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The second road trip of the season (4-5 on the first one) sees the Blue Jays visit two of 2024's division champs.

Nobody said it was supposed to be easy.

The Astros aren't off to a great start, mainly because they're not scoring a lot of runs. Obviously, they miss Kyle Tucker. More to the point, Yordan Alvarez is off to a slow start. But that still beats what's been happening with Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz, who have both been bad, bad, very bad.

Tucker isn't coming back, but none of those other things seem likely to continue much longer. Alvarez has always been - well, he hasn't exactly been a slow starter. It's just that he generally gets better and better the deeper we get into the season. It's still April, which gives one hope that he might not inflict too much pain this week. He might not. He's still Yordan Alvarez, and hurting pitchers is what he does.

Houston is surviving because their pitching has been very good. The Jays saw Hunter Brown last July, and didn't enjoy themselves - Brown tossed six innings of two-hit shutout. Yariel Rodriguez was almost as good, allowing just two hits while working into the seventh inning. Trouble was, one of those hits was a solo homer by Jeremy Pena. (Yordan Alvarez added a two-run blast in the ninth off Zach Pop.)

Still, two hits! That's two more hits than they managed the last time they faced Ronel Blanco down at Enron Memorial, when Blanco tossed the game's first, and only, April Fool's No-Hitter. I noted at the time that this was 17th no-hitter for the Houston franchise, and only three other teams - all of whom had been around at least half a century longer - could account for more. They even got a couple of no-hitters when they were the Houston Colt 45s.

And they're 16-1 when their pitcher throws a no-hitter, so it's usually worked pretty well for them.

Matchups

Mon 21 Apr - Gausman (2-1, 2.49) vs Brown (2=1, 1.50)
Tue 22 Apr - Bassitt (2-0, 0.77) vs Blanco (1-2, 6.48)
Wed 23 Apr - Francis (2-2, 3.13) vs Gusto (2-1, 3.18)
Toronto at Houston, April 21-23 | 75 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Monday, April 21 2025 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#459193) #
Pretty sad that Gimenez is batting 5th and it’s probably the right spot for him in this lineup.

Garcia and Hoffman are fresh for the series. It would be nice if the Jays offense showed up occasionally to help out the pitching staff. Schneider chose not to use them both in a tie game when it would have been their 3rd time pitching in 4 days - if that’s a limitation, it’s best not to automatically use them when you’re up 3 late.
Kelekin - Monday, April 21 2025 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#459194) #
Congrats to Nick Kurtz on his call-up. Quick, send them Loperfido for Rooker!
knuckeler - Monday, April 21 2025 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#459195) #
Yeah, like Schneider I don't have much hope for Loperfido to make it, too many holes in his long swing and doesn't make much contact.
Gerry - Monday, April 21 2025 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#459196) #
Hunter Brown is pretty impressive.
lexomatic - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#459197) #
Yikes. I guess we hit a rough patch.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#459199) #
That game 2 loss vs SEA really stings. That shoulda been a win. Lucas blowing up was expected. And then last night was just a legit bad game. Now it's turned into an unfortunate mini-slump.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#459200) #

Plausible Best Lineup using this Year's Stats Only


* 1. RF Springer: 74pa, .425obp, 185wrc+, 6.1war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero: 102pa, .392obp, 135wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 3. SS Bichette: 108pa, .352obp, 117wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 4. 2B Gimenez: 98pa, .286obp, 88wrc+, 2.0war/650
* 5. C Alejandro: 69pa, .275obp, 71wrc+, 1.9war/650
* 6. LF Roden: 68pa, .294obp, 82wrc+, 1.9war/650
* 7. DH Santander: 102pa, .265obp, 67wrc+, -1.9war/650
* 8. 3B Wagner: 56pa, .309obp, 75wrc+, -2.3war/650
* 9. CF Straw: 42pa, .350obp, 131wrc+, 7.7war/650

* X. UT Schneider: 21pa, .333obp, 57wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Lukes: 34pa, .303obp, 64wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Clement: 58pa, .263obp, 51wrc+, 1.1war/650
* X. C Heineman: 27pa, .519obp, 270wrc+, 11.3war/650

