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It's the defending champs, come to our house.

The Astros are cruising along, playing very close to .600 ball, despite the fact that they're having a bit of trouble scoring runs. By their own standards anyway.

They decided it was time to move on from Yuli Gurriel at first base - last year, Lourdes' older brother hit .242/.288/.360, and he turrns 39 next week. Time to get younger. But not too much younger. The Astros moved on by signing Jose Abreu from the White Sox. Abreu, of course, is a callow youth of 36. And it hasn't gone well. Abreu has been quite a bit worse than the 2022 version of Gurriel, who meanwhile has been having something of a bounce back season in Miami.

And of course Jose Altuve was injured in the World Baseball Classic and missed the first 43 games of the season.

But no team in the AL gives up fewer runs. Justin Verlander, like Gerrit Cole before him, leaves as a free agent? No problem. We've still got two ace starters, in Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. Three rotation starters - Lance McCullers, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia - go on the IL? Also no problem. We've got lots and lots of arms, and Brandon Bielak and J.P. France have done just fine. The bullpen hasn't been quite as airtight and perfect as last year's - Rafael Montero has been very hittable, and Ryne Stanek is making Alek Manoah look like a control artiste - but the other half dozen fellows have been just fine. Or better.

And Dusty Baker is the one who manages this crew
He's older than the game itself, he's seen a thing or two
But that toothpick in his mouth
What the hell is that about?
It makes a fellow proud to be an Astro

Yes, the mighty Astros. You might say that this is a test! It's not, but if you've got to take it, you might as well pass it.


Mon 5 June - Bielak (2-2, 3.19) vs Manoah (1-6, 5.46)
Tue 6 June - Brown (5-2, 3.61) vs Gausman (4-3, 2.76)
Wed 7 June - Blanco (1-0, 4.15) vs Bassitt (6-4, 3.41)
Thu 8 June - Valdez (6-4, 2.16) vs Berrios (5-4, 3.66)
Houston at Toronto, June 5-8 | 168 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#429659) #
60 games in and still only 5 starting pitchers used. There was some debate over the quality of their work in the Mets thread, but imagine how much worse things would be if the back-up SP were required. Whoever those back-up SP are.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#429660) #
Pour one out for our man Ramiel Tapia, who got starters-level playing time for us last year, and was just DFA'd by the sox before reaching 100pa.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#429661) #
Chuck i still say Kikuchi WAS one of the "back up SP" coming into the year, if all our SP were healthy.
electric carrot - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#429666) #
Surely if Manoah sh!ts the bed in this start tonight we have enough evidence that he needs some time in the minors. I find it quite discouraging to see his name on the card and the accompanying that feeling the chances of winning are near 20%.
92-93 - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#429667) #
And you're still wrong, considering that Ryu, who was pitching terribly, got hurt in June of last year and Kikuchi was 2-1 with a 3.48era at the time.

The Jays have been incredibly fortunate with the health of their pitchers thus far. Hopefully they can last until Ryu is back, and that he's ready to contribute.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#429668) #
I'm sorry but what?

You remember that Kikuchi finished last year in the bullpen for the last 2 months, right? Even though Ryu was injured that whole yime? I.e. Kikuchi wasnt even #6 on the SP depth chart, let alone top 5?
92-93 - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#429669) #
Wow, I had no idea Abreu was hitting .213/.273/.264 after signing basically the same deal as Bassitt. It's amazing that the Astros are 35-24 with only 1 hitter that has an OPS over .800.
hypobole - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#429670) #
It's a gut feeling, but I suspect our starters health is not all fortune. Teams that seem to develop nasty pitchers also seem to have a lot of pitcher injuries.

Our coaches seem to be more tweakers and the Jays have also seemed to target lower ceiling pitchers with a history of health like Berrios and Kikuchi. Bassitt has had a few like getting struck by a liner, but nothing arm related since his 2016 TJ AFAIK.
92-93 - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#429671) #
I do remember that, uglyone. If you want to pretend that Mitch White and his 7.74era over 8 starts with the team was a lock for the rotation, go ahead. The Jays chose to enter this year with Kikuchi as their 5th SP.
scottt - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#429674) #
Kikuchi was the favourite to be the 5th starter this year, even though he pitched himself into the pen last year.
The options for 6th and 7th starter don't look very good.
Zach Thompson has been bad.
Francis Bowden has looked better lately, but not a ton better than Casey Lawrence.
Zulueta is probably a reliever but he seems to be taking the failed starter path to the pen.
Tiedemann has started slowly and I don't think he'll skip AAA.
Robberse, Koff, even  Paxton Schultz have been better overall.

2023 Manoah has been worse than 2022 Kikuchi, does that make him a backup?

uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#429676) #
The team chose to enter the year with no clear #5 SP, and in fact Berrios as #4 was iffy himself. They did this because they had a number of options they knew would be healthy and/or ready at some point - Ryu, Kikuchi, White, Pearson, Tiedemann, Hatch, Zulueta. They also brought in a number of vets as AAAA type candidates, like Hutchinson and Thompson.

Kikuchi was the only one of them healthy/ready to start the year.

To his credit, though, Kikuchi did come into camp looking good and may have well won the job outright even if the others were healthy, but would have probably won it by default anyways even if he looked bad. (actually healthy Ryu and Kikuchi likely wouldn't have made the rotation even with that good spring training.)

Any media take from the start of Spring Training would have said the same thing. Here's SI's "5 Big Questions" take on Blue Jays ST for example:

"Who's The Fifth Starter?

This is the big battle. Like any good contending team, the Blue Jays don't have many meaningful spots up for grabs in spring, but the final rotation spot is one exception.

