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5 more years. He signed on through 2025.

Not a lot of details, but a tweet by Ben Nicholson-Smith states it. "Rogers, which also owns Sportsnet, first hired Shapiro late in 2015. Another five year deal would run through 2025."

Good move imo. Can't complain about it. The Jays have done well these past 5 years. Moving from a division title, their first playoff appearance in decades, to a wild card, to 3 years of rebuild, to a playoff slot again. With a deep farm things look good for the future, with minimal payroll limits going forward (Ryu, Grichuk, and Gurriel the only contracts beyond 2021). I can't see what anyone would have to complain about really. There are minor issues here and there but nothing major that jumps out at me. Opinions?
Shapiro extended | 239 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 10:37 AM EST (#393275) #
I guess it's a tweet from Edward Rogers. "Shapiro's leadership and commitment over the last five years have been critical to the team's growth and development."

scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 10:40 AM EST (#393276) #
From Shapiro "Living in Toronto and Canada has been life changing for me and my family and I am excited to experience the feeling of winning a championship with this city and country."
PeterG - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 10:44 AM EST (#393277) #
Good move.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 11:46 AM EST (#393278) #
Good move I'd say. Shapiro seems to have a vision for the team with rebuilding of the facilities in Dunedin. emphasis on player development, good drafting and a strong farm system. True success will come when the major league team wins a lot more than it loses and does well in the playoffs.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 01:11 PM EST (#393279) #
One day Shapiro and company will have to choose 1) Sign a Bauer/G Cole. 2) Trade for a Clevenger/Snell.

For #1 they may or may not want to commit the payroll that much. For #2 the prospect capital will be huge so they need a very powerful farm OR they suffer a possible rebuild.

Our current rebuild is a severe one. Lucky we had the young talent GGBB+ from acquired drafts to plug in fast and just let them quickly adjust to the ML started in 2019 IMO. The elite pitching is Pearson (2020) and Manoa, SWR, Kloss starting in 2022 IMO.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 01:39 PM EST (#393280) #
2016 .549 w% / .560 pythag%
2017 .469 w% / .444 pythag%
2018 .451 w% / .427 pythag%
2019 .414 w% / .440 pythag%
2020 .533 w% / .485 pythag% --> only 60 games

A lot of narrative riding on those 60gms.

Are there expanded playoffs again this year?
grjas - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 01:45 PM EST (#393281) #
Best young team we’ve had in 30+ years, built very quickly. No brainer to extend him.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:04 PM EST (#393282) #
The 2020 team @.533 was an 86 win team for a full 162 games. I don't even know what went right.

We only played ALE and NLE teams.

Only 1 SP was good (Ryu). I think the pen would have been worn out if 162 games.

The extra playoff spots were a crucial bonus and the trade deadline deals were impressive.

So 2020 playoff spot fell into our laps.

For 2021 without the extra playoff spots we may be sellers at the deadline. We have reliever contracts expiring Yamaguchi, Dolis and Cole. Also SPs Roark and Ray.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:23 PM EST (#393283) #
"Young" Team

SP Ryu 34
SP Ray 29
SP Roark 34
SP Stripling 31
SP Pearson 24
SP Borucki 27
SP Thornton 27

RP Romano 28
RP Dolis 33
RP Cole 29
RP Yamaguchi 33
RP Hatch 26
RP Kay 26
RP Merryweather 29
RP Waguesback 27
RP Zeuch 25

3B Guerrero 22
SS Bichette 23
2B Biggio 26
LF Gurriel 27
RF Hernandez 28
CF Grichuk 29
C Jansen 26
1B Tellez 26
DH Kirk 22

C McGuire 26
IF Espinal 26
OF Fisher 27
OF Davis 29
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:25 PM EST (#393284) #
In 2020, the Blue Jays were 12th in batting average, 13th in OBP, 11th in OPS, 7th in run scored 8th in HR and 9th in stolen bases. Drury is gone, they just need to do more than replace the production of Travis Shaw, Caleb Joseph, Joe Panik and Villar.

The rotation was 17th in ERA, 25th in WHIP, 24th in BB/9, 12th in K/9, 24th in H/9 and 24th in HR/9.
Shouldn't be too hard to improve on that. I'm pretty sure they need another starter.

The pen was 24th in ERA, 23th in WHIP, 26th in BB/9, 21th in K/9, 21th in H/9 and 11th in HR/9.
That one is a bit misleading because the rotation was so bad that the pen had to throw so many innings.
Still, they surely need to add an arm to the back end.

The can plug all those holes by giving large contract to key players. Would a 3rd year to Turner do it? 5 for Springer?
Add a dependable reliever and a starting pitcher with some upside.
Ryu gets 20M per year. Grichuk 10M. Roark is due another 12M. Ray is costing 8M. Gurriel and Yamaguchi a little over 3M each. Only Stripling and Hernandez are eligible for arbitration.
The team is in a great place. Fangraphs has Pearson, Martin, SWR, Groshans, Kirk and Martinez in their top 100.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:33 PM EST (#393285) #
Well deserved.  I think that the drafting over the last 5 years is going to end up working out very well, and the challenge is to convert the various pieces of talent into a club ready to win.  Sometimes this hurdle is too much, as it was for Gord Ash in his time here. 
John Northey - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:49 PM EST (#393286) #
Batters age for 2020 25.9. Same as in 2019. Only lower ages were 1980 and 1981 which lead to the great 1983-1993 teams. I'd say that is a great sign.

Of course, this is the 6th oldest pitching staff ever at 29.5 years old, which is a negative (matches 1993 - the final year of the first great era of Jays baseball).

Pitchers who were over 30 that are no longer here unless the Jays choose to resign in some cases - Shoemaker, Anderson, Bass, Font, Gaviglio, Moran. That will help drop the age a bit. I expect more innings going towards 25 and under guys like Pearson, Perez, Reid-Foley. Plus other prospects in the minors coming up. Guys like Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, Adam Kloffenstein, Eric Pardinho, Anthony Castro, and others. Lets hope the Jays can mix in as many kids as possible into the rotation and pen in 2021. Aging will be via 2 new guys added (ideally an infielder - 3B and starter)
bpoz - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 03:20 PM EST (#393287) #
The playoff structure for 1983/84 was very hard. The 4 man rotation had Stieb, Clancy and maybe Doyle Alexander and was healthy. Joey Mac and the others did not anchor the pen. They were not overworked either.

I don't know when McGriff arrived. I would like to know the number of ABs for T Fernandez, Bell, Mosby and Barfield to see how much ML experience they had. I know that Mosby hit .230 for a few years at the beginning.

85bluejay - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 03:37 PM EST (#393288) #
A tough day for our friend uglyone, my sympathies - and more bad news, I'm predicting that when this 2nd 5 year contract ends, Shapiro will receive a 3rd 5 year extension.
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 03:54 PM EST (#393289) #
Age of pitchers is not necessary an issue.
Lots of pitchers take a long time to figure it out.
Borucki, Thornton are still trying to figure it out at 27. Merryweather at 29.
Injury can happen at any age.
There is a loss of velocity at some point.
Ryu will turn 34 during the season. His best pitch hovers at 85 mph.
Roark is already 34. I don't know that they're banking on him.
Dolis just hit 33 and Yamaguchi will hit that in 6 months.
I expect them to bring some "older" pitchers to round up the staff.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 04:14 PM EST (#393290) #
1983 was the year I first really started to pay attention to baseball so I remember that team fairly well. McGriff wasn't here until '86 (briefly) full time in 1987 (was at Exhibition Stadium for his first home run - barely cleared the LF fence as I recall). The rotation was Stieb/Clancy/Leal (his career ended fast in 85)/Jim Gott/assorted (Alexander once he arrived). The pen was a mess though - looking at BR I see 5 guys getting saves with ERA+'s between 94 and 115 so nothing 'wow', lots of wildness. Might explain the 43 complete games. That winter the Jays blew a lot getting Dennis Lamp in to close, that didn't work, then traded away their starters at SS and LF for Bill Caudill (a solid closer at the time). I remember the talk of moving Stieb to the closer slot as it was so bad. What is funny is Gott later was a very good closer for Pittsburgh with 34 saves in 1988. As most know the solution came from a free agent compensation pick named Tom Henke from Texas (teams could protect 25 guys from that - so they basically lost Cliff Johnson for half a season to get Henke - dang good).

Given Shapiro will be here for 10 years as president the Jays will have had just 4 so far I think. Peter Hardy, Beeston (twice, pre and post Godfrey), Paul Godfrey, and Shapiro.
Magpie - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 06:57 PM EST (#393291) #
Some news. Bauxite Emeritus Mike Moffat, who I believe introduced all of us to the concept of cuttlefish as rewards, reports that he's tested positive for COVID. Says he's feeling OK. A little run-down but "I had just assumed it’s because I don’t sleep, have a diet that is 95% coffee and am unfamiliar with the concept of a vegetable."

Get well, Mike.
John Northey - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 07:06 PM EST (#393292) #
Yikes! Knew at some point someone here would get it given how many cases there are but still yikes. If reading here Mike we are all thinking of you and hoping you are one of the lucky ones who has minimal issues with it.

On a Jays related note, I don't think he is related to Randy Moffitt, the closer of those 1983 Jays (sorry, couldn't resist as I was just looking them up earlier so his name was on my mind). Nor am I related to the 2 Northey's who played in the majors (a father/son combo Ron & Scott) for that matter. Odd last names make one check.
johnny was - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 07:33 PM EST (#393293) #
OK. Now that that negotiation is out of the way, please go find a player, preferably a good one, and extend him.
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 08:24 PM EST (#393294) #
It appears the Mets don't expect to extend Lindor.
Some reporter say the Mets front office view the trade as a success even if it's only for one year of Lindor.
Maybe they figure there is going to be several great shortstops available next year so there is no  point in overpaying for Lindor now.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 11:56 PM EST (#393295) #
I hope this works out for the organization. I don’t feel qualified to say whether Shapiro has done a good job overall, but there seem to be some promising signs (the new spring training complex, some good moves in rebuilding the farm system, some underrated moves in bolstering the major-league roster). It remains to be seen whether he can maintain this momentum and goodwill and take the team and organization to the next level (and keep it there).
Thomas - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 05:38 AM EST (#393296) #
Get well soon, Mike. It sounds like he's not experiencing it as hard as some people I know have been, which is good news.

I'm happy with the extension. I have more mixed thoughts on Atkins (to the extent they can be divorced from each other), but I've been more impressed with his recent moves, which is promising.

With regards to the extension, I've always thought having Shapiro as the President was a good appointment. The bigger moves, such as the aforementioned revamp of the Dunedin facilities and last year's adventure in Buffalo, seem to have been handled quite well.
Gerry - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 07:26 AM EST (#393297) #
Good luck Mike. London has become a bot of a hot spot recently.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 09:25 AM EST (#393299) #
Get well soon, Mike.

bpoz - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 09:41 AM EST (#393300) #
Shapiro has a lot of experience and possibly understanding about his job. I believe his father was also a long time baseball executive.

Mistakes are always made eg Morales signing, draft picks Warmoth, Woodman & possibly G Conine. We have also had a few good picks Bo, Biggio.

