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Well, Blue Jays. You now have our undivided attention.

The Padres are cruising along at a .600 clip, which only gets you second place in their division. Manny Machado is hitting like a star, Fernando Tatis is hitting like a superhero, and sophomore centre fielder Jackson Merrill has been better than both.

The Jays will miss Michael King and Nick Pivetta, who have been San Deigo's best starters so far. On the other hand, Vasquez and Kolek, a pair of right-handers of no particular distinction, have been much more effective than is at all reasonable. Time to put an end to that, I say.

Matchups

Tue 20 May - Cease (1-2, 4.60) vs Bassitt (3-2, 3.16)
Wed 21 May - Vasquez (3-3, 3.45) vs Gausman (3-4, 4.59)
Thu 22 May - Kolek (2-1, 2.33) vs Francis (2-6, 5.63)

San Diego at Toronto, May 20-22 | 121 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
pooks137 - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#460136) #
I'd quibble with the "journeyman" label for both Randy Vazquez & Stephen Kolek, but do agree they both seem "undistinguished" as I'd never heard of either of them.

How many organizations does one have to pass through before being bestowed with the "journeyman" tag?

Vazquez is turning 27 this year, was an international signing out of the DR and was part of the Soto deal with the Yankees. San Diego is only his second org AFAICT. Doesn't look like he was a top prospect, as he was only on a Top 100 list once.

I'd argue a guy only being traded once isn't a journeyman.

Kolek is on his third org, being drafted by the Dodgers and seemingly later purchased by Seattle.

It looks like he came to the Padres after being picked two offseasons ago in the Rule 5 and somehow surviving the whole year in their pen.

Being his third org, he's likely closer to the journeyman tag.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#460137) #
https://x.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1924920015108591816
Magpie - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#460138) #
I'd quibble with the "journeyman" label

You would, would you?

OK. Fair enough!
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#460144) #
Plausible best lineup using...


... this year's stats only:

* 1. DH Springer 165pa, .344bip, .374obp, 140wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 203pa, .333bip, .394obp, 137wrc+
* 3. CF Varsho 57pa, .214bip, .263obp, 138wrc+
* 4. SS Bichette 211pa, .340bip, .341obp, 121wrc+
* 5. C Kirk 142pa, .308bip, .310obp, 95wrc+
* 6. LF Lukes 88pa, .259bip, .349obp, 118wrc+
* 7. RF Straw 81pa, .361bip, .333obp, 111wrc+
* 8. 3B Barger 80pa, .268bip, .288obp, 97wrc+
* 9. 2B Clement 134pa, .308bip, .295obp, 82wrc+

* B. UT Santander 178pa, .216bip, .264obp, 64wrc+
* B. OF Roden 84pa, .214bip, .262obp, 53wrc+
* B. IF Gimenez 143pa, .220bip, .273obp, 68wrc+
* B. C Heineman 47pa, .457bip, .404obp, 171wrc+

* X. UT Schneider 21pa, .143bip, .333obp, 54wrc+
* X. OF Clase 25pa, .188bip, .125obp, -28wrc+
* X. IF Wagner 68pa, .250bip, .284obp, 52wrc+
* X. IF Stefanic 8pa, .286bip, .250obp, 39wrc+



....using Past 1 Calendar Year stats:

* 1. RF Springer 605pa, .275bip, .332obp, 117wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 707pa, .340bip, .402obp, 168wrc+
* 3. DH Santander 667pa, .225bip, .301obp, 118wrc+
* 4. C Kirk 436pa, .301bip, .326obp, 102wrc+
* 5. CF Varsho 415pa, .268bip, .285obp, 101wrc+
* 6. SS Bichette 375pa, .321bip, .312obp, 100wrc+
* 7. LF Lukes 179pa, .291bip, .360obp, 125wrc+
* 8. 3B Clement 499pa, .280bip, .290obp, 93wrc+
* 9. 2B Gimenez 586pa, .263bip, .281obp, 73wrc+

* B. UT Barger 287pa, .258bip, .273obp, 87wrc+
* B. OF Straw 85pa, .354bip, .329obp, 108wrc+
* B. IF Jimenez 210pa, .311bip, .329obp, 102wrc+
* B. C Heineman 61pa, .425bip, .377obp, 140wrc+

* X. UT Schneider 351pa, .224bip, .254obp, 55wrc+
* X. OF Loperfido 223pa, .302bip, .248obp, 65wrc+
* X. IF Wagner 154pa, .315bip, .314obp, 93wrc+
* X. C Bethancourt 90pa, .293bip, .281obp, 111wrc+

* X. UT Roden 84pa, .214bip, .262obp, 53wrc+
* X. OF Clase 63pa, .268bip, .258obp, 58wrc+
* X. IF Stefanic 132pa, .268bip, .298obp, 62wrc+
* X. C Sanchez 96pa, .230bip, .211obp, 11wrc+




....using Fangraphs Rest of Season Combined Projections:

* 1. SS Bichette 461pa, .323bip, .329obp, 118wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 486pa, .302bip, .373obp, 145wrc+
* 3. DH Santander 471pa, .255bip, .311obp, 117wrc+
* 4. C Kirk 317pa, .290bip, .314obp, 114wrc+
* 5. CF Varsho 441pa, .260bip, .297obp, 106wrc+
* 6. RF Springer 431pa, .279bip, .327obp, 111wrc+
* 7. 2B Gimenez 411pa, .294bip, .319obp, 103wrc+
* 8. 3B Barger 251p, .289bip, .310obp, 105wrc+
* 9. LF Lukes 150pa, .314bip, .337obp, 111wrc+

* B. UT Wagner 135pa, .315bip, .344obp, 111wrc+
* B. OF Roden 226pa, .290bip, .335obp, 108wrc+
* B. IF Clement 246pa, .282bip, .302obp, 97wrc+
* B. C Heineman 124pa, .291bip, .314obp, 88wrc+

* X. UT Stefanic 20pa, .313bip, .358obp, 111wrc+
* X. OF Schneider 65pa, .284bip, .321obp, 107wrc+
* X. IF Jimenez 20pa, .304bip, .334obp, 110wrc+
* X. C Bethancourt 23pa, .282bip, .278obp, 92wrc+

* X. UT Martinez 65pa, .257bip, .278obp, 87wrc+
* X. OF Loperfido 20pa, .310bip, .293obp, 92wrc+
* X. OF Clase 45pa, .303bip, .292obp, 86wrc+
* X. OF Straw 60pa, .296bip, .304obp, 79wrc+
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#460151) #
You look at the offensive projections, and it's really a bit of a mystery how this team could be only average so far. There's nobody in the starting nine with a below-average projection!