While vets like Zach Thompson and Drew Hutchison could make a case with strong spring play, the fifth starter contest seems down to Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White. Both guys had ERAs over five last year but have shown better before, with a 4.42 ERA for Kikuchi and 3.66 for White with their previous teams in 2021. Currently, Kikuchi has a leg up as White's starter build-up was slightly delayed by a shoulder impingement, but both will have an opportunity to earn the job out of camp."

Kelekin - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#429677) #
Looking at our starter's expected stats via Statcast:


Gausman - 3.31 (75th Percentile)
Bassitt - 4.58 (35th)
Berrios - 4.58 (35th)
Kikuchi - 5.40 (16th)
Manoah - 6.42 (6th)

Of course, we know Bassitt and Berrios struggled at the start of the year and have been much better since. It's safe to say our well-above-average defense has been immensely helpful in keeping runs down overall though, but there is definitely cause for concern when it comes to both Kikuchi and Manoah.
Kelekin - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#429678) #
Whoops, messed up a bit - the percentile rankings were from xwOBA.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#429679) #
The other thing is that the Jays starters also have very healthy histories.

I don't think Gausman, Manoah, Berrios, Bassitt, Kikuchi have ever missed any significant time to injuries ever. Like even once.

I think this is Ryu's second injury of his career. He missed half a season with a groin strain back in 2018 too.

uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#429680) #

Offseason Tracker

* Kiermaier: 160pa, 126wrc+, 1.5war, 6.1war/650pa
* Gurriel: 217pa, 143wrc+, 1.7war, 5.1war/650pa

* Belt: 161pa, 126wrc+, 0.5war, 2.0war/650pa
* Teoscar: 243pa, 92wrc+, 0.3war, 0.8war/650pa

* Varsho: 244pa, 84wrc+, 0.5war, 1.3war/650pa
* Moreno: 163pa, 86wrc+, 0.3war, 1.2war/650pa

Petey Baseball - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#429681) #
Things are looking better if the team continues to pitch like the last two times through rotation. The bullpen has been shored up with clearly defined roles.

Unfortunately, the next two teams they play have excellent offenses. Time for the offense to really step up.

uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#429682) #

* Bassitt: 12gms, 6.2ip/gm, 81era-, 1.0war, 2.5war/32gms
* Stripling: 9gms, 3.6ip/gm, 171era-, -0.6war, -2.0war/32gms

* Swanson: 28gms, 1.0ip/gm, 67era-, 0.5war, 1.2war/65gms
* Merryweather: 24gms, 1.0ip/gm, 96era-, 0.2war, 0.5war/65gms
* Phelps: ---
Chuck - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#429683) #
I had no idea Abreu was hitting .213/.273/.264

That is in keeping with Mario Mendoza's career line of 215/245/262. Abreu is on a minus-4 WAR pace, 8 less than his 4 WAR of 2022. That's a hell of an impact for one player.

Magpie - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#429686) #
I think this is Ryu's second injury of his career.

I believe he had TJ surgery when he was a young pitcher in Korea, before he came over to North America.


Yep, TJ surgery way back in 2004, when he was just 17 years old. Shoulder surgery in May 2015, cost him the entire season. Elbow problems immediately after coming back in July 2016, another surgery that September. I guess the elbow finally blew up last June.
hypobole - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#429687) #
Yeah, I seem to remember when Ryu signed with the Jays, injuries were a major concern. Coming off a 95 loss season, weren't many pitchers who wanted to come here I guess. Hence Ryu and Roark.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#429688) #
Thanks for checking on Ryu.

am i right to say that none of the other SP have any injury history to speak of?
Magpie - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#429689) #
am i right to say that none of the other SP have any injury history to speak of?

Pretty much. Bassitt had TJ surgery in 2016, but Gausman, Berrios, and Kikuchi have been almost freakishly healthy.

Knocks on wood.
92-93 - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#429690) #
Speaking of injuries, Jansen looked pretty good warming up at the Dome today and is eligible to come off the IL. With 7 straight days of action it would be great if he didn't need a rehab stint so they can avoid having to start Heineman 2-3 times.

Kirk PHd for Heineman in the 8th yesterday with the Jays up 6-4. That's a move that's likely not made if Varsho isn't on the roster, and it's the kind of value WAR will never capture (albeit a small one).
John Northey - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#429691) #
I wonder how the Jays will deal with Ryu when he comes back (if he does) in August? I'm thinking a 6 man rotation if he is effective, especially since Sept is right there with expanded rosters so another pitchers slot added. The current rotation with 4 days rest: 252/329/435 4.32 ERA over 150 IP. 5 days: 205/289/339 2.69 ERA over 147 1/3 IP. 6+ days: 316/361/548 6.21 ERA over 42 IP (mostly everyone's first start of the season). This suggests an extra day of rest is a good thing, but too much isn't. Given what we know, and how by late August most staffs are exhausted, going with 6 might be a smart move for the final month or two. 7 man pen at first, then back to 8 once Sept 1st rolls around should work if the guys go 5+ like they mostly seem to be doing now. The pen by then should be Romano-Swanson-Green-Garcia-Pearson-Mayza-Cimber-Richards for a full 8 with Pop, Jackson, whoever in the wings - I expect Bass to be long gone by September. I suspect Cimber will have a phantom injury late August to let Ryu back in, then be at 100% come Sept 1st.
BlueJayWay - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#429692) #
If Manaoh gets blown up tonight they'll surely have to do something. I phantom IL stint, optioning him down to the minors....
greenfrog - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#429693) #
Iím wondering whether Manoah might be the pitching equivalent of Brett Lawrie. Huge hype to start his career, bit of a hothead, maybe undone a bit by the pressure. Hopefully thatís not the case.
Joe - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#429694) #
The downside to a 6-man rotation is that you get your best pitchers less frequently. I wouldn't mind Gausman and Bassitt staying on 4 days' rest, with Ryu joining Kikuchi, Berrios and Manoah as filling in the rest.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#429695) #
I sure hope he doesn't turn out like Lawrie.

