Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Should the Jays do $300 million deals?

This is a big question with Bo & Vlad, and the possibility of trading for Jose Ramirez among others. Lets look at history to get an idea on this.

Yeah, by 2024 some of those mega deals could look bad, and some could look great. Mega Deals = over $250 mil. As a rule you want 1 WAR for every $9 mil spent but 1 per 10 isn't horrid.

Mike Trout - $426.5 mil (2019-2030) - should be good overall, age 27-38, 11.5 WAR so far actually low for him over 3 years. Injuries this year make it a lot riskier than it seemed at first. Just 32.5 WAR to go to break even.
Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32) - age 28-39, yikes. 4.2 WAR last year. I see lots of risk here.
Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31) - age 28-37. 3.1 WAR last year - has to be above that level to make it a good deal. I wouldn't bet on it.
Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34) - age 22-35, early years a lock to be great value, the later will be the question 6.6 WAR last year, I like the odds of him averaging 3-4 WAR throughout.
Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31) - age 26-38, 12.3 WAR already (1 MVP), I like the odds of him getting them 20+ WAR over the next decade.
Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27) - ugh. age 25-38, started out good, 22.5 WAR so far, but slowed drastically with just 4.1 over the past 3 years. 6 years left to get 10 WAR, could happen he has the raw power to do it in one or two years easily but the Yankees right now would probably love to dump him.
Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31) - age 28-37 - just 3.7 WAR last year, they need him to average roughly that over the next decade. I don't like the odds. 2017 was the last time he had 3+ WAR. I expect this to become an anchor on the Rangers in 3 years.
Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28) - age 29-37, opt out after age 33 season or Yankees can guarantee $36 mil for his age 38 season to lock him in. Smart move by his agent. 7.8 WAR so far, so good. But with pitchers I always get very nervous about long term deals at record dollar amounts. See David Price for an example. Jays came in 2nd iirc but settled for Ryu instead (at a far lower cost).
Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28) - age 26-35, 10.8 WAR so far, 20 more needed. Looking good so far but my gut says this won't end well. Could easily be very wrong.
Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) - age 32-41, didn't play at 41 or 38 (PED suspension). 23.1 WAR so not horrid but not what was hoped for obviously. Even before factoring in the media circus (bad levels even for NY).
Nolan Arenado, $260,000,000 (2019-26) - age 28-36. 12.8 WAR so far, so 24 more needed over 5 years to break even, not easy but could happen. You can see why the Rockies had to pay a chunk of the salary to deal him.
Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) - age 25-34 (Yankees bought out the last 3 years as part of his next deal) 71.4 WAR. Actually a very good contract if you look at it objectively, but the Rangers did tons of stupid moves around it and ended up needing to trade him to avoid massive money troubles iirc. The Rangers overpaid for the era, even though it wasn't a bad deal - he got MVP votes every single year of the deal with 2 wins, 4 others times in the top 10.

So looking at mega deals I see lots of 'this could be bad' and few easy wins. Best bets to work are Tatis, Harper, Cole, Machado, A-Rod's first deal (even if Texas screwed it up). Most likely to blow up are Betts (too many late 30 years), Lindor (same), Stanton, Seager I'd be shocked if he comes close to $10 mil per WAR, I expect he'll produce at half the rate they need once it is all said and done. A-Rod's second deal was a bad deal at the time and looks dumber after the fact, the Yankees should've let him finish the first deal then tried to sign him.

Just missing are nightmare deals like Miguel Cabrera ($248 mil, age 33-40 with 2 more vesting options which are highly unlikely to happen) - has produced 4.0 WAR so far and I doubt he'll reach 10 total by the end of this deal in 2023, heck he might go down as he is just a DH now and from 2017 to now has produced negative WAR), Stephen Strasburg ($245 mil, age 31-37, -0.3 WAR so far) who might recover but I sure wouldn't want to be on the hook for $200 mil counting on it. Etc. Lots of other bad ones in teh $200+ area (Anthony Rendon, Albert Pujols) with others that are 'meh' at best (Robinson Cano - 25.2 WAR for $240 mil and 2 years to go but PED issues are killing him now), and one that worked well (Joey Votto 30.3 WAR with 2 years to go for $225 mil).

Bottom line? Sign them by age 26 or you are probably going to regret signing them to these mega $200+ mil deals. So Bo & Vlad might work out in the end, but Ramirez could be a mistake even if he does fit perfectly today (any big money deal would be to have him for age 31 and beyond). Father Time is a cruel thing to ballplayers and the age 32 curse is near universal sans PEDs. (by 32 the 'outfield of the 80's' were all washed up).

Want more proof of age 32? OK....
Great Jays post age 32...

Carlos Delgado - 7.6 WAR total, maybe JPR was right to let him go.
Fred McGriff - 12.8 WAR total
Roberto Alomar - 7.0 WAR, 7.3 at age 33, negative after that.
Josh Donaldson - 9.1 WAR so far, signed for 2 more years plus an option
José Bautista - 13.2 WAR - I thought it'd be higher given his late peak, 11.7 age 33/34 then flop.
Tony Fernandez - 8.9 WAR - despite a crazy 2 years near the end - 2nd half 1998 plus 1st half 1999 = 360/438/492 - dang nice for a guy at 36/37 who'd be in Japan the next year.
Vernon Wells - 0.4 WAR - finishing off his $100+ mil contract, the miracle trade of AA.
Edwin Encarnacion - 11.2 WAR - better than I expected to be honest. Negative WAR his final season of 2020.
John Olerud - 9.4 WAR - 7.8 at age 33/34 combined, but that was it beyond a tiny trickle to finish off his career.
Devon White - 9.7 WAR - nearly all from age 33-35 showing that amazing defense and speed still doesn't keep you safe.
George Bell, negative at 33, Moseby didn't play from 32 on, Barfield ended at 32.
Shawn Green, -0.6 WAR from 33 on, retired after age 34 season. Funny, thought he did better than that but clearly not.

I could go on but the trend is clear. After age 32 don't expect much from a guy. If you are lucky you'll get 1 or 2 more solid years but that is it unless PEDs are involved or extreme luck. So guaranteeing anything more than $100 mil past age 32 is writing off the cash. A big warning for the Jays I'd say. Applies to athletic players like White, and not as athletic ones. To SS's (Fernandez), 2B (Alomar), 1B (Delgado/McGriff/Olerud), OF (lots of examples), etc. Pitchers can adjust to be 'smart/crafty' but hitters can't. They can take more walks but that is about it. No shock that Bautista is the best post age 32 guy I checked, but I was a bit surprised McGriff was 2nd and Encarnacion 3rd.

What about guys the Jays brought in after age 32?

Dave Winfield: Age 33-end - 18.4 WAR with a year off for injuries. His year here was age 40 with 4.1 WAR (negative post that year)
Paul Molitor: Age 33-end - 29.0 WAR - wow. 5.6 his first year here. He was a big exception to the rule I'd say.

For FYI on PED effect....
Barry Bonds - age 33 to end - 71.0 WAR, 91.8 before 33 as an FYI. Age 33 was his last non-PED year according to the book on him.
Mark McGwire - age 33 to end - 22.4 WAR (included 70 HR season) 39.8 before that, identical to Fred McGriff pre-33. McGriff didn't do PEDs as far as we know (zero rumors on that front and his stats fit a normal age curve) so if the vets are really anti-PED they should put McGriff in next winter and leave McGwire on the outside looking in.
Alex Rodriguez - age 33 to end - 16.3 - losing a year to PED suspension, then being pretty much told to retire thanks to the media circus around him cut that figure, if he had got away with it he'd probably be well over 20.

Seems PEDs do slow the process but don't stop it. Other known users include - Manny Ramirez (caught twice) had just 18.6 post 32, Jose Canseco 6.0, Rafael Palmeiro 28.2 (including 3 of his best 6 seasons), Ken Caminiti 16.4, Jason Giambi 9.5, Benito Santiago 5.8, Gary Sheffield 23.0, Wally Joyner 11.3, David Segui 4.9, Melky Cabrera -1.4. Some did lousy, some great. I'd say a guy getting over 20 WAR post 32 is a warning sign but hardly a lock - Hank Aaron had 46.7 post age 32, Willie Mays 58.2, Ted Williams 39.3, Babe Ruth 58.8 for example. But those are VERY big exceptions to any rule (inner circle HOF'ers). Derek Jeter never was accused (amazingly enough given he played with plenty of known users from A-Rod to Pettitte to Giambi) and had 17.3 WAR post age 32. Would be interesting to do an in-depth study of it.

Basically if you sign a hitter for age 33 and beyond expecting anything beyond 5 WAR you are hoping you have a high level HOF'er on your hands. A guy who is willing to work his butt off to keep going well past when most give up the ghost.

For our big 2 - Vlad, free agency just before his age 27 season, Bo just before his age 28 season. So if you can get them to sign for a 10 year deal today (covering Vlad 23-32, Bo 24-33) you'd hit the ideal window, but it is closing fast. Odds are both will want 12+ year deals to go deep into the post 30 window, or to have shorter deals so they can be free agents pre-age 30.

Posted by John Northey on Monday, February 07 2022 @ 01:00 PM EST.

Should the Jays do $300 million deals? | 96 comments | Create New Account

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dalimon5 - Monday, February 07 2022 @ 01:27 PM EST (#410707) #

John this is a great write up which shows the danger of mega deals while also highlighting the short window remaining to figure out a way to max out retention of these assets/stars.

greenfrog - Monday, February 07 2022 @ 01:39 PM EST (#410708) #

I'm a fan of the initial extensions given to players like Trout (6/$144.5m for 2015-2020), Pujols (7/$100m for 2004-2011) and Tulo (6/$31m for 2008-2013). The Jays should take a similar approach with Vladdy and Bo, as opposed to offering the more lavish types of extensions that were subsequently given to the above players.

