA players available who will work out with the main team and be available in case of injury or poor performance of a player on the major league roster?

Sorry for all the questions, just wondering how all this will shake down.

PeterG - Saturday, May 30 2020 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#387219) #
I have heard talk that the rosters will be at least as large as 40...maybe even 50 players.
bpoz - Saturday, May 30 2020 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#387220) #
Hagen Danner is going to become a pitcher. Very nice.

I saw the video on twitter. I am assuming it is current. The arm looks strong. G Moreno twits that his bullpen would break his arm.

He did not make Blue Bird Banter's top 40 list. I expect him back on that list. 2 years left after the 2019 season before he needed 40 man protection.

A scouting report would be nice. I expect one soon.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, May 30 2020 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#387225) #
That’s excellent news that Hagen Danner is going to get a chance as a pitcher, it was clear the hitting side was not going to work out.
John Northey - Saturday, May 30 2020 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#387226) #
Interesting that Danner is pitching now. Pretty young to shift, just entering his age 21 season. especially when at 19 he hit 279/409/432 in 32 games in Bluefield. I guess the 623 OPS+ while playing 1B/CA last year was the end for that dream and if he can shift then it is very smart to do it now rather than wait.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, May 31 2020 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#387227) #
For what it’s worth, John Sickels compared Danner as a pitcher over a hitter during his draft year.
bpoz - Monday, June 01 2020 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#387230) #
Thanks for posting the pool money for the Jays scottt.

Rounds 3,4 and 5 add up to $1.76 mil. So a total of 3 expensive players in rounds 1,2,3 and 2 cheap players is a strategy of some sort. There is probably also the additional 5% over budget money.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 01 2020 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#387231) #
An early five round mock for the Jays produced by myself:

005. Nick Gonzales 2B
042. Victor Mederos HS RHP (46)
078. Beck Way RHP (85)
107. Tyler Keenan 3B (114)
136. Brandon Birdsell RHP (142)

This leaves the Jays with a pair of proven college hitters with three high upside arms form the high school and JUCO ranks.

PeterG - Monday, June 01 2020 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#387232) #
Ben Badler of BA has previewed upcoming international signing season. He mentions 4 players that appear to be committed to the Jays headed by ss Manuel Beltre, whom we have been hearing about for over a year now. Badler gives a positive assessment, saying that Beltre is advanced and experienced for his age.

The Jays are also expected to sign Martin Gimenez, lanky shortstop (6-foot-3, 160 pounds) from Venezuela who has a chance to hit for power as he fills out. A position change is probably in his future, with a strong arm that could fit at third base.

Another Venezuelan, CF Yhoangel Aponte is expected to go with TO. He is said to have good defensive instincts and hits ball hard from right side.

The 4th expected signee is Dominican catcher Jonathan Peguero who is expected to ink just south of 500K
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, June 03 2020 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#387245) #
Keith Law posted his latest mock draft and heard the Jays are in on pitchers, having them pass on Nick Gonzales for Hancock. I think for me that sounds like a worst case scenario. At the very least I would rather have Max Myers who to me is very similar to Tim Lincicum.
scottt - Wednesday, June 03 2020 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#387246) #
Lincecum was drafted 10th. That sounds like a good spot for Myers.

It will be interesting to see if Law is right or not. It's coming up soon.

Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, June 03 2020 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#387247) #
Baseball America is reporting that Baltimore is looking at going underslot at #2 Which means Austin Martin may fall. The buzz is building at Hancock to the Jays at #5.
bpoz - Thursday, June 04 2020 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#387252) #
J Mayo is now saying Max Meyer instead of Zac Veen to the Jays. June 3.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, June 04 2020 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#387258) #
I listened to a podcast featuring Shi Davidi, Arden Zwelling and others and they seemed to think the Jays would take Myer ahead of Hancock if it comes down to that.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#387259) #
The Jays in the last 4 draft have taken only one pitcher shorter than 6’5 in the top 5 rounds, as that was Sean Wymer. I think they prefer big body pitchers early like Zeuch, Pearson, Kloffenstein, Manoah and Williams.

I think Myer would be the better pitcher but I could buy the hype for Hancock from Keith Law and Baseball America given his greater physicality.

I still do not think the Jays will pass on Nick Gonzales, as they have valued Cape Cod performers like Manoah, Griffen Connie, Kevin Smith, and Will Robertson in the past.
scottt - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#387260) #
I wouldn't put too much weight on that. We have a new draft director and Connine, Smith and Robertson haven't made it yet.

