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On to Missouri!

The Cardinals find themselves in the thick of the battle for a post-season berth, and I'm not sure this was on a lot of bingo cards. It seemed like the most newsworthy thing that happened for them this off-season was letting their Hall of Fame first baseman sign with one of those rich American League teams.

But here they are. They're fourth in the NL in scoring runs, which is a neat trick seeing as how they're below the league average in things like hitting home runs and drawing walks. They also hit into a few double plays. But they sure do get a lot of hits. Getting hits is pretty much what the offense is based on. As you can imagine, this does come in handy when there are people on base, and they do indeed get enough hits to actually have men on base. 

The Cardinals are just a little better than the league average at run prevention, and one assumes that much of this can be attributed to their very good defensive play. Their pitchers, the starters in particular, don't bother striking out hitters (only the hapless Colorado pitchers have fanned fewer hitters.) Sonny Gray, who the Jays won't be seeing, is the only starter who strikes out more hitters than the league average - the rest are all well below that mark. But they don't hand out any free passes (fewest in the NL) and they keep the ball in the park (the entire staff has allowed just 51 HR - insert your own Bowden Francis joke here.) This was the formula that worked for Whitey Herzog's fine teams in the 1980s - but that was a different time, and perhaps more importantly, it was a very different ball park. And Ozzie Smith is retired. I'm surprised it still seems to work so well.

The Blue Jays hitters, of course, have struck out less often than any team in the major leagues. We should expect to see some Balls In Play over the next few days.

Matchups

Mon 9 June - Berrios (2-2, 3.67) vs Palante (4-3, 4.91)
Tue 10 June - Bassitt (6-3, 3.56) vs Mikolas (4-2, 3.96)
Wed 11 June - S.Guy (?-?, ?.??) vs Liberatore (3-5, 3.82)

Toronto at St.Louis, June 9-11 | 213 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#461317) #
For fun lets do a comparison using fWAR by position...
  • C: Jays #2 (3.2); Cards #11 (1.8)
  • 1B: Jays #11 (1.1); Cards #12 (1.1)
  • 2B: Jays #7 (1.4); Cards #3 (1.7)
  • 3B: Jays #10 (1.6); Cards #12 (1.2)
  • SS: Jays #15 (1.1); Cards #4 (2.8)
  • LF: Jays #14 (0.8); Cards #8 (1.2)
  • CF: Jays #8 (1.5); Cards #20 (0.5)
  • RF: Jays #20 (0.1); Cards #21 (0.1)
  • DH: Jays #12 (0.5); Cards #20 (0.0)
  • SP: Jays #28 (1.5); Cards #13 (5.6)
  • RP: Jays #8 (2.4); Cards #11 (1.8)
  • Hitters: Jays #11 (105); Cards #10 (106) wRC+
  • Pitchers: Jays #22 (3.9); Cards #12 (7.4)
  • Defense: Jays #1 (24.1); Cards #3 (13.4) - Runs via Def score
So basically 2 teams which field damn well (Atlanta inbetween them on ranking) 4 top 10's for the Jays (C-2B-CF-RP), 3 for the Cards (2B-SS-LF) in addition to being WOW on defense. Should be fun to watch with plenty of great defensive plays and balls in play. Both have weaknesses (bottom 10 - Jays SP, RF on cusp; Cards RF, with CF-DH on the cusp of bottom 10).

Seeing how poor the Jays ranked in RF caught me offguard given how well Springer has been hitting - but his defense in RF is -7.0 runs already, while Santander has been a stone glove too at -2.8 in 15 games. 3 guys in RF have 0.1 WAR while there (Straw, Barger, Lukes) while Santander & Roden are at 0 and Springer at -0.2 (all due to defense). At DH Springer is a +0.7, Santander -0.6. Only Santander & Varsho had trouble hitting as DH's (both sub 71 wRC+) while everyone else is 114 or higher. Springer at 152 as a DH in 23 games. Might be time to just leave him there and say 'screw it'.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#461321) #
Schneider in LF over Roden vs. a RHP? Schneider is trolling us.

It's not like the reverse splits of all these RHP is a surprise. The schedule has played out as expected. It's weird that they called up Roden to sit on the bench when Loperfdio is a better fit as a bench player.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#461323) #

Varsho can't come back quick enough. Both Clase and Straw have turned into pumpkins in his absence.



Mike Green - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#461325) #
Pallante's reverse splits are extreme. He's been an excellent pitcher against LHH over his career and a very poor one against RHH, and this year is no different.

I don't know why one would choose to start Clase over Straw, with both struggling, and Straw the better defender.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#461326) #
The Roden treatment is absolutely absurd, not just because they are putting in every single person they can ahead of him but because they have so many avenues to get him time and they aren't using them at all. Like Ernie Clement is starting every single game against RHP. He has a 50 WRC+ against RHP, he doesn't have to start every game! This is a top-100 prospect who was destroying the minors who plays a position of need for the team and the Jays are treating him he's some useless depth option. It's the most baffling decision I've seen from this team in a long time and I can't even see their justification for it.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#461327) #
The other weird thing about it is that in ST the GM specifically singled out Roden as someone he thought had the potential to have a great year. Roden has since had a 177 wRC+ and a wOBA of .456 in AAA (albeit after a rough introduction to the majors). But now he can barely get any playing time.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#461328) #
Schneider said that Francis will likely make his next start against Phillies. It's not like he just gave up 6 ER in 1 2/3 against them last week. Just embarrassing as a team to keep giving away games. Turnbull and Lauer will piggyback which makes some sense. Scherzer may start in AAA on Friday and need a few rehab outings before being reactivated.
Mike Green - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#461329) #
I have liked Roden for a year and a half, and think that if they give him time this year, he'll be a fine player for the next 5. On the other hand, Lukes has a similar projection to him for 2025 and hasn't been ice cold in the major leagues this year or last. They fill the same niche. And Lukes isn't starting tonight because of Pallante's splits.

Clement's career wRC+ against RHP is 80 and 93 vs. LHP. In other words, he has fairly typical platoon splits and he's facing a RHP with extreme reverse platoon splits. I understand why Schneider did this.

Hopefully tomorrow night with Mikolas, and his typical platoon splits, on the mound, we see Lukes and Roden in the corners. And at some point soon before Santander returns, hopefully Roden feels more comfortable and starts hitting the way he can.
pooks137 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#461330) #
I too wish to see Roden get more playing time.

But at least tonight, the decision to DH Bichette for the half day off really necessitates starting Clement simply for defensive positioning purposes.

One of the only defensive configurations possible that excludes Clement is something like Schneider 2B, Gimenez SS, Barger 3B, Roden/Lukes in LF.

Which is playable but not much of an upgrade at all besides getting Roden's bat in there.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#461331) #
Sounds like Turnbull + Lauer on Wednesday, in some order. Schneider is not the right guy to handle piggybacking because he's very quick to make pitching changes but hopefully those 2 can combine for about 7 innings before having to go to the pen. Six innings might be more realistic with Schneider managing.

Francis getting another start is a joke. I know options are scarce, but at what point does the definition of insanity come into play? He's given up 19 home runs in 60 innings. It's time to try something else.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#461332) #
The problem is not about tonight. Yes reverse splits, Bo DH, etc... it's that the Jays have played 4 straight games against RHP and Roden has started 1. Clase has started 3. Clement has started 4. If they just took one start each from each of those guys, Roden could have started 3 games and maybe built some momentum. It's easy to spread out playing time without Varsho and Santander. The Jays are finding ways not to play Roden.Yes, Clement has been a lifetime 80 WRc+ guys against RHP which is not as awful as 50 but it still means he should be sitting regularly against RHP.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#461333) #
Speaking of giving up HRs, Matz hasn't surrendered one in 37.1IP this year (32:3 K:BB). He ought to be welcomed back to reality this series.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#461334) #
I’m almost certain that Clement is going to end up with over 600 plate appearances this season. They will find a way to get him into the lineup, rightly or wrongly. It’s fine when he’s on a hot streak and there are injuries but if/when they start doing it when everyone is healthy, then it could be an issue. I think with Roden it’s a combination of players performing better than him and maybe some souring on him as a hitter. His underlying stats are awful, and he doesn’t pass the eye test either. Lots of weak contact. If he’s a trade chip next month, which I suspect he is with the emergence of Schreck and Pinango in AAA, then they are better off letting him feast on AAA pitching rather than sit on a big league bench.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#461336) #
Yes he looked awful... In April. He hasn't played enough since coming back for any meaningful data or eye test. Like yesterday he hit a couple of fly balls and one dropped in and he had an almost Hr foul ball against excellent pitchers. That's... Fine but you need way more data. It's crazy to me to seem to completely give up on a player after 92 plate appearances. I mean, Barger was awful for 225 plate appearances last year. It's normal for guys coming up to struggle at first. If the Jays had all these great options, it would be different, but they don't and they still aren't playing Roden.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#461337) #
gotta be honest I think you guys might be looking at this backwards.

The organization and manager love Roden. This is why they made him a fulltime player to start the year. And then he stunk really really badly. Despite the AAA stint he hasn't looked good at all since he came back up either. The last thing they want to do is hurt him, and they probably think they did hurt him by using him every day to start the year. They're also in no rush here. The time is ticking far far far faster on guys like Lukes and Straw than it is on Roden.


And you look at a guy like Schneider (not even a year older than roden!) and he's getting even less playing time than Roden even though he's actually been very productive since coming back up. And forget the pitcher's splits tonight - Schneider doesn't even have any notable career splits anyways.


The team is very deep, and the team is winning. Roden's gonna be a jay for a long time. For me at least I don't see a problem here.

