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OK, the big one I kept putting off - who are the starting pitchers in 2021 and who could come here?

Used as a starter at least once in 2020...
  • Hyun Jin Ryu - Ace.  Signed for 3 more years.
  • Tanner Roark - Signed for $12mil for 2021 then a free agent, 65 ERA+ last year but 110 lifetime (last time that good was 2016).  He should be a 6 IP guy with an ERA+ around 100.  Ideal #3/4 guy.
  • Chase Anderson, Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker: all free agents.  Walker has a 108 ERA+ lifetime 161 in 53 IP last year, injured most of 2018/9, worth bringing back I'd think.  Shoemaker is Mr. Injury 103 ERA+ lifetime  but has never qualified for the ERA title.
  • Robbie Ray - resigned for $8 mil then free agent after 2021.  Again a good ERA+ lifetime (103) but just a 69 last year.  his 4.3 BB/9 is the problem, 11.1 K/9 the promise.  If he is on he is a Cy candidate, if off he is a release candidate, entering age 29 season.
  • Nate Pearson - the ace in waiting we all hope, but put together NCAA/MLB/Minors/Fall league and you get just 195 innings from 2016 to today.  He has the raw talent, but does he have any endurance or ability to avoid injuries?
  • Trent Thornton - entering his age 27 season, 160 ML innings with a 90 ERA+ would be a decent 4/5 guy probably, but hopefully will be #6
  • Julian Merryweather - entering his age 29 season already with just 13 ML innings.  His peak is 135 in 2016, 128 in 2017, missed most of 2018/2019, spent a chunk of 2020 in summer camp.  Like Pearson has the skill but does he have endurance?  I'd look at having him up as part of a tandem.
  • Ross Stripling - entering his age 31 season, 122 innings is his peak in the majors as he has been used as a swingman.  Has 2 years here before free agency so he'll be trying hard to establish himself in the rotation.  Was an all-star in 2018 so the talent is there.
  • Tom Hatch - Entering age 26 season, 16 in the pen,, 1 as starter after being a pure starter in the minors his first 3 years - 124 to 143 2/3 innings his 3 years before this freakshow year.  Safe to say he wants to be a starter again.
  • T.J. Zeuch - Entering his age 25 season, 4 years in minors as a starter with a peak of 156 innings.  Low K guy which is rare nowadays.  Should be interesting to see how the Jays handle him.