On another note, Heineman has hit so well that his projected hitting line, combined with his good defence, would now make him a solid starter for a fair number of teams. I'm not quite that optimistic about his offence, but even so, he's probably a bit of a luxury as a backup.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#460152) #
The sum is less than its parts.
Nigel - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#460153) #
Well some of those hitting projections, while possible, just aren't that likely.

I know that it would run counter to the whole L/R thing but I wouldn't mind seeing a line-up like tonight's but flipping Varsho and Kirk. The Jays best current chance at long sequence offence would be to pool Bichette, Vladdy, Kirk and Springer together in some order.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#460154) #
Bassitt seems to be getting some borderline calls tonight.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#460155) #
Bassitt seems to be getting some borderline calls tonight.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#460157) #
Vladdy is really finding his groove. wRC+ now up to 143.

Also, since dalimon mentioned the topic: Ben Rice is also 1/1 with a HR tonight (#10) and his wRC+ is up to 156.

Two sluggers doing well on the season.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#460158) #
I mean we have 10 guys at the moment who are above average or just barely under on the season, ignoring projections completely.

And that doesn't include Santander, who's always been well above average.

the question is whether the projections are too high on the unproven guys - Barger, Roden, Wagner, Schneider, Jimenez, Stefanic - all at the same time for some reason.
lexomatic - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#460159) #
I would say free agency- major or minor- doesn't matter. The roots come from trades & getting your guild papers and being able to travel and earn a living practicing that trade. Closest analog is free agency.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#460160) #
Sure would be nice to build a lead of a few runs or more, so that the Blue Jays don't have to go through the daily drama of preserving a razor-thin lead (or trying to overcome a razor-thin deficit) late in the game.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#460161) #
Whoa. Santander literally produced that few-runs lead while I was typing that. Good job, Anthony!
Magpie - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#460162) #
Well done. He never listens to me.
Glevin - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#460163) #
Rodriguez looking good for a while and suddenly Jays bullpen with Fluharty and Little/Garcia/Hoffman and Swanson and Sandlin coming back is looking pretty good and deep.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#460164) #
not too hopeful on Swanson being reliable but i like the rest of them and that Fisher guy has some promise i think.
pooks137 - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#460165) #
It's a nice problem to have with so many effective high leverage, one inning guys.

But as currently composed, and especially when Swanson & Sandlin come back, the pen really lacks a long man, many multi-inning guys or true garbage time mop up men.

In theory, a guy like Eric Lauer could fill the role if Turnbull or Scherzer ever take the 5th starter spot.

But it will be tough because there aren't many roster spots available at the back of the bullpen.

The Jays also don't want to seem to want to stretch out Jose Urena. So he might be the first cut when the roster crunch comes (after Fisher) much like Dillon Tate.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#460166) #
Gotta give a shout out to the manager for knocking Santander all the way down to the 6 hole a month and a half into his jays career. The only guys below him in the lineup being borderline guys fighting for their mlb lives.

That takes some cojones.
pooks137 - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#460167) #
The only guys below him in the lineup being borderline guys fighting for their mlb lives.

Barger, Clement and Lukes all have relative job security as 0.75 type MLB regulars at present (or at least until Gimenez comes back).

Stefanic and Clase are both below them on the depth chart. Clase should be the first cut because he has no role & has an option. But the FO seems to value him on the roster so Stefanic may be the next cut because he's AAAA and not getting playing time.

Heineman's job is safe for now. Straw has job security between his early season play and his salary.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#460168) #
I don't think any of Clement Lukes Barger are established mlbers, myself. And i doubt they think they are, either.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#460169) #
I don't get the love for Clase on the roster by the team right now. This is a young kid - unless they feel he has nothing more to learn in AAA (which seems odd to me) he is being wasted on a ML bench. 6 games, 21 PA, over the last 12 games (plus his 1 game call up with 4 PA). He is in his age 23 season so playing every other game isn't the way to produce an everyday player. Maybe the Jays see him as a pure backup/platoon guy going forward. But with Springer/Varsho/Santander all healthy and Lukes & Straw both playing well I don't see the point of having Clase up. That is 5 guys who deserve playing time ahead of him covering 4 slots. Of course, AAA is also overloaded with Roden (1.008 OPS), Robertson (814), Schneider (763), Loperfido (756) all getting playing time, and earning it. That is before factoring in anyone else who might be deserving DH time and the like. Clase was solid there (315/419/371) but not 'wow'. The club really needs to clear out some of these OF/DH types who are in AAA/majors. Yohendrick Pinango in AA (23) is hitting 350/462/608 in LF/RF/DH and needs to move up to AAA (he was part of the Nate Pearson deal). RJ Schreck also is hitting well (253/376/560) but until that average gets to 300 I wouldn't worry about a quick promotion (RF-LF-CF).

From having no one for the OF in the minors who was ready the Jays are now seeing a flood but mostly meh guys. Outside of Roden in AAA and Pinango in AA the stats are nice/solid but not 'WOW' and many are 25/26/27 which is near the end for prospect status and moving into 'hope I get a shot' status.
pooks137 - Tuesday, May 20 2025 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#460170) #
borderline fighting for their MLB lives

You hedge the "fighting for their MLB lives" with the "borderline" modifier, which dulls the hyperbole a tad.

That's why I said Clement, Lukes & Barger are "0.75 MLB regulars" presently - playing more than platoon players but also not quite everyday. At least with Gimenez hurt.

I agree that none of the three are bonafide "MLB regulars", but they are all close as the roster is constructed and nowhere close to fearing being cut without a prolonged run of futility.

