Bauer, Realmoto and Springer are definitely impact players. They are worth chasing.

I think Tanaka is the one that the Jays may snag. He is probably wanting more than 2 years. So 3. A 4 year offer would make any team a strong candidate. LAA has to go hard after him IMO.

Maybe Jansen's progressive Myopia has changed and whoever all overlooked his initial need for glasses are myopic all over again.
I almost feel sorry for Shapiro and Atkins having to have been the reality grinches since they arrived and now they finally have $$ and prospects to finally buy exciting things. ( Why do the pictures of Atkins holding a cel not have the same coolness as those of Alex A when its dealmaking time?).
But if its true that some $$ is available then I hope they get Bauer or Tanaka otherwise I prefer they keep their powder mostly dry for after the inevitable pleasant and unpleasant surprises due next season. A little more patience. Maybe I still remember the Ricciardi one time bu(r)st
I doubt we get Liam cause it would remind too many people of his being unexplicably given away to many people's chagrin at the time for Chavez

" he's still the only MLB player in history to share my name."

Dang, I thought your parents called you Eephus because you were slow and unexpected.

IMO the ones to chase are at the top - Bauer, Springer, LeMahieu (if willing to go to 3B), Masahiro Tanaka, and my personal favorite if scouts say he is for real - Ha-Seong Kim. When you can get younger and better with no cost other than $$$ you gotta go for it. One of Bauer (ace) or Tanaka (potential #1). and one of the hitters (Kim, LeMahieu, or Springer) would be a great winter for the Jays. If Springer then they try to trade one of the OF for a 3B or pitcher. Guys like Walker are nice to have but if he is the best they get this winter it won't be a good 2021 I suspect.

If 2020 had been a normal 162 game season the Jays would still be drafting 19th (+/- 2 spots). The 2 WC teams would most likely be NYY and Cleveland/CWS.

I suppose every teams prospects would have improved with minor league ball being played.

Manoah, SWR, Kirk and Groshans would be knocking on the door for 2021 I will assume. Bo, Vlad and Tellez for sure would have got about 300+ ABs more if healthy. As well the army of young arms would have been able to establish what they were as ML pitchers. So they and our window has been set back about 1 year IMO.

I don't think Ryu gets us into the playoffs 2020. I am quite sure Ryu was signed to help us compete over 2020-23. Atkins stated how he believed the team would progress (maybe 2 years) to the point where they "expect" to win every day.

So like the Ryu signing this off season's target is high impact and controlled for 2-3 years.

Notwithstanding that we've already started the annual interviews from Atkins about how the team is going to be making huge splashes (really guys, we mean it this year:))- I just don't see it. The risk appetite from the FO has never really been there for much of that. On that basis, I just don't see the top few names being on the table. I also think that the offseason free agency plan should start from an assumed Biggio/Bichette double plan combo (unless, as Mike noted, Bichette was happy to move to 3B). Assuming we're in the mid-tier, I'd be pretty happy with something like a Gregorius (on a shorter term deal and to play 3B), JBJ and Walker, offseason. It would help balance the line-up and add some athleticism and OF defence.

Per Wilner, all 5 open 40 man spots are now filled.

Adds: Moreno, Adams, Palacios, Tice and Lopez.

Lopez seems the biggest surprise since he hasn't played above Low A.

Moreno, Adams, Lopez, Palacios and Tice added to 40 man

https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1329922584125825024/photo/1

I am glad they added Lopez. He was probably a low risk to be taken, but I think that he's got a decent chance to be a valuable player.

I was expecting 3 adds.

Lopez and Palacios were not really needing protection.

They will get one spot back when they non-tender Shaw.
They'll probably try to trade a guy or 2 to make more room.
McGuire possibly or even Adams.

Palacios and Tice are as ready for the Majors as they are going to be. They need to be used as a OF fill in and another arm in the pen. Palacios bats left and can easily provide more defense than Fisher.

I would have been very surprised if Palacios had not been added. Both Sclafani and Mense spoke extremely highly of his hitting in Rochester.

Lopez would be a high risk to be selected. He can play multiple positions and he has good bat control. He could easily be the 26th man on a roster.

With the 40 man full, the Jays will need to do something to make room for new signings. They could drop players, Shaw or Adams even, or with 5 catchers, they could trade a catcher.

It's true, Gerry. The larger roster makes it easier to carry a player like Lopez. When I saw him, he was very much a work in progress with the glove.

When I saw him, he was very much a work in progress with the glove.

Kinda describes about half our major league roster the past few years :(

All of the teams in the AL east have used up their 40 man roster protecting young prospects (and 1/2 the teams in baseball) - must be expecting an active rule 5 draft and it also makes for interesting times when these teams need to make room for FA additions - could preclude a bunch of non-tenders and trades to open up roster spots.

Based on what he showed in Vancouver, Lopez doesn’t really have a position but he can play 2B, SS, 3B and LF at a pinch. He’s actually one player whose highest utility might be as a super utility player.

too young for Ozzie Smith, but watching prime Andrelton highlights are the closest thing to that experience I can imagine.

I think peak Andrelton was even better than peak Ozzie, but purely as an aesthetic experience the Wizard was unsurpassed. It was like watching Baryshnikov play shortstop. Simmons merely demonstrated how perfectly the position could be played, if divinities got involved. He was like some immortal come down from Olympus for the sole purpose of playing shortstop better than any mere mortal.

I enjoy staring down the dWAR column for the likes of Smith, Simmons, Ripken... All the lip service paid to their defensive abilities was still insufficient to properly valuate their contributions. A penny saved has never been treated like a penny earned.

Simmons had a 5 dWAR season (3rd best in MLB history behind two guys from the early 1900s fielding cow pies with puffy clown gloves). Ozzie, had a 4.8 (5th best, at age 34!).

Simmons has seasons ranking 3rd, 5th, 15th.

Smith is first for career dWAR. Simmons is 14th.

Mark Belanger and Brooks Robinson are 2nd and 3rd all time. Imagine being an Oriole pitcher with those guys behind you. In 1973, the top Oriole defenders, all who won the Gold Glove, were Belanger 4 dWAR, Grich 4, Robinson 2.6, Blair 2.1. The starting rotation (including Doyle Alexander and Jesse Jefferson!) had a collective K9 rate of about 4.0. Just put the ball in play and let's see what happens. Different times.

NY Mets added no prospects to their 40 man roster. None seem good enough to be selected in the Rule 5 draft. They signed FA Sam McWilliams.

Lopez has never played above A ball. You'd have to pay him the minimum for a full year, then he'd be 23 and would still need at least a year to play AA/AAA. Doesn't seem worth the effort for a utility player.

In 2010, the Jays lost Brad Emaus to the Mets.
Emaus was 24, had a great showing in the AFL, but only had an OPS of .424 after 42 PAs in 14 games and was returned in April.

We'll see if there is any interest for older players like Smith.

two guys from the early 1900s fielding cow pies with puffy clown gloves

One of whom, Art Fletcher, I sort of knew about - he was the shortstop for McGraw's Giants in the 1910s. He got to play in the World Series four times (including the 1912 classic that I've done my best to make famous!) and the Giants lost each one.

