Kirk is going to be getting a lot of playing time behind the plate, so against a LHP it makes sense to use Heineman at C with Kirk at DH and have only one lefty in the lineup in CF.

It would be nice if the Jays offence showed up today so they can avoid using Romano and Hicks for the 3rd time in 4 games. Garcia, Green, and Cabrera are in the same boat, while Richards and Mayza are probably down today. Basically only Jackson and Francis are fresh, so they really need a strong outing from Berrios and/or the bats.

Oakland in the daytime is usually favorable for home runs. Berrios is vulnerable to the longball but he's got to throw strikes to minimize risk of the three-run shot. It's generally true, but with more force in these circumstances.

Does waldichuk have reverse splits or something? Because we've stacked the lineup with lefties today for some reason.

Looks that way.

Last Thursday was an off day and so is next Thursday.
Also, only Jackson and Francis threw on Wednesday and Tuesday.
There should be no reason to rest relievers unless they are ailing.
This is go time.

Romano threw 12 pitches yesterday and 5 on Friday.
Hicks threw 10 pitches yesterday and 12 on Friday.
Garcia should be available--as long as he doesn't come out with runners in scoring position throwing nothing but sliders off the plate.
Same with Cabrera who shouldn't need 2 days off after throwing 18 pitches.
Francis should be able to throw 3  innings against those guys.

That only leaves Mayza and Richards as off for today.

Wow, four lefties in the lineup with Biggio at 3B. The Jays analytics department must know more than Waldichuk’s splits, which are standard, let on.

Correct. Waldichuk in 2022-2023 has allowed RHBs to hit .282/.367/.503 and LHBs have not hit as well. It's bizarre to sit Schneider. Whatever.

Looks like he has been worse against lefties but in a substantially smaller sample size. So playing some lefties seems fine and maybe gives them more flexibility for pinch hitting later on. I don’t agree with sitting our hottest hitter though.

Medina is starting not Waldichuk. Schneider should still be playing, but not a big deal anymore.

I assume the FO also considered Waldichuk’s career splits and 2023 splits.

Sure but still not sure where Mike got his stats from.

LHP: .264/.382/.550
RHP: .284/.372/.490

Definitely better against RHP although the LHP numbers are driven by a smaller sample size. Medina is also worse against LHB so it seems playing some lefties is fine either way.

Ahh career vs this year. Well when career is just two years I can see going with this years numbers.

Nope. Not when you are talking about very small samples. I hope that the analytics people understand this- sometimes I wonder, but let's assume they do.

Prediction: as Vlad goes so does this team for this series.

I wonder if the stats for the media people sometimes get into the wrong hands. I got a copy once - friend of thr family got it at a game - ther are some VERY small sample sizes in those.

There is so little ambient noise that it sounds like the broadcast is being done in a studio.

Geldof may not have liked Mondays but Gelof seems to.

good thing these jays are too good to play the hottest hitter in baseball.

It has the atmosphere of a library.

Do they have a designated person who shushes the crowd?  Smith LB is what appears in the boxscore.

Who's hurt pitcher or batter

A Noda-oubter home run? Ah? Ah?

Big pickoff there. Berrios truly is an excellent fielding pitcher, and it’s been on display in this one.

didn't love that we didn't see any pinch hitting when the brought in their lefty reliever. 3-0 lead isn't enough to sit on.

John Schneider is going to have more questions about decision-making- sticking with the left-handed hitters, taking out Berrios with a tired bullpen. 

a late inning loss with a tired AAAA reliever on the mound (who's been beat up lately) and the hottest hitter in MLB stuck on the bench would be fairly annoying.

Taking Berrios out after 6 with such a low pitch count only to use the lower leverage relievers (or in Garcia's case the relievers who should be used in lower leverage) in a 1 run and now tie game is ridiculous. On top of that, we have not seen Davis Schneider used yet, and he's been the hottest hitter in baseball, never mind on the team itself. Just baffling.

Horwitz looks solid at first base. Moves well and sure-handed. 

Taking the starters out early is not ridiculous.

They’ve pitched the 5th most innings in baseball. We’ve seen decreased performance lately from what we saw earlier. And we have one of the best bullpens in baseball

Do we have publicly available stats on 0-2 counts? I feel like Kirk gets into them a lot. Would be curious if this year has even more frequent than past/ league average.

Seems a shame to bring schneider in with 2 outs & nobody on in 9th.

especially since he was pinch hit for another hot hitting kid.

wouldn't want to maybe pinch hit for varsho or anything.

In the beginning, Genesis was outstanding for the Jays. He’s been less reliable of late.

Baseball Ref has splits for result ON and AFTER each count:

Kirk's splits

Interesting decision to go with Romano with a runner on first. Would Cabrera have been able to prevent Ruiz’s steal of second base?

don't mind the decision to go with romano because i'd friggen hate to lose because we pulled our SP early just so we could use our worst relievers.

Thanks James. I'll look later but he hasn't been great this year 0-2

but burning 4 relievers (at least) in an already tired bullpen when your starter was on 84 pitches with 2 runs allowed, and had already just got through the toughest part of the order, is just another unforced error.

let's just hope Romano has enough gas to close out one more inning.

I am not sure if a manager has ever been fired in the middle of a game but I wouldn’t be opposed to it here.

he hasn't been great this year 0-2

As a general rule, expect everyone to be terrible on 0-2. The MLB average is .167/.200/.261

interesting question would be whether he's been getting into more 0-2 counts this year.

might be an adjustment pitchers have made to his patient approach.

Pitching change so I can contemplate the odds of Vladdy hitting into a dp

vladdy's had a hit in like 14 of his last 15gms and been on base 7 times in the last 2 games, with a hr in there.

John Schneider's putting this game on his resume.

how many runs do we need to add in order not to bring Romano back for the bottom of the inning?

Nice to still have the LHP (Biggio, Horwitz) in the lineup in the 10th.

seattle loses. could be within 1.5 of the whole West if we can hold on.

John Schneider shouldn't put this one on his resume too hastily.  The bullpen move might not cost them tomorrow. 

Biggio with two hits off lefties and a good defensive play at third base.  It's nice to see, but not a high percentage bet. 

uh oh.

this is where i mention that this is Romano's 3rd outing in 4 nights.

interesting question would be whether [Kirk's] been getting into more 0-2 counts this year. might be an adjustment pitchers have made to his patient approach.

They are up a little. He's seen 72 0-2 counts in 340 PApps (about 21%) - last year, it was 102 in 541 PApps (18.8%)

phew. another gargantuan tight battle against another great powerhouse team.

3 of these teams make it:

SEA +1.5
HOU +1.5
TEX +0.5
TOR ----
BOS -4.0
NYY -7.5

phew. another gargantuan tight battle against another great powerhouse team. No pictures on the scorecard! But seriously, beggars can’t be choosers at this point. As long as they get the W, and no one dies, I think we need to take it and be happy.

Totally. And remember the Jays are currently without Bo, Chapman, Belt, and Swanson. The team is far from being at full strength.

And Jansen. 

True, true and true.

I think Houston will be fine given their easier schedule but it’s hard to see one of Texas or Seattle not struggling down the stretch. For one they play each other seven out of last ten games and even other than that both don’t have easy schedules.

Feels like there is a good chance Horwitz will be the 1B/DH (Belt role) next year.

It looks to me like Horowitz is a considerably better defensive first baseman than Vladdy already.  The org theorized that keeping Vladdy on the field would help with his conditioning; that theory has not passed the evidence test so far. 

Don't think there's anything Schneider or Horwitz could do this year to convince me we as a contender should be handing either of them a starting spot next year tbh.

Of course not. If the club signs a better player, they should.

But at this point, Schneider projects as a 3 WAR player at second base, and noticeably better than Merrifield. You'd be hard pressed to find a better option. That projection (ZiPS projects him at 113 wRC+) might fall in the coming weeks, but it's mostly based on the performance in Buffalo with a modest adjustment to reflect the white-hot start to his major league career.

Horwitz + platoon bat (against LHP) could be a cheap and effective 1B/DH option, freeing up cash to spend on other positions.

It might also be a more durable option than, say, Belt or Brantley or other player with injury issues.

But the Jays would need Vladdy to rebound somewhat next year for the Vladdy / Horwitz / platoon bat arrangement to really work out.

<br>might be an adjustment pitchers have made to his patient approach.

What I was thinking too. Plus all the distractions. I'm not sure he's really had to make a big adjustment yet in his career? A big finish might be somewhat encouraging in that context

Excellent result for a day game following a day game with 2000 kilometres in between.

Did anyone notice that the dugouts in Oakland have no fences or any protection whatsoever? It seems weird to see the players/coaches standing and sitting so close to the plate where a hard hit foul ball could cause injury. The Jays, in particular, are lucky Bichette isn't playing because he's prone to sending foul balls sideways.

"The Jays, in particular, are lucky Bichette isn't playing because he's prone to sending foul balls sideways."

Well, I guess if there's a silver lining to Bichette's injury...

What a terribly managed game by a manager already on thin ice. I don't miss Montoyo but he wasn't worse than this manager.

The real question is, where's Bowden Francis?

I have indeed seen a game in Oakland (it was back in 2009 and the day we traded Scott Rolen for Edwin). It was a funny experience: the place was probably almost as depleted of fans as todays game, but even so I when I went to the washroom with my Jays hat on, a fella (somewhat friendily) commented “you’re a long way from home, pal.”

Perhaps I’m biased, I have some family in the east Bay Area. Honestly… the issue aren’t Oakland A’s fans. The stadium legit is just awful, awful, awful. It’s a terrible part of town that’s close to nothing (aside from a BART stop), and the park itself is by far the worst MLB stadium I’ve ever been to. Olympic Stadium is quaint, atmospheric and fun by comparison.

The excessive foul territory ruins almost any view…. When I went, My uncle in law and I snuck down to the bottom level first baseline (again, empty stadium every few staff cares) and even five rows back from the field you feel like the action is across a lake.

Where's Alek Manoah?

I just saw that the Bisons have placed Manoah on the temporarily inactive list. I am not sure what the reasons for that are but it suggests we wont see Manoah pitching for the Bisons soon.

Don't blame the A's fans for the empty ballpark, blame the ownership for basically copying the plot of Major League to justify the desire to move to Vegas. There were 37,553 at the top home series, and was able to generally be around 30K at reverse boycott days.

A's stadium isn't super great in structure/location but you can take public transit to it, and it has always been a cheap place to go where even the good tickets are pretty cheap.

