Pretty wild that DeGrom at 2.33 has the worst ERA of the 3 starters the Jays face to start the week.

No cheapies either. All 3 SP have double digit starts and decent FIP numbers to match.

A 35 year old Nathan Eovaldi is somehow both healthy and still dominant.

I've never heard of Tyler Mahle, but apparently he's another 30 y/o, 9 year MLB vet who is having a career year. Looks like he came up with the Reds.

Vlad with the half day off at DH.

Clement at 1B.

Stefanic gets the rare start at 2B against the RHP deGrom.

The broadcast mentioned that deGrom has only faced the Jays once lifetime in the regular season during the COVID year in Buffalo.

Only current Jays that faced him that day in the starting 9 was Vlad.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR202009110.shtml

The Mets beat the Jays 18-1 on Sept 11th, 2020 at Sahlen Field in deGrom's last regular season start against Toronto.

Jays starting nine:

Biggio - Grichuk - Travis Shaw - Vlad - Gurriel Jr - Jonathan Villar - Joe Panik - Jansen - Espinal

Chase Anderson started.

Derek Fisher & Johnathan Davis PH.

Ken Giles gave up a HR in the 8th.

Santiago Espinal pitched the ninth with 2 hits and an ER.

Santander is going to get over 500 PA and by January 2026 we will read stories about how he was playing hurt all season in 2025.

After the leadoff single by Kirk in the sixth, Santander worked the count to 3-1. The radio broadcast said the next pitch was clearly outside, but the home plate ump called it a strike. Santander then popped out, after which Barger doubled.

The umpiring issues are getting tiresome…

CG for Gausman? Or does Schneider pull him before Langford comes up again?

No strikeouts yet today for the batters. This is an unusually strong lineup for avoiding Ks.

surprised Varsho doesn't do that more tbh.

On the positive side of things, Kirk is sure playing well these days.

Jonah Birenbaum
@birenball
·
36m
Jacob deGrom has made 229 starts over the course of his 12-year MLB career.

Today's outing, against the Blue Jays, marked the first time that he failed to record a strikeout.

Not sure why Hoffman is warming up here.

Usually defensive excellence goes with speed and good baserunning. Not for the Jays. Just like last year, the Jays are among the best defensive teams in the majors, and one of the worst on the basepaths.

In a 2-1 game, I would prefer Gausman with 96 pitches here over Hoffman. Hopefully we see good Hoffman today.

Ugly win but I'll take it.

Yep. Take the positives where you can find them. Gausman. Hoffman. Varsho. Kirk.

After the leadoff single by Kirk in the sixth, Santander worked the count to 3-1. The radio broadcast said the next pitch was clearly outside, but the home plate ump called it a strike. Santander then popped out, after which Barger doubled.
Is that the AB where he weakly fouled off the 3-0 pitch? I was quite upset he wasn't given the red light there..

Just looking at GameDay and boy was the ump off. I checked 2 ABs and in each an obvious ball was called a strike. One vs Santander, and one vs Jung (hitting coach ejected shortly after). The umpire summary should be interesting.

The one versus Jung was clearly a bad call (good for us), but not a horrifically bad call as these things go. But yeah, the case for ABS grows ever stronger.

I did some math to come up with some personal conclusions.

A .560 winning % in 50 games is 28-22/+6, 110 games is 62-48/+14 and 162 games is 91-71/+20. The final 91-71 record is very good for getting a playoff spot. The +6,14 & 20 differential goes from easy to hard to get up or down to the .560 mark. Minnesota has had a 13 game winning streak this year which puts them in a great playoff position currently.

With 53 games played so far this year the Jays are quite ok. So no emotional rollercoaster for me at this time. Last year our record at about 2 weeks before the AS game convinced me that we are probably out and in early July it was clear that we were going to be sellers.

Baltimore has to pull off a miracle in the next month to avoid being sellers. TB could get to 5-10 games below 500 by mid July which I think makes them sellers at the trade deadline because they sold last year.

