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Quick, before the old thread hits 300 comments.


(And yes, O.G. Anunoby may be the OG, but Kyle Lowry is a living god. Did you see that?)

And a word to anyone displeased that young Vladdy isn't hitting .330 with 15 HRs. When most baseball players were his age, they were dreaming of reaching AAA. Next year. Patience, grasshopper.
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rpriske - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#389941) #
Sam Gaviglio has been released.

Brandon Drury has been assigned to Rochester.

No, I didn't get those backwards.
Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#389942) #
Concur about Kyle Lowry's pass.  The whole play had a Franco Harris Immaculate Reception feel to it. 
Magpie - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#389945) #
I haven't watched a play so often since a certain bat got flipped....

This Merryweather... not bad.
krose - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#389947) #
Damn! Did the 300th deed.
Magpie - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#389948) #
This Merryweather... not bad.

Sorry. Oh well, now he's got an ERA.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#389949) #
Roark has been a disappointment even by his mediocre standards. Personal feelings may well be clouding my judgement, but once he finished with the bottom of the order, 2 on, one out, I would have pulled him. Second game in a row Charlie left him in and 2nd game in a row he's proved Charlie wrong.
krose - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#389950) #
Wonder if Buck could help Dan with pitch selection. Seems like the Sox know whatís coming.
krose - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#389951) #
With Panik and Shaw looking improved, is catcher now the weakest position?
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#389952) #
Messy, but mission accomplished. On to game 2.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#389954) #
I was thinking earlier that somebody is in danger of losing a rotation slot and in a competitive world that looks like Roark despite the multi year deal.
krose - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#389955) #
WAR
Jansen 0.0
McGuire -0.6
scottt - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#389956) #
Roark isn't so bad. Let's see what Stripling has.
bpoz - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#389957) #
Twins beat the Tigers.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#389958) #
Stripling hasnít been exactly mowing down a AAA quality Boston lineup.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#389959) #
Reese McGuire is now providing subpar fielding to go along with a non existent bat. Call up Kirk!
rtcaino - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#389960) #
I was thinking earlier that somebody is in danger of losing a rotation slot and in a competitive world that looks like Roark despite the multi year deal.

Been trying to willfully disregard that deal. 12 mill a year, ouf.

John Northey - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#389961) #
A single play does not dictate a players fate normally, but for McGuire this might be the last straw for the Jays. Depending how Kirk is doing in practices they might just say 'screw it' and flip the two. McGuire has no bat, and showed poor judgement there. When you are hitting sub 100 you need to be perfect on defense or you can't stick around. I was cheering him on but it is time to either call up Kirk or Joseph. This is a playoff race, not time to wait for your backup catcher to figure out which end of the bat to hold, or to figure out if he can stop having brain farts.
John Northey - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#389962) #
Roark is owed $12 mil next year, but this year was reduced thanks to COVID for which the Jays must be thankful. In truth he has been just a bit below his normal, but not by a lot. This guy is a 4th starter, 3rd in a good year. But with Ryu, Anderson, Walker, and now Stripling there isn't a lot of room in 2020 or 2021. Once Pearson is healthy and with Merryweather being solid in starts (a shame they haven't stretched him out more) and now SRF looking darn good there is lots of depth. Not to mention Shoemaker if he comes back, and Thornton in 2021 (would rank him below Roark). Simeon Woods Richardson might be ready in 2021 at some point too, as could Alek Manoah, not to mention Anthony Kay has been solid in the pen this year and has earned a shot at the rotation. I'm sure there are others I'm not thinking of, but the point is there is no shortage of others available. I suspect Roark will be traded this winter as other teams could use a half decent 3/4 starter, even if the Jays eat some of that salary in order to get a decent prospect back.
rtcaino - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#389963) #
ITALICS BEGONE
rtcaino - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#389964) #
Did that work? I left it open before it seems...
John Northey - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#389966) #
Thanks rtcaino.

So has anyone told Montoyo that the Jays are in a playoff chase yet? Using Font in a 1 run game, letting Fisher hit for himself with the bases loaded in a 1 run game late- he is 0 for 7 now since coming back from injury with a sac fly. If that isn't the time to bring up your biggest hitter on the bench then when is? Yeah, Vlad flopped in the 7th but at least there was a chance he'd do something, or at least take a walk. Use Panik in the 7th for McGuire instead then.

I'd like to see SRF kept up and Font sent down/released after this game, and Fisher also sent down/released and Jonathan Davis up as he would be more useful as he is a solid pinch runner/defensive replacement. With the team in a playoff race it is time to stop fooling around with guys who you are waiting to see if they will become what you hoped they would. So 3 moves - McGuire replaced by Kirk (or Joseph), Font replaced by SRF (showing far more imo), and Fisher by Davis (more useful on this team). Yeah, then no real pinch hitter on the bench but if Kirk can hit or Jansen is starting to then it won't be a big issue especially once Bichette is back on Monday.
uglyone - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#389967) #
So Montoyo just "felt like fisher would hit a HR today".

And to think people accused Gibber of being a "hunch" manager.
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#389968) #
Fisher has hardly played but he has a good eye and the pitcher was pretty wild.

I don't think that would have made much of a difference.
Maybe the best move not made was just bunting over with McGuire to stay out of the double play instead of bringing in Vlad.

Boston's AAA hitters were really good. Even Merryweather  had troubles.
Still the Yankees also split their doubleheader.

SRF was alright. His fastball looked like it was rising.
Montoyo saved Yamaguchi. I guess he would have been the overtime pitcher. Probably not the best role for him.

Grichuk has cooled down. Gurriel has heated up a bit.
Shaw has looked decent in Fenway. Bichette looked really good during BP and fielding practice. Didn't miss any balls.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#389969) #
I have bad mouthed Joe Panik recently but he has done much better at the plate over the last week and I would have rather seen him than Fischer in the sixth inning with the bases loaded last night.

When Cavan Biggio gets two strikes on him, he should be swinging at anything close. He's been getting some strikeouts lately that were balls by the pitch tracker but that doesn't necessarily mean that the umpires are going to agree with him.
christaylor - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#389970) #
Biggio is that rare bird of a young player whose OBP-AVG is about a full 100 points on the good side. No hitting coach would suggest he shift his approach to "with two strikes swing at anything close". It will be completely unsurprising when in a few years, umps are giving him those calls most of the time. That said, he may also be wearing a Yankee uniform at that time.
Jonny German - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#389971) #
Speaking of a young player with a good batting eye and patient approach, how aboutÖ Lourdes Gurriel??? No really! Over his last 13 games he has 10 walks! And 9 Ks! Over the same stretch 4 doubles and 4 homers, a 1.066 OPS.

The 10 walks in 13 games are:
- 1 more than he managed in 65 games as a rookie
- Half as many as he collected in 84 games last year.
- 7 more than he collected in his first 23 games this year.
85bluejay - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#389972) #
In the minors, Vlad seemed to be a man amongst boys - in the majors, Vlad seems to be a boy amongst men.
bpoz - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#389973) #
Well said 85bluejay. Yesterday in game 1 he rounded 1B and chose to go back rather than risk being out at 2B. He is learning.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#389974) #
The Blue Jays have 10 position players with positive fWAR so far this season- Hernandez, Biggio, Bichette, Gurriel Jr., Grichuk, Tellez, Guerrero Jr., Jansen, Shaw and Panik.  Those are the players that I want to see in the lineup almost every day for the rest of the season, with Panik for Bichette until he returns. The doubleheader is done and they have days off Sep 10 and 14, so time to put pedal to the metal.  

Charlie Montoyo and Pete Walker will earn their salaries figuring out how to best use the pitching staff.  They've done a good job of it so far. Chase Anderson has made a pretty good case to be the club's 3rd best starting option after Ryu and Taijuan Walker, and he could cement that with a solid outing today.  After that, it's pretty tough- I'd go tandems myself but I know that the club isn't fond of them.
krose - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#389975) #
Couldnít agree more 85. Maturity will be an important contributor to his skill development. Vladdy makes me think of VW.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#389976) #
Incidentally, the 10 position players I mentioned are also the only 10 players on the club with decent Statcast numbers offensively.

I see that I missed that the club has a doubleheader against the Phillies on the 18th.  You really ought to give Jansen one of those games off and probably one other (in the final series against the O's when hopefully it doesn't matter). 
bpoz - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#389977) #
Maturity/experience is a big factor that arrives (if ever) with playing time.

So look at Rowdy!! He has played 2018, 19 and 20. The bb/K is a lot better, among other things, which may mean that he is having professional/long ABs. Making the pitcher work for it. Then again the pitching this year is mostly bad because of short outings by just about everyone (that is my theory). Maybe I am cherry picking or SSS.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#389978) #
Lost in the "why didn't Vlad hit for Fisher?", is another question. Why was Vlad on the bench in the first place? He'd just had a day off Wednesday.
Game 1 he did get a hit, but also struck out twice and did not look good doing so. His 2nd K was especially ugly and totally out of character, chasing a pitch down and away. Like a foot off the plate away.

It was made public that Montoyo and Joseph separately chewed out the team for their sloppy play after the Miami series. Not made public was what was said to Vlad after that blunder the very next day. It seemed to me his head was not right in game 1 and if so, explains Vlad being benched as long as possible in game 2.

grjas - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#389979) #
ďChase Anderson has made a pretty good case to be the club's 3rd best starting option after Ryu and Taijuan WalkerĒ.

Thatís a pretty good looking 1-3 based on results to date; 4 and 5 are less clear but the bullpen is so solid, with many strong multi inning guys to supplement. With Gaviglio Gone and Font, presumably, about to go when Giles returns there shouldnít be any weak spots. Given potential returns for Shoemaker, Pearson and /or Romano later in the month, there are a lots of good options. Not often Over the years that we have had this much strength and depth on the pitching staff, though clarity for 4 and 5 SPís would help. Kudos to the FO.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#389980) #
Rewatched the 4 hits off Merryweather. None looked close to middle-middle, all on the edges of the zone, but they were all squared up. Almost seems the Red Sox knew what was coming.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#389981) #
Thought Experiment:

Jays starting 3B J.Donaldson in the 3rd year of a 4x$30m contract.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#389982) #
What I meant, christaylor, by Biggio swinging at anything close, is having the ability to foul off a close two-strike pitch rather than stand letting it go by and hoping the umpire calls it right. I agree that umpires will eventually respect his eye at the plate and give him calls, or maybe the robo-umps, as rumoured, will be in place in a few years and Biggio will get the right calls then.

Also, the image of Biggio in a Yankees uniform makes me sick.
Glevin - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#389983) #
"After that, it's pretty tough- I'd go tandems myself but I know that the club isn't fond of them."

I don't think that's true anymore. The Jays have used a lot of bullpen games this year. Merryweather, Kay, Stripling, Ray, Hatch, and even SRF if he's around I think would all be good in this scenario.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#389984) #
Did anyone notice that Nelson Cruz is 40 years old and in 39 games has 13 home runs, is batting.331 and has an OPS of 1.075 ?
Kasi - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#389985) #
On Donaldson sure when he's on the field he would be an upgrade for sure. I wouldn't mind him as a player but as a clubhouse presence with a bunch of young guys I think he has the same issue or worse than Stroman did. He was notorious for being an asshole to younger players. Anyway sure I wouldn't mind him but I think there is better usages of 30 million dollars out there.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#389986) #
That's true, glevin, but my feeling was that the club saw the "bullpen games" as a necessity  due to the injuries and the absence of "proven starters" like Walker, Stripling and Ray behind Ryu (and Roark and Anderson).  "Bullpen games" as a term conveys that, rather than the more positive "tandem starters".  Montoyo used that term even when Merryweather went 2 and Yamaguchi went 4 behind him. 
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#389987) #
How many teams have actually used the "tandem starter" thing? IIRC, the Rockies might have, but it only lasted a short while.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#389988) #
Even the opener/main event breakdown  would be fine. That would be a lot better description of the Merryweather/Yamaguchi game than a bullpen game. Tampa has, of course, used openers extensively.
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#389989) #
Merryweather might have been tipping, but that doesn't seem likely since all hitters were replacement.