Used in the pen 2020 but was a starter...
  • Ryan Borucki - Age 27 - I suspect will stay in the pen now as he did well, wild (6.5 BB/9) but well (11.3 K/9 3.61 FIP 166 ERA+)
  • Shun Yamaguchi - Age 33 - no way he gets a shot in the rotation until he shows something (8.06 ERA last year)
  • Anthony Kay - Age 26 - this was just his 3rd pro season.  4.9 BB/9 9 K/9 0.8 HR/9 his control will decide if he gets a shot at the rotation or pen or is in AAA.
  • Jacob Waguespack - Age 27 - Again walks too many, not enough K's to compensate.  122 IP peak in the minors, I suspect will be the bouncing guy again in 2021.
  • Sean Reid-Foley - Age 25 - Surprised he is that young still, peak of 132 IP in minors, ERA+ of 101 in majors 6 BB/9 vs 9.5 K/9 - again a guy who needs a map of the strike zone.
  • Hector Perez  - Age 25 - Just 1 ML game, 121 inning max in minors, very wild, needs time, will probably join Waguespack & SRF on the Buffalo shuttle.
Minors... (hate not having stats for this for 2020) - of note: guys can climb from A+ to the majors in one season, it has happened a few times.  Pitchers are funny creatures.
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - listed as a top 100 prospect by everyone almost, seen as a potential ace, was at summer camp, only entering his age 20 season though and hasn't pitched higher than A+ with a 3.48 ERA in the minors over 124 innings over 2 years 2.0 BB/9 vs 11.0 K/9 is super-promising though.  I expect him to start in A+ or AA depending on what he did this past summer.  Has a shot at the majors by mid-season if he does well.
  • Alek Manoah - Just 17 pro innings, will be in A+ next year to start but could climb quick.  27 K's in 17 innings.  Wow.  Entering age 23 season.
  • Joey Murray - Age 24 season - had climbed to AA in his 2nd pro year so clearly is on the fast track and should be in AAA if space permits (see the big list of starters above).  137 innings in 2019 suggests he is close to a full season now, 2.60 ERA lifetime 3.3 BB/9 11.5 K/9.  Pretty promising for an 8th round pick.
  • Maximo Castillo - age 22 - was in A+ in 2019, 130 IP 2.69 ERA 1.9 BB/9 7.9 K/9 - should be in AA or AAA, I suspect AA in 2021.
  • Yennsy Diaz - age 24 - reached majors in 2019 briefly  (2/3 IP), peak of 147 IP, 3.8 BB/9 vs 8.0 K/9 at all levels.  I expect him to be in AA in 2021, maybe AAA
  • Adam Kloffenstein - age 20, played in an indy league to keep in practice but didn't do well (4.64 ERA 5.1 BB/9 8.4 K/9) Generally viewed as a top 10 prospect for the Jays, I'd expect AA or A+ next year.
  • CJ Van Eyk - Entering age 22 season, drafted in 2020.  11.5 K/9 in college so who knows?  I expect low minors to start, maybe A.
  • Eric Pardinho - Entering age 20 season, reached A in 2019, 2.57 ERA in minors over 87 2/3 IP with 3.3 BB/9 vs 10.2 K/9.  Had Tommy John surgery in 2020 in February so might not be back until part way into 2021.
  • Lots more.  No shortage of interesting arms in the Jays system right now.
Free Agents...
  • Trevor Bauer - the big fish - Entering age 30 season, led in shutouts, ERA+ (276!), lifetime 113 ERA+, 3.4 BB/9 9.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9 (concerning), Cy contender 2 of the past 3 years.  Outside of those 2 years he never had a 110 ERA+ though.  Hmm... A real horse, wants to pitch every 4 days, lowest pitch count in 2020 was 97.  Lowest innings was 5 1/3, all others 6+ IP.  Would easily move ahead of Ryu as #1 if signed.  Will cost $35+ a year for however long a deal he wants (he talked of demanding 1 year deals as he really believes in himself) but I could imagine a 3 year $100-$120 deal working.  Will be interesting as everyone with money will be chasing him.
  • Masahiro Tanaka - Entering age 32 season, 1.8 BB/9 8.5 K/9 career with a 114 ERA+.  Last year was in line with that, just once was he below 100 for ERA+ and that was a 95 in 2017.  Normally eats lots of innings but this year just 48 in 10 games.  90+ pitches his last 4 regular season starts.  Got his butt kicked in his 2 playoff starts this year (4 IP each time, 6 and 5 runs allowed).  Could be a cheaper guy to acquire (no draft pick attached).  Thought to be likely to get a 2 year $15 per year deal.  I'd jump at that, but some think it will take 4 years which may be a bit much.  The Mets are thought to be very interested while the Yankees might be a bit mild due to an attempt to stay under the luxury tax (they have $30 mil of space roughly).
