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At last, at long last, the Blue Jays come home.

I looked at the schedule and immediately started muttering T.S. Eliot verses to myself. This was because long ago I acquired an expensive education and I have yet to get tired of Showing Off:

April is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.

That's for when one is feeling gloomy - I can also whip out some Chaucer on better days. But Eliot seemed prudent for this occasion. Ten games on the road, against two teams that had better records than last year's Blue Jays and winding up with a trip to the Bronx (now, as always, the true focus of Evil in the modern world.) Oh, and their two best relief pitchers are on the Injured List? And the particular role of Fifth Starter is giving me Spinal Tap drummer vibes? Expectations would need to be tempered. The curve I was grading on went something like this:

10-0 This is not the real life. This is definitely fantasy.
9-1 Should we start planning the parade?
8-2 This team is pretty good
7-3 This team might be pretty good
6-4 Outstanding. Who plays .600 ball on the road?
5-5 Solid. A job well done.
4-6 Acceptable, under the circumstances.
3-7 That's a little disappointing.
2-8 That's very disappointing.
1-9 Leafs are still playing, right?
0-10 Köpfe rollen!

The Jays came in at Acceptable Under the Circumstances and so did their next opponent. The Jays' expansion cousins, another team built around the strength of their starting rotation, another team with post-season ambitions despite the depressing presence of a couple of powerhouse outfits in their own division, also went 4-6 in their first ten games. Like the Jays, the Mariners have been allowing quite a few more runs than they anticipated (52 for Seattle, 53 for Toronto) while managing to score fewer than they need (just 31 for Seattle, 36 for Toronto.) And this off-season, the Mariners even traded one of their most hyped prospect to a National League team, presumably because it had worked so well for the Blue Jays the previous winter.

Cousins with so much in common!

Well, no one said it was going to be easy. For anyone.

A fair bit of the early season chatter about has been on the topic of pitchers and why they seem to be breaking even more frequently than usual. I refer you to Ben Lindbergh at The Ringer ("MLB’s Next Order of Business? Saving Pitchers"), Andy McCullough ("MLB insiders “pretty worried” by rise in arm injuries to top young starting pitchers") and Ken Rosenthal ("Pitching injury crisis has no easy fix, but baseball’s leaders better get to work on one") at The Athletic. And since we went to "press," Jeff Passan at ESPN ("Why MLB must act now on alarming rate of pitching injuries") has chimed in.Something probably needs to be done, if only people could figure out what that something should be.


Mon 8 April - Castillo (0-2, 6.75) vs Berrios (1-0, 2.25)
Tue 9 April - Kirby (1-1, 5.23) vs Bassitt (0-2, 7.71)
Wed 10 April - Gilbert (0-0, 3.55) vs Kikuchi (0-1, 2.79)
Seattle at Toronto, April 8-10 | 172 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#444205) #

Hitting so far:


* Turner 35pa, 172wrc+
* Schneider 16pa, 158wrc+


* Biggio 29pa, 124wrc+
* Guerrero 45pa, 117wrc+
* Springer 46pa, 117wrc+
* Vogelbach 11pa, 116wrc+
* Clement 26pa, 110wrc+


* Bichette 36pa, 84wrc+
* Falefa 28pa, 71wrc+


* Severn 7pa, 31wrc+
* Varsho 34pa, 27wrc+
* Kirk 34pa, 23wrc+
* Kiermaier 27pa, -12wrc+

Haven't had any choice with playing the catchers, but insisting that Varsho and KK are full time starters is a choice.

Starting Pitchers:


* none


* Berrios: 6.0ip/gs, 62era-, 123fip-, 92xfip-
* Kikuchi: 4.8ip/gs, 79era-, 91fip-, 80xfip-


* none


* Bassitt: 4.7ip/gs, 219era-, 151fip-, 127xfip-
* Gausman: 2.8ip/gs, 270era-, 248fip-, 110xfip-
* Francis: 4.2ip/gs, 367era-, 216fip-, 84xfip-

Don't have much hope for Francis but obviously Gausman and Bassitt will be much much better.



* Richards: 6gms, 0era-, 41fip-, 76xfip-
* Pearson: 4gms, 0era-, 37fip-, 73xfip-
* Garcia: 3gms, 0era-, 28fip-, 95xfip-


* Espino: 1gms, 0era-, 114fip-, 155xfip-
* White: 2gms, 102era-, 140fip-, 136xfip-
* Green: 3gms, 75era-, 186fip-, 153xfip-


* none


* Mayza: 6gms, 187era-, 188fip-, 170xfip-
* Cabrera: 4gms, 373era-, 261fip-, 147xfip-
* Parsons: 2gms, 298era-, 224fip-, 133xfip-

greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#444206) #
Toronto is 29th in MLB in stolen bases (they have 1 SB). Cincinnati is first with 18. Tampa has 14, Boston has 10, the Yankees have 5 and the Orioles have 4.

The lack of speed is a dimension of the game that could hurt the Blue Jays this year, especially since the rule changes are encouraging more stolen bases.

Also, it's boring and predictable to never steal bases.
scottt - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#444207) #
Looking at the standings:

Out west, the Astros are 3-7. The Angels are 5-4.  The Mariners are 4-6. Welcome to Toronto guys.

In the central, Guardians are 7-2, Tigers are 6-3, Royals are 6-4, Twins are 3-4 (Not playing much) and White Sox are 1-8.

And of course here, Jays are in the basement, Rays are up 1 game and Boston in 7-3.

Gerry - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#444209) #
Those are three mano a mano pitching matchups. It will be interesting.
Ducey - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#444210) #
"Also, it's boring and predictable to never steal bases."

I'll take no base stealing over the "aggressive on the base paths" clown show we had last year.

Anyway, its early, they have not been getting on base, and have been playing from behind most of the year.
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#444211) #
Those are fair points, but the inability to steal bases points to an issue that goes beyond OPS/wRC+. Adding players like Turner and Vogelbach and Votto doesn't allow the team to take advantage of the revamped rules that facilitate base stealing. With Kirk and Vladdy and an aging Springer and Kiermaier, the team may be at a disadvantage offensively in this respect. The combination of a relative lack of power, lack of speed, and mediocre on-base ability may prove challenging for the team to overcome in 2024.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#444212) #
Random question: What did John Schneider do to merit being this team's manager through this window of contention?

If this team falters again, I think an underrated aspect of the front offices failure is placing a guy in charge with no managerial experience and only two seasons of being a major league coach.
christaylor - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#444213) #
I am not a fan of John Schneider, but his work in the half-season after Montoyo was worthy of a second look in 2022. After the playoffs in 2023, it would have been a good time to replace him, but they seem to have minimized him by adding extra staff.

There's a lot going on other than what we see, and perhaps he is merely a guy the FO knows they can work with, which seems important these days. That said, I won't be sad when his time is up.
Ducey - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#444214) #
I guess we will ignore the fact that Belt (0 steals last yr), Chapman(4), Espinal (2) and Merrifield (26 steals, caught 10 times) were replaced in the speed area by IKF (14), Clement (12) and Schneider (9).

