I didn't realize that the Jays were going into BOS. Now I see why they sat Vlad because he needed a hard set date to begin his year in the 2nd half. Now he can easily look back and say he slugged and batted top of he league from June 16 onwards.

I'll predict he finishes the year with 23 HR and an OPS of .810 with 82 RBI and 10 SB.

dalimon5 - is that a serious prediction?

Vlad is currently 9th on the team in terms of OPS (letting Kirk's limited ABs count). His OPS splits by month are:
March/April: 907
May: 623
June: 519
I don't see any kind of positive trend there.

I'm just hoping he doesn't regress further and becomes unplayable..

I suspect Vlad has played through some injuries - the guy hasn't had a real break. Long WS last year, then the WBC where he was the star for the DR, then the regular season started with his $500 mil deal starting this year. Odds are he feels a TON of pressure and it is reflected in the results. He needs a real rest but it is hard to give him one. Hopefully the past few days off will help.

Vladdy is back in the lineup tonight. Lukes and Gimenez get the start vs. a lefty. McAdoo probably shouldn't be on the roster if he doesn't start a game like tonight.

vw - it's half serious. I wrote it because Vlad always destroys in Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium and it will be interesting to see if he can destroy again while appearing to be semi lost at the plate. It was a comment of sarcasm with his awful first half explained by him not playing at Fenway yet.

Anyways, when I started predicting a 2nd half look for Vlad (he has to get better, right?) I just looked at his career numbers and then I started to see that there is kinda no way he can't rebound and put up some big numbers. There just isn't...

Vlad, last year:

Through 6/15 - .274/.375/.414/.790
After 6/15 - .307/.385/.509/.895

92-93 that reminds me to take a peak at the L/R stats...

This year only

vRHP

1. DH Pinango 103pa, 151wrc+
2. C Alejandro 23pa, 145wrc+
3. RF Lukes 112pa, 130wrc+
4. LF Sanchez 187pa, 129wrc+
5. 2B Clement 206pa, 117wrc+
6. 3B Okamoto 218pa, 106wrc+
7. CF Varsho 175pa, 103wrc+
8. 1B Guerrero 224pa, 94wrc+
9. SS Gimenez 181pa, 82wrc+

B. C Valenzuela 106pa, 126wrc+
B. OF Straw 51pa, 102wrc+
B. IF Schneider 43pa, 92wrc+
B. UT Springer 160pa, 72wrc+

X. UT Jimenez 22pa, 115wrc_
X. IF Sosa 72pa, 17wrc+
X. C Heineman 58pa, 17wrc+
X. UT Barger 24pa, 0wrc+
X. UT McAdoo 15pa, -34wrc+


vLHP

1. 1B Guerrero 64pa, 155wrc+
2. 3B Okamoto 69pa, 127wrc+
3. DH Springer 61pa, 125wrc+
4. 2B Clement 81pa, 113wrc+
5. CF Varsho 61pa, 109wrc+
6. C Valenzuela 43pa, 107wrc+
7. LF Straw 73pa, 71wrc+
8. SS Gimenez 62pa, 40wrc+
9. RF Lukes 19pa, 26wrc+

B. C Alejandro 8pa, 68wrc+
B. IF Schneider 52pa, 55wrc+
B. OF Sanchez 25pa, 12wrc+
B. UT Pinango 25pa, -22wrc+

X. UT McAdoo 9pa, 107wrc+
X. IF Sosa 45pa, 51wrc+
X. UT Jimenez 13pa, 25wrc+
X. C Heineman 29pa, 10wrc+
X. UT Barger 4pa, 4wrc+




3 year stats (including this year)

vRHP

1. 1B Guerrero 1303pa, 138wrc+
2. DH Springer 1066pa, 128wrc+
3. LF Sanchez 1031pa, 115wrc+
4. RF Lukes 574pa, 115wrc+
5. C Alejandro 671pa, 107wrc+
6. 3B Okamoto 218pa, 106wrc+
7. 2B Schneider 458pa, 106wrc+
8. CF Varsho 799pa, 103wrc+
9. SS Clement 914pa, 94wrc+

B. C Valenzuela 106pa, 126wrc+
B. UT Barger 625pa, 100wrc+
B. OF Straw 207pa, 92wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 925pa, 86wrc+

