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5 more years. He signed on through 2025.

Not a lot of details, but a tweet by Ben Nicholson-Smith states it. "Rogers, which also owns Sportsnet, first hired Shapiro late in 2015. Another five year deal would run through 2025."

Good move imo. Can't complain about it. The Jays have done well these past 5 years. Moving from a division title, their first playoff appearance in decades, to a wild card, to 3 years of rebuild, to a playoff slot again. With a deep farm things look good for the future, with minimal payroll limits going forward (Ryu, Grichuk, and Gurriel the only contracts beyond 2021). I can't see what anyone would have to complain about really. There are minor issues here and there but nothing major that jumps out at me. Opinions?
Shapiro extended | 105 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 10:37 AM EST (#393275) #
I guess it's a tweet from Edward Rogers. "Shapiro's leadership and commitment over the last five years have been critical to the team's growth and development."


scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 10:40 AM EST (#393276) #
From Shapiro "Living in Toronto and Canada has been life changing for me and my family and I am excited to experience the feeling of winning a championship with this city and country."
PeterG - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 10:44 AM EST (#393277) #
Good move.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 11:46 AM EST (#393278) #
Good move I'd say. Shapiro seems to have a vision for the team with rebuilding of the facilities in Dunedin. emphasis on player development, good drafting and a strong farm system. True success will come when the major league team wins a lot more than it loses and does well in the playoffs.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 01:11 PM EST (#393279) #
One day Shapiro and company will have to choose 1) Sign a Bauer/G Cole. 2) Trade for a Clevenger/Snell.

For #1 they may or may not want to commit the payroll that much. For #2 the prospect capital will be huge so they need a very powerful farm OR they suffer a possible rebuild.

Our current rebuild is a severe one. Lucky we had the young talent GGBB+ from acquired drafts to plug in fast and just let them quickly adjust to the ML started in 2019 IMO. The elite pitching is Pearson (2020) and Manoa, SWR, Kloss starting in 2022 IMO.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 01:39 PM EST (#393280) #
2016 .549 w% / .560 pythag%
2017 .469 w% / .444 pythag%
2018 .451 w% / .427 pythag%
2019 .414 w% / .440 pythag%
2020 .533 w% / .485 pythag% --> only 60 games

A lot of narrative riding on those 60gms.

Are there expanded playoffs again this year?
grjas - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 01:45 PM EST (#393281) #
Best young team we’ve had in 30+ years, built very quickly. No brainer to extend him.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:04 PM EST (#393282) #
The 2020 team @.533 was an 86 win team for a full 162 games. I don't even know what went right.

We only played ALE and NLE teams.

Only 1 SP was good (Ryu). I think the pen would have been worn out if 162 games.

The extra playoff spots were a crucial bonus and the trade deadline deals were impressive.

So 2020 playoff spot fell into our laps.

For 2021 without the extra playoff spots we may be sellers at the deadline. We have reliever contracts expiring Yamaguchi, Dolis and Cole. Also SPs Roark and Ray.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:23 PM EST (#393283) #
"Young" Team

SP Ryu 34
SP Ray 29
SP Roark 34
SP Stripling 31
SP Pearson 24
SP Borucki 27
SP Thornton 27

RP Romano 28
RP Dolis 33
RP Cole 29
RP Yamaguchi 33
RP Hatch 26
RP Kay 26
RP Merryweather 29
RP Waguesback 27
RP Zeuch 25



3B Guerrero 22
SS Bichette 23
2B Biggio 26
LF Gurriel 27
RF Hernandez 28
CF Grichuk 29
C Jansen 26
1B Tellez 26
DH Kirk 22

C McGuire 26
IF Espinal 26
OF Fisher 27
OF Davis 29
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:25 PM EST (#393284) #
In 2020, the Blue Jays were 12th in batting average, 13th in OBP, 11th in OPS, 7th in run scored 8th in HR and 9th in stolen bases. Drury is gone, they just need to do more than replace the production of Travis Shaw, Caleb Joseph, Joe Panik and Villar.

The rotation was 17th in ERA, 25th in WHIP, 24th in BB/9, 12th in K/9, 24th in H/9 and 24th in HR/9.
Shouldn't be too hard to improve on that. I'm pretty sure they need another starter.

The pen was 24th in ERA, 23th in WHIP, 26th in BB/9, 21th in K/9, 21th in H/9 and 11th in HR/9.
That one is a bit misleading because the rotation was so bad that the pen had to throw so many innings.
Still, they surely need to add an arm to the back end.

The can plug all those holes by giving large contract to key players. Would a 3rd year to Turner do it? 5 for Springer?
Add a dependable reliever and a starting pitcher with some upside.
Ryu gets 20M per year. Grichuk 10M. Roark is due another 12M. Ray is costing 8M. Gurriel and Yamaguchi a little over 3M each. Only Stripling and Hernandez are eligible for arbitration.
The team is in a great place. Fangraphs has Pearson, Martin, SWR, Groshans, Kirk and Martinez in their top 100.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:33 PM EST (#393285) #
Well deserved.  I think that the drafting over the last 5 years is going to end up working out very well, and the challenge is to convert the various pieces of talent into a club ready to win.  Sometimes this hurdle is too much, as it was for Gord Ash in his time here. 
John Northey - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 02:49 PM EST (#393286) #
Batters age for 2020 25.9. Same as in 2019. Only lower ages were 1980 and 1981 which lead to the great 1983-1993 teams. I'd say that is a great sign.

Of course, this is the 6th oldest pitching staff ever at 29.5 years old, which is a negative (matches 1993 - the final year of the first great era of Jays baseball).