And last time I checked Votto isnt on the team, nor are he and Vogelbach likely to be on the roster together.

I'd say the abilities are about even from last year.
Nigel - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#444215) #
I think its fair to ask how much "managing" is Schneider actually doing? I don't know the answer to that. My sense is that, unplanned, actual "in game" decision making (pinch running, pinch hitting, pitcher changes etc.) is on Schneider and that playing time/roster usage is a collaborative effort. Most of my concerns about how the team is run (not terribly, just inefficiently) fall into the second bucket so I'm just not sure that Schneider is to blame. My sense may be wrong of course.
Ducey - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#444216) #
"Random question: What did John Schneider do to merit being this team's manager through this window of contention?"

Wasnt he seen as the Vlad and Bo whisperer? He coached them in the minors.

Pretty common qualification in pro sports these days.
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#444217) #
"I'd say the abilities are about even from last year"

So the team failed to address a weakness of last year's team. OK. We agree on that.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#444218) #
Schneider in left-field, Biggio at second base, IKF at third.
Nigel - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#444219) #
As the song goes - "2 outta 3 ain't bad".
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#444220) #
I would be curious to know the team’s logic for starting IKF over Clement at third base. Does IKF have a strong track record against Castillo?
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#444221) #
Answering my own question: 2/6 with 2 Ks. Hard to glean much from that sample.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#444223) #
I agree with all of those points about Schneids role, and who is ultimately responsible for on field decisions the team makes. I won't be sad when his time is up either.

I'd just rather see the manager stick up to the front office to get more opportunities. Davis Schneider should be playing everyday in left field. He's outplayed Varsho. Biggio should be playing everyday at second. He's outplayed Espinal, Merrifield, and whoever else they've thrown out there the past few years, save for Semien. Ernie Clement should be starting at third, he can be replaced by IKF late game when concerned with defence.

Give these new guys a month of run, and see what comes back. What do they have to lose at this point?
GabrielSyme - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#444224) #
Even if it's "only" $15m, one problem with signing a guy like IKF is that the team is only going to cut his playing time slowly if he's outperformed. And one hopes the front office saw something more in IKF than we do - otherwise the signing is befuddling. And if they did, then they'll probably want to give him even longer rope before he's relegated to the bench.
dalimon5 - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#444226) #
Framber Valdez scratched from start with elbow soreness...

If ever there is a year to try to move the is this year. Not sure what this FO can do to improve drastically without getting Soto, J-Ram, or Trout.

If they can get that big bat that they need then I don't see any other teams standing in their way in the East other than Baltimore who I agree with Ugly, is beatable.
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#444227) #
Watch out for Baltimore at the trade deadline. They have new ownership and some valuable prospects they can move if they want to.
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#444228) #
I liked the aggression from Berrios in the first inning, filling up the strike zone and using multiple pitches.
Marc Hulet - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#444229) #
I assume not playing IKF in the home opener would look bad on the front office. They're likely more worried about saving face over a bad move than winning a game.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#444230) #
I liked the aggression from Berrios in the first inning, filling up the strike zone and using multiple pitches.

He walked a guy and gave up two loud outs. The line drive from Rodriguez was 114 mph. I thought he was lucky to get out of it without giving up a run

Nigel - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#444231) #
After a really poor AB by Biggio that was a great AB by Kirk.
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#444232) #
I noted both of those things, 99. I still liked Berrios going right after Rodriguez and forcing him to put the ball in play early in the count of his first PA. The walk was a fairly close pitch in a 3-2 count with two out. Acceptable. I thought the overall tenor of the inning was very good. Going after the hitters with good stuff and not nibbling.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#444233) #
Nice to see the white uniforms.
uglyone - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#444234) #
oh hey schneider is playing that's nice.
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#444235) #
Two-run single off a RHP power pitcher (admittedly a bit of a lucky hit, but credit to Schneider for hanging in and putting the ball in play).
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#444236) #
Much better luck for the Jays here at home! Let’s hope it keeps up!
greenfrog - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#444237) #
Good pre-game observation by Gerry that Guerrero Jr. and Bichette were starting to make better contact.
Four Seamer - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#444238) #
Nice play by the $15 million man.
uglyone - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#444239) #
All-glove Falefa can't be missing that tag.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#444240) #
Agreed Ugly. Nice job by Berrios locking in and getting those 2 outs
uglyone - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#444241) #
lovely stuff from Berrios today. looks as good as i've ever seen him.
Nigel - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#444242) #
I’ve thought Berrios has looked in point in each of his starts this year.
uglyone - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#444243) #
Biggio staking a claim on 2B tonight.
Nigel - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#444244) #
Yeah, I don’t really see any argument for Biggio not being the near full time 2B on this team.
uglyone - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#444245) #
thoroughly enjoyable home opener, despite the spotty work from the backup bullpen.
SK in NJ - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#444246) #
Davis Schneider in LF, Biggio at 2B, Kiermaier in CF, and IKF/Clement at 3B is clearly the best way to utilize the roster as is. Then Jansen starting at catcher when he comes back. I doubt the club has any intention of benching Varsho so it’s a pipe dream.

Good win tonight. Would be nice to be a good hitting home team, unlike last season.
92-93 - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#444247) #
Schneider says after the game he was working with a short bullpen, but he still took out a cruising Berrios after a bloop single because he reached a magic number. Hopefully making Garcia pitch across two innings doesn't bite them tomorrow.

Fantastic defense from Kiermaier and Biggio tonight. As solid as Kirk is behind the plate, this team could really use Jansen's bat.
Nigel - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#444248) #
Agreed - the defense was excellent tonight. A very well played game all around.
John Northey - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#444249) #
Why do so many hate Varsho so much? By most defensive metrics he was the better CF last year on defense, and on offense.  KK has a 107-194-107 line this year so far, Varsho 133-235-167.  Yeah, both have stunk, but Varsho a bit less.  Generally KK has been seen as a pure defensive CF, Varsho showed some power in Arizona and no one knows why that vanished here yet.

Going forward, if I was going to bet I'd bet on Varsho over KK.  I'd be mixing in Schneider vs all RHP in LF (sit KK or Varsho depending which is expected to do better vs that pitcher) and select RHP (ones with poor high fastballs).  Put him in at 2B whenever possible and move Biggio to 3B - sit IKF once in a while for crying out loud - he has never hit and shows no real signs of that changing.  I liked how they brought in Varsho to run for Schneider late, then take over in LF.  No reason that can't be done with IKF or KK.
Nigel - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#444250) #
I don’t hate on Varsho. I love everything he brings to the table except his offence. As you point out John, the biggest issue is that there is significant redundancy with two outstanding defense but offensively challenged OF’s playing every day. I’d choose Varsho over KK too over the long term. For 2024 I think it’s a coin flip who would be better. Right now, I don’t think the best lineup has both Varsho and KK in it.
uglyone - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#444251) #
I think the issue is with Varsho seemingly having a guaranteed every day spot when he probably should be earning his playing time like most of the rest of the guys.
dalimon5 - Monday, April 08 2024 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#444252) #
Waveburner - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#444253) #
Chad Green makes me nervous. Buck loves to say that Green is all the way back, but in his peak years he sat 96-98 touching higher. Now he is sitting 94-96, a significant drop.

