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Something has to inspire the Jays' slumping starter. He's been absolutely awful recently -- 0-2 with a 14.54 ERA in July, 2-5 and 9.20 over his last eight starts -- and the Red Sox love hitting against him. Cory’s allowed a .354 AVG in two outings against them this year, and is 1-2, 7.12 in five career starts and five relief appearances vs. Boston. Bill Mueller, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are a combined 10-for-16 off Lidle in 2003; Manny’s 6-for-12 lifetime.

Cory is well aware that his career record prior to this year was 5-15, 5.17 in the first half, and 20-7, 2.92 after the break -- could that knowledge restore his missing confidence? He also watched Doc and Kelvim shut down the BoSox the last two nights, so there's at least a chance he'll follow suit.

Ramiro Mendoza’s a perfect 2-0 (allowing just one earned run) since returning from the DL; he’s gone five strong innings each time, beating the Yankees and Jays. Carlos Tosca keeps inventing new lineups, and I like what he's done tonight. Of course, Vernon Wells is back, and he's gone deep twice, doubled and driven in six runs off Mendoza in just six AB this year. Mike Bordick is 5-for-13 lifetime against the righty, the shaky-fielding Chris Woodward just 1-for-5, so who would you play at short? Howie Clark is the DH, batting second, with Bobby Kielty in the 5-hole and Tom Wilson (2-for-3 off Mendoza) hitting sixth. I have a hunch that the Jays, in a positive frame of mind, will score a few runs, so if Lidle does find his groove, it could be another good game.
The CBL is shutting down for the year, with plans to re-emerge in 2004. You can read the full details from the CBC. The league will shut down following the All-Star game on July 23 in Calgary.
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According to the advance box score on Yahoo (usually posted shortly after the lineups are set, and accurate all year, except for last-minute changes) Bobby Kielty is batting third and Vernon Wells gets a very rare night off. Jayson Werth is playing CF and batting ninth. Mike Bordick is back after 11 days off on a personal matter, hitting seventh and playing shortstop.

The lineup juggling could be a response to Tim Wakefield being on the mound. V-Dub has just four singles in 17 career AB against the knuckleballer; Woodward is a mere 2-for-11. Bordick, Myers, Delgado, Hinske and Catalanotto have fared well in previous meetings, although nobody really teed off the last time the Jays faced Wakefield, ten days ago at the Dome. He lasted seven innings, allowing just one run and striking out seven.

It's the enigmatic Kelvim Escobar for the good guys. "Rested Kelvim," as Mike D called him, had one of his patented brain cramps -- more like a spasm -- when asked to face the Yankees on three days' rest in his latest. That's the only really horrible start he's made since being banished from the bullpen for inconsistency. He went seven solid innings, allowing three earned runs, four nights earlier vs. the Red Sox, so if he's not distracted by the trade rumours, he could get back in the groove. Two talented but unpredictable pitchers, plenty of hitting talent on both sides -- anything could happen tonight.
In The Pitch, a Kansas City weekly, Andrew Miller recounts a trip to the ballpark with Bill James. If you want plenty of background and personal stuff, you'll enjoy this.

There's also an interesting recent piece by Ben McGrath in the New Yorker :

To some, he’s a philosopher-hero who brought baseball out of the Dark Ages; others consider him a calculator-punching pedant with too much time on his hands. The once proud and conservative Red Sox, by hiring James to be their Senior Baseball Operations Adviser, have joined the ranks of those teams—such as the Oakland A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays—which are now emphasizing the principles of “sabermetrics” as an alternative to the steadfast reliance on weather-beaten scouts with radar guns, hunches, and cigars.

McGrath suggests that the public is witnessing only part of the management revolution in the game.

“What I’m trying to do is to create ways to think about the real problems of baseball front offices in an organized way,” James had told me earlier in the spring. “I’ve actually had some really interesting insights into the game and developed some very interesting methods in the few months that I’ve worked for the Red Sox, and it’s very frustrating not to be able to discuss them with the public.”

I'm sure similar innovations are being adopted in Toronto; proprietary stats and methods of analysis that the Jays would never share with their competitors. As fans, the ZLC may be "enlightened," but we're still very much in the dark.

Today, we have a special guest on Batter's Box, as a longtime reader and friend, Aaron Gleeman of Aaron's Baseball Blog (the finest one-man baseball website in existence) graces us with his views of the Stewart-Kielty trade. This article is reprinted from Aaron's blog.

