Projection systems are marginally better than using the Magic 8 ball.

Olney is saying Soto will decide in about 10 days and that the Jays are a distant third. Sounds like they have the money but Soto wants to stay in NY.

Hopefully in 10 days the distraction is ended and Atkins can focus on other players.

Agreed on the 10 day thing - the sooner the better, if he ain't coming here I hope Soto picks the Mets as the Yankees work too good with him/Judge/Stanton as a core.

With no Soto what is plan B? Seems from reports it is Fried, Santander, Adames. Lets look closer.

• Fried: 2021-now fWAR: 3.7-4.9-1.9-3.4 entering age 31 season, projected at 3.2 for 2025, his FB velocity is higher now than any other time in his career. IP '21-'24: 166-185-78-174 (misssed May/June/July in '23 due to strained left hamstring, then a strained left forearm. Sucked in the playoffs though (5.10 ERA lifetime, last 3 years 3 starts 9 1/3 IP 12 ER).
• Santander: 2021-now fWAR: (0.2)-2.3-2.6-3.3, switch hitter entering his age 31 season. Mostly a RF, but has time in LF. Defensive stats at best are 'meh', could be seen as negative.
• Willy Adames: 2021-now fWAR: 3.1-4.4-3.3-4.8, seems pretty steady 3/4 WAR guy. Entering age 29 season. But he did all of that but 77 innings at SS, those other innings at 2B. Just 10 games at 3B in the minors, all in 2013 at age 17. Hrm. Still, worth digging into as he'd only be at 3B for a year most likely as I'd be surprised to see Bo re-signed post 2025.
• Corbin Burnes has also been mentioned: 7.5-4.6-3.4-3.7, entering age 30 season. Seems solid. IP have been 190+ from 2022 onward. Damn tempting too, just like Fried. Healthy, strong, consistent.
• Blake Snell is another on the list: 2.1-3.6-4.2-3.1 looks solid, but IP are 129-128-180-104. When on the mound he is damn good, but he isn't on it enough. A very scary one to sign
• Teoscar Hernández we all know: 4.0-2.9-1.9-3.5 going into his age 32 season (when many sluggers collapse historically). I'd be very, very nervous about this one, as much as we all love him. I'd be surprised if he doesn't stay in LA though.

The rest of the free agents are mostly 'meh' imo. They could be good, and I'll probably get at least a little excited about signing anyone (more fun than being disappointed). But right now these are the guys I see as ones that could get people in general excited in some way-shape-form and who could move the needle a bit at least. 1 starter, 1 hitter is my expectations right now. Plus, of course, a few relievers but those are such crapshoots I wouldn't want to predict anything. Well, beyond the Jays probably getting Yarbourgh and Garcia back - those moves should be cheap and useful at the back of the pen at the very least. My personal favorite to chase is David Robertson who at age 40 will probably only get a 1 year deal at a reasonable price - thus ideal for the Jays - plus has closing experience and setup experience.

Just checked and Will Wagner has a lot of 3B experience in the minors - 74 games, 629 innings so he should be able to handle it if Adames comes here and is put at 2B. Sadly Jimenez only has 1 inning at 3B in the minors, Schnieder 914 innings at 3B in the minors, just 17 in the majors. Of course, Clement could be mixed in with Wagner at 3B and be moved around as needed (safe to say Bo will get a fair amount of time off in 2025).

So signing Fried-Santander-Adames would be sweet and cover off pretty much all the needs. Not perfectly, but decently.

What is the cost for those 3? Via MLBTR

• Fried: 6/$156 mil ($26 per)
• Santander: 4/$80 mil ($20 per)
• Adames: 6/$160 mil ($26.7 per)

Net: $72.7 per year for 4 years, $52.7 for 2 more, about $20 mil over the estimated budget without touching the pen beyond putting Rodriguez there. Hrm. Guess we'll see what happens and what the real budget is as time goes by.

There's a lot of interest in Adames and the price reflects that he play either SS or 3B.

Wagner's arm is short for 3B which is why Houston and Toronto played him at 2B/1B. With Bregman a FA, Houston likely wouldn't have parted with Wagner if they at all thought he could hack it there.

I don't love Santander but at least he makes sense for the Jays. Adames doesn't to me. Someone will pay him like to play SS.

Agreed Adames doesn't make much sense unless the Jays plan to trade Bo before the season which also wouldn't make much sense unless they think he won't fully recover thus while his value is at an all time low right now it might go to zero by mid-season. And if Bo isn't ready to play do you feel comfortable with Jimenez and Clement sharing SS? On a non-contender they'd do, but if the Jays really want to win they need more than that.

There lies the question and the challenge. Can Adames handle 3B or can Clement and Wagner share it with Adames at 2B for a year, then move Adames to SS once Bo leaves. No idea myself. Not a good enough scout to tell you if Wagner's arm is good enough for part time play at 3B (sounds like it isn't) or if Adames could handle it. Also Adames wRC+ is just 109, 119 last year, peak of 126 in 2020. Great for a SS, nice for a 2B, but just 'meh' for a 3B and this team needs more offense right now. If you are going for defense at 3B mainly then you could just leave Clements there or sign Ha-Seong Kim (106 lifetime wRC+ but just a 101 last year, but has proven he can play 'wow' defense at 3B, SS, 2B, you name it, is coming off an injury so is expected to sign for 1/$12 mil which is very reasonable).

So what is the long term and short term plan? Adames looks good on paper, but where does he fit in? If signed where does Bo go? Do you move Bo to 3B (seems a bad idea with his arm not being the strongest at SS as is - throws at 83.3 MPH vs average SS 86.9 mph). Adames is at 88.2 for comparison. Clement 82.4, Jimenez 79.6. Yet Clement was final 3 for a Gold Glove with that weak of a throwing arm. Barger at 96.6 (RF) IKF 77.3. Vlad averaged 88.5 at 1B, they don't list what he did at 3B (not enough throws) but his arm was never a question. Wagner 79.3, Horwitz 74.9, Schneider 84.5 (OF) 74.2 (IF). The OF tends to have higher velocity - Kiermaier 93.5, Lukes 90.0, Springer 86.8 (might be time to move to LF), Loperfido 85.0, Varsho 83.7. Arm strength found at Baseball Savant btw, for those who want to dig further.

This looks bad. How did it come to this point that they're chasing Soto and dont have their core locked up?

From Ken Rosenthal:

"Perhaps Guerrero is telling the Jays, “Find some players to put around me, and then I’ll consider staying.” Perhaps Soto, Anthony Santander and other Jays free-agent targets are saying, “Sign Vlad Jr., and then we’ll talk.” In which case, the Jays are stuck between a rock and a hard place — an impossible position, but one of their own making.

If you’re Soto, you know this much: Guerrero had a .940 OPS last season and the Jays won 74 games. The Mets, Yankees and Red Sox offer a higher floor. Other teams do, too. You’re going to get your money. And you can get it from a team in better shape than the Jays."

Snell to the Dodgers for a boatload of cash... to throw 120 innings a season... Fried and Burnes prices just went up.

Its 36 million/year. Are Fried and Burnes going to pitch that much more than Snell? Its pretty much exactly what mlbtraderumors predicted and teo years less than what they expect the others to sign for.

Burnes' strikeout rates have been declining and his contact in the zone going up. He's also not a left hander.

No way I'd sign Snell to that deal. 5/$182 mil. Maybe the Dodgers feel their pen and depth will protect them. $36.4 mil a year. Phew. What a rotation - Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Glasgow, Tony Gonsolin, and clear favorites to sign Roki Sasaki. Dustin May on the IL but a damn fine pitcher once healthy too.

Just read it is $160-165 mil factoring in deferrals. So a $32-$33 mil a year deal. Still more than I'd want the Jays to pay for a very injury prone pitcher, but a touch better.

I guess teams are willing to pay big bucks for 100-120 really good innings rather than 170-180 good innings. Even when healthy, Snell is only good for 5 IP per game.

I guess with the evolution of bullpens that makes sense but teams really need to start developing more quality arms that can go 2-3 innings - something the Jays have yet to do other than Francis (briefly). But that's also why I see a lot of value in milb arms like Lazaro Estrada and Andrew Bash...

I think you’re both missing the main point of his value - playoff starts. Snell is getting this money because he’s someone you can give the ball to in game 1 of a playoff series and expect to win. The Dodgers aren’t worried about making the playoffs or how much bulk they get. They want impact players for the playoffs.

I think the real takeaway from a Jays fan's perspective is that there is early movement here, and hopefully the Jays are announcing a trade or a free agent signing soon.

Yeah Snell is on another level on playoffs and when locked in is unhittable. I wonder if the forward thinking Dodgers go to a 6 man rotation.

The Dodgers are up to a 110% tax penalty. Also they still have lots of injured starters.
They will use a rotation of whoever's healthy which might or might not be Snell. 
At any rate, the Jays only play them 3 games a year.

Snell is great when on and healthy, but that is barely over half the time. I'm guessing between Snell and Glasnow they hope to get 1 full time starter. Both rarely go over 130 IP (last year was Glasnow's first time over 130 at 134). Yamamoto threw just 90 IP last year, and Ohtani, of course, threw 0 IP. Hmmm.... can see why they signed a guy but boy Snell sure fits into that 'lets hope he is healthy come playoffs' category. You'd think they'd chase someone who can actually throw 200 IP at a half decent level just to give their pen a break. Glavin Stone led them in IP last year but is out for a chunk if not all of 2025 due to injury. Boy the Dodgers sure do chew up their arms don't they? Or do they just go after high power and when they blow out it is a meh for them.

None-the-less, Snell is going to cost them over $65 mil a year when you factor in the payroll tax. Yikes.

Seems to me that LAD is financing poor teams with their Luxury tax payment. I wonder how much TB and Pittsburg get from the league. TB makes the playoffs often enough and Pittsburg is in their playoff window with the arrival of Skenes.

"Snell is going to cost them over $65 mil a year when you factor in the payroll tax."

Meanwhile the Ray's payroll is projected to be $78 M. And that includes $8M for Wandering Franco and $2 M retained for Margot.

Genesis to the Mets on a minor league deal.

I would have liked that for the Jays.

Genesis to the Mets on a minor league deal.

No doubt he is happy to be away from the Jays' Land of Confusion.

Snell will be the 37th player on the LAD 40 man list.

Seems a bit early for Genesis to settle for a minor leagues contract.
I suppose he has release options and an agreed MLB salary.
He was making 1.5M last year.

The thing about Cabrera is that he isn't any good and he's never been any good. Was worth giving him a shot to see if you could get more. They couldn't. I'd much rather they try out some other guys than trot someone like Cabrera back out there.

He isn't any good but he was a stand out on this team's bullpen.

"He isn't any good but he was a stand out on this team's bullpen."

No, he wasn't. For Jays relievers with at least 30 relief innings (9 guys), he was 7th in WAR, 7th in K/9 IP, 8th in BB/9 IP, 8th in XFIP. He had a pretty good ERA but that doesn't mean much when underlying numbers are bad.

Provide the numbers of the rest of the bullpen please as a comparison to show how bad Cabrera was against the other options.

Also, what matters more for registered performance? Underlying numbers or actual numbers? I wonder...

There's very little value to me in comparing him to players not on this team. When the competition is Little and you can sign Cabrera to a minor league deal it's excessive to dismiss Cabrera as bad as if there is no place on this team for that.

I literally gave his ranking VS. Other Jays bullpen options and he was near bottom in everything. Go to fangraphs, filter by Blue Jays reliever and look at numbers. Cabrera was bad even for Jays bullpen. Jays sign Michael Stefanic who has hit very well in AAA but never hit in the majors. Like these kinds of minor league signings though. Seems like kind of guys Jays can do well with a potentially turn into a utility piece or something.

Not sure why there is a need to throw Genesis under the bus.