Though Lawrie was a massive 171pa after his first callup, and then 5 years of....mediocrity. Not actually bad. Just an averagish hitter with decent defense and baserunning.

Manoah had almost two full seasons of absolute dominance, and then his last 12 starts have been truly horrendous, not mediocre.
92-93 - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#429696) #
The chances that Ryu proves himself capable of joining the rotation at the same time that the current 5 are healthy and rolling is basically zero.
Gerry - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#429697) #
Mitch White is no longer being considered as a possible starter. He will now be a bulk/regular reliever option.

Zach Pop felt a hamstring tweak while on rehab and is being re-evaluated.
greenfrog - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#429698) #
The self-immolation continues apace.
Kasi - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#429699) #
I think you have to demote him after this. Itís just not working Iíd rather have Casey Lawrence.
GabrielSyme - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#429700) #
I was going to give Manoah a pass on the first three batters - a little looper, a bunt and a moderately-hit line drive. But then he went deep fly out, line drive, walk, grand slam, line drive and I'm on board with the phantom DL/bust him back to high-A Halladay strategy.
BlueJayWay - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#429701) # now they have to do something.
But what?
Gerry - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#429702) #
Does it do any good to keep running Manoah out there? He needs a mental break as much as anything. I know Thomas Hatch or Casey Lawrence are not much, but they could do better than get one out.
Nigel - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#429703) #
We are about to find out who the 6th starter is for this team and the options aren't pretty. They are in real trouble if one of the other four gets injured.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#429704) #
Let's give Nate a try.
Magpie - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#429705) #
Trent Thornton is better than this.
Gerry - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#429706) #
The Jays are handicapped by not having optionable pitchers in the bullpen. Bassitt will replace Jackson tomorrow.

If you blow out the bullpen today then the only guy you can option is Pearson. You could DFA Bass too.

As an aside I always feel sorry for guys like Jackson. He knows he needs to go deep to save the bullpen and he also knows that he will be optioned after the game.
Gerry - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#429707) #
Trent Thornton went on the IL on May 24.
Nigel - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#429708) #
Heineman might have to give them 2-3 innings tonight.
Magpie - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#429709) #
Heineman might have to give them 2-3 innings tonight.

Isn't there a rule now tat you have to be losing by so many runs before a position player can pitch?
Cracka - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#429710) #
I wouldn't be surprised to see Bowden Francis as the next guy up, maybe as early as tomorrow. He has made three decent starts since returning from injury and got up to 75 pitches last outing (May 31st), so he's stretched out and rested. He's not on the 40-man roster so another move would be required...

As for Manoah, I would option him to the player development complex (and not Buffalo) and have him pitch in private until there are positive signs of improvement. At this point, I'm not expecting him back until after the all-star break.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#429711) #
Starts needed before All-Star Break:

* June 6 - Gausman
* June 7 - Bassitt
* June 8 - Berrios
* June 9 - Kikuchi
* June 10 - MANOAH/ALT
scottt - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#429712) #
6 runs I believe, so no problem.
Heineman and Lukes could be finishing the game.
Bass and Garcia need works before that.

uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#429713) #
Starts needed before All-Star Break:

* June 6 - Gausman
* June 7 - Bassitt
* June 8 - Berrios
* June 9 - Kikuchi
* June 10 - MANOAH/ALT****
* June 11 - Gausman
* June 12 - off day
* June 13 - Bassitt (5 day rest)
* June 14 - Berrios (5)
* June 15 - Kikuchi (5)
* June 16 - Gausman
* June 17 - MANOAH/ALT****
* June 18 - Bassitt
* June 19 - Berrios
* June 20 - Kikuchi
* June 21 - Gausman
* June 22 - Off day
* June 23 - Bassitt
* June 24 - Berrios
* June 25 - Kikuchi
* June 26 - Off day
* June 27 - Gausman (5)
* June 28 - Bassitt
* June 29 - Berrios
* June 30 - Kikuchi
* July 01 - MANOAH/ALT****
* July 02 - Gausman
* July 03 - Off day
* July 04 - Bassitt (5)
* July 05 - Berrios (5)
* July 06 - Kikuchi (5)
* July 07 - Gausman
* July 08 - MANOAH/ALT****
* July 09 - Bassitt

So that's actually only 4 starts needed from Manoah/Alt before the break - and that's with nobody going on short rest and most of them getting a couple turns with extra rest.

You could eliminate another one by getting a start or two on short rest.

Apparently, Ryu is looking at returning around then.
scottt - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#429714) #
At most, Nate could be the opener for Mitch White, but that's not happening this week.
Nigel - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#429715) #
I think the rule change was to make it down by 8 before a position player could pitch. If Garcia needs work he should be able to accomplish that fairly easily:)
Gerry - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#429716) #
Baseball is a funny game. Jay Jackson was optioned to Buffalo on May 16th. He appeared in four games, threw 4.2 innings and gave up seven runs.

Surprisingly he was recalled and he has pitched really well tonight.
Magpie - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#429717) #
Jackson's been a short reliever for the last eight years. But i he can hang on through the fourth... two from Garcia or Bass, and they can summon Heineman to finish!
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#429718) #
39 pitches for Jackson.

Top of the order up next inning.

I might bring a fresh arm in.
greenfrog - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#429719) #
The game isn't over yet. The Jays are only down by five.
Nigel - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#429720) #
Jackson can't give them another inning. You know that Heineman and Lukes have moved to the far end of the dugout and even if the manager's end of the dugout catches fire they aren't looking at the manager for the rest of the game.
scottt - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#429721) #
So it seems. Leading teams can use a position player if up by 10 in the 9th, trailing teams can use a position player if down by 8.

The could send Manoah down and bring up a reliever for the rest of this series and then bring up a starter (Francis?) for Manoah's next start.