Something I did not like was discarding scouts and development personnel. B Cherrington was brought in and poached. There have been 3 scouting directors in the 5 years he has been here. So Shapiro has had his share of success here.

Cherrington is young and Shapiro is older. Shapiro/Atkins rebuild started at the 2018 trade deadline. Cherrington's rebuild in Pittsburg is immediate. Both had to eliminate some payroll contracts.

Cherrington has to succeed in the NLC which is different from the ALE.
scottt - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 09:58 AM EST (#393301) #
Get well Mike. The second week was worse for me.

I'm not sure EE was a mistake.
There were no deep relationship between EE and the new front office and he wanted a premium to stay.
Gurriel might have be tied to signing Morales, maybe Pearson slips through if EE signs.
Woodman turned out OK, for Toronto anyway.  Not every pick turns out well and we don't know the end story.
The local scouts and the scouting director surely play a part.
Overall, the drafting has been much better than under AA.
It's too early to compare the International signings as those guys are signed so young.

John Northey - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 10:02 AM EST (#393302) #
Cherrington's first year was ugly - 19-41, 5th in a division where every other team made the expanded playoffs. He has a middle of the road farm to start (15th rank in 2019 before he joined, 16th right now so no real change). Average age in the majors of 27.1 hitters, 27.8 pitchers in 2020. So he has his work cut out for him. But it is the NL Central so odds are those other 4 teams will not be spending a lot which makes it a lot easier vs Yankees/Boston unlimited, Rays super-smart, O's - OK, every division needs its weakling.
Glevin - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 11:17 AM EST (#393303) #
The extension makes sense. The Jays are in a healthiest place they've been in IMO for about 30 years (good major league team, lots of good young talent, very good system, no contracts that will hold team back, etc...). It feels like the start of a sustainable contender. There are areas to improve. I think the trades have been OK on average but my main quibble is giving up quality prospects for mediocre major leaguers which they've done a few times and I don't think is necessary. But good drafting, some deft trading, good IFA signing, and maybe most importantly took considerable heat for rightly moving on from the 2015 core (should have done it earlier even).
grjas - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 11:19 AM EST (#393304) #
"It appears the Mets don't expect to extend Lindor."
That makes me even more comfortable that we lost out on the trade. I don't think shifting Bichette off his natural position for one year of Lindor makes sense at this point. The Jays aren't one player away from a championship.  On the other hand, trading for a year or two of a good third basemen could work as a bridge to one of the youngsters.
bpoz - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 12:15 PM EST (#393305) #
The NL seems to be trading for top AL talent. Snell & Lindor.

At this date in the off season I see NYY, CWS and Minnesota in a comfortable playoff contending position. Based on this, it leaves the Jays as a solid WC contender in a large field. LAA on the other hand can get a WC or 1st place.

I see LAA as a nice trading partner for the Jays at the trade deadline or next off season. LAA is desperate for good pitching and the Jays are not desperate for anything IMO.

uglyone - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 02:27 PM EST (#393306) #
"A tough day for our friend uglyone, my sympathies - and more bad news, I'm predicting that when this 2nd 5 year contract ends, Shapiro will receive a 3rd 5 year extension."

no doubt.

He is the perfect Rogers' executive. Everything they ever dreamed of.
bpoz - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 06:34 PM EST (#393307) #
Int'l signing starts tomorrow.
Glevin - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 08:16 PM EST (#393308) #
Manuel Beltre is confirmed for Jays. He has played in the US a ton so lots of scouting and data on him if you google it.
jgadfly - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:18 AM EST (#393309) #
Manuel Beltre ... 7minutes of Academy Baseball video blurb ... Scouts also love his makeup, baseball IQ and dedication to the sport. He’s been praised for his work ethic and his game play abilities.
damos - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:28 AM EST (#393310) #
Morosi tweeting that LeMathieu is finalizing an agreement w/ the Yanks. Deal could be complete today.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:02 AM EST (#393311) #
Hand to Mets...

Bad news as it likely means Springer to Mets next with the savings (vs a Hendricks signing).
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:18 AM EST (#393312) #
Well, good news of these transactions (if they happen) is the market is finally moving. I'm hoping the Jays pushed the Yankees to pay more in years and dollars then they planned (4/$80) by a lot. I am hoping at least 5/$100. Anything to screw up the Yankees budget :) Hand seems a lost opportunity but we'll see as others have mentioned he saw a loss of velocity the past 2 years but still was effective. Of course, that was in just 22 innings in the AL Central (probably the easiest place to pad stats last year - vs the equally weak NL Central only all season).

Maybe we'll get lucky and see Springer make up his mind this week, then Bauer. I have felt for awhile it'd be LeMahieu, Springer, Bauer, Realmuto for the big 4 in order of signing. First 2 alternating depending on rumors of the day.

Of note: international signing begins today so expect a flurry of international free agents signing (ala Vlad a few years back). The Jays are part of the biggest group with $5,348,100 to spend. 6 teams have a cap of $6,431,000, while Atlanta has just $1,572,700. The Yankees have the 2nd least to spend at just $4,232,700. Jays are expected to sign Manuel Beltre, SS, Dominican Republic for $2.6 mil (ranked #24). #2 Oscar Colas, LHP/OF, Cuba is not tied to a team at the moment. While #1 Yoelqui Céspedes, OF, Cuba is expected to sign with the White Sox for $2.05. I'd say that #1 guy has a poor agent if he really signs for that amount while guys far further down the list get more. #7 is expected to get $4 mil for example (Pedro Leon, OF, Cuba – Astros) while #4/5/6 all expected to get $3 mil each.
Glevin - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:25 AM EST (#393313) #
"Bad news as it likely means Springer to Mets next with the savings (vs a Hendricks signing)."

I don't think so. I think it means it's unlikely they sign Springer. They've already spent a lot this off-season adding about $60M to their payroll. They also have a ton of FA after the year. Lindor, Conforto, Syndergaard, Familia, and Stroman are all FA and I am sure the Mets will want to re-sign at least a couple of them. They still have Cano and DeGrom taking up about $60M a year for the next 2 years.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:47 AM EST (#393314) #
Glevin, it's fair to see it that way also. One thing to keep in mind though is apparently the NYM and TBJ have offers still out to Springer for $100+ million. And! The NYM are willing, apparently to trade players away to make room.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:01 AM EST (#393315) #
They've been looking to trade Matz who makes over 5M. He was terrible last year and he's a free agent in the fall.
Hand will probably push their payroll over 190M.

bpoz - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:05 AM EST (#393316) #
I can understand LAD doing little or nothing. Boston & LAA are too quiet. Of course Preller and Dombrowski seem to be active a lot. Their style.
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:18 AM EST (#393317) #
Did we just give $2.6m to the 24th best international 16yr old?
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:20 AM EST (#393318) #
Forget springer.

Expect something more like Kluber on a "value" deal.
mathesond - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:26 AM EST (#393319) #
I didn't give him squat.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:32 AM EST (#393320) #
At this point I don't see much happening for they Jays that will please us. We want to sign a premier free agent or trade for very good players or get some good players on great contracts. Those are the wants. Sign Bauer or Realmuto, trade for Castillo or Bryant or sign guys like Semien and Kluber...
I think we need to start acknowledging that the players in the first category who have a choice just don't want to play in Toronto. Even if the Jays over pay they may prefer NY or LA. As an example, reports are surfacing that Lemahieu is taking 90 million over 6 years! to help the Yankees stay under the luxury cap. That's crazy.
Bauer will probably go to Chicago, New York, Los Angeles or Boston. The narrative has been "Jays need to over pay for elite talent to come here in free agency." Maybe that's not true. Maybe Ryu came here not only because we overpaid but because we were his only real option at 4 years due to his mid 30s age and heavy build. Maybe it was only the Jays 4 year offer or the Dodgers at 2 or 3 reduced years. Springer, Realmuto and Bauer I'm sure will have more offers to choose from and maybe the Jays can't overpay enough to sway them.
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:35 AM EST (#393321) #
Apparently the LeMahieu contract is 6/90.  It looks to me like the Yankees are getting better than market value. 
Gerry - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:37 AM EST (#393322) #
From Twitter....

Source: Dodgers offered LeMahieu 4/60. Blue jays offered him 4/78. Braves were interested. Mets were too.

Also being told he was very close to going to Toronto
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:45 AM EST (#393323) #
so close again.

Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:51 AM EST (#393324) #
The consensus projections for LeMahieu next year are roughly .290/.350/.445 and just over 3 WAR.  In Yankee Stadium, I'll take the over on the projections, as I think he is particularly well suited to the park. 

There isn't a whole lot of difference between 4/78 and 6/90. LeMahieu will probably be in a part-time role in years 5 and 6 of the contract and $6 million isn't too far from what his value might be. 
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:53 AM EST (#393325) #
Interesting deal. $15 per year on the Yankees budget, but he is signed through age 37 and few would expect him to be solid through that age. Odds are the Yankees will be paying $15 mil for a backup in years 5 & 6. Seems a lot like what you see in the NBA where a player gives up years or money in order to allow the team to have cap space.

Interesting that yet again the Jays are 2nd best - 3rd time isn't it? Kim, Lindor, and now LeMahieu. At least they are close - last year they were 2nd on Cole but got Ryu for far, far less which worked well. Wonder how this winters near misses will work out in the end?

Of note: Liam Hendriks' deal is done now - $39 mil over 3 years plus $15 mil option for the 4th year or $15 mil buyout which would be deferred over 10 years. So unless he really sucks over the next 3 years or gets injured badly that option will be picked up. But this puts more cap usage in the early years (first 3 years based on $54 mil) thus opening space in the 4th year if needed. Creative.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:58 AM EST (#393326) #
"Did we just give $2.6m to the 24th best international 16yr old?"

Beltre is considered the most advanced hitter of the class, according to mlbtraderumors latest.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:02 AM EST (#393327) #
So, if reports from this board are accurate, then Lemahieu used not only Toronto but Los Angeles to get the NYY to up their offer. Yankees essentially matched the $15M/year the Dodgers offered, but told Lemahieu they needed to spread it out of 6 years for luxury tax purposes and it worked.

If Mets were interested then they probably have more money for Springer.

Turner now will fit in at LA and Bauer is the big wild card.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:03 AM EST (#393328) #
The 24th draft pick got 3M. 

Beltre might be the most advanced hitter in this year’s class.

He has sure hands with good range and a quick transfer. He has plus-arm potential that suits him well at both shortstop and second base, where he has a chance to be an above-average defender.

Scouts also love his makeup, baseball IQ and dedication to the sport. He’s been praised for his work ethic and his game play abilities. He is an average runner.

Yoelqui Cespedes is 23. That's a tad old.

Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:07 AM EST (#393329) #
The Yankees had two edges over others in the competition for LeMahieu's services: the park and also not having to give up a pick. 
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:12 AM EST (#393330) #
6/90 seems so weird. Less per year than expected and a longer term than expected
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:13 AM EST (#393331) #
The way I would conceptualize LeMahieu's contract is something like: 26M, 22M, 17M, 13M, 6M, 6M. 
ISLAND BOY - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:19 AM EST (#393332) #
So now that Lemahieu has gone back to the Yankees, the Jays must have a plan B in mind. How will the infield shake down now? I really can't see Vlad, much as he wants to, playing third all season.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:26 AM EST (#393333) #
Springer is more expensive. 
The idea is the same, the Mets could go 6 or 7 years on Springer to make him fit, but at this point, they'd be in tax territory.
That leaves the Yankees with only 15M to fill the rotation.

