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The first road trip, ten games in ten days, kicks off in the borough of Queens.

The Mets have been doing their best impression of a yo-yo these last three years. In 2022, they hired Buck Showalter to manage the team, and promptly exploded for 101 wins, their best season since 1988 when Strawberry and Gooden were still young and frisky. It only got them as far as the Wild Card, and San Diego sent them packing. So they added Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to the group and collapsed to 75-87. This got Showalter fired, and GM David Eppier resigned.

They bounced back last season with an 89 win campaign, (barely) snuck into a Wild Card spot - from where they knocked off Milwaukee and Philadelphia before losing to the Dodgers in the NLCS. This off-season, Steve Cohen waved his deep, deep cheque book around, as he does, and the Mets won the Juan Soto sweepstakes. Which probably will work out better than the money he spent on Scherzer and Verlander.

This will be the Mets' home opener, and Juan Soto's welcome to his new digs. The Mets split their six game road trip to start the season, losing two of three low scoring games in Houston and winning two of three of the other sort in Miami. They're hitting .188/.275/.350 as a team - infielders Brett Baty and Mark Vientos are a combined 3-38 so far, which seems unlikely to continue. Their rotation a year ago was anchored by Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Sean Manaea, each of whom made at least 31 starts and worked at least 170 IP. That won't be happening this year, as Severino is an Athletic, Quintana is a Brewer, and Manaea is on the IL for at least the next six weeks. They signed Yankees reliever Clay Holmes and plan to use him in the rotation - hey, it worked for Michael King and the Padres - and they'll be hoping Griffin Canning looks better with an actual baseball team on his side. And Kodai Senga is back, after missing most of 2024 with first shoulder and then calf problems.

Matchups

Fri 4 April - Gausman (1-0, 3.00) vs Megill (1-0, 1.80)
Sat 5 April - Bassitt (1-0, 1.50) vs Canning (0-1, 3.18)
Sun 6 April - Francis (1-0, 3.00) vs Peterson (1-0, 3.00)
Toronto at New York (Mets), April 4-6 | 121 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#458201) #
Lindor is a off to a 2-20 start. He struggled badly 2 years ago.
Vientos is a young hitter who could be chasing hits early in the season.
Alonso and Nimmo have been solid with 2 HRs each.

On paper, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning and David Peterson seems like a pretty average rotation.
I am not familiar with their pen, but it's probably better than average.
Clay Holmes, their new starter, has been good.  Who knows how many innings he can throw.
scottt - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#458204) #
The Mariners have DFA Hagen Danner.
Marc Hulet - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#458205) #
Megill has a 0.52 ERA vs the Jays over 17.1 career innings including a 9-K, 1-hit performance last year. I remember that game.
John Northey - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#458207) #
Weird with the Mariners dumping Danner - 2 G 2 2/3 IP 2 H 0 R 3 BB 1 SO in AAA. Not 'WOW' but not bad either. Danner is on his final option year thus has value - I'd certainly take him back and dump Barnes. I suspect the Jays would wait until he clears waivers though and just put him in AAA as insurance if they can.
scottt - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#458208) #
Makes sense. Megill has big splits.
scottt - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#458209) #
Wagner is the DH today. They may want to DH Springer and Santander more at home--on turf--and less on the road.
greenfrog - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#458210) #
Toronto versus Megill. Battle of the universities.
uglyone - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#458211) #
maybe we should bat Springer leadoff.
Gerry - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#458213) #
There are rumours around coming out of the DR that the Jays and Vlad are close to a deal. Vlad's agents were in Toronto last weekend.

