Don't usually do the pitchers because the projection stats are tough with SP/RP mixed roles and no projected adjusted stats, but lemme try....


Straightforward Past 1 Calendar Years:

SP1 RH Yesavage: 6gms, 4.6ip/gm, 48era-, 53fip-, 89xfip-, 5.9awar/32
SP2 RH Gausman: 32gms, 6.1ip/gm, 83era-, 80fip-, 86xfip-, 4.4awar/32
SP3 RH Cease: 32gms, 5.6ip/gm, 97era-, 76fip-, 77xfip-, 3.4awar/32
SP4 RH Bieber: 7gms, 5.8ip/gm, 88era-, 106fip-, 80xfip-, 2.7awar/32
SP5 LH Corbin: 31gms, 5.0ip/gm, 111era-, 99fip-, 98xfip-, 1.6awar/32

SP6 RH Berrios: 23gms, 5.2ip/gm, 106era-, 108fip-, 108xfip-, 1.1awar/32
SP7 RH Scherzer: 21gms, 4.8ip/gm, 146era-, 129fip-, 115xfip-, -0.3awar/32


RP1 RH Varland: 72gms, 1.0ip/gm, 54era-, 60fip-, 69xfip-, 1.7awar/65
RP2 RH Rogers: 80gms, 1.0ip/gm, 52era-, 70fip-, 76xfip-, 1.4awar/65
RP3 RH Fisher: 71gms, 1.0ip/gm, 65era-, 71fip-, 87xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP4 RH Nance: 48gms, 1.0ip/gm, 66era-, 49fip-, 67xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP5 RH Rodriguez: 51gms, 1.1ip/gm, 64era-, 94fip-, 111xfip-, 0.9awar/65
RP6 LH Little: 64gms, 0.8ip/gm, 118era-, 88fip-, 86xfip-, -0.3awar/65
RP7 LH Fluharty: 61gms, 0.9ip/gm, 135era-, 96fip-, 93xfip-, -0.3awar/65
RP8 RH Hoffman: 72gms, 0.9ip/gm, 115era-, 117fip-, 92xfip-, -0.5awar/65

RP9 RH Miles: 12gms, 1.8ip/gm, 72era-, 79fip-, 80xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP10 LH Mantiply: 16gms, 1.1ip/gm, 101era-, 104fip-, 78xfip-, 0.2awar/65
RP11 RH Garcia: 5gms, 1.0ip/gm, 88era-, 160fip-, 154xfip-, 0.0awar/65
RP12 RH Lee: 27gms, 1.2ip/gm, 115era-, 122fip-, 89xfip-, -0.2awar/65
RP13 RH Estrada: 3gms, 3.8ip/gm, 137era-, 105fip-, 84xfip-, -1.1awar/65



Fangraphs Depth Charts stats, but only using regular ERA and regular FIP, and then an average of the two of them. There's no adjusted ERA/FIP projections, and doing a war pace doesn't really make sense with the way they project innings.


SP1 RH Cease: 23gms, 5.7ip/gm, 3.37era, 3.30fip, 3.33avg
SP2 RH Gausman: 23gms, 5.9ip/gm, 3.85era, 3.77fip, 3.81avg
SP3 RH Bieber: 23gms, 4.0ip/gm, 3.73era, 3.67fip, 3.70avg
SP4 RH Yesavage: 24gms, 4.0ip/gm, 3.85era, 3.84fip, 3.84avg
SP5 RH Berrios: 24gms, 2.7ip/gm, 4.34era, 4.40fip, 4.37avg

SP6 RH Scherzer: 24gms, 3.4ip/gm, 4.59era, 4.69fip, 4.64avg
SP7 LH Corbin: 24gms, 3.4ip/gm, 4.92era, 4.61fip, 5.76avg


RP1 RH Varland: 50gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.31era, 3.40fip, 3.35avg
RP2 RH Hoffman: 47gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.25era, 3.41fip, 3.33avg
RP3 RH Rogers: 56gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.76era, 3.88fip, 3.82avg
RP4 RH Fisher: 47gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.76era, 3.88fip, 3.82avg
RP5 RH Nance: 41gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.63era, 3.62fip, 3.62avg
RP6 RH Garcia: 38gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.57era, 3.65fip, 3.61avg
RP7 LH Fluharty: 43gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.78era, 3.86fip, 3.82avg
RP8 LH Mantiply: 33gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.84era, 3.72fip, 3.77avg

