Jays might have trouble getting both, but if Bauer doesn't sign here, and a trade doesn't develop, I'd love to see them try and sign both Kluber and Hamels to one year deals. Kluber has had injury problems, and Hamels could face an AL East adjustment, but they've both been aces in the not so distant past. 3.43 ERA for Hamels career is outstanding consistency. Kluber was one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago and at 35, probably has another good year in him.

I've never liked Odorizzi as a fit for the Jays; he doesn't seem worth committing multiple years to.

The Jays traded a really good prospect for Stripling, so I think he has a roster spot locked up. The Jays are already betting on rebounds from Ray/Stripling, so I want proven commodities from the trade front if they miss out on Bauer.

Zac Gallen or Frankie Montas would be names I would target.

Atkins did say that he has enough pitchers to supply innings. They want another quality arm is the goal. Shapiro said strike throwers are needed.

Seems to me strike throwers in house are Zeuch and Borucki to name 2. SRF is working on improving his strike throwing to name 1.

What the Jays gave up for Stripling shouldn't have any bearing on how they use him.
He's one guy who could start in the pen and move to the rotation mid-year.
The Jays have a couple of guys like Pearson and Merryweather who are not going to last the whole year in the rotation.

Clevinger will have TJ and miss all of next year. Cleveland traded him just in time.

More than likely the Stripling trade favors the Jays. Stripling is a decent pitcher and cheap. Williams may or may not develop. He has a long way to go, but definitely has potential.

Look at the Clevinger trade. Clevinger, G Allen and PTNL. 6 players given up by SD. Most likely none of the players will have an impact in the future. TJ erodes Clevinger's value. But these things happen.

If the playoff format is back to 5 I don't count the Jays as strong enough to qualify. ALE and ALC most likely provide the 2 WCs. But it is good to have hope.

You're right, bpoz, a lot of times you can look back on trades and the prospects, or even major league players, involved really don't amount to much. Then there's the odd one where one team gets fleeced like Tampa Bay did to Pittsburgh on the Archer deal.

I wish baseball had more trades. Basketball teams have fewer players on their rosters yet they go nuts swapping guys.

I guess you need to look at the shelf live of the players that you bring into the organization.

Halliday and Verlander were elite so when they joined their new teams they were there for the purpose of winning a championship.

Marcum was traded for a potential impact player. Milwaukee had doubts about him and so we got him. I was very excited about Lawrie.

I also don't always like the old wisdom:-

1) The team acquiring the best player wins. Halladay/Verlander. Archer/Happ.

2) SP is always better than reliever. Morrow for Brandan ??

3) You can always move down the defensive ladder. SS to 2B/3B. Dickie Joe Thon vs K Bryant.

I gave a SSS and can also be accused of cherry picking. That is ok. If others add more examples That would be great.

Now for the New wisdom that I will never fully grasp:-

1) WAR??

New wisdom that I am figuring out:-

1) The opener, tandem starts and never go 3 times through the batting order unless you are a good SP.

2) The shift.

There is a lot more but I don't know what just yet.

I get the logic behind an opener and tandem starts and avoiding 3 times through the order. Don't like them, but I get them. The shift as well. For the shift players just need to adjust: IE: bunting if they leave one side wide open or slapping it the other way for a single (it would've been useless vs players like Tony Fernandez, Damaso Garcia, George Bell who all were great at just making contact).

I think teams are going too far with the 3 times through the order thing. There is selection bias in there of course. But generally guys who go 3+ times through the order don't seem to collapse instantly which some coaches are acting like they do. I think the next order of analysis will be arm angles and consistency of it and once a pitcher starts to go down a certain amount that is when you pull, rather than '3 times through the order'. I suspect the view they loose effectiveness then is more fatigue than the batters have seen him too much. So watch the arm and if it starts to drop then pull otherwise let him go. No stats to back it up, just logic from decades of watching and talking with coaches and pitchers when I was younger (in university). A tired arm is one that gets hurt and gets hit.

My only problem with the shift is when Jays starters throw to the outside corner and there's nobody near third.
Especially with 2 strikes and the hitter is choking and fouling pitches.
I rarely see other teams doing that.

The 3 times through the order depends on the pitch count as well.
If the starters throw 24 pitches in the first inning, you're already in line for only 4 innings.
The manager will often try to give the starter that extra inning just to see him walk the first hitter.
Anderson and Roark did very poorly there.

Walker went 6 innings on 91 pitches in his first outing, 5.2 innings on 81 pitches on the second.
Only 4 innings on his 3rd start, but he threw 88 pitches. (Jays won 2-1).
Then there was the game at Yankees Stadium.
6 innings against the Phillies on 104 pitches, but then only 3 innings in his last start but only to save him for the playoffs where he didn't play.
Shoemaker was similar.