Clement probably has the most job security simply because he is out of options and was on the 26-man for all of 2024. He hasn't shown quite as much power or contact ability as last year, but he's pretty safe as at least the utility guy with his defense (and the fact that both Jimenez & Kasevich are hurt).

Lukes is probably second in job security. He's playing almost everyday and has put up good offense. His main problem is that there's a glut of OFs between the vets Springer, Santander, Varsho & Straw and all the mediocre AAA types.

Barger probably has the least job security of the three. His defense at 3rd with Gimenez' injury has been a pleasant surprise. That makes it more likely that he'll stick around once Andres returns in a 3B platoon with Clement.

People have been pointing out that his swing metrics have been positive and are ahead of his actual results.

Addison is the most likely to lose his spot though if he goes through another long stretch unable to crack .200.

scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#460174) #
Pinango was traded for Pearson as a 22 year old in AA who needed roster protection.
Ironically, the Jays have swapped Pearson and Little who were drafted back to back in 2017.
Peason had the best stretch of his career following the trade but has been optioned  back to AAA this year.
Little is doing better with the Jays than he's ever done at AAA.
It seems the success comes from throwing around 45% knuckle curves and getting opponents to chase.

If anything, the glut of outfield players could give the Jays something to trade back at the deadline.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#460175) #
Don't want to keep arguing about it pooks but all three of those guys know full well they're needing to earn their mlb spots every day, not one of them has dibs on a starting spot at the moment and that there's plenty of guys gunning for their jobs with similar quality resumes who could steal them if they got hot like Roden Wagner Schneider Stefanic Loperfido Jimenez Clase Orelvis.
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#460177) #
Gotta give a shout out to the manager for knocking Santander all the way down to the 6 hole a month and a half into his jays career. The only guys below him in the lineup being borderline guys fighting for their mlb lives.

Don't want to keep arguing about it pooks

I get your point. Our differences seem to be about semantics.

But Barger, Clement & Lukes hit 7-8-9 behind Santander last night.

If one defines those 3 as "fighting for their MLB lives" at present, then essentially any pre-arb (or arb years) player without a multi-year expensive deal or who isn't a pre-FA phenom is considered a "borderline" guy having to fear being cut at any moment.

pooks137 - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#460178) #
Speaking of Barger, Sportsnet had a recent story about his development arc.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/inside-the-rare-origin-story-of-blue-jays-addison-barger/

Select excerpts

The tale begins with his parents, Adam and Leah, who started a successful software business and had their four sons in the Seattle area before moving to Florida to pursue Bible studies.

The family bought a large piece of land northeast of Tampa, and before a house was even constructed, Adam, an avid baseball fan, built a full-sized diamond on it. His sons, Ken, Connor and Luke, all played but weren't drawn to the sport in the way that the youngest, Addison, was.

Barger was homeschooled and, from a very young age, his routine revolved around baseball. Adam hired Luis Arzeno, a Dominican former catcher and first baseman in the Philadelphia Phillies' minor-league system, to work every day with his son, developing his body and advancing his skills.

"Addison was a late bloomer," Arzeno says. "To be drafted in the United States, you need to run, you need to throw, you need to hit, and you need to have size. He didn't have that size."

Barger also didn't benefit from the on-field development associated with playing for a high-school team like other freshmen his age, and Adam felt this would eventually hurt his draft chances. He sought to expedite his son's progress and, along with Arzeno, devised a plan for Barger to compete in the Dominican Prospect League showcase.

...

"I was just a young kid," Barger remembers. "I was 14 years old and easily the smallest. All these kids are huge, and I was probably five-foot-two, 100 pounds. I was a tiny kid (who) was just thrown into the fire. It was good for me, but it was scary, it was hard."

...

The next summer, Adam and Arzeno worked to find another way for Barger to level up. This time, they created a travel ball team and invited 15 Dominican teenagers from the prospect showcase to live and train at the Barger household while competing with him in tournaments against top teenage talent in Florida.

Adam outfitted his garage into a gym, and above it was a 900-square-foot room where the teens slept. It was configured with a kitchen, essentially functioning as an apartment for the team. Adam estimates he spent roughly $30,000 over eight weeks on food, travel and administrative costs and was content that the venture not only gave his son another avenue to compete and grow, but it also offered additional exposure to the D.R. players. Alberto Rodriguez (Blue Jays) and Starlyn Castillo (Phillies) were among the travel team's alumni who signed with major-league organizations.

Adam fully acknowledges that Barger has had advantages and resources that have set him up to succeed, but he points out that his son has doggedly put in the work to get stronger and become a better athlete and baseball player. His development continued when he played for the C. Leon King High School team in Tampa during his junior and senior years. By then, Barger had begun to attract MLB teams.

So Barger - speaks Spanish, may be Mormon (unconfirmed, but did extensive Central American missionary work), had rich tech parents, was homeschooled, his dad hired a former Phillies Dominican minor leaguer to train Addison, Barger later went to a Dominican Prospect showcase for 2 weeks in the DR as a 5 foot nothing skinny kid because he didn't have a HS team to play on, the following year his dad imported 15 Dominican teens to form a travel ball team in Florida for Addison for 8 weeks for 30k and lived in his garage, Addison seemed to play actual HS ball for his junior & senior year before being drafted by the Jays out of HS in the 6th round.

Apparently two international signees were among the 15 kids living in Addison's garage at one point, including Toronto signee Alberto Rodriguez, who IIRC, was used as a trade chip.

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#460179) #
I don't know what the word is, but I'll go with creepy regarding that Barger backstory, pooks.
pooks137 - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#460180) #
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig009alb#

I believe this is the former Jays farmhand Alberto Rodriguez referenced in the article that lived in Barger's garage.

Rodriguez was traded to the Mariners at the 2020 deadline for Taijuan Walker.

He's currently 24 and out of affiliated baseball, playing in the Mexican League it appears.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#460181) #
Anyway i wanted to give credit to the mamager for already dropping Santander down behind every other established mlber in the lineup so early on.