For those complaining about Schneider, I read an article about Craig Counsel whose contract with the Brewers is expiring after this season. He's gotten the Brewers in the payoffs nearly every year he's been there, and finished second in voting 3 times for NL Manager of the Year.

What the Jays need -- a successful, experienced manager at the major league level.

I'd take him in a second as manager.

They have a lot of apparently decent young players at Buffalo now if you add Barger, Jimenez, Martinez, Lopez.
The option is probably not to sign a better player but to trade those guys, probably 2 or 3 for one to get someone with a couple years of control left. There would probably be takers, but I don't know if the players coming back would be any better. Generally, to get top talent you have to send some pitchers as well.

Clement is hitting over .400 with an OPS over 1.
That's clearly not his real baseline, but it does replace Bichette nicely.
The new guys also seem to have breathed new life into Biggio and Espinal.
If you bring in an established player, the bench guys know they won't get playing time whereas if you bring younger guys, they see themselves competing for it.

Houston lost Ryne Stanek yesterday. That could hurt.

Manoah could be having issues about the pitch that hit a player in the face. This may take a while to fix. Then he has to get into game condition. There is about 1 month for him to get it done.

A few words about Ernie Clement. It's obvious that he has medium range pop now. What is not so obvious is his exceptional bat-to-ball skills. His K rate in triple A was 4.9%. So far in the major leagues it is under 10%. And he has the ability to hit line drives everywhere.

He hasn't faced good pitching yet, but he looks to me like a .300 hitter right now. I can't think of a player who did that at his age. If he can, you'd have to tip your hat to him and to Matt Hague.

Despite the errors a couple of days ago, he looks to me like a solid shortstop also.

We will see if I am right but it would be extremely unusual if so. A solid, .300 hitting shortstop with medium range pop emerging at age 27.

More statistics on Clement. His swinging strike rate in triple A was a very low 5.2 and in the major leagues so far, it is 4.5%. He has not yet swung and missed at a pitch in the zone.

Michael Young was a weak hitting second baseman through his age 25 season. Starting showing signs of life at age 26 and became a star shortstop at 27. Not very similar, of course, as he was doing all this in the MLB and with a strong prospect pedigree.

What about Scutaro, Mike? He didn’t get a taste until he was 26. Didn’t have a full season until he was 28

You're correct fairly often, Mike. Don't be so hard on yourself.

Manoah has been taking pictures with fans in Buffalo, so he's with the Bisons. The silence on his situation is deafening.

You do wonder what would have happened it they just called up Clement instead of grabbing dejong.

Thanks, 92-93.

Scutaro and Young are both interesting. Scutaro had hit .311/.379/.465 at double A and triple A at age 22, but took steps backward after that unil age 28 (injury issues?). Both Scutaro and Young had medium range pop in the minors in their early 20s. Clement did not.

Johnny Bower didn't become an established NHL goalie until he was 33 and went on to play 11 seasons at a high level. Oh, wait, wrong sport.

Just a note on Biggio - he has a higher career OBP (.355) vs. LHP than RHP, and he handled lefties just fine when he had regular playing time. Yesterday he made a very smart play on a bad throw to 3B from Kirk attempting to stop a steal - he faked that the ball had gone into the OF, trying to induce the runner to head home. His solid defensive play at 3B in the bottom of the 8th saved the game - it was a decent throw from a guy with a weak arm.

Just saw a Tweet from Ben N-S, apparently Buffalo placed Manoah on the inactive list yesterday. From the Tweet:

Per MiLB, "If a Minor League player is away from a team for a few days because of a personal matter, travel to an All-Star game, etc., & is not placed on the IL, he is placed on the temporary inactive list"

This would suggest Manoah is not with the team, and perhaps, has not even reported. WTF is going on here? Concerning to say the least

Ben NS now says Manoah is still with the Bisons but not ready to pitch. This move allows the Bisons to fill his roster spot while he builds up his arm and is ready to pitch.

This suggests Manoah has not been throwing for the last few weeks.

BA has their best tools selections posted. Spencer Horwitz was voted best defensive first baseman. Cam Eden got best baserunner.

In AA Ricky T was voted best pitching prospect and best fastball.

The winners were determined by a vote of league managers.

This reinforces my view that Horwitz is a viable candidate for the 1B/DH role next year. May as well make Horowitz the primary first baseman (against RHP at least) and Vladdy the primary DH. This would be win-win: the Jays would get better infield defense and there would be less wear and tear on Vladdy (who has already had some knee issues).

Against LHP, the Jays could start Vladdy at 1B and use one of Schneider, Jansen, Kirk, or someone else as the DH (with Horwitz available to PH later in the game if needed).

Thanks Gerry.

Just in case of future injuries we need depth obviously. Horwitz would cover for a Vlad injury. At some point Eden (longshot favorite of mine) becomes a 4th/5th OF. I wonder if he can become a K Pillar.

"We will see if I am right but it would be extremely unusual if so. A solid, .300 hitting shortstop with medium range pop emerging at age 27."

If it helps, recall that 2020 was a total write off for him, due to the pandemic. And he, along with some others who can control the strike zone, may be benefiting from the robo-umps in the minors.

I was thinking about Vladdy, and cast my mind back to George Scott who I remember being about the same size (he wasn't as heavy much of the time, in fact). Here's a nice summary from SABR.   I had forgotten how good he was defensively and was a little young at the time to know the details of his battles with Dick Williams over his weight. 

1B defense is always a tough thing to grade until it actually happens, but that's a very nice bonus if Horwitz turns out to be legit plus there. Would give him a solid Overbay type feel.

"This reinforces my view that Horwitz is a viable candidate for the 1B/DH role next year. May as well make Horowitz the primary first baseman (against RHP at least) and Vladdy the primary DH. This would be win-win: the Jays would get better infield defense and there would be less wear and tear on Vladdy (who has already had some knee issues)."

If this is true, then maybe the Jays should be looking to trade Vlad.

He is very lovable, but his lack of discipline on all fronts has to be a concern. He still has a chance to improve his numbers by making better decisions, and by working harder on his defence, but will he do it? Thats the $14.5 million question (or whatever he will make next year). Thats too much money for the weak side of a platoon/ DH with average numbers.

If I am Atkins, I bring in a respected Latin ex-player as a bench coach (someone like Mattingly is to Bo) to try and unlock him. I think you have to give him start at least 140 games next year, and keep him in the field at least half of them. Being mostly DH is too hard on y9ou9ng players.

Horwitz can fight for the Belt role next season, although more games in the field.

We have to remember the sample sizes for Schneider, Clement and Horwitz are pretty small. There are a ton of guys who were one year wonders in the minors who had a magical season and then turned back into pumpkins. They should all be in the mix next year, but dont count on them all hitting .300. Some will regress as did Kirk, Biggio and Espinal (although all those guys have a chance still).

Overbay didn't get any significant major league time until age 26.  He was a good defender but not a great one and his pop in the minors was comparable to Horwitz, bearing in mind the differences between the Texas League and the PCL from the EL and IL.  Overbay was essentially an average player, but you need those too. 

Scutaro was another success story from the Gaston/Tenace/Murphy hitting instructor era. He became a solid piece of a championship Giants teams.

It certainly sounds like Manoah could be / should be on the IL and not on an active roster. It appears like the front office is sending a message or maybe even punishing him - if he were on the IL, he'd get his MLB pay cheque and accrue service time, but in AAA he's only earning a fraction of that... and right now, he's not getting paid at all while inactive.

Wow, I was thinking of Dick Williams when Manoah's issues came up earlier in the thread .

When I was a kid, I got a subscription to SPORT magazine. One story I've remember involved Steve Rogers and his family bumping into Williams at the airport as they were about to go on vacation. Rogers was injured when the season ended. Williams asked how the injury was progressing. Rogers gave a bit of a wishy-washy answer along the lines of "it's coming along".

Williams in front of Rogers family said "Well if you can't pitch, we'll find somebody who will". Pretty cold, but that's baseball. If Manoah can't pitch, someone else will. No point worrying about it.

That's beyond cold, hypobole. In front of his kids while they are going on holiday? "Acting like a jerk" would be polite.

Williams did have that reputation, and with second basemen in particular he was legendary.

Schneider hasn't played much OF at all yet, which is weird given it sure seems like he's got clear deficiencies in the details part of IF defense, with both glovework around the bag and positioning.

anyways, it'll be interesting to see which slots the new AAA callups will be most likely to be needed in going forward.


recent trends (asterisk means likely injury related issues):

Last 14 days:

* SS Bichette*: 25pa, 14wrc+
* DH Belt: 33pa, 151wrc+
* 1B Guerrero: 62pa, 138wrc+
* RF Springer: 60pa, 129wrc+
* 3B Chapman*: 21pa, 85wrc+
* 2B Merrifield: 57pa, 33wrc+
* LF Varsho: 54pa, 73wrc+
* C Jansen: 28pa, 212wrc+
* CF Kiermaier: 31pa, 108wrc+

* IF Espinal: 19pa, 181wrc+
* C Kirk: 28pa, 153wrc+
* UT Biggio: 25pa, 67wrc+

* UT Schneider: 37pa, 294wrc+
* IF Clement: 26pa, 188wrc+
* 1B Horwitz: 11pa, 212wrc+
* C Heineman: 2pa, -100wrc+


Last 30 days:

* SS Bichette*: 35pa, 65wrc+
* DH Belt: 79pa, 164wrc+
* 1B Guerrero: 112pa, 124wrc+
* RF Springer: 108pa, 135wrc+
* 3B Chapman*: 60pa, 35wrc+
* 2B Merrifield: 114pa, 66wrc+
* LF Varsho: 97pa, 111wrc+
* C Jansen: 53pa, 149wrc+
* CF Kiermaier: 43pa, 105wrc+

* UT Biggio: 71pa, 102wrc+
* IF Espinal: 48pa, 98wrc+
* C Kirk: 63pa, 82wrc+

* UT Schneider: 64pa, 243wrc+
* IF Clement: 26pa, 188wrc+
* 1B Horwitz: 11pa, 286wrc+
* OF Lukes: 5pa, 100wrc+
* C Heineman: 2pa, -100wrc+



2nd Half

* SS Bichette*: 104pa, 118wrc+
* DH Belt: 147pa, 156wrc+
* 1B Guerrero: 205pa, 116wrc+
* CF Springer: 199pa, 99wrc+
* 3B Chapman*: 151pa, 92wrc+
* 2B Merrifield: 202pa, 100wrc+
* LF Varsho: 163pa, 94wrc+
* C Jansen: 106pa, 141wrc+
* CF Kiermaier: 97pa, 106wrc+

* C Kirk: 118pa, 125wrc+
* UT Biggio: 90pa, 117wrc+
* IF Espinal: 84pa, 84wrc+

* UT Schneider: 73pa, 258wrc+
* IF Clement: 27pa, 209wrc+
* 1B Horwitz: 11pa, 286wrc+
* OF Lukes: 6pa, 64wrc+
* C Heineman: 2pa, -100wrc+



Merrifield seems to be continuing his downward trend. He might be the first starter to sit at this point.