Some vets in Boston's lineup are struggling mightily.

John Northey - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#389990) #
As we get into September and are getting used to the 10 man bullpen (thank goodness for the 3 batter rule). I'm wondering what 2021 will look like. Will players and managers push for a 28 man roster to be permanent? For the owners it could be a carrot to dangle in order to get a harder cap...er...luxury tax put in place. Each player added is like adding an expansion team, but at a lower average salary since bench guys tend to be closer to league minimum. If back to 26 then the Jays will have tough choices this winter as that would mean cutting 2 pitchers (13 man staff was to be the limit)

Rotation: Ryu/Roark/Anderson/Stripling - are all signed for 2021 or in arbitration still, while Pearson & Thornton are both under team control. Shoemaker and Walker are free agents.

Bullpen:
Free Agent: Bass, Giles, Ray
Team option for 21: Dolis
Team Control (year through): Cole (23), Romano (25), Font (23), Hatch (rookie), Kay (rookie), Yamaguchi (rookie, signed for 2021), Waguespack (rookie), Borucki (24), Merryweather (rookie), SRF (25)

So 11 guys in the pen either signed for 2021 or are rookies/arbitration/options. Plus 3 signed for the rotation plus 3 in arbitration or pre-arb. Before getting into kids on the farm who might be ready. Phew. Cutting that down to 13 will be tough as many are doing well and I have to think the Jays will try to resign Bass and Giles and maybe Walker too. Shoemaker and Ray are most likely long gone once the year is over.

If everyone is healthy the playoffs will be tough to cut to just 15 pitchers. Who do you keep? Ryu/Anderson/Walker are starting for sure with Roark/Stripling both fighting for the 4th and final slot for a playoff rotation. Pearson will be in the pen if healthy fighting for a slot with many. Giles, Bass, Dolis, Cole, Romano, should all be locks with Hatch, Kay, Yamaguchi, Borducki all looking like near locks leaving two slots for Pearson, Merryweather, SRF, Ray, Font, Waguespack, and anyone else who gets into the mix (whoever doesn't get into the rotation for example). Assuming the Jays go with a 15 man staff, although they might go to 14 so they can have more speed (Davis) or a 3rd catcher for the playoffs.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#389991) #
That makes no sense.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#389992) #
Gurriel Jr has cut down his swing percentage on pitches outside of the zone and his swinging strike rate. The Jays have been patient with power hitters like Gurriel, Tellez, Grichuk and Hernandez and have been rewarded with improved discipline in their primes.

Magpie - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#389993) #
I guess Charlie doesn't believe in batter-pitcher matchups. Cavan Biggio is 4-5 with a HR against Ryan Weber.

He's getting the night off, along with Gurriel.
Magpie - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#389994) #
Roster stuff. Caleb Joseph to the active roster (Giles to the 45 day DL to make room) and Reese to the taxi squad.

Beat it, kid.
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#389995) #
Is Giles' placement retroactive?
John Northey - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#389996) #
Wait a minute - Gurriel sitting and Fisher playing after his multiple O fers so far? When your LF is batting 9th (and should be) there is a problem. Of course, only 20 PA this year in LF were not by Gurriel, and he had 9 PA as a DH. So I can see giving him a rest, but geez. Giving Biggio a night off seems a poor idea. So far, after 38 games, Biggio, Vlad, and Teoscar have appeared in every game - Gurriel missed 2, Grichuk 4. For 2021 the Jays need to find a good 4th OF imo - Fisher, McKinney, Alford, Davis are not good 4th's all are really 5th OF'ers - guys you have a very specialized role for. Of course, McKinney and Fisher aren't even good for that. Lets hope Fisher proves me wrong and has a big game.

Glad to see Joseph up. As much as I'd love to see Kirk I can see why the Jays would use the vet instead. You want to save that 40 man slot this winter if you can, and save an option on Kirk. McGuire has just been too bad for too long. -0.5 WAR in just 19 games is quite the trick. A -42 OPS+ will do that. 50% CS is nice (4 caught out of 8) but 3 errors "leads" the league at catcher. Ugh. His 4 sac bunts is #1 in the AL by 1 over 2 O's. Jansen is tied for 4th.
PeterG - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#389997) #
Giles is retroactive to July 27. He can be activated September 10.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#389998) #
Needless to say, I am not a fan of today's lineup. Villar shouldn't be in the lineup  and certainly not batting first. The analytics guys have to read him the riot act. Luis Aparicio leading off in the 60s because he stole  30 bases in the late 60s was a bad idea, but it was not widely understood. We are 50 years on from that.
Kasi - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#389999) #
Guess that AAA lineup can still hit some home runs and score and all.
Glevin - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#390000) #
2 more outs on the bases today. It really is incredible.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#390001) #
Not incredible for Villar. Just another day at the office.

Surprised about Rowdy though.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#390002) #
" Beat it, kid."

Uh, are you referring to McGuire's legal trouble this past spring?
Magpie - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#390003) #
Who, me?

Yamaguchi was faltering last inning. Come on, Charlie.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#390004) #
The Win Probability in this game has swung from 96.2% in favour of the Red Sox (bottom 5th) to 82.2% in favour of the Jays (top 7th). It swung back in favour of Boston in the bottom of the 8th, but is now 78.8% in favour of Toronto (after the BoSox failed to cash any runs).

Still one inning to go.
christaylor - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#390005) #
Sure and let's add the Jays beating the Royals and the Clevelands in 15/16 to that thought experiment too... idk the past is the past and 2020 is not a true baseball season. Should we add signing Bautista as a reliever because the Jays just blew a game late?
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#390006) #
That was extremely frustrating
BlueJayWay - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#390007) #
Are the Blue Jays destined to play nothing but one run/extra inning games for the rest of eternity, or what? I don't understand what's happening here. It's like they somehow got wedged in some kind of Groundhog Day scenario and can't get out of it.
Everyone else lost. That was a perfect opportunity to gain a game on everyone.
John Northey - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#390008) #
Well, that was frustrating. Anderson didn't have it, Yamaguchi did great for 3 but was pushed 1 batter longer than he should've but Kay did the job. Bass didn't have it though. Geez that baserunning though...
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2020 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#390009) #
Yamaguchi's 1 run in 3 innings was fine. Bass didn't have it tonight.
They still came back from a bad start by Anderson and fought to the end.

You have to use the bench players and rest everybody a bit.
That part worked out pretty well as they scored 8.

There's one ball that Fisher should have caught but played on a hop.
Otherwise he hit a double and walked.

Let's hope for a win tomorrow and going to New York tied with Ryu on the mound.

I don't understand the play on which Alford broke his elbow.
Did he just run into the wall chasing a homerun?

bpoz - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#390010) #
Good analysis by John N on the 2021 roster.

1) The FO will/needs to understand the implications of a full season and a partial season of 60, 100 or 120 games.

2) Payroll will not be a problem most likely. Tulo is off the books I believe. Rue, Roark and Anderson getting full pay for as little as 60 games is a little over $40 mil. Ryu will definitely stay and Roark also I think. Anderson may not stay.

3) Summer camp 2020 probably was not long enough to get fully ready to stay healthy. That is probably why there were more injuries and strains to pitchers arms.

4) After you load up on 40 man roster pitchers you have to put the extra pitchers on the 60 man pool. You cannot get good pitchers to agree to the 60 man pool.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#390011) #
Scottt, on the telecast last night they showed the play where Alford jumped against the wall trying to catch what was a home run ball. The announcers speculated that Alford's arm hit a supporting stanchion under the padding because the way he hit the wall didn't look different from other plays you see. Just an unfortunate break for a player who has had bad luck before.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#390012) #
Jonathan Villar bats second today, with Joseph and Fisher also in the lineup.  No Grichuk and no Teoscar today.

It's September and you are in a fight for a playoff spot, and you have 2 days off in the next 9.  Why on earth would you run with this lineup today?
PeterG - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#390013) #
Hernandez to have MRI today. News out of Boston, is that he may miss serious time.
Kasi - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#390014) #
The problem with this accelerated schedule and playing people all the time is that they get no time off to recover and aches and pains develop into something more serious. Hernandez has already missed parts of games recently with back issues although it seems this has more to do with his ribs, either from a catch or from a swing. But yes players do need time off and hopefully Bo is back in a couple days and his adding back to the lineup counters Teoscar's being absent.
bpoz - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#390015) #
Good thing we have depth in many places. If Hernandez misses time Biggio is a decent replacement in the OF. Fisher and McKinney will get some part time ABs at best I think. Panik can handle the IF defensively and seems to be improving offensively.

Every other team has this same sort of issue.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#390016) #
For a while last night there was a fan interference call.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#390017) #
Ray's start threatening to drop us to 3-4 since the deadline additions.
mathesond - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#390018) #
"Ray's start threatening to drop us to 3-4 since the deadline additions."

This never would have happened if Bergen was still in the organization.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#390019) #
Fisher with the clutch 10 ft dribbler. 5-4 Jays!
krose - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#390020) #
Has Rowdy past Vladdy in depth chart at first base? Rowdyís approach sure looks mature.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#390021) #
Rowdy may be the most improved Blue Jay this season.
krose - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#390022) #
This year WAR.
Rowdy 0.5
Vlad 0.2
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#390023) #
Oh Rowdy you beautiful big boy.

My favorite Jay. Please keep being good.
Kasi - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#390024) #
With the top of our lineup having so many power hitter/low OBP/streaky hitters itís really important for the bottom of the lineup to get on base. Panik and Shaw have been really good lately and I hope Fisher can keep getting on base. Having guys on for Grichuk/Vlad/Rowdy/Bo/Gurriel/Teoscar is super important cause all those guys can hit a home run at any time.

Now if we could just get our catchers to not be a black hole along with this weíd be set.
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#390025) #
This year WAR.
Vlad 0.2

Of course, Vlad is still just 21 years old, four years younger than Rowdy. Exactly four years younger, as the two guys actually share the same birthday (16 March) and what are the odds a team would have a L-R platoon at 1B/DH of two players with the same birthday?

Obviously, a team of destiny.
krose - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#390026) #
Rowdy .283 .354 .535
Vlad .295 .338 .455
krose - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#390027) #
Handedness of the pitcher doesnít seem to make a big difference to either of these guys. But yeah Mags, two good looking young guys.
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#390028) #
Somehow, I made Rowdy disappear while I was copying and pasting there. This awesome power. Such a burden. Must try to use it for good.

I think I'll start telling myself that Rowdy is responding to the challenge (and the mockery) I issued to him in last year's Report Card. Yeah. That's the ticket.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#390029) #
Why are we comparing rowdy to vladdy again?

Can't we be happy having both?
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#390030) #
...or what Magpie just said.
Kasi - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#390031) #
I donít think Vlad will ever live up to that hype but he can be a solid enough regular.
krose - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#390032) #
Just a spitball here, but would the Dodgers part with Ruiz for Vladdy?
Cynicalguy - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#390033) #
Why does Fisher seem like he's new to baseball when fielding balls in the outfield? He must have the worst instincts for a Blue Jays outfielder in some time approaching Colabello levels.
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#390034) #
The fact that Vlad is already a productive major league hitter, I would submit, is living up to the hype. It's just unusual that a player so young can play so well. The potential for further growth is almost limitless, unless it involves a lot of infield hits, and that's pretty exciting.