I can think of many top pitching prospects who have struggled to stay healthy.
It's a very real risk.

Glevin - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#387261) #
Certainly looks like one of Veen, Gonzalez, Meyer, or Hancock. Would be fine with any of them but prefer hitters early in the draft (pitchers have very high failure rate, even top-5 pitchers).
greenfrog - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#387262) #
I’m not sure which player would be the best choice at #5 overall, but I hope the organization chooses a player with significant upside (like Groshans and Manoah and Pearson) in lieu of a perceived “safe” pick (like Warmoth and Zeuch and McGuire).

Maybe Meyer will be that player in this year’s draft. Or maybe it will be Veen, Gonzalez, or Hancock.

Who knows? Maybe a fluke will occur and Austin Martin will somehow fall to #5.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#387266) #
Well if upside is perceived to be tied with loud tools, Myer is that player with a 70 fastball and 70 slider combination. Garrett Mitchell while a college player would be another toolsy outfielder with huge upside, but he hasn't enough production for me.

Lazy prospect comparisons for the top four:

Gonzales: Nico Hoerner
Myers: Luis Pantino
Hancock: Matt Manning
Zack Veen: Jared Kelenic

greenfrog - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#387268) #
Today’s BA chat contains some discussion of Hancock versus Meyer. BA rates Hancock more highly (“more traditional starter’s profile with four solid or better pitches, a taller frame and better command”), but note that the gap between the two isn’t huge. As for Meyer, his fastball and breaking ball are “much more electric,” giving him arguably “a bit more upside and swing-and-miss stuff” than that of Hancock. Two very different pitchers.

They also say that Gonzalez has about a 20% chance of sticking at SS.
PeterG - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#387269) #
MLB network is now showing and streaming draft preview shows. Just saw that they now rank Simeon Woods Richardson as Jays #3 prospect with only Pearson and Groshans ahead of him.
greenfrog - Friday, June 05 2020 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#387270) #
Assuming that Tork, Martin, and Lacy are the first three players selected, I might rank the next few prospects as follows: Meyer, Gonzalez, Hancock. Or maybe Gonzalez, Meyer, Hancock. (Pure guesswork on my part.) The Jays should have their choice of at least two of those three players.

Best-case scenario is that Martin somehow falls to the Jays.
scottt - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#387272) #
4th Manoah
5th Kirk
6th Orelvis Martinez
7th Gabriel Moreno
8th Miguel Hidalgo
9th Kloffenstein
10th kay

Is that just based on the last spring camp?

19 Patrick Murphy
20 Reese McGuire
21 Alford
22 Espinal
23 Kevin Smith
24 Thomas Hatch
25 Merryweather

An interesting block that was supposed to see a lot of action this year.

bpoz - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#387273) #
Torkelson and Gonzales may not be high ceiling.

A list of 8 that are liked by any Bauxite should/could have the player that succeeds. Like Bo, Trout, C Sale and C Yelich.

Of course there should/could be a dud in the 8. Like Mark Appel who got a massive signing bonus.
bpoz - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#387274) #
I am looking at a list, not mine, (200 names), with Z Veen #7 and R Hassell #16. One could go top 10 or close and the other #15-20. They look so similar to me.

I will check the 200 names to see if anyone is reasonably comparable. This guy I add probably can be had with our 2nd or 3rd pick.
bpoz - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#387276) #
For rounds 3,4,5 my long shot OF has to have a 55 hit tool rank. Isaiah Greene is all I could find.

Anthony Gose could run and had a strong arm but could not hit. Now trying pitching, late in his development.

Dave Stieb wanted to be an OF but was convinced to try pitching and had success as a pitcher.

A Lacy 60 fb, Hancock 65 fb and Meyer 70 fb. OFs with good arms (60) are Owen Cassie, Petey Halpin, Jake Vogel, Chase Davis 70 LH, Joey Wiemer 70 RH, Blake Dunn 65 RH.

I know that pitchers have more advanced secondary pitches than strong armed OFs. I also don't know if a 60 fb pitcher throws as hard as a 60 OF. I am hoping velocity is basically equal. Control and command are other very important factors.