  • James Paxton - this would be an interesting reunion of sorts (drafted first round in 2009 but DNS) now entering his age 32 season with lifetime 114 ERA+, 2.7 BB/9 9.9 K/9 - his ERA was worse last year (65 ERA+) but his BB were a bit worse, and K numbers were better.  It was the 1.8 HR/9 that killed him and a high 10.2 H/9 (his FIP was 4.37 vs ERA of 6.64).  Probably a 1-2 year deal with incentives due to his injury history.  Has never thrown 162 innings (160 is his peak) so not a workhorse, more a guy the Jays would go after if they felt they had no other options.
  • Taijuan Walker, - did great for the Jays, but should they chase him down again?  Just 15 games in the past 3 years.  Entering his age 28 season, I'd certainly kick the tires.  2.8 BB/9 vs 8.2 K/9 lifetime (in line with 2020)  108 ERA+ lifetime is a bit lower than that crazy 161 we saw this year.  If healthy he would be a very solid #3, maybe #2.  The Tigers are interested, but odds are he won't command a massive deal.  I'd imagine 2-3 years at $10-15 per would easily do it.
  • Charlie Morton - Ex-Ray (they declined his $15 mil option) entering his age 37 season, lifetime 3.2 BB/9 8.0 K/9 (2.4 9.9 respectively in 2020).  Was a workhorse before this bizarre season (194 2/3 IP in 2019)  98 ERA+ lifetime.  Would be a solid #3/4 starter and would jump on a 2 year deal I suspect.  I'd bet after being dumped like he was he'd love to stay in the AL East.
  • Mike Minor - tell me if you've heard this one - was a workhorse before 2020, 2.6 BB/9 8.2 K/9 (3.2 9.8 in 2020) 107 ERA+ lifetime but just a 79 last year between Texas & Oakland.  Should be a cheaper signing ($10 mil on a 1 year is possible, but he'll want a 3 year $30 deal), but was a Cy contender in 2019 (144 ERA+ in 208 IP).  A guy like many above with flaws, but potential.  Entering his age 33 season.
  • Many, many others but seeing the names after Bauer & Tanaka you can guess they all have flaws.
Trade potential
  • We already have the guy who was #2 in bWAR last year (Ryu) and #1 is not available (Bieber).  Most of the top 10 are not available (with wealthy teams, or many years from free agency).  Always tough, but lets dig into cheaper teams who might be dumping
  • Oakland: Chris Bassitt was their ace but is entering his age 32 season, has 2 years of control left so Oakland might be tempted to sell high.  181 ERA+ last year 114 lifetime 2.4 BB/9 7.9 K/9 last year both better than his career (3.2 & 7.8).  He missed 2017 and most of 2016/18 due to Tommy John surgery.  Looks like a good guy to chase but Oakland would be asking a lot I'm certain.
  • Texas: dead last in 2020, should clear out vets to rebuild - Lance Lynn signed only for 2021 for just over $9 mil.  Entering his age 34 season he led the league in IP and GS with a 136 ERA+ which was a drop from 2019's 141.  An excellent pitcher who keeps moving around (4 teams in 9 seasons).  Might be a good target but that low contract will make him more prospect expensive despite only 1 year of control.
  • Detroit: was trying to trade Matthew Boyd  before last season but failed to and regrets it now I figure as his value dropped a lot with a 70 ERA+ due to a HR jump (2.2/9) and being wilder than normal (3.3 BB/9). 2 years of control left, but Detroit probably won't trade him now hoping to regain some value in the first half then trade mid-season.
  • David Price - LA Dodgers don't really want/need him as he was payroll relief for Boston so LA could get Betts.  Skipped 2020, now entering his age 35 season with just 2 years left on his big deal.  $32 mil each year but $16 mil paid by the Red Sox.  Since he pitched here in 2015 he has had a 112 or better ERA+ every season.  This might be a good target to chase as he could be an ace, he liked his time here last time, and with just 2 years on the deal and being surplus in LA (their starting 5 had ERA's of 3.44 and down with each getting 8+ starts) the price shouldn't be too high.
Really, I'm not seeing a ton of players out there who are strong trade targets.  Most teams who aren't contenders don't have near free agent pitchers who are high end, nor are there a ton of ugly contracts attached to good pitchers.

