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Playoffs, baby! Hang on, Tampa Bay already won their game.

Well, much will depend on how the remaining 100 games play out. But a 6-1 homestand leaves very little to complain about. Besides Bowden Francis, of course. 

I suppose there's a genuine possibility that Max Scherzer will be back on the hill before the month is over and when (if) that happens, who's the fifth starter? Francis? or Eric Lauer? Should we assume the audition is in progress? There is also a non-zero chance that Alek Manoah may turn up in August and make any Francis-Lauer discussion irrelevant.

These are interesting days for John Schneider. In Myles Straw and Nathan Lukes, I think Schneider has figured out that he has a couple of useful players, but both are what we might think of as partial players, role players. Lukes doesn't do anything that catches the eye - in particular, he doesn't have the type of extra base pop one would like in an every day outfielder - but he provides a definite level of acceptable competence at pretty well everything. Straw, of course, provides plus baserunning and extra-plus defense. He just isn't enough of a hitter to play every day. The challenge for any manager in those cases is to get the most utility out of what players like this can provide. Everybody does some things better than others, everybody hits some guys better than other guys. Identifying some pitchers that Straw might have a fighting chance against would be useful and so far, so pretty good. Schneider can't really know what he has yet with Clase and Roden, but two of his starting outfielders are on the IL and they won't be seeing a lot of LH pitchers in the immediate future. I imagine he's going to be finding out. 

Three good teams are on the schedule on this nine game road trip, which begins in Minnesota. One assumes the Twins are a good team - they currently hold the first Wild Card spot, they're in second place in their division, even if Detroit looks about ready to disappear into the distance. And wasn't that me somewhat recently noting how the Tigers had suffered such bad luck compared to Baltimore when it came to the Rewards of Being Very Bad? They didn't luck into Adley Rutschmann or Bobby Witt Jr. They got Spencer Torkelson. Well, worms can turn. 

Anyway, I don't know what to make of the Twins - on 2 May they sported an ugly 13-20 record and were already 8 games back of the division lead. So they won their next thirteen games. Granted, six of them were against the Orioles, who I suppose we must now regard once more as a Bad Baseball Team. But still - thirteen games! Winning streaks like that don't come along very often. The Blue Jays have never, ever won thirteen in a row. Ever! 

The Twins have split (8-8) the 16 games they've played since the winning streak ended.

Matchups

Fri 6 June - Schultz (0-0, 1.84) vs Ober (4-1, 3.48)
Sat 7 June - Gausman (5-4, 3.82) vs Paddack (2-5, 3.58)
Sun 8 June - Francis (2-7, 5.84) vs Ryan (6-2, 2.91)
Toronto at Minnesota, June 6-8 | 178 comments | Create New Account
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SK in NJ - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#461079) #
Tonight's lineup has Barger in RF, Clement at 3B, Clase in CF, and Lukes in LF. Looks like the org has lost some faith in Roden, understandably given his performance so far, but probably not ideal to have him sitting on the bench.
greenfrog - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#461084) #
Posted this in the other thread but maybe this is the better place for it. Another positive thing I didn’t mention is the Kirk extension.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the front office is turning the page on its reputation from the last year or two. The MLB team is looking pretty good, thanks to a bunch of quality young position players and a rebuilt bullpen (including very effective young pitchers in Little and Fluharty).

The farm system is much better. As BA noted today, the system is “on the upswing” and “looks like one of the most improved this spring.”

The FO extended Vladdy, which is good for the team and PR with fans.

The stadium and ST facility have been renovated.

The team now seems to have a large annual payroll.

The present and the future are starting to look bright again.
92-93 - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#461085) #
The Jays are slated to face 5 straight RHPs followed by 3 LHPs, and possibly 4 if it's Luzardo again for the Phillies. Hopefully everything is okay with the Wheeler family.

It's silly to call Roden up and give him one start in 8 days. They love optimizing their defense in CF, though, and Ober has reverse splits.

Yariel needs to pitch tonight. By starting Schultz instead of him, the Jays are opening up the possibility that he gets low leverage innings.
greenfrog - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#461086) #
Corbin Burnes is having TJ surgery and may miss the rest of this season and all of the 2026 season.
Kelekin - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#461087) #
Rough for Burnes. Wishing him a speedy recovery.
hypobole - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#461088) #
FG has the Twins with the best pitching in MLB so far, despite their 7th best ERA.
Figure we'll see Eric Lauer tonight. He's been good - his 0.7 bWAR is tied with Varsho for 14th best on the team. With all the draft talk in the other thread, thought I'd bring this up. He was drafted 25th overall back in 2016. Of the 24 players taken ahead of him, exactly 2 have more than Lauers 0.7 bWAR this season - Josh Lowe 1.2 and Matt Thaiss 1.0. In fact of the 40 1st round picks signed that year, 2.2 bWAR Will Smith, who seems to have been the one true 1st round draft hit, is the only other to surpass Lauer.  
Glevin - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#461089) #
Really annoyed at how they are handling Roden. He was awesome in AAA and they basically are ensuring he can't succeed in the majors. Having 3 abs a week just isn't enough for anyone.
scottt - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#461090) #
The Twins have no lefty pitchers.
The Jays could lineup a bunch of left handed hitters if they wanted to.
I'm sure they looked at the splits closely.
scottt - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#461091) #
Nothing they do annoys me when they win 8 out of 10.
However, they've alternated good week, bad week almost continuously, so I'll probably be annoyed by next weekend.
92-93 - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#461092) #
Interesting that the Twins would option down Kody Funderburk (what a name) today to get to the zero lefties situation. Their bullpen is pretty fresh.
greenfrog - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#461096) #
Definitely not ideal from Arizona’s point of view. Burnes signed a 6/$210m contract with an opt-out after 2026. Now he will have been injured for most of the first two years of the contract (2025-26) and he’ll be able to opt out almost as soon as he recovers. Pitchers are just risky to sign to long-term deals.
GabrielSyme - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#461097) #
FG has the Twins with the best pitching in MLB so far, despite their 7th best ERA. fWAR is a poor middle ground when it comes to evaluating pitching. It strips out some components of luck (babip) but not others (hr/fb), therefore crediting some skills but not others (notably sequencing and generating poor contact). Anyway, the Minnesota staff is 5th in the majors by xFIP (stripping out as much luck as we can) and 7th by rWAR (the actual results). They are only first when you give them credit for home run suppression but do not ding them for their poor sequencing.
lexomatic - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#461099) #
Burnes isn't going to opt out after 2026 unless he pitches more than a handful of starts and is better than he's been this year. Nobody will give him more than the 140 million he has left after missing most of the past 2 seasons+ he's close to family.
Jay's bad hitting very annoying to start.
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#461100) #
Roden is 25. He shouldn't need coddling. His job is to produce whenever they use him.
Marc Hulet - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#461101) #
This cutsie opener thing the front office is trying is just not working with the young relievers...
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#461102) #
I don't even really get why.

Lauer would have been a better option to start from the start.
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#461103) #
keep on barging!
Glevin - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#461104) #
It's not coddling to let a guy play sometimes. It is extremely difficult for hitters to get going if they get 4 abs a week. Not saying he has to play every day but with this weak offense, against RHP, it makes no sense to be playing Clase and Clement ahead of him (he only needs one to sit to play) . Jays have played 3 RHP and he has started once. That's just dumb. "we're having trouble scoring runs against most teams so let's call up a guy who dominated AAA and who has hit every level in the minors and just sit him". Roden has 4 abs since called up 8 days ago. You have to let young guys play and find their groove. Otherwise, just trade him and get an asset you are actually going to use.
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#461105) #
I mean they let him play to start the year and he wasn't good.

