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Why, there are Angels in our midst.


The Angels are pretty much assured of their seventh consecutive losing season - that's every season since they reverted to the "Los Angeles Angels" moniker of their first awkward years back in the early 1960s. This is what they get for denying who they are. They don't play in Los Angeles. They play in Anaheim. They posted fifteen winning seasons and made seven trips to the post-season in the nineteen years that Anaheim was part of the team name. They won a World Championship as the Anaheim Angels. What was the problem? Not showbiz enough for Arte Moreno? I would say the verdict is in on Mr Moreno's aptitude for running a baseball franchise. He is now contemplating selling, and let's hope he gets it done while Mike Trout is still young enough to play some October baseball.

He's back, by the way, off the Injured List and doing Mike Trout type things. Ross Stripling must be thrilled. Shohei Ohtani has put together a season quite similar to his stunning MVP campaign of a year ago. The baseball world simply isn't quite as stunned upon seeing the thing done again, and will give this year's MVP to the big Yankee. Taylor Ward has come back to earth after his absurd start and Jared Walsh is now out for the year. Anthony Rendon missed 104 games last year; he is going to miss 117 games this year. There's four years and $154 million remaining on that deal. I'm sure he'll be healthier in his mid 30s.

I'm doing a bit of research on BaseRunner Kills and the greatest outfield arms the game has ever seen (with the usual sidebar on where the Blue Jays fit in amongst it all.) I have gathered all the Blue Jays data I require, and that of the great throwing arms that occurred to me, but I thought I'd throw the floor open to suggestions, see if there's anyone interesting I didn't think of. So are there any other outfielders you might be curious about? Famous arms you have marvelled at over the years. With a particular emphasis on the last 50 years, but as I'm sure you are all well aware by now, I can go back much, much farther than that! And as it happens, I will have to. But on this subject, we are still disavowing any interest in anyone born before 1900 - no Cobb, Speaker, or Ruth. There's a reason for this, which I will surely get to with my usual brevity and concision.

Eephus is going to a rock show at the Budweiser Stage tonight - Spoon! Interpol! Metric! - and I'm sorely tempted to make a last minute change of plan and mosey on down my own self. I dunno. I'm probably too old for this, right? I should probably just stay home. Maybe listen to the album. Act my age.

Sigh.

Matchups...

Fri 26 Aug - Detmers (4-4, 3.66) vs White (1-3, 3.63)
Sat 27 Aug - Ohtani (10-8, 2.83) vs Manoah (12-6, 2.66)
Sun 28 Aug - Davidson (1-2, 6.00) vs Stripling (6-3, 2.84)
Los Angeles at Toronto, August 26-28 | 148 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#420687) #
Go to the show, Magpie! Just wear an N95 if you're OK with that for however many hours. You can even grab a beer or whatever else and enjoy it outside and at some reasonable distance between the acts.
92-93 - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#420690) #
The amphitheatre is a great venue on a nice summer evening. Any performance is worth seeing from the lawns.

When was the last time the Jays faced 2 lefty starters in the same series? It will be interesting to see what they do with the lineup. Will they let Kirk catch tonight and tomorrow, a day game after a night game? Manoah starts tomorrow so Kirk will be behind the dish, but if Kirk doesn't start tonight then he's out of the lineup for a 2nd straight day with Springer at DH. He could probably use the time off, but it would be great if Springer can play CF tonight so they can get Jansen and Kirk in the lineup both tonight and Sunday. Alas, it will likely be Merrifield in CF.
AWeb - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#420691) #
The Merrifield acquisition continues to baffle me - the Jays already had a better backup 2nd baseman (Biggio) who incidentally could play a corner OF and let one of the other guys cover CF (Springer, Tapia, Zimmer late in games, Hernandez in a real pinch). Merrifield is just so...meh. Someone who I will look back on in 10 years and not remember...although my roster recall is mostly non-existent now.

I just looked at the 2018 starters...a couple I wouldn't have named in a 100 tries (Solarte at 3b?, Diaz at SS? I must've tuned out that year), and a bunch more I wouldn't have guessed were on the team only 4 seasons ago:    Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales, Marco Estrada, Curtis Granderson (!!). Only a couple of people still around, which is probably why my brain has shifted that part of the roster into the deep past, while still contradictorily insisting the WS wins were just a few years ago.
Glevin - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#420692) #
Huge chance to gain some ground on Orioles coming up. Jays have an easy stretch of games and Orioles are in Houston. The next 16 games for the Jays are against LA, CHC, Put, Baltimore, and Texas. It would be nice to put a good streak together so the team can be under less pressure in the last stretch and rest some players.

Not sure what Jays are going to do about Ken tonight. They need some innings. Theoretically Kikuchi is a great fit because he can go after White and throw 3-4 innings but he is such a mess right now, I don't know how you can do that. Merryweather and Pop are one inning guys which I don't think is enough. Kay? Hatch?
Ducey - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#420693) #
Adding Merrifield doesnt seem that baffling.

He and JBJ are better than Zimmer and Collins.

People continue to argue that having Zimmer is better because he is worse. Somehow if you have a guy with limited ability that is better because his average replacement gets played too much.

This of course is illogical and ignores the fact that players need rest, some get hurt, that some players match up better than others, and that players get hot. The chances of former all star Merrifield going on a burner and carrying the team are higher than that of Zimmer who looked like he would not be able to hit the ball with a tennis racket.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#420696) #
People continue to argue that having Zimmer is better because he is worse.

I actually think Zimmer is better than Bradley, but he was never going to show that here so that doesn't even matter. No one believed in him here and you can't really blame them. But I will not be surprised if he plays better for the Phillies than Bradley does here. The fear is that because Bradley used to be good, he'll receive much more playing time than his current abilities warrant, and that's certainly much more than Zimmer would have gotten.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#420697) #
Go to the show, Magpie!

