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An interesting article showed up in my Inbox anonymously (the sender forgot to add an identifying message). The story, published yesterday by UPI out of Los Angeles, takes a closer look at the whole "White Jays" controversy and the evolving nature of organizational decision-making viewed from a race-based standpoint. The story has more than a few holes, but it does make a lot of good points, including the fact (as we've already discussed here) that Jackie Robinson was the perfect sabrmetric player. It's worth a read, and I'd be interested in people's comments.



I'm still bothered, generally, by the prevailing sense that Latin players don't have the "plate discipline" that white players do. Not only does this raise unfortunate implications -- "plate discipline" is a term loaded with moral subtexts, and suggests Hispanics don't have the moral fibre to be patient and exercise good judgment -- but I also think it's convoluted logic. Maybe Hispanics do say "You cannot walk to the US" -- but that's probably because the US scouts haven't been looking for a good batting eye these past 30 years so much as for the "raw physical tools" that still entrance so many old-time baseball men. Are Latin Americans inherently less capable than whites of waiting for a pitch they can drive? I don't buy it.

Latin Americans, I suspect, are smart and talented enough to develop the skill sets that will get them employed, same as anyone else. Hispanic players may have lower overall walk rates than white players -- but I'd love to see those figures broken down by age and overall productivity. I'll betcha the younger and better Latin players have walk rates more or less identicial to the younger and better white players. The more Beanes and Ricciardis who come into the game, the more that strike-zone expertise will become a valuable commodity among scouts and in determining draft position -- and the more that young players of all shades will develop the skills they need to succeed.
White Jays Redux | 15 comments | Create New Account
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_Ken - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#96547) #
great read

very well researched and totally agree with the author except for the bit about not being able to teach plate discipline. I believe that is a trait that can be taught.

totally agree with your point aswell Jordan, and it could explain alot, now that perhaps the baseball world is becoming more aware of the importance of plate discipline we will see more latin and carribean-born players who have better walk totals.
Ironincally this may undermine my belief that plate discipline can be taught, maybe it is something thats baseball instinct and scouts outside of the US are just not looking for it.
_pete_the_donkey - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#96548) #
I'll say this - it's great to see other writers across North America slamming Richard Griffin as ignorant.
Dave Till - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#96549) #
Two minor quibbles:

For example, in 1984, Toronto's speedy Dominican shortstop Alfredo Griffin walked four times in 140 games ... and made the All Star Game.

Griffin only made the All-Star game as an emergency last-minute replacement - and that only because he was already in town as Damaso Garcia's guest. He wasn't a legitimate All-Star that year.

Mondesi is the model of the fabulous athlete with all five of the standard tools. Yet, Mondesi lacks that critical sixth -- the ability to refrain from swinging at bad pitches.

Mondesi actually has had some years in which he drew walks: he drew 71 walks in 1999, and 73 walks in 2001. Oddly enough, the years in which he drew walks were the years in which his batting average was down.
_Bill James - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#96550) #
I don't think it can be scientificly proven that I am a maverick statistics aficionado.
_Melvin Mora - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#96551) #
If you can't learn patience in the big leagues then how did Sammy go from 45/36 (BB/HR) to 73/66?
Gitz - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#96552) #
Something that has always seemed odd to me is why so many catchers, be then Mexican, Portugese, Italian, French, etc., have such a lousy command of the strike zone when they're hitting. Intuitively, you'd think that these would be the hitters who would have the most command, yet it's highly likely to be the other way around: catchers are the biggest hackers around.

Or maybe I'm just nuts. Or maybe Robert will do another entry and title it "Gizzi was right: catchers do have the worst batting eyes." Now that would be the Best Title Ever.
_lurker - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#96553) #
It is odd that just two paragraphs after the author contends that sabermetricians have proven that plate discipline can't be taught -- "you either have it or you don't" -- he uses Sosa as an example that young Latino players should look to for a role model as a player who increased his plate discipline.

I find it hard to believe that there is ANY skill that can't be improved. Maybe you can't make everybody take 75 walks per year, but if a guy is good enough to recognize a pitch, I'm sure with the right motivation he can be taught to lay off pitches out of the zone. As the track coaches like to say, "I can't make anyone fast, but I can make everyone faster."

I guess the main point is that by focusing on certain skills, you necessarily will have a disparate impact on the ethnic/cultural diversity of teams because certain ethnic/cultural groups inherently possess those skills to a greater degree than others.

First, of course, the question is whether certain ethnic/cultural groups really do inherently possess those skills. I think we're a long way from proving that. (Although with respect to Latino players, I wonder if the correlation discussed with respect to the Babe might not hold true for Latinos; is it possible that foreign-born Latinos have generally smaller frames/builds, meaning they don't have the power threat that causes pitchers to nibble, decreasing their chance of walking in a particular PA?)

