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Hey everyone. Been a while...


Seeing as the browser ate my completed first draft and I couldn't recover it (ah, just like the old days)... I'll be more brief than initially intended on this go-around. All those brilliant insights and jokes I had set up with contemplated witty precision... sadly forever lost in the catacombs of internet history. 

The assignment here is self-evident: how many games will the 2026 Blue Jays win? Plus any and whatever fun developments, playoff outcomes, trade imaginings or wild happenings elsewhere in the league you fancy... this is the place to let em loose so don't be shy. 

As for my own predictions? Well... it's a very tough act to follow. The 2025 team genuinely was really special, a generationally memorable run that fans of the Blue Jays will reminisce fondly on forever. To answer, they've clearly made bold moves to improve: adding another potential frontline starting pitcher in Dylan Cease* (who I like a lot), trying to offset the hitting loss of Bo Bichette (whom I think we're going to miss a lot more than most of us are admitting to ourselves) by adding a veteran-yet-unknown-quantity in Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto, strengthening the by-nature-unreliable relief position with the most reliable guy you can think of in Tyler Rogers (get ready for some really funny swings on his slider) and a modest gamble on Cody Ponce having figured something out and being a useful MLB dude (and I use the word "dude" to describe Ponce precisely). Plus, the defensive upgrade up the middle (even if at SS Gimenez is merely good rather than elite) for a full year can't be overlooked, especially if Daulton Varsho (in a walk year) can give you twice as many games as he did in 2025.

The offense is where I worry the most, though I still think its most likely the team ends up good rather than great in that department. Another Addison Barger leveling up, Okamoto hitting the ground running (ideally figuratively), Jesus Sanchez running into 20-25 home runs, Guerrero picking up where he left off last October, Springer and Kirk still being above average regulars... none of it seems unreasonably hopeful, nor does all of it have to go right for this whole thing to work (though you'd probably want at least a couple). 

They've done almost as much as one could ask to make the team better, which while seeming like the bare minimum (because it is) you can also ask fans of the Colorado Rockies or the Milwaukee Brewers** if they share such a pleasant sentiment towards their own teams. While no team is ever truly and completely childproofed against 'the worst that can happen'(TM), you do like the 2026 Blue Jays' chances of weathering a reasonable number of calamities*** and being a dangerous team again once the leaves on the trees begin to fade and drift back down towards the earth. Their considerable depth remains an asset and one figures this pitching staff will really be the key to carrying the crown for the season (is that even a saying?). 

Can this 2026 team really recapture that special magic though? The glass slipper, Power of Friendship(TM) type stuff that made 2025 such an unforgettable and incredible year to be a Blue Jays fan? Perhaps this team can, in their own way... but it won't be the same. And that's okay. 



92-70, 1st AL East (by a nose over NYY and BAL, with BOS looming like a gargoyle all summer too). Guerrero Jr finishes top 4 in MVP, Josh Kasevich and RJ Schreck**** get ROY votes, Ernie Clement finally wins a Gold Glove (as does Alejandro Kirk).



*So Dylan Cease has this really weird thing where in mid-windup he abruptly turns his head towards third base before turning back to face home plate as he finishes his delivery. Like for a quick moment he looks completely away from both the catcher and hitter while in his leg kick. I wonder if this is an intentional thing he's consciously doing... I'm sure it might make more than a couple hitters uncomfortable digging in against a guy who is throwing a ball at them without looking.

**I think this is the year the annual exodus of premier talent from Milwaukee finally makes the Brewers stumble, leaving them as a .500ish squad and finishing a few games behind the surprise-of-the-summer Pittsburgh Pirates. 

***as a rule, never ever challenge the worst that can happen. The phrase itself tries to warn you: it 'can' happen. 

****I just really like his swing. This is me admitting that an 'as likely' result is Schreck never even getting an MLB look (or a Simon Pond-esque result when he does) or, maybe he's Adam Lind-lite (with obviously better outfield defense heh). Youneverknow. Meanwhile Kasevich just has such an obvious path to semi-regular playing time on this particular Jays team. 


2026 Predictions Thread | 54 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#475936) #
Cease was on a podcast and speaks about a new delivery this year that he says has improved things immensely for him.

Today on another podcast Kevin Kiermaier came on and said Kevin Gausman is considering this may be his last year. I know he and his kids live in the GTA (I believe year round?).

Kevin Gausman has another stellar year pitching 200+ innings.