However, rumours out of the DR are not always 100% reliable.
mendocino - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#458214) #
Josh Goldberg@JGoldberg12
Heyman says the belief remains that the Blue Jays and Vladdy will "figure it out" for close to $500M

article behind ny post paywall
mendocino - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#458215) #
Underdog MLB@UnderdogMLB
Heyman: Bo Bichette "destined" for free agency; likely to leave Blue Jays
SK in NJ - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#458216) #
From @mikedeportes:" Breaking News: According to my sources, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Toronto Blue Jays are very close to closing an extension agreement of more than $500 million dollars. #BlueJays #Toronto #VladimirGuerreroJr"

This person was the first on Ketel Marte's extension, so he must have sources in the DR. We will see.
uglyone - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#458217) #
George Spring(er)'s Eternal
dalimon5 - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#458218) #
Our manager doesn't know how to manage a bullpen. How do you put a rookie in that spot against Soto and follow up with Barnes?
dalimon5 - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#458219) #
As some like to point out past opinions, I will point out I was one of the last if not the last to abandon ship on Springer.
greenfrog - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#458220) #
Shapiro to Atkins: “Fluharty? I told you to sign Flaherty. Flaherty, dammit!”
Gerry - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#458221) #
Gausman pitched pretty well, the home run that Alonso hit wasnt off a bad pitch.

After a hot start, Bo has been hitless in three of the last four games.

The Broadcast today noted that the Jays have been significantly out-homered in the first week. Vlad and Santander's power has been slow out of the blocks.
Gerry - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#458223) #
Lovelady has elected free agency. Pop has been released.
lexomatic - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#458224) #
I find it interesting that NY got 84 Strikes in 139 pitches with 10k and 3 Bb, while the Jays got 78 strikes in 132 pitches with 1k and 4bb. That is a little suspect. Was the umpiring that unbalanced?
greenfrog - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#458225) #
It would not surprise me at all if the Blue Jays had to contend with some biased umpiring this year (due to anti-Canadianism).
Kelekin - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#458226) #
Putting Fluharty in that spot was pretty ridiculous. I think Fluharty will be good but, geez, ease him in.
John Northey - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#458230) #
Agreed that it seemed odd to put in Fluharty there, but the kid does need to face the tough hitters at some point. Still, I'd have brought in Little instead but maybe Little wasn't available and you don't bring in a RH pitcher to face Soto and Nimmo (Alonso inbetween) unless he is a reverse splits guy (I don't think any current Jays are that). Kind of amazed Barnes got 1 2/3 IP of shutout ball. Weird to see Gausman get 5 1/3 IP with 0 K's. But regardless, you aren't winning any games when you score 0 runs. Vlad 2-3 with a walk so you can't blame him, Springer 2 for 4, everyone else a combines 0 for 24 with 2 walks and 10 K's. Alonso's home run seemed odd with how it just kept going and going - more a bad luck situation there imo (wonder if the wind was blowing out at that moment or something - the way Roden ran and the announcers seemed surprised it went out).

Ah well. Just 1 of 162 games. Bassitt vs Canning (5.19 ERA last year) tomorrow night. Let's hope for better results.
Magpie - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#458233) #
Alonso's home run seemed odd with how it just kept going and going

Apparently the Mets broadcasters were so shocked that it cleared the fence that they immediately started wondering if the ball was juiced.

I assume Little was available yesterday after the off day, but I think he's being reserved for when a LH is needed to help hold a lead. I agree that part of the bullpen decision yesterday was seeing just how Fluharty looked in an actual game situation, and the best time to find out is when the team is trailing rather than when you're trying to protect a lead.
scottt - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#458234) #
They don't see to do well in home openers. I guess they feel too much like playoff games.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#458235) #
Jays faced Canning in August of 2024 and were shut out over six innings - and got just two hits. In his first start of 2025, he was super-slider heavy (51%) but used more of an equal FB/SL/CH mix against opponents in 2024.

