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I can't imagine too much has changed with the Astros since we last saw them. It was just last week, after all.

Jose Altuve (strained hamstring) is still out. He's beginning a rehab assignment this weekend and will probably return in time for Houston's series with Seattle next week. Closer Ryan Pressly (knee inflammation) has begun throwing, but not yet ready to return. The Jays will see Luis Garcia and Jose Uquidy again, along with southpaw Framber Valdez (Justin Verlander pitched last night.) The offense has been carried by Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, and Yordan Alvarez so far. But rookie Jeremy Pena, filling the expensive shoes of Carlos Correa, is giving a good account of himself ()the Jays have certainly noticed.) And one assumes that Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel will start hitting as well. Eventually. Next week, perhaps?


Fri 29 Apr - Urquidy (1-1, 5.52) vs Kikuchi (0-1, 3.75)
Sat 30 Apr - Garcia (1-0, 4.60) - vs Berrios (1-0, 4.91)
Sun 1 May - Valdez (1-1, 3.15) vs Gausman (1-1, 2.19)
Houston at Toronto, Apr 29 - May 1 | 123 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#413091) #
FB has reverse platoon numbers.

It's been suggested that Kikuchi needs to throw more fastballs.
Will he do that?

Spifficus - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#413094) #
I know he gave up a HR, but to my eyes, simplifying things looks like a qualified success. He looked like he actually had command. There was one pitch - the 1-2 FB to Bregman before the HR on the slider - that I thought, "he flew open".
greenfrog - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#413095) #
It’s maddening to watch Kikuchi right now. Hopefully he will figure it out over the course of the season.
greenfrog - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#413096) #
It’s maddening to watch Kikuchi right now. Hopefully he will figure it out over the course of the season.
Spifficus - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#413097) #
I did say qualified success...
BlueJayWay - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#413098) #
Kikuchi not giving them very competitive starts here
Nigel - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#413099) #
As a closet M’s fan here in Vancouver - I can safely say that this isn’t just now. This is who Kikuchi has been since he arrived. Obviously, he’s struggling with BB’s more than normal but this is merely exaggerated form of himself rather than an anomaly. He’s really only had one short stretch of MLB success.
Four Seamer - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#413100) #
Maybe they ought to send Kikuchi down on Sunday….
Nigel - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#413101) #
I’m obviously not suggesting that. Merely, that expecting more than a reasonably competent 5th starter with some upside if Walker can unlock something, isn’t reasonable. The stuff looks so tasty though:)
grjas - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#413102) #
Finally they have to pitch to VG…..
Spifficus - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#413103) #
I think that baseball will get sent down Sunday, after it stops bouncing around the stands.
greenfrog - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#413105) #
The lineup will really start to click when Bichette starts hitting (and, of course, when Teo and Jansen return).

Bo is currently hitting .207/.233/.299
subculture - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#413106) #
I'm not sure what I find more frustrating. Kikuchi's lack of confidence in throwing his fastball, and inability to throw it for strikes, or Bo's inability to not swing at balls. I think yesterday he struck-out in at at-bat where the pitcher threw 5 balls and no strikes. I don't remember if I've seen that before.
Kikuchi needs to channel Ray's aggressiveness (heck maybe he needs tighter pants). Keep throwing the fastball until they hit it! Then throw it some more!
What's worse with Bo, is his over aggressiveness can be contagious... and definitely doesn't help the other Jay's batters see any pitches.
All that said, go Jays!! I'm digging the Bo Flow bobblehead :)
grjas - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#413107) #
They should consider switching Bichette and Espinal. VG might get more pitches to hit if he actually had someone on base, and it would take the pressure off Bichette till he straightens things out. He’s really been a rally crusher.
greenfrog - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#413108) #
You have to think that Bichette will sort himself out. He has a pretty long track record of success as a hitter. Sometimes a good hitter just goes through a prolonged spring slump. I remember when it happened to David Ortiz. Checking his stats, in 2009 he had a wRC+ of 56 in April and 37 in May. He finished with a wRC+ of 100. He had an awful start in 2010 as well — wRC+ of 38 in April. He finished that season with a wRC+ of 134.
Polite Nate - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#413109) #
Bichette's struggles seem to me to be a preview of future Bichette. His approach is so aggressive and violent that once he starts to lose some reaction time and/or bat speed, it could get real ugly. He convinced me with last season that its sustainable for now, but among all the candidates for extensions he's my lowest priority.
Arden Zwelling had a bit there on Tapia that confirmed my feeling that he's been making some pretty good contact lately and elevating the ball. I'm still hopeful for him. I'm done with Zimmer though.

Kikuchi is throwing plenty of fastballs, he just can't throw them for strikes consistently. Everyone is clearly sitting on the offspeed stuff. You can see what the team is dreaming on though.
Collins is cooling off a bit, as expected, but I still like his approach at the plate. He's swinging at the right pitches, just kind of whiffing on them, which is maybe troubling in its own way.
christaylor - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#413110) #
After all the close games and comebacks, a blowout is vaguely comforting -- such is baseball. That typed, it is still only the 6th. Bo is clearly of,f, but his all-out approach seems like one that would be sensitive to the short spring training.
Magpie - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#413111) #
It's still April, everybody. Houston came into tonioght's game with Yuli Gurriel (.203) and Kyle Tucker (.191). The Yankees have Josh Donaldson (.197), Tampa Bay has Brandon Lowe (.183), Boston has Enrique Hernandez (.197), Baltimore has Cedric Mullins (.205), Minnesota has Carlos Correa (.200), Kansas City has Whit Merrifield (.127), Chicago has Adam Engel (.188), Cleveland has Franmil Reyes (.145), Detroit has Jonathan Schoop (.159), the Angels have Anthony Rendon (.213), Seattle has Jesse Winker (.159), Texas has Marcus Semien (.158)

