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Back on the road, as the Jays do play 16 of their first 22 games away from home.

Back on the road, as someone thought it would be fun for the Jays to play 16 of their first 22 games away from home.

And after the three games at Enron Memorial against the defending champions of All Baseball, it's off to Yankee Stadium (Version 3.0) for three games with the defending champs of the American League, East Division.

The Astros aren't off to an impressive start, though none of their AL West competitors seem inclined to take advantage. Alex Bregman isn't hitting (yet) and Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley aren't even playing (yet.) Brantley, who was shut down for shoulder surgery last June, is expected back next month, with Altuve to follow a couple (maybe more) weeks after.

One assumes that the Astros will miss their Cy Young winner, who skedaddled off to the bright lights of the big city. After all, starting pitchers who go 18-4, 1.75 only grow on very, very special trees. But we all assumed they would miss Gerrit Cole. And George Springer. And Carlos Correa. The Astros generally get by anyway.

Matchups? OK...

Mon 17 Apr - Gausman (1-1, 1.35) vs Javier(1-0, 4.24)
Tue 18 Apr - Bassitt (1-2, 7.63) vs Urquidy (1-0, 2.35)
Wed 19 Apr - Berrios (1-2, 7.98) vs Garcia (0-2, 7.71)
Toronto at Houston, April 17-19 | 98 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Ryan Day - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#427844) #
Back on the road, as someone thought it would be fun for the Jays to play 16 of their first 22 games away from home.

That was the Blue Jays, apparently, who asked for an extended road trip to start the season so they'd have time to finish renovations. And presumably MLB wasn't keen on giving them a 2-week homestand to balance things out. Details:
ISLAND BOY - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#427847) #
A sweep of the Rays would have been nice but teams that keep winning series end up with good records.

There's an interesting article on about James Click, former GM of the Astros, who the Jays astutely hired as VP of baseball strategy. Apparently he hopes to be in this job for " a long time", citing a preference to giving stability for his school-age children. This runs contrary to speculation that Click was only viewing this job as a temporary landing place before being hired as a GM somewhere else. I love the Jays strategy of bringing in great baseball minds like Click and Mattingly.
Mylegacy - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#427850) #
16 of 22 is 74% (ish) (OK, OK - So I used a calculator - big deal). Being on the road for 118 games a season, almost three quarters of the games, would be quite a test!
bpoz - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#427851) #
10 0f 16 games to date have been on the road. So 62% road VS 38% home games. We are in a 3 way tie for 2nd place. Going 4-2 in the next 6 games will be great.
hypobole - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#427853) #
I predict 81 of 162 (50.0%) Jays games will end up being played at home.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#427854) #
On the next road trip (May 1st) the Blue Jays visit: Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia.

Just one more road trip (June 13th) includes 3 cities: Baltimore, Arlington, Miami.

Toronto's next trip to the west coast (July 21st) comes after the All-Star Game.
Mike Green - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#427856) #
I predict 81 of 162 (50.0%) Jays games will end up being played at home.

Out on a limb there.  I suppose there's the possibility of a road rainout that doesn't get played because it doesn't matter.  When was the last time a team played 161 games in a year?  Found it.  There was one game in 2021 that wasn't played.  Anyone want to guess?  Hint: it involved a division winner.
Gerry - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#427857) #
Lukas up, Luplow down. Fewer lefty pitchers on the Astros.
James W - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#427858) #
In 2021, the Jays played a home game in Anaheim, due to a rain-out in Dunedin.
John Northey - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#427859) #
Well, better than the old 1899 Cleveland Spiders - 42 home games vs 112 road games - what a shock they ended up with just 20 wins (a 130 win%) and had home games with just 58 fans (opening day at home was in May with 100 fans showing up). It took COVID to get fewer fans (0) and fewer wins (19 for Pittsburgh) for a major league team. A team I love to look at as they are just sooooo bad. Heck, they even lost an exhibition game vs an amateur team. Team ERA+ of 58, OPS+ of 74. Basically their average pitcher was like Julian Merryweather was here last year, their average hitter was hitting like Joe Panik in 2021. No wonder they lost 134 games.
uglyone - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#427860) #
Lukes went down, didn't sulk, and did everything he needed to do to get called right back up. good on him. I'd like to see him get a real chance. Cuz there's the possibility of + defense plus a close to average bat there which can turn into a valuable asset pretty quick.
92-93 - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#427861) #
The Jays are scheduled to face at least 9 straight RHP, so the swap makes sense. Lukes had 5BB to 1K in his 29 AAA PA.