The Jays should load up on left-handed hitters to help neutralize the slider and then mostly sit on FB/CH - Kirk (who will go with those good sliders to RF) and Loperfido were the only batters to get hits.
SK in NJ - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#458237) #
Lots of stuff on social media about the Jays and Vlad closing in on a 14 year, $500 million deal. All the reports are coming from DR sources, one of them is from the person who interviewed Vlad a few weeks ago, so take it for what it is.
dalimon5 - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#458238) #
https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/news/blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-jr-shuts-down-latest-extension-reports/1aab12c9c65d3bec2cde1ce5
scottt - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#458239) #
Lovelady has cleared waivers but I can't see anything about him electing free agency.
Gerry - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#458240) #
It was a tweet from the official account:

ROSTER MOVES:

🔹 RHP Zach Pop has cleared waivers and been released. He is now a free agent.

🔹 LHP Richard Lovelady has cleared waivers and elected free agency.
John Northey - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#458241) #
The Vlad speculation is just multiple sites doing clickbait imo. We all know Vlad wants $500 mil in present day value. We also know the Jays have pretty much hit their wall at $450 mil. So until one or the other changes their mind nothing will happen. If either does then it'll probably be done very quickly, before rumors show up about it. So until/unless he signs I try to ignore those articles.
knuckeler - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#458244) #
As a long time Blue Jay follower and observer I will categorically state some of them are biased. I know what I see and yeah sure Blue Jays get some breaks as well also but not nearly as often. I remember when, I think it was Ken Giles? who got pulled throwing 3-4 consecutive pitches very close down the heart of the plate and the umpire called every one of them balls. Buck commented they were strikes and he didn't think it was possible for Giles? to get a strike called. That was the worst I have seen, but years ago Blue Jay catcher Ernie Whitt said the umpires were biased and he always struck me as a very honest down to earth guy.
knuckeler - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#458245) #
The problem I have with Bo and Vladdy both who unquestionably are very good hitters is they don't come through in the clutch often enough for as good as they are. Too frequently they get themselves out by swinging a pitches outside the strike zone so badly at times it's tough to watch them do it time and time again. The reason I believe is a lack of focus and discipline.
That's the biggest issue I have with paying them the really big bucks. The Jays good start is largely attributable to Gimenez and Springer and the lower part of the Line up.
Nigel - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#458246) #
What an AB by Roden.
dalimon5 - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#458247) #
Where to stream?
Nigel - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#458248) #
Vladdy looks more 2023 than 2024 right now. Trying to hit a HR every AB.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#458249) #
I doubt Bichette will be the leadoff hitter in a month or two. It’s not really the right role for him (as a highly aggressive batter).
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#458250) #
love this nice long 2-out at bat by Wagner just to make sure to get Canning up to (at least) 80 pitches thru 4 and make it unlikely he can pitch past the 5th. a quick easy 2-out first pitch swing would have had had him nice and comfy and on track for another 2 innings. I really really appreciate that.


greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#458251) #
The Blue Jays haven’t scored over their last 15 innings — reminiscent of some stretches last year. Now would be a good time to change that.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#458252) #
and now two leadoff hits and Canning is out of the game.

i credit wagner.
Nigel - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#458253) #
2nd really good AB by Roden.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#458254) #
Definitely UO, I was thinking the same thing after Wagner’s professional
PA.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#458255) #
pleasantly surprised by Gimenez' ability to take pitches this year (going back into spring training too). It's never been a skill of his so i don't really expect it to continue but if it does it gives him even more upside.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#458256) #
Springer was super (rightly) pissed at that BS strike 3 call last time.

Now's the perfect time for revenge.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#458257) #
Disappointing PA by Kirk and Springer with the bases loaded. Chasing pitches out of the zone against a pitcher who was having control issues.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#458258) #
Springer got screwed again by that BS strike 2 call tho. Twice in two pa he probably felt forced to swing.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#458259) #
the kids are alright.
knuckeler - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#458260) #
Nice at bat for Bichette there, finally one of the big 3 does something. I hope they're just getting warmed up. Mark me down also as being impressed so far of Wagner's and Roden's excellent at bats :o)
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#458261) #
great outing by Bassitt.

now would be a very nice time for our new bullpen to close this one out quietly and efficiently.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#458262) #
Superb pitching by Bassitt tonight. He’s proof that you don’t need to throw in the high or even the mid-90s to be a successful pitcher in the majors.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#458263) #
well so much for quietly and efficiently.

please just get it done somehow.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#458264) #
oh no springer what did you do.

