This is Khal Stephen's first pro season and a 2.12 ERA is damn fine. 1.8 BB/9 vs 11.1 K/9 is a 'wow'. Just shy of 5 IP per game, 3 - 6 innings per game. Between him and Yesavage the 2024 draft is looking good. Mix in 3rd rounder high schooler Johnny King (1.17 ERA in 15 1/3 IP in the FCL) and it is a 'so far, so good' situation. 4th rounder Nick Mitchell was part of the Gimenez trade. Other 4th rounder Sean Keys is off to a poor start this year.

Nimmala in his first slump. He has a .514 OPS in June. Hopefully, he pulls out of it soon. Stephen wasn't very impressive in the 2 innings I saw him pitch but he's looking great now. I don't trust pitching stats in minors nearly as much as hitting stats (i.e. you can get by with a straight 96 MPH fastball and slider that hitters chase all the time in A-Ball but that doesn't translate into upper levels.) but it's still good to see these kinds of numbers. Hopefully, next year the Jays will finally have starting pitching depth in the upper minors. When was the last time they had that? I think probably 2014 with Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, and others. That's a long time!

Joe Doyle in his mock draft has Jays taking Willits but mentions that they like Carlson too and seem to be very interested in a prep infielder. The only guys I think will 100% go before Jays pick are Holliday, Arquette, and Anderson. I expect Arnold, Willits, Hernandez to likely be gone too. However, drafts have surprises and it's easy to see a team or two going under-slot for some high schooler and upending the whole draft.

Carlson is interesting because he's old for the class (turns 19 soon) but he is an elite defender (best in class) with a plenty of power so there is tremendous upside if a team thinks they can help him make more consistent contact.

Thanks for the pics #2.

Jimmy Burnette has been released.

BA Draft Chat

Anonymous
Wondering if you see Jo Parker and the Jays a fit at 8? He seems to have a strong hit tool and maybe he could sign under slot to save for the 3rd round.
Carlos Collazo
He increasingly seems like a fit for a lot of teams. Everyone is into the bat, which I love to hear because I am also very into his bat. They could go under early and save for the third round with a number of players... I also think Jojo is right in a range where how much of a deal is he really taking at 8? He shouldn't last much further than that if he gets there.

Anonymous
How does Willets stack up against Lawler and Meyer from their draft year?
Carlos Collazo
I've thought about the Lawlar profile a decent bit for Willits. I am not sure that Willits has the same present power as Lawlar, but that all-around game and athletic profile makes at least some sense to me. More contact and maybe less juice for Willits? Mayer is a different type of athlete. But Willits is similar to both in terms of overall talent/upside for me.

Anonymous
Is this years draft class atypical or the top HS players for the most part older? A lot of guys like Seth, Carlson, Kyson, Parkers, etc are close to or are 19.
Carlos Collazo
Since the draft got moved back we have seen more 19 year olds at the draft simply because... the draft is at a later date on the calendar. It maybe is notable that we have four/five high schoolers who will be 19 (or close to it) on draft day inside the first round.

Tom
Given his age and elite stuff how risky is Hernandez? What would you say is a reasonable MLB debut for him?
Carlos Collazo
I think Seth is as risky as any elite, top-end high school righthander. So no more or less risky than guys like Jackson Jobe and Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore who have panned out and no less than someone like Dylan Lesko who blew out and has never quite figured it out since. If all goes well a 3-6 year ETA seems reasonable. Gore got to the bigs in five years but is becoming the sort of top-end pitcher we thought he might be in years 7/8 after the draft. Greene was five years to the bigs 7 to front line arm in the bigs. Jobe didn't have to deal with the Covid year and was three years to the bigs and we'll see if/when he hits on his upside potential.

Anonymous
Do you think the mariners go under slot at 3 to get another quality piece in the 30’s
Carlos Collazo
I would think a majority of the teams picking in the first 10 sign players to underslot deals of some capacity. So yes.

Anonymous
Would the Nationals seriously consider selecting Seth Hernandez with the first pick, and if so, why?
Carlos Collazo
Yes. Because he might be the best player in the class.

Anonymous
2020 Jared Jones, 2021 AJ Smith-Shawver, and 2022 Caden Dana as HS Ps drafted later that impressed. Projected 2025 HS pitching steals for this 2025 class?
Carlos Collazo
Robert Mitchell, Ethan Grim, Zach Strickland, Will Hynes, Marcos Paz and Jordan Martin are a few names beyond the top 100 that I like a bit.

Anonymous
How much does Willits being one year or more younger than most other prep players help him. Does it move him up a certain number of slots in value?
Carlos Collazo
This varies by team. Most factor age in some capacity but there are some who seem to really prioritize it in their models (Toronto, Cleveland) and others who mostly just use it as another piece of info. It is more important for hitters than pitchers.

Anonymous
When discussing this years class, it's often referred to as "down". Is that based more on probability or projectability?
Carlos Collazo
I have almost exclusively talked about this draft class as down on college hitters at the top of the class. Not down, generally. I think the talent on the high school side is quite strong. I think more teams should draft those profiles. But I'm just some guy! Some scouts think this class is down. Most I've talked to say the top end talent is down and the depth is solid or good.

Anonymous
What high school and college bats provides the best power tool in the draft?
Carlos Collazo
HS Power: Ethan Holliday, Xavier Neyens, Quentin Young, Taitn Gray, Josh Hammond, College Power: Jace LaViolette, Nolan Schubart, Ethan Petry, Jared Jones, Dominic Hellman, Brandon Compton

Stanifer slated to start tomorrow. Curious to see how he does in tradition starting roll. TBD in NH so maybe Yesavage there?

Keith Law put out a new mock draft today which has SS Billy Carlson going to the Jays: (He also has Aiva Arquette going #1 overall)

Everyone says the Blue Jays want a shortstop of some sort, and this is a good year to want a shortstop, as it turns out, with various flavors of shortstop available — college, high school, good defenders, good hitters, and so on. Given the seven players I have going above them, I think their choice would be between Carlson, the best of the high school group remaining, and Wehiwa Aloy, the best of the college group remaining. If they don’t like the shortstop options, I think they'd go with a college pitcher.

How do you feel about Carlson, metafour?

It seems like some people believe he's a swing correction away from unlocking a lot of power potential, and an excellent defender giving him a safe floor, but usually floor is considered a dirty word in the draft these days.

Overall I've found it hard to get a read on him.

Carlson would be a pick that I would be happy with, because I can see the upside/talent. He looks a lot like a slightly tooled-down version of Bobby Witt Jr. at the same age (the biggest difference is on the present power).

He has a very athletic build which I like (lean, long legs, shorter torso) and looks like he has a lot of room for further physical projection in terms of adding muscle despite being "over-aged" for his HS class. So him being older isn't really coming through in terms of being more physically mature than his peers.

It would be nicer if he wasn't in the poor age-modeling category, but I'm not dogmatic on the "over-aged HS hitter = bad" philosophy. That 2019 Draft with Witt Jr. really went against that theory with Witt Jr. (19.0), Abrams (18.7), Greene (18.7), and Carroll (18.8) all panning out. Even hyper-old Brett Baty (19.6) made it to the MLB. Meanwhile the big pop-up guy was 18.0 year old Keoni Cavaco who hasn't even made it past A-ball.

Yesavage has been officially welcomed to NH which usually means he is starting tonight.

Appreciate it, and makes me feel better about the selection of Carlson if we go that route.

Coronado watch continues - 3/5 with 1 BB, now sporting a .595 OBP with 14 BB to 1 K.

Yesavage officially assigned to New Hampshire and starting tonight.