Springer 6/150M is doable.
Let's just push Hand a bit higher.

Glevin - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:26 AM EST (#393334) #
"So now that Lemahieu has gone back to the Yankees, the Jays must have a plan B in mind. How will the infield shake down now? I really can't see Vlad, much as he wants to, playing third all season."

Ideally, the Jays would get someone for one year. I think one of Groshans or Martin is probably close to majors by end of year and hopefully ready to start next year. Someone like Todd Frazier, Brad Miller, or Maikel Franco might make sense for a year. I think a Kris Bryant trade also makes a lot of sense as long as cost isn't too high.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:28 AM EST (#393335) #
They don't lose a pick but they don't get one either. It evens out.
It's not like Bautista, whom nobody was going to lose a pick over. 

uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:26 PM EST (#393336) #

Mark Shapiro said this last month re. #BlueJays moves:

“That could come in the form of four very good players. It can come in the form of two elite players, but we’re going to get better.”

Jays have many needs. Some options now closing off. Still many ways they can improve.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 15, 2021
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:39 PM EST (#393337) #
4/80 was my max for LeMahieu, so if the Jays offered 4/78 then I'm ok with that - I think unless the Jays significantly overbid (5/110), LeMahieu was not coming here - 2 of La Stella/Profar/Wong/Lamb to play the infield/backup would be ok for me - also Bryant if the price is reasonable - I'd like to know if Valera Breyvic will be available.
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:42 PM EST (#393338) #
I hope the Jays FO don't panic and significantly overpay for someone.
electric carrot - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:49 PM EST (#393339) #
I feel the opposite: I hope the FO panics and overpays for someone.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:52 PM EST (#393340) #
Two potential arbitration cases are dealt with...
Teoscar Hernandez: $4.325 mil for 2021
Ross Stripling: $3 mil for 2021

No real shock there. It is Hernandez' first year of arbitration so he wasn't going to get a crazy amount. I figure most players will want to settle as lord knows what will happen in a hearing with such a bizarre year as 2020 to base 2021's salary on.
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:05 PM EST (#393341) #
Agreed, carrot.

The fear of an overpay seems pretty bizarre to me. Our payroll is very low. Our owners are very rich.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:11 PM EST (#393342) #
They’ve backed themselves into a Springer or bust scenario.
damos - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:14 PM EST (#393344) #
I'm just hoping that plugged in writers that cover the Mets are right. Guys like Dicomo & Martino keep saying the Mets won't exceed the luxury tax this year...that they want to keep 5-10 million set aside for in season improvements. They've got an awful lot to consider - are they extending Lindor? What are they going to do with home grown talent like Conforto? Then there's Thor & Stroman....Cano's big money comes back on the books next year. Are they going to win the bidding for Brad Hand? Lindor could be their face of the franchise if they lock him up, so are they going to dole out another massive contract when they've got so many other roster questions? Guess we'll soon see.
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:39 PM EST (#393345) #
Last year, an injury prone 34 y.o Josh Donaldson coming off 1 bounce-back year, got 4/92 from the Twins - LeMahieu, younger, less injury-prone and coming off 2 terrific years gets less - Kudos to the Yankees.
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:41 PM EST (#393346) #
I hope the Mets land Springer @ 6/150.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:59 PM EST (#393347) #
I also hope the front office "panics" and signs Realmuto or Bauer. No matter who they sign or trade for, I don't think this team has much chance going to the series without significant additions to the pitching.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 02:21 PM EST (#393348) #
I don't think LeMahieu was leaving the Yankees period, whether it was to go to Toronto or anywhere else.

The FO has already proven they will overpay to get a FA (Ryu). No other team was offering more than 3 years for him. It comes down to the level of risk they are willing to absorb. If the Jays are going to overpay for a free agent on a long-term deal (5+ years), then the player with the best chance to still be productive from 2023-25 (what should be the peak of the Jays contending window with this group) would be ideal. Out of the top remaining FA's, I'd lean towards Bauer using that criteria, but all of them present a risk to some extent. Springer shifting to RF in a year or two would mitigate some of his risk.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 02:57 PM EST (#393349) #
The question becomes is it a good or bad risk in the end. Ryu at $20 mil per was a bargain as pitchers of his quality go for over $30 mil, but injury worries brought him down despite a 2nd place Cy place the year before and a sub 2 ERA the year before that. 3 years for $80 would've been a good deal without the injury fears otherwise.

So who is like that this year? Hrm... James Paxton might be (lots of injury worries, but not the same track record), Taijuan Walker I still like and shouldn't be that expensive. Right now for deal of the winter Realmuto might end up being that due to a lack of teams willing to spend money needing him. Of course, all that changes if one team decides to go nuts on someone.

And in the 'let the jokes begin' category - the Rays will be trying to allow 7,000 fans in for each home game at the start of the season. I guess the question is can they find 7k fans for each game - they had 4 games with fewer than 7k in 2019 (plus 2 in Miami with under 7k). Funny thing is they won all of those 6 games. Meanwhile they lost 2 of their 3 home games with 25k+ in 2019. (peak was opening day vs Houston 25,025).
greenfrog - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:33 PM EST (#393350) #
The only non-move I'm disappointed about so far this off-season is not signing Kim, especially if he was seriously interested in coming to Toronto. The Padres acquired him at a good price, in my view.

Realmuto or Springer at 5/125, or Bauer at 5/150, would be good additions. Probably each player will obtain a bit more than that, though.

DJL was likely not coming to Toronto unless the Jays paid a significant premium, 5/$100m or something along those lines.
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:41 PM EST (#393351) #
If the team is going to risk money, I'd rather they do it on players in the organization than the big name free agents.  Signing Bichette and/or Guerrero Jr. and/or Biggio for a year or two beyond their free agency- sure.  Pulling a Longoria with Austin Martin with some more dollars attached- I'm good with that. 

I have no confidence that any of the big-name free agents will be significantly better than average in a couple of years. Probably one will be, but damned if I know which one.
bpoz - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:48 PM EST (#393352) #
I agree completely with SK. This team could/should be strongest in 2023,24,25. Nobody is really old.

Grichuk & Ryu would be old. Vlad & Jansen/Kirk/etc... have had time to peak or fail to peak/reach potential expected. Pearson and others have had time to become really good pitchers if they are able to. Otherwise find a V Good FA starter or trade.

We should be in our window of being very good. This would be the time to spend $ and trade prospect capital IF we want to give ourselves the chance to win it all.

Or don't spend crazy money and keep the prospects to stay reasonably competitive longer. I don't know the plan.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:51 PM EST (#393353) #
"I have no confidence that any of the big-name free agents will be significantly better than average in a couple of years. Probably one will be, but damned if I know which one."

I feel this same way about Vlad, Biggio and Bichette.

At this point it rather the Jays get DJ or Bauer and stop giving money to guys like Grichuk, Yamaguchi, Roark and Stripling. Overpay for the right players, skip the mediocre ones to compensate for having to overpay for the stars.

scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 04:09 PM EST (#393354) #
The Yankees seem hard set on staying below the tax line.
The Dodgers only offered 4/60 so maybe they don't budge from their 2 years offer for Turner.

The Yankees never extend their player until they reach free agency.
Too soon to extend any player.
The player have to want the extension and that won't happen if the team can't sign any decent free agents.

Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 04:21 PM EST (#393355) #
I'll take Bo Bichette's 2026 season (his first free agency year) over any of the free agents 2023 seasons.  In a heartbeat. 
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:00 PM EST (#393356) #
What was the question?
Will the Jays have a prospect ready to take over shortstop in 2026?
Will Bichette be able to stay on the field over the next 5 years?

I haven't seen the Mets reaching agreement with Lindor, Conforto and Nimmo.
The ones they have signed have pushed their projected payroll up to 181M.

scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:13 PM EST (#393357) #
Borucki, Jansen, Thornton, Tellez and Guerrero are the Jays reaching arbitration next year.
Unlike Bichette and Biggio, Guerrero is a super-2, but he hasn't put up the number to take advantage of it yet.
That should be his motivation this year.
Pearson, also a super-two, will hit arbitration at the same time as Bichette, Biggio and Romano.

The Jays are really ways from carrying big contracts that would keep them from extending anyone they want.

ayjackson - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:22 PM EST (#393358) #
I think Heyman tweeted that the Jays had offered 4 x $19.5m for LeMahieu.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:55 PM EST (#393359) #
Extensions to existing young talent + going with more shorter term free agents/trade acquisitions would be a very reasonable way to go. Not the most exciting way, and would certainly annoy a lot of fans who have been waiting for a big move, but far more likely to pay off in the end. I wouldn't be against it. A lot depends on what the price for Springer, Bauer, etc, ends up being. It's possible whatever offer the Jays have out there, which Springer may have considered too low months ago, might turn out to be what he ends up taking in the end. I think the FO has a number/valuation and won't go above it, and this is the market where waiting it might work (more so with Springer/Realmuto, less likely with Bauer who should have more options).
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:16 PM EST (#393360) #
I agree with that, SK. I have no difficulty with a club in the Jays  position paying fair value for a free agent of the type available this year; it's the enthusiasm for overpaying for one that I don't agree with.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:32 PM EST (#393361) #

If you had to overpay market value for Bichette or let him walk, what would you do? I'm sensing you don't like the free agents better because of their age at the end of the contract.

Also, how proven is Bo, Vlad or Pearson, really? Do you not think there is possibility of decline/ceiling?

Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:42 PM EST (#393362) #
You are correct that they are not proven. Young players though on average improve and players over 30 on average decline.

I particularly like to bet on players aged 22-24 as the Rays did with Longoria. It doesn't always work out but often enough it works out spectacularly.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:47 PM EST (#393363) #
I'm thinking the Jays at this point are focusing more on short term guys, maybe Turner for 2-3 years as his dWAR is stable around 0 so he should be good at 3B for 2 or 3 more years (can't be worse on defense than Vlad even in 3 years). 2 years ideal but as we've seen in the past the Jays can trade guys before their contract runs out if need but would need to eat that 3rd year most likely. So the question is would he be worth $25 mil a year for 2 year or $50 over 3? I'd figure that is what it would take. I doubt it. Given the Dodgers reportedly offered a 2 year deal plus he is from that area I figure he will end up there in the end.

Kris Bryant via trade is very tempting - he agreed to $19.5 mil for 2021 and is a free agent after that. So a one year look and see then decide if they want to commit long term or not. Odds are they'd want low minors high upside talent as that is mostly what they got for Darvish. Which matches what the Jays have really. Big risk there but might be the best solution.

Evan Longoria in SF is very tempting if they want to save some money in that nuclear division (SD & LA nearly locks for playoff slots) - he is getting old but still is talented, around a 100 OPS+ and just over 0 dWAR each year. Plus has lots of playoff experience and AL East experience.

Of course, there is always Colorado who has Story (SS who is a free agent after 2021) and super expensive but super talented Nolan Arenado.