To create room on the 40 roster, they could outright Lukes and keep Heineman.

Magpie - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#429722) #
The game isn't over yet.

And hence Richards, rather than Garcia or Bass.

I confess that I also haven't completely abandoned the dream of Nate Pearson, starting pitcher. But it's probably at least two years since he went longer than two innings. He'd need a few weeks to get stretched out (if he can, without hurting himself again.) The Jays need someone, who is not Alek Manoah, to start this Saturday's game.
Magpie - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#429723) #
Heineman can start getting loose!
hypobole - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#429724) #
29 yr old Zach Thompson is on the 40 man. If he's not good enough to replace Manoah, and he doesn't seem to be, what's the point of him being on the 40 man? If Francis is the better option, just DFA Thompson.
Ryan Day - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#429725) #
Anthony Bass may have made his roster spot available tonight, too.  Maybe he wants more time for his job as a social media influencer.
lexomatic - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#429726) #
It's amazing that if you ADD Manoah's previous 2 seasons ERA, you get his ERA this season. 5.46. How often can that happen.
This has been a pretty monumental collapse. It's a pretty huge blow to the Jays ability to contend over the next few years if they can'tfigure out whats wrong and address it, or get a new prospect up.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#429727) #
The other 4 starters are signed for next year and Ryu's contract is off the books. Might have to dip into free agency again if Tiedemann or someone else needs another year when Kikuchi's contract ends.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#429728) #
What a weird start. Despite giving up six runs, it was actually the best Manoah's pitches had looked in a long time. Reports are the bullpens are getting better. He still needs to be sent down - but there are small pockets of optimism in this whole mess.
Michael - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 02:45 AM EDT (#429729) #
I know he's got a full no trade clause, but I'd be trying to see if Zack Greinke could be traded from a last place KC team. He's making about $7.5M and with incentives could go to $15M total for the 1/year deal, but if you guarantee the $15M and offer some couple of C prospects could that work for KC and for Greinke? Go no where Oakland is also a possible trade target but they don't have anyone decent and old so not the same sort of obvious target that Geinke would be.

He's had 12 starts, gone 62.1 IP, with a 4.19 ERA but only a 1.14 WHIP. You could do a lot worse as a 5th starter filling out the rotation in the absence of Manoah - assuming you send down Manoah to try to straighten things out.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 03:16 AM EDT (#429730) #
When Manoah was pitching well, he seemed to hit batters occasionally with sliders that missed inside. Now he doesn't seem to hit batters and his misses seem to be fastballs well out of the zone. I don't know if there is a correlation or not.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#429731) #
On a more positive note, Varsho has quietly picked up his offence the past few weeks. Cut down on the K's and the HR he popped last night put him into double digits, behind only Bo.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#429732) #
Now he doesn't seem to hit batters

He is. He hit 1 batter per 13 innings last year and is hitting 1 per 12 innings this year. Both of these are improvements over his rookie year when he hit 1 per 7 innings.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#429733) #
[Manoah] seemed to hit batters occasionally

To be precise, Manoah hits batters as frequently as any starting pitcher in the history of baseball. Bassitt and Cimber both hit plenty of batters as well, but there's just no comparison. Manoah has hit 36 of them in his 366.1 career innings, which is just... well I don't know what it is. He's just 5 HBP behind Clayton Kershaw, who's thrown 2,200 more innings. Manoah hits batters more frequently than Charlie Morton, which I still find hard to believe.

He can't quite match Aaron Loup's knack for it, but no one can do that.
Michael - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#429734) #
I remember early Pedro Martinez hit a lot of batters, but that was back-to-back 11 HBP seasons. Manoah had 16 HBP followed by 15 HBP so nearly 50% more than that early Pedro numbers. And he's at 5 HBP already this year.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#429735) #
I would have given Bowden Francis yesterday's start, and said so days ago. He was on schedule but with Buffalo's day off yesterday, he's now off a day. Manoah needs to be in some other role for the time being.

It's a shame that Mayza ended up going 1.1 innings in a blowout. They've got one left-handed reliever, and he's one of their best. More effort should have bee made to conserve him for more important situations.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#429736) #
Agreed that using Mayza yesterday was unfortunate. Even if it meant Bass or Cimber going longer that would be ideal they should have avoided that.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#429737) #
Manoah optioned to Dunedin. Bowden Francis recalled.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#429738) #
Also Bassitt is back for Jackson.

Espinal is back for Clement.

Zach Thompson DFA'd.
Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#429739) #
Pretty amazing to have your opening day starter optioned 6/6. And itís not like the Jays are a developing team. What a fall. Hopefully he finds it again.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#429740) #
Not shocking the option is to Dunedin rather than Buffalo, more like "Hmmm, they actually did it". But it's pretty well unprecedented I think.

I know about Halladay, but he didn't almost win the Cy Young the year prior.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#429741) #
Manoah's issue could be conditioning. If so Dunedin would be the better option.

Manoah's issue could be his delivery, in that case Dunedin would be the better option with the pitching lab there.

Buffalo would be best if he just needed work.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#429742) #
I think the destination tells us that this isnít seen as a quick fix and that we may not see him on the mound for a while. Whether conditioning or mechanical, the fix may take a while.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#429743) #
Not shocking the option is to Dunedin rather than Buffalo, more like "Hmmm, they actually did it". But it's pretty well unprecedented I think.

I know about Halladay, but he didn't almost win the Cy Young the year prior.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#429744) #
Started a new thread on just Manoah going down as I figure we'll all have lots of takes on it.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#429745) #
Sorry for the double post.