X. OF Pinango 103pa, 151wrc+
X. UT Jimenez 277pa, 87wrc+
X. IF Sosa 724pa, 79wrc+
X. C Heineman 190pa, 67wrc+
X. UT McAdoo 15pa, -34wrc+



vLHP

1. 1B Guerrero 362pa, 163wrc+
2. 3B Okamoto 69pa, 127wrc+
3. CF Varsho 221pa, 118wrc+
4. SS Clement 413pa, 114wrc+
5. DH Springer 355pa, 107wrc+
6. C Alejandro 252pa, 105wrc+
7. LF Straw 220pa, 85wrc+
8. RF Lukes 86pa, 77wrc+
9. 2B Schneider 318pa, 73wrc+

B. C Valenzuela 43pa, 107wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 320pa, 53wrc+
B. UT Barger 130pa, 52wrc+
B. OF Sanchez 215pa, 32wrc+

X. C Heineman 87pa, 116wrc+
X. UT McAdoo 9pa, 107wrc+
X. IF Sosa 306pa, 100wrc+
X. UT Jimenez 107pa, 58wrc+
X. OF Pinango 25pa, -22wrc+

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
7m
Shane Bieber will start for the Buffalo Bisons on Wednesday. He’ll be aiming for around 75 pitches.

Bieber will meet up with the Blue Jays on the road later this week to throw his side session. Next steps will be decided after that.


Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
7m
Yimi Garcia (elbow) is scheduled to pitch tonight for the Buffalo Bisons; he’ll meet up with the Blue Jays on the road later this week to determine next steps


Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
7m
Addison Barger (elbow) has progressed to hitting off a Trajekt machine and increased his throwing program out to 150-feet

Hope is he can begin a rehab assignment later this week, per Blue Jays manager John Schneider


Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
7m
Daulton Varsho (wrist) is feeling better and resumed hitting on Tuesday in the batting cages at Fenway Park

He’ll continue to ramp up over the next few days as Blue Jays evaluate his next steps

What jumps out Ugly is that your lead off and 3rd hitter against RHP are your worst or near the bottom. Comparing Vlad's splits vs pitchers I would assume he is chasing sliders away vs RHP.

When platooning Myles Straw (vs RHP) with either Vlad or Springer (vs LHP) would yield better overall results, your best hitters aren't, um, being your best hitters..

Welcome back, Davis.

Fun game - Schneider hitting, Gimenez HR off a LH (go figure), Red Sox 100% unclutch (so nice to see some other team be that way).

The art of earning a save in a 6-1 game.

"The art of earning a save in a 6-1 game."

Seriously too funny because it's true. For as much criticism I have for the manager's use of the bullpen (mostly his use of Hoffman earlier this season and first half of last season), it's now at a point where my criticism falls more on the FO.

It looks like Fluharty and Fischer's arms are about to fall off. I hope that Bieber and Garcia come back and the bullpen gets some much needed rest. Speaking of rest, has anyone seen the Phantom of the ballpark, I mean, SWR? I think he can be a good option to be an elite mop up duty player on this team when fully healthy while providing insurance for Max Scherzer. Miles should be a higher leverage guy and Corbin off the team:


Cease
Gausman
Bieber
Yesavage
Scherzer

SWR - swing
Fischer
Hoffman - high leverage 6/7
Rogers - high leverage 7/8
Fluharty - lefty
Garcia - high leverage 7/8
Varland - highest leverage 8/9

Forgot Miles!


Cease
Gausman
Bieber
Yesavage
Scherzer

SWR - swing
Miles - high leverage 6/7
Hoffman - high leverage 6/7
Rogers - high leverage 7/8
Fluharty - lefty
Garcia - high leverage 7/8
Varland - highest leverage 8/9

Would you remove Fischer from the bullpen or someone else? Assuming you DFA Corbin, Scherzer is able to be a decent 5th starter and Garcia is pitching effectively, I mean.

People love discussing theoretical roster crunches that rarely materialize. Bullpens have 8 arms. B Fischer was great at chess.

I agree that it's quite likely there is an injury or tired arm or something else before this roster crunch emerges, but if it did, I would demote Fisher over DFAing Nance.