Pitchers who were over 30 that are no longer here unless the Jays choose to resign in some cases - Shoemaker, Anderson, Bass, Font, Gaviglio, Moran. That will help drop the age a bit. I expect more innings going towards 25 and under guys like Pearson, Perez, Reid-Foley. Plus other prospects in the minors coming up. Guys like Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, Adam Kloffenstein, Eric Pardinho, Anthony Castro, and others. Lets hope the Jays can mix in as many kids as possible into the rotation and pen in 2021. Aging will be via 2 new guys added (ideally an infielder - 3B and starter)
bpoz - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 03:20 PM EST (#393287) #
The playoff structure for 1983/84 was very hard. The 4 man rotation had Stieb, Clancy and maybe Doyle Alexander and was healthy. Joey Mac and the others did not anchor the pen. They were not overworked either.

I don't know when McGriff arrived. I would like to know the number of ABs for T Fernandez, Bell, Mosby and Barfield to see how much ML experience they had. I know that Mosby hit .230 for a few years at the beginning.



85bluejay - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 03:37 PM EST (#393288) #
A tough day for our friend uglyone, my sympathies - and more bad news, I'm predicting that when this 2nd 5 year contract ends, Shapiro will receive a 3rd 5 year extension.
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 03:54 PM EST (#393289) #
Age of pitchers is not necessary an issue.
Lots of pitchers take a long time to figure it out.
Borucki, Thornton are still trying to figure it out at 27. Merryweather at 29.
Injury can happen at any age.
There is a loss of velocity at some point.
Ryu will turn 34 during the season. His best pitch hovers at 85 mph.
Roark is already 34. I don't know that they're banking on him.
Dolis just hit 33 and Yamaguchi will hit that in 6 months.
I expect them to bring some "older" pitchers to round up the staff.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 04:14 PM EST (#393290) #
1983 was the year I first really started to pay attention to baseball so I remember that team fairly well. McGriff wasn't here until '86 (briefly) full time in 1987 (was at Exhibition Stadium for his first home run - barely cleared the LF fence as I recall). The rotation was Stieb/Clancy/Leal (his career ended fast in 85)/Jim Gott/assorted (Alexander once he arrived). The pen was a mess though - looking at BR I see 5 guys getting saves with ERA+'s between 94 and 115 so nothing 'wow', lots of wildness. Might explain the 43 complete games. That winter the Jays blew a lot getting Dennis Lamp in to close, that didn't work, then traded away their starters at SS and LF for Bill Caudill (a solid closer at the time). I remember the talk of moving Stieb to the closer slot as it was so bad. What is funny is Gott later was a very good closer for Pittsburgh with 34 saves in 1988. As most know the solution came from a free agent compensation pick named Tom Henke from Texas (teams could protect 25 guys from that - so they basically lost Cliff Johnson for half a season to get Henke - dang good).

Given Shapiro will be here for 10 years as president the Jays will have had just 4 so far I think. Peter Hardy, Beeston (twice, pre and post Godfrey), Paul Godfrey, and Shapiro.
Magpie - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 06:57 PM EST (#393291) #
Some news. Bauxite Emeritus Mike Moffat, who I believe introduced all of us to the concept of cuttlefish as rewards, reports that he's tested positive for COVID. Says he's feeling OK. A little run-down but "I had just assumed it’s because I don’t sleep, have a diet that is 95% coffee and am unfamiliar with the concept of a vegetable."

Get well, Mike.
John Northey - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 07:06 PM EST (#393292) #
Yikes! Knew at some point someone here would get it given how many cases there are but still yikes. If reading here Mike we are all thinking of you and hoping you are one of the lucky ones who has minimal issues with it.

On a Jays related note, I don't think he is related to Randy Moffitt, the closer of those 1983 Jays (sorry, couldn't resist as I was just looking them up earlier so his name was on my mind). Nor am I related to the 2 Northey's who played in the majors (a father/son combo Ron & Scott) for that matter. Odd last names make one check.
johnny was - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 07:33 PM EST (#393293) #
OK. Now that that negotiation is out of the way, please go find a player, preferably a good one, and extend him.
scottt - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 08:24 PM EST (#393294) #
It appears the Mets don't expect to extend Lindor.
Some reporter say the Mets front office view the trade as a success even if it's only for one year of Lindor.
Maybe they figure there is going to be several great shortstops available next year so there is no  point in overpaying for Lindor now.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 13 2021 @ 11:56 PM EST (#393295) #
I hope this works out for the organization. I don’t feel qualified to say whether Shapiro has done a good job overall, but there seem to be some promising signs (the new spring training complex, some good moves in rebuilding the farm system, some underrated moves in bolstering the major-league roster). It remains to be seen whether he can maintain this momentum and goodwill and take the team and organization to the next level (and keep it there).
Thomas - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 05:38 AM EST (#393296) #
Get well soon, Mike. It sounds like he's not experiencing it as hard as some people I know have been, which is good news.

I'm happy with the extension. I have more mixed thoughts on Atkins (to the extent they can be divorced from each other), but I've been more impressed with his recent moves, which is promising.

With regards to the extension, I've always thought having Shapiro as the President was a good appointment. The bigger moves, such as the aforementioned revamp of the Dunedin facilities and last year's adventure in Buffalo, seem to have been handled quite well.
Gerry - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 07:26 AM EST (#393297) #
Good luck Mike. London has become a bot of a hot spot recently.
Mike Green - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 09:25 AM EST (#393299) #
Get well soon, Mike.


bpoz - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 09:41 AM EST (#393300) #
Shapiro has a lot of experience and possibly understanding about his job. I believe his father was also a long time baseball executive.