Thanks Aaron, we hope you're back often.
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Roy Halladay hasn't lost in a long, long time -- 18 starts, to be exact. That 13-0 streak includes three no-decisions against these Red Sox, none more frustrating than last week's 9-inning, one-run heartbreaker. Derek Lowe has a 6.61 ERA this year in three games against the Jays, who are hitting a mere .365 as a team against him. The math seems easy enough. It's always a treat to watch Doc operate, and though I'm not as optimistic about the rest of this series, it's good to begin on a winning note.

Bobby Kielty will hit sixth, as I hoped. If Embree (or any lefty reliever) is brought in to face Delgado, Tosca can bat Wilson for Myers and turn Bobby around to his more dangerous side.

Just wondering if anyone's heard -- will Hendrickson be recalled to start against the Yankees? If they bring Doc back Monday on short rest (which hasn't backfired yet) then Tuesday, it's either Lurch, Wasdin on short rest in Yankee Stadium (yikes!) or "Charlie Wholestaff" -- Thurman, Kershner and company. The Jays don't have an off day until the 28th (and only two in the next month) so they will need at least a 4.5 man rotation.
A couple of interesting pieces about Barry Bonds and his recent comments surrounding Babe Ruth.

First, Bonds's comments.

Next, a piece commenting on the comments.

Finally, an article by Ray Ratto, a humorous fellow with a snappy keyboard who writes for both ESPN.com and the San Francisco Chronicle.

I offer no words of my own. My motto is one of Fox News's: "We report. You decide."
Everything is coming together, it seems, for the Red Sox. David Ortiz has won the DH job, and he's flourished. The bullpen's roles have solidified, and they've flourished. Johnny Damon's been dropped in the order, and he's played better with less pressure. Can the Jays take them down a notch with a big weekend?

It'll be tough, and trotting out John Wasdin in the very ballpark where he earned his infamous nickname seems almost gratuitous. Similarly, Pedro Martinez against Kelvim Escobar (we'll call this edition "Rested Kelvim") will obviously also be a tough matchup. But I do like Halladay and Lowe this evening, provided the hitting switch can be flipped back on.

Meanwhile, the Jays get to trot out their shiny new outfielder/DH this weekend. It'll be interesting to see Carlos Tosca's lineup construction over the weekend.

On to the Advance Scout!
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Here's a thread I've been wanting to start for some time: what are your favourite baseball books? (Other than Baseball Prospectus, Moneyball, and the Bill James collection, of course.)
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The players and managers cared about the outcome in an exciting All-Star Game. The Toronto dynamic duo made us proud, contributing with their bats and their gloves, and Doc got to watch, so it couldn't have been much better for Jays fans. A Myers pinch-hit single would have been nice.

From Richard Griffin's column in the Star:

"It was almost like watching a regular-season game in terms of managerial strategies and intensity of players. The new slogan for the All-Star Game, "This Time it Counts," seemed appropriate in the comeback victory for the American League."

This is better than alternating years, or a coin flip. Bud got one right, I was wrong. The players took it more seriously than I expected, and the unwritten rules about using your roster have been modified. His manager should be co-MVP for leaving him in there, but Garret Anderson's pretty good, eh?
As detailed in this article, the Blue Jays have traded Shannon Stewart and a PTBNL to the Twins for Bobby Kielty.
Laments Jim Caple on ESPN's Page Two.. Caple and Eric Neel are doing a tour of all the major league ballparks (lucky stiffs) and awarding points as they go.

Skydome gets 66 (better than the Big O at 49 but a way behind Pac Bells 91). Though many of the points seem to be awarded due to the close proximity of Hooters and a bizarre love of 'Lets go Blue Jays'.

The overall assessment ' a pretty decent place to watch a game'.
Rickey Henderson, who was recently named MVP of the Atlantic League's All-Star Game, is back in MLB after signing with the Dodgers.

Rickey's back!
In case anyone is interested, Rob Neyer today will be on Seattle's public radio station, KUOW, at about 5:00 p.m. Toronto time. He'll be discussing his latest book (of course) and the evolution of the Mariners, among other topics.

I'm not 100 percent sure you can listen on-line, but I'm darn close to being 100 percent sure, which is darn more reliable than some darn people have been lately.

Here's the link.
About 2 weeks ago, I posted mid-season park factors, adjusted for road park. Here I will present current factors calculated using the same method, as well as Offensive and Defensice rankings based on park-adjusted runs per inning.

I recommend that a park factor composed of 70% 2003 and 30% 2002 be used to evaluate a player's offensive or a pitcher's defensive contributions. Nevertheless, only the 2003 park factors were used to derive the team offence and defence rankings.

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