But we've already seen him play 162 games and it's just hard not to think that this is who he is, this is what he's going to be. And Jays fans have been burned. Brett Lawrie was a more impressive 21 year old than this, and that didn't end well. When Travis Snider was 21, he looked like he'd be a player. He wouldn't.
grjas - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#390035) #
Can we please banish Font to the hinterlands? Can we? Please?
krose - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#390036) #
If both Vlad and Tellez continue to hit it becomes difficult to keep them both in the lineup. DH will be used to help the legs on other players. In all seriousness Iím with you Mags. Vlad would be the sensible one for 1B and part time DH.
Kasi - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#390037) #
The problem Magpie is that heís not a complete player. He is a negative defender and one of the worst base runners in baseball. That pretty much puts his ceiling as Nelson Cruz or late career Cabrera, and Iíve seen nothing of Vlad to show he has anywhere close to their batting eye. What he does have is a ton of power so I see him getting a few 3-4 WAR seasons but thatís it. To do more will need more dedication to the game than heís shown so far.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#390038) #
Vlad may or may not have lived up to the hype, but he's not hitting quite as well as his minor league record would suggest.  There's plenty of time for him to develop and there's nothing wrong with having Tellez and Guerrero Jr. at first base and DH in some combination as long as you have their bats in the lineup.
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#390039) #
That pretty much puts his ceiling as Nelson Cruz or late career Cabrera

When Cruz was Vladdy's age, he was hitting .276/.316/.397 for Vancouver in the Northwest League, and wouldn't establish himself as a major leaguer for another seven years. He wasn't done developing.

Since 2017, when the decline suddenly kicked in at age 34, Cabrera has hit .268/.343/.402 - I think Vlad is matching that, at very least, already. At age 21.

He might not develop from this point. Sometimes they really are fully formed by age 20. But far more often, they aren't.
Kasi - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#390040) #
Yeah I donít think itís bad to put him out there. I think heíll be a solid enough regular. But heíll never be his dad or a superstar or MVP candidate unless something really changes with his approach to baseball. If you think of the modern day superstar theyíre good in all phases of the game. The fact he just isnít a factor in 2 already really puts a ton of stress on his bat. Hopefully he can start creeping past the 130 WRC mark and be our next EE since I think thatís the best case scenario for him.
Kasi - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#390041) #
Yeah Iím not sure I agree with that Magpie. So many good MLB players (Especially hitters) are good right off the bat now. But I do hope youíre right because I want Vlad to be better. I just donít see it.
grjas - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#390042) #
The old adage...no lead is safe in Fenway. The lineup better come out to play in the 9th.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#390043) #
All age 20 hitting seasons is Jays history:

Olerud 8pa, 0.0b%, 12.5k%, .429babip, 113wrc+
Snider 80pa, 6.3b%, 28.8k%, .400babip, 110wrc+
Vladdy 514pa, 8.9b%, 17.7k%, .308babip, 105wrc+
Moseby 430pa, 5.8b%, 19.8k%, .269babip, 70wrc+
Hodgson 46pa, 6.5b%, 26.1k%, .286babip, 64wrc+
Wells 92pa, 4.3b%, 19.6k%, .319babip, 61wrc+
Ainge 331pa, 3.6b%, 17.5k%, .284babip, 45wrc+
Lee 43pa, 4.7%, 20.9k%, .258babip, 20wrc+
Wilborn 14pa, 7.1b%, 50.0k%, .000babip, -83wrc+
Green 6pa, 0.0b%, 6.7k%, .000babip, -100wrc+


Looking at topline numbers, sustainability numbers, and PA, vladdy is the best 20yr old hitter in jays history... by a country mile.


Top 15 wrc+ Age 21 Jays seasons:

Lawrie 171pa, 9.4b%, 18.1k%, .318babip, 157wrc+
Bichette 212pa, 6.6b%, 23.6k%, .368babip, 142wrc+
Olerud 421pa, 13.5b%, 17.8k%, .297babip, 122wrc+
Delgado 2pa, 50.0b%, 0.0k%, .000babip, 115wrc+
Vladdy 160pa, 10.0b%, 16.3k%, .279babip, 114wrc+
Pompey 43pa, 9.3b%, 27.9k%, .308babip, 105wrc+
Snider 276pa, 10.5b%, 28.3k%, .316babip, 96wrc+
Griffin 689pa, 5.8b%, 8.6k%, .312babip, 87wrc+
Fernandez 38pa, 5.3b%, 5.3k%, .281babip, 85wrc+
Lopez 192pa, 6.3b%, 20.3k%, .304babip, 83wrc+
Barfield 100pa, 4.0b%, 19.0k%, .270babip, 77wrc+
Moseby 412pa, 5.8b%, 20.9k%, .275babip, 74wrc+
Gose 189pa, 9.0b%, 31.2k%, .340babip, 70wrc+
Izturis 140pa, 1.4b%, 10.7k%, .291babip, 69wrc+
Bell 168pa, 3.0b%, 16.1k%, .252babip, 65wrc+


Looking at topline and sustainability numbers, the closest comp to vladdy at age 21 is Olerud.

Of the 2 guys significantly ahead, both were late seaskn callups. And while Lawrie's line was rock solid right across, bichette's had much more questionable underlying numbers which might effect sustainability.

A couple others came kinda close in topline performance but both pomoey and snider were in much smaller roles and both already had glaringly scary strikeout numbers.



So overall, Vladdy is the best 20yr old hitter in Jays history, and at worst the 4th best 21yr old, with Olerud as his closest comp at that age.
Kasi - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#390044) #
I donít particularly care about him being good compared to previous Jays hitters. I more care about his comparisons to the other young stars today and in that a 105 WRC just doesnít cut it. Tatis, Acuna, Turner, etc.

And of course WRC is just offensive numbers. His fielding and base running are both severe disadvantages.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#390045) #
Well we'll see how long Tatis and Acuna can sustain those K% and Babip numbers.
scottt - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#390046) #
Having a good 1B and a good DH is not a problem. Instead of rotating guys through the DH slot you give them the day off and use them to pinch hit. Basically, you give more ABs to the hot players and you rest the ones hurting.

Guerrero is chasing too much. He'll come around eventually.

Fisher is a true burner, but he doesn't have great instincts.

At first base, Biggio will take off if he sees a pitch that looks like it will hit the dirt.
Other players will wait to see if the catcher can block it.

Longest 9 inning game in Blue Jays history. Take that Manfred!

This was the year to find out if Pearson can be a #1 or #2 and it doesn't look like he can so far.
Maybe Hatch can be given a chance to start, but the biggest need in the off season will be to find another top starter. They will also need to trade away a catcher, maybe for another bullpen guy.

Sometimes I wonder if Zeuch would be worse than the other starters.
The bar isn't so high. The Jays prefer to have someone who generate strikeouts, but when they leave after 4 with 4 to 6 runs, maybe a guy who generate soft contact ain't so bad.



Cracka - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#390047) #
Longest 9-inning game in team history today: 4 hrs, 23 mins. The Red Sox threw 225 pitches (9 BB); Jays threw 193 (7 BB). I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a fresh arm before the Yankees series, perhaps Patrick Murphy (replacing Font?).
John Northey - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#390048) #
225 pitches eh? Wimps - Check out Nolan Ryan 235 in a game he didn't complete but it must have damaged his arm as he only had another 3933 innings before he blew his arm out :)
grjas - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#390050) #
ďThis was the year to find out if Pearson can be a #1 or #2 and it doesn't look like he can so far.Ē

Huh?
John Northey - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#390051) #
4 games seems a bit too little to judge one way or the other for Pearson imo. First game was great, 2nd OK (5 IP 3 R), 3rd and 4th poor (12 R 9 ER over 6 1/3 IP) but I'm wondering if he was hurting for both. A kid hiding injuries is pretty common. I'd give him a shot in 2021 (maybe another start if healthy this year during the final weekend).

2021 rotation: Ryu, Anderson, Roark, Stripling, with 1 slot to be determined. Shoemaker is a free agent, as is Ray and Walker. So #5 before trades/free agents is a battle between Pearson, Thornton, Merryweather, Hatch, Kay, Waguespack, Borucki, Reid-Foley, and any rookies who progressed well in camp this summer. Good depth. Ideally get another top starter of course. Trevor Bauer will be expensive (7 starts, 2 shutouts this year), Masahiro Tanaka is interesting (stealing from the Yanks is always fun). Mike Minor is an interesting case - all star in 2019/some Cy votes, but horrid this year - sounds like a Jay target. Not much else beyond the guys here already or a trade (which could involve anyone).

If the Jays trade/sign a free agent I expect Roark to be cleared out to make room for a kid (assuming Anderson and Stripling both hold their slots). Like everyone else I'd rather have a strong arm there behind Ryu. Ideally through a trade for a guy with a few years of control as free agency is such a mess often. Might be able to sign Walker at a reasonable price though if he likes it here.
scottt - Sunday, September 06 2020 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#390052) #
I could see penciling Pearson as the 6th or 7th starter, but the health history is not there and anyway you look at it, he has not pitched many innings this year. Or any year.

2017 20 IP
2018 22 IP
2019 102 IP
2020 16 IP so far.

How many innings can he pitch in 2021 if he shows up healthy in camp?
Not 200. Maybe not much more than 100. They'll have to manage his innings very carefully.

Merryweather is in the same boat. Same thing for Borucki. Waguespack is a depth guy. Reid-Foley  is a reliever now. So they got Thornton, Hatch and Kay and Zeuch and Murphy. I suppose they can give those guys a shot and trade for another arm at the deadline if they are in it, but the biggest need for the team will be an establish #2 if they want to be a legit contender off the bat instead of taking a step back.

I don't expect Stripling, Roark and Anderson to block them from acquiring a better starter.
It's not going to be a great market for pitching.

Still got another 20 games to watch an see who does what.

Kasi - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#390056) #
Yeah I'd agree that both Pearson and Merryweather (along with Borucki and even Hatch) are all out as starters for this year. I think their best spot on the team is as 2-3 innings openers or follow ups to openers. Definitely valuable but I don't see much point into thrusting Pearson back into a starter role when he gets back and having him get injured again. Due to his innings issue like scott said I could see him doing the same thing next year but trying to get his innings close to 100 IP.
bpoz - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#390057) #
2020 is a great year for hoping to make the playoffs.

For 2021 basically 7 AL teams will be considered long shots. In the NL Pittsburgh and Arizona (Bumgarner) are out this year. Maybe Arizona will have a better shot next year.

In 2021 paying 100% salary for a partial season most likely does not sit well with any team. Of course they will not say that. The Jays had to take Ryu when he was available. So 4 years is pretty good. I thought Boras would go for more. Anderson at $9 mil for a partial 2021 is not good. FAs like T Walker may not get big paydays with the threat of a partial season. Incentive laden contracts could be very likely. There are others that could be the equal of Anderson that are cheap like Kay/Hatch. I would think that the FO and coaches will tell all the young pitchers that were SPs in the past to prepare in the off season as starters.

Regarding FAs of all levels, the good ones are most likely playing. So video of their games is available. Video of guys like Petricka and J Miller should be made available in the off season to all teams. I guess. Also they can do a tryout with interested teams sending a scout.

If you want to trade a good prospect like Kirk or not as good like R Adams or K Smith you can give video to interested parties.
scottt - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#390058) #
They could have an amazing bullpen again next year, but the roster will likely be down to 26.
They might be able to manage that with more off days and the Buffalo shuttle.
It's going to be pretty tough without at least another guy who can go 6 innings routinely.