The other guy, Terry Turner, is little more than a name to me. He was somewhat overshadowed by his double play partner, a fellow named Lajoie. BB-Ref thinks his 1906 season as the Cleveland shortstop is the most valuable defensive season by anyone. Ever. And maybe it was. A great defensive player would have had far more impact on the game as it was played at that time than it would have had at any other time in the game's history.

Fangraphs has a post up about likely tender and non-tender candidates. The author thinks that Travis Shaw is likely to be non-tendered and AJ Cole is on the fence, but suggests he is likely to be non-tendered in his comments.

I'd be surprised if they non-tendered Cole, since he had a fairly good year and is only projected to make around $1 million. I don't agree with that assessment.

I could see them non-tendering Shaw, particularly if they thought they could bring him back on a bit of a discount on the arbitration projection.

I am trying to figure out the value in protecting Lopez at this time.

1) He is only 5 months older than A Martin. But signed 3 months before his 18 birthday. Jays did not move him fast.

2) His hitting stats are V good. High Avg, OBP and V good BB/K ratio (strike zone control). Probably not young for his leagues. But not old either.

3) Biggio seems to be the smartest player on the Jays. Good base running etc... Maybe Lopez has that too. So that as a bench player at multiple positions he will not hurt you like mistake prone players do. Pinch running, base running and adequate defense.

4) With 3 options left he can move up the ladder in hitting and overall play.

The Jays FO likes to only say good things about all players. Good policy. But actions (DFA) speak volumes.

Shaw is gone. Hard to make meaningful moves and keep Shaw.
Cole should be safe. Waguespack, Reid-Foley, even Yamaguchi are more at risk in my book.
Fisher is at risk also.
They might also trade guys with some value to get something back.

The Jays reportedly have some interest in J.A.Happ. I was thinking that I wouldn't want another mediocre roation placeholder like Roark and Anderson, but looking at Happ's stats from last year it seemed he was fairly decent. Still, he's 37 and I would rather see more of an impact arm join the staff.

Vlad Jr. has reportedly, and pictures back it up, lost 20 pounds since the season ended, and 40 pounds since early in July. If he can keep it off ( and he wants to lose 10 more pounds) then he should be able to be more agile in the field next season. It's hard to bend over when you have a doughnut of fat around your middle.

Happ left the Yankees disgruntled. There's some value in that.

Lol, I'm glad you took it the right way. I knew Eephus referred to pitching somehow and when I looked up the definition, I couldn't resist making the joke.

It's broadcast rating time at Fangraphs. TV crews only, though. Guessing there will be fewer Pat rants this year.


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/crowdsourcing-mlb-broadcasters-part-1-the-east/

I like Buck Martinez much better as a color commentator and Dan Shulman is great as main guy. Can't say I miss Pat Tabler at all.

Slow off season so far. I wish Atkins had not said that he was after an impact player. I would have preferred to be surprised. Like with the Ryu signing.

As I see current impact players on the 40 man roster if healthy I have faith in Vlad, Gurriel, Bo, Biggio, Teoscar and Rowdy. They are all young enough to improve through experience. Jansen and Grichuk are solid but have not convinced me to see impact in them. Without a track record Kirk being impact is a wish. That is 9 players that can maybe be very good. Especially offensively, except for Jansen who provides a lot with his catching skills. Any of the above can have a good year or not. I am quite sure the FO values offense at the expense of defense. There seems to be significant evidence of that to me.

Ryu and Pearson are the only 2 impact pitchers so far on the 40 man roster. Pearson because of his potential. Having about 17 ML ready or close to ready pitchers is also a sort of impact possibility. They all provide some strengths but no consistency in being good. So mainly hope. And faith in the stick to the wall strategy.

I expect it to be slow.
We don't know what alternate rules will be in place in 2021.
We don't even know the names of the 120 minor league affiliates who will operate next year.

The NBA is set to start on December 22, about 2 months late with the playoffs ending at the end of July.
The NHL hasn't announced anything.

The last rumor for NHL I heard was a Canadian division and a few US divisions for next season (to deal with COVID). Good idea on their part. 7 team division in Canada, just a shame they haven't put a team in Quebec City yet to make it an even 8. With 32 teams that leaves 25 for the US divisions (including the new Seattle one). Three 6 team divisions and a 7 would be best I suspect for the US side. That would be messy for playoffs (5 divisions) but could do something like 3 teams per division plus the best non-playoff team to get to 16. It'll be a few years to get back to a normal schedule for the NHL & NBA thanks to their doing playoffs in the summer. MLB was lucky that way, the NFL super-lucky.

I see very few signings other than minor league deals until after the Dec 2 non-tender deadline.

I'd be happy to have Happ back. I agree that you don't want to sign him to a huge or long term package, but he is an above average pitcher, and pitching depth is a real thing.

Of course I'd rather have the best starter and best position player, but it isn't necessarily mutually exclusive, and we aren't that likely to get our #1 impact player and I don't think other useful pieces are likely to effect the chances of getting top players. Especially in roles like pitching where there is tons of depth. It is a different story if you sign a marginally above average DH-first player, but a starting pitcher (or even reliever) can easily add value without blocking anything critical.

I agree that we will probably see no action until after the non-tender period. There will likely be a significant amount of NT's this winter, which will add more options to the free agent pool at a cheaper cost. Not to mention Ha-Seong Kim is going to be posted some time after Thanksgiving, which should be right around the NT deadline, and he figures to be one of the bigger infield free agents.

[Chapman] led the league in sacrifices three times, averaging over 50 per 162 games.

Chapman still holds the single season record for most sacrifice hits in a season - he dropped down 67 sac bunts in 1917, a year when the average American League team had 216 sac hits. In 2019, the entire American League was barely able to beat that, with a total of 245 sac hits. For the entire league, all fifteen teams, in a slightly longer season.

Obviously, game done changed. One hundred years ago, it was more or less impossible to score a baserunner (and a batter) with a home run. So if you were lucky enough to get someone on base, you had to get the man into scoring position. This was not up for debate. You tried to steal the next base, or you bunted him along. It was automatic.

Would we do it the same way if home runs became equally impossible today?

Ken Rosenthal has lots of Blue Jay news in his Athletic column today. He claims the Jays offered Kevin Gausman $40M over 3 years but Gausman opted to take the qualifying offer.

He notes the Jays are talking to George springer, DJ LeMahieu, Michael Brantley and Justin Turner.

He also notes the Reds could trade Sonny Gray and the Astros could trade Carlos Correa, who, like Lindor, is a year from free agency.

I totally not like Correa.
He once had an argument with Osuna because he didn't get a fastball in a fastball count and grounded out.
He attacked Fiers for outing the cheating.
I did not like seeing him abuse his pitcher who was struggling to throw strikes in the playoffs.
I'd rather not have the clubhouse run like a street gang.

And yet, we should be seeing a lot more bunts made against the shift.
Granted, only the lefties can do that and most of our lefties seem to be power bats.
McGuire comes to mind, but do they even shift against him? I don't remember.

It's nice to hear the Jays don't care about losing a draft pick.
Gausman was always going to take the QO. That's 18.9M for 1 year.