Mike Green - Monday, February 07 2022 @ 02:50 PM EST (#410711) #

I don't agree about Betts. He's a 50 WAR player through age 28; the chance that he'll get 32 WAR over the remainder of his career is high and my money is on another 50 WAR before he's done. There are 10 other outfielders with 50 WAR by age 28- Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Mike Trout, Andruw Jones, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams and Tris Speaker. Yes, there's the Andruw risk but overall given Betts' control of the plate, his build and his record of durability, I'm not worried. I'm a little more worried about Trout because of his injury history and build- it's really amazing how well the Mantle comparisons have held with Trout. Trout now trails Mickey by 9 WAR, but I think that he'll probably end up at about the same point and more than worth his contract.

Nigel - Monday, February 07 2022 @ 02:50 PM EST (#410712) #

Interesting exercise - thank you John. I think evaluating mega contracts is complicated by my sense that, at the extremes, the value of 1 WAR may be considerably more or less than the $8-10m that is used as the current rough rule of thumb. On the low end, the cost of improving from a replacement or below replacement player to a 1-2 WAR player is usually considerably less than that figure. My sense is that the value of 1 additional WAR from a superstar may also be worth considerably more (as you get some finacial bump from having a superstar attached to your brand, you are extracting that additional WAR value without having to use another line-up spot/position to obtain that value and the superstar in question is so more rarer to find). The non-linear nature of the value of WAR is both beyond my math and makes evaluating some of these deals harder.

Michael - Monday, February 07 2022 @ 06:05 PM EST (#410715) #

I'm with Nigel.

Basically because you have both limited roster spot and limited guys that can put up very high WAR seasons (and limited ability to change between them easily) the value of a 10 WAR player is more than 10x the value of a 1 WAR player. Now for most players that are in the 0-2 WAR level that doesn't really matter very much (the impreciseness of WAR at that level trumps the fact that a 1.2 WAR player is slightly more than 20% more valuable than a 1 WAR player), but when you are talking about the top guys that are MVP threats and earn the big payday you are talking about that difference mattering much more. Similarly, if you look at championship added you are much better off with a player that puts up an 8 WAR season 1 year and misses the second year due to injury/PED/whatever than you are with the guy who puts up the still very good 4 WAR both years. It is harder to plan around the inconsistent guy, but in terms of being the very best team in the league, the outliers matter.

And the above is about valuing the player, there is also valuing the team. I.e., a last place team gets less value out of a star than a marginal playoff team does. Even a 1st place team gets (a little) less value out of a star than a marginal playoff team does.

Finally, with all these deals you also have to take into account the discount rate (I.e., a $1 today is worth more than $1 10 years from now). Both in terms of the "normal" economy and in terms of the MLB players one. At least you assume there is some amount of inflation over time, and many long term deals have increasing salaries over time which play into that as a contract paying 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 is a "cheaper" contract than one that pays 35, 30, 25, 20, 15 even if you expect the player will decline over time and expect to be "worth" the 35 losing 5/year as opposed to the 15 increasing 5/year.

scottt - Monday, February 07 2022 @ 07:55 PM EST (#410716) #

I don't see Bo or Vladdy doing early extensions.
If Vladdy can repeat his last year he's probably asking for 400M.
There seems to be a higher injury risk with Bo than with Vlad.
Maybe another big injury saps his arbitration earning so much that he takes an early extension.
With Springer they went 6 years and the first year has not been good.

Other than that, most of the Jays payroll is spent on pitching.
22M for Gausman
20M for Ryu
10.7M for Berrios
4.5M for Garcia

10 players getting arbitration this year, but apart form Hernandez getting around 10M, Vlad getting around 8M and Stripling getting around 4.5M for his last year, nobody is making 2M.

John Northey - Monday, February 07 2022 @ 10:11 PM EST (#410718) #

I see the Jays and Vlad considering a Tatis type deal - $340 mil for 10 years vs a 13 year deal like he signed. Vlad is into arbitration now. Arb years will be in the $10-$30 range, but after that who knows? A 10 year deal covers 4 years of arbitration and 6 years of free agency (assuming no massive changes to the collective deal). Lets say he is worth $40 mil for each of those 6 years (a level no one has officially hit), and roughly $20 mil per for the 4 years of arbitration (less next year, more in years 5 & 6). That equals $80 for the next 4, $240 for the free agent years = $320 million. That assumes near MVP levels for most of the deal (covering ages 23-32). Needing 32 WAR to be remotely worth it, the Jays would need to project 40 to feel safe doing it IMO. So 3-4 WAR a year for 10 years - sounds likely, but is it? Similarity scores puts Hal Trosky as most similar at age 22 - he was worth 23 WAR over the next decade, peak of 5.3 but his previous best was a 5.5 so he was a notch below Vlad. Ronald Acuna Jr. is #2, Cody Bellinger #3 (both useless for this purpose), then comes the 'wow' - Miguel Cabrera (55.5 WAR vs 9.2 pre age 23), Greg Luzinski (21.7, but only 4.9 before age 23 so not really close), Boog Powell (28.4 vs 7.1 pre-23), Eddie Murray (48.8 vs 7.5), Juan Gonzalez (31.3 vs 5.5), Giancarlo Stanton (31.8 with a year to go vs 12.3), Joe Medwick (45.1 vs 7.9).

So using similarity scores (far from ideal, but something at least) we see a range for his top 10 (skipping Acuna & Bellinger) of 23, 55.5, 21.7, 28.4, 48.8, 31.3, 31.8, 45.1 = 35.7 on average. So promising even with them not being particularly close to Vlad (9.5 WAR so far and a 2nd place MVP finish which none of them had at that stage although Cabrera did come in 5th in his age 22 season with a 151 OPS+). I like that the guy who seems closest (despite playing a different position at the time) was Cabrera who had the best next decade on the list. The fact none were at 950 for score (Trosky was a 942 which isn't that similar) suggests that Vlad is a unique talent and those are harder to predict, but often result in good things (most extreme is probably Pete Rose whose most similar has a score of 678.8 - Paul Molitor). Gurriel, for comparison, has a closest of 959.9 (Mitch Haniger) and his entire top 10 by age is 950+. Or more extreme is Biggio - his closest is a 971 (Trevor Plouffe - a guy with under 10 WAR lifetime, ugh).

So with that quick, cheap look I'd say Vlad is worth a $300-350 mil deal for 10 years and could provide $400-500 mil of value if everything goes right (ala Cabrera) with a worst likely case of $200-$250 mil of value (ala Luzinski). Worst likely (injuries could go to 0 of course) would hurt, but not be a killer. Best though would be a 'woohoo!!!' and likely HOF plaque. If he pushes for 13 years for $400 though (which I suspect his agent will try for) I'd be a bit more hesitant and would need to do a TON more studies on his likely path (obviously if I was risking $300+ of my money I'd do a LOT more than I did here).

My gut says both Bo & Vlad will try for $400 million deals which would require a crazy 13 year commitment imo. 10 years is pushing it hard but 13 years is insane - covers to age 35 for Vlad (thus likely his whole career), and to age 36 for Bo (again, likely his whole career).

For past Jays who might have been considered for this type of deal after age 22 or 23, I'd say Roberto Alomar is #1 to think of. Came here after his age 22 season in San Diego with 12.2 WAR already to his name. His age 23 season was a 4.6 (6th in MVP voting) and for 23-32 he was 47.8 WAR, but 33-35 was just 7.8 (one great year and 2 replacement level ones). So he is the massive flashing warning light about post age 32 deals. No one saw it coming (maybe the guys running Cleveland did when they traded him just before he collapsed but I doubt it). Delgado wasn't a regular until 24, same for McGriff (platoon at 23), Fernandez at 23 became a regular (3.9 WAR) but it was way too soon for him. So yeah, this is kind of a unique situation in Jays history. Closest is Dave Stieb probably, at 22 an all-star (4.9 WAR, 6.3 total) - from 23-32 he was 49.1 WAR - a HOF level, but at 33 blew his arm out and from 33 to the end (including his bonus year at 40) just 1.2 WAR. So yeah, age 32 is a risky age to pass on deals (unless you are talking Jose Bautista who had a freak show career path).

dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 08 2022 @ 12:51 AM EST (#410719) #

Jays will trade Bo and resign Vlad to whatever he wants. That's my prediction. He brings something very unique to the team and not seen since Miggy.

Bo is a great young player like many other top young players in the league. He reminds me a lot of Brett Lawrie in some ways but better. I wouldn't compare him to Evan Longoria or other young stars who carried their teams for years. More Lawrie and less Longoria or somewhere in between.

I think he will want a huge contract over $275 million because if the Jays don't give it then someone else will. Jays have been amazing talent on the left side of the infield with their prospects and are well positioned to move on from Bo if forced.

Lastly, they made a run at Corey Yeager which tells you a lot about who they would prioritize if they only sign one of their two young stars.

One more thing, Berrios is more valuable than both of them and his signing was an incredible one by the team.

Just my left field opinion/prediction. We shall see.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 08 2022 @ 12:55 AM EST (#410720) #

Seager not Yeager

and amassing not amazing

One of these days I'll move on from my blackberry with its faulty auto correct functions...

bpoz - Tuesday, February 08 2022 @ 08:56 AM EST (#410725) #

I just looked at A Judge career so far. He had a great (career year) in 2017. Similar but different to Vlad's 2021 season. 208Ks.
I think Judge is a FA after 2022. He will play 2023 as a 31 year old. If he has a good season like he had last year then letting him walk will be bad PR most likely. NYY possibly tries to avoid bad PR. So maybe 4-6 year contract that includes options. We will see. NYY fans are tough.

Jays and Vlad could also produce bad PR depending on what happens.

John Northey - Tuesday, February 08 2022 @ 07:54 PM EST (#410740) #

Judge's career is interesting to look at - didn't reach until 24, everyday at 25 so a late start. Led in R/HR/BB/SO as a rookie, but hasn't led in anything since. He is a free agent after this season, but the late start means he will be entering his age 31 season. Can't imagine anyone will give him more than Springer got unless he goes nuts this year with 60+ HR or something. Would be sweet to steal him from the Yankees but odds are he'd be too expensive to justify.

John Northey - Wednesday, February 09 2022 @ 12:05 PM EST (#410741) #

Just thinking about Bo - I read somewhere (can't find it now) that he was being encouraged strongly by the union to go to free agency.

Most similar through age 23...