I'm sure there are lots of other options. Such as Semien do you move Bo to put him in place? Didi Gregorius is the same situation. Neither as valuable at 3B as at SS. Could bring back Eric Sogard and see if the magic he had here comes back. Todd Frazier would be a short term fix at best, Marwin Gonzalez had a horrid year with the bat but can play almost anywhere (something the club loves), Brock Holt was a decent hitter in 2018/9 but horrid last year, Maikel Franco is tempting as he played all 60 games last year with a 109 OPS+ and 0.0 dWAR at 3B (ie: not a liability with the glove) but the Royals cut him anyways (penny pinching).

So looking at those options I'd guess the Jays will keep chasing Turner but that will be a LeMahieu situation I'd bet (just driving up the price), trades are a crapshoot (Jays don't want to give up anything) so I'm thinking they might go for Franco (should be cheap, short term, decent) and blow a wad on someone else. Realmuto now has a decent offer from the Phillies (5 years $100 mil reports say) so he is probably off the list, leaving Springer and Bauer of the top free agents. Depending on how the Mets feel about their budget I'd put Springer as the most likely to come here, but no better than 50-50.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:50 PM EST (#393364) #
I think you're over simplifying everything. The biggest benefit to signing elite free agents to contracts that over pay them and involve declining years at the end is simple... it means you can build an elite team without giving up prospects like Groshans, Kirk, SWR and Manoah. If they Jays passed on someone like Bauer or DJ because the contract will look like an anchor in year 5 or 6, what do you think they will do next? They're going to turn around and trade Groans, Kirk and someone else for an elite player via trade. Probably with an anchor contract coming back as well (think Castillo/Moustakas).

I think the FO signs their young core long term in any case anyways...more reason to go get one of the top remaining free agents.
greenfrog - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:29 PM EST (#393365) #
One reason I was disappointed in the Jays not landing Kim is that the opportunity cost of adding players like him (and Gurriel Jr.) is so low. You get a young, talented player with a good track record at a reasonable price. No draft picks or IFA cap space need be given up. If the player doesn’t work out, and you have a reasonably large payroll (which the Jays ought to have), it’s not a big deal. You’re building a strong diversified portfolio of talent and having some of your investments not work out is a normal part of a winning strategy.

I would rather spend what it cost to acquire Kim than “shore up” the team with relatively high-cost, middling talents like Grichuk, Roark and Anderson.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:37 PM EST (#393366) #
Brian Cashman living up to his name once again...Kluber to Yankees (I had to re-type Kluber 6 times for my phone to not Auto correct).
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:39 PM EST (#393367) #
"I would rather spend what it cost to acquire Kim than “shore up” the team with relatively high-cost, middling talents like Grichuk, Roark and Anderson."

We already have Yamaguchi. Add Kim, and if he flops then those two become more of an expense than Grichuk, Roark and Anderson.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:48 PM EST (#393368) #
Kluber is done, that moves seems desperate for the Yanks.
Eephus - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:57 PM EST (#393369) #
Kluber is definitely a tantalizing gamble, but the odds of him finding a return to his stellar form seem about even (potentially much less) as him barely being able to pitch a dozen innings in 2021. Some guys make it back, some never do.

Of course it's the Yankees, so watch him make 30 starts and get Cy Young votes. It's better to be lucky than good, especially when gambling.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 08:12 PM EST (#393370) #
Well he's going to make $1,000,000 less than Roark this year...
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 08:42 PM EST (#393371) #
So $11 million for 1 year of a guy who is in his age 35 season, off a 2 year stretch where he threw 36 2/3 IP 3.9 BB/9 vs 9.6 K/9 86 ERA+. Yeah, he was all-world before that but for comparison, Roy Halladay at 35 had a 90 ERA+ after a 2nd place Cy year (preceded by a Cy award) and was done at 36. So I'd put the odds of this working well for the Yankees as quite low. Maybe they do a CC Sabathia thing - low innings per start, longer rest between starts, anything to try to let the arm recover. Might work but I wouldn't bet on it. The Yankees budget is now done for 2021 unless they make trades (assuming they are trying to stay under the Luxury Tax level).

If I was with the Jays I'd be calling Masahiro Tanaka's agent tonight and seeing if he can be convinced to come here now that it is clear he won't be back in NY. Of course, any team with $10+ mil available will be doing that too.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 08:59 PM EST (#393372) #
Tank has already stated it's NYY or bust for him. He will likely go to Japan, further driving up the market for Bauer.

Halladay ripped his back up while pitching in the playoffs, no hitters and perfect games. He should have gone on the DL but instead went on pain killers and pitched through it. It ultimately cut his career short and created an addiction. The injury during the playoffs that triggered everything else is well documented. He didn't randomly fall off a cliff.

Guys like Halladay and Tulowitzki are exceptions. For sure, there are declines, fast declines to players in their 30's and it's the norm, but these two "on pace for hall of fame" (at the time) players literally went from 100 to 0 in the span of a season and a half. Both suffered through major debilitating injuries. For Halladay it was his back and for Tulo his hips, legs then the nail in the coffin was the ankle.
johnny was - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:43 PM EST (#393373) #
If the poll at left had a "none of the above" option, I can think of two very important people in Bluejayland who would've ticked it.

dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:15 PM EST (#393374) #
Okay, updated prediction from me in light of the developments from the last week.

Springer goes to NYM via a longer term deal to keep the yearly salary below the luxury tax.

JT Realmuto goes to the Phillies

Toronto throws all its cash at Trevor Bauer

Toronto signs Tommy La Stella

Toronto trades Alejandro Kirk for Joe Musgrove or signs Jake Ororizzi

Toronto trades for Starting Marty
Thomas - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:56 PM EST (#393375) #

I had no idea this was Corbin Martin's nickname.

Thomas - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:57 PM EST (#393376) #
Toronto trades for Starting Marty

I had no idea this was Corbin Martin's nickname.

dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:04 PM EST (#393377) #
Lol. Auto correct. Whenever I'm posting from android mobile there are typos that are very difficult to correct. Sorry about that.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:16 PM EST (#393378) #
Halladay & Tulo exceptions? Not really. Lets look at some teams...
  • 1985 Jays: Outfield of the 80's were all done by age 33 season (Bell/Moseby/Barfield); also done by 35 most of the infield (Mulliniks, Garcia, Upshaw, Fernandez lasted a bit longer); hotshot kid Cecil Fielder (done at 34); pitching you had Stieb (done at 35, comeback at 40 for 50 IP); Key made it to 37; Clancy 35; Leal done at 28; Bill Caudill (closer at start of 85 - done at 30);
  • 1992 Jays: Olerud done at 36; Alomar done at 36 (last good year was 33, then negative WAR for 34-36); Manny Lee (1 PA at 30); Gruber (all star at 28, done at 31); Candy Maldonado (done at 34); Joe Carter (last good year was age 33, 34 was last positive WAR season, but hang on anyways due to RBI's); Derek Bell was the hotshot kid that year (done at 32); Ed Sprague also a hotshot (done at 33); Juan Guzman (done at 33 with just 1 game that year);
I think you get the idea. 2 of the best teams in Jays history and both stacked with All-Stars who didn't make it to their late 30's (or barely did and should've retired earlier). Blown out arms, odd injuries (Gruber was a neck one), etc. but that is the risk you take with players as they get older - more potential issues. It is guys like Dave Winfield & Nolan Ryan who make it to 40 who are the exception, not Tulo & Halladay who couldn't. I didn't include oddities like Tony Fernandez (one of my favorites) who had an amazing age 36/37 with his best 2 OPS+ seasons (late 90's so put an * beside them, negative defensive value too) then was off to Japan and only a PH after that. Ugh. Also of note: Shawn Green done at 34, Fred McGriff held on desperately to try to get to 500 HR but came up 7 shy (ouch), Delgado 27 short. There is no magic. Age gets these guys, no matter how much they try to avoid it. For every Rickey Henderson there are dozens of guys like Manny Lee. For every Nolan Ryan you get dozens if not hundreds who blow their arms out by their early 30's (Juan Guzman). It is a big risk to sign guys at 32. Any study on players at that age and beyond will show you a drastic decline after that. Those who survive do well, but that is survivor bias. Far more end than keep going.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:30 PM EST (#393379) #
Right now I'm not sure what the Jays will do. They will keep chasing big targets, but lord knows if they will get any. Hitting the tough stage of a rebuild - when you have decent parts everywhere and no 'we must' areas or it is very hard to fix those areas. Prospects close at 3B/CF/SP/RP which messes up plans sorta too - don't want to block the kids who might produce better than a vet for a much lower price. But also don't want to count on them. Wonder what other teams are offering Bauer - might help understand if he is possible or not. The Jays management team is very careful not to overextend themselves long term, or take risks that might look dumb in a year. I could see giving Springer or Bauer a year more than others are offering in order to cross that finish line like they did with Ryu last year. I'm kind of glad they didn't with LeMahieu as he seems a product of playing in NY which you don't want to spend on then regret. Kim I really wanted them to get, but understand their not wanting to guarantee a ML slot for him. Lindor would've been a fortune for 1 year of potential wow, rarely worth it.
subculture - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 02:02 AM EST (#393380) #
Completely agree, there is always a risk but in this case it was just cash and relatively small amount for a potential impact player. And IF the Jays had to overpay for him (though reports seemed to indicate otherwise), it would be a tiny amount compared to the overpay they will make IF they can sign Springer or Bauer.

I’m skeptical now they will be able to make that happen, but hope they can bring back Walker or Paxton, as both have a Toronto connection. Improved pitching will probably make a bigger difference than a position player anyways.
subculture - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 02:04 AM EST (#393381) #
Hmmn meant to indicate I was agreeing with Greenfrog with my comment.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 08:28 AM EST (#393382) #
I like the DJL and Kluber moves for the Yankees. The Yankees can ease Kluber along during the regular season and focus on keeping him healthy and building up strength. If he can regain his form to a significant degree, he could be a real asset during the stretch run and postseason. And the AAV isn't that onerous in the context of a one-year deal.
bpoz - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 08:46 AM EST (#393383) #
Well written history by John N. The outfield turf caused the extra wear and tear on the Jays OFs. Especially CF I think. Seems logical to me.

An extra CF like J Davis is probably needed to do some CF work. Springer may not last long in CF.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 09:01 AM EST (#393384) #

Look at player declines since 2010, not 1980s or 90s. Player health/training have come a long way. Why count McGriff and Ammar but not Incarnation, Donaldson, Batista?

The argument is going from all star level to physically unable to play baseball..."falling off a cliff," not a decline of let's say hitting .320 then next year.240 average. Big difference.
bpoz - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 09:06 AM EST (#393385) #
Walker Lockett released.
scottt - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 09:17 AM EST (#393386) #
A decent offseason for the Yanks.
Now, the Jays need to do better.

scottt - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 09:20 AM EST (#393387) #
After signing deals to avoid arbitration with Lindo, Nimmo and Comforto, the Mets projected payroll is up to 186M.
There's no room for Springer without a big luxury tax hit.

dalimon5 - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 09:33 AM EST (#393388) #
20.5 million/7 years would get it done or something similar to a Scherzer or Hendricks contract with some money deferred.

Mets have a lot of salary coming off the books in the next 2 years.
bpoz - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 10:33 AM EST (#393389) #
The Mets most likely know their plans for the the rest of this off season.