Surprisingly not a bad ump scorecard.

It’s curious that a home plate ump who otherwise was having a good night suddenly blew an important call against a Blue Jays hitter in the sixth inning. That call could have cost the team dearly in a 2-1 game. Fortunately it didn’t end up hurting them.

You're right, the umpires should plan to blow their calls earlier in the game.

Or against the non-Canadian team!

Kirk moves ahead of Springer tonight in the order. Perhaps the Jays will notice soon that, since being called up, Barger has been better than George, and significantly so since his first hit which took a few games to collect.

The bullpen is very fresh tonight, so you can expect another quick hook for Francis.

A couple different versions of "who's hot or not"...


Past 30 days:

* 1. LF Lukes 70pa 141wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 119pa 140wrc+
* 3. C Kirk 83pa 141wrc+
* 4. 3B Barger 87pa 127wrc+
* 5. SS Bichette 122pa 105wrc+
* 6. CF Varsho 84pa 122wrc+
* 7. RF Springer 99pa 93wrc+
* 8. DH Santander 87pa 91wrc+
* 9. 2B Clement 97pa 90wrc+

* B. OF Clase 38pa 92wrc+
* B. OF Straw 48pa 71wrc+
* B. IF Gimenez 34pa 34wrc+
* B. C Heineman 24pa 71wrc+

* B. UT Wagner 6pa 45wrc+
* B. OF Roden 10pa -67wrc+
* B. IF Stefanic 13pa 65wrc+
* B. C Sanchez 3pa 91wrc+




Past 14 days:

* 1. RF Clase 22pa 167wrc+
* 2. 1B Guerrero 56pa 154wrc+
* 3. CF Varsho 48pa 140wrc+
* 4. C Kirk 38pa 130wrc+
* 5. LF Lukes 37pa 108wrc+
* 6. SS Bichette 58pa 91wrc+
* 7. 3B Barger 50pa 105wrc+
* 8. 2B Clement 49pa 71wrc+
* 9. DH Santander 37pa 47wrc+

* B. UT Springer 42pa 10wrc+
* B. OF Straw 19pa 71wrc+
* B. IF Stefanic 12pa 80wrc+
* B. C Heineman 10pa 209wrc+
* B. C Sanchez 3pa 91wrc+

The bullpen is very fresh tonight, so you can expect another quick hook for Francis.

Hopefully not too quick.

With Lauer going tomorrow and the coaching staff not trusting him, it's essentially a bullpen game afterwards.

Springer has a 104 wRC+ in his last 156 PA. The "under the hood" numbers all look significantly better, but keep in mind he was about a league average bat in 2023-24. Regardless, he's been a very nice surprise offensively this season even with the dip recently. If the Jays are selling at the deadline, then I'm curious if he'd have a market.

springer line drive double.

master manager pushing buttons like a pro.

Can anybody score a run?

Springer has been a negative-value player for 5-6 weeks now, so he'd have to start hitting again for somebody to entertain taking on part of his contract and/or giving up a prospect. He's off to a good start tonight.

Santander got two hittable pitches in his 6th inning PA with Kirk on first base. He missed them both (foul ball and easy fly out to RF).

The reasons for pulling Francis here are obvious, but it's still a tough move to make when he's your #4 and your #5 goes tomorrow.

In case you were wondering where that 2-2 pitch was when the broadcast gave you zero view of it, MLB.com had it nicking the strike zone.

Great pickoff.

How long can the Blue Jays keep Roden in the minors when the MLB team can’t score any runs? In 16 games in AAA, Roden is hitting .375/.467/.625, with 9 walks, 6 strikeouts, 3 SB and 0 CS.

Not sure if it has been mentioned but Alejandro Osuna is Roberto’s younger brother.

they can't even find playing time for their hottest hitter (Lukes) let alone make room for Roden.