How comfortable you think the likes of clement/barger/lukes should be in their job security i guess we'll disagree on, but it's besides the point really.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#460185) #
Speaking of Lukes' D (MiLB thread), it was surprising to see him stay in the game after his walk in the bottom of the 8th last night. Using Straw as a pinch-runner up 3-0 and having him attempt a steal should be an easy decision.
Gerry - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#460187) #
Just listening to some of At The Letters. They talk about how Daulton Varsho's arm is really weak. It seems to be related to his off season surgery. I hadn't noticed but I will be watching now.
soupman - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#460191) #
Varsho has always had a weaker arm than I’d assume given his background behind the plate. Statscast has him consistently at 40th percentile in arm strength prior to this. I don’t think it’s a new issue or something that should be too concerning.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#460192) #
ha that inning was really adding up to be a superfrustrating one.

but lukes comes through!

signs of slumpbusting from Santander too.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#460193) #
Arraez is a Rod Crew clone at the plate. Right down to the stance. Super cool.
lexomatic - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#460194) #
Interesting that on Baseball Savant, Clement is 1 with 5 runs, Arrenado 2nd with 4, and Barger one of a few with 3 minimum 100 innings at 3b.

Full team below
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/fielding-run-value?year=2025&team=141&min=0.1&pos=
Nigel - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#460195) #
Honestly not surprised by that data on Clement. Small sample sizes are dangerous with defense data but It matches the eye test. Combined with last year’s data and it says that he’s a very very good to elite defender.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#460196) #
generous inning by the padres.

would be a good time for one big hit to put this baby to bed.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#460197) #
I almost dread when the Jays have 1st and 2nd with 0 out because I know a bunt is coming. The obsession with the bunt needs to go away, especially when you’re telling one of your better hitters so far this season to do it (who also hit a HR 2 innings earlier).
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#460198) #
yep.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#460199) #
I’m fine with bunting in front of Bichette up 2-0, but not with two strikes.

It was a much different spot than the other night when they were down a run and bunted in front of Straw or Clase.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#460200) #
Machado is a terrorist.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#460201) #
ok Santantder time to break this slump for real.

this guy throws 86!
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#460202) #
eh...make that pinch hitter Jonatan Clase!

santander must have an owie.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#460203) #
classay!
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#460204) #
a DL stint for Santander wouldn't be the worst thing tbh.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#460205) #
And Springer was shaking his hand after coming up empty, so you might see Roden faster than expected.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#460206) #
Hazel Mae says Santander has a sore shoulder and hip. Maybe they should IL him for a while and let him get healthy. Might need to call up Roden soon to get another quality bat in the lineup.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#460207) #
Roden and Schneider both 2/4 tonight so far.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#460208) #
how exactly were the padres at .600 coming into this series?
Magpie - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#460209) #
I've been wondering that very thing.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#460210) #
got our ugly run differential all the way to a not too painful -11 now!
Glevin - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#460211) #
So nice to have an easy win for once. They should let Santander rest on IL for 10 days. Call up Roden and make sure Santander isn't playing hurt all year.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, May 21 2025 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#460212) #
Agreed on putting Santander on the IL. He's been awful this season, and if that's even partly due to injury, then better to get him healthy rather than hurting the team on the field.
hypobole - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#460215) #
Thanks for the Barger backstory, pooks. Always wondered why he went on the restricted list back in Bluefield. Assume that was his missionary work, which is a lot better than my rehab guess at the time. Also, unless I'm missing someone, Barger is the closest thing to a Dominican success story for this current regime.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#460217) #
The Blue Jays have a habit of letting players play hurt. I've complained about it a fair bit in recent years. George with his hand earlier in the year (which seems to still he bothering him) and Santander (shoulder, hip)... I know the depth isn't great but clearly half a Santander is not better than the alternative.

Lots of teams lean heavily on their depth players (bench, AAA) like the Dodgers. Good teams still find ways to win.
scottt - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#460219) #
The Padres were already thinking about the next series.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#460220) #
"I know the depth isn't great"

I actually think the depth on the position-player side has been pretty strong. Apart from Straw, there aren't many veterans, but Lukes/Straw/Schneider/Loperfido/Clase is pretty strong depth on the outfield side of things, and Wagner/Barger/Jimenez/Stefanic/Martinez is respectable on the infield side.

What has happened is that poor performance (Roden) and injury (Gimenez) have pushed the best of the depth pieces (Lukes, Barger) into regular playing time, and the rest of the depth looks a little thinner as a result.

It's funny to compare to the Dodgers, since the Jays reserves (counting Clement and Varsho as starters) have significantly out-produced the Dodgers to this point: 2.7 WAR to 1.0.
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#460221) #
"Good teams still find ways to win."

That's the definition of "good teams," yes. Bad teams find ways to lose.

The issue I have with people complaining that players play hurt is they only ever bring this up when said player is struggling. You never hear them complain that a player is playing hurt when they are not underperforming so in my mind, what difference does it make if you don't ever really know if a player is playing hurt or not? If you were told that Chris Bassitt has been playing hurt for the past 2 years with a chronic back issue does it mean that the Blue Jays are always making the poor decision to run him out? I don't think so. If Santander is now dealing with a season long hip issue but still hits 30HR are we going to complain that the Blue Jays didn't sit him for 10 games hoping he miraculously heals to 100%?

I just turned 40 and what used to heal in a week or two now takes months to heal. Oblique strain, sore arm, coccyx from sitting, etc. To me the idea that sitting someone will magically heal them to 100% so they can return to perfect form (after sitting out of action and speed of the game) is a fallacy. Success with soreness and injury should be about management not avoidance. I would bet that Aaron Judge has been playing sore or injured for most of the year every year because that's just what happens. Sitting him for a few weeks isn't going to help the team unless there's a certainty that his issue will be fixed when he returns.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#460222) #
yeah i also think the depth is a strength. guys like Straw and Heineman might be unlikely surprises but there's a bunch of other guys who've done nothing but who we should still expect to be real contributors - Roden and Wagner and Jimenez in particular.

What might get uncomfortable is when we start to consider not only that Santander and Gimenez don't deserve to be in the lineup based on this year's play, but that even fully functioning back to normal Santander and Gimenez might not actually deserve fulltime spots in the lineup.