Nigel - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#461340) #
Very odd that you guys are trying to bench the guy who has been the Jays' most valuable position player this year:)
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#461341) #
Ernie as a jay has a 99wrc+ and 4.0war/650. And most of that is as nearly a fulltime player these past 2yrs.

There's a reasonable possibility that our best lineup might see Barger in the OF and Clement and Gimenez both in the lineup.
hypobole - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#461343) #
Is Brendon Little's knuckle curve the majors nastiest pitch?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brendon-littles-big-problem-for-hitters/
Nigel - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#461344) #
That's a very interesting article that hypobole linked. I have been wondering for some time now what would/will happen if hitters just leave their bat on their shoulders against Little. That knucklecurve is so infrequently in the strikezone.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#461345) #
Very odd that you guys are trying to bench the guy who has been the Jays' most valuable position player this year"

He has a 50 WRC+ against RHP this year and career 80. That just isn't someone that should be playing everyday against RHP. I'm not saying don't play him at all but he absolutely should not be default starting against all RHP.
dalimon5 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#461347) #
If you could convince me that Clement would be a perfect platoon player and continue destroying LHP with reduced playing time then I would agree. More likely Clement is a human being and applying stats to project his future performance while removing all the intangibles and other factors isn't realistic in my opinion. He probably contributes more to the team when playing more often and probably hits worse against lefties if he's only deployed as a strict platoon with reduced playing time.

I don't think there's ever been a player who has said that they hit better when playing less and in more favourable splits. Ever. Clement also has the argument that he's great defensively. You also remove any chance of him getting better against RHH when he doesn't get the chance to keep adjusting. Look at Barger vs LHP recently or Kyle Schwarber after working to improve against LHP. It's not as simple as using a split stat and writing a player off forever. Players shouldn't produce in a vacuum.
dalimon5 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#461348) #
*RHH should be RHP
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#461352) #
get your vote in - who lets Berrios go out for the 8th inning?

i vote yes.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#461353) #
oh well. didn't even make it out of the 7th. too bad.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#461354) #
These are the types of games that I miss John Gibbons. Berrios should have at least gotten the next 2 batters (8 and 9). If they wanted a pitching change when the lineup turned over, then fine, but Schneider can be infuriating with how quick his hooks are, especially since the Jays are routinely having 2 bullpen games every 5 days.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#461355) #
Team MVP Kirky up to a 119 wRC+
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#461356) #
love that our chubby little guy is actually playing better now that he's finally getting a fulltime starting gig for the first time.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#461357) #
Big add-on run T8, courtesy of Kirk.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#461358) #
and the quick hooks ends up not working.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#461359) #
Disastrous inning. Despite the walks, it might have been a mistake to pull Little with two out. He had nasty stuff.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#461360) #
Well that was super annoying
Eephus - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#461361) #
My bad everyone. Tuned in right when Yariel entered the game. That might be an all time “Oh good” to “Oh no….”
SK in NJ - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#461362) #
Should have pulled Berrios sooner so they could have used 2 extra relievers in this game. Schneider, again, is not a big league manager. When your starter is rolling on a low pitch count, you adjust. This is year 4 now of this nonsense and he keeps making the same mistakes.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#461363) #
If you think about it, the thing that has bitten Schneider the most as a manager is his quick hook / overmanaging — WC series 2022 (Gausman pull) and WC series 2023 (Berrios pull).
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#461364) #
Sorry SK, I just flat out don’t agree. Yariel left a slider in the middle of the plate. Thats on him. Berrios wasn’t at his best, pulling him was not a problem. I didn’t like Little coming out for a second inning, after the long inning on Friday, but he looked good.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#461365) #
CLASSAY BABAY
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#461366) #
Clase of 2025!
Hodgie - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#461367) #
To be fair, the inning should never have gotten that far. Little had Scott struck out, and instead was squeezed for the lead off walk. HP has been terrible this game. And just as I type this, Clase tied it up.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#461368) #
Tough couple of double plays the Jays hit into in the 7th and 8th. Not a good sign that Gimenez didn't induce a throw over/steal 2nd up 3-0 in the 8th.

Nice swing Clase!
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#461369) #
What a huge hit for Clase! Let's win this now.
Four Seamer - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#461370) #
Schneider manages this bullpen like it’s a Little League team and he’s trying to keep the parents off his back, but Clase bails him out.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#461371) #
I hope to see a flood of posts congratulating the manager for putting Clase in the lineup…
Gerry - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#461372) #
I have to say that home run was unexpected.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#461373) #
redeem yourself, Yariel.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#461374) #
i'll admit that while i was more than fine with Clase getting the start, i was a little annoyed he wasn't pinch hit for there.
scottt - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#461375) #
Berrios wasn't sharp and threw many non-competitive pitches. After 89 pitches and with 4 lefties coming up, he brings Little. Bit of bad luck and a walk that could have been a strike out. It's just baseball.
Eephus - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#461376) #
Easy to say now but I did like the choice to bring Yariel back out for the 9th.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#461377) #
I didn’t have a problem with the Berrios pull. I was a bit nervous about the Little pull, but it wasn’t an easy decision: Contreras hits LHP better than he does RHP, but Little’s stuff is hard for any batter to hit and while he was a bit wild, he wasn’t that wild.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#461378) #
If you haven't seen Denzel Clarke's catch in Anaheim, have a look. That man is insane.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#461379) #
If the lead off hitter was batting when Berrios was pulled, then I would have had no issues with it. However, the #8 hitter was up with 2 outs and a runner on 1st, and the Jays have had bullpen games in 2 of the last 3 days. Plus, Little nearly threw 40 pitches 2 nights ago. Extending Berrios a little bit there would have been completely justifiable, and probably a good idea to (ideally) give the pen one less out to have to deal with.

Regardless, big hit by Clase. Now just score some runs in the 10th.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#461380) #
O Captain my Captain.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#461381) #
Kirk is incredible right now.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#461382) #
Team MVP Kirky up to a 122 wRC+

"As tough an out as there is in the majors right now"
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#461383) #
Get the extra run now.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#461384) #
bunting with risp.

gotta love it.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#461385) #
Clement not cashing in an extra run there might be costly. Hoffman hasn't been great recently and the top of the Cardinals order is up.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#461386) #
It wasn’t the worst play — Gimenez executed. Bad luck that Clement hit it right at Arenado.
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#461387) #
a hit by clement would have cashed run(s) even if the bunt hadn't worked, of course.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#461388) #
Great job by Hoffman getting the initial K. Can he close it out?
uglyone - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#461389) #
the talent bails out the manager in this one.

nice.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#461390) #
What a ballgame. Great bounce-back win. Tremendous 9th inning from Yariel, kudos to him.

Clement just wanted to tack on to his team-worst WPA.
greenfrog - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#461391) #
Blue Jays staying at the W Hotel tonight.
Glevin - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#461392) #
Huge win. This club likes winning games and I'm here for it.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#461393) #
Great win. Unlikely hero in Clase, and big night for Kirk.
Eephus - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#461394) #
They bent but didn’t break. Great win for the Bluebirds.

Hoffman has been rather unpredictable but it seems he’s been absolute money in extra innings with the zombie runner on base.
92-93 - Monday, June 09 2025 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#461395) #
Before tonight's game, Hoffman with:

Kirky behind the dish - 3.63ERA, .549 opponent OPS (65PA)
Heiny behind the dish - 8.68ERA, .974 opponent OPS (43PA)
scottt - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 05:47 AM EDT (#461396) #
A couple of big blows have a huge effect on a reliever. 
Kirk has 208 PA and Heineman has 59, but Kirk is often lifted for a pitch runner and Heineman catches Hoffman almost as much as Kirk.
scottt - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 05:59 AM EDT (#461397) #
Clase has some pop but his trademark is the speed.
The bunt single in the 7th was nice.
Then Clase had second stolen but Bichette didn't take a pitch and hit the ball at first.
Clase has so much speed that he doesn't have to study the pitcher and time him.
It was pretty clear that he was going to challenge a pitcher who is slow to the plate and a catcher who is mostly a DH.
If Bichette just takes a pitch there and Clase is on second with none out he probably scores in that inning.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#461398) #
Hoffman has pitched better with Kirk catching, but the Blue Jay staff as a whole has been better with Heineman:
Heineman- 147 innings, 3.62 ERA, 45/162 W/K and a .213/.282/.361 slash
Kirk- 417 innings, 4.06 ERA, 141/408 W/K and a .241/.309/.417 slash

Heineman has thrown 7 of 12 runners attempting to steal, Kirk has thrown out 10 of 39. FWIW, Heineman has caught 891 innings in his career and has thrown out just over 1/3 of prospective thieves. This year is exceptional for him in the throwing department as well as the batting one.

Both catchers have been great this year- the tandem has been competing with Cal Raleigh for the best catching in baseball.

electric carrot - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#461399) #
Jays continue to feast on these triple A teams.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#461400) #
Interestingly, there are wide disparities in how Fangraphs and BRef value catcher defense. Fangraphs loves Kirk (2.2 WAR) and Moreno (2.1 WAR) but is less enthused about Jansen (0.6 WAR). On BRef, the WAR totals for the three players are 1.3, 0.7 and 1.1, respectively.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#461401) #
Yep Mike, that's why I looked it up and mentioned it. In the postgame Barker was going on about how Heineman came into the game and how much better the pitchers' secondary stuff looks with him in the game.

It's funny - as much as we all love Kirk, it feels like the only one who truly stuck with his bat as being above average was the projections systems. We were all happy with the average bat/excellent receiver, but there may still be more in there. If the ASG was today, MVP Kirky should be Raleigh's backup for the AL.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#461402) #
the Blue Jay staff as a whole has been better with Heineman

My first thought - who's been catching Bowden Francis?