Mistakes are always made eg Morales signing, draft picks Warmoth, Woodman & possibly G Conine. We have also had a few good picks Bo, Biggio.

Something I did not like was discarding scouts and development personnel. B Cherrington was brought in and poached. There have been 3 scouting directors in the 5 years he has been here. So Shapiro has had his share of success here.

Cherrington is young and Shapiro is older. Shapiro/Atkins rebuild started at the 2018 trade deadline. Cherrington's rebuild in Pittsburg is immediate. Both had to eliminate some payroll contracts.

Cherrington has to succeed in the NLC which is different from the ALE.
scottt - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 09:58 AM EST (#393301) #
Get well Mike. The second week was worse for me.

I'm not sure EE was a mistake.
There were no deep relationship between EE and the new front office and he wanted a premium to stay.
Gurriel might have be tied to signing Morales, maybe Pearson slips through if EE signs.
Woodman turned out OK, for Toronto anyway.  Not every pick turns out well and we don't know the end story.
The local scouts and the scouting director surely play a part.
Overall, the drafting has been much better than under AA.
It's too early to compare the International signings as those guys are signed so young.


John Northey - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 10:02 AM EST (#393302) #
Cherrington's first year was ugly - 19-41, 5th in a division where every other team made the expanded playoffs. He has a middle of the road farm to start (15th rank in 2019 before he joined, 16th right now so no real change). Average age in the majors of 27.1 hitters, 27.8 pitchers in 2020. So he has his work cut out for him. But it is the NL Central so odds are those other 4 teams will not be spending a lot which makes it a lot easier vs Yankees/Boston unlimited, Rays super-smart, O's - OK, every division needs its weakling.
Glevin - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 11:17 AM EST (#393303) #
The extension makes sense. The Jays are in a healthiest place they've been in IMO for about 30 years (good major league team, lots of good young talent, very good system, no contracts that will hold team back, etc...). It feels like the start of a sustainable contender. There are areas to improve. I think the trades have been OK on average but my main quibble is giving up quality prospects for mediocre major leaguers which they've done a few times and I don't think is necessary. But good drafting, some deft trading, good IFA signing, and maybe most importantly took considerable heat for rightly moving on from the 2015 core (should have done it earlier even).
grjas - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 11:19 AM EST (#393304) #
"It appears the Mets don't expect to extend Lindor."
That makes me even more comfortable that we lost out on the trade. I don't think shifting Bichette off his natural position for one year of Lindor makes sense at this point. The Jays aren't one player away from a championship.  On the other hand, trading for a year or two of a good third basemen could work as a bridge to one of the youngsters.
bpoz - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 12:15 PM EST (#393305) #
The NL seems to be trading for top AL talent. Snell & Lindor.

At this date in the off season I see NYY, CWS and Minnesota in a comfortable playoff contending position. Based on this, it leaves the Jays as a solid WC contender in a large field. LAA on the other hand can get a WC or 1st place.

I see LAA as a nice trading partner for the Jays at the trade deadline or next off season. LAA is desperate for good pitching and the Jays are not desperate for anything IMO.



uglyone - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 02:27 PM EST (#393306) #
"A tough day for our friend uglyone, my sympathies - and more bad news, I'm predicting that when this 2nd 5 year contract ends, Shapiro will receive a 3rd 5 year extension."

no doubt.

He is the perfect Rogers' executive. Everything they ever dreamed of.
bpoz - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 06:34 PM EST (#393307) #
Int'l signing starts tomorrow.
Glevin - Thursday, January 14 2021 @ 08:16 PM EST (#393308) #
Manuel Beltre is confirmed for Jays. He has played in the US a ton so lots of scouting and data on him if you google it.
jgadfly - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:18 AM EST (#393309) #
Manuel Beltre ... 7minutes of Academy Baseball video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ump-9LYA-og

MLB.com blurb ... Scouts also love his makeup, baseball IQ and dedication to the sport. He’s been praised for his work ethic and his game play abilities.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/international/
damos - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:28 AM EST (#393310) #
Morosi tweeting that LeMathieu is finalizing an agreement w/ the Yanks. Deal could be complete today.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:02 AM EST (#393311) #
Hand to Mets...

Bad news as it likely means Springer to Mets next with the savings (vs a Hendricks signing).
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:18 AM EST (#393312) #
Well, good news of these transactions (if they happen) is the market is finally moving. I'm hoping the Jays pushed the Yankees to pay more in years and dollars then they planned (4/$80) by a lot. I am hoping at least 5/$100. Anything to screw up the Yankees budget :) Hand seems a lost opportunity but we'll see as others have mentioned he saw a loss of velocity the past 2 years but still was effective. Of course, that was in just 22 innings in the AL Central (probably the easiest place to pad stats last year - vs the equally weak NL Central only all season).

Maybe we'll get lucky and see Springer make up his mind this week, then Bauer. I have felt for awhile it'd be LeMahieu, Springer, Bauer, Realmuto for the big 4 in order of signing. First 2 alternating depending on rumors of the day.