IMO, it's conditioning and mechanical and mental.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#429746) #
It went unnoticed because of Manoah and the lopsided score, but Schneider's managing in yesterday's game was pretty bad. On top of burning Mayza, he left Bichette in the game to play 2 innings on defense and then yanked him from a 10-2 game with two men on base in the 7th. If Bo wasn't going to take that at bat it made little sense to not pull him after his previous AB. He proceeded to let Vladdy hit (he scorched a double, making it 10-3), and then pinch-hit for Chapman with 2 men on when one swing gets the game back within striking distance. Vladdy then proceeded to play defense in the 8th and the 9th innings before being yanked for his final AB. Quite confusing; either throw in the towel, or don't.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#429747) #
I think Schneider was managing to get Heineman into the game:)
John Northey - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#429750) #
A few oddities there - but when losing by a lot late there really isn't much point in keeping Bo & Vlad in there. Yeah, pulling Bo a couple innings earlier would've made sense but I'm guessing he didn't want to as the risk was low and Bo probably wanted to stay in. But down 8 in the 7th why not give Clement an AB to see what he does with it before he goes down again. Vlad probably wanted to keep working on something there so he stayed in for one more PA, it worked, so he was good with being pulled in the 9th.
scottt - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#429752) #
Francis has been decent in Buffalo. Good strikeout numbers: 13.2K/9, but he's been hurt by the long ball: 2.3 HR/9. It adds up to an ERA of 3.45.

Francis is 6'5", 225lbs and has big shoes to fill.

I'm not asking for more than a 100 ERA+.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#429753) #
He couldíve just brought Heinemann in instead of Mayza if those were his intentions. The Jays seem more reluctant than other teams to use position players on the bump. Hopefully Mayza is available to get some key outs tonight.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#429758) #
He couldíve just brought Heinemann in instead of Mayza if those were his intentions.

Once the score was 11-4, and the Jays were no longer trailing by 8, they were not permitted to bring in a non-pitcher. Varsho's home run in the 8th sealed Heineman's fate.

Nigel - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#429759) #
I was kidding:)

Having said that, Mayza was brought in before Varsho's HR, so he could have been brought in. Therefore, it's pretty clear that Schneider was trying to keep his high leverage arms - Pearson, Swanson, Romano and Heineman available for tonight's game. Smart thinking.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#429761) #
Heineman was wearing an infielderís glove in the dugout when Varsho hit his home run. He seemed poised to take the 9th.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#429762) #
Duh - they might have scored 7 in the bottom of the 8th - of course Heineman needed to be ready to take the 9th:)
Chuck - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#429764) #
Some unsurprising injury news. Byron Buxton, limited to DH to keep him healthy, is heading to the IL anyway. Jacob deGrom, the "35M for 100 innings" pitcher will not be pitching 100 innings this year, or next, as he is slated for Tommy John surgery.

And water is still wet.

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#429765) #
Great job by Springer to turn around that fastball.

The previous PA, the ump really blew a 1-1 call with Espinal at the plate. Brown threw a fastball well off the plate outside that was called a strike. 1-2 versus 2-1 can really change the complexion of a PA. Espinal ended up popping out to RF.

I donít mind a blown call when itís close, but not when the pitch is a few inches outside the zone.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#429766) #
Phew, after watching the Mets and the deGrom news shows how much worse things could've been. Imagine if the Jays had signed deGrom instead of Bassitt. Ugh.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#429767) #
man i'd be tempted to let Gausman go another inning.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#429768) #
Just doing the All-Star vote and noticed by OPS Vlad is 3rd in the AL at 1B despite having a 'poor' year. That you can put 3 ex-Jay OF on the NL roster who all have OPS higher than any current Jay (Gurriel, Grichuk, and Dickerson).
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 06 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#429770) #
Signing Gausman to a five-year, $110m contract was one of the best moves ever made by a Blue Jays front office.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#429773) #
Gausman's deal really looks good doesn't it? Bassitt's is on the good track too, even if FanGraphs has him at just 0.6 WAR (FIP of 4.80 vs ERA of 3.41). Oddly so does BR which seems odd as they used to use ERA and his ERA+ is 121 while FanGraphs uses FIP and the like iirc.

Kikuchi seemed a bust last year but this year is worth his $10 mil (0.2 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR due to a 5.96 FIP vs 4.40 ERA) well, unless you subscribe to FIP as a better measure of value than actual results (I see it as a good early warning sign for future performance). Berrios even is making his deal look decent now, 3.66 ERA 3.70 FIP 1.3 fWAR 0.8 bWAR.

Checking BR it seems they have adjusted pitchers WAR. BR definition of pitchers WAR - "runs allowed by the pitcher and compares it to the league average pitcher (adjusting for quality of opposition), parks pitched in, and quality of defense behind the pitcher."
Michael - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 05:37 AM EDT (#429775) #
Yeah, Vlad's clearly struggling and doing worse than we'd expect, but he's so good that even a struggling underperforming Vlad is really good (like the top 3 at position OPS).
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#429777) #
Looking at the FG Batters Leaderboard. Bo 4th behind only Franco, Semien and Acuna. Chapman still 12th. But book-ending him are Jonah Heim and Adolis Garcia, so 3 Rangers top 13.

Knew Rangers have started hot, with great pitching results, but didn't realise they lead baseball in runs scored as well. Rangers have scored in double digits 16 times already. Jays 4 times, even Tampa only has 8.

Part of that is competition. 4 teams have 5+ ERA's. Rangers have played them 19 times, Jays only the 4 games vs KC. 7 of those 19 games they scored 10 runs. But there's 9 other games they've scored 10 including twice each vs the Phillies, Mariners and Angels.

Manoah was scheduled to start the series opener vs Texas next week.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#429779) #
2 totally unrelated subjects?

#1 Overachieving Miami Heat are in the NBA Finals.
"Every player is going to be under 10 percent body fat. That's the norm in Miami."
"The Heat's strength and conditioning program is legendary in NBA circles. While the program is multifaceted, each year, all players must prove they didn't loaf during the off-season by passing the same test: 10 full-court sprints, down and back, in under 60 seconds. They must do this five times to pass."