Mostly Kirk - 51 IP of the 60.1 Francis has thrown, leaving just 9.1 for Heineman.
Glevin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#461403) #
"the Blue Jay staff as a whole has been better with Heineman

My first thought - who's been catching Bowden Francis?

Mostly Kirk - 51 IP of the 60.1 Francis has thrown, leaving just 9.1 for Heineman."

My first thought as well. Gap between OK starters and 4/5 guys so enormous that that would explain all the difference. Thanks for checking so I don't have to!
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#461405) #
It's not quality of the pitchers that each has caught. Kirk has caught a much higher percentage of his innings from the big three starters, while Heineman caught all of Easton Lucas' innings. All of Gausman, Bassitt and Berrios have better numbers this year with Heineman behind the plate than Kirk.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#461406) #
Pretty sure the different valuations for catchers are almost entirely framing. It seems to be highly valued by FG and ignored by BRef. Kirk and Moreno are 2 of the 3 best framers, while Jansen is a negative.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#461407) #
Interesting. Siddall and Joseph, a couple of old catchers, have each gone on a rant at various points this season about pitch selection. As I recall, neither mentioned Kirk by name at the time, but he was the catcher involved. (It's true that Gausman has praised Kirk's pitch selection, but Gausman only has two and a half pitches, so I'm not sure what that's worth.)
Gerry - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#461408) #
Jose Urena has been DFA'd by the Dodgers so the Jays could try to get him back.
pooks137 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#461409) #
Interesting. Siddall and Joseph, a couple of old catchers, have each gone on a rant at various points this season about pitch selection.

Joseph himself was fairly charitable and humble when discussing catcher pitch selection during the Top of the 10th with Clement at the plate & runners on.

Caleb openly mused that he was sometimes unsure himself behind the plate re: pitch selection when you had a hitter like Clement who was a notorious fastball hitter against the Cards reliever who had already hung a go-ahead breaking ball to Kirk.

Do you go with your own strength? Avoid the batter's strength? Go with your second pitch to exploit a batter's weakness? Read bats and adjust in-game? Stick with the scouting report? Risk throwing a pitch that you've already struggled with in game? Are you confident that your pitcher can locate the pitch as needed?

Joseph admitted that he struggled with some of these "50/50 calls" as a MLB catcher.

I think pitch selection critique often suffers from bias of knowing the end result. And sometimes makes it seem like a simple binary decision when there's a lot of moving parts that factor in as well for a decision that has to be made with pitch clock pressure & adrenaline flowing.

pooks137 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#461410) #
Jose Urena has been DFA'd by the Dodgers so the Jays could try to get him back.

The Jays were reticent to actually to actually stretch Urena out as a starter when they had him.

They also don't really have any bullpen spots to carry another tweener-type like they already are with Lauer & Turnbull (and possibly soon Francis).

They also seem reticent to send down Braydon Fisher because of his early success, even after his disastrous 5 run opener performance (where he seems to recovered since).

I wouldn't be opposed to more starter depth by picking up Urena again, but it only really makes sense if Bowden is optioned down at the same time (which becomes more difficult with the coaches' vote of confidence publicly lately).

The Jays may also need future roster spots for Sandlin & Scherzer without obvious demotions now that Schulz has been dispatched.

It's hard to see space on the roster for Urena unless he's willing to go to Buffalo first.

If they somehow did manage to roster Francis/Urena/Lauer/Turnbull, the actual lineup of medium & high leverage one-inning types gets pretty short with Fisher down, meaning Turnbull & Urena types could be forced into higher leverage roles.

Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#461412) #
Pooks - I agree with that comment about after the fact bias. I think Joseph would differentiate between individual pitch selection and sequencing/course of conduct pitch selection. After Francis’ previous start Joseph (or was it Siddall?) went on a very interesting critique of his outing from a pitch selection perspective (his point being that almost every pitch was out over the plate and they needed to call some FBs on the inner half and even off the plate inside).
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#461413) #
Implying Fisher only had early success isn't really fair. I'd say he's been quite good for a middle reliever except for the one game he was asked to open.

Honestly, I feel like Kirk tips pitches with his set up/positioning... which can give away both location and pitch type. It's not as noticeable as last year but it still happens.

It's nice to see he's stopped collapsing his back leg at the plate, which has led to this offensive resurgence.
pooks137 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#461414) #
Fisher has done well. But he's the most precarious spot in the bullpen at present because he has the least seniority and is one of the few relievers left with options (minus Little & Fluharty who are more established, and Bowden Francis who they are stubbornly supporting).
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#461415) #
Jim Bowden’s list of possible SP trade targets for Toronto (per The Athletic):

“Walker Buehler, Red Sox; Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks; Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks; Zach Eflin, Orioles; Andrew Heaney, Pirates; Nick Martinez, Reds; Zack Littell, Rays”

His preferred trade target on that list is Merrill Kelly.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#461416) #
Kelly and Martinez seem like very solid vet options.

Do we know if there's a reason for Gallen's struggles this Year? or is this just a continuation of a decline that started last year? are there injury troubles there?
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#461417) #
What the Jays do with Swanson is going to be very telling. To me, he's an easy DFA. The salary isn't much and he's clearly not one of the best relievers they can actually roster at this point. If they send Fisher down in the hopes that Swanson rights himself, then I think that would be a mistake that will likely cost them. Swanson hasn't looked good since 2023, and that was two years ago now, and relievers are volatile by nature so past success doesn't really mean much if the stuff isn't there anymore. The Jays are typically very loyal to veterans, especially those who have succeeded with them in the past, so curious to see how they handle this. Fisher is deserving of a bullpen spot at this point.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#461418) #
also depends on what Yimi's injury is.

we have probably what, 5 guys who i'd say we're very comfortable with at the moment:

Hoffman
Garcia
Little
Rodrigues
Fluharty

then 3 borderline guys who have been very impressive:

Fisher
Sandlin
Schultz

Of these 3, I see legit promise in Fisher and Sandlin's resumes and not so much in Schultz' resume.

we have 2 vets who seem a bit iffy

- Green has been just ok, but is very expensive, so likely sticks
- Swanson is who knows what at this point.

then of course we have 3 erstwhile SP:

- Lauer is needed in the rotation for now
- Francis has been so terrible i wouldn't be using him in the pen either
- Turnbull i don't really have much hope for


So yeah if we're healthy at the moment my 8 are:

Hoffman
Garcia
Little
Rodriguez
Fluharty
Fisher
Sandlin
Green

but tbh i wouldn't have a huge problem with Fisher getting optioned at some point to give Swanson a chance to show he can help, even though I'm skeptical he can.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#461420) #
just for fun here's how our pitchers have done the past 1 calendar year:


SP Gausman 31gms, 6.1ip/gm, 95era-, 92fip-, 103xfip-, 3.0war32
SP Bassitt 31gms, 5.5ip/gm, 102era-, 95fip-, 96xfip-, 2.1war32
SP Berrios 33gms, 5.9ip/gm, 97era-, 115fip-, 104xfip-, 2.0war32
SP Scherzer 10gms, 4.6ip/gm, 101era-, 112fip-, 101xfip-, 1.6war32
SP Francis 34gms, 4.3ip/gm, 95era-, 126fip-, 110xfip-, 1.3war32

SP Lauer 8gms, 3.3ip/gm, 53era-, 95fip-, 108xfip-, 1.4war32
SP Turnbull 4gms, 2.5ip/gm, 65era-, 166fip-, 151xfip-, 0.0war32
SP Lucas 10gms, 3.0ip/gm, 169era-, 141fip-, 121xfip-, -1.3war32




RP Hoffman 70gms, 1.0ip/gm, 101era-, 83fip-, 64xfip-, 0.5war65
RP Little 75gms, 0.9ip/gm, 65era-, 82fip-, 76xfip-, 0.7war65
RP Fluharty 28gms, 1.0ip/gm, 91era-, 61fip-, 90xfip-, 0.8war65
RP Rodrigues 43gms, 2.4ip/gm, 103era-, 106fip-, 104xfip-, 0.6war65
RP Green 69gms, 1.0ip/gm, 89era-, 111fip-, 105xfip-, 0.3war65
RP Swanson 32gms, 0.9ip/gm, 77era-, 140fip-, 104xfip-, 0.0war65
RP Garcia 36gms, 1.0ip/gm, 109era-, 102fip-, 90xfip-, -0.1war65
RP Sandlin 48gms, 0.8ip/gm, 104era-, 148fip-, 102xfip-, -1.1war65

RP Fisher 11gms, 1.2ip/gm, 83era-, 68fip-, 49xfip-, 1.5war65
RP Schultz 8gms, 2.2ip/gm, 77era-, 84fip-, 85xfip-, 0.2war65
RP Barnes 50gms, 1.1ip/gm, 123era-, 111fip-, 105xfip-, -0.4war65
RP Tate 21gms, 1.1ip/gm, 166era-, 108fip-, 123xfip-, -0.7war65



I sometimes forget how bad Yimi was after we traded him last year, and how iffy he was for us before last year. And he's 35, and he;s injured.....so maybe i'm putting a bit too much faith in him as a dependable topend guy. But maybe not.

And Sandlin has definitely looked good this year, and has a decent track record, but boy was he terrible last year, and he's injured.....so yeah, maybe not someone we should count on just yet.

I'd probably try to keep as many of these arms in the org as possible, including Swanson.

Don't care about the likes of Turnbull Lucas Barnes Tate of course tho.
pooks137 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#461421) #
I'd be very surprised if the Jays cut Swanson anytime soon.