Of note: international signing begins today so expect a flurry of international free agents signing (ala Vlad a few years back). The Jays are part of the biggest group with $5,348,100 to spend. 6 teams have a cap of $6,431,000, while Atlanta has just $1,572,700. The Yankees have the 2nd least to spend at just $4,232,700. Jays are expected to sign Manuel Beltre, SS, Dominican Republic for $2.6 mil (ranked #24). #2 Oscar Colas, LHP/OF, Cuba is not tied to a team at the moment. While #1 Yoelqui Céspedes, OF, Cuba is expected to sign with the White Sox for $2.05. I'd say that #1 guy has a poor agent if he really signs for that amount while guys far further down the list get more. #7 is expected to get $4 mil for example (Pedro Leon, OF, Cuba – Astros) while #4/5/6 all expected to get $3 mil each.
Glevin - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:25 AM EST (#393313) #
"Bad news as it likely means Springer to Mets next with the savings (vs a Hendricks signing)."

I don't think so. I think it means it's unlikely they sign Springer. They've already spent a lot this off-season adding about $60M to their payroll. They also have a ton of FA after the year. Lindor, Conforto, Syndergaard, Familia, and Stroman are all FA and I am sure the Mets will want to re-sign at least a couple of them. They still have Cano and DeGrom taking up about $60M a year for the next 2 years.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:47 AM EST (#393314) #
Glevin, it's fair to see it that way also. One thing to keep in mind though is apparently the NYM and TBJ have offers still out to Springer for $100+ million. And! The NYM are willing, apparently to trade players away to make room.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:01 AM EST (#393315) #
They've been looking to trade Matz who makes over 5M. He was terrible last year and he's a free agent in the fall.
Hand will probably push their payroll over 190M.

bpoz - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:05 AM EST (#393316) #
I can understand LAD doing little or nothing. Boston & LAA are too quiet. Of course Preller and Dombrowski seem to be active a lot. Their style.
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:18 AM EST (#393317) #
Did we just give $2.6m to the 24th best international 16yr old?
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:20 AM EST (#393318) #
Forget springer.

Expect something more like Kluber on a "value" deal.
mathesond - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:26 AM EST (#393319) #
I didn't give him squat.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:32 AM EST (#393320) #
At this point I don't see much happening for they Jays that will please us. We want to sign a premier free agent or trade for very good players or get some good players on great contracts. Those are the wants. Sign Bauer or Realmuto, trade for Castillo or Bryant or sign guys like Semien and Kluber...
I think we need to start acknowledging that the players in the first category who have a choice just don't want to play in Toronto. Even if the Jays over pay they may prefer NY or LA. As an example, reports are surfacing that Lemahieu is taking 90 million over 6 years! to help the Yankees stay under the luxury cap. That's crazy.
Bauer will probably go to Chicago, New York, Los Angeles or Boston. The narrative has been "Jays need to over pay for elite talent to come here in free agency." Maybe that's not true. Maybe Ryu came here not only because we overpaid but because we were his only real option at 4 years due to his mid 30s age and heavy build. Maybe it was only the Jays 4 year offer or the Dodgers at 2 or 3 reduced years. Springer, Realmuto and Bauer I'm sure will have more offers to choose from and maybe the Jays can't overpay enough to sway them.
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:35 AM EST (#393321) #
Apparently the LeMahieu contract is 6/90.  It looks to me like the Yankees are getting better than market value. 
Gerry - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:37 AM EST (#393322) #
From Twitter....

Source: Dodgers offered LeMahieu 4/60. Blue jays offered him 4/78. Braves were interested. Mets were too.

Also being told he was very close to going to Toronto
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:45 AM EST (#393323) #
so close again.

unlucky!
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:51 AM EST (#393324) #
The consensus projections for LeMahieu next year are roughly .290/.350/.445 and just over 3 WAR.  In Yankee Stadium, I'll take the over on the projections, as I think he is particularly well suited to the park. 

There isn't a whole lot of difference between 4/78 and 6/90. LeMahieu will probably be in a part-time role in years 5 and 6 of the contract and $6 million isn't too far from what his value might be. 
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:53 AM EST (#393325) #
Interesting deal. $15 per year on the Yankees budget, but he is signed through age 37 and few would expect him to be solid through that age. Odds are the Yankees will be paying $15 mil for a backup in years 5 & 6. Seems a lot like what you see in the NBA where a player gives up years or money in order to allow the team to have cap space.

Interesting that yet again the Jays are 2nd best - 3rd time isn't it? Kim, Lindor, and now LeMahieu. At least they are close - last year they were 2nd on Cole but got Ryu for far, far less which worked well. Wonder how this winters near misses will work out in the end?

Of note: Liam Hendriks' deal is done now - $39 mil over 3 years plus $15 mil option for the 4th year or $15 mil buyout which would be deferred over 10 years. So unless he really sucks over the next 3 years or gets injured badly that option will be picked up. But this puts more cap usage in the early years (first 3 years based on $54 mil) thus opening space in the 4th year if needed. Creative.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:58 AM EST (#393326) #
"Did we just give $2.6m to the 24th best international 16yr old?"

Beltre is considered the most advanced hitter of the class, according to mlbtraderumors latest.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:02 AM EST (#393327) #
So, if reports from this board are accurate, then Lemahieu used not only Toronto but Los Angeles to get the NYY to up their offer. Yankees essentially matched the $15M/year the Dodgers offered, but told Lemahieu they needed to spread it out of 6 years for luxury tax purposes and it worked.

If Mets were interested then they probably have more money for Springer.

Turner now will fit in at LA and Bauer is the big wild card.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:03 AM EST (#393328) #
The 24th draft pick got 3M. 

Beltre might be the most advanced hitter in this year’s class.

He has sure hands with good range and a quick transfer. He has plus-arm potential that suits him well at both shortstop and second base, where he has a chance to be an above-average defender.