It's not going to happen. I'm all shagged out and exhausted from grocery shopping and probably ought to lie down for a while. Four acts? There's no way I'll last through four acts (apparently Bartees Strange is on the bill as well.)
Nigel - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#420700) #
The argument against Merrifield isn’t that different to me. He was largely (not completely) redundant to the roster. It’s been quite a while since he was good and his veteraness is giving him ABs ahead of better players (Biggio). Plus, he isn’t on a league minimum deal. Now, he’s not totally redundant because I think he’s the team’s 4th best OF (in most circumstances) and if he’s keeping Tapia and JBJ on the bench that’s usually a win. I still think it was an unnecessary and odd use of resources at the deadline but it also isn’t a huge deal either way.
Nigel - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#420701) #
4th or 5th best OF
bpoz - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#420702) #
Seattle is signing J Rodriguez to a big contract.
Kasi - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#420703) #
Very odd one with lots of caveats. It’s basically an 8x15 contract with multiple extension options. Team can choose to extend for 8 or 10 years for massive yearly money or they can bail. If they bail player can add 5x18 or go to FA. I’d be happy with this kind of structure for someone like Vlad.
hypobole - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#420705) #
Zimmer had his 2nd multi-hit game of the season last night against Cinci. The only other was with the Jays back in May against Cinci.

He's a positive, by bWAR, with the Phillies because he's has 3 Defensive Runs Saved there in 47 innings after only 2 DRS with the Jays in 272 innings. Guess it helps playing CF with slugs on either side to really take advantage of his range.
Kasi - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#420706) #
Loup and Tapera are both missing the series for “reasons”. Somewhat amused since they both played here for years.
lexomatic - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#420707) #
<br>wow that Rodriguez contract 210-470 million up to 18 years? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/mariners-extend-julio-rodriguez.html
Gerry - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#420709) #
Magpie:

Griffey Jr.; Winfield; Walker; Vlad Snr; Ellis Valentine.

I will be curious to see how you handle reputation. If a guy has a great arm runners might not test him. Meanwhile some guy with a noodle arm will be tested often and occasionally get a kill.
Dewey - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#420711) #
George (?) 'Shotgun' Shuba was said to have a great arm for the 1950's Ebbets Field Dodgers. And was it Carl Furillo or Gene Hermanski who also had that reputation? Best arm I've seen remains Jesse Barfield's.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#420712) #
I will be curious to see how you handle reputation.

Among the new bits of data on bb-ref are Hold and Advance numbers for various Runners on Base situations and there does seem to be some divergence in the amount of respect being shown. I think I'll only get deep into those woods with the Jays outfielders. For the rest, there's a historical narrative that needs telling!

As a rule, the people you've heard have good arms do indeed throw out more baserunners than the average outfielders. And all the guys who throw out lots of baserunners have reputations for having good arms. We will sometimes see the occasional weak arm look good - these guys are always fast, and they get to balls, and get to them quicker than baserunners expect. Omar Moreno was the classic example - he had years when he eliminated more baserunners than his teammates Dave Parker and Dave Winfield. But their impressive totals are generally a one or two year fluke, that doesn't last their career.

Hadn't thought of Griffey Jr! Adding him to the pile! Valentine's career was a little short, and probably doesn't qualify for a Top Ten List - I was originally only looking at players with 100 career Kills. But he did have a cannon, so let's toss him into the mix and take a look.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#420713) #
Carl Furillo. The Reading Rifle.

Did someone give Vladdy an extra espresso or Six?
Nigel - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#420714) #
Also interesting to see how you handle positions. For example, Griffey Jr. had an excellent arm for a CF but (in my opinion) isn’t in the same weight class as the best RF arms (Barfield, Mondesi (the early years), Parker, etc).
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#420715) #
apparently Bartees Strange is on the bill as well.

Wow.  That's a good fourth act on the bill.  I can't think of anything better than live music to train and pace for- up at 6:30 for long walks or jogs or runs, a nap at 3:30, whatever.  

That's a terrible challenge from the Blue Jays.
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#420716) #
Barfield has the best arm I ever saw, although I will concede that Clemente was close. 
Hodgie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#420717) #
Another first-inning TOOTBLAN - that is certainly a choice.
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#420718) #
Vladdy needs to take a large chill pill.
Chuck - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#420719) #
The camera pans to Guerrero after the two runs scored that would have scored anyway had Guerrero made the out at 1B.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#420720) #
Also interesting to see how you handle positions.

Well, I was thinking of comparing to the league average for that position for that era (because the number of BaseRunner Kills has changed considerably over the decades.) And right fielders always throw out more people than centre fielders. So I figured I would consider Griffey in context of the centre fielders of his day, Willie Mays with the centre fielders of his day.

Almost all of the outfielders anyone ever wants to look at on this subject are right fielders, of course. The guys who can throw play RF, the guys who can run play CF, the guys who can't do either play LF. But there are a few non-RFs worth looking at.
scottt - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#420721) #
This is starting to look like a Kikuchi night.

They didn't sleep enough apparently and it's affecting everyone include the videoroom guy.

Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#420722) #
This is bad.  I guess the club is wiped out from the bad trip in. 
greenfrog - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#420723) #
Mitch White deserved better.
AWeb - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#420724) #
'Hey, watch the first few innings tonight, should be fun!'...if a team was throwing a game, this is what it would look like. Wonder what white's pitch limit is ?
Nigel - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#420725) #
With some notable exceptions, this team on the whole hasn’t actually been playing good defense for some time now.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#420729) #
Barfield has the best arm I ever saw, although I will concede that Clemente was close.

You may recall - I certainly do, because I've just consulted it - a little list from the second edition of the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract from around 2003 or whenever. It listed the ten outfielders, born after 1900, who eliminated baserunners most frequently. James used BaseRunner Kills per 1,000 innings.

I'll be updating that list - there have been some changes in the raw data. And 1,000 innings is silly (it's about 111 games) so I'll express it as BaseRunner Kills per 1400 innings. Nine of the top ten remain (I think Bill just missed someone first time around.) The order has changed slightly. Jesse isn't number two, behind Chuck Klein, anymore. And I had prepared this thorough explanation of Chuck Klein's crazy numbers (when he set the single season record of 41 BKs, he had 31 of them at home in the Baker Bowl.) Oh well.
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#420730) #
Apparently Tapia is coming in to play right-field.  That's not good because he's a terrible defensive right-fielder; it should be JBJ or Tapia to center and Merrifield to right.  
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#420731) #
Good game for Kikuchi.
greenfrog - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#420732) #
I assume Teo is hurt? It seems early to be conceding the game.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#420733) #
I assume Teo is hurt?

