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The Pittsburgh Pirates took Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the first overall pick of the 2021 Major League Baseball Draft. Vanderbilt righty Jack Leiter was taken second by Texas while Oklahoma high school hurler Jackson Jobe went third to Detroit. Marcelo Mayer—considered by many to be the best prospect in the draft—slipped all the way to Boston at number four and outfielder Colton Cowser from Sam Houston State went to Baltimore with pick number five.

The Toronto Blue Jays hold the 19th pick in this year's draft. Find out below the fold who they selected.

Check out the draft tracker or watch it live.

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Round 1 - 19th overall. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi. Bats Left, Throws Right . 6-foot-4, 220 lbs. Born December 17, 1999. Slot Value $3.36 million. - The Pirates made Hoglund a supplemental first-round pick (36th overall) in 2018, but the two sides had differing views of his post-Draft physical, which killed any chances of a deal. He instead opted to attend Mississippi, where he immediately joined the weekend rotation and emerged as one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference in 2020 and 2021. He had pitched himself into the top 10 picks of this year's Draft until he injured his elbow in May and required Tommy John surgery. Hoglund's stuff plateaued in his first two college seasons, as he showed the same 89-93 mph riding fastball and average breaking ball that he had in high school. His stuff ticked up last fall, however, and he now works at 92-95 for five innings at a time and displays a tighter, harder slider at 84-86. His low-80s changeup serves as a solid third pitch and he can give batters a different look by dusting off a curveball he relied on more as a prepster. With a durable 6-foot-4 frame, an easy delivery and a history of quality strikes, Hoglund already had a high floor as a back-of-the-rotation starter. His improved stuff still could land him in the first round despite his elbow reconstruction. Multiple scouts have likened him to a bigger version of Tanner Burns, another SEC right-hander whom the Indians drafted 36th overall last June. Video

Jim Callis, - Nice upside play for the Blue Jays here. Hoglund would've been a top-10 pick if he hadn't blown out his elbow in May and required Tommy John surgery. He has a quality fastball and slider and some of the best command in the college ranks. His situation reminds me a little of what Walker Buehler went through. Buehler had his elbow reconstructed shortly after the Dodgers made him a first-round pick in 2015, and then saw his stuff dramatically improve after he went through the rehab process. If that happens with Hoglund, this could be one of the best picks of the Draft.

Baseball America - A supplemental first-round pick of the Pirates in 2018 after he went 7-0, 0.27 at Fivay High in Hudson, Fla., Hoglund’s command has long stood out. It made him an immediate contributor at Ole Miss, and it has helped him be one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference in 2020 and 2021. Hoglund’s 2021 season came to a premature end when he blew out his pitching elbow in his May 7 start against Texas A&M. His rehab from Tommy John surgery means he’ll be sidelined until midway through 2022, and it likely ended any chance he had of being a top-10 pick. But Hoglund’s body of work (154 innings in three years at Ole Miss) gives teams a lot of comfort with who Hoglund is—a relatively safe starting pitcher with plus command who has the ability to throw three pitches for strikes no matter what the count. Hoglund came into 2021 viewed as a starter likely to be taken in the back of the first round, but he quickly showed improved stuff. Hoglund had touched 95 mph going back to high school, but he generally sat 90-92. This year, he sat 92-94 mph. His slider got a little harder and sharper as well. Hoglund has shown he can spot his above-average fastball to the arm side or glove side, but he generally aims to keep his fastball away—he’ll work glove side to righthanders and arm side to lefties. He consistently wins at 0-0 in the count, getting ahead which means he can then attack righties with his above-average, 80-84 mph slider, again generally staying away. Lefties have to worry about his low-80s, above-average changeup, but he’s also shown he’s comfortable working in on their hands with his slider. It’s that ability to spot all three pitches and avoid the heart of the plate that is key to his success. Even after his elbow injury, he’s seen as a low-risk surefire starter with a consistent, easy delivery.

Twitter Reaction

Scott Mitchell @ScottyMitchTSN With pick No. 19, #BlueJays select Ole Miss right-hander Gunnar Hoglund. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder had TJ surgery recently, but was seen as a consensus top 10 talent when healthy. Jays rolling the dice on big time upside here.

Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi Blue Jays select Ole Miss right-hander Gunnar Hoglund at No. 19. He had Tommy John surgery after blowing out his elbow back in May. Here are @BaseballAmerica's scouting grades for him: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 70

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith By drafting Gunnar Hoglund, a right-handed pitcher who's now recovering from Tommy John surgery, the #BlueJays add some balance to an organization already stocked with young position players, both on the MLB roster and in the upper levels of the minor leagues

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith Gunnar Hoglund is a 21-year-old right-hander who ranked 22nd on MLB's list of top draft-eligible prospects. Listed at 6'4", 220 Lbs. Good scouting grades across the board. Pirates took him in the first round 3 years ago but he didn't sign. Elbow injury in May. Recovering from TJ Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith Considering Hoglund's just beginning his recovery from Tommy John, this isn't a pick designed to pay immediate dividends (Though let's be honest: this is the MLB draft we're talking about... if you're looking for immediate dividends you're doing it wrong)

Kristian Croissant @Krossiant they compared kumar rocker to bob gibson & compared gunnar hoglund to MATT ALBERS!?!?!?

Jason (Hanshin) Lee @Jasons_JaysHub The #BlueJays will select Gunnar Hoglund with the 19th pick in the 2021 #MLBDraft. [numerous writers] Hoglund, a right-handed starter, was considered a consensus Top 10 pick before his stock dropped after Tommy John. A big risk that could end up producing a big reward.

@mason_mcrae Back to back years of outstanding value in the first round by Toronto. This is a great, extremely safe pick.

Scott BlueJaysAlways @BluejaysAlways With the 19th pick of the 2021 #MLBDraft our #BlueJays have selected RHP Gunnar Hoglund from Mississippi! Had TJ surgery in May, otherwise he would have gone in the top 10. He has a fastball, slider, and a changeup are all considered plus pitches. #BlueGrit #WeAreBlueJays

Jeffmlbdraft @jeffMLBdraft Hoglund would have been a top 10 pick if healthy, really nice value right there for the Blue Jays. I had him 19th on my board.

Keanan Lamb @keananlamb RHP Gunnar Hoglund was a top 10 pick before TJ surgery this spring. Good stuff, very good command, ideal body. #BlueJays getting the no. 9 #MLBDraft prospect on my board

Nathan Hutchinson @hutch1760 Thoughts on Gunnar Hoglund Pick. Excellent value, of course an arm injury scary but he moves so well and has such good feel for pitching. Great Pick IMO

Prospect Wire @ProspectWire Congrats to @GunnarHoglund on his 1st round (19th overall) of the @BlueJays A staple at PW events over the years when in HS. Best of luck as your career advances to the next level. Quote Tweet @ProspectWire · Jun 4, 2018 Gunnar Hoglund came through several events as a 2-way prospect. Although he could swing the bat - hitting several bombs at PW events - it became evident that throwing strikes is too easy for Hoglund. Powerful frame, plus command of everything, workhorse potential. #MLBDraft

Doug Young @the_field_guy Anyone who has had the pleasure of meeting this young man knows the @BlueJays got a steal! Wonderful, humble young man, fierce competitor that will not be outworked ! Congratulations @GunnarHoglund @BaseballFivay @MLB #FalconPride

Mitch Bannon @MitchBannon Early reactions to the #BlueJays first round pick, RHP Gunnar Hoglund. Things to know: - Four pitch mix (FB, SL, CU, CH) - Had TJ surgery in May (12-15 month recovery) - 3.68 ERA in 32 NCAA starts, 10.9 K/9 - Elite control (2.0 BB/9 at Ole Miss)

RapsLeafsJays @RapsLeafsJays The Toronto Blue Jays love injury-riddled pitchers so much, they drafted a kid who’s out with Tommy John surgery and may not be back until late 2022/early 2023. Gunnar Hoglund apparently has wicked command & 4 good pitches. Let’s hope the injured 21-year old is worth the wait!