Scouts also love his makeup, baseball IQ and dedication to the sport. He’s been praised for his work ethic and his game play abilities. He is an average runner.

Yoelqui Cespedes is 23. That's a tad old.


Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:07 AM EST (#393329) #
The Yankees had two edges over others in the competition for LeMahieu's services: the park and also not having to give up a pick. 
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:12 AM EST (#393330) #
6/90 seems so weird. Less per year than expected and a longer term than expected
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:13 AM EST (#393331) #
The way I would conceptualize LeMahieu's contract is something like: 26M, 22M, 17M, 13M, 6M, 6M. 
ISLAND BOY - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:19 AM EST (#393332) #
So now that Lemahieu has gone back to the Yankees, the Jays must have a plan B in mind. How will the infield shake down now? I really can't see Vlad, much as he wants to, playing third all season.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:26 AM EST (#393333) #
Springer is more expensive. 
The idea is the same, the Mets could go 6 or 7 years on Springer to make him fit, but at this point, they'd be in tax territory.
That leaves the Yankees with only 15M to fill the rotation.

Springer 6/150M is doable.
Let's just push Hand a bit higher.

Glevin - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:26 AM EST (#393334) #
"So now that Lemahieu has gone back to the Yankees, the Jays must have a plan B in mind. How will the infield shake down now? I really can't see Vlad, much as he wants to, playing third all season."

Ideally, the Jays would get someone for one year. I think one of Groshans or Martin is probably close to majors by end of year and hopefully ready to start next year. Someone like Todd Frazier, Brad Miller, or Maikel Franco might make sense for a year. I think a Kris Bryant trade also makes a lot of sense as long as cost isn't too high.
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:28 AM EST (#393335) #
They don't lose a pick but they don't get one either. It evens out.
It's not like Bautista, whom nobody was going to lose a pick over. 

uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:26 PM EST (#393336) #

Mark Shapiro said this last month re. #BlueJays moves:

“That could come in the form of four very good players. It can come in the form of two elite players, but we’re going to get better.”

Jays have many needs. Some options now closing off. Still many ways they can improve.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 15, 2021
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:39 PM EST (#393337) #
4/80 was my max for LeMahieu, so if the Jays offered 4/78 then I'm ok with that - I think unless the Jays significantly overbid (5/110), LeMahieu was not coming here - 2 of La Stella/Profar/Wong/Lamb to play the infield/backup would be ok for me - also Bryant if the price is reasonable - I'd like to know if Valera Breyvic will be available.
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:42 PM EST (#393338) #
I hope the Jays FO don't panic and significantly overpay for someone.
electric carrot - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:49 PM EST (#393339) #
I feel the opposite: I hope the FO panics and overpays for someone.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 12:52 PM EST (#393340) #
Two potential arbitration cases are dealt with...
Teoscar Hernandez: $4.325 mil for 2021
Ross Stripling: $3 mil for 2021

No real shock there. It is Hernandez' first year of arbitration so he wasn't going to get a crazy amount. I figure most players will want to settle as lord knows what will happen in a hearing with such a bizarre year as 2020 to base 2021's salary on.
uglyone - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:05 PM EST (#393341) #
Agreed, carrot.

The fear of an overpay seems pretty bizarre to me. Our payroll is very low. Our owners are very rich.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:11 PM EST (#393342) #
They’ve backed themselves into a Springer or bust scenario.
damos - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:14 PM EST (#393344) #
I'm just hoping that plugged in writers that cover the Mets are right. Guys like Dicomo & Martino keep saying the Mets won't exceed the luxury tax this year...that they want to keep 5-10 million set aside for in season improvements. They've got an awful lot to consider - are they extending Lindor? What are they going to do with home grown talent like Conforto? Then there's Thor & Stroman....Cano's big money comes back on the books next year. Are they going to win the bidding for Brad Hand? Lindor could be their face of the franchise if they lock him up, so are they going to dole out another massive contract when they've got so many other roster questions? Guess we'll soon see.
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:39 PM EST (#393345) #
Last year, an injury prone 34 y.o Josh Donaldson coming off 1 bounce-back year, got 4/92 from the Twins - LeMahieu, younger, less injury-prone and coming off 2 terrific years gets less - Kudos to the Yankees.
85bluejay - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:41 PM EST (#393346) #
I hope the Mets land Springer @ 6/150.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 01:59 PM EST (#393347) #
I also hope the front office "panics" and signs Realmuto or Bauer. No matter who they sign or trade for, I don't think this team has much chance going to the series without significant additions to the pitching.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 02:21 PM EST (#393348) #
I don't think LeMahieu was leaving the Yankees period, whether it was to go to Toronto or anywhere else.

The FO has already proven they will overpay to get a FA (Ryu). No other team was offering more than 3 years for him. It comes down to the level of risk they are willing to absorb. If the Jays are going to overpay for a free agent on a long-term deal (5+ years), then the player with the best chance to still be productive from 2023-25 (what should be the peak of the Jays contending window with this group) would be ideal. Out of the top remaining FA's, I'd lean towards Bauer using that criteria, but all of them present a risk to some extent. Springer shifting to RF in a year or two would mitigate some of his risk.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 02:57 PM EST (#393349) #
The question becomes is it a good or bad risk in the end. Ryu at $20 mil per was a bargain as pitchers of his quality go for over $30 mil, but injury worries brought him down despite a 2nd place Cy place the year before and a sub 2 ERA the year before that. 3 years for $80 would've been a good deal without the injury fears otherwise.