Corey Seager - 4 years later he has produced 9.2 WAR (307 games, health a big issue) but is now guaranteed to make over $30 mil a year though age 37 (2031).
Nomar Garciaparra - his next 10 years started great but was it for his career - 36.8 WAR but just 0.6 after that. Ugh. Did his career end quick.
Yogi Berra - yes, the catcher. Like Vlad Bo is fairly unique so you get odd comparisons. 46.3 WAR over the decade following and 9.4 after that - there is a reason he is in the HOF.
Hanley Ramirez - 28.9 WAR over the next decade, but -0.1 after that. Sometimes forget how good he was early on.
Gleyber Torres - yes, the Yankees SS - had a poor year at 24 (0.8 WAR), now entering his age 25 season.
Robinson Cano - 57.5 WAR* - PED inflated. 8 WAR from age 34 up (missed 2021 due to his PED use)
Tony Lazzeri - 37.1 WAR in the following decade, then 1.3 after that. Another HOF'er but from the 20's.
Troy Tulowitzki - 37.3 WAR over the decade, then came back for a brief bit in NY 0 WAR there while being paid by the Jays.
Earl Williams - Just 3 WAR for the rest of his career, but he is a weak match anyways at 906 (I said Bo was fairly unique).
Asdrubal Cabrera - 20.3 WAR 0.6 since but still hunting for a job at 36. Again a weak comparison at just 903.

Wow, Bo's list really is limited as scores in the low 900's are rare this early in a career. #3 if you take whole career vs Bo's whole career is Fernando Tatis Jr., but #4 is Devon Travis. Yeah, that is an odd list.

Ignoring Sager and Torres, you get WAR's over 10 years of 36.8, 46.3, 28.9, 57.5, 37.1, 37.3, 3.0, 20.3 so just one flop (Williams) but overall pretty nice - suggesting a $300 million contract isn't insane for him. Average of 33.4 which at $9 mil per WAR is worth almost dead on $300 million. Remove Cano (PED) and Williams (weak comparison) and you get 34.5 WAR. So like Vlad, signing a 10 year deal isn't an insane risk at this point in time. But looking at the post age 33 records above I'd say anything longer is tossing money in the toilet.

No arbitration this year, so just 3 years of that for Bo (lets estimate an average of $20 mil per), then 6 of free agency you'd be trying to buy out ($35 mil per taking top years of Seagers deal and factoring in not paying for ages 34-37) and you get $60+$210+$0.6 (one pre-arb) = $270.6 million. So that is my estimate of what would be reasonable to get Bo signed for the next 10 years. Realistically the Jays would go in at $250 with Bo asking $325 I'd guess (to match Seagers deal). My gut says he won't sign though and will test free agency in 3 years, at which point a 5-6 year deal at $40 per might make sense (depending on how the league's economics work then) but some idiot will go for a 10 year deal like Seager got and then have to eat the final 4 years of it.

bpoz - Wednesday, February 09 2022 @ 12:12 PM EST (#410742) #

I looked at Judge again. He seems quite equal to Springer. Springer/Judge also seem superior to Teoscar and Gurriel. But by how much I don't know.

I think that Teoscar and Gurriel are under Jay's control for 3 more years. Since I fear the outfield surface of RC I am leaning towards letting them walk. John N's 32 age barrier for performance decline has me convinced as well. So don't sign Judge. And Springer hopefully can give us 3 healthy seasons.

If there is a future vacuum in the OF someone will show up to fill it I expect. For example the 2018 rebuild had Grichuk, Teoscar and C Granderson/Gurriel. Gurriel produced a typical Gurriel hot streak.

scottt - Wednesday, February 09 2022 @ 06:50 PM EST (#410743) #

Teoscar, Gurriel and Grichuk are all free agents at the end of next year.
Will they replace 4 outfielders at the same time? Hernandez is the obvious extension candidate.
With the current system, he's worth a QO. Gurriel only need to show some consistency.
Springer should move to a corner spot by them, but it's hard to find a CF in free agency.
The Yankees have not done well at the position and Boston brought Bradley Jr back.
Ideally you trade for a young prospect but who trades those away?
Maybe a contending team looking for an MVP candidate.

I don't like the idea of trading the top pitching prospects.
They can't afford to keep overpaying for starting pitching.

Groshans is expendable. Kirk is expendable. Grichuk might have some value but only if they pay the entire salary.
Gurriel opens a hole in left field. He was the hottest hitter in September and the Blue Jays probably make the playoffs if Grichuk doesn't step on his hand.

I vastly prefer getting a DH bat than trading good players and top prospects 3 for 1.

John Northey - Wednesday, February 09 2022 @ 09:48 PM EST (#410745) #

Free agents by year via Cot's (age for season post-free agency, thus the first year any new contract covers)
Post 2022: Ross Stripling (33)
Post 2023: Ryu (37), Grichuk (32), Hernandez (31), Gurriel (30), Cimber (33), potentially Garcia (option)
Post 2024: Garcia (if option picked up), Jansen (30), Richards (32), Borucki (31)
Post 2025: Vlad (27), Biggio (31), Mayza (34), Thornton (32), Bo (28), Romano (33), McGuire (31). Yikes.

So next winter is the calm before the storm. 2023/2024/2025 offseasons will be major headaches. However, looking at the ages I see a lot of guys on the wrong side of 30 when they hit free agency. Grichuk is an obvious 'see ya', Hernandez a 2 year deal could make sense but that'd be as far as I'd go. Same for Gurriel. As we've been debating, Bo & Vlad are the big question marks. At those ages they should be looking at $300-$400 million deals assuming health and good performance in line with 2021's. Everyone else is replaceable.

bpoz - Thursday, February 10 2022 @ 09:18 AM EST (#410747) #

I looked at pitching lost to FA. Have to consider Ryu good. We have him for 2 more years. He is the 1st good pitcher to depart.

The pen will be tweaked and fortified every year. At the trade deadline and off season. Cimber, T Richards and Y Garcia fit into this recent timeline.

38 on the 40 man roster currently. Will the 2 open spots be filled with good quality? Mallex Smith is useful but not good quality IMO. Kay, Hatch and Thornton have to prove themselves worthy of a 40 man spot by the end of the year. Merryweather and Borucki as well. Health and performance.

O Martinez and Groshans will be added by the rule 5 deadline for sure IMO. Maybe A Kloffenstein as well.

John Northey - Thursday, February 10 2022 @ 10:44 AM EST (#410748) #

For the 40 man I suspect we'll see a catcher depart of the 4 we have on it now, maybe 2 of them go. Jimenez/Smith/Lopez are the spare infielders on it, hard to predict on them. Josh Palacios is the only extra outfielder (the others are the big 4, hopefully at least one is traded this season). Pitching is nuts though with 22 on the 40 man roster. Guaranteed there will be lots of churn there.

Possible adds at some point in 2022: Jordan Groshans, Zach Logue, Bowden Francis, Joey Murray, Graham Spraker, Jackson Rees - all are on the Jays top 37 list from FanGraphs and in AA/AAA for 2022 - pitchers especially could be put onto the Buffalo/Toronto shuttle. If no new 3B is signed then Groshans is a lock to be up at some point if he performs at his usual level. I figure Logue is high on the 'fill in when a guy gets hurt' list should he do well early on. Just 6 guys though, so with 22 pitchers on the 40 man it shouldn't be hard to make space if needed. Note: on average 7-8 players make their ML debut each year with each team. Safe to say there will be some surprises in the eventual call ups. There is always someone who does far better than anyone expected and he gets a shot for a game or two at least. There is always someone who does far worse and gets demoted/released.

Gerry - Thursday, February 10 2022 @ 11:29 AM EST (#410749) #

There is a good interview with Samad Taylor at Fangraphs.

This past season, I trusted my hands more. I waited more, and that gave me a longer time to see the ball and react. Because I have electric hands, I know that a guy isn’t going to just blow a fastball by me. I have time to hit pitches that are deep, so I took one of my best tools out of my back pocket and used it at my advantage.”

Gerry - Thursday, February 10 2022 @ 11:30 AM EST (#410750) #

The link disappeared from that post...here it is.

Mike Green - Thursday, February 10 2022 @ 01:01 PM EST (#410751) #

That is a good interview, with echoes of what we have heard before from players who have taken a step forward. Thanks, Gerry.

John Northey - Thursday, February 10 2022 @ 04:22 PM EST (#410752) #

Thanks Gerry. I enjoyed reading that interview. Sounds like he will be a good coach someday if he doesn't make it as a player. Learning to look at what you are doing and at what others are doing is critical to improvement. Learning that the best still strike out around 100 times a year is a big thing for a kid to figure out. As they say, baseball is a game of failure. Hitters who get on base 40% of the time are stars. 50% is super-rare (Barry Bonds did it for a few years but even he didn't do it for his career)

scottt - Thursday, February 10 2022 @ 08:55 PM EST (#410753) #

22 pitchers on the 40 roster is not a huge bias.
The active roster can only have 13 pitchers. Relievers and spot starters go up and down continuously.
There might be a lot of double headers is the season is compressed.
There shouldn't be that much movement with the position players. 9 regulars and 4 bench players.
Back up players and guys who are on the roster just to be protected from the rule 5 draft.
Palacios was injured most of last year, so you can't even look at his AAA numbers.
I don't think he can play CF. He made a huge blunder that cost a game last September.

Speaking of the rule 5. I wonder if they'll just cancel it this year.
Would make a lot of sense. Every guy drafted replaces another player, possibly a free agent.
It's going to be a rush just to sign the free agents before camp if they eventually agree on something.

scottt - Friday, February 11 2022 @ 08:42 AM EST (#410754) #

Saw a recent Bo interview in which he said that Dante resigned from the Blue Jays so that he could keep coaching him through the lockout. Bo also mentioned that he feels no pressure to sign an extension.

Ryan Day - Friday, February 11 2022 @ 10:10 AM EST (#410755) #

An interesting thing about Bo & Vlad (and probably Cavan, to a lesser extent) is that they likely don't feel much pressure to sign a big contract so they can look after their family, or guarantee their financial future. Barring some unknown family conflicts, everyone is pretty comfortable, so there's virtually no risk of playing it all year-to-year.