Brantley has a long history with Shapiro, but there's no fit there outside of DH.
Turner would be nice at 3B for a couple of years.
Springer and LeMahieu are the 2 best fit, unless they're ready to trade Jansen and sign Realmuto.

The Rays are up to trading Kiermaier and Snell.
They also need cheap catching but at best you'd get some sort of reliever.

Teams will be asking for Martin and Groshans. I wouldn't deal those 2 for a 1 year rental.

AA got Morton for 1 year 15M. Great move.

"AA got Morton for 1 year 15M. Great move."

It's a good risk especially for a team that has the depth to take risky moves but Morton has huge risks. I mean, he's 38 and had declining numbers last year. He could bounce back but could also just be in steep decline which would be normal at his age. Also, clearly only a move that a few teams could make as Morton said he wanted to stay close to his home in Florida and claimed he would have retired had he not been able to.

The Jays interest in the Gausman continues their fondness for split finger fastballs.

AA seems to be on a hot streak with one year deals.- Josh Donaldson worked well (6 WAR for $23 mil) then Travis d'Arnaud last winter (2 years $16 mil had his best season last year).  Adeiny Hechavarria didn't work well (negative WAR), now Drew Smyly on a 1 year deal and Morton as well.  He is a very good GM and the Jays might have been well served to keep him but the current group is doing well so I'm not complaining.  Well, a bit.  :)   Just glad the ninja is out there doing his thing.

Cole Hamels was still a very big miss last season for AA.

According to Morosi, Ha-Seong Kim will be posted tomorrow and "#BlueJays are among the teams that have evaluated him closely prior to the posting process".

I think it's a little unfair to call the Hamels contract a miss, at least in so far as it suggests AA made a misevaluation.

The spring training didn't work out, but Hamels suffered a shoulder injury in spring training. There's not really anything AA could have done about that. Pitchers get injured. Hamels made 27 starts in 2019, and while he's had some injuries in the past, 2019 didn't portend that he'd be able to pitch 3 innings in 2020.

Concur with Thomas. It was a 1 yr deal, prorated to 60 games. Didn't work. He's gone.

Kim will be interesting to watch - I'm curious what he ends up with and who. I'm hoping he is for real and the Jays win out. A 3-5 WAR SS/3B who is entering his age 25 season would be sweet to get.

MLBTR now says we've also inquired on Realmuto.

IMHO, that would be a HUGE upgrade on our roster - solid defense AND offense. It seems too often we get one or the other, or neither (no hitting AND passed balls, etc). You need to be solid up the middle..
Add Springer, and I think we're a powerhouse..

The baseball media have identified the Mets and Jays as 2 teams likely to spend in this pandemic offseason, so those 2 teams will likely be linked with almost every significant Free Agent - much ado about nothing.

It really looks like the time for the Jays to spend.

The Rays are set to cut salaries, but they have some very interesting guys in their pipelines.
Incidentally, there is some domestic violence incident involving Arozarena in Mexico.

Nobody else has a farm system to match the Jays in the division.
The Yankees might be limited in how much money they can spend.
They could still do some interesting trades. Sanchez looks on the way out but might not have much trade value.
There are rumors about trading Voit. Torres has not looked good at short. There's no room for Andujar.

Every team in the division has a full roster, so there should be plenty of trades and non-tenders.

"Nobody else has a farm system to match the Jays in the division."

Except for Tampa, who is acknowledged as having the top farm in baseball. Ranked #1 by both FG and MLB Pipeline. Can't find any site that doesn't have Tampa #1. And Baltimore's is pretty close to even with the Jays.

For money I think the Jays have up to $70 million available for the right situation annually but would rather spend $30-$40 max this winter to keep room for next winter and mid-season. So 2 players at $20 mil each, or a $30 and a $10. Two $30 mil are possible but it'd have to be the exact right players and I don't think that exists (3B & ace for rotation). My choices are Bauer ($25 mil per to $35 per depending on number of years - IMO 3 years is ideal - FanGraphs projects $29 per 3 years), and Kim (MLB Trade Rumors projects 5 years $40 mil total ($8 mil per)). Kim as he is young and talented thus fits perfectly with the rest of the team and Bauer due to his being the #1 starter on the market.

J.T. Realmuto would be nice but expensive and the Jays have an acceptable option there already in Jansen. If they did sign him then I'd expect they have a trade involving Jansen in their pocket as well. FanGraphs projects $22 mil per, 5 years

George Springer is a popular choice around here - CF, great offense, good defense. But like Realmuto would require a trade almost immediately (one of our current OF). FanGraphs projects $22 mil per, 5 years.

DJ LeMahieu again popular around here it seems. Could fit in at 3B thus not requiring any moves other than telling Vlad his dream of 3B is dead which the Jays probably should do regardless. Signing him doesn't block other moves, but would make the budget tighter. FanGraphs projects $14 mil per year, 3 years.

Masahiro Tanaka I see as the top backup starter choice if the Jays lose out on Bauer. Reliable, eats innings, solid ERA year in year out. Ideal #2 guy. FanGraphs says $18 mil per 3 years. Also no draft pick cost.

Projections appear low to be honest. I'd add $5 mil per year to most of those estimates but there might be a COVID discount for teams that are willing to wait and take their #2 choice.

mlbtraderumors projects Bauers for 32M a year, 4 years.
Realmuto, 25M times 5 years.
LeMahieu, 17M times 4 years.
40M over 5 years for Kim, but plus an 8M posting fee tax.
They only give Tanaka 13M times 3 years.
They were predicting Morton for 8M.

The non tender deadline is December 2.

$8mil for Morton seems low. Maybe Atlanta overpaid at $15mil.

I think how slow the MLB free agent market moves makes it less exciting for fans. I am very much more in tune with the NBA with how exciting the last two weeks were.

I think how slow the MLB free agent market moves makes it less exciting for fans.

I agree. It would seem that salary caps play a role in the NBA and NHL free agency processes moving so quickly. In MLB, teams wait out players to get favourable deals and the players wait on other players to set the market. All kinds of gamesmanship at play for which there is little room in a salary cap world.

I agree that it's nice for fans that NBA rosters are basically fully reconstructed within a couple of days of free agency starting. Even any major trades, perhaps to involve the likes of Harden and Westbrook, may only take a little longer to happen, once the free agent dust has settled. Of course it also helps that the season starts in a month.

Neither the owners, nor the players and their agents care if it's exciting for fans or not.
Generally, fans are excited if their team spends and upset if it doesn't.
Most fans undervalue prospects and overvalue declining players.
I want a young exciting team, not a bunch of old excited fans.

In 2021, like in 2020, the minimum wage is schedule to go up only to match the cost of living.
This is calculated from October to October.
So, in 2021, the minimum wage is rising to $570500.00, a raise of $7k.

The minimum for a minor leaguer signing his first major league contract increases to $46900 and $93000 for a second major league contract.

Minor league salary, if there is a season, will be $290 to $400 weekly for rookie and short-season level, $290 to $500 in A ball, $350 to $600 in AA and $502 to 700 in AAA.