Meanwhile all of Lukes Straw Schneider Clase Barger Clement have been hitting so i don't know that Roden deserves any favoritism here.
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#461106) #
rbi man Bo comes through again.

I'm all for swapping Springer and Bo in the order.
Marc Hulet - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#461107) #
What's with the quick hook on Lauer?
Magpie - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#461108) #
What's with the quick hook on Lauer?

He pitched four innings on Tuesday. Pitch limit tonight.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#461109) #
What a blast by George! The power surge has been fun.
SK in NJ - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#461110) #
Lauer was forced to pitch Tuesday because of Francis, so I wonder if that's why he was pulled so soon. He needs to be given a longer leash.
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#461111) #
so weird to see a jays team consistently chipping away every inning and getting add-on runs regularly.
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#461112) #
gutsy inning by Little AND by the manager.

pretty fun game here.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#461113) #
I sure am enjoyin’ it!
Glevin - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#461114) #
Huge win. Team playing really well now. Gausman needs to go 7-8 innings tomorrow though.
uglyone - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#461115) #
great win. even when the tandem start didn't go exactly as planned.



i believe that puts us in a tie for the 1st wildcard slot.
BlueJayWay - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#461116) #
Season run differential now up to +1
They were about -40 at one point
scottt - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#461117) #
The guy who got tossed didn't enjoy it, but the strikezone wasn't consistent all game.
scottt - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#461118) #
I love Hoffman when he goes after the bottom of the lineup.

Tough inning for Little. Rodriguez was wildly effective.

The first innings were frustrating as they chased the change up and Schultz had poor control.
greenfrog - Friday, June 06 2025 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#461119) #
The team scored very efficiently tonight, tallying 6 runs (all earned) on 7 hits and 1 walk.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#461121) #

Infielder Michael Stefanic, who the Blue Jays DFA'ed on Tuesday, will remain in the organization

He cleared waivers and accepted his assignment to the triple-A Buffalo Bisons

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) June 7, 2025
Kelekin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#461122) #
Good to hear Stefanic cleared, and important depth given Jimenez and Kasevich being unavailable.

Ali Sanchez also re-signed with the Jays.
Jonny German - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:12 AM EDT (#461126) #
Jays now 6-1 in the 2nd Era of Alan Roden.
scottt - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#461127) #
That Barger bomb instantly changed the game.
Also, Manoah is going to face live batters on Tuesday.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#461131) #
Best sustained run of baseball they've played in two years. That's what the numbers say. And it sure feels like the malaise that it seems like the franchise has been under since the '23 wildcard series is starting to crack.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#461132) #
From Shi Davidi’s piece on yesterday’s game:

“No matter the score, we believe we have a chance to win,” said Bichette. “That's a great feeling and I would say probably not a feeling we had much last year.”
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#461133) #
Paddack will be a good test for the Blue Jays today. After giving up 9 runs in his first start of the season, he hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in any subsequent start. In his last start, his line was an excellent 8.0 4 1 1 1 10

He has a low BABIP this season (.245), though, and he doesn't throw all that hard. Maybe the Blue Jays can get to him.
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#461134) #
What’s more compelling about the Jays over the last month is that there’s no smoke and mirrors. Since April 30 they have a +34 run differential. It’s not a negative run differential and winning games 3-2 like in April. There are real indicators that suggest the collective offensive turnaround is real. The biggest issue is going to be the rotation. Can they hold it together until internal reinforcements (Scherzer, Manoah) or trade reinforcements show up? Either way, win or lose, the Jays are at least playing a more entertaining style now. The slap hitting pitchers duels were exhausting to sit through. Home runs are a lot better. Keep it up.
hypobole - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#461135) #
That "strike" Kirk stole vs Jeffers in the 8th was huge, preventing a bases loaded nobody out. It's rather ironic though after all the years of us complaining about umpiring, MLB will propose an ABS challenge system next year, which may well negatively impact the Jays more than just about any other team.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#461136) #
The ABS will negatively impact the Jays’ competitive advantage with framing but are we sure that eliminating the boost the Yankees get from missed calls won’t be even more beneficial to the Jays? :)
Glevin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#461138) #
I don't even care if it hurts the Jays, the challenge system is good for baseball. It will be interesting to see who is best at judging when to dispute the call. My guess is catchers and some hitters with great eyes.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#461139) #
While it was a ball, it dropped through the zone and missed the bottom by like an inch.

Far from the worst calls we see game in game out.
John Northey - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#461140) #
Agreed Glevin. It will be interesting to see how the Jays and others use it. I could see some players who are overconfident in their judgement (Vlad) wasting challenges early until they get the hint it isn't worth it unless obvious.
Gerry - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#461141) #
I am beginning to think John Schneider doesn't believe in Alan Roden. Look for Roden to be traded at the deadline for pitching help.
Glevin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#461142) #
Again, no Roden. Clase is 2/18 with 0 XBH since Roden was called up. Lukes is 2/12 with 0 XBH in same time period. Clement has a 56 WRC+ against righties on the year. It is crazy that they aren't getting Roden into games at all. The biggest issue for me here are that the Jays top two OF VS RH are injured and Jays are playing 4 OF and Roden still can't get any playing time. What's the plan for him? Give him one start a week and the send him back down once someone is healthy? He'll destroy AAA again but has no chance of getting abs in the majors so what's the point? If he can't get abs now over a bunch of mediocre options, how are they ever going to give him any?
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#461143) #
"Best sustained run of baseball they've played in two years."

“No matter the score, we believe we have a chance to win,” said Bichette."

'What’s more compelling about the Jays over the last month is that there’s no smoke and mirrors."



Agreed with all of these, and they all kinda point to the same thing. I think all of us noticed earlier in the year that they seemed to be playing a better brand of baseball....which made it even more dissappointing when they went into that horrible funk at the end of April.

Nice to see that they've stuck with it and seemingly got through the cold funk without changing the way they were playing.

And tbh a lot of credit to the manager this year - he's used the biggest strength of the roster very well - it's depth. Didn't waste too much time demoting strugglers like Roden and Wagner and Schneider (even though replacements like Barger and Clase and Stefanic were very iffy themselves), while rewarding producers like Lukes and Straw.

He also got a bit lucky that injuries finally took Gimenez and Santander out of the lineup. They were just killing the team. Thankfully it looks like Gimenez may have come back looking effective again, so hopefully that happens with Santander too eventually.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#461144) #

Barger 145pa 135wrc+
Lukes 133pa 116wrc+
Straw 114pa 97wrc+
Roden 88pa 44wrc+
Wagner 68pa 51wrc+
Clase 61pa 69wrc+
Schneider 32pa 129wrc+


Imo Roden's been treated more than fairly so far.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#461145) #
I think it’s hard to criticize Roden’s usage. Now, given that, he should be playing every day in Buffalo. Clase has been higher on the pecking order than Roden and I’ll actually be surprised if in the long run that turns out to be the right call but Clase has the advantage of having come up through the minors as a CF. Now, the defensive metrics and eye test haven’t been kind to Clase’s defense but it’s still a small sample size.
Glevin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#461146) #
Imo Roden's been treated more than fairly so far."

This is ridiculous because there's literally nothing Roden could do with this calculation to deserve time because he was bad in April. Roden had a 177 WRC+ in AAA. How does that not earn some playing time?
scottt - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#461147) #
Paddack has no split. Ryan will start on Sunday and he's been really tough from the right side of the plate.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#461148) #
I guess i'm just not in as much of a rush.