The club seems to really like Cam Eden as well, so he might get the next shot over Luplow if a RH OF is needed.

It will be interesting to see how Schneider works Merrifield and Espinal into the lineup with all the righty SPs on deck.
greenfrog - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#427862) #
Stanton is out for 4-6 weeks with a hamstring injury. We’ll see if the Jays can take advantage of the Yankees’ injury situation over the next month or two. The two teams play seven games against each other in April and May.
soupman - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#427863) #
according to mlb power rankings, 3/4 top teams are in the al east. they point out that the jays are one of the best teams in baseball, just beat the division leaders 2/3 and yet, the rockies are also 4 games out. so much for the more balanced schedule (so far).
Gerry - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#427864) #
Tough night in Space City.
Waveburner - Monday, April 17 2023 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#427865) #
Blue Jay starters have a collective ERA of nearly 6 on the season so far. I think they're pretty lucky to have a good record as a team so far with absolutely awful starting pitching.
Jonny German - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 05:26 AM EDT (#427866) #
The club seems to really like Cam Eden as well, so he might get the next shot over Luplow if a RH OF is needed.

What makes you say they really like him? I think he's in AAA more or less by default, the club doesn't have any outfield prospects above A-ball. Good for Eden for running with the opportunity and playing well, but the odds are very much stacked against him getting on to the 40-man in season.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#427867) #
Buck wondered if Gausman was tipping his pitches early because the Astros seemed to know what was coming. Given the history of the organization, I wondered whether they have hacked Pitchcom. What a world we live in.
Magpie - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#427868) #
Somehow I did not know the Andrew Toles story.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#427869) #
Gausman got hammered because he couldn’t locate his fastball and the Astros didn’t have much of a reason to swing at anything that wasn’t an obvious strike.

The game could have looked much different if Chapman came through down 7-1 with the bases loaded, but alas. At least Springer hit 3 balls hard even if there was nothing to show for it in the boxscore.

With respect to Eden, Jonny German, I’m just basing that off what I’ve heard from the broadcasts and reporters on 590. Eden is fast and a strong defender who found himself in some MLBish lineups in spring. I never quite understand the whole 40-man discussions, because there’s always 5-10 guys on it with zero value. With their current roster construction it would make sense to bring up their fastest and best defensive OFer for the final bench spot.
jerjapan - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#427871) #
Thanks for sharing magpie. My brother suffered from schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, so that really resonated with me. Good for the Dodgers, nice reminder that corporations aren’t always evil.

And good luck Toles. Getting the right meds was huge for my brother.

I think it’s fair to say that the Org has their eyes on Cam Eden. They definitely seem to promote players that are up the middle defensively more aggressively than other players, and perhaps more than their minor-league stats would suggest they deserve.

I think an up the middle defensive profile is likely harder to evaluate for us stat heads. the spring training ABs, the AFL assigmnts and the 40 man spots tell that story somewhat. Lukes is an example. I think they plan to just swap certain depth guys back and forth.

And man, I wouldn’t call being unhappy about a demotion sulking for a guy who still has no mlb ABs, and is back on AAA pay, in his athletic prime.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#427872) #
Buck made the comment that even with 2 strikes, the Astros weren't offering at pitches one would normally offer at.  Gausman was throwing 95 and, it's very hard to resist the splitter normally unless you know it isn't coming. 

They also hit some fastballs at the top of the zone where it seemed they may have known what was coming- whether it was tipping or something else. 
92-93 - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#427873) #
Did he stop tipping after the first inning? I thought Buck's comments were lazy analysis.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#427874) # article: re: former Houston pitcher / whistle-blower Mike Fiers:

Commissioner Manfred:

“I want to be really clear about this. Mike, who I do not know at all, did the industry a service . . .
And I have a real problem with anybody who suggests that Mike did anything other than the right thing.”