Relax, I say.
Magpie - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#413112) #
I left out Oakland because I'm not sure who's supposed to be good on that team.
subculture - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#413113) #
Yep to be clear, I remain high on Bo and believe he will have a productive multiple all-star career (including above average defence). He might even be my favourite Blue Jay. Definitely would swap him and Espinal now though.
I also still like the Kikuchi signing, and believe Walker can make him a quality #3 type starter.
It's just frustrating to watch when the current problems appear to be mental, as it's clear the tools are there for both of them. When I watched Kikuchi blow away the Jays (I believe last year, vs Ryu) he had future ACE written all over him.
Of course, it's always possible there are subtle injuries hampering them, or also off-field pressures we're not aware of.
Magpie - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#413114) #
Missed my chance. I was all set to start a pool on what would happen first: Kirk's first strikeout or his first extra base hit.
lexomatic - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#413115) #
<br>just liked at Bichette's statcast stats.
Hrs hitting thr ball on the ground a LOT launch angle 1.8 with next lowest last year at 7.3
Hitting the ball hard 50.8 % hard hit
But his bb% are bad and k% highest. But with all that his expected slash 281 BA and 453 SLG
So he's swinging at garbage, missing it a lot, and not hitting it well (lowest sweet spot and barrel %)
So unlucky and frustrated
hypobole - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#413116) #
Maybe there is hope for Tapia. Missed the Zwelling bit, but I checked his statcast. Running an average EV of 90 mph vs last years 85.7. Best ever was 87.6 in 2019. Running career highs in barrel% and Hard Hit%.

Chasing almost half the O-Zone pitches will have to stop though. A sub 2% BB rate is atrocious.
John Northey - Friday, April 29 2022 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#413117) #
21 games in. Bo hitting 200/226/289 Lets check some history...
  • Jose Bautista 2010: ended up with 54 HR, but at game 21 was hitting 234/344/481 with 4 HR, low point was after 11 though (175/358/300).
  • Robbie Alomar's 1st year here (91) he was 256/315/366 after 21 games age 23.
  • Tony Fernandez 1986 set the record for most hits by a SS (213 since broken, I think A-Rod holds it now with 215 at age 20), but after 21 games was hitting just 261/301/318.
Didn't find anyone as bad as Bo, but slow starts happen even to HOF'ers at a young age. Even to guys in years they would do great things. Yeah, Bo's slump is pretty horrid and a break of some kind might be needed or something. But it is rare to go from a 121 OPS+ to a 61 (now less) in just one year. Odds are this will turn around soon for him.
scottt - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#413120) #
.200 is hardly a slump. It looks worse because it's early and he doesn't walk.

Break would be to drop him in the order, I guess, but the team hasn't lost a series yet, so that would be premature.

scottt - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#413121) #
I wonder if there is a communication problem with Kikuchi.
Overall, he's not too different from Merryweather and Pearson.
Great stuff, poor execution.

grjas - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#413122) #
Glad to see the top 3 starters are eating up innings as otherwise with Kikuchi and Stripling, the BP would be spent. Stripling’s getting his pitch count up but having him as a starter exposes Thornton as a mediocre multi inning guy. Unfortunate Ryu went down before Pearson is back, as Nate could have at least replaced Thornton.
bpoz - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#413123) #
Very early in the season and some teams have had great starts. Extrapolating wins NYY 113, LAA 108, Tor 100, TB 97. Much will change.
bpoz - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#413124) #
The pen has been very good. However Y Garcia and T Richards have had 1 bad game each. These things happen.
hypobole - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#413127) #
Kirk's K ruined Magpie's poll, but the XBH drought is concerning.

Last year, he hit the ball hard. 92.3 EV better than any Jays regular other than Vlad. 14.7 degree Launch Angle. 11% barrel, 46.9% Hard.

This year, 86.9 EV. Only Katoh and Heineman lower. 5.8 degree LA. 2.2% barrel, 32.6% Hard.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#413128) #
Tampa, Yankees and now Boston have all had a shot at beating up Baltimore while we don't play them until a few weeks into June. I'd be happy if we can go 3-3 in this series and the next against the Astros and Yankees. It's a brutal schedule to start the season.
John Northey - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#413129) #
Heh.  The panic over Bo is largely due to it being the start of the season. 
If Vlad hit, over 25 games, 242/330/323 would you worry that his power has vanished?  That the league figured him out?  Well, that is what he did LAST YEAR August 3rd to 28th.

Bo is in a slump, of that there is no doubt.  It is an ugly, ugly one.  But will he come out of it?  I'd bet strongly he will. 
hypobole - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#413130) #
Should Bo be hitting in front of Vlad until he does come out of his slump?

Last year Vlad led off an inning just over 14% of his PA's. This year it's over 20%.
Magpie - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#413131) #
Summer of George!
hypobole - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#413132) #
Fantastic Berrios having a 3 up 3 down to set the tone. Our pitchers did not have even one of those last night in the 9 innings.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#413133) #
“Siri, hit a ground ball to third.”

Hey, this technology works better than I expected.
hypobole - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#413134) #
Fantastic Berrios having a 3 up 3 down to set the tone.

And then another 7 innings of baserunners before Romano's clean 9th.