Boston and NYY will have worse turn around in their pitching staff still.

The Rays are always interesting.
Adames doesn't get arbitration until 2022.
Kiermaier will make 11+M next year, just 1M more than this year pro-rated salary. Second on the team in bWAR.
Lowe is on a contract and will make 2.5M next year.
Snell will make 11M next year, up from pro-rated 7.6M this year.
Ji-Man Choi is arbitration eligible.
So is Hunter Renfroe, but he's not having a good year.
Morton's contract is up but he has a vesting option with the value going from 15M to 1M depending on the time he spent on the IL. They might just get a break there.

Kasi - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#390059) #
Interesting article here about how Rowdy has destroyed the Red Sox more than any other bitter in their history.

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/9/7/21425881/boston-red-sox-rowdy-tellez-fenway-toronto-blue-jays
John Northey - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#390060) #
The money issue is for once a plus for the Jays. Rogers has liquidity and when the team does well the money is instantly into their pockets as they own the team, the park, the TV station. Big incentive to win. If pitcher prices are low this winter the Jays can take advantage easily. Especially since a starter is pretty much all that is needed. Mix in being able to trade Roark if a better guy is brought in and the Jays could be in fantastic shape. Everything is dependent on how things go from now on of course.
uglyone - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#390061) #
Lol rowdy is my spirit animal even more than I thought.

Nice article Kasi.

rtcaino - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#390062) #
Of the 2 guys significantly ahead, both were late seaskn callups. And while Lawrie's line was rock solid right across, bichette's had much more questionable underlying numbers which might effect sustainability.

Lawrie's stellar introduction to the league has been referenced a couple of times now and it is definitely conjuring up some memories. I just recall how it seemed we had a sure-fire superstar on our hands. Canadian and all. Then, shortly thereafter, not.

Kasi - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#390063) #
Well yeah Laurie is a warning sign sure but in general young players will have a high babip since they hit the ball harder and are faster. Vlads issue isnít that heís not fast at all or a good base runner so he isnít going to take advantage of that like other young players.
Kasi - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#390064) #
Oops I meant his issue is. Lack of edit. Anyway he needs to be more patient and selective like he showed in the minors. Hopefully he can work his way into that over the next couple years.
uglyone - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#390065) #
Lawrie is a sad case of mental issues imo - I'm happy for him that he got a bit of a payday and I hope he invested it wisely.
bpoz - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#390066) #
Both Lawrie and Vlad and others currently, are joining a Jays rebuilding team. AA traded (and FA Martin) his way to success. The current team has not done that yet (Ryu so far).
rtcaino - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#390067) #
How many innings can he pitch in 2021 if he shows up healthy in camp? Not 200. Maybe not much more than 100. They'll have to manage his innings very carefully.

That said if the Jays are going to be protecting pitchers from the third time through the rotation, he should be fine. Health permitting. Skip a start here or there. Maybe send him to the bullpen towards the end of the year. Seems like not the worst way to acclimate a young pitcher to the majors.

scottt - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#390068) #
Vlad will eventually hit screaming liners to the outfield on a routine basis.
Eventually.

Borucki was a starter, so he's used to facing mostly right handed batters.
They are using him as a LOOGY. He's third pitch is a slider/cuter thingie, hard to use against lefties.
For some reason, he's not comfortable using his changeup against lefties.
That was always his best pitch. The long term outcome is not clear to me.

SRF has a decent fastball and a slider. He's not locating the fastball very well, but it moves a fair bit.
He seems to locate the slider better but it's a tight pitch, with little break and lateral movement.
It looks like he can get 3 outs, but  Cole is better because he has fastball command and his slider drops.
Cole is signed for 1 year but he only has 2 years of service time.
So, maybe they Jays can just offer him arbitration.

John Northey - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#390069) #
Hmm... something worth digging into - how 'home grown' were each of the 3 contending eras? The 83-93 era, the 15/16 one, and the current one? All 3 are very distinct with 0 crossover (amazingly from 16 to now there isn't a single player left I think).

BR has the current team with
  • Amateur Draft: 5 hitters, 3 pitchers
  • Amateur Free Agent: 2 hitters, 0 pitchers
  • Free Agency: 3 hitters, 7 pitchers
  • Purchased: 1 hitter, 1 pitcher
  • Rule 5 returned: 0 hitters, 2 pitchers
  • Traded: 8 hitters, 11 pitchers
  • Waivers: 0 hitters, 1 pitcher
Interesting eh? 10 developed from within, 10 free agents, 19 via trades, 5 other.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#390070) #
Lawrie is a sad case of mental issues imo

Yeah, those makeup issues played a big part, although his injury issues did as well. I was looking at another pair of former top 10 prospects that underwhelmed as Jays, Travis Snider and Colby Rasmus.

Rasmus was another with very public makeup issues.

Snider had the K issues, but it was the power that never developed that really did him in. His 1st 3 seasons, his ISO climbed as expected for starting at age 20 - 164, 178, 208. His next 3 seasons 128 was his highest. I remember him injuring his wrist in 2010, and also re-injuring it on multiple occasions. Statcast didn't start until his final season in the bigs, but his EV that year was Joe Panik this year.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#390071) #
Vladdy 2020:

EV: 91.5, LA: 4.3, Hard Hit% 47.9, K% 17.5, BB% 10.2, xWOBA 0.341

Yandy Diaz Career:

EV: 91.2, LA 1.9, Hard Hit% 43.9, K% 16.7, BB% 11.5, xWOBA 0.352

Vladdyis playing closer to a worse defending Yandy Diaz right now.

scottt - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#390073) #
I figure they are in better position now than in 2017.
They barely qualified for that 1 playoff game.

Interestingly, b-ref has their playoff odds at 83.1% and the Yankees at 90.6%.
But they also give the Astros a 10% chance to win the World Series.

bpoz - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#390074) #
Washington is basically tied for 2nd last. May be out soon. Soon they will start those games left until eliminated.

Washington probably expects to compete next year. They need pitching. They have 3 good SPs when healthy.

We can trade if we are looking to seriously compete and also not seriously compete. Sorry to be confusing with that statement. Romano, Kay, Hatch have an ML record now that is quite good/decent and therefore useful. We have experienced relievers in Yamaguchi, Dolis, Cole and Bass also useful. Still have SRF, Merryweather and a few other ready kids.

Carter Kieboom is someone they may part with.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#390075) #
Oblique strain for Teo. That's not good. Font on DL also. SRF and Jon Davis up.
Magpie - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#390076) #
Well, you can sure see why teams have always run at will on Ottavino.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#390077) #
I am honoured to have been able to watch this inning.
greenfrog - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#390078) #
What a rally in the bottom of the sixth. 10 runs plated. Still only one out. Jays now up 12-6.
krose - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#390079) #
Wow! Record runs/inning anyone??
Glevin - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#390080) #
This team is frustrating as hell but also a lot of fun. It's also easy to see how they improve a little bit pretty easily and stay a contender for many years.
electric carrot - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#390081) #
I like it that they bring in El Cessa after 10 runs. Great name for a reliever. He did cease the scoring.
Magpie - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#390082) #
Record runs/inning anyone??

Magpie - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#390083) #
Oops. Anyway, I know they've definitely done 11 runs in an inning a couple of times, but I don't know the team record.
John Northey - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#390084) #
Not sure on the record - checked a few games that came to mind- 1992 they scored 16 3 times, 11 or more 13 times total, but never 11 in an inning. 1993 12 times with 11+ but never 11 in an inning. 4 times in 1991 (none had 11 in an inning). I checked the big comeback game in 1989 vs the Red Sox (losing by 10 but ended up winning) but it was spread out.
John Northey - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#390085) #
Right now the Jays are the 5th seed in the AL (Twins better record, but 3rd in their division thanks to doormats KC and Texas) 1 1/2 behind Oakland for the 4th seed, 4 back of the blinking Rays for the AL East lead. Under the old system the Jays would be 1 1/2 back of the Twins for the last wild card slot. Yes, I like expanded playoffs.
Magpie - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#390086) #
I actually remembered listening to the one from the 80s on the radio, a late game in Seattle, when they went into the 9th down by a couple and scored 11. It turned out to be 20 July 1984. Moseby triple, Upshaw struck out, and the next ten batters reached on nine singles and a walk.

And on 25 July 2007, they took a 2-1 lead into the sixth and scored 11, Johnny Mac had a two run triple, Gregg Zaun had an RBI double and a three run homer. I don't remember that one at all, and for all I know I was there.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#390087) #
John, if Oakland wins the AL West, doesn't matter if we have the better record. They get one of the top 3 seeds along with the East and Central winner. Similarly the 3 2nd place teams get seeds 4-6.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#390088) #
Charlie Montoyo has already outlasted 10 MLB managers. Lots of Yankee fans hoping it will soon be 11.
John Northey - Monday, September 07 2020 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#390089) #
Good point hypobole - forgot Oakland was #1 in the west.

So the rankings at this moment...
  • #1-3 seeds (winners of divisions): Tampa (Jays back 4.5), ChiSox, Oakland
  • #4-6 seeds (2nd place): Cleveland (Jays back 3), Toronto, Houston (Jays up by 1 1/2)
  • #7/8 seeds (wildcards): Twins (Jays back 2), NYY (Jays ahead by 2)
  • #9/10 (out of playoffs): Baltimore (Jays ahead by 3.5), Seattle & Detroit (Jays ahead by 4)
Phew, gets complicated now doesn't it? Oakland currently beating Houston 3-0, all others up to date for today. Just 19 games left (8 vs Yankees, 3 Mets, 4 Phillies, 3 O's) with 14 in 13 days to end the regular season. Hopefully Giles, Pearson, and Romano are healthy for part of it at least. Getting those 3 back with the stress the staff has been under will be big - for rotating guys back and forth to the travel squad if nothing else. Plus the Jays just scored 12 without Hernandez or Bichette which is very big imo. This team is putting it together right when they need to and hopefully will be healthy for that final crazy two weeks. I'm sure the Jays are debating who goes up and down like a yoyo during that stretch right now (SRF, Kay, Hatch, Borucki, Yamaguchi, and Merryweather all have options Font doesn't but I doubt anyone goes for him now). Doubt Yamaguchi goes on the yoyo, or Hatch, but SRF, Merryweather, Kay, and Borucki I suspect are destined to bounce as guys get healthy (Pearson might be left in the minors once healthy at this point). I see SRF as a lock to be sent down, then Borucki most likely - it all depends on 1001 factors. Merryweather is most likely to be kept as he has been lights out most of the time. Kay is next for safety due to being a left hander. Waguespack could be in the mix too if needed. Lets hope the starters do their job so this isn't an issue. I could imagine the bench being shrunk to make it work too - Davis goes back down once Hernandez is healthy of course, then for Bichette it would be tough luck for Espinal. So to add an 11th reliever you'd need to give up on Fisher or Villar (hoping no one claims them as neither has options).
hypobole - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#390090) #
According to ESPN Stats and Info, the Yankees pitchers threw 67 pitches in the 6th inning, their most in a single inning since 2009, and the most by any MLB team in an inning this season.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#390091) #
I mean this can't be sustainable but when they're mostly young you can't necessarily rule it out....