So the best targets I see are 1) Bauer if the Jays are willing to do whatever it takes to get the best, 2) Tanaka still dang good and should be a lot cheaper, #3) David Price who the Dodgers might be wanting to dump at this point as he is pure surplus.  After that comes Walker, Morton, Minor, etc.  My money is on a free agent, not a trade.  But dang does Price look tempting depending what the Dodgers think of him after a year off.  I figure one of those 3 and Walker to go with Ryu, Roark (could be dumped), Ray, Stripling (could see Ray/Stripling as a combined team), and then comes whoever they acquire plus Pearson and others.  Getting 2 more would be ideal, then Pearson can be in AAA to start 2021, Roark can be dumped if needed, Ray/Stripling could be a tandem team (neither has shown enough to be handed a rotation slot, but either could do the job potentially).
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Petey Baseball - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 07:31 AM EST (#392260) #
Jays might have trouble getting both, but if Bauer doesn't sign here, and a trade doesn't develop, I'd love to see them try and sign both Kluber and Hamels to one year deals. Kluber has had injury problems, and Hamels could face an AL East adjustment, but they've both been aces in the not so distant past. 3.43 ERA for Hamels career is outstanding consistency. Kluber was one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago and at 35, probably has another good year in him.

I've never liked Odorizzi as a fit for the Jays; he doesn't seem worth committing multiple years to.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 09:58 AM EST (#392262) #
The Jays traded a really good prospect for Stripling, so I think he has a roster spot locked up. The Jays are already betting on rebounds from Ray/Stripling, so I want proven commodities from the trade front if they miss out on Bauer.

Zac Gallen or Frankie Montas would be names I would target.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 10:06 AM EST (#392263) #
Atkins did say that he has enough pitchers to supply innings. They want another quality arm is the goal. Shapiro said strike throwers are needed.

Seems to me strike throwers in house are Zeuch and Borucki to name 2. SRF is working on improving his strike throwing to name 1.

scottt - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 10:10 AM EST (#392264) #
What the Jays gave up for Stripling shouldn't have any bearing on how they use him.
He's one guy who could start in the pen and move to the rotation mid-year.
The Jays have a couple of guys like Pearson and Merryweather who are not going to last the whole year in the rotation.

Clevinger will have TJ and miss all of next year. Cleveland traded him just in time.

bpoz - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 11:23 AM EST (#392265) #
More than likely the Stripling trade favors the Jays. Stripling is a decent pitcher and cheap. Williams may or may not develop. He has a long way to go, but definitely has potential.

Look at the Clevinger trade. Clevinger, G Allen and PTNL. 6 players given up by SD. Most likely none of the players will have an impact in the future. TJ erodes Clevinger's value. But these things happen.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 11:37 AM EST (#392266) #
If the playoff format is back to 5 I don't count the Jays as strong enough to qualify. ALE and ALC most likely provide the 2 WCs. But it is good to have hope.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 12:10 PM EST (#392267) #
You're right, bpoz, a lot of times you can look back on trades and the prospects, or even major league players, involved really don't amount to much. Then there's the odd one where one team gets fleeced like Tampa Bay did to Pittsburgh on the Archer deal.

I wish baseball had more trades. Basketball teams have fewer players on their rosters yet they go nuts swapping guys.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 01:29 PM EST (#392268) #
I guess you need to look at the shelf live of the players that you bring into the organization.

Halliday and Verlander were elite so when they joined their new teams they were there for the purpose of winning a championship.

Marcum was traded for a potential impact player. Milwaukee had doubts about him and so we got him. I was very excited about Lawrie.

I also don't always like the old wisdom:-

1) The team acquiring the best player wins. Halladay/Verlander. Archer/Happ.

2) SP is always better than reliever. Morrow for Brandan ??

3) You can always move down the defensive ladder. SS to 2B/3B. Dickie Joe Thon vs K Bryant.

I gave a SSS and can also be accused of cherry picking. That is ok. If others add more examples That would be great.

Now for the New wisdom that I will never fully grasp:-

1) WAR??

New wisdom that I am figuring out:-

1) The opener, tandem starts and never go 3 times through the batting order unless you are a good SP.

2) The shift.

There is a lot more but I don't know what just yet.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 04:00 PM EST (#392269) #
I get the logic behind an opener and tandem starts and avoiding 3 times through the order. Don't like them, but I get them. The shift as well. For the shift players just need to adjust: IE: bunting if they leave one side wide open or slapping it the other way for a single (it would've been useless vs players like Tony Fernandez, Damaso Garcia, George Bell who all were great at just making contact).