Great move by Charlie to get tossed and take the umpires attention away from Vlad. Don't have to do it Lou Pinella style to make it work.
John Northey - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#413136) #
Very interesting game - roboumps can't come soon enough, and I"m sure with some work they could use them for checked swings too (bat crosses the front of the plate, it is a strike - simple way to measure, easy to track with technology I'd figure, make it simple for hitters and pitchers to know what is and isn't).  Eventually I see human umpires becoming more there to police the players than anything else - IE: ensure no fights happen, keep up the appearance of human umpiring.

I was glad when I heard that Vlad was only in trouble for tossing the bat down - that there is a fine for that now - not that he was tossed.  Smart on Montoyo to take no chances and charge out to ensure Vlad wasn't tossed.  He is getting more respect from me daily out there.  The 4 managers to get the Jays into the playoffs were very different people - Bobby Cox, Cito Gaston, John Gibbons, Charlie Montoyo.  Cox the most ejections in MLB history, Gaston known as so calm people wondered if he fell asleep, Gibbons the southern 'gee wiz' guy, and now Montoyo who is always calm even when mad it seems and fits in perfectly with this team.  Each manager fit their teams personality quite nicely which might be why they all made the playoffs.  Jimy Williams grated on everyone and everything, Hartsfield was given horrid teams, same for Tosca.  Fregosi was a caretaker, Farrell was supposed to lead the Jays to glory but failed, Mattick was a teacher, Martinez was a broadcaster put in the mangers chair to try to sell a bad team to the public, and Tim Johnson was almost a playoff guy but lied too much thus got just one year.  Tenance and Queen just covered for Cito when ill (91) and when fired at the end of '97.

I figure Montoyo will be here for a few more years - I hope 10+, as odds are he'll be here until the team starts to suck again.  Vlad and the rest seem to like playing for him, and in truth that is the #1 job for a manager - keep the clubhouse happy and do what is needed to win.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#413137) #
Also, how about Springer, carrying the offense in another close ballgame while the team is shorthanded. OPS of 947.
uglyone - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#413138) #
Bo should be moved to 2B tbh.

Espinal obviously a better fielder.

And it would let Bo concentrate more on hitting.
bpoz - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#413139) #
Another 1 run win.
scottt - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#413140) #
Is Garcia in need of rest or just in the doghouse?
hypobole - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#413143) #
About 10 days ago (redacted) pointed out the guy he wanted the Jays to sign had been incredible (1.1 fWAR). Instead people got the LHB they wanted so badly.

So how did they do the next ten games (prior to both with an 0 for 3, 1 BB performance today)?

Tapia .286/.296/.405
Suzuki .189/.268/.270

Not saying that Suzuki won't outperform Tapia, but may not be by as much as some believe. Or maybe he will. Early April judgements are often poor judgements.
John Northey - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#413144) #
Bo getting 2 hits has to start to cut some pressure.  Before today his BABIP was just 258 with an ISO of 089.  Both grossly lower than his career numbers (339 and 194).
But his exit velocity is 91.7 vs career 90.9, hard hit % is 53.1% vs 46.8% career.

The big shift I see is ground balls - 59.4% vs career 48.3%.  Funny thing is that should be a plus with the dead ball - balls that would've been homers last year are flyouts this year so ideally you'd shift to more on the ground, going against the shift, stuff like that.  Which Bo is actually good at.  IMO his biggest problem so far is a mix of bad luck and needing to work the count better (3 BB vs 26 K's before today).  Luck he can't do anything about - that is just a matter of time.  But his strike zone judgement clearly needs a lot of work.  Put Bo's skills with Biggio's eye and you'd have something amazing.
John Northey - Saturday, April 30 2022 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#413145) #
hypobole - The thing with those stats is that is probably the best we can hope for from Tapia, while Suzuki was in a slump.  Tapia I still see as release bait - I'm sure the Jays are looking into trades for either Zimmer or Tapia the moment Teoscar is healthy.  Going with 5 OF in this day and age is silly, much like going with 3 catchers.  However, having both bench OF'ers be so similar is really silly - both are LH speedy guys who can't hit - Zimmer the better fielder, Tapia the better (for what it is worth) hitter.

After today Tapia is still a 243/260/329 "hitter" while Zimmer is even worse (071/103/179).  Bo is at 213/237/298 and Kirk 245/339/245 - both have OPS lower than Tapia (!!!).  I sure would've bet against that after 22 games, especially if you told me Tapia wasn't having a miracle year (IE: hitting way better than anyone expected).

What is weird is how the Jays have these catchers who are hitters in the minors, come up and suddenly become decent on defense while their bats go ice cold.  Jansen first (I suspect most forget he was thought of as bat first when he first came up), and now Kirk.  Kirk's defensive runs saved last year was -3, this year +2 so far in less than 1/3rd of the innings.  His framing went from a negative to a positive this year (and boy can you see it in games too).  I wonder if he was worried he'd become a pure DH if he didn't do something so he focused much like Jansen did a few years ago on defense to the point that it has hurt his bat.  Of course, with the dead ball this year it might have been the ideal time as power doesn't matter as much if most fly balls are now outs.  Instead he has just 6 K's in 53 AB's which is excellent.  More walks than K's is always nice.  But zero extra base hits.  Even Katoh and Zimmer each have more extra base hits (1 each) than Kirk.  The only guy doing worse is Biggio with his one single all year (ugh - now that is a collapse).

When the team is fully healthy who do you keep, who do you dump?  Right now Biggio would have to be on the 'dump' pile (he has options so you can), Zimmer is the low man in the OF I figure (no options though, same for Tapia).  Heineman despite his 875 OPS (3 for 8) will go down when Jansen is healthy.  It'll be interesting to see what happens when Biggio, Hernandez, Ryu, Jansen, Borucki, Pearson, Saucedo, all return.  Hernandez is probably first to come back, the pitchers will probably need a rehab game or two first, as will Jansen. Biggio might find himself on it for a long time (healthy or not).  Saucedo will go right back to the minors once healthy.