The Jays, as mentioned, tend to be very loyal to in-house veterans.

Swanson's 2024 stats are muddied by his awful April & May numbers before being sent down. He returned to being effective with his second half splits after being called back up in July to play out the season.

He's also only played a few games since his two month long rehab to start the year.

Atkins & co. tend to prefer to preserve as many assets as possible all else.

I suspect it's Fisher going down next time a spot is needed. I would guess they'd even cut Turnbull before Swanson at present.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#461422) #
I've heard a lot about Francis' HR problem and his BABIP returning to average, but for me, the root of his problem is his loss of control. His walk rate has doubled, and his control within the zone is very poor. His fastball command is way off, particularly early in the game.

If they are going to give him another start, I hope he does more pitching backward at least at the outset. To my eye, he had more control of his curveball than his fastball last time out. Watching him throw 4 straight fastballs way out of the zone leading off the game to Bryson Stott (with Turner, Harper and Schwarber following) two starts ago was very painful. Incidentally, the Phils need to acquire a Carney, a Pearson or a King to follow Turner and Harper in the batting order, if they wish to show whose side they are on in the trade dispute.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#461426) #
I agree that Francis' control is a big part of the problem. I've also wondered if he isn't tipping pitches but in a slightly different sense. When I watch him this year he seems to be throwing very few FBs down in the zone and very few splitters in the zone. As a consequence, it feels like a hitter can say if its down its a splitter and likely a ball and it its up its a FB. Last year I was struck by how many more splitters were ending up in the zone. His last couple of starts he's thrown some pretty good splitters that hitters have just not swung at.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#461427) #
Clement at 1B batting 6th vs. a RHP is hilarious.

They should give Roden some work there in the minors when he’s sent down.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#461429) #
Easton Lucas was put on the 7-day IL in Buffalo. Macko and Schultz are now the only pitchers on the 40-man in the minors not on the IL or rehabbing.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#461430) #
Lukes scratched with neck discomfort. Straw now in at CF with Clase moving to LF.
Glevin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#461431) #
Really weird time to give Vlad off day. Jays are off Thursday and again Monday. Lukes a bit banged up so Straw is playing.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#461432) #
He hasn't done much in June and has been running around a lot so whatever. Maybe they'll DH him tomorrow and try to get him off his feet for a nice little stretch.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#461433) #
Kirk can't make pitchers hit their spots. All down to individual execution.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#461434) #
Barger’s avg exit velocity going down as his batting avg goes up!
92-93 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#461435) #
Enormous swing from Team MVP Kirky there. Green is the only fully fresh arm in the bullpen.

Also a great swing from Bo there that would've been a HR in 8 parks. Bring that swing to Yankee Stadium please.
Glevin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#461436) #
The obsessive righty/lefty thing is so silly and Schneider always manages like this. Fluharty has been a much better pitcher than Green who has been their worst reliever.
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#461437) #
Might as well have left Bassitt in.
Cracka - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#461438) #
Chad Green now has given up more HR (8) than any reliever in baseball. Hoffman is 2nd with 7th... and he's now warming up for the 4th time in 5 days.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#461439) #
Broken record alert: John Schneider is still not a big league manager. He’s the only manager in baseball that hates when a starter goes deep into a game with a low pitch count.

Green being viewed as a high leverage reliever is a real problem.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#461440) #
So many weak contact hits tonight. But Gimenez has had a great night and nothing cheap about his ABs.
Cracka - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#461441) #
I'm Sorry.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#461442) #
Some interesting bullpen management there:(
92-93 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#461443) #
Classic slave-to-the-save situation.
Glevin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#461444) #
That was horribly managed bullpen but pulled it out anyway!
Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#461445) #
Proven Closer love:(
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#461446) #
Glad the Jays won, but a sick part of me likes that both times Schneider made a weird, unnecessary pitching change, the very next pitch was hit out. 
Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#461447) #
That was such a weirdly managed game. Like Schneider was on acid. All’s well that ends well!
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#461448) #
Schneider must get extra bonus money every time he makes a pitching change. I've never seen someone so giddy to use relievers unnecessarily.

Oh well, poorly managed game, but a win is a win. With tomorrow's game looking iffy from a pitching standpoint, it was good to get the first 2 here. Tomorrow would be found money.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#461449) #
Green is not really viewed as a high-leverage reliever though. He came into a 4-run lead, and was basically the only guy available.

Bassitt should be starting the 8th at 89 pitches with a 4 run lead, the bullpen exhausted, and an extra off day coming.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#461450) #
I’m not even sure it was as badly managed - I just can’t really understand the thinking one way or the other. Weird.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#461451) #
Sorry, Bassitt has two extra days coming - he pitches next Tuesday if they stay on rotation.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#461452) #
I'm sure Hoffman said he was fine to pitch 4 times in 5 days, but I'd love to know why anyone on the medical staff or the pitching coaches would allow it. Nothing good can come from it.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#461453) #
This is actually the 3rd time Hoffman has pitched 4 times in 5 days this season. The Jays either know what they are doing or are being incredibly reckless.
scottt - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#461454) #
That was a weird one.
Loads of offense. It seems like there were no weak spots in the lineup.
Defense was good as usual.
If our pitching wasn't great it was still better than the other team's.
It seems like a feel bad win with players having long faces, but they were almost crying in the other dugout. It's all relative.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 10 2025 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#461455) #
The Jays now have the 3rd best record in the AL (only behind DET and NYY). This season hasn’t always felt like it, but a combination of a weaker AL and the Jays going on a legitimate (and fun) run since May has helped turn this season around.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#461458) #
A quick glance at Modern Managerial Practice reminds us that everybody in the modern world uses at least three relief pitchers in each and every game. There are no exceptions. This year's Jays are pretty close to the MLB average in relievers used. Which is interesting to me, because in 2023 and 2024 the Blue Jays were indeed going to the bullpen more often than almost everyone. This year, they're much closer to the middle of the pack.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#461459) #
Bassitt should be starting the 8th at 89 pitches with a 4 run lead, the bullpen exhausted, and an extra off day coming.

In a perfect world, maybe! I suspect that Schneider's number one priority with his pitching staff is based on his knowledge that absolutely everything depends on Berrios, Gausman, and Bassitt feeling strong and healthy. So he's going to manage those guys as if they're made of glass. Everyone and everything else is negotiable.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#461460) #
Reports say Will Robertson is headed to the major leagues. I assume Lukes is going to the IL.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#461461) #
It's not how many pitchers Schneider uses it's how he uses them for me.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#461462) #
Magpie - I agree with you there. The big 3 are critical for the Jays, they really can't afford to have any of them go down. At least not until someone else comes back (Scherzer or Manoah) or for Francis to pitch like he did last year. Get any of that happening and you can then push the big 3 a bit more.
  • Berrios: 14 games, 21-27 batters faced, 82-95 pitches, 5-7 IP. Mr. Consistent.
  • Bassitt: 14 games, 20-29 batters faced, 82-106 pitches, yesterday was 29 faced, 4-7 IP (just once at 4, twice at 7)
  • Gausman: 13 starts, 16-29 batters faced, 71-104 pitches, 2 2/3 to 8 IP. Twice under 5 IP.
  • Francis: 13 starts, 15-27 batters faced, 58-96 pitches, 1 2/3 to 6 2/3 IP, least dependable of the batch.
Interesting that no one has faced 30 batters yet. 3 times through the order plus up to 2 more - probably to finish an inning and that's it. Seems the 3 times through is a bigger factor than pitch count.
Glevin - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#461464) #
I don't mind being a bit gentle with the 3 starters. The team needs them. For me, it's the reflexive right/left thing he does both with pitching and hitting. Fluharty has been a lot better than Green and neither have huge splits. Green is also extremely HR prone and Fluarty has only given up 1.. Fluharty should have been left in. Hoffman should not have been available either. You're up 10-6, let Green get through the inning. Saves don't matter! I'd rather save Hoffman for today than pad his stats (and there is no more padded stat than that). And for the record, these were decisions that I (and I think many) didn't understand at the time, not hindsight.

Happy for Robertson. He deserves the callup and I love when long-term minor leaguers get a shot. He has found a different level of power this year so hopefully that shows in the majors too.

This team is so fun now because apart from Kirk, it seems like a different guy every night. Last night it was Gimenez, the night before Clase was the hero, last week Barger, Springer, Bo, Vlad, etc...And none of this feels unsustainable. There isn't anyone having a season that feels like it's going to regress (Apart from Heinemann). I mean, Springer might wear down a bit and Barger slow down some but Santander is almost certainly going to get much better, hopefully Varsho will be healthier, I expect Vladdy to take off at some point, etc...and there is good minor league depth at most positions. This team, apart from #4/5 starters is genuinely good.

I am worried about the HRs allowed by Hoffman though. Last 2 years, he gave up 9 HRs in like 120 IP. He's given up 8 in 30 this year. It feels fluky but he is giving up a ton of very hard contact.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#461465) #
I didn’t mind the Bassitt pull, because I prefer giving Fluharty a clean inning and it makes sense to me to prefer Fluharty to Green in that spot.

Re: Hoffman, agree it sucks but that’s because Greenwas terrible. Unless you’re on here advocating for Swanson, I don’t see what the alternative was. I see this as Green sucking and forcing a tough decision. BTW, Hoffman threw 2 pitches, so at least that’s about as light a load as possible.

I find the Toronto sports fan mentality of focussing on the coaches and GMs to be profoundly weird. Green got 3 outs and gave up 4 hits and 3 runs. He sucked. He was challenged to protect a 4 run lead! That’s on Green, IMV. And if you think putting Green in that slot is on the manager, you’re saying Green isn’t a major league pitcher.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#461468) #
Chad Green has been less effective than Bowden Francis this year, once you account for the difference in roles and pure luck. Actually, Francis has been the better pitcher each of the last 3 years but this year the bar is very low.