* * *

“I’m mad at this guy, the pitcher that came out talking about it,” David Ortiz said . . .

“And let me tell you why. Oh, after you make your money, after you get your ring, you decide to talk about it.
Why don’t you talk about it during the season when it was going on? Why you didn’t say,
‘I don’t want to be no part of it?’ So you look like you’re a snitch.”

92-93 - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#427875) #
Also, there were plenty of fastballs at 93. He was simply lost in the first inning.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#427876) #
David Ortiz - a PED and sign stealing cheat - a revered baseball legend. I realize that he is not unique and in the company of many, but it says quite a bit about the times we live in.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#427877) #
The club publicly didn't suggest that it was anything other than Gausman missing with his pitches early.

They started mixing in more sliders as the game went on.  It might be as simple as Gausman not wanting to throw sliders until he gets his feet wet in a game, and regularly throwing first pitch fastballs in the first inning. 
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#427879) #
I remember a story on 60 minutes that explored the PED scandals in MLB.

I was stunned by how pointed and pertinent the questions were, that is, coming from the larger news media beyond the domain of sports.

Mainstream media stories about the Blue Jays (immaterial to baseball) sometimes go unmentioned here, which is pleasantly amusing.

For instance, Anthony Bass vs. United Airlines.

soupman - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#427880) #
he's mad that he snitched, not that he cheated.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#427881) #
The lineup today has Espinal at second, Merrifield in left and Belt DHing with Jansen on the bench.  Urquidy has severe reverse splits over his career, so I understand the Espinal and Merrifield moves (to a degree).  But I don't know why you'd have Belt in there if you're not going to let Kiermaier play center. 
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#427882) #
I am not an Astros fan nor an apologist for what they did. However after reading Astroball and the terrific Ben Reiter podcast that followed it up called "The Edge" it is plausible to me (maybe even probable) that the trash can bit was not as advantageous to the batters as one might think.

By Reiters count, even with the video running, the Astros missed relaying the signs or made a mistake often...that would actually make it harder to hit! The conclusion was the team would likely have had the similar results at the plate without the cheating. This of course says nothing of the ethics.
soupman - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#427883) #
i always thought that the 'man in white' story was probably true. when i thought about how the astros weren't stripped of their title, it more or less firmed up my belief that enough teams were doing the same (or similar) that mlb took the path of least resistance instead of opening a can of worms.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#427884) #
The next 11+ games are vs. RHP. Lineup decisions will be based on keeping older guys like Belt and Kiermaier healthy and making sure Merrifield and Espinal stay sharp.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#427885) #
Soupman I think you are bang on about Manfred and the damage control fallout regarding the sign straling. It was political damage control 101. It reminded me so much of the opening scene from The Wire's final episode. Carcetti and company sitting around figuring out how to handle the serial killer mess.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#427886) #
Merrifield is older than Kiermaier, is nowhere near as good and has almost the same amount of playing time. There's a day off on Thursday.

Belt will have plenty of opportunities in NYC facing all those RH starters without reverse splits and the short porch.

I understand making one of the moves, but both is suboptimal.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#427887) #
This manager, like the one before him, seems to like to play the game on hard mode by making multiple sub-optimal lineup decisions a few times a week. I get that you need to cycle through your bench, but I agree with Mike Green that you ought to limit yourself to one of these choices a game, not two or more.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#427888) #
The calculation at some level has to be load management.
They want to keep Kiemaier off the DL.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#427889) #
Kiermaier's career high for starts is 131, and that was 8 years ago. He's on pace for 117, even after sitting tonight.

The complaint seems to be that Belt is playing instead of Jansen, a catcher with a .297 OPS this season that forces them to lose their DH if they need to PR for Kirk. Whatever.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#427890) #
Lots of video game managers in here. Making a line up is not like playing cards...put this name here and that bane there. Sometimes a guy needs a day off for personal reasons. Sometimes there is data like swing and pitch planes that factor more than "he's a lefty and he's better."

Criticizing a line up day to day is like criticizing someone's wardrobe. Did they put that shirt on because it's the perfect shirt for the occasion? Nah, it's what was clean and comfortable and the nice shirt is needed on Saturday.