Now its May 1st - rosters go down 2 slots so that shifts things - safe to say Capra goes back to the minors without an appearance (sucks for him).  So Thornton or Vasquez or Francis (my #1 expectation is Francis as he has only faced 3 batters) should be down as well I suspect.
  • Hernandez back - down goes Zimmer (released?) I'm guessing.  They could send down Katoh but I see him as more useful than Zimmer in pretty much every way but CF defense.
  • Ryu back, down goes Thornton (Stripliing back to pen) unless already down (then Vasquez or Francis)
  • Borucki back, down goes whichever of the 3 I listed as downers - Thornton/Vasquez/Francis goes is still kicking
  • Jansen = minors for Heinman
  • Pearson will go back to the minors to rehab before getting another shot.
  • Saucedo = healthy goes right back to AAA
  • Biggio = Katoh but Katoh I'd say is more useful right now, so Biggio to minors for rehab first, then the Jays have their first real tough roster choice where traditional baseball logic says one thing (Biggio has been around a few years now), but what the guy has done says another.
Of course, at the end of May it goes back to 13-13 pitcher hitter so if Biggio is held down until then (IL then rehab) he could just come up and shift the 14th pitcher, 9th reliever down instead.
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#413147) #
Brought this up a while back, but it's become even more extreme. Prior to Saturday, Jays 680 PA's vs RHP's were the most in baseball. Yankees next at 596. No surprise, Jays 104 PA's vs LHP are the fewest in baseball. 21 teams over 190.

Last year Kirk vs RHP 79 wRC+, vs LHP 163 wRC+
Last year Bo vs RHP 111 wRC+, vs LHP 156 wRC+

Seems facing a constant diet of RHP's has really affected Kirk especially, but probably also Bo.

greenfrog - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#413148) #
For sure, April judgments can be wildly off. But Suzuki is still at 0.8 fWAR on the season (same as Vladdy and slightly better than Springer). Tapia is at -0.1 fWAR.
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#413149) #
But Suzuki is still at 0.8 fWAR on the season

As of this morning, Suzuki is now at 0.7 fWAR, so -0.4 fWAR since the OP. Is Tapia good? No, he isn't. But since the OP, Tapia's weak production has been better than Suzuki's. And also as of this morning, it's now Springer at 1.1 fWAR. All April stats.

It was the LHH comment that I felt unnecessary. Some people hated the trade, some, myself included, were accepting of the trade. No one I recall said anything akin to "That's the guy I wanted."
scottt - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#413150) #
Catchers don't play every day and lots of players do better in AAA than in MLB where everybody watches every video so it's impossible to hide flaws. Kirk doesn't like to strike out and will reach for outside balls with 2 strikes. Also, they just need him to hit it on the ground, so they know where in the strike zone to throw it.

And players who work hard on defense can improve. Not too surprising.
Kirk is great with low pitches.

They'll cut a position player tomorrow and another one when Hernandez returns maybe in 3 days.

Offense is down. All 30 teams are now using humidors. The pitchers are complaining of lack of uniformity in the balls. Some say the seams are higher again.

scottt - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#413151) #
That's part of the Tapia calculus. You can pitch hit for him and a right handed bat next to him has a higher chance of facing a lefty reliever.

Springer has been so good that you don't want him chasing fly balls on turf every day.
That's also part of the calculus.

grjas - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#413152) #
Interesting article on Gausman with amazing stats and a fascinating overlay of his fastball and splitter. Best stat- “Gausman's splitter chase rate is the highest for any pitcher on any pitch type in any calendar month in the entire pitch-tracking era, which goes back to 2008.”
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#413153) #
“For sure, April judgments can be wildly off. But Suzuki is still at 0.8 fWAR on the season (same as Vladdy and slightly better than Springer). Tapia is at -0.1 fWAR.”

The fact that your numbers being used show that Suzuki is an equal player to Vlad means nothing to you? Different variations of WAR are a good tool generally speaking, but personally I find too many people try to use the stat as a way to justify a persons worth vs another. When that happens it becomes obvious, to me at least, that WAR is a flawed tool for evaluating the values of players. At a certain point we need to acknowledge the limits of a general tool like WAR, unless of course you really believe that someone like Kiermaier can be a positive WAR player while posting a .200 average and batting at the bottom of the order.

hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#413154) #
Sunday notes. Includes Borucki talking his cutter/ slider combo (is that a clutter, slitter, slutter?)

also this link in there:

Montreal Rays and Vancouver A's?
greenfrog - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#413155) #
dalimon5, what metrics are you relying on to establish that Vladdy has been more valuable than Suzuki this season?
Gerry - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#413156) #
Vinny Capra starts today (before likely being sent down after the game).
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#413157) #
The completely old fashioned, biased one called “common sense.” I’ve been adamant about the limits of WAR. Is it a bad stat? Is it wrong? No and no. Is it more than a single stat that can justify or settle a players value? In my opinion, also no. It is the single most overused stat in sport and the go-to stat to use when trying to advocate for one player over another.