I think the Jays have lots of good depth that deserves playing time. Roden's not the youngest of them and doesn't even project the best of them at this point. I think Roden has had more than his fair share of opportunity so far. I'm sure he'll get more soon enough.


I also don't think Roden is a can't miss prospect. and at age 25 i don't think he'll benefit significantly from playing more in AAA. I also give some possibility of credit to the team that they think this approach may be better for him psychologically than their first attempt to start the year.

I wouldn't be surprised if Clase is demoted before Roden is, when Varsho comes back. I wouldn't be surprised if Lukes and Straw cooled off and put their roster spots into question too.

I guess i'm fine with him being up here and slowly earning more playing time.
scottt - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#461149) #
Bryce Harper has hit the IL.
I guess we won't see any follow up from the tarred bat incident.

The Braves have DFAed Kimbrel one day after rejoined the club and without one pitch.

"It feels good, I've been working hard for the last couple of months to get back here.
Whatever the circumstances are, it's great to be back to come and help this ballclub,
throw some zeroes and do my job."
scottt - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#461150) #
I see now that Kimbrel pitched the 7th.
He walked the lead hitter and watch him get caught stealing, walked the next guy but picked him off and struck out the third guy.

That's not fantastic, but the day before the Braves lost to Arizona 11-10 after blowing a 6 run lead in the 9th.

Weird days.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#461152) #
they seemed to be playing a better brand of baseball

I also think we all noticed this around that time. For me, what has changed since then is that some players on the MLB roster (or players since promoted to the MLB roster) have taken a significant step forward. Barger most notably, but also others. And some veterans have gotten untracked. The other thing that has changed is the real progress that a number of players have made on the farm. The difference between the system last June and this June is substantial. Put it all together, and I think the team and front office may well have entered a new, much more positive, phase. Time will tell, and of course these assessments are always subject to player health.
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#461154) #
"Look for Roden to be traded at the deadline for pitching help."


I get the same feeling, especially with the emergence of Schreck and Pinango in AAA. Eventually they are going to have to move some bodies. If they don't believe in Roden, and it certainly appears that way since they've been playing Clase more even in the corners, then trading him makes a lot of sense.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#461155) #
Kimbrel move is probably salary related, he honestly didn't look bad and all his pitches are grading out well on most metrics. Odd move otherwise.

I'd take Kimbrel, but as long as Swanson gets back to being himself, and with Sandlin back soon, we're looking pretty good right now.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#461156) #
if they wanted to trade Roden it'd probably be best to just keep him raking in AAA rather than sit on the bench, no?

Kelekin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#461157) #
Yeah, I feel similarly. At that point you'd probably want to call up Loperfido, not Roden, if the intention is to have someone ride the pine a bit.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#461159) #
Heineman: .415/.429/.623

Not a bad slash line two months into the season. All the more so for a backup catcher.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#461160) #
Swanson and Green are in line to take the leverage innings today so a few more runs would be super nice.
Super Bluto - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#461161) #
I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Jays should bring up a third catcher so Heineman and Kirk can play worry-free in the same game.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#461162) #
Is Gausman getting squeezed by the home plate ump? On Gameday, some of the pitches called balls look like they’re in the zone or on the edge.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#461163) #
A lot that were close but I think the ump has been pretty much spot on.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#461164) #
The double play to get Gausman out of the 4th was really slick by Clement and Heineman.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#461165) #
The double play to get Gausman out of the 4th was really slick by Clement and Heineman.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#461166) #
Thank you. Good to know. Let’s hope Gausman can last 6-7 innings and hold the line at 2 runs.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#461167) #
Gausman isn’t going to give them 7. He’s struggling and his pitch count is getting up there.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#461169) #
Barger is a sparkplug. Or catalyst. Something like that.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#461170) #
team is pretty fun
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#461172) #
Heineman needed to get his average up. Now hitting .429/.441/.625
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#461173) #
I don’t really understand why Proven Closer has to pitch in this situation. Fisher was solid in the eighth and threw only 12 pitches.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#461174) #
I think a second inning of Fisher would have been my first choice over a tired Hoffman or Swanson.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#461175) #
Ugh HR:(.

Coke to greenfrog.
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#461176) #
If you asked John Schneider prior to the 9th if bringing Fisher back for a 2nd inning was a possibility, then I'm pretty sure he would have had no idea what you were talking about. He's not the manager you want if you want out of the box thinking. Just have to hope a tired Hoffman can get the job done.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#461177) #
that being said, Hoffman's HR problems so far this year, when the rest of his line has been excellent, is kinda weird.

hasn't been a problem for him before.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#461178) #
One advantage to using Fisher would be that, if he struggled, Hoffman would be available to get a final out or two.

Whereas if Hoffman struggled, he would have been left in to give up the lead. This is because he’s a Proven Closer, meaning that he can’t be pulled until it’s too late.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#461179) #
In any event, the Blue Jays won and are 35-29. Impressive.
scottt - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#461180) #
I don't mind Hoffman challenging hitters with the fastball when he's got a cushion.
He's not trying to get a groundball. He's hunting K's.
Let say Clemens gets to first, in a way the situation is worse, you still have the tying run at the plate but now you have to pitch in the stretch.
He's got a pretty good outfield get catch those fly balls.

pooks137 - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#461182) #
BBRef says this afternoon was Lukes first ever MLB start hitting 5th.

Roden is currently the 26th man stuck on Schneider's bench that isn't playing. Clase had that role for a while, then he went on a mini hot streak while Santander was day-to-day. Then Clase was benched for entire series at a time during the offensive drought through the Tampa/Texas road trip while he was actually hitting well. Now Clase is cold again and his reads in CF look awful.

Stefanic took the 26th man role from Clase when Gimenez first got hurt. He didn't play at all for the first week or two. Then Bo had a sore back and he suddenly was in the lineup daily for a week or so, showing a decent eye and some contact ability, but not much else.

Then Roden came up during the Athletics series with Santander going on the IL with his bum him & shoulder. Except the Jays ran into 3 of 4 LHP starters for the As just as Roden made it back to Toronto, so he's barely played in a week+.

I hope the Jays start sitting Clase & Clement more against RHP starters to write in Roden. Clement made some nice plays at 3B today, but his splits are bonkers. And Barger at 3rd is passable .
Jonny German - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#461183) #
It’s a bit weird to be complaining about Schneider doing the same thing 29 other major league managers would have done in bringing in Hoffman. It was bringing in Fisher that was unconventional.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#461184) #
Would all 29 other managers have used Hoffman in the day game following a night game where he was used for an inning in a save situation, when he's already among the MLB leaders in games pitched? I don't know. Maybe?

Anyway, to quote an ancient philosophical text:

Must you value what others value,
avoid what others avoid?
How ridiculous!

Glevin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#461185) #
Great win. Just rolling right now. Reading up on Kimbrel thing, the whole situation is so weird. He clearly didn't have it anymore but he's a bit of a franchise icon and just dumping him after one game after he held press conferences about he felt great coming back is just really weird. Imagine the Jays signing Bautista a year after he stopped playing and letting him build up for two months and then he goes 0-4 and they just cut him. Juat poorly handled.
Magpie - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#461186) #
It was bringing in Fisher that was unconventional.

Indeed. I assumed it was going to be Swanson.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#461187) #
Fisher has been good this year (high K rate, low walk rate, throws hard, 1.58 xFIP). Swanson hasn’t yet re-established himself as a quality late-inning option after his bad year last year. So I wasn’t surprised to see Fisher get used in that situation.