Varsho had a nice rebound there for a while but has started slumping again.

Kiermaier has just kept on being steadily solid even through injuries. Can't see any reason to take him out.


If recent trends continue, Schneider in LF and Clement at 2B could well be our best options when we're healthy. But let's see if they can keep it up for now.

"If this is true, then maybe the Jays should be looking to trade Vlad."

This is actually the scenario where our FO's stock trading approach will likely do the exact opposite - and I'll agree with it wholeheartedly this time.

Now would be the perfect time to give Vladdy a big fat extension, and the worst time to try and trade him. He's still a good hitter and all the underlyings say he should be hitting much better than this.

"If I am Atkins, I bring in a respected Latin ex-player as a bench coach (someone like Mattingly is to Bo) to try and unlock him"

When does the babying stop?

If this FO had the balls to trade Vlad instead of Teoscar in the offseason then this team would be well into a playoff spot right now.

Chapman's injury came just in time to possibly save the season:) I say that mostly as a joke but he's been poor to bad from May 1 on and the replacements have been crazy good.

I think Schneider has the potential to be the super utility player that the Jays have tried to turn others into for a while now. I really don't think you want him playing a full time defensive position on the infield but he's shown that he can play there if needed. You could make a Schneider/Biggio super utility job share a pretty interesting full time player next year.

Ugly I agree with you. If they sign him long term no issues from me so long as he isn't supposed to be their top dog...their Acuna or Julio Rodriguez. If he's signed long term as the 2nd 3rd or 4th best hitter on the team then fine.

"A big fat extension". Nice choice if words, UO.

Don't agree about Schneider's defensive ability and potential. The only thing I have seen that needs significant work is his positioning on tag plays. I have every confidence he can improve at that. It sure would be nice if they had someone with the ability of Brian Butterfield to help.

I see the Jays saying 'goodbye' to Belt this winter and using Horwitz as the LH DH for 2024 - right now is his audition for that to happen and he is passing with flying colors so far. Clement is fighting for the Espinal slot (backup IF who cover SS) - clearly the Jays have little confidence in Espinal given his not taking over at SS when Bo was hurt (either time), the negative is Clement has 312 PA pre-2023 and hit just 204/261/264 during that time with Cleveland/Oakland, on the other hand, lifetime in AAA he has hit 305/358/483 and minors overall 285/340/392. He isn't arbitration eligible until after 2024 at the earliest (1 year 87 days of service time pre-2023) vs Espinal making $2.1 mil this year and more via arbitration this winter (always goes up each year) despite his 75 OPS+ this year (96 lifetime thanks to 21/22 when he hit well, 104 OPS+).

Basically this winter the Jays can shave around $20 million off the payroll easily by dumping Espinal, Belt, and Kiermaier and replacing them with Clement, Horwitz, and Lukes. Schneider for Chapman is around $12 mil more saved. Ryu leaving is $20 mil (replaced by Manoah). So roughly $52 mil can be saved by using pre-arb kids who have easily produced as well as the guys they'd replace. It'd be a big risk though as if some of those kids flop (and some would unless the Jays get very lucky) it'd be hard to replace mid-season. This winter will be a fun challenge for the front office - do they spend a lot on someone (trade or free agent) to fill a slot or do they trust the kids? Of course you also have to factor in Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and others who could fill those slots too. Otto Lopez is another not bad choice for backup IF. I expect them to keep Biggio as he is a managers favorite (in the hope of robo umps too I suspect - with those his OBP would probably jump).

"If this FO had the balls to trade Vlad instead of Teoscar in the offseason then this team would be well into a playoff spot right now."

wat.

Schneider has looked fine at 2B but he hasn't really had any difficult plays, and we still haven't seen how he is on the pivot.

It certainly sounds like Manoah could be / should be on the IL and not on an active roster. It appears like the front office is sending a message or maybe even punishing him - if he were on the IL, he'd get his MLB pay cheque and accrue service time, but in AAA he's only earning a fraction of that... and right now, he's not getting paid at all while inactive.

I’m not so sure it’s punishment. Someone had mentioned mental health as a possibility. I wonder about a newly discovered medical issue or illness. Hard to understand the time away, during the club’s stretch run, without explaining unless it’s something serious and personal. I hope he’s ok

Chapman's injury came just in time to possibly save the season:) I say that mostly as a joke but he's been poor to bad from May 1 on and the replacements have been crazy good.

Chapman had a 908 OPS in July, according to baseball reference. His OPS+ for the month was 146.

I saw a pivot, and it was fine. He wasn't going to make anyone forget Bill Mazeroski, but his footwork and body positioning were OK.

Sure-handed. Accurate arm and strong enough for second base, and comfortable throwing from a number of angles. Moves well with a reasonably quick first step.

It has only been the tagging which sticks out like a sore thumb.

tagging and i know there's been a couple times where it seems like he didn't get in the proper position to receive a throw from the OF.

I also have some questions about his range.

The numbers for his range so far are good. SSS, of course. But for me, it fits with the observation. He probably won't make the spectacular play, but he will get to all the balls you should get to and generally handle them well.

I haven't seen any relay issues, but what with the announcing being so annoying and the mute button in regular use, I easily could have missed it.

I think range would ultimately be Schneider's undoing at 2B and arm strength and accuracy would be his undoing at 3B. I'd expect him to be below average at both, although potentially only marginally so at 2B. He might be able to outhit his defence at 2B though.

Players Under Control Next Year:

* CF Varsho
* RF Springer
* LF Schneider
* 3B Biggio
* SS Bichette
* 2B Clement
* 1B Guerrero
* DH Horwitz
* C Jansen

* C Kirk
* IF Espinal
* OF Lukes
* UT Orelvis/Barger

When does the babying stop?


Not everyone responds to the same treatment. The question is, has there ever been babying?

When does the babying stop?


Not everyone responds to the same treatment. The question is, has there ever been babying?

Just add Bellinger and an SP and you're good to go.

Both DRS and OAA have Schneider as a plus defender at 2nd so far.

I'd be leery about giving Vlad any extension because I see myself in him some ways. Some posters here know I don't take things as seriously as a lot of others do. And there are people who have a commitment to excellence, which is rather important for athletes. I don't. My motto in life is "Good Enough". I would not give myself an extension.

But you (nor I) would have been anticipating being called to the Show by age 20, nor would we be expecting to be paid like the very best on free agency. It would bug me to be a good player and expect to be paid like a great one.

Bellinger, having the 2nd best year of his career after 3 years in a ditch, would be the opposite - the classic Buy-High scenario.

Two years in a ditch because of a serious injury.

But ya, I'd be all over a Guerrero extension that pays him for the player he's been the last couple of seasons.

If you can extend Vlad to a modest contract in length (meaning 5-6 years), then absolutely do it this winter. Even if the AAV is on the higher end to balance out the lower term, the length is perfect given his age, and would allow him to reach the FA market at around 30 where he could still cash in. I doubt Vlad would do it, though. No chance I'd offer a 10+ year deal. I would have after last season but he's been so bad this year that there's no upside for the Jays to do it.

It's not the right time to trade him, IMO. You can't go into 2024 looking at him as a superstar piece anymore, but he still has that potential (complete with great underlying numbers), so there's far more upside in trying to unlock that potential over the next two years rather than trading him for what will likely amount to 50 cents on the dollar.

If Vlad goes on a spree in September and ends up with 30 homers and 100 RBI, you might get value for him in a trade despite the poor defence and baserunning. I'd do it, but risk-averse management would not.

Can't trade Vlad unless some team actually wants him.

They'll all line up.

"They'll all line up."

Depends on the cost. If you trade Vladdy as the player he's been last couple of years, would be very easy to get a deal because cost wouldn't be very high. If you treat him like the elite player from a couple of years ago, I doubt anyone would bite and if they did, I'd take that sort of deal in a second.

So if you sign Vlad to a 10 year deal, how much are you thinking based on the past 2 years? $200M $250M? $300M? At the start of the season people were thinking closer to $350M-$400M. Vlad makes 14.5M this season and the expectation was he'd go to about 20M then 25M in arbitration before hitting free agency. If you said it had to be a 10 year deal, what price range would you say is a steal/good deal for the Jays, what is a fair range, and at what do you think is a way overpay?

"The question is, has there ever been babying?"

It's debatable but:

His minor league manager was brought in to manage him at the major league level.

He's never been dropped in the order like Springer or Bo

He forced the Jays to play him at 3B when he was first called up

I personally think he forces the Jays to play him every day so he can get 700+ ABs

He doesn't hustle and still receives MVP/ Star treatment

Devers received 313.5/10.

Based on that I would suggest that 25 million or more per year is an overpay.

20 million/year for 10 years is fair because he wont age well.

20 million/year for 5 years is an underpay.

I'd offer him 20/10 or 28/5.


He will laugh and bet on himself to try to beat Devers contract or at least go 35 million/year on a 1, 2 or 3 year deal somewhere.

"...and still receives MVP/ Star treatment"

How so?

Vlad should get a good wake up call when they talk salary this winter. They Jays will point out he was average at best. All he will be able to say is that he won the Home Run Derby.

I every much want the Jays to try and tune him in, which was why I suggested the bench coach. Its not someone to protect him ("babying"), its someone to lean on him and can say they kind of things that need to be said. Like lose some weight, dont try and swing out of your shoes all the time, pick good pitches to hit and make better decisions defensively and on the bases.

If a guy like Miguel Cabrera is in his ear, you can bet he will be listening a lot more than than he would to the guy from Geek Squad and his ipad.

"If a guy like Miguel Cabrera is in his ear, you can bet he will be listening a lot more than than he would to the guy from Geek Squad and his ipad."

Huh, I figured someone from Vlad's generation would be pretty receptive to whatever the 'guy from the Geek Squad and his ipad" had to say, considering he would have been exposed to that from early on in his career. I mean, it's not like he's from Jack Morris' cohort...