John Northey - Friday, February 11 2022 @ 01:08 PM EST (#410757) #

For Bo & Vlad the Jays need to sell them on the idea of playing together for their careers. Thus offering them both a $300 million 10 year deal at the same time would make a ton of sense. A bit high for Bo, a bit low for Vlad, but if they knew both were signing at the same time and could become 'the faces of the franchise' together they might go for it.

Simple studies have shown being on one team your whole career jumps your HOF odds and how much of a star you are. There are exceptions (Lou Whittaker comes to mind immediately) but it generally holds. Of course, if, say, Bo wants to play in Colorado or Vlad wants to play as an Angel then things change quite a bit. But here they are separate from their father's legacies and can form one together if they want. I would assume the Jays have touched on that with them to see if there is a potential path that way. The next generation of players growing up together is working its way here with Gabriel Moreno/Jordan Groshans/Otto Lopez all being in Lansing in 2019, AA last year, starting in AAA in 2022 and maybe all up by mid-season 2022. That would cover C/3B/2B ala Bo/Vlad/Biggio covering SS/1B/2B - Biggio & Lopez the weak links in each group. Moreno is not quite Vlad level, but is as close as we could hope. Groshans is well below Bo at the same stage but again, not bad. Lopez and Biggio both are talented but probably both doomed to be backups most of their careers or constantly proving themselves.

Lower down we have Orelvis Martinez who was with Leo Jimenez in A last year, but that isn't anywhere near a real combo at this stage. I expect Orelvis to start in A+ then move to AA after 1 or 2 months, then maybe to AAA in September if he does well. 2023 could see a big logjam in the infield. Which is a very good thing as the OF is weak in the minors and someone will need to move there or be moved to get an OF at some point probably.

The Jays are in good shape kid wise, and with a solid starting 4 for 2022/2023 the rotation should be OK until some kids start to develop. Pearson fighting for the #5 slot with about a half dozen others who are lower pedigree, but hopefully Gunnar Hoglund grows big time in 2022. Pitching is such a crapshoot - guys can come out of nowhere (don't recall any hype way back when over Juan Guzman before he came up and was an instant ace for example, or even more extreme was Dave Stieb who was an OF for 35 games his first pro season, then moved to the mound for 4 games, 19 total minor league games as a pitcher before reaching the majors, then was the Jays first super-star).

dalimon5 - Friday, February 11 2022 @ 01:22 PM EST (#410758) #

"An interesting thing about Bo & Vlad (and probably Cavan, to a lesser extent) is that they likely don't feel much pressure to sign a big contract so they can look after their family, or guarantee their financial future. Barring some unknown family conflicts, everyone is pretty comfortable, so there's virtually no risk of playing it all year-to-year."

This reasoning has never made enough sense to me. If they're making peanuts but have wealthy parents who you can live off of then ok, but that presumes that players are ok with being seen that way by the rest of their teammates.

Also...these star players will both be making over 10 million per year through arbitration process. They have enough money and then some in any case whether they sign an extension now or wait longer.

greenfrog - Friday, February 11 2022 @ 01:39 PM EST (#410759) #

Offering both of them high AAV contracts that run through the players' age 29 or 30 seasons is one possible approach. The Jays would get a few extra prime-age seasons out of them, and Bo and Vlad would still get to sign a massive contract with another team after that (as Pujols did after his years in St. Louis).

scottt - Friday, February 11 2022 @ 01:47 PM EST (#410760) #

There is a pretty big difference in which how much each will earn as a Blue Jays.
Bo is not arb eligible. Vlad should get a little under 8M as a super-two.
That's a huge head start.

electric carrot - Saturday, February 12 2022 @ 01:47 PM EST (#410767) #

I really like the idea of extensions to both players. And while I understand it may be difficult to manage I will say the day I see Vladdy in a non-Jays uniform is likely the day I become a non-Jays fan. This is my fair warning to the front office.

dalimon5 - Saturday, February 12 2022 @ 03:07 PM EST (#410768) #

Luckily there are more fans of the team than of one individual player. I hope they don't irrational sign any player, ever, if it means the team will be handicapped in other areas.

greenfrog - Saturday, February 12 2022 @ 07:05 PM EST (#410769) #

I think my proposal is a good compromise (I understand many fans may disagree). Securing those extra two or three years allows a fan to appreciate that their team has had roughly half the player’s career — often the better half. See Halladay or Pujols, for example. That seems to be a fair outcome for an MLB team that isn’t the Yankees or Dodgers.

John Northey - Saturday, February 12 2022 @ 11:18 PM EST (#410770) #

Greenfrog - agreed 100% - you want the first decade of a guys career. Years after that tend to be lower value, higher cost. Then get him to come 'home' for a reunion in their final season as a backup ala Tony Fernandez here, Gary Carter with the Expos, Tim Raines there too (although he changed his mind and did an extra season in Florida after the Expos handed him to Baltimore so he could play a game with his son in the majors). Random note: Raines first game with his son he came in as a PH against the Jays and had a lineout then got a sac fly to put the O's within one but the Jays won in the end.

That's why I'd love the Jays to do a 10 year deal with each of Bo & Vlad as soon as the lockout ends. Sadly the two of them probably don't want to do that unless it is for silly money (well, whatever they get will be silly money, but they both probably want to get $400 million or something insane like that). Easy to see why the owners won't budge on 6 years of ML experience to get to free agency.

A few of the best Jays and their first decade vs rest and you can see why Japan set their free agency as after the first 10 years.

McGriff: 38.1 WAR, 9.0 WAR (5 years)
Alomar: 45.4 WAR, 23.8 WAR (7 years)
Fernandez: 31.6 WAR, 13.7 WAR (7 seasons over 9 years, 1 lost to injury, 1 to Japan)
Delgado: 28.0 WAR, 16.4 WAR (7 years)
Olerud: 34.3 WAR, 23.9 WAR (7 years) = probably the most balanced first 10 vs rest
Vernon Wells: 23.8 WAR, 4.7 WAR (5 years at an average of over $20 mil per year)

I'm sure I could go on, but none did as well after their first decade as they did after (seems kind of a 'duh' thing) but also only Alomar & Olerud gave big time value post that, with Wells doing poorly and the 'outfield of the 80s' all lasted exactly 12 years. It is rare a player has come up and wowed us right away here in Toronto, even rarer they kept doing so for their whole careers. For pitchers you get Stieb 16 seasons (7 WAR post first decade), Halladay (30.1 WAR after first 10, but those first 10 included his brief callup in 98 and that 10.49 ERA season), Key (13.1), David Wells (32.4 post first decade - dang was Gillick dumb to let him go for nothing - guess even HOF GM's make mistakes).

Thomas - Wednesday, February 16 2022 @ 03:47 PM EST (#410799) #

If you want a further sense of the landscape it will take to sign Vlad and Bo, Juan Soto reportedly turned down a $350/13 year contract offer from the Nationals that would have started in 2022 and paid him an average annual salary of $27 million.

Soto has Boras as his agent and seems determined to test free agency, but I think Vlad and Bo are going to be similarly hard to get to agree to an extension.

greenfrog - Wednesday, February 16 2022 @ 04:30 PM EST (#410800) #

The Rays really executed well with the Wander Franco extension. 11 years of control (including all of his 20s) for $182m, plus a club option for a 12th year for $25m (which will be peanuts by then). The timing was brilliant, as Franco may well have become unaffordable after another half-year or year in the majors. That's how you do it if you're a small-market team and you have a generational talent coming up.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 16 2022 @ 04:55 PM EST (#410801) #

Soto has 3 years of arbitration left and all three years will be on the expensive side. I don't think 13/350 was a good offer for him, as crazy as that sounds given the type of money that is. MLBTR projects his 2022 arb salary to be $16.2M. A conservative estimate for his 2022-24 arbitration money is probably around ~$65M. When you factor that in the FA market at age 26 he's probably looking at $400M at the minimum (assuming his performance holds up which it should), I could see why he turned it down. If the Nationals want him to avoid the FA market in 3 years, then they might have to beat Trout's number in an extension ($430M).

I would imagine Vlad is going to be in a similar mindset with free agency. Either the Jays give him a massive extension offer (i.e. not team friendly), or he hits the market at age 26 with $350-400M in his sights.

Mike Green - Wednesday, February 16 2022 @ 05:00 PM EST (#410802) #

The Rays really executed well

Yep. How many times have those words been uttered? The Longoria contract set up the Rays' first run, and I think Franco will be an even better player.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 16 2022 @ 05:36 PM EST (#410803) #

I've been warning everyone how much these two will cost and why management will need to move one of them or start moving others to make it work. This is why I brought up trade as an option, which if we need to move on from one of them I would prefer to do not at the last minute before they walk.

greenfrog - Wednesday, February 16 2022 @ 06:56 PM EST (#410805) #

Maybe it's OK if the Jays let one or both of them walk when they hit free agency. I mean, LA just let Seager (age 27) walk, and the Red Sox let Betts walk (well, they traded him in his age-26 season a year before free agency). Both of those may prove to have been intelligent decisions. At some point you just have to say, that size of contract is too much risk for the good of the team as a whole.

John Northey - Wednesday, February 16 2022 @ 10:30 PM EST (#410807) #

I'm thinking the Jays management figures they can risk losing Vlad & Bo in exchange for the 100% flexibility they have until they both have had 7 seasons in the majors (6 full time plus 2019). After 2025 the Jays then can decide which of them, or if both of them, are worth $400 million over 10 years from that point in time (or whatever the market demands). If one gets hurt or drops in quality before then the Jays will have a lower contract to risk (years or dollars per year or both), or if they both do gangbusters from now to then the Jays will probably have had a few strong playoff runs (and hopefully a WS or two) and losing them would hurt but the team would have given us fans a few great years of fun with the option to go nuts and sign one or both depending on budget.

I certainly can see the advantages for the Jays to wait it out. They get the prime early years of both for pennies on the dollar, and let someone else take the risk of long term guarantees.

Mike Green - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 09:52 AM EST (#410810) #

It looks to me that Bichette will likely be in the range of Lindor and Correa when he hits free agency. I ran a Stathead search for comps to Lindor (who has 31 WAR through age 27- I just used 27-35 WAR for shortstops through age 27). I got 12 comps- Ernie Banks, Vern Stephens, Carlos Correa, Troy Tulowitzki, Rico Petrocelli, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Alan Trammell, Andrelton Simmons, Joe Sewell, Joe Tinker and Donie Bush.