The highest gripe I have with WAR, aside from subjective defensive accuracy, is the fact that it is based on random sample sizes. Who cares if player A has more value over 30 games over player B? That’s useless info after those 30 games since the nature of baseball is that there are peaks and valleys to a players performance. This also is a problem over longer sample sizes. Who cares about a players measured performance if you know that a players performance is constantly changing year over year based on adjustments? If front offices followed WAR when signing players then that would assume they think that player is consistent enough to maintain that level of performance. That’s called a superstar, and part of the reason for big contracts is that consistency. For everyone else like. Bautista or Gausman, you don’t rely on WAR when trying to see what their potential can be. By the same logic, the front office won’t be looking at WAR between Suzuki and Tapia, even if they overlooked the acquisition and salary cost.
Cracka - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#413158) #
Vinny Capra will earn almost as much money this weekend as he will for an entire season in AAA. 3 days on an MLB roster at the minimum salary is worth about $11,500, compared to the AAA minimum salary of $700/week (about $14,700 for the season). I doubt this factors much into the roster decisions, but it's a nice financial bonus for a guy who signed for $1000.
bpoz - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#413159) #
Thanks Cracka. Nice to hear that.
lexomatic - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#413160) #
<br>Dalimon you might want to go look at how statistics use WAR and not people on this site. Your argument also suggests the uselessness of ANY statistical measurement. And sure, none of them are necessary to understand or enjoy baseball.
Front offices have access to many stats we do not have, proprietary ones even. So whether they make decisions on WAR or not isn't relevant to its usefulness as a stat

Incidentally pretty much every field has a problem with people looking for some unifying theory, this is similar.

I find it useful. Not without its flaws, but it is changing the components of calculation as more reliable data becomes available.

This feels like more of an attack then intended, so hopefully you don't understand it that way. But you don't need to like WAR or thinknits accurate. I just find objections hard when statistical valuation of players is a large part of the game
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#413161) #
Kevin Goldstein had access to Houston's proprietary stats. He stated WAR is fairly accurate, except for catchers. Players and owners are going to use a WAR type stat to determine who gets how much of the pre-arb player pool. Pitching value is an issue, with 2 totally different systems in use. But yeah, comparing one player to another over a small sample is fraught with error.
jerjapan - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#413162) #
Yeah, it is great to see that reward for Capra.  I think there should be more of those types of moves.  not like a guy like Capra gets claimed when moved off the 40 man, and if he does, that's a bonus for the player and the org - like the Raps use their 905 time.  They don't have the rights to most of the players, any time can claim one at any time, but they also have a rep for development and as a ladder to the bigs.  Gotta imagine that attracts a lot of AAAA talent. 

How much money are we saving in the Tapia deal?  I never saw a specific figure, but that's as much a part of the deal as the player and his fit with the team. as is Pinto, the prospect and a worthy flier to my mind. 
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#413163) #
"Toronto will pay Colorado $9,716,333 – $5,383,333 this year and $4,333,333 in 2023 – covering a little more than half the $18,666,666 owed to Grichuk, who has salaries of $9,333,333 in each of the next two seasons.

Tapia agreed this week to a $3.95 million, one-year contract and is eligible for free agency after the 2023 season."

So no real savings this year. Savings if they dump Tapia after this season though.
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#413164) #
No offence taken Lexo, just like to roll my eyes and post every time it’s posted “player A has x war vs our player who has x war. Useless in this application. Happens every season after a few months.
John Northey - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#413165) #
With WAR I see a blunt tool. Great for careers, for measuring drafts where you have to mix hitters, pitchers, fielders. But lousy inseason. Not good for fractions. Spreads of under 1 WAR are meaningless imo. In season I prefer stuff like OPS+.
uglyone - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#413166) #
These tiny WAR samples are useless.

And crazy graphic they just showed about the 17 balls called strikes on vladdy this year. He's getting jobbed.
Magpie - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#413167) #
He stated WAR is fairly accurate

WAR has its uses but accuracy is not one of its characteristics, more or less by definition. Accuracy is a valid criteria for measurements or counts of actual things, like runs scored. But WAR is an estimate of value based on what will always be a theory of what constitutes value. The argument must always be about how good an estimate one thinks it is, which in turn depends on what one thinks of the various components of the theory. Accuracy doesn't enter into it. How could it? WAR is conceptual, like size - height and weight can be accurate, but size is a concept. Is Jordan Romano bigger than Vladimir Guerrero? Depends what you mean by "big."
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#413168) #
"Magpie, how this "fairly much in line with proprietary stats for one team in the time he worked for that one team."?
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#413169) #
Nice play, but somebody please tell Bo he has the best fielder in baseball playing beside him…no reason to range that far, kid.
Eephus - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#413170) #
He might be struggling mightily, but Bo’s flair for the dramatic is surely intact.
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#413171) #
Jays finally see a lefty and the guy had been dominant. Great job Zimmer pulling a Homer Simpson and even better by Bo.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#413172) #
Huge hit for Bo. Love to see that.

At the moment, Suzuki is hitting .282/.402/.535. He plays right field -- maybe he's average defensively. Vladdy is hitting .275/.341/.525. He plays first base -- maybe he's average defensively.