John Northey - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#387277) #
Gose is interesting - entering his age 29 season now, in 9 games in relief in winter he had a 1.86 ERA (2 runs in 9 2/3 IP) 3 BB 13 SO. In spring 6 games, 5 2/3 IP 4 H 4 R/ER 3 BB 9 SO for Cleveland. 2.48 ERA last season between A+/AA (great in A+, lousy in AA). Still pulling for him to make it - I love when a player goes from top to bottom and climbs back up.
scottt - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#387278) #
Former Expos Club house manager Bryan Greenberg reveals he corked 24 of Pete Rose's bats.

greenfrog - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#387279) #
From Keith Law’s latest chat:

Dean: Keith, when working for Toronto were you privy to their books or was that only shared with people in the finance department and top executives? Do you think the financial statements leaked from the Marlins several years ago were a complete picture?

Keith Law: I saw the books, yes. That’s why I’ve said for 14 years now that teams play with transfer pricing and pay themselves a pittance for broadcast rights, so the TV/radio entities take all the profits and the team itself appears to be losing money or making very little.


Reading the rest of the chat, it seems that he might rank the top five picks as follows: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer. (This is guesswork; I don’t have access to his published ranking.)
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#387280) #
Laws latest rankings are:

greenfrog - Saturday, June 06 2020 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#387281) #
Thanks, Shoeless. I’ll be reasonably happy if the Jays select Meyer or Veen (assuming Martin and Lacy are no longer available).
scottt - Sunday, June 07 2020 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#387282) #
Torkelson, Lacy, Martin will be gone before the Jays pick.

The target pool is:
Gonzales, a middle infielder, almost 40% of the Jays top 30 are middle infielders, and I already like Bichette and Biggio.
Veen, an outfielder, but only 18. Won't be ready anytime soon, but has potential.
Mitchell, 21, a 5 tool outfielder who is diabetic (Type 1) and missed a lot of time recently with a leg injury.
Hancock, Mayer, pitchers.

PeterG - Sunday, June 07 2020 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#387283) #
Players can change positions. I still like Gonzales.....pure hitter...MVP of Cape Cod League....

If not Gonzalez, then Veen.....maybe he can move through the system as quickly as Bichette?

The pitchers are higher risk imo and pitchers can be drafted in rounds 2-5 if desired.
scottt - Sunday, June 07 2020 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#387284) #
The Buzz is that Detroit is locked on Torkelson.
Baltimore *might* go underslot to brace their 2 second round picks.
Heard nothing on the Marlins, but KC is reported to want a position player.

In the best case scenario, the Jays have their pick of the guys I listed in play.
Otherwise, one of them might be gone.

bpoz - Sunday, June 07 2020 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#387285) #
People say that the top 3 are a lock. Does that mean the #4 and lower are a lower tier? If so how many players are in that tier?
greenfrog - Sunday, June 07 2020 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#387286) #
Putting together the Keith Law and MLB Pipeline rumours, it sounds as if there is a good chance the top five picks will be:

Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 07 2020 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#387287) #
Baseball America thinks Baltimore might go underslot and that the Jays prefer Hancock
greenfrog - Sunday, June 07 2020 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#387288) #
Question: how much better is Hancock than Deck McGuire was when the Jays drafted him? Hancock’s starter profile, solid-but-not-spectacular arsenal of four pitches, and college background make me think of McGuire. Not sure if that’s fair or not. Meyer’s electric two pitches (FB and slider), modest stature, and decent command make me think of Stroman. Which also may be an off-base comparison. For what it’s worth, Law says that if Meyer were 6’3”, he would be in the conversation for the 1/1 pick in the draft.
bpoz - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#387289) #
Very rarely have we had this high a pick and chose a college arm. Gillick Matt Williams RHP, and JPR R Romero LHP. Therefore SSS.

However there have been V good college pitchers picked high. Verlander, G Cole, Strasburg, Kershaw, Greinke. The last 2 are HS arms.

Hancock is being compared to C Mize, Buehler and Jon Harris.

There will be very good value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I think 1983 we picked D Wells and J Key in those rounds.
scottt - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#387290) #
Fair question.

McGuire was throwing a 90-92 mph fastball. Hancock sits 94-97 and hits 99mph with a riding fastball.

McGuire had and average curve and an average slurve.
Hancock has a true slider with low 80s velo and late fade and a hard curve.

McGuire had a fringe average changeup.
Hancock has a plus changeup with fade and good location.

McGuire is 6'6" and was praised for throwing downward. That's not really viewed as a positive now.
Hancock is 6'4" and draws comparisons to Casey Mize who is 6'3".