Considering what they are paying him they need him to be his former elite self to be worth it, not just a good/average reliever.

I don't understand what has happened to Kirk as a hitter. He should be a very good hitter based on his pre-2023 performances. Hopefully he gets it going again, he really can't be a groundball hitter with how slow he is.
hypobole - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#444254) #
Question that was not answered from the Yankees thread.

Has any team ever made the playoffs in the same season that they posted a -17 run differential over any 10 game stretch?

A team made the WS last year that lost 9 times with a -25 run differential in a 10 game stretch. I think it happens far more often than people realise.
Michael - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 03:07 AM EDT (#444255) #
I thought that question from the other thread was sarcasm as obviously that sort of 10 game trend would happen to many, many teams. A better question might be how many teams have never had a season with a 10 game stretch with -17 run differential. My SWAG guess is you'd only have 10-15 such teams a decade.

Also, I think there should have been an error given to IKF for the missed tag. I think that is a routine play for a major league 3rd baseman when the throw beats the runner by that much. I don't see anything in the rules for error that says failing to make an obvious tag can't be an error (but I also don't see examples of that as an error), but it seems like it should be treated as an error.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#444256) #
I personally expect this season to be a grind like most seasons. A big winning streak now would make me change my mind because we would have one of the best early records in the league. Last season was an example of a grind. We lost many very close games. This year we have been no hit and 1 hit already so no/low scoring is in play. But we scored enough and had the chances to sweep NYY but the timely hit was available multiple time but never happened. This years O still has Vlad and Kirk but will they have a better year? Bo may not have the fantastic season like last year. Will IKF have a better or worse season than Chapman's 2023 regarding O.

I think fans complaints will likely get less if we have a very good season like 95 wins. If only 88-92 wins I expect as much or more complaining from the fans. I believe this is the sad reality of fandom. I am looking forward to a nice losing streak by NYY and Boston so that I can get a better understanding of fan psychology.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#444257) #
The Yankees are red-hot.  Pittsburgh, too.  The White Sox and Miami have 1 win apiece.  Everyone else is crowded in the middle.  It's nice for Toronto to play indoors for a while.
scottt - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#444258) #
That was a very enjoyable game.

That bloop single from Schneider that scored 2 runs came out of nowhere.
We need more of that.

IKF had a good game offensively, a double, a single, 2 7-pitch strike outs, the second on a ball far outside. I don't think you can gave errors on tags. The runner can dodge the tag, so the ball being there early doesn't mean anything, especially now that they fielders are not allowed to block the bag anymore.

I don't mind solo HRs in late relief. It's the walks that bother me.
It's OK to challenge the hitters, otherwise, there will be walks.

hypobole - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#444259) #
I'm more inclined to agree with Michael on the IKF non-tag. Think of a ground ball going through an infielders wickets. It's an error. It could have taken a bad hop. In that case it it's not an error. In this case the runner didn't try to avoid the tag. It was just a routine play that was not made.
smyttysmullet94 - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#444260) #
Thanks for the article links to the discussion on pitcher injuries, Magpie. It's an interesting dilemma. Not much has changed since Passan wrote his book several years ago; we still don't really know what is causing the injuries, although the likely culprit seems to be the max-effort Velo chase. Here's an idea - when analytics gained mainstream attention, the idea that pitchers used to "pitch to the score" was widely derided. Why would anyone do that? Well, it seems that many (most?) pitchers did indeed used to do that, because they weren't incentivized to strike out every batter with the highest possible Velo. They were incentivized to pitch a complete game and get the W. Those incentives no longer exist. Lindbergh's suggestion that pitcher rosters be reduced further might be the way out of the never-ending quest for max-effort Velo and the resulting injuries, and a return to longer outings by SP.

Or maybe there's another culprit we aren't seeing.
Joe - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#444261) #
This quote from James Andrews seems very apropos:
"I started following the injury patterns and injury rates in the year 2000," Andrews says. "Back in those days, I did about eight or nine Tommy Johns per year in high school aged and younger. The large majority of Tommy Johns were at the Major League level, then the Minor League level, then the college level and then just a handful of high school kids.

"In today's situation, the whole thing is flip-flopped. The largest number is youth baseball. They've surpassed what's being done in the Major Leagues. That's a terrible situation."

Andrews says the obsession with velocity and spin at the youth level is having a devastating impact on arms and the game itself.

"These kids are throwing 90 mph their junior year of high school," he says. "The ligament itself can't withstand that kind of force. We've learned in our research lab that baseball is a developmental sport. The Tommy John ligament matures at about age 26. In high school, the red line where the forces go beyond the tensile properties of the ligament is about 80 mph."

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#444262) #
So do I have post a really negative assessment every time for them to win? Seems a little tiring.. :-)
Anyone else notice Buck's game summary (after the last out) yesterday: 8/9 batters got a hit, IKF with 2. And I'm almost screaming at the TV: what about Davis Schneider?!? (he also had 2 hits)
Glevin - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#444263) #
I'd like a KK, Varsho, Schneider, Biggio rotation for 3 positions vs RHP depending on matchups and who is hot. Would also sit Turner occasionally vs RHP and play Turner or Biggio at 3B sometimes. Plenty of ABs to go around for everyone.
AWeb - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#444264) #
I think the only way to limit speed and spin is to have an actual team penalty on pitcher arm injuries ('likely impossible and bad ideas follow). Lose a roster spot for two weeks? The opponent gets to choose your starter? I don't know how, but without a stronger disincentive to the teams, they're going to keep making and breaking them.

Whats-his-name Texas signed throwing 99 mph average...of course his body can't maintain that. Ohtani pitching seems similar - too hard all the time breaks you. That's "supposed" to be the extra bit for emergencies. Hicks is starting this year, i'll have to check in to see how his velocity is going.

By far the greatest reliever of all time didn't throw particularly hard. The second best threw a knuckler. With the amount of training and practice guys can do now, having a good mix of pitches should be an option for one inning. Starters don't generally 'establish the fastball' for a few innings, they come out throwing offspeed immediately. I think someone like Bassitt could be a great reliever.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#444265) #
Some very good insight here from Verlander on pitching injuries and what can be done:

Making teams lose their DH for early pulls seems like a good idea.
Glevin - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#444267) #
"Making teams lose their DH for early pulls seems like a good idea."

Yes, forcing pitchers to go extra innings in order to preserve the DH is going to be great for pitcher health.
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#444268) #
"Making teams lose their DH for early pulls seems like a good idea."