So who is like that this year? Hrm... James Paxton might be (lots of injury worries, but not the same track record), Taijuan Walker I still like and shouldn't be that expensive. Right now for deal of the winter Realmuto might end up being that due to a lack of teams willing to spend money needing him. Of course, all that changes if one team decides to go nuts on someone.

And in the 'let the jokes begin' category - the Rays will be trying to allow 7,000 fans in for each home game at the start of the season. I guess the question is can they find 7k fans for each game - they had 4 games with fewer than 7k in 2019 (plus 2 in Miami with under 7k). Funny thing is they won all of those 6 games. Meanwhile they lost 2 of their 3 home games with 25k+ in 2019. (peak was opening day vs Houston 25,025).
greenfrog - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:33 PM EST (#393350) #
The only non-move I'm disappointed about so far this off-season is not signing Kim, especially if he was seriously interested in coming to Toronto. The Padres acquired him at a good price, in my view.

Realmuto or Springer at 5/125, or Bauer at 5/150, would be good additions. Probably each player will obtain a bit more than that, though.

DJL was likely not coming to Toronto unless the Jays paid a significant premium, 5/$100m or something along those lines.
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:41 PM EST (#393351) #
If the team is going to risk money, I'd rather they do it on players in the organization than the big name free agents.  Signing Bichette and/or Guerrero Jr. and/or Biggio for a year or two beyond their free agency- sure.  Pulling a Longoria with Austin Martin with some more dollars attached- I'm good with that. 

I have no confidence that any of the big-name free agents will be significantly better than average in a couple of years. Probably one will be, but damned if I know which one.
bpoz - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:48 PM EST (#393352) #
I agree completely with SK. This team could/should be strongest in 2023,24,25. Nobody is really old.

Grichuk & Ryu would be old. Vlad & Jansen/Kirk/etc... have had time to peak or fail to peak/reach potential expected. Pearson and others have had time to become really good pitchers if they are able to. Otherwise find a V Good FA starter or trade.

We should be in our window of being very good. This would be the time to spend $ and trade prospect capital IF we want to give ourselves the chance to win it all.

Or don't spend crazy money and keep the prospects to stay reasonably competitive longer. I don't know the plan.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 03:51 PM EST (#393353) #
"I have no confidence that any of the big-name free agents will be significantly better than average in a couple of years. Probably one will be, but damned if I know which one."

I feel this same way about Vlad, Biggio and Bichette.

At this point it rather the Jays get DJ or Bauer and stop giving money to guys like Grichuk, Yamaguchi, Roark and Stripling. Overpay for the right players, skip the mediocre ones to compensate for having to overpay for the stars.

scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 04:09 PM EST (#393354) #
The Yankees seem hard set on staying below the tax line.
The Dodgers only offered 4/60 so maybe they don't budge from their 2 years offer for Turner.

The Yankees never extend their player until they reach free agency.
Too soon to extend any player.
The player have to want the extension and that won't happen if the team can't sign any decent free agents.

Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 04:21 PM EST (#393355) #
I'll take Bo Bichette's 2026 season (his first free agency year) over any of the free agents 2023 seasons.  In a heartbeat. 
scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:00 PM EST (#393356) #
What was the question?
Will the Jays have a prospect ready to take over shortstop in 2026?
Will Bichette be able to stay on the field over the next 5 years?

I haven't seen the Mets reaching agreement with Lindor, Conforto and Nimmo.
The ones they have signed have pushed their projected payroll up to 181M.

scottt - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:13 PM EST (#393357) #
Borucki, Jansen, Thornton, Tellez and Guerrero are the Jays reaching arbitration next year.
Unlike Bichette and Biggio, Guerrero is a super-2, but he hasn't put up the number to take advantage of it yet.
That should be his motivation this year.
Pearson, also a super-two, will hit arbitration at the same time as Bichette, Biggio and Romano.

The Jays are really ways from carrying big contracts that would keep them from extending anyone they want.


ayjackson - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:22 PM EST (#393358) #
I think Heyman tweeted that the Jays had offered 4 x $19.5m for LeMahieu.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 05:55 PM EST (#393359) #
Extensions to existing young talent + going with more shorter term free agents/trade acquisitions would be a very reasonable way to go. Not the most exciting way, and would certainly annoy a lot of fans who have been waiting for a big move, but far more likely to pay off in the end. I wouldn't be against it. A lot depends on what the price for Springer, Bauer, etc, ends up being. It's possible whatever offer the Jays have out there, which Springer may have considered too low months ago, might turn out to be what he ends up taking in the end. I think the FO has a number/valuation and won't go above it, and this is the market where waiting it might work (more so with Springer/Realmuto, less likely with Bauer who should have more options).
Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:16 PM EST (#393360) #
I agree with that, SK. I have no difficulty with a club in the Jays  position paying fair value for a free agent of the type available this year; it's the enthusiasm for overpaying for one that I don't agree with.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:32 PM EST (#393361) #
Mike,

If you had to overpay market value for Bichette or let him walk, what would you do? I'm sensing you don't like the free agents better because of their age at the end of the contract.

Also, how proven is Bo, Vlad or Pearson, really? Do you not think there is possibility of decline/ceiling?

Mike Green - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:42 PM EST (#393362) #
You are correct that they are not proven. Young players though on average improve and players over 30 on average decline.