I don't see how it's "common sense" that Vladdy is having the better season.
Magpie - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#413173) #
in line with proprietary stats for one team

Well, it all sounds like it means that WAR (an estimate based on a theory) matches up well with their own proprietary estimate based on a theory. I'm pretty sure no one is actually counting and adding up portions of wins by individual players.
Magpie - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#413174) #
Suzuki and Vlad

It's going to be even more complicated than that. For starters, the Cubs have played a big chunk of their schedule against Pittsburgh and Colorado, who don't exactly shut the opposition down.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#413175) #
It’s true. That could possibly account for the 71-point OPS advantage Suzuki currently has over Vlad. I’m not sure it rises to the level of a obviously better season for Vlad to date (though Vlad may well have the better stats by season’s end).
Magpie - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#413176) #
At this very moment, someone from the Jays PR team will be trying to persuade the official scorer to give Kirk a hit on that last play. Resistance is not futile.
Magpie - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#413177) #
Of course, strength of schedule is itself a very hairy concept. Playing against Tampa Bay last May was a very different experience than playing against them in April. (And the same would apply to indivudual players, if you were tracking that. Batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu last September was much more pleasurable for the hitters than it was in July.)
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#413178) #
I don't see how it's "common sense" that Vladdy is having the better season.“

Greenfrog it’s very simple. You started your argument by pointing out that Suzuki was the better target than Tapia, insinuating we would be better off with him than Tapia. You then started saying that Suzuki currently had a similar WAR to Vlad and a better WAR than Springer, as if to say if Suzuki is playing at that pace then we could have another player of that calibre instead of Suzuki. After being called out by some posters that WAR through 30 games is not accurate enough to put Suzuki on the same level as Springer or Vlad, you are now coming back and asking for clarity on why Vlad is having the better season vs Suzuki. Again, you’re missing the point…it’s not about who has a higher WAR … it’s 30 games…

You’ve done this every year… you target a player the Jays didn’t resign or sign and then use WAR to show that the Jays could have that player instead of who they decided to go with. You’ve done this with Bergen, Dwight Smith Jr and of course with Grichuk’s bad contract, pointing out the savings the team could have had. It’s ironic that now that the Jays traded him away you are complaining about the player he was traded for. You got what you wanted, they got rid of Grichuk, essentially replaced him with Springer and made Tapia the 4th OF.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#413179) #
dalimon5, every year you work yourself up into a very public lather, usually when confronted with rational arguments that counter your “common sense” positions (or a reference to Keith Law). We’re all familiar with it. It’s an obvious ploy to distract from a weak position and it’s simply not persuasive at all.
Magpie - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#413180) #
Had 'em all the way.

A couple of random observations. Gausman is taking this whole idea of being a strike-thrower to levels not dreamt of in our philosophy. Bradley Zimmer makes Jonathan Davis look like an actual major-league hitter, even if he is a better defender. It's kind of weird that Raimel Tapia shares the team lead in GIDP with Kirk and Vlad. Fast LH batters aren't supposed to do that, although Tapia does hit everything, hits it on the ground, and maybe isn't quite as fast as he's supposed to be.
Gerry - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#413181) #
I thought that catch by Springer in the ninth was fantastic, didn't think he was going to get there.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#413182) #
So far, this team reminds me of 2006, with shades of 1992.

I hope the roof opens soon!
scottt - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#413183) #
Suzuki, having not played in MLB is a gamble.
The Jays were willing to bet some money there but not as much as other teams.
The Jays were looking for a middle of the order left bat, a good defensive thirdbaseman and replacing 2 good starters, one a Cy Young winner.
So, the Jays bet heavily on Gausman, traded for Chapman and took a gamble on Suzuki.
They also inked Yimi Garcia to improve the pen.

The Tapia deal was part of a secondary goal of  filling the bench with left bats.
I am not ready to say that this has not worked out.

The Jays have faced some pretty tough pitching so far.

hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#413184) #
Glad to see the last of the Astros for the season, but probably not as glad as the Astros are to the last of the Jays.

Hey 50% success rate today with RISP!
grjas - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#413185) #
Romano is the most valuable guy on the Jays right now regardless of his WAR. Hope they don’t burn him out.

This run of good teams means our batters are facing a tonne of good pitching which doesn’t help those in a slump. And we have no shortage of slumpers
Gerry - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#413187) #
The Jays have optioned Bowden Francis and Gosuke Katoh. Vinny Capra survives. With Espinal now playing every day Katoh wasn't getting any playing time.
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#413189) #
Gausman is good.

According to MLB Stats on Twitter, Gausman is the first pitcher since Cy Young in 1906 to not walk a batter or allow a home run in five straight starts to begin a season (minimum 20 innings pitched).
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#413190) #
Prior to today, bWAR had Gausman as the 6th best Blue Jay thus far. fWAR had Gausman as the best pitcher in baseball.
Magpie - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#413191) #
At first glance, Capra looks like a RH version of Katoh, except two years younger. He's mostly an infielder as well. No one seems to regard him as any kind of prospect - he's 25 years old and until last year in New Hampshire he'd never done much with the bat. But he did have a nice year in AA a year ago and had picked up right where he left off in Buffalo. If nothing else, he'll balance the bench a little better.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#413192) #
Romano is the most valuable guy on the Jays right now regardless of his WAR. George Springer would like a word
92-93 - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#413193) #
With the lefties Tapia and Zimmer at the bottom of the roster the right-handed Capra is a much better fit than Katoh, so good move there. Capra has spent most of his time in the infield in New Hampshire and Buffalo.

The two WARs think Espinal, Springer, Manoah and Gausman have been the team's best players, which sounds about right. Springer gets dinged for negative defense, but he's been fine.

John Northey - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#413194) #
Quite the feat for the Jays, not losing a series yet (not jinxing it as the TV guys have said it a few times in the past few series).

