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Every year, we have a discussion/debate/brawl regarding who among active players is headed to enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. This year, we'll break that down into six separate discussions/debates/brawls, divided (logically enough) by division. We'll start with the home of the home nine, the A.L. East.

To be clear -- this is not a prediction or a projection, but just an off-the-top starting point. To that end, each team's Hall possibilities are broken down into five categories ...


  1. Absolute slam-dunk mortal lock, also known as The Schmidt-Seaver Level;
  2. Certainly on pace to make it, or The Rod Carew in 1977 Level;
  3. Will get some votes, but probably never get inducted, or The Steve Garvey Level;
  4. Solid player, but no real chance at enshrinement, or The Larry Bowa Level; and
  5. Too early to tell, but worth watching, or the, um, Is He Ruben Sierra or Dave Parker or Hank Aaron? Level.
That last one is the toughest. There are many players who are off to incredible, obviously Hall of Fame starts, but will they flame out like Sierra? Have a nice career but not quite Hall-worthy, like Parker? Or become part of the pantheon, like Aaron?

There are very few players in that first "slam dunk" category, meaning players who could retire right now and rest comfortably while drafting their acceptance speeches. There are just about as few in the "on pace to" category that acknowledges the current greats who just haven't been around long enough yet to get the plaque-makers busy. There are many players at the third and fourth levels -- solid, but not Hall-category guys, though some will at least get some support from voters. As for that "Too early to tell" category, it's not really at all for rookies or brand-new players; you won't see names like Lind and Snider.

In fact, the below list doesn't even really do justice to the many solid players on the teams listed -- a guy like Nick Swisher, for instance, doesn't bear mentioning, though honestly, if he was an Oriole, he might have been listed just so their categories weren't completely barren. (Again, this is all pretty random. Feel free to jump in with "How could you not even mention ...?")

The list only considers active players, though if you really want to make a shout-out for a manager, umpire, front office guy or even a recently-retired player, please feel free to do so.

One final note -- there is no consideration given below to whether or not a player also belongs in The Mark McGwire Level ... use of PEDs, suspected, confirmed, or even admitted, is not one of our criteria.

Methodology... I scanned rosters and drew unscientifc, non-statistical knee-jerk conclusions. You got a problem with that? I freely admit this almost certainly missed someone(s) really obvious, that I misplaced/miscategorized others, etc. So what? This is a discussion starter. Go to it!

BLUE JAYS
  • Absolute slam-dunk mortal lock: Nobody
  • Certainly on pace to make it: Roy Halladay
  • Will get some votes, but probably not: Vernon Wells
  • Solid player, but no real chance: B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay, Scott Rolen
  • Too early to tell, but worth watching: Alex Rios
YANKEES
  • Absolute slam-dunk mortal lock: Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez
  • Certainly on pace to make it: Mark Teixeira
  • Will get some votes, but probably not: Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui
  • Solid player, but no real chance: A.J. Burnett, C.C. Sabathia, Johnny Damon
  • Too early to tell, but worth watching: Chien-Ming Wang, Robinson Cano
RED SOX
  • Absolute slam-dunk mortal lock: Nobody
  • Certainly on pace to make it: John Smoltz
  • Will get some votes, but probably not: Josh Beckett, David Ortiz
  • Solid player, but no real chance: Jon Papelbon, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew
  • Too early to tell, but worth watching: Dustin Pedroia
RAYS
  • Absolute slam-dunk mortal lock: Nobody
  • Certainly on pace to make it: Nobody
  • Will get some votes, but probably not: Troy Percival
  • Solid player, but no real chance: Jason Isringhausen, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell
  • Too early to tell, but worth watching: Scott Kazmir, David Price, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton
ORIOLES
  • Absolute slam-dunk mortal lock: Nobody
  • Certainly on pace to make it: Nobody
  • Will get some votes, but probably not: Nobody
  • Solid player, but no real chance: Melvin Mora, Nick Markakis
  • Too early to tell, but worth watching: Adam Jones
Who's headed to Cooperstown? (AL East edition) | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, May 05 2009 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#199426) #
I admit, the one guy hardest to place for me was Smoltz -- he dioesn't really fit any of the five categories. I almost added a sixth category, called something like "Probably should but maybe won't, causing many of us to wonder What the Hell?" This would be the Bert Blyleven Level.
braden - Tuesday, May 05 2009 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#199427) #
I've gotta think that if Rios is worth watching, then so is Markakis, who is the better player in almost all facets of the game and a few years younger.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 05 2009 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#199428) #
Posada belongs in the Blyleven category. I can see him becoming a sabrmetric cause celebre in a few years, and rightly so.