Ray, Pearson and Merryweather were special cases.
Thorton was hurt from the start, went 4, 0.2, than 1 inning.
Stripling went 7, 5.1 and 5.2 innings in his first 3 starts (with LA), ERA of 4.0. Then he struggled and threw between 3 and 4.1 innings in  6 starts.

Possible Jays starters for 2021: Ryu, Ray, Pearson, Merryweather, Roark, Stripling. Another free agent starter is likely to be added, perhaps Walker. That’s a fairly good seven members, for the beginning of the season. One of my favourite parts of following baseball is watching the development of young players. Young pitchers who will also be competing for Jay’s starting roles this spring include Kay, Hatch, Murphy and Zeuch. Should be interesting to watch who gets chances in the starting roles this year. One or more of the young pitchers could take big steps and become effective team members.

Agree 100% krose.

I'm betting by July someone will be in the rotation who we didn't consider yet. Either via a trade/off waiver wire/released by someone else or a minor leaguer who we didn't think of. Always seems to happen. Who expected Jacob Waguespack to get 13 starts in 2019 (gained via a trade of Aaron Loup in 2018)? Sam Gaviglio 24 in 2018 (got in late March for a PTBNL)? Brett Anderson in 2017 (released by Cubs in July)? Etc. Not always good results, but it happens a lot. My favorites are the weird ones - Mauro Gozzo in 1989 (minor league rule 5 pick) who went 3-0 in his first 3 starts in the majors then won in relief in his next game, sadly that was the end of the magic - 1.23 ERA then, 13.03 after. Or the former bat boy of the Rays - Jessie Litsch - 118 ERA+ his first 2 seasons (287 IP over 48 starts 1 relief game) then flop (82 ERA+ over next 130 2/3 IP then done after his age 26 season, still not bad for a 24th round pick).

Christmas wish list - Walker and Paxton.

3 more years of Ryu. I expect 3 SPs to step up.

Garvin, Lemanchuk, Vukavich. Almost had Guidry.

Steib, Key, Clancy.

D Wells, Guzman, Hentgen. Almost had R Johnson.

Carpenter, Halladay, K Escobar.

Stroman, Syndergaard, Osuna, Sanchez.

I fully expect our farm to produce 3 SPs like above.

bpoz - ah the old 'what if' there - Ron Guidry would've made the Jays early years a lot more interesting. But Gillick was overturned and after 1978 no one would question Gillick again I suspect (Guidry having a sub 2 ERA and 25-3 record back when that was all most cared about). Randy Johnson was soooo close to being a Jay - if Gillick wasn't ethical he would've been instead of Rickey Henderson - Seattle called accepting the deal after Gillick hung up after verbally agreeing to the deal for Rickey. Both invovled the same player leaving (Steve Karsay). Would've made 94 and beyond more fun. Imagine 1997/1998 with Clemens and Johnson and Hentgen in the rotation (plus guys like Chris Carpenter)...drool.

Ah well. The old 'what could've been'. But we did get those 2 WS wins which was great. Now the question is who will make it from our current farm and who will the Jays have join them. Bauer is so tempting but such a tease with those 2 amazing years with a 106 ERA+ year between them. Ah well, we'll see what happens. I just hope the Jays do sign someone significant this winter.

We definitely cannot complain about our farm producing V good SPs. We also signed Ryu, Clemens, Morris and Stewart because we offered the best deal. They were all #1s.

Guidry, Johnson, Guzman and the likes of Lemonjello were prospects that had a chance. JPR got a kid (Propopeck?) from LAD I think. They all have a chance.

I suppose Gillick only did those kind of prospect trades before the Jays started to win. Except for Johnson who may have been established, a bit at least. I cannot think of any SP prospects that Ash traded for. AA was Drabek and Morrow. The Cincy guy that came with EE.

Shapiro and Atkins have brought us Hatch, Kay and many others. In Cleveland they traded for prospects like Kluber and Clevenger. Both 4th round picks.

With all the above said I like the potential success for our pitching.

D Ward was good but we could have had Glavine.

I think we should always be on the lookout for wildcard prospects. So Riley Pint was a HS pitcher picked 4th overall in 2016 by Colorado. They have a bad team and so will protect him from the Rule 5 draft even though he is their #26 prospect. Injured and recovering in 2018 and 19. Most likely a failure rather than a success. But with quantity we get better odds.