1) As pointed out in the initial post, projections are a guess, at best
2) RP vary widely from one year to the next. He could be great next year (or worse)
3) Its a minor league contract. Getting a guy with an ok MLB track record and good stuff on a minor league deal is a good outcome for the Mets.

It's not projections. Cabrera was bad statistically in almost every way. For relievers with at least 20 innings with the Jays last year, Cabrera was 11/13 in WAR. For relievers with at least 30 innings he was 7/9 in WAR. He has thrown 275 innings in his career with a 4.70 XFIP and 1.97 K/BB ratio. His career FWAR is 0.1. BWAR it's - 0.3. He signed a minor league deal early in the offseason because nobody was going to give him a major league deal. He isn't good and the Jays were right to move on. Kind of baffled how many people think Cabrera was decent because of a flukey ERA.

We don't think he's good we just know that Trevor Richards, Ryan Burr, Nate Pearson, Zak Pop, Erik Swanson, Tommy Nance, Tim Mayza, Mitch White, Jordan Romano, Luis Frias, Yerry Rodriguez, Jose Cuas and Paolo Espino are all mostly worse and that's your current bullpen and on a minor league deal Cabrera would cost less and he's a lefty.

I don't subscribe to WAR as an explain all measurement.

Like any statistic WAR has its useful insights and its limitations. I think with the limited sample size relief pitchers inherently inhabit this is especially true. A couple grand slams in a meaningless moment can obscure an otherwise steady season of work. Or the opposite. Chad Green looked like a bargain until September, for instance.

I think if we’re arguing about Genesis Cabrera for crying out loud, it’s clear we all want the Blue Jays to do something already or make their direction clear, just to know where we are here in the wilderness. Personally I kinda like their chances at Soto more than most (like a 1/5 chance) but I worry they pivot back into their value shopping once that likely doesn’t work out.

They can make some clever buy low moves, pray on some dead car bounces and I won’t be surprised to see the 2025 squad win 83-86 games. Which… I don’t think is quite good enough myself.

(And yes I wrote “dead car bounces” as a typo but screw it I like the visual idea of it)

Well, the Jays got their free agent - infielder Michael Stefanic signs a AAA deal with the Jays. OK, maybe not the big one, but hey it is something. A guy with a 69 OPS+ lifetime but 3 of the past 4 years had a 900+ OPS in the minors (833 the other year). 2B/3B who has played a touch at SS (553 innings) and LF/RF (40 innings) and 61 innings at 1B. Basically a super-sub for Buffalo who might be the next Ernie Clement, and has less than 1 year ML service time thus would be around a long time if desired. Solid AAAA acquisition imo. You always need a few of these, and sometimes they actually help the ML team (see Clement - 50 OPS+ pre Jays, 100 since coming here, negative bWAR pre, +4.5 here in 168 games) although the vast majority never get called up, let alone help the ML team.

Stefanic is essentially a Clement starter pack, as mentioned, albeit with less athleticism, less versatility, less power (believe it or not) and has zero minor league options left. Ernie at least had two option seasons left when he arrived... I'd also feel better about trying to turn Stefanic into something useful if Matt Hague was still here... Probably some insurance for when Leo Jimenez or Orelvis Martinez gets traded.

Ugh. A 5'9" 2B with no power and inflated PCL numbers. He hit less than .200 vs RHP.

I guess he could play vs LHP, but as he has not played SS in forever he isnt a fit as the infield sub.

A minor league deal, so fine. But I'd like something more to dream on than that.

Too bad Davis S can't get his stuff together and hit LHP. He would be a good platoon with Wagner/ Horwitz at 2B. Right now that looks to be Jimenez.

Yeah, don't see Stefanic as more than AAA foder to be honest, but it is fun to dream of what could be rather than on what is.

Speaking of which... if the Jays were to make a Big Deal ala Fernandez/McGriff for Alomar/Carter what would it be?

My bet is a Vlad/Bo mix of some kind (perhaps with a starting pitcher) for someone big or a couple of big ones - wonder if San Diego is frustrated with Tatis Jr after the PED suspension and 2 solid, but not 'WOW' years mixed with the $313 mil they still owe him. Doubt it, but who knows eh? They'd also want to clear out Xander Bogaerts I'd think ($229 mil owed and he had a 1.2 bWAR season last year). SD gets 2 young stars who have just 1 year of control/pay owed for 2 big long term contracts getting off the books. Manny Machado is also on that expensive list $316 mil still owed and is entering age 32 season. Yikes. It'd be a short term for long term deal, allowing the Jays to not worry about bidding wars. Vlad/Bo for Tatis/Machado - $629 mil is a LOT of money, but it'd cover RF/3B for a long time while SD has to deal with no real local TV deal - 40k subscribed to their streaming option - it was $99 for the season, so $4,000,000 raised - yikes, that is nothing. They had a $60 mil/year deal before the big US TV bankruptcy hit - so a loss of $56 mil a year roughly (before factoring in other revenue from games on local TV that MLB sold without figures released, or costs of producing the games). Getting Vlad & Bo would give them a year to figure it all out before needing to negotiate/lock in new contracts. I wouldn't expect it, but it is fun to speculate.

FYI: for teams desperate to cut costs I'd first look at all the ones who have no TV deal - MLB will broadcast games for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres - meaning their games will be streamed mostly which won't raise enough to pay for 1 solid reliever let alone a Soto type. Also the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals are on the margins and might need to have the same status, as are the Seattle Mariners. 6 more teams had their deals most likely cut in size as part of the bankruptcy hearings - Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays. That would explain the Cardinals talking about cutting payroll which is unusual for them to be open about. The Florida teams are always in trouble though.

The Angels clearly didn't worry about it, nor will Atlanta or Detroit I figure as all 3 have strong fan bases thus probably got decent deals still. Gotta figure most of these teams won't be in the deep end of free agency though, and will be looking to clear payroll if possible, but most likely short term payroll not long term (sigh... so much for my Tatis dream).

Something that I realized this morning is that this FO is working with the same budget as last year, roughly 40 million to spend. Last year they came away with Turner, IKF, Kiermaier and Rodriguez which was apparently their plan B or C.

If this offseason comes to that same point where plan B and C are the options left then I would advocate blowing it up.

BNS thinks Severino, Pederson and two bullpen arms is more realistic.

Thanks dalimon5 for the info. I did not know last years plan B & C. The KK part of that plan was the most flawed as I felt that KK was not the answer to a stronger offense. Bo being bad and a lot of injuries to the pen is also what I think hurt the team.

For 2025 I see the pen as still a big weakness. Atkins does not have to rush fixing the pen but he should sign/trade for 2-3 strong relievers by the end of the year.

Our D is fine IMO. CF: Varsho with Berroa and Class as backup CFs. The trade deadline improved the Offense because KK, Turner and Vogelbach were let go. Also Bo never recovered. It seemed to me that the O did not suffer.

We have a lot of position player depth. Only C is in danger of becoming weak if Kirk goes down.

That leaves out the need for an outfielder with some pop, regardless of defense. I don't think Pederson wanted to come here last year so I doubt he changed his mind.

Spotrac has the Jays as having $44M to spend before they get into the tax ($241 M).

The big mystery is whether they will exceed the tax. Presumably they would for Soto. Whether they will for other players is unknown.

If I were them I would exceed like last year. If they are on track to make the playoffs then their masters will forgive paying a little tax. If they are not on track for the playoffs, then they can trade a bunch of players at the deadline to duck under again.

One noteworthy factor is the CDN $ is taking a hit and may really take a hit if Trump follows thru with tariffs. Not a comfortable position if you are paying $200M+ US$ for salary and most of your revenue is in CDN $. This is a recent turn of events that may cause them to adjust spending.

BNS and Davidi had a chat yesterday on Sportsnet which was interesting. Looks again like jays have separate budget for Soto but obviously unlikely to get him. If not, they say "But for all the talk about Soto, a more likely outcome for this off-season would appear to be something like this: $15-20 million for a starting pitcher, $10-20 million on a hitter and $5-10 million on bullpen help — moves likely to come later rather than sooner."

That looks like something like Manaea/Flaherty/Pivetta, O'Neill/Conforto and one of the closer guys. I'd assume a trade or two as well, especially for bullpen guys. Would that help? Sure. Would it make the Jays contenders? Doesn't feel like it. Really hard to understand the team direction at this point. Signing Vlad should be priority #1. Morosi said he thinks Vlad wants $350M which seems very doable(do 12/$360 and call it even).

The exchange rate risk is an under-rated concern. The Tariff Man may only be stating an opening position (or mistakenly included Canada in his late-night Adderall "Truth" post) in advance of the 2026 renegotiation of the USMCA (NAFTA was a better acronym), but youneverknow.

Also not to be underestimated is the projected soft oil demand on top of a decline in the AB oil sector through the decade's end. Oil will not level the playing field (a la the 2010s) in the exchange rate; Rogers probably has economists on the staff caring about this, and the NHL needs to address this problem (and different local tax rates) and the disparity between CA and US teams (but they probably won't).

All told, this could make for a tough future 5 years for fans of Canadian teams and the Jays/Raptors.

"Signing Vlad should be priority #1. Morosi said he thinks Vlad wants $350M which seems very doable(do 12/$360 and call it even)."

Morosi has lost his credibility. I don't think Vlad would sign a 10 year deal less than 40 million/year. Maybe a 15 year deal he would agree to 35 million but that changes the calculus to 525 million instead of 350 million...

Of course, for every situation the Orange one has a statement - he now is also talking about devaluing the US dollar so they are more competitive. If that happened the Jays could be in a very good position. Very unpredictable. A shame the US decided on chaos, but what can you do.

The Jays just need to work as best they can - assume the dollar will more or less be in the low $0.70 US range and if it climbs or drops adjust as needed. A collapse means trading big salaries and trying to be the Rays/Guardians/KC/etc., a climb means they can sign anyone they want (ah for the at par dollar - last seen January 2013 (from 2007-2013 was around there every year, but the Jays didn't fully take advantage outside of profit taking).

As to realistic targets....

• If $30 mil limit: forget big guns, we're chasing pieces. No starting pitchers, most going to a hitter (not the biggest names, but a sub $20 mil guy like Jurickson Profar [3/$15 per], Tyler O'Neill [3/$17], Joc Pederson [2/$14], etc.) plus a reliever or two (those will be sub $10 mil each) or a 'meh' starter who can eat innings ala Luis Severino [3/$16], Patrick Corbin [unk]) FYI: year/salary estimates from FanGraphs (being lazy and just using one site for everything today).
• If $50 mil limit: OK, now we're talking. Santander [4/$20] and Fried [5/$25] plus a bit of pen help from the bargain bin.
• If Soto signed: I suspect they'd need to agree that they will spend an extra $50+ on more help - so Fried and lots of pen help, or maybe Fried and Adames [6/$25].

So some options but it all depends on budget. To open space they could do other deals. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Bassitt dealt if they sign Fried or another starter ($22 mil there), if anyone would take what is left of Springer off the Jays hands they'd be very, very happy ($24.2 per for 25 & 26). Can't see Gausman, Bo, Vlad, being dealt unless some 'wow let's change the whole club' thing happens. If they say 'screw it, we quit' then Green ($10.5) & Swanson ($3), are on the table (final year pre-free agency). The pre-FA team is Vlad/Bo/Bassitt/Green/Swanson with Kirk/Varsho/Gausman/Springer post 2026.

IMO a smart move might be to sign Varsho long term this winter if possible. Same with Kirk.

I would take that "$10-20m for a hitter" and put it into pitching.