Seems like a recipe for disaster - are you going to let a pitcher throw 65 pitches in an inning to preserve your DH?
92-93 - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#444269) #
Or you can just lose the DH to protect your pitcher's health (which is rarely the reason for pulling an SP).
John Northey - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#444270) #
A few radical ideas to extend pitchers careers...
  • Allow them to be pulled and brought back in ala in spring, once over 25 pitches in an inning
  • Put a limit on how many 95+ MPH pitches can be thrown in an inning by a pitcher, once over that limit all 95+ pitches are automatic balls. Thus forcing pitchers to throw less than max effort all the time - could be a minors only rule, forcing more development of secondary pitches thus making pitchers better when using the less stressful pitches.
  • Change what the ball is made of/weight/grip - so when hit it won't go as far, but less stressful on the arm, not sure if this is possible, but needs to be looked at.
  • Find a way to get pitchers throwing more before they ever become pros - that way their arm builds up before growth is done and adapts, my best guess as to why with pitch limits, game limits, etc. we seem to be seeing more injuries than ever.

Thinking about it I'll need to do a study on pitchers by year born - how did they do pre-age 30, post 30, etc. See if there is a clear pattern or start date for changes. We all have assumptions but what is the reality?
John Northey - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#444271) #
Fast check got me, most IP pre age 30 career starting post 1919 (so live ball era only) - Don Drysdale, Bert Blyleven (both in the 2800's), 2500+: Catfish Hunter, Hal Newhouser, Robin Roberts - so those are 5 pitchers, one who started in each decade from 1930's-1970's who reached 2500 innings pre age 30. Top for the 80's was Fernando Valenzuela (2325.6), the 90's Javier Vazquez (1840.2), 00's: Félix Hernández (2259.3), 10's: Mike Leake (1439.1), 20's: Brady Singer (498.6).

Obviously the 10's and 20's have time to change, but all others are set in stone. Félix Hernández was viewed as an oddity at the time, but CC Sabathia also cracked 2000, and Clayton Kershaw nearly did (1929.9). The others with 1750+ IP by age 30 who started in the 00's were Rick Porcello, Madison Bumgarner, Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, and Jon Garland. I see a study forming out of this quite easily. How did they do pre-30, and post-30? Are there common elements? etc.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#444272) #
Schneider gets another start tonight. Against a RHP again, too.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#444273) #
A whole generation of pitchers has been taught to pitch a particular way. It's going to be like getting an ocean liner to turn around.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#444274) #
Past 1 Calendar Years Stats

* RF Springer: 693pa, 105wrc+, 1.8war/650pa
* 1B Guerrero: 688pa, 112wrc+, 0.9war/650pa
* SS Bichette: 597pa, 117wrc+, 3.5war/650pa
* DH Turner: 628pa, 120wrc+, 1.4war/650pa
* LF Schneider: 161pa, 175wrc+, 8.5war/650pa
* C Jansen: 285pa, 125wrc+, 5.0war/650pa
* 2B Biggio: 353pa, 104wrc+, 1.7war/650pa
* 3B Clement: 78pa, 132wrc+, 6.7war/650pa
* CF Kiermaier: 414pa, 96wrc+, 3.9war/650pa

* PH Vogelbach: 313pa, 109wrc+, 0.4war/650pa
* OF Varsho: 578pa, 78wrc+, 1.8war/650pa
* IF Falefa: 381pa, 89wrc+, 1.9war/650pa
* C Kirk: 434pa, 92wrc+, 3.3war/650pa

soupman - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#444275) #
imo, and from any data i've seen: supination is a MUCH bigger risk factor than merely throwing hard. fastballs are more of a strain on the shoulder than the elbow. everyday players long toss. sometimes they have labrum issues, but it's mostly guys that throw sliders (or breaking balls they spin by turning their pinkies to the ground).

i think verlander hits the nail on the head: it's no single factor driving shifts in pitching. there are many things involved, and it would be a mistake to think that PEDs are not also part of the story.

i also think that it's something the league and owners are not going to be incredibly concerned about because it will likely lead to lowering the overall cost of pitching as established players are replaced with replacement-level or young prospects. from a labour stand point, more guys like jay jackson will get life changing money that will pay off years of sacrifice and hardship...i don't think it's an entirely terrible thing (because the success rate of surgery is now so high as to be virtually routine).

i think that the likelihood someone's body breaks (or does not) is probably more genetic than anything. with the success rate of labrum surgeries - it's probably better for teams to simply account for these risks with how they structure deals via innings incentives and so on. the top FAs will always get guaranteed big money, but i'm sure the Jays would have preferred to have some more financial wiggle room last year to deal with Ryu being out, for example.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#444276) #
Wow - Story is going to have season-ending surgery on his shoulder.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#444277) #
Thumbs up to the line up choices tonight. I would generally favour ABs to Clement over IKF, but IKF had a productive night at the plate last night (although a bit fluky) and rewarding that production makes some sense.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#444278) #
One nice thing about starting Schneider in LF is that it allows the team to give ample rest to other players who need it (like Kiermaier). This is the case tonight, with Varsho starting in CF.
Magpie - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#444279) #
George Kirby is Josh Towers throwing 96.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#444280) #
Terrific AB by Springer.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#444281) #
What an inning of good ABs against a really good pitcher.
electric carrot - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#444282) #
I think this kid Ned Flanders has something. (I mean Schneider.)
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#444284) #
Agreed, Nigel.

Also, good to see John Schneider deploy the running game. Sending Varsho multiple times from first may have helped distract Kirby in B3.
Gerry - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#444286) #
I expected Castillo and Kirby to be better. They were aces in the past but both seemed lacking in ace stuff this trip to Toronto.

I am not taking anything from the offense, I just expected closer scores.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#444287) #
Six shutout innings from Bassitt, 101 pitches. Great job. Schneider did well to show confidence and let him close out the sixth.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#444288) #
David Schnieder is Mike McCoy with 20 HR power.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#444289) #
It’s so nice to see Bassitt come out for the 7th at 100 pitches. That’s what scoring some runs can do for you.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#444290) #
OK, now I’m confused…why is the manager letting Bassitt throw over 110 pitches with a significant lead over a weak-hitting club?
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#444291) #
Turner has been impressive so far this season.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#444292) #
I’d probably let Kiermaier run for Turner here, even if I was using Clement for Biggio.
krose - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#444293) #
SSS, but reinforcements might be available.
Robertson: 500/579/1.250. 3HR, 3 doubles, 16 AB

Horwitz: 379/538/1.055. 1HR, 1double, 29AB

Barger: 286/390/847. 1HR, 3doubles, 35AB
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#444294) #
Green playing with fire by walking the #8 hitter.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#444295) #
First series win of the season.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, April 09 2024 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#444297) #
Oakland 4 - Texas 3 - Final score.  A's catcher Shea Langeliers hits 3 home runs, including a go-ahead 2-run shot in the top of the 9th inning.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#444299) #
More good than bad so far this year.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#444300) #
Haven't seen the two games at home. How does Vladdy look?
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#444301) #
I watched yesterday's game. The team played well overall. Vladdy was overaggressive at the plate, often swinging at anything close to the strike zone. He needs to be more patient on pitches that he can't do much with.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#444302) #
The team slash line of 216/313/352 is not pretty, but not far off the AL average 233/309/374. A slow spring start for hitters, as is usually the case.

