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Bauxite zeppelinkm has prepared a Data Table that examines this  year's work by Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, with particular focus on the Quality of the Opposition. I'm just the middle-man!

Cliff Lee Starts                
Team    Opposition W Pct.    Average R/G OPP    Opponent Starter    ERA+ of Opp Starter
Oakland    .458 3.94    Blanton    86
Oakland    .458 3.94    Gaudin    107
Min    .545 5.07    Liriano    124
KC    .430 4.11    Bannister    81
Seattle    .394 4.18    Washburn    88
NYY    .531 4.85    Wang    105
TOR    .535 4.44    Marcum    125
Cin    .448    4.36    Volquez    144
Texas    .486    5.47    Feldman    85
KC    .430    4.11    Meche     113
Texas    .486    5.47    Ponson     84
Det    .483    5.04    Willis     42
SD    .385    3.87    Baek    74
LAD    .510    4.22    Kershaw     98
SF    .437    3.92    Cain    114
CWS    .563    5.06    Danks    132
Min    .545    5.07    Perkins    101
TB    .603    4.67    Shields    118
Seattle    .394    4.18    Silva    63
Min    .545    5.07    Hernandez    68
Det    .483    5.04    Robertson    69
TB    .603    4.67    Garza    118
TOR    .535    4.44    Richmond    84
LAA    .606    4.63    Weaver    98
KC    .430    4.11    Greinke    122
Det    .483    5.04    Lambert    65
CWS    .563    5.06    Richard    71
KC    .430    4.11    Greinke    122

Averages    .429    4.58        96.5

    11 starts against 500 teams           
    16 starts against sub 500           
And here's the Good Doctor:
Doc Starts                
Team    Opposition W Pct.    Average R/G OPP    Opponent Starter    ERA+ of Opp Starter
NYY    .531    4.85    Wang    105
Bos    .592    5.33    Beckett    108
Texas    .486    5.47    Mendoza    52
Texas    .486    5.47    Padilla    87
TB    .603    4.67    Hammel    92
Bos    .592    5.33    Lester    134
CWS    .563    5.06    Contreras     100
Cle    .489    4.85    Sabathia    158
Min    .545    5.07    Bonser    68
KC    .430    4.11    Greinke     122
Oak    .458    3.94    Harden    212
NYY    .531    4.85    Chamberlain     125
Bal    .447    5.04    Liz    56
CHC    .601    5.38    Marquis    103
Pit    .423    4.57    Duke    86
Cin    .448    4.36    Harang    86
Seattle    .394    4.18    Dickey    77
LAA    .606    4.63    Lackey     133
NYY    .531    4.85    Chamberlain     125
TB    .606    4.67    Garza    118
Bal    .447    5.04    Cabrera     84
TB    .603    4.67    Garza    118
Oak    .458    3.94    Gallagher     83
Cle    .489    4.85    Byrd     97
Bos    .592    5.33    Byrd    97
NYY    .531    4.85    Ponson    84
TB    .603    4.67    Shields    118
NYY    .531    4.85    Pettitte    95
TB    .603    4.67    Sonnanstine     93

Avverages   .586    4.81         104
    17 starts against 500 teams       
    12 starts against sub 500   
Pitchers who threw 120 innings or more Qualifty of Batters Faced (Baseball Prospectus)           
Halladay: 2nd    (Average OPS = .766)
Lee: 73rd   ( Average OPS = .732)

Run Support           
Lee 5.86           
Halladay 4.75           


***All statistics taken from mlb.com at approximately 11:00 pm (AST) on Sunday, Sept 7          

A couple of notes: zeppelinkm made a command decision to reduce Joba the Hutt's ERA+ from 160 to 125 to try to eliminate "reliever dominance," lest Joba's dominance as a reliever inflate the quality of Doc's opposition. This is a sensible precaution, but probably not all that necessary - almost three quarters of Chamberlain 88 IP of 160+ ERA came as a starting pitcher (Chamberlain has pitched 65.1 IP as a starter, 22.2 IP in relief.) If you look at his splits, you will see that Chamberlain really hasn't been much more dominant as a reliever at all. His ERA as a starter is 2.76 (2.42 as a reliever) - opposing hitters are hitting ..213/.302/.287 against him as a reliever, .245 /.319 /.322 against him as a starter. He's been almost as effective as a starter.

I've made one alteration to zeppelinkm's original work - he had a marker indicating whether the opposition was above or below .500 - I've inserted the opposing team's actual winning percentage, and averaged them.

Anyway, the overall impact is truly striking - Halladay has pitched against somewhat better offenses (his opponents have averaged 4.81 runs per game, Lee's have averaged 4.58 runs per game.) But Doc has pitched far more often against better teams, not just teams who score more runs, and he's generally been matched up against better starting pitchers. It's not particularly close, especially when it comes to being matched up against the very best teams in the game.