Steamer projections:

* 1. SS Bichette (27): 613pa, 117wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 2. 2B Wagner (26): 336pa, 118wrc+, 3.7war/650
* 3. 1B Guerrero (26): 663pa, 154wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 4. DH Horwitz (27): 546pa, 123wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 5. C Kirk (26): 419pa, 120wrc+, 6.1war/650
* 6. RF Springer (35): 660pa, 109wrc+, 1.9war/650
* 7. LF Roden (25): 118pa, 110wrc+, 2.2war/650
* 8. 3B Clement (29): 339pa, 102wrc+, 2.9war/650
* 9. CF Varsho (28): 654pa, 101wrc+, 3.2war/650

* X. UT Schneider (26): 375pa, 104wrc+, 2.1war/650
* X. OF Lukes (30): 198pa, 105wrc+, 2.0war/650
* X. IF Jimenez (24): 83pa, 99wrc+, 3.1war/650
* X. C Clarke (27): 25pa, 86wrc+, 2.6war/650

* X. UT Barger (25): 176pa, 103wrc+, 2.2war/650
* X. OF Clase (23): 90pa, 85wrc+, 0.7war/650
* X. IF Martinez (23): 222pa, 96wrc+, 1.8war/650
* X. C Heineman (34): 184pa, 76wrc+, 2.5war/650

* X. OF Loperfido (26): 303pa, 84wrc+, 0.2war/650
* X. OF Berroa (26): 13pa, 81wrc+, 0.0war/650

other guys not projected for any playing time but whose stats the projection systems like at least a bit for offense at least:

* OF Schreck (24) 101wrc+
* 3B McAdoo (23) 90wrc+
* 1B Nunez (24) 87wrc+
* IF Kasevich (24) 85wrc+






Ok so i take it back a bit - i might spend that $10-20 on a hitter....but that hitter should be able to play C. I.e. we should be targeting Jansen.

Other than that i don't think it's a wise investment to overpay for a mediocrity when it seems like we have solid depth of mediocrity already, but the younger kind of mediocrity where there could be some upside left too.

Boy does Steamer look optimistic about the Jays there. Starting 9 30.9 WAR/650 for the starting lineup with the bench at 9.8/650 for the 4 of them. So 13 players net 40.7/13*9 = 28.2 WAR for the 9 man lineup (650 PA per slot) roughly or enough to be #5 for team batters/fielders in 2024 (Jays were 11th at 22.7 in 2024). That 6.1/650 PA for Kirk really jumps out doesn't it? That is MVP territory if he could play 150+ (which he won't).

Basically Steamer projections say only Springer among the top 13 isn't a ML average player (2.0) while 2 guys in the next batch are 2+ guys in Barger & Heineman. That is nuts. If that is the real level then focusing on adding a high end starting pitcher and building a pen is the route to go even though everyone is going 'add offense'.

I wouldn't just add up a rate stat like war/650 exactly like that John, but there's no doubt that the projections will think the jays have pretty solid depth throughout. I doubt Zips will look much different when it comes out.

Of course if Bo and Kirk are permanently toast then the projections take a massive hit. And of course with so many unprovens there you got lots of variance and it could turn out badly again. At the same time, there's no real reason to think the projections would be biased in favor ofall the jays players, so you'd think the variance should balance out for the most part.

And that's a risk i'll take with our current roster. I'd gamble on the projections there, because the pitching has many more and bigger holes imo.

So 3 guys who can generate offense it seems...Vlad, Wagner and Horwitz. Let's see how this goes...

I’m pretty frustrated by the how the CBT doesn’t reflect salary inflation for star players. It’s one thing in basketball where your star players can play 75% of a game, so paying them 30% of your cap amount makes sense. It makes no sense in baseball.

These massive salaries will only generate more roster churn as teams cycle through lower cost options while trying to jam in these impact players at the top end. I don’t think that’s better for the product.

Remind me why we're worried Kirk might be "permanently toast"? Didn't he finish the season on a high note (best month-by-month OPS in Sept/Oct of 747)? Did he get injured right near the end and I forgot about it?

WAR is also strange as contracts seem to be based on WAR value but the WAR value has weakened as the average or replacement level of performance has gotten worse.

Thanks UO for the Steamer projections. I admire your unemotional attachment to the numbers. ie may be better or worse. However when you say pitching: Part 1 is the SP and part 2 is the pen. Do people agree with me that the SPs are OK/good and the pen currently is bad?

Shall we consider S Davis/Clemente/Horwitz as veteran "kids" and the others based on playing time down to Orelvis as "young" kids. There is a difference but I am biased in favor or Roden and Kesevich because they have passed all the tests without failing yet.

A personal favorite is Barger currently capable of 20 Hr optimistically and in future working towards 30 Hr. I could be totally wrong. Especially if he has a cement glove to go with an inaccurate power arm.

My mantra is play the kids and lets find out.

Let’s assume the Soto to Boston rumour circulating is true.

Let’s assume their plan is to go after Vlad. What pieces from their system would the Jays want for a year of Vlad?

I think this is moot because the front office simply can’t let that happen and keep their jobs. I guess my take is that the franchise needs Soto to sign here or we’re probably lay looking at another lost decade - especially if they refuse to actually rebuild again. There’s no Vlad in the system this time.

Read that Boston upped their offer - but noteworthy that he has hit only 216/356/487 at Fenway. 268/444/561 at SkyDome, 283/400/579 at Yankee Stadium, 333/466/709 at the Mets park. Wow. I don't see the Dodgers pushing their payroll to the high $300's but if they do, he has hit 286/390/557 there. I'm guessing he is planning 1) to maximize cash and 2) maximize his HOF chances. For that the Mets are the favorites imo. At this point I'd be quite surprised, happily so, if the Jays win out in the end. Of course, winning might be losing given the size of contract he'll get.

In 15 years $50m a year will likely be what we think 20 million is today. Kind of ridiculous for grown men in pyjamas playing a kid's game...but...here we are.

Just looked at Twitter (been avoiding it) and it looks like Boston fans are having their 'he is on a plane' moment. A big difference is Soto might stretch this out for another week or two, while Ohtani only tortured us for a couple more days.

Ohtani only tortured us for a couple more days

Just like with the Kawhi Leonard saga from earlier, it was not the players that were doing the torturing. It was the fan bases torturing themselves.

Well, the fan base tortured itself because of one or two BBWAA members confirming that Ohtani had either signed or was on his way to Toronto. That's when smoke turned into fire for me, at least!

If those figures by Ben Nicholson Smith are accurate about how the Jays are going to allocate their available payroll, then the org is going to regret not starting the rebuild now. I don’t even know what the best case scenario would be there. Santander ($20M), Eovaldi ($20M), and cheap bullpen pieces? If they decided to go for it in 2025 then that’s fine but the only way that makes sense is if they are flirting with the 2nd CBT tier (with or without Soto). If it’s status quo with the payroll then I’m not sure what they are doing. They didn’t seem to have any urgency to shed 2025 payroll at the deadline (seems like it’s no guarantee they even finished under the CBT as MLB is apparently still calculating it) so having to go cheap in certain areas would be very disappointing if true. I guess we won’t know until we see the first transaction, which could be another few weeks from now (hurry up and sign, Juan!).

Fun local trivia: Former MLB closer Fernando Rodney signed with the ICBL Hamilton Cardinals for next season. Hopefully he travels with the team when they play the Leafs at Christie Pits - you don't usually get to see former MLB all-stars at these games.

Marcus Knecht and Rob Butler are all-stars in my heart.

What Joe said happened to me as well. I got fooled by the Ohtani hype.

BNS and Davidi having a chat is ok by me as long as some of their content actually comes true. If not they are just fishing with bait that is fiction which will lose me completely as a reliable source. $10-15mil for SP probably not a good SP. $10-20mil for a hitter means a good hitter for 5 years who will age badly like Springer IMO. $5-10 mil for relievers is ok if 2 @$5mil is the outcome (2 Y Garcia types) we need good depth. $15 + 20 +10 mil = $45mil. So maybe we stay under the Luxury tax penalty hopefully.

"It was the fan bases torturing themselves."

solid working definition of the word "sports" right there.

Agreed on fooled by Ohtani as it seemed most of the major media bought into it at the time so I did as well. Damn it would've been nice. Now we're all a lot more cautious about the Soto hype. If he comes, great, but I doubt any of us expect it or even feel that the odds are high. I was hopeful early on but as it goes on I feel the odds are high he'll be a Met.

As to signings - It is fun to speculate the other options, but really looking at what is here and the budget I'm only really expecting a couple of relievers and maybe a slugger who'd DH mostly. Most signings coming in mid-January or later when players are getting desperate. Santander, Adames, Bregman, Burnes, Fried are all fun to dream on but odds are low the Jays get any of them unless this front office is very desperate in which case I'd rather they go all-in on Soto and Vlad. Bregman I see as high odds of being a 'oh crap what did we do' deal quickly. Now, one year deals are rarely nightmares - they only screw the budget for that one year - so Kim, Yates, Robertson, Jansen (reliever), Conforto - all land in the 1 year or max 2 situations for various reasons (injuries, age) and will be around $10 mil each give or take. All could help the team in 2025. None will make the difference between WS title and last place, but all could help. Those guys are ones I can see ending up here - one or two, not 3+. I get a feeling this winter will be a lot like last one. Sadly the rebuild probably won't be as quick as the one after 17/18 were write offs too late. No Vlad/Bo coming up this time (we all love Arjun Nimmala at SS and he could climb fast, but that is a best case - more likely is 3-4 years. Tiedemann, Bloss, and Yesavage could all be solid rotation members or blowouts ala Pearson. Orelvis Martinez could be a star or flop (PED decision). We'll see. We will see.

"If those figures by Ben Nicholson Smith are accurate about how the Jays are going to allocate their available payroll, then the org is going to regret not starting the rebuild now."

Vlad is the key. He's young enough where even if you are rebuilding for a few years, signing him makes sense as he can be the elite player that carries you through and is still great when you can compete again. He'd bring back a big enough package where trading him could make sense to get a couple of great prospects/young players to jump-start a rebuild. The one move that makes no sense is holding on to him and letting him walk which seems to be the plan right now. The Jays will have a ton of financial flexibility opening up after this year but also means they need long-term players at so many different positions. Free agents after 2025 are Vlad, Bo, and Bassit. After 2026, add Gausman, Kirk, Varsho, Springer, and Berrios if he opts out.

It isn't that the core isn't good enough, it's that right now, there is no core. Who is under contract for 2027+? Berrios (if he doesn't opt out) Manoah, Clement, Francis, Horwitz, etc...Maybe the front office surprises, but it just feels like that instead of a plan, they are desperately trying to compete without being able to.

There is no evidence that the plan right now is to let Vladdy walk after this season. If they're in on Soto, there's no reason to think they won't be in on Vladdy, even as a FA.

Extending Vlad (or re-signing him after he tests free agency) is really the only option that would make the current course of action make sense. I'm willing to give the FO this winter to see if there is an actual method to their madness, but if it's just aimlessly spending money in order to sneak into a Wild Card spot in 2025 and dealing with 2026 when it happens, then they chose the most directionless avenue possible. If the team acquires a controllable player or two in a trade that will stick around in 2026-27, then it starts to open things up a bit, but I can't imagine trading for this organization will be easy given the state of their farm system.

If the front office is absolutely determined to overpay for someone, then I think the best chance they have at a difference maker (WAR potential of 4.0 or more) is probably Bregman. The Jays success in free agency has essentially come down to offering more years than any team is willing to offer (Springer, Ryu, probably Bassitt, Kikuchi, etc). Teams are going to have a limit to how many years they'd want to give Bregman at age 31, and the Jays have a much better chance at getting him by tacking on an extra year than they do of competing with more sexy big market teams on front line starting pitching. If they consider Santander an impact FA, then he's a strong possibility as well, but from a WAR standpoint he isn't one.

It's no accident that all the major contracts are up in 2025 with a few leaking into 2026. Which coincides with front office contracts and was no doubt the deadline to build a winner. This is a make or break year for the front office. But in reality, they're nowhere near ready to compete in the AL East. The rebuild will likely happen in 2026 but it should have started last year if more people were being realistic.