Fisher clearly has the manager's trust more than Nance, but their strikeout and walk numbers, and their FIPs, are pretty similar. If the Jays want to keep SWR, given the depth of the bullpen, I think the argument for demoting Fisher, reducing his usage and having him ready for the next vacancy is stronger than likely losing Nance and facing a lack of depth for the next injury, at least in terms of options beyond Macko. I have hopes for Chad Dallas, but I wouldn't want to see him become a mainstay in the bullpen this year.

Schneider's home run last night moved him into a tie for 9th on the team with Vlad. Given that Vlad hit his last home run a month ago, it wouldn't be surprising if he's sitting in 10th all by himself pretty soon.

If he doesn't heat up soon, Kirk has a decent chance to pass him, too.

I disagree Katie - I see no value in Nance - when used in any kind of pressure he seems to collapse. No idea why, as I generally ignore clutch stats but for some reason innings 7-9 he has a 827 OPS against in 69 PA. 1.143 in the 9th (16 PA). But innings 4-6 he is at 391 (32 PA). Lifetime it isn't as extreme (4-6 647 OPS, 7-9 678) but clearly the Jays don't trust him one iota in pressure situations and he shows them why time and time again. At 35 he isn't likely to change.

Thanks Katie and June for some refreshing takes. I'm also moved on Nance but think like Katie that Fischer might get sent down for extended rest to be reused later in the season. Nance might be redundant if Garcia can perform well with his decreased velocity or he might be important of Garcia flunks. Nance's value also will be impacted by SWR's use which is impacted by Scherzer's performance.

It's true there are 8 men in the bullpen so really it's only two guys that would need to go soon for Garcia and Bieber.

This will be a big start for Max tonight.

Guerrero is down to a 100 OPS+. It's surprising that he even has a positive WAR. What a disastrous start to his season. Hopefully he can turn it around in the 2nd half, like Bichette did in 2022. Bo has been red hot the last couple of weeks.

There's a pretty major difference between Fisher and Nance. Fisher can get LHH's out. He crushed LHH's last year and he's been better against them again this year. Nance has pretty traditional splits for his career but in a small sample size this year he's been getting hit hard by LHH's. You need someone other than Fluharty who can be used in the middle innings in leverage situations against LHH's or Fluharty's arm is going to fall off. Fisher's problem recently looks to me to be caused by the fact that he has been overworked in the past 4-5 weeks.

Last night was a good example of one of the pen's issues. Cease was great but he had to throw 108 pitches just to get through 5 innings. Other than Gausman, no one is giving them innings from the starters.

Notwithstanding the two disappointing losses to the NYY I think the team's offensive approach has been excellent the last 4 games. I'm optimistic that the team could go on a bit of a run here.

Nance is a useful middle reliever so can see demoting Fisher to keep Nance around. Jays' bullpen is overworked so don't want to give up relievers if you don't need. Jays have had 4 of the top 12 most used relievers in baseball. Most of that is on the offense not being able to score and starters not going deep but also Schneider being very afraid of blowing games so only trusting a handful of guys. Yesterday, Jays were up 4-0 in the 6th and 6-1 in the 9th and still used Hoffman, Rogers, and Varland. I get it, they're trying to win every game and fans go crazy if top bullpen guys aren't used but the manager needs to think long-term too.

I think Cease can be included along with Gausman as "giving innings" guys. I think his injury has made his average IP look worse than it should as he's struggled the two starts before and two starts after that injury to keep the pitch count down.

Gausman has made 15 starts with 9 of 6 IP or more while Cease has 13 starts with 7 of 6 IP or more. Cease was more or less on par with Gausman up until his injury and still looks like he's battling his lower half. Even still he has 73 IP compared to Gausman's 87 IP and doing it with 2 less starts.

Before his injury he strung along three starts in a row with 7IP before tweaking his leg, pitching in two starts and then going on the DL before coming off and struggling with his control like he did in the two starts before the IL stint.

Scherzer, Yesavage and Corbin have been the culprits for taxing the bullpen lately. Combined they have 130 IP.

Shane Bieber threw 80 pitches for Buffalo this afternoon. He was not sharp, five innings, seven hits, four walks, two home runs, five runs.