Justin Bench @JBench_2 Let’s go brother! Best freshman roommate out there!! @GunnarHoglund

Scott MacArthur @ScottyMacThinks I hope Jonas throws out the ceremonial first pitch before Gunnar Hoglund’s MLB debut.

Jon Sokoloff @JonSokoloff Gunnar Hoglund is the third-highest drafted player in @OleMissBSB history. 1.) Drew Pomeranz (LHP- 5th overall, 2010) 2.) Dan Adams (3B- 8th overall, 1970) 3.) Gunnar Hoglund (RHP- 19th overall, 2021)

Pramana @PramanaLabs Gunnar Hoglund becomes the 1st RHP from @OleMissBSB drafted in the first round. The highest taken prior to Gunnar was Will Kline in 2007 to the Toronto Blue Jays with the 65th pick. #PramanaSHIFT @BaseballAmerica

Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi #BlueJays scouting director Shane Farrell on first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund: “We’re really excited about how it shook out for us. His trajectory along the year – he was pitching his way into a top-10 pick. Unfortunately the injury kind of derailed that a little bit."

Replying to @ShiDavidi Shane Farrell on the tool-kit that was carrying Hoglund up the draft board before his injury: "It's the completeness of the package. He's a strong physical kid with really above average control and command of his fastball and an above average slider as well."

Replying to @ShiDavidi Farrell continued: "We saw a little pick up in fastball velocity this year. Combining that with his upper level ability to command the ball to both sides of the plate and throw the slider off the fastball is what really drove us to make the selection."

Brennan Delaney @Brennan_L_D Replying to @ShiDavidi He wouldn't impact the team until about 2023-2024 anyway. Tommy John will only help improve velo. His control is already insane (70 grade according to BA). With TJ, he may be an underslot, meaning they get more money for mid round picks. Fantastic pick.

Mitch Bannon @MitchBannon Negotiations will now begin with the #BlueJays first round pick Gunnar Hoglund. He was drafted in 2018 by the Pirates in the 1st comp round, but failed to come to terms. Jim Callis said, at the time, the Pirates and Hoglund's camp had "differing views of post-draft physicals"

Mitch Bannon @MitchBannon #BlueJays Director of Amateur Scouting Shane Farrell on first round pick RHP Gunnar Hoglund: “One of the main drivers was just how polished he was as a pitcher. We feel like this is a very opportunist pick for us as an organization, knowing the trend he was going on.”

Jason (Hanshin) Lee @Jasons_JaysHub Beautiful slider from new #BlueJays pitcher Gunnar Hoglund featured by @PitchingNinja. A high-risk, high-reward selection. Welcome @GunnarHoglund to Canada!

bk @_bkuh_Gunnar Hoglund, Blue Jays pick at 19. Board Rankings: ESPN 20 FG 14 BA 19 Athletic 30 Pipeline 22

Baseball America @BaseballAmerica Two pitchers have 70-grade control among the Top 200 in this draft class. Gunnar Hoglund, @OleMissBSB. Michael McGreevy, @UCSB_Baseball

Kendall Rogers @KendallRogers With the @BlueJays taking @OleMissBSB RHP Gunnar Hoglund. Here’s my piece from one of his best starts this season — on becoming a complete pitcher. Easy velocity, SL is a big-time pitch at times. Player Profile:

Brian Sakowski @B_Sakowski_PG 19. Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss. Top 10 pick pretty easily prior to late-season TJ, love the value here, FB into mid-90’s with potentially plus SL, CB/CH both solid-average, throws strikes and mixes well, mid rotation upside IMO. #PGDraft

ProPlayAI @proplayai The @BlueJays take Gunnar Hoglund with the 19th pick! You know he's going to throw FireFireFire from working with @Kinetic_Pro. When he’s back - he will put his above average arm speed (23m/s) and great stride length (94%) on display.

David Salituro @DavidSalituro The last two pitchers drafted in the first round out of Ole Miss: Drew Pomeranz (2010) and Lance Lynn (2008). Add Gunnar Hoglund to that list as he joins the #BlueJays. #MLBDraft

Gunnar Hoglund @GunnarHoglund Thank you to the Toronto Blue Jays for making my dream become reality!