Checking a few great teams of the past -
1985 & 1987: won first series, lost 2nd.
1989: infamously started 12-24, naturally lost 2 of 3 to start
1991: won first 2 then lost in a walkoff in the 3rd
1992: won first 3 series, then tied, then won 2, split a 2 game, then swept by Milwaukee (yes, they used to be an AL team)
1993: never swept all year, even including playoffs.  Split first series, 2 wins, split, lost 2 of 3 to KC.
2015: won first 2, then lost 3 of 4 to Tampa.
2016: split vs Tampa to start, lost 2 of 3 to Boston.
2020: lost 2 of 3 to Tampa to start - a sign of how the year would end
2021: won vs NYY, then lost 2 of 3 to Texas

Best streak I found with a quick check was 8 in a row in 1989 - needed to get back into it, but it came late - August 14 to Sept 10th - 8 straight series where they won or tied it.  Moving from 2 1/2 back to 2 1/2 ahead.  Then swept, followed by a sweep.  Entered the final weekend up by 1 game over Baltimore with 3 at home vs Baltimore (gulp!)  - won via walk off, then a 4-3 win to clinch.  lost the season final 7-5 in a game that was meaningless but almost won it (used a minor league rule 5 pick to close it, he blew it - Goose Gozzo).

This year is now up to 7 with a hard challenge in the Yankees who are blazing hot (9 straight wins).  Montgomery vs Stripling, Taillon vs Manoah, and Nestor Cortes vs Kikuchi.  I like the Jays odds in the middle, but tomorrow Montgomery has a 136 ERA+ but only 5 IP per game, Taillon under 5 IP per game 113 ERA+, Cortes has been lights out so far, 280 ERA+ but just 20 2/3 IP over 4 starts, 91 pitches his max this year, 6 1/3 IP.  A series win here would put the Jays within 1/2 a game of the Yankees, a sweep puts them in 1st by 1 1/2, lose 2 of 3 and down 2 1/2, lose all 3 and down 4 1/2.  As big a series as possible in early May imo.  Very glad to have Manoah in the middle.  Great time for Bo to finally start getting hot (2 hits yesterday, and the home run today).  A strong May for Bo would be just what the doctor ordered.
scottt - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#413196) #
Yankees have played Cleveland and Baltimore.
The only .500 teams the Yankees have faced are the Jays as Red Sox are under .500.

scottt - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#413197) #
Yeah, FIP based WAR for 30+K, 0BB, 0HR.
Manoah has only allowed 4 runs earned or not . Is that more valuable? Probably.

Offense is down, so lots of pitchers with high WAR and  not that many high OPS hitters.

dalimon5 - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#413198) #
“dalimon5, every year you work yourself up into a very public lather, usually when confronted with rational arguments that counter your “common sense” positions (or a reference to Keith Law). We’re all familiar with it. It’s an obvious ploy to distract from a weak position and it’s simply not persuasive at all.”

We can continue to disagree and put forth our arguments so long as we maintain the fair dialogue. I am listening to your position and disagree, but value your posts in any case.
grjas - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#413199) #
Personally I think the most valuable player is the one they can least afford to lose. And while Gausman, Manoah and Springer of all been outstanding, with the plethora of one run games, I think it’s Romano. Not only is he shut down, but with his loss everyone behind him would have to move up 1, and the solid pitcher ranks start to thin quickly.
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#413201) #
Besides not losing a series yet, the Jays haven't lost 2 in a row yet either. The best prior to start a season was 2009, when Cito's Jays avoided a losing streak until games 23 and 24.

Since they just won game 23, this years team will have the new record no matter what happens.
DavidtheDeuce - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#413202) #
Cito Gaston should have won the AL Manager of the Year Award in 1989 after turning the team around after their disastrous start to win the division over the Baltimore Orioles.

Incidentally, Baltimore's manager Frank Robinson took the award that year.
hypobole - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#413203) #
And then there's the Cincinnati Reds, who lost to the Rockies today. Not only is the Reds' 3-19 record the worst start in franchise history, it's also tied for the second-worst record through 22 games since 1900. Only the Baltimore Orioles 1-21 start in 1988 has been worse.

Found an article on Team President (also the owner's son, so you know that's going to work well) Phil Castellini's tone deaf interview around opening day. Had a picture of the guy.

Lots of team execs nowadays look like Wall Street-ers. Not Phil, who looks like he could have been part of John Gotti's crew back in the day. Which seems to dovetail with his "Nice franchise you have here. Sure would be a shame if anything happened to it" remarks.,runs%20business%20and%20ballpark%20operations.
John Northey - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#413204) #
FYI: Umpire Scorecards for Friday & Saturday, today's won't be up for awhile. A few more went the Jays way this time than normal it seems. But still I find sub 90% called strike accuracy unacceptable. RoboUmps now!

JohnL - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#413205) #
Cito vs Frank Manager of the Year:

Also relevant: Robinson managed the Orioles from a 107-loss season year before. (Also managed by Robinson.)

Of course, the 89 Orioles also had Jose Bautista pitching for them. Sadly, not our Jose...
hypobole - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#413206) #
"RoboUmps now!"

Any word on how it's coming along in AAA?
scottt - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#413207) #
Barkdale just had a huge strike zone and 4 strikes called balls.

Lentz's strike zone looks like that bunny shaped chocolate you can buy for a couple of bucks.

1-2 count, runner on second, obvious ball is called a strike to Guerrero. That's a huge one there.

I don't see the number 2 as being that impactful. 4th ball that grazed the strike zone is called a ball.
That's borderline. Most umps will call that a ball. That's a very bad pitch at a 3-0 count. Chapman probably takes unless it's straight down the middle. They have a very weird "impact" algorithm.

scottt - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#413208) #
At first glance, Capra looks like a RH version of Katoh

Maybe if I close my eyes. Capra is listed at 5'8", same height as Kirk but more like Bichette's physique.
Katoh is listed at 6'1", he's the tallest guy in the infield after Guerrero.
scottt - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#413209) #
Espinal has been better defensively than even Chapman. That's something.
Springer has been good on both sides. They're not pitching to Guerrero.

grjas - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#413210) #
They're not pitching to Guerrero.