He will likely also be able to say that he led the team in HR and RBI, which still plays well in arbitration. And it matters to players and managers, though not to WAR-obsessed fans.

"Huh, I figured someone from Vlad's generation would be pretty receptive to whatever the 'guy from the Geek Squad and his ipad" had to say, considering he would have been exposed to that from early on in his career. I mean, it's not like he's from Jack Morris' cohort..."

The reality is that we dont know. But Joe from Geek squad sure didnt help him this year :)

I tend to agree with Eephus regarding Vlad. I don’t think the front office will offer him a huge contract this off-season. I doubt they will trade him. I think they’ll wait one more year to decide what to do.

Devers signed his contract with one year remaining before free agency.

"He will likely also be able to say that he led the team in HR and RBI, which still plays well in arbitration. And it matters to players and managers, though not to WAR-obsessed fans"

Neat trick you pulled here - somehow you dismissed the importance of HR/RBI for vladdy only....and then somehow mocked the fans who dismiss the importance HR/RBI in general at the very same time.

Well played!

There's no need for anyone to point out that Vlad is only 24...we all know the facts:

He is still supremely young

He had monster season in the past

He still has 3 - 6 years of potentially his best baseball ever in him

--------

Here are the new points to consider:

His numbers in major league parks is not great, just good

He is treated as a great player. Show me other teams with the same budget and expectations as Toronto who have someone with the same OPS or WAR batting clean up every day.

His defense is not good

Bo Bichette has emerged as the better player all around. For Pete's sake switch them in the order already.

ALSO: Victor Martinez is part of the FO now, presumably along with Don Mattingly to help with some of the young players.

It's worth remembering that almost a year ago, people were saying some similar things about Bo. Below-average defense, undisciplined hitter, substandard offensive performance, etc.

Yep

The Mets would trade for Vladimir and let him play 3rd base.

"It's worth remembering that almost a year ago, people were saying some similar things about Bo. Below-average defense, undisciplined hitter, substandard offensive performance, etc."

I was leading the charge on that. What happened? Management dropped him in the order and he rebounded to save his season.

I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps the team has addressed issues with Vlad such as lack of hustle and or dropping him in the order and he hasn't obliged which would be a huge problem if I was in charge. What would Kevin Cash have done this year with Vlad? He sat Franco (before allegations) for being a bad teammate. Probably would have sat Franco for not hustling.

It helped that the lineup was flaming hot lasr year and Bo was only the 7th or 8th best hitter when he waa dropped down.

Vladdy is the 2nd best hitter at the moment this year, and best health one.

Not I. I have been saying for a couple of years now that I would consider signing Bichette to a long-term contract, but not Guerrero Jr. For self-discipline reasons. I don't think Guerrero Jr. will age well, and I haven't thought so for some time. I anticipate that Bichette will age reasonably well.

Re batting clean up:
Yesterday Seattle has Canzone, Rays had Lowe, Guardians had Calhoun, Twins had Kepler, Padres had Machado, angels had Moustakas, Dodgers have Muncy, Yankees had Torres

With the exception of Machado, I think we would all agree Vlad is easily a better player than this entire list. So, to answer the original question, Lots of teams

I value R-HR-RBI a lot, and certainly was not being dismissive of them.

Biggio is in RF tonight. His versatility, which helps the team a lot, hurts his WAR. I don't penalize him in my evaluation because the manager puts him in the OF and Schneider at 2B.

92-93 made me realise a big reason Vlad won't get traded. How many FO's think RBI's are an important stat? Are there any left? But lots of fans do, the kind of fans that pay a lot of money to go to Jays games.

So Vlad will be overpaid, at least in the eyes of FO's for his current production in arbitration, because those type of stats and especially games played do play a large part. Any team trading for him is going to pay almost $20 million AAV for the next 2 years, even if he continues on his 1-2 WAR pace.

And what would the return be if traded? Almost assuredly a poo-poo platter. Especially so in the eyes of most paying Jays fans who still believe Vlad is elite. So by outraging those fans Jays may well take a financial hit in lost revenue, more of a hit than just riding out the next 2 years.

When you factor in double plays and baserunning, Guerrero Jr. hasn't been great for two years. But the lineup is thinner this year. I'd be inclined to have him leadoff and put the best base-stealer on the club in the 9th hole. And tell him to run...

RE Batting clean up...

It was in relation to Vlad being good not great as written in the same post.

Then there's also the point about narrowing the teams to one's with the same budget as Toronto (if they spent more money they would have a better player hitting in that spot).

Are the guys you listed playing every day all year long with 700 ABs? Cole Calhoun was just DFA'd a month ago...

What are the WAR and OPS of the guys batting clean up...

The numbers don't lie.

Vladdy comfortably leads the Jays in win-probability-added despite those double plays, while Chapman and Varsho, the WAR darlings, are 2 of the 3 worst (Kirk). And yes, I'm aware WPA doesn't factor in defense.

Another big HR from Teoscar, giving the Mariners the early 2-0 lead. The man is en fuego.

Agreed Mike. But also agree with the view that the team should think hard about trading him this off season. He still has that innate hitting ability which could emerge into a Bautista-like force.My wish is that management sees him for what he is and treats him accordingly. If he doesn’t develop the potential we all see, the team will have to adjust the roster as early as next year. Horwitz looks like part of the solution if Vlad plays at replacement level.

Like many others, I was concerned about Vladdy’s deteriorating plate discipline last year (I have no interest in an “I was right/wrong about Vlad!” contest—because really, who cares?). The plate discipline issues seem worse this year. Is that something he can turn around? I’m skeptical, simply because it’s hard for a major-leaguer to will himself to have better plate discipline. Remember when Pillar vowed to do this in spring training? But Vladdy is talented and relatively young. Maybe he can do it.

Vladdy has hit well in the clutch this year, but didn't do so well in 2021. The two seasons look fairly close by WPA. The stat is pretty much useless for position players. More useful for relievers actually.

But it's true about the casual fan. The marketing of Vladdy has been pretty much constant and the casual fan does not notice Vladdy's habit of not running when he clearly should. For me, that sets a terrible tone and I wouldn't want him around in even the medium term.

Teoscar was not like that at all. Mistakes yes, but good effort and a willingness to learn. Breaking up the Barrio in the way they did has not worked out in my view.

The impressive thing about Teo's performance in August and September is that he has close to zero walks in those months (4:32 BB:K ratio). He has a 5.1 BB% on the season, by far the lowest of his career. His wRC+ of 110 is well below the 130-142 wRC+ range he's posted over the last three years.

But he's indeed hitting up a storm in Aug/Sept and boosting Seattle's postseason hopes as a result.

All but Torres had lower OPS (his was ~20 points higher). I’m not going to spend any more time researching this. The point is it took me 2 minutes to find a list that demonstrates your point was extremely hyperbolic.

It's odd to read that Jays fans don't seem to know RBIs don't matter (they do they are just a stat that does take into account opportunities) and a bunch about the batting order mattering... the order of the lineup has a tiny effect on run expectation. I thought this was well known.

Vlad is better than we've seen but ai think we've seen enough to know he's not a generational talent like his father.

I think it’s too early to know, but the trend line isn’t great

99, you just showed players with lower OPS who have hit clean up sometimes. Sorry you had to research it but doesn't illustrate any player with 600+ ABs in a 3/4 spot with lower OPS or WAR than Vlad. That's the challenge and ask from my post. Even still if you found a player or two that fit the statistical window it doesn't change my point. Perhaps it is easier to simply point out that Ryan Noda of the Oakland As has been more valuable than Vlad for most of the season.

Vlad has actually improved his plate discipline significantly this year and in particular lately.

On the season he's posting the lowest K% of his career (14.6) and a bb% (9.2) second only to his big 2021 (12.3).

But he's bumped that up to even better levels since the break, with an 11.3bb% and 12.4k% in 209pa since then.


It's extremely promising stuff imo - if he can stay disciplined in that approach it's only a matter of time before the hitting shows up.

Guys like Vlad & Bo are supremely confident and I don't expect them to sign a "team friendly" deal even if their performance is not top tier - I wouldn't trade Vlad based on this disappointing season - best to ride out the next 2 seasons with the Jays expecting to contend, say thanks and take the draft pick, unless he has an MVP type season next year then I'd seriously listen on offers - Much can change in 2 seasons, maybe Horwitz surprises or Orelvis best position is 1B - I'd give a thumbs down to any contract that takes Vlad past his age 32 season as I don't think he will age well and Vlad is not going to sign a shorter term contract.

Assume VGJ and Horwitz are both on the team next year, and that Horwitz is an average to above-average defensive first baseman, while VGJ is a below-average one.

Would Vladdy still get the lions share of starts at first base, due to "seniority" (like in a union)? That also would seem to be a poor way to run a baseball team.

Romano, Garcia, and Cabrera should be out tonight, and ideally Richards as well. Mayza, Hicks, and Green will need to hold down the fort.

Are there any relievers doing well in Buffalo lately? Francis has been great, but if Schneider is going to pull starters pitching well at 75 and 84 pitches it might be better having an extra arm he actually trusts over a long man.

He strikes out less and walks more this year.

For batting order....

Batting 3rd: Jays 9th in AL (out of 15) with a sOPS+ of 104 (4% better than average for 3rd place batters). Vlad is at a sOPS+ of 99 there.

Batting 4th: Jays are 5th at 101 (4 teams in the 90's pushes them up for now), Vlad with a 120 sOPS+ batting 4th. Varsho drags it down with his 35 in 107 PA.

Of note: for 1-7 the Jays are middle of the pack (5th to 9th) but for 8th they are #1 with a sOPS+ of 122 thanks mainly to Danny Jansen's 157 sOPS+ (he is way too good to bat 8th), Kiermaier has a 158 there, Espinal 118, Biggio dragging it down with his 90. Batting 9th the Jays are #3 with a 113 thanks to Kiermaier's 128, Varsho's 223 (he likes batting there I guess) with Biggio and Espinal dragging it down of course with sOPS+'s in the 70's.

So basically the lineup hasn't been a big issue beyond having too good of hitters at the 8/9 slots in Jansen & KK but if KK is more comfortable batting 9th (and he has said so publicly) then it makes sense to leave him there.

As to Vlad being demanding of playing 1B - I don't see it too much. He has played 30 games at DH and never publicly has spoken up against it. He has hit well at DH (283/368/483) vs at 1B (264/339/428) so I don't see him fighting it too much. Now, make him DH only and he'd probably get pissed as he has worked on his defense and us old fans remember when the Jays last tried to force a player to DH (George Bell in 1988) - it didn't go well is putting it mildly.