Second, should we care? Provided that this focus on certain skills isn't motivated by race, what do we care if it has the claimed effect? We seem to accept without hesitation the belief held by NBA GMs that athleticism is a desired trait, and the result seems to be that African-American players dominate the NBA. Nobody seems to be bothered by the NBA's lack of diversity. The NHL? Do I even need to mention that the ability to skate on ice is a desired trait, which is possessed to a greater degree by people living in cold climates, which are largely Northern Europeans and North Americans, who are primarily white?

To me, rather than being an issue to be explored and countered, this should fall into the category of: "Huh. That's interesting." And then move on. Something akin to the discovery that taller pitchers are generally more effective because their release point is closer to the plate, so teams are stockpiling tall pitchers.
_Jordan - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#96554) #
I swear that I hadn't read the Michael Lewis story in the Star today when I posted the comments at the start of the thread. This is what Lewis says:

"I'd be very uncomfortable saying that black or Latin players had less ability to be patient at the plate. The reason they say you don't walk off the island is (when Dominicans were first signed) they felt they were giving the scouts what they wanted. A culture of (Latin) baseball arose in response to the scouts looking for guys who hit that way. But, say, if everybody in theory was looking for on-base percentage, I'm sure those signals would go in and then you could walk off the island."

Either great minds think alike or fools seldom differ; problem is, I'm not the first and Lewis isn't the second.
_Jon Miller - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#96555) #
No one seems to mention the education factor - a player is much more likely to have read Bill James if he comes from an affluent, book-owning family that prizes education. Also, speaking English would help, yes? I doubt Juan Uribe, for example, has ever read James. And I'm not questioning Uribe's intelligence here - the man can't speak a lick of English and has shown a reluctance to study the language. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Adam Dunn read James as a geeky monster baseball boy, and I'm pretty sure that Kevin Youkillis guy has read James by now. Walks vs. BA is one hallmark of the sabermetricians. So is the preference for college boys. College boys buy a lot of books and are surrounded by older people telling them they should read and learn from books. Is it a coincidence that the sabermetric GMs are finding new-school, patient rakers on North American college teams, which are well-stocked with English-speaking, well-educated, and book-owning prospects?
_Jon Miller - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#96556) #
One more thing. American boys in the 80s and 90s were a lot more likely to play Strat-O-Matic baseball. Has anyone done a study of which GMs and players were Strat geeks? Anecdotal evidence suggests to me (a former Strat buff who notes these things when they are mentioned) that this is a common thread in the background of saberheads. Anyone who plays a few hundred games of competitive Strat will learn the value of OBP - back in 1982, for example, I was using a self-made probability chart (the "7" slot is worth this many percentage points, etc.) to calculate the percent chance a player's card would deliver a favorable outcome. This "Strat OBP" was not always so close to the performance the card the was designed to "reproduce," so a serious Strat player could develop a big competitive edge by knowing which player cards were more valuable, and which were less valuable, than the stats on the front would suggest.

Strat-O-Matic is another part of the pro-OBP baseball culture which North American college boys are probably more likely to know than, say, Juan Uribe, who, to keep milking this comparison, comes from very poor extended family & uses his ML-minimum salary to support something like two dozen people.
Craig B - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#96557) #
back in 1982, for example, I was using a self-made probability chart (the "7" slot is worth this many percentage points, etc.) to calculate the percent chance a player's card would deliver a favorable outcome.

I actually wrote it on all the cards I used... number codes for OBPs and HRs.
_Jordan - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#96558) #
It's funny, a friend of mine in our Strato League did this in the mid-'80s ... he'd break down all the hits and walks on each card (left- and right-sides both), isolate the power, even added up all the gb(A)s to see if a player was particularly prone to double plays. He didn't win the championship -- that honour usually went to the least baseball-savvy yet luckiest guy in the league -- but he ended up with an engineering degree and a lucrative career in the high-tech communications industry. So you see, sabrmetrics pays!
_Mick - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#96559) #
I have given up roto ball this year -- probably for good -- but if there are ZLCers out there would like to talk about starting up a historical Strat league through TSN.com, I would be way into that.

Not meant to compete with the ongoing BFFL of course.
_Jabonoso - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#96560) #
This is survival of the fittest all the way. Education is a big factor Jon no doubt. Yesterday somebody mentioned JP's ability to read into his players minds. For sure he is more literate to read New England players more than the Venezuelan ones. Back in the sixties latino players were glove specialists ( Mendoza anyone? ) and they are selected by some criterion before you met them. Durazo is a good example that you can learn some patience, not long ago he was a young slugger back in Mexico, then his wrist were about to impede a career up there, but getting a base on balls and someone to pay for it, keeps him waiting for his health back and some long balls to be racked again...
If someone pay big dollars for the next Mondesi, there will be one.
And if you are looking for the next Durazo there will be plenty...
Gitz - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#96561) #
The next Durazo? I'm still waiting for the first Durazo to show up!
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