SS Bichette 182wrc+
2B Biggio 126
RF Teoscar 163
1B Tellez 140
LF Gurriel 129
CF Grichuk 119
DH Guerrero 111
3B Shaw 97
C Jansen 76

UT Panik 103
OF Fisher 122
IF Villar 74
C Joseph 186

UT Drury -7
OF McKinney 284
IF Espinal 50
C McGuire -56


ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#390092) #
I've heard it mentioned several times on Blue Jay's games about Dante Bichette's influence on the player's mental approach to hitting. How many times last year did we see Blue Jay's batters have feeble 3 and 4 pitch at bats ? This year they actually seem to have a game plan when they come to the plate - look for a pitch to hit, lay off bad pitches, foul off close ones, take a walk instead of trying to hit the ball 600 feet.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#390093) #
(Twins better record, but 3rd in their division thanks to doormats KC and Texas)
Didn't get what you tried to say there. Twins don't play Texas.
The Angels are the worst of the 4th place teams.

There is 1 doormat in each division. Boston, KC and Texas.
Jays barely tied 5-5 against Boston, sadly.
The schedule is partly responsible. They came to Boston after the long break caused by the Marlins.
Also, they only played 2 of the series in Buffalo.

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#390094) #
The Bluejays now have the second highest WAR of all major league teams.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#390095) #
Ottavino said he couldn't get anyone to swing and miss.
Never happened before. His ERA jumped up to 7.82.

You can't stop watching this team. Anything can happen.
The Blue Jays are the best team in the state of New York.
I came really close when SRF couldn't throw a strike.
That bumped up his ERA to 1.59 and he picked up the win.
I hope he watched the bottom of that inning and learned something.

Merryweather was struggling to throw strikes with anything other than his fastball.
Easy 2 innings.

They sent Bass out there and he wasn't sharp at all.
The bullpen is pretty tired.
They could leave Walker out there even if he gets hit around.

Innings like this could not happen with Drury in the lineup.

And of course, Guerrero stole a base. The Yankees catcher was laughing behind that mask.

scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#390096) #
I expect they'll give Jonathan Davis a start against Happ.
Happ has always had bad splits.
Maybe sit Shaw.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#390097) #
It's not the first time that a big inning started with a fighting walk from Santiago Espinal. I didn't think that he had a playing career ahead of him before the season, but he has impressed me with his ability to learn. His numbers aren't much, but I'd bet that he has better in him.

scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#390098) #
There is a great team chemistry with Teoscar, Vlad and Lourdes having lots of fun together and Guerrero, Biggio and Bichette having progressed through the minors together. The FO is doing the right thing by seasoning with vets and not doing crazy trades.

It's funny how last years heroes haven't rebounded.
Washington is 15-25. Yankees loaded with Cole. Angels grabbed  Rendon and are 17-25.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#390099) #
"This year they actually seem to have a game plan when they come to the plate"

It's the 2 strike approach that more are using that has really stood out, as you described. Too many players don't have that (and it's not because teams don't try) but too many players won't deviate.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#390100) #
I hope the Jays are able to avoid playing the Indians in the first round - that top of the rotation scares me especially in a 3 game series.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#390102) #
It's the 2 strike approach that more are using that has really stood out

There was a conversation with Dante Bichette  in the Athletic just the other day about this very thing. Money quotes:

Weíve created such a Ďone approach,í one swing path, that if the pitcher makes a mistake, we hit a homer. If they donít make a mistake, we strike out.

I know when I was hitting coach with the Rockies, it was all Ďdo not leave your approach, same approach, same approach, same approach. Iím like, ĎMan, when did hitting become so much like that?í In my day it was about making adjustments, reading a pitcher, sitting on a pitch, hitting with two strikes, being able to be fluid in the box. So, my message was being able to make adjustments, how to make adjustments. Kids donít really know how to make adjustments nowadays because theyíre not taught to.

This really struck me because I remember when Dante played. The guy I remember, who came up with the Angels in the late 1980s, was kind of Jesse Barfield-lite - he hit some home runs, he struck out a lot, and he threw pretty well. But upon closer examination, Dante changed his game considerably when he got to the Other League. He had struck out in more than 20% of his PApps in his first years as a regular, which was a lot for that time. He'd cut that figure almost in half before he was done. So if there's anyone qualified to pass those skills along to people like Grichuk and Hernandez, he ought to be the man.
grjas - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#390103) #
Similar comments about Bichette in this Rowdy interview.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2020/09/07/the-jays-rowdy-tellez-is-finding-success-by-shedding-an-all-or-nothing-approach.html
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#390104) #
Man in White moved to Buffalo

theScore @theScore
10m
Yankees complain about lighting at Sahlen Field, tipped pitches after loss to Blue Jays. thesco.re/3heCOcW
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#390105) #
What was it in Baltimore over the weekend that afflicted the Yankees?  I notice that Andujar and Ford made errors on Sunday and Estrada made one on Saturday and Garcia in the second game on Friday.  Luke Voit didn't help matters yesterday. 

I think that their opposing team problem is Moreland.  Not Keith or Mitch, but Bunk. 
John Northey - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#390106) #
Poor Yankees crying. Typical - pretty sad, the Jays were playing in the same conditions and weren't complaining that the pitchers couldn't see the signs. The broadcasters pointed out how the Jays catcher had florescent tape on his finger nails so it was easy to see, but I couldn't see the Yankee catchers signs at all even on the TV broadcast most of the time so if the pitcher couldn't then it would be pretty hard for a 'man in white' to be passing those signs to the Jays hitters. I love the quote from the guy who couldn't get an out and let Vlad steal on him...

"Not getting swing and misses, it's either an indication that my stuff wasnít good, my location wasn't good, or that they had something on me. They either had a great approach or they knew what was coming, any of that."

I'd bet a lot more on his stuff not being good, including poor pitch selection, and the Jays using a good approach over the cheating idea. I mean, I was guessing right quite often and when that happens you know the pitcher is doing a poor job as I suck at that normally. But I was sitting watching and going 'fastball low', and bang there it was. You can't be that predictable to major league hitters or you get what happened.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#390107) #
Can't let this go without mention. Eric Hosmer has a fractured finger. His 137 wRC+ was the best of his 10 yr career, due to improving his launch angle.
Bottom of the 1st inning, one out, man on 1st. He attempts to bunt- with 2 strikes. Ball smashes into his finger holding the bat and goes foul. He's out at the plate, and probably out for the rest of the season. Out and out baffling.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#390108) #
I think it's more an indication of what the Yankees were doing last year, when anyone who joined their team instantly became a good hitter. Obviously, there was a guy on second most of the time, so they can feel paranoid about it.
If the Jays had an edge, they might have used it earlier and given Ryu a win.

rtcaino - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#390109) #
The Jays should have a cardboard cut out of a man in white sitting in the outfield with binoculars. At least when we play the Yankees.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#390110) #
Last year, there were 15 SB while Ottavino was on the mound, in just 66.1 IP. Only one AL pitcher allowed more runners to steal.

The year before, when he was with the Rockies, there were 24 bases stolen in 77.1 IP with Ottavino on the mound. The only NL pitchers who let more runners steal were Syndergaard and Matz in twice as many innings.

I'd say Vlad and Gurriel (and even Shaw was running later) simply picked the right guy.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#390111) #
In 3 games, 11 PAs, Vogelbach has an OPS  0f 1.101 with the Brewers.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#390112) #
If the Jays have home games in the playoffs will MLB want those games to be played in Buffalo given the lack of accomodation,media centre,sub-optimal lighting etc.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#390113) #
Love that idea - especially given the cardboard cutouts that are all over the park anyways. Doing that could get into their head for a moment and would give the TV and radio broadcasters some stuff to laugh about.

I guess I can see why Ottavino was shaken - he has allowed runs only 3 other times this year (twice just 1 run) in 16 games. His 17th he allowed more than all 16 other games. All 4 AB's last night against him resulted in hits, plus the 2 walks. Just 1 swinging strike, but the most he has had all year is 3 in a game (once). So his complaining about not getting swings and misses is wrong.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#390114) #
I dunno. They were talking about playoffs hubs earlier.
Would be silly to waste time on travel days...

John Northey - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#390115) #
Playoff hubs can work - but days off are still needed. Funny thing is the Jays would be advantaged if there weren't days off thanks to the workouts now (very used to playing non-stop) and the 6 man rotation.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#390116) #
"I think it's more an indication of what the Yankees were doing last year, when anyone who joined their team instantly became a good hitter. Obviously, there was a guy on second most of the time, so they can feel paranoid about it."

starting to get depressed thinking about how so much of baseball success may have just been a result of stealing signs, legally or otherwise.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#390117) #
The Yankees accusing another team of cheating is such an example of pot/kettle that it's almost laughable.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#390118) #
Sahlen callin'.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#390119) #
That big inning doesn't happen if they field properly, but Ottavino can't really say anything about that.
It's hard to comment in a loss unless it's to compliment the opponent or acknowledge your own personal shortcoming. Anything else sounds bad. That was one of the issues with Stroman.

scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#390120) #
Another problem is that some stadiums will be really cold in a month.
A neutral hub in California sounds good to me.

scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#390122) #
The Yankees have 15 position players and only 13 pitchers.
I wondered how they manage that.

Garcia was recalled on the 4th for a start against the Orioles.
He was optioned back on the 5th and they recalled Schmidt instead.
They also optioned Ben Heller and Albert Abreu.

If Garcia is really the Wednesday starter, I think they'll have to put someone on the IL to recall him on short notice.
Due to Covid19 exception, the minimum number of days a player generally must remain on Optional Assignment to the minors is ten days for both position players and pitchers in 2020.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#390123) #
Hey scottt, don't bad mouth Stro, my favourite ex-Jay. :)

Maybe fitting to say this now, with Happ on the mound tonight, but while they were Jays, I was a fan of Josh, Happ and Stro in that order, using both performance and likeability. Now it's Stro, huge gap, Josh, big gap, Happ. And it's all about their trade return. Stro was the only one of the three healthy and effective right to the trade deadline. Love you, Marcus.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#390124) #
Yeah, that Stroman trade is really looking good now with him skipping 2020. Mets got 11 games of a 109 ERA+ (1.4 WAR) in a year they finished 3rd, 3 games out of the playoffs. Meanwhile the Jays got Simeon Woods Richardson (super prospect) and Anthony Kay (0.8 WAR so far as a Jay). Kay alone might make it a break even for the Jays, but SWR should make this into a blowout trade. Wonder what Stroman will get as a free agent and where he will go. Doubt the Jays will resign him, although that would really make it funny. I expect Atlanta to get him as AA keeps taking back ex-Jays he liked when he gets a chance.
pubster - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#390125) #
"Yeah, that Stroman trade is really looking good now with him skipping 2020."

I remember everyone was complaining that we didn't get a single top 100 prospect for Stroman!
John Northey - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#390126) #
So who is available in the pen tonight?
Pitcher (pitches)
  • Last night: SRF (33), Merryweather (42), Bass (15)
  • 2 days ago: Font (31 demoted), Hatch (32), Cole (28), Borucki (5), Dolis (14)
  • 3 days ago: Yamaguchi (45), Kay (24), Bass (18)
So I'd say SRF & Merryweather are toast as is Hatch & Cole. Bass is a 'only if no other option', and Dolis ideally gets another day off but is probably todays closer. Yamaguchi is a maybe. Kay, Borucki both should be good by now. Guys who are getting bored: No one.

I expect the Jays to do a demotion/promotion with SRF down and someone else up. Waguespack maybe if allowed. Elvis Luciano, Pat Murphy, Hector Perez, Yennsy Diaz, and T.J. Zeuch are all on the 40 man so can easily be called up if they are healthy and doing well in summer camp. Doubt Giles, Pearson, or Romano are ready yet.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#390127) #
Giles isn't eligible to come off until Sep 10.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#390128) #
Jonathan Davis gets the start today in right-field.  Panik is at third and Biggio is back at second.  Espinal gets another well-earned start at short against Happ. 
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#390129) #
Works for me.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#390130) #
You can add Stripling, 3 days of rest. They're not going to move to a 6 man rotation now that they have 2 days off.