Also, I think Markakis belongs not just in the prospect category but the 'clearly on pace to make it' category. He looks like as good a bet to hit .300 for his career as anybody, and he is well-positioned to be the face of the O's franchise for awhile. I don't pay much attention to the HOF, so this could be misinformed, but I get the impression that whether he ends up with 200 or 400 homers will play a bigger role in his Hall candidacy than it has any right to.
AWeb - Tuesday, May 05 2009 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#199430) #
I gotta' think Rolen is at least on the same level as Wells, having been a better hitter and defender for his entire career. How does Ryan even make the list? He has 117 saves at age 33, and hasn't been right in years now. No chance.

Posada should be up higher, Matsui has no chance whatsoever. Sabathia has a very real chance, as a 28 year old with 118 wins and consistently good ERA.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 05 2009 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#199431) #
... to clarify, I think Markakis stands out from other players his age as accomplished as he is because he's been an excellent player for two seasons on a weak team in the AL East and there are no red flags anywhere in his numbers. It's not that he has a HOF-worthy resume already, just that I will be completely stunned if he doesn't end up in at least the Garvey level when he's done, barring injury. I wouldn't be prepared to say that for virtually any other player with 2.x years of service time.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 05 2009 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#199432) #
Rolen's probably the closest among non-Halladay Jays: 5-time all-star, 7 gold gloves, a great player before his injury with the potential to add a few solid seasons before he retires. Probably not close enough, but I bet he hangs on the ballot for a few years.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#199437) #
"Absolute slam-dunk mortal lock: Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez"

A-Rod is not getting into the HOF.

In 2004, I think Rolen was certainly on pace to make the Hall. It's sad that his power is zapped because he was a tremendous all-around player. His 2004 line of .314/.409/.598 was incredible, and I think when you factor in defense there was a good chunk of time that he was the NL's best 3B (all apologies to Larry who was always mediocre in the field).
gabrielthursday - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 02:48 AM EDT (#199438) #
I think that Rolen is certainly in the Steve Garvey level. And, as probably the best defensive third baseman ever, I would say the Bert Blyleven level. On the other hand, both Lyle Overbay and B.J. Ryan probably should be left off entirely. Aaron Hill, as someone playing a traditionally poor-hitting position, should be in the "to be watched" category.

And if David Price can be in the 'watch' category despite being in AAA, Snider and Lind could likewise be included. And on the David Price standard, Matt Wieters deserves inclusion as well.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#199440) #

And if David Price can be in the 'watch' category despite being in AAA, Snider and Lind could likewise be included.

Lind turns 26 in two months. While he's had a terrific 100 AB to start this season, is there any existing HoFer who accomplished as little as Lind will have done by his 26th birthday? If Edgar Martinez ever gets the nod, that'd be one at least. I can't think of any others though I imagine they might exist.

Travis Snider is just 21 so his career arc figures to be an entirely different matter. His resume figures to look pretty impressive by age 26.

Dylan B - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#199442) #

Wondering about Papelbon. I think he should atleast be Will get some votes, or On pace. He actually start closing younger then Rivera, Hoffman and Percival who are all top 10 all time in saves. Maybe with the career path of a closer, he should be in the Too early to tell but worth watching.

This is all based on if you if you think a pitcher who will only throw 1000 innings in their career even deserves to be in the HOF

Ryan Day - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#199443) #
While he's had a terrific 100 AB to start this season, is there any existing HoFer who accomplished as little as Lind will have done by his 26th birthday?

Jackie Robinson?