2021 MLB Draft - Day 1 | 41 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#402287) #
Kevin Goldstein on FG chat:

9:24 what happen to Ty Madden?

Kevin Goldstein
9:24 I'm baffled.
Gerry - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#402288) #
I guess we wont see him in the minors until this time next year.

Many experts expect that college pitchers drafted today might not pitch this season due to college workloads. So he will lose about three months of playing time, plus the fact that he has had TJ.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#402289) #
Hoglund seems like a decent pick, but everything depends on whether he comes back strong from TJ. If he doesn't, he could be the next Deck McGuire or Jeff Hoffman.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#402290) #
Thanks for the new thread. Certainly an interesting 1st round overall. No major opinions on Hoglund, although it's hard to hear "high floor" without having flashbacks of Jenkins and McGuire. Wish him the best!
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#402291) #

19. Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
Nice upside play for the Blue Jays here. Hoglund would've been a top-10 pick if he hadn't blown out his elbow in May and required Tommy John surgery. He has a quality fastball and slider and some of the best command in the college ranks. His situation reminds me a little of what Walker Buehler went through. Buehler had his elbow reconstructed shortly after the Dodgers made him a first-round pick in 2015, and then saw his stuff dramatically improve after he went through the rehab process. If that happens with Hoglund, this could be one of the best picks of the Draft. -- Callis
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#402292) #
I don’t like drafting injured pitchers, especially after his failed physical with the Pirates in 2018. Overall though he dominated the SEC, has respectable stuff and likely has the best command of any Jays pitcher taken in the top 3 rounds in a decade. If he is healthy he will be good, but I don’t like betting on health.

I would have probably went with Jordan Wicks, who had a similar profile but was left handed. I would trade the fact he played in a worse conference for a clean bill of health.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#402293) #
Kiley Mc Daniel ESPN:

Locked to go in the top 10 picks (above-average stuff, plus command, great performance) until undergoing Tommy John surgery this spring, but still likely goes by the 20th pick.


Hoglund was many scout's favorite non-first round prep projection arm for 2018: up to 96, average off-speed stuff, but a clean delivery and frame with room to grow. He didn't sign as a comp pick of the Pirates and instead went to Ole Miss. He had growing pains as a freshman, but looked crisp in the fall of 2019, which was the start of his ascent to legitimate college ace. Through 2021 Hoglund was arguably the most polished college arm in the class, sitting in the low-90s, while dotting a plus slider on the corner with remarkable consistency. Healthy Hoglund has the best command in this draft. His fastball's tailing action garners looking strikes on the glove-side corner and sets up Hoglund's changeup, which needs to develop. Toward the ends of a dominant 2021, Hoglund looked awkward and uncomfortable warming up for a start and was removed from it early on. He would need Tommy John. We look at his rehab as an opportunity to rework a softer build and maybe exit the process with more velocity. TJ rehab or not, Hoglund has a great chance to be one of the first players from this class to reach the big leagues because of how advanced he is.
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#402295) #
I'm good - anytime you have a pick as low as 19 and have a shot at a guy with top 10 talent you take it. 40 of 56 19th overall picks have reached, 1 HOF (Clemens), 1 near HOF (Grich), 3 more in the 20's, 2 more in the 10's. So 7 of 56 that produced enough to make one notice. 8 more in the 5-9.9 range. Matt Barnes I expect to be in the 5+ category before 2021 is over, and 10+ someday. But 10th overall gets you 3 50+ WAR guys, 3 more in the 30's, 5 more in the 20's, 5 more in the 10's, 2 more in 5-9.9 range. 46 of 56 reaching. Much better odds of a star calibre player.

Yeah, take a health risk. All pitchers are one throw from ending their careers anyways so why not? With no 2nd round pick a risk isn't a bad idea especially since it will probably reduce his bonus demands, thus giving room to do better in rounds 3 and beyond.
Glevin - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#402296) #
Generally like the pick because Hoglund seems very advanced. If he comes out of TJ rehab with an extra mile or three on his fastball, that would be amazing. Anyways, you can never have too many pitching prospects.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#402297) #
On the plus side, the Jays and Hoglund's camp won't have much argument about his medicals.
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#402298) #
I like that the Yankees took a guy MLB ranked 55th, the O's 10th (MLB's site adjusted it from earlier) with the 5th overall pick, sadly Boston got the #1 ranked guy, we'll see on the Rays but with the Rays I feel like they could take the 100th ranked guy and he'd be a stud for them.
John Northey - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#402300) #
Rays took a guy ranked #41 by MLB with the 28th pick. Funny. Now he'll become a star given how things go with them.
uglyone - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#402305) #
Top-10 talent that dropped due to an injury with extremely high recovery rates? Beautiful. Great pick IMO.