Dylan Cease wins the Cy Young and goes from 8 QS last year to over 20 this year.

Tarik Skubal gets injured.

Garret Crochet gets injured.

Pete Alonso hits more HR than Aaron Judge.

Roman Anthony is the 2nd best player in the AL after Bobby Witt Jr.

Shohei Ohtani gets injured and regresses as a pitcher.

Yamamoto gets injured.

LAD miss the playoffs.

Rickey Tiedeman outperforms an on again off again injured Trey Yesavage.

Juan Soto reminds everyone why he is the best and Bo Bichette struggles badly but hits 30+ HR.

One Beauxite no longer takes exception to general/harmless comments/points (me)
bpoz - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#475938) #
Very enjoyable writeup. For now my dull prediction is good and bad surprises.
johnny was - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#475939) #
Irony dies when Ross Atkins empties the prospect cupboard to trade for Tarik Skubal on the 11th anniversary of the David Price acquisition.

TBJ's We Are Family 2.0 approach to vibes continues to work and the good guys retain their AL East title, but every team in the division finishes .500 or better.

The A's powerful offense is the talk of baseball and they somehow lead the AL West at the All Star break.

The KC Royals win the AL Central as the baseball gods punish the Tigers for striking out too much and having terrible IF defense.

The Mets find new and hilarious ways to fall just a hair short of a playoff spot to the delight of everyone else in baseball.
June Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#475941) #
Always fun - I'll be the eternal optimist here. Jays get serious contenders for most major awards - Vlad MVP, Yesavage ROY, Cease & Gausman Cy, Hoffman closer of the year (see a big 'must prove myself' attitude in him for '26).

All of that results in the first 100 win team in Jays history and an AL East title, then going all the way as a great way to celebrate 50 years.

We also see 4 gold gloves (Kirk-Gimenez-Clement-Varsho) to go with Okamoto having a great first ML season (120 OPS+). The Yankees have a tough year as injuries kill them (Judge goes down for a few weeks, multiple starters down regularly, never have a full 5 man rotation of who they wanted to be there). Tampa surprises and sneaks into the playoffs, Baltimore collapses down to last place and starts a rebuild - again. The Dodgers lose in the first round of the playoffs, the Giants end up being the NL reps in the World Series.

Yeah, most of that probably won't happen, but it would be fun wouldn't it?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#475942) #
Dylan Cease:

"I got a gut feeling to try turning my head, I thought about how Yamamoto pitches and I was like, I'm pretty sure he does that, so I went to the field the next day and I like basically threw not looking at the target and it came out sooo clean. It was instantly 3 or 4 MPH with the same effort. It was coming out, the shape was perfect. So then I (compared) went to the old way of keeping my head in the target and it felt like I was just around the ball and it just didn't feel good you know, so I was like I guess we're gonna ride with this. So so just show up the next day and I'm like, I know this sounds weird, we're gonna try this...I was visualizing and I think the subconscious produced something...I'm going to give it a try. Song, I basically just started with that and has been refining my mechanics brought that and it's been coming out clean. It's coming out really clean. And it's been fun. Honestly, learning a new way of throwing and a new feel, it's coming out REALLY GOOD."

He explains, "it's not that my eyes aren't on the target it's just that I'm picking it up later. The new movement puts my hand in a better position...I'm rotating more in sequence or more naturally."

Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman and his yoga teacher all told him to do the opposite (look at the target).
June Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#475943) #
One more - Varsho signs a long term deal by mid-season. 5 years at $25 mil per (see Pete Crow-Armstrong's deal - $30 mil per for his last 2 years, FA years, age 29/30 - the rest isn't comparable as it is pre-arb and arb years in his mid 20's). I suspect Varsho will push for the $30 mil per for 4-5 years, but his deal will be for ages 30+ unless this year is included (age 29). I wouldn't go past 5 years unless the net pay is what he will be worth pre age 35 (IE: to cut the luxury tax hit). So lets say he is worth $30 mil per, but will sign at $25 per if he gets 7 years - 7 x $25 = $175 mil, 5 x $30 = $150 so unless the Jays think he'll be worth $30 mil over his age 36/37 seasons (possible) they wouldn't sign it. But $20 per for 7 = $140 mil so you would sign that, maybe even $20 per for 8 ($160).
greenfrog - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#475944) #
I’m still considering my own prediction for the Blue Jays this year, but being slightly/occasionally mischievous, I thought I would mention Keith Law’s just-posted prediction for Toronto:

85 wins, fourth place in the AL East
June Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#475945) #
Sadly not a shock from Law. I suspect he expects the worst from assorted Jays, and the best from the O's, Red Sox, and Yankees. Yankees have massive injury risks, O's had a horrid year last year, and the Red Sox did a big jump and are counting on 3 LHP in their rotation - rarely a recipe for success in Fenway. The O's have Chris Bassitt as their #4, a guy who would've been #7 or so on our depth charts, but might have been #4 right now with the injuries.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#475946) #
I honestly didn't see any "magic" from the jays last year. They were just a really good team. In fact a whole bunch of things went horribly wrong for them last year.
greenfrog - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#475947) #
I don’t think Law’s prediction shows any negative bias towards the Blue Jays. Fangraphs currently projects the Blue Jays to win 86 games, so Law’s prediction is basically in line with that.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#475952) #
Didn't Keith Law pick Toronto to finish last in the previous year?

It might be a good time to post his usual introduction with caveats. Here is 2025:

"It’s an annual tradition: My column explaining why I think your favorite team isn’t going to win as many games as you think they are.

These predictions are for fun, not a demonstration of my deep-seated loathing for your favorite team, and not the product of a sophisticated machine-learning algorithm to produce impeccable forecasts. I make it all up, and then I talk about it. (I do, however, rely on FanGraphs’ projections as a starting point for several things here, especially some individual player projections, and this piece would be far harder without them.)"

"I’ve done this for at least 15 years now, and the reactions are always the same — people look for what I said about their favorite teams and then yell at me about it. I got one division winner right last year, and for the second year in a row a team I picked to finish in fourth place in their division won the pennant (the Yankees). This should be an annual favorite column for people who like to tell me I don’t know what I’m talking about. You want proof? I’ll give you proof, every year, in 3,000 words or so."

June Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#475953) #
Yeah, I think I'm just annoyed when I see someone putting them 4th - I have trouble seeing the NYY, O's, and Red Sox all beating the Jays this year. FG has it Yankees 88 W, RS 86, Jays 85, O's 83, Rays 81 at the moment. Basically a coin flip for NYY/RS/Jays - 3 wins is nothing over 162. O's and Rays right there too - 7 wins isn't that big over a full season either. Others of note: Tigers 84 wins, Mariners 88 wins, Rangers 83, Royals 82, Astros 81 - that is it for AL teams projected at 500+ from FG. Thus those are the ones the Jays will fight for playoffs most likely. All 5 in division plus 5 more (2 will win divisions, so 3 more for the wild cards). Thus 7 teams for wild cards after factoring in 3 for division - 10 teams in contention - 5 out of it (Twins, Guardians, White Sox, A's, Angels) although someone always seems to surprise from that projected sub 500 group - I'd bet on the Guardians as they always seem to outperform, the A's are a trendy one this year.
Gerry - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#475954) #
Jays win 88 games, win a wild card spot.

Vlad wins MVP.

Springer and Gausman take step back.

Barger takes a jump forward.
Nigel - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#475956) #
Vegas O/U has the Jays at 88.5 wins so 85 is within the realm of the public betting universe's view of things. The 2026 Jays will be a better team than the 2025 Jays and win fewer games. The run prevention will be improved through a much improved starting staff but run scoring will be down. Pretty much everything went right last year (for example the Manager went on an all time heater where every move (whether logical or not) seemed to work) and that is unlikely to repeat and the division just keeps getting tougher. 89 wins and a wild card berth.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#475957) #
So, so many things went wrong last year.

From the original planned roster all these guys either imploded completely or missed most of the year to injury or both:

Over half the original starting lineup:

CF Varsho
RF Santander
LF Roden
3B Wagner
SS Gimenez

Bench:

IF Jimenez


Starting Pitching:

Scherzer
Francis

And half the original bullpen:

Garcia
Green
Swanson
Sandlin





Mike Green - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#475958) #
100+ wins for the first time in franchise history.  Run prevention down by 100, runs scored down by 10.  Vlad Jr. has the best year of his career at age 27 and wins the MVP.  