What's going to happen now is that the front office will make some foolish moves, sacrificing whatever future assets the org has (ie Leo Jimenez, Kendry Rojas) in a desperate attempt to be competitive and pad resumes. And every player on the roster has now (for the most part) lost value and won't get back nearly the returns needed to kickstart a rebuild.

I agree, and I think if (which is to say WHEN) the Soto pursuit fails, it will be time to replace the front office before they make moves out of desperation.

I do not think that internal promotion is a wise option.

Two things:

You guys are too down on this FO and "missing their window."

If first rebuild failed (with Vlad and Bo and free agents and trades) then why would you believe blowing it up in 2024 or 2025 would lead to something better???

"There is no evidence that the plan right now is to let Vladdy walk after this season. If they're in on Soto, there's no reason to think they won't be in on Vladdy, even as a FA."

It's very different when someone is on your team. It's fine to be in on Soto, it's not fine to be "in on Vlad" because if you lose him, you literally just get some late pick. If you hold on to Vlad, you need to be 100% sure you will sign him because the difference between trading him (at least a couple of top-100 prospects/good young players) and the draft picks is enormous. If you lose Vlad for nothing, it sets back the organization for years for no reason (vainly trying to compete after coming in 5th the year before). Sign him or trade him.

Blowing things up this time would be different because it definitely wouldn't include Atkins, etc.

Last time they refused to rebuild for 2-3 years beyond when it was wise to and this time there's no Vlad to plaster over the ineptitudes.

That's why some of us think it's time to send the middling middle management from the Mid-west back to where they came from.

Soupman:

489–483 (Jays record under AA, 6 seasons)
776-742 (Jays record under Atkins, 9 seasons)

Not exactly waves of talent and success, but you can't argue Atkins has been worse than the Anthopolous' Toronto years.
AA's crew won two playoffs series, though.

I've been critical of Atkins failures and he Shapiro's and annoying communication style, but my main issue with this team has always been their unwillingness to take spending a step further into Dodger/Yankee territory (or close) when they clearly have the resources. I'm willing to give Atkins this year with Rogers fortune to spend unprecedented amounts for this franchise and sign/trade their way to get the Jays back into 90 win and playoff territory next year, and get Vlad signed, and give Bo a competitive offer.

If they miss the playoffs their time is up.

I don't get the fixation with the payroll.
Only Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are signed for 2027.

In 2025, the only expensive players are Guerrero making around 30M, Springer making over 24M, Gausman making 23M, Bassitt making 22M, Berrios making over 18M and Bichette making over 17M on a back loaded contract. Good luck filling a complete roster on the cheap.
Of these, Springer is no longer providing value for the contract. Bichette had a bad year.

The Luxury Tax Payroll and the actually payroll are not the same thing.

Kendry Rojas might never be a major leaguer and Leo Jimenez looks like a fairly average player.
I wouldn't blink on losing those 2 guys for nothing.

AA traded Thor for Dickie and spent his money on a catcher when the team had glaring holes in other positions.

The reason there are no contracts ending in 27 or 28 is because they signed guys on shorter contracts the last couple of years.
They haven't done anything crazy like signing Bregman for 7 years.
They are spending a lot on the rotation. However, that's what all the big market teams are doing.

"Blowing things up this time would be different because it definitely wouldn't include Atkins, etc."

Who is this magic saviour who is going to rebuild differently so that the team can have more success? Please I am very curious. Friedman, Dombrowski? Epstein? Stearns?

Personally, I don't need the front office to communicate anything. In fact, the more they say, the more I'm inclined to think they're incompetent. Actions speak louder than words.

That said: Shapiro came to Toronto saying he couldn't wait to get back into baseball ops and said that the system which had just added Vlad - someone scouts regarded even at the time as a Harper-level can't-miss superstar in the making - was gutted. So, Shapiro's words indicate, contrary to popular belief in these parts that he did not see AA in the same role, and AA left because his autonomy was going to be tested. So, when fans want the buck to stop at Atkins, I think: why? Shapiro wanted the authority and ultimate oversight on these issues, so he should accept the responsibility for the failure of the system he implemented.

So AA left - which was wise because it seems obvious to me that he was being set up to take the blame for the tear down.

Rogers the Younger wanted to bring in guys loyal to him. I see him as the epitome of Kendal Roy types. As far as I can tell he wouldn't make it doing anything on his own, and shouldn't be let anywhere near a real business. Case in point: Beeston is alerted to Rogers' schemes when he called Reinsdorf about replacing Paul. Would Reinsdorf have been a good choice for President? Obviously not. Is Shapiro? Not as far as I can tell.

Let's look at Mark's record. He basically took tracing paper and went over the Red Sox spring training facility they built 10 years earlier. The main difference is that the Red Sox got their partners in Florida government(s) to basically cover their costs. Look at the agreement the Jays signed - Rogers is paying for WAY more. It's not, obviously a huge amount when you look at what Soto will cost, but it's not nothing. So, we *could* call that...what? Is that a 'win'? I don't know. It's not a great deal - but it's done, and it needed to be. So...okay, I suppose it could be worse - I'd love to see some examples of worse deals, I can show you more examples of better ones if you need.

The fact is that everything Shapiro criticized AA of, he has done as bad or worse. The Berrios deal is not looking like it will age well. He has dead money on Springer. We'll see how the rest of the rotation holds up this year, but last year was rough.

The team is somehow near the cap running payrolls AA could only have dreamed of when he was looking in couch cushions pre-2015 for the money to sign a fifth starter. How is that possible when most of the lineup started the year as Buffalo Bisons and I can only name 2 bullpen arms for 2025?

The farm has no Vlad-equivalent in it. The system is full of a bunch of replacement-level guys. The top of the system is a kid coming off a PED suspension and a brittle arm. There simply isn't top-end talent anywhere near the majors...and, unlike 2015, this team has never given fans confidence with a lead, and any deficit has seemed insurmountable. If you watched 92-93 and 2015, then you know what it feels like when the opposite feels true.

AA inherited a team drawing under 2million fans, and left one that sold almost 3.5 million tickets in 2016. That's more than they sold the first year the Dome was open.

This team isn't 1-2 pieces away from competing. They're 3-4 pieces and about 3 dice rolls on relievers away from what we've seen the last 2 years: defence and pitching and trying not to blow the lead, relying on the fungibility and "luck" of which relievers will seemingly refuse to blow games for 3-4 months, and hoping for the best in 1-run games.

I say better to get rid of them before they do more harm than good. I don't trust them to avoid desperation plays like signing Bregman to try and squeak into the playoffs. I also don't trust them to have any concept at all of clubhouse chemistry.

It's not just the roster, although it's a big part.

Last offseason, Shapiro said communication had to improve a lot. I forget what player said it at the end of the 2024 season, but they stated it was still bad a year later.

KK commented how much bettet the Dodgers' advanced scouting reports were compared to he Jays, which supported something I've been crowing about for a while now - the team often looks unprepared heading into series - especially with newer pitchers on the mound.

One of the best things the Jays developed over the past few years was Matt Hague and they let him walk for a still convoluted hitting strategy.

And they're just not good at identifying talent - the DSL pipeline has been worsenthan bad for years, the amateur draft has been mostly a barren wasteland, and there nothing special with signing/trading for pro guys.

One of the big losses for the Jays on the Soto front is that they can't really talk about their rich legacy of developing Latin American players, like the Sox focused on in their pitch, because other than Vlad the Jays have mostly used those players as roster fillers in the minors.

Soupman i'm sorry for whatever personal tragedy Shapiro jas caused you. Sounds like it cut you real deep.

"Who is this magic saviour who is going to rebuild differently so that the team can have more success? "

Springer is signed for 2 years at 48.3M. That's the 15th worse contract in MLB. 
It's better than the Phillies with Castellanos 2/40M and Waijuan Walker 2/36M.

The Yankees have the 11th worst contract (LeMahieu, 2/30M) and the 7th worst contract (Stanton, 3/86M with MIA paying 20M of that).
Boston has the 6th worst contract (Trevor Story, 3/72.5M) 

Rangers have the 5th (deGrom, 115M), 
San Diego has the 4th (Bogaerts, 9/229.5M)
Detroit has the 3rd (Baez, 3/73M)
Colorado has the second (Bryant, 4/108M)
And the Angels are in a class of their own, (Trout, 6/223.2M, Rendon 2/77.1M)

Can we at least wait for the offseason to be over before declaring a failure? My goodness.

Also, firing the management team is quite literally the worst possible thing that this team could do in this offseason. It feels like all logic and reason has left some posters’ minds and just become about settling some personal vendetta.

And to be clear, I’m not saying Shapiro et al are the best or irreplaceable, just that the window to replace them without messing up this offseason closed 5 months ago after the deadline.

If AA was available to hire that would be great news but I don't think that's realistic. I don't think there are many good options out there. If Shapiro and Atkins can make 2025 a success and have a core that lives beyond 2025 in Toronto then they should continue as the other options aren't much better. If they have no core signed past 2025 then they should be let go even if they have a successful season. If they don't have a successful season they should be shown the door before 2025 ends and replacement allowed to start the fire sale.

General declarations of "fire them" and "start the rebuild" and "there is someone better who will do it,"... no research to these posts.

"There is no evidence that the plan right now is to let Vladdy walk after this season."

There is no evidence of a plan at all.

For Vlad there is no evidence they have tried to sign him. They keep flipping him between first and third. I think they have either decided that they dont need to sign him, or that they do not have to make the decision yet.

I have said this a few times, but I think they believe in the maths so much, you have to wonder how smart they are. It seems like they ignore the obvious and do things like dismissively call power in a hitter "low hanging fruit." You just know Atkins has developed an algorithm that he thinks is better than everyone else's.

NHL teams do this every year at the draft. They do all kinds of scouting and rank every player. History shows they would all have done better just using Bob MacKenzie's TSN draft preview. Sometimes the obvious is obvious, Ross. Power in a hitter is a good thing.

On the hitting side the overwhelming characteristic they look for is more BB than K. It permeates their drafts. Heck even the guy they signed this week has more walks than K's in his minor league career. Thats swell but he has no power, cant hit RHP and has little defensive ability.

On the pitching side they seem to believe in the Ricky T model for prospects but have not figured out that having young arms twist themselves in knots trying to please the CPU analysis is dangerous.

So the plan? Well, it seems to have virtually no payroll in 2 years. Thats all they have set up. If that is the plan, then a gold star for that. I can see some benefits but if it was to leave room for Soto or Otani then its a fail. I am not sure who they will have playing for the team.

It seems they want to rely on the farm but the farm system is a mess in all regards, so there is no steady stream of prospects. And they love the fancy dinners than come with feting every big name FA, but cant get them to sign.

I guess we cant expect them to tear down as that would be an admission that they have indeed failed. They have to believe.

But they have failed, and Vlad and Bo will walk. And then we will find out who the new GM is in about a year from now. I hope he or she can take their head out of their spreadsheets and take a look around more than Atkins does.

Agreed 99BlueJaysWay - the Jays, if they want to change upper management, would probably do it in spring or early in the new year after the biggest moves of the offseason would have happened. IF they fail to get Soto or do anything to visibly improve the team then I could easily see Shapiro & Atkins being dumped. Who comes in? No idea. Many possibilities, but which do you go for? A former GM that wants to be a team president? A semi-retired one who wants the job? Recently retired player who is well thought of but may not have the GM or team President skills? I'd be chasing Tampa employees as that team has done amazing things with no budget, or Dodger ones (big budget, big success). But if they do that then we are looking at a tear down and rebuild which will probably be longer than the last one (tear down started in 2018, playoffs reached in 2020).

Funny that nobody has provided any reasons for the player - the guy with all the leverage - to sign. I suppose you all think he's just dying to resign here 1 year ahead of schedule, one year ahead of higher salaries... get a grip people. The FO likely has tried to sign Vlad and it balking at an overpayment with multiple opt out requests. That's a far likelier situation to me than what everyone is saying which is "they don't want to resign him."