If the young arms (Little, Fluharty, Fisher) keep this up, the team should have a very deep bullpen once Sandlin and Yimi return. Even without Yimi, it’s a good bullpen.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#461188) #
Yeah i don't think the org has near as much confidence in Swanson as many think. He's gotta battle to keep a spot imo.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#461190) #
I try to give Swanson the benefit of the doubt given he was dealing with a terrible and traumatic situation heading into spring training last year, and then got injured. He had a really good 2nd half when he finally came back properly. In those 27 games, he had a 2.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.

Of course, there's no reason to rush him into leverage. I like the idea of slow-playing it and building confidence and making sure his stuff is sharp, because he seems to take awhile to really "build up".

And props to Fisher, who has looked good in all but one appearance.
scottt - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#461191) #
It's probably more accurate to say that Swanson needed a few weeks to re-establish himself when he came back last year.
He's clearly not in mid-year form.

The bullpen imploding was at least half of last year's problems.

It was revealed in the Yankees-Red Sox game that Yarbrough left because the Jays were going to call him up only if he signed a 45 days cancellation clause.
That is exactly what he signed with the Yankees, but he had no problem proving himself to a new team while he felt he had already proven himself with the Jays.

He didn't have a choice when the Jays trade for him and I am assuming the Jays had the best offer last winter.


uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#461199) #
not sure even swanson's 2nd half was all that good, even with the good ERA.

in general swanson is a 31yr old rp with one great year and one good year on his resume. I don't know that i'd be counting on him being any better than Green/Fisher/Sandlin/etc.
pooks137 - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#461200) #
“Advance Consent Form - allows a club to terminate a contract within a maximum allowance of days and not be obligated for the full season of pay but rather just the amount of time spent on the roster. In a normal 162 game season that would be 45 days ... It's only applicable to players with five or more years of major league service (the form cannot be extended to those with less service time per the CBA). It’s usually used for players who do not figure to be everyday players, teams use the clause in order to give themselves as much flexibility as possible.”

Never heard of the "Advanced Consent Form" allowing MLB clubs to sign vets to contracts then cut them with only pro-rated pay up to 45 days into the season.

I found a few articles with players talking about it. Apparently the clause's addition to the CBA dates back to the 94/95 strike.

So that makes more sense why Yarbrough was eager to go elsewhere if the Jays were only offering 45 days of pay & job security.

The way it works is reminiscent of the way that arbitration-awardes salaries aren't guaranteed. Teams can cut players on arb-awarded salaries for portional pay at a few deadlines during the spring. I recall the Jays cutting Reed Johnson for partial pay before Opening Day a few decades back, so he joined the Cubs.

While researching the Yarbrough stuff, I also came across a claim that Yarbrough's 2 million from the Yankees actually works out to a real payment of 4.2 million for them because they are at the max level of 110% overage luxury tax penalties.

Apparently the clause also doesn't apply to players if hurt.

uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#461201) #
related, we may be about to be 4.5gms back of the mighty yankees.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#461202) #
Depending on matchups, the bullpen in order of current managerial preference in leverage situations might be something like:

Hoffman
Yimi
Little
Fluharty
Yariel
Sandlin
Fisher
Green
Swanson
Burr

With Little, Fluharty and Fisher all being arrow-up. Yariel has been good for a while too, hasn’t allowed an earned run in a long time. Lauer has been interesting as a swingman/reliever as well.
Nigel - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#461203) #
Jonny is correct that keeping Fisher in for the 9th would have been a very unconventional call. But, Fisher looked pretty dominant and only threw 12 pitches. It worked, so “all’s well that ends well”. But the odds of Hoffman protecting a one run lead these days feel low.

The thing that has me most optimistic about the season is that all of the big three offseason acquisitions (Santander, Gimenez and Hoffman) have been somewhere on the scale between poor and terrible. A bit of regression to the mean from those three will offset a few current hot streaks (Clement, Barger) and hopefully add to the lineup. Lukes, Barger, Clement and Kirk hitting since the first of May have turned this lineup on its head. Very fun.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#461204) #
yeah greenfrog that feels about right to me.....tho tbh i think Little/Fluharty/Yariel may even be pushing themselves past Yimi (who, let's be fair, is 35 and never been a consistent late inning guy).
greenfrog - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#461206) #
Would Hoffman be more effective if he were used a bit less often? I don’t know the answer to that question. If the answer is yes, then it might make sense to occasionally do something unconventional like use Fisher for a second inning in today’s game.

It’s also worth noting that a lot of highly unconventional things in baseball have become conventional over time (like using your best hitter first or second in the lineup instead of in the cleanup spot, or deploying an opening pitcher for an inning to start a ballgame). Once upon a time, batting average was one of the most, if not the most, important offensive metrics for assessing a hitter’s value.
uglyone - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#461208) #
4.5gms back of the yanks.
John Northey - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#461209) #
Greenfrog - that looks about right to me. Little is the #1 LHP, Fluharty #2 but Schneider seems to have full confidence in both right now (and rightly so). 19 pitchers have been used out of the pen so far. José Ureña, Jacob Barnes, Dillon Tate (resigned here after being removed from the 40 man), Casey Lawrence, and Richard Lovelady have been released (none got to 7 IP - as a group they totaled 23 2/3 IP in 18 games). Walker was traded to the Phillies (5 IP in 3 games). Injured list has Garcia and Sandlin (28 IP in 31 G). Easton Lucas is in AAA (4 2/3 IP in 1 relief game, plus 4 more starts going 17 IP - basically a 4 IP guy each time used), Michael Stefanic is a hitter used for 1 IP once.

Phew, lots of guys who've been used (unlike Burr whose been hurt all year). Lucas the only non-IL guy still here. So 3 guys not currently on the team who have been used this year who aren't here now (Lucas, Garcia, and Sandlin) with the rest released or traded. Green's home run issues have pushed him down a LOT (7 HR in 26 1/3 IP) what is this with our closers having HR issues? Green was it last year, and Hoffman this year has now given up 7 HR in 27 2/3 IP. The big 4 starters have all given up 8 or more HR with Francis 'leading' the league with 17 given up.

Bottom line? There is some depth in the pen, but once Garcia & Sandlin come back who goes? Relievers with options: Little, Fluharty, Fisher, Schultz, and Sandlin - none of whom I want to see go. Starters with options are Francis and Manoah (plus in AAA Lucas, Bloss, and Macko - last 2 on the minors IL). I see Francis as in danger, same for Green and Swanson despite past success for all of them. Sadly more likely it'll be Schultz, Fisher, and/or Lauer who've all been useful (ERA+'s of 229, 101, 183 respectively, and IP of 14 2/3, 10 2/3, 23 2/3). Fisher helped his cause with a solid shutout high pressure inning tonight though. Guess the one thing you can count on with relievers is someone will always be hurt in the pen, thus helping with the pressure of too many good arms.
John Northey - Saturday, June 07 2025 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#461210) #
Jays now have the top wild card slot (by 1 game over the Twins and Rays). 2nd in the AL East (4 1/2 back). Suddenly games vs the Twins (2-0), Guardians (1-2), Royals (0-0), Rays (1-5), and Mariners (4-2, done) all matter a lot more (first tie breaker is head to head record).
92-93 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#461211) #
Davidi reported that back in April, scottt, and I pointed it out in last series' thread. The Jays let Yarbrough walk because they didn't want to guarantee his 2MM.

As for a 3rd C, Super Bluto - it's unnecessary, but if Roden is going to ride the pine vs. RHP so that Clement can play, they might as well carry an extra catcher. Perhaps they'll explore that with the 3-4 straight LH starters coming up vs. STL/PHI.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#461212) #
Bloss is out for the year and beyond. Macko is off the IL and assigned to AAA now
pooks137 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#461214) #
Davidi reported that back in April, scottt, and I pointed it out in last series' thread. The Jays let Yarbrough walk because they didn't want to guarantee his 2MM.