The Blue Jay pitchers in order of effectiveness in 2025 and taking into account role: Fluharty, (gap) Little, Bassitt, Gausman, Lauer, Fisher, Hoffman, Berrios, Rodriguez, Yimi, (huge gap), Francis, Green. The first 10 have been effective enough to be useful.

Fluharty's ERA is solely the result of pitchers following him being much, much less effective than he has been. Opponents are hitting .146/.224/.219 off him; he's benefitted from a small amount of luck in getting that good a line, but he has dominated. He has had no platoon splits whatsoever.

Brendon Little incidentally has reverse platoon splits.

It seems to me that the key for optimizing bullpen usage is to get Fluharty and Little into high leverage roles rather than platoon roles.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#461469) #
Also, on the Bassitt piece, in case you weren’t watching the broadcast, Bassitt told Walker being on the 3rd base rubber was making him feel uncomfortable and was making his hip sore. He was worried about getting hurt. That’s why they moved him in his last start. To me, when your 36-YO starter tells you they’re sore and feel like they might get hurt, that’s a situation where babying makes sense. 7 innings and a four run lead should be enough of an effort under those circumstances
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#461470) #
Sorry - 3rd base side of the rubber.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#461471) #
Hopefully Robertson gets to play today. He was born in Missouri.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#461472) #
I don’t mind the manager distributing the bullpen load, including in high-leverage situations, if it keeps the bullpen healthy for the stretch run and postseason.

For a while Schneider was obsessed with using Hoffman and Yimi in seemingly every high-leverage situation. Yimi is now injured and Hoffman looks less dominant. The risk of overuse needs to be an important consideration (Schneider actually acknowledged this a while back; he just has trouble giving effect to this consideration in game situations).
hypobole - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#461473) #
Don't disagree with the negativity, but very few positive comments after the game for a team that has won 11 of their last 13. 6-1 at home, 5-1 on the road. Offence top 10 at FG, 107 wRC+, combined with what FG considers the best defence in baseball places Jays 5th overall with 12.4 WAR on the position side.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#461474) #
I was fine with the Bassitt pull. After that, I thought that things got weird but as I posted last night I’m not really sure the decisions were wrong (they won after all:)). Part of the problem is that the pen has a one inning reliever in Swanson who the manager doesn’t trust (rightly). Either Swanson has to be used to help the leverage guys or he needs to be replaced with a multi inning arm.

Lots of room for optimism. They’ve been beating good teams recently after getting crushed by above 500 teams early on and Vladdy has been mediocre to poor recently so his bat coming back would offset others as they cool down. Gimenez had a very promising night too.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#461475) #
On April 29th, through the 1st 29 games this year, the Jays had hit 16 HR's. That was 29th in the league, 7 back of the 28th place 23 HR's.  In the 38 games since, Jays have hit 53, 5th best in baseball.. The most any team has hit since April 29th is 56. 
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#461476) #
Chad Green has been less effective than Bowden Francis this year, once you account for the difference in roles and pure luck.

That does place quite a bit of weight on the different roles. Francis has allowed more Hits, Walks, HRs per 9 IP while striking out fewer hitters and benefitting from a better opposition BABiP. But indeed, their roles are very different.

Still, Green was recently the team's best relief pitcher and last year wasn't all that long ago. (It's a very, very low bar - there are literally no other candidates.) Whereas Francis is a guy who got insanely and unreasonably lucky for two months. So unless Francis goes down to the crossroads and falls down upon his knees, I think there's a higher likelihood of Green recovering his 2024 type of form.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#461477) #
There were many complaints about the offence early in the year. Not many people noticed that the offence as a whole had suffered from bad luck, as well as underperforming. With Santander's injury and Kirk's resurgence and better luck, the offence is quite good, but in the form of a long sequence offence. The power core is diffuse but consistent, and everyone does something.
pooks137 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#461478) #
To me, when your 36-YO starter tells you they’re sore and feel like they might get hurt, that’s a situation where babying makes sense. 7 innings and a four run lead should be enough of an effort under those circumstances

In the post-game scrum, Bassitt used the fact that he's pitched 7 innings twice since moving from the 3rd to 1st side of the rubber, when he didn't make it out of the 7th in any of his starts prior to the move, as evidence that the decision was effective and already the right one.

So he couldn't have been too worried about overuse, fatigue or the potential for an ongoing sore hip.

Pure speculation, but Bassitt seems pretty pigheaded. They mentioned on the broadcast a few starts back that Walker wanted him to give control of pitch selection entirely over to his catcher so he could keep a clear head and focus solely on execution.

That changed only lasted one start IIRC. During this game, he used both disengagements sequentially one after another with runners on before Arenado's single to make it 4-1. I've never seen a pitcher do that before. It seemed purely due to pitch clock management and pitch selection issues.

What I'm implying is that I'm not a true believer that the 3rd base side of the rubber was actually hurting his hips. Or if it was, that he could be embellishing it.

The way it has been discussed publicly is that Bassitt wanted to make the change and essentially set a meeting with the pitching coaches to advocate for it point-by-point PowerPoint style.

I really wouldn't put it passed him that he might have mentioned the hip soreness simply because he thought it would force Walker's hand and he would end up getting his way.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#461479) #
Green and Francis have very similar lines over the 2023-4 period, except that Francis pitched twice as many innings and had a much better ERA. Green threw 65.1 innings- walked 18 struck out 62 and gave up 9 homers. Francis threw 139.3 innings- walked 30, struck out 127 and gave up 22 homers.

Francis' fastball velo in the bullpen was 94.4. Green's is currently 95. They both might need to kneel down on the crossroads.
scottt - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#461480) #
On the plus side. If Robertson's family make the trip for nothing, it won't be a long trip and Philadelphia isn't that far away.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#461481) #
139.3 innings? Argh. 140.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#461482) #
139.3 innings? Argh. 140.

Oh, I hate when that happens.

An especially irritating curse of the Excel spreadsheet are all those .7 innings pitched. Just trying to derive a decent sum from a column full of partial IP... I don't want to talk about it.

I want to return to our regularly scheduled programming, which consists mostly of me jeering at Bowden Francis (not that I'm unconcerned about Chad Green, who used to strike out guys once upon a time.) I say it yet again - opposing hitters went 17 for 136 on their BallsInPlay against Francis over those nine starts after he returned to the rotation in early August, and 17 divided by 136 is .125. Which is how I spell F-L-U-K-E, and if I could make those letters flash and vibrate, I surely would.

Up to that point in the season, they'd gone 57 for 241 on their BallsInPlay, and that's still a very nifty .237 on the BallsInPlay against him. I expect a flyball pitcher to have a better opposition BABiP than the average guy, but .237 is already pushing your luck. I'm not a believer. Come on, dude. I bring the mockery. Prove me wrong!
scottt - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#461483) #
Arenado guessed fastball on the first pitch and homered off a 95-mph fastball that was just over the strike zone.
It was a well executed pitch but maybe a poor choice.
The next hitter looked at a slider for a strike and single on a fastball.
That one was not well located.
Pages looked at a slider for a strike and flied out on a second slider.

Green got the 9th hitter to fly out on 2 fastballs down the middle.
Then the lead off hitter got to first on an infield ground ball down the middle. Gimenez makes that play most of the time but the ball had a lot of spins and Winn is a very fast runner.
Herrera singled on a 2-0 fastball that got too much of the plate.
Green got Pozzo who was pinch-hitting to strike out by throwing basically nothing over the plate. Kirk was setting up outside the plate and Pozzo kept reaching.
It took 1 fastball and 5 sliders.
That's when the closer took over.

Contreras homered on a 95mph fastball down the middle.
That was not a good pitch. Maybe Hoffman felt like he was throwing harder?
The next guy grounded out on a splitter.

Hoffman threw 2 pitches.

Often we see relievers with high heat from other teams throwing a lot of off-speed stuff.I expect the highest leverage relievers to be able to throw fastballs when facing the bottom of the lineup.
Walks are worse.

All considered, Green should have been able to finish the game but Hoffman was warmed up at this point so throwing those 2 pitches don't change much.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#461484) #
All-righty lineup today with Heiny catching and Kirk at DH.

Lots of available arms today, with Hoffman being the only one who's down. Swanson could use some work, and hopefully Yariel gets a save opportunity.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#461485) #
Mike I'd say power might actually be turning out to be a strength of this lineup, not a weakness.

TOT: .146iso (#14)
APR: .110iso (#29)
MAY: .172iso (#6)
JUN: .182iso (#6)


And that's with the two proven big power bats Vladdy and Santander not showing any power at all yet - Vlad .146, Santander .125.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#461486) #
With Santander's injury and Kirk's resurgence and better luck, the offence is quite good, but in the form of a long sequence offence.

It's been a little weird, a little hard to get a handle on what they are. They hit just 19 HRs in their first 30 games, which was so sad that Schneider, in his desperation, started bunting literally twice as often as he'd ever had them bunt before. But they've hit 50 in the 37 games since, and the Yankees are the only AL team significantly above that clip. Stranger still - most of this has been happening with Santander and Varsho - who don't really do anything aside from hitting homers - on the shelf. Who knows. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#461487) #
I'm hoping the Jays seriously think about letting Green go if he doesn't get better very soon. Last year he was critical in the closer role, but this year he is giving up 3.3 more H/9, 1.1 HR/9, while his BB/9 and K/9 are almost identical to last year (both up by 0.1). He is owed $10.5 mil this year then is a free agent. Maybe some other club with a desperately weak pen would like him, maybe not. But to count on a 34 year old to get back to his old form is foolish at best. I'd trust anyone else in the pen over him right now including recently demoted Schultz and released Urena.