I don't know if I'd find that more exciting in the overall, though. The problem with the NHL/NBA free agent 'frenzy' is that it lasts a couple of days and that's basically it. The rest of the off season nothing much happens. In MLB the hot stove is all off season, and anything can happen, even big signings and trades, from now till February or even March. If MLB ever went to a hard cap then if would probably force everything to happen in the first couple of days of November. It would be exciting for those 48-72 hours or whatever but then.....

One more good move by AA in Atlanta, after Smyly and Morton would be good. After the non tender deadline a good reliever, closer or set up would be a great move.

AA has learned a lot since leaving the Jays.

The NBA frenzy, even in a normal year, typically lasts 1-2 weeks max. Then there would be nothing going on until training camp, which would be around 3 months. In this case, the draft, free agent frenzy, and eventually training camp will all happen within a couple of weeks of each other, so it seems a lot more exciting since there will be no dead time in between.

I don't think the MLB off-season needs to be that quick, but there does need to be more excitement. I mentioned before that I think what Trevor Bauer is doing is perfect. He's engaging with fans and allowing them to be part of the process, so his free agency is building up suspense and interest during the slow period. MLB doesn't have the young social media presence that the NBA has so it's hard to create that level of interest unless someone is out there putting out content on a regular basis, which is what Bauer is doing.

Either way, I don't think I'd be too excited if every MLB move happened in the first week of November, and then the rest of November plus Dec-Feb was tumbleweeds. There are pros and there are cons.

I think the Hot Stove is media driven. AA gave very good advice. Something like "if you hear about it then it probably will not happen".

A trade involving a notable name today - Jeff Hoffman traded by Colorado (with Case Williams) to the Reds for Robert Stephenson (and Jameson Hannah). Hoffman sucked in Colorado by any measure - 79 ERA+, his K/9 never reached 9 over a season, his BB/9 were 4.2 and never lower than 3.6. You can't succeed with those numbers. A shame as he looked really good when the Jays signed him. The next guy drafted was Michael Conforto (14.4 WAR in the OF for the Mets), Trea Turner also drafted not too long after. So a couple of guys who would've been useful but the Jays blew nearly $6 million on Hoffman and Max Pentecost with picks 9 & 11. Sigh. Only 3 guys after the Jays picks were 10+ WAR guys in round 1 - Turner, Conforto and Matt Chapman. A weak first round that year. Going through the first 6 rounds no one jumps out that year. Of course, many are still working their way into everyday roles at this point.

It does remind me that the Jays are still paying Tulo his last 4M in 2021 and that he's still only 36.
Sigh.

Also, the Royals have released Glenn Sparkman who was a Jays Rule 5 draftee in 2016/2017.

The highlight of his career is a complete game shutout against the White Sox.
Walker said that the Jays loved Sparman's arm as back then the Jays weren't flushed with high 90s throwers who could be used in relief.
Like man others, Sparkman never found his fastball command.

I think you are way off on Bauer and Semien.

I still wouldn't go after Semien because that money could be spent on actual needs. I also wouldn't go after Realmuto hard enough to get him. They need to hit where the upgrades are obvious: Bauer and Springer. Everyone else should be Plan B.

Bauer is immediately the #1 guy (I love Ryu, but Bauer is better), and Springer would free up Grichuk to move to right (unless someone is willing to give a bag of balls for him), then trade either Hernandez or Tellez. (Whoever gives the best return. I don't care which.)

I don't think they can do Bauer and Springer.
It's more like a stopgap here and an impact player there.

One of Bauer, Springer or Realmuto would be just fine.
LeMahieu won't cost as much and is harder to fit on the field, but would be just as impactful. 

Guerrero is working really hard and has lost a lot of weight.

Lots of waiver claims lately due to rule 5 roster adjustments.

Funny - sometimes the threads that come up on the side are good education on the past - the old Lincecum or Cain for Rios trade showed up again from the winter of 07/08. IIRC it blew up because SF had cooler heads prevail and say 'no' at the last minute. Rios from 08 on 14.3 WAR (5.9 in '08). Lincecum (who many here wanted) was Cy Young in 08 and 09 (17.6 WAR overall thanks to 4 really ugly years after 2011 just as he became very expensive). Cain who many thought was more stable (yup) 20.4 WAR peak of 6 in '09. In truth not the blowout I expected by WAR. Rios was better than I remembered and both of those pitchers had great peaks but also bowed out faster than expected. Cain was done at 32 and stopped being effect at 30, Lincecum fell apart at 28 after an insane peak and also was done at 32 (9.16 ERA for the Angels, Rangers blew $1 mil on him at 34 to see if there was anything left, there wasn't (5.68 ERA in AAA, 6.4 BB/9).

Cain and Lincecum are examples of players that can deteriorate and be a burden to their team's payroll. Tulo too. Signing players to long term expensive contracts is a potential danger. Donaldson had only 2 of 8 bad years 2013-2020. Minnesota giving him a 3 or 4 year contract from age 34 onwards was very risky. 2018 was a loss to the Jays but there were 3 elite/good years. So an overall win for the Jays. Only 1 year given by Atlanta was limiting risk very well. Minnesota needed an impact player now because they are in their contending window. So they were willing to take the risk.

I wonder if the Jays understand the above situation. Shapiro talked about Financial flexibility. Atkins about years of control. Excellent concepts. But EE was offered 4/$80mil to start payment in his age 34 season. EE, Donaldson. Tulo and Martin were all getting huge salaries to extend the window after 2016. Ryu 4/$80 mil for age 33-36. There is risk but Ryu opens the window to participate in the race to get into the playoffs 1-2 years early and go further into the playoffs. This results in better revenues.

I suspect most teams check contention windows and decide if a player will produce enough value in years 1 and 2 to justify 3 and 4's cost. IE: EE in his 4 years post-Toronto has a 120 OPS+ in 447 games good for a bWAR of 7.1 for $80 mil (if he had accepted the Jays offer). The Jays were at the tail end of a contention window with it closing fast so they would've put all the value into years 1 and 2 with 3 and 4 being write offs. 4.7 WAR those first 2 years - 9.0 the 2 before that. Given the Jays just made the playoffs in 2016 (3 games up, tied for WC) those 4 1/2 wins a year EE was worth would've been vital. But the 2.35 the next 2 years could've been replaced cheaper. Sadly they went for Morales who did 0.8 those 2 years (all in year 2) for $21 million then the Jays dumped him on Oakland while paying $10 mil more (to save $2 mil). So $31 million for 0.8 WAR - very poor choice, but EE would've cost $49 mil more and produced 6.3 WAR more which would've been a good deal, but useless or worse than uselss as he'd have helped 3 non-contending teams and hurt the contending one this year if the Jays didn't release him (70 OPS+ -0.5 WAR in 44 games vs Tellez 139 OPS+ 0.5 WAR - the Jays did have a 5 game margin in the end so it wouldn't have prevented them from reaching the playoffs but would've cost at least 1 win.