I suspect next year we'll see the same thing as this year with Vlad/Belt where he shares 1B with Horwitz, but more time for Vlad at DH than this year - maybe 60-70 games. Horwitz might see time in LF (24 games there this year, 200 innings, 25 putouts, 1 assist, 0 errors) as well if he is doing well enough. Of course, that is assuming the Jays don't re-sign Belt.

and Nick Martini with the huge 2 run homer in the bottom of the 8th ties up the Mariners.

A good past example is 1990/1991 with John Olerud (a future 3 time Gold Glove 1B for good reason) being made to DH while Fred McGriff (not a stone glove, but not 'wow') played 1B everyday. FanGraphs in 90/91 has McGriff at -11.6 and -19.2 for defense, -186 lifetime. Olerud at -45.3 lifetime, his worst year was 2002 with a -12 (age 33) - McGriff had 5 years worse than that.

So basically, there is precedence for making a rookie DH so the vet can play 1B - even during playoff years. 1987 saw the same with the corpse of Willie Upshaw (89 wRC+, his 2nd year in a row playing full time with a wRC+ sub 100, but positive on defense. 1.4 fWAR over 150 games) playing everyday at 1B while McGriff and Fielder shared time at DH (at least Upshaw was top notch on defense vs McGriff and Fielder so it was easy to understand if you had to play Upshaw why he'd be at 1B). Trust me, we ain't seen anything as mind blowingly nuts from a manager this year as we saw that year (Cecil Fielder at 3B and 2B - how insane is that, platooning a future HOF guy with a 131 wRC+ guy so the 89 guy could play everyday).

Schneider to Clement > Tinker to Evers

and the reds complete the comeback in the bottom of the 9th.

teoscar's mariners choke up the 5-1 lead for the loss.

now 1gm up on the Jays at the moment. Astros likely to pass them for the division lead with their 12-1 lead, which would also push the rangers into a temporary tie with us pending tonight's result.

Reds win! De La Cruz steals 2nd in the 9th and then gets cashed in on a grounder to RF that Teoscar had no chance on to get the runner at the plate.

If the Jays win tonight they'll either be 0.5GB of all 3 teams or, more likely, in a playoff spot and 0.5GB of SEA.

Clement to Schneider this time. Nice and smooth both times.

Just for fun, let's compare:

Álex Rodríguez: 63 GIDP in 3515 plate appearances through age 24. (Double-Play-Rod!)

Miguel Cabrera: 87 GIDP in 3072 PA through age 24.

Manny Ramírez: 40 GIDP in 1609 PA through age 24.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr: 90 GIDP in 2751 career PA.

Texas is reeling. Time for the Jays to grab a WC spot and not look back the rest of the season.

i don't give up on guys easily but i'll admit i gave up on espinal halfway through this season. make me look silly espy.

Could we be witnessing a relaxed Blue Jays team after passing through "warm" Coors Field? Has this team transformed and finally accepted their true identity as a defense-first team that must scrap for wins day in and day out?

Maybe Donnie Baseball knew all along what type of team this was.

Who didn't give up on Espinal? I've been pushing to demote him to AAA for awhile now. Nice effort on his double. I was sure he was going to be thrown out but it seems the A's outfielders have pathetic arms (by ML OF standards).

oh man i woulda sent espinal there. fack.

He would have been in the dugout by the time that ball got to the plate.

Hrm... maybe I should give up on Espinal. He really should've gone for it there - 1 out sac fly weak OF and in the end the throw was sad. He'd have made it easily. He also didn't run on the SB attempt when the catcher threw it to 2B. No idea what's up with him. Cost the Jays a run. Sad.

That 3rd inning epitomizes many of the things wrong with the 2023 Jays. Poor base running decisions, chasing balls trying for hero ABs, poor situational hitting, failing to score runners from 3rd with less than 2 out…..

There’s a pattern to getting Schneider out. It concludes with a high fastball and may include a center cut fastball as well.

Just noticed the Sal and Vida sleeve patches. Better days for Oakland. Much better days.

"That 3rd inning epitomizes many of the things wrong with the 2023 Jays. Poor base running decisions, chasing balls trying for hero ABs, poor situational hitting, failing to score runners from 3rd with less than 2 out….."

All of the "details" that John Schneider said he was going to fix.

Did anybody else hear Scott McArthur divulge that Charlie Montoyo started refusing an Analytics document given to him by Ross Atkins every game? It got to a point where the two were not talking and Charlie couldn't stand his boss and his analytics.

If true, it explains why John Schneider is likely safe in his role as mouthpiece and face for Atkins.

for anyone still looking behind us, TB hits a 3 run shot in the bottom of the 11th to come back and beat the Red Sox. Now 4.5 games back of us at the moment.

Because it’s the A’s it’s a little hard to tell, but Bassitt looks better tonight than in most of his last 6-8 starts. That’s a welcome sight.

A couple of you are absolutely unhinged. Batter's Box has become a toxic place to visit, to be blunt.

Joe,

I spend close to 12K for 81 games to watch this team at the Rogers Center.

I renewed for more money next year.

I've purchased my playoff tickets this morning.

"Unhinged," perfectly describes the process of financially supporting this team. I'm sorry if this passion upsets your calm visits to the box to defend the criticisms of posters.

Can I ask, are you a casual fan or passionate fan? Hoe would you describe yourself. If you're more than a casual fan - how are you not incredibly frustrated watching these games?

there's just something entertaining about the way young Schneider swings.

reminds me of Pedroia.

i'd be so annoyed as an A's fan that the starter was pulled on 90 pitches while pitching a shutout.

Hopefully some innings for Francis tonight!

Yay for a rest day

Chris Bassitt is cruising.

I was thinking the same thing the other day re Pedroia and Schneider. I think it's the selective bail on stuff upstairs.

it's something about the violence of the little guy swinging from his shoetops. just looks good.

Important contributions from Biggio, Kirk and Espinal tonight by not trying to do too much. Just keeping the line moving.

Vladimir's up to .786 OPS.

sends bassitt back out on 90 pitches in a blowout, even after looking a bit tired last inning. so much for the early pulls being about pitch count.

The long shot from behind home plate on tonight's broadcast gave me a flashback to both the Expos and the days of interbrew ownership.

If memory serves the Jays never fell far enough to enter a contraction or relocation conversation but Rogers getting the team and stadium on the cheap probably helped prevent that turn.

A long way of saying, I'm glad Rogers has stepped up, despite the Dome's name change and the tasteless statue of Ted. They invested in the Jays when they didn't look like a sure thing.

here I thought blowouts were the perfect time to put your worst relievers in to eat some innings, not close games where your starter is pitching well on a super low pitch count.

just don't look too closely at a comparison of Rogers' record with Interbrew's, Chris!

It's been clear for awhile that it's about leverage, not pitch count.

ah so he's actually choosing to use his worst RP in high leverage situations.

I like letting Bassitt get 8 as it was clear it mattered to him a lot - if his pitch count was lower and he had the shutout going still he'd be out for the 9th I'm certain. These guys take pride in that stuff and with the days off recently and after this series I figure this was his last chance to really go deep and push that pitch count.

Now just 1 inning needed from the pen - you can give it to Francis and let him be available if needed tomorrow if the pitch count is low, along with the rest of the pen.

As to negativity here, generally it is much less than elsewhere online. We each have favorites/least favorites. Espinal being my least favorite right now, mixed with Garcia who I just don't trust. Mix in letting Kirk run late in close games and that is about it for my frustrations.

On the good - we are seeing Kirk coming back to his 2022 form it seems at the perfect time. Biggio doing well, the mix-match of kids to cover until Bo & Chapman return doing well too. It'll be interesting to see how things go if/when Bo, Chapman, Belt, Jansen, Swanson all return. I see in the order listed - McCoy, Clement, Horwitz, Heineman, and Jackson going down when those guys come back. I miss the old 40 man roster in September as then they could all stay here.

Francis would be the A’s closer.

3 get in:

HOU +1.5
SEA +0.5
TOR -----
------------
TEX -0.5
BOS -5.0

Good game tonight, everyone that played had a hand in winning it.

A fresh bullpen the day before an off day with Ryu on the mound is a good setup for a series sweep.

Heh. I get your point but it is hard to argue that Rogers has not invested in the org the past decade. It's every fan's right to grumble about ownership and the FO but I think it's worth noting that the process has been good for a long time now.

Sure W-L are the ultimate measure of success but I wouldn't trade the ownership and FO of the Jays of the last decade for any other in the AL East.

uglyone - Rogers record is FAR better than Interbrew.

• Labatt: 1976-1995, the beginning then glory years (5 playoffs, 2 WS wins, 5 7th place, 1 6th, 1 5th, 1 4th, 2 3rds, 3 2nds, 5 1sts back when you needed to be 1st to make the playoffs)
• Interbrew: 1996-2000 - ugly, ugly, ugly. AKA the Gord Ash years. 1 5th, 1 4th, 3 3rds. It felt longer. 88-74 the best record (then fired manager due to his lying on his resume during spring training, what a crap show).
• Rogers: 2001-now - 4 playoffs so far, 2 5th place, 9 4th place, 7 3rds, 3 2nds, 1 1st.

Yeah, Rogers has had control for 23 years (bought in 2000, like how Interbrew took over in 1995 but I count transition years as being for the previous owner) without a WS appearance (damn close in 2015). Took awhile, and a few GM's/presidents to get things going but they do have it going much like the '83-93 stretch where home grown talent was the core like it is now. We are seeing wave 2 start of kids it seems with Schneider now and Horwitz getting broken in as well with Barger, Martinez, and others close. Of course, the 92/93 teams didn't have any of the OF of the 80's (core to the 83-89 teams) or many others who were there when things got going. Wonder if the eventual WS winners here will have lost a lot of our current core, thanks to turnover/trades/free agency/etc. Let's hope we see soon.

"4 playoffs". Interbrew would have made the playoffs in 2 of those "playoffs" scenarios for Rogers, for a better playoffs percentage than Rogers.

And of course hilariously Rogers immediately fired the first and only GM to build them a legitimate playoffs team.

It's only hilarious because you keep repeating your incorrect drivel.

At least one of the Rogers kids wanted Beeston to fire AA when the 2016 team was scuffling. Beeston did not fire AA. Then the team made the playoffs and AA was offered a contract. AA turned down the offer and left when his contract expired.