I think there's more details & nuance reported recently by Rosenthal re: Yarbrough.

As I understand it, the reporting Davidi did in January was a simple "veteran has an opt-out forcing team to place player on the 26-man by X date or he can declare FA".

In that case, Yarbrough would've been guaranteed the whole 2 million the very day he would've been added to the 26-man roster (or at least the pro-rated amount) if he lasted a day or the entire year.

The "Advanced Consent Form" the Jays & Yankees were requiring Yarbrough to sign would allow either team to "try out" Yarbrough for an additional 6 weeks on the big league roster before having to commit to the entire 2 mil for the year. That point has now passed, so the Yankees bought the whole package.

So this mysterious Advanced Consent Form clause takes some of the pressure off the Front Office in having to make all-or-nothing cuts on Opening Day.

dalimon5 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#461215) #
"Hot stretch comes to crashing halt
Yarbrough (3-1) took the loss against Boston on Saturday, allowing eight runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out three batters over four innings.
Advice: Yarbrough entered Saturday having tossed two straight quality starts and having posted a minuscule 1.76 ERA across his previous 30.2 innings, but he couldn't keep up that momentum against the Red Sox. The left-hander was particularly doomed by a five-run Boston third inning. Yarbrough's season ERA jumped from 2.83 all the way up to 4.17 as a result of the poor outing, and the loss was his first of the campaign. He'll try to bounce back in his next start, which is tentatively slated to be a rematch against Boston, this time on the road."
92-93 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#461216) #
https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/as-blue-jays-search-for-fifth-starter-yarbroughs-fit-even-more-apparent/

Yariel and Swanson are the fresh RP today, with Fisher/Green/Fluharty available too.
pooks137 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#461217) #
What Yarbrough means by “guaranteeing standpoint” is that the Blue Jays wanted him to sign an advanced consent, which would have allowed them to keep him on the roster up to 45 days without guaranteeing the entire $2-million major-league salary called for in his minor-league contract. Doing so would have left him on the roster bubble and there was no need for him to carry such risk when, as it turned out, the Yankees were willing to lock him in for the same $2-million base salary, plus performance incentives.

So Davidi did mention the Advanced Consent clause request in passing on April 28th in an article 6 weeks ago. But not a month earlier when the decision to cut Yarbrough was actually made AFAICT.

Davidi's reporting here seems to contradict the more recent Rosenthal/Yankees broadcast narrative that the Yankees asked Ryan to sign the same Advanced Consent clause. And that he did. Davidi implies here that the Yankees 1) offered the 2 mil guaranteed from signing day & 2) offered a sweetener with incentives that the Jays didn't.

It's interesting with the decisions around the clause & cutting Yarbrough at the end of camp that the actual inclusion & request to sign the clause came contemporarily at the end of March when setting the Opening Day roster, not back in Feb when Yarbrough actually signed his minor league deal with the Jays shortly before camp.

This would suggest that the clause can be added to an existing contract, which would be unusual for MLBPA OP, or that it is added by having the player sign a new contract entirely, possibly after they opt out of their initial veteran minor league one with call-up & rostering deadlines.

I could've sworn that in my attempts to read more about Advanced Consent Forms in MLB, one of the conditions was that the contract in question had to be signed X days before the start of the season. Which wouldn't have been met in either the Jays renegotiated case or the Yankees last minute signing one.

uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#461218) #

* Lauer: 8gms, 3.3ip/gm, 53era-, 95fip-, 108xfip-, 1.4war/32gms
* Yarbrough: 14gms, 3.2ip/gm, 104era-, 107fip-, 93xfip-, 0.8war/32gms
* Schultz: 7gms, 2.4ip/gm, 82era,-, 93fip-, 73xfip-, 0.0war/32gms
* Urena: 6gms, 2.1ip/gm, 93era-, 152fip-, 137xfip-, 0.0war/32gms
* Lucas: 5gms, 4.1ip/gm, 148era-, 134fip-, 102xfip-, -0.9war/32gms
92-93 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#461219) #
Schneider is playing the career #s today - Straw .313/.827 in 16PA vs. Ryan is in the lineup , Gimenez .227/.579 in 22PA is not. With Francis on the mound, you want the best CF you have out there.
92-93 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#461220) #
Yarbrough is averaging 5ip/gm in his 6 starts, and more if you take away the first one when he wasn't yet stretched out. He's been a fantastic 5th SP (4-2 team record, 4.20era) for the Yankees, even with yesterday's shellacking.
Glevin - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#461221) #
I get the feeling that Gimenez isn't fully healthy. He's being rested regularly since back and hasn't tried to steal yet despite a number of opportunities.
92-93 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#461222) #
They speculated the same on the broadcast yesterday when he looked like he had no thought of going first to third on a single.
Nigel - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#461223) #
If Gimenez isn’t healthy then there is zero reason to have activated him. They aren’t stuck for options at 2B and having Barger back at 3B seems better in the long term interests of both Barger and the team. All of that is before Gimenez himself and that, given his play to date, you’d like to see him given the best possible chance to succeed.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#461224) #
I tend to agree with that. I guess maybe the team thinks Gimenez can continue to work towards being 100% while continuing to play at least some of the time. He’ll also get a breather at the All-Star break.
hypobole - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#461225) #
Here's a tough question. Who has been the "star" on the Jays thus far? FG has Kirk's 1.8 WAR as the highest, tying him with 9 others for 50th in MLB . BRef has Kirk 11th on the Jays with 0.9 WAR; Clement's 1.8 WAR is their highest. Agree with one or the other or neither?
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#461226) #
Agree with neither. The star has been Vladito who once again has been hitting with ghost protection behind him. After him I would say Springer and then Kirk.
pooks137 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#461227) #
Roden starting in LF today batting 8th in front of Straw.

Clement at 2B, Barger at 3B, Lukes in RF, Springer at DH.

Gimenez sitting.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#461228) #
Barger is starting to make a case for himself as a core player on the roster. 1.5 fWAR in significantly fewer PA than Kirk, Clement, Vladdy, Springer or Bo.

Barger might end up with the most WAR of any player on the team this year. (Or he could cool down and settle in as a good but second tier player on the roster.)
Nigel - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#461229) #
Because there hasn’t been “great” performances on the Jays this year, the “star” of the season is going to be very much a “beauty is in the eye of the beholder” discussion. More than most years, it will come down to valuation of defense. Depending on how you answer this question: “which was the more important play yesterday - the Springer HR or the Clement/Heineman DP?” will largely dictate where you come out on the issue. Without cheating I’d rank it: Kirk, Clement and Springer. Cheating, I’d give it to Litharty or Fluttle as our lefty leverage guys have been unexpectedly fantastic.
Magpie - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#461230) #
I get the feeling that Gimenez isn't fully healthy. He's being rested regularly since back and hasn't tried to steal yet despite a number of opportunities.

Maybe, but he's hitting out of the bottom of the order now. If he gets on base it will be with Bichette and Guerrero coming up. He's not as likely to be running. He looked pretty spry Friday night, scoring from second on a one-out bloop in front of the outfielder. He gets very good reads on the ball in play and makes up his mind pretty quickly.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#461232) #
"Litharty or Fluttle"

Heh. Nice.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#461233) #
"Yarbrough is averaging 5ip/gm in his 6 starts, and more if you take away the first one when he wasn't yet stretched out. He's been a fantastic 5th SP (4-2 team record, 4.20era) for the Yankees, even with yesterday's shellacking."