I particularly like to bet on players aged 22-24 as the Rays did with Longoria. It doesn't always work out but often enough it works out spectacularly.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:47 PM EST (#393363) #
I'm thinking the Jays at this point are focusing more on short term guys, maybe Turner for 2-3 years as his dWAR is stable around 0 so he should be good at 3B for 2 or 3 more years (can't be worse on defense than Vlad even in 3 years). 2 years ideal but as we've seen in the past the Jays can trade guys before their contract runs out if need but would need to eat that 3rd year most likely. So the question is would he be worth $25 mil a year for 2 year or $50 over 3? I'd figure that is what it would take. I doubt it. Given the Dodgers reportedly offered a 2 year deal plus he is from that area I figure he will end up there in the end.

Kris Bryant via trade is very tempting - he agreed to $19.5 mil for 2021 and is a free agent after that. So a one year look and see then decide if they want to commit long term or not. Odds are they'd want low minors high upside talent as that is mostly what they got for Darvish. Which matches what the Jays have really. Big risk there but might be the best solution.

Evan Longoria in SF is very tempting if they want to save some money in that nuclear division (SD & LA nearly locks for playoff slots) - he is getting old but still is talented, around a 100 OPS+ and just over 0 dWAR each year. Plus has lots of playoff experience and AL East experience.

Of course, there is always Colorado who has Story (SS who is a free agent after 2021) and super expensive but super talented Nolan Arenado.

I'm sure there are lots of other options. Such as Semien do you move Bo to put him in place? Didi Gregorius is the same situation. Neither as valuable at 3B as at SS. Could bring back Eric Sogard and see if the magic he had here comes back. Todd Frazier would be a short term fix at best, Marwin Gonzalez had a horrid year with the bat but can play almost anywhere (something the club loves), Brock Holt was a decent hitter in 2018/9 but horrid last year, Maikel Franco is tempting as he played all 60 games last year with a 109 OPS+ and 0.0 dWAR at 3B (ie: not a liability with the glove) but the Royals cut him anyways (penny pinching).

So looking at those options I'd guess the Jays will keep chasing Turner but that will be a LeMahieu situation I'd bet (just driving up the price), trades are a crapshoot (Jays don't want to give up anything) so I'm thinking they might go for Franco (should be cheap, short term, decent) and blow a wad on someone else. Realmuto now has a decent offer from the Phillies (5 years $100 mil reports say) so he is probably off the list, leaving Springer and Bauer of the top free agents. Depending on how the Mets feel about their budget I'd put Springer as the most likely to come here, but no better than 50-50.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 06:50 PM EST (#393364) #
I think you're over simplifying everything. The biggest benefit to signing elite free agents to contracts that over pay them and involve declining years at the end is simple... it means you can build an elite team without giving up prospects like Groshans, Kirk, SWR and Manoah. If they Jays passed on someone like Bauer or DJ because the contract will look like an anchor in year 5 or 6, what do you think they will do next? They're going to turn around and trade Groans, Kirk and someone else for an elite player via trade. Probably with an anchor contract coming back as well (think Castillo/Moustakas).

I think the FO signs their young core long term in any case anyways...more reason to go get one of the top remaining free agents.
greenfrog - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:29 PM EST (#393365) #
One reason I was disappointed in the Jays not landing Kim is that the opportunity cost of adding players like him (and Gurriel Jr.) is so low. You get a young, talented player with a good track record at a reasonable price. No draft picks or IFA cap space need be given up. If the player doesn’t work out, and you have a reasonably large payroll (which the Jays ought to have), it’s not a big deal. You’re building a strong diversified portfolio of talent and having some of your investments not work out is a normal part of a winning strategy.

I would rather spend what it cost to acquire Kim than “shore up” the team with relatively high-cost, middling talents like Grichuk, Roark and Anderson.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:37 PM EST (#393366) #
Brian Cashman living up to his name once again...Kluber to Yankees (I had to re-type Kluber 6 times for my phone to not Auto correct).
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:39 PM EST (#393367) #
"I would rather spend what it cost to acquire Kim than “shore up” the team with relatively high-cost, middling talents like Grichuk, Roark and Anderson."

We already have Yamaguchi. Add Kim, and if he flops then those two become more of an expense than Grichuk, Roark and Anderson.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:48 PM EST (#393368) #
Kluber is done, that moves seems desperate for the Yanks.
Eephus - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 07:57 PM EST (#393369) #
Kluber is definitely a tantalizing gamble, but the odds of him finding a return to his stellar form seem about even (potentially much less) as him barely being able to pitch a dozen innings in 2021. Some guys make it back, some never do.

Of course it's the Yankees, so watch him make 30 starts and get Cy Young votes. It's better to be lucky than good, especially when gambling.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 08:12 PM EST (#393370) #
Well he's going to make $1,000,000 less than Roark this year...
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 08:42 PM EST (#393371) #
So $11 million for 1 year of a guy who is in his age 35 season, off a 2 year stretch where he threw 36 2/3 IP 3.9 BB/9 vs 9.6 K/9 86 ERA+. Yeah, he was all-world before that but for comparison, Roy Halladay at 35 had a 90 ERA+ after a 2nd place Cy year (preceded by a Cy award) and was done at 36. So I'd put the odds of this working well for the Yankees as quite low. Maybe they do a CC Sabathia thing - low innings per start, longer rest between starts, anything to try to let the arm recover. Might work but I wouldn't bet on it. The Yankees budget is now done for 2021 unless they make trades (assuming they are trying to stay under the Luxury Tax level).

If I was with the Jays I'd be calling Masahiro Tanaka's agent tonight and seeing if he can be convinced to come here now that it is clear he won't be back in NY. Of course, any team with $10+ mil available will be doing that too.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 08:59 PM EST (#393372) #
Tank has already stated it's NYY or bust for him. He will likely go to Japan, further driving up the market for Bauer.