You're correct that there isn't much to choose between Cease and Gausman for giving the team innings on the season. On the season Gausman is only averaging about a third of an inning more than Cease (5.8 to 5.5 innings per start). It's interesting to see just how few innings you can expect from your starter these days.

Scherzer to the IL with back spasms, which is another way of saying he has a terminal case of being over 40 — which so many of us know.

Sherzer to the IL with back spasms. Chad Dallas is back up.

Scherzer obviously.

Fisher will be the opener tonight.

Gimenez starts again vs. a lefty with McAdoo on the bench. Springer playing the OF must not be an option either.

SWR and Miles are pretty fresh, so Scherzer going down isn't much of a loss.

Incredibly, there is not enough depth this year.

Bieber looks not so hot and Scherzer is out. Garcia is down 2-3 MPH. Cease is pitching not 100%. Yesavage is struggling to control his pitches. I wonder when we see Bloss up.

Ricky Tiedeman struck out 2 over an inning yesterday. Jake Bloss struck out 6 over 4.1 IP.

Bloss remaining in Dunedin makes me think he's trade bait.

Scherzer's daughter can put "scammed the Blue Jays out of $3 million" on her resume if she ever tries to get a job at a sports agency. 

They really should get some run out of SWR tonight, or what is even the point of keeping him around. Personally, I'd start him. You have to find out if using a roster spot on him has ANY value.

I may be in the minority but I don't think Scherzer was brought in exclusively for his on field play. When the Blue Jays signed him they had Cease, Gausman, Berrios, Lauer, Yesavage and Ponce with Bieber returning later in the season. I think he was brought in to be a mentor and likely there's a deal in place for him to join the front office or coaching staff.

I don't think anybody will be remorseful towards Scherzer's daughter or the 1% of the team salary her dad took.

The trick is not to have arms fall off in the pen - right now we have 5 guys with 30+ IP (Varland-Miles*-Rogers-Fisher-Hoffman), 2 more in the 20's (Nance & Fluharty who has 28 1/3 IP in 38 games). 5 guys with over 30 games in the pen led by Fluharty's 38. I put an * by Miles as he was effectively a starter who was not getting the 1st inning. I hate openers. In MLB there are 10 guys with 35+ appearances, 4 are Jays (Fluharty-Fisher-Rogers-Varland). The A's have 2 guys, just 1 per club otherwise. Hoffman at 34 is close.

No matter how one cuts it that pen has been pushed HARD. Garcia in theory will eat some of those innings as #6 but who goes? The pen is Varland-Rogers-Fisher-Fluharty-Hoffman-Miles-SWR-Nance. Nance has to be first to go IMO if someone is cut. Wondering if they are debating SWR being cut (but they need his innings with Scherzer IL'ed again). Oy. Guess injuries just keep on happening.

"Bloss remaining in Dunedin makes me think he's trade bait."

Bloss is in NH. And other than one mistake was fine in his first appearance there. My guess is he'll be back in AAA when all the veteran rehabbing is done.

Agreed dalimon5 - the Jays knew Scherzer's real value is as a role model for the younger pitchers. He adds some if he gets fully healthy for the playoffs too - at his age he needs that playoff pressure to get to max effort/results on the field. I expected he'd be bouncing IL/pitch a few games/IL/etc. all season. I suspect the Jays did too with his contract being mostly incentives for innings iirc.

It is an interesting year. If SWR can follow up with a few good outings it wouldn't shock me if he becomes a key part of the rotation going forward. Corbin and SWR in our rotation was NOT on my bingo card!

Nance has a decent slider.
The fastball is average and lacks command.
The curveball has great shape but is not very repeatable.
Against lefties, he's vulnerable to hanging a curve or missing with the fastball.

Fisher has a funky delivery. 
He also has good command but he mostly through his pitches glove sides.
Both his breaking balls have very little lateral movement.
He's been good against lefties but throws inside a lot to them. 
That can be risky. 

Neither throw hard.
Both have K rates around 26% and walk rates around 10%.
Against RHB, Fisher is 64% slider, Nance, 49%.
Against LHB, Fisher is 39% curve, Nance, 50%.
Fisher has limited the hard hits to 39% but 12% have found the barrel.
Nance's hard hit is below 36% and his barrel rate is around 6%.