Font is on the 10IL. Luciano is on the 45IL.

They can't bring back Waguespack until the 10th or the 11th unless it's to replace someone going to the IL.

scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#390131) #
They say Hosmer might be back for the last week.

They traded for Moreland, so it can't be all bad.
He's got an OPS of -27 in his first 6 games with SD.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#390132) #
Thanks scottt - I lose track sometimes. So much going on plus trying to figure out school stuff for my kids (grade 1 and 10 - thank god the 6 month summer vacation is almost over).

Ray: 2 days rest: 83 pitches so needs more time.
Stripling: 4 days rest: 81 pitches, should be fine for multiple innings. Wont start until the 18th and the double header I suspect.

Too many starters is a good problem to have.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#390133) #
Hrm... added an extra day of rest for Ray and Stripling by counting today as a day of rest - doh.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#390134) #
13-pitch walk for Biggio, against a veteran LHP no less. Very impressive.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#390135) #
Ah, Rafael Dolis, human rain delay. Very crafty technique, lulling opposing batters (and home viewers) to sleep. Not arguing with the results, mind you.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#390136) #
Wow. Have we transitioned past the cusp of good?
bpoz - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#390137) #
Good question for discussion hypobole.

It happened very fast for me to believe. I knew that we had a good core of position players and a a huge amount of pitchers.

I am also feeling that Dante Bichette may be the reason. That 2 strike approach.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#390138) #
Add a healthy Giles, Bichette, Teoscar, and Pearson, and I would say probably yes.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#390139) #
Make one more starting pitching signing in the offseason. Doesn't need to be an Ace but a number 2/3 would be good.

Then have Martin, Groshans, SWR, Manoah, etc come up in the next year to two years and we'll compete for playoff spots I think.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#390140) #
Strange game. Walker's stuff doesn't look that good, but he throws so many balls they can't square him up at all when he throws a strike.

I expected Grichuk to do better against Happ. Guerrero too.
Gurriel is the player of the week. Nice.

Yamaguchi is pretty good at getting weak contact.

I hope we didn't lose Tellez there.
Bichette should be back after the break, but still.
I don't expect him to be hot right away.

Nice hit from Davis.

I guess the Yankees have Flavial as a defensive replacement. He's got only 3 ABs.

It looks like the Yankees' plan is to go fastball heavy.
Curious to see how that works out tomorrow.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#390141) #
Rowdy getting an MRI on his right knee tomorrow.

This season is a war of attrition.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#390142) #
Tellez to undergo MRI on right knee.
scottt - Tuesday, September 08 2020 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#390143) #
That doesn't sound good.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#390144) #
John posted a link to a story about the 235 pitch game Nolan Ryan threw. Nowadays 100 pitches is becoming rare. That's why I found this interesting:

Fun random factoid of the day, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info: Lance Lynn has now thrown 100+ pitches in 34 straight starts. Second-longest active streak is Gerrit Cole with 4. It's also the fourth-longest streak since 1990: Justin Verlander, 80 (2010-12); Randy Johnson, 38 (1998-99); Randy Johnson, 37 (1992-93).
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 06:05 AM EDT (#390145) #
Today should really be a tandem start with Roark and Stripling. They both pitched 5 days ago, in the double-header against the Red Sox, and the bullpen is tired.

Ryu's next start in a normal 5-man rotation would be Sunday versus the Mets, and he would then miss the series at Yankee stadium. But the 2 off days mean they can line things up better by putting Ryu on an every-5-days schedule.

Saturday 12th vs NYM
Thursday 17th @ NYY
Tuesday 22nd vs NYY
(Sunday 27th vs Baltimore - likely he skips this one in favour of an extended rest before starting the first game of the playoffs.)
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#390146) #
Boy, Gary Sanchez is really struggling for the Yankees, batting .130 with another 0-fer last night and a dropped pop-up.

Jansen also dropped a pop-up so it makes you wonder if the lighting at Buffalo, while upgraded to major league standards, is still below what is found at regular big league parks. I know pitchers seeing the catcher's signs has been an issue.

scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#390147) #
Not sure. It seemed to be windy. Gurriel dropped a ball that was moving towards right field.
Grichuk had an epic catch on a ball that looked routine at first.
Jano was tracking a pop-up while holding his mask and it seems to move away from him at the last second.

The Sanchez pop-up was a bit different. It was a mile high. He was camped under it for a long time and it hit his hand, rather than the pocket and bounced out before he could squeeze it.

They carry 3 catchers, so they can use Sanchez at DH. They could have picked up a better DH bat, but for them, it's more about getting Sanchez going in time for the playoffs.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#390148) #
Rafael Dolis is an absolutely elite pitcher in the eyes on Statcast, but a little more pedestrian according to xFIP. He might be a good example on which statistic has more predictive value.

It seems to me that pitcher like Dolis who use more offspeed pitches to get weak contact show better in statcast, versus pitchers who throw more breaking pitches to get high K numbers are viewed more favorably by FIP and xFIP.
christaylor - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#390149) #
Why get depressed. Knowing what's coming takes the psychological aspect out of the game, which may or may not be appealing to you.

As fun as the Bull Durham "I told him." scene is, it is fiction... the hitter isn't always going to get the ball out of the park so fast that there should be a stewardess on it or win a free steak if the catcher tells the hitter what's coming.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#390150) #
On the subject of getting depressed. Unless the Jays collapse, there is a good chance Charlie Montoyo's 2022 option is picked up. :)

Who's hot/not - last 14 days wRC+:
Panik 196
Rowdy 195
Lourdes 187
Teoscar 173
Shaw 135
Vlad 112
Fisher 100
Espinal 82
Jansen 70
Grichuk 66
Biggio 62
Villar 46
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#390151) #
trying to balance out this year's hot hitting with last year's stats.....

2yr wRC+

SS Bichette 151 (.370babip)
2B Biggio 117
LF Gurriel 125
RF Teoscar 117
DH Guerrero 105
1B Tellez 101
3B Villar 101
CF Grichuk 95
C Jansen 69 (.215babip)

UT Shaw 63 - McKinney 82
OF Fisher 83 - Davis 54
IF Panik 80 - Espinal 56
C Joseph 53 - McGuire 73


Still looks good.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#390152) #
If we make the playoffs this year and it looks good then we could give every team we face a threat to eliminate them. Our offense is explosive.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#390153) #
I see the Yankees line-up and I see DJ Lemahieu as a prime free agent target this summer, partially to make us better and them worse. His versatility is something I think this regime covets and he can cover 3B until Martin/Groshans can break with the club. The Yankees might need to spend their free agent dollars on pitching.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#390155) #
It's a good bet that LeMahieu will make more than the 12M/year he got on a 2 year contract.
He's going to be 32 and his career OPS is only 780. He only had a single year with an OPS+ over 100 in 7 years in Colorado. Right now, he's the AL hitting champion (.355).

bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#390156) #
For 2021 better quality FAs are likely for us. I still believe that FAs league wide will get a lot less $ due to the threat of a partial season.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#390157) #
It's funny the DJ talk came up just now; I was looking at Fransisco Lindor's numbers today. Lindor's defense at short might trump Lamahieu's bat.

The Cleveland connection with Lindor is obvious. Atkins had a big hand in his draft and development. It does seem like a bit of a fait accompli he will be in the Jays crosshairs this November, given the Jays emphasis on run prevention. Moving Bichette to second, and perhaps packaging Tellez and prospect capital for pitching would open up first for Vlady. But then who plays third? I'm sure the Jays would gladly accept this problem with Lindor locked up for his 27-33 seasons.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#390158) #
1 year of Lindor starts with Martin, Gorshans or SWR and I'm not sure this front office is going to trade blue chips guys for rentals. As with the Ryu signing the will likely target second tier free agent signings.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#390159) #
I don't think they'll trade for someone near free agency.
They have a bigger wallet than they had in Cleveland, but they won't waste it on circular moves.

Also, Cleveland would want a shortstop and an outfielder or a top starter.
Not a 1B or a DH.
Groshans, Martin, Martinez and Hiraldo are all shortstops.
Why would they spend money on a shortstop?

Without trading anyone, they have a 7+ year window in front of them.
Depth is the reason they are in front of the Yankees.
They can't cut the depth and hope they'll have no injuries.

Kirk should arrive next year.
So they will probably trade one catcher, McGuire is on his last option, it's too bad they'll have to sell low.
McKinney will be out of options too.

They'll keep grabbing vets for short stints.

scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#390160) #
The Yankees have recalled Deivi Garcia for today's start.

I don't understand how they can recall him before 10 days have elapsed since he was optioned on the 5th.
Anyone?

bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#390161) #
Lindor is a FA after 2021 I think.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#390162) #
I think we sell prospects to extend the closing window for 2 or 3 years so that we cash in on the big revenues. Or we trade good players for top prospects like TB does. TB has a good model.

We will have to pay our young players expensive Arb years I am sure. This is a good team. Looks like.

For the next 3 years we can use the payroll space to spend on FAs if they will sign. The good ones that is. Ryu is from S Korea so not an American. This makes us better sooner. So we cash in earlier on the big revenues.

No FA pitcher in the recent past wanted to face NYY & Boston 18 times. See Porcello.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#390163) #
My apologies, yes Lindor is an FA after '21. To me, this doesn't make it any more unlikely he's a prime target for this front office, given the prior relationship. The price tag in prospects, or a mixture of prospects and say a Tellez, or Gurriel, would probably be less than it was last off-season when it was rumoured the Jays were interested. In that case, we're talking about a trade and an extension, which is only money. Everything we've heard (and with the Ryu signing evidence of what we've seen) the Jays appear ready to spend big to supplement the homegrown core.


I agree Martin is virtually untouchable, given the immense talent and versatility.



Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#390164) #
I guess, should the Lindor speculation somehow be correct, the next question would be who plays first, who plays third? With Lindor at short and Bichette moving to second that's excellent defense up the middle. However, that is basically off-set with Vladdy at third and Rowdy at first. The front office would have to risk exposing Biggio to yet another position change (he'd have to play first) and hope somehow Guerrero can improve enough where he is not a liability.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#390165) #
As long as the Jays have good prospects, there will be rumours because other GMs will call inquiring about those top prospects.

The Jays haven't had that much prospect capital since the eighties.

bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#390166) #
Alfredo Griffin, Glen Allen Hill and Mark Whiten was prospect capital in the 80s. Of course they had more than enough ABs to not be prospects anymore.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#390167) #
The only way a Lindor trade happens is if it comes with a signing to lengthen the contract a few years. Someone like Lindor would be hugely expensive and they wouldn't take the change of him walking just to have a stronger team for 1 year. Especially if you're throwin players like Gurriel in that would weaken the team.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#390168) #
For next year and the following years it will be Vlad & Tellez sharing 1B/DH unless the Jays get a killer trade opportunity. Neither can really play elsewhere. The Jays dreamed Vlad could play 3B but the stats scream he couldn't as did observation by most. I was hopeful but accept that it ain't gonna happen. Much like the Delgado catching or in LF dream the Jays had in the early 90's.

What is it with the Jays and multiple kids at once who are 1B/DH only? 1987-1988 Fielder/McGriff, 1994/1995 Delgado/Olerud (and DHing was Molitor), and now Vlad/Tellez. Fielder and Olerud were dumped for nothing (heck, the Jays paid Olerud's salary to get rid of him), lets not see that history repeat. Now, Fielder did come up in 1985 (platooned with Upshaw for a few months then Jimy Williams...grr....), and Olerud in 1990 (with tiny playing time for Delgado in 93, McGriff in '86) but the point is we had 2 super-talented 1B/DH who really couldn't play elsewhere even though the team tried so hard (Fielder at 3B/2B was entertaining, McGriff was in LF for spring once iirc, Olerud they thought about but never tried in LF, Delgado at CA/LF, and of course Vlad at 3B).