The knock against Hancock is the lack of a true put away pitch, but he has a complete arsenal.

McGuire was drafted 11th, Pomeranz went 5th, Harvey 7th, Sale 13th and a 1B named Yelich went 23rd.

greenfrog - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#387291) #
For a little more accuracy/context, BA says Hancock’s FB “ranges from 93-97, though some evaluators question the underlying quality of the pitch, wondering if it has the riding life and swing-and-miss qualities you’d like to see from a frontline starter.”
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#387292) #
The only real common ground between Hancock and McGuire is their size, physicality and pitchability. I almost see a few similarities with Jeff Hoffman in that his fastball has velocity but lacks life, and both pitchers don't have a true out pitch in their secondaries. The thing that Hancock has over all his comparisons is a dominant sophmore season in the SEC with is much tougher than the ACC or Conference USA.

Myer on the other hand is electric plain and simple.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#387293) #
In rounds 3-5 I like the draft profiles of Hudson Haskin, who has ranked 74 and BA has ranked 210. He is a plus defender in CF and productive in his year and a half at Tulane, and with wood bats at the New England Collegiate League. He has a swing that scouts do not like, but that has not scared off the Jays over the years.
scottt - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#387294) #
Mayer can touch 99 and has a wipeout slider.
That sounds like Ken Giles, but he was drafted in the 7th round.

I don't know about the Mize/Hancock comparison. Mize is all about the splitter.
They both have a great deal of separation between their fastball and their breaking stuff.
And I think they both command the fastball.
I could see Hancock adding a cutter down the line to give him more options.

PeterG - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#387295) #
Longenhagen at Fangrapghs out with new mock less than an hour ago, now thinks Jays will take Meyer but adds that situation is still fluid.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#387296) #
The athletic has a review of #5 picks since 1998, and by far college hitters have had the most success with Texiera, Posey, JD Drew, Ryan Braun, Wieters, and Jonathan India making up the list.
PeterG - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#387297) #
BA out with a new mock just now also has Jays taking Meyer. Maybe the word is out.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#387298) #
Yeah it seems Myer will be the pick, which much like last year I prefer the position player (Corbin Carroll, Gonzales) but the Jays will take who I think is the best pitcher available (Myer, Manoah).

The Jays prospect pool is going to be loaded with pitching.
greenfrog - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#387299) #
In a video interview on MLB Pipeline, Meyer talked about how effective his changeup has been recently. So he may have the makings of a good third pitch. Interestingly, he throws what appears to be a knuckle-slider (at 90+ MPH).
Michael - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#387300) #
Most important is to get the best player they can. Traditionally pitchers are higher risk with more busts and complete misses (hence TNSTAAPP: There's no such thing as a pitching prospect). In AA's time he seemed to mitigate that with selling high on some of the pitchers when they were still under development to cash them in for good value before they became busts (or rarely, but high profile, hits). That can work too, although obviously the hope is they become (through either development or trades) true stars for the Jays.
greenfrog - Monday, June 08 2020 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#387301) #
I would find Veen and Gonzalez more appealing if they were likely to play a premium position in the majors. Meyer may be the BPA at #5 from the Jays’ perspective, despite TINSTAAPP. Recall that in 2012, it was Stroman (selected 22nd overall), not DJ Davis (selected 17th overall) who worked out for the Jays. Other teams took a pass on the perceived risk associated with Stroman and the Jays were able to capitalize on the opportunity to draft him.

Glevin - Tuesday, June 09 2020 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#387302) #
"I would find Veen and Gonzalez more appealing if they were likely to play a premium position in the majors"

My general feelings as well. I vastly prefer hitters higher in the draft but college pitching seems to make sense where the Jays pick and you'd rather take BPA. Meyer and Hancock are both potential #1 starters which would give the Jays just amazing pitching prospect depth. Either would go straight into the 2-4 range of Jays prospects and be close to a top-100 prospect in the majors. My hope is that the O's go underslot at #2 and create a domino effect of chaos but I think it's like 90% either Meyer or Hancock right now.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, June 09 2020 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#387303) #
On May 28th, BA ranked the pitchers from the 2019-2020 draft classes combined:

01. Asa Lacy (2020)
02. Emerson Hancock (2020)
03. Reid Detmers (2020)
04. Max Meyer (2020)
05. Nick Lodolo  (2019) - #77 on Top 100 List
06. Garret Crochet (2020)
07. Zack Thompson  (2019)
08. Cade Cavalii (2020)
09. JT Ginn (2020)
10. Cole Wilcox (2020)
11. Alek Manoah (2019)

College pitching is the strength of the 2020 class where it was a weakness in the 2019 class. I still think they are a little low on Manoah, but based on this Meyer would likely rank between Woods-Richardson at 61 and Lodolo at 77 on the top 100 and be the the Jays #4 ranked prospect according to Baseball America.

bpoz - Tuesday, June 09 2020 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#387304) #
Thanks for the list of 11 pitchers Shoeless Joe.