I think the luxury tax would be a factor. They may shed payroll but trading some contracts with some prospects. The youngest player on their 40 man roster is catcher Ali Sanchez born in 1997. S McWilliams & T Szapucki born in 1996. Also include prospects on their top 30 list. Rebuilding teams with money are the Cubs and Tigers.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 10:54 AM EST (#393390) #
Latest from Morosi has Springer going to the Jays only if the Mets sign Bradley Jr or another cheaper alternative instead. Springer prefers Mets over Jays and is waiting for their decision.

Regarding Bauer he says the Jays are the favourites unless he decides to go for higher annual average and shorter contract length from the Dodgers (leaves more overall money on the table).
bpoz - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 11:04 AM EST (#393391) #
LAD signed the #8 prospect C Jesus Galiz for $812,500. This is amazing IMO. Also our guy M Beltre is now accepting $2.35 mil instead of the original $2.6 mil. This could be like the brilliant Groshans/Kloffenstein signings from 2018.
scottt - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 11:09 AM EST (#393392) #
It sounds like the new owner wants to spend in a sustainable way.
Not spend crazy money like the Phillies and then cut back.
A good Mets team eats into the Yankees business, to a degree.

They don't have any bad contract coming off the book.
They'll probably have to spend more at short to get Lindor or another top free agent.
Then Cano comes back for 2 years at 24M.
Stroman is gone, but will have to be replaced.
Same for Syndergaard who is only making 10M.
McCann might be worth the money or not.
I wager he doesn't hit as well in this division.

The idea if for Springer to replace Conforto in right field.
There is no discount there.

They have no prospect of notes besides Mauricio who does reach until late 2023 or maybe Vientos a year earlier.
So, they might not want to make things worse with tax luxury penalties.

scottt - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 11:15 AM EST (#393393) #
MLB was predicting the Yankees as the favorite to sign Galiz.

If Springer has a better offer from the Mets than from the Jays why wouldn't he sign now?
It makes no sense to wait if the Mets sign somebody else unless they have already pulled their offer.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 11:20 AM EST (#393394) #
"Why count McGriff and Ammar but not Incarnation, Donaldson, Batista?"

So if Edwin came back to the Jays, would it be a re-Incarnation?
bpoz - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 11:28 AM EST (#393395) #
How accurate would the Springer alleged figures be? Mets 5/150 and Jays 5/115 is what I heard. If the Mets and Jays talked about these numbers among themselves would that be collusion?
bpoz - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 12:00 PM EST (#393396) #
Int'l signings are not clear cut so understanding the facts are hard.

1) Henderson Alvarez, IF too I think, went to a tryout camp in his neighborhood I assume. The Jay's prospect hunter said he is looking for pitchers. Alvarez immediately beckoned a catcher, threw and got signed for $40K. The catcher would have been a local kid. Childhood friends are very special I find.

2) A Kirk and Leo Jimenez are from Mexico and Panama so not DR or Venezuela. I consider them true FAs because of that.

3) There are very broad hints that our DR and Venezuela signings were discovered and invited to train at our facility from age 13/14.

4) I could be wrong but I am confident in my above 3 findings. Galiz has been training with Emiro Barboza in Venezuela since he was 10 years old. So how he went from NYY to LAD I don't know.
uglyone - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 12:14 PM EST (#393397) #
So if we had signed those FAs back then we would likely have:

- Donaldson signed for one more year, still projecting as an impact hitter at 3B
- price signed for this year and next year, projecting better than any of our SP other than Ryu
- EE's contract would have expired by now

Are we going to get better value than that on the FA market this offseason?
John Northey - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 12:15 PM EST (#393398) #
To be honest, I don't buy the Springer numbers. If he was really offered $150 from the Mets, $115 from the Jays, both 5 years and no others close then he'd be nuts not to sign with the Mets. Unless his agent thinks the Mets will bid against themselves like the Rangers did with A-Rod 20 years ago.

As to players mroe recent, sure lets look at 2015 (starters only via BR)...
Done at...
sub 30: Ben Revere, Hutchison, Sanchez (might be done already at 26)
31: Brett Cecil
33: Smoak (now in Japan)
35: Reyes, Estrada
36: Martin, Buehrle
37: Bautista, Encarnación (unless someone signs him)
38 and beyond: Dickey (made it to 42),
still going: Donaldson (still going at 35 but injury issues costing over half the season 2 of past 3 years), Kevin Pillar (still kicking at 31), Price (skipped 2020), Osuna (free agent but injured at 25 and resisting Tommy John surgery), Hendriks (signed mega deal at 31), Loup (free agent at 32), Goins (free agent at 32 but -68 OPS+ last year so might be done)

Obviously the story isn't done yet for that team (heck, still some sub 30s) but I think we can see very few went long. The big 2 kept going until they were negative WAR players, Martin I think wanted to play last year but no one would sign him, Reyes was an all-star once but by the end was horrid. Sanchez I wouldn't be at all surprised if he never gets back to the majors - someone will give him a AAA shot I'm sure but given how bad he was at the end before injuries he has a long route back as not many teams get excited about sub 8 K/9 with 4 BB/9. Now can one argue that some could've gone longer? Sure. But we are dealing what really happened, not what could've been. Betting big on guys over 30 is never a good strategy. I should put together a chart again showing how good an investment they are from day one of MLB someday again.
grjas - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 12:15 PM EST (#393399) #
The outfield turf caused the extra wear and tear on the Jays OFs. Especially CF I think.

This may be another factor weighing on Springer’s mind unless he figures this year’s contract is his last.
uglyone - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 12:30 PM EST (#393400) #
Let me try to get that more precisely.

Say we had signed

- Donaldson 5 x $30m in 2018
- Price 7 x $30m in 2016
- 1 of EE/Joey for 4 x $30m in 2017.

Right now we would have:

- Josh as 3B for 2 x $30m projected for 4.2war/650 this yr
- Price as #2SP for 2 x $30m projected for 2.7war/32 this yr

greenfrog - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 12:38 PM EST (#393401) #
I look forward to the year 2042, when everyone is finally bored of debating whether the Jays should have extended Price/EE/Donaldson after 2015.

I wonder if the willingness of some FAs to commit to Toronto is being affected by the uncertainty surrounding where Blue Jays baseball will be played over the next half-dozen seasons. First, because of the pandemic. Second, because the RC is a dated (and arguably dismal) stadium that can be hard on players' bodies. Third, because there may be a stadium teardown and rebuild at some point, but whether and when this will happen is unclear.
uglyone - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 12:50 PM EST (#393402) #
"whether the Jays should have extended Price/EE/Donaldson after 2015"

"I wonder if the willingness of some FAs to commit to Toronto is being affected"

Put these 2 sentences together and you might have something.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 01:11 PM EST (#393403) #
"If Springer has a better offer from the Mets than from the Jays why wouldn't he sign now?
It makes no sense to wait if the Mets sign somebody else unless they have already pulled their offer."
Nowhere lately is it said that the NYM have a larger offer out to Springer. The latest report has the Mets waiting on their next move, since their pursuit of Springer has cooled off after the Lindor trade. Springer is obviously waiting for the Mets to beat the Jays offer before accepting it. The reports of the Mets having a bigger offer on the table to Springer is from 2-3 weeks ago, before the Lindor trade. I believe that offer is no longer there or else yes, he would have signed with them by now.
I am learning that the quickest way to get long time posters out of their chair and to post on this board is to use a cell phone and make some auto correct spelling mistakes. Never disappoints to get the posters out. They can't resist making a brilliant play on words, likely because they don't understand the concept of auto correct or misaligned mobile systems not integrating nicely with a web site (volunteer) designed decades ago...That's funny to me.
scottt - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 04:05 PM EST (#393404) #
Who knows what Donaldson wanted in 2018.
They were not close on a deal before the year started and they were scared to give him a QO at the end.
He would have accepted a one year deal in Atlanta anyway and the Jays would have gotten nothing.

Price was and is way to expensive.
Maybe if had showed something during the playoffs.
He didn't and they made a run in 2017 without him.
EE wanted more money.

Right we would not have Gurriel, Pearson, Merryweather.
Donaldson only played 28 games last year.
Price missed a whole year in which his team won a World Series.
I'll take the under on those projections.

John Northey - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 04:25 PM EST (#393405) #
If after 2015 the Jays decided 'screw it' and signed 5+ year deals with their stars of that time (or 4+ year after 2016), Bautista, Encarnacion, Price, and Donaldson today only Price & Donaldson might provide value in 2021 - only Donaldson in 2020 (for about 1/2 of the season) while Price took the year off. Encarnacion would've blocked Tellez from getting any playing time in 2020, Bautista would either be blocking someone in the outfield or eating salary while sitting at home (Bautista at DH, EE at 1B or vice versa). No idea what the Jays would've done with Vlad if they had Donaldson & EE & Bautista eating playing time.

Of course, in those situations the Jays might have offloaded one or more of those guys while eating salary and we'd probably have a new GM/president in charge today while the Jays missed out on the expanded playoffs (losing your ace pre-season, your MVP candidate for 1/2 the season, DH having a 70 OPS+). Lots of ugly what if's there. Basically it is a 'what if JPR was still GM with Godfrey as president' type situation. I suspect AA, Gillick, and Ash all would've been very against locking in long term (all 3 avoided those deals, although AA did trade for them and traded them away). We'd probably have seen the farm traded away after 2016 in an effort to keep the team a contender, and further after 2017 in a series of desperate ugly moves.

Nah. Best to enjoy what we have. What if's can drive you nuts (a personal big one is that I wanted to invest $10k in Tesla in 2016 but let others talk me out of it - would be worth $174k today...ugh).
Thomas - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 07:27 PM EST (#393406) #
They can't resist making a brilliant play on words, likely because they don't understand the concept of auto correct or misaligned mobile systems not integrating nicely with a web site (volunteer) designed decades ago...That's funny to me.

If that was meant at me, I knew you meant Starling Marte and it was autocorrected. The autocorrect struck me as funny that it ended up with "Starting" with the Jays so eager, and in need of, starting pitcher. I didn't intend it to make fun of your posting skills or to discourage you from posting from a mobile phone. I apologize if it came off that way. I know the Box's posting software can cause issues and I've made more than my share of typos and autocorrects.

I do appreciate it being called a brilliant play on words though. :)

dalimon5 - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 09:07 PM EST (#393407) #
Thomas, not at all a targeted post, just a general comment. I am addicted to my phone and can't stand typos, but the correction system is brutal when posting via mobile. Anyways all good.
jgadfly - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 11:26 AM EST (#393408) #
International signings ... fairly diverse
Three at 16 yrs of age
three at 17 yrs
three at 18 yrs including 2 pitchers
one at 19 yrs of age ... Cuban pitcher Livan Chaviano
one at 22 yrs of age ... Cuban infielder Adriel Sotolongo

It will be interesting to see how many will be immediately introduced to the new training centre and how quickly they advance into Low A playing time with Dunedin ... perhaps even this season with the three pitchers (especially Chaviano at 19 with his background and upside)
Glevin - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 12:27 PM EST (#393409) #
Anyone have any info on any of the other prospects except Beltre? BA had him at #10 and he's a legit prospect (my guess would be somewhere 10-15 on our top list for now). I know they also signed a couple of older Cuban guys but don't know much about them.
ayjackson - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 01:17 PM EST (#393410) #
Rosenthal is suggesting the Jays sign Springer AND Brantley to seal the deal. Brantley is a close friend of George and they share an agent. Brantley wouldn't be the worse acquisition, but as a LH (mostly) DH, he may be a bit redundant.