RP9 RH Rodriguez: 29gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.76era, 3.93fip, 3.84avg
RP10 LH Little: 24gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.84era, 4.08fip, 3.96avg
RP11 RH Miles: 39gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.96era, 4.04fip, 4.00avg
RP12 RH Lee: 21gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.06era, 4.12fip, 4.09avg
RP13 RH Estrada: 17gms, 1.3ip/gm, 4.54era, 4.51fip, 4.52avg

RP14 LH Tiedemann: 9gms, 1.6ip/gm, 3.85era, 4.06fip, 3.95avg
RP15 LH Macko: 12gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.03era, 4.32fip, 4.17avg

team is calling barger's inflamation "a joint issue". which could mean many things i guess.

here's hoping it's gout.

Pinango goes right back in the 2-hole.

Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
·
6m
Schneider mentioned Miles, Van Eyk, Dallas for the #BlueJays 5th starter spot.

But, clearly, Jays are exploring outside SPs, too:

“There are ways to explore around the league, too. I know that Ross and everyone are kind of crossing every bridge they can to figure that out.”

Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
25m
Shane Bieber (elbow) will pitch an inning to live hitters on Tuesday. He’s been throwing two-inning bullpens up to this point.

He’ll likely face live hitters a couple times before he progresses




His DL stint began on March 22, so earliest he could come off would be May 22, which is probably earlier than when he'll be ready, but who knows exactly what they're planning.

If they can keep it together and stay around .500 until the end of May and not rush Bieber back then I like their chances of racking up wins like last year the rest of the way with that rotation for July/Aug/Sep.

After starting the season with two dominant starts, Gausman has been only ok since. Small sample size but something to monitor.

Turn on the game and it's already over. Nice.

Gus not sharp tonight.
Lots of elevated splitters.

i always loved you mr.gimenez!

Gimenez has twice as many HR's as Vlad.

We are now about 1/4 of the way through the season, so I thought I'd review the free agent contracts signed in the off season by all the teams. This only counts FA, not extensions or options or arbitration or trades or accepted qualifying offers. Also, this only counts those signed to ML contracts, not minor league contracts or spring training invites. I'm going to give letter grades to each signing so far centered on C. A C is a contract you could give-or-take based on performance so far. A C+ and higher is a contract you like based on performance so far, and to be an A you need to be outperforming the total contract (not just the first 1/4 year) and providing non-trivial value - so very hard for any multiyear deal to be an A. Likewise a C- or worse is a contract that is underperforming and you may not like, but to get an F you have to be looking at a significant underpay so likely again a multi-year contract. There will be + and - applied to each letter to differentiate a little. Also, players may well turn things around, this is based just on what has been shown so far (and for most of the league I'm not really tracking who might be injured/cut versus underperforming but expected to turn things around).

There are 147 such contracts this past off season, worth 2,952M in total contract value. Of those 10 were 4+ years, 10 were 3 years, 20 were 2 years, and 107 were 1 year deals. The average AAV of a contract was just over 8M, and I'm going to break the contracts down by big signings (25+M deals), mid signings (7.5-25M), and minor singings (less than 7.5M) and there are 24 big, 33 mid, and 90 minor signings.

To provide some overall context, using fangraphs war, we have 68 positive war so far (14 of those 1+ war), 23 at 0 (many no play, some play and still round to 0), and 56 contracts with negative war. Based on the contracts amounts, and using 10M/war which is approximately right (slightly high for minor deals, slightly low for star deals, but close to right overall), you'd expect the collective 147 players to deliver 30.23 war so far on the season. They've actually delivered 14.2 war (so well below); however, if we only include positive war people they've delivered 37.6 war so it is really the worse than replacement quality that is dragging things down. Ok, before I go to big/mid/minor, let's start with the Jays signings and more explanation, as for the rest of league I'll mostly just stick to the letter grades:

B:
Dylan Cease - Hard to be much better delivering 1.4 war when only 0.75 would be expected, however, on a 7 year deal this is just 1/28th of the contract so that's why I'm not going higher than a B.
Kazuma Okamoto - Similar to above delivering 1.0 war against 0.38 expected, but again with the 4 year deal not going higher for this level of overperformance in the first quarter of the first year of the deal.
B-:
Tyler Rogers - Outperforming with 0.5 war versus 0.31 expected, but again in year 1 of 3.
D-:
Max Scherzer - A small 1-year contract so very little expected, but -0.8 war is enough negative to earn this grade.
Cody Ponce - 0 war on the year and injured and out for year 1 of a 3 year deal. This would be F+ if it weren't for the good 2.1 innings pitched pre-injury.

So now that we've explained the grades for the Jays, let's do the 24 big offseason signings (and note it is both overperformance and contract length factoring in to grades, so Murakami for example is a B+ instead of B or B- for the 2 year deal instead of 3+ for that level of overperformance - the longer the contract the stricter the grading):

B+ (2 big players):
Cody Bellinger NYY (2.3 war versus 0.81 expected, year 1 of 5)
Munetaka Murakami CWS (1.2 war versus 0.43 expected, year 1 of 2)
B (6 big players):
Michael King SDP (1.3 war versus 0.68 expected, year 1 of 3)
Dylan Cease TOR (1.4 war versus 0.75 expected, year 1 of 7)
Kazuma Okamoto TOR (1.0 war versus 0.38 expected, year 1 of 4)
Kyle Schwarber PHI (1.3 war versus 0.75 expected, year 1 of 5)
Robert Suarez ATL (0.9 war versus 0.38 expected, year 1 of 3)
Ryan O'Hearn PIT (0.6 war versus 0.36 expected, year 1 of 2)
B- (2 big players):
Tyler Rogers TOR (0.5 war versus 0.31 expected, year 1 of 3)
Pete Alonso BAL (1.0 war versus 0.78 expected, year 1 of 5)

C+ (1 big player):
Ranger Suarez BOS (0.8 war versus 0.65 expected, year 1 of 5)
C- (1 big player):
Ryan Helsley BAL (0.3 war versus 0.35 expected, year 1 of 2)

D- (5 big players):
Cody Ponce TOR (0 war versus 0.25 expected, year 1 of 3)
JT Realmuto PHI (0.1 war versus 0.38 expected, year 1 of 3)
Alex Bregman CHC (0.5 war versus 0.88 expected, year 1 of 5)
Framber Valdez DET (0.2 war versus 0.96 expected, year 1 of 3)
Kyle Tucker LAD (0.6 war versus 1.5 expected, year 1 of 4)

F+ (1 big player):
Tatsuya Imai HOU (-0.2 war versus 0.46 expected, year 1 of 3)
F (5 big players):
Jorge Polanco NYM (-0.3 war versus 0.5 expected, year 1 of 2)
Merrill Kelly ARI (-0.6 war versus 0.5 expected, year 1 of 2)
Devin Williams NYM (-0.3 war versus 0.43 expected, year 1 of 3)
Edwin Diaz LAD (-0.5 war versus 0.58 expected, year 1 of 3)
Josh Naylor SEA (-0.2 war versus 0.46 expected, year 1 of 5)
F- (1 big player):
Bo Bichette NYM (-0.5 war versus 1.05 expected, year 1 of 3)

Pity the Mets for their 3 big deals all being F or below! 5 teams had multiple signings, and the Jays are the only ones with more than 1 positive signing so far (3 positive, 1 negative) although BAL is close with the B-/C- duo, and the Yankees and White Sox only made one signing, but they each were the big signings that is outperforming the most so far. On to the 33 mid contracts:

A (2 mid players):
Nick Martinez TAM (1.7 war versus 0.33 expected, 1 year deal, already 0.4 war above the full year contract expected)
Gregory Soto PIT (1.1 war versus 0.2 expected, 1 year deal, already 0.32 war above the full year contract expected)
A- (1 mid player):
Luis Arraez SFG (1.5 war versus 0.3 expected, 1 year deal, already 0.3 war above the full year contract expected)