Rogers decided not to retain AA as GM or Paul Beeston as President. Sicne they were god employees Rogers gave them a heads up warning they were not having their contracts renewed by season's end. There was also a leak that Ken Williams was meeting the Rogers brass to replace them which AA and Beeston got wind of.

It's important imho to note that AA built the playoff team only after he learned that he was not being renewed. Had he traded for Price and Tulowitzki at the time he had job security then I would have a lot more admiration for him. As it happened I consider it a "nothing to lose" chance he took that paid off handsomely.

Lets see uglyone...
Top 4 season records - all Labatt
Rest of top 10: 5 Rogers, 1 Labatt
Next 10: 5 Labatt, 1 Interbrew (1998), 4 Labatt

So the top 20 seasons - 1 was during the Interbrew era (the year they gave up half way then the team took off, followed by the worst winter in Jays history in many respects with Clemens demanding a trade, and the manager mess). Yes, that one year they had a better win% than 2020's. #23 was the next Interbrew year (1999) and tied for 25th was Interbrew's final year (2000).

This year, so far, would be #9 all time. Of the playoff seasons just 2 don't make the top 10 - 1989 when the AL East was really bad (Cito's debut as manager after a 12-24 start), and 2020 (freakshow year). Just 3 non-playoff years were in the top 11 - 1987 of course (still hurts), 2021 (so bloody close), and this year which hopefully becomes a playoff year. Other years better than 2020 but no playoffs were 1984, 1983, 1998, 2006, and 1988.

And time to give up on the anger over AA being let go after 2015. He put all the chips in to win in 2013, then doubled down in 2015 and they won the division - it was magic, but was not sustainable. I suspect he learned a lot after that in LA and now is a premium GM in Atlanta. But I like the guys here. Lots of homegrown talent, lots of kids in the pipeline coming up, a few good free agents, no deadly contracts (Springer, Gausman, and Berrios all have risks due to length but so far so good).

Mix in who do we regret trading? - Moreno? 104 OPS+ in Arizona (nice) 3.2 bWAR which is identical to Varsho's bWAR - yeah, he'd be nice but he wouldn't have that playing time here with Kirk/Jansen here already. Varsho has covered a BIG need in the OF for defense (I haven't forgotten last years playoffs where LF defense cost the Jays, and that ugly CF/SS collision). Gurriel Jr has been his usual 2.1 player with his wild splits (over 1000 OPS in May, 480 in July, around a 700 guy otherwise) with his sometimes spectacular defense, sometimes sound asleep defense. Teoscar? 2.2 WAR via a horrid July (554 OPS) mixed with strong June, August (both over 900 OPS). Stripling? 0.1 WAR this year, no thank you (yeah better than Manoah but who saw that coming?). Rowdy Tellez now has an 85 OPS+ and -0.4 WAR which is sad (always liked him and hoped for better). Robbie Ray - 3 1/3 IP this year then TJ surgery after a 2.1 the year before - I'd say the Gausman for Ray swap worked very well. Matz? 1.7 WAR this year 1.4 WAR total over 2 years in St Louis with $25 mil guaranteed over the next 2 years. Grichuk no one would take off waivers for his salary a few weeks ago. Drury for some reason became what the Jays thought he'd be after he left (116 OPS+ in 3 years for 4 teams worth 4.0 WAR total). Walker is another people liked and his 2.5 WAR is nice in the Phillies rotation, 5.6 WAR total over the 3 years since he left.

So I see a few guys who would've been helpful this year (Walker, Drury, Moreno, and in a platoon role if either would've accepted it which I can't imagine they would've for Teoscar or Gurriel) and a lot who we'd be cursing if they were still here (Ray being #1 on that list). I really can't complain at this point. Yeah, if we go back further we might find other issues (not giving up post 2016 quickly enough thus losing trade value for Donaldson for example) but compared to the good stuff I can't complain too loudly.

there's just something entertaining about the way young Schneider swings.

I think you mean 2015. When I deign to pedantry, I endeavour to be meticulous.

The Reds continue to be ridiculously fun. Just sayin

Looking ahead to free agency, I was curious what were the best players available that might make sense on our favorite 1-year deals. Given that our biggest question marks are 3B/LF/2B, and we have a myriad of possible young players to help out, it seems most likely we look for more veterans a la Kiermaier/Whit/Belt, knowing they may be part-time players if things go well with the youngsters.

The best options I could find that might make sense and would be likely to take a 1-year deal are Evan Longoria (3B) and Brantley (LF). The Jays have long since wanted Brantley, and he may be available after an injury-plagued year and a bit. If Longoria doesn't retire, he's still a competent part-time 3rd baseman and gives us insurance there.

For a player looking for a prove-it deal: Jesse Winker. Unfortunately, he seems to have completely fallen off the past two years - between reports of work ethic issues and nagging injuries, there'd be a lot of risk, but chances are he won't cost all that much after two bad years.

In the end, I could definitely see us going the trade route given the available options.

"Lowballed and insulted him" is no better than "fired".

The first GM to build them a playoffs team immediately gets replaced.

Even you guys have to admit that's hilarious.

Rogers never low balled them. They moved on from AA and Beeston. It was Shapiro who extended an olive branch to AA to stay on in a BS capacity after the fact.

My personal take it AA and Beeston went for it because they were upset Rogers wanted to spend $$ on the Jays for the next 10 years but didnt trust Beeston or AA to do it. At the time the biggest rumours were Ken Williams or Duquette coming in.

I was ambivalent about AA taking a hike in 2015 and still am today. As nice as 2015 was he did the franchise zero favors going into 2013. The FO was restructuring and AA didn't want to play his part. No big deal. He's done well and the current front office is quite good. The team needed to rebuild and I'm not convinced that's AA's strength as a GM.

Can I ask, are you a casual fan or passionate fan? Hoe would you describe yourself. If you're more than a casual fan - how are you not incredibly frustrated watching these games?

I'm as hardcore as it comes — I literally pay my own money to host Batter's Box, the website you're on.

Of course I'm frustrated! But I don't pretend that a) I know better than people whose entire life is baseball, or b) there's something fundamentally wrong with either management or the Jays' approach.

Quoting from a recent Andrew Stoeten post:

PLAYER A: 8.3 BB%, 22.1 K%, .254/.319/.426, 105 wRC+
PLAYER B: 8.5 BB%, 21.3 K%, .257/.327/.414, 105 wRC+
WHO YA GOT? Or— hold on. Before you answer, let me tell you that Player A only has one more home run than Player B.
Got your answer?

Player A is the 2023 Baltimore Orioles, who have scored 632 runs. Player B is the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays, who have scored 571.

There is way, way, way too much luck in baseball.

There is way, way, way too much luck in baseball.

You say that as if it's a bad thing!

But it is quite impossible to over-emphasize the enormous role played by dumb, blind, random luck.

AA was there for 6 years in which the Blue Jays were really bad but did not actually rebuild.
They had 2 good months--after he decided to leave--and that didn't extend to the playoffs.

Bautista was truly special and the bat flip will leave on and eventually nobody will remember AA.

AA was a very young GM in Toronto. He did a good job of building up the farm system (including finding loopholes to add extra draft picks). In my opinion, he hit his stride before and during the 2015 season, when he made a series of good moves to build a championship-calibre team. He acknowledges that he failed to make one last "icing on the cake" move that was on the table -- Zobrist for Tellez -- that could have put the team over the top.

Branch Rickey's dictum- "luck is the residue of design"- has been a long-lasting motivator for me. It's easy to blame bad luck in a multifactorial world, and convenient because we can release ourselves from that which we do control.

The Blue Jays have not been unlucky this year. As much as the offence has underperformed its component parts, the run prevention side has overperformed. And while the Orioles have indeed overperformed in both, the Rays have actually had poor luck on both the efficiency and injury fronts. By rights, the Rays should have walked away with the division with the Jays perhaps slightly ahead of the Orioles for second place.

This is not to say that Blue Jay management has been terrible. It hasn't been. It also hasn't been great. Nonetheless, the team has about a 5% chance of winning the World Series with luck playing an increasing role from here on out. It has been delightful to watch Schneider, Clement and Horwitz, and I am hoping we see more of them in September and October.

Run Prevention Side:

#4 RA/gm
#2 ERA-
#5 FIP-
#5 SIERA
#7 xFIP-
#9 DEF
#12 BABIP

There's no luck there. It's fully earned.

Nope. Base Runs does it better, and simpler. The club has scored 4.63 and allowed 4.08 runs per game; with average efficiency on both sides, the club would have scored 4.85 and allowed 4.33 runs per game. The particulars are found on Fangraphs Projected Standings page, Base Runs tab.

A fair point that the Jays haven't been overall-unlucky, just RISP-unlucky! That being said, Ben Clemens did an analysis of runners left on base at FanGraphs, comparing first half results to their equivalent in the second half, and there was basically no correlation with anything except strikeout rate*. That means that a team that's bad at getting runners in during the first half is just as likely as not to be good in the second half. Also known as: luck!

* And that correlation is negative: the less often you strike out, the more runners you tend to score. It's not for nothing that I point out that the Jays are the 5th best team in the majors at K%.

Let's not go overboard. AA has already punched his ticket to St. Mary's, and the Braves once again look like the best team in baseball.

Interesting food for thought Joe. Please PM regarding this site.

Branch Rickey's dictum- "luck is the residue of design"

I'm sure old Branch said that, and I'll bet he - and every one running a team since - believed it. Otherwise, there's not much point in even having a design.

But I don't believe it. Luck is just luck. Blind, random, unpredictable, fickle.

Maybe it's luck. Baseball is just hard. The ultimate challenge of speed, power, and timing.

Luck itself is unbiased, friendless, a favour to no one in particular. But good design can potentially put one into a better position to receive that fickle mistress that is luck, at least how I see it.

Here's how I see the Branch luck comment. Let's say Toronto and Oakland would have been the 2 luckiest teams this season, however one defines luck. Toronto's luck propelled them into the Baltimore/Rays group fighting for the ALE lead, and comfortably in a playoff position. Oakland's luck propelled them past KC into the Rockies/White Sox group.

People would talk about how lucky Toronto was, because their luck actually made a difference in what's important. They were designed to be good, and ended up better. How much lucky Oakland chatter would there be? Little if any, because they were designed to be bad and all that good luck ended up being immaterial.