I wouldn't worry about comparisons to guys like Hoffman or McGuire - those guys never had neae the elite K rates that Hoglund has. I never really had any idea why Hoffman was rated so highly with such mediocre numbers.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#402306) #
More from ESPN, this time from Schoenfield

Who is Hoglund? A supplemental first-round pick by the Pirates out of high school (36th overall), Hoglund ended up at Mississippi due to concerns about his post-draft physical. He looked like a potential top-five overall pick early this season, before injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery. Before the injury, his velocity had ticked up from his first two years in college, sitting 93-96, and all four of his pitches graded out as 55s or higher. If he bounces back, he could be a steal -- think of the Dodgers taking Walker Buehler 24th overall in 2015.

Why the Blue Jays took him here: his is a good roll of the dice by the Blue Jays, as Hoglund would have gone higher if he had been healthy. Before going down, Hoglund had fanned 96 in 62 2/3 innings, so there is a potential high-ceiling strikeout pitcher here if he bounces back.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#402307) #
I think it was Goldstein in a recent chat who reminded readers not to overstate the success rate of TJ surgery (not just returning to pitching, but excelling and staying healthy). It doesn’t always work out. And even where it does work out, it can reduce the pitcher’s longevity.
uglyone - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#402308) #
At the same time, don't ever overstate how healthy any pitching prospect is that HASN'T had TJ surgery yet.

I pretty much expect every pitcher to get it at some point, so getting it over with early can be a good thingm
greenfrog - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#402309) #
I prefer Goldstein’s more cautious (less casual) point of view on this issue.
hypobole - Sunday, July 11 2021 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#402310) #
I pretty much expect every pitcher to get it at some point, so getting it over with early can be a good thing

The earlier you have TJ, the greater chance you have of needing it again.
scottt - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#402311) #
This looks like an excellent pick.

Hoffman had an average fastball, a great curve, a below average change and a below average slider along with average control and poor command.

This guy has plus fastball, plus slider, plus change and average curve along with plus plus command.

Fits a glaring need, should be easy to sign and there could be enough savings to be aggressive in the next 2 days.

John Northey - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#402312) #
If he really is a top 5 level talent skipping surgery then he is a very excellent pick by the Jays.  5th overall picks who were pitchers who had 10+ WAR are Dwight Gooden, Kent Mercker, Drew Pomeranz , Jack McDowell, Brandon Morrow, 25 drafted, 5 at the level I consider a success, 13 more reached the majors.  IE: if he is that good for real the Jays have a 1 in 5 chance of him being a very good pitcher, well over a 50-50 shot of him reaching.  For the 19th pick there is Roger Clemens, Andrew Cashner, and 18 others who reached the majors, with 3 others never making it (20 of 23 making it).  So 1 super wow, 1 solid, and a lot of 'meh'.  So I'd say if he really is a top 5 level talent but knocked down due to the TJ then he is a very good risk vs what else the Jays might have gotten. IMO you should always swing for the fences in the draft - go for the best possible player who might be a star.  You can always find backups via free agency, via later draft picks, etc.  But stars at a low price are hard to find unless you draft them.  Especially pitchers.
John Northey - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#402313) #
FYI: For those wanting to feel old - guys were drafted who were born in 2003.  That was the year Halladay won his first Cy Young award and Delgado was 31 years old and had just 1 more year here left, Vernon Wells was in his 2nd full season, the Jays top prospect after the season was Alex Rios.  The Jays pick as born December 17th, 1999 - Roy Halladay had yet to have his 10.49 ERA season at that point.  Of course, IFA's signed this year will be 16 thus born in 2004/2005.  Ouch.  Ah well, us old guys still have Tony LaRussa out there (age 76) so that helps.  Pujols is the oldest guy in the majors born in 1980.  Youngest we just saw this weekend in Franco who was born in 2001.  Him and Luis Garcia (2B for Washington) are the only ML'ers born in the 2000's at the moment.
John Northey - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 03:33 AM EDT (#402314) #
Of note for day 2...
  • Top undrafted (via MLB draft boards) #17 Anthony Solometo, a LHP high schooler.
  • Number of guys in the top 30 not drafted: 7
  • Lowest rank that was drafted: #84 Cooper Kinney, a 2B out of high school by the Rays (pick #34 - their competitive balance pick thanks to being in a market that hates ML in a small market).
  • 1 high school junior picked, 18 HS seniors, 1 4YR seniors, 2 4YR sophomore, 14 4YR juniors.
  • Position: 11 SS, 2 2B, 4 CA, 4 OF, 3 LHP, 12 RHP
  • Canadian: Tyler Black 2B by Milwaukee with the 33rd pick (competitive balance pick) - from Toronto.
scottt - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 06:52 AM EDT (#402316) #
The Rays are not particularly good at drafting, just at trading their young players for top prospects.
Lowe and Kiermaier and the only position players they drafted.
Flemings and Mclananhan on the pitching side.