#2 The 3 Jays that look to have conditioning issues also are 3 of the biggest underachievers this year.
Paul D - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#429781) #
I don't believe that Kyle Lowry is under 10 per cent body fat. Also, the demands of baseball are different than basketball, and I'm not sure that getting everyone below 10% body fat would even be desirable
scottt - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#429783) #
There's basically 2 weeks of tough opponents before the soft underbelly of the schedule.
The last 12 games are against the Yankees and the Rays, but they will have a lot of opportunities to make ground before that.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#429784) #
From % body fat to the soft underbelly of the schedule, I'm sensing a theme for today's discussions.

Hypobole, the underperformers are Manoah, Guerrero Jr. and who. Espinal? Biggio? Cimber?
uglyone - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#429785) #
Springer, Varsho, Bass, Garcia
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#429786) #
You're right about the 10%. I copied the quote without double-checking - it's actually 18%. Lowry definitely looks trimmer this year than last (after criticism from Pat Riley).

Not saying baseball players need to be as fit as Miami Heat players, but when players look less and even much less fit than their teammates and they underachieve, I can't help but wonder if its causation rather than simply correlation.
Michael - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#429787) #
Kirk would be the other one below expectations based on May (he was fine in April and really SSS but fine in June also, so it looks like he's found himself again).
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#429789) #
Hypobole, the underperformers are Manoah, Guerrero Jr. and who. Espinal? Biggio? Cimber?

I'm guessing his #3 is Kirk?
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#429790) #
Hypobole, the underperformers are Manoah, Guerrero Jr. and who.

Kirk. at 24 should be reaching his peak. Last year 129 wRC+, 3.8 WAR. This year 98 wRC+, on pace for 1.6 WAR.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#429792) #
Mike Green - good point there with body fat - no sane person would think Biggio, Espinal or Cimber has much. Yet all 3 are underperforming just like Vlad, Manoah, and Kirk. But their underperformance makes them near unplayable vs Vlad & Kirk still being solid regulars.

There is more than conditioning involved here. Yes, it could be a factor but there are 1001 other things too. NBA and NHL both require top fitness levels, MLB has had guys like David Wells and Bartolo Colůn be massive successes, not to mention Babe Ruth (very fit early but not so much later on).
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#429793) #
2 days after Roger Craig, maybe the greatest proponent of the split finger fastball passes away, Kevin Gausmann ties a career high with 13 K's.

Here's Fangraphs on Roger Craig.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#429795) #
Espinal, Biggio and Cimber were worth about 4 WAR combined last year. Their performance or lack thereof is a lot less crucial to the success of this years Jays then any of the 3 I named.
scottt - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#429796) #
Kirk is slugging .342.
Varsho is at 1.4 WAR. I'm totally happy with that. That's exactly the same as Moreno.
It doesn't look like Kirk will reach 1.4 before the end of the year. 

Kirk might need to be sent down to learn the benefit of conditioning, but that's not an option right now.
Maybe they sign a backup on a spring training invite next year...

Nigel - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#429797) #
In the "can you believe it" category - Ryan Noda, with a hit and 2 BBs today, is rocking a 153wRC+ and a 20% BB%. This is no longer a small sample size either.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#429798) #
Yeah on the FG leaderboard this morning, Noda is #30 in MLB, between Pete Alonso and Julio Rodriguez, 2 spots ahead of Lourdes Gurriel. Also has +1.3 BsR, 2nd on the team. Might end up being the best Rule 5 pickup in years.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#429799) #
In the impressive stats dept., Luis Arraez is currently hitting .401/.451/.495. He has an 8.1 BB% and a 4.7 K%.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#429800) #
Underachievers vs. Last Year

* 1.Manoah: +94era-, -7.3war/32gms
* 2.Varsho: -15wrc+, -3.1war/650pa
* 3.Springer: -32wrc+, -3.0war/650pa
* 4.Kirk: -31wrc+, -2.3war/650pa
* 5.Espinal: -53wrc+, -2.3war/325pa (bench pa)
* 6.Jansen: -54wrc+, -2.2war/325pa (bench pa)
* 7.Bass: +79era-, -1.9war/65gms
* 8.Biggio: -33wrc+, -1.7war/325pa (bench pa)
* 9.Garcia: +62era-, -1.5war/65gms
* 10.Cimber: +24era-, -1.3war/65gms
* 11.Vladdy: -5wrc+, -0.6war/650pa
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#429801) #
All right. I don't have any firm opinions on the role of conditioning in underperformance.  I will say this about Kirk.  By all accounts, he is disciplined in all aspects of the game save for his eating habits.  Personally, I'm inclined to believe that he's simply worn out from being a new father.  The man has soul and ultimately that will work to his advantage. 
Chuck - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#429802) #
In the impressive stats dept., Luis Arraez is currently hitting .401/.451/.495

Further, he has recorded exactly one triple and exactly one home run, and those were in the same game, a game in which he hit for the cycle.

Nigel - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#429803) #
Noda added a HR for good measure.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#429804) #
With the 400 average, don't forget the last 2 Jays to challenge it - 1993 John Olerud is the most remembered, lasted until August 3rd. However, 1999 Tony Fernandez made it to June 28th then fell apart (248 after with little power and few walks) so ended up going to Japan in 2000. Sigh.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#429805) #
Daulton Varsho is listed at 5' 10" and 207 lbs.

(number of players) x (average player weight) = (total volume)

(26 players) x (207.25 lbs.) = (5,388.5 lbs.) = 2.4 tons

two-and-a-half tons of beef?

clubhouse? it's a meat locker over here.

Nigel - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#429806) #
Say a prayer to Jobu's pitching sibling that Bassitt keeps getting as lucky as he did in that first inning. Three smoked hits and rather than a run in, two on and all kinds of trouble he got three outs on 5 pitches.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#429807) #
Canada . . . number 1.