B (2 mid players):
Kyle Finnegan DET (0.8 war versus 0.24 expected, 2 year deal)
Raisel Iglesias ATL (0.7 war versus 0.4 expected, 1 year deal)
B- (4 mid players):
Michael Soroka ARI (0.4 war versus 0.19 expected, 1 year deal)
Danny Jensen TEX (0.4 war versus 0.18 expected, 2 year deal)
Steven Matz TAM (0.4 war versus 0.19 expected, 2 year deal)
Seranthony Dominguez CWS (0.4 war versus 0.25 expected, 2 year deal)

C (3 mid players):
Anthony Kay CWS (0.2 war versus 0.15 expected, 2 year deal)
Willi Castro COL (0.2 war versus 0.16 expected, 2 year deal)
Brad Keller PHI (0.3 war versus 0.28 expected, 2 year deal)
C- (1 mid player):
Zach Eflin BAL (0.2 war versus 0.25 expected, 1 year deal)

D+ (2 mid players):
Adolis Garcia PHI (0.0 war versus 0.25 expected, 1 year deal)
Kenley Jensen DET (-0.1 war versus 0.23 expected, 1 year deal)
D (5 mid players):
Ha-Seong Kim ATL (0.0 war versus 0.5 expected, 1 year deal)
Luke Weaver NYM (0.0 war versus 0.28 expected, 2 year deal)
Mike Yastrzemski ATL (0.0 war versus 0.29 expected, 2 year deal)
Eugenio Suarez CIN (0.0 war versus 0.38 expected, 1 year deal)
Zac Gallen ARI (0.1 war versus 0.55 expected, 1 year deal)
D- (12 mid players):
Tyler Mahle SFG (-0.1 war versus 0.25 expected, 1 year deal)
Justin Verlander DET (-0.2 war versus 0.33 expected, 1 year deal)
Dustin May STL (-0.3 war versus 0.31 expected, 1 year deal)
Chris Basset BAL (-0.3 war versus 0.46 expected, 1 year deal)
Sung-Mun Song SDP (-0.1 war versus 0.1 expected, 4 year deal)
Marcell Ozuna PIT (-0.5 war versus 0.3 expected, 1 year deal)
Victor Caratini MIN (-0.3 war versus 0.18 expected, 2 year deal)
Harrison Bader SFG (-0.2 war versus 0.26 expected, 2 year deal)
Michael Lorenzen COL (-0.8 war versus 0.2 expected, 1 year)
Pete Fairbanks FLA (-0.7 war versus 0.33 expected, 1 year deal)
Phil Maton CHC (-0.4 war versus 0.18 expected, 2 year deal)
Emilio Pagan CIN (-0.4 war versus 0.25 expected, 2 year deal)

F+ (1 mid player):
Adrian Houser SFG (-0.9 war versus 0.28 expected, 2 year deal)

So that were the mid deals and you can see they were if anything just as risky as the big deals in terms of success or not, but you can score higher quickly in the mid deals than the big deals and less likely to scrape the very, very bottom of the barrel as much. Lastly I'll do the minor deals but as their are 90 players I'll just list the players under each grade, and unlike in the big and mid where I also loosely rated inside each grade in addition to sharing the stats/contracts, these will just be team/division ordered (AL before NL) at each grade (and all of these except Shelby Miller are 1 year deals):

A+ (2): Aaron Civale OAK, Foster Griffin WAS
A- (1): John King FLA

B+ (2): Leody Taveras BAL, Tomoyuki Sugano COL
B (7): Paul Goldschmidt NYY, Colin Holderman CLE, Sean Newcomb CWS, Erick Fedde CWS, Scott Barlow OAK, Jacob Junis TEX, JJ Bleday CIN
B- (12): Starling Marte KC, Brent Suter LAA, Jalen Beeks TEX, Tyler Alexander TEX, Jorge Mateo ATL, MJ Melendez NYM, Zach Pop PHI, Gary Sanchez MIL, Hoby Milner CHC, Paul Sewald ARI, Taylor Clarke ARI, Jose Quintana COL