Or, alternatively, yarbrough had an amazing 3-start run out of nowhere that was most likely a complete fluke.
hypobole - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#461234) #
I'm wondering if a star could be given to our new hitting coach (coaches?). Case in point - last year,  Springer looked ready to be tossed on the "bring out your dead" cart. Mentioned on the broadcast the other day he's been working to get the ball up in the air more. Just checked and holy crap. He's gone from a godawful 50.7 GB% last year to 35.5% this year. He's also hitting the ball harder than he ever has. His 91.3 EV is almost 4 mph better than last year and is the 1st season it's been over 90, Combined with his launch angle returning to his 2020/2021 levels, his barrel% is at a career best 19.4%, more than double any of his previous 3 seasons. 
Nigel - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#461235) #
I’m not picking on that comment specifically uo but I never really understood the “Yarbrough is a fringe MLB pitcher” argument. He has over 800 MLB innings to his name, career ERA of 4.20 and a career ERA- of 102. He’s been a league average pitcher across a significant number of innings. He’s a legit MLB pitcher and has a place on a MLB roster if used properly. I think he would have been very useful to this Jays team but the ship has sailed so I wish him the best except when the Jays play the Yankees.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#461236) #
never apologize for picking on me!


Yeah, yarbrough has been a solid swingman for his career. Never more than a fill-in starter / long reliever, but solid enough in that role.

He started off strong in TB, but kind of as a "trick" pitcher with his complete lack of velo, and seemed to get figured out and the rays eventually dropped him after his age 30 season.

In the three years since he's pitched for four teams, putting up this line:

83gms, 2.8ip/gm, 93era-, 107fip-, 109xfip-, 0.8war/32gms

I'm sure he'll continue on being a decent enough fill-in guy in that swingman role.


But i don't see him as any better an option than a guy like Lauer, or even as good an option tbh, and Lauer was willing to take a purely incentive-based deal.

uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#461238) #
yeah hypo i also took a look at springer's statcast data and whoa it seems unarguable that he has made a very clear change at the plate.

EVs, Barrels, Launch Angle, Hard hit - all at or near career highs. (though interestingly while his average EV is way up, he hasn't come near his old max EVs yet.

Makes me think that maybe the past couple years as his skills slowly deteriorated, instead of making any drastic changes he instead just tried to get back to his old swing, thinking it was just a slump. And maybe now this year he decided that wasn't going to work, and he needed to make some significant adjustments.

That would explain the data nicely, but might also mean that there's a new look that pitchers just aren't used to, and that eventually they make some adjustmments to his new approach/swing.
Nigel - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#461239) #
Ryan has been tough so far. But a bunch of pretty good ABs have his pitch total up to 42 in 2 innings.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#461240) #
In hindsight, not having Yarbrough may not be a big deal, as it turned out the FO constructed a good and deep bullpen that includes unheralded players like Little, Fluharty, Fisher and Lauer.

But the team did take a hit at times early on in 2025 when they could have used a long reliever/swingman with a rubber arm like Yarbrough, instead of going one inning at a time in the middle innings with guys like Barnes and Lovelady and Green, and letting Gausman throw 53 pitches in an inning one time because the bullpen was so stretched. And maybe Yimi got injured and Hoffman became less effective and/or suffered excess wear-and-tear because they had to pitch so much in that context (because all the other one-inning arms got used up in the middle innings so often).
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#461241) #
speaking of which - who is the long man today?


Schneider better have his hook ready to go.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#461242) #
please pull him.
SK in NJ - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#461243) #
The Jays don't have a realistic long man today with the bullpen game on Friday, so if/when Francis implodes, they have to let him eat up at least 5 innings.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#461245) #
Remind me again why the Blue Jays cut Urena? He seems like someone who could have helped the team in the short term, if only to save the bullpen from getting torched.
Magpie - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#461246) #
i also took a look at springer's statcast data

I didn't, I'm a lazy sod. But Springer hit just .245 on his BallsInPlay last year - he was a career .300 hitter on them coming into the season - so I figured a big part of his problem last year was simply Old Evil Luck, especially with all the balls he was hitting on the ground.

obviously, hitting the ball harder doesn't hurt!
lexomatic - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#461247) #
<interesting comment on the radio in this 2nd inning. Apparently when Francis gets 2 strikes he goes outside. He went inside & that was noteworthy.
Hmm maybe he's being predictable.
Haven't watched a game in forever, so it's hard to knownifb4 walks in 2 ip is bad pitching or umpiring.
Anyway, I still think the stats cast numbers call for a good investigation of Francis.
Glevin - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#461248) #
Jays have enough long-men. Two is plenty (and Yariel can go multiple innings as well) and I'm not sure any team carries more. The issue is that Jays don't have a fifth starter so then have to use both their long men in same game and they have currently the worst starter in the league two days later so need long-men again. The issue all year has been #4/#5 starters. Maybe Turnbull/Macko change things a bit
pooks137 - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#461249) #
Urena was simply a numbers game.

They cut Urena to bring up Easton Lucas as a spot starter against the As last weekend.

The only realistic optionable guys in the pen are Fisher & Schulz, who are both pitching well. Guys like Little, Fluharty and Francis have options, but are either more complicated or don't deserve to go down.

I wish they'd kept Urena too, but they weren't using him as either a starter or a long man/mop up guy anyway.

A guy like Urena is wasted if you are only letting him go 2 innings very sporadically.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#461250) #
I'm assuming that Francis has no more options left, right?

because they could have chosen to drop Francis instead of dropping Yarbrough or Urena.

If he does have an option left, then that's something i might criticize the FO for not using already, because it forced them to lose some serviceable pitchers.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#461251) #
that's a huge pickoff.

gives Francis a chance to make it through the 4th inning without facing the top of the order again.
hypobole - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#461252) #
Maybe Kirk is the star.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#461253) #
Why aren’t we just stretching out Yariel?
Glevin - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#461254) #
Because Yariel has been great as a short inning reliever and very poor as a starter. With Lauer, Turnbull, Macko, and Scherzer, Jays hopefully could have enough to go on at end of rotation. They just can't keep running Francis out there. It's embarrassing.
SK in NJ - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#461255) #
Francis might be the worst SP in MLB right now. He should not be starting another big league game. He should be demoted after this game.
lexomatic - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#461256) #
Wow Francis just lost it.
So question... is a 1° change in arm angle enough to mess up command and reduce velocity? Or is it some minor physical issue he's been playing through ? A combination? Has thr gsme-calling been too predictable on top of that? Or does he not have good enough stuff to get away with a close mistake.

I feel like there should be an explanation for such a drastic fall-off. He was efdective for more than a half season.
Cracka - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#461257) #
Francis does indeed have one option remaining and I would not be surprised at all if he's on his way to Buffalo tonight and not St. Louis with the rest of team. Spencer Turnbull needs to be added, unless he renegotiates his contract, but regardless Francis doesn't have it right now and should be given a chance to continue to start in the minors vs. moving to long relief in the majors.



lexomatic - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#461258) #
<

Tbh thr main difference I see is performance vs LHB. Huuuge platoon splits. Getting destroyed & facing more of them. He needs a LHP opener or change in tactics vs lefties. Or both.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#461259) #
half a season of success is really not all that much. not enough to have the league get a book on you.

Guys like Chacin/Litsch/Towers were able to go a good season and a half before getting figured out.

Francis rocked a .211babip last year despite never showing any particular ability to do that in the minors. Also kept his hr/fb rate way lower than he did in the minors.

Magpie - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#461260) #
Francis does indeed have one option remaining and I would not be surprised at all if he's on his way to Buffalo tonight

I'm surprised that he has an option remaining. But in that case... make it so.