Shoeless Joe - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#458265) #
Why was little pitching in the 8th inning, the bullpen management has been brutal.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#458266) #
The umpiring in this game has been so ridiculously one sided. The home plate umpire has stiffed the Jays on 3 or 4 ball strike calls and the 3rd base umpire calls a no swing on Winker when it looked like a swing.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#458267) #
On a positive note, the fact they somehow were able to get a gold glove second baseman and a very good reliever for Spencer Horwitz is remarkable.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#458268) #
Little started out rough but to his credit he recovered with some nasty pitches - hard hit ball but springer shoulda had it i think.
christaylor - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#458269) #
I love the his hussle and effort but
along with playing RF he should have let it bounce off the wall and fielded it.

It's April, it's cold, time to be a bit conservative and accept the limits father time imposes.

Here's hoping it is not serious but it looks bad from his collapse and pained walk off the field.
uglyone - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#458270) #
ok Santander let us welcome you to toronto already.
Nigel - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#458271) #
Oh this bullpen.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#458272) #
I feel bad for Springer. He has been through a lot on the injury front and he had been off to a great start this season.
Glevin - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#458273) #
Not sure that bullpen could have been handled worse tonight.
lexomatic - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#458274) #
Isee the decision not to bri g back Garcia as the loser.
lexomatic - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#458275) #
Dont have an issue with Hoffman, but the 2 guys used in between.
Also how do you walk Siri twice in a single game
Petey Baseball - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#458276) #
That was totally mismanaged by Schneider. He just does not have the knack for when to pull starters or when a reliever doesn’t have it.
Nigel - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#458277) #
Mismanaged for sure but there are only a couple of relievers you can trust.
Gerry - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#458278) #
Two of the three Mets runs reached via a walk.
lexomatic - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#458279) #
Looking at the gamecast charts, Little should have K'd Lindor (walked on 4 straight strikes) & Soto. And Vientos ends that inning 3 Ks, 0 runs. That isnso bad ots worth a protest. Thr umps totally cost that game.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#458280) #
Agreed on both points. I’m not a fan of Schneider’s bullpen usage. And the bullpen is a bit short of good pitchers.

I thought the failure to score with the bases loaded and one out was another important point in the game. Butto was a bit wild and Kirk and Springer let him and the Mets off the hook.
lexomatic - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#458281) #
Not Vientos, Alonzo.
I was with the mis-(over managing) until i saw those charts.
Now i see this as stolen by ump incompetence (borderline calls) or intent.

2 walks to Siri is suspicious, but that 8th is so so brutal.
Gerry - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#458283) #
Not sure what you are looking at lexomatic. When I look on MLB.com, none of the pitches to Lindor were close to a strike. Where are you looking?
Gerry - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#458284) #
OK, I think the MLB charts are a better representation than those tiny ESPN ones. I also don't remember any commentator suggesting that Little was robbed.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#458285) #
Big picture, if you score 2 runs in 9 innings, you’re going to lose more often than not in MLB.

I guess in an alternative universe, the manager lets Bassitt go 7, Yimi and Hoffman pitch an inning each, and the Blue Jays win 2-0 or 2-1.
Glevin - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#458286) #
Absolutely the lack of hitting is a bigger issue so far but thought tonight's bullpen moves were baffling. Your two best relievers available by far are Garcia and Hoffman and they pitch to bottom of order in 7th and to one batter at end of game. Bassit was at 92 pitches and had Baty and Siri coming up. Why bring in your setup man in that spot?
lexomatic - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#458287) #
I cant find conplete game stuff on mlb.com when the game is over, which is why i went to espn.com Sotos at bat looks significantly different. But without seeing Lindor's hard to tell.

As for other people complaining, not a good standard. Ive watched games AND had thr gamecast going and seen brutal calls and nobody else said a thing.