* X. UT Barger: 16pa, .125obp, -28wrc+, 0.0war/650




Using Past 1 Calendar Year:

* 1. LF Lukes: 125pa, .351obp, 114wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero: 704pa, .401obp, 167wrc+, 5.3war/650
* 3. DH Santander: 684pa, .304obp, 122wrc+, 2.7war/650
* 4. RF Springer: 598pa, .315obp, 107wrc+, 2.0war/650
* 5. 3B Wagner: 142pa, .326obp, 106wrc+, 1.8war/650
* 6. C Alejandro: 390pa, .318obp, 98wrc+, 4.8war/650
* 7. CF Varsho: 444pa, .291obp, 94wrc+, 3.7war/650
* 8. 2B Clement: 467pa, .280obp, 88wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 9. SS Bichette: 361pa, .296obp, 82wrc+, 1.1war/650

* X. UT Roden: 68pa, .294obp, 82wrc+, 1.9war.650
* X. OF Straw: 46pa, .341obp, 123wrc+, 7.1war/650
* X. IF Gimenez: 640pa, .288obp, 79wrc+, 2.4war/650
* X. C Heineman: 43pa, .442obp, 186wrc+, 13.6war/650

* X. UT Schneider: 430pa, .284obp, 77wrc+, 0.3war/650
* X. OF Loperfido: 262pa, .264obp, 74wrc+, 0.2war/650
* X. IF Jimenez: 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650
* X. C Bethancourt: 124pa, .279obp, 96wrc+, 3.7war/650

* X. UT Barger: 241pa, .242obp, 63wrc+, -0.8war/650
* X. UT Stefanic: 124pa, .301obp, 63wrc+, -2.1war/650




Using Updated Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

* 1. SS Bichette: 541pa, .328obp, 121wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero: 577pa, .372obp, 151wrc+, 4.5war/650
* 3. DH Santander: 583pa, .314obp, 124wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 4. 3B Wagner: 378pa, .346obp, 117wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 5. RF Springer: 517pa, .325obp, 115wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 6. LF Roden: 372pa, .336obp, 113wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 7. C Alejandro: 368pa, .341obp, 117wrc+, 6.2war/650
* 8. CF Varsho: 480apa, .302obp, 110wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 9. 2B Gimenez: 547pa, .320obp, 109wrc+, 4.5war/650

* X. UT Schneider: 90pa, .321obp, 111wrc+, 2.2war/650
* X. OF Lukes: 90pa, .332obp, 111wrc+, 2.9war/650
* X. IF Clement: 270pa, .299obp, 101wrc+, 3.1war/650
* X. C Heineman: 121pa, .316obp, 93wrc+, 4.3war/650

* X. UT Barger: 102pa, .310obp, 109wrc+, 3.2war/650
* X. OF Clase: 24pa, .302obp, 97wrc+, 2.7war/650
* X. IF Jimenez: 24pa, .330obp, 111wrc+, 2.7war/650
* X. C Bethancourt: 66pa, .276obp, 95wrc+, 3.0war/650

* X. UT Orelvis: 90pa, .279obp, 93wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. OF Loperfido: 42pa, .285obp, 91wrc+, 1.6war/650
* X. OF Berroa: 12pa, .296obp, 87wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Straw: 60pa, .301obp, 81wrc+, 2.2war/650




uglyone - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#459206) #

Ryan Burr (shoulder) threw a bullpen on Tuesday at Blue Jays complex in Dunedin

Burr's getting close to facing hitters but may throw one more bullpen prior to that step

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) April 22, 2025

Erik Swanson (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Wednesday then get into a game on Saturday at Blue Jays extended spring training

If all goes well there, he’ll begin a rehab assignment next week

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) April 22, 2025
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#459207) #
If 26-year-old Ben Rice is this good (currently .299/.405/.642 in 79 PA), the Yankees are going to be that much tougher to beat this year. The 12th-round draft pick crushed it in the minors, too (.935 OPS across four seasons).

He hit his sixth HR off Bibee T1 today to give New York a 1-0 lead over the Guardians.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#459208) #
Blue Jays opponents have been split 50/50 in positive and negative Run Differential.