I think teams are going too far with the 3 times through the order thing. There is selection bias in there of course. But generally guys who go 3+ times through the order don't seem to collapse instantly which some coaches are acting like they do. I think the next order of analysis will be arm angles and consistency of it and once a pitcher starts to go down a certain amount that is when you pull, rather than '3 times through the order'. I suspect the view they loose effectiveness then is more fatigue than the batters have seen him too much. So watch the arm and if it starts to drop then pull otherwise let him go. No stats to back it up, just logic from decades of watching and talking with coaches and pitchers when I was younger (in university). A tired arm is one that gets hurt and gets hit.
scottt - Tuesday, November 17 2020 @ 04:27 PM EST (#392271) #
My only problem with the shift is when Jays starters throw to the outside corner and there's nobody near third.
Especially with 2 strikes and the hitter is choking and fouling pitches.
I rarely see other teams doing that.

The 3 times through the order depends on the pitch count as well.
If the starters throw 24 pitches in the first inning, you're already in line for only 4 innings.
The manager will often try to give the starter that extra inning just to see him walk the first hitter.
Anderson and Roark did very poorly there.

Walker went 6 innings on 91 pitches in his first outing, 5.2 innings on 81 pitches on the second.
Only 4 innings on his 3rd start, but he threw 88 pitches. (Jays won 2-1).
Then there was the game at Yankees Stadium.
6 innings against the Phillies on 104 pitches, but then only 3 innings in his last start but only to save him for the playoffs where he didn't play.
Shoemaker was similar.

Ray, Pearson and Merryweather were special cases.
Thorton was hurt from the start, went 4, 0.2, than 1 inning.
Stripling went 7, 5.1 and 5.2 innings in his first 3 starts (with LA), ERA of 4.0. Then he struggled and threw between 3 and 4.1 innings in  6 starts.

krose - Wednesday, November 18 2020 @ 05:34 PM EST (#392285) #
Possible Jays starters for 2021: Ryu, Ray, Pearson, Merryweather, Roark, Stripling. Another free agent starter is likely to be added, perhaps Walker. That’s a fairly good seven members, for the beginning of the season. One of my favourite parts of following baseball is watching the development of young players. Young pitchers who will also be competing for Jay’s starting roles this spring include Kay, Hatch, Murphy and Zeuch. Should be interesting to watch who gets chances in the starting roles this year. One or more of the young pitchers could take big steps and become effective team members.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 18 2020 @ 08:10 PM EST (#392288) #
Agree 100% krose.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 18 2020 @ 09:59 PM EST (#392289) #
I'm betting by July someone will be in the rotation who we didn't consider yet. Either via a trade/off waiver wire/released by someone else or a minor leaguer who we didn't think of. Always seems to happen. Who expected Jacob Waguespack to get 13 starts in 2019 (gained via a trade of Aaron Loup in 2018)? Sam Gaviglio 24 in 2018 (got in late March for a PTBNL)? Brett Anderson in 2017 (released by Cubs in July)? Etc. Not always good results, but it happens a lot. My favorites are the weird ones - Mauro Gozzo in 1989 (minor league rule 5 pick) who went 3-0 in his first 3 starts in the majors then won in relief in his next game, sadly that was the end of the magic - 1.23 ERA then, 13.03 after. Or the former bat boy of the Rays - Jessie Litsch - 118 ERA+ his first 2 seasons (287 IP over 48 starts 1 relief game) then flop (82 ERA+ over next 130 2/3 IP then done after his age 26 season, still not bad for a 24th round pick).

Lylemcr - Thursday, November 19 2020 @ 01:00 PM EST (#392293) #
Christmas wish list - Walker and Paxton.
bpoz - Thursday, November 19 2020 @ 01:50 PM EST (#392294) #
3 more years of Ryu. I expect 3 SPs to step up.

Garvin, Lemanchuk, Vukavich. Almost had Guidry.

Steib, Key, Clancy.

D Wells, Guzman, Hentgen. Almost had R Johnson.

Carpenter, Halladay, K Escobar.

Stroman, Syndergaard, Osuna, Sanchez.