So there is the challenge. Ryu worked out this year as no way the Jays make it without him (imagine instead of Ryu every 5th day having one of the many others going and another bullpen day instead). Whoever they sign they need to have be good for 4-5 years (the time Vlad/Biggio/Bo will be here for sure) thus why I'm not too excited about Springer (nice as he'd be) or LeMahieu. Both are likely to be drags at the end of 4 years and both will want 4 years or more. Thus why I'm on the Ha-Seong Kim train (entering age 25 season and a potential all-star based on Korea stats and has been alternating between SS and 3B the past 3 years).

Not really. If they sign guys instead of trading for them, they'll still have prospects who could take over if players get injured or decline.

The worse year for me was 2014. Many players rebounded but they had no rotation, no depth and no payroll flexibility.
I don't think LeMahieu will be a drag, but they have 3 or 4 infielders who will be able to replace him by 2023, if needed.
You can trade a guy, eat up half his salary and replace him with a guy making the minimum. It's more dicey in the outfield as there is little depth, but they can still find a 4th outfielder who can play defense.

I see Kim as a higher risk. He could struggle and be untradeable.
The Korean league is a lot like AA.

Scottt - agreed but sometimes high risk = high reward. 4th outfielder for defense is here already in Jonathan Davis (4.6 UZR/150 career over 275 innings, has sucked in LF but just 57 innings so I put that down as SSS). Now for Kim I'd hesitate to go above $50 for 5 years even if the scouts raved about him due to the risk (as you say Korea is basically AA) but if he is a solid SS (as he appears to be) and has the arm for 3B (again, appears to be the case) then you'd get a solid defensive player at the least, worst case a John McDonald type. Worth about $2 mil a year, not $10 mil but not a total drag like an EE with an OPS+ of 70 would be for example. Also, while you can trade bad contracts you normally have to eat a big chunk of it or take an equally bad one back and those are getting rarer in the majors now as teams get more risk adverse.

Are teams getting more risk adverse or risk averse?

Globe and Mail story about new stadium seems to be behind a paywall. Some details on 680 news: https://www.680news.com/2020/11/27/rogers-plans-to-demolish-the-rogers-centre-build-new-ballpark-in-its-place/

This explains why the Rogers Centre renovation plans Shapiro was supposed to announce was delayed and became too big for his pay grade.

I hope public interest groups get organized and keep on top of this new stadium story - I'm all for a new stadium and development but I'm always skeptical - large corporations seem to always find a way to the public trough maybe by getting the prime lakefront land for a song.

There's also the question of the usual development charges for the condos.  The public interest definitely needs vigorous support inside and outside the halls of government.

Agreed 85bluejay and Mike Green - as soon as I read this story I worried the Jays would be cap in hand to the government (all 3 levels) like the Jays were in the 80's. Luckily the feds have a strong policy of no money for pro sports (killed a new arena in Thunder Bay - couldn't proceed without tons of federal cash that wasn't coming since it was to draw an AHL team - they claimed it was for the university team but everyone knew that was a load of BS and it'd house the Jets AHL team, then the Jets put that team in Winnipeg so the project finally died).

I'm 100% against government money for the Jays to have a new park. That is beyond what would be there for any other corporation (such as transit access). I expect it to go on Google's land and to have streetcar access improved, and to be near the relief line if it ever gets built. The dome to be demolished and become condos, which would be a significant tax base improvement for the city I suspect and we'll see some other juggling of stuff there. I fully expect indirect subsidies (ones that are hard to trace).

I guess it wouldn't be beyond Ford and Tory to find something to help build a new stadium.
However, the federal can't give anything to one team without having a dozen others begging for the same.

With all the building going on in Toronto right now, it would make sense.
Will supposedly be officially announced next year.

I'm all for real grass.

You may very well be right, John Northey.  Tory fought hard for the eastern part of the Gardiner to be repaired rather than demolished, and that would fit in with support for the Quayside Google stadium project.  More car access and less transit access to a new dome wouldn't exactly be fitting in with the net zero effort, would it?  I initially wrote "net zero drive" but thought the better of it. 

Eff that, Skydome is fine. Great even, a fine example of 80s architecture. Real grass would be nice, but I'm sure it's achievable without a new stadium.
This just reeks of building a stadium for the sake of building a stadium. Due to the recent building spree, Skydome is actually one of the older stadiums in MLB, which is perhaps what makes them want to "upgrade". I'm tired of governments contributing tax dollars to this kind of stuff (I know they're saying privately funded, but I'll believe that when I see it), and the downtown doesn't need another massive construction project.

I think the Mets could be the big spender this off season. Washington is also in the market because they should add big to extend their playoff window. The NLE is very competitive IMO.

Skydome is awful. Definitely a bottom-5 stadium in the league. I hate when teams like Atlanta or Texas build new stadiums but Skydome is the 7th or 8th oldest stadium in baseball and by the time a new Stadium would be approved and built, you're talking 35 years of use which I think is reasonable. That said, I am against public spending unless there is direct public benefit (i.e. governments put in money for new subway station which is needed anyway). I am leery though because everything that gets built in Toronto seems to be joyless and designed for private use. Something like the Mariners park would be great (still need a retractable roof) but we're more likely to get a Dundas Square level sort of building which will just be used to build more forgettable condos and a few overpriced restaurants.

Mike Wilner out of the Jays broadcasting. I don't listen to radio so don't know how he is game calling (which is obviously the biggest part of the job) but he was so clearly passionate about the Jays, obviously worked very hard to get where he got to, and was not afraid of evolving stats.

Great comments Glevin.
I'm all for a new stadium and development but I'm always skeptical - large corporations seem to always find a way to the public trough
For sure.  The Dome is hollow and soulless.  That said, I'll take it over a taxpayer funded example of corporate welfare. 

If Rogers is going to pay for it?  Awesome. 

Odds of Rogers paying for it outright?  zero. 

The Dome is hollow and has no soul? It may be hollow, but I invite everyone to consider that their definition of soul is not shared by folks who throw other ingredients into their definition of soul. If they tore the thing down tomorrow (they won't) 20 years from now the moaning will be "Why did the philistines destroy such a marvel of brutalism and later 20th-century grandiosity?"

Agreed with SkyDome is fine as is - grass a nice to have but hardly vital. The dome is fine, why build new? Fenway has been around since 1912 (opened as the Titanic sunk). Wrigley Field has been around since 1914. Both still are good today. Dodger Stadium 1962, Angels Stadium (whatever it is called) has been around since 1966 (with major renos) as has Oakland's garbage park. Royals since 1973 is beautiful. Then comes the Dome (1989). Those others are far older and work just fine. If I was a politician and Rogers came to me asking for 2 cents I'd tell them to screw off unless they have a plan that would work out to taxpayers advantage and not via the magic numbers teams make up each time they want a park. Tropicana Field is 1990 (no MLB until 1998) and should be replaced well before the dome is.

This is welcome news. The RC is an unpleasant ballpark to visit.

Tropicana field has no attendance. It's a different beast.
Miami built a stadium for the Marlins, which is not my problem.

The Yankees rebuilt their stadium.
The grass is not for the fans.
The grass is to keep players healthy and to entice free agents to play here.
Grass is good.

Condos? I don't know.
There must be a business case behind it.
Rogers doesn't throw money away unless it's for statues commemorating the ruling family.

Real grass in the Skydome is not achievable.
That won't change in the future either.