A huge development this year seems like it might be Barger's defense (both at 3B and in the OF). He was outright terrible in the field last year but suddenly both the eye test and the stats think he's been not just good but very good in the field this year, at both positions. His bat always projected as averagish to slightly above this year, but if that comes with plus defense at 3B that makes him a fulltime player on this team....which then frees up Clement to be in a battle for playing time at 2B with Gimenez....and I'm not so sure who wins that battle in a fair fight tbh. Not to mention that Wagner and Jimenez might start pushing themselves into that fight too.

And then even if Santander gets back to his normal 115-120wrc+ bat....no guarantee that makes him a substantially better option than a number of other corner OF options on the roster.
bpoz - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#460223) #
I agree with dalimon5 that managing the playing time is important. So Springer and Santander have to sit a bit and also DH a bit to counter their aging.
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#460224) #
Depth isn't the problem on this team - its the lack of significantly above average players that is the problem.

Assuming that Santander's offence hasn't fallen off a cliff from what he has done the past couple of years, there's definitely still a full time role for him. This team isn't awash in 115 wRC+ hitters. Gimenez's role isn't quite as clear cut.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#460225) #
I'm not a big Gimenez fan, but I think he's being undervalued here, at least based on his 2025 performance thus far. He's significantly underperforming his expected numbers (.262 wOBA vs .320 xwOBA) and has a .220 BABIP. I think he's probably closer to a league average bat if his 2025 numbers normalize, and I'm not sure I'd say the same about Clement. I think Clement is closer to IKF than someone you'd want playing everyday. Great bench option, though.

Santander is definitely a concern. He has one skill, and literally nothing else, so if his injury is potentially hurting the one value he brings, then it's pointless to keep trotting him out there. Put him on the IL and wait until he's healthy.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#460226) #
"This team isn't awash in 115 wRC+ hitters."

True, but is awash with hitters who project not far below that, and mostly younger players with higher upside than the projections would feel safe forecasting....and most with much more defensive value too.

Current fangraphs combined wRC+ projections (with current wRC+ in brackets):

* Guerrero 145 (136)
* Bichette 117 (115)
* Santander 116 (68)
* Kirk 113 (93)
* Lukes 113 (134)
* Wagner 111 (52)
* Stefanic 111 (39)
* Springer 110 (139)
* Jimenez 110 (n/a)
* Roden 108 (52)
* Schneider 106 (53)
* Varsho 105 (128)
* Barger 105 (101)
* Gimenez 103 (67)
* Clement 96 (80)
Cracka - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#460227) #
The Blue Jays have a habit of letting players play hurt

I agree completely Marc. I understand that most players are highly competitive and willing to tough it out, but this isn't the NFL. It really couldn't be easier for this team to give an outfielder a short rest. The IL period is only 10 days, our AAA team is nearby, and the 40-man roster is fully stocked with options. There are still over 110 games to play, plus the postseason... just no need to play hurt right now.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#460228) #
"I'm not a big Gimenez fan, but I think he's being undervalued here"

I don't mean to undervalue him.

But Clement has been a ~95wrc+ hitter as a Jay and projects to stay around that level, and his defense seems to be pretty excellent.

If he stays at that kind of level i'm just not sure that Gimenez playing fulltime ahead of him is a gimme.
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#460229) #
As I pointed out the other day, the projections for Kirk, Varsho and Gimenez are all heavily influenced by one (to date) significant outlier season (all three years ago).
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#460230) #
the outlier season for Varsho seems to be 2023, not 2022.
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#460231) #
To me the issue with Gimenez is pretty simple - if he's the 88 wRC+ hitter he's been in the last 2 plus seasons then its an open question whether he's an everyday piece for this team (whether its Clement, Jimenez, Barger, etc. taking away playing time). If he's close to a league average hitter or better then no question what his role is.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#460232) #
was expecting a loss today with the padres trying to avoid a sweep with Francis on the hill, so this would be a pleasant surprise if they could finish it off.

Francis was ok enough today but took 77 pitches to get through 4 - even as a guy who likes leaving SPs in as long as possible, I'll have to give another shoutout to the manager today for this aggressive pull of Francis with the top of the order coming up again this inning, with a fully rested bullpen and a shaky SP who managed to get through 4 unscathed.

That doesn't mean that the bullpen won't blow this of course!

but i approve of this move.
Eephus - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#460233) #
It still feels like Yariel generally hasn’t a clue where his pitches are going, but when they’re around the zone he can be pretty darn filthy. Very impressive.
92-93 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#460234) #
Pulling Francis was a pretty easy decision. He had been getting hit hard all game and was lucky to have only given up the two runs. It's a heck of a lot easier to manage when your offense shows up for a game or two to keep the bullpen fresh.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#460235) #
I believe Heineman is currently tied for 5th in MLB in wRC+ (40 PA minimum) at 184. The player he's tied with? Ohtani.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#460236) #
Heineman is running a .486 babip and his xwOBA coming into today was only .270. That said, I hope he's really enjoying his current success, and even though I don't expect him to continue to hit like Tony Gwynn, he's a great backup catcher.

Lukes looks terrific right now - average-ish power, great contact skills, good contact quality, strong plate discipline and solid defence. He is slightly underperforming his expected stats, so he hasn't been lucky thus far. Surely at some point he has to go through a slump but right now he's playing at an all-star level.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#460237) #
Heineman has thrown out 7 of 12 would-be base stealers.
92-93 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#460238) #
Excellent Barger AB vs. this Kikuchi clone. Barger has just missed on a few HRs swings these last few games.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#460239) #
jerjapan deserves credit for touting Lukes for the last couple of years (when most of us were focused on other prospects). Lukes finally got a sustained shot and he's making the most of it.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#460240) #
It's really nice to see both Lukes and Heineman succeeding - two guys who continually had numbers (and eye test tbh) that made me wonder why they hadn't been able to earn more playing time in their careers.