None of this is Cliff Lee's fault - his manager gives him the ball, he doesn't make the schedule, he doesn't decide who's pitching for the other guys. He's gone out against whoever he was sent out against and pitched about as well as you could ask a man to pitch. It's hard to ask him to have been better than he's been, and I personally won't quarrel if he gets the Cy Young. But there's simply no comparison between the overall Quality of Opposition the two pitchers have had to deal with.

There are only five teams in the majors on pace to win 90+ games: Boston, Tampa, the Angels, and the two Chicago teams. Halladay has made 11 of his 29 starts against those five teams, and they account for 5 of his 9 losses (he has 6 wins against them).

On the other hand, while Lee has made just 5 starts against those teams, he's been absolutely brilliant against them - he's 4-0, 1.15 in those five starts.

Hey - six of one, half a dozen of the other?
Lee vs Halladay | 29 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Leigh - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#192078) #
All statistics taken from mlb.com at approximately 11:00 pm (AST) on Sunday, Sept 7

AST represent!
JustinD - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#192080) #
In my gut I already knew this to be true. I will follow Stephen Colberts lead and ignore these facts, even if they support my gut.

But in all seriousness, good read. Thanks for taking the time to do this!

Denoit - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#192081) #

It's too bad Cliff Lee had to have the season he is, cause really Roy Halladay deserves some kind of award for what he has done this year. With a little more run support in a few games Halladay could easily have 2 or 3 more wins right now.

uglyone - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#192083) #

I did my own comparison a week or so back, and found a much more striking difference than even this post argues for, in terms of the quality of OFFENSES each pitcher has faced. I've now updated it for their most recent starts:

 

Vs. .750+ ops teams (Top-15)

Roy:  23gms, 163.1ip, 13-9, 2.98era
Lee:  12gms, 79.1ip, 9-1, 3.06era


Vs. -.750 ops teams (Bottom-15)

Roy:  7gms, 54.2ip, 5-0, 1.65era
Lee:  15gms, 113.1ip, 11-1, 1.91era

 

 

groove - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#192084) #
You can't take the average of ERA+ like that, because it is not a linear stat. The 212 for Harden will skew the results for that column.  That said the real combined ERA is probably still in Lee's favour
Pistol - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#192085) #
I always think that innings pitched is underrated in pitcher comparisons.  Halladay has 16.1 more innings than Lee.

If Lee pitched 16.1 more innings he'd have to give up less than 13 runs to have his ERA still be below Halladay.  13 runs in 16.1 innings is a 7.27 ERA which sounds like a lot, but those would be innings that he would have pitched where his manager felt he was going to be ineffective for whatever reason.  I don't think it's a stretch to say that it's possible that Lee's ERA would be worse than Halladay if he pitched an additional 16.1 innings.

I suspect that Halladay is also hurt by his home park, but is probably helped by his defense.

Long story short - Lee's probably going to rank higher on the actual ballots than Halladay for all 32 votes, but when you throw everything into the blender you could probably argue the case either way for who the better pitcher this year is.
Shaker Mo - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#192086) #

uglyone:

I don't understand how your stats have Halladay's ERA as lower than Lee's versus both the top OPS teams and the bottom OPS teams.

If that were the case, wouldn't Doc's total ERA have to be lower than Lee's this season?

Nolan - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#192087) #

I don't understand how your stats have Halladay's ERA as lower than Lee's versus both the top OPS teams and the bottom OPS teams.

If that were the case, wouldn't Doc's total ERA have to be lower than Lee's this season?

The difference is that Doc has 160+ innings of around a 3 ERA, while Lee has 113 innings of a 1.91 ERA.

The stats show that while Doc and Lee have been rather equal in how they perform against different caliber teams; the difference is that Lee has been pitching more of his innings against mediocre teams while Doc has been facing the better teams more often.

Magpie - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#192089) #
Ah, the mathematics. It will get counter-intuitive. I remember noticing a while back that although Brad Wilkerson had a higher batting average than Kevin Mench (at that time!), Mench had a higher BAVG than Wilkerson against LHP and RHP.

You notice stuff like that and you immediately walk around and show it to everyone, just to see the WHAAA? look on their faces.

Shaker Mo - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#192092) #

I figured it was someting like that. Thanks for reminding me (once again) why I can't explain higher math or physics to my daughter.

:P

Chuck - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#192104) #
I remember noticing a while back that although Brad Wilkerson had a higher batting average than Kevin Mench (at that time!), Mench had a higher BAVG than Wilkerson against LHP and RHP.