They are all good. However with Jacob de Grom being a low draft pick becoming so good I hesitate to fall in love with anyone. Picking #5 has its risks. You can easily miss on someone that becomes very good.

From Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Gonzales, Meyer, Veen and Hassell we will have at least 4 left over to choose from. Maybe they take one. Probably Detmers becomes the best.
PeterG - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#387305) #
The final BA mock released this morning has Jays taking Max Meyer at 5.
Glevin - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#387306) #
Really looks likely to be Meyer which I'd be OK with. Apparently, his slider is possibly the best pitch in the draft and he throws high 90's deep into games. He has amazing stuff and would likely be going 1-1 if he were bigger. I'd still prefer Veen though.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#387307) #
I think the total number of picks in the 5 rounds is maybe 165. The list of 200 prospects with description is a great source for a scouting report on almost all picks.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#387308) #
Baseball America did mention that the Royal also are still showing interesting in Myer, and there is a small chance that Veen falls to the Jays and they take him instead. It is still overwhelmingly likely they Myer is the pick. I also think they take another pitcher in the second round, there are a lot of options for pitching from both the college and Hs ranks in their range.
PeterG - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#387309) #
KC is likely trying to get their pick to sign for under slot.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#387310) #
I think there will be some surprises early in the draft (top ten). It seems like a somewhat fluid situation, and yes, teams are likely trying to get their desired player and also save some pool money for subsequent picks.
finch - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#387312) #
Ed Howard to the Blue Jays at 5. I’m calling it.
scottt - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#387313) #
Everybody is likely trying to get their pick to sign for under slot, but it's probably a hard fight if the pick is the best player available at that point. Unless, maybe, there is some sort of early agreement.
It's a grey zone nobody wants to talk about.

KC has been looking for a position player, though.
They have a long rebuild in front of them.

PeterG - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#387314) #
Longenhagen just posted final mock.....still has Meyer to Jays.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#387315) #
KC has been burned with position players before (for example, Bubba Starling, selected #5 overall in 2011). No guarantee they’ll select Veen to address an area of need.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#387316) #
I still think it’s Myer but if the Royals shake things up it could be Veen.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#387318) #
I'm hoping the Jays select Meyer or Veen.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#387319) #
I'm torn on several issues and levels about this unique Draft.

In note form:

1) We are told the first tier is three deep. The second tier? I haven't seen a serious article discussing it. The third tier, etc.? I don't know - BUT - I rally hope the Jays do!

2) Will MLB decide that saving 60 million(ish) is a good deal and only have 5 rounds next year too? Clearly, the owners like going into their counting rooms and counting their coin more than spending it on something as unreliable as baseball players.

3) We keep hearing that HS kids will be more likely to go to Uni - are we sure? If I was a good HS player and knew that 500 to 600 EXTRA TOP HS players would be heading to Uni would I turn down a million five to go to Uni and risk getting lost in the increased competition and perhaps having 50 to 60 of those 500 to 600 players really shining and pushing me down out of the top 5 rounds?

4) Back in the day they would get a guy in the 30(ish) round, Tellez as an example, and pay him way over slot - not because no one knew he was out there but everyone thought he was going to Uni.

5) It is going to take real guts to turn down a million + IF MLB keeps to five rounds next year. The drop off from a million to 20 grand is staggering. At least in the low rent district I live in!

6) I would not be unhappy if the Jay's decided to get a guy rated 10-12th for a million under slot and use the extra dosh to make some real good HS player, one everyone is thinking is going to go to Uni, think twice about pissing a million large down the crapper.

7) I have a feeling this Draft is going to be the most interesting ever!