1986 the Jays did kind of blow it with their trades with Atlanta - sent them Doyle Alexander (who was one of the Jays top 3 in '85) for Duane Ward (a 22 year old wild thing who walked 113 in 155 IP) and Jim Acker (decent reliever, potential starter) for Joe Johnson (24 year old low K low BB guy who was unlikely to cut it in the majors, 1987 was his final year). Glavine had just reached AAA that year at age 20 but given how poorly run Atlanta was he might have been getable instead of Johnson or Ward. Both deals done the same day - not sure why it wasn't just one trade but listed as two anyways. After the season was done they traded Damaso Garcia and Luis Leal to Atlanta for Craig McMurtry which led to the messy 2B situtaiton in 1987 that cost the division (Garth Iorg and his 44 OPS+ as the regular...ugh). Of course Damaso was injured for all of 1987 so he wouldn't have helped. Ah well. Past is past.

The missed calls in the 80's are scary given how good the Jays were then (always on the edge of greatness it felt). Just missing on Ron Guidry, Wade Boggs (was unprotected for 2 years in the rule 5 draft and Gillick said he debated it both times then was ready to take him year 3 but Boston protected him at last), Tom Glavine (if he was an option in those deals - I hadn't read that anywhere). I did find a fun article about Doyle and his trade history. Spoiler - Ward wasn't the best player he was traded for, or the 2nd best (John Smoltz & Frank Robinson) and might not have been the best reliever (he was traded for Tippy Martinez who picked off 3 Jays in one inning) - OK, he was better than Martinez.

Players will be added to the rule 5 tomorrow.
The Jays have 5 spots. They shouldn't use more than 2 or 3.
Moreno is a no-brainer.
The next highest ranked prospect is Otto Lopez, but he would have only reach AA this year.
Next is Kevin Smith, he's 24 and still looking for his stroke.
Riley Adams has been more selective and he's supposed to have more power than anyone else in the system right now.
He's also ready for tryout. Except he'd be the 5th catcher on the roster. Should probably trade McGuire and roll the dice.
Josh Palacios is said to have looked good in camp. He can play all outfield position.
Would make sense since Davis is the only outfielder with options left, but he's unlikely to be drafted.
Ty Tice is a well liked lefty reliever.
Josh Winckowski has the potential to be a 4th or 5th starter down the road. Probably not ready now.
Nobody else is at risk.

Tice is a right handed pitcher.

Always had him as a lefty. 
Hmm. He bats left.

I guess that makes me more curious as to what the Jays like in him.
More than 1 K per inning, usually at least 2 Ks per walk.
Keeps the ball in the park.
Fangraphs has Tice listed as a stiff-body older-relief type.
They describe him as a fastball/slider relief sort who tops at 97mph.
So, similar to Romano.
Sounds like he could be a draft target.

Rosters freeze at 5 pm today?

Rule 5 is always interesting. Picks from 2016 high school and international free agents that year, plus 2017 College players.

2016 has already produced Bo, Biggio, and Zeuch while J.B. Woodman was traded for Aledmys Díaz in December 2017 and has since retired. Zach Jackson was in Buffalo in 2019 (9-0 3.97 ERA 9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9). Josh Palacios was also in that draft before Biggio. But for high schoolers you get $100k+ bonuses for Bo, D.J. Daniels, Travis Hosterman, Josh Winckowski, Dom Abbadessa, Ryan Gold, and Chavez Young. None of the lower draft bonus guys jump out at me.

2017's college players with known bonuses were... Nate Pearson (only one to reach from that draft for the Jays so far), Logan Warmoth got $2.8 mil (reached AA but did poorly there, overall 255/332/346 in the minors now entering age 25 season and looking like a bust to me), Riley Adams, Kevin Smith, Cullen Large, Brock Lundquist, Colton Laws, Kacy Clemens, Zach Logue, Justin Dillon (10th round), Donnie Sellers, Matt Shannon, Brody Rodning, PK Morris, Ryan Noda, Ty Tice (16th round and lowest pick we know the bonus of). Next year the high schoolers from this draft need protecting - Hagen Danner is the highest one ($1.5 mil - got to Lansing in 2019, just a 191/280/353 line so far in the minors).

It'll be interesting to see how it goes - I expect the Jays to fill every slot as they can drop guys iirc after the fixed date, or could just hold off on trades/free agent signings until after Rule 5. Don't see the Jays doing any drafting this year.

One wildcard to consider: the size of MLB rosters in 2021. We know that it's at least 26... but it was 28 this season and it's possible that could continue in 2021, either on a temporary basis or even permanently. There didn't appear to be an obvious downside to it. It created 60 extra MLB jobs and prevented some overuse of pitchers, probably lowering injury risks.