Jeter and Trammell had great long careers. Banks was so good at age 28 and 29 that it more than made up for his less than stellar 30s. Stephens wasn't really anywhere ne as good as Lindor, having put up his age 21-27 numbers in large part during WW2. Tulo and Nomar added significant value especially at age 28-29, but didn't do enough to merit the big long-term contract. Sewell and Tinker were good until about 33, and would have been worth a contract at the low end of big. Petrocelli and Donie Bush added something after age 27, but any big contract would have been a disaster. Andrelton Simmons has produced 9 WAR between age 28 and 31, and the odds are pretty good that he'll be the thumbs down category too.

As one can see from the list, a big issue is durability. I'd certainly wait a year to see if Bichette can play another full season at a high level. If he does, I'd be inclined to give him in the big contract- not so much for what he may do in his 30s but for how good he may be at age 28-30. Ernie Banks is my target for him.

85bluejay - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 10:45 AM EST (#410811) #

Given that Vlad and Bo seem prepared to go year to year, I think both will be looking for contracts in the Tatis/Lindor strata to sign extensions and good for them - I will be ok with the Jays passing on both and spreading the money amongst other players and having heard Mark Shapiro speak many times about spreading the risk I'd be inclined to think that's the direction the Jays may eventually go. I've expressed my concern about how Vlad will age and Bo will want to be paid as a shortstop when he's really a second baseman - giving these guys 12-13 years contracts will likely get the thumbs down from me .

John Northey - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 11:51 AM EST (#410812) #

This is a fun thought discussion - what do do about having two potential HOF level talents in their early stages? This is a rare situation, how best to take advantage? The smart thing is probably to keep investing in hunting down more high end talent, going where other teams aren't and finding talent before they do. Building relationships so when kids reach 16 they feel like the Jays are where they want to be and not the Yankees or someone else. An international draft would weaken that advantage drastically though. But as we all know talent is out there and missed every year. For example, in 2010 Christian Yelich was the #23 pick (over 30 WAR so far) but by then 7 teams had picked guys who never reached and only 2 guys have more WAR who were drafted before him (#1/#3 picks - Harper & Machado). Late round 2, just after the Jays wasted a pick on Kellen Sweeney (never reached) Atlanta took Andrelton Simmons who has 37 WAR so far. 3rd round saw J.T. Realmuto (23 WAR), Jacob deGrom in the 9th (43 WAR), Robbie Ray was in the 12th round (but an $799k bonus so known but was a hard sign), Adam Eaton was in the 19th round. You get the idea. Teams that can do a better job scouting can find tons of gems late, especially if they can get creative with bonuses. I ignored guys who didn't sign (like the Jays taking Bryant in the 18th round - oh if only...). So imagine spending $1 or 2 million more on scouting and then finding more of those types of talents. The value you'd get from that could be more than what you'd get from signing Bo or Vlad long term. If I ran a team I'd be working very, very hard on finding a way to rate scouts performance, then go out and sign the best ones around. I remember AA making a big deal of getting more minor league scouts out there to figure out who the best minor leaguers were for trades/signing as minor league free agents. Investing that money in better training/care for your minor leaguers might also generate more value too. I'd pay every minor leaguer a full years salary and set up training facilities wherever possible for them to use, with a big encouragement to live/workout in Dunedin in the offseason (free housing/food/access to coaches). At a cost that is just a fraction of that $300-400 million should generate a few solid guys who'd work at the league minimum for 3 seasons..

Still, generational talent is generational for a reason. No amount of training would've made me into a ML player for example. Same with shifting a guy who might be no more than backup level talent into Vlad. But the Rays have shown that with work you can build so much depth you can trade for quality and never worry about having a 0 WAR position on the roster.

bpoz - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 12:28 PM EST (#410813) #

The 2010 draft had Dickie Joe Thon Rd 5 and K Bryant rd 18. Both HS players. Bryant said that the Jays never made him an offer. DJ Thon probably got all the available money. Many Bauxites believed that defensive position was very important. So SS trumps 3B and sure enough Bryant is a 3B/LF.

Shapiro has stressed the hit tool as the top priority in position players in most cases. But this has not really worked out in our June drafts. Bo IMO was a luck pick. Cavan was a smart pick with a good hit tool.

SK in NJ - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 12:35 PM EST (#410814) #

If I had to choose one, then I'd prefer the team keep Vlad. I think his training/conditioning was the only red flag in any potential long-term deal with him, and he seems to have taken care of that in a big way. I feel a lot better now about Vlad's performance as he ages than I did 2 years ago.

With that said, the Jays might be prepared to go year to year with them in the hopes of winning a championship in the next 4 years and then re-evaluating from there. I'm sure they have tried extension talks by now, and are either not ready to go to a Tatis level contract for either of them yet, or the players themselves are fine with going year to year in hopes of testing free agency in 4 years. Vlad in particular is already heading into what should be 4 lucrative arb years, and then can cash out at $300-400M after 2025, so I don't think he's in any real hurry. Bichette is probably the riskier player of the two.

John Northey - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 01:17 PM EST (#410815) #

Just for fun I thought 'lets see how we reacted to that 2010 draft'.

2010 Draft - Day One: wasted top pick on Deck McGuire, then took Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowski, Pistol was thinking the Jays would take Chris Sale (40+ WAR so far) or Zack Cox (never made it). Mike Green also had Yasmani Grandal (20+ WAR) on his wish list with Sale & Cox. Mylegacy also was high on Sale. Hrm... wait a minute as I read further it seems many were talking about the hitter Josh Sale who never reached ugh.
2010 Draft - Day Two -Chris DH mentions how big Bryant would be to sign - that he must be a backup plan if one of the high picks doesn't sign.
2010 Draft - Day Three - Dicky Thon not happy with how the Jays are negotiating, given his kid didn't make it who cares? Never had an OPS of 750+, reached AA after the Jays released him as a peak. I suspect he is the reason they didn't make an offer to Bryant. Paid well over slot to get Thon ($1.5 mil, no one else that round got over $850k, picks around him were in the $160-200k range). Sigh. If only the Jays had been more hard on Thon and let him go then signed Bryant with that money instead (as PeterG & Mylegacy thought would happen). Ah well.

In the end the Jays signed Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Dyson as 5+ WAR guys plus 2 backups (over 0 WAR, under 2) in Danny Barnes & Dalton Pompey. Also reaching and signed (sub 0 WAR) were Asher Wojciechowski, Deck McGuire, Sean Nolin, Myles Jaye, and Justin Nicolino. Kris Bryant, and Chad Green were the only 2 unsigned players who made it. The Jays have had a few guys like Bryant who they drafted but didn't sign over the years who I suspect we all really wish they had signed (immediately to mind are Jim Abbott in 1985 [19.6 WAR], and Ted Lilly [27.1]) but you can't sign everyone.

scottt - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 08:48 PM EST (#410819) #

In a way, it's safer to wait until the last year to try to sign them, neither Bo nor Vlad are signing a team friendly deal, so either they excel and the price is still the same or something bad happens and they might become more affordable.
Some guys prefer to hedge their bet and that's when you get deals done.
That's how the Yankees operate.

dalimon5 - Thursday, February 17 2022 @ 10:37 PM EST (#410821) #

There's also the option of trading one of them before their deal expires. Yes they are generational talents. Yes they are irreplaceable, but am I the only one wondering what type of insane return would be coming back? If I could trade one for an insane haul and still have the other left over ... I'm not opposed.

greenfrog - Friday, February 18 2022 @ 10:45 AM EST (#410822) #

Kiley McDaniel's farm system rankings are posted on the ESPN website. Here is where the AL East teams stand:

1. Orioles
2. Rays
7. Yankees
16. Red Sox
21. Blue Jays

Here is his comment on Toronto:

"The Jays have handed out nearly $400 million via three long-term deals (George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios) but are still running outside of the league's top 10 payrolls. They now appear to be in a perennial four-team race for the AL East (until the Orioles' rebuild begins to bear fruit), buoyed by the cost-controlled salaries of young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah. They have a top-heavy farm, led by two more potential impact players in Gabriel Moreno and Orelvis Martinez, who may soon be added to that list, making their balancing act a bit easier."

BlueJayWay - Friday, February 18 2022 @ 11:08 AM EST (#410823) #

If I could trade one for an insane haul and still have the other left over ... I'm not opposed.

That would be my preference as well. The thing with extending both is that it will cost *so* much money that I wonder if there will be enough payroll space left over to field a good enough team around them. That's really what it comes down to. If Rogers is willing to go up to luxury tax level or beyond, then it's probably doable. Shapiro's comments indicate that won't be happening, though, so it might very well be better to let at least one of them go.

It takes a lot of good players to have a good team (particularly in the AL East) so the front office should be thinking holistically about the entire roster, not get hung up on 'this particular guy' or 'that particular guy'.

John Northey - Friday, February 18 2022 @ 11:09 AM EST (#410824) #

greenfrog - quite the difference from one farm rating to another this year...
Keith Law...
#4: Rays
#5: Jays
#10: Orioles
#20: Red Sox
#22: Yankees

Baseball America
#2: Tampa Bay Rays
#4: Baltimore Orioles
#11: Boston Red Sox
#13: New York Yankees
#19: Jays

So the Rays are #4/#2/#2 by these 3, Jays #5/19/21, O's #10/#4/#1, Red Sox #20/11/16, Yankees #22/13/7.

Clearly McDaniel hates the Jays system and loves the Yankees, while Law is the reverse. Rays are a top 5 by all, O's strong but McDaniel loves them, Red Sox middle of the road by all.

Generally for prospects I go by BA first as they have by far the most experience and the others are just 1 guy. I hope Law is right for obvious reasons though.

bpoz - Friday, February 18 2022 @ 12:23 PM EST (#410826) #

I will not argue about the Rays their prospects via draft and trade have a good history of success.