It's a classic club.  Defensive strength in the middle of the diamond.  Power at the corners.  Very fine starting pitching.  It should be a lot of fun again.  
Glevin - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#475961) #
Division is so tough but still really like the Jays chances. Going with 90 wins and first wildcard spot. Cease is an ace, Vladdy is great all year. (BTW, Jimenez has been DFAd. Miles and Schenider make the team.).
SK in NJ - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#475962) #
Count me in for the "Vlad for MVP" bandwagon. If he doesn't win it, then he'll be top 3. He always had the tools offensively. I think he finally figured something out in the playoffs last season and he's going to be consistently elite now (no more 6 WAR followed by 3 WAR seasons). I'll also add that I think Cease is going to be really good. This is the right environment for him.

I'm battling between the Yankees and Jays for 1st in the East. Could be either one, and a lot will depend on health obviously. I'll be a homer and pick the Jays to win the East, but either way I see them making the playoffs even if it's as a WC team. I think they are deeper than last season.
greenfrog - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#475963) #
91 wins.

The pitching quality, good defense, adequate offense, overall depth, and a judicious trade deadline acquisition or two helps them be a consistently good team that continues to inspire. They experience more highs than lows.

Springer will take a step back and the team will miss Bo’s excellent bat in the cleanup spot. A few injury issues, and the relatively low OBP posted by some of the hitters, keeps them from being a 95+ win team.

The team soon realizes that they could have used a good #2 hitter like Tucker or a Swiss Army knife skilled hitter like Donovan-Zobrist.
Dave Till - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#475965) #
The 1985 Jays went 99-63 and in fact were on pace to do better than that for most of the season, going 88-51 before finishing 11-11. They were a great young team but, in 1986, various things went wrong and they won 86 games.

Unfortunately, I think we’re in for a bit of that this year too. The starting rotation has been worn thin already, they could use at least one more big bat, and I’m not sure about the bullpen depth. Things are going to go wrong.

86 wins and a wild card berth. After which, the playoffs are a crapshoot and anything could happen.
June Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#475966) #
I was listening to the latest Wilner podcast (daily this week) and he had Barger on - guy sounds so relaxed about not needing to play the infield anymore, he enjoyed it, but sounds like RF is the place to be so he now can focus more on offense and I bet he outproduces his projections. PECOTA has him from 1% (ugly) 71 dRC+ (213/273/353) to 50% 96 dRC+ (236/301/416) to 99% 132 dRC+ (261/339/512). My gut says he finishes closer to his 99% than the 50%. His 95% is 116 dRC+ and I'm betting on that over his mid-range of 96, while the 99% wouldn't surprise me at all.

Vlad's 1% is 115 260/336/414, 50% 140 280/365/474, 99% 178 307/406/575. His 50% would be nice, that 99% would be an MVP possibly. Heck, his 1% would be marginally acceptable if he has another WOW playoff.

Gimenez - the worst hitter on the team among regulars we all expect - has 1% 76 229/291/335, 50% 98 252/318/383, 99% 120 269/344/438 - basically a 1% shot at him being the guy he was when he signed his current deal, 50-50 of being a league average hitter, 1% shot at being horrid (last year he had a dRC+ of 81 which was below his 1% projection of 86 so if he has as good a 2026 as 2025 was bad we'd see a 120 dRC+ which would be amazing and put him in contention for MVP).

Fun to look at those numbers. Odds are always that most will be around the 50% mark of projections but oddities like Gimenez last year will happen. Varsho for example had a 120 dRC+ vs his 99% of 129 (close to as far from centre as Gimenez but to the good). Varsho ranges from 63-88-128 for '26 btw.
Dave Till - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#475968) #
The 1985 Jays went 99-62, sigh. Me not edit good.
electric carrot - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#475969) #
Nothing electric about this prediction:

Decline with Springer will be more than compensated for by better years from Vladdy/Kirk/Varsho and overall hitting gets a little better than 2025.

Pitching:
Some decline in Gausman will be more than compensated for with good years from Cease/Scherzer and eventually Yesavage and Bieber. Starting pitching also a bit better than 2025.