Fouled another ball off the same foot, and then played Ohtani's trouble as if the whole concept of baseball simply baffled him for the moment.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#420734) #
Ohtani's triple. There was definitely trouble.
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#420735) #
Guerrero jogs down to first base on the ground ball after being caffeinated as a fielder and baserunner.  I can't imagine that Schneider is happy about all this. 
BlueJayWay - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#420736) #
Teo's been playing a baffling brand of baseball lately. Like he's in a purple haze.
greenfrog - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#420737) #
Does Schneider (and did Montoyo) even have authority over well-off stars like Vladdy and Bo to bench and discipline them? Or (more likely) does he have to say (effectively), pretty please, could you run harder down to first?
Mike Green - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#420738) #
Bill James said something about this issue in relation to Whitey Herzog.  It's part of a manager's job to discipline, and if the owner doesn't like what the manager is doing, then he gets fired.  And Whitey was quite prepared to get fired. 
greenfrog - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#420739) #
I agree. The question is whether Schneider is doing his job in that regard. Montoyo seems to have fallen into the trap of being the nice guy and defending his players’ lapses to a fault. It remains to be seen whether Schneider is going to chart a different course.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#420741) #
The question is whether Schneider is doing his job in that regard.

It's not really up to Schneider. The players - and this is true in all the big sports - allow themselves to be coached. (There are even some who actively want it.) And if they don't allow it, there's nothing anybody can do. The coach or manager with the authority to go to his boss and say "either I go or the star goes" is one of the planet's most endangered species. Gregg Popovich may be the last example to be found in the wild.
Kasi - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#420742) #
Belichick is the obvious example, but he’s also the GM of his team. NBA is really the only sport who has historically has powerful coaches and there are still a few there like Pop, Spoelstra and Kerr. NHL and MLB seem to be mostly run by people with little power on personal.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#420743) #
Yeah, I think it's understood that Spoelstra has Pat Riley's full and complete backing and there's no challenging Pat Riley.

Kerr, I think, had some of the same good fortune as Popovich - a superstar who wanted to be coached. Who didn't merely allow it, but actively wanted it.

Herzog was almost a throwback in his own time. Was he the last true "my way or the highway" baseball manager? It definitely got him fired in KC, and within two years that clubhouse was filled with cocaine. Which sure didn't happen in St Louis.
Nigel - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#420744) #
Nick Nurse probably isn’t in that position yet but I’m not sure that many players would win in a power stand off with him.
John Northey - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#420745) #
Yknow, with a decent plate ump this actually might be close. He has made some calls that are many inches off the plate as strikes when the Jays had the bases loaded. Ugly.
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#420746) #
Mitch White thinking "you couldn't play defense like that for me?"
Magpie - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#420747) #
He has made some calls that are many inches off the plate as strikes

When it's 10-0 in the eighth inning, home plate gets w i d e. Always has, always will. Everyone just wants to get out alive, and as soon as possible.
Kasi - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#420748) #
Thanks to the Sox for holding on tonight. Doesn’t look like the Astros are doing us any favors though.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, August 26 2022 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#420750) #
That was the worst game I’ve ever seen Vladdy play.

Embarrassing all around
John Northey - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#420751) #
But it was also wide at 7-0 with the bases loaded - a hit there and the game changes dramatically. Just poor umpiring imo.
Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#420753) #
In theory, yes. But last night, the home side looked like a bunch of guys who got off an airplane at 4 in the morning, unpacked, had a nap, went to the ball park, and sleep walked through the rest of the day. As a disgruntled customer once complained "they wouldn't go VOOM! if you put five million volts through 'em."
Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#420754) #
But enough about the Blue Jays. Let's talk about me!

Or my work on BaseRunner Kills, to be precise. Right now I have a list of some 52 outfielders whose numbers I will be Crunching, and naturally most of them were right fielders. I'm keen on receiving suggestions, especially for non-right fielders. I do have a few for now. The LF guys are Yastrzemski, Johnson, Goslin, Soriano, Rice, Gordon, Minoso, Stargell, Raines, Bonds, Williams; the CFs are the DiMaggios(s), Ashburn, Puckett, Pinson, Mays, Griffey, Mantle; as well as a few players who divided their time pretty evenly (Winfield, Dawson, Higginson, Simmons.) I can and I will be making adjustments for both outfield position and era. Anyone born in the 20th century is eligible! Submit your suggestions here! The provisional bar is 100 career BaseRunner Kills, but I'm happy to take a look at someone with less (Mark Whiten, Ellis Valentine.)
Mike Green - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#420755) #
I have good news and bad news. The good news is that George Springer is the starting centerfielder today. The bad news is that he will be flanked by Tapia and JBJ.

At least Tapia is in LF.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#420756) #
Big arms in the outfield?

Bo Jackson.

Yoenis Céspedes, Nick Markakis?
Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#420757) #
Cespedes and Bo both had such short careers, but more LFs are welcome!

Markakis is good. His numbers don't look that great at first glance, but I suspect after adjusting for era he'll look much better.
Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#420758) #
I suspect after adjusting for era [Markakis]'ll look much better.

Update: he doesn't. But Cespedes is a real winner. Big time.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#420759) #
Ellis Valentine, I haven't heard that name in a long time. He was built like the proverbial brick outhouse but never seemed to reach his potential.

A couple of names to the Big Arms club, both right fielders, Ichiro Suzuki (123 assists) and Dwight Evans (157 assists).
Bid - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#420760) #
Anticipating the ceremonies at Rogers Centre today...