Jays are currently a negative differential team in runs. The complaints about lack of power and offense are probably on point.

The Yankees...I am not very concerned about them without Cole. No way they sustain the pace. More concerning would be the Red Sox playing bad and still sitting in 2nd place entering tonight. More concerning are the Rays who may get their ace back and are a positive differential team who can quickly climb the standings.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#459210) #
Cleveland is now up 3-2 on the Yankees in the 7th. Could be an opportunity for the Blue Jays to pick up a game in the standings, if they can finally get their offense in gear.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#459211) #
The Leafs are doing the Jays a solid.
JB21 - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#459212) #
"if they can finally get their offense in gear."

any year now
knuckeler - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#459213) #
Very poor decision by Schneider to give Santana a day off so early in the season especially after the team had a day off 5 days ago and have another one day after tomorrow.
Santana is getting paid 12,ooo,ooo a year to play...not sit on the bench.
So what happens with first Astro's batter Altuve, he starts with a ground ball that imo should have been caught, I think Santana would have got it, which goes off replacement Wagner's glove and Altuve comes around to score first inning. What a punch in the gut.
Shouldn't have happened.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#459214) #
The Blue Jays offense was great in 2021 and seems to have been slowly fizzling year-over-year ever since. Different faces, different coaches, different hitting philosophies, different magnitudes of contract handed out to veteran players — and same low-powered output.

It’s early, of course. Nice to see Lukes post a home run.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#459215) #
Gimenez and Varsho are Brothers from Different Mothers - elite defenders, good base runners and cavernous holes in their swing.
Glevin - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#459216) #
This team just has so many feeble at bats. Soft groudners, lazy fly balls, 4 pitch K's, etc... Jays are easily last in the league in bat speed so don't see that changing without roster changes.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#459217) #
In the off-season I felt the better part of the lineup would not be “thick” enough without another strong bat (like Alonso), and that reality is now quite evident on the field.
knuckeler - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#459218) #
I agree greenfrog, I was hoping they might sign Alonso also as there has been a power outage ever since they "got rid of" Teoscar and changed the outfield fences and "feel" of the ball park.
It was very interesting to see during the preamble before todays game they showed a graphic showing the Jays have "easily" faced the highest percentage of high velocity pitchers so far this year in the league so far. What are the odds of that?
I am not paranoid but sometimes these sort of things, which always works against the Jays, makes me wonder.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#459219) #
Bassitt has been just fantastic this year.
knuckeler - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#459220) #
Interesting stuff, and yeah you are right lol.
I couldn't help but notice in Buffalo's lineup tonight in order batting 3,4,5,and 6 were Varsho, Schneider, Loperfido and Martinez which gave a whole new meaning to me of Murderer's Row lol.
They didn't do too bad collectively got 5 hits in 20 AB's with 5 SO's
knuckeler - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#459221) #
Yeah greenfrog, he has done really well keeping the hitters off balance with his variety of pitches and that slow sweeping curve he's got.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#459222) #
On the bright side, the offense is so brutal that they are losing games without using the top end of the bullpen.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#459223) #
Also on the bright side, Tor 3, Ott 2 (OT). Hope springs eternal.
mathesond - Tuesday, April 22 2025 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#459224) #
Another for the bright side ledger - The Jays got all their scoring via the long ball. None of this trying to string a bunch of singles together nonsense!`
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#459225) #
Out of curiosity:

How frustrating is this Jays team again?

How many MLB teams do you watch besides Toronto?

Is that team(s) any different from Toronto in feebleness and if so how and how can the home 9 change their fortunes if there is indeed a problem.
James W - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#459226) #
How frustrating is this Jays team again?

Very.

How many MLB teams do you watch besides Toronto?

Just one. Whoever the Jays are playing.

Is that team(s) any different from Toronto in feebleness and if so how and how can the home 9 change their fortunes if there is indeed a problem.

Usually - the other team can usually hit. The Jays would be served well by hitting better.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#459227) #
The two teams closest to the Jays from a Runs Scored / Against perspective are the Pirates and the Braves. They’re both well below .500.