The pitching, on the other hand, is not close to average. A 4.94 ERA vs. league average of 3.69. A FIP of 5.81 (!) thanks in large part to a league worst, by far, HR/9 of 2.0.

Much of this team's fate lies with Gausman being healthy and effective. His next start could be highly informative. And the 5th rotation spot might be problematic but that could be said for most teams.

Lots of season to go. Too early to make any judgements. Quick quiz: who leads the team in RBI? Kirk, with 7, on 6 hits. He has not scored yet.

James W - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#444303) #
Davis Schneider also has 7 RBI.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#444305) #
Davis Schneider also has 7 RBI.

Oops, thanks. So the RBI leaders are a guy hitting .162 and a guy with 22 AB.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#444307) #
You may not care about things like batting average and RBI, but the guys on the field still do.
scottt - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#444309) #
Another good game. They sent Bassitt for a record high number of pitches because they don' t trust half the relievers. Pearson didn't even warm up despite not having pitched since April 6 and not allowing an earned run in 4 outings. Cabrera hasn't done well, but he's faced 17 right bats and 7 left ones. It's absurd when Jays face teams that field 5 or 6 left bats.

Today it's Kikuchi's turn. Watch out for Cabrera and Mayza to be used when the left hitters are on the bench.

3 hits from IKF. He's having very solid ABs. He's taking borderline pitches early and protecting the plate late in the count. He also runs well and can take a base.

Clement needs to start today. Vogelbach too but Turner is hitting too well to sit.
I don't think Turner at 3B with a lefty on the mound is a good idea.

Bo's homerun was off a breaking ball well bellow the knees.

The Mariners are not a bad hitting team, but they have hit lots of HRs and strikeout a lot, despite trying to move away from that by getting Polanco. Rodriguez has been a very streaky hitter. They just haven't found their timing yet.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#444310) #
Shapiro decided to congratulate himself for making (and losing) the wildcard series.

mathesond - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#444311) #
That picture isn't very clear - where is his name?
Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#444312) #
A quick google discovers the Rays, Mariners, and Phillies have also hung wild card banners.

Shapiro is not the root of all evil.
Michael - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#444314) #
It makes sense to hang a wild card banner as the banners are for reaching the post season. The expanded post season is still the post season.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#444315) #
Very early yet but Matt Chapman is 9/49 for a .184 average. I like Chapman but the signs of a decline were showing last season. He could get hot yet though. Whit Merrifield is 3/17 and Otto Lopez is 3/6 in limited action.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#444317) #
The lineup today is one of my minor irritants with the way the team is currently being run. On its face it makes some sense as a way to rotate Varsho, KK, Schneider through the LF/CF positions (Varsho and KK have both had a night off in the first two games of the series). But Gilbert has extreme reverse splits. RH's generate, in particular, vastly more extra base hits than LH's against him. Couldn't they have found a way to sit one of Varsho and KK today in favour of Schneider and handle the rotation with this in mind? It's a minor thing, but it's all sort of unnecessary.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#444318) #
"That picture isn't very clear - where is his name?"

there's a full size nude portrait of him on the back.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#444320) #
Varsho, Kiermaier and Biggio are a combined 2/17 (with one home run) in their career against Gilbert.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#444321) #
Banners for playoff years are perfectly normal. Up until 1992 the Jays only could put up banners for making the playoffs. 1992, 1993, 2015, and 2016 are the only years they won a round in the playoffs so yeah, you could just hang those 4 or you could include 1985, 1989, 1991, 2020, 2022, 2023. I think putting 2020/2022/2023 on one banner makes sense and keeps it from looking silly. Do they have 85/89/91 on one as well this year (all win the AL East, lost in round 1 which then was the ALCS).

Guessing there is no banner for Robbie Alomar's number anymore (#12), just for Halladay (#32). Hopefully they retire #19 for Fred McGriff someday (5 years here, 2 top 10 MVP finishes, HR title - so strange he never made an all-star team while here though).

Btw, HOF'ers who were Jays - barely Jays: Niekro, Winfield (massive impact for 1 year), Rickey; 2-3 years: Rolen, Morris, Thomas, Molitor (thankfully - no 1993 WS win without); Toronto a significant part of their career: Bobby Cox (obviously Atlanta a bigger part), Fred McGriff, Robbie Alomar, Roy Halladay.

Possible Future HOF'ers: Clemens (2 years here), Jeff Kent (1 year), Omar Vizquel (1 year), Mark Buehrle (3 years), Russell Martin (4 years), Troy Tulowitzki (3 years), David Price (1 year) - the last few are really stretching it but each has a shot if the ballot is very weak (it will be) and the guy has 'veteran presence' that writers love (most do). Tulo and Price are pure peak candidates, Martin a 'leader' candidate, Buehrle is a 'really good for long', Vizquel has thankfully dropped drastically (I don't see him as a HOF'er). Kent & Clemens fell off the ballot, but the vets one never knows what they'll do (especially after putting the joke called 'Baines' in, no peak, not solid long term, just hung around the White Sox and their owner loves him).
Gerry - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#444322) #
Danny Jansen will DH in Buffalo today and could catch on Friday. That looks to me like he will be back next week.

Romano and Swanson will pitch for Buffalo tomorrow, weather permitting.

Manoah is scheduled to pitch for Buffalo on Sunday.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#444323) #
The RH bats in the lineup with a history against Gilbert (Springer, Bo, VGJ, Kirk) are 14/39 (.359) against him with two home runs.

All of which suggests that Nigel is on to something.
scottt - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#444324) #
Day game after a night game. It's normal to rest some guys and play guys who have been sitting.
On the plus side, they have Schneider on the bench to pinch hit once they bring a lefty.

Springer is 4 for 9 against Gilbert. Guerrero 4/10. Bichette 3/13. Kirk 3/7.
Turner has never faced him. Neither has Clement.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#444325) #
" Open up! Open up! Open up the Dome! "
Nigel - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#444326) #
I don't think that I'm on to anything earth shattering his career numbers just tell a very simple story. Gilbert has the most extreme reverse splits of any starter that I can remember looking at. He crushes LHHs and is significantly below average against RHHs.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#444327) #
25-year-old Schneider has had lots of rest this season. I don’t see why he would need to rest after playing yesterday.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#444329) #
Wes Parsons has been traded to Cleveland.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#444330) #
For $250 K International Bonus Pool space. Better return than I thought he would bring.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#444331) #
Varsho bumped down to 9th in the order.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#444332) #
I think the Jays would be nuts to give Manoah anymore major league starts until he puts together at least a half season of sustained success in the minors.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#444333) #
Yusei! My goodness! Let it eat!
Magpie - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#444334) #
Wes Parsons has been traded to Cleveland.