Of course, if you extend it to pitchers it gets easier: Randy Johnson is a shoe-in, and he was pretty uninspiring before he turned 26.
Jim - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#199444) #
Matsui might not even make it to the ballot.  There would need to be 3 seasons left in those knees.
Jim - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#199445) #
Johnny Damon has 2,300 hits and is 35 years old.  He'll be less then 600 away from 3,000 by the end of the season barring injury.  Assuming he wants to keep playing, he's going to get awfully close to 3,000 hits.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#199446) #

I find the whole 'A-Rod not getting in' stuff to be pretty short sighted.  By the time A-Rod retires we'll have had many HOF locks and inner circle guys with big time steroid issues (Bonds, Clemens plus Sosa, Palmeiro, McGwire, and who knows how many more) go through the process.  A-Rod might have to wait a year or two due to it, but I can't imagine that 15 years from now the writers will still be saying 'no steroids in the HOF'.  The only qualifed HOF'ers who aren't in and are not going to get in (ie: guys who are off ballot and not considered seriously anymore) are Shoeless Joe, Pete Rose, and some pre-1900 guys.  Gambling on games is many, many times worse than steroids and has been banned since before the AL existed vs steroids and the like which were on a 'wink-wink, nudge-nudge' basis until well after the '98 home run chase.

Now, as to mortal locks - always tough to say.  3000 hits, 500+ home runs, 300 wins were the standard although HR seem to be moving away from the 500 standard.  Relievers are a crap shoot depending on storylines more than actual results.  Plus, of course, predicting kids is a complete guessing game.

Jim - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#199448) #

The players in the division who have a chance and the order I'd rank their chances (A-Rod really impossible to rank):

JeterRiveraA-RodSmoltzDamonLongoriaHalladaySabathiaPapelbonTeixeiraRolenBeckettWeitersUptonSnider

Cano

 

Price

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#199449) #
Scott Rolen ought to be a Hall of Famer by the time he is done.  He is clearly on pace.  There are a bunch of reasonable Hall of Fame third basemen of the post-war era (Ken Boyer, Ron Santo,  Sal Bando, Darrell Evans, Robin Ventura), and Rolen sits near the top of that group already and may end up at the very top.  Alas, many lesser players than Santo have been inducted, and so Rolen's chances will depend on whether in 2025, the influence of sabermetrics is felt in the Veterans' Committee.  It would help if the Jays won a series and he starred!
AWeb - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#199450) #
A-Rod is not getting into the HOF.

I'd be surprised if he didn't make it in eventually. I mean, can the HoF actually keep out all of the suspected/confirmed players of this generation forever? It's clear that the only reason anyone cares about the top guys is that they were breaking records. Bonds, Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Sheffield, Palmeiro, Sosa, McGwire, Ivan Rodriguez, etc. If more pitching records were falling, I'm convinced we'd know more pitchers names for the same list.

And I see that John made my point already...I hereby agree.

Brian Roberts could follow the Jeff Kent career path as a second baseman, and continue hitting into his late 30's. Kent had 1600 hits from his age 31 season on, Roberts lacks the power, but you never know. At the least, if Melvin Mora merits mentioning, Roberts does.

Pitchers are tough, but James Shields merits a mention too...he's been very good so far, and healthy. Pitching into the HoF requires longevity more than anything, and that's impossible to predict.
lexomatic - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#199451) #
Aaron Hill, as someone playing a traditionally poor-hitting position, should be in the "to be watched" category.

Except that 2nd has not always been a traditionally poor-hitting position. There's some serious sluggers in the hall at 2b. The bar is set high, and while it's early, Hill doesn't look like a Jeff Kent. So i will respectfully disagree.

i do agree with the previous statements re: Markakis, Rolen and others
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#199452) #
C.C. Sabathia is also on pace, on merit, and stands a very good chance of being voted in by the writers if he ends up with 300 wins which is certainly possible. 

Sean Smith's baseballprojection.com has a very nice simple, fairly reliable and user-friendly listing of players with career "wins above replacement".  In nearly every case, his figures coincide almost exactly with my less formal combination of offensive numerical evaluation and "multiple source" defensive evaluation.  Sean uses "Total Zone" for his defensive numbers.  You might disagree a lit bit with some of them, but overall the accuracy is good enough for my purposes. The only real issue is the lack of sufficient adjustment for leverage of relievers and no consideration of post-season play.  You can safely throw out the number for Mariano Rivera on Sean's website, but just about everyone else is close. 

Parker - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#199454) #
Johnny Damon has 2,300 hits and is 35 years old.  He'll be less then 600 away from 3,000 by the end of the season barring injury.  Assuming he wants to keep playing, he's going to get awfully close to 3,000 hits.