Ive had little faith in thr impiring for years.
dalimon5 - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#458288) #
Fatal flaw for Atkins, Schneider and possibly Shapiro:

1) bullpen not deep enough EVERY YEAR
2) consistently poor BP management
3) super analytics ruining basic managing (Bassit threw over 100 pitches in his last start to ignore whatever you see today even if he looks very good and is under 100 because we have a predetermined plan to limit him to inning x."
4) offense stuck in neutral with 2-3 run upside most nights

I really wouldn't mind a manager, any other manager who can ignore the predictive behaviour orders and just manage using his eyes and common sense seeing how the predictive decisions don't really pan out with this team.
Michael - Saturday, April 05 2025 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#458289) #
Yeah, the Mets bottom of the order are not exactly super challenging (SSS but I think the bottom 4 were batting sub 200, and 2 of them sum 100 entering the game: Vientos .097, Baty .111, Siri .071, Senger .200), so given how good Bassitt was doing and how questionable our pen has been, not sure why you don't give Bassitt a bit more rope to finish the inning/make it until the order turns over.
Nigel - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 01:33 AM EDT (#458291) #
There’s no easy solutions for the pen. It’s thin on talent - so thin that I might take a flyer on bringing Jennings up as soon as this year. However, the first thing they absolutely must do is find a left handed reliever who is an actual MLB caliber arm. I’m not sure that they have one on the roster.
Kelekin - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 02:38 AM EDT (#458293) #
"super analytics ruining basic managing"

Maybe, but we don't have any evidence that Schneider makes in-game decisions based on analytics. The dude is obsessed with decades old baseball logic. No analytics are telling you to always go with the platoon advantage, even when it's not an advantage. No analytics are telling you to bring Fluharty in to face Soto. No analytics explained his weird rigidity with lineups in years past.

Analytics is often a scapegoat, because teams can go too far with analytics over feel. The problem is John's feel isn't very good.
dalimon5 - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 06:21 AM EDT (#458294) #
Kelekin, you may be right, and if you are it means John Schneider is managing scared which is even worse.
Glevin - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#458295) #
I don't think the pen is really thin on talent. Very few teams have solid pens all the way through and Green/Garcia/Hoffman is good. Yesterday's bullpen was just horribly managed. I think that often managers get too much blame for bullpen moves because there are things we don't see (pitcher A needed an extra day of rest, data showed an incredible matchup with stuff VS batter. Etc...) but in this case, it was just baffling. Hoffman or Garcia should be the ones facing the heart of the order not Little and Sandlin. You also burned your two best relievers for a combined 2/3 of an inning. Nothing about it made sense.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#458297) #
" just manage using his eyes and common sense "

I agree 100%, dalimon. I've felt that way since the second-last playoff series. Gausman was pitching with some men on base. He was getting up in his pitch count but still had good stuff. The crowd was roaring with every pitch, especially when he struck out the batter for the second out. You could just feel he would get the third out one way or another, but Schneider bounced out of the dugout and brought a reliever in instead. Momentum was killed, the air was sucked out of the building and, predictably, the baserunners scored.

For those who say this was just one instance, there have been many more where he just hasn't displayed good instincts for the game.
Nigel - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#458298) #
Garcia and Green were key parts of last year’s pen too. One of the worst pens in history.
Gerry - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#458299) #
For what its worth Umpire Scorecards gives the ump a good rating. They have it .22 of a run for the Mets. Only four of 109 balls were really a strike.
DavidtheDeuce - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#458300) #
Umpire Scorecard for last night's game says 0.61 runs in favour of the Mets. 9 of 60 called strikes were true balls.
lexomatic - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#458302) #
Umpire scorecards doesnt count downstream effect of errors, only what happens that at bat. So a blown call only represents the missed K/out & not prevented runs by at bat not happening. My HUGE frustration with their method.