The other 4 teams, including Jays have good impact position players at the top. Moreno seems to be 2nd to only Rutschman. Groshans has been slowed by injuries only 547ABs in the minors. Very good Avg and pretty good bb/k ratio. He needs a season with 450+ ABs so that he can gain momentum. Some players cannot stay healthy. Martinez has great power and good Avg, is young and will start 2022 in AA.

Moreno with ML success in 2022. Groshans healthy and successful in AAA pretty much ML ready. Martinez AA success and AAA success forecast for 2023. This is not a longshot prediction for results in 2022 (1 ML and 2 minor league). However ML success is a different story.

hypobole - Friday, February 18 2022 @ 01:24 PM EST (#410827) #

Danny Barnes, mentioned from the Jays 2010 draft class, has just been hired by the Mets as part of their coaching staff.

whiterasta80 - Friday, February 18 2022 @ 07:14 PM EST (#410828) #

Scott,

I fully agree. If the player isn't providing any discount then go year to year.

We could have saved a fortune doing that with vernon wells but instead bid against ourselves a year early.

Mike Green - Saturday, February 19 2022 @ 11:15 AM EST (#410829) #

If a large market team is unwilling to pay fair market value for any of its homegrown stars from age 27 on, that probably doesn't bode well for its chances of remaining a large market team.

greenfrog - Saturday, February 19 2022 @ 11:55 AM EST (#410830) #

What is a "large market team" and do the Jays fit that description in terms of their actual spending? They seem to be more of a team that hovers near the top ten in annual payroll (with periods of retrenchment where they fall below that level). The luxury tax was $210m in 2021 and the Jays were well short of that threshold, as they always are.

85bluejay - Saturday, February 19 2022 @ 01:08 PM EST (#410831) #

I don't think the Jays would balk at paying stars( homegrown or not) fair market value for their age 27 plus seasons - After all, the Jays just signed Berrios & Gausman both 27 plus to fair market contracts - it's giving stars contracts with high AAV that stretches into their late 30's - e.g the tigers paying Miguel Cabrera $32M in his age 38/39 seasons. I think the Jays would gladly sign both Vladdy & Bo to 8-10 year contracts, it's the 13-14 year contracts that give pause.

John Northey - Saturday, February 19 2022 @ 03:09 PM EST (#410832) #

It does seem funny how people are still on the 'Rogers is cheap' bandwagon after 3 $100+ million deals signed in the past 2 years, and an $80 mil just before that. For Vlad & Bo I'd wait and see how they handle it. Only a dozen $250+ million deals in MLB history have been handed out, 2 signed by the Yankees (Cole, A-Rod #2), 2 acquired by them (A-Rod #1, Stanton). That makes the Jays look cheap by being in the same division, but vs the other teams in MLB it isn't. Cheap is the Rays, A's, Pirates, Reds, etc. St Louis is the example for everyone (smart, and willing to spend when it makes sense but holding off when it doesn't) - probably why their last sub 500 season was 2007 (only time in this century) despite being a smaller market than most teams (ranked #19 - bizarre though as they put the Jays behind the Tigers for market size).

greenfrog - Saturday, February 19 2022 @ 07:13 PM EST (#410833) #

85bluejay. Yes. The Blue Jays should aim to follow the St. Louis model, but with a bit more spending power. Of course, if the Jays intend to vault into the top half-dozen or so teams in spending, that would be fine with me (that they were serious bidders for Seager suggests that the team’s spending might have another gear).

Michael - Saturday, February 19 2022 @ 07:32 PM EST (#410834) #

The Jays are a large market team that has traditionally acted more like a mid-market team. They typically haven't acted like a cheap team (like Oakland or Tampa Bay or Florida or Pittsburgh.

Last 20 years opening payroll:

2021: 11th
2020: 19th
2019: 22nd
2018: 9th
2017: 5th
2016: 10th
2015: 10th
2014: 10th
2013: 9th
2012: 23rd
2011: 23rd
2010: 22nd
2009: 16th
2008: 13th
2007: 16th
2006: 16th
2005: 26th
2004: 21st
2003: 21st
2002: 11th

So in the top 10 6 times (3 of those 10th), bottom 10 7 times, and 7 times in the middle 10. The average over these 20 years has been about 15.5 so right in the middle.

Obviously while there is a strong correlation between payroll and wins, the wins are what we really want, and the flexing up to 5th in 2017 bodes well and some of the offseason moves the last couple of year also bodes well, but really by market power/market size the Jays could afford to be a team that was basically always in the top 10 payrolls, and hopefully long term deals for stars are appropriately pursued as are continuing to develop talent or bring in the appropriate free agent fillers.

dalimon5 - Saturday, February 19 2022 @ 08:33 PM EST (#410835) #

I don't see how relevant payrolls or market size is when it comes to talking about resigning Vlad and Bo. Baseball ownership has changed...I don't think you can look at market sizes anymore. All it takes is big spending owners. If Steve Cohen buys the Pirates then they become a big spending team, regardless of market size. Tv contracts just add to profits and not all owners are vested in spending more based on profit from tv deals or ticket intake.

Returning to Vlad and Bo, these guys will be top 10 and maybe top 5 all time in payroll and contract commitment. Suggesting that Toronto won't be a large market team if it can't pay fair market value for two of the next biggest contracts of all time in the history of baseball is egregious.

bpoz - Sunday, February 20 2022 @ 11:15 AM EST (#410836) #

Spending big with poor results in 2013 and 2014 cost Beeston and AA their jobs. High spending in 2015 and 2016 were rewarded with good results. 2017 and 2018 high spending with bad results leading to a rebuild.

Going forward from 2019 the team seems to accept high spending with good results. This is probably what we will get for now because the owners know that this is a good team.

The level of spending will have a range limit by the owners I suspect. Results will determine spending limits.

Positive results with a 6/7 team playoff structure I suspect are:
1) Be in a playoff race for the revenue.
2) Go far in the playoffs for even greater revenue.

Shapiro probably wants to build a successful playoff team to generate the greatest revenue. How I don't know.

I don't know details about how the 6/7 playoff teams will be determined. 3 division winners and then who? Include all 2nd place finishers? I hope not.

John Northey - Sunday, February 20 2022 @ 11:58 AM EST (#410837) #

Ugh. Hated the 2nd place teams getting in no matter what idea. Winner in then all wild cards is best. 3 division winners, then 4 wild cards is how I think MLB wants it - best record in league gets 1st round bye, 2nd and 3rd best division winners get to pick opponent from the bottom 3 wild card teams, then the left over 2 wild cards play each other. 3 game series with best team getting home field advantage for all 3 games. Thus an advantage to pushing to win until the final day for the most part. Win the league as a whole and you get a break once the season ends to allow your staff to get in shape for round 2 while your opponents fight tooth and nail to win. Get a wild card? You still fight to ensure you are the best wild card so you have home field advantage. Lots of incentives to keep pushing to the end this way. Last year the Rays would've had the bye, Then the Astros would've picked from NY/Toronto/Seattle (probably picking Seattle 11-8 vs them, 2-4 vs Yankees, 4-2 vs Jays), the White Sox pick next (hard to say who they'd pick, probably the Jays as they were 4-3 vs Toronto and 1-5 vs the Yankees), then the Red Sox get whoever is left. I think the Jays could've done well with Ray, Berrios, Manoah as the 3 starters with Matz as a long man and Ryu left off the roster for round 1 (can't see him coming in as a reliever). In the real playoffs the White Sox lost in 4 against Houston using Lance Lynn (5 r in 3 2/3 IP), Lucas Giolito (4 runs in 4 1/3 IP), and Dylan Cease (3 r in 1 1/3 IP). I would've liked the Jays odds against those 3 (probably just the first 2).

greenfrog - Monday, February 21 2022 @ 08:57 AM EST (#410838) #

If the Jays were previously willing to spend big on Seager, then maybe they would be willing to pivot to signing Bryant and Suzuki (and trading Grichuk)?

The lineup would still be excessively right-handed, but it would be a very good one:

Springer CF
Bichette SS
Guerrero Jr. 1B
Hernandez DH
Bryant 3B
Suzuki RF
Gurriel Jr. LF
Biggio 2B
Jansen C

Bench: Kirk, Espinal, Smith, LHH outfielder (ideally one who can play CF)

Assuming they're willing to sign for three or four years, Bryant and Suzuki would fit the current window of contention pretty well. Bryant isn't a perfect fit on this roster (compared to, say, Jose Ramirez), but he would be a useful player to have over the next couple of years.

dalimon5 - Monday, February 21 2022 @ 10:55 AM EST (#410839) #

I really want a lefty bat. I'm guessing that's something the management was willing to pay big $$$ for since it's such a glaring hole and they haven't had any success plugging it in since...Frank Catalanotto

bpoz - Monday, February 21 2022 @ 01:07 PM EST (#410840) #

There should be quick signings once the players and owners reach an agreement.

The Jays have 2 empty spots on their 40 man roster. But I don't think the Jays are desperate to add anything. Our rotation is quite good as is our pen and position players. Maybe veteran depth pitching. This should be easy to find.

92-93 - Monday, February 21 2022 @ 08:33 PM EST (#410841) #

Springer
Freeman
Guerrero
Ramirez
Bichette
Hernandez
Gurriel
Jansen
Biggio

electric carrot - Monday, February 21 2022 @ 09:02 PM EST (#410842) #

Springer
Freeman
Guerrero
Ramirez
Bichette
Hernandez
Gurriel
Jansen
Biggio

That's not a lineup that's a gauntlet!

greenfrog - Monday, February 21 2022 @ 10:37 PM EST (#410843) #

Great lineup, but it would require that either Freeman or Vladdy be the team’s permanent DH for many years to come. I’m not sure that makes sense. Also, Ramirez is probably unavailable until at least July.

My guess is that the team will make a run at Ramirez (likely unsuccessful, at least for now), Suzuki (likely unsuccessful), and others (Bryant? Schwarber? Conforto? An A’s or Reds pitcher?) Of course, the team can always choose to be conservative in their remaining moves this off-season, with a view to being more aggressive later on when better opportunities arise and there is more clarity about their in-house options.