Read Rosie DiManno's entertaining piece on game six of the '92 series in the Star today. We had been with our boys at game three on the 200 level in fair territory near the Hard Rock Cafe where our view of Devo's catch was obscured by the wall from our angle of view, although we could see Gruber's tag completing the triple play even if the ump did not. A few days later when the Jays took it all in Atlanta I jumped up like Joe Carter and run to the boys' room at the sound of breaking glass. Victory's tumult had smashed a window.
Chuck - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#420761) #
never seemed to reach his potential

A pitch to the face and drug and alcohol addictions conspired to cut short his career. I remember seeing him in a depanneur on Montreal's West Island and had him sign my bagged six-pack (of Brador or Laurentide or some such). He was a big smiley, friendly guy. Dotted the i in his first name with a valentine, what else.

Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#420762) #
I notice that most of the guys who weren't back for 1993 weren't there today either - Jimmy Key, Manuel Lee, Derek Bell, Kelly Gruber, David Wells. But Winfield and Maldonado turned up and we heard from Cone and Henke.

John Sullivan's 81 now and looking a little frail. Cito is 78 and looking better than me.
Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#420763) #
Stieb played mostly in the outfield in his first pro year at Dunedin in 1978. He hit .178/.257/.253, and that was the end of that.
mathesond - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#420764) #
That's what you get for trying to run on JBJ!
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#420765) #
Beautiful ceremony. The NFL and NCAA must have those same cameras in the end zone, after a touchdown. Super high-resolution. Watching the legends in 4K.

Was about to comment on the high sun affecting the right fielder.

The longer Manoah stays in, the better for the bullpen.
lexomatic - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#420766) #
<br>having a hard time understanding why you wouldn't pkay Gurriel and Merrifield in the OF today. This lineup is such a disadvantage starting off against a tough pitcher when you're in a tough fight for a playoff spot and you got brutally embarrassed at home. I don't see the defensive advantage to justify that. This team really tries to find ways to lose.
DavidtheDeuce - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#420767) #
https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1563633827616096256

Really enjoyed the ceremony. By my count there are seven Hall of Famers in this photo - can you name them off the top of your head?

Time to give Alek some run support.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#420768) #
Clutch scorn. Tapia has looked against Ohtani.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#420769) #
*terrible.
Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#420770) #
why you wouldn't pkay Gurriel and Merrifield in the OF today.

Because Ohtani is so much tougher on RH batters, probably. Not that he's a walk in the park for anyone.
lexomatic - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#420771) #
*team scorn* this team doesn't know how to win and it should be broken up. 16 innings shut out vs the Angels? This team should be embarrassed.
lexomatic - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#420772) #
<br>Because Ohtani is so much tougher on RH batters, probably. Not that he's a walk in the park for anyone.


Ugh I didn't think it was THAT bad.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#420773) #
Pop/Bass/White were good pickups, but the team is badly hurting for a good LHH bat. This team is unlikely to do much in the postseason (if they get there) with a cluster of Tapia / JBJ / Merrifield in the lineup.
Kasi - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#420774) #
There really hasn’t been any good LH hitters the last couple years in FA. Brantley was the big one we almost got but now he’s injured and out for a year.
No idea who was available in trade. Happ I think was the wanted target but he didn’t even get traded to anyone.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#420775) #
I don't know why Gurriel Jr. was out of the lineup. Perhaps a scheduled day off or perhaps Schneider actually believed that Tapia was a better choice against Ohtani. Not a fan of the move with Hernandez out of the lineup. One at a time.
Magpie - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#420777) #
Injury Report!

Aroldis Chapman is going on the IL with a leg infection. Boone says it was from getting a tattoo.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 27 2022 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#420778) #
Pesky Baltimore is up 3-0 on Houston in the seventh inning. It’s going to be an interesting last month or so of the season, I think.
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#420779) #
Well folks, I've been entering data and crunching numbers about BaseRunner Kills and a couple of issues have come up. Gerry saw the first one of these coming from a mile off, and I may have been a little over-confident in thinking I could address it!

I will be curious to see how you handle reputation. If a guy has a great arm runners might not test him.

Yup. It's a problem, all right. The two players who caught me up short were Al Kaline and Willie Mays. Kaline, especially. He threw out 84 runners in his first five seasons, which only takes us up to his age 23 season. He threw out just 86 over the remaining 15 years of his career. Obviously, the opposition simply stopped running on balls hit to him. The same effect occurs - it's not nearly as drastic - with Mays, Aaron, even Clemente. I suspect it's not as drastic because those three were faster than Kaline (who was pretty fast himself, make no mistake.) Still, for a large chunk of their careers, Kaline and Mays - two of the best outfield arms of their day -were throwing out fewer baserunners than the average outfielder of his time. And because they were such great players, they lasted into their 40s, with the opposition too frightened to run on them for the final dozen years or so. Whereas Jesse Barfield and Jeff Francoeur were both done at 32 - there's no lengthy frightened baserunner phase to their careers. I know this problem is going to come up again - the long careers of Andre Dawson and Dave Winfield, the short careers of Kirby Puckett and Glenn Wilson. I must find a way to cope! Do I have to - gulp - go back into the weeds, and select five seasons of Peak Value? Should I get a life instead?

The other issue is real enough, but I ought to be able to deal with it It concerns the different eras. I think 20 BaseRunner Kills when the average outfielder gets 11 is more impressive than getting 12 when the average outfielder gets 6. The second, though, is a more impressive percentage. I'm confident there's a mathematical solution if I just work at it. Although math is not really my thing...
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#420780) #
Current defensive metrics address "baserunner kills" vs.  "opportunities" by taking into account how many runners attempt to advance.  Another factor is the home park.  For instance, left-fielders in Fenway have additional opportunities for baserunner kills at second base.  This was also true to a lesser extent of rightfielders in Tiger Stadium. 
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#420782) #
Posted this in the wrong thread.

I haven't seen Spencer Horwitz play the outfield, but if he's competent in left field, he would be an upgrade on Tapia.  The bar is low.  I believe Tsutsugo may have slightly more range than a brick in the outfield and he too might have more value than Tapia. 

It should be noted that at this point, Zimmer is at 0.2 bWAR for the year and Tapia is at -0.5 bWAR.  Zimmer is on pace to be about 1 win better per year, despite an uncharacteristic .189 BABIP. 