That said, I figured out how to get the mlb.com charts and they are WILDLY different. While we know from the PED era, that the league doesn't care about the integrity of the game, or they would address the ball & strike calls, which are UNDENIABLY a problem. What confuses me is why they'd allow a 3rd party to misrepresent results and further exacerbate the questioning of their officials.

Anyway, after looking at the MLB charts, it's clear my reaction was incorrect. The problem, is that it was perfectly reasonable reaction with some of the brutal calls that we see. Sorry for starting off a debate with a heated, incorrect take.
lexomatic - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#458303) #
Re analytics vs instinct/ feel/ eye test debate:

My totally unsupported feeling is that Schneider is maybe petulantly saying " i'll manage according to analytics, even though I don't agree, and will do things to the letter."
But maybe he's just bad at this, and motivating people in the minors is easier.
greenfrog - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#458304) #
To play devil’s advocate, Schneider may have pulled Bassitt in part because of the cold/poor weather conditions, preferring to get his starter out of there in good health and with a lead intact. He probably thought, Yimi should get a quick out here and then he can pitch the eighth, followed by Hoffman in the ninth.

Also, the close game may have made Bassitt’s innings a bit more stressful than if he had had a 6-0 lead.

Then, after Yimi struggled to close out the seventh, Schneider went with Little to attack the lefty Mets bats in the eighth (presumably saving Hoffman for a ninth-inning save situation). Little got burned by some home plate umpiring. His outing would have looked better otherwise.

Not saying I agree with Schneider’s moves, but there was a certain logic to them.

In retrospect, he should have let Bassitt close out the seventh and then used his best high-leverage relievers in the eighth and ninth.
scottt - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#458305) #
I think Schneider wanted a lefty against Soto.

Walking Siri on 4 pitches was bad.
I think it was the same pitch in the same spot 4 times.
Little does not look comfortable against right bats.
It's basically the Tim Mayza approach, try to bury it low inside, but against a bad hitter looking to walk, he'd be better served by using the full strike zone and getting ahead.
The first 2 pitches to the next guy was the same and that got the pitching coach to come out.
After that, the ump became generous and a couple of balls were called strikes.

Garcia's third pitch was not good. 94mph fastball down the middle after getting ahead on 2 breaking balls.
Might have worked at 98mph, but got too much of the plate.
greenfrog - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#458307) #
Kirk, man. Six runners stranded in two key situations yesterday and today.
Nigel - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#458308) #
Francis has been good again today. No complaints if this is the back end of your rotation.
Glevin - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#458309) #
If you can't hit and have no power, not much else matters. The top of Jays lineup has been atrocious. Just can't win like that.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#458310) #
The Blue Jays have three players with average or better bat speed per Statcast. The rest of the lineup is below average.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?gameType=Regular&minSwings=5&minGroupSwings=1&seasonStart=2025&seasonEnd=2025&team=141&type=batter

Among qualified MLB batters, only Vladdy is on the leaderboard for bat speed and he's only 33rd. Next up is Kirk at 107.

They're tied for last in the majors in home runs with 5. That's an afternoon for the Yankees. The Jays are also tied for 26th in barrel rate but, oddly, have the best line-drive rate in the majors.
dalimon5 - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#458311) #
I'm okay with a loss like today. Not okay with bullpen management leading to 2 losses already this season.
knuckeler - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#458313) #
This is just another example of these 2 Prima Donna's. Game after game Bo and Vladdy do nothing like they are capable of.Instead of admitting they have been terrible and do something about it, they are both more focused on wanting out in Bo's case( because he has largely failed here recently and in the play offs when it mattered), and wanting to get paid right up there with the best in history when the TRUTH IS they haven't won anything don't deserve it. The Blue Jays have been bad mainly because they have been bad. I have never heard eitherof these Prima Donna's accept blame for their own or the teams failures to this day.
scottt - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#458314) #
Santander doesn't hit the ball hard, but he hits it in the air. It works for him.
Springer has lost some bat speed.
Varsho has more power the guys replacing him.