If he was a middle infielder, I would agree with you.  However, Damon hits for little power and is becoming a liability in the field; he might have a hard time finding playing time to pick up those last couple hundred hits. 
Anders - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#199456) #
I think that Rolen is certainly in the Steve Garvey level. And, as probably the best defensive third baseman ever, I would say the Bert Blyleven level.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here... Brooks Robinson won 16 gold gloves and is widely considered the best defensive third baseman of all time. Rolen's won half as many and has probably been done as an elite third baseman for two or three years now, with the injuries. Gold Gloves are admittedly a poor proxy for defense, but they are perhaps the easiest measure given incomplete information.  I find it hard to envision Rolen making it into the HOF - he hasn't been an all-star caliber player in four or five years, and has one top-15 MVP finish along with poor counting stats. Rightly or wrongly, I doubt he has much of a chance.

Other random musings: I'm optomistic about Doc, but he probably needs to pitch at about the same level for another 5 years at least. By the end of the year he should have 150 wins and be 32... he probably needs another 70-85 wins given the prevailing sentiments, though by 2020 when we havent had a 300 game winner in 10 years perhaps standards will be lower... Rios I think has next to no shot at being a hall of famer - he's 28 and has a career OPS below .800. Nick Markakis is easily the superior player - his rate stats are better and his counting stats are similar, despite being 3 years younger... Vernon's best years are also behind him, and they've been fine but hardly hall worthy... I agree that Posada has been underrated, and don't think Teixeira is necessarily worthy of making it in - he's made one ASG, and though that is hardly the best measure, it is one of the things that is trotted out when these decisions are made... Wang has no chance, even before this year. Sabathia has had a major league job since he was 21 and has been an excellent pitcher for three years - he probably has the best chance of any pitcher under 30 of making the hall of fame in baseball, and certainly a better one that Doc I would think.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#199459) #
However, Damon hits for little power and is becoming a liability in the field

Which sounds exactly like Rod Carew, strangely enough! I think it'll be whatever passes for a Veteran's Committee that inducts Damon. We have no idea what's going to impress the next generation of writers who will be doing the voting. The people who actually watched him while he was active will say "no way," just like the rest of us.

But in about 15 years, they may start looking at his numbers - which will probably be about 250 career homers and about 3000 hits, close to 500 stolen bases - and start going "wow! what a player! why on earth isn't this guy in the Hall?" And if future HoF voters place any value at all on Runs Scored, Damon is going to go in. He could easily end up with 1800. Which is a lot.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#199460) #
There's something counter-intuitive and deeply irritating (to me, anyway) about the notion that John Smoltz is not a slam-dunk HoFer (which is probably an accurate assessment.

Smoltz, obviously, is Dennis Eckerlsey Mark II. But far, far better. Just as effective as a closer - but he only did that job for three years because, unlike Eckersley, he was still capable of being a kick-ass starter.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#199461) #
When I plug Markakis' career numbers into the spreadsheet and try to project what to expect from him, I come up with 2961 hits, a .303 average, and 324 homers.

I think that's very conservative. The system sees 27 HRs as his season best.

He's also going to win half a dozen Gold Gloves, which will do no harm.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#199462) #
Oh yeah.  On merit, Smoltz is really easy.  The shocker is that he has actually been better than Glavine once you account for leverage and post-season performance.  Glavine should, of course, qualify easily. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#199463) #
Incidentally, here's the Brooks Robinson vs. Scott Rolen comparison, according to Sean Smith.  Rolen just turned 34.  Robinson turned 34 in April, 1971, his last really good season.  Through age 33, Robinson is by far the superior defensive player being 180 runs above replacement whereas Rolen is 126 runs above replacement (a difference of just over 5 wins).  But, Rolen more than makes it up with the bat.  In the result, Rolen is 58 wins above replacement through age 33 whereas Brooks was 54.6.  Robinson ended up at 70 wins above replacement, and merited induction.  There is no reason that Rolen cannot match him. 
Jim - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#199476) #

he probably has the best chance of any pitcher under 30 of making the hall of fame in baseball, and certainly a better one that Doc I would think.

I thought I was going to look at the numbers and think that way about Sabathia over Halladay, but just a quick examination of the numbers changed my mind.  It seems that Sabathia has been dominant for longer then he really has.

Smoltz will probably have to wait for Glavine but be enshrined I think fairly quickly.  I do not think that Rolen will pass the smell test that the writers seem to use before they will even truly examine the statistical record. 

