Somehow I got stuck
Between the rock and the hard place
And I'm down on my luck
Now I'm hiding in Honduras
I'm a desperate man

The Blue Jays were already safely in Baltimore when Hurricane Jeanne struck Tampa, so both the Jays and Rays will finish 2004 one game short of the regular 162. In Toronto's case, that's good news and bad news. On the plus side, it's one less potential loss in this brutal campaign; on the other, it means there are no more head-to-head games with Tampa Bay, hamstringing the team's effort to escape 5th and last place in the American League East. Wow, that's a depressing thing to write.

Many fans were getting tired of finishing third behind the Yankees and Red Sox. And they got their wish - Toronto won't finish 3rd; Baltimore will get that honour.

Last year the Orioles restocked their lineup with three big acquisitions - Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez and Rafael Palmeiro. As group they've done almost as well as could be expected, and yet it wasn't enough to get the O's to .500.

Just 6 more games after tonight.

The Jays start their final road series of the season tonight, as they face an Orioles team that has recently been exuding confidence on the field but angst off the field, as Peter Angelos & Co. fret about the increasingly likely probability that the Expos will take up residence in nearby Washington in the very near future.

This week's Scout features plenty of D.C. talk, a surging pitching staff and its scuffling supposed ace, a cagey veteran making a difference and a Oriole regular who -- thankfully -- has turned down The Bachelor and its unique nether region of reality-TV hell.

On to the Advance Scout!

Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn -
world serves its own needs, don't misserve your own needs. Feed it up a knock,
speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height,
down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for
hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry with the furies
breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered
crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population,
common group, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its
own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
light, feeling pretty psyched.

It's dark
The jungle is your head
Can't rule your heart
I'm feeling so much stronger
Than I thought

... is 4th place.

At the dawn of the 2004 season, Lou Piniella said there was no way his Rays would finish last. Will they? Tune in at 6:15 ET for the next installment of the battle for the basement.

There's too many of you crying
Brother, brother, brother
There's far too many of you dying
You know we've got to find a way
To bring some lovin' here today - Ya

Thanks to a comeback victory in New York and a Devil Ray loss in a make-up game, the Jays can climb out of 5th tonight with a win.

Here are the updated "Draft Bowl" standings:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks 47-106 .307 ___
2. Kansas City Royals 56-96 .368 9.5
3. Seattle Mariners 58-94 .382 11.5
4. Milwaukee Brewers 63-88 .417 17.0
5. Washington "Expos"  64-89 .418 17.0
6. Toronto Blue Jays 64-88 .421 17.5
7. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 64-87 .424 18.0
8. New York Mets 67-86 .438 20.0
9. Colorado Rockies 67-85 .441 20.5
10.  Pittsburgh Pirates 68-84 .447 21.5

Arizona's "Upton number" is 1 - they have clinched a tie for first pick overall.

Only time for a brief Scout report today, as the Jays pay their final visit of the year to St. Petersburg.

Old friend Mark "Lurch" Hendrickson gets the ball tonight in place of the nicked-up Scott Kazmir. Lurch went two innings on Tuesday in getting the win in relief, so he'll likely be on a short pitch count. Sunday's game will feature Gustavo Chacin's attempt to raise his 2004 record to an amazing 21-2 when combining his New Hampshire, Syracuse and Toronto efforts.

On to the Advance Scout!

Last year, I presented a theoretical model as to the talent distribution in MLB (actually, the world, too).

Can we figure out what it actually is, and can we use that to figure out the replacement level?

Here are my quick thoughts on the matter...

Clay Davenport discusses Regression Towards the Mean, as it applies to a team's true talent level. My heart was sent aflutter. There is no more important topic on analyzing baseball performance numbers than sample size and regression towards the mean.

It's a great stab by Clay, but he goes slightly wrong. Here's an "open letter" to Clay that I hope will foster additional discussions among readers.

Now is the place where the crossroads meet.
Will you look into the future?

This is the first in a series of reviews of the farm affiliates' 2004 seasons. In the series, the focus will be mainly on the teams, as Jordan will be preparing his top 30 prospect summary shortly with details on most of the guys you want to know about.

With no Jays game today, I thought I'd start a playoff catch-all thread.

If anyone is interested in participating in a Japanese Baseball (NPB) fantasy or roto league for next season, post your contact details (i.e. name and e-mail) here. If there's enough interest, we'll set up a format in November/December and draft via e-mail after Christmas.

I'll check this thread again at the end of October. I'd say that eight people ought to be enough, if we get more than 10 or so we may need to go to two divisions (there's only 12 teams in NPB, soon to be 11!).