I agree that luck is not the sole reason in difference in runs scored between the Jays and Orioles. In the games the two teams played against each other, the Orioles were much better at moving runners over on the bases and then driving them in once they were in scoring position.

There's nothing wrong with having a good plan! I recommend it! But given the choice, I'd much rather have good luck and a bad plan than the reverse. My perspective on the subject has probably been thrown permanently off kilter by the 2005 White Sox.

Luck or no luck, i take this Jays roster over the Orioles roster fairly easily.

This from dictionary.com: luck: a combination of circumstances, events, etc., operating by chance to bring good or ill to a person:

Effectively influencing the combination of circumstances, events, etc. might bring better luck?. Still, the inability to be omnipresent means one must sit in meditation without full appreciation of Karma.

Time for my medication!

Verlander vs Scherzer tonight.

The idea that AA emptied the system because he had one foot out the door is a fan-driven narrative that I don't believe has ever actually been reported on. One can just as easily give AA credit for realizing that none of the prospects he traded for Price and Tulowitzki would amount to much, and that selling them while they still had some prospect shine was the best move for a .500 team with a ridiculous Pythag record. Like when it looked like Atkins overpaid for Berrios.

Deck chairs on the SS Athletic are being rearranged. The three human punching bag relievers employed yesterday have all been dispatched, two to the minors and one to the netherworld. Fresh meat is being cycled in, one of whom, Mason Miller, may actually be a major league pitcher. If I count correctly, that will bring the team's pitcher count to 37 for the season.

The team's run differential of -303 is a full 100 runs worse than that of the woeful Rockies. That differential amounts to -2.2 runs per game. That is the kind of putrid that makes one take pause, have a good look and ask the question: is this organization even trying? Their hockey team, back in the day, was as consistently and famously inept. Are they paying homage to the Seals' history?

So far, the players obtained in the trades of Chapman, Olson and Murphy have yet to make clear they will be building blocks for the future. There may well be nuggets among them -- I don't follow such things terribly closely -- but hoo boy, to be a fan of this team is asking the impossible.

Twins beat the Guardians 20-6 Monday. 3 players stood out. Royce Lewis because he's really good when healthy. Lucas Giolito because he's really bad when not a White Sox. And David Fry, because he's the first to do what he did in over 35 years.

Fry came into the game with Cleveland down 11-1 in the 6th, 2 on, nobody out and pitched the final 4 innings.  He allowed both inherited runners to score, plus gave up 7 more runs. Fry is a catcher. He became the 1st true position player to go 4 since Jose Oquendo worked the final 4 innings of a 19 inning game back in 1988.

Springer DHs for the 2nd game in a row which pushes Kirk out of the lineup today and puts Biggio back in RF against a LHP. Hopefully George is okay.

"The idea that AA emptied the system because he had one foot out the door is a fan-driven narrative that I don't believe has ever actually been reported on. One can just as easily give AA credit for realizing that none of the prospects he traded for Price and Tulowitzki would amount to much, and that selling them while they still had some prospect shine was the best move for a .500 team with a ridiculous Pythag record. Like when it looked like Atkins overpaid for Berrios."

In fact, one of the best traits of the current FO is there willingness and ability to sell high on overvalued top prospect, exactly like AA.

Their not there.

Prospects not prospect.

gah.

AA's version of the Berrios trade was the Dickey trade.

The problem was that Dickey required a specialized catcher.
Navarro couldn't handle him and Martin was bruising his fingers whenever he tried.
There were set at DH, so not a lot of flexibility there.
That, right there, was a very flawed lineup.
A better GM would have traded Navarro to fill one of the many holes the team had.

Instead, AA employed a PED user picked up on waivers as the main utility player, to the tune of 2.5 oWAR/-2.2 dWAR. Colabello played 34 games at first, 33 in left field and 13 in right field.

Also, the rest of the AL East finished 2 games over .500,  326-324.
When you account for strength of schedule, the current team is certainly better. 

My view for some time has been that the Jays’ overall run differential has been earned. In saying that I believe the offense to have been unlucky and the run prevention to have been lucky in about equal degrees. I do think the RS issues extend beyond just pure bad luck. There have been real situational hitting issues throughout the lineup and this is a bad (real bad) base running club. They are generally a really smart defensive club though so I can’t make this team’s issues add up frankly.

Listening to the At The Letters podcast where Arden and Ben discuss Alek Manoah. According to Arden, Manoah claimed to have quad and back soreness while he was in Toronto. The Jays put him through a battery of tests and found nothing significant. However he did no throwing while this diagnostic work was ongoing.

That probably explains his time in Toronto when it appeared that nothing was happening.

If a player says that he's hurt, wouldn't you just put him on the injured list? I'd think "bad back" is nebulous enough that no one would question at least one DL stint for Manoah.

Terrific PA from Schneider.  He took 4 pitches, 3 of which were close but balls.  It's shocking given their histories, but he has better plate control than Vladdy. 

well this is shaping up to be pretty disappointing.

Merrifield is gonna come out of today's came with around a 50wrc+ in his last 150pa or so.

Hope Schneider is being made aware of just how bad and how long this stretch has been.

HR's this series: A's - 5, Jays - 0.

Merrifield has the lowest xwOBA on the club.  He has been playing every day, and regularly in key positions in the order. 

There's that Smith power that made him interesting for a second.

Siddall nails it.  That wouldn't have been a HR at night in Oakland. 

I'm glad the broadcast brought up the lack of home runs. The "need 3 hits to score a run" offense is not only boring/frustrating to watch, but not a sustainable night to night model. The drop in power to key bats on the team (Springer, Vlad, etc) has really hurt. I haven't looked at the numbers too deeply, the last time I looked at Springer and Chapman's statcast pages they had a significant drop in pull% this season. Not sure if it's something the coaching staff wants the hitters to do. Vlad in particular should be pulling everything with his exit velocities. Regardless of what happens with the Jays this season, they need to completely revamp their hitting philosophy.

I would have liked to see Ryu start the 6th, but Schneider always gets excited when he has all hands on deck and doesn't consider the longer-term ramifications.

Is that 7 infield flys through 6? I’ve never seen that before

Well at least Green's velocity is coming back. 96.8mph on that last one.

It was nice being back in a playoff spot, if only for a few hours.

Its about how long they would last in the playoffs if they made it

If they make the playoffs it'd be impressive if they could find a way to make it more painful than last year.

Ryu's 2023 game log / pitch count:

August
vs Baltimore - 80
@ Cleveland - 52
vs Chicago Cubs - 86
@ Cincinnati - 83
vs Cleveland - 70

September
@ Colorado - 76
@ Oakland - 77

xwOBA is seen as a way of 'looking into what is likely to be' vs wRC+ which shows 'results so far'. If you think of it that way, then the stars are 350+: Schneider (over 400), Vlad, Horwitz, Clement, Bo. Solids (325-349): Chapman, Springer, Belt. Acceptable (300-324): Jansen, Kirk, Kiermaier, Biggio, Varsho. Bad (275-299): Espinal, Lukes, Merrifield (dead last among hitters outside of McCoy who is at 0.000).

Basically if the stats guys who work for the Jays have any influence then Merrifield would be seeing less and less playing time, Clement wouldn't be getting pinch hit for, and no way Schneider would be getting days off unless he is tired or hurt. Btw, Merrifield's xwOBA for last year was .288 and .301 in 2021 so his 281 this year is not an anomaly but what I'd think is his real level of play now. His energy is nice, but really he shouldn't be playing everyday at this point. Sadly I expect to see him in every lineup until 2023 is done. He is the anti-Vlad - a guy whose core stats say he is worse than his 'real' stats, who puts out 110% every game. Both wear their hearts on their sleaves though.

Max Scherzer rocked for 7 runs, 3 homers including a 425 ft. grand slam for José Abreu.

No matter how frustrating this year has been it sure beats what Texas fans must be going through right now - 150 days in first place and now out of the playoff picture by 1/2 a game behind our Jays. Those fans woke up August 16th in first by 3 1/2, then watched their team go on an 8 game losing streak, winning just 4 since then vs 6 losses with a 7th on the way tonight. Ugh. Unless something big happens they'll be 4-3 in Max Scherzer's 7 starts so far (they had to think he was the final piece in the puzzle, like David Price and David Cone were here once upon a time).

Of course, even that doesn't reach the pure frustration the 2 NY teams must feel - spending all-time records on payroll and looking at last place finishes for each. Yankees are 1 1/2 behind Boston though so they might climb out while the Mets are 1 1/2 ahead of Washington in the NL East. Definitely not the race those teams and their fans expected this year. Or St Louis who are 3 1/2 behind Pittsburgh for last place in the NL Central - after 4 straight playoff appearances - the last time St Louis came in last in their division it was the NL East in 1990 (6th of 6), their last sub 500 season was 2007 (Pujols was their star at age 27, Yadier Molina their kid catcher at 24, Adam Wainwright is probably the last guy active from that team with his 53 ERA+).

Texas’s next series is at home against Oakland.

Just 6 games in MLB today:

6:40 PM E - Seattle (Luis Castillo) vs. Tampa Bay (Zack Littell)

Man, the offense is so bad right now. Its easy to blame the manager because he does things like hitting Merrifield (who is a below average hitter) cleanup but it's deeper than that. Last year, Jays had 6 hitters with WRC+ of at least 129. 5 of those players returned this season. 0 of those players have a WRC+ of 129 (Bichette very close) and only one has a WRC+ of over 115.
WRC+ 2022/2023
Jansen 141/114
Springer 133/104
Vlad 132/114
Bichette 130/129
Kirk 129/97

And they also added Varsho
Varsho 107/81

I didn't expect Jansen to repeat the 141 but everyone except Bo has been MUCH worse and that is just a killer. (Yes, Schneider also does seem too slow to realize that Merrifield isn't that good but it's not like there are great hitters around him).

I think the padres have the most interesting record this year compared to the jays. Same Pythagorean, same RS/RA (and this has been true since at least the all star break)…very different results. The Padres would be comfortably be in a playoff spot if their W-L was like the Jays.

When we've talked about extension candidates here the past few years, it's always Vlad or Bo. Neither seems likely IMO for different reasons. If I were part of the Jays FO, I would be starting internal discussions about another name - Davis Schneider.

When most people try to show a player is good using a small sample, they invariably cherry pick the start of a hot streak. I'm going to do the opposite.

Davis Schneider had that record setting series in Boston, but then went 0 for 9 in Cleveland. So ignoring the Boston series and starting with the 1st Cleveland game, what has he done?