Blah blah blah, Chappie just homered. Line up criticizers just tells me this team is good and there isn't a lot to complain about. Enjoy this special team.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#427892) #
If 2023-25 turns out to be the peak of the win curve, 2023 might end up being the best of those teams. Springer-Bo-Guerrero-Chapman is a wonderful core and it’s rare to have a team this healthy.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#427893) #
What a fantastic, 8 pitch at bat from Belt to kick off the 5th inning and run up Urquidy's pitch count.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#427894) #
Those were good PAs from Belt and Merrifield. And the range from Chapman into the hole is something I haven't seen in quite a while. He looks lighter on his feet générally.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#427895) #
Is this the best starting pitching performance by a Jays pitcher this year? I’ve watched the last few innings and Bassitt has been excellent.
Kasi - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#427896) #
Great performance by Bassitt. Definitely a good Stripling replacement. I am puzzled why they are bringing in Mayza in a tight game though.
Gerry - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#427897) #
Mayza is brought in to face Alvarez and Tucker....both gets hits.

Mayza appears to be the weakest link in the bullpen at the moment.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#427898) #
Romano is going to have to do a ton of heavy lifting this year. One high leverage reliever and a bunch of useful medium leverage guys. Not a bad pen but not a recipe for playoff success.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#427899) #
Alvarez hits LHP and RHP equally well.

Mayza has struggled to finish off hitters for quite a while now.

The Jays could use a Duane Ward type arm to complement Romano.
Kasi - Tuesday, April 18 2023 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#427900) #
I think the bullpen will look a lot better once Pearson replaced Richards.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#427901) #
Houston now 8-10 despite a +12 run differential.

Toronto now 11-7 despite a -5 run differential.

Only other team with a winning record/negative run differential is Miami. A whopping -23, but somehow 10-8.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#427902) #
100 win pace
85bluejay - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 05:29 AM EDT (#427903) #
Come September, the pen could include Chad Green, Nate Pearson and Yosver Zulueta.
scottt - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#427904) #
Kiermaier wasn't too keen on playing on turf again, but the Jays offered more money than anybody else.
He has a history of injury, like Springer and Belt.

Merrifield has played 162 games twice, last time, just 2 years ago.
He was worth 3.6 and 3.8 WAR those years despite modest OPS+ of 111 and 93.

The problem so far has been the starting pitching, not the bullpen.
All 7 losses are tagged against the starters.

Romano didn't get 4 outs because they have no other relievers.
Romano got 4 outs because he was ready to come in and no other relievers were warmed up.

Mayza got 1 out and recorded his second hold of the second, ironically.
Mayza is a slider/sinker pitcher with good movement.
However, his 2-seamer was working more like a screwball than a sinker yesterday.
I don't know if he's tinkering or what, but that resulted in the 2 lefty fouling hard on themselves.
There may be some benefit there today, however, that's a tough pitch to get a lefty out with.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#427905) #
One high leverage reliever and a bunch of useful medium leverage guys.

The Jays could use a Duane Ward type arm to complement Romano.

Perhaps a Stripling type reliever? I'm always for a Jim Clancy.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#427906) #
That's right.  The bullpen has been fine, but the rotation has not been.  Here are the Statcast figures for the Blue Jay pitchers. Romano has been very good.  Pop has been the second best pitcher on the club so far (not that I am anticipating that he will continue to be). 

Matt Chapman's xSLG for the season is .810.  For comparison, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez led the majors last year with expected slugs of .706 and .672.  It's only 18 games, but Chapman has been scorching.  I wonder where he'll be at the end of the month. 
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#427907) #
I'm not sure why Nate Pearson is still in AAA. He is exactly the type of high velocity strike out pitcher the bullpen needs behind Romano, and while the Jays have 'no room' in the pen, it's not because of too much quality. My guess is Bass or Richards will pitch their way off the team at some point, but Pearson isn't exactly a model of good health so you run the risk of wasting some of his healthy bullets on AAA batters.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#427908) #
Thanks for posting that Statcast report Mike. It is a surprise to see Trevor Richards so high, and Mayza in the middle. Anthony Bass is not off to a good start.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#427909) #
That's right, Gerry. And as much as Richards and Garcia have had bad luck, Cimber has been very lucky so far. His control has been way off and if he doesn't find it soon, there will be big trouble.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#427910) #
In my eye test, Jimmy Garcia has looked very good. He was unlucky last night, Bo just missed getting Duban on an infield hit and Chapman missed the next hitters batted ball. He was inches away from being out of the inning.
scottt - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#427911) #
Garcia has an option for next year for less than what he's making this year.
Richards is fairly cheap at 1.5M and has another option next year.
He's versatile. He brings something totally different to the table.
Swanson makes less, 1.25M, and has 2 years of arbitration left.
Bass is a free agent. Chad Green is mostly signed for next year.