How many more wins would the Blue Jays have this season if Santander had a 110 wRC+ (his career average) instead of a 69 wRC+? Probably at least one or two.

The offense has scored 4 runs in 5 games on this road trip. The lineup just isn’t good enough to do better than just tread water.

Vladdy with an .800 OPS a third of the way through the season. Not horrible, but also not what you award one of the very biggest contracts in baseball history for. Especially when the hitter is a first baseman.

How long can the Blue Jays keep Roden in the minors when the MLB team can’t score any runs?

The broadcast mentioned that the Athletics have 3 LHPs of their 4 SP scheduled for the rest of the week back in Toronto, so presumably not until at least next week.

Strange the Jays are playing a night came tomorrow in the Central time zone then immediately flying north to face Oakland at home Thurs.

It reminds of the broadcast mentioning in Anaheim that host teams often schedule an afternoon getaway day game as a professional courtesy even if it hurts the gate. But that the Angels have a reputation for never agreeing to afternoon getaway games essentially because of greed.

Tomorrow's night game then a late flight home to Toronto makes one wonder if Texas' ownership is in the same boat.

I don't believe it's a coincidence that Springer's production fell off almost immediately after his hand/wrist injury (hamate?) When he visibly wrung out his hand at the plate and then missed a day or two.

Keegan shared a quote today from Santander that his shoulder/hip injuries were keeping him from taking big hacks.

Knowing they're on the hotseat again, management (Atkins, Schneider) are keeping injured guys in the lineup playing 75% rather than looking at the big picture and allowing them to hit the IL and actually get healthy. Because those two (Schneider and Atkins) probably have until the trade deadline to get this team turned around.

Jays didn't let guys get healthy last year or let them play hurt (Swanson, Romano, Bichette, Varsho...)

I really don't get it. In a playoff series or in September down the stretch, sure guys should tough it out but in May, let guys just go in the IL. Jays have depth in OF. Just call up Roden and they'll be fine. Absolutely no need for players to be toughing it out at this point. It hurts the team short and long term. Tye roster construction now is so bad anyways. 6 OF and Barger who can also play OF and 5 IF. Even with 7 OF, none are good fits to play VS LHP so there isn't really any platoon to be had, just a ton of cycling through guys. Clase has played a lot better but should be playing every day in Buffalo and Lukes should be playing almost every day in Toronto right now. Jays have too many OF in AAA and with Kasevich coming back soon are about to have too many IF too. Just an extremely imbalanced roster.

The one series that Santander missed, the Jays scored 21 runs in a sweep of SEA.

I don't think anyone is completely giving up on him (though dreams of his career year last year being an actual breakoit instead of an outlier are likely gone now), but yeah it seems like the injuries would be the perfect opportunity to both a) help him get right and b) improve the team in the short run by letting guys play who are actually hitting right now like Lukes and maybe Roden.

"The roster construction now is so bad anyways"

Unfortunately that's kind of all due to Santander. A DH who can't hit can really clog up a roster fast.

CF Varsho l
RF Roden l
LF Lukes l
3B Barger l
SS Bichette r
2B Gimenez l
1B Guerrero r
DH Springer r
C Kirk r

UT Wagner l - Schneider r - Nunez r
OF Straw r - Clase l - Loperfido l
IF Clement r - Jimenez r - Stefanic r
C Heineman s - Bethancourt r - Sanchez r

Before last night's rest, Lukes had started 15 of 17 games. It's entirely possible his strong stats are a direct result of his proper usage.

Not really just about lukes i guess. More that they designed a lineup with 3 guys who have been completely unproductive - Santander Clement Stefanic - while leaving a couple guys who have been hitting a bit on the bench - Lukes, Clase - and have some hot bats in buffalo too.

When we're struggling for offense i find it a bit frustrating.

And if any of those hot bats could play 2B, that would be relevant.

It would be a huge mistake to not give Santander playing time.