Michael - Tuesday, February 22 2022 @ 02:28 AM EST (#410844) #

It is possible that no one is available until July as there may not be games until July. Most of the press seems to think that the season will still start on time, but we are getting pretty close to the wire and no one seems to report major breakthroughs, so I'm not as confident.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 22 2022 @ 08:33 AM EST (#410845) #

The worst part is not that fans, owners or players will miss baseball over $$$$, it's that the game itself likely won't see the turn over and rules changes required to make it more exciting and accessible as an entertainment product.

ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, February 22 2022 @ 02:04 PM EST (#410846) #

Exactly, Dalimon. They had 6 weeks where they did nothing when they could have worked on improvements to the game. Instead they had the usual staring contest waiting for the other side to blink.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, February 22 2022 @ 04:52 PM EST (#410847) #

I just want the hitters to stay in the box and a pitch clock enforced on the pitchers. Is that too much to ask? Rules changes were included earlier in the negotiations, but were jettisoned long ago to focus on economic issues. Months ago Manfred said something like they're taking game play stuff off the table for now, and it might be revisited next off season when they actually have a CBA in place.

JohnL - Wednesday, February 23 2022 @ 10:30 PM EST (#410849) #

I admit that in normal off seasons I don't follow a lot of stories. Trade suggestions, free agent speculations, predictions, feel like a lot of filler. I'll wait for the real thing.

Even more so this winter: wake me up when they settle, so I pay even less attention than other years. However, I admit I enjoyed Jim Bowden's "20 MLB Predictions for the 2020s". Not so much for #1 - "Seattle will win their first World Series" - or others that followed (all new stadiums must have retractable roofs, McGriff to HOF, Rachel Balkovec 1st female manager). It was the last two I liked reading: "Blue Jays become the team of the 2020s" and win 2 WS, including 2022.

Reality might be different, but it was nice to see those in black & white. FYI, you can subscribe to the Athletic for $1/month for 6 months.

https://theathletic.com/3143445/2022/02/23/bowden-20-mlb-predictions-for-the-2020s-from-player-feats-to-expansion-to-rule-changes-to-the-team-of-the-decade/

bpoz - Thursday, February 24 2022 @ 06:58 AM EST (#410850) #

Nice prediction John L.

I guessed 97 wins and a WS for the Jays about 2 weeks ago for 2022. The 97 wins will be hard to get I feel. The great performances of Vlad, Semien and Ray will be hard to replace. Ray and Semien are gone but I feel sure that they could not duplicate 2021's performance. The pen should be a lot better in 2022.

Gerry - Thursday, February 24 2022 @ 09:38 PM EST (#410851) #

Minor league camp opens tomorrow, Friday. 40 man roster players will not be there but the other minor leaguers will. There are reporters present so we will get some baseball content over the next few weeks.

ISLAND BOY - Friday, February 25 2022 @ 11:31 AM EST (#410852) #

Fangraphs projects the Jays to win 89 games in 2022. I think they'll win more than that if there is a full season, especially if the front office adds a few more players when the lockout ends, which I feel confident they will.

greenfrog - Friday, February 25 2022 @ 11:39 AM EST (#410853) #

I expect the Yankees to make some additions as well. The AL East competition is going to be fierce this year.

Michael - Friday, February 25 2022 @ 04:54 PM EST (#410854) #

A good Gammons piece that highlights George Springer and the Jays as posters for what should be the story in stead of work stoppage https://theathletic.com/3145130/2022/02/25/gammons-as-mlb-owners-and-players-talk-past-one-another-heres-what-i-want-to-see-coming-this-spring/

John Northey - Friday, February 25 2022 @ 06:10 PM EST (#410855) #

Odd how rumors are growing again that the Jays and Freeman might pair up once the lockout is over. Seems a big mismatch, but could work out with some creativity. Freeman is a gold glove 1B, Vlad isn't. Vlad wanted to play 3B pre-2021, could the Jays give him his wish but mix him in at DH a lot and put Espinal at 3B those days? Basically whenever Ryu is on the mound you put Vlad at DH and Espinal at 3B. Ryu 46.8% GB, Guasman 41.9%, Berrios 41.5%, Manoah 38.8%, Stripling 34.0%. K/9 Gausman 10.6, Manoah 10.2, Berrios 10.0, Stripling 8.8, Ryu 7.6. No point in checking Pearson as he has very few ML IP. These are all 2021 figures.

I'm sure the Jays are digging far deeper than this - checking how many balls are hit towards 3B with each starter on the mound for example. Vlad's UZR/150 at 3B was -14.6 in 2019/lifetime, at 1B 2.5 last year (net -0.1 lifetime). Freeman surprisingly was -1.7 last year and just 0.8 lifetime so on defense at 1B there isn't a big spread between them by that measure. In 2017 Atlanta played Freeman at 3B for 136 innings and he had a -3.3 UZR/150. Huh, maybe that is an option. The two of them get time at 3B/1B/DH depending on situation and how each handles each position. FYI: Biggio at 3B was bad, -9.6 lifetime (-8.8 in 2021) vs Espinal 13.9 lifetime/2021. So on just defense Espinal is worth roughly 2 wins vs any of the 3 options listed above. That is big.

Can a team win with a bad defensive 3B? Of course, it has happened a lot in MLB history. With Freeman's bat the Jays lineup would be a thing of beauty potentially. Of course, also an option is just mixing Vlad & Freeman at 1B/DH but then Springer wouldn't get 'days off' there. Funny, in the 80's defense wasn't as valued as today - the Expos played a poor 3B at SS for a few years (Hubie Brooks) and more or less got away with it when NL pitchers K'd only 5.5 per 9IP on average vs 9.0 this past year. It could work, and if it did boy would it be fun and scary at the same time.

The other question is Freeman worth $180 mil over 6 years (his reported asking price)? It would be for his age 32-37 seasons, needing 18 WAR minimum to make it worth it I estimate. 4.7 WAR last year, 3.6 per year lifetime. Lets say he goes down 1/2 a WAR a year as he is in his decline phase now. 4.2/3.7/3.2/2.7/2.2/1.7 = 17.7 total so right on the edge. $150 over 5 would make more sense (expected WAR of 16). But there is a big risk of a collapse too (as seen above in this thread). Easy to imagine giving $150 over 6, or even $160 without the Jays feeling too deeply fearful. $180 is a bridge too far IMO though. At age 30 it might have worked, but with each passing year it seems less likely, especially with the draft pick cost associated with signing him. My gut says it won't happen, but the Jays might push it to ensure the Yankees pay a full $180 over 6 just to make it as hard as possible for them to stay balanced on their budget (thus costing them any shot at holding Judge after 2021). My bottom line? Freeman should be worth his contract in the end, but without a lot of margin for error (IE: any drastic decline kills it and there is a big risk of that). He could fit here but only if the Jays feel Vlad could handle 3B again. Far better to just sign Bryant imo or trade for someone else who can play a strong 3B (Ramirez or Chapman). Heck, even spend some of that cash on Rodon to lock down the rotation. Freeman is a square peg for Toronto who'd have to be jammed into a round hole. It can be done, but there are better options. As a fan though, I'd take it.

greenfrog - Friday, February 25 2022 @ 07:47 PM EST (#410856) #

MLBTR: “ Perhaps more interesting, however, is Sherman’s suggestion that one theoretical Freeman suitor, the Blue Jays, has been given ownership approval for a “large increase in payroll” even after the additions of George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios over the past year-plus.”

Interesting!

BlueJayWay - Friday, February 25 2022 @ 08:29 PM EST (#410857) #

Just saw that on MLBTR. There's a twitter account I follow (bluejayshotstove) who claims to have a source or two inside the Jays organization. He's been right about things in the past couple of years before they became public so it might be legit. Anyway, at the beginning of the offseason his source indicated that Rogers had approved a large increase in payroll. Now we see someone in the media saying the same so it appears to have legs.

John Northey - Friday, February 25 2022 @ 09:30 PM EST (#410858) #

A large increase at this point is limited as to who can be added.

Freddie Freeman - 1B/DH - not an ideal fit, but does hit LH and played for team Canada at a WBC. Wants 6 years $180 mil
Carlos Correa - SS - not a perfect fit, but Bo could move to 2B or 3B I'm sure (probably 2B). Just done his age 27 season so still pretty young. Safe to say he wants a 10 year $325 mil deal (was offered 10/$275 by Tigers)
Trevor Story - see Correa, but lower years and $$$ - 6 years $126 mil is expected to be his price
Kris Bryant - 3B - now we are talking - ideal position to fill, but had a horrid 2020, surrounded by a 132 and 124 OPS+ in 19/21. Looks to be a 3-4 WAR guy now, entering his age 30 season. 6 years $160 mil is MLBTR estimate.

No other free agent hitters jump out at me (maybe Michael Conforto as a LH bat in the OF but comes with a QO).

Zack Greinke has the most WAR the past 3 years of still available FA pitchers. Appears to be a 1 year $15 mil deal needed. I'd grab him at that for the 5 hole.
Clayton Kershaw - everyone would be shocked if he doesn't stay in LA with the Dodgers, and if he leaves he'll probably go to the Angels. No QO so if he'd come here then he'd be the best choice as a LH starter with 3 Cy's on his resume. 1 year $20 mil is the expected cost, but to come here it'd take a 2 year deal minimum I'd figure.
Carlos Rodon - big injury risk guy, but if healthy he'd be sweet. 1 year $25 mil.
Kenley Jansen - A very good closer, asking for 2/$26 mil. Would make the pen super-tough and more injury protected.

So IMO the ideal ones to grab would be Jansen, Rodon, Bryant if possible. Fill the 5th starter, closer, and 3B holes - thus shifting Romero to setup, Mayza/Cimber/Richards/Yimi Garcia/Phelps all in setup roles too - there is a solid 7 man pen with Stripling the long man/6th starter. Pearson could then be in AAA being stretched out for the inevitable injuries.

The wild cards are trades (Ramirez ideally) or IFA like Seiya Suzuki who wants five years, $55MM it is estimated, but now expected to be closer to $80 mil with the Red Sox, Jays, Mariners, Cubs, and Giants all after him.