Francis was pretty lucky he only allowed four runs today - he needed some very nice defensive plays from Barger, Kirk, and Guerrero to limit the damage. But there's no defense against the home run. Or the walk.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#461261) #
gunshow!
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#461262) #
yeah i have a lot of time for Fisher. he just gave us a chance.
Cracka - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#461263) #
Francis was added to the 40-man roster in November 2021, and used two options in 2022 and 2023. Last season, he was optioned in July but only for 15 days; it takes 20 days to burn an option. His other starts in Buffalo were on rehab and not on option. If the front office did this on purpose, it was a brilliant maneuver that will likely pay off shortly ... I don't expect him to start for us next weekend.
Gerry - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#461264) #
I think the lack of a star is contributing to the teams success. Everyone is contributing at the plate, same is that everyone is helping on defense and with the exception of Francis the pitching is good. The best teams can beat you in many ways, this years Jays can do that.
Glevin - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#461265) #
Francis should be sent down tomorrow so jays can get a fresh reliever who can go long if needed up for tomorrow's game. (Lucas?) Jays can send that guy down when they need a starter next.
John Northey - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#461266) #
FanGraphs has Francis with 1 option left, Little has 2, and a full set of 3 for Fluharty, Fisher, and Schultz. No other pitcher currently on the ML roster has options left. On the 40 you have Sandlin (3), Lucas (2), Bloss (2), Macko (2). Tate is in AAA but off the 40 with an option left, same for Justin Bruihl (1 year ML service time, not that good but has a 60% GB% in AAA with 11.08 K/9).

I'm guessing Turnbull comes up unless his pay is guaranteed if he does - in which case he might just be dumped as 2 starts in AAA 6 1/3 IP 9 H 7 R/ER 5 BB 4 SO doesn't suggest 'helpful' to me.
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#461267) #

Jun9: Berrios (4 days rest)
Jun10: Bassitt (4)
Jun11: Lauer* (4) (* = aka tandem start)
Jun12: Off
Jun13: Gausman (5)
Jun14: Berrios (4)
Jun15: Bassitt (4)
Jun16: Off
Jun17: Lauer* (5)
Jun18: Gausman (4)
Jun19: Berrios (4)
Jun20: Bassitt (4)
Jun21: ?????
Jun22: Lauer* (4) (or maybe Gausman on 3 days?)
Jun23: Off
Jun24: Gausman (5)
Jun25: Berrios (5)
Jun26: Bassitt (5)
Jun27: Lauer* (4)
Jun28: ????


So we don't actually need another starter for another 13 days, and for the second time in 20 days from now.


I know Scherzer was supposed to throw 50-55 pitches today in florida - did that happen?

That might not have him in line for June 21, but maybe for June 28?
Magpie - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#461268) #
Francis rocked a .211babip last year despite never showing any particular ability to do that in the minors.

Which was already unlikely to continue - league average was .286 - and as I've noted repeatedly, that BABiP was a well-nigh impossible .125 over the last two months. Unpossible! The league's BABiP is .289 this year, and Francis was at .293 coming into today's game.

This is exactly like Springer - things returning to normal - just in reverse.
Kelekin - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#461269) #
Turnbull called up. Schultz optioned.
Cracka - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#461270) #
My understanding of the Turnbull contract is:
- $1 million guaranteed (actually a $1.2M+ salary but prorated to a May 5th start date).
- $1.5 million of playing time / innings pitched incentives.
- Must be added to MLB roster in 35 days (~June 10th).

If he is released and signs elsewhere, his new salary offsets what he is owed by Toronto. He might be willing to extend his minor league stint for a little bit, but those incentives will become harder and harder to reach as the season goes on. I think the timing is right to give him a start next weekend, but I'm not expecting much based on his minor league outings... Pete Walker can make magic happen though.
lexomatic - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#461271) #
Francis rocked a .211babip last year despite never showing any particular ability to do that in the minors.

Which was already unlikely to continue - league average was .286 - and as I've noted repeatedly, that BABiP was a well-nigh impossible .125 over the last two months. Unpossible! The league's BABiP is .289 this year, and Francis was at .293 coming into today's game.

This is exactly like Springer - things returning to normal - just in reverse.




Except there was both a significant departure in pitch mix and effectiveness last year that could have explained a new skill,even though 211 babip would regress. And differences that could explain a worse than expected performance this year. I mean it really could be as simple as seeing a significantly higher % of LHB AND getting destroyed by them (3x as many HR as last year and higher than established rate.


From a purely numbers standpoint, he's pitching since mid April like he was in April of Last season... but I dont know what is different about then, now, and 2nd half last season.

The expectation is that he would be serviceable, so I think it's interesting if something can be determined from free stuff.

I think putting this down to babies is too easy and insufficient to describe what's happening.
Of course it could just be luck & regression, But it doesn't feel like it.

I thought they would send Francis down instead of Schultz. But I guess Francis is the mop-up guy now? Hopefully Furnbull was really just working on things and he isn't going to be more of the same.
Glevin - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#461272) #
I don't get why the Jays aren't sending Francis down. He's literally been the worst starter in baseball for two months. I think the front office gets its fair share of unfair targeting with this is starting to remind me on 2021 when Jays had obvious massive bullpen issue and Jays kept sending out Tyler Chatwood and Dolis and Thornton et all and expecting the bullpen to somehow get better and then made a half-assed move to get Hand. Starting Francis is killing the Jays. Jays are now 4-9 in his starts and 31 and 21 when everyone else starts. You can't say you want to contend and keep starting him. Either find internal options or make a trade for an actual pitcher who can keep the team in games. The season isn't infinite and making a slow decision here could mean the difference between playoffs or not. Send Francis to the minors to see if he can regain something. Last year was clearly a fluke but he was so insanely good that even a regression should produce a half-decent pitcher.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#461273) #
I've seen Turnbull pitch for the Jays affiliates and he looks like a guy about a third to half way through his spring. And he's rockin' a 91 mph fastball.

I don't understand why Francis wasn't sent down to reset... or Swanson tbh...
uglyone - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#461274) #

Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
1h
Max Scherzer "was good" during a simulated game of 3 IP/50 pitches at Dunedin, said Blue Jays manager John Schneider.

Daulton Varsho played and homered. "Max will probably laugh about that," he added.

Will throw a side on normal day at PDC "and then we'll go from there."
Magpie - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#461275) #
[Francis has] literally been the worst starter in baseball for two months.

And for the final two months of 2024, he was literally the best starter in baseball.

I should think that going from .125 to .293 on the BallsInPlay is sufficient to explain this crazy swing, but why? (Ay, there's the rub!) Because there's probably something more to it than the random acts of the ball in play. Anyway, he's becoming the Davis Schneider of the pitching staff - he's either a world-beater or completely unplayable, with nothing in between.
Magpie - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#461276) #
Francis has now allowed 19 HR in 60.1 IP; the single season record is 50, set by Bert Blyleven in 1986. Blyleven did need to pitch 271.2 innings to allow all those dingers, but at his current pace, Francis would get there in just 158.2. Obviously, no one is going to allow that to happen. But I'm still impressed.

Hey, jeering and mocking worked last year. Nothing left to lose...
Kelekin - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#461277) #
It's mostly weird because sending Schultz down would imply they want a fresh arm. The only fresh arm on the 40-man is Lucas.