I fully expect our farm to produce 3 SPs like above.
John Northey - Thursday, November 19 2020 @ 02:10 PM EST (#392295) #
bpoz - ah the old 'what if' there - Ron Guidry would've made the Jays early years a lot more interesting. But Gillick was overturned and after 1978 no one would question Gillick again I suspect (Guidry having a sub 2 ERA and 25-3 record back when that was all most cared about). Randy Johnson was soooo close to being a Jay - if Gillick wasn't ethical he would've been instead of Rickey Henderson - Seattle called accepting the deal after Gillick hung up after verbally agreeing to the deal for Rickey. Both invovled the same player leaving (Steve Karsay). Would've made 94 and beyond more fun. Imagine 1997/1998 with Clemens and Johnson and Hentgen in the rotation (plus guys like Chris Carpenter)...drool.

Ah well. The old 'what could've been'. But we did get those 2 WS wins which was great. Now the question is who will make it from our current farm and who will the Jays have join them. Bauer is so tempting but such a tease with those 2 amazing years with a 106 ERA+ year between them. Ah well, we'll see what happens. I just hope the Jays do sign someone significant this winter.
bpoz - Thursday, November 19 2020 @ 02:45 PM EST (#392298) #
We definitely cannot complain about our farm producing V good SPs. We also signed Ryu, Clemens, Morris and Stewart because we offered the best deal. They were all #1s.

Guidry, Johnson, Guzman and the likes of Lemonjello were prospects that had a chance. JPR got a kid (Propopeck?) from LAD I think. They all have a chance.

I suppose Gillick only did those kind of prospect trades before the Jays started to win. Except for Johnson who may have been established, a bit at least. I cannot think of any SP prospects that Ash traded for. AA was Drabek and Morrow. The Cincy guy that came with EE.

Shapiro and Atkins have brought us Hatch, Kay and many others. In Cleveland they traded for prospects like Kluber and Clevenger. Both 4th round picks.

With all the above said I like the potential success for our pitching.

D Ward was good but we could have had Glavine.

I think we should always be on the lookout for wildcard prospects. So Riley Pint was a HS pitcher picked 4th overall in 2016 by Colorado. They have a bad team and so will protect him from the Rule 5 draft even though he is their #26 prospect. Injured and recovering in 2018 and 19. Most likely a failure rather than a success. But with quantity we get better odds.
John Northey - Thursday, November 19 2020 @ 07:49 PM EST (#392300) #
1986 the Jays did kind of blow it with their trades with Atlanta - sent them Doyle Alexander (who was one of the Jays top 3 in '85) for Duane Ward (a 22 year old wild thing who walked 113 in 155 IP) and Jim Acker (decent reliever, potential starter) for Joe Johnson (24 year old low K low BB guy who was unlikely to cut it in the majors, 1987 was his final year). Glavine had just reached AAA that year at age 20 but given how poorly run Atlanta was he might have been getable instead of Johnson or Ward. Both deals done the same day - not sure why it wasn't just one trade but listed as two anyways. After the season was done they traded Damaso Garcia and Luis Leal to Atlanta for Craig McMurtry which led to the messy 2B situtaiton in 1987 that cost the division (Garth Iorg and his 44 OPS+ as the regular...ugh). Of course Damaso was injured for all of 1987 so he wouldn't have helped. Ah well. Past is past.

The missed calls in the 80's are scary given how good the Jays were then (always on the edge of greatness it felt). Just missing on Ron Guidry, Wade Boggs (was unprotected for 2 years in the rule 5 draft and Gillick said he debated it both times then was ready to take him year 3 but Boston protected him at last), Tom Glavine (if he was an option in those deals - I hadn't read that anywhere). I did find a fun article about Doyle and his trade history. Spoiler - Ward wasn't the best player he was traded for, or the 2nd best (John Smoltz & Frank Robinson) and might not have been the best reliever (he was traded for Tippy Martinez who picked off 3 Jays in one inning) - OK, he was better than Martinez.
scottt - Thursday, November 19 2020 @ 08:42 PM EST (#392304) #
Players will be added to the rule 5 tomorrow.
The Jays have 5 spots. They shouldn't use more than 2 or 3.
Moreno is a no-brainer.
The next highest ranked prospect is Otto Lopez, but he would have only reach AA this year.
Next is Kevin Smith, he's 24 and still looking for his stroke.
Riley Adams has been more selective and he's supposed to have more power than anyone else in the system right now.
He's also ready for tryout. Except he'd be the 5th catcher on the roster. Should probably trade McGuire and roll the dice.
Josh Palacios is said to have looked good in camp. He can play all outfield position.
Would make sense since Davis is the only outfielder with options left, but he's unlikely to be drafted.
Ty Tice is a well liked lefty reliever.
Josh Winckowski has the potential to be a 4th or 5th starter down the road. Probably not ready now.
Nobody else is at risk.