Boy I hope they get a deal done soon as this should be a lot of fun once done. It'll be like the AA in 2013 days when we never knew when another shoe would drop, but hopefully with a better ending.

earlweaverfan - Saturday, February 26 2022 @ 04:55 PM EST (#410859) #

John, I continue to be intrigued by the team’s willingness to ramp up the spending once the spring season starts, as the two close attempts to land Seager and Semien seemed to show.

Just a few questions:
• You didn’t mention Collin McHugh, yet I wonder if he mightn’t be the best bullpen option - what contract would it take to land him?
• Freeman is only being named in this list because he is a genuine heavy hitter and a LH bat; his fit as a position player is poor. LHBs we like at a needed position are scarce. Are there any better options who are RHBs but who hit equally well, no matter the handedness of the opposing pitcher? As in, that’s all we really should care about, right?
• I really like your Greinke option for the fifth starter - I didn’t know a one year contract was doable. Cheaper and less risky than Rodon. Then we could hope that Pearson could join the rotation in another year. Still, how much are you relying on that possibility for 2023? If Ryu is not renewed in 2024, we will have another hole with no obvious prospects getting close
• What is your sense of Bryant’s flexibility from a defensive standpoint? If we sign him for several years and then, say, Groshans, Martinez, Moreno or even Smith becomes a better cheaper option by 2023, what do we do with KB then?
• What would we need to do at OF if we could somehow land Suzuki (which I’d love). We would surely need to find a trade partner for (Grichuk plus cash), but even so, we would have four prime outfielders. We could make them split the DH role, but we would want to put Vlad and Bo there periodically. I have to believe we won’t sign Suzuki without a persuasive answer to that question
• That means we need Kirk to be our second catcher rather than a DH; what could we do with McGuire - is there any trade partner who might want him?

It’s all a fascinating jigsaw puzzle!

John Northey - Saturday, February 26 2022 @ 05:29 PM EST (#410860) #

For the OF I figure we'll see a trade if the Jays sign Suzuki - most likely Gurriel as he has the most value on the trade market due to his low contract (2 years barely over $10 mil total for those years) and his Cuban roots would make him attractive to Miami.

Collin McHugh is a good option I don't normally notice (not as into digging into bullpen guys as there are so many variables and his missing 2020 due to COVID makes him easier to miss). Entering his age 35 season, he has never been a closer (just 1 save lifetime) but has started (7 opener games last year for Tampa, 0 R over 12 innings) but 2017 was his last year as a regular starter (12 starts, 115 ERA+) and in 2019 had 8 starts (6.37 ERA as starter vs 2.67 in the pen). Funny thing is you look at his H/BB/K numbers and that ERA as a starter looks to be a very bad luck. Looking more into that year he was a starter at the beginning and was moved to the pen. He had 2 horrid games (6 1/3 IP 15 H 18 R 17 ER 4 BB 4 SO, 4 HR) and his 3rd worst start (4 R/ER in 6 IP) was mixed inbetween during a 4 start stretch that moved him to the pen from then on.

I'm guessing he'd be expensive due to that ability that any smart club would see - he easily could be reverted to a starter if needed I suspect. Still, given his age and how he missed 2020 entirely I could see a 2 year deal for $15 mil doing the trick. At that I'd grab him as he is basically an upgrade on Stripling IMO - a guy who can spot start and do multiple innings in the pen. That frees up Stripling to be used in a trade (to someone desperate for pitching who thinks his mid-season hot stretch was for real) or to be kept as the last guy in the pen if needed. Sign Suzuki and maybe you can combine Gurriel Jr and Stripling with some prospects to get a young starter from Miami to cover the 5 hole in the rotation or Chapman from Oakland for 3B.

John Northey - Saturday, February 26 2022 @ 09:03 PM EST (#410861) #

earlweaverfan - when it comes to Bryant he has tons of flexibility that he has shown already - last year he played 48 games in LF, 19 in CF, 12 at 1B, and even 2 innings at SS. That would make him a great fit, outside of the obsession some have about getting a LH bat (he bats right). I really see him as nearly ideal - only costs cash, no draft pick, no prospects, only whatever he demands as a free agent. Entering his age 30 season it is reasonable to expect 3-4 years of solid production. His 2022 projections are between 2.6 fWAR to 3.5 (Steamer low, The BAT high, ZiPS has him at 3.1). If you go by a 0.5 WAR drop per year you get 3.1, 2.6, 2.1, 1.6, 1.1, 0.6 over the next 6 years. An article at FanGraphs has him going to Toronto for 4 years $90 mil. Projections used are 3.0 in 2022, 2.6, 2.0, 1.4 = 9.0 WAR over 4 years. Dan Szymborski's system projects a $67 mil contract but $90 sounds more likely to both him and me. The 6 year deal listed on BR is probably more 'pie in the sky'. I could easily see the Jays going to $100 over 5, or $110 even. It would be a solid fit. Ramirez being the perfect fit but this wouldn't prevent that, just make it less likely.

So, how would a Bryant deal work out? He'd be at 3B most of the time, but would go to 1B when Vlad DH's letting Espinal play at 3B with his very strong defense. I suspect whenever Ryu pitches. He could go to CF to give Springer time off too, but his CF defense was ugly (-12.2 UZR/150 - we are talking Vlad at 3B level) so odds are he wouldn't be there much, more in LF to give Gurriel (or Hernandez if Gurriel is traded/Suzuki signed) a day off.

Hmm... the more I look at it the better a Bryant at 3B, Collin McHugh in the pen, sign Suzuki for RF and a trade to get a real CF to backup Springer/be a part time DH looks. Trade candidates would be Kirk, Gurriel (if Suzuki signed), Grichuk (if anyone would take him), and some minor leaguers outside of Moreno & Martinez. Wonder if Tampa would trade Kiermaier (then he'd be in CF most of the time, Springer DH a lot) for a reasonable price? Nah. Steven Duggar in SF is very strong in CF almost identical to Keirmaier stats wise on defense but offense not so good with a 107 OPS+ last year (good) but 84 lifetime - however he is just reaching arb. Mallex Smith who the Jays have signed is poor on defense (negative UZR/150 in CF and RF) but has high speed and might need better positioning mostly (that speed in CF should result in good defense, and he was solid in TB but poor in Seattle), however Smith's bat sucks big time so you don't want him out there more than for an inning or two thus avoiding his hitting.

Mike Green - Sunday, February 27 2022 @ 09:18 AM EST (#410862) #

I cancelled my MLB subscription and gave the reason "blackout restrictions", as there was no option "I don't want to support union-busting of any kind, and least of all by billionaires".

bpoz - Monday, February 28 2022 @ 10:54 AM EST (#410863) #

There is some minor league content from their ST. Tiedemann, J Murray, Roberse. 3 days in a row reports.

bpoz - Monday, February 28 2022 @ 11:42 AM EST (#410864) #

Also C's Plus Baseball. H Danner interview. I would love for Danner to develop a Change and become a starter but the extra workload may be a problem.

jgadfly - Monday, February 28 2022 @ 12:57 PM EST (#410865) #

LH hitting 1st baseman ... Wouldn't that bring a 2 year Joey Votto 'rental' into the conversation ? Expiring contract next year vs Freeman long term plus loss of draft pick & lowered international pool monies available. Include a Cinci pitcher or 3rd baseman in the deal and take $25M plus off of the Reds budget for "How much?" in prospects ... selling Votto on Toronto with possible World Series vs another write off season with Cinci to waive no trade. Also possibly include a subsidized Grichuk salary and sign Pillar for Cf/4th OF duties.

Leaside Cowboy - Monday, February 28 2022 @ 09:41 PM EST (#410866) #

"Should the Jays do $300 million deals?"

Yes. Vladdy is beginning his age 23 season. 10-year contract is a no-brainer. More years? No. Less years? Maybe.

scottt - Tuesday, March 01 2022 @ 08:50 AM EST (#410867) #

Vladdy could make around 80M from the Jays just though arbitration if he keeps his production.
That would position him for a 350-400M contract in 4 years.

85bluejay - Tuesday, March 01 2022 @ 11:20 AM EST (#410870) #

From the reports I've read it looks like Rob Manfred is going to be able to take another victory lap - How Tony Clark is able to keep his job is a mystery.

John Northey - Tuesday, March 01 2022 @ 12:15 PM EST (#410871) #

Funny latest I've read appear to be more towards the players side. 12 team playoff, CBT penalties same as now, MLB still very much wants an international draft, and is proposing it. That would be a major PA give, MLB is willing to drop direct draft pick compensation for free agents. Also major, MLB is at 5 picks on amateur draft lottery, MLB prearb bonus pool is at $25 million (players want $100, owners started at $10). CBT at $220 mil (up from $214 but well short of players $245 goal). $675k minimum salary. Progress. Lets hope a deal gets done today.

ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, March 01 2022 @ 01:17 PM EST (#410873) #

Apparently ESPN has offered MLB $85 million for a 12 team playoff and $100 million for a 14 team playoff.

The way a 12 team playoff would run is that the top two teams in each league would get a bye and the other four teams in each league would play each other in a seeding determined by points. Last year the Jays would have been seeded 6th and would have played the White Sox in a three game series.

Nigel - Tuesday, March 01 2022 @ 01:33 PM EST (#410874) #

I'll repeat something that I said a while ago about unions - don't view them as monolithic organizations who bargain on behalf of all players (notwithstanding what the applicable laws may say about the union's duties to its members). Unions are like every other organization with large memberships, they are actually controlled by a subset of its membership. Funnily enough, its generally the interests of that subset of the membership that is reflected in any settlement. My only point being, you generally can't look at a settlement and say "how does x (leader of the union) keep their job?" - generally, the settlement is exactly what the interested members who direct union leadership were prepared to accept. I have no clue which group of players controls the MLB players union today but, for example, the union contracts in the NFL and NBA are heavily weighted to benefitting the star players at the expense of the middle and lower classes of players because it has been the stars (and their agents) who have largely driven those unions.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, March 01 2022 @ 07:01 PM EST (#410875) #

Lost in all this is that the owners have and always will have all the power. MLB is their property and their investment. The idea that players and owners are at fair level in negotiations is flawed. Clarke is always at a disadvantage because his only leverage is to hold out which also consequently means holding out on paychecks. Not much leverage.

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