It’s crazy how much the start to this season is resembling last year. I have more hope this year (thank you Hoffman and Santander), but for the more negative among us I’m sure that’s a dark omen.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#459228) #
A better plan might help occasionally. Against Brown, a few Jays watched first pitches go right down the middle, only to swing at less hittable pitches later in their AB. Vladdy's 3rd AB comes to mind - with Bichette on first, he took a middle-middle 96mph first pitch fastball and then grounded into a double play on a changeup. It looked like he never had any intention of swinging at the pitch, which is a weird strategy when you've already seen the guy's stuff twice that night. Santander did the same thing too.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#459231) #
After a string of 18-20 games filled with good ABs the approach has definitely faltered a bit in the past few games. Some perspective probably doesn't hurt though - no team is as bad as they look when they're in a slump. Having said that, offence is going to be an issue this year - I mean, how many hitters on the team would you confidently predict will be above average hitters (wRC+ of 100 or better)? I count two - Vladdy and Santander.
Cracka - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#459232) #
It hasn't helped that we've faced top-tier starters for the last seven games straight: Schwellenbach, Strider, Woo, Gilbert, Castillo, Brown, and Blanco. All are/were arguably among the top 50 starters over the past 1-2 seasons. Looking ahead, we will likely face just three top-tier guys in the next 10 games (Fried, Crochet, Bibee), which is much more normal than the last week.

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#459234) #
If you want to be a playoff team, you have to beat the good pitching...

If you're a star player, you have to beat the good pitchers once in a while...
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#459236) #
I find Marc's comment is kind of how I feel about this team. I hear the complaints and concerns about the offense and approach etc etc but at the end of the day the stars on this team don't deliver at the plate when it counts. Certainly not the way guys like Bautista, Donaldson and EE did. It's a subjective point of view that is probably, maybe?, backed up with data. It aligns with Marc's simple comment.

I guess that leaves it at "500 million doesn't get you much these days," or "it can only improve he's still young."
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#459237) #
Which 26-year-old is going to produce more on-field value this year?

a) Ben Rice (contract: 1/$782,800)

b) Vladdy (contract: 14/$500,000,000)

You can make a case for Vladdy based on his longer track record. But currently Rice has 1.0 fWAR to Vladdy’s 0.5 fWAR.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#459239) #
Every player has a hot streak. Safe to say Rice won't stay this hot. Just like Davis Schneider didn't. Heck, Rice's hot streak over 82 PA isn't at the Schneider level - 286/390/614 is damn fine, but Schneider was 276/404/603 over 141 (including that horrid 0-31 streak he had that year (his first 102 PA was a Bondsian 370/500/815 which made his fast collapse all the more amazing - how can you hit that for that long and collapse as much as he has).
92-93 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#459240) #
I wonder what went in to Schneider's decision to go Barger-Wagner-Roden in the order tonight. He's probably chasing the big swing with Barger's power. I'd have Roden, who looks like a nifty LFer, ahead of Wagner.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#459244) #
Ben Rice vs Vladdy is crazy. Are we going to use WAR to champion players like Rice and Grisham while devaluing others like Vladdy, Moreno, Marte, etc all? That Juan Soto is terrible with 0.4 WAR. Sure bet those Mets regret that deal built on half a decade + of statistics.
JB21 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#459245) #
Vlad's March/April 2024 #'s 229/331/348 (91 OPS+)
Vlad's March/April 2025 #'s 278/377/378 (118 OPS+)
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#459247) #
dalimon, while being a bit cheeky, I was actually seriously comparing Rice and Vladdy in terms of on-field value for money spent.

I recommend checking out Rice's Baseball Savant page to get a sense of his underlying hitting metrics this year. His stats are a sea of red (97th-100th percentile in many categories). As I mentioned the other day, he crushed it in the minors as well (.935 OPS, 56 HR in 1013 PA).

He might be as valuable a hitter as Vladdy right now. Maybe more valuable. And orders of magnitude cheaper.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#459248) #
Francis gives up his usual first hit of the game. This remains weird.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#459249) #
It wasn't a hr
Eephus - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#459250) #
This is worryingly starting to remind me of the past two seasons all over again, wherein my instinct is to just turn the game off whenever the team falls behind by two or more runs (even in the second inning).