It's Sunday, so even though this is not my day of rest, it's respectful to temper my scorn with a constructive suggestion.  Nonetheless, I have (I think) met my SQ, scorn quota, and the day is young. 
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#420783) #
Current defensive metrics address "baserunner kills" vs. "opportunities" by taking into account how many runners attempt to advance.

Yep, and bb-ref provides all that data, beginning in 2003. Which isn't going to help me with Al Kaline, alas! And while it's nice to have that additional data for the last 20 years, I've grown far more interested in the subject from a historical perspective, rather than a narrow Blue Jays perspective. BaseRunner Kills haven't yet - and I'm sure they won't - quite gone the way of Complete Games. But it's long been trending in the same direction.

There's a bit of a philosophical question, too, I suppose. We like to talk sometimes about the best outfield arm - I think that's rather like talking about the prettiest swing. What matters is getting hits, what matters is stopping or removing baserunners. The strongest arms almost always end up in right field, because there are more long throws there. But right fielders don't always get the most BKs, both individually, which I think we always knew - but even in the game as a whole, which was a surprise to me at least.
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#420786) #
For instance, left-fielders in Fenway have additional opportunities for baserunner kills at second base.

And far fewer opportunities to make plays on the baseball, as routine flyouts carom off the Wall for extra bases. It's something I don't think anyone has figured out how to address. Both bb-ref and FanGraphs give Jim Rice a big defensive penalty when it comes to his overall value, and regard Carl Yastrzemski as having no defensive impact at all, positive or negative.

Well, you can fool the kids with your fancy numbers, but I saw those guys play! Jim Rice was not Yastrzemski - who was as good as Kaline, playing left field - but Rice was a good outfielder, and definitely not a drag on his team.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#420787) #
I do think that it's helpful to look at road defensive statistics, particularly for outfielders.

It's obviously the end of the story. I mean, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. might play 10 games in Fenway in a year and it's strange to take account of those for him but not for the Red Sox leftfielder.
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#420788) #
bb-ref provides all that data, beginning in 2003.

This is amazing. Just two weeks ago, when I harvested all this data for Blue Jays outfielders, that data began in 2003. Now it goes all the way back to 1915. Holy moley!

Still don't seem to have defensive innings by outfield position before 1948. Maybe I should just wait a couple of weeks!
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#420789) #
I do think that it's helpful to look at road defensive statistics, particularly for outfielders.

It would sure be nice to have those splits for some players. You have to go through the Game Logs to learn that when Jim Rice had 20 BaseRunner Kills in 1983, that was 13 in Fenway and 7 on the road. The Wall would have created many additional opportunities, and a player who played half his games in front of it would likely have a unique ability to take advantage.
Chuck - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#420790) #
what matters is stopping or removing baserunners

Measuring the run-value (perhaps using the run expectation matrix based on the 24x3 base/out combinations) of the removing should easily be doable. The stopping gets a little more complicated and might work along the lines of the following. Say 40% of baserunners at 1B go to 3B on singles to RF. When Clemente was in RF, what was the percentage? How many runners did he keep from advancing and what was the associated run-value of keeping them planted? You might not have all the data to perform this kind of analysis.

Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#420791) #
Current defensive metrics address "baserunner kills" vs. "opportunities" by taking into account how many runners attempt to advance.

Two weeks ago - two weeks! - I wasn't getting this information for Jesse Barfield in the 1980s. Now I've got it for Bob Meusel in the 1920s. I even have the back end of Tris Speaker's career (there are also some of the same numbers for 1915-19, but they look partial to me.) I now have to rethink this whole project!

There's going to be a lot of copying and pasting in my future. It's great to know how many runners advanced and how many didn't when Kaline or Clemente was in right field - but I think you absolutely have to know the same thing about the rest of the right fielders to know what it means. Journey of thousand miles begins with single step. League totals.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#420792) #
After a poor start to the season, Tapia actually played fairly decent for a couple of months but right now I can't remember the last time I saw him get a hit. I really didn't like the idea of Gurriel being out of the line up yesterday when Hernandez couldn't play. The time for resting is over - it's either win or go home from now on.
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#420793) #
I think yesterday was all about getting every LH batter with a pulse into the lineup, because RH batters can't even manage the Mendoza Line against Ohtani. And with the Angels starting LH on Friday and Sunday, it was probably going to be the only chance they'd get to play all weekend. Problem is, Biggio and Tapia have cooled off a whole lot lately, and Bradley cooled off a few years ago. And Shohei Ohtani is not the guy to make their lives easier.
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#420794) #
Tapia actually played fairly decent for a couple of months

Better than "fairly decent," actually. (Ducks.) Look, in June and July the guy hit .323 and slugged .528 - that's pretty good. OK, he was bad in April and May. And he's been awful in August. But for one brief, shining moment... the scorn was really working.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#420796) #
Seems like the Jays’ season could come down to whether Baltimore can win 6+ (maybe 5+) of its remaining games against them. If Baltimore goes 6-4 or better against the Jays, things could get sticky in Toronto. Remember that Baltimore will have Henderson in September (the Jays will have Moreno, so those moves could somewhat cancel each other out).
chris_jays - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#420797) #
August splits by wRC+

Biggio: 86
Chapman: 83
Merrifield: 75
LGJ: 67
Jansen: 57
JBJ: 44
Tapia: -2
lexomatic - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#420798) #
Being a monster for 1/3 of a season is fine if you're playable the other 2/3....
Re Tapia
Glevin - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#420799) #
This Jays lineup is one of the most easiest in baseball to pitch to. Just don't throw strikes and they'll swing at almost everything. Just really bad approaches almost all the way through the lineup.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#420800) #
The Angels have got 2 homers from Velasquez, and 1 each from Rengifo and Suzuki.  I guess there's a karmic price to be paid for not playing Espinal with a right-hander on the mound. 
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#420801) #
*a left-hander on the mound.
lexomatic - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#420802) #
Well. this feels like the end.
Just destroyed by the Angels this weekend.
Glevin - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#420803) #
Jays have 9 hits in 22 innings against the Angels. Just embarrassing.
lexomatic - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#420804) #
This Jays lineup is one of the most easiest in baseball to pitch to. Just don't throw strikes and they'll swing at almost everything. Just really bad approaches almost all the way through the lineup.