The great thing about Heineman is that all this offense is entirely a bonus - he rates so well defensively that before this year, even with a career 65wrc+ he still earned 1.4war in only 299pa - i.e. a 3win type player over a full year, even with that horrible 65wrc+. I'm sure that's closer to the offense we'll end up getting from him going forward but with his defense that still makes a very good backup C for me.


and while I could sort of understand how a guy with that bad offense could slip through the cracks, even with great defense, it was harder to understand why Lukes never got more of a chance bfore this year. Very good career AAA numbers both top line and underlying had his projections as a solidly above average hitter, and while he might not be great defensively he still showed enough out there to get CF time, which was always a good sign.


these types mostly end up failing even when they finally get their deserved chances, so it's nice to see this happen for them, just like it happened for Clement last year.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#460241) #
bunting with RISP again.

this time even with nobody on 1st so there wasn't even a double play risk.

i just don't get it.
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#460242) #
Barger and Rodriguez continuing to shine in their current roles would be pretty major developments for this roster. It would more narrowly focus the needs to SP.
92-93 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#460243) #
Straw is a terrible hitter, so I have no problem with trying to move the runner to 3rd to pick up another precious run.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#460244) #
Leadoff walks. Inexcusable.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#460245) #
the chances of a straw bunt helping add an additional run there are miniscule.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#460246) #
I think it's a defensible decision to have Straw bunt there. But bunting to move a fast runner to third with two outs? There's absolutely no defence for that decision.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#460247) #
Clase was already in scoring position and could easily score on most fluke singles. Giving up an out to try to move him to 3B for your backup catcher (granted who is BABIP'ing to great results but he's not a good hitter) was unnecessary. I don't get get this team's obsession with bunting.

Hopefully the Jays can still win this one. Hoffman isn't automatic anymore, sadly.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#460248) #
read some stat somwhere yesterday that our record is fantastic in games that we have the chance to get TO .500, but horrific when we have the chance to get ABOVE .500.

let's fix that please.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#460249) #
Pitching to Arraez with two out and runner on third in the 10th inning of a tie ballgame = arguably bad idea
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#460250) #
Clase is gonna lay a bunt down to start this inning isn't he.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#460251) #
they didn't bunt!!!!!
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#460252) #
varsho ties it up AND makes sure the jays can't bunt now.

perfect.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#460253) #
feel like at least one of the runner should have been able to advance on that clement fly.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#460254) #
phew. Lukes makes sure this great series wasn't spoiled.

Team showed some great fight in this one.
Glevin - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#460255) #
Great win and team is above. 500!!
John Northey - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#460256) #
Couldn't believe they pitched to Clement, he and Lukes are good contact guys - not the guys the other team should want to be facing with the winning run at 3B with under 2 out.

Barger sure had a game and a half - 3 hits, 2 walks. But 7 relievers used - ouch.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#460257) #
Barger and Lukes wRC+ up to 118 and 135, respectively. The lineup is getting stronger as the kids gain experience and maturity.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#460258) #
"Barger and Rodriguez continuing to shine in their current roles would be pretty major developments for this roster. It would more narrowly focus the needs to SP."


Barger not only hitting well but also looking like a better than competent third baseman defensively is massive. Third base went from a gigantic organizational hole with no realistic answer (and trade options scarce) to possibly a strength overnight. Obviously still a short sample size but underlying offensive numbers are strong and he passes the eye test defensively so far (arm is clearly plus). Hopefully he keeps it up.

If Roden has figured things out in AAA and can come up with an equally impressive offensive turnaround, then you can start to see the makings of a pretty solid offense.
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#460259) #
Lots of ways that that game could have gone sideways so you have to give credit to the team for how it kept at it. Varsho, Barger and Lukes being hot at the same time makes this a fairly dangerous line-up against RHP.

The Proven Closer is struggling right now, it will be interesting to see how they handle that. Rodriquez and Little are getting a ton of k's. They would be my extra innings choices to the limited extent you get to make that choice.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#460260) #
Have there been any updates about Scherzer’s throwing progression? Or is he turning into a $16m second pitching coach?
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#460261) #
I would love for this team to add another closer and clean up hitter. Willing to trade most anyone other than Tiedeman and Nimalla for it.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#460262) #

Max Scherzer and Nick Sandlin both threw bullpens today.

Scherzer said he was happy with the intensity of side, plans to throw again Thursday, Saturday and Monday ahead of live BPs.

Sandlin likely gets a couple more sides before facing hitters, said John Schneider.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) May 20, 2025

Max Scherzer threw another bullpen today. Still working towards facing live hitters again #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/gd3uP2akQq

— Mitch Bannon (@MitchBannon) May 22, 2025
92-93 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#460263) #
Hoffman needs to be removed temporarily from the Closer role, for his own sake. Just mix and match and win ballgames.

The next 6 games are vs. RHP until they face Springs on OAK, so Lukes and Barger will have lots of ABs to continue to show what they can do.
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#460264) #
I'd pull Hoffman from that role too but the Jays treat the Proven Closer role as sacrosanct so I don't see them doing that.

Tomorrow night will be interesting. They are going to have to get something close to a tandem start (6-7 innings) from Lauer/Urena or else call up another arm from Buffalo.
Kelekin - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#460265) #
Exciting game, and exciting win. Though it's time for my regular production complaint - it is absolutely ridiculous that on Varsho's triple, we literally saw almost none of it.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#460266) #
Updated Pitching Stats:


* SP Bassitt 10gms, 5.7ip/gm, 72era-, 72fip-, 75xfip-, 4.6war/32gm
* SP Gausman 10gms, 5.8ip/gm, 103era-, 82fip-, 87xfip-, 2.9war/32gm
* SP Berrios 10gms, 5.8ip/gm, 107era-, 116fip-, 106xfip-, 1.6war/32gm
* SP Francis 10gms, 5.0ip/gm, 141era-, 161fip-, 114xfip-, -1.6war/32gm
* SP Scherzer 1gms, 3.0ip/gm, 153era-, 276fip-, 143xfip-, -3.2war/32gm

* SP Lauer 4gms, 3.0ip/gm, 57era-, 68fip-, 90xfip-, 2.0war/32gm
* SP Schultz 2gms, 3.3ip/gm, 103era-, 63fip-, 47xfip-, 0.8war/32gm
* SP Lucas 4gms, 4.3ip/gm, 189era-, 155fip-, 106xfip-, -2.4war/32gm


Not sure we could really expect much more from that front-4 collectively. Though maybe a bit, as i see Bassitt as overachieving and the other three as slightly underachievering.