As we've all beaten to death, it's such a difficult tightrope to traverse when your pitching needs to be nearly mistake-free every single game because nobody in your lineup seems capable of producing a big hit. It's fun and tense baseball when it works... and boy does it make you wanna rip your hair out when it doesn't.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#459251) #
It’s not just the big hit. It’s also about setting the table. Two-thirds of the hitters in the Blue Jays lineup have an OBP below .300.

As for power, only one (!) hitter in today’s lineup has a slugging percentage of .375 or more (Springer). That is…kind of pathetic.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#459252) #
This whole series has felt like the Astros are the older brother playing against their little brother’s T-ball team. The Astros are about to mess up the Jays hair and tell them “good effort”.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#459253) #
We hangy, they bangy. They hangy, we no bangy.
Glevin - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#459254) #
Just pathetic abs one after another. So hard to watch. I expect Vlad will be fine and Santander will be better but it's a lineup filled with guys who can't hit. They aren't hitting the ball hard, aren't getting hits, have no power. This would likely be a much smaller deal if it weren't for the last two seasons and this feels very much the same.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#459255) #
I remember a Twins fan saying he felt sorry for Blue Jays fans when the front office hired Popkins. I hope he wasn’t right in that assessment.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#459256) #
I was trying to be optimistic prior to this season, but this is just a continuation of 2023 and 2024. Some different faces, but same general results. I'm sure things will get better when Vlad and Santander have a real hot streak, but that won't solve the issues with the rest of the lineup. It's weak hitting singles hitters up and down the order, and it is by design given how highly the FO talks about Roden and Wagner. I don't think you can reasonably expect Popkins or anyone else to get Gimenez, Roden, Wagner, Clement, Kirk, Lukes, etc, to hit for meaningful power. Springer has turned things around, and Bo's expected numbers are very good (he's pulling the ball more than he has in years). The lineup just has too many contact oriented hitters who aren't hitting the ball with any authority. It's not a recipe for success.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#459257) #
Hey, at least they put up a fight against Hader.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#459258) #
Nice try! Good effort!
Eephus - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#459259) #
Those good vibes were fun while they lasted, huh.

I'm also extremely worried about Alejandro Kirk's bat. People have mentioned he looks off balance for some reason in the box and I agree... which isn't helped by the fact he's also flailing away at pitches out and up in the strikezone (which he didn't do with this kind of frequency before). Preseason I was hoping to see two of Springer, Kirk, Gimenez and Bichette rebound to at least league average production for the team to have success, but that was also predicated on two of them (Gimenez and Kirk) not actually being even worse than before. 

It doesn't much matter anyhow when nobody in your lineup aside from your 35 year old outfielder is swinging the bat with any kind of authority. The franchise's total inability to home-grow even one hitting star in the past half-decade really has been the undoing of this era. 

Sigh. Back to watching basketball.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, April 23 2025 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#459260) #
They had 9 hits the entire series. Which ties the franchise record for fewest hits in a three game series, set last April, in Houston.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#459262) #
When Kirk came up in the 9th, I knew there was no way we were going anywhere.. Right now, his bat is where any kind of momentum goes to die.. Well, and Santander.
knuckeler - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#459263) #
"When Kirk came up in the 9th, I knew there was no way we were going anywhere.. Right now, his bat is where any kind of momentum goes to die.. Well, and Santander."

You can insert any Jay in that category as all but Straw and Springer are doing worse than their career averages.

Pretty god awful to be honest, the Jays ain't going anywhere but the basement in the East, regardless of their pitching and defense at this rate.

Man do I miss Teoscor now.
Michael - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#459264) #
If you do WRC for MLB since 2020 Teoscar is 24th in all of baseball with 411. Vlad is 5th with 524, but no other current jay in top 25 (Semien 18th with 431).

If you do most HR since 2020, Teoscar is 12th with 138, Vlad is 8th with 146, the only other current Jay in the top 25 is Santander at 136 (15th).

But the top 10 HR since 2020 for the current Jays has:

1 Vlad 146
2 Santander 136
3 Springer 103
4 Bo 82
5 Varsho 79
6 Gimenez 52
7 Kirk 37
8 Clement 16
9 Barger 7
10 Straw 6

Having 2 of the top 25 is good, but the team certainly falls off, and if the 2 you have aren't hitting them for whatever reason, you are in trouble.