I'm actually close to writing off this iteration of Jays. It's a bad combo. I don't have faith in them finding a way to win.
Eephus - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#420805) #
They all seem to slump or get hot at the same time, don’t they? What a weird unpredictable team this has been.
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#420806) #
Gosh. Everybody was thinking about playoff matchups... when? Two days ago?

That was premature. So is whatever this is.
Eephus - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#420807) #
They appear to take the old adage of “you’re never as bad you look when you’re losing and never as good as you look when you’re winning” to a particularly unique extreme. Maybe it’s a new market inefficiency?

They are going to have to gain some greater level of consistency eventually, though. It’s a tight race and those other teams don’t look like they’re messing around. Missing the playoffs because of the freaking Orioles (who are beating up on the Astros? Like I said, weirdness)…. heads will surely roll.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#420808) #
Guerrero got precisely one pitch remotely close to the strike zone there.  Blech. 
Eephus - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#420809) #
Get Strip off the hook at least. Please.

Sincerely, Eephus.
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#420810) #
i've been off the grid for the past week....

...why is Gurriel hitting at the top of the order with a fully healthy lineup?
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#420811) #
and why is stripling getting the hook on 75 pitches and the bottom of the order coming up?
Glevin - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#420812) #
How does Hernandez not run hard and get to 2B there? He couldn't score from first with a two out double earlier.
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#420813) #
since the trade deadline:

* 1. Springer 45pa 231wrc+
* 2. Guerrero 105pa 132wrc+
* 3. Bichette 91pa 105wrc+
* 4. Teoscar 86pa 103wrc+
* 5. Kirk 85pa 100wrc+
* 6. Espinal 56pa 99wrc+
* 7. Biggio 37pa 86wrc+
* 8. Chapman 93pa 83wrc+
* 9. Merrifield 53pa 75wrc+

* 10. Gurriel 91pa 67wrc+
* 11. Jansen 44pa 57wrc+
* 12. Bradley 25pa 44wrc+
* 13. Tapia 51pa, -2wrc+


why is Gurriel in the 3 hole?
Kasi - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#420814) #
Well he did smash a ball of his foot twice recently. You’d have to think he’s a bit hobbled atm.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#420815) #
“ Baltimore will have Henderson in September (the Jays will have Moreno, so those moves could somewhat cancel each other out).

Not really. Moreno is blocked by Jansen and Kirk while Gunnar can improve SS for Baltimore immediately.

Eephus - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#420816) #
Sigh.
lexomatic - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#420817) #
<br>miss a chance to score with runners on base and the Angels come and score some insurance right after.

Earlier in the season the Jays got so many blown calls that it looked like they just hacked for a while, but I'd be curious if that's still happening, if it's happening in times that ate a topping rallies (Jays seem really bad at stringing hits together).
My guy is telling me the early season messed with their heads,including the injuries,and for whatever reason they don't have the ability to just get hacking at whatever.. and they sabotage themselves.
If anyone has access to that info or knows where it's publicly available I'd love to know if anything backs that up.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#420818) #
I figure Moreno will give the Jays some good PAs, speed, badly needed rest for Kirk (ancillary benefit), and some more mix-and-match options via pinch-hitters and pinch-runners. And he’s already had a cup of coffee, so he might perform a bit better this time around.

Henderson is a very good prospect but he’s hasn’t played in the majors yet.

I said “somewhat” cancel each other out because although they should both help their teams, one of them might contribute more net value.
lexomatic - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#420819) #
<br>missed the HR while typing.
Like I said earlier, I don't have faith in this team finding a way to win.
I think k they need a big shake-up, not because of the loose vibe of the barrio-which I like, but because there's too many RH hackers who play sloppy.
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#420820) #
Sometimes i remember that we're 25-17 in one run games, 8gms over .500, which means we might not even really deserve the bubble-team level record we have now.
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#420821) #
closed door players meeting incoming....
Eephus - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#420822) #
This is brutal. Maybe I’ve been too kind to these guys.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#420823) #
You don't expect them to win every day, but regular focus and effort seems to be the minimum requirement. 
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#420824) #
Jekyll and Hyde
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#420825) #
Sometimes i remember that we're 25-17 in one run games, 8gms over .500, which means we might not even really deserve the bubble-team level record we have now.

Yes, but considering the last like 20 years or so of one run games I'm not complaining about this helping the Jays for once
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#420826) #
Who calls out Vladdy?
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#420827) #
still don't get why we yanked Stripling on 77 pitches with the bottom of the order coming up.

the relievers all failed and now we burned 4 of them.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#420828) #
It looked like Bichette was having a serious discussion with Guerrero Jr.  VGJ has had a pretty rotten series from start to finish. 
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#420829) #
make that 5 burned relievers.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#420830) #
Bringing in Kikuchi with the bases loaded is a touchy proposition- good thing they're down 6 runs.  I knew there was a reason for this. 
lexomatic - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#420831) #
closed door players meeting incoming....

If not then a bigger shake-up is needed.

This series has been abysmal in evey way.
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#420832) #
11-13 since the trade deadline.

* White: 18.1ip, 5.89era, 0.4fwar, -0.1ra8war
* Bass: 11.0ip, 1.64era, 0.0fwar, 0.4ra9war
* Pop: 6.2ip, 2.70era, 0.0fwar, 0.1ra9war
* Merrifield: 56pa, 65wrc+, 0.0war
* Bradley: 25pa, 44wrc+, -0.2war
John Northey - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#420833) #
Sometimes it seems they get up for certain series (any against Boston or NYY) and other times they are just flat and look uninterested (this weekend). Who knows what really goes on - I know from my daughters softball how a team can go from world beaters one game to dead the next - a previous tournament they made it to a 2 game final, nearly mercy ruled the other team in game one, then they were mercy ruled in game 2 - same 2 teams, same pitchers (high school aged girls softball you'll see one girl go multiple games often), same hitters, same day. Sports can be weird.