For what? A ride to the airport?
Magpie - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#444335) #
Gilbert has extreme reverse splits.

Most of that is from 2022. He had a reverse split in 2021, based mostly on RH batters hitting with more power. He had a huge, enormous reverse split in 2022 - LH batters were pretty much helpless. But last season he really didn't have much of a platoon split at all.
Ducey - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#444336) #
"For $250 K International Bonus Pool space. Better return than I thought he would bring."

Thats 10 Gabby Moreno's!

Excellent deal.
scottt - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#444337) #
Toronto's pool this year is $5152200.
Cleveland's is $7114800.
They will probably not miss $250 000.

Petey Baseball - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#444338) #
Alejandro Kirk playing himself into a backup catcher role.....which is probably fine, but starting more than once or twice a week once Janssen comes back wouldn't be optimal.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#444339) #
Man. Gilbert is cruising. 58 pitches through 5.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#444340) #
Does Varsho have options remaining and/or can he be sent down? I really think that should be an option for the team right now. The underlying numbers, the eye test, literally everything point to him being broken and needing to be fixed. That shouldn't happen at the big league level if there's a way to avoid it. They already have a CF with basically the same skillset on the roster. Just demote Varsho, try to fix him in the minors, and roll with Schneider in LF full time.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#444341) #
I wouldn't be against demoting Varsho, but he's very nearly 28 - sometimes players are what they are. Maybe more importantly, I'm not sure that there is an obviously better replacement in Buffalo.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#444342) #
damn vladdy destroyed that.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#444343) #
Good to see (on Gameday) Yimi pitching well.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#444344) #
I don’t know how you can demote Varsho while Kiermaier is doing so poorly.
His OPS is .273 and he has a 43% K rate. Demoting Varsho would make the offense worse.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#444345) #
That PA was a great example of Vladdy trying to do too much. Swinging at a 2-0 slider in on the outside corner at the bottom of the zone is a terrible swing decision. He had a chance to go 3-0, since the pitch was bordeline. I don’t get it.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#444346) #
The one thing that I think that you could make a decent argument for is moving Biggio up in the order, probably to 2nd, to get his OBP in front of Vladdy, Bo, Turner. It also would break up the 4 consecutive RH's at the top of the lineup. If Valddy and Bo were crushing it then you like them 2nd and 3rd, but they're not.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#444347) #
Disappointing AB from Clement, swinging at two balls instead of waiting for a pitch to drive like Vogelbach.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#444348) #
I would have thought IKF was likelier to slap a single than Vogelbach, whose game is homeruns and walks.

Mayza just ain't right. Could an IL visit be in his future?

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#444349) #
Frances Farmer will have her revenge on Seattle.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#444350) #
On the one hand, this was the first time the absence of Swanson and Romano felt like a large problem. Yeah, Mayza isn't right at the moment.

On the other hand, if you only score one run you're probably going to lose. They saw three outstanding starters in this series and the Law of Large Numbers suggests that one of them would bring his A game.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#444351) #
Good to see (on Gameday) Yimi pitching well.

He looked even better on the TV. I thought he was throwing much harder last season than he did in 2022, and now? Since when does he touch 99?
John Northey - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#444352) #
The 9th bugged me to no end - why Schneider PR instead of IKF? IKF is by far the better baserunner, then save Schneider for when you need him. If the 9th was done differently you'd have Schneider there to hit for Clement - yeah Clement has been great but Schneider is the better hitter and more likely to work a walk but instead he was standing at 3B gathering dust. Mix in the mistake of playing KK and Varsho instead of having Schneider in LF today - either of them would've been ideal as the PR in the 9th. I think someone needs to remind John Schneider this team is short on offense, not defense.

So now what? We have some issues in the pen - Mayza isn't clicking, Cabrera has fallen apart too. Mix in how Francis seems to have forgotten how to pitch and there are clear issues. Gausman hasn't looked good, hopefully it is just 'dead arm' that all pitchers go through in spring, but his shortened spring might have pushed that into the season. On the bright side - Mitch White has been acceptable for the 8th man in the pen (today was asking too much from him), 2 save opportunities both converted by Green, 2 holds (1 each Richards & Cabrera) none blown. For offense Turner, IKF, Schneider, and Biggio are all hitting as well or better than hoped for. Vogelbach has been pretty much as advertised. Vlad & Bo seem to be getting on stride, Clement & Springer OK but not great (1 really good game could change that as both are in the 600's for OPS), while Varsho, Kirk, and KK all have sucked. So frustrating to have a solution for one of KK or Varsho in Schneider who keeps sitting, Kirk's solution is coming soon hopefully if 'Glass' Jansen can just not get hurt for a bit.

So I'd say the #1 need is a LH reliever who we can count on as Mayza and Cabrera aren't that right now - they might be soon based on past performance but right now neither is. Brendon Little is in AAA, on the 40 man (has 3 options), and has 4 shutout innings so far (1 hit, 3 walks, 6 K's) - not a perfect solution but might help short term. I doubt it'll happen though even though Cabrera and Mayza have options left, as do Espino and Pearson.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#444353) #
It sounds as if Schneider (John) should have just started Schneider (Davis) in LF in this game. That might have produced a win before extra innings.

Was the decision not to start Schneider a manager decision? A front office decision? Or a "collaborative" one? Even after the Berrios fiasco, it's still not clear how lineup and on-field decisions are made in this organization.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#444355) #
you'd have Schneider there to hit for Clement

Hmmm. It's doable. Kiner-Falefa to second, Biggio to third, Varsho to centre, Schneider to left. Vogelbach has to stay in the game at first base, and it's been a while, but I'm sure he remembers how.

But while Schneider has been a more productive offensive player than Clement it's mostly because he's got a whole lot more power than Clement. The game situation didn't require power. All it required was a single. I don't know that Schneider's actually a better bet to deliver that.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#444356) #
Honestly, when Jansen, Swanson, and Romano come back... send down Kirk and Mayza to work out their issues without hurting the team. They both have options.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#444357) #
And Danny Jansen hits a grand slam for Buffalo.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#444358) #
As noted, the Jays took on a tough trio of starters this series and generally came out ahead. Games like today happen, but one early trend is that when facing a starter who is rolling the batting order has shown very little pushback, working counts etc. This is at least the third time this year where a Maddux by the opposing started seemed possible fairly late into the game.