Is it? Over the past decade, I've re-visited RC three times and have done Camden and Yankee Stadium many times. I can see the Citco sign from my office. I prefer SkyDome to all three. I politely suggest that you frame your opinion as merely one person's opinion. I am aware that my opinion is one person's opinion.

I listed three non-retractable roof stadia. I've also visited the retractable roof stadia that exist in MLB. Do you know what puts them to shame? SkyDome.

Skydive does not put any stadium to shame imho, and I've been to more than 3 MLB parks. It was built as an entertainment facility not a baseball stadium. People should check their criticism of an as right now non existent thing (Rogers asking for public funding). As far as I'm concerned, we wouldn't have a baseball team in this city if Rogers didn't pony up to purchase, and no, there was nobody else willing to purchase the team from Interbrew.

"This just reeks of building a stadium for the sake of building a stadium. Due to the recent building spree, Skydome is actually one of the older stadiums in MLB, which is perhaps what makes them want to "upgrade". I'm tired of governments contributing tax dollars to this kind of stuff (I know they're saying privately funded, but I'll believe that when I see it), and the downtown doesn't need another massive construction project."

If you read the article it outlines how Rogers head Joe Natalie feels that Rogers is getting very little brand recognition from their ownership of Jays and want to leverage it more. They spend billions in cell towers every year and he feels they will get more out of Jays branding and profits in terms of investment returns. I don't know what planet people live in that they want to uproot their team just for the sake of doing it...

I guess unlike most of the recent posts, I am actually excited about this news. The political climate regarding public money going to fund private teams' stadiums in this country has changed, I don't see any danger of it and don't expect Rogers to even try. The Rogers Centre is not going to be saved by renovation, the cost of maintaining this facility is just going to keep increasing, and there's not much that can be done to improve the fan experience in the concrete dungeon.

The better long term solution would be to build a modern baseball only stadium with a retro look, potentially similar to other stadiums in MLB that Blue Jays fans have been drooling over. Maybe the plan would include paying for part of the Rail Deck Park and integrating the stadium with it, benefitting both the city and the baseball club. Of course that's the best case scenario, could very well end up with an ugly stadium with uglier condos...but I think the potential is there for this to reshape the space around it.

I guess you could call the Dome almost like two different stadiums. When it's open, it's OK. I've been to a lot of ballparks and it's still not as nice as the majority of them. I would still call it well below average now. When the roof is closed, it is just awful (better than only The Big O of all the stadiums I've been to). I've been to a lot of historic games at the stadium (first WS game, Carter walkoff, All-Star, etc..) so I understand the history, but objectively, it is not a nice stadium. The CN Tower is nice to have next door, but there isn't much of a view, the park has no interesting features, there is way too much concrete, it feels dark in an artificial way, there isn't a good baseball feeling the way more open stadiums have, etc...There are a couple of things the stadium would finish in the top half of the ones I've been 2. One, it's central and easy to get to. Not always the case. Second, it has a good walkup which is important.

If it happens and the timing is right for a well liked (masterpiece) stadium and just as importantly the Jays are contending in a window or some kind, then this will become some kind of important Toronto baseball history.

I have good memories of Exhibition Stadium. I was young then.

Glevin,

I think your point is a really good one. It is much more enjoyable to be at the park when it is open. It is like night and day.

I don’t remember needing a telescope to see the players at Oakland
Coliseum (though admittedly their first baseman spanned a generous field
of view). I guess I had fairly good seats the time I visited. My San
Francisco friend was keen to point out someone called Billy Beane
sitting a few rows ahead. (Who?) I bought a beer and it was…good, or at
least far exceeded my subterranean expectations. And, the ground had
real grass. That to me is the real difference from The Dome. At the
Oakland Coliseum I felt I was attending a ball game. At The Dome I’ve
always felt I was just attending a show.

Busch Stadium is #1 amongst ball parks that I have been too, and Fenway felt more like second place for me.

I think Skydome is 'fine' as is...not great, but fine. With the roof open on a summer day or evening it's all right. When it's closed without much of a crowd, it feels like a big empty concrete warehouse.

The location and retractable roof are the best things about it. If we get a new stadium I hope it's somehow in the same area and has a retractable roof. A better looking park with real grass would be great.

Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and San Francisco are all signicantly better than even an open Skydome. And Seattle even has a roof

I may be in a minority here but the idea of tearing down a 30 year old stadium and rebuilding another raises climate concerns for me. I would think that the useful life of a stadium is at least 50 years.

By the time this stadium is built, it's going to be another 10 years. So it's going to be more like 40 year old stadium being torn down. Waiting another 10 years, would likely close the door on having a baseball park in the heart of downtown Toronto as the remaining undeveloped land would have been built up in that time.

I agree - Oakland isn't that far removed from the field. The 3rd base side is horrendous for watching an afternoon due to the sun being right in your face.. Even on the 1st base side, it was hard to look towards the outfield at times.. I've been to approx 5 games in Oakland, maybe same in Skydome.. AT&T park seemed a bit nicer (had overhangs to provide more shade).

My memory of Exhibition stadium is my dad taking us in 1982 or 1983 and we got sunburned badly..

The worst sun stroke/sun burn I had was in the bleachers at AT&T park in SF. I agree it is a nice park though, and transit friendly. The nice thing about Oakland is the seats are cheap. Even the good seats aren't very expensive for Jays games there. And the bleachers can be super cheap.

Jays still talking with Springer.

They also added Garrett Richards to the list of considered pitchers.

G Richards would be a good depth piece. Same like Roark, Shoemaker and many others. A potential #3-#5 which is an ERA of 4.00 to 5+. He is strike thrower.

Atkins values depth. Quality depth means 5 veterans plus Pearson to start off the season. The young SPs can earn their way onto the rotation when injuries strike.

Most likely we are still contending by the trade deadline. If not pitching moves can be made with an eye to the future.

I had overlooked Garret Richards, and he would be a really nice pickup as the king of spin.

I imagine thought he would be a tough sign as a California guy. He was born and raised in Cali, drafted by the Angels and signed by the Padres.

The Dec meetings have always been a media frenzy. I am guessing that this year it will not be an in person affair. Therefore a new format of some kind.

Last year I remember Montoyo speaking to the press. Shaw was signed. Vlad was supposed to be the third baseman and the media just said flat out that Rowdy was the odd man out. Both Rowdy and Shaw were LHBs. Montoyo just said that he is a big believer in Rowdy. 2019 saw demotions to Teoscar, Gurriel and Rowdy to learn something. So 2020 may have needed more demotions for learning.

Dec 2 is non tender and Sunday Dec 6 would be travel day to the meetings and set up in the hotel. Then business on Dec 7th.

It's been known for a while that the December meetings will be virtual this year.
The Jays should non-tender Shaw and keep Cole.
Are there non-tender candidate who could interest them?
Probably, but the roster is already full.

In 2020, Dante Bichette got involved with the hitters and the chasing was cut down drastically.
There was some movements on the pitching side.
McGuire is the only guy who got a demotion.
He'll probably rebound because his numbers were horrific.
There will be a decision made at some point because 5 catchers on the 40 roster is at least one too many.