Hopefully Scherzer comes in and gives solid mid-rotation stuff. In the meantime, Lauer has been useful enough that he might challenge Francis for that 5th spot if health ever permits that competition.



* CL Hoffman 22gms, 1.0ip/gm, 154era-, 92fip-, 44xfip-, -0.6war/65gm
* SU Garcia 21gms, 1.0ip/gm, 80era-, 72fip-, 83xfip-, 0.8war/65gm
* LH Little 25gms, 1.0ip/gm, 38era-, 49fip-, 57xfip-, 1.7war/65gm
* LH Fluharty 20gms, 1.0ip/gm, 57era-, 70fip-, 99xfip-, 1.3war/65gm
* RH Rodriguez 21gms, 1.2ip/gm, 81era-, 110fip-, 100xfip-, 0.5war/65gm
* RH Sandlin 10gms, 0.8ip/gm, 57era-, 68fip-, 96xfip-, 0.4war/65gm
* RH Green 22gms, 1.0ip/gm, 86era-, 159fip-, 104xfip-, -0.4war/65gm
* RH Fisher 5gms, 1.1ip/gm, 0era-, 18fip-, 39xfip-, 3.0war/65gm

* LH Walker 3gms, 1.7ip/gm, 184era-, 39fip-, 76xfip-, 0.0war/65gm
* RH Urena 4gms, 2.3ip/gm, 123era-, 188fip-, 157xfip-, -0.4war/65gm
* RH Tate 5gms, 1.1ip/gm, 129era-, 169fip-, 156xfip-, -0.6war/65gm
* RH Lawrence 1gms, 2.7ip/gm, 258era-, 84fip-, 125xfip-, -1.2war/65gm
* RH Barnes 6gms, 1.3ip/gm, 229era-, 112fip-, 117xfip-, -1.7war/65gm
* LH Lovelady 2gms, 0.8ip/gm, 551era-, 211fip-, 277xfip-, -6.1war/65gm



Hoffman starting to be a worry. The rest of the bullpen is really lining up nicely though. I find Fisher to be legit interesting too.






and hey might as well post all the updated hitting stats, just because Barger's big game makes the lineup look sexier:



Plausible Best Lineup, this year's stats only:

* 1. LF Lukes 102pa, .268babip, .374obp, 135wrc+, 3.2war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 217pa, .317babip, .382obp, 131wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
* 3. DH Springer 174pa, .344babip, .372obp, 138wrc+, 3.4war/650pa
* 4. CF Varsho 71pa, .189babip, .239obp, 124wrc+, 6.4war/650pa
* 5. SS Bichette 227pa, .339babip, .335obp, 114wrc+, 2.6war/650pa
* 6. 3B Barger 94pa, .323babip, .330obp, 118wrc+, 6.2war/650pa
* 7. RF Straw 85pa, .338babip, .317obp, 99wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
* 8. C Kirk 151pa, .301babip, .318obp, 96wrc+, 4.7war/650pa
* 9. 2B Clement 148pa, .287babip, .290obp, 75wrc+, 2.6war/650pa

* B. UT Santander 184pa, .223babip, .266obp, 68wrc+, -2.1war/650pa
* B. OF Clase 32pa, .316babip, .290obp, 68wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* B. IF Gimenez 143pa, .220babip, .273obp, 67wrc+, 1.4war/650pa
* B. C Heineman 51pa, .474babip, .412obp, 172wrc+, 12.7war/650pa

* X. UT Schneider 21pa, .143babip, .333obp, 53wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Roden 84pa, .214babip, .262obp, 52wrc+, 0.8war/650pa
* X. IF Wagner 68pa, .250babip, .284obp, 52wrc+, -2.9war/650pa
* X. IF Stefanic 8pa, .286babip, .250obp, 39wrc+, 0.0war/650pa


And hey, Clase's big day put him right in the picture, too. nice.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#460267) #
I am not worried about Hoffman. There are four pitchers in the majors with a sub-2 xFIP, minimum 10 IP, and he's one of them. He's also one of eight with a SIERA south of 2. Nor does he historically have a tendency to give up homers.

The weakness of this team is pretty clearly the starting rotation. Basically we have three average-ish veterans, the hope Francis finds his form from last year and a rotating cast of cast-offs in the fifth spot right now. We can hope that Scherzer and Manoah can come back and be good, but that doesn't seem very likely. And the only prospect who might have helped out, Bloss, is out with TJ.

The starting pitching ranks 25th in the majors by fWAR, 23rd by rWAR and 26th by ERA-. Unless Scherzer comes back and shoves, I really don't see substantial improvement in the offing. The bullpen is going to have to stay strong and the offence is going to have to start firing on all cylinders if this team is going anywhere.
Glevin - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#460268) #
I not worried about Hoffman but thought today was ideal time to have Little close. Three lefties. Sticking to one guys as your closer no matter what doesn't make much sense to me. I don't want Hoffman removed from the roll or anything, just more flexibility with who gets saves.
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#460269) #
Pitchers go through slumps just like hitters (and defenders for that matter). Why not acknowledge that your Proven Closer is in one and just give him a breather for a stretch? I'm not really worried about Hoffman in the big picture (his stuff still looks pretty good) but youneverknow. This isn't Mariano Rivera we're talking about here, two years ago Hoffman was close to out of baseball.
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#460270) #
"The starting pitching ranks 25th in the majors by fWAR, 23rd by rWAR and 26th by ERA-. Unless Scherzer comes back and shoves, I really don't see substantial improvement in the offing."

In 2023 the Blue Jays rotation was top 5 using most of those stats and that was with Manoah and his ERA of 5.00+, I don't like to use rankings because it makes something look worse than it is. If 10 other teams improve but your pitching remains the same you can say that they are worse even though nothing has changed...

What allowed them to be a top 5 rotation 2 years ago but bottom 3rd this year? In every year since they've had their main 4 starting pitchers all pitching below an ERA of 4.00 and one starter sucking.