So bottom line is unless a trade happens we have a killer DH/1B combo (young and talented with loads of potential) while Hernandez plays in RF. Could be worse. Plus of course in this era of high strikeouts defense is becoming less vital.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#390169) #
For those pushing for the Jays to sign free agent pitchers this winter a caution: Madison Bumgarner - 0-4 8.44 ERA in 5 starts for Arizona in year 1 of a 5 year deal. They owe him $74 million after this year and have to be wondering why they did that now. Pitchers are always a high risk as they can go from ace to useless with a single pitch.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#390170) #
That 80/90s team needed a trade of stars to get Alomar/Carter and prospects/youngsters to get Cone. Then the FAs.

A Sharperson for Guzman trade would be nice. The E Sogard trade could be it or the Phelps trade. Nice to have candidates. Sharperson was a surplus piece on a contending team (unless that was a bad year for the Jays).
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#390171) #
The Jays pursuit of Ryu has been the complete opposite of Bumgarner, good inestment.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#390172) #
Agreed John N. Ace/superstar to bad contract. G Stanton, G Cole and M Betts among others (Trout even) can possibly destroy the Jays. Ownership would react badly IMO.
Cracka - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#390173) #
I don't understand how they can recall him before 10 days have elapsed since he was optioned on the 5th. Anyone?

Great catch. The only exceptions to the 10-day waiting period are recalls to replace a players who are traded, claimed off waivers, or played on a "List" (Injured / Bereavement/ Family/ Paternity/ Restricted). I'm guessing that there is another transaction forthcoming that falls under one of these exceptions. Strangely though, the transaction has already been announced: "Following last nightís game, the Yankees optioned OF Estevan Florial to the Alternate Site. Prior to tonightís game, the Yankees recalled RHP Deivi GarcŪa from the Alternate Site."

The same thing happened prior to his previous start: Optioned 8/31, Recalled 9/4 (Loaisiga placed on IL). If something similar doesn't happen today, then I don't think he's eligible. Presumably, the Yankees are aware of this (just like last time) and have a plan. But their announcement & the official transactions list make this look like a done deal already.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#390174) #
Not just pitchers who can go bad. The 3 highest salaries in baseball this season are Prince Fielder ($24 Million), Troy Tulowitzki ($14 million) and David Wright ($12 million). And there is Jacoby Ellsbury's $26 million which may or may not be paid depending on how the union's grievance turns out.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#390175) #
Last time they put Urshela on the 10IL also.

So far, they only optioned Florial. Maybe there is an other exception because Florial has not played, but I haven't heard of anything like that. Florial himself was replacing Miguel Yagure who is not injured either.

hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#390176) #
Whoops. Trout and Betts are making $13.3. Arenado ($13)and Verlander ($12.2) also making more than Wright. But that's it.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#390177) #
Thanks hypobole. I thought they were making more. Like close to triple. Oops!!
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#390178) #
Lindor certainly has value. However, there's always a tradeoff. Which would you rather have in isolation: Lindor at SS or Bichette at SS + a bunch of prospects, PLUS $16.5M (estimate) to spend on another player?

We saw what $20M can get you in Ryu (I disagree that he was "2nd tier" - he just had injury concerns - he's like #2 in ERA over the last several years) - if salaries will be deflated this year, $16M may get you another player at a position of GREATER need than SS.

Now, Bichette isn't as established as Lindor, and there's always a chance (slight, I would say at this point) he'll just become average. Bichette had 2.3 bWAR in 46 games last year. That's ~7 WAR for 138 games. Lindor's best season to date is 7.8 bWAR. Part of his value is playing a GOOD (not great?) defensive shortstop AND hitting like a slugger. Move him to 1B, say, and his hitting isn't AS amazing.

If it was JUST $$ - i.e. sign Lindor on the open market for $20M, that's one thing. But to also give up huge prospects, AND then have to move Bo, maybe messing him up? I think that's too much movement that could be had other ways.

If we're looking at "dreaming", I have a few suggestions for the offseason:

-go HARD after Realmuto. Our catchers can't really throw consistently. They can't hit consistently. They can't seem to call a game consistently. If we're going to have long-term success, we need more than stop-gaps behind the plate. Plus, we have more catchers coming up. Bring up Kirk in a year or two to be his understudy.

-offer the Angels Pearson + any other pitchers/prospect + 1 more for Rendon (or take the last year of Pujols?). 3B solved for years. Imagine Rendon, Bichette, Biggio, Vladdy in the infield. That's a crazy infield for defense (mostly) AND power. Yes, this is similar to what I said I wouldn't do for Lindor - but we already have a SS who is close to / as good as Lindor. We have squat at 3B, Panik's hot streak notwithstanding.


-sign a good defensive CF for later innings
Chuck - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#390179) #
I thought they were making more. Like close to triple.

They are when their contracts are not pro-rated to a 60-game season.

Chuck - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#390180) #
sign a good defensive CF for later innings

Or all 9 innings. I'm not convinced that three corner outfielders is the way to go.

Paul D - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#390181) #
I thought Wei--Yin Chen was getting $22 million this year. Or is his salary also pro-rated?
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#390182) #
I got mine from Forbes, but they missed Chen. He's getting the full $22 million.
Paul D - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#390183) #
Does Rusney Castillo get his full salary this year, or is his $14.3 pro-rated?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#390184) #
"Everything we've heard (and with the Ryu signing evidence of what we've seen) the Jays appear ready to spend big to supplement the homegrown core. "

Of course, there were heavy rumours that Lindor to Jays was actually discussed by both teams last off season.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#390185) #
Arden Zwelling @ArdenZwelling
2m
Rowdy Tellez has been diagnosed with a right knee strain after an MRI this morning, per Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo. He's likely headed to IL.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#390186) #
Usually when September rolls around and the club is in contention, talk does not turn to the fodder of the off-season (how to make the club better...).  I guess looking forward to next year is a hopeful thing in a pandemic. 

Today's lineup- Biggio 4, Grichuk 8, Shaw 3, Guerrero Jr. 0, Panik 5, Villar 6, Joseph 2, Fisher 7, Davis 9.    With tomorrow's day off and the next on Monday, I would have Jansen in the lineup every day until later next week. More importantly, I am puzzled by Gurriel Jr.'s absence (unless he is injured too).  He's arguably the hottest hitter on the club.  If you want to put Fisher in right-field to get the platoon advantage, that's fine.  If you want to put Davis in right-field because of his defence and yesterday's homer, that too is fine.  But both of them?   No.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#390187) #
Offense is more valuable to an offensive team than defense.
Every AB that doesn't result in a out leads to another AB.

Run allowed:

Rays 180
Jays 185
Yankees 192
Orioles 203
Red Sox 274

Elites are Indians with 126, but they only scored 178.
A's with 151, scoring 189.

scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#390188) #
It's a defensive move. If Gurriel doesn't play he can't end up on the IL.
85bluejay - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#390189) #
I saw on Jays in 30 that Gurriel had 2 misadventures last night and would not be surprised if he got nicked up.
Kasi - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#390190) #
Most likely nursing some sort of injury. Until the team releases all the minor injuries (which will never happen) its kinda pointless to argue over why is someone out of the lineup.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#390191) #
Some people are eager to sell high.
PeterG - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#390192) #
Jays won't trade for Lindor. They will likely try to sign him as FA after next season.

Kirk will not be arriving next season. He has yet to play above A ball.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#390193) #
Gregor Chisholm twitter

Tellez's MRI showed a knee strain. He's likely going to the IL
Kasi - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#390194) #
Speaking of Gregor I forgot where he used to do his reporting (I know it was Mop Up Duty at one point but I forgot where he was after) but it seems like he's trying to edge his way into the Steve Simmons/Cathal Kelly crowd. Is this just a byproduct of being a sports personality in the Toronto market that you have to be a jerk? (John Lott and Richard Griffin excepted)
PeterG - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#390195) #
Tellez has indeed gone to IL. McKinney recalled.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#390197) #
It's always something.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#390199) #
Is this the first time Vlad has faced someone younger than him in the majors?
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#390200) #
Of course Derek Fisher plays early hero. Next up, Jonathan Davis will make a couple of spectacular defensive plays. If I complain about Tanner Roark's pitching, will he shut them down the rest of the way?

It's true- you know nothing.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#390201) #
The only exceptions to the 10-day waiting period are recalls to replace a players who are traded, claimed off waivers, or played on a "List" (Injured / Bereavement/ Family/ Paternity/ Restricted)

Probably an hour late like with the Rowdy news, but one other exception seems to be 29th man for doubleheaders.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#390202) #
Stripling in for Roark in the 5th of a 2-2 game. Close enough to a tandem for me, Jonny! Nailed it.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#390203) #
That was an impressive prediction.

Stripling looks like he needs an offseason to overhaul his delivery.
electric carrot - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#390204) #
I guess it's too much to ask for another 10 run inning, eh?
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#390205) #
Yes. That was it. Garcia 's 2 first starts were as the 29th man in doubleheaders.

His stuff didn't look amazing, but he threw strikes consistently.
Ryu, Anderson and Shoemaker are the only Blue Jays starters who don't walk a ton.
That's a big part of why the games are so long.

hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#390206) #
A while back I was the only one who saw 2015 Jose Reyes in Jonathan Villar, some people thinking the only similarity was they were Dominican shortstops.

Reyes committed 8 errors in July, including 7 in a 12 game stretch, prior to being dumped to Colorado on the 31st.
Villar had 3 in his last 9 Marlins games and now has 4 in his 1st 8 games as a Jay.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#390207) #
Nice thing about Villar is he was mainly a cash cost, no idea on PTBNL but hopefully it is a minor guy. Villar's main use now is to fill in space until guys come back healthy. Wouldn't be shocked at this point if he gets released, which is a shame as I hoped he'd be a useful part thanks to his speed and power and versatility. Ah well. At least, unlike Reyes, he didn't cost big prospects and a long term $20+ mil a year deal.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#390208) #
Griffin Conine is the PTBNL, so yeah, he was pretty cheap. But Atkins talked run prevention before the deadline and traded for Villar. Didn't like it then, like it less now.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#390209) #
From Rob Longley:

Tanner Roark a clear candidate for zoom of the year. Essentially ripping the way the #Bluejays handle their starting pitching in general and him specifically.

"We can't have the relievers being exhausted. We have to be able to give everything we've got until we're out of the game." - #Bluejays starter Tanner Roark.

"I think that's horsecrap." A clearly frustrated #Bluejays starter Tanner Roark at getting the early hook. Not a fan of the "computers" that are deciding outing lengths.

After today Roark 5.60 ERA 6.78 FIP
Cracka - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#390210) #
I didn't like Roark's post-game comments at all; this wasn't a tough loss, there's no need to vent like this now. And it's not like the "third-time through the order" is a difficult concept to understand or measure. Here are his OPS by PA (1st / 2nd / 3rd) by year:

2020: 1.127 / .861 / 1.009
2019: .781 / .788 / .888
2018: .750 / .694 / .749
2017: .699 / .704 / .749

I'm not even sure he makes the playoff roster at this point.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 09 2020 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#390211) #
It wasn't a tough loss because the guy who came in after Roark got the quick hook instantly gave up three runs. Oh well.

Did you see what Atlanta did tonight? It's only been 65 years since a team scored that many runs in a game.
hypobole - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#390212) #
Starting pitchers in too many cases are similar to Roark. Selfish. I think that's why tandem starters may work in principal, but have almost never been used.
Magpie - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#390213) #
All pitchers are liars or crybabies.