C+ (6): Ryan Yarbrough NYY, Paul Blackburn NYY, Lane Thomas KC, Taylor Rogers MIN, Ramon Urias STL, Pierce Johnson CIN
C (4): Yoan Moncada LAA, Tyler Kinley ATL, Caleb Thielbar CHC, Miguel Andujar SDP
C- (18): Jake Fraley TAM, Amed Rosario NYY, Shawn Armstrong CLE, Drew Anderson DET, Kirby Yates LAA, Alek Manoah LAA, Andrew Knizner SEA, Jordan Montgomery TEX, Alexis Diaz TEX, Danny Young ATL, Akil Baddoo MIL, Shelby Miller CHC, Tyler Austin CHC, Miguel Rojas LAD, Sam Hentges SFG, Jason Foley SFG, Ty Adcock SDP, Daison Acosta SDP

D+ (16): Isiah Kiner-Falefa BOS, Danny Coulombe BOS, Alex Lange KC, Jonah Heim ATL, Ian Hamilton ATL, Christopher Morel FLA, Dylan Moore PHI, Yohel Pozo STL, Hunter Harvey CHC, Jacob Webb CHC, Caleb Ferguson CIN, Kike Hernandez LAD, Evan Phillips LAD, Will Brennan SFG, Kyle Hart SDP, Griffin Canning SDP
D (12): Austin Hays CWS, Drew Pomeranz LAA, Jordon Romano LAA, Rob Refsnyder SEA, Chris Martin TEX, Joel Payamps ATL, Luis Rengifo MIL, Ryne Stanek STL, Jose Urquidy PIT, Carlos Santana ARI, Nick Castellanos SDP, German Marquez SDP
D- (9): Max Scherzer TOR, Cedric Mullins TAM, Josh Bell MIN, Ryan Weiss HOU, Mark Leiter Jr OAK, Chris Paddack FLA, Luis Garcia NYM, Miles Mikolas WAS, James McCann ARI

F+ (1): Zack Littell WAS

So that's all the players. I should note all the statistics were looked at after the final Mothers Day games and before any Monday games. Obviously some of these players may improve/get worse and change final ratings on these signings, but based on these early 1/4 of the way through the seasons, this is how I'd be grading. Combining all the contracts I had 6 A grades (2 A+, 2 A, 2 A-), 37 B grades (4 B+, 15 B, 18 B-), 34 C grades (7 C+, 7 C, 20 C-), 61 D grades (18 D+, 17 D, 26 D-), and 9 F grades (3 F+, 5 F, 1 F-) which seems like a reasonable distribution of grades and about what you'd expect given how many below replacement level performances we've seen from this set of signings. A lot of D/F grades, but generally well earned! And the Jays look to have done pretty well with their signings so far.

FWIW, Guerrero Jr. has the lowest HR/PA of any Blue Jay position player with 70 PAs or more (9 other players).  It would help if that changed.

I was happy with Vlad when he was hitting .330.
They pitch around him, so the HR is the last thing he needs to focus on.
He slugs when they don't want to walk him.

God I hate the Rays.

And I hate even more the fact that they look seriously legit this year.

The Mets offseason is a created problem.
They didn't want to pay Alonso who is the franchise HR hitter.
This created a weird game of musical chair where they moved players to sign other players at their position.
Fantasy baseball does not work in real life

They need a plan to pitch to Simpson.

Let's take his walk on Friday, for example.
First pitch high called for strike, maybe 5 inches over the zone.
Fourth ball called strike three but he appeals and walk putting Springer in scoring position.
Scores the second run on a perfect slides home on the sac fly.

If he doesn't walk that inning, the Jays don't score and it's 0-0 after 9.

I don't see why "pitching to live hitters" doesn't involve pitching in complex games (re Bieber)

With this pitching staff (now healthy) and the top of their lineup, this Rays team is a handful.

off a lefty! wowza!

Springer and Vladdy not hitting is absolutely killing the Jays. Springer looks possibly hurt and probably shouldn't be playing and Vladdy looks completely off.