2025 - around 24th in rankings with 4 starters hovering at or below era of 4.00
2024 - around 17th in rankings
2023 - around 5th in rankings

The improvement you're talking about is completely dependent on the performance of the rest of the league. I think what's more relevant is finding enough performance from the starting rotation, bullpen and offense to consistently get the team clear in run differential instead of hovering above and below the break even point.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#460271) #
Isn't it best not to have your "best" rp as the designated closer? Just a guy who is comfy in that role so that the best rp can be used in more specific high leverage situations?
Nigel - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#460272) #
Its pretty clear that the Jays don't agree with what I am about to say but to me your pen should be demarcated by "high leverage", "medium leverage" and "low leverage" guys. A one run lead in the ninth is a high leverage situation but a three run lead in the ninth is a medium leverage situation. No need for your "closer" in that second situation. Just as the highest leverage situation in a game might be a bases loaded situation in a tie game in the 7th inning. The Jays (and this isn't just Schneider) for the most part still think of their pen as the Proven Closer (9th inning guy with a lead of three runs or less), 8th inning/set up guy(s), 7th inning guy(s)s, situational lefties and mop up guy(s).
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#460273) #
How is Shapiro feeling tonight after learning MLSE (Rogers) has cut hundreds of jobs and fired his equivalent in Shanahan?
Marc Hulet - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#460274) #
Swanson pitching back-to-back games on rehab but he was only allowed to face three hitters each time, which is suboptimal. He also failed to retire all 3 hitters in both outings and was sitting just 91 mph during the second game, down from sitting 92 mph in the first game. He typically sits closer to 94 mph.

Turnbull was sitting 90 mph last night. He usually sits 92-93 mph. Ryan Burr was around 91-92. He usually sits 94 mph.

Nobody is looking good yet.
John Northey - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#460275) #
Hockey is very different from baseball. In hockey the playoffs are everything. A quality team should win as a best of 7 game hockey series is like a best of 15 game baseball one. The NHL counts on those playoff games for a very big chunk of their revenue, MLB teams don't (the entire MLB does, but that is shared revenue from TV, gate is a plus but not a make or break thing).

I'm certain I read somewhere that NHL/NBA/NFL has a far greater winning percentage for the stronger team than MLB does come playoff time.
pooks137 - Thursday, May 22 2025 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#460276) #
The great thing about Heineman is that all this offense is entirely a bonus - he rates so well defensively that before this year, even with a career 65wrc+ he still earned 1.4war in only 299pa - i.e. a 3win type player over a full year, even with that horrible 65wrc+. I'm sure that's closer to the offense we'll end up getting from him going forward but with his defense that still makes a very good backup C for me.

and while I could sort of understand how a guy with that bad offense could slip through the cracks, even with great defense

I recall being so confused why the Jays would bother to cut Brian Serven to pick Tyler Heineman off waivers in the dying days of Sept last year while playing out the string.

Then "wasting" a precious 40-man spot on him all winter for a replacement catcher that can continually be plucked off waivers.

It's hard to quantify WHY Heineman is such a cromulent backup other than his BABIP fueled 1st 2 months. But the FO certainly seemed to know what they were doing in this case.

John Northey - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#460277) #
Tyler Heineman is that oddity who plays better here than anywhere else. Why? Who knows. But the Jays were smart to hold him when they got the shot at him last fall. Not a free agent until after 2028 so a solid backup from now until then at a bargain price. If he falls off a cliff easy to release. Zero reason for a multi year deal here. An ideal backup. Similar with Lukes. Vets at a rookie price.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#460278) #
Heineman has basically the same WAR as Bichette and Vladdy this year (and in far fewer PA). That won’t last, but it shows the strong start to the season he’s had.
dalimon5 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#460279) #
John it's not about the results but more about Rogers bringing in Keith Pelley to run all the teams and the likelihood he may not want an extra layer of management between himself and the general managers. That would be Shapiro, Shanahan and Ujiri all on the hot seat if Pelley wanted to be more involved with the GMs while also cutting big salaries.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#460280) #
Ujiri is well respected in the basketball community so I think his job is safe. Shanahan is leaving because his contract is up and no one wants him back, and the job is going to remain empty for a while. I kind of doubt Shapiro will be back next year, barring a miraculous run by the Jays.

I actually think a president with experience in the sport is important to act as a buffer between management and the ownership. We've all seen owners who think they are experts meddle with their teams and it never turns out well.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#460281) #
I imagine the "no replacement" for shanahan is a temporary thing.

The structure of the toronto teams makes sense i think - the President who's a bit of an executive GM, the GM who concentrates only on GMing.

What might be interesting to see if Pelley looks at the Leafs (and the Jays soon enough) and sees organizational/front office 'bloat', and thinks a thinning of the ranks might lead to more effective decision making and accountability.

I think both the leafs and jays front offices may have fell victim to this, and it'll be interesting to see whether Pelley thinks it's a thing.

But I think the basic structure of a Prez and GM for each team is still going to be the way longterm.
pooks137 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#460282) #
I was poking around the Jays' BBRef page breakdowns by position and noticed that Bo Bichette has started all 49 games at SS so far in 2025 & has only been relieved of his defensive duties twice this year in blowouts for 4 innings (both times by Ernie Clement - once in an 11-2 loss against the Yankees Apr 27 & more recently in a 9-1 win against Seattle May 11th).

Given Bo just had two relatively lost seasons due to injury (he struggled offensively and was hurt at the end of 2023 as well IIRC), why isn't Bichette included in the load management regimen like other vets are like Vlad, Springer & Santander?

Do players have the final say? Does Bo not have to take days off or even DH half-days if he doesn't want to?

Are the Jays doing him a favour by letting him compile stats in a walk year?

Seems odd considering the Jays have/had perfectly cromulent short term replacements on the roster in Clement & Gimenez (and even Barger in a worst case scenario) for most of the spring.
dalimon5 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#460283) #
"What might be interesting to see if Pelley looks at the Leafs (and the Jays soon enough) and sees organizational/front office 'bloat', and thinks a thinning of the ranks might lead to more effective decision making and accountability.

I think both the leafs and jays front offices may have fell victim to this, and it'll be interesting to see whether Pelley thinks it's a thing."

Ugly I'm with you on this 100%. I would assume Shapiro would be loet go similar to Shanahan except Shapiro was Ed's hire whereas Shanahan was Leiweke's guy.
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