If we do acquire Springer, I hope we can find away to trade Grichuk instead of Gurriel or Hernandez.
scottt - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 01:29 PM EST (#393411) #
Some are a bit older because this is really last July's signing which got delayed.

For the same reason, it's probably even harder to get recent info on any of these guys.

So, if the amateur draft is shortened, does that mean fewer international draftees or just that it's going to be harder for an international prospect to reach the US?

johnny was - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 01:57 PM EST (#393412) #
Uncertainty over whether the NL will have the DH has really suppressed Marcell Ozuna's market, but he's younger than Springer, is projected to hit just as well in 2021, and can be signed for considerably less. You'd burn his glove in a drum ceremony, obviously, but having Ozuna as the FT DH, moving Vlad back to third, finding a cheaper, short term defense-first CF option (if it's JBJ, so be it), then putting some resources into pitching upgrades would make for a pretty acceptable off season. The same idea, but with Nelson Cruz is also appealing. Let's just hope the team walks away with something!
John Northey - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 03:22 PM EST (#393413) #
Got curious about the 22 year old - Adriel Sotolongo. From his agent's website (so take with a grain of salt).

Cuban third baseman, Adriel Sotolongo (free agent) caused a buzz with mammoth home runs over the trees and beyond the parking lot in left field, estimated at 450 feet.
John Northey - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 03:40 PM EST (#393414) #
Livan Chaviano.... from a Spanish site translated by Google...

Liván Chaviano Ordaz's story could have ended badly. After three years stumbling around in the Dominican Republic, the Cuban prospect finally saw the light at the end of the tunnel by reaching a verbal agreement with Toronto that would become official in the coming months.

Now the Blue Jays could sign the right-hander before July 2 depending on how much money he has left to spend on international free agents, or he would sign after that date by the time he opens the new signing period. .

"This is one of the cases that gives us great satisfaction, because it is the perfect example of what can happen to a young man when he does not receive the proper guidance and help," said Yoan Pino, his coach and advisor. "For now, this story is having a happy ending."

But a few months ago it seemed destined for failure, because Chaviano, a legitimate prospect who had been part of that famous U-15 team that was proclaimed champion in Japan in 2016, came to live in very bad conditions, when those who attended him they left him to his fate.

Chaviano, currently 18 years old and a native of Havana, had been one of the pillars of that group that was also made up of Víctor Mesa Ríos (Marlins), Franny Cobos (Astros), Malcom Núñez (Cardenales), Osiel Rodríguez (Yankees) and Loidel Chapellí Jr., among others.

It was Sandy Gaston, another prospect signed with Tampa Bay, who asked Pino to help his compatriot. Chaviano, 6.3 feet tall and 190 pounds, had pitched Japan in the final of the event and earlier painted the United States white in another tournament in Panama.

"You won't regret it," Gastón told Pino and the coach set about rescuing Chaviano first and returning him to optimal sporting form.

"He lived in an apartment without electricity, without internet, in very poor condition," Pino recalled. “We did psychological work at the beginning and then we dedicated ourselves to recovering his skills on the field. Little by little we were observing the results and, suddenly, we saw the tremendous talent that he is ''.

Little by little, Chaviano regained his confidence in himself and then the ability to exceed 90 miles per hour, to run hard between the pads, to hit, because if he wanted to, he could also be useful with the wood in his hands.
PeterG - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 05:20 PM EST (#393415) #
Good work John.
John Northey - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 06:55 PM EST (#393416) #
Just a quick Google check - was very curious about the older IFA's - Adriel Sotolongo, a third baseman, looks like he might have the Vlad weight problem from that photo, but also the power if the story is right. At 22 he has to progress quickly through the system. I expect him to start in Dunedin then move quickly to Vancouver if he does well. AA next year with a spring invite in 2023 if all goes well so he could be in the majors at 24 potentially, 25 (2024) has to be the target though, if the power is there. With just 3 guys in the system having 50+ games (other than Vlad) at 3B in 2019 depth is pretty thin outside of Austin Martin (if put there but SS and CF appear more likely at this moment of time), Jordan Groshans (again, if put there as is likely).

Boy do I look forward to having minor league stats again this year. Frustrating for it to all be in a bubble that we cannot see.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 17 2021 @ 08:32 PM EST (#393417) #
The Jays were apparently an “aggressive bidder” for Kluber. Always a bridesmaid...
scottt - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 07:07 AM EST (#393418) #
Some teams were offering more money but with a team option attached.
Kluber wanted a clean 1 year pillow contract.
Once the Jays fix the remaining holes in the lineup, pitchers will find Toronto more attractive.
Tanaka wants 15M. I think he'll end up with the Angels but I could see the Jays bidding aggressively there as well.

Glevin - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:34 AM EST (#393419) #
Jays prospects in the BA top-100

14. Pearson
19. Martin
34. Groshans
69. SWR
70. Kirk
96. Orelvis Martinez

6 top-100 is amazing as is 2 top-20. The system is in the best shape it's been in for a very long time.
scottt - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:43 AM EST (#393420) #
Fangraphs has
24. Pearson
43. Martin
68. SWR
74. Groshans
86. Kirk
87. Martinez

scottt - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:51 AM EST (#393421) #
Walker Lockett released.

I guess that means nobody else claimed him on waivers.
Maybe the plan here was to try to sign in on a minor contract?
They just used some temporary 40 roster room to claim him.
He was never likely to make the team.
John Northey - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:54 AM EST (#393422) #
Depending on years, $15 mil for Tanaka would be A-OK imo. I could easily see going 3 years, maybe 4. He is entering his age 32 season and seems fairly durable so I don't see a massive risk.
Mike Green - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:57 AM EST (#393423) #
FWIW, subjectively I like Martin more than Pearson.  One of the things about the cancellation of the minor leagues last year is that it's harder for outsiders to make any kind of reasonable objective evaluation of last year's 1st round picks. 
John Northey - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 10:23 AM EST (#393424) #
Checking BR I see for prospects pre...
  • 2020: 3 each BA/MLB/BP (Pearson/Groshans/SWR/Manoah depending on list)
  • 2019: 7 (BA), 5 (MLB), 4 (BP) - Vlad #1 on all, Bo top 12 in all, rest #50 and down (Jansen/Pearson on all, Pardinho on 2, Groshans & Smith once each).
  • 2018: 4 (BA) or 3 (MLB/BP). Vlad top 4, Bo top 20, Alford on all, Pearson just on BA
  • 2017: 5 (BA), 4 (MLB), 2 (BP) - Vlad on 2 (not BP), Alford on all, Reid-Foley on all, singles for Urena, Tellez, Gurriel Jr.
  • 2016: 1 (BA/MLB) or 2 (BP) - Alford on all, Conner Greene #100 for BP.
  • 2015: 4 each - All: Norris, Sanchez, Pompey, Hoffman. Norris top 20 on 2 lists.
  • 2014: 2 (BA) or 3 (MLB/BP). Sanchez/Stroman on all, Osuna and Alberto Tirado on one each
  • 2013: 2 each, Sanchez on all, Stroman, Osuna, and Nolin once each.
  • 2012: 4 (BA/MLB) or 5 (BP). d'Arnaud (top 20 on 2), Gose, Marisnick on all, Syndergaard on 2 (90's), and Norris on one.
Gives an idea of it since AA started selling the farm after 2012. 2012 also is the first year they list 3 options ( started their lists in 2012 it seems).
Mike Green - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 11:10 AM EST (#393425) #
Alek Manoah is a very fine prospect to be out of the top 100.  It's true that he may have a tougher sled than many because of the timing of the pandemic disruption on his development. 
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 11:44 AM EST (#393426) #
Adam Kloffenstein could be ranked at some point, depending on his development.

I read an article where the writer contacted each MLB team's front office and asked them to name their most valued prospect that is never talked about. The one mentioned for the Jays was Leonardo Jimenez who is described as grading at 55 or more in everything except power.
Mike Green - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 12:19 PM EST (#393427) #
That was Jim Bowden.  I don't agree with him about quite a few things, but I agree about Jimenez. 
scottt - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 04:12 PM EST (#393428) #
I'm not sure what Tanaka's play is.
He could go back to Japan and get 4/40M easily, I'd think.
He doesn't seem to be looking for multiple years, just the one year contract and maybe back to New York when they start spending again.

I'd be fine with Tanaka on a one year deal.
However, they might prefer a guy who could be a mentor to the young pitchers, like Pearson.
Not sure who that is.

The Jays and the Mets are both after Hand.
If the Mets win, they're possibly out of money for Springer.
There are thoughts that Springer could be enticed by signing Brantley.
He's still an elite left bat, but he's a platoon DH.
That's kinda hard to work in unless we're talking about Guerrero being the regular 3B.
greenfrog - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 06:26 PM EST (#393429) #
SD has traded for Joe Musgrove. It will be interesting to see which prospects they gave up for him.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 06:38 PM EST (#393430) #
This is becoming a VERY interesting off season. SD has improved dramatically. Have we ever seen a team improve this much on paper in one off season? And this does not include the Clevinger trade from the late trade deadline...
I am also very interested to see what the haul is because it will tell us what the going rate for pitching is via trade and help us assess which is more painful (overpaying free agents ala Ryu) or trading for controllable pitching.
It is possible that signing B player placeholders until more kids arrive ends up being the best option, and delaying the contention years...futile as that may sound.
scottt - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 07:41 PM EST (#393431) #
Outfielder Hudson Head, Ranked 7th.
Lefty Omar Cruz, ranked 17th
Righties Bednar (ranked 20th) and Fellows (ranked outside their top 30).
Lefty starter Joey Lucchesi who goes to the Mets for Endy Rodriguez.

I see it as San Diego--who had a decade of losing to build their farm system--trading some surplus prospects.
It's a bit too early for the Jays to do something like this although, they really have to deal a catcher soon.

Curious to see how the Dodgers ultimately respond.
Do they sign somebody with upside at third base?

The Mets really don't want to depend on Matz.

Glevin - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 08:00 PM EST (#393432) #
Padres massively overpaid I think but they aren't worried about it. Musgrove is a good pitcher but they gave up a ton for him. If you think about #7 and #17 prospects (and nothing else) that's something like Manoah and Dasan Brown. Happily pass on that deal.
85bluejay - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 08:26 PM EST (#393433) #
I would point out that the Padres current #7 & #17 prospects were much lower on their prospects list about a month ago before the Padres dispatched a whack of prospects for Darvish & Snell. I will say the Pirates got quantity and maybe they hit on a couple,
scottt - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 08:59 PM EST (#393434) #
Good point. Before the Snell/Darvish, I think it would have been the 8th, 21st and 26th prospect.
Or something like that.