Bichette is a fantastic contact hitter but his power is pretty average.

Anybody hit a homer in any of the last 2 games in the outcome is probably different.

It's still early in April.
Maybe the offense will break out in Fenway.
knuckeler - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#458316) #
I agree with everything you said scottt.
Now Imagine how good Bo and Vladdy could be if they used better strike zone judgement.
To me, especially Bo, they both seem too relaxed and lack intensity and focus.
Sometimes you need to pick it up a bit.
Bo always comes to the plate like he is disinterested or better than anyone else.
Comes a time you need to produce to build a legacy and both have failed miserably.
Like as good as Bo is, and we all know he can be a fantastic hitter, when the chips are down he like Vlad are no shows.
Eephus - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#458317) #
Frustrating series when you only score three runs. However, the Mets should be pretty good and for whatever reason I have this idea in my head that the Blue Jays historically have a terrible record in Queens, whether it be old Shea Stadium or the new place. Tried searching on BBref if this was indeed true but couldn’t find anything.

My fear of the team being one big bat short remains quite intact.
greenfrog - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#458318) #
2025 hitting lines:

Ohtani .268/.400/.512 (wRC+ 154)
Soto .250/.385/.438 (wRC+ 142)
Judge .324/.419/892 (wRC+ 248)

Vlad .286/.350/.371 (wRC+ 106)

If you want to get paid like one of the big boys, better start hitting like one...
John Northey - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#458319) #
Just remember, no matter how bad it is at least it isn't Atlanta right now - they are 1-8 (ouch) with one of their free agents going onto the PED list (Profar), their closer has a blown save but no saves, their ace is Chris Sale who has a 5.40 ERA despite walking just 1 in 10 innings. The potential is there for a comeback, but damn have they dug a deep hole to start.
greenfrog - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#458320) #
Atlanta won the World Series four years ago. The Blue Jays haven’t won a postseason game in a decade.
SK in NJ - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#458321) #
A series like this weekend shows why signing someone like Pete Alonso would have been worth the tax implications. The Jays are probably going to finish in the bottom 10 in home runs in MLB, or very close to it. There’s very little chance that type of offense, even if the individual parts might be solid, will lead to anything meaningful. The fact that the team only has 2 good relievers and 4 big league starters doesn’t help either but a better offense certainly makes winning a game or two this weekend more realistic.
John Northey - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#458322) #
So they fell further. I'm talking this year, not long term. I remember the pain of '94 and '95 and all the years after. When you've been at the top the fall hurts a lot.
Michael - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#458323) #
Bowden Francis continues to be a pretty good pitcher more than earning his role. However, unfairly, when I see his moustache I can't help but blend him with Bo from Superstore (an idiot character played by Johnny Pemberton) in my mind.
christaylor - Sunday, April 06 2025 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#458324) #
I totally agree in general, but I don't know that we can pin tax implications on Alonso not signing with the Jays.

With so much noise on who they were in on this past offseason, it's hard to discern whether payroll parameters were an issue or the Jays looped in on the conversation as they were always willing to be... and the rumors used to extract as much value by the player from their team of choice.

I suspect Burnes did this, found his market price for the Jays, and then offered it (or even a bit lower) to his preferred destination.
Cracka - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#458325) #
Keegan Matheson: "Per source, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays are in agreement on a $500 million, 14 year contract extension pending physical."

The rumours were true. Well done...
uglyone - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#458326) #
Nice.



$35.7 per year
Glevin - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#458327) #
More than I would have been willing to go I think but happy nonetheless. Blue Jay for life!
James W - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 01:04 AM EDT (#458329) #
Eephus - the Jays all-time record @ NYM is now 5-17 after today.

1997: 0-3
1999: 0-3
2001: 0-3
2015: 0-2
2018: 1-1
2021: 1-2
2023: 3-0
2025: 0-3
Kelekin - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#458330) #
That's great. Between Vladdy and myself, we'll be making 500 million over the next 14 years.
greenfrog - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#458331) #
Good news for Blue Jays fans. I wish the team had a better farm system to support Vladdy over the next five or six years.