92 wins.
1st place AL East.
electric carrot - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#475970) #
Also, Yanks dissappoint Yankee fans!
bpoz - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#475971) #
91 wins. Barger establishes himself as a big LH power bat. Our minor leagues and waiver wire acquisitions provide 2 V good bullpen arms.
85bluejay - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#475973) #
The jays have a very solid team but I'm apprehensive about the season because of history - Teams that have a meltdown like the jays did, teams that snatch defeat from the jaws of victory usually have a hangover that carries over to the next season.
Michael - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#475974) #
I guess I'm a bit more optimistic than most as my best guess is 93 wins and 1st wild card spot.
greenfrog - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#475975) #
I actually think a 91-win estimate is fairly optimistic. In their history (49 total seasons including one COVID-shortened season), the Blue Jays have reached 91+ wins only nine times (around 18% of the time). It's hard to win that many games, and the AL East is about as competitive as it's ever been -- although this is mitigated somewhat by the balanced schedule that MLB uses.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#475977) #
What happened in 1991, 92 and 93? What was the buildup? Moves? IMO 2025 is better than 1991.
TamRa - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#475978) #
For me the ALE is made up of tiers. The Yankees and Jays are top shelf, better than the others. Boston is relatively close but a clear underdog IMO. Baltimore should be way better than last year but that still feels more like mid-80's to me.

I'll peg the Jays at 96 wins but such projections could be +/- 5 depending on unpredictable circumstances (like Springer's '25)

Individually...

On Aug. 10 last year Barger had an OPS of .826 - he'll at least match that and likely exceed it this year over the full season and hit 30 homers.

Vlad will indeed carry over his new level of success, and be the odds-on candidate for MVP this season, depending on how the competition preforms.

Kaz will more or less replace Bo's overall contribution with less contact, a bit more power, and a better defensive contribution.

Springer will slack off some but still be about as good as Vlad was in '25 (that is, if you added the two players stats it would be around the same, just with Vlad being the big guy and George as the secondary guy)

Varsho will have his best offensive season but probably not match the power pace we dream on from last year. Clean shot at the second highest HR total though, and thereby assures himself a nine-figure contract that's a little longer than anyone else will be comfortable with.

Cease will have maybe his best season (even numbered year, right?)

At some point Max will miss significant time to injury (bold prediction, right?)

Berrios will be out longer than we've been led to believe.

Yesavage will go through a 4-6 week regression that will have doubters claiming he's been figured out, then regain his momentum and be great down the stretch.

Hoffman will be dominant and show up his doubters including Kevin Barker. I don't see how Miles can stick all year unless he turns out to be as good as Fisher was last year. I'm not sure we ever get a high-quality Garcia back.

Also, when Kasavich gets his chance, he'll thrive. Similarly Macko will define his future in the majors at some point. Tiedemann will live up to the hype, at least for a time (I'm not making long term predictions about his health but when he has a period of health he will be a beast.
scottt - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#475979) #
No one predicted that the season would open with a rain delay in San Francisco.
Katie - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#475980) #
Oddly, of all the predictions here, one of the ones that I agree with most strongly is Kasevich. He's almost certainly the first position player up and has moved past Jimenez on the depth chart if Jimenez doesn't get claimed. I think he comes up and becomes extremely hard to demote.

91 wins, a wild card berth and advancing at least one round in the playoffs.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, March 25 2026 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#475981) #
90-72. wc #1.

Judge strikes out 4 times and the Yankees win 7-0 in San Francisco, cashing leg 1 of a $2 parlay.
uglyone - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#475982) #
97 wins. 1st in the AL.

Offense ticks down a bit, but more than offset in pitching and defense improvement.
Jonny German - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#475987) #
Your 2026 Blue Jays will win 90 regular season games and secure a Wild Card spot. They'll go into the postseason in better shape than their record would indicate thanks to fresh starting pitching, a surging Kazuma Okamoto, and a key bat acquired at the trade deadline. They'll go on to defeat the Chicago Cubs in the World Series.

Team awards:
MVP: Vlad Guerrero
Halladay: Dylan Cease
Delagado: Vlad Guerrero
ROY: Kazuma Okamoto

Debuts: Kazuma Okamoto, Josh Kasevich, RJ Schreck, Brandon Valenzuela, Yohendrick Pinango, Spencer Miles, Adam Macko, Ricky Tiedemann
Jonny German - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#475988) #
This loser said Delagado
92-93 - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#475992) #
It's a good thing no one predicted a rain delay in San Francisco last night because there wasn't one. A beautiful night for baseball.

The Jays will win 92 games and take the division in a hard fought battle with Boston. Judge will finally crumble, as he was wont to do in the past.

Springer and Guerrero will swap OPS+s, which will put Vladdy in the top-3 for MVP. Cease will be top-3 for the CY.

Okamoto, unfortunately, will not replace Bichette's offense or finish top-3 in ROY, and the Jays will scramble for a bat at the deadline.