Halladay ripped his back up while pitching in the playoffs, no hitters and perfect games. He should have gone on the DL but instead went on pain killers and pitched through it. It ultimately cut his career short and created an addiction. The injury during the playoffs that triggered everything else is well documented. He didn't randomly fall off a cliff.

Guys like Halladay and Tulowitzki are exceptions. For sure, there are declines, fast declines to players in their 30's and it's the norm, but these two "on pace for hall of fame" (at the time) players literally went from 100 to 0 in the span of a season and a half. Both suffered through major debilitating injuries. For Halladay it was his back and for Tulo his hips, legs then the nail in the coffin was the ankle.
johnny was - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 09:43 PM EST (#393373) #
If the poll at left had a "none of the above" option, I can think of two very important people in Bluejayland who would've ticked it.


dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:15 PM EST (#393374) #
Okay, updated prediction from me in light of the developments from the last week.

Springer goes to NYM via a longer term deal to keep the yearly salary below the luxury tax.

JT Realmuto goes to the Phillies

Toronto throws all its cash at Trevor Bauer

Toronto signs Tommy La Stella

Toronto trades Alejandro Kirk for Joe Musgrove or signs Jake Ororizzi

Toronto trades for Starting Marty
Thomas - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:56 PM EST (#393375) #

I had no idea this was Corbin Martin's nickname.

Thomas - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 10:57 PM EST (#393376) #
Toronto trades for Starting Marty

I had no idea this was Corbin Martin's nickname.

dalimon5 - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:04 PM EST (#393377) #
Lol. Auto correct. Whenever I'm posting from android mobile there are typos that are very difficult to correct. Sorry about that.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:16 PM EST (#393378) #
Halladay & Tulo exceptions? Not really. Lets look at some teams...
  • 1985 Jays: Outfield of the 80's were all done by age 33 season (Bell/Moseby/Barfield); also done by 35 most of the infield (Mulliniks, Garcia, Upshaw, Fernandez lasted a bit longer); hotshot kid Cecil Fielder (done at 34); pitching you had Stieb (done at 35, comeback at 40 for 50 IP); Key made it to 37; Clancy 35; Leal done at 28; Bill Caudill (closer at start of 85 - done at 30);
  • 1992 Jays: Olerud done at 36; Alomar done at 36 (last good year was 33, then negative WAR for 34-36); Manny Lee (1 PA at 30); Gruber (all star at 28, done at 31); Candy Maldonado (done at 34); Joe Carter (last good year was age 33, 34 was last positive WAR season, but hang on anyways due to RBI's); Derek Bell was the hotshot kid that year (done at 32); Ed Sprague also a hotshot (done at 33); Juan Guzman (done at 33 with just 1 game that year);
I think you get the idea. 2 of the best teams in Jays history and both stacked with All-Stars who didn't make it to their late 30's (or barely did and should've retired earlier). Blown out arms, odd injuries (Gruber was a neck one), etc. but that is the risk you take with players as they get older - more potential issues. It is guys like Dave Winfield & Nolan Ryan who make it to 40 who are the exception, not Tulo & Halladay who couldn't. I didn't include oddities like Tony Fernandez (one of my favorites) who had an amazing age 36/37 with his best 2 OPS+ seasons (late 90's so put an * beside them, negative defensive value too) then was off to Japan and only a PH after that. Ugh. Also of note: Shawn Green done at 34, Fred McGriff held on desperately to try to get to 500 HR but came up 7 shy (ouch), Delgado 27 short. There is no magic. Age gets these guys, no matter how much they try to avoid it. For every Rickey Henderson there are dozens of guys like Manny Lee. For every Nolan Ryan you get dozens if not hundreds who blow their arms out by their early 30's (Juan Guzman). It is a big risk to sign guys at 32. Any study on players at that age and beyond will show you a drastic decline after that. Those who survive do well, but that is survivor bias. Far more end than keep going.
John Northey - Friday, January 15 2021 @ 11:30 PM EST (#393379) #
Right now I'm not sure what the Jays will do. They will keep chasing big targets, but lord knows if they will get any. Hitting the tough stage of a rebuild - when you have decent parts everywhere and no 'we must' areas or it is very hard to fix those areas. Prospects close at 3B/CF/SP/RP which messes up plans sorta too - don't want to block the kids who might produce better than a vet for a much lower price. But also don't want to count on them. Wonder what other teams are offering Bauer - might help understand if he is possible or not. The Jays management team is very careful not to overextend themselves long term, or take risks that might look dumb in a year. I could see giving Springer or Bauer a year more than others are offering in order to cross that finish line like they did with Ryu last year. I'm kind of glad they didn't with LeMahieu as he seems a product of playing in NY which you don't want to spend on then regret. Kim I really wanted them to get, but understand their not wanting to guarantee a ML slot for him. Lindor would've been a fortune for 1 year of potential wow, rarely worth it.
subculture - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 02:02 AM EST (#393380) #
Completely agree, there is always a risk but in this case it was just cash and relatively small amount for a potential impact player. And IF the Jays had to overpay for him (though reports seemed to indicate otherwise), it would be a tiny amount compared to the overpay they will make IF they can sign Springer or Bauer.

I’m skeptical now they will be able to make that happen, but hope they can bring back Walker or Paxton, as both have a Toronto connection. Improved pitching will probably make a bigger difference than a position player anyways.
subculture - Saturday, January 16 2021 @ 02:04 AM EST (#393381) #
Hmmn meant to indicate I was agreeing with Greenfrog with my comment.
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