I love watching the Jays but know from watching them since the 70's that there will be good times and bad times in each season. Just enjoy the good and look for good in the bad. If you look for problems you'll find many. Right now I'd love to have Billy Martin as manager just to see him go nuts on Hernandez when he looks like he isn't putting an effort in - we all know he is trying, it just feels like he isn't sometimes (the triple the other day where he seemed to wave at the ball instead of getting it for example). Davy Johnson would probably bench Vlad for a few games when he has a ball go through his glove as a message to the whole team. Not sure what to expect from Schneider with this slump - today with 9 hits and 7 walks more than 3 runs should've scored. I definitely think he isn't a fan of Merryfield. Wondering if he might try a lineup shuffle but not sure what move I'd make there. More a try to figure out how to handle 2B (Espinal/Biggio semi-platoon seemed to be good but then the GM tossed Merryfield into the mix) and the OF (Hernandez needs a few days off to fully heal, but then you have to play one of Tapia/JBJ/Merryfield out there - maybe an ugly defensive platoon of Tapia/Merryfield and use JBJ in the Zimmer late inning role mainly).
Magpie - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#420834) #
The first two games didn't bother me - the first was a travel day casualty, the second was too much Ohtani. Today was just an out and out stinker. It's a long season. Fecal matter happens. Flush and forget.
scottt - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#420835) #
Obviously Bradley is not supposed to start regularly and not against a lefty.

Bass is great. Pop is fine. Merrifield will probably get it going at some point.

White is interesting. They told him to throw his slider inside to lefties and he did that.
It's a great pitch to get someone chasing but you can't throw that constantly if they are not swinging.
He has to pitch like he knows to. Walker seems to like his starters throwing only 2 pitches.
That's not always a recipe for success.

Meanwhile, Aroldis Chapman is on the IL with an infected tattoo on his left leg.
His replacement is Banda whom the Jays released recently and he's pitching the fifth with the Yanks down 4-1.

It seems like the Yankees unloaded Montgomery because they were after Pablo Lopez but balked when the Marlins asked for real prospects. They wanted Peraza and Torres for Lopez and shortstop Miguel Rojas.

ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#420836) #
I had to laugh when Dan Shulman commented after Springer's home run that there was no sign of the Barrio Jacket and Buck Martinez replied," Yeah, they should put that in the freezer for a while."

I find it interesting that both Martinez and Joe Siddall had the opinion that a team meeting was necessary because of the poor efforts. The thing I wonder is if they actually have a veteran position player that can get up and command the room. I recently read that when Dave Winfield arrived to the team in 1992, he told the extra players who had a habit of watching the games from the clubhouse to get out on the bench and support their teammates. I think they need a voice like his now.
uglyone - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#420837) #
that's what Whit Merrifield is for!
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 28 2022 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#420839) #
Well it sure as hell isn’t gonna be Bo or Vlad!
85bluejay - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#420841) #
The good news is that the young exciting Raptors open training camp in less than a month.
Magpie - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#420842) #
Well it sure as hell isn’t gonna be Bo or Vlad!

Well, DUH. They're much too young, they haven't won anything, and Bichette's far too quiet and withdrawn a personality type anyway. Springer is the only possible such guy on this team.

But the whole idea of "veteran leadership" in 1992 was greatly inflated anyway. Dave Winfield has always been a canny self-promoter, and he may be seen as a winner now - but in 1992 he was no such thing. He was a 40 year old vet who'd been to the World Series once, many years earlier, and quite famously stunk out the joint. Maldonado had been in a World Series - he went 1-11 and his team got swept. White had been a bench player on a team that lost the ALCS. Carter had never come close to the post-season. That team had exactly one veteran guy with unimpeachable winning credentials. But he was a pitcher and they don't count.
Chuck - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#420843) #
but in 1992 he [Winfield] was no such thing

Didn't Steinbrenner call him Mr. May (to contrast the Mr. October epithet worn by Reggie Jackson)?

Magpie - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#420844) #
Oh yes. The Boss was a tough boss!

Hey, when you're the highest paid player in the history of the game and you go 1-22 in the World Series...
Mike Green - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#420845) #
The insult was the least of it, of course.
uglyone - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#420846) #
I agree with you Magpie that Winfield's leadership was blown out of proportion, like those kinds of narratives usually are.

Winfield's value was that he was the team's best hitter during the regular season, and one of the best in the ALCS, and though he was bad in the world series of course came up with the clutchest hit.
Magpie - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#420847) #
This was way before my time, honest - I wasn't even born - but Gil Hodges had a terrible time in the 1952 World Series. And Brooklyn fans could get harsh. But I remember reading stories about the community supporting him through his trouble, trying to cheer their hero to success. Neighbourhood priests actually said mass for him. A very different time.

It didn't work - Hodges went 0-21 in the 1952 Series.
Magpie - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#420848) #
the clutchest hit.

It was indeed a big, huge, clutch hit - but my vote for clutchiest of the clutchest has to go to Ed Sprague for the pinch hit homer in Game 2!
John Northey - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#420849) #
Trying to think of who could be a big enough name with some success to be able to push Vlad/Bo/etc. - he'd need to be very successful right now, ideally an OF who can cover CF during one of Springers IL stretches. Perfect world would also be a LH bat with power. First name to come to mind is pending free agent Aaron Judge but that is hundreds of millions. It'd be sweet to steal him from the Yankees but I don't see it happening. I keep seeing trades with Arizona as a strong possibility. Daulton Varsho is a LH hitting RF (very strong on defense, plays a lot in CF) with a 107 OPS+, so a weaker hitter than ideal but ticks all other boxes and isn't a free agent until after 2026. Arizona has 22 year old Alek Thomas in CF who has a 85 OPS+, bats left, also strong on defense. Then the guy they just called up, Corbin Carroll who is again a LH CF (no idea on his defense). 3 guys who are best in CF who all bat left handed. With a team in need of some RH pop and empty at catcher. Their #1 backup OF is (you guessed it) a LH hitter who can play CF and has a 121 OPS+ - Jake McCarthy who isn't a free agent until after 2027. Arizona has insane LH CF depth but none behind the plate and minimal RH power. If Arizona and the Jays can't make a deal this winter there is something wrong as they fit so well.