This phenomenon has a name: Simpson's Paradox.
Gerry - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#192105) #
Does Joe Sheehan read Batters Box?
zeppelinkm - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#192107) #

Groove: You're right... and I knew it wasn't proper to average it like that.  I just wanted (at first) to have a "reference" guide there to see the different ERA+'s of the opposition starting pitchers.  To do it properly would you have to account for each pitchers respective innings and weigh their ERA+'s accordingly when deriving the average?

Thanks Magpie for putting this up! Switching from the Yes/No to over .500 or not illustrates the quality of the team's he's faced much better too.

 

Mike Green - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#192108) #
This has very little to do with Cy Young voting, but one of the keys to Lee's superb season is his HR/fly rate of just over 4%.  It is very unusual to be able to sustain a low HR/fly rate over more than a season.  Chien Ming Wang has done it.  Joe Blanton sort of did it. 

I'd still vote for Lee. It reminds me of the 93 MVP race between the Big Hurt and Olerud.  Hurt was the better player; Johnny O had the better season.

John Northey - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#192109) #
Good point Mike about the '93 MVP. Just double checked it and noticed that Paul Molitor finished between Thomas and Olerud. Given all 3 were DH/1B and none had a great defensive rep (although Molitor could play third and did so in the World Series but not in the regular season) the offense is all we should look at. Of note though is that Olerud did have a better rep for defense but wearing that hat on the field probably cost him a bit (just didn't look like a player crap).

Thomas: 317/426/607 177 OPS+ 41 HR 128 RBI
Molitor: 332/402/509 143 OPS+ 22 HR 111 RBI
Olerud: 363/473/599 186 OPS+ 24 HR 107 RBI

All 3 played over 150 games, so playing time wasn't a factor. I suspect the biggest elements costing Olerud were 1) RBI 2) HR 3) Reputation. It was a unanimous vote btw.

Sadly MVP voters (especially in the AL) are addicted to the RBI even more than Cy Young voters are to the Win.

If Halladay had more wins than Lee but a worse ERA then he'd get the award. But Lee has the wins and ERA thus is a lock. Lee coming in second in complete games and having the best BB/9 IP ratio should help a bit too. Lets just hope the save king doesn't steal any first or second place votes. It should be a 28-0 vote for 1st and 2nd this year.
Magpie - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#192112) #
Lets just hope the save king doesn't steal any first or second place votes.

He probably will get some votes, too. What can you do?

Is K-Rod even one of the five best relief pitchers in the AL this season? I doubt it myself - Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon seem to have clearly pitched better than Rodriguez. Joakim Soria and Bobby Jenks as well.

Scott Downs.
Mick Doherty - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#192113) #

It should be a 28-0 vote for 1st and 2nd this year.

Interesting idea -- and I have no idea how to look it up, but has this ever happened? By "this," I mean one guy getting all the first place votes and one guy getting all the second-place votes?

I am thinking maybe Ron Guidry and Mike Caldwell in 1978, but beyond a vague recollection that Louisiana Lightning was (and deserved to be) a unanimous winner, I have naught a clue.

James W - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#192119) #
Glad you remembered Downs, Magpie.  I'd have had to...  uh, type furiously if you forgot him.  For my money, Jesse Carlson has pitched just as well as K-Rod too.
Magpie - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#192121) #
By "this," I mean one guy getting all the first place votes and one guy getting all the second-place votes?

Nope. Almost, but not quite.

The current 5-3-1 structure was adopted in 1970 (after the 1969 AL vote resulted in a tie.) Since then, we've come very close to a unanimous 1-2 ballot four times.

In 1978 (well remembered!), Ron Guidry got all 28 first place votes (140 points), and Mike Caldwell did get most of the 28 second place votes. But it looks like several of the writers placed him third - he had 76 of 84 possible votes.

In 2002, Randy Johnson was a unanimous winner (32 first place votes, 160 points), and Curt Schilling appears to have collected 29 second place votes and a trio of thirds (90 points).

The closest ever involved Schilling again. In 2004, Johan Santana collected all 28 first place votes (140 points): Schilling received 27 2nd place and one third place (82 points.)

This was repeated last year - Jake Peavy received all 32 first place votes (160 points) - Brandon Webb appears to have received 31 seconds and 1 third place (94 points.)

The 1988 NL vote is of interest. All 24 voters placed Orel Hershiser first. 15 ballots had Danny Jackson and David Cone third; the other 9 had Cone second and Jackson third. No one else got mentioned.

There are a few near unanimous votes we could consider consider as well (in the event that we might find a ballot where the top two guys were the same in every case, even if they may have been either first or second). But it's clear from looking at the vote totals that the same guy who pulled 1 or 2 first place votes also collected a few thirds.