I think having 28 spots makes it significantly easier to roster a Rule 5 player. We saw several teams with 3 catchers or 6 outfielders or 10 deep bullpens. We likely won't know until March or April, but if it be interesting to see if teams are more aggressive this year with the extra 1-3 spots available.

Unless the season is shortened - which I doubt given the vaccines should be in wide use by summer - I figure a full roster will be "just" 26 players (bigger than any season other than 2020). It'll be interesting to see how teams adjust after the freakshow 2020. You can't push the pens like they were in 2020.

I was reading some Buffalo news.
They don't know if they are still the Jays' AAA affiliate.
They think so, but nothing has been confirmed.

There are currently no minor leagues.
Some teams are gone, some have changed affiliation.
The key objective seem to reduce travel, so to that effect, there may be more than 2 AAA leagues (International and Pacific Coast). Or there might just be a single league with more than 2 divisions. Everything is up in the air.

The Buffalo management is happy about the new lights, but they don't think they can play without fans in the seats.
It's unlikely that the Jays would be playing in Buffalo in 2021 since that would keep the AAA team from playing.
If the plan is to start in the US and eventually play in Toronto when the border finally opens, the Jays will probably play in Florida or share another team's park such as Pittsburgh. They'll likely try to get approval earlier this time.

It's unlikely that the Jays would be playing in Buffalo in 2021 since that would keep the AAA team from playing.
If the plan is to start in the US and eventually play in Toronto when the border finally opens, the Jays will probably play in Florida or share another team's park such as Pittsburgh. They'll likely try to get approval earlier this time.

Well, if they could share another MLB team's park such as Pittsburgh, then they could share Buffalo with the AAA affiliate, I guess. On days where they're both there the Bisons could play in the afternoon and the Jays in the evening. If they're not allowed to share any stadium, then I imagine the Jays would play in Buffalo and the Bisons would play in one of the minor league parks who don't have a team anymore.

The way things are going vaccine-wise, the border might be open by sometime in the summer, and the team could come back to Toronto.

The minors are a mess right now. MLB decided to cut back to 4 affiliates per team (AAA/AA/A+/A) and probably a summer camp for any others (short season players). Some short season teams (such as Vancouver) might shift to full season while many short season and some full season will either fold or become indy teams. For MLB that is a major savings as they cut 2-4 teams per club from expenses and by reducing the draft they'll cut the number of high schoolers going into the system - moving towards a system like the NBA I suspect where players only go from high school to the pros rarely while most are trained for free (to the majors) in college. The odd player, like A-Rod, Bryce Harper, Griffy Jr, etc. will go high school to pro but the vast majority won't.

For example, 2013: Jays drafted and signed high schoolers Danny Jansen (16th round), Rowdy Tellez (30th round), and Patrick Murphy (10th round). Under the new setup odds are none would've been drafted, instead all would've gone to college and been drafted in 2015 or later. Jansen spent his first 2 years in rookie ball, Tellez spent the vast majority of his first 2 years in rookie ball, Murphy was rookie, year off (Tommy John), A-. All of their first 2 years would've been in college in that case with about the same games/experience. I doubt any of their careers would've been negatively impacted.

2013 also saw the Jays waste their first pick on high schooler Phil Bickford who didn't sign, and blow $700k on Jake Brentz in the 11th round who hasn't gotten past AAA yet (on his 4th organization in 2019, might be going to a 5th this year). Plus hundreds of thousands each for Clinton Hollon, Evan Smith, and Conner Greene. Meanwhile cheap college picks Kendall Graveman, Matthew Boyd, Tim Locastro (OF in Arizona 130 OPS+ last year lost for international bonus money), Tim Mayza, Chad Girodo, Matt Dermody, and Jonathan Davis cost less in total than any one of those high schoolers. Well, Mazya was $100k and Boyd $75k but the net for all was probably under $200-300k. Only Green & Jansen among those HS'ers signed for less.

So looking at that what would you do if you ran a ML team? Would you be inclined to risk tons of money on high schoolers year in year out in hopes of getting a Roy Halladay or do you encourage the league to say 'screw it' and save the money you are blowing on those kids and on the teams in the lower minors to develop them and save a few million a year? Plus get to watch the ones whose arms break have that happen in college instead where it won't cost you to rehabilitate them.

It's different for minor league teams. There is no broadcast revenue.
The Buffalo owners are not paying people t o play in another park.
Those employees are not traveling.
The Buffalo clubhouse is too small to share.
At any rate, the easy solution is to play in Florida.
The Raptors are already playing in Tampa.