Pop and Mitch White are under control until the end of 2027.

Joe - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#427912) #
If Bass continues as he has been, I expect he'll be first to walk the plank, with Pearson the most likely to take his place.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#427913) #
I'm not the biggest Garcia fan (nor really a detractor), but I agree that he's actually looked the best after Romano. The pen is probably fine for a 162 slog. But I don't see anyone other than Romano as a good choice to get through the heart of say the Yankees, Rays or Astros line-up in a one run game 7th inning or later. Sometime between now and September I think they will need a solution to that problem.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#427914) #
Exit Velos

* Romano 78.5
* Richards 84.8
* Mayza 87.2
* Cimber 89.2
* Bass 90.9
* Swanson 91.5
* Garcia 93.0
* Pop 93.2

Barrel %

* Romano 0.0
* Bass 4.0
* Mayza 4.8
* Richards 5.3
* Pop 6.7
* Cimber 8.3
* Garcia 13.6
* Swanson 15.8

Hard Hit %

* Romano 13.0
* Mayza 28.6
* Richards 31.6
* Pop 40.0
* Cimber 45.8
* Bass 52.0
* Swanson 52.6
* Garcia 54.5

Tiny sample still but yeah Garcia and Swanson would be the most worrisome here.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#427915) #
FG looks at Vlad improved (so far) pitch selection. Interesting discussion in the comments section on why it hasn't really translated to more HR's.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#427916) #
UO, Exit velocities are good to know, but you need (at least) launch angles as well.  Pop leads at 1.3 degrees, trailers are Gausman, Manoah, Bass and Swanson.  Pop is the only one with a higher EV on ground-balls than on line-drives and fly-balls.  His EV on ground balls is 93.2- perfect for DPs.  His EV on FB/LDs is 92.9 which would rank him 3rd behind Romano and Richards (!) on the Jays.  The trailers in this important category on Berrios, Cimber and Garcia. 
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#427918) #
true, mike.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#427919) #
Last Calendar Year

* RF Springer 619pa, 125wrc+, 4.0war/650
* SS Bichette 734pa, 139wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 1B Guerrero 748pa, 133wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 3B Chapman 657pa, 131wrc+, 5.2war/650
* DH Alejandro 560pa, 131wrc+, 4.6war/650
* LF Varsho 629pa, 106wrc+, 4.8war/650
* Jansen 275pa, 109wrc+, 4.5war/650
* CF Kiermaier 251pa, 103wrc+, 4.1war/650
* 2B Merrifield 570pa, 95wrc+, 2.2war/650

* UT Espinal 493pa, 92wrc+, 2.5war/650
* IF Biggio 319pa, 94wrc+, 2.7war/650
* DH Belt 307pa, 74wrc+, -1.7war/650
* OF Luplow 241pa, 74wrc+, 0.3war/650
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#427920) #
Chapman: most valuable position player on the team in the last calendar year. Interesting. His performance has obviously been superb this year.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#427921) #
Last Calendar Year:

* SP Manoah 33gms, 6.2ip/gm, 69era-, 89fip-, 106xfip-, 4.6war/32
* SP Gausman 33gms, 5.7ip/gm, 85era-, 64fip-, 71xfip-, 4.3war/32
* SP Bassitt 32gms, 6.0ip/gm, 99era-, 101fip-, 97xfip-, 2.6war/32
* SP Berrios 33gms, 5.5ip/gm, 135era-, 103fip-, 101xfip-, 0.8war/32
* SP Kikuchi 34gms, 3.3ip/gm, 131era-, 138fip-, 99xfip-, -0.6war/32
* SP White 23gms, 4.1ip/gm, 140era-, 98fip-, 111xfip-, 0.6war/32
* SP Ryu 4gms, 4.9ip/gm, 71era-, 106fip-, 106xfip-, 3.2war/32