Tamra you're right. The article I read had some older screenshots of Bloss' Dunedin starts.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/mlb/jake-bloss-tosses-four-scoreless-innings-in-latest-rehab-start-in-dunedin/ar-AA24ZGoA?uxmode=ruby&apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1

Tyler Heinemann traded to the Angels for cash. I am surprised there is no prospect coming back.

I'm not. Defense-only catchers just aren't that valuable especially with no options and not pre-arbitration/

Davis Schneider looking like a different guy again. His swing looks aggressive and right on time.

Trying to pull everything which works well at Fenway.

Haven’t seen a lefty this bad at holding runners since the days of Lester. Never mind throwing over, he’s not even glancing at second base.

There's value in Heineman going to the other league.
Hopefully he stays there.

As we know, when Davis Schneider gets cold, he gets ice cold. But when he gets hot, well "en fuego" captures it pretty well.  He can carry a team for a while, and they can use someone like that right now.

Jays should just send Schnieder to AAA to start the year and then bring him up after a week. Avoid the whole struggling thing.

With a LHP starting, why not Springer in RF, and Valenzuela at DH (or Valenzuela at C and Kirk at DH)? Sanchez is awful against LHP, and Valenzuela is the team leader in wRC+ and fWAR. If they are going to use him as a strict backup, meaning 2-3 days a week, then I'm not sure that's the smart play given how he's performed. He's found money and it doesn't look like a fluke. Lean into it.

I don’t love watching Sanchez flail against LH either, though I figure it’s John Schneider thinking he doesn’t want to give his normally starting player three straight days off (it’s not like you want to bring him in for defence either).

Agree that there are much more creative ways to get Valenzuela in the lineup, no question.

Not sure facing a lefty is better than a day off.
Maybe Springer is heating up and don't want to distract him with playing defense. Also, they wouldn't pitch hit for Springer.

Nice game. Pitching, defense, small ball.

Just so much fun to watch right now - pitching, hitting both going well. Kids doing well on the club so I see lots of hope for 2027.

I was expecting them to use Dallas and option him back before tomorrow. Pretty thin pen for Yesavage in game 3.

Rogers and Varland and pray for rain.

Considering they don't start McAdoo vs. LHP, the Jays could have easily kept Heineman around.

Gimenez has been great in those games.
McAdoo is heading back to Buffalo sooner than later.

Varland looks more like Jessie Litsch out there (baby face) than Henke, but the results have been straight up Terminator..

Red Sox 1 for 24 with RISP in the 2 games.

My guess is they did Heineman a favour by trading him to LA and thought a flier on a low A arm was okay to sacrifice.

Santander starting a comeback.

"needs a full spring training ramp up"

"possible" august return.

I've still got faith in "Tony Taters."

I see Vlad's homer has stunned everyone into silence!

Given how long it has been since Santander was an effective player, the club would be wisest to treat any return as subject to him dominating minor league competition.  His contract is sunk cost.  

Last 30 days:

RF Sanchez 66pa, 162wrc+
2B Schneider 23pa, 161wrc+
CF Lukes 80pa, 147wrc+
C Valenzuela 68pa, 144wrc+
SS Clement 108pa, 129wrc+
DH Springer 110pa, 115wrc+
LF Pinango 75pa, 109wrc+
3B Okamoto 106pa, 102wrc+
1B Guerrero 98pa, 92wrc+

C Kirk 17pa, 98wrc+
OF Varsho 62pa, 90wrc+
IF Gimenez 90pa, 81wrc+
OF Straw 47pa, 32wrc+

C Heineman 20pa, 77wrc+
IF McAdoo 24pa, 19wrc+
IF Sosa 15pa, -10wrc+

Team: 107wrc+ (#12)


Last 14 days

2B Schneider 14pa, 285wrc+
C Valenzuela 25pa, 201wrc+
RF Sanchez 28pa, 169wrc+
SS Gimenez 38pa, 143wrc+
DH Springer 51pa, 141wrc+
CF Varsho 2pa, 123wrc+
3B Okamoto 49pa, 115wrc+
LF Pinango 31pa, 110wrc+
1B Lukes 46pa, 104wrc+

C Kirk 17pa, 98wrc+
IF Clement 52pa, 90wrc+
OF Straw 31pa, 75wrc+
UT Guerrero 43pa, 43wrc+

C Heineman 7pa, 94wrc+
IF McAdoo 16pa, -40wrc+

Team: 113wrc+ (#12)

Sunk cost just like Miles Straw, Blad Guerrero and George Springer. I loathe the day where my team has the best contracts in baseball with no "sunk" costs and never makes a serious run.