It’s kind of funny (in a gallows humour way) that the front office started out with a bad DH multi-year free agent signing (Morales) and may be ending with another one (Santander).

Gimenez could begin rehab games today so could be back within the week. As of now, I'd send down Clase even though he's been decent recently. Would rather him get everyday ABs in AAA and he has things he clearly needs to work on and Jays don't need 7 OFs. Then, when Jimenez ready, he can come up for Stefanic. Roden should be up for first time OF goes on IL or if Lukes starts to struggle. Straw is fine as 5th OF. Legitimate CF, pinch runner, doesn't need to play regularly but with Varsho, Santander, Springer, and Lukes not much playing time for anyone else.

My biggest issue with the last two lineups is that both Clement AND Stefanic were starting with Vlad & Bo taking turns at DH. This has made the bench mostly redundant and has kept two backup-caliber infielders permanently in the lineup. I guess it's a moot point as Giminez is nearly ready to return (scheduled to make a rehab start tonight for Dunedin) and we still have 5-6 outfielders that will be/should be playing nearly every day.

So the complaint is essentially that no off days are allowed while Gimenez is on the IL. I don't really disagree, but it's a stretch.

I second Glevin's assessment. If Roden comes back and does well, we would definitely get into the "too many outfielders" category.

Right now, Springer, Varsho and Lukes all are earning a place as starters, and Santander, due to his contract, needs a starting job as well (if healthy). This is fine, as Santander and Springer can split time at DH (Springer's defensive metrics have crashed this year as he's slowed down). But add Roden (or Clase, or Schneider, or Loperfido if any of those guys go on a tear) and the outfield is overpacked. It would make sense to try and get rid of Springer's contract at the deadline now that he's rebounded at the plate, but there may be no takers, even if the Jays eat a substantial part of his salary.

Soto's OPS is .756.

Yesterday was Bo's first start at DH since Sept 2023. Monday was Vlad's fourth start at DH this season. Both are adamant about being in the lineup every day, and neither embraces the DH role. Lindor & Alonso - for example - are also like this; neither of those guys has DH'ed this year. Perhaps it's nitpicking, but they aren't scoring runs, and they couldn't pinch-hit for their weakest hitters last night, despite having a full bench. Maybe Myles Straw should take some more reps at 2B to further complicate things...

On a completely different note, on the broadcast last night it was mentioned that Spencer Turnbull needs to be recalled shortly as his contract stipulates that he can only spend 35 days in the minors. He started for Dunedin last night and was up to 73 pitches; looks like his next start will be for Buffalo and then after that will become our 5th starter, currently slated to debut on Sunday, June 8th in Minnesota.

"So the complaint is essentially that no off days are allowed while Gimenez is on the IL"

Eh with Jimenez and Gimenez on the way back and the team in a super cold stretch probably not the best time to give the SS a DH day.

And Santander is more in need of an off day anyways.

While there's "too many OF" that could change pretty quick if both the G/J-imenezes come back effective.

Not to mention if Springer and Lukes fall off.

"It would make sense to try and get rid of Springer's contract at the deadline now that he's rebounded at the plate, but there may be no takers, even if the Jays eat a substantial part of his salary."


Agreed. Springer to his credit has rebounded very well, with a 133 wRC+ on the season and .385 xwOBA. If his numbers resemble something like that by July, then I would imagine a team would be interested. Enough to take on some/most of the $22.5M he's owed next season, plus whatever is left of his 2025 money? That's the main question. If they are trading Springer in July, then it's because they are selling, in which case eating up some money wouldn't be the worst thing to do depending on the return. Although they don't have anyone other than Roden who looks like a potential OF piece for 2026, partly because they want to hoard depth instead of promote Pinango and Schreck to see if they might have something there, so keeping Springer for 2026 might also be an option.