Using this logic why isn't anyone asking why this FO doesn't want to sign Soto? Because they know its not up to the FO it's up to Soto and there's no advantage for him to do anything other than wait until the end for the highest and best deal for him. Its no different for Vlad.

Sheesh:

I also wonder if last year's off-season has any impact on Guerrero's interest in re-signing. The Jays were willing to invest $700M in Ohtani, but took their biggest star - and maybe most popular Blue Jay ever - to arbitration over less than $2M on an $18-19M contract. There have been enough accounts over te years of players taking management arbitration efforts personally.

Agreed dalimon5 - it takes 2 to tango as they say and I figure Vlad at this point is waiting it out. If Soto signs then he will be more open to it, if not then why would he? The Jays made a point of trading his buddies (Teoscar, Espinal) in an effort to move away from the fun place it was in '22, to more business like in '23, to depressing in '24. They now have cleared out Biggio who Vlad had played with for years, and there is talk of just letting Bo go at the end of '25 or even trading him.

I suspect Vlad would like to stay just because being a one team player improves HOF odds. But if the team is not making it the right atmosphere for him then why would he stay? Due to that I wouldn't be surprised if they sign Teoscar just to up the odds of Vlad sticking around, if Soto signs elsewhere (as expected).

Ricciardi was fired in the offseason. Happens all the time. But don't let precedent interfere with whatever you believe "logic" is.

Ricciardi was fired October 3rd which is a normal time to change the front office or replace a manager. They also replaced him with someone internal who could hit the ground running. Teams aren't going to change personel December 1st. It just doesn't make sense.

The ideal time to change a front office, imo, is during a dead period - August/September/October (few changes can happen, no trades just waiver wire and call-ups) is the best, then February/March before the season gets going but the winter changes are mostly done (much higher risk of having a lost year, but if it is felt the year is already lost then why not). November/December and June/July are the worst times as those are often the busiest for deals to happen. If it is felt the GM/President team has failed come February 1st I wouldn't be shocked if Rogers decides to pull the plug and put someone new in charge. The new people would have a major challenge but could put their fingerprints all over the club by the trade deadline then.

So when were GM's fired here?

• Peter Bavasi June 18, 1976 (expansion), to December 1st, 1977
• Pat Gillick GM here from December 1, 1977 to October 14th 1994 - took over while already here (Assistant GM)
• Gord Ash October 14th, 1994 to November 14th, 2001, was Assistant GM
• J.P. Ricciardi November 14th, 2001 to October 3rd, 2009 - external candidate after extensive search (remember the speculation was going wild while they debated who to hire).
• Alex Anthopoulos October 3rd, 2009 - October 29, 2015
• Tony LaCava - Interim GM from 10/29/15 to 12/3/15, still here.
• Ross Atkins - December 3rd, 2015 to now.

Interesting that outside of Atkins & Gillick every GM was hired in October or November. Those 2 were early December hires. Bavasi was a special case given the team was an expansion club thus was put in as soon as reasonable. Seems Frank Cashen was the original choice (GM of the Mets from 1980-1991 moving them from a joke to WS winner thanks to some very, very good drafts (Darryl Strawberry '80, Lenny Dykstra '81 plus Clemens who DNS, '82 Dwight Gooden, Roger McDowell, and Rafael Palmeiro DNS, '83 Rick Aguilera, Dave Magadan and Matt Williams (the good one) DNS, .'85 Gregg Jefferies, '86 4 very good DNS no good did sign (inc Olerud)). Sadly for the Mets his drafts went into the crapper when the Jays started to do good (late 80's early 90's). Looking at his DNS you could have a great all-star team though.

2 Canadian GM's here, one great (AA), one nightmare (Ash). I guess they could dump Atkins and put LaCava back in the role easily enough if they wanted (I remember him being viewed as a solid future GM at one time). Timing is right to match when Atkins was put in the role. Could be done as a response to failure to get Soto. I seriously doubt that'll happen though. I'd expect that Shapiro/Atkins will be here through 2025 and if the season is a failure they'll be going at the end of it, maybe putting LaCava in temporarily again until a new President/GM is put in place. If the team makes the playoffs then Shapiro/Atkins will be safe for another year.

I thought Atkins should have been replaced this offseason and I don't have much faith that this front office will make decisions for the sake of the franchise VS themselves right now but the idea that this is some horrible front office in need of immediate removal is absurd. A lot of social media is about generating rage and while we see it most in politics, you can see it in things as insignificant as the blue jays front office too. You see so much misguided rage at every move or non move.

https://www.dailywalkoff.com/

I just came across this game. There is a new puzzle each day. It's certainly more fun than this thread.

Can we agree on three things?

1. The FO is changing meaningfully until at least after the 2025 trade deadline and even then it's probably only Atkins who is the fall guy.

2. AA is not an option. He did not want to be here. The past is past, and it wasn't as rosy as we likely remember. The 2015/2016 (yes, I give him credit for 16) were flawed but successful.

3. Whoever is hired to replace the FO will have their flaws... and some people will likely gripe about AA walking out on the team. If you have legit names with a history of a successful rebuilding record along with scouting directors. That would be a really productive and interesting conversation.

Go Leafs Go!

3.

The Jays ownership has put the team in a tough spot - you have a FO that's in it's last year and probably their top motivating factor is securing an extension which likely means a playoff spot and that may not be in the best interest of the franchise - if this team is treading water come July I don't see a selloff but a selling out of the farm (sorta like AA in 2015) to try to get a WC spot and I can't blame the FO - selling would be helping the next FO and ensuring you walk the plank. I don't think this FO has the budget for a major infusion of free agent talent or the farm system to acquire that talent in trades - So I expect moves around the edges and hope.

I think the team needs to take some chances -As I have said previously, I'd listen and be aggressive in moving Vlad & Bo (I expect no extensions unless full market price paid) - If the Mets get Soto, adding Vlad would create a dynamic duo for years and I think the Mets may pay well in prospects. The Angels have added 2 starters and their GM has indicated that Reid Detmers is not gtd. a spot which likely means he could be acquired at a reasonable price and I like him as a change of scenery guy and he's a Lefty. Brett Batty is probably moving on and is another guy I like as a change of scenery guy and fills the 3rd base spot.

Interesting thought 85bluejay. If no Soto and no big game changers available on the market it might make sense for a reset trade. Lets say it is January 15th and the Jays have failed to sign anyone of note (over $20 mil per) or trade for a 3+ WAR guy. At that point the choice is tread water and hope, con Vlad into a long term deal, or deal Vlad. If another team has a star they want to clear out for a 'team reset' ala the Jays then you could have a nice clean match. Who could that be? Seattle was my first thought but nothing jumped out at me looking at them (best player is Cal Raleigh, a catcher who just reached arbitration, and Julio Rodríguez CF signed through 2029 with 5 player options after that, weird deal and can't see them trading him). They have the need at 1B/DH but I don't see a clean match.

What about Arizona? They had a frustrating year. But their star is a kid signed long term (Corbin Carroll), Eugenio Suárez at 3B is solid but not a guy I see Atkins wanting (170-200 K's a year normally to go with 30 HR power). Again, no clear matchup.

Took a brief look at the Giants, Cubs, and others but no real matchups that fit imo. I'm sure the Jays have ideas that I'm not seeing. I hope they do at least. SD has always looked tempting - Jays eating cash to get top quality from them, but SD isn't super-desperate yet.

Moving Vlad and Bo?
There is simply no way this is going to happen.
People worried about the Jays having missed their opportunity to get Vlad...Do you honestly think it's going to be a money issue in te-signing him? It's not. If he leaves, it's because he wants to.

I think that we each have our own opinion about what went wrong with the Jays and when. My opinion is that something(s) bad happened in 2024. Even worse was that the 2024 team was out of contention for a playoff spot before the AS break in early July. I take it for granted but don't know for sure that revenue was bad from July to the end of the season. This was unlike Seattle who competed to the last game in both 2023 and 2024 and missed by 1 game each year.

If the Jays can do in 2025 what Seattle did then that is most likely a successful season with only the fans being disappointed and reacting negatively. The term "meh team" is used a lot with no definition of what it means. I don't use that term but I have decided that 82-87 is "meh". So to me Detroit, KC, Seattle and Minnesota are all meh with Boston and TB just missing.

If the Jays are going to trade Vlad, they need to aim way way higher than Batty who has almost no value at this point. Give me good young players or top prospects as main pieces or don't bother. Something like Bryan Woo and Celesten.

I find it hard to imagine a good Vlad trade without the other team being ripped off - it is for just 1 year after all. Plus, of course, the Jays need value despite Vlad having 2 'wow' years, 1 solid year (4 bWAR), 2 'meh' (the 2's) and 1 blah (2020 - sub 1) out of 6 so far.

Well, now this is getting more interesting. Yankees offer $41 mil plus opt outs. No idea how accurate it is, but at least we now have something to chew on. Red Sox $635 mil over 13 years. Mets & Jays around $600 mil each. That Sox figure is $48.8 mil per year. The Yankee offer includes opt outs at 5/6/7 years meaning he'd be able to be a free agent again at 31, 32, or 33 if he so chooses. Phew. Crazy figures, for sure. Will the Jays match the Red Sox dollars with the Yankee opt-outs? Maybe - I figure they need to if they want him. If so then they are taking massive risk, but maybe it is worth it. Especially if Atkins and Shapiro feel their jobs are on the line if they fail to sign Soto.

Yeah, odds are low still of him coming here, but these figures are interesting. Hopefully he doesn't take the Yankee offer, that is my #1 hope, #2 is not the Red Sox either.

So backup options are closer than ever. I suspect the Jays are in deep talks with a few guys for plan B. Odds are they all know 4 of the 5 finalists will be desperate to make a splash once Soto signs, thus putting those free agents in a great position. They just need to wait. Although one of the other 25 clubs could come in with a solid offer to lock in their top guy before Soto signs too. Fried is the one I hope the Jays get - a LH solid #1 starter would be sweet.

I agree with you Glevin, Batty has little value, which is why I never suggested Batty as a main piece in a Vlad deal - Batty may be a "throw-in" in a deal or acquired separately but for Vlad I'm looking for more highly regarded prospects/young players.

Winter meetings are 1 week away. Hope Soto signs. I think Boston will get him. Rich team that wants to compete for a long time as a top AL competitor.

I hope somehow the Jays can keep Vlad.

An interesting trade target I just noticed was Luis Arraez. He plays 1B/2B and had a fair amount of time at 3B in 2021 (5 DRS there in 414 innings). San Diego is needing to cut payroll and he might be one of the easier to trade guys - 200 hit a year guy who has a high average, not much power (5-10 HR) but did hit 354 in '23, 323 lifetime. Might be useful as a different look hitter in the lineup, reads offensively as a Ernie Clement but with a much higher batting average and weaker defense. In his last year of arbitration he is likely to get $14.9 mil (Cots). If he can play 3B he'd be a very nice get imo - left handed hitter, could fit nicely at #1/#2 to add more baserunners for Vlad and whoever.

It's clear to me this FO is going to pivot after losing out on Soto.

They will sign Alonso and move Vlad to 3B.

Sign the best OF they can afford or trade for.

Ditto RP.

Alonso would be idiotic signing IMO. Moving Vlad to 3B and massively downgrading defense, giving up the #45 pick, to get a declining 120 WRC+ 1Bman makes no sense. I'd rather just sign O'Neill or Torres who at least are upgrades and don't cost draft picks or Santander who at least plays a position of need.