Overall though, I'm pretty happy as a fan. This team is doing well, just 4 games back of the Yankees and 3rd best record in the AL. Seeing Baltimore, everyone's choice of 'how to run a team' the past few years despite them doing exactly what the Jays did (win in regular season, then flop in playoffs), go to the basement is fun too (down to 2.7% odds of playoffs). Jays now at 60.8% shot at playoffs (FG), best of any non-division leader in the AL (Phillies and Giants higher odds for 2nd place teams in the NL).
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#461488) #
Hypobole - I agree. This is the best ball the team has played in at least two years. It’s the most fun I’ve had since 2021. If we can’t enjoy the good times, what are we even doing?
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#461489) #
Like everyone else, I’ve been riding the rollercoaster that is the 2025 season. But I did predict 89 wins for the team and they’re currently on pace for…89 wins. Maybe that will be the net result when all is said and done.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#461490) #
I didn't feel much negativity upthread. When things are going well, people come out and nitpick the manager's decisions because it feels like the little decisions matter so much. That's what baseball fans are supposed to do when they are engaged.
Hodgie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#461491) #
Fangraphs has another article on a Jays reliever, this time Braydon Fisher.

It must be somewhat discombobulating to an MLB manager (sorry Sk, that is what he is by title) to know all your expected high-leverage "proven" vets are figuratively and/or literally broken, while at the same time trying to understand that you now need to increasingly rely on things called a Little, and a Fluharty, and a Fisher. At least he only has 3/5 of a rotation he can rely on as well.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#461492) #
Jays got off to a solid start this year...12-8 in their first 20gms with a +6 run differential (+0.3 runs per game) so it was pretty deserved.

but then they had that horrific 9gm stretch where they went 1-8 with an unbelievable -41 run differential (-4.6 runs per game). A pretty spectactular implosion tbh.

But they've been back on track since then, earning a 24-14 record with a +36 run differential (+0.9 runs per game).


I would never just ignore a bad stretch like that, but there's some chance that stretch was a bit of a blip.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#461493) #
I'm a very poor excuse for a fan, because I'm a terrible nitpicker. :)  Trees are mostly a blur to me, so i concentrate on the forest. 
Gerry - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#461494) #
I just saw a photo of Robertson signing his major league contract. He does have some big guns on him.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#461495) #
Gimenez has a 150wrc+ in 25pa since his return. No crazy babip (.300) or power (.182iso), just solid hitting.
Super Bluto - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#461496) #
I think we can all agree that the Jays ought to call up a third catcher so that Kirk and Heineman can play in the same games without concern for a backup.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#461497) #
Or they can just play in the same game without concern about losing your DH in case of emergency.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#461498) #
Wow, no complaints yet about the bunt in the 4th inning? Busy day at work eh.
Eephus - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#461499) #
That’s the kind of inning where bunting is actually quite fun to watch.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#461500) #
I'm only following this on Gameday. Did he really sacrifice or was it a bunt for a base hit scored as a sacrifice? Bold move to sacrifice as the visitor in a tie game in the 4th:)
earlweaverfan - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#461501) #
Would anyone here have asked Heineman to sac bunt in this past inning?
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#461502) #
Nigel - bunting all the way. Squared on the first two pitches.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#461505) #
Bold move. You are living right when that all works out. With the number of flares that have dropped in this series, the baseball Gods have been smiling on the Jays. Long may it continue!
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#461506) #
Bunting… well, I do think you want to do it often enough that the opposition knows it’s in your bag and they have to defend against it. And think it’s useful as a kind of team- building exercise. We all in this together, we sacrifice ourselves for the good of the team.

But home runs are better!
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#461507) #
Heiny squared to bunt on a 2-0 pitch, no less. Bo followed with a deep sac fly.

Excellent start from Lauer.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#461508) #
Or we can be happy with what we’re getting and not try to always ask for more!
I think a big reason why they’re successful is the usage pattern.


Nice outing from Lauer, IMO. I’m surprised they let him go this long. Is he the defacto #4 now? And does that mean Turnbull is the mop up/long reliever?
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#461509) #
Great work from Lauer and a big thumbs up for using Fisher in that situation.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#461510) #
would be frustrating if Turnbull costs us a sweep here.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#461512) #
Bunting in the 4th and 8th but not in the 7th? This is not a criticism (before the blowback happens:)) but does anyone understand the "when" of the Jays current interest in bunting? Genuine question.
Glevin - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#461513) #
Was hoping for Robertson PH there for Clase with his family in attendance. Maybe Schneider can get him in 9th.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#461515) #
Well , in the seventh you would be asking your five hitter who already had three hits to drop one down. It does seem like it’s going to be 8-9 hitters who get to give themselves up.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#461516) #
They didn't bunt in the 7th because Kirk was on 2nd. I still would've bunted, just to get him to 3rd/off the bases and stay out of the double play. Much better spot for a bunt than the 4th.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#461517) #
I'll just say that I think I would have ordered the likelihood of bunting as the 7th, 8th and 4th. The 7th because it gets Kirk to 3rd with only one out and Clement against a tough RH is a tough match up. Its definitely interesting.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#461519) #
It does seem like it’s going to be 8-9 hitters who get to give themselves up.

They're now up to 16 sac hits this season - they had just 4 in Schneider's first full season as the manager - and none of them have come from the top five guys in the batting order. It's been the 6 hitter twice (Clement, Gimenez), the 7 hitter four times (Lukes twice, Wagner, Straw), the 8 hitter four times (Clement twice, Straw twice), and the nine hitter six times (Straw twice, Lukes twice, Clase, Heineman.)
lexomatic - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#461520) #
And pulling the effective pitcher leads to tying run at bat.Good thigbit ended okay.

Fwiw looking at May1- now stats. 4 Jays in top 26 FG war(Guerrero is 26, Kirk 5, Barger 10, Clement 14!) Gausmann with 7 stats at previous ace level 9-1 k/bb 9.5 k/9 <3 fip & xfip 330 era. Was interesting.
Best position player team WAR in AL by a LOT 1.5 wins, difference between 2&3 also 1.5 wins so really hitting solidly & leading defense. Pitching seems solid except for Francis Hoffman & Garcia. Some love babips
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#461521) #
I have more faith in Yariel than Hoffman right now.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#461522) #
Turnbull seemed OK. His fastball seems to be the problem. He got around that by leaving it outside the zone but close to the edges. Secondary stuff seemed Ok. I didn’t mind pulling him after a turn through the order, rather than give people a second look at him. He wasn’t exactly blowing people away so I’d rather end it on a positive note. Plus, the pitch count was pretty low so maybe they are planning to have him available for Saturday’s game (Francis is starting).
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#461523) #
Great stuff from Yariel! 99!
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#461524) #
Agreed - Rodriquez should really be the top RH leverage option right now. Little has actually struggled in his last few outings (without the ceiling actually caving in) and may need a few days off. Great win and series sweep!
Glevin - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#461525) #
They're just beating good teams now. 38-30 is really good baseball. Feel a lot better about the Lauer/Turnbull piggyback than I do about Francis right now.
scottt - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#461526) #
The closer isn't necessarily the best reliever.
Often you need the best guy before the 9th.

Well, they're just rolling.
Hopefully, they didn't lose Clement as the Phillies have lefties.

Turnbull is your old low velo junkballer.
Not the worse thing, but that first pitch made things interesting.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#461527) #
They've pushed themselves over a 90win pace now, and solidly into a top-10 record in baseball. That's good but they've been here before. I'm interested if they can stay consistent and actually push themselves up in the 95+ win, top-5 team top contender bracket. They'll definitely need guys like Scherzer and Santander to come back straw to get there I think.


speaking of which, it sounds like Scherzer is scheduled to start in AAA on friday. they say they want him to get 2 starts in down there but if he's feeling good after the first i'm not sure they have to wait.


June13: Gausman (5 days rest) - Scherzer starts in AAA
June14: Berrios (4)
June15: Bassit (4)
June16: Offday
June17: Lauer (5)
June18: Gausman (4) or Scherzer (4) ?
June19: Berrios (4) or Gausman (5) or Scherzer (5)?
June20: Bassitt (4) or Berrios (5) or Scherzer (6)?
June21: Bassitt (5) or Scherzer (7)?
June22: Lauer (4)
June23: Offday


If they activate Scherzer after this next start they can skip any Francis start and still have everyone nice and rested at the end of this stretch.


Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#461528) #
Having come out publicly and said that Francis will make his next start, I would guess that that will happen. That would likely be on June 17.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#461529) #
They went even further than that and said it would be on his regular turn. Francis is pitching on Saturday.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#461530) #
Does anyone know how Lukes got a concussion? I was surprised to see he was on concussion protocol. I thought he just had a sore neck.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#461531) #
Luke’s definitely took a shot to the head in that collision with Clements, so I assume that was it.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#461532) #
I didn’t put that apostrophe there!
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#461533) #
Francis is starting Saturday, it’s already been made official by the team. It’s likely going to fail but I guess they feel there’s no other alternative. Hopefully Scherzer comes back soon.
scottt - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#461534) #
Maybe Francis will wear Clement's pants on Saturday and will hence pitch like Robbie Ray.
That could be the plan. Right?
Nigel - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#461536) #
Thanks 92-93 and SK, I missed that they had set Saturday as the day for Francis.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 11 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#461537) #
Checking teams for rotations (AL East)... Using fWAR in () to rank 1/2/3/4/5 using only starting stats.
  1. Garrett Crochet (Bos 2.5), Max Fried (NYY 2.2), Drew Rasmussen (TB 1.4), Kevin Gausman (1.4), Dean Kremer (Bal 0.8)
  2. Carlos Rodón (NYY 1.8), Chris Bassitt (1.4), Ryan Pepiot (TB 0.8), Hunter Dobbins (Bos 0.7), Cade Povich (Bal 0.6)
  3. Will Warren (NYY 1.1), José Berríos (0.8), Sean Newcomb (Bos 0.6), Taj Bradley (TB 0.6), Tomoyuki Sugano (Bal 0.5)
  4. Clarke Schmidt (NYY 0.8), Brayan Bello (Bos 0.3), Trevor Rogers (Bal 0.2), Zack Littell (TB 0.2), Paxton Schultz (0.1)
  5. Ryan Yarbrough (NYY 0.3), Lucas Giolito (Bos 0.2), Joe Boyle (TB 0.2), Keegan Akin (Bal 0.1), José Ureña (-0.1)
Also of note: Marcus Stroman (NYY -0.1), -0.2 for Yariel Rodríguez, Easton Lucas, Eric Lauer, Max Scherzer, Braydon Fisher, Bowden Francis (-1.0 dead last by 0.3 - no other starter has 60+ IP with a WAR sub 0 in the AL - Arizona has 2 and the Padres one).

This gives a bit of an idea of rotation depth (NYY leading in all but #1 starter where they are 2nd), also how 1 start can get you -0.2 WAR easily.
scottt - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 06:18 AM EDT (#461538) #
The concussion protocol is one case where they can't wait days before putting someone on the IL.
Glevin - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#461539) #
Interesting article on Fisher on Fangraphs and how he's changed his approach this year. (Throwing a curveball as change of pace to his slider for example). Jays have done an insanely good job with bullpen (reverse of last year). The top relievers by WAR are:
Little-Traded for cash
Fisher-Traded for Biggio
Fluharty-Draft
Lauer-Minor league contract


Glevin - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#461540) #
Clement now has a 234 WRC+ vs LHP and 48 vs RHP. Insane. I wish Schneider would stop playing him against RHP so much. He has 156 PAs against RHP where he has provided essentially zero or negative value and 68 PAs against lefties where he has provided tremendous value. Obviously, he should never play 1B because it takes away from his best skill which is elite D (teach Robertson or Lukes or someone to play there) Yesterday was a microcosm of his splits. 3/3 with a HR against LHP. 0/1 with GDP vs RHP. Speaking of which, he hit into a DP and then got CS meaning he accounted for all three outs of the inning without hitting into a triple play. I am sure that is very rare but no idea how rare.

Michael - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#461541) #
"a third catcher so that Kirk and Heineman can play in the same games without concern for a backup"

I'm with 92-93 that you should have no concern about that. First, an injury or something needing to remove your catcher is rare (pinch running is more common, but if it is late enough, even that may be ok). If it happens, you roll with it and lose the DH but:

1. That might be late in the game in which case you are already at the relievers and pulling pitchers anyways so using PH for the pitchers is a pretty non-problem.
2. If it were early and/or if the pitcher you had pitching is still cooking, use up a PA or two with the pitcher hitting - you could bunt or leave the bat on your shoulder or whatever.

If you did it every game for a season you'd have something like max 6-8 games where you pulled the catcher (not counting PR in the 9th or something), and at least half of those would be when you are in the RP part of the game. So you are dealing with something like 3-5 pitcher PA in a full season of doing this. And another 15-20 PA where you use a PH from the bench for a RP (and possibly a double switch if you want to get a different defender/hitter in). Against that, in a full season, you are getting something like 300 PA of the good hitters you want. The gap between your good 2 catchers and the worse player you'd have to have if you have one on the bench doesn't need to be much when you are talking about 100 times the PA with the good catchers than any PA where a series of events occur that make you hit a pitcher, and like 15 times the PA that even "force" you to use a PH when you are switching RP on inning changes late.

It's just not worth worrying about.

Giving guys time off, or worrying about if Heineman is actually the best choice in the lineup, may well be worth worrying about - but not the 3rd catcher trope.
Michael - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#461542) #
Full season shoul be 600 PA not 300 PA, so it's over twice as good as I had above. So 200:1 and 30:1 not 100:1 and 15:1, so again, not really worth a worry.
uglyone - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#461543) #
Yeah Glevin nice to see the RP working out for once. I always thought this FO had the right approach to bullpens in general but they were pretty poor in assessing what type of guys to gamble on. Offhand it seems like they concentrated this year on pure swing and miss arms much more than ever before and it seems to be working out.

I also like how we have a couple legit YOUNG arms in there like Fluharty and Fisher. Seems like it's been a while since we had any good sub-25yr old relievers.
bpoz - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#461544) #
This year seems to have a lot of streaky teams. 10+ wins in a row gets you high in the standings and 10+losses in a row gets you down from the top. The 10+ wins have been happening a lot.

As mentioned earlier 5 game W/L mixes up the positions for the 6 teams below NYY.

I suspect most fans all over baseball will be cheering the win streaks and complaining about the losing streaks. IMO both W & L streaks are guaranteed to happen. So will high and low emotions.
Kelekin - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#461545) #
I remember when there was concerns about the Jays not developing bullpen arms a few years ago and they went into the 2022 draft and decided to pick three relievers back to back (Jennings/Fluharty/Brock). If not for injuries, all three may already be in the Jays bullpen, or at least knocking on the door.

We still need to keep the pipeline going, but it's at least nice to see. Bullpens are so inconsistent and it's not a good place to be when you have to throw a lot of money at the problem. If enough arms emerge and stay strong through the end of the year, the Jays could shed about $10m+ from the bullpen to put elsewhere.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#461546) #
If the Blue Jays want to make an extremely bold move at the trade deadline, they could offer a big package of prospects (headlined by Nimmala or Yesavage) for Skenes.

Would Nimmala, Roden, King and a couple of lesser prospects get it done?
Kelekin - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#461548) #
I don't even think Nimmala + Yesavage gets them a conversation.
John Northey - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#461549) #
Excellent points there Michael on why a 3rd catcher is pretty secondary. In truth the 13th hitter is pretty irrelevant on most clubs. Back in the 80's when I was a kid and became a big fan platooning was common here - 3B with Gance Mullinorg, RF with Barfield/Powell, LF Bonnell/Woods, DH Nordhagen/Revering, C Whitt/Martinez in '82, by '85 it had cut down as guys became regulars so the Jays did something 'risky' by taking 2 Rule 5 hitters (Lou Thornton, Manny Lee) one of whom would be a key part of the '92 WS team. The '85 team still had GanceMullinorg, DH Oliver/Johnson (by the end, started with Burroughs/Aikens), C Whitt/Martinez. Bobby Cox loved platooning. By '92/93 platooning was pretty much gone thus the bench ended with Alfredo Griffin who got into 40-60 games a year.

Basically the end of the bench is not used much, and hasn't been ever. Schneider uses his bench more than most, with 15 guys up to 50+ PA at the 68 game mark (all on pace for well over 100 PA). In most years you rarely get 15 with 100 PA all year. In fact we have 11 over 100 PA already (Roden 4 shy, Clase 23 short). Safe to say that Heinemann will get over 100 if he stays healthy (407 average, if he goes 0-37 to get to 100 he'd still be hitting 279 which I think we'd all have said is fine for a backup catcher pre-season). Will Wagner probably won't get his 32 more PA, but Davis Schneider is at 38 PA and likely to stick around as a RH bench hitter. In 2024 we had 16 guys hit 100 PA, in '23 just 13. 14 in '22, 15 in '21. The 92 team had 13, '85 13, '82 (big platoon year) 16. Heck, '77 when they were trying anything had just 17 reach 100 PA.

Basically, after your starters and 4 backups everyone else just gets a few PA all year. So the value of a 3rd catcher isn't high but neither is the value of anyone else at that far end of the bench. Even on championship teams (92/93 with Griffin, 92 also carried Rance Mulliniks who had 3 PA in the regular season (injured) and sat on the bench in the '92 WS out of loyalty from Gaston). It is fun to debate 6th OF vs 3rd catcher but in truth the value of either is minimal, what matters is who will the manager use and in what role?
  • Regulars: Kirk-Vlad-Gimenez-Bo-Clement-Springer
  • Platooners: Straw-Lukes(Robertson?), Clase/Roden, Barger/Schneider
  • Backup Catcher: Heinemann
  • Once Varsho & Santander are back 2 of the OF platoons go bye bye, with LF or RF being a semi-platoon of Barger/Straw (Barger playing most of the time) with Clase/Roden/Robertson all sent down and Lukes/Schneider being 'splitter crew' guys sitting more than playing.
I'd be surprised if it doesn't work out (more or less) that way in the end. But basically Schneider is doing a good job making sure few players ever sit doing nothing (Roden is in that boat right now more or less, but someone has to be the odd guy out it seems). Stefanic was in that 'splitter crew' role before, with just 25 PA over the 17 games he was up for.

I suspect the Jays want to see if Robertson can play in the majors, trying to enhance his value in a trade or see if he can be a useful part moving forward. I gotta think they are working on deals to clear out some of the massive OF glut of 24-28 year olds who have little value if they don't start playing regularly soon (mix in the AAA OF of Loperfido-Pinango-Shreck as well). I mean, Colorado has a DH with a 58 OPS+, CF has a 61, RF a 70. That team could really use any of our glut of 'meh'. Jake Bird in their pen might be nice (1.41 ERA over 38 IP, 11.7 K/9 vs 3.5 BB/9 and a 0.2 HR/9 rate in Colorado) if they'd consider a trade of a few of our OF surplus (plus Wagner and a meh pitcher).