Compare to say Baltimore that top out with O'Neill (97), Mountcastle (92), and Mullins (88) but have 12 guys on the current roster with 25+. Or the Yankees that have a 10 guys 20+ including a top 3 of Judge (212), Stanton (121), and Goldschmidt (120). Or the Astros that similarly have a comperable top 3 of Alvarez (139), Walker (115), Altuve (104), but again have 10 30+ and 11 at 28, 12 at 15.

Young guys don't have the track record, so Barger may be legit power given the short experience, but the Jays need the top 2 to be hitting the HR and/or the rest of the roster to be overdelivering, but can't have neither.
mathesond - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#459265) #
It could be worse - imagine what Phillies fans are going through:

"It is possible to accurately calculate the Philadelphia Phillies' record based only on the current state of the team's NBC Sports Philadelphia postgame show, but doing so requires context: It is late April, and the Phillies have just gotten swept by the Mets, who, in the interest of not burying the lede, currently have the best record in all of Major League Baseball; and we are talking about Philly local sports media. So while, say, a 10–15 record would be a perfectly reasonable guess for the day after a postgame commentator asks if it's "time to sound the alarm," astute advanced models will be sure to recalibrate to a much more average 13–12. Which happens to actually be the team's record! Congratulations to all parties involved.

John Kruk, Phillies color commentator and noted voice of reason, tried his best to slow the show's roll. "I don't know how you make up three games in 130 games left, or 130-something games left," he said on Tuesday night, sarcastically, in response to the sound-the-alarm question. "It's going to be tough when the season's winding down like it is." (At the time, the Phillies had 138 games left to play.) He continued, "My God, what are we talking about?" An excellent philosophical question, as initially posed by Raymond Carver: What do we talk about when we talk about late-April baseball?"
pooks137 - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#459266) #
When Kirk came up in the 9th, I knew there was no way we were going anywhere.. Right now, his bat is where any kind of momentum goes to die.. Well, and Santander.

When watching it on PVR, my immediate thought was that Schneider was simply trying to skip Kirk's blackhole in the lineup when he reviewed the phantom HBP when Hader bounced a ball between his feet.

Putting Kirk on first when you already have Clement and Springer on 2nd & 3rd with 1 out doesn't help your Win Probability much by setting up a potential game-ending double play on any groundball.

GabrielSyme - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#459269) #
Let's talk a little about Addison Barger. If you aren't paying close attention, he looks horrible: one double and one walk in seven games and 18 plate appearances. It's a little reminiscent of his terrible debut last year.

It's a very small sample, even on the pitch level, but that's what stabilizes first, and Barger has shown extremely good swing decisions - swinging at almost nothing outside the zone and almost everything in the zone. His contact rate has increased overall, but it hasn't come at the expense of hard contact: his exit velocity is up from last year and borderline elite.

So on the whole, I think Barger's performance has been very promising and we should hope he continues to get playing time.
pooks137 - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#459270) #
It would be helpful if one of Wagner, Barger or Roden could get hot so they could move up in the order.

Having all 3 LHH bat 7-8-9 yesterday was certainly suboptimal in giving opposing managers easy bullpen decisions and really forces John Schneider's hand burning pinchhitters simply to break up the run later on.

GabrielSyme - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#459272) #
With lots of the lineup hitting poorly, it isn't so much that you need one of Wagner, Barger or Roden to hit more to justify them hitting higher, you can just drop Kirk down to hit seventh.
uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#459273) #
even though he'll peter out quickly we should still probably try to play Heineman every 2nd game or so until he actually cools off or until Kirk heats up.

Straw's hot streak is likely already done with now but we were right to stick him in there more when we did.

the biggest problem of course is Santander. This lineup isn't built to sustain their big offseason bad hitting not even well enough for bench duty. He'll get hot eventually of course. And we should ahve always expected this one-tool low-obp guy to be streaky. But this must be approaching one of the worst slumps of his recent career now.

at this point Varsho coming back and just hitting at his normal league average level would be a nice boost to the lineup.

and i still think Lukes should be getting as much opportunity as any of the other borderline guys.