The plan for 2025 should have been to sell assets like a revitalized Springer (if he is, in fact, revitalized - he's been bad recently). But that isn't the plan that the FO followed. They are pretty close to "all in" on trying to compete in the short term. Given that, it makes zero sense to be trading Springer in July if he's still hitting at something like a 133 wRC+. The team is starving for offence already. You can't change horses on the "we're competing now" to "we're selling assets" in July. Now, Bo and Bassitt at the trade deadline might be a different situation - although, even then, I'd be extremely surprised if they did a "white flag" trade.

Don't see a lot of upside in moving Springer. Not like we need to save the money for anything.

And in terms of trade return we could probaby actually get something for him next year of he's hitting to projections.

If the Jays are sellers at the deadline (only way trading Springer would make sense), then the FO is likely going to change by the end of the season. A new FO might have the same mandate as Atkins did prior to 2025 (try to win right away), but they could still rationalize trading Springer in that scenario (he will be 36 next season so it's possible it's a sell high and saved money could be used elsewhere). Obviously it would depend on the return. A 130 wRC+ Springer is not someone you dump for nothing. The Jays would have to get something back. Whether that's even possible is the question.

Again, they can still keep Springer for 2026 as it doesn't appear anyone is kicking the door down for playing time (Roden can play LF) but a dead cat bounce is not something I'd bank on being sustainable. Selling high should be something they strongly consider. If teams aren't offering anything good then you hold and hope for the best in 2026.

Springer is having an OK offensive season, but I doubt he has much trade value. He had a hot start to the season, but his wRC+ in May is 108. He’s almost 36 and has had a lot of injuries in recent years. He has little defensive value. He wasn’t good in 2023 or 2024. At this point, I don’t see any team being willing to take on more than a small fraction of his contract in a trade — unless he heats up again and stays healthy between now and the trade deadline.

Can't imagine Springer being traded right now. More likely to see a few kids traded for whatever the Jays can get to clear out the OF logjam.

So where to improve?

• Over 1 fWAR: Vlad/Kirk/Heinemann so C/1B are damn fine.
• 0.5-0.9: Clement, Barger, Varsho, Bo, Straw, Springer (2B/3B/CF/SS/2 OF) - all solid.
• -0.7: Santander - ugh, but he is, like most power hitters, very streaky. Hopefully a good one comes soon.
• -------pitching--------
• Over 1 fWAR: Bassitt, Gausman (no shock there)
• 0.3: Berrios (fWAR never likes him)
• Sub 0: everyone else. Francis showing hope with his last game, but right now the 4/5 slots suck.
• Pen: WAR isn't too useful, but Little is damn fine. Garcia, Fisher, Fluharty, Sandlin (come back soon), Lauer, Yariel, and Hoffman are all doing their jobs. Chad Green showing why the Jays didn't do the 3 year option on him right now (-0.5 fWAR, ouch)

Clearly starting pitching is the weakness, but with Manoah and Scherzer coming back hopefully by mid-summer it might solve itself. Still, a solid guy who can shift to the pen if needed wouldn't be a bad idea to get.

Bo isn't in the lineup today at all, so it's the 3rd straight game with Clement & Stefanic both in. Santander moves up to 2nd(???) and Varsho is leading off with a .228 OBP. Not exactly a Moneyball lineup...

Eh with Bichette hurt it was probably a good time to DH him tbh

I have to assume, with Bo DHing yesterday and off entirely today, that he's banged up somehow. Particularly as he likes to play every day.

Putting a .200 hitter and a sub-.200 hitter (who's not healthy) as the 1-2 hitters... what could go wrong?!

Add Bichette to the list of players the team can't afford to IL (with Santander and Springer) when you're a GM fighting for your job.

The idiocy of batting Santander 2nd got real quickly.

Ha that is pretty hilarious.

I subscribe to the not super huge lineup changes. But... you can definitely do the absolute worst thing possible. This is right up there with anything I have seen for worst lineup. Except that Santander probably has a "true talent" higher OPS. But not for the top. 
Also the moral hazard of these avoiding DL moves need to be addressed higher up. When you get to the point of seriously considering firing the GM, then that should be a clincher to can him. That should be explained. 