It's refreshing when it's the other team handing out free outs.

Mr Yesavage looks quite nasty today.

That’s irritating.

The inevitable result of using your best reliever up 5 and 3 runs to lock down wins.

I'm not going to fault the manager. The kid was in full control, very low pitch count and bottom 3rd of the line up coming up to start the 8th inning. I'd be frustrated if the manager didn't leave him in.

Yesavage’s numbers 3rd time through and after 75-80 pitches are scary bad this year. They are bad for most starters but Yesavage’s are really scary. Small sample size but something to watch as the year goes along. Too bad because he was otherwise fabulous today.

what an absolutely epic at bat by valenzuela.

Gotta love Fenway. That winning hit from Valenzuela had an xBA of .010.

Valenzuela is the only hitter in todays lineup with an OPS over 800.

The Heineman move has already paid off.

"Gotta love Fenway. That winning hit from Valenzuela had an xBA of .010."

The tying homerun was a homerun in exactly 1 of 30 mlb parks!

I second the support of leaving Yesavage in. He was doing well and had few pitches pitched and they'd used some of the higher leverage guys recently so all signs point to leaving him in. The back-to-back HR was an unfortunate result, but I think the decision was the correct one despite the bad outcome.

A nice series for the Jays, hopefully all the guys who hit HR can use that momentum moving forward!

Id even go further - i like the aggressive bullpen usage the 1st 2gms and then just figuring out gm3 as it comes.

Not a fan of being too clever and letting winnable games slop away to try to 'save' relievers for later games they might have a chance to win maybe.

"Not a fan of being too clever and letting winnable games slop away to try to 'save' relievers for later games they might have a chance to win maybe."

I think there's a balance. Jays don't have a lot of blowouts and their top relievers have all been used very heavily so "making sure you win games your ahead" mentality will end up costing you long-term.

Let's all remember that this team has been running out some version of a three and a half man rotation for half the season. With Bieber returning it should help the bullpen immensely.

It's more about the pitch count than the number of outs.
Fluharty got a 5 pitch save yesterday. Hoffman threw 25 pitches the day before.

An average inning is supposed to be 15 pitches, but it tends to be more for strike out relievers.
Varland got a save on 10 pitches Wednesday and a 4-out save on 19 pitches Tuesday. 
Fisher threw 21 pitches getting 4 outs when he opened and 24 pitches on the loss on Sunday.

Miles threw 22 pitches on Wednesday. SWR threw 55.

If they keep SWR, they will probably start using Miles on shorter outings.
For now, it looks like Dallas is the long man until  Bieber starts Monday.

When you use your best relievers up 4 and 5 runs, it almost inevitably means they can't be used in a tight game within the next few days. Personally I'd rather see them go to a different reliever with a 99.1% win expectancy, but to each their own.

And yes, perhaps Yesavage gets left in for the first HR (unlikely), but there is no way that Schneider leaves him in a 3-2 game in the 8th inning if he had his top arms available.

Schneider gets the start at second base today.  Clement had a rough series in Boston chasing pitches up and out of the zone and missing. Maybe a day off will help him, and good to get Schneider the work.  

Although the run totals haven't necessarily reflected it, I think the past 6 games are the best (1 through 9) the team's offensive approach has looked all season. I'm pretty optimistic about things if they keep this up. Clement was the obvious exception for most of that stretch. History suggests that after the heater that Clement went on, he's likely to follow with a pretty slow stretch (he's been very streaky the past two plus years). Thumbs up to getting Schneider in at 2B.

Fisher and Fluharty have looked pretty gassed to me over the last couple of weeks. They really need another middle inning leverage arm - maybe Miles can be that arm once Bieber comes back. In the interim, I'd lean on Nance a bit more.