diamonds38 - Thursday, November 19 2020 @ 09:36 PM EST (#392305) #
Tice is a right handed pitcher.
scottt - Friday, November 20 2020 @ 08:32 AM EST (#392306) #
Always had him as a lefty. 
Hmm. He bats left.

I guess that makes me more curious as to what the Jays like in him.
More than 1 K per inning, usually at least 2 Ks per walk.
Keeps the ball in the park.
Fangraphs has Tice listed as a stiff-body older-relief type.
They describe him as a fastball/slider relief sort who tops at 97mph.
So, similar to Romano.
Sounds like he could be a draft target.

bpoz - Friday, November 20 2020 @ 10:26 AM EST (#392309) #
Rosters freeze at 5 pm today?
John Northey - Friday, November 20 2020 @ 01:19 PM EST (#392312) #
Rule 5 is always interesting. Picks from 2016 high school and international free agents that year, plus 2017 College players.

2016 has already produced Bo, Biggio, and Zeuch while J.B. Woodman was traded for Aledmys Díaz in December 2017 and has since retired. Zach Jackson was in Buffalo in 2019 (9-0 3.97 ERA 9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9). Josh Palacios was also in that draft before Biggio. But for high schoolers you get $100k+ bonuses for Bo, D.J. Daniels, Travis Hosterman, Josh Winckowski, Dom Abbadessa, Ryan Gold, and Chavez Young. None of the lower draft bonus guys jump out at me.

2017's college players with known bonuses were... Nate Pearson (only one to reach from that draft for the Jays so far), Logan Warmoth got $2.8 mil (reached AA but did poorly there, overall 255/332/346 in the minors now entering age 25 season and looking like a bust to me), Riley Adams, Kevin Smith, Cullen Large, Brock Lundquist, Colton Laws, Kacy Clemens, Zach Logue, Justin Dillon (10th round), Donnie Sellers, Matt Shannon, Brody Rodning, PK Morris, Ryan Noda, Ty Tice (16th round and lowest pick we know the bonus of). Next year the high schoolers from this draft need protecting - Hagen Danner is the highest one ($1.5 mil - got to Lansing in 2019, just a 191/280/353 line so far in the minors).

It'll be interesting to see how it goes - I expect the Jays to fill every slot as they can drop guys iirc after the fixed date, or could just hold off on trades/free agent signings until after Rule 5. Don't see the Jays doing any drafting this year.
Cracka - Friday, November 20 2020 @ 03:10 PM EST (#392315) #
One wildcard to consider: the size of MLB rosters in 2021. We know that it's at least 26... but it was 28 this season and it's possible that could continue in 2021, either on a temporary basis or even permanently. There didn't appear to be an obvious downside to it. It created 60 extra MLB jobs and prevented some overuse of pitchers, probably lowering injury risks.

I think having 28 spots makes it significantly easier to roster a Rule 5 player. We saw several teams with 3 catchers or 6 outfielders or 10 deep bullpens. We likely won't know until March or April, but if it be interesting to see if teams are more aggressive this year with the extra 1-3 spots available.
John Northey - Saturday, November 21 2020 @ 03:47 PM EST (#392332) #
Unless the season is shortened - which I doubt given the vaccines should be in wide use by summer - I figure a full roster will be "just" 26 players (bigger than any season other than 2020). It'll be interesting to see how teams adjust after the freakshow 2020. You can't push the pens like they were in 2020.
scottt - Sunday, November 22 2020 @ 09:29 AM EST (#392338) #
I was reading some Buffalo news.
They don't know if they are still the Jays' AAA affiliate.
They think so, but nothing has been confirmed.