Venezuela . . . number 1.

Cuba . . . number 1.

USA . . . argh ! [x]

uglyone - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#429808) #
Bo live AL update

* #1 AVG
* #5 HR
* #6 RBI
* #5 wRC+
* #3 WAR
Nigel - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#429809) #
Bo could really use some help. After crazy hot starts from Chapman and KK, this has largely been a limp run scoring offence, outside of Bo and probably Belt (after the first couple of weeks).
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#429810) #
Belt 2, Old Man Skills Narrative 0
uglyone - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#429811) #
5th extra base hit in the last 4gms for Belt.

Power's coming finally.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#429812) #
Need a shutdown inning here from Bassitt.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#429814) #
I'm inclined to believe that he's simply worn out from being a new father.

Would make more sense if Kirk was great on the road, without the baby around and poor at home. But it's very much the other way around.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#429815) #
Time for some Varsho magic?
uglyone - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#429816) #
I would not be pulling Bassitt here. Not sure what the thinking is.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#429817) #
1st pitch double. just missed a HR.

what were you thinking, schneider.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#429818) #
Thank KK tonight, john.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#429819) #
That was scarier than it should have been.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#429820) #
Romano kinda deserved the KK catch. That was a poor swing decision by Dubon on that down and way inside slider that he almost hit out and went for a double. I was going to say he golfed it, but it was more a cricket swing.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#429821) #
Great to see Brandon Belt doing well. He looked awful early on, numbers and eye test, but has bounced back tremendously since, and has given the Jays a legit middle of the order LH bat finally.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#429822) #
Belt 2, Old Man Skills Narrative 0

Well played, greenfrog

Magpie - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#429823) #
Not sure what the thinking is.

Schneider said after the game that he didn't want Bassitt to face hitters for a fourth time. Which is a thing, I guess. And closing it out is Romano's job on the team. I dunno.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#429825) #
I am guessing that Schneider's approach to the 9th inning would have been different if the club had more than a one run lead or if Alvarez was not one of the scheduled batters.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#429826) #
So after commenting this morning on the awesome Rangers offence, Cards beat them tonight 1-0, wasting Jon Gray's 9 inning, 12K performance.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 07 2023 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#429827) #
Belt 2, Old Man Skills Narrative 0

There's some shoddy score keeping going on. Just yesterday he had a walk, two strikeouts and a double. We're not counting that one in favour of the narrative? We're only counting the games he hits a home run? Bah!

hypobole - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#429828) #
Fun with run..differential.

3 divisions have only 1 team with a positive run differential. Those would be the:

1st place Twins in the AL Central.
1st place Atlanta in the NL East
Last place Cards in the NL Central.
Kelekin - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#429829) #
I think the emotional side of it tells us that Bassitt was pitching so well that it'd be crazy to take him out. But the data side of it says 4th time through the order + facing Dubon and Alvarez who were the most effective hitters against him was a risk.

Of course, part of what makes baseball enjoyable is those emotions. But the team is in the business of trying to do what they think will give them the best chance of winning, and statistically speaking putting in your top-tier closer makes sense (although he sometimes forgets he has an elite fastball).

But even then, an elite closer is only going to save a 1-run game roughly one-third of the time. So there are optics risks.

Fun game though. I had to actually figure out what to do with the extra 30 minutes back.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 03:21 AM EDT (#429831) #
I think Alvarez being due up in the ninth influenced Schneider's decision more than anything. He is 5/15 with 4 HRs and 9 RBI's lifetime against Bassitt.
Michael - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 06:40 AM EDT (#429832) #
"But even then, an elite closer is only going to save a 1-run game roughly one-third of the time."

What do you mean by that? The typical half inning only has a hair over a 25% chance of there being at least one run scored, so an elite closer is going to succeed in a 1-run game at least 75% of the time, and if they are really an elite closer it is probably more like 85-90%. Or do you just mean sometimes they will not be brought into the game at all because they are not available or the starter is pitching well enough to keep pitching or something?
hypobole - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#429833) #
"But even then, an elite closer is only going to save a 1-run game roughly one-third of the time."

Closers also save 2-run games and 3-run games roughly one-third of the time each.
Nigel - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#429835) #
I agreed with the decision to pull Bassitt. The first three hitters in the lineup had made loud contact all night against him.
Magpie - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#429836) #
Bassitt himself said he probably wasn't the best guy to face Alvarez one more time.

I was not going to face Alvarez in the ninth. Iím not sure if you know my numbers against him, but theyíre not good.
92-93 - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#429839) #
The other factor was Romano having thrown only 6 pitches in the 4 days prior. All things considered, the pull made sense. It's a shame the Jays offense couldn't give a little more leeway with which to manage.

Tremendous efforts from Gausman and Bassitt to restore the bullpen and split the series at a minimum after Manoah's 1st inning departure. Everybody but Romano and Richards could use some work tonight.

I don't quite understand why Jansen needs a rehab assignment. Expectations for Heineman are extremely low anyway, I would just work Jansen back into form at the MLB level.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#429843) #
If Jansen was in Florida, he could work with Manoah on a focused basis and that might help with the time clock issues.  I felt that Manoah could benefit from releasing himself from the pitch-calling; it's possible that he could learn to trust Jansen. 
jgadfly - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#429847) #
Adaqm Hadwin ... I noticed that Adam Hadwin threw out the ceremonial first pitch last night. I wish that he could sit down with Vladdy and explain to him the concept of "smash factor" in golf (IE: swinging 'hard' does not necessarily mean longer distance) Perhaps, somehow that might help.
hypobole - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#429848) #
Jays face Framber Valdez tonight, Sonny Gray tomorrow. They are #4/5 WAR at FG, 4/8 WAR at Bref.