It seems that it would have taken a top 10 guy to get Musgrove, which is too much for my taste.
Musgrove was the main return for Cole to the Astros.
The Pirates have quickly traded themselves out of contention.

greenfrog - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:32 PM EST (#393435) #
Laura Armstrong reports that, according to Jon Morosi (who cites multiple sources), Springer will decide this week which offer to accept.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:40 PM EST (#393436) #
I love the trade for the Padres, Musgrove is about to explode.
Glevin - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:47 PM EST (#393437) #
Jays signed Chatwood who I guess is sort of like Stripling and can operate as a starter or reliever (hopefully more as a reliever).
BlueJayWay - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 09:51 PM EST (#393438) #
Davidi says he's expected to be in the pen. $3M guarantee with incentives that could push it to $5.5M
dalimon5 - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 10:52 PM EST (#393439) #
I don't get this signing unless they really don't plan on signing a starter and want to do the same thing as last year with guys like Anderson and Shoemaker. Or maybe they're planning to trade Pearson or others. I don't know which way this FO is going. Maybe they're planning to get 2 of the remaining top 3 and want to save dollars on relief pitchers and think they can jump the market by signing aa SP turned reliever rather than pay the trade price or high free agency price for RP. Use the saved dollars of a Hendricks or Colome signing on Bauer or Realmuto.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 11:12 PM EST (#393440) #
Chatwood has 96th percentile spin on his curve and fastball, that’s why they’re interested. He was serviceable as mostly a reliever in 2019, but this is a big meh for me. I’m looking for home runs this off-season not infield hits.
bpoz - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 11:16 PM EST (#393441) #
It could be that the Jays are the big FAs last choice unless all the other offers they are getting are insulting to them.

Le Mahieu was not offered a lot more by the Jays than he received.

I understand the Mets offered more than the Jays $115 mil.

The end result seems that the Jays are the 2nd best offer.
bpoz - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 11:28 PM EST (#393442) #
CWS are the only AL team that have added well to their team. TB and Cleveland have subtracted.

If NYY replace Tanaka with Kluber I see it as a net loss. Happ has been declining. Paxton has not regained his form. Maybe D Garcia does well for them or not. Jays, TB, CWS and others also have some unproven kids as well to answer for NYY's Garcia.

If NYY get to play against ALC and ALW teams maybe they are not worried about making the playoffs with the team (rotation) they have.
SK in NJ - Monday, January 18 2021 @ 11:55 PM EST (#393443) #
“ help us assess which is more painful (overpaying free agents ala Ryu) or trading for controllable pitching.”

For where the Jays are, free agency is definitely the way to go. They have financial flexibility, a willingness to spend, and an advantageous market for them to get talent. It may not be the top end talent when all is said and done but there is a lot of supply out there with not much demand. They’ll end up with a few good players and all it will cost is money. That’s the approach they should take. If the FA market was similar to last off-season’s, where teams were spending huge amounts of money, then obviously the Jays in that scenario would have had to get creative.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:23 AM EST (#393444) #
Also, the Yankees might not be replacing Happ who wasn't bad at all for them.
I understand that he was bad in the playoffs, but so was Ryu.

The Yankees are the division favorite on account of their lineup--when healthy and Severino coming back mid-year.

uglyone - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:28 AM EST (#393445) #
"I’m looking for home runs this off-season not infield hits."

scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:39 AM EST (#393446) #
I think it's all about getting some relievers that are not just slider/sinker guys.
He was purely a starter last year with dubious results.
In 2019, he started 5 games and relieved 33 times.
As one would expect, his number in relief were better. Opponents hit .223 .316 .350
Overall, he had pretty deep splits:
R: .176 .284 .296
L: .306 .393 .430

Team in the division haven't seen him much, so there's the novelty effect, but beware the Rays.

scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:40 AM EST (#393447) #
Different sport.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:42 AM EST (#393448) #
I don't want home runs- I want runners on base any which way.

Not a fan of the Chatwood signing. I don't see that he's a better pitcher than A.J. Cole, and personally I wouldn't be taking chances on pitchers with both injury and control issues.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:43 AM EST (#393449) #
9th Romano/Dolis
8th Dolis/Merryweather
7th Borucki/Chatwood
6th and earlier Yamaguchi+2 others.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:50 AM EST (#393450) #
That's a weak bullpen. Probably weakest in the division with Red Sox.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:34 AM EST (#393451) #
Mets just fired their GM for sexting a reporter.
Thomas - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:35 AM EST (#393452) #
Add me to the list of people puzzled at the Chatwood signing. A non-roster invite to spring training? Sure. But $3 million plus incentives? Like Mike Green said, what makes anyone think he's better than A.J. Cole, other than maybe an ability to do multi-inning stints? And the Jays have plenty of internal options for the latter, from Hatch to Thornton to Stripling, and at least some of those will be in the bullpen.

There is a disturbing article on ESPN of Mets GM Jared Porter sexually harassing a female reporter in 2016, which appears to have ultimately led to her decision to return to her native country and leave the industry. It was posted at 11pm last night and Porter was fired at 8 in the morning. Steve Cohen's companies have their own problematic incidents with how women are treated, but I will give him credit for taking swift and appropriate action.
Chuck - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:39 AM EST (#393453) #
The NY Mets. Of course. They are the Florida Man of MLB.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:40 AM EST (#393454) #
They're not catching up to the Rays or the Yankees no matter what they do.
On paper anyway. The Yankees bullpen was barely league average last year.
Baltimore's was significantly better.
Would you bet money on a repeat of that?

scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:44 AM EST (#393455) #
Springer will look terrible if he signs with the Mets just days after that.
Maybe he just sign a one year deal and fire his agent?

bpoz - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:00 AM EST (#393456) #
Looks like Chatwood will take the 40 man spot occupied by Walker Lockett. J Lester has signed with Washington 1 year. Finally there is some action.
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:07 AM EST (#393457) #
I understand the Chatwood signing type- A multi innings guy who you can start in a pinch, allowing guys like Hatch/Kay/Merryweather to begin the year as starters in AAA and the Jays will need guys to eat innings - and apparently they like his spin rates.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:14 AM EST (#393458) #
He wasn't bad in the pen.
That's why the Cubs originally tried to make a starter out of him.
They still need to keep one spot open for guys with options.
That makes it tight for Cole to come back, especially if they sign a top guy.
Cole was much better against lefties, so completely the opposite.

Glevin - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:30 AM EST (#393459) #
Jays signing Kirby Yates. There's finally a significant signing and Yates was a great pitcher for last couple of years although he is coming off an elbow injury. Let's see terms.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:46 AM EST (#393460) #
Kay and Hatch can start in AAA. Merryweather is out of options and should be in the pen.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:53 AM EST (#393461) #
Concur with Glevin.  Yates is a pitcher who is good enough to be one of your top 5 pitchers in the playoffs when healthy- bone chips removal from the elbow isn't the kind of thing that normally will prevent a full recovery the following season. 
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:00 AM EST (#393462) #
Yates was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018-19, and his 2020 season was only 4 innings due to injury. As long as his arm is good to go, he would be a nice signing.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:19 AM EST (#393463) #
Yates has a dominant splitter, do you know who likes splinters? This Jays front office. It’s a good fit between team and philosophy.

I know this in a minor gripe, but Merryweather should easily qualify for a 4th option year.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:31 AM EST (#393464) #
I get were you're coming from but Merryweather turns 30 this year and he doesn't look like he needs development time.
I think it's hard to argue that a guy with an ERA+ over 100 needs one more year of minor baseball.

That was different with Alford, because he wasn't hitting enough to be with the club.
There are many teams that would be happy to take him for free.

Glevin - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:32 AM EST (#393465) #
Signing hasn't happened yet but is close apparently.
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:52 AM EST (#393466) #
I'm guessing that his agent is leaking info. to try to top the Jays offer.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 11:40 AM EST (#393467) #
Merryweather doesn’t need development he needs to be stretched out. It’s harder for a contending team to make the modified inning limit work while trying to contend. Same goes for Hatch and Kay.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 11:43 AM EST (#393468) #
The Jays seem to be firming up their bullpen while they wait for the position players and starters to shake out.

So if Yates is signed and hopefully a few more, who is coming off the 40 man roster? Maybe Derek Fisher and some pitchers like Jacob Waguespack, Ty Tice or Anthony Castro? I also was surprised to see that Shun Yamaguchi is 6ft2. I guess since he is Japanese I figured he was under 6ft.

John Northey - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 11:55 AM EST (#393469) #
So current rotation is Ryu/Roark/Ray/Chatwood/Pearson but #3-5 there are all going to be short inning starters so you need a backup for each - Merryweather/Stripling/Yamaguchi should cover them. Then you have the pen with Yates closing, Dolis/Romano setup, Borucki/Hatch middle men. There is the 8 man bullpen for a 13 man staff. Not horrid, but lots of room for improvement.

With the Mets GM being fired over dick pics, wonder if Springer is thinking twice about going there and the Jays odds jumped? Should be interesting to see what happens.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 12:04 PM EST (#393470) #
The last reliable data on the average height of Japanese males was from 2007.  It shows it at 5'8" (173 cm.), an inch shorter than the average Canadian at the time. 

I would venture a guess that the average Japanese ballplayer is 6' or above- Tanaka is 6'3",  Hideki Matsui is 6'2" and  Okajima is 6'1".
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 12:10 PM EST (#393471) #
If you're planning to get 180-200 innings out of Tanner Roark in 2020, you're doing something wrong.  How do you spell long relief?
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 12:32 PM EST (#393472) #
Chatwood is not in the rotation. Stripling probably is for now, but things can change.

Because of injury concern, Merryweather will probably stick to the pen.
Maybe they stretch him in spring training and he gets a chance at a spot.
Hatch should definitively get some time in AAA to refine his game, along with Kay, Zeuch, Thornton.

Cole is a candidate for the pen, but probably starts the year in AAA.
Same with Tim Mayza.
I don't think they'd drop Ty Tice at this point.
Castro has 2 options left and would probably not be dropped ahead of some other guys like Waguespack, Reid-Foley and Hector Perez.
MLB ranks Castro 19th, just behind Patrick Murphy and ahead of Merryweather, Yennsy Diaz and the others.

Heyman believe the Mets best offer was in the same ballpark as the Jays' 115M.
That would make more sense.
Just go 125M if that's what it takes.

scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 12:43 PM EST (#393473) #
Maybe you give him a couple of months to see if he can bounce back?
He's a sunk cost of 12M anyway.

Roark has 1071 innings as a starter and 77 as a reliever.
None since 2 games in 2017.
Historically, his best months are April and May.