Mayza looks injured to me.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#444359) #
I guess it is good the issues so far are fairly solvable.
  • LF/CF horrid offense - use Schneider more
  • C horrid offense - Jansen should be back very soon
  • IKF has actually hit decently so far, as has Clement and Biggio so no issues at 3B/2B.
  • 1B/SS superstars are starting to come back to normal
  • Berrios/Bassitt/Kikuchi all solid so far mostly, Gausman not so much but his late spring might explain it, Francis a disaster but hopefully Espino and/or White can cover him, and maybe Manoah comes back but I'm not counting on it
  • The pen is mostly good, no blown saves, Pearson has a 0 ERA so far, but the LH side has sucked rocks (Mayza and Cabrera) but with their track record that should clear up soon with any luck.
So for a 6-7 last place team the Jays aren't too bad (they'd be 3rd in the AL West, 2nd NL West). I see lots of reasons to be optimistic.
JohnL - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#444361) #
Retiring #19. A case good be made to do it based on the combined performances with the Jays by McGriff, Molitor & Bautista.

And about former Jays in the HOF. John N: you missed the one with the longest tenure here: Gillick 18 years.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 10 2024 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#444363) #
scottt - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#444364) #
That was Cal Raleigh commenting on Schneider saying "He's not very tough to pitch to when you execute." Which was an answer to a directed question.

The real issue is that Mayza looks to be in the same situation as Manoah.
Potentially worse even. Mayza's velo is down. Furthermore he's not able to command his pitches because he's used to throwing them with higher velo. With time he will probably get the command back, but the lost of velo will still reduce his effectiveness. Mayza has 2 options and less than 5 years of service time, so a demotion is possible. He's under control for another year.

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 06:47 AM EDT (#444365) #
If John Schneider is dismissed, then Mattingly would be the obvious replacement.  Anyone else would be a surprise.

A field-manager is often disliked by his own team, but earning a reputation among other players on other teams?  Is that based on his hollering from the dugout?
Magpie - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#444366) #
"He's not very tough to pitch to when you execute."

As his career .216 average would suggest.
Chuck - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#444367) #
As his career .216 average would suggest.

If Schneider intends to now speak truthfully and candidly rather than measuredly and diplomatically, as is his and other managers' wont, the inane post-game press conferences could start getting interesting. Finally.

This needlessly glib answer, especially about a player who has owned his team, seems to me to suggest that Schneider is feeling some heat and is annoyed about continually being second-guessed.

James W - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#444368) #
And somehow Cal Mountcastle err Raleigh has successfully used this as fuel to be the best hitter in baseball when playing Toronto.
James W - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#444369) #
The comment in question is from April 2023, so probably is not at all related to whether or not Schneider currently feels heat or second-guessed.
Nigel - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#444370) #
Chuck I think the comment was from last year, but your other sentiment is correct. While true, managers in any sport just don't say "so and so sucks and its our fault that he's beating us". Raleigh is rightfully salty but I'm also not sure that it extrapolates to - many players in the league have a problem with Schneider.
Nigel - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#444371) #
Coke to James
scottt - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#444372) #
If John Schneider is dismissed it's probably going to be for a lack of offense.
The obvious replacement in that case would not be the "Offensive Coordinator".
That would be like promoting the hitting coach to manager because the team is not hitting.

At least, he waited until the 10th inning to use Mayza.
I don't have an issue with that other than Mayza sucks right now, but it's not like there was an obvious guy to bring out at that point.

Not being liked by the players on the other teams is not a negative in my view.
Just watch your own manager.

Chuck - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#444373) #
Chuck I think the comment was from last year

Ah, my mistake. That's what I get for only half paying attention. I assumed the comment was a defense of pitching to Raleigh in the 10th yesterday.

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#444374) #
Bringing in a new voice (an outsider) would be logical.  John Schneider was an internal candidate when he took over for Charlie Montoyo.  There was concern at the time that Schneider wasn't a new voice, but a key contributor to Montoyo's decision-making.  So, that change seemed like a lateral move.

Don Mattingly being promoted to manager creates the same issue of making a change without really doing so.  Although, that might be considered the "safe" move, as Mattingly has a lot of experience.  Another first-time manager probably won't satisfy the mob.
Glevin - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#444375) #
The Jays are 6-7 with maybe the hardest schedule in baseball so far. Why are we talking about firing the manager?
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#444378) #
I think it goes back to the playoffs and the decision to pull Berrios. It was either a stupid decision by Schneider or he was influenced by the front office before the game and he followed that guidance despite what was actually happening on the field. I would say a lot of people lost faith in him then, if they hadn't for other decisions he made during the 2023 season.
Magpie - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#444380) #
Why are we talking about firing the manager?

For the same reason the sky is blue? This is the Nature of Things.

Well, every team loses a lot of games. And every manager makes many, many decisions that don't lead to a happy ending. So they have it coming, all of them.

I actually think Leafs fans are far more upset about the coach than Jays fans are about the manager.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#444381) #
New York Post: " The amount of money that Shohei Ohtani’s longtime interpreter Ippei Mizuhara misappropriated . . . is allegedly much more [significant] than previously realized. Mizuhara has been charged with bank fraud by federal investigators after allegedly transferring over $16 million from Ohtani’s bank account . . . "
Cracka - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#444385) #
I just read the entire complaint against Mizuhara and the evidence is overwhelming. I'm now 100% confident that Ohtani was not involved and had no knowledge of gambling or wire transfers (which seemed unlikely at first). Gambling addictions are very scary.
John Northey - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#444386) #
If the Jays did change the manager (and I don't see that happening anytime soon) then I agree it should be someone from outside, ideally with WS titles on their resume.

Recent WS winners...
Active: Bruce Bochy (2023,2014,2012,2010), Brian Snitker (2021), Dave Roberts (2020), Dave Martinez (2019), Alex Cora (2018), A.J. Hinch (2017),
Retired: Dusty Baker (2022), Ned Yost (2015), Tony La Russa (2011, 2006, 1989), Charlie Manuel (2008), Terry Francona (2007, 2004), Jack McKeon (2003)
Inactive: Joe Maddon (2016), John Farrell (2013), Joe Girardi (2009), Ozzie Guillén (2005), Mike Scioscia (2002), Bob Brenly (2001)

Not a lot of choices who are not managing now or so old that it'd be silly to consider them. Farrell strangely is still reasonable but I can't see that happening. Maddon is getting old, Guillen is a 'oh god no'. Brenly I don't know why he never got a second chance (only managed 3 1/2 years) unless there was a scandal I've forgotten. Really, none jump out at me as 'oh yeah, lets get him'. I'd have loved them to grab Bochy but I suspect he wanted to stay in a certain location and Toronto wasn't it.
Gerry - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#444387) #
Swanson and Romano are pitching for Buffalo today and could be activated as soon as Saturday. Whose spots do they take?

Espino is a definite.
Mayza, if he goes to the IL, would be a simple answer.

If Mayza stays, who is the second player dropped from the roster? I believe Mitch White is out of options. Nate Pearson has an option. Pearson has a zero ERA whereas White's is 4.50. However their WHIPS are similar.

The Jays FO likes to conserve assets so I assume Pearson and his zero ERA will be optioned.
Gerry - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#444388) #
Neither Swanson or Romano could get through an inning today. They were pulled after 17 and 18 pitches respectively.