Damon is better then 50/50 to get in I think.  The numbers are going to be there unless he hangs them up when he still has something left.  He'll also get some credit for 2004. 

Posada is the guy who is going to get screwed I think.  I think he's deserving, but he's going to get lumped in with Bernie and there may be resistance to enshrine so many from one team and one era.

 

 


 

Magpie - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#199477) #
There is no reason that Rolen cannot match him.

I don't think it'll matter, though. Robinson is in the Hall because of his defensive reputation, which was quite literally mythic, as if the position had never been played this way before  - kind of the same way Ozzie Smith got in. Both players are probably deserving anyway, and both were truly great defenders. But both had reputations that quite o'ersailed the bounds of all that's reasonable. 
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#199481) #

resistance to enshrine so many from one team and one era.
True, but that bears considering naming the late '90s Yankees something like "The Hall of Really Good" team.

Jeter will get in. Rivera will get in. Clemens probably not. A-Rod probably not, at least right away. Boggs doesn't really count. Williams, Pettitte, Cone, Mussina, Posada ... all at least arguably Hall-worthy, but wouldn't be surprised if NONE of them make it. O'Neill and some others are obvious "Hall of Really Good"-only qualifiers. Gooden and Strawberry won't (and shouldn't) make it, and besides, like Boggs, aren't really "Yankee"  candidates.

Has any team been THAT successful and not had more slam-dunk Hall guys? The BRM of the '70s, for example, had Bench, Perez, Morgan, Rose (whoops, not Rose) and, for a time, Seaver. I think the turn-of-the-century Yanks were at least as good as the '70s Reds ...

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#199485) #
FWIW, Sean Smith's stats do list Robinson's defensive contributions as mythic (and in fact, much larger than Ozzie's).  But, you are right, the perception is everything.  Brooks Robinson had a "feared" glove; Jim Rice had a "feared" bat.  It's a wonder that Dave Stewart won't get in despite his "feared" stare. 

You are right that the writers are unlikely to elect Rolen.  But, as for the Veteran's Committee, who knows?  Joe Gordon got in.  Maybe Whitaker, Grich and Santo will go in that way, and then sometime in the distant future, it might be Rolen's turn.  He is a great ballplayer.

Anders - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#199494) #

Jeter will get in. Rivera will get in. Clemens probably not. A-Rod probably not, at least right away. Boggs doesn't really count. Williams, Pettitte, Cone, Mussina, Posada ... all at least arguably Hall-worthy, but wouldn't be surprised if NONE of them make it. O'Neill and some others are obvious "Hall of Really Good"-only qualifiers. Gooden and Strawberry won't (and shouldn't) make it, and besides, like Boggs, aren't really "Yankee"  candidates.

Has any team been THAT successful and not had more slam-dunk Hall guys?

I think there is a distinction to be drawn here though. Jeter and Rivera will get in for sure. A-Rod and Clemens, though latecomers to the Yankees, probably have to be counted amongst the greatest players of all time. Their reason for not being enshrined will purely be for off the field antics. I suppose Pete Rose might be included in the Reds tally for similar reasons...
jjdynomite - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#199508) #
I am a bit unclear why Vernon "will get some votes" and Alexis is "too early to tell", given that Rios is only 2 years and 2 months younger than Wells and has played only 2 full seasons less.  Is it because Alex is still under 30?

Regardless of both of them being woefully overpaid (given their relative contributions), they should both be considered as "solid player(s), but no real chance".

And, as others have mentioned, bump Rolen up to "will get some votes" or higher.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#199509) #
Apropos of not much at all... Markakis reminds me a whole lot of Yastrzemski. Which means that I really, really like him.

Ok, Carl is Polish and NIck is Greek (and is he ever Greek, it's very cool.) Which also means I'm expecting a big-time power surge from him in a couple of years.
ahitisahit - Wednesday, May 06 2009 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#199520) #
It's pretty obvious to me that everyone in baseball was doing steroids at the time Clemens and A-Rod did. If dominating players were taking steroids, of course the scrubs were taking them too. There was no testing, so why not. I think if they can both stay out of legal trouble (Clemens in particular) they are locks for the hall of fame.

I think Rolen should get into the hall, but I'm not sure it will happen. He had close to 10 years of being the best 3rd baseman by a long shot in the bigs.

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