There are currently no minor leagues.
Some teams are gone, some have changed affiliation.
The key objective seem to reduce travel, so to that effect, there may be more than 2 AAA leagues (International and Pacific Coast). Or there might just be a single league with more than 2 divisions. Everything is up in the air.

The Buffalo management is happy about the new lights, but they don't think they can play without fans in the seats.
It's unlikely that the Jays would be playing in Buffalo in 2021 since that would keep the AAA team from playing.
If the plan is to start in the US and eventually play in Toronto when the border finally opens, the Jays will probably play in Florida or share another team's park such as Pittsburgh. They'll likely try to get approval earlier this time.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, November 22 2020 @ 09:57 AM EST (#392339) #
It's unlikely that the Jays would be playing in Buffalo in 2021 since that would keep the AAA team from playing.
If the plan is to start in the US and eventually play in Toronto when the border finally opens, the Jays will probably play in Florida or share another team's park such as Pittsburgh. They'll likely try to get approval earlier this time.

Well, if they could share another MLB team's park such as Pittsburgh, then they could share Buffalo with the AAA affiliate, I guess. On days where they're both there the Bisons could play in the afternoon and the Jays in the evening. If they're not allowed to share any stadium, then I imagine the Jays would play in Buffalo and the Bisons would play in one of the minor league parks who don't have a team anymore.

The way things are going vaccine-wise, the border might be open by sometime in the summer, and the team could come back to Toronto.
John Northey - Sunday, November 22 2020 @ 01:52 PM EST (#392341) #
The minors are a mess right now. MLB decided to cut back to 4 affiliates per team (AAA/AA/A+/A) and probably a summer camp for any others (short season players). Some short season teams (such as Vancouver) might shift to full season while many short season and some full season will either fold or become indy teams. For MLB that is a major savings as they cut 2-4 teams per club from expenses and by reducing the draft they'll cut the number of high schoolers going into the system - moving towards a system like the NBA I suspect where players only go from high school to the pros rarely while most are trained for free (to the majors) in college. The odd player, like A-Rod, Bryce Harper, Griffy Jr, etc. will go high school to pro but the vast majority won't.

For example, 2013: Jays drafted and signed high schoolers Danny Jansen (16th round), Rowdy Tellez (30th round), and Patrick Murphy (10th round). Under the new setup odds are none would've been drafted, instead all would've gone to college and been drafted in 2015 or later. Jansen spent his first 2 years in rookie ball, Tellez spent the vast majority of his first 2 years in rookie ball, Murphy was rookie, year off (Tommy John), A-. All of their first 2 years would've been in college in that case with about the same games/experience. I doubt any of their careers would've been negatively impacted.

2013 also saw the Jays waste their first pick on high schooler Phil Bickford who didn't sign, and blow $700k on Jake Brentz in the 11th round who hasn't gotten past AAA yet (on his 4th organization in 2019, might be going to a 5th this year). Plus hundreds of thousands each for Clinton Hollon, Evan Smith, and Conner Greene. Meanwhile cheap college picks Kendall Graveman, Matthew Boyd, Tim Locastro (OF in Arizona 130 OPS+ last year lost for international bonus money), Tim Mayza, Chad Girodo, Matt Dermody, and Jonathan Davis cost less in total than any one of those high schoolers. Well, Mazya was $100k and Boyd $75k but the net for all was probably under $200-300k. Only Green & Jansen among those HS'ers signed for less.

So looking at that what would you do if you ran a ML team? Would you be inclined to risk tons of money on high schoolers year in year out in hopes of getting a Roy Halladay or do you encourage the league to say 'screw it' and save the money you are blowing on those kids and on the teams in the lower minors to develop them and save a few million a year? Plus get to watch the ones whose arms break have that happen in college instead where it won't cost you to rehabilitate them.
scottt - Sunday, November 22 2020 @ 05:01 PM EST (#392343) #
It's different for minor league teams. There is no broadcast revenue.
The Buffalo owners are not paying people t o play in another park.
Those employees are not traveling.
The Buffalo clubhouse is too small to share.
At any rate, the easy solution is to play in Florida.
The Raptors are already playing in Tampa.

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