There's a report that the Phillies lost 145M in 2020.

Thanks scottt. I am looking forward to the meetings. Media hype etc...

I'll be curious if it is a loss of a $145 million, or just $145 million less than they projected to make (i.e., actually lost $70 million, expected to make $75 million). Because MLB has played that game with the financials around the pandemic a few times already, as have other pro sports leagues. Either way I don't really feel bad for them, just the rank and file employees they fire as a result. The franchise has increased in value by a huge amount and likely turns a huge profit every other year. Billionaires losing a bit of money - and $145 million is only a bit to a franchise worth north of $2 billion, less than 10% - golly shucks whatever will they do?

Speaking from personal experience, it's amazing what accountants can do - I will be skeptical of any financial pronouncement coming from teams unless they open their books to scrutiny which will never happen.

Rumor that Mike Minor is going to KC on a 2 year deal.

Here is something on the Atlanta Braves 3rd quarter financials, which are the most open of any team. There is also a link to their 2nd quarter financials within the article.

https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/braves-latest-financial-results-revenue-falls-48-in-third-quarter/5GWLRGUQK5EWBOJZI5HRAWX2AA/

When a team cries poor just remember Paul Beeston (in the early days before he knew to keep his mouth shut on certain things)... "I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss and get every national accounting firm to agree with me." (via Forbes)

Franchise value is like the stock market and earnings are the actual results.
The only bad thing about value going down is that it makes one vulnerable to a takeover, which doesn't apply here.
The value of the Blue Jays--as opposed to the value of Rogers Communications--is unclear because the stadium is not owned by the franchise and the broadcasting revenues are artificially low as it's Rogers paying Rogers for the rights to the games.

Losses are accounting measures of sales minus expenses.
It's pretty straight forward here. There are no acquisition cost. No goodwill. No bad debt.
Amortization are fair game, but with the Trump reduced taxes, anyone would have optimized their losses before 2018.
It's always possible to loss money on purpose by paying too much for something--like Trump outsourcing to his daughter who is actually a minority owner, but I doubt that's happening here.

145M lost over 30 home games without attendance.
Average Phillies attendance in 2019 was 33671.
That's $143.54 lost per missing fan in attendance.
The average ticket price was $36.04.
That works out to 36.4M over 30 games.
Hmm.  Short 108.4M. Parking? $20 per car. That's maybe another 6M, top.
Beer and food? 5$ per beer/hotdog. Maybe another 20M.

Extra costs? There was a summer camp. Some testing costs.
Gotta pay the lease over 30 games instead of 81.

Yeah. I should probably look at the Braves in more details.

There are many other ways to make baseball teams have losses. Like move the revenue producers to separate companies that pay an undermarket rate for that exclusive right. The most obvious is with broadcast rights. A team might sell their broadcast rights for $x to a related entity even when the open market value of them might be 10 times as much. But you can do the same thing with parking, consessions, ticket processing, etc. The flip side of this is paying too much to a related entity. Maybe you buy $y with of marketing from your parent company, which only puts a third of that to marketing for you, with much of the rest going to marketing other things owned by the parent company (lots of films have been accused of this to move profits away from blockbuster films that folks have points in to other films). Obviously there are many other things that can be done, and these are just some of the most obvious and best known, but financial numbers from teams are always questionable.

If the Jays sold their broadcast rights to another Rogers Media division for way below market, you would expect that division to show strong profitability. Of course, they don't; they operate on razor thin margins and they're constrained by a very weak Canadian advertising (relative to the American market).

Any undermarket deal that the Blue Jays might receive for the rights is never going to be more than $5-10m per year (if any, there are internal business incentives to accuately transfer price goods and services).

Occasionally in the past, an Anaylst Report from a capital markets group has gotten deep into the divisions at Rogers. It makes for interesing reading.

The individual divisions might show razor thin margins, but Rogers communications itself makes $2-2.5 billion a year with revenues reported around $14 billion.  Not exactly threading the needle profitability-wise. The Blue Jays aren't exactly nothing to the whole enterprise, but it's definitely a hard-to-pin-down kind of thing. Sort of advertising for rogers by their existence and presence, probably profitable in a normal year on its own, they aren't clamoring to sell.

I'm sure that the Sportsnet deal is on the lower side of acceptability, but it's not the scam many people make it out to be. Those rights payments are subject to revenue sharing. The 29 other owners aren't going to sit idly by if any team tries to game the system, because that's money out of those other owners' pockets (or less money into their pockets). That's why those so-called "audits" are done.

MLBTR is saying we have interest in Kolten Wong. Maybe for < $5M, if he can also play SS/3B to replace Panik / Espanal / Shaw? But I only see him listed at 2B, which would reduce the value of Biggio..
I don't really see a fit there.

In 2018, each team received $118 million from revenue sharing (which account for 48% of local revenues) and $91 million from national revenues. That's $209 million for each team, yet teams like Pittsburgh and Tampa don't spend anything near that on their payrolls. The difference is in the 52% of local revenues that aren't shared.

I would only be interested in Kolten Wong if he is willing and able to play multiple positions. We're seeing fewer and fewer teams use everyday players at 2B - just 5 qualified hitters at 2B in 2020 (7 in 2019, 12 in 2018). The ones who remain are almost always top-of-the-order, plus-hitters. Wong hit leadoff in 2020, but has spent the vast majority of his career hitting 7th or 8th in an NL lineup. And... "2B-only" guys often have short MLB careers. It's hard to remain on an MLB roster if you aren't starting and can only play one infield position. I see Wong as a huge risk on anything more than a one-year deal.

Wong is only valuable at 2B where he is a gold glover. His 94 OPS+ plays nicely there or at SS (which he has never played in the majors). His defense is worth a win or two while his bat keeps him above water. He'd be more valuable if he was a 1-3 win defensive player at 3B so Biggio didn't have to move. Biggio being able to move is why the Jays would be looking at Wong.

It is funny how many 2B the Jays seem to be chasing based on the rumor mill in Wong and LeMahieu. 3B is the obvious hole as I doubt anyone seriously sees Vlad going back there full time no matter how much he wants to.

If Vlad gets his wish then the Jays are using projected Steamer (FanGraphs) RC+ for 2021 (2020 in brackets)
1B: Tellez 110 (136)
2B: Biggio 105 (127)
3B: Vlad 137 (115)
SS: Bo 112 (125)
LF: Gurriel 107 (138)
CF: Grichuk 101 (112)
RF: Hernandez 102 (146)
CA: Jansen 96 (89) & Kirk 116 (169) & McGuire 72 (-54)
DH: mix and match
UT: Espinal 80 (76)
OF: Davis 80 (123)

Free Agents 2B...
Wong: 94 (92)
LeMathieu: 110 (177)

Free Agents 3B...
Ha-seong Kim: 93 (141) (projection via Depth Charts)
Justin Turner: 124 (140)

Potential SS...
Francisco Lindor 118 (110)

Lots of options to look at there. Turner the best on offense of all the options, but also the least likely to sign anywhere but where he was in 2020. Kim the lowest projection but also the most variability due to being in Korea. If LeMathieu is happy going to 3B then he'd probably be the best choice for a win now situation assuming Turner isn't going to leave LA. Lindor would be sweet but super-expensive in every respect. However, looking at the Jays lineup there isn't exactly a lot of weakness if Vlad can play 3B. If a 2B is signed then Biggio probably goes super-utility (ala Tony Phillips with Detroit in the 90's) playing at 2B/3B/RF/CF/DH to give guys a day off at DH. Then Davis & Espinal are good bench guys who'd get into games rarely and often as pinch runners. Oh, btw, George Springer is 126 (146) so if you can move Hernandez to DH that would work very well. Realmuto is 'only' at 104 (125) so not as big an upgrade as one would hope for what he'd cost.