Count me as another anti-Alonso person. QO and expected to get 5/$25 per year for ages 31-35. His peak wRC+ is 144 as a rookie in 2019. His defense is Vlad range at 1B -8.2 to -17.2 runs. Ick. That is the type of signing I'd expect under JPR in the 00's. Santander is poor on D but is in LF, not 1B, and not quite as bad. Plus his 129 wRC+ last year is his best outside of a 130 in 2020. Still not exciting or ideal imo. Torres if he can play LF (his defense at 2B leaves a lot to be desired) might work better - no QO, lower pay expectation ($18 per over 3), lifetime 113 wRC+, 120 in '23. Plus if the kids flop at 2B (Wagner/Schneider) he can move there, then see if the OF kids can handle LF. Huh, didn't think I'd see the pluses of chasing that guy, but there you go.

I couldn't agree more with you guys.

My alternative would be:

Trade for Cody Bellinger
Trade for Devin Williams
Sign Teoscar or Santander
Sign Shane Bieber or Eovaldi
Spend 8 million on set up arms

I love digging into dreams here, but the budget sounds like at most there is $50 mil left. For the Rays that would be a dream come true, but for the Jays it is 2 significant players and a couple of pen pieces at best. Bellinger you might get the Cubs to cover up to $10 mil, putting him at $20 for 1 year which isn't bad. Williams is projected to get $7.7 mil in arbitration. Santander $20 per/4 years, Teoscar $23 per/3 years, Bieber $20 per/2 yrs, Eovaldi 3/$20, so you are looking at $27.7 + $20/23 + $20 = $67.7-$70.7 mil or about $20 mil more than the budget. Now, the easy cut is Bellinger or Teoscar/Santander signing, making it an OF/Williams/Bieber or Eovaldi/remainder on pen. That would be $47.7 mil or almost dead on budget with maybe up to $3 mil for another reliever, the rest of the pen being AAAA scrubs & kids. That sounds realistic and hits the key areas. Could save $3-7 mil more for the pen by signing O'Neill (3/$17), Profar (3/$15), Pederson (2/$14), Conforto (1/$12), or someone like Torres (3/$18) who is an IF but might be OK in LF.

Not as nice as signing Soto, Fried, and a few top notch relievers but a LOT more realistic.

The only way I'd want Bellinger is if it's Springer and a little something else for Bellinger. I doubt Chicago would do that since Cody is more valuable at this point.

I thought they had about 40 million before they non tendered Romano and Tate? I think they can trade Bassitt to free up budget.

If they don't get an OF with power snd ability to hit in a non platoon role then...enough with this FO.

DAMN the market is hot. Boyd and Montas eavh going over 15 million per year.

Seems like overpays.
There could be deals later.

Could be deals or could be overpays on the likes of Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier...

" The only way I'd want Bellinger is if it's for Springer and a little something else for Bellinger."

You'd think the Cubs might want more than a little something else for taking Springer considering how his stats dropped off last year. On the other hand, Bellinger is 5 million more expensive and his stats dropped across the board last season, too. Still an interesting idea for a trade.

Could be just a premium teams are willing to pay to avoid QO recipients.

Bellinger for Springer would be difficult.

If the Cubs are trading Belanger they want to get out from under his salary. They are not going to take on another two years of Springer. Thats especially so because if Bellinger has a good year he can opt out. If I were them, I'd rather keep Bellinger, hope he rebounds, and be done with him after this season.

Plus Springer has an 8 team no trade list.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Soto is already on the plane! Why do you think that first window is covered if he isn't?

Unfortunately, I think the plane is headed to New York.

It's interesting to think about how this team would look if we did have Soto and VGJ.

Having two amazing hitters helps, but without significant improvements in development to fill the gaps over time, we could end up more like the Angels than the Dodgers.

When you're that top heavy player-wise, like the Yankees, the second any or both of those players go cold or are injured, you are in a rough situation. Dodgers had contributions up and down their lineup.

Anyway, have they taken Soto out for sushi yet?

"Anyway, have they taken Soto out for sushi yet?"

I don't think Kikuchi's birthday dinner will be in Toronto this year.

The Blue Jays have hired a 32 year old hitting co ordinator from the LAD.

Interesting that there are reports now that the Jays are expected to have the high bid for Soto. I figured the Mets would be the biggest on raw $, Yankees in the ballpark, Jays & Red Sox both on the edge but failing. Dodgers not really there except as a backup plan due to their insane deferred cash situation. If the Jays do have the top bid and he goes elsewhere you can't fault Rogers, just the Jays management's ability to sell the team to top free agents. If they didn't use Vlad in their pitch (and others from the DR like Jose Bautista and George Bell who could speak about the long term value of being a Jay - how fans remember you forever and forget or forgive any slights in the past far easier than Red Sox or Yankee fans will - see Bill Buckner for a classic example of how toxic it can get).

Just hit that too - Jays hire Dodgers hitting coordinator Lou Iannotti as an assistant. He was with the Dodgers for their 2 recent titles. Seems like a good hire on the surface - if you aren't winning, take guys from those who are.

Coordinator to coordinate the coordinators.

Dollars to donuts I bet that “jays expected to be top bidder for Soto” is coming from the Boras corporation PR machine .

A Chapman to Boston 1 year deal.

10.75 million for a soon-to-be 37 year old who had a 3.79 ERA last season. He's still a strikeout pitcher, though.

I feel like this market is about to burst open with trades and signings with Toronto front and center.

Springer, KK, Belt/Turner was about $45mil for each of 2023 and 2024. I am now wondering if that was a misuse of funds. We were all excited by Springer when signed but also knew that he probably would decline. He played a lot of DH to stay healthy. But it could have been worse.

Trading for B Rooker may be good. He was DFA'd Nov 2022 by KC and picked up by Oakland. He has great power but Ks 30%+. His D is probably suspect.

KK/Belt/Turner are all examples of poor use of funds and why spreading cash out isn't something I like. You need to maximize the ceiling first. Springer was a good risk that way, in 2021 he produced as expected, but in fewer games. 2022 was similar but a touch less production in more games. 2023 saw less production more games leading him to be a league average regular (2.1 bWAR in 154 games), last year was the expected 'oh crap' at the end of his deal but a year earlier than expected (1.1 bWAR). Hopefully he can get back to his 2-4 WAR level. KK/Belt/Turner never had any chance of being at 4+ WAR. Belt's last time was 2016 for 3+ WAR, Turner cracked 3 in 2021, 4 in 2018 so there was a touch more hope there. KK was in 2021 for 3+ (4 in 2017) before 2023's dead cat bounce - all 3 of those great years saw high BABIP for KK, something that isn't sustainable.

So that is why I'm all-in on Soto and the Jays appear to be too given recent reporting. Let's hope it isn't false hope but that Soto really is 100% going for the cash and the Jays really are willing to go there. The new rumor that they have a shot at Sasaki is a 'holy crap' if true. I won't buy it unless it happens.

I wonder if the Jays would be offering Soto an opt out.

A cynical person might deduce that Atkins would offer Soto a long term deal with an opt out after year three or so. With the practical result being (if the offer was accepted) that he increases his odds of being renewed as GM, while avoiding a long term contract on the books (assuming Soto keeps performing).

His elbow needs to be donated to science -- how he has avoided TJ throwing that hard for so long is amazing. As for his head, neuroscience has plenty of messed up brain tissue. I am curious what the local fans here will think of this signing... I guess it's not a "because it is 2015" situation.

I'd think an opt-out or two is mandatory, as is $600 million+ to be in the game at this point. Read that Soto is now cutting down the number of teams as well, so hopefully a decision is coming soon. I'm hoping Toronto or the Mets, no Yankees, no Red Sox.

ESPN now reporting that the methodical thinker Juan Soto is nearing a decision before the Winter Meetings this Sunday.

I'm going to save everybody the heartache. I went to the future and took a look. The Jays did not sign Juan Soto.

Boras said "I don't think anything is imminent in the near future" but that doesn't fuel clicks.

I would be surprised if a guy with the money and ego of Steve Cohen let money stand in the way of not only landing Soto but dealing an embarrassing loss to crosstown rival Yankees.

Lots of half empty glasses amongst Beauxites...

"near future" can mean 1 day or it can mean 5 days or more. The expectation has been that Soto would sign at the winter meetings and his agent saying nothing in the "near future" could easily mean Tuesday and Wednesday or even Thursday, leaving a signing happening on the weekend before the Winter meetings start. If you follow the reports, the teams have submitted at least two bids each to Soto and he's finalizing his choices as they are at 600 million in offers. It took about 10 days to go through two rounds so shouldn't take more than an extra week to finalize which would put the signing decision to this weekend.

Mr. Cohen's reputation is not consistent with the facts. Did he go out and sign Aaron Judge away from the Yankees because it would hurt them and he would stop at nothing to do so? No. Did he outbid the Jays for George Springer who everyone said the Mets desperately wanted at the time? No. Did he keep his most expensive pitchers last year because he has a bulk of money and can afford to? No, he unloaded them for prospects.

Lastly, it's one thing to travel to the future and tell us that the Jays did not sign Juan Soto but please share who they did sign and who Juan Soto signed with. I'd like to know!

I just went to the future to confirm. It seems that by going to the future you caused a butterfly effect and now Soto does sign with the Jays. Hopefully, I did not cause a butterfly effect and Soto does not sign with the Jays.

We're in a Schrödinger's Soto set-up...

Go Leafs Go!

We're all waiting for Soto to sign...not to see that he signed with the Jays but to see the off season officially begin...

Earlier I spoke about mismanaging the budget. Risks have to be taken so a little bit of mismanagement is probably acceptable. Is a 2nd Springer type contract acceptable risk with Springer still having 2 years remaining on his contract? My gut says no but I could be wrong.

Do position players or SPs age better? Sometimes a gut feeling is ok but IMO statistics are available to provide a better answer possibly. I think pitchers age better based on gut feeling. C Morton in Atlanta is doing quite well and is in his 40s. Comparing the Ray/ Gausman contracts, Guasman is clearly better unless Ray finishes off his contract with 2 seasons with under 3 ERA. That makes 3 of 5 good years.

I don't know if I should be criticizing Atkins for his bullpen construction or not. Other than 2024 was his pen good? His pen was not cheap but also not expensive. He did the right thing after the trade deadline by increasing the quantity of relievers by DFA and waiver claims. This allowed him to test them. None seem great but many have options left.

The "like" heard around the world.

That agent is Boras who is known to delay signings well into spring training at times.

I've read from reporters that nobody goes working in Canada if they can have the same job at the same salary in the USA.
I'm not sure how that applies to people who are not Americans.
Encarnation was in the Blue Jays dugout because he's connected to Vladdy and the Jays, not because they paid him more than some other teams.

I don't think the opt outs affect anything.
Shapiro hate them but in this case, who cares if he wants to leave after 5 years?

With opt-outs I normally hate them 100%, but this is a rare case where they could be a plus - say you sign Soto, then after 3-5 years he takes an opt-out and goes elsewhere, you just got 3-5 prime years of a HOF'er where he performed well and then don't need to pay for the decline years. That sounds like a win to me. Of course, if he gets hurt then you are on the hook for those decline years. Ouch. Still, not the worst risk to take imo.

Realistically the Jays have about a 1 in 4 shot or less (I don't see the Dodgers being able to push up the cash here with their other commitments). The question is what Soto wants. Does he want a statue in CF at Yankee Stadium? If so then there is only once choice. If he wants to be a US star then the 2 NY teams are his best bet. If he enjoys the Green Monster and doesn't mind losing a lot of HR to R-CF then Boston works. If he loves the idea of being a star for a nation in addition to one for the DR then the Jays work (same if he wants to avoid rain delays for half his games). If he just wants a LOT of WS titles then the Dodgers make sense, but he'd lose a lot of cash for that choice. Also with the Yankees or Dodgers he will NEVER be the #1 guy (Judge/Ohtani). Boston, Toronto, and the Mets have that opportunity - never underestimate the value of ego for a pro-athlete.

Regardless, I expect the Jays to shift quickly to plan B - hopefully they have more than $50 mil available and can sign a top starter and an OF (Fried-Santander I suspect would be their top choices based on reports), as well as improve the pen (none should cost $10+ mil)

Ah, kids and their online head games.  ugly, I hope you are joking by reading into an instagram like.

vladdy leaving for boston would be the absolute perfect cherry on top of the shatkins sundae.