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 12:48 PM EST (#393474) #
Roark was bad in 2019 too, but posted a decent ERA thanks to a wonderful Nationals defence.  His Statcast xERAs for the last two years are 5.29 and 6.65.  A "sunk cost" means you don't have to put him in a role consistent with his salary, but rather in a role consistent with his expected performance.  And if you are expecting anything more than #6 starter from him, you're saying that you are not trying to compete. 
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 12:55 PM EST (#393475) #
I'm hopeful that the Jays can find new homes for Roark and Grichuk - it probably requires eating some salary.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 01:03 PM EST (#393476) #
The thing is, they have a lot of young guys with no expected performances.
I'm not saying you keep him in the rotation if he stinks, but you at least give him a chance to earn a demotion.
Yeah, his FIP was higher in 2019, but he didn't play for Washington.
He started 21 games for Cincinnati (FIP of 4.18, perfectly in inline with his career numbers) and 10 for Oakland (FIP of 5.63). It's harder in the AL, I get that, but he got shelled by the NL East last year.
So, maybe, you just let him go back to his routine and see.

lexomatic - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 01:10 PM EST (#393477) #
Love the details about Jays coaching in Taijuan Walker interview on fangraphs
John Northey - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 01:54 PM EST (#393478) #
Agreed that Roark is not one to count on, but it seems the Jays are right now so I listed him and his only real purpose is to eat innings so the pen gets a break, athough he isn't good enough to do that either really. My list was more a 'if the season starts now' thing.  Ryu/Ray/Pearson/Stripling are the most likely to be in the rotation if I give it more thought with Chatwood being in the pen with Yates/Dolis/Romano/Borucki/Hatch/Merryweather/Yamaguchi and the 8th slot for Roark if they can't dump him on someone.  Right now I'm wondering if Roark and Gruchuk are going to be used as salary balance in a trade where the Jays take on someone else's bad contract (using Trade Simluator I get Arendo & $22 million for Roark & Grichuk accepted but I doubt that would happen).
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 02:15 PM EST (#393479) #
I was thinking about Moose, but the Reds don't need an outfielder.
A catcher, maybe.
Moose's contract is pretty bad, though.

bpoz - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 02:39 PM EST (#393480) #
How much of an underdog to NYY, TB, Cleveland and CWS are the Jays to take the division or a WC? Is is significant?
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 03:12 PM EST (#393481) #
The Jays have to show that the performance improvement seen in the short 2020 season is real.
Tampa will transition some prospects to replace key performers. That is their challenge.
They do have Arozarena in left field now.
The Yankees have the best team on paper, but they haven't been able to keep healthy. Will that continue?
Kluber will be their number 2 and as it stands the rest of their rotation is Montgomery, Garcia and Domingo German.

In the central, the 2 top teams are the Sox and the Twins.

The Angels are a big question mark.
They need a lot of pitching.
This is Pujols' last year, so maybe they just stand pat?

bpoz - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 03:36 PM EST (#393482) #
Youthful exuberance caused the Jays to give away a pretty strong performance against the Rays. Bad base running. After that the Jays seemed to know that "doing things the right way" was needed. IMO our kids must learn from their mistakes. I think Vlad learned that he could not take the extra base from ML players.

SRF has 71 ML innings but he is still not comfortable on the mound. The other kids Kay, Hatch have a lot less Innings. Prorating for a full season means nothing to me. They need 100 IP to figure out how their stuff stacks up.

Thomas - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 04:05 PM EST (#393483) #
As Lexomatic notes, the interview with Walker on Fangraphs is well worth a read.

Also, he's basically inviting the Jays to re-sign him....
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 04:32 PM EST (#393484) #
It was the same with Ray. Really eager to come back and work with Pete Walker.
It's interesting. I imagine Pete Walker has minimal input with Ryu who already knows what he's doing.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 04:59 PM EST (#393485) #
Roark should not be in the 2021 rotation, and other than being a depth SP, he doesn't provide much value out of the pen. Dumping him for an equally bad, or more likely worse, contract attached to a more useful player is probably the only way to get value there. Beyond that, releasing him and swallowing the bad money is the other, but I don't think they would do that. You could make the argument that in a normal schedule where he's not just facing the AL East that he might end up providing better value, but with his complaining publicly about being pulled early in starts last season (something this org is going to do a lot based on recent managing) combined with his awful secondary numbers and drop in velocity, it is probably just not worth it to keep him around if the goal is to contend.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 05:33 PM EST (#393486) #
Yates is in agreement with the Jays, per Rosenthal
John Northey - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 05:38 PM EST (#393487) #
For the rotation I'd like to see it Ryu/someone else (Bauer?)/Walker (resign for 1-2 years)/Stripling-Ray sharing a slot (4-5 innings each each time, alternate who starts depending on opponent)/Pearson with other kids in AAA ready to step in (Kay, Thornton, Hatch, Zeuch, etc.). I suspect once a few more guys sign (Springer, Bauer) then the Jays will chase down Walker and others to fill in spots.

Speaking of Springer - the Mets aren't planning to replace their GM until next winter - that has to make it a LOT harder to sign free agents I'd think (who would want to be with a club that is run by committee). The Jays know this and are reported to be doing a big push on Springer now.
krose - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:07 PM EST (#393488) #
Quite sure the Jays should get at least one more free agent starter. Hope he is Mr. Bauer! In any case, if the 26 man roster was set today, the possible starters might be: Ryu, Pearson, Ray, Stripling, and Roark. Thornton, along with the most advanced of Murphy, Kay and Hatch could be waiting in the wings.
krose - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:11 PM EST (#393489) #
With the acquisition of Yates the bullpen is taking shape. Yates, Romano, Dolis, Merryweather, Borucki, Cole, Yamaguchi, Waguespack, Zeuch.
Thomas - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:17 PM EST (#393490) #
Krose, how could you forget recent acquisition Tyler Chatwood?
krose - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 07:29 PM EST (#393491) #
Oh dang. Edit already?
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:13 PM EST (#393492) #
Fangraph has the bullpen as:
Closer Yates
8th Romano
7th Dolis
Mid Merryweather/Borucki/Chatwood/Kay
Long Relief Yamaguchi

I think that's pretty close. Kay stand for the one guy with options. Waguespack/Murphy/Reid Foley/Castro are others who could rotate in that spot.
In that scenario, Cole starts in AAA in case of injury.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:33 PM EST (#393493) #
Chisholm from The Star has either Roark or Yamaguchi getting jettisoned (his prediction) once things are all done.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:47 PM EST (#393494) #
Either or both of Roark and/or Yamaguchi being dumped would shock exactly no one. Right now I figure the 2 of them and Grichuk are viewed as extra weight to put into a trade if they try to get a guy who has an ugly contract but is still good. Both contract will go down as poor in the end.

Yamaguchi was $6.35M & $1.27M posting fee.
Roark was $24M

So a net of $31.62 mil spent on the 2 of them getting -1.1 bWAR in 2020, -0.8 fWAR. A lot of wasted money, but given the Jays only paid 37% of the 2020 salaries it works out to not be as bad as it could've been. A sign that going middle of the road you better not waste too much. Better to take risks on guys like Ryu who have a high ceiling, than on guys like Roark with a low ceiling.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 08:50 PM EST (#393495) #
Roark and Yamaguchi are guaranteed their money and have little trade value.
You don't usually hang to guys like these just to release them in January.

They do need to free a spot.
Ideally a catcher is traded to create an infield spot.
If they can sign Springer, Grichuk should be traded.

There's a few prospects running out of ropes.
Waguespack wasn't great last year.
Reid-Foley could probably get outrighted and clear waivers.
Hector Perez too.
Derek Fisher, if Palacios is to get a shot.
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:00 PM EST (#393496) #
Thumbs up on the Yates signing - I'm predicting that Yates will outperform Hendricks in 2021.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:00 PM EST (#393497) #
Grichuk is still valuable. Isn't he the leader on the white board in the Jays tunnel where they give points to finishing the plays and hustle?

Looks like $5,500,000 for Kirby from the Jays on a 1 year deal with incentives of $4,500,000. That's a seriously good deal for Toronto and leaves lots of room for a stud signing.

Between Chatwood and Yates, I get the impression that the Jays intel doesn't think they can get 2 of the remaining big three.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:09 PM EST (#393499) #
Don Sutton died yesterday. 2021 begins the way 2020 ended for the Hall of Fame.

Sutton was never a great pitcher but he was very good from age 21 to age 41. Durability is definitely an important feature of most Hall of Fame pitching careers.
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:14 PM EST (#393500) #
And thumbs up on the Yates deal.
scottt - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:15 PM EST (#393501) #
Yates was predicted around 5M.
Incentives are not a big deal since he has to earn them.

Regarding Roark. If they were to drop him, they might as well wait until they sign another starter.

bpoz - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:18 PM EST (#393502) #
Most likely that is it for the Jays off season.

Shapiro said 4/5 decent players. Depth is important. 4 so far. Yates, Chatwood, Cole and Ray.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:26 PM EST (#393504) #
SIGNIFICANT: first report in that Springer and Jays have a deal.
Magpie - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:33 PM EST (#393505) #
Sutton was never a great pitcher

He was indeed mostly very good for a very long time but in his best years he really was one of the three best pitchers in the league. He never won, or deserved, a Cy Young (his best finish was 3rd) but he probably should have been the runner-up three times. He did have one pretty great season. That was 1972, the year the Dodgers switched to a five man rotation. Sutton, making 33 starts after making 41, 38, and 37 in the previous three years, went 19-9, 2.08 (not that he was winning the Cy Young that year anyway.) The Dodgers tried going back to a four man rotation a couple of years later, in 1974, but Tommy John's elbow exploded in July and that was the end of that.

Sutton's long career was absurdly consistent, with one little quirk - he always pitched a fair bit better in September than any other month. It's his month with the most wins and best ERA. And that was certainly handy if you were in a pennant race, and his teams usually were.
Magpie - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:35 PM EST (#393506) #
And you got to like a guy who has a clubhouse fistfight with Steve Garvey, no?
Mike Green - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:43 PM EST (#393507) #
I'm a pacifist but there are a few exceptions. A fistfight with Garvey is one of them.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:49 PM EST (#393509) #
Rosenthal now reporting Springer to Jays...
Paul D - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:55 PM EST (#393514) #
Where are you seeing that? It's not on rosenthal's twitter
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 09:56 PM EST (#393515) #
Heyman reporting that it's not done yet, Mets still in. Price expected to exceed $125,000,000

If you go to Twitter search and look up "george springer" and filter by Latest filter you can see
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:04 PM EST (#393518) #
Ken Rosenthal tweet I saw was a fake account. No confirmation from Heyman, Passan or Rosenthal...
Magpie - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:07 PM EST (#393521) #
And thumbs up on the Yates deal.

This is a guy who went undrafted out of college, who's been designated for assignment three times, was claimed on waivers two times....

Baseball. Nobody knows anything.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:13 PM EST (#393524) #
Morosi just tweeted that the Jays are the front runners to sign
Springer. He is giving Vendetta and bkuh credit. Those two other people
are still reporting the deal is done pending a physical. Real account.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:56 PM EST (#393531) #
Done deal now. Passan confirmed.
Paul D - Tuesday, January 19 2021 @ 10:57 PM EST (#393533) #
Heyman reports it's done, 6 years, $150 million
scottt - Wednesday, January 20 2021 @ 10:57 AM EST (#393579) #
Looking back, Roark had a half-decent start against Washington on Jul 28, than he sat up until Aug 7 and never faced the NL East again.  In his second start he only threw 68 pitches while walking 5 and striking out 1, which is not characteristic. His 3rd start was 7 days later. He didn't do well on long rest and facing the Yankees 3 times in a row was not good for him, to say the least. The difference with his previous years is the HR rate. Which is also the problem he had in Oakland, but he still pitched well enough there (Game scores 68, 59, 59, 58, etc..) including a couple of games with 0 walks, 7 Ks and 1 HR--one of those against the Yankees.
mathesond - Wednesday, January 20 2021 @ 05:04 PM EST (#393622) #
"facing the Yankees 3 times in a row was not good for him, to say the least."

Shades of Joey Hamilton vs. the Red Sox many years ago...
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