Sometimes when your strategy choices are flipping the bird at the baseball Gods, the baseball Gods flip you the double bird right back.

The 2023 Jays tried an interesting strategy. You will remember that they decided not to score in the first 5 innings of many games. Innovative but ultimately unsuccessful. This year’s team clearly thinks that the 2023 Jays were on to something but just didn’t lean in hard enough. So, this year they have decided not to score at all and see how that works:(

Hmmm...maybe the Jays are playing the long game by making SPs look good, thereby driving up salaries. Then the Jays swoop in and buy hitters on the cheap. Should only take another 3-5 years, I think.

oh hey the guy down in the 7-hole keeps getting on base tho.

Sanchez can’t hit, can’t bunt and can’t catch. That’s an interesting combo.

it's the quality of Santander's at bats that is truly impressive.

Just like last year they’re back to just throwing FBs by Springer without even really bothering to try anything else.

On the positive side of things Fisher looks like a useful arm to have gotten from
the Dodgers.

yeah i like fisher.

attaboy bo.

our manager is a genius.

Bo looks kinda fat.

Never thought I’d say this but the Jays really need Gimenez back. Clement predictably has been awful offensively (underlying numbers were bad for him last year as well) and he shouldn’t be playing everyday for a team even pretending to want a playoff spot. Once that happens and hopefully common sense prevails and Santander goes on the IL, then maybe the offense will look a little better.

unfortunately clement still has a better hitting line than Gimenez.

Ugly series. Can't believe Jays won two. I'll take it!

Ugly ugly ugly. That was most boring series I think I've had to endure and I've been watching the Jays for a long time. Any worse and that would've been approaching soccer levels of unwatchability. Lord have mercy.

It's over. It's finally over.

Now they get to come home and (hopefully) beat up on an A's team that's lost 11 of 12.

Santander now ranks 13th on the team in wRC+ - i.e. the worst hitter of our arguable best healthy roster.


* 1. LF Lukes 130
* 2. 1B Guerrero 133
* 3. DH Springer 130
* 4. SS Bichette 108
* 5. 3B Barger 104
* 6. C Alejandro 99
* 7. CF Varsho 104
* 8. RF Straw 92
* 9. 2B Clement 73

* B. UT Santander 65
* B. OF Clase 93
* B. IF Gimenez 67
* B. C Heineman 173


worse than Santander:

* Schneider 53
* Roden 52
* Wagner 52
* Stefanic 25
* Sanchez -13

It’s not clear to me that Gimenez is a better hitter than Clement but Clement had been struggling so let’s see if Gimenez can breathe some life into things.

Gimenez is a better hitter and fielder than Clement.

Santander is injured. Pointing out how bad he has been highlights how hurt he is.

Ugly ugly series indeed and well summarized by posters here. I did enjoy the commentary from Buck and Dan even though a bit heavy on the analytic numbers.

Ugly series vs Texas - but think how much uglier it was for them. They started 3 excellent pitchers and lost 2 of 3. With Eovaldi (their ace) going just 2 IP in the win (I'd be very nervous if I was a fan of that team). Plus, poor Semien - I knew that contract was waaaaay too long when he signed with them, and after 3 excellent years he has fallen apart. I noticed in one of his plate appearances the look in his face said it all, he looked like he had no idea what was coming next and was nervous. He had a 45 OPS+ going in and has 3 more years at $26 mil per left after 2 excellent years and 1 very solid year (100 OPS+ but 4.1 bWAR last year). Of course Giménez with his 65 OPS+ looks bad too, but at 26 there is a real hope of recovery, but for Semien at 34? Oh boy.