* RP Romano 66gms, 1.0ip/gm, 61era-, 69fip-, 87xfip-, 1.9war/65
* RP Swanson 63gms, 0.9ip/gm, 49era-, 57fip-, 75xfip-, 1.8war/65
* RP Bass 76gms, 1.0ip/gm, 49era-, 76fip-, 85xfip-, 1.6war/65
* RP Pop 44gms, 1.1ip/gm, 63era-, 75fip-, 81xfip-, 1.0war/65
* RP Cimber 81gms, 0.9ip/gm, 69era-, 88fip-, 102xfip-, 0.7war/65
* RP Mayza 67gms, 0.8ip/gm, 78era-, 97fip-, 77xfip-, 0.5war/65
* RP Garcia 64gms, 1.0ip/gm, 96era-, 89fip, 97xfip-, 0.4war/65
* RP Richards 65gms, 1.1ip/gm, 136era-, 98fip-, 101xfip-, -0.3war/65
* RP Green 9gms, 1.1ip/gs, 121era-, 67fip-, 96xfip-, 0.7war/65
92-93 - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#427922) #
Only 1 start for Biggio in front of his parents, eh John? Hopefully the Lukes family is in town.

If the Jays' opponents stay on their current rotation schedules, the next LH SP they face is the Phillies' Strahm on May 9th.

What's the MLB record for consecutive games against a RH SP?
Michael - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#427923) #
If you add up all the last year for pitching and hitting that comes to 64.5 wins above replacement. Obviously past performance is no guarantee of future success, and playing time may not allow everyone to get the approximate full time of 650 PA, 32 GS, or 65 relief innings, but given a team of replacement players is often though of at about 47.5-52 wins, that would put the Jays at somewhere in the 112-116.5 wins range if you could keep everyone healthy and get that full season amount at the level they played the last year.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#427925) #
I think your addition is wrong there tbh.

If the starters all remained perfectly healthy and play full time (i.e. 650pa) then i think the total comes to about 56war. But of course they wont come near to all playing full time.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#427928) #
Berrios made a mistake to Meyers. But he has generally looked good tonight.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#427929) #
Phil Cuzzi ejects Max Scherzer for excess rosin: SNY twitter.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#427930) #
love it when it's the OTHER manager that yanks his cruising starting pitcher on 90 pitches for no real reason.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#427931) #
7-8-9 load the bases with nobody out.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#427932) #
that could have gone better.
Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#427933) #
Baseball can be frustrating. Jays bases loaded nine out, don’t score. Astros, bases empty 2 outs, score 3 (at least).
Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#427934) #
Make that 6
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#427935) #
You know you’re in Texas when the home team has a petroleum company logo on their uniform (Oxy).

Did someone say something about a shortage of leverage relievers on the Jays?
Nigel - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#427936) #
A difference in high leverage relieving playing out in a little morality play there.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#427937) #
Nice way of exposing the Jays lack of high leverage back end relievers. Pop has been good this season but far from established. Not sure why Schneider decided that taking Berrios out at 77 pitches when he was pitching well was the right move, but I've just accepted that the Jays (and MLB teams in general) are going to make these kinds of pitching decisions nowadays.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#427938) #
I mean he used two of his lowest leverage relievers though.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#427939) #
Relievers were rather irrelevant. Never did score a second run.

Can't blame Springer, he smoked it, but the Bo K and Vlad's lazy fly killed our chances for the win at least as much as the 6 runs we gave up in the 8th.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, April 19 2023 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#427940) #
The issue is that the bullpen is overworked because of the starters' poor showing early on... Pop had been the second best reliever before tonight and likely shouldn't have been called upon due to his workload.

The poor construction of the pen also means Pop is the only reliever with an option. The Rays always seem to have 3+ relievers in their pen with options/that can be shuttled up and down and provide at least avg production.

Fixing the bullpen was job one in the offseason but it was Swanson and done.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#427941) #
a petroleum company logo on their uniform (Oxy).