Chuck - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#192122) #
If we're opening this up to non-closers, what about Brad Ziegler? Joey Devine? Brandon Morrow? Jose Arredondo? Grant Balfour?
92-93 - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#192130) #
Tonight's rain-out puts the Jays in a tough position - they are scheduled to have no starters available for Saturday's doubleheader against Boston. Is there any chance Cito throws both AJ and Doc on 3 days rest for those 2? Then you throw Parrish on Sunday, and Marcum/Litsch/Purcey vs. Baltimore. This would also set them up nicely to have AJ/Doc go the next Friday/Saturday vs. Boston. It will be interesting to see how Cito plays it.
92-93 - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#192131) #
Scratch that. I had Halladay and Litsch mixed up. I guess the 3 days rest option is to have all of Burnett Litsch and Halladay go on 3 days rest vs. Boston.
Magpie - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#192132) #
Is there any chance Cito throws both AJ and Doc on 3 days rest for those 2?

Very little, I'd say. He might think about Burnett for the second game Saturday if he gets a chance to pull him early tomorrow. Gaston tried a four man rotation in September 1990, it didn't work out that well.

So I'd expect to see Richmond or Parrish get the Game One start on Saturday - as it's in Fenway, I'd bet on Richmond. And if Burnett doesn't have an easy game tomorrow, probably Parrish for the second game.

And I wouldn't expect to see him bring Doc back on short rest for the Sunday game, unless - unless! - they practically run the table until then. But if they go 3-4 or 4-3, no way.
Mike Green - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#192133) #
Burnett and Litsch go tomorrow.  If one of them has a short outing, I'd bet that he'll be back on Saturday.  It wouldn't surprise me if Cito pulls one of them early provided the game situation warrants it (such as 6-0 after 5 innings).  The Jay pen is rested with the rainout today and Purcey's 8 innings yesterday. 
Magpie - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#192134) #
Oops. It was actually 1991 when Gaston went to a four man rotation (David Wells went back to the bullpen.) That September, Juan Guzman made 3 starts on short rest, Tom Candiotti made 2, and Jimmy Key and Todd Stottlemyre made 1 apiece.

Aside from that experiment, it was very unusual for Gaston to ask a starter to work on 3 days rest. Guzman did it once in both in 1992 and 1995, Stottlemyre once in 1989 and 1994. He requested one time apiece from Cerutti (1989), Cone (1992), Morris (1992), Leiter (1994), and Hentgen (1995). Stieb, Flanagan, Clemens, Williams, Hanson never did it even once for him, and I didn't bother checking on Person and Flener and the rest of those guys.

Mike Green - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#192135) #
Two doubleheaders in four days in September is a special situation.  If ever there was a time for a tandem start, it would be in LItsch's game tomorrow.  Run Litsch out for 3-4 innings,  and follow Litsch with Scott Downs for 3 innings if the game is close.  If you wanted to be really daring, you run tandem starts with Burnett, Litsch and Halladay over the next two days pairing them up with Tallet, Downs and Parrish.  You put the starters on a 70 pitch count and then bring 'em all back on 3 days rest. 
92-93 - Monday, September 08 2008 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#192136) #
Mike, that's exactly what I would like to see happen. What I don't get is all the talk on bluejays.com about Halladay going on 3 days, but ignoring Burnett. If Burnett is pitching tomorrow, then his regular next start would be on Sunday, and the Jays are off Monday. So if you are thinking about starting Doc on 3 days rest (Wednesday and Sunday), doesn't that automatically mean you are thinking of doing the same with at least Burnett (Tuesday and Saturday)? Otherwise you're allowing a week's rest for Burnett, which is totally unnecessary. It should be both or nothing.
Jays2010 - Tuesday, September 09 2008 @ 03:17 AM EDT (#192138) #

Ugh, this rain day totally screws up the notion of letting Halladay and Litsch pitch on 3 days rest on the weekend. Now I suppose Burnett, Litsch and Halladay would have to pitch on 3 days rest for us to avoid our number 6 starter. Clearly mother nature does not want us to make the playoffs.

I predict that the Red Sox overtake the Rays and finish with maybe 94 wins, while the Rays finish with 92 and we finish with 90.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 10 2008 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#192242) #

As I was finally coming off the high of the double win yesterday as  I drifted off to sleep.....I wondered to myself about this possibility....

.....if the jays do indeed make a run to the playoffs, led by Roy winning 4 or 5 more games.......given the dearth of legit clear MVP candidates on all the playoff teams at the moment......would there be a better MVP candidate than Roy?

Could Lee win the Cy, but Roy win the MVP?

Lee vs Halladay | 29 comments | Create New Account
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