Baltimore's front office keeps drafting under slot at the top, so they have more money later.
Yankees went for an untested hitter who does not profile as a good defender. Meh.

85bluejay - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#402317) #
A big thumbs up from me and I'm not that surprised at the pick - I heard Shapiro mention in an interview (can't remember when) something about Cleveland being leaders in a new trend of acquiring pitching with excellent command and then trying to develop increased velocity. Yes, TJ surgery is still risky and Hoffman turned out to be a miss but picking 19th, I like the aggressive gamble and he should be a fast mover.
Paul D - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#402318) #
Tyler Black is Rod Black's son.
85bluejay - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#402319) #
Detroit is building quite a collection of highly regarded pitching prospects.
whiterasta80 - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#402320) #
Big fan of drafting someone with a 70 command grade.

Will have to wait and see about health but if the command remains after he comes back then I think that is something to bet on. 

scottt - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#402321) #
Detroit has been rebuilding for a while. 
Picked 3rd and 32nd in 2021.
Picked 1st in 2020.
Picked 5th in 2019.
Picked 1st in 2018.
Picked 18th in 2017.

As it stands, they would be picking 8th in 2022, but they'll be sellers at the deadline and could easily end in the top 5 again.

Baltimore tanked between 2000 and 2012 and got Chris Smith, Adam Loewen, Nick Markakis, Wade Townsend, Brandon Snyder,  Billy Rowell, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Matt Hobgood, Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy, and Kevin Gausman.

If they follow the same pattern, they could be selecting early until the Jay's window closes.

bpoz - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#402325) #
We know for sure that many, maybe half will amount to little to nothing.

Hoglund has control so he will not be like H Perez.

Hoglund's stuff is better than Zeuch. Zeuch is making adjustments to succeed VS ML hitters. I think he is trying to get more Ks. His walks are pretty good. He needs to make his whole package work against ML hitters.

So Hoglund has a chance. Command and control will be good but can he get the Ks when he needs them? How hard will he be hit? Can he last until the 7,8,9 inning?
uglyone - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#402326) #

Age 21

Hoglund: 38.9k%, 6.9b%
Zeuch: 25.5k%, 6.6b%
Hoffman: 25.9k%, 7.2b%

Age 20

Hoglund: 38.4k%, 4.3b%
Zeuch: 23.1k%, 6.4b%
Hoffman: 17.8k%, 8.3b%

Hoglund is a clear tier or 3 above those guys. Don't have to worry about those comps whatsoever.
Glevin - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#402327) #
Matt Collier who runs a statistical model called FABIO (worth following if you're into nerdy stats on twitter) really likes Hoglund. Thinks he's comparable to Leiter (actually, ahead of Leiter even with TJS) with more control and less singles avoidance. Anyway, pitchers are crapshoots but looks like a lot to like with the pick.
uglyone - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#402331) #
Add in Manoah:


Age 21

Hoglund: 38.9k%, 6.9b%
Manoah: 33.4k%, 6.3b%
Zeuch: 25.5k%, 6.6b%
Hoffman: 25.9k%, 7.2b%

Age 20

Hoglund: 38.4k%, 4.3b%
Manoah: 23.3k%, 10.9b%
Zeuch: 23.1k%, 6.4b%
Hoffman: 17.8k%, 8.3b%
scottt - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#402332) #
Zeuch's biggest problem is dealing with left bats.

vs RHB .226 .284 .484
vs LHB .333 .442 .472

Imagine facing Tampa and 8 left bats.

Zeuch is a sinker/slider pitcher. His stuff only works in the bottom of the zone and he has little to get lefty out.

Hoglund's fastball is described as tailing, he can throw it on both sides and he's got a good change and a curve.
He looks a lot more like Manoah than like Zeuch.

hypobole - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#402335) #
uo, one other point to add to your stats is quality of competition.

Hoglund pitched in the SEC, the best college conference traditionally and this past year as well. Zeuch was ACC, a top 3 conference. Manoah was Big 12, another top 3 conference. Hoffman was Conference USA, ranked #8 his senior year. So Hoffman faced weaker/much weaker batters than the other 3.
bpoz - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#402336) #
Very nice comps for Hoglund to compete against. I don't mind Manoah being added to the list.

IMO Manoah is great SSS alert. What he did in 2019 while in Vancouver for me means nothing much even though he was quite great. Sorry for not being generous to him. 2021 however in AAA, again SSS but he showed that he was not going to learn/progress much by staying in AAA. Some may say that he did well at the ML level but they would have to understand stats to prove this. I think that Manoah was inconsistent in the ML and I would like a larger sample size than the following. Jun2 VS Miami 4 Er in 3.1 IP. Jun 19 VS Baltimore 5 Er 3.1 IP. Jul 9 VS TB 2 ER 3.2 IP (I am willing to call this OK/good) but I must say that I consider I am being generous.
85bluejay - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#402339) #
Another point to consider is that this year, Hoglund was pitching with a damaged ligament - Also hope Hoglund's rehab allows the team to get him into better physical shape as he is said to be soft and maybe that improves his velocity.
Cynicalguy - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#402342) #
One cautionary part of Hoglund's numbers, he hasn't thrown that many innings:

2019: 68.0
2020: 23.1
2021: 62.2

Hoffman threw 109.0 innings the year before he was drafted. He also seems to have performed well at the Cape Cod League with higher strike out numbers. I also recall his stuff being described as having upper 90's fastball at the time of being picked. These were probably what led to Hoffman's hype.
85bluejay - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#402344) #
For me, Hoglund not throwing many innings is a plus as I'm weary of young pitchers throwing too much.
scottt - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#402346) #
Hoffman was touching mid-90s. It was a basically a down year for pitching.
1st Brady Aiken LHP,
2nd Tyler Kolek RHP,
3rd Carlos Rodon LHP,
7th Aaron Nola RHP,
8th Kyle Freeland LHP,
9th Jeff Hoffman
12th Kodi Medeiros LHP,
14th Tyler Beede RHP,
15th Sean Newcomb LHP,
16th Touki Toussaint RHP,
17th Brandon Finnegan LHP,
18th Erick Fedde RHP
19th Nick Howard RHP,
22nd Grant Homes RHP,
27th Luke Weaver RHP,
28th Foster Griffin LHP,
30th Luis Ortiz RHP,
31sth Justus Sheffield LHP,
33rd Michael Kopech RHP,
35th Jack Flaherty RHP,

uglyone - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#402348) #
IIRC the hype on Hoffman all came from 24ip in the Cape Cod Summer League, where admittedly he did put up the first impressive K rate of his life at 33.7k%, but again, in only 24ip (4gms).
jgadfly - Monday, July 12 2021 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#402349) #
another plus ... Hudson, Florida is about 30 miles north of Dunedin so his rehab will be close to home
2021 MLB Draft - Day 1 | 41 comments | Create New Account
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