--- Yogi
hypobole - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#390214) #
Before I get my knuckles rapped, but not wrapped.

Tandem starters don't work in principal, they work in principle.
Glevin - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#390215) #
"Did you see what Atlanta did tonight? It's only been 65 years since a team scored that many runs in a game."

National League Team. Rangers scored 30 against Baltimore in 2007. I remember because I had Nelson Cruz on my fantasy team so before looking at the box score envisioning HRs, RBIs, and runs galore and he went 2-7 with 2 runs. The rest of the team went 27/50 with 6 HRs, 30 RBI, and 28 R.
John Northey - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#390216) #
Wow, crazy game for Atlanta. 29 runs, but somehow one Marlins pitcher didn't allow a run (the final guy who went 1 inning). Only 4 relievers used - so I suspect they were short staffed and the manager might hate Yamamoto or something leaving him in for 2 2/3 IP allowing 13 runs on 11 hits and 2 walks and 4 home runs - 94 pitches. Ugh. Talk about torturing a pitcher. He wasn't doing well before (11.42 ERA) but now looks even worse (18.26).

What makes it more fun is Atlanta was shut out the night before by Miami. Gotta be easily the biggest difference over 2 days for a team scoring. From 0 to 29. Now watch them be shut out next game too. Would be appropriate.
John Northey - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#390217) #
Good point Glevin. Here is the boxscore 30-3. Wow. To pick up on my last comment, the Rangers scored 2 the day before and 9 the next day so it went 2, 30, 9. No pitcher allowed 10 that game, although the last guy did give up 9 in 2 innings. Poor Paul Shuey - had been out of the majors for 3 years then came back and got into 25 games for the O's including that one. He only got into one more ML game after that - 4 days later giving up 2 runs over 1 inning in an 11-3 loss. When released that was it for him as a pro.
Magpie - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#390218) #
Clearly, I was relying on an out of date source!

I'd say that was a fairly cheap save for Bryse Wilson, but he did have to pitch four innings to get it. And I believe the last Brave to drive in 9 runs in a game was Tony Cloninger, when he hit two grand slams and pitched a complete game to beat the Giants 17-3.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 06:03 AM EDT (#390219) #
If Roark didn't have a second year on his deal he would be a prime DFA candidate right now.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#390220) #
No one ever called him Tanner Terrific. Put him in low leverage relief please. If he performs better, then you think about whether you need to give him another shot in the rotation. There's no evidence that he's a better pitcher than Anthony Kay right now.


scottt - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#390221) #
Even if Roark goes back in the 5th and  put up zeroes, Stripling still probably struggles in his first inning and the Jays still only score 2 runs.

Davis had a hit. Fisher had a homerun.
Something more was needed from the top of the lineup.

It's not a terrible outcome for Roark, he doesn't pick up a loss, his ERA goes down.
He only gave up 2 solos homeruns, to 2 guys who had faced him before.
He just walked too many to get to the 5th.

Roark was supposed to provide innings, but there are 2 off days so no need to rest the pen here.
Also, maybe they use the days off to reset the rotation and his next start is pushed back.

It's a trade off, but it would line up Ryu to start the post-season.
If Roark's last start comes against Baltimore in a game that doesn't mean anything, they might let him go as long as he wants.

I don't think we'll see Tellez back this year. 

Villar hasn't hit much, but neither has Pillar or Moreland.
Vogelbach is .385 .457 .462.

bpoz - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#390222) #
As expected the NL has quite a playoff race.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#390223) #
The Jays clearly have a very analytical view of pitcher usage this season. Other than Ryu, they apparently are not going to trust any other starter to go deep into a game or face a lineup a 3rd time. That might explain some of their success this season (combined with how effective the pen has been as a whole), but it's going to make the Roark's of the world completely useless. The only thing Roark does well is provide innings. If he's not giving the team 5-6 mediocre innings, then he's not a very valuable pitcher. Not that I disagree with pulling him early, he's looked bad all season, but they signed him primarily for his ability to eat up innings. Might as well try to stretch Merryweather out a little bit more and have him face a lineup twice every 5 days instead. That would have more upside, assuming Merryweather could handle the workload. Maybe use Roark out of the pen as a bulk reliever.
Kasi - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#390224) #
Shoemaker last year and Tellez this year. Not sure why people get injured doing something like running. Oh well it is a sad end to a good season. We really need Bichette back soon and I hope Teoscar returns by the time playoffs start.
Glevin - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#390225) #
Feel bad for Tellez who really looked like he was blossoming into a legit middle of the order bat. Personally, I'd go with Fisher every day against righties and Davis against lefties. These are probably the team's best bets anyway but you also want to see what you have before maybe cutting bait next year.
bpoz - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#390226) #
This season is definitely different. With Bo, Teoscar, Rowdy out of the lineup we are much weaker offensively. Bo has not had a chance to slump due to injuries. Hot streaks and slumps are normal. Injuries and streak/slump happen to everyone.

Pitching has been analysed correctly. No going 3 times through the order and a lot of 1 inning relief outings. This strategy favors a mediocre staff like ours.

The FO adds depth at every opportunity. This depth probably has a high floor.

Hot and cold is Grichuk as a great example. Super hot with those timely Hrs.

I am guessing that if 1 run games is our pattern then we can sweep/get swept in the playoffs. So fun times to look forward to.
scottt - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#390227) #
It depends on pitch count. If Roark needs 50 pitches to get through the first 2 innings, he's probably not going to pitch the 5th.

They have 6 starters now. I don't know if Shoemaker can come back but he'd be my #3.
Otherwise, it's Ray.
Maybe Roark would do better with an opener, but I don' t think they'll try that.


scottt - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#390228) #
Next stop New York Mets.

Degrom and then Seth Lugo.

Lugo was their closer until they threw him in the rotation on Aug 25. Seems weird, but it looks like they've used him that way every year except last when he  didn't get any starts.

The also have an off day. Maybe they save an arm for the Phillies who follow the Jays?

greenfrog - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#390229) #
I wonder if the soft spot Tellez stepped on was due to a groundkeeping problem at Sahlen Field. This would be reminiscent of the injury Michael Saunders sustained a few years ago in spring training, when he stepped on a sprinkler head on the field and badly injured his knee.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#390230) #
Apparently, the soft spot was near the bullpens in foul territory and there was difficulty in fixing the spot because of the bullpens.  It's apparently a tendon injury and Rowdy is likely out for the season.  I am very optimistic about Rowdy's future now. 
John Northey - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#390231) #
Argh. Frustrating to have that happen. Dumb luck - anyone could've stepped there but it had to be our hottest player. Of course he was 1 for 8 at the end so maybe he was starting to cool off.

Through 169 career games Tellez is now hitting 250/309/448 for a 111 OPS+. Not bad. We all have to remember his career is basically the equivalent of one season. This year has been really good - 283/346/540 136 OPS+, but not a super wow. Just 0.8 WAR lifetime, 0.4 this year. That does make him easily the best 30th round pick in Jays history, but Pillar beats him by a mile as the best picked in the 30's (32nd round - 15.9 WAR). Heck, Danny Barnes is still ahead of him in WAR (1.1, 35th round). So lets not get too worked up about it.

It does seem to be a curse to be the best hitter on this team. First Bichette, then Hernandez, now Tellez. Who is next? Guess it is Gurriel's turn. Well past time for Vlad to start hitting like he can.

OPS+ leaders (over 10 PA's and still under Jays control)
Bichette 182, Hernandez 163, Fisher 142 (surprised me), Tellez 136, Gurriel 126, Biggio 116, Grichuk 116 (just hitting 189/231/243 in September so far), Vlad 102, Shaw 95, Panik 87, Jansen 65, Espinal 58, Villar 41, Drury -2, McGuire -42.

Note: Joseph is at 9 PA and has as many runs scored, more RBI the same extra base hits, and more walks than McGuire had over 45 PA. Pretty sad.
bpoz - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#390232) #
Regarding depth. A great asset for the Jays. We are going to get some pitchers back. Giles and Pearson it seems.

Villar is someone that adds offense. We may be getting desperate there. Kirk probably gets an opportunity. He is smart and can hit. Kevin Smith is available if needed. His IF defense needs to be good and he has to not make mental errors on the base paths.

If Biggio goes into the OF Smith covers IF. He is just a kid so Bo is badly needed.

I sort of expect Fisher to play a lot more than J Davis before Teoscar comes back. Because he has a potential high ceiling.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#390233) #
First Lou Brock dies, then Diana Rigg. It's rough.
scottt - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#390234) #
Dropping Drury and optioning McGuire were good moves.
A lot of the hitters go hot and cold.
Panik got hot lately. Villar hasn't yet.


Great start by Davis. He said they got him to take something off his swing to improve contact.

I don't know about soft spot. It looks like Tellez stepped on a bag in the bullpen, maybe the homeplate.
Maybe that was a bit higher and his next step came up short and overextended?

That's the thing with having bullpens in play, but Tellez has spent many years in Buffalo.

Reminded me of when kickboxer Alexio broke his leg when stepping on a soft spot.
Fight lasted 15 seconds.
Lucky for him there was footage of him telling officials there was a hole that needed fixing before the fight.

scottt - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#390235) #
Bichette will just push McKinney back out. 2 hits in 3 ABs this year.
I'm just hoping Teoscar comes back before the end.

I think it's mostly a platoon with Davis/Fisher and who is hot or hurting.

hypobole - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#390236) #
Braves are proving to the Tanner Roarks of the baseball world that starting pitching is totally overrated. :)
Dewey - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#390237) #
"Before I get my knuckles rapped, but not wrapped.

Tandem starters don't work in principal, they work in principle."

Way to go, hypo. Proud of ya.
bpoz - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#390238) #
"The pen is in shambles because the starters cannot go deep" this concept is irrelevant this shortened season?

SK in NJ - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#390239) #
Sucks about Tellez. His numbers were not a mirage, he was legitimately having a really good offensive season. I agree that until Hernandez gets back, a platoon of Fisher/Davis is the right call. My guess is that Montoyo might prefer Biggio in the outfield and Villar/Panik playing over Fisher/Davis once Bichette comes back, but there are enough options available to get creative based on match-ups.
John Northey - Thursday, September 10 2020 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#390241) #
Having a 10 man bullpen makes it less of an issue. Montoyo has actually done a good job balancing the workload out. All figures are relief only.
  • 20 games: Bass, Dolis
  • 15-19 games: Cole, Romano, Font, Borucki
  • 10-14 games: Hatch, Yamaguchi, Kay
  • 5-9 games: Waguespack, SRF
  • under 5 games: Merryweather (2 starts, 4 relief), Gaviglio, Giles, Moran, Bergen, Stripling & Ray (1 start, 1 relief each)
Not bad. No one with more than 1 relief game has averaged 2 innings per game (Ray & Stripling 3 1/3 each in their one time), Yamaguchi is the hardest worked in his games (11 games, 20 1/3 IP) but he was a starter so not a shock. Kay also (11 games 18 1/3). The worst pen ERA is Giles (10.80 in 1 2/3 IP, 2 runs) then Gaviglio (released), Font (given 17 games, allowed runs in 7 of them, longest was 1 2/3 IP so it isn't like he was pushed hard), Stripling (8.10 but just 1 game), Waguespack (4.85 has been alternating on and off the roster as needed). Best are Morgan & Bergen (2 2/3 between them, 0 runs), Romano (1.23 ERA), SRF (1.35 somehow), Hatch (1.50), Dolis (1.77) covers the sub 2 ERA crowd.
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