7 over .500 for the 1st time since Danny smacked the 3 run walk off back on May 17th.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#429863) #
That didnít look good for Kiermaierís wrist or forearm.
Cracka - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#429864) #
X-rays negative!
Nigel - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#429866) #
What is Garcia doing up? Garcia canít be the choice late in a one run game against the Astros.
Nigel - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#429867) #
Itís not complicated how to get Varsho out:(
Nigel - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#429868) #
Poor managing. Thankfully the Astros ran themselves out of an inning.
Chuck - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#429869) #
Moronic baserunning by Abreu. Fits with his season as a whole.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#429870) #
Espinal did a really nice job there.  He snuck in and gave Kirk the idea to throw to second when that was not the play called.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#429871) #
Iassogna has completely lost the strike zone.
Nigel - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#429872) #
Agreed Mike. A couple of heads up plays on the Jays end of things. Kirk has had a big series.
Gerry - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#429873) #
Svanson takes care of the top of the order. Romano gets to handle the middle.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#429875) #
What a great win! Feels good to be on the other side in the one header play department. Great play by Kirk
Kasi - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#429876) #
Disagree on moronic managing. They ca t just run out the same 4-5 relievers all the time. Yes Garcia has sucked this year but when he is on he is a good pitcher and getting him figured out is important. Also add in that weíre going to have a bullpen day every five days now getting the full one going is important.
Kasi - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#429877) #
Oops my apologies I misread the two lines. I disagree on bad managing I do agree on moronic baserunning.
John Northey - Thursday, June 08 2023 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#429880) #
Very few teams, if any, have more than 4-5 relievers they feel safe giving a 1 run lead to. Right now the Jays have Romano, Swanson, Mayza, and Garcia who they feel safe using. I personally get nervous with Garcia but he has 7 holds vs 2 blown so not terrible.
  • Richards is close right now (trusted once with a 1 run lead, left after getting 2 out with 2 on base, twice trusted ahead by 2).
  • Pearson is very close to being a trusted one - 3 times used down 1, 2 times ahead by 2, once in a tie) but blew the last lead he was handed.
  • Cimber was trusted early on, and is starting to be again. Given a 2 run lead recently which he held for an inning, but sucked early on in 1 run and tied situations
  • Bass is the least trusted, with good reason. 3 times all year he was trusted in a down 1 situation, the smallest lead he was trusted with was up 3 (got 2 outs, allowed 2 runs) and hasn't been used in a game where the Jays had the lead since May 6th (6 run lead). I don't get why the Jays still have him around with the off field issues plus the 100% no trust the manager has in him.
  • Pop was somewhat trusted - 3 times used in a tie, twice ahead by 2, he had a lot of issues before going on the IL though
  • Jackson only came into 4 games, ahead by 6, down 1, then twice down 6. I'd rather him than Bass right now.
For Saves-Holds-Blown you get (Inherited runners-scored)...
Romano: 17-1-3 (7-2)
Swanson: 1-15-1 (12-3)
Mayza: 1-5-1 (24-6)
Garcia: 0-7-2 (9-0)
Pearson: 0-1-1 (6-1)
Cimber: 1-1-0 (9-5)
Richards: 0-3-0 (6-0)
Bass: 0-1-0 (8-0)
Pop: 0-1-0 * (11-3) - came in with a lead, but the starter didn't go 5 so not a blown save technically.
Hatch & Jackson (2-0) - no saves, holds, or blown saves.

Mayza gets a bonus for coming in with 24 men on base and letting 6 score, 25%, which is a decent number (tied for 13th best in the AL). Garcia, Richards, and Bass all being perfect at not allowing inherited runners to score is quite surprising.

So, by the measures of end results I like the Jays pen, especially given Pop is coming back at some point, and Green will join as soon as he is healthy (now throwing in Florida I heard on the radio). White might return, but will there be a spot for him?
ISLAND BOY - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 03:01 AM EDT (#429882) #
That was a big for a game in June. As mentioned on the broadcast, the winner of this game would be the winner of the season series and any ties in the standings at the end of the season for wild card positions will be decided by this, not one game playoffs.
scottt - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 06:06 AM EDT (#429885) #
Francis was up to 75 pitches, so they are going to need guys who can throw 2 innings: Pearson, Richards, Cimber. Kikuchi averages  5 innings per game also.
John Northey - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#429901) #
Yep, tiebreaker 1 to the Jays. How are they doing vs others possible cases?
  • Yankees: 3-4 with 6 games to go all in September
  • Orioles: 0-3 with 10 games to go, June 13th next game
  • Tampa: 3-4 with 6 games to go all in September
  • Texas: no games yet, 7 games to go, next on June 16
So the Jays have the tiebreaker vs Houston, not in good shape vs the O's, slightly behind vs Yankees and Rays. Technically the Angels (2-1), Twins (2-1), Guardians (no games until August), and Mariners (2-1) all could be in the battle but it is unlikely right now. 6 games against the non-AL East teams mostly means a tie in the first tie breaker is possible. The next tie breaker is intradivision record. Vs the AL East the Jays are 6-15 so far so that would suck.

Still good to get that first contender off the list with a winning record vs them. Ideally the Jays stay warm or get really hot and pull away so a playoff slot becomes a lock. Once in anything can happen (as we saw last year).
hypobole - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#429904) #
A couple of items from last nights game I didn't see mentioned.

The Kirk double was well struck, but should have easily been an out if the CF hadn't botched the catch. Got me thinking that I can't remember the last time one of our OF's had such a bad misplay. Used to be a semi-regular occurrence in years past.

Haven't been overly kind to Vlad this year, but getting that horrible toss from Swanson and turning it into an out was a really smart athletic play.
Mike Green - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#429915) #
Fair points. The outfield defence has indeed been excellent. Chapman and Bichette have been better than last year too. The catchers haven't been getting the calls though. I can't see a difference in their framing, but what do I know?
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