Glevin - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#459274) #
"So on the whole, I think Barger's performance has been very promising and we should hope he continues to get playing time."

I'd rather he got hot in the minors and were brought up. He had a 99 WRC+ in AAA so far this year. Roden is the guy I like the most out of the group and should be playing most days IMO but with him, Wagner, Lukes, Barger, and Straw it's a whole lot of meh in the lineup everyday. Aside from Springer and a couple of backups, everyone is to blame . Bo hasn't hit a HR since last May (over 300 PAs!!!) and doesn't take any pitches. Last night, I think he had 4 Abs on 4 pitches. Vlad is still making horrible swing decisions in key abs and only has 1 HR. Santander has been useless. The rest of the guys are can't hit at all. It's a team effort.
knuckeler - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#459276) #
"at this point Varsho coming back and just hitting at his normal league average level would be a nice boost to the lineup."

It would if he does it, but judging from his performance so far rehabbing in Buffalo of 1 hit in 12 AB's in a admittedly small sample size, I would say the most probable outcome would be great defense and poor contact, truly joining the rest of the team's abysmal offense.
uglyone - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#459277) #
well Varsho's carrying tool has always been power, which we need.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#459278) #
I hope the Blue Jays aren't counting on lazily finishing third or fourth in the division and still garnering a WC berth. It's not clear to me that some or all of the WC spots are going to go to AL East teams this year.
John Northey - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#459279) #
I suspect the Jays are shooting for about 90 wins - normally enough to slip in (outside of 2021 of course).
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#459280) #
Count me in the minority who thinks they and 5 other teams (if not more) are all trying to win as many games as possible. It's not like they can decide which players sign with them or which players to trade for. If they end up at 85 wins it's because it's the best they could do with what they were able to put together and not because they arbitrarily cap themselves off at 85 wins as if they are filling up a car with gas with a trigger to cut off once the desired total is reached.

I don't think they were going for "all contact, less than 3 runs scored per game, bullpen burned out by end of May!" strategy. I don't think the Rays planned for injuries and it's not like they have the resources to have back up plan. This is what MLB is and fans need to adjust. There is no perfect team. They is no team that will score more runs than they allow every night. Pretending FO's with payrolls as high as the top 5 want to cap their wins...I don't share the popular sentiment.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#459281) #
Well, there are teams that sort of cap themselves this way, including one of the AL WC contenders — the M’s. Here’s an AI summary about this:

“Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners' President of Baseball Operations, has publicly stated that his goal for the team over a 10-year period is to achieve a .540 winning percentage. He has said that teams that win around 54% of their games over a decade tend to make the postseason and even the World Series.”

A .540 winning percentage over a 162-game season is 87.48 wins.
John Northey - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#459282) #
I think the M's way of looking at it makes sense - #1 is to make the playoffs, extra wins beyond what that takes are nearly worthless. Being the best team in the regular season slightly ups your odds of winning it all, but it rarely makes sense fiscally to push that hard. The Dodgers are going for a super-team due to their big time push into the Japanese market, trying to do a Yankee thing there - becoming THE #1 team, seeing there is long term value in that vs "just" winning.

The Jays had that moment in the 1990/1991 offseason - after years of being a contender and getting into the playoffs a couple of times Gillick figured out the time was right to do whatever it took to build a mega team. They didn't quite do that, but 3 playoffs and 2 WS titles later it was damn good enough. Sadly, Ash took over and had no clue what to do with that strong of a team with a deep minor league system and blew it quickly, dead last in '95 and never a real contender until 2015 (2 GM's later).
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 24 2025 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#459283) #
Seattle's budget is half of Toronto's...using them as an example highlights why teams limited by budget set caps, to my point. It does not explain why Toronto would spend 250 million or so in order to limit their wins.
Michael - Friday, April 25 2025 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#459284) #
That 540 isn't an unreasonable goal when looking at a 10 year period. He isn't saying only try to win 87 games a season, he's saying when you look back over a long enough time to have both rebuilding and competing seasons, sell off seasons and go for it playoff seasons, if you are averaging 87 wins you are doing pretty well.