I also think it’s a risky deal that could go badly for the team because of Vladdy’s position, body type, and inconsistent performance in his career to date. But Atkins and Shapiro probably won’t be around for the last decade of the contract.

A couple of positives. Having Vladdy around long-term could help attract some of the better Latin American IFAs to sign with Toronto. The emerging global economic environment, if it leads to significantly higher inflation, will reduce the sting of this contract over time because baseball salaries will continue to rise a lot in the coming years.

Does this mean postgame Gatorade buckets for the next 14 years?
ISLAND BOY - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 06:31 AM EDT (#458332) #
I'm really happy that Vlad is signed. It's interesting that negotiations continued after the supposed deadline of the start of spring training.

Frustrating series with the Mets. Pitching was good enough to win at least 2 of 3, but no power and situational hitting. The team is fifth in the league in doubles, just not at the right time.
greenfrog - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#458333) #
You could look at the contract as 10/$50m (retirement at 36), but structured as a 14-year deal to bring down the AAV for luxury tax purposes.
greenfrog - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#458334) #
Various commentators making the point that the Blue Jays could have extended Vladdy for a lot less had they worked out a deal at an earlier point in time. By waiting until after Soto negotiated his monster deal with the Mets, they ended up in this situation.

For example, Rosenthal writes on The Athletic: "The Jays had numerous chances to [lock up Guerrero Jr. for less money], particularly after the San Diego Padres awarded Fernando Tatis Jr. a 14-year, $340 million extension in February 2021. But the Jays hemmed and hawed, making one offer after another that Guerrero deemed insufficient."

christaylor - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#458335) #
Headline: "Large media conglomerate spends 500 million over 14 years on marketing."

I kid, but this is not a baseball move. In 2023 Vladdy was Rogers third choice for the marketing/baseball spend, he likely still is but he has local brand recognition.
christaylor - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#458336) #
Also, they're buying Canadian.
BlueJayWay - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#458337) #
No deferred money, no opt outs
Glevin - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#458338) #
"For example, Rosenthal writes on The Athletic: "The Jays had numerous chances to [lock up Guerrero Jr. for less money], particularly after the San Diego Padres awarded Fernando Tatis Jr. a 14-year, $340 million extension in February 2021. But the Jays hemmed and hawed, making one offer after another that Guerrero deemed insufficient."

I applaud Rosenthal for at least giving a date when they should have signed him instead of the usual vagueness around it, but he's still an idiot. In February 2021, Tatis had around 620 career PAs and 6.3 WAR. Vlad had 750 PAs and 0.6 WAR.
greenfrog - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#458342) #
This is one of the problems with the internet. Very few people would call Rosenthal an "idiot" to his face (for example, if they were on a panel with him). But people casually issue these sorts of attacks from the safety and anonymity of their electronic device. It contributes to habits of incivility that are not good for society (in my view).

In any event, I don't think Rosenthal fits that description.
dalimon5 - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#458344) #
Maybe he isn't an idiot but a weasel. If poster said "weasel" instead of "idiot" would it have changed the calculus for you?
Glevin - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#458346) #
"This is one of the problems with the internet. Very few people would call Rosenthal an "idiot" to his face (for example, if they were on a panel with him). But people casually issue these sorts of attacks from the safety and anonymity of their electronic device. It contributes to habits of incivility that are not good for society (in my view)."

I guarantee people were calling baseball writers names in 1915. It has nothing to do with the internet. Yes, people should be civil online to other people, but calling public figures idiots or clueless or out of touch or whatever is not the issue of our time anymore than online sanctimony is.
scottt - Monday, April 07 2025 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#458349) #
Interesting tidbit from Manfred. The umps union prefer full ABS system, presumably because the challenge system highlights their missed calls. 
The players prefer the challenge system because they want to protect the value of framing skills.
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