Oxy has a large sign in the outfield too. I noticed that Minute Maid Park recently removed a United Airlines billboard and replaced it with PPG paints. (Just beside Jim Umbricht's retired number 32.)

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#427942) #
Oh, not PPG paint, but PNC bank.
Michael - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 02:35 AM EDT (#427943) #
The addition on the win above average using the past year is correct if you take the position players the starting pitchers and the bullpen to get the 64.5 (if you take the rate stats that you gave, i.e., the war/650, war/32, and war/65). You get about 56 for just the starting pitchers and position players, but the bullpen gets you up to 64.5. Again, that is too much playing time for everyone since you don't really have 7 starting pitchers getting 32 starts.
Glevin - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#427945) #
"The issue is that the bullpen is overworked because of the starters' poor showing early on... Pop had been the second best reliever before tonight and likely shouldn't have been called upon due to his workload."

The lack of a long-man or even a medium man in the pen is baffling. Ideally, you have a couple of guys who can go 2-3 innings and take a load off the rest of the relievers. Jays have 0. I thought they'd try to turn Pearson into that guy but in Buffalo, he's going 1 also. I guess Juenger or Zulueta can fill that roll but Jays would have to jettison someone from the current pen (Richards or maybe Cimber I guess) and I don't think they'd want to.
92-93 - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#427946) #
Openers probably affect this, but the Jays are 25th in MLB in IP for RP. If anyone in the pen is overworked, it's entirely because of poor roster construction.
Nigel - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#427947) #
The lack of a multi inning reliever is odd and more so due to the lack of an easy Buffalo shuttle group. Although it’s slightly more forgivable in that the strength of the pen it’s is depth in actual MLB quality relievers (albeit short on high leverage arms).
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#427948) #
Oh, not PPG paint, but PNC bank.

Good luck to those Pittsburghers. Tonight, Cincinnati visits the Pirates. Tip of the cap to Reds field manager David Bell.

I sincerely do not understand why the umpires police the game so poorly.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#427950) #
George Springer's lineout to Alex Bregman with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 8th came off the bat at 102 mph and had an expected BA of .700.  For Pythagorean purposes, last night's game looks like a blowout but it really wasn't.  One play changes the leverage and the game entirely.   The Jays have benefited from luck early in the season, but they didn't get it last night. 
soupman - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#427951) #
They also spent $18m on chad green and have a couple of live arms in AAA.

I think the bullpen has outperformed my expectations so far. I think I’ve seen enough of Mayza to not want him in the game even if the lineup was all lhb. But then there’s not lefty option at all.

I’m not sure who they could have signed, and they took another live arm with upside in the Teo deal instead of someone they can shuttle this year. Maybe they should have received a bullpen piece in the Moreno trade?
uglyone - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#427953) #
Not sure why Richards wouldn't be considered a multi-inning reliever, if they wanted.

And Mitch White, of course. And Pearson.

And if Ryu gets back and/or Tiedemann earns a call, then there's more.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#427954) #
Merrifield getting called out at second base yesterday after a SB attempt was another instance of bad luck. The Jays lost an out and a baserunner in scoring position in an important situation.
bpoz - Thursday, April 20 2023 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#427955) #
Madison Bumgarner DFA'd by the D Backs.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, April 21 2023 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#427957) #
AP: " Mets pitcher Max Scherzer was suspended for 10 games . . . dropped his appeal . . . fine was reduced from $10,000 to $5,000 . . .

Scherzer became the third pitcher suspended since the crackdown on sticky substances started in June 2021.

Seattle’s Héctor Santiago was penalized that June 28 and Arizona’s Caleb Smith that Aug. 24, also 10-game penalties.

All three inspections that led to suspensions involved umpire Phil Cuzzi. "

scottt - Friday, April 21 2023 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#427960) #
The pen construction issue seems to be philosophical.
They like veteran relievers who know how to make adjustments.
They have not been aggressive with hard throwing prospects, several cases come to mind.

Having said that, Pop got beat on a slider in a 0-2 count.
It was well located and off the plate, but his slider is not his best pitch.
It wasn't a bad time for experimentation. The game had just been lost in the previous inning.
It seems to me like Pop needs to work in the top of the zone more, preferably with a 4 seamer.
His sinker is great for pitching to contact, but not that great for setting up the slider.

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