For instance, over the past 10 years, there are only 4 teams that have done that well. Dodgers (621), Astros (586), Yankees (570), Guardians (554). Everyone else is worse that that. The rest of the top 10 are Cubs, Rays, Brewers, Braves, Cardinals, Red Sox and span from 539 to 532 and then there's another big gap to Seattle at 513 (Jays are 13th at 510).

So 540 winning percentage from Seattle would be an improvement by about 4 W/season over what they've done when they've been a good average top of the middle of the pack team.

I think pretty much only Dodgers and Yankees can realistically expect to be better than 540 over a decade sustainably (at least with how current teams run payroll/management - any team that is willing to spend at the very top of baseball and run that spending well can join them).
greenfrog - Friday, April 25 2025 @ 04:09 AM EDT (#459285) #
The other thing about 540 is that it’s aspirational over a longer time frame (a decade), not a floor that must be hit every year. In 2024 the M’s played 525 ball and missed the playoffs. In 2023 the M’s played 543 ball and missed the playoffs. In 2022, they played 556 baseball and made the playoffs (as we remember all too well).

DiPoto’s 540 metric has come in for sone mockery in Seattle, even if it’s a reasonable goal to set, if you can assemble the talent to field a team that has a good chance of attaining it every year.

I think the Blue Jays would love to play 540 baseball in 2025. That would far exceed the predictions of most commentators for the team. 540 (and hopefully a postseason appearance that includes at least one series win) would be largely “mission accomplished” for Atkins and Shapiro. The fact that they have an expensive roster is not evidence of trying to win, say,100 games; the front office is simply trying to be competitive (unlike 2024) to attract fans and preserve their jobs. They have to spend a lot because the farm system has been weak in recent years.
ayjackson - Friday, April 25 2025 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#459286) #
You'd expect .500 over longer periods of time. So .540 represents 8% over average over the long term. I imagine that is pretty good. Not sure what the distribution looks like for but it seems like that might be close 75th percentile.
dalimon5 - Friday, April 25 2025 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#459287) #
Basically you started off questioning if this FO is lazily trying to sneak into the playoffs then you ended at a point suggesting they are trying to keep their jobs and attract fans. Do you think they will do that if they "lazily finish third or fourth in the division?" I think we can both agree that you don't spend a quarter billion dollars to "stay afloat" competitively. That's silly thinking im my humble opinion. We can agree that they might finish in the standing but it's not for lack of trying it's because they haven't demonstrated they are good enough to develop the farm or drive up offense on the MLB club. I don't think our views are all that different except you want to tie the results to the intention of the front office as if the poor performances and results are pre-meditated. Would you assume the same thing for Vlad? That he is content to hit 25-30 HR and be a streaky hitter with terrible base running just because he hasn't demonstrated the ability yet to be a consistent 35+ HR hitter year in and year out?

You: "The fact that they have an expensive roster is not evidence of trying to win, say,100 games; the front office is simply trying to be competitive (unlike 2024) to attract fans and preserve their jobs."

Me: "Seattle's budget is half of Toronto's...using them as an example highlights why teams limited by budget set caps, to my point. It does not explain why Toronto would spend 250 million or so in order to limit their wins."

You: "Well, there are teams that sort of cap themselves this way, including one of the AL WC contenders — the M’s. Here’s an AI summary about this:

Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners' President of Baseball Operations, has publicly stated that his goal for the team over a 10-year period is to achieve a .540 winning percentage. He has said that teams that win around 54% of their games over a decade tend to make the postseason and even the World Series. A .540 winning percentage over a 162-game season is 87.48 wins."

Me: "Count me in the minority who thinks they and 5 other teams (if not more) are all trying to win as many games as possible."

You: "I hope the Blue Jays aren't counting on lazily finishing third or fourth in the division and still garnering a WC berth. It's not clear to me that some or all of the WC spots are going to go to AL East teams this year."
soupman - Friday, April 25 2025 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#459288) #
The World Series continues to become less meaningful to me as teams are trying to “solve” MLB in this manner. Plus the on field product is basically just glorified slo-pitch at this point. I’ll watch Skenes start against the dodgers tonight though.
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