Right now the club is doing damn fine, but there is an issue with a big OF surplus and sending them down will create a glut in AAA/AA quickly. Andrew Heaney in Pittsburgh would be nice (making just over $5 mil, 128 ERA+ as a starter, free agent post 2025) and Pittsburgh has a massive hole in LF (the 2 used the most are Tommy Pham 43 wRC+, and Alexander Canario 64 wRC+, no one else has 20 PA in LF for them). But odds are they'd ask for a fair amount to get him - they'd want real prospects, not just 'meh'.
John Northey - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#461550) #
greenfrog - thanks for the laugh. Pittsburgh ain't trading Skenes for anything. Could offer them the entire club and they'd say 'no'.

As I listed, there are a few more realistic targets out there. Andrew Heaney from Pittsburgh is the 'Kikuchi' of this years trade deadline I think (final year, meh pitcher having a fine year, even throws left), Luis Severino with the A's is a target for many (86 ERA+ but steady/dependable 4th/5th guy for a rotation), Sandy Alcantara in Miami is the big prize potentially - 60 ERA+ this year as he recovers from missing '24 due to injuries - last 2 starts 12 IP 2 ER total, but an 8.47 ERA over 11 starts before that - owed $17.3 mil in '26, $21 mil in '27 or $2 mil buyout. Odds are Miami will want a LOT for him but I'd certainly consider it. Miami's weaknesses are mostly pitching, 1B/DH (both sub 95 OPS+), with poor hitters at 2B/SS/3B (all sub 90 OPS+).

Who is easily available from the Jays side? The OF crew (Roden-Straw-Lukes-Clase-Schneider-Robertson-Loperfido) plus Wagner, Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez, Schreck all in AAA would be quick trades for the right piece. I'd bet many pitchers land there too - Lauer, Lucas, Schultz, Fisher, etc. The only real untouchables would be Yesavage and Nimmala imo. Anyone else in the system could be had for the right price.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#461553) #
Pittsburgh certainly would not accept the entire Blue Jays club in exchange for Skenes. They can’t afford the roster.

They probably won’t trade Skenes this year, but why not make a serious offer headlined by (affordable) elite prospects? As Bowden recently said in The Athletic on this topic, “I learned long ago in baseball … never say never.”
hypobole - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#461554) #
Pirates have enough trouble drawing fans as it is. Skenes is their Luka. Fan outrage would be immense, especially among season ticket holders, many of whom would become ex-season ticket holders.
uglyone - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#461556) #
Plausible Best Lineup using....


(asterisk = platoon only)


...This Year's Stats Only:

1. DH Springer 250pa, .366obp, 141wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 297pa, .380obo, 129wrc+
3. C Alejandro 218pa, .367obp, 129wrc+
4. RF Barger 164pa, .323obp, 126wrc+
5. SS Bichette 309pa, .320obp, 110wrc+
6. CF Varsho 100pa, .240obp, 107wrc+
7. 3B Clement 224pa, .317obp, 104wrc+
8. 2B Gimenez 169pa, .292obp, 80wrc+
9. LF Lukes* 143pa, .368obp, 117wrc+

B. UT Santander 209pa, .273obp, 65wrc+
B. OF Straw* 125pa, .300obp, 84wrc+
B. IF Schneider 38pa, .368obp, 102wrc+
B. C Heineman 63pa, .419obp, 187wrc+

X. UT Roden 96pa, .260obp, 52wrc+
X. OF Clase 77pa, .289obp, 71wrc+
X. IF Wagner 68pa, .284obp, 51wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 25pa, .280obp, 40wrc+
X. C Sanchez 11pa, .182obp, 20wrc+



....Past 1 Calendar Year:

1. DH Springer 614pa, .335obp, 123wrx+
2. 1B Guerrero 703pa, .397obp, 164wrc+
3. C Alejandro 481pa, .345obp, 114wrc+
4. RF Santander 618pa, .299obp, 111wrc+
5. 2B Clement 557pa, .303obp, 103wrc+
6. 3B Barger 371pa, .292obp, 102wrc+
7. SS Bichette 381pa, .307obp, 97wrc+
8. CF Varsho 381pa, .271obp, 91wrc+
9. LF Lukes* 234pa, .364obp, 123wrc+

B. UT Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+
B. OF Clase 108pa, .327obp, 98wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 541pa, .284obp, 74wrc+
B. C Heineman 77pa, .395obp, 159wrc+

X. UT Schneider 272pa, .261obp, 59wrc+
X. OF Straw* 129pa, .298obp, 82wrc+
X. IF Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 92wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 70pa, .286obp, 117wrc+

X. UT Roden 96pa, .260obp, 52wrc+
X. OF Loperfido 219pa, .242obp, 62wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 143pa, .303obp, 63wrc+
X. C Sanchez 107pa, .208obp, 12wrc+



.....Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

1. SS Bichette 378pa, .327obp, 116wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 394pa, .373obp, 142wrc+
3. C Alejandro 287pa, .352obp, 118wrc+
4. RF Santander 276pa, .312obp, 114wrc+
5. 3B Barger 301pa, .314obp, 107wrc+
6. DH Springer 357pa, .329obp, 112wrc+
7. 2B Gimenez 361pa, .321obp, 103wrc+
8. LF Lukes* 154pa, .340obp, 110wrc+
9. CF Varsho 305pa, .292obp, 102wrc+

B. UT Schneider 65pa, .323obp, 106wrc+
B. OF Roden 162pa, .335obp, 107wrc+
B. IF Clement 167pa, .307obp, 100wrc+
B. C Heineman 97pa, .321obp, 93wrc+

X. UT Wagner 32pa, .344obp, 109wrc+
X. OF Clase 114pa, .296obp, 86wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 8pa, .337obp, 110wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 4pa, .280obp, 92wrc+

X. UT Martinez 20pa, .277obp, 88wrc+
X. OF Loperfido 8pa, .299obp, 94wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 9pa, .356obp, 109wrc+
X. C Sanchez 4pa, .282obp, 77wrc+

X. OF Robertson 41pa, .280obp, 81wrc+
X. OF Straw* 89pa, .303obp, 77wrc+
Mike Green - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#461558) #
The Blue Jays FO did indeed do a good job of finding freely available talent to bolster the depth in the pitching staff.

Eric Lauer's career path might be familiar. He was quite good for Milwaukee in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, he lost control and gave up 16 homers in 46 innings. He had a right shoulder impingement, and missed the rest of the year. He was in the KBL and reasonably effective in 2024. I think he's a good bet to be a perfectly reasonable starter at the back end of the rotation.

The Jays might want to make sure that Bowden Francis' left shoulder is OK, while they are at it.
Magpie - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#461559) #
Or [Kirk and Heineman] can just play in the same game without concern about losing your DH in case of emergency.

Back in the Montoyo era, I actually investigated how often the Blue Jays had been forced to use three catchers in the same game. As I recall, Charlie was somewhat reluctant to use Kirk as the DH. Anyway, the Jays had needed to use three catchers in the same game just sixteen times in franchise history. The team did happen to be carrying three catchers on each occasion. The one time the team was forced to put a non-catcher (Tom Lawless) behind the plate happened when they actually had four catchers on the active roster, which may have given Cito Gaston a false sense of security.
Nigel - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#461560) #
They also have Varsho, an actual C, as an emergency C when he is healthy.
dalimon5 - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#461567) #
Pittsburgh would definitely trade Skenes if it meant they could start competing for a division. It's not about stars or season ticket holder favourites. If they can trade Skenes and his WAR and bring in the same WAR and add prospects with more potential WAR and save money down the road then of course they would. Why would they keep a player who will be unaffordable when they are ready to compete?

If Soto could be traded when he was then Skenes certainly could.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 12 2025 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#461568) #
Adding Skenes would immediately give the Blue Jays a legitimate shot at a World Series championship this year, and provide them with a replacement for (and a significant upgrade over) Bassitt in future seasons. Think David Price 2015 impact times about 10, when you factor in age and controllable years and sheer dominance (also Price wasn’t good in the postseason).

No offense to Chris Bassitt, who I appreciate a lot as a quality MLB starting pitcher.
scottt - Friday, June 13 2025 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#461569) #
Teams trade their star player when they start to get expensive and they do so in ways that every team can bet on them. 

Kirk is hot right now, but the Jays' best DH has been Springer.
When they put Springer at DH, they are resting him.
They oldest active position players in baseball are:
Justin Turner, 40.
Carlos Santana, 39.
Andrew McCutchen, 38.
Paul Goldschmidt, 37.
Freddy Freeman, 35.
Salvator Perez, 35.
George Springer, 35.

The more Kirk catches, the less he DHes.
Kirk had 470 PA in 22, his all-star year, but he caught in only 78 games that year.
He caught in 99 games in 23, and was the DH in only 17.
Last year, he caught in 93 games, and was the DH in only 6.
This year he's caught 52 and has been the DH in 3.
He's going to start to feel it sooner than later and Heineman is probably not hitting .400 the rest of the way. 
92-93 - Friday, June 13 2025 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#461576) #
You can't create a package that the Jays wouldn't part with for Skenes, other than maybe one with Kirk in it. Might as well throw Barger's name in front of Nimmala's for this fantasy.

Alcantara makes a lot more sense for both teams.
uglyone - Friday, June 13 2025 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#461577) #
I'm still keeping an eye on Chris Sale as long as the Braves are stuck way below .500.

Would be pretty cool to see Sale-Scherzer-Gausman playoff rotation, even if they're all 5-10 years past their primes.
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