17 games, 67 PA, 16 H, 7 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 14 BB, 20 K. .308/.463/.769. 1.232 OPS

"Man, the offense is so bad right now. Its easy to blame the manager because he does things like hitting Merrifield (who is a below average hitter) cleanup but it's deeper than that. Last year, Jays had 6 hitters with WRC+ of at least 129. 5 of those players returned this season. 0 of those players have a WRC+ of 129 (Bichette very close) and only one has a WRC+ of over 115.
WRC+ 2022/2023
Jansen 141/114
Springer 133/104
Vlad 132/114
Bichette 130/129
Kirk 129/97"

thing is I'm pretty sure a whole lotta this is just mental. hitting is contagious and non-hitting is contagious, and these guys just don't feel confident as a group up there.


except for the AAA guys, who have all come up hot and fearless. which is why it's double annoying that they're just cannibalizing each other's playing time instead of getting in there pretty much every game until they cool off.

I have loved the Schneider experience, but I think a lot more caution is warranted about his long term future.

He’s had exceptional results, but he’s faced a lot of poor competition. I looked back at the game logs, and I only saw 2 appearances vs teams .500 or better after Boston. He went 1/4 overall. I would need to see another full season, at minimum, before I would feel comfortable even talking to him about the possibility of an extension. We don’t know how his defence will hold up. We don’t know how better teams will pitch to him (he was O for Cleveland).

There are many unknowns here. Lawrie had a great start to his career too, and he was out of the league at 26. Let’s just enjoy the ride for as long as lasts.

MLB history, Minimum 50pa:

* 1. 1927 Mule Suttles: 116pa, 269wrc+
* 2. 1948 Bob Boyd: 59pa, 264wrc+
* 3. 2023 Davis Schneider: 82pa, 261wrc+
* 4. 1953 Ted Williams: 110pa, 255wrc+
* 5. 1943 Josh Gibson: 302pa, 251wrc+

still holding.

That's why I said internal discussions. If you offer a long term deal, makeup is huge. How hard a worker is he? Jays know. How willing is he to take instruction? Jays know. What kind of person is he? Jays know.

Lawrie is a great counter-example. Poor makeup. That was the primary reason the Brewers were willing to part with him after he refused to go to the AFL because he wasn't put on the 40 man. We saw it here when he publicly screamed at Rivera for not sending Lind on a medium fly ball to right. You do not invest in a player like that.

If the Jays really believe in the player, the sooner the deal is made, the lower the cost. Don't know Schneider's financial situation, but he wasn't a big bonus guy like Bo or Vlad. So maybe he will take the guaranteed security at a lower cost, (like Acuna and Albies in Atlanta, but much cheaper) with both sides assuming some risk.

The internal discussions will not be quick. Jays are going to be facing better pitching soon. By season's end, Jays should have a pretty good idea of what they have.c

Assuming that Davis has not incurred a year of service time, he will be a Jay for 6 more years. At that time he will have just turned 31.

Experience should teach us that pitching staffs are very good at finding weaknesses. The players that last make the adjustments to fix their weaknesses. Those that dont turn into JP Arencibia, Josh Phelps, Travis Snider and many others. Plus some players have trouble staying healthy.

Davis has 20 MLB games. A little early to be giving him a job in 2030, especially when the Jays have the luxury of seeing what he turns into over the next couple of years.

A typical ugly stat-splatz.

“MLB history”, he writes. Except Ted Williams did not begin his major league career in 1953 -- and ugly knows that. So the ‘stat’ is utterly meaningless.

There’s an awfully fine line between playing with your readers and insulting them.

Not sure what you mean, Dewey.

Those are the top-5 minimum 50pa seasons in MLB history.

Top-5 in wRC+, to be precise.

I thought the discussion was about players’ performances at the beginning of their careers?

Apologies if I misconstrued your intentions. But that’s precisely what’s wrong with your favoured stat-splatz method of slamming down figures and leaving them uninterpreted. Their meanings are *not* self-evident.

ah it was just an update on a post I made on a thread here a week or two ago about the best MLB seasons with a minimum sample size. not trying to make any claims on what Schneider will be. I'm still hugely skeptical of him.

Just thought it was fun that even in the world of tiny sample sizes, what Schneider has done so far is still possibly historic. For now at least. I'll keep checking how he ranks historically as the tiny sample size grows. Would be fun if he kept it up past the 100pa mark.

of note, those two 50+pa seasons better than Schneider there are both negro league seasons.

L-C placed a wager on Seattle and Atlanta in tonight's games.

By any measure Schneiders start has been insane. The only thing I can compare it to is Bonds PED stats. The universally agreed on stretch for PEDs for Bonds was 1999-2007 when he hit an insane 316/505/712 over 4506 PA 214 OPS+. That is WORSE than what Schneider has done so far. His peak was 2001-2004 349/559/809 256 OPS+. Schneider currently is at 385/512/846 267 OPS+ - only lower in OBP (0 IBB vs Bonds getting at least 2 every single ML season of his career, 120 in 2004). When one has to look at the Negro leagues to find similar 50+ PA stats for a guy and to PED Bonds for similar overall stats you know you are looking at something amazing.

So for the rest of this year only a fool wouldn't put Schneider in the lineup everyday somewhere (helps that he can play 3B/2B/LF). For 2024 the only question is where do you put him to start the season? 2B he is most comfortable at, 3B will be open though - much like in 1992 with Jeff Kent getting a shot at 3B due to Kelly Gruber collapsing (72 OPS+ after being an all-star 2 years earlier) despite being a much better bet defensively at 2B (Roberto Alomar had that locked down). Schneider doesn't have any real competition at 2B though (Merrifield, Biggio, and Espinal combined have 2.0 bWAR as does Schneider on his own in less than 10% of the PA) while 3B is vacant until Chapman returns. So I'd put him at 3B until Chapman is back, then move him to 2B at that point for the rest of the year. Merrifield can share LF with Varsho while Varsho shares CF with Kiermaier. Biggio & Espinal can warm the bench full time once Bo & Chapman are back.

Bonds could have been an interesting fit with the Blue Jays circa 2008.

The Jays have caught a break. Texas has placed Adolis Garcia (4.1 fWAR this year) on the 10-day IL with a patellar tendon strain.

Thee are a lot of interesting what ifs with the 2008 Jays the radioactive Bonds aside.

Every team in baseball independently decided they didn’t need a guy still OPSing over 1. I guess they had access to some advanced metrics we don’t.

Going into 2008 it drove me nuts the Jays wouldn't sign bonds. Seemed an obvious fit. There was no planned DH at the start - it ended up being backup OF Matt Stairs (98 OPS+ -0.4 WAR) with Adam Lind in LF (101 OPS+ 0.2 WAR). Team OPS+ of 96. But yeah, they didn't need the best LH hitter in history - and no holier than thou crap this club had Eckstein at SS (a real jerk), a decade earlier had Clemens (who started PEDs in Toronto) and Canseco (Mr. PED), then signed Melky Cabrera in 2013 (right after his PED episode). The Jays during the dark times were very happy to have PED guys around. In 2008 they were far from the playoffs, 9 games out, but with 86 wins it was one of their best 1994-2014 seasons, but could've been 3-5 wins better with a ML minimum salary at DH and made it a lot more exciting. Sigh.

Encourage everyone to take a listen to yesterday’s episode of Jays Talk Plus. At about the 26 minute mark the Buffalo Bisons hitting coach, Matt Hague calls in and talks about how the jays teach hitting and approach. I really enjoyed it.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-talk/id430621876?i=1000626977676

It could have been that the Commissioner's Office warned all the teams not to sign him. It's as true now as it was then -- baseball's high and mighty act holier-than-thou when they think something might make them look bad.

Agreed Island Boy - no question the league told the teams not to sign him and the Jays under Beeston (pretty sure he was president then) would've done anything they were told to do by the commissioner. It'll be interesting to see how the league handles Wander Franco this winter (obvious they are delaying any decision until after the season is done) as his offense is very gross and seems to be getting worse as time goes by. Might be easier to kick him out with the Rays still playing well.

It could have been that the Commissioner's Office warned all the teams not to sign him.

The fact that he'd just been indicted on four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice possibly caused some concern as well.

Roger Clemens and José Canseco pumping iron at SkyDome.

Strasburg announced and then canceled his retirements as the Nats apparently saw this as a reason not to pay the remainder of his contract.

That looks just like bad PR.  One thing is clear, he's never pitching again.

Following that last loss, I'm going to reiterate that I don't like how they sequence the bullpen.
Cabrera and Mayza shouldn't replace Ryu or Kikuchi and I hate Richards following Ryu as well.
I don't like Garcia after Berrio either.
Too much emphasizes on the "leverage" and nothing else.

They should mix it up, dare the other manager to pinch hit early.

"Following that last loss, I'm going to reiterate that I don't like how they sequence the bullpen." I was thinking the same thing when watching the game. Why not go with someone throwing 96+, right or left. To me, Richards just played into the hitters timing.

Who is Leaside Cowboy betting on tonight?!

in regards to Richards, he kinda seems to be regressing back to what he's been before.

L-C was 2-for-2 betting baseball, but 0-for-1 on the NFL parlay.

Tonight, L-C favours the New York Mets on the road vs. Dallas Keuchel and the Twins.

Richards has command on the fastball and movement on the change.
Following Ryu, his fastball might look like it's on a tee.
Also, the Jays don't pitch outside like most other teams do.
They like to challenge the hitter inside and sometimes they turn on one.
Richards' change is going to be inside to a right handed hitter.
Following Berrios, when they have 4 lefties in the lineup, he can be very effective.

Swanson is eligible for return on Sept 11.

Well, right now the Jays are listed at 61.2% shot at the playoffs, Red Sox 4%, Yankees 0.5%. Astros 98%, Mariners 88.4%, Rangers 48.1%. That's it for the wild card. O's at 100% for reaching, Rays 99.9% (a 1 in 1000 chance of them collapsing totally).

I like the Jays chances given how the Rangers have collapsed totally lately - once a ball starts rolling downhill it is hard to stop. Now their cleanup hitter Adolis García is on the IL and have to hope Evan Carter can burst onto the scene like Davis Schneider did - anything less might not help at this point. Over 108 games in Rk-AA-AAA this year he hit 288/413/450 which if he could duplicate that in the majors would make him very valuable, but at this point the Rangers need not value but a savior even though they are just 1/2 a game back of the Jays - you can't slump like they have and just get up and run - well, you can but generally you don't.