Position player depth will be a factor. If Bo pulls a hamstring, back issue for someone, a strain here or there by another.

I did not hear a lot of bad remarks about Biggios defense in any of the positions he played. Not elite defense for sure.

If Bo misses 5 weeks then Espinal plays SS with pretty good defense and a big drop off in offense. Gurriel may be tried at SS. A little scary.

I don't expect Martin or Groshans to be ready for 2021.

Kirk is DH/C. I would like him to do some work at 2B. Maybe he can do ok with the use of the shift. R Adams C/1B and a corner OF spot. But he needs to concentrate on his hitting without being distracted. My guess is that Kirk's hitting will not be affected by him playing 2B. There is the too much on your plate factor.

Biggio was an average defender at second and bad everywhere else. Just not terribly bad.
Wong is more my idea of a super utility guy. He has a plus arm and he is a plus defender.
However, as a gold glover, he might prefer to stick at second.

LeMahieu is 6'4" and can play first.
Wong is 5'7".

Same with Gurriel.
At 6'4", he's 4 inches taller than his brother who plays first base.

The 60 games of 2021 don't weight heavy in the projections.
That's no reason to expect guys who have taken a step forward to regress automatically.

The QO was worth $18.9 mil I believe. Morton has recieved the highest contract at $15 mil. Most likely only the remaining FAs with QOs attached will beat the QO offering.

The 1st to sign among them will probably set the market. The good FA pool is very low on numbers. Someone will make a big offer for Lynn because they are desperate.

For now, it's the other way around.
It seems you can go get anyone outside the top guys if you're willing to overpay a bit.

As ranked by MLBtraderumours.

.44 Drew Smyly Braves for 1/11M was predicted at 1/5M.
.40 Mike Minor Royals for 2/18M plus a 13M option with a 1M buyout, was project for 1/6M
.36 Robbie Ray Blue Jays for 1/8M was projected for 1/6M
.33 Charlie Morton Braves for 1/15M was projected for 1/8M
.28 Trevor May Mets for 2/?? was projected for 2/14M
.9 Kevin Gausman took the QO.
.6 Stroman took the QO

 

Yeah scottt - at this point the 'COVID discount' seems about as fake as the expected post 1994/5 strike discount which cost the Jays Roberto Alomar (Ash said in an interview that he expected the market to go down thus waited rather than trying to sign him early). In the 1995/6 offseason Griffey Jr set a record with an $8.5 mil per year contract (seems cheap now). So much for saving money by waiting. Alomar signed a few weeks earlier for 3 years $18 million (if the Jays had done that they'd have had him for 95/6/7 thus for the first year of Roger Clemens being here).

I suspect the Jays have tried hard to sign a big gun from this winters class but the players are being smart and waiting it out a bit. The top few will get very nice deals and if they are patient they might get a few million more than expected.

Thanks scottt. That is a nice list with expected salary by one source. But very wrong. So they probably have admitted their error and done a recalculation most likely double their original estimate.

This is free market I think.

Vlad will play winter ball for Escogido in the DR. He is expected to play 3b.

Wong is a good player, but I don't see the appeal from the Jays standpoint. He can only play (a really good) 2B, so if he were to be an everyday player, then that means permanently moving Biggio to a position where he probably won't be as good defensively (3B). That type of positional swap would be more understandable if they signed LeMathieu, not Wong.

Regardless, it was a Morosi rumor, so hard to put any kind of weight on it.

Wong has a better arm and is a better fielder than  Biggio.
He's probably just as fast.
Biggio is the guy who can only play 2B.
The Jays values flexibility. If Wong is willing to play all over, he could be interesting.
Wong is predicted to go for 2/16M.
Also, unlike Biggio, Wong has some splits and could be rested against lefties.
The Rays have done really well using platoons.

Not double. Not by any means.
May went for 2/15M instead of 2/14M.

Morton was well worth 1/15M.
The thought was he'd go for a discount to play near his home.

The guys at the top might very well get less than predicted.
Realmuto is out to get more AAV than any catcher. Might not get that.

The Vancouver C's were rumoured to become an affiliate of the A's.
Now it seems the A's will instead grab the Lansing Lugnuts as their Advanced A team and Vancouver might be staying with the Jays as their High A team.  Or something like that.

Various reports that the talks are heating up with Springer.

Toronto's bench coach, Dave Hudgens was Houston's hitting coach in 2015-2017.
That includes the cheating scandal for which he apologized.

There's an interesting article at Sportsnet.ca on Adam Kloffenstein's season in the so-called Covid League in Texas last summer. As a 19 year old who had never played in full season ball, he gained some valuable experience playing against older players. Apparently he can dial it up tp 99 mph on his fastball, 97 mph on his sinker, and he's trying to slow down his slider and changeup which are clocking 90 mph. He might be another good one in the Jays stable of power pitchers.

Springer is more interesting the more I look at him - His projected 126 wRC+ would be the 2nd worst of his career. That is the low end for 2021 I'd say. Putting that in CF would be nice. ZIPS has him worth 4.3 WAR and 3.7 the next 2 years. 8 WAR is worth $72+ million so any deal for $100 million or less (3+ years) should be a good deal for the Jays. Projection is $125 for 5 years via MLBTR. At that you'd be needing $25 mil of value in the final 2 years which isn't unreasonable (3 WAR roughly). His defense is a mixed bag - in CF -4.0 UZR/150 last year, +12.4 in 2019, -4.5 in 2018, 3.8 in 2017. 1.8 overall. Grichuk is negative his last 3 years in CF (-11.8 in 2020), -3.0 overall vs a +4.3 in RF (didn't play there at all in 2020). Hernández in RF is a -8.2 overall (-9.2 last year) - killer arm but that is all he has. Strangely Hernández had a good 2020 in CF (55 innings) with a +17.7 vs career -9.9.

So a Springer signing would improve outfield defense in 2 spots if Hernandez is moved to DH or even LF (-6.2 lifetime there). I expect one of our current 3 OF'ers to be traded for pitching or infield help should they sign Springer. I doubt Gurriel goes to 3B although stranger things have happened (never played that in the majors, big negatives on defense at both SS and 2B while a +1.4 in LF - I'd either keep him in LF or trade him).

As Springer would fill the leadership role, you can move Grichuk to a team where he can play RF.

Maile signed a major contract with the Brewers.
He spent this year on the Pirate's IL with a broken right index finger.

Shaw and Cole non tendered.

Surprised about Cole.

Hopefully a case of "Cole was OK, but we can do better"