Clement is probably closer to a true talent 80 wRC+ player. Essentially an IKF type. Gimenez might be something resembling league average offensively. If Gimenez’s 2024 season is reflective of his true ability then yes they are similar offensively, but my guess is he’s better than that. How much better remains to be seen. He was unlucky pre injury. I had a feeling Clement was going to play a lot this season. Some of that has to do with injuries, but the club spent $15M on IKF in a market where 2 WAR players were scrambling for minor league deals, so they are likely very high on Clement who is the same type of player.

We all want Gimenez to hit enough to be a good overall player, but I think we should consider the possibility/probability that he’s going through a Straw- or JBJ-like offensive spiral — that is, a situation where a good defensive player becomes unplayable as a starter because his bat has become so weak.

Since the beginning of 2023, Ernie Clement has had 675 PAs for the Blue Jays. He's hit .268/.294/.391 good for a 93 wRC+ and 3.7 fWAR. According to that metric, he has been a more valuable player per PA than any other current Blue Jay except Alejandro Kirk.

It is not an artifact of fWAR. Clement has 5.2 bWAR over that period.

This year, Clement has a wRC+ of 73, but according to Statcast, he has been actually a little bit better this year- walking more and hitting the ball harder. His LD rate in 2025 is almost triple his pop-up rate.

It's hard to believe that Clement might be a better shortstop right now than Bo Bichette, but that's what the numbers suggest. I do however think that Bichette is at a low point in what will likely be a good career, and if he would agree to an extension of a year or two now to re-establish his value, I would recommend it. Clement is a helluva utility infielder and you can confidently give him 500 PAs in a season.

Clement's career so far has me in mind of Marco Scutaro. Clement is a significantly better defensive player and is probably about equal as a hitter.

Clement isn't remotely close to Scutaro as a hitter. He's the perfect example of why it's ridiculous to do WAR/650 or whatever. The more you see of him, the more you realize you want to be seeing less of him.

One of Scutaro's strengths during his time with the Jays and at his peak was an above average (or at least league average) walk rate.

Clement is walking more (for him) this year, but he also seems diminished offensively otherwise.

Without looking up any of his stats & just from the eye test watching games, he seems to be making less contact, not fouling off balls to prolong ABs and has less sneaky power.

I recall last year the broadcast flashing up all the time that Clement had some of the best contact rates/lowest whiff rates a la Luis Arraez.

I don't see those anymore. I also watch too many ABs were Clement strikes out on a few pitches chasing pitches out of the zone in plate appearances where he made no/ barely any contact whatsoever.

I also used to remember Clement more like Nathan Lukes - a slap hitter who would occasionally run into one and send it over the wall. Clement is playing everyday but has only "surprised me" once this year.

The broadcast has been talking lately that teams aren't throwing Clement fastballs, particularly early in counts. Something about he's seen one of the least FB % in the league.

He has surprised me sometimes with his patience, taking close pitches and actually walking from time-to-time without needing a long, drawn out battle to do it.

Clement will always be an aggressive, frustratingly low OBP hitter. But he hasn't adjusted well to his new steady diet of breaking pitches & offspeed.

It seems more of an issue with a decrease of quality of contact, less contact overall and the decrease in sneaky power than a problem purely with swing decisions.

I don't feel like I want to see less of Clement the more I watch him. In fact, I feel the opposite. He's a significantly above average, if not elite, defender and a very smart player overall. I think his 93 wRC+ since he joined the Jays is about what he's capable of (i.e. a 90-95 wRC+ or slightly below average hitter). I'd peg Gimenez in about the same range offensively and defensively. Hence my comment that its not clear to me that Gimenez is the better hitter. Clement has been struggling for the last week or so though so no issues if Gimenez gets the run his $20m a year buys him.

Seems to me in the offseason that Clement was the most obvious starting piece to try and upgrade on despite his great defensive metrics, and I actually like Clement. He has everything you want in a good bench IF.

Thankfully Barger seems to be establishing himself as a capable 3B.

But that still leaves 2B - and unfortunately as much as you may want to criticize Clement, the truth is that Clement is outhitting Gimenez for the 3rd year running now - the last time Gimenez put up a better hitting line than him was in 2022, and clement is also excellent defensively.