As much as I'd love for Turnbull to work out, it feels more likely Macko is going to get a shot sooner rather than later.
John Northey - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#461278) #
I don't get it - Schultz has a 2.67 xFIP and 3.06 ERA right now in 17 2/3 IP. Francis has a 4.91 xFIP and 6.12 ERA right now in 60 1/3 IP. It seems pretty clear who is more effective at the moment and who needs to be sent down, but the Jays went the other way. You can't say it is due to Francis showing signs of getting out of his funk after a 3 1/3 IP start (4 R 2 HR 5 BB 2 SO) or due to Schultz doing poorly (1 IP 2 H 3 SO, otherwise 0's) today. It just doesn't make one iota of sense to me. I'd rather have Schultz start and give you 3 solid innings (0 or 1 run) than send out Francis again and probably get 3+ IP with 3+ runs allowed.
mendocino - Sunday, June 08 2025 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#461279) #
In each of the next 3 five-game stretches Jay's have an off day. Won't need a 5th starter till 27th-28th of June.

Jay's may feel Francis better off with Walker & company then the Buffalo crew
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#461284) #
For me it’s just all about innings. They can’t keep having these games where they use 6 guys. They need more length. Hopefully this bumps Francis into a LR role, and Lauer can come in after Turnbull as he continues to build up
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#461285) #
yeah i can't really make sense of it.

just from a rest standpoint, Francis is less able to be used over the next few games than the relievers. Couple that with the fact that he's been far less effective than all of them and it makes little sense.

and even if they really, really, REALLY believe in Francis, it still seems to make sense to send him down and let him sort himself out in AAA, especially when we have a bunch of off days over the next couple weeks.

tbh i seem to remember over the years them making an immediate move that was strange and then making the more logical move a few days later, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen here. maybe they want to be more careful with how they help francis handle the demotion psychologically or something.




scottt - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#461286) #
Maybe Walker is working on something with Francis and doesn't want him to go work on it on his own.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#461287) #
There is no question that the Springer HR was the more important play on Saturday.

Clement has the lowest WPA on the active roster. You need to really love defense to think he's been the MVP of the team.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#461289) #
Plausible Best Lineup using....

(asterisk = platoon)


...This Year's Stats Only:

1. DH Springer 236pa, .295babip, .365obp, 142wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 287pa, .297babip, .380obp, 129wrc+
3. RF Barger 154pa, .297babip, .325obp, 129wrc+
4. SS Bichette 294pa, .301babip, .316obp, 110wrc+
5. CF Varsho 100pa, .196babip, .240obp, 108wrc+
6. C Alejandro 203pa, .323babip, .350obp, 109wrc+
7. LF Lukes* 141pa, .286babip, .358obp, 119wrc+
8. 3B Clement 210pa, .299babip, .315obp, 98wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 158pa, .230babip, .285obp, 73wrc+

B. UT Santander 209pa, .218babip, .283obp, 66wrc+
B. OF Straw* 117pa, .315babip, .310obp, 91wrc+
B. IF Schneider 32pa, .333babip, .406obp, 128wrc+
B. C Heineman 59pa, .489babip, .441obp, 203wrc+

X. OF Clase 65pa, .286babip, .281obp, 57wrc+
X. OF Roden 92pa, .210babip, .250obp, 47wrc+
X. IF Wagner 68pa, .250babip, .284obp, 51wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 25pa, .211babip, .280obp, 41wrc+
X. C Sanchez 11pa, .250babip, .182obp, 20wrc+



...Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

1. DH Springer 607pa, .275babip, .332obp, 121wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 707pa, .325babip, .393obp, 161wrc+
3. RF Santander 632pa, .223babip, .297obp, 111wrc+
4. C Alejandro 469pa, .307babip, .337obp, 107wrc+
5. 3B Barger 361pa, .273babip, .292obp, 102wrc+
6. 2B Clement 545pa, .287babip, .303obp, 102wrc+
7. CF Varsho 393pa, .258babip, .276obp, 92wrc+
8. SS Bichette 378pa, .293babip, .302obp, 95wrc+
9. LF Lukes* 232pa, .299babip, .363obp, 124wrc+

B. UT Schneider 277pa, .232babip, .260obp, 57wrc+
B. OF Straw* 121pa, .313babip, .326obp, 92wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 539pa, .265babip, .283obp, 72wrc+
B. C Heineman 73pa, .460babip, .311obp, 171wrc+

X. UT Wagner 154pa, .315babip, .314obp, 92wrc+
X. OF Clase 96pa, .313babip, .326obp, 92wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 210pa, .311babip, .329obp, 102wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 73pa, .292babip, .274obp, 107wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 219pa, .290babip, .242obp, 62wrc+
X. OF Roden 92pa, .210babip, .250obp, 47wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 149pa, .257babip, .297obp, 60wrc+
X. C Sanchez 107pa, .232babip, .208obp, 12wrc+



.....Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections:

1. SS Bichette 386pa, .317babip, .326obp, 116wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 407pa, .300babip, .373obp, 143wrc+
3. C Alejandro 288pa, .295babip, .348obp, 115wrc+
4. RF Santander 293pa, .256babip, .312obp, 114wrc+
5. 3B Barger 293pa, .290babip, .315obp, 108wrc+
6. DH Springer 369pa, .276babip, .328obp, 112wrc+
7. CF Varsho 310pa, .256babip, .292obp, 103wrc+
8. 2B Gimenez 381pa, .294babip, .320obp, 102wrc+
9. LF Lukes* 203pa, .314babip, .340obp, 113wrc+

B. UT Schneider* 75pa, .288babip, .324obp, 107wrc+
B. OF Roden 176pa, .289babip, .335obp, 107wrc+
B. IF Clement 155pa, .284babip, .306obp, 99wrc+
B. C Heineman 100pa, .301babip, .323obp, 95wrc+

X. UT Wagner 63pa, .314babip, .344obp, 110wrc+
X. OF Clase 80pa, .304babip, .296obp, 86wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 13pa, .308babip, .335obp, 109wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 4pa, .285babip, .280obp, 93wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 21pa, .315babip, .299obp, 94wrc+
X. OF Straw 92pa, .295babip, .304obp, 79wrc+
X. IF Martinez 25pa, .258babip, .278obp, 89wrc+
X. C Sanchez 4pa, .287babip, .282obp, 77wrc+

X. UT Stefanic 9pa, .310babip, .356obp, 109wrc+
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#461290) #
Vladdy's been the MVP for me.

Even though he;s been just very good and not quite great at the plate, he's been as good as anyone else, even though he's the one guy in the lineup the other team gameplans around.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#461291) #
Might as well put some asterisks next to Gimenez and Schneider too.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#461293) #
I don't really have an MVP because I think there are a whole bunch of Jays who have been good but nobody great. If I had to pick, probably Kirk. Clement's D has been amazing but his offense is basically two incredible games against Oakland and aside from that, it's been bad. Vlad has a 129 WRC+ which is lower than you'd want. Springer best offensive player but his D has declined a lot. Barger probably #2 for me option but need a bit more since he had a slow start. Varsho would be in picture if he were healthy but he hasn't been. Gausman and Bassit also both been very valuable but not elite.

It's a well-balanced team right now but would also be nice if Vladdy or someone else goes crazy and becomes elite for the rest of the year.

92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#461294) #
I agree with Kirk, but really there's little difference between Kirk, Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#461296) #

Vladdy on June 9th:

2025: 287pa, 13.6b%, 14.3k%, .297babip, .380obp, .145iso, 129wrc+
2024: 287pa, 12.5b%, 17.1k%, .340babip, .383obp, .132iso, 136wrc+

I'd say that this year's line is even more promising than last year's was at this point.

Plenty of time for vladdy to get back into a power groove the rest of the way.
electric carrot - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#461301) #
Is Tyler Heinman in the MVP debate? Probly not, but oddly he is definitely giving the Jays the best value per start. His OPS is over a thousand. His defense stats by several measures are also great. And he's also been very consistent.
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