Yup. This will be a different lineup when Hernandez returns, provided he is fully recovered.
John Northey - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#413211) #
Wow, yesterday's game was one of the really well done ones, but mistakes were mostly to the Jays favour.
hypobole - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#413213) #
Looking at a couple of guys with weird bad starts.

Kirk's big issue so far seems simple - really poor contact. 87.2 EV down 5 mph from last year. Barrel 2% from 11%. Hard Hit 34% from 47%. The slowest guy on team is the leader with 5 infield hits helped by weak dribblers, but also has 25% infield flies.

Tapia's big issue is plate discipline, because when he's made contact, it's been pretty good. Yesterday's DP, smoking a ball right at the 1st baseman was a bit of a microcosm of his luck this year.

This the 7th year he's spent time in the majors. His 88.3 EV is his best ever. Same with his 8.1% Barrel (2.0 and 2.1% the past 2 seasons). Same with his 38.7% Hard Hit. Statcast each of the past 6 seasons has a lower, often much lower, xwOBA than his actual wOBA. This season his .336 xwOBA is by far the highest of his career, but his actual .259 is by far the lowest the past 6 seasons. He's been Joey Votto with 0 infield flies. And despite his speed, he only has 1 infield hit.
dalimon5 - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#413214) #
Any interest in Willie Calhoun? What would it take to land him?
scottt - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#413215) #
Probably too much, he's under control for another year.

He's a linedrive hitter that they tried to tweak with an uppercut swing.
Is he an upgrade over Tapia?

Mets release Cano. Who will take a shot? Texas?

Nigel - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#413216) #
I can't see the Jays having any interest in Calhoun. His bat might be a marginal upgrade on Tapia and Zimmer but he gives that back and more with terrible defence and base running. That would be a hard no for me. Collins appears to be filling the "LHH DH/faking a position on defence" role on the team for now.
DavidtheDeuce - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#413217) #
When Springer is on the field the Blue Jays are a very different team. That play yesterday was so clutch.

Off topic: Any chance the BB Banner can include a pic of George dancing?
ISLAND BOY - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#413218) #
" And despite his speed, he has only one infield hit."

I think Tapia is like Lourdes Gurriel in that they both aren't as fast as they look like they should be.( Long legs, lean physique) They both seem to cover ground adequately in the outfield but I wonder if they don't have that explosive take-off that real burners on the basepaths seem to take advantage of.
scottt - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#413220) #
Also, no point of disrupting the team chemistry for marginal upgrades.

Jonny German - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#413221) #
Per the Baseball Savant data, it looks like we haven’s seen the best of Tapia’s running game (yet?). Last year his sprint speed was 81st percentile, this year it’s at 63 so far. Gurriel was at 41 last year, 56 this year.
John Northey - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#413222) #
Also, infield hits aren't always speed based - see Kirk with a few this year, can't find a site that lists them though.'d figure someone would. Maybe I'm just blind.
Mike Green - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#413223) #
Kirk has 5 infield hits this year (see under "More Batted Ball").
hypobole - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#413224) #
It's also on the team page where I found out Kirk is the team IFH leader in my post this morning. Also still waiting for someone to call me out for comparing Tapia to Joey Votto.,d
lexomatic - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#413225) #
Some love for Collins:

"Maybe we should be more willing to believe that Zack Collins can figure it out at the big league level given his propensity for taking bad pitches."
John Northey - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#413226) #
Cool thing. Knew it had to be somewhere. Kirk with 5, then Vlad with 4 tied with Springer and Gurriel for 2nd. Yeah, speed really isn't the deciding factor.

All time Jays Infield Hit leader... (2002-2022 wouldn't let me go further - don't appear to have those stats pre-2002)
Vernon Wells with 159, then Jose Bautista 84 and Aaron Hill 82

So a long ways to go for Kirk to take that one over :)
hypobole - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#413228) #
So I went to the swing decisions list. Combines last year and this year. 423 players listed (numbered to 424, but 1 is the header). Jays best to worst:

11 Collins
15 Biggio
24 Jansen
64 Chapman
112 Springer
115 Vlad
136 Kirk
164 Zimmer
183 Teoscar
211 Espinal
335 Gurriel
395 Tapia
401 Bichette

Nigel - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#413229) #
The name on that list that surprises me is Chapman. I suppose that tells you that there are plenty of holes in his swing within the strike zone.
GabrielSyme - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#413231) #
That swing decisions piece was fascinating. Ben Clemens measures it by wOBA added or lost due to swing decisions relative to the average.

For the Jays players it's mostly what you'd expect, with Biggio pretty high (+.018) and Lourdes (-.021) and Bo (-.034) ranking really low. Old friends Kevin Pillar (-.036) and Randal Grichuk (-.018) are about where you'd expect.

In addition to Collins being a surprise on the high side (+.021) I was surprised to see Danny Jansen rank very highly (+.017). Vladdy is in positive territory, but not as far up as you might suppose (+.004).

One other point: the rankings reinforce more strongly than I expected long-held stereotypes of regional approaches. The top of the list, with few exceptions (Juan Soto), is largely North American, with a few Asian hitters sprinkled in; the bottom of the list is dominated by Latin American players. "You can't walk off the island" appears to be a pretty common view.
hypobole - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#413234) #
Yeah Chapman was a bit surprising, but Zimmer has got to be the worst "holes in his swing guy" on the team.
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