Interesting maybe that both seem to have specific but very different issues this year holding them below their projections - for Gimenez it's mostly about his very low .220babip and .195avg, while for Clement it's all about his passable power completely disappearing so far (.065iso). Both of these issues could easily just be small sample random variance that will correct itself, but there's no guarantees there.

The projections still like both of them, but like Gimenez better.

* Gimenez: 104wrc+, 4.0war/650
* Clement: 95wrc+, 2.8war/650

Hopefully the projections come true for at least one of them. Because their current ~70wrc+ is unplayable, even with great defense.

Though if both of them continue to suck, there is still Leo Jimenez as a potential option.


P.S. there's nothing ridiculous about a war rate stat like war/650, ever. no more ridiculous than looking at batting average or ops or any other rate stat. In clement's case the projections see a below average but not awful bat with very good defense. No magic needed to project a solid war out of that.

By age 29:

* Scutaro: 1029pa, 6.3bb%, 12.7k%, .278babip, .256avg, .132iso, 80wrc+, 1.7war
* Clement: 987pa, 4.1bb%, 11.6k%, .266babip, .248avg, .104iso 79wrc+, 3.2war

interesting comp, Mike! (and not a war/650 to be seen!)

All of these counting stat rates (the ones that are created and tracked by 3rd party companies and not part of a players career numbers) have been thinking of calories. You may need 2000 calories a day but man does the type of calories you put in to make up that number have a huge impact on you. 1200 calories from a burger, shake and pie is not equal to the same amount from nuts, turkey and a green juice. I don't know, maybe this is just the worst metaphor ever produced on this site.

Gimenez's xwOBA is right in line with where it was during his big 2022 season, though he clearly overachieved that season. I wouldn't put too much weight in his 2025 numbers. There was talk that Popkins made an adjustment with him in Spring Training, and we will see if that manifests into something resembling a league average or better bat as the sample size increases. I just don't see Clement having that ability offensively. As I said before, I think he's likely around IKF offensively (~80-85 wRC+), and if you look at wOBA's over the years, he and IKF are fairly similar. For a utility infielder who is great defensively at 3 different spots, that's an asset. For an everyday player, that's not ideal at all.

Hopefully someone like Jimenez is being viewed as Bichette's 2026 replacement rather than Clement.

@Dalimon5 - I think it's a fair point though. Like most modern metrics, they tell us part of a story, but it's not some sort of universal truth. We're always looking for metrics that simplify things, but it's just never that simple. I say that as someone who always has loved the simplicity of OPS, but two players having .800 OPS does not mean they've had the same net offensive value to the team.

Or like how we can over-value expected stats because a player hits the ball hard, but a player hitting the ball hard is not a measure of definitive success. Defensive metrics are already considered the shakiest of metrics, so WAR that comes primarily from defense could very well overrate a player.

Like most things, we'll develop new metrics and in 10 years look back on these metrics and go whoops!

Well said Kelekin.

"For a utility infielder who is great defensively at 3 different spots, that's an asset. For an everyday player, that's not ideal at all."

This is interesting because there is a fine line between the two. A good utility player will spell the regulars once a week which is 3 games. When you don't have a perfectly healthy team then that number goes up to 4, 5 or more starts in a week. Perhaps Clement is a very good utility player and not a good regular but on this team he vacillates between the two roles due to injuries.

I'm biased because I have a soft spot for the Clements of the baseball world (good defenders, smart players, making do without huge athletic gifts). If one's view is that Gimenez is the better player I won't really argue that. He has had one year of success unlike anything that Clement has ever done. But the evidence of Gimenez being better over the past 2 plus years is muddy at best. Even if he is better it hasn't recently been by much. The real problem is that Clement was already on the roster making $2m (and cost controlled for 3 more years) and Gimenez is about to start making $20m plus per year. That should make you go "hmmm".