The Major League Baseball Players Association announces its newly elected eight-member executive subcommittee - an ex-Jay and a current Jay are on it - Marcus Semien & Chris Bassitt. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing. Still, either way a noteworthy thing.

I guess it's a good thing that the Toronto media have easy access to Bassitt if they want to ask him about his views--assuming he's outspoken.

"vladdy leaving for boston would be the absolute perfect cherry on top of the shatkins sundae."

No doubt there are lots of "fans" regurgitating these sentiments and even wishes. It's a phenomenon synonymous with losing that ails 2/3rd of fanbases.

There’s a new story out with Ohtani and the agent calling the reporting last year reckless. The lede is buried which is Ohtani camp say they fielded calls from “everyone they were still having discussions with” but that Toro to dis not call because they already knew he was not on the plane.

The revelation is that Toronto was NOT an Ohtani finalist. It’s likely that the Jays are not going to take the contract risk on Soto. Shapiro doesn’t make these kinds of moves. He never has and this story from last year indicates that reports that the Jays were perhaps breaking that pattern should now be put to bed.


Time to move on from this management team. Yesterday would have been better, but no time better than the present. Vlad is as good as gone. This organization isn’t serious about spending with the big boys. It will need a full rebuild unless the schedule becomes fully balanced.

Wait a minute! - I read last year that this Ohtani guy was going to be banned permanently from baseball, never to be heard from again. The Jays escaped a major disaster!

"There’s a new story out"

The fact that TOR did not call doesnt mean anything other than they knew he was not on the plane because he had not accepted their offer yet.

Read the quote: "Organizations we were still having discussions with reached out to me, and I said, 'No, I'm not on a plane to Toronto. Shohei is not on a plane to Toronto. We are here.' The only organization that didn't reach out to me was Toronto. They knew I wasn't on a plane."

He isnt talking about all organizations. Just those, including TOR, who were in on Ohtani.

Reading comprehension. Its a thing - unless you are looking to parse words to reinforce your narrative.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3150734/amp

Tim Dierkes, the owner of MLB Trade Rumors, had a subscriber email Q&A yesterday and one of the questions he answered concerned a contract for Vladdy. He suggests there is a disconnect between what front offices will pay for a first baseman and what the fans expect.

I believe the main reason Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t been locked up is that he’s always had negative defensive value. So much so that he can be a very good hitter, as he was in 2022, and still be worth only 3.3 WAR. That made it possible for various notably worse hitters, for example Jake Cronenworth, to be more valuable than him that year.

Vlad has gone supernova on the league exactly twice in six seasons: 2021 and 2024. He hit so well in those seasons that it overwhelmed his poor defense, and he was worth 5-6 WAR each time.

Guerrero will hit the free agent market as a 27-year-old seeking perhaps $300MM who should probably be a full-time DH. When was the last time a first baseman or non-Ohtani DH got even $100MM in free agency? It was Freddie Freeman in March of 2022, a deal that is almost three years old. Before that it was Eric Hosmer in February of 2018. Shortly after Freeman signed, Matt Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension.

So the market for Vlad will lack precedent. He’s an absolute monster in the middle of the lineup and is merely very good at hitting in his off years. That’s completely backed up by Statcast. When a guy hits the market in advance of his 27th birthday with very strong power numbers, he expects to get paid, but modern front offices do not reward this player type. I believe Guerrero will be well-compensated, but not necessarily by the Blue Jays and it probably won’t come as easily as some fans think.

Freeman got $162M over six years.

Position played and performance are very important for some things. Most likely off season chatter.

Vlad had 2 exceptional years and the rest of the time very good. Snell 2 exceptional years and the rest maybe not very good. 7 years with under 130 IP/yr. Snell got $36.4/yr for 5 years. Vlad will get a very good contract.

Houston has offered a contract to Bregman but he is still testing the market. Severino 3 years $67mil with Oakland. Maybe Oakland is a bit serious about competing next year.

Do you want to know the terrifying truth? Or do you wanna see him sock some dingers (and steal some bases)?

Internet tough guy points go to Ducey today. Make sure to cash those in before you make the mistake of talking to someone like that on the street.

the good news is that we can be sure when this org doesn't spend on vladdy that they will definitely spend that money elsewhere and spend it wisely.

I fully expect this front office to continue to do what they are doing which is fielding a high payroll team. If they don't pay 40 - 60 million to Vlad and Bo I fully expect them to sign someone else whether that be Dylan Cease, Kyle Tucker, Josh Nayloro etc.

I don't see any history of this FO to say "we couldn't sign these players so let's cut the payroll by 25%."

Defensive value is the wrong way to look at it.
It's about replacement value. 
What is Guerrero's value compared to the alternative at 1B?
That's the real question.
Guerrero has been an All-Star the last 4 years, same as Othani.
I don't have any problem with spending lots of money on a firstbaseman and a lot less on guys at defensive positions who are barely average offensively.
On paper, those guys generate a lot of WAR but if you have a replacement that looks comparable at AAA, I don't see any value.

Well, for Vlad you have 17 fWAR over 5 seasons (discounting his first 2 as 1 as they totaled 183 games producing just 0.6 fWAR). Doubt anyone would argue against that. So that is 3.4 fWAR per year or about $30.6 mil based on $9 mil per WAR (a generally accepted value that the free agent market used recently). It seems WAR beyond 3 is when you get to silly figures (see Ohtani & Soto) as those are extremely valuable and saves a roster slot (ie: a 6+ WAR guy allows you to have 1 or 2 dead slots and still be competitive, or gives you the ability to go nuts and win 100).

So a 5 year $150 mil deal is reasonable for Vlad, if you assume he will outperform 3 WAR a year, but going to 10/$300+ (or $400+ now) requires you to expect 5+ a year (as he will be here for a decline period if you go past 5 years). As to that 5+ option - FG 2 projections up both assume a 5 WAR season in 2025 for him, and one would figure similar for a couple more years if healthy. Steamer has 19 players as 5 WAR guys projected for 2025 - Vlad is #19. There were 18 of them in 2024 so that isn't an unreasonable estimate of guys up there. Of the other 18 who is available? Soto appears to be the only one who is available at any price. Gunnar Henderson, Judge, Witt, Jose Ramirez, Tatis, Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodríguez, Ohtani, Betts, Tucker, Cal Raleigh, Lindor, Contreas, Harris, Acuna, Carroll, and Seager are the others. Can anyone picture one of those guys being available in a trade? I can't.

In house? Horwitz is projected at 2.0 over 126 games and that is probably optimistic and I suspect factors in time at 2B after 2024. Maybe Davis Schneider? Steamer 600 PA has him at 1.9, Wagner at 3.4 but he'll probably stay at 2B. Just nothing at 1B in the majors or near it that makes me think Vlad can be replaced internally.

So what about FA's? Pete Alonso is #1 for 1B projected at 2.6 at age 30 - odds are low he'll climb back to the 4's (reached only as a rookie in 2019). Christian Walker at 2.5 is the only other 1B over 2 - entering his age 34 season. Yeah, not much of an option beyond a 1 year deal imo, especially with a QO attached.

Thus the Jays are in a bad place - they have to meet Vlad's price or end up with a hole at 1B (don't see 3B as more than 50 games a year going forward, more likely 10-25). Not good. If by some miracle he can handle 3B again then his price goes up and his WAR as well (a poor 3B's defense is worth more than a poor 1B).

I think rather than combining the first two years it makes more sense to look at ages 22-25 since 20 years old is very young and 21 was covid. In those 4 years he has 18.9 WAR in 4 years. So that is about 4.75 WAR a year. At your $9M a year, that is about $43M/year. As you point out WAR is non-linear as guys that can put up 5+ WAR are much more rare and thus more than twice as valuable as guys that put up 2.5 WAR. He's going to be about $30M in his final year of arbitration, I don't think he'd sign for just that arbitration number (so 10/$300 is likely too low). Maybe 10/325 or 10/350 is fair, but I suspect 10/400 isn't off the table. As for how many years he has left of being good, probably about 10 +/- 3 years of good play left, so there's always risk with a 10 year contract, but he's young enough the risk isn't too bad.

If you assume there is no extension this year and he plays and then hits free agency, what do you suppose the contract is if he has another 6+ WAR season? What if 5 WAR? What if 4 WAR? What is 3 or 2 or is injured? My guess is 4 WAR leaves things about the same, less lowers things, 5 WAR increases things slightly, 6+ WAR gets over 10/500 maybe even approaching 10/600.

Mark Feinsand article saying FA pitching is very expensive. He quoted an NL executive.

Feinsand gave details. 1st tier Snell, Burnes and Fried.

2nd tier: Kikuchi. And very surprisingly Severino to Oakland.

3rd tier: Boyd & Montas.

So IMO long relievers are most likely going to have a lot of value. Nice call Marc Hulet. How good will the 3rd tier SPs be and how many innings? How much do the long relievers pitch (Stripling)? Interesting questions.

How much bang for your buck? At least the Jays are willing to spend.

Does anyone here like the Golden AB rule that’s being tossed around?
(Once per game a team would get to give an AB to anyone in the lineup, regardless of the current spot due up in the order)

I don’t like it. I think it’s too distortionary

personally i'm bullish that vladdy finally made some much needed corrections to his approach last year and fixed some issues that were holding him back.

I expect him to continue mostly at that 150wrc+/5war level for the next while.

The golden AB could be fun for spring (get extra PA for stars to get ready - might get a top player to show up in the 9th in the early going now and then), for All-Star games (get the top star an extra PA in a meaningless exhibition game), and even the minors (more PA for top hitting prospects). But I say 'no' to ever putting into games that count - major league games, and especially not in the playoffs.

I don't like it either, but in the context of other North American sports (and International Soccer, which seems to have a foothold at least here in Boston) -- I get the impetus. In all of those other sports, the coach can say "Get X the ball/puck."

I like that baseball is more organic with its big moments and the whole team has more/less equal opportunity to contribute on offense... but the modern sports market is the modern market.

"Does anyone here like the Golden AB rule that’s being tossed around?"

Nope. I dont like it one bit.

A big part of the appeal of baseball is seeing who will be facing who late in the game. Planning that is a key part of strategy.

A manager could have Judge hit twice in a row! Or hit him an extra time each game to try and get him and extra 162 AB for a HR record.

I love the scrappy #9 hitter being up in the key spot and being overlooked, only to come up with a big hit.

The market is ruled by offer and demand.
The demand is high, so the initial contracts are good but eventually, the teams will spend with the budget they have and the offers will drop.
When teams run out of money, they look to trade prospects to fill their needs instead. 

Pitchers get injured a lot.
Starters can wait out some injuries in the spring to sign like Snell did.
However, starting pitchers signed late often have bad years.

Japanese pitchers are also having an impact on the market.
Especially if one can sign for international free agent money.
That could be a huge saving.

Jansen to TB

1yr $8.5m for Jansen

dammit that's a steal. we should have beaten that.

"Beaten that"

He wanted full time role to rebuild value because he couldn't get the deal he wanted. Toronto can't offer that.

Jays were never going to pay $8.5M for a second catcher and no way they should have either. Money is better spent elsewhere (relievers!)

$8.5 mil for a guy who cracked 2 WAR once in his career (7 seasons), sub 1 last year over 92 games? Who reached 100 games played only once? Yeah, on a per game basis he has done well, but if you take emotion out of it he is unlikely to provide a ton of value. I'm happy he got a deal he wanted - to play nearly full time and $8.5 mil. I wish him well, but for a 30 year old catcher who hasn't had good health I see that as very good deal for him. If he is healthy Tampa should get good value, but if he is 2024 Jansen they won't.