Swanson gave up a couple of hits, Romano walked a couple and also had a hit off him.
Magpie - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#444390) #
Brenly I don't know why he never got a second chance

He surely had other qualities I'm not aware of, but Brenly was the worst game manager I've ever seen.
John Northey - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#444394) #
That is possible - I didn't pay attention to his team back then, outside of during the World Series as that was a fun one with Randy Johnson & Curt Schilling being amazing. Normally if a guy wins it all he gets more chances than that even if he isn't that good. The team in 2004 got off to a horrid start with him (29-50) but was worse for the next guy (Al Pedrique 22-61, end of his managing career), then was sub-500 under Bob Melvin the next season (he got 4 1/2 years with 1 playoff appearance followed by 11 years in Oakland, 2 in SD, now in SF).

Lots goes into hiring managers. Most is stuff we'll never know. I still don't get why Cito never had a shot with anyone but the Jays as he clearly had the Billy Martin touch - both times he came in part way of a season, both times the team drastically improved for the rest of the year. You'd have thought someone else would've given him a veteran team to run after 1997 at some point, but they never did. Meanwhile we see other guys with worse track records get chance after chance (Jimy Williams a good example). Heck, if I had a team of kids I'd look at Charlie Montoyo as he clearly did something right taking a hopeless team in 2019, making the playoffs in 2020, nearly doing it again in 2021, and was in a playoff slot in 2022 when fired. Not saying he was great, but he was handed a team that in '18 was 73-89 and lost 95 his first year here with Trent Thornton getting the most starts (yikes).
scottt - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#444395) #
Pulling Berrios had no impact on the result of the game.
That's a decision that didn't go particularly well, but Montoyo did the exact same thing with Shoemaker against the Rays and the result was similar. The offense did nothing.
Both Kikuchi and Berrios are looking better than last year so far.
The offense still looks suspicious.

Mattingly is in charge of the hitters.
Wasn't  Demarlo Hale in charge of the running game in the days?

scottt - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#444396) #
White is there to eat innings when needed. They need him regardless, especially if Gausman is having issues. Cabrera  has one option left, like Mayza. Mayza doesn't look like the guy who was dealing last year. Cabrera still has his stuff and should figure it out faster, but I wouldn't hesitate to send one or the other to Buffalo for a couple of weeks.

Cabrera and Mayza have been the worse relievers so far. They both have options.
I don't see any reasons to have both up at the same time. Bullpen lefties are useful only if they are trusted to pitch in late innings. Mayza has been used 7 times but has only gotten 13 outs and has a WHIP of 3.

Mayza is the only reliever with a loss so far. It's going to be interesting to see what Francis does against Colorado. This isn't a series they can afford to lose. I think they give him a bad game plan in Houston.

mendocino - Thursday, April 11 2024 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#444397) #
Shi Davidi@ShiDavidi
Yariel Rodriguez is being called up by the Blue Jays, as

He’s thrown 6.1 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts in two outings at Buffalo.
Katie - Friday, April 12 2024 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#444399) #
Farrell strangely is still reasonable but I can't see that happening.

YMMV, but I don't want Farrell anywhere near this team. I don't know why this hypothetical manager would need to have a World Series win on their resume, but Farrell spent his entire second year here making puppy dog eyes at Boston and couldn't leave fast enough. He hasn't managed since he was fired by the Red Sox in 2018. I wouldn't give him an interview.

Brenly I don't know why he never got a second chance (only managed 3 1/2 years) unless there was a scandal I've forgotten.

As Magpie said, he was an atrocious in-game manager. The Diamondbacks won more in spite of him than because of him. Brenly wanted to continue managing; there are several articles from the mid 2000's through the early 2010's about him wanting another opportunity, but other teams seemed to view him similarly.

As for Schneider, I think he has time to rebuild his reputation with the fans if things go well this year, but the fans around me at the ballpark during the opener made it very clear at every opportunity they hadn't forgiven him for last year's playoffs.

ISLAND BOY - Friday, April 12 2024 @ 04:53 AM EDT (#444400) #
Yes, Katie, and it was clear when Schneider came out to pull Berrios in the that home game as there was loud booing. It wasn't that the fans thought Berrios should stay in, because he was clearly out of gas, but because they were remembering the playoff game.

And for those who say it didn't make any difference in that game, well, who knows? The game could have stayed 0-0 through 9 innings and the Jays might have won in extras. As a manager, you have to give the team every opportunity to win and I don't know that Schneider always does that.
Gerry - Friday, April 12 2024 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#444401) #
What is the plan for Yariel Rodriguez? In his two minor league starts he has thrown around 50 pitches. If the Jays plan to use him as a starter then he will need plenty of backup.

If he is going to be used as a reliever, maybe Tim Mayza is going on the IL and neither Romano or Swanson are ready? Maybe someone else is hurt?
bpoz - Friday, April 12 2024 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#444402) #
I don't know if Schneider is making all the decisions. We see him execute a decision that he was probably instructed to make. The on field managing/coaching staff of the 1970s and 80s had a phone hanging on the wall which probably was not used to get advice from a strategy department. Cox had success in Atlanta probably without a strategy department but he did have good SPs like Glavine and hitters like Chipper and Andrew Jones. Cito in Toronto did his own thinking I believe. He had success but still got heat from the media.

I think the starters are pitching longer this year so far. Gausman should get back in form hopefully. Francis & White are probably contributing as expected I suppose. The pen is not yet at full strength. Vlad, Bo & Kirk are being given time to get their hitting sorted out.

The season should be a long grind with no team winning a playoff spot in April or May. NYY great success with 1 run wins and Baltimore great success with comeback wins which is a very nice thing to happen.
scottt - Friday, April 12 2024 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#444403) #
Schneider makes the decisions the same way hitters decide to swing or take pitches.
They prepare for it. They have a plan. They try to execute.
Both have teams of coaches and assistants to help make those timely decisions.
It seems like people here would like to have a manager that post on social media but doesn't talk to his coaches. Berrios has had difficulties with lefties and got hit hard the third time through the order. The plan was to bring Kikuchi to face the lefties in the middle of the lineup and face the top once. If they wait for Berrios to get in trouble, they cannot use Kikuchi who is a starter and takes forever to get ready.

Certainly, he could have kept Berrios, but if Berrios loads the bases, that's probably the end of his managing career. Accountability is not the same thing as not making the decisions.

scottt - Friday, April 12 2024 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#444404) #
I hope it's not because Gausman was topping at 90mph on his bullpen day.
dalimon5 - Friday, April 12 2024 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#444405) #
My view of Schneider changed at first when he pulled Gausman in the 6th against Seattle in 2022 wild card game followed by his decision to pitch to Santana with a lefty. I never liked both of those moves combined with leaving Tapia in LF. I felt it was a lot of bad decisions that another manager might have avoided and could have saved the game.
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