8) I have a feeling the postmortem of this Draft is going to be the most interesting ever too!
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#387320) #
I mean ultimately while with the Cubs, Farrels team went way off the draft board quite often early in the draft.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#387321) #
Have not been paying attention but here's my two cents - Shapiro has stated numerous times that he likes to "spread the risk",Shane Farrell's recommendations from his area were rather conservative and the draft is said to be deep especially in college pitching - I'm expecting 3 college picks,1 Juco and 1 HS.

Aside from the top 3, I don't think I would pay the Jay's full slot to anyone else - If the jays draft Nick Gonzales I'd be underwhelmed as only his hit tool is a plus and he's unlikely to stay at short - I like Veen, though his likely move to a corner does take some shine off his ceiling and Meyer is ok, though I'm always wary of short RHP (his listed 6' is said to be generous).

Wise men say only fools rush in but I think this is an excellent year for the Jays to make a pure upside play and grab a couple of top HS arms in their 5 picks, spreading the pool money - the spring before the draft is when I think HS arms pump up the volume and overexert themselves trying to move up the draft board, so the fact that they have not been pitching I view as plus in relation to injuries, this regime has done a solid job in developing their HS arms and with the depth of the more known college arms, HS arms may drop and there will be solid college arms available in the 4/5 rounds and UDFA.

Will be very interested to see the different strategies employed by teams in rounds 3-5 - Also how well the Jays do in the UDFA market where with the 20K limit, how prospects/agents view an organisation may be the deciding factor.
scottt - Wednesday, June 10 2020 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#387358) #
Shane Farrell starts his Blue Jays career in spectacular fashion, by doing what anybody would have done.

Really excited. I wish I could watch a game too.
John Northey - Saturday, June 13 2020 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#387467) #
It was a fun draft - I bet MLB keeps it to 5-10 rounds from now on as there really isn't a need for more. Guys in the 11th and beyond are mostly filler and fliers - seeing if a guy who said he wouldn't sign will (like Tellez). The benefit to MLB is significant by limiting it (short term cash) and will make the draft stronger in the long run as more kids go to university/college instead of pro right away thus cutting costs further as they'll be a lot closer to the majors after 2-4 years in school.

Players won't care as they are looking out for MLers not high school and college kids. I see an international draft coming up too with similar limits - 5-10 rounds, then extremely limited bonuses after that. Maybe even upping the age to match the US players so you'd have to be done high school or 18+ to sign. That gets rid of a lot of the risk and older players need fewer years in the system. With a shrunken minor league system that makes a ton of sense. No more paying kids to play in the Dominican or elsewhere, only when they are ready for A ball. Teams with better scouting setups won't like it, but those who are wanting to save money will love it.
scottt - Saturday, June 13 2020 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#387468) #
It's pretty hard to survive on that 20K signing bonus and while it's fine now because they're not playing, they'll need more than 5 players a year to field minor league teams.
scottt - Sunday, June 14 2020 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#387477) #
Apparently, Baltimore also approached Gonzales about accepting an underslot deal.
Baltimore is said to have had eyes on signing Nick Bitsko at #30 before the Rays picked him up at #24.

The Yankees had only 3 picks since signing Cole which hasn't really worked to their advantage so far.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 17 2020 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#387538) #
Scottt - very good point, but each year you add 5 guys, AAA and AA are always full of guys near the majors, these are to fill the A/rookie league teams. You get the 5 draftees, lets say 5 International Free Agents, then the rest are really floatasm - to fill the roster. Lets say you need 50 of those each year to fill in holes in those 2 teams. MLB getting rid of so many teams will make this less of an issue going forward (used to be 7 to 8 teams to fill now just 4). Indy leagues always find people to fill it. I doubt MLB will have any trouble finding 50 decent players to fill those lower level teams. Fewer out of high school, more out of college I'd expect which is cheaper for MLB in the long run (less likely to be getting into trouble, don't need a scholarship).

To be honest, I expect a 10 round draft from now on. The rest will have a small bonus so a lot less of late round guys like Tellez who scare off teams with high demands, now will need to go to college. The advantage for MLB is high as now colleges will do a lot of the minor league work now done by those 3-4 extra teams. Plus less risk as fewer high schoolers will get drafted unless they are extremely high on talent (1st round quality) or known to be wanting to play pro ball thus low bonus needed. Expect ML players to be 22-24 for youngest and a lot fewer 20 year olds like Vlad (which are rare as is). Also expect the International FA to shift to a draft more limited than now by far (similar but lower limits).
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