Ouch, checked FanGraphs and Jansen is at 0.5 fWAR for last year. His 1.3 projection (81-87 games) is reasonable for what he got. Heineman for comparison is projected at 0.7 over 47-50 games. Adjust to 81 and you get 1.1 - is 0.2 projected enough to spend an extra $7.7 million? Nah. I think Heineman will be a perfectly acceptable backup.

Jansen had no reason to sign with the Jays to either backup or split time with Kirk. Now he presumably gets to start and can re-enter the market next winter with what he hopes to be a full season worth of PA's. Playing half his games in a minor league stadium probably won't hurt (see 2021 Blue Jays offense).

Apparently, Cubs are determined to trade Bellinger or Suzuki to upgrade elsewhere on their roster. Bellinger doesn't interest me unless Jays can shed salary the other way but Suzuki does. He is a bad fielder in RF but probably acceptable in LF. I expect similar but better value to Santander (fewer HRs, much better OBP). He is owed 2/$38 which seems OK. Obviously depends on what Cubs want but if they are desperate to shed salary, could be an opportunity to get a 3 WAR player for a couple of years for not too much.

Suzuki would be great IMV. An 850 ops is nothing to sneeze at

Seems as though Jano got the standard Travis d'Arnaud deal.

Santander is a switch hitter.
With him, the Jays could got R-L-R-S-L-R-L.
Suzuki is another R bat. Yeah, he has good platoon numbers but he was hitting between Happ and Bellinger, 2 good left bats.

Bellinger and Suzuki would be nice - send them Springer plus something to balance it out (maybe Schneider since many are tired of him already). Cody Bellinger is projected at 2.1/2.2 fWAR (but given his past it could be anywhere from 0 to 4), Seiya Suzuki despite horrid defense was a 3.6 last year, 3.2 the year before, and projected at 2.2/2.3 for next year (weird) - he'd be a solid DH/part time LF. Put Bellinger in RF, they are (for tax purposes) $26.7 mil and $17 mil for Suzuki - $43.7 combined vs $25 mil for Springer. So that'd save the Cubs $18 mil tax wise and give the Jays 2 OF's who could produce 3+ WAR each potentially (based on 2023 and 2024 performance, not projections). Not sure that makes a ton of sense, but it could work and would be just a 2 year risk, not a long term nightmare. It'd be a significant change which many want (not the change they want perhaps, but a change), and a net cost increase less than signing any of the big OF free agents would be (around $18 mil).

FYI: Yes, this is the silly season - I don't expect something like this to happen but it would be interesting. All depends on what the Cubs goals are (they have a Leaf situation where the park is full, viewers watching even if they suck).

FYI: Guardians To Re-Sign Shane Bieber - $10 mil in 2025, $16 mil player option for '26 ($4 mil buyout - so if he has a good year for them he gets a total of $14 mil and hits the market next winter, bad year and he gets $26 mil over 2 years). Not a fan of those types of deals, 100% of the risk on the team, none on the player. He was predicted to get $12 mil for 1 year.

So right now the signings for starters goes Blake Snell $182/5, Luis Severino $67/3, Yusei Kikuchi $63/3, Michael Wacha $51/3, Frankie Montas $34/2, Matthew Boyd $14.5/2, Shane Bieber $26/2, Nick Martinez $21.05/1, Kyle Hendricks $2.5/1. Starting pitching is expensive. Only Aroldis Chapman has cracked $10 mil per year for relievers, with Aaron Bummer the only one to get 2 years ($13 mil). Burnes and Fried are both expected to be well over $100 mil, but shy of $200 mil (I'm expecting them to reach $200 mil thanks to waiting out Soto as the 4 losers in that battle will all want to make a splash and those 2 are the best remaining players after Soto imo, with Adames & Bregman next, blows my mind that Alonzo is expected to crack $100 mil as well - he just isn't that good imo).

So relief help is out there and far cheaper than starting pitching. But relievers are far more variable than starters are thus helping explain the spread (as does total innings).

Man, I wish this Soto thing would wrap up. ( Disclaimer: not intentionally Christmas related) The Red Sox apparently want another meeting with him so it looks like they're ready to back up the Brinks truck for Soto. It's strange they didn't have the same urgency when Mookie Betts was a free agent.

I feel sorry for Chaim Bloom. Red Sox spent tons every year before him, bring him in to drastically cut costs and stop spending then fire him and are willing to spend huge again. They'd be my least favourite place for Soto to go to I think.

The signings for starters include Clay Holmes for 3/38M with an opt out after 2 years.
Seems like a pretty wild idea. I mean, yes, the guy looked like a decent starter in AAA, but that was 7 years ago and he hasn't thrown over 70 pitches in the last 6 years.
I find it really hard to take the Mets seriously. They are a bit like the Angels at times.

Weird - read an article by Jim Bowden saying the Jays should sign Nathan Eovaldi for 3/$70 mil saying "The Blue Jays are struggling to persuade free agents to come to Toronto." for depth. Entering his age 35 season, last had 30 starts in a season in 2021 (did reach 29 last year). Not what is needed. At all. At best he'd be another Bassitt - solid #3/4 guy, but nothing more. He should be at best a backup if they fail to sign Burnes or Fried. Same article he sends Santander to Washington, Alonso to Seattle, Burnes to SF, Pirates O’Neill, Soto to the Mets, Teoscar back to the Dodgers, Bregman back to Houston, Fried to the Red Sox, Adames to Atlanta. I think that covers the guys we've seen strong rumors regarding the Jays. Of course, I give Bowden about as much credit as I give random posters lately - he is one of those pushing a Vlad trade.

Adames to the Giants 7 years, $182M

Another one off the board

I was going to float a Springer for Arenado trade, but then looked at Arenado's contract. He has three years left worth $74 M including $30M deferred over 10 years.

$10M is paid by COL and maybe STL would chip in, but no thanks.

It also appears he is not an upgrade on Clement going forward (he was 2.5 WAR last year and will continue to fade, Ernie was 3.4 in fewer games)

Both Arenado have NTC (George is 8 teams) so likely would not work anyway.

If I'm a top free agent and I look at the Blue Jays with a FO in it's last year, no signs of an extension for their top 2 players a year away from free agency and a lightly regarded farm system, why would I sign with the Jays unless they blow me away with an offer that's way above what other teams are offering - sort of how Arod went to Texas or Cano to Seattle (both disasters for those teams).

Depends on the priorities for each free agent. Some would prefer the quieter, more forgiving, atmosphere in Toronto vs the insanity of NYC. Some might want their kids to go to school without the constant threat of a school shooter, or want to have their kids get dual citizenship and the benefits that could bring. Tons of possible reasons to pick Toronto over NYC. Now with the mega bucks these guys get they might not care about some of those things as they can just fly wherever whenever. But as Vlad indicated a few years ago respect is critical - his dad was disrespected by NYY iirc thus he will never go there (forget the details now).

As I've said pretty much all along - I expect Soto to sign with the Mets, then the Jays quickly pivot to Santander, Teoscar, or set up a trade (O'Neill, Profar, Pederson, etc. I see as emergency backup plans ala Kiermaier last winter). Also to try to sign Fried or Burnes. If they get one of those starters or one of the 2 big hitters then it won't be a 100% disaster winter. Same if they get Bregman or even Torres. Kim would be a backup plan (high end defense/meh offence if healthy - will miss April and maybe May as well), Alonso I'd see as a panic move. Christian Walker is another possible move (DH who at least has been a 3 fWAR player each of the past 3 years but entering age 34 season) but not one I'd be a fan of unless crazy cheap (QO attached).

I'd LOVE Soto to sign here. I do see how it could happen ($710 mil over 15 years - thus a billion dollar Canadian contract, biggest ever in raw dollars, years, etc.) but the Mets can beat anyone if they want.

Tyler O'Neill to Baltimore, 3 years. Santander replacement?

O'Neill 3/$49 with opt out after this year to Orioles. He's much better against lefties but I like him way more than I like Santander at what he's going to cost.

Well, O'Neill got just shy of what FG estimated - 3/$51 was the guess there. They also have him expected to be a 1.8 fWAR player in 2025 which IMO is not that useful. Teoscar and Santander are both better targets and are listed at 3/$69 and 4/$80 respectively. If the Jays want to impress Vlad they'd go for Teoscar, if they want to maximize winning potential Santander (2 years younger and a switch hitter). Of course, at this stage lord knows what will happen. Once Soto signs at over $700 mil (reported that both NY teams have gone there) the market should burst open. Hopefully the Jays have their #1 choice post-Soto all planned and ready with an offer to get him the minute they know if they won/lost that race. I'm leaning towards Fried myself (5/$125), but would be very happy if they grabbed Burnes (6/$180). Will they sign for those amounts? Impossible to know, but it gives a reasonable guesstimate. Snell went way over, Kikuchi a bit over, Wacha almost dead on, Severino $19 mil over, Holmes $18 mil over (1 extra year), Martinez more per year fewer years, Bieber way less (years same, but $7 mil less per year, but has opt out). There are others but that gives the idea - the ones way off either got a big opt out (Bieber) or extra years (Holmes) or are just weird (Severino). Snell has tons deferred (extra year pretty much covers the extra value then).

So what will the Jays do? O'Neill was a backup choice I suspect, Adames was a strange fit from day one, Jansen too expensive for a backup. Adames got 1 extra year and $1 mil more per year, O'Neill nearly dead on, Jansen short a year but $500k more per, the rest who signed neither were predicted nor achieved $15 mil total value so who cares. The winter meetings should be fun, or depressing. If by December 14th (next weekend) the Jays haven't made any moves it might be time to get depressed and expect 2025 to be a rebuild ala 2018 (holding onto guys too long, taking too long to decide what to do, then ending up with nada). I really hope instead they find a way to go for it and not lose key pieces, ideally signing Vlad long term but that'll be damn hard now. He knows another 150+ OPS+ season and he'll be the big guy next winter with a $500+ mil price tag (at least).

Instead of the 'Golden At Bat' rule, I favor the 'Right to an At Bat' rule I mentioned a while ago;
i.e., if the batter draws a walk (or hit-by-pitch),
then the manager can choose to send a ghost runner to first
(an insertion, similar to the extra innings ghost runner, chosen from the previous 4 slots in the lineup of those not already on base)
and let the batter have a new plate appearance (with fresh 0-0 count).
No limit to how many walks (or hbp) a batter can draw in one turn.
(If the batter gets an 'at bat', i.e., a ball in play or home run or strikeout, or sacrifices, then have to proceed to the next batter like usual.)
The result would be more plate appearances and at bats for the top batters.

Ghat's a great rule proposal.

This has been a very nice off season for me. I usually get engrossed in all the hype and drama which is exciting but just emotional highs and lows. I also become impatient. Without those Hi/Low emotions I am involved in more analysis than emotion. So to each his own.

As of now some big teams have done nothing. Jays, Texas, Seattle, SD, NYY & Boston for example. I am kind of shocked that SD & Seattle are so silent. IMO NYY has been weakened because some good players have been lost. Boston has been rebuilding for a few years and should keep improving. 1 team gets Soto which improves them a lot but all the others are going to plan B which included Adames who is no longer available.

Further analysis: 6 teams make the playoffs. I expect 3 to play .600 ball or better in the 1st 3 months and 3 to play .400 ball in that same time period. Which leaves a big fight among 9 teams which I find quite interesting and exciting.

O'Neal is basically the replacement for Austin Hays.
Baltimore is loaded with left bats, so a right platoon bats is great for them.
Health is very secondary.

They don't want to lose a pick to because of a QO even though they no longer pick early and their penalty is only a 4th rounder.
When you build a team through tanking you should maximize your window.

Adames would have been a great fit for the Yankees should they miss on Soto.
They also have a huge hole at 1B.
They need to move Judge out of CF and they already have a decent outfield prospect.

It's kinda similar with the Mets.
Their biggest hole is probably 3B.
Either team could easily pivot to Santander if they value offense over anything else.