Back to leadership - those guys in Arizona wouldn't provide it, and on offense where else could you add to get it? Outside of a mega deal that costs the Jays Vlad or Bo I don't see an option and in truth we have veteran leadership in theory in Springer (has a WS title, even if it is a bit tainted) and Chapman (I suspect was a leader in Oakland for years as who else would've been, he did make the playoffs a couple of times there).

FYI: on the FanGraphs leaderboards if you expand to 300+ PA and time in CF the bottom 2 are Tapia and JBJ. Guess the Jays need to go get Nick Senzel - the only other CF listed with a negative fWAR on the season /sarcasm. Grichuk is #32 of 36 by fWAR btw so he wouldn't exactly have been much better.
Mike Green - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#420850) #
The club does have veterans who model good effort and focus- Chapman, JBJ, Espinal and Springer.  Last year, they had Semien.  Alejandro Kirk could do that in a few years.

Good consistent effort is the one that you absolutely must have, and most of the players on this club do deliver it.  Not running out at full tilt a ground ball to shortstop, with the bases loaded and two outs in a game that is not out of reach, is unfathomable to me. Sure a bobble or a wide throw might only occur 5-10% of the time but if it does, running it out may very well make the difference between inning over and a run in with the bases still loaded.  To see a player going at 50-75% in this situation hurts the eyes. 


uglyone - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#420851) #
In general I shy away from "intangibles" arguments.

They're usually unnecessary.

The Jays this year have a very good top-5ish type offense, and mediocre pitching/defense, so overall they're a bubble type borderline top-10 team.

I guess there could be an argument that intangibles may be playing a part in both their run production and run prevention SLIGHTLY trailing their underlying numbers, tho, but that would have to be proven.


Four Seamer - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#420852) #
The lack of baserunning effort not only hurts the eyes, but it calls into question the level of seriousness with which I should take this whole endeavour. When the players appear only partially invested in the outcome, it does lead me - and since I am in no way exceptional, I assume many others - to wonder why I invest any emotional energy in the enterprise. I know many of the "Charlie Hustle" types are engaging in their own con game with the public, but at least it is a polite fiction which honours the bargain between players and fans.
John Northey - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#420853) #
As to Winfield - his leadership was more getting the fans into it with his demand for noise. Winfield wants Noise was a big deal in 1992. Toronto fans back then were known for coming into the park and sitting on their hands outside of doing the wave, or reacting to the scoreboard.

The quote he made was "But I said in the playoffs, instead of a level playing field, we needed a home field advantage. That’s where we needed noise before it happens.” (via BlueJay Hunter which includes the last words from Winfield as a Blue Jay - 'we love you, you are great' - also a final interview with Tom Henke before he left as a free agent). That was a VERY big deal at the time. The Jays were a corporate team basically - the Yankees of their day when the Yankees were stinking up the joint. They had the highest payroll in MLB, if they wanted a free agent they got him starting in the 1991/1992 offseason (setting a record for highest paid pitcher to that point for Jack Morris, signing Winfield to cover the DH slot, then the next winter replacing Winfield with Molitor). It was a fun time. Division titles in 85/89/91/92/93 - preseason favorites every year from '85 through '94. Then it fell apart as Gillick left (HOF GM) for Ash (hall of shame GM).

Boy, watching that video reminds me of the changes the Jays did post 1992 - Gillick didn't want a single WS he wanted multiple. Letting their #2 starter Jimmy Key (#2 in ERA+, starts, innings) and their closer Tom Henke, SS Manny Lee, LF Candy Maldonado, and their DH Winfield all leave as free agents. Former ace Dave Stieb was let go as was future ace David Wells. Everyday 3B Kelly Gruber was dumped in a trade (for Luis Sojo a utility infielder). Plus of course many backups were gone - Pat Tabler & Rance Mulliniks retired for example. How many WS champs lose a top starter, their closer, 4 lineup regulars plus assorted others and still win a second title? DH: Molitor a big upgrade, 3B: Ed Sprague about the same, SS: Dick Schofield at first a downgrade then Tony Fernandez returned as a big upgrade, LF: traded for Darrin Jackson (downgrade) at first, then got Ricky Henderson (big upgrade but didn't play his best), Dave Stewart signed to replace Key (big downgrade but was an ace in the ALCS), promoted Ward to closer (big upgrade but left a hole at setup filled by Eichhorn who was replaced in long relief by Danny Cox).

No one can tell me upgrades aren't possible. A gutsy GM can change anything and everything even on a WS champion. Even involving fan favorites (Key, Henke, and Winfield were all that and teen girls loved Gruber with his long hair ala Bo).
Magpie - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#420854) #
Good consistent effort is the one that you absolutely must have, and most of the players on this club do deliver it

If for no other reason than it's always a good idea to simply maintain good working habits. I suspect that what often happens doesn't reflect laziness - after all, how hard is it really to run to first base - so much as disappointment. I came up to the plate, my team needed me to do something, and I cough up this useless little grounder to the infield? Oh yeah, got to run, I guess.
Magpie - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#420855) #
Cubs thread is live. The return of Marcus Stroman!
Mike Green - Monday, August 29 2022 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#420856) #
If for no other reason than it's always a good idea to simply maintain good working habits. I suspect that what often happens doesn't reflect laziness - after all, how hard is it really to run to first base - so much as disappointment. I came up to the plate, my team needed me to do something, and I cough up this useless little grounder to the infield? Oh yeah, got to run, I guess.

That's the thing.  It's not a useless little grounder.  You didn't strike out.  You didn't pop up (and yes, you can gently run down to first base on a pop-up).  The play is not freaking over and by continuing the play until it is, you increase the chances that it will work out well.  The same thing happens often not with "disappointment" as with "swagger".  The hard-hit ball that might be a home run or might be off the wall and the batter admires the ball and then starts to jog.  I regret to say that Vladdy is the one player most often on both sides of the disappointment and swagger side of things (maybe Tapia is close to him).  I am not saying Vladdy is lazy; it's just a bad habit that he needs to break.  Feel the disappointment and the pride after the play is over (i.e. you're out at first or the ball leaves the yard or you slide safely into second or third and your foot is firmly rooted in the bag!).
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