If I had to make a bold and unlikely prediction, it's that Barger will become the everyday 3B a few months into the season. I hope to be very wrong on Kaz.
Nigel - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#475993) #
I don't know about every day 3B, but I won't be surprised if Okamoto is not a full time player by the end of the year.

I am surprised at the bullishness for Kasevich.
uglyone - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#475995) #
I don’t think the jays will scramble to add a bat at the deadline....i think they fully intend to add a good bat at the deadline after clearly coming short in the free agent sweepstakes.
hypobole - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#475999) #
95 wins, predicated on our 8 starting pitchers being able to cover (or at least close to) 162 games.
Vlad top 5 for AL MVP.

GabrielSyme - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#476002) #
I'm afraid I posted this in the wrong thread, so apologies for the repost, but I hope not to be overlooked when we look back.


I'll put my cards in for a strong season from the Jays : 93-69, but Boston wins the division.

Stepbacks from Gausman and Springer; a breakout for Barger, Varsho has a career-year at the plate but he's merely a good defender. And Scherzer is healthy and effective, though no longer elite - sub-4.00 ERA, 150+ innings.

Oh, and Bichette is mediocre in New York, below-average defensively at 3B and his offensive decline begins.
TamRa - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#476003) #
"Springer will slack off some but still be about as good as Vlad was in '25 (that is, if you added the two players stats it would be around the same, just with Vlad being the big guy and George as the secondary guy)"

I went back and looked closer at this idea. If Vlad hit more or less exactly like Springer did in 2025 (.309/.399/.560 /.959 161) his results would be really close to what he did in 2024 (.323/.396/.544/.940 164) and if Springer hit something similar to what Vlad did in '25 (.292/.381/.467/.848 133) that would be awfully close to his career line through '22 (269/.358/.494/.851 132)

This is coincidental of course but also indicates how entirely reasonable the idea is.

It's also reasonable to suppose that Vlad's a bit better (say .979) and Springer was similarly that much worse (.828) it would be a rational prediction and just as good for the team.
Cracka - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#476008) #
89 wins, and a wild card clinched after sweeping the Reds during the last series of the season. After a good start to the season, there's major drama in May and June as injuries pile up and replacements become regulars. The team falls below .500 and Varsho's name starts to come up in trade talks. Fans become noticeably disinterested once the World Cup starts. The internet panics. By July, the team starts to get healthy and becomes aggressive buyers at the deadline, trading JoJo Parker for pitching help and by September, surges towards a playoff spot.
greenfrog - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#476009) #
The Blue Jays’ main AL East rivals all won their opening day games behind strong starting pitching by Fried, Crochet and Rogers. As others have pointed out, this season is going to be a tough, competitive war of attrition among the top three or four teams in the division.
Nigel - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#476012) #
I know everyone is praising the M’s, but I think the best 4 teams in the AL are in the AL East.
June Northey - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#476014) #
For fun last years predictions are here. I had 92 wins and a division title - yes, I am an optimist. Just don't ask about my predictions from the past.
BlueMonday - Thursday, March 26 2026 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#476016) #
Jays 89 wins and 2nd place to the Red Sox. Cease an ace. Springer gets injured and falls to league average when playing. Hoffman gets replaced as closer with a deadline deal . Bichette gets the Met disease and declines, meaning we saw the pinacle of his career last year.
uglyone - Friday, March 27 2026 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#476018) #
Thanks for the link June. Law had us 77 wins 5th in the ALE. Nice.
scottt - Friday, March 27 2026 @ 02:34 AM EDT (#476019) #
No scoreboard watching until September. The Jays need to get a winning record right away because they are starting against weaker teams. March/April is always very fluky, but good pitching is key as hitters are behind.

As long as they have fun, the hitters will be loose and the hits will come. Count on Vladdy, Earnie and Straw to get the boys pumped.
BlueJayWay - Friday, March 27 2026 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#476021) #
89-73, and they get one of the wild card spots
Magpie - Friday, March 27 2026 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#476027) #
scottt - Friday, March 27 2026 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#476031) #
Jays 90Yankees 89Orioles 88Red Sox 87
Give or take a couple of games...
greenfrog - Friday, March 27 2026 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#476037) #
Oh, and one last prediction (before game time tonight):

Blue Jays WS Champions 2026
bpoz - Friday, March 27 2026 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#476046) #
Great to see the positive predictions!!
2026 Predictions Thread | 54 comments | Create New Account
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