Realistic take: that was a fun game to watch. Springer is what, less than a month into his season with his injury? Vlad will likely finish the year somewhere simialr to the past 2 years. Okamoto is playing excellent. What is frustrating about this team?

It's not that one person isn't performing to their max. Dylan Cease is performing very well and they are still losing many of his games pitched. Kevin Gausman is pitching well when he loses and bad when he gets run support like today. Can the manager do anything?

This is a .500 team with the injuries but they are 5 games under because of errors and mistakes that have cost them games. Between Schneider's use of Hoffman earlier in the year, the error games from Heinemann and Valenzuela and the Lauer starts - this team has given away at least 5 games with there. Mix in the FO's love-in with Lenin Sosa and I think it's easy to see why they are 5 games under.

Once the team gets Kirk and Bieber back they will be much better. If they are not then I think it's realistic to wonder why the players haven't performed. If there is one area to focus in on to see a difference between 2026 and 2025 I would say its the disappearance/slow start of Kirk and Springer in the line up. It basically means Vlad can be pitched around since Okamoto alone is not enough.

There's been a lot of talk of Heineman's struggles this year, but I will note that he has a higher batting average than Cal Raleigh.

Raleigh's first six weeks have been something. He's on pace for approximately 220 strikeouts.

Hard to overcome the raw number of key injuries. Kirk, Bieber, Barger, Springer, Scherzer, Berrios, Ponce, Lukes, Garcia, etc. Some bigger than others, but a lot of key pieces there. When you have 8 planned ML starters at the beginning of spring and end up having to sign Corbin and now have a rule 5 pick in Miles as one of your starters you know something went grossly wrong. And some of those injuries were total freak show ones (Ponce and Kirk especially - nothing could've been done to prevent those). As others have said, Valenzuela has been a wonderful find - not bad for Will Wagner who many were unhappy to see traded (OPS+ of 7 for SD after the trade, in 31 PA in AAA this year hitting 300/548/350 though only played May 1st to 9th so far). Guess the Jays pro scouting department does a good job.

First and third, one out, and a chance to get back into the game. Clement comes up and hits an infield popup on the first pitch, while Gimenez takes 3 pitches before smashing one on the inner half for a 3-run HR.

Clement .290/.310/.407 2HR 12RBI -0.34 Win Probability Added
Gimenez .252/.275/.422 5HR 23RBI 0.95 Win Probability Added

Maybe RBI have zero predictive value, but they sure as heck mean a lot to your team being able to win ballgames.

Bieber and Berrios were known injuries in the offseason. Scherzer didn't make it through last season uninjured and Father Time is undefeated. Ponce is the only pitcher injury that you could call unexpected or bad luck. Frankly, Corbin has probably pitched as well as you could have expected Berrios and Scherzer to pitch. I'm not suggesting that injuries aren't a portion of the Jays' 2026 story but I think that people also need to focus a bit more on poor/mediocre performance from the non-injured players.

Frankly I think you can kinda just look at one guy - Vladdy. He's been very disappointing. They needed him to carry this offense, and he's been merely a good singles hitter. That has to change for them to have a chance.

i was pretty happy with vladdy up until a few weeks ago. the power wasn't there but everything else was better than ever...and his power always, always comes.

and so I cringed a little a couple weeks ago when the announcers started talking about how vladdy "knew he had to hit for more power" and was "making some changes at the plate" to get more power because imo that's what led to vladdy's poor seasons in the past.....and now his swing is a mess and he can't do anything up there.

Should just kept doing what was working imo. The power would have come eventually. Bad idea to make changes when your overall production is still elite.

There are three more guys who are materially underperforming what they provided offensively last year - Springer, Varsho and Heineman. Heineman's season was almost certainly a fluke and that performance has largely been offset by what Valenzuela has provided. Varsho has reverted to being the league average hitter that he's been for his career, so that is what it is. Springer is the other huge issue.

Nigel sometimes I have a hard time understanding your point. June pointed out that it's hard to overcome the amount of injuries the team has encountered to its regulars. It's either hard to or it's not hard to. Your response is to look at the mediocrity and poor performance of the non injured pitchers. What good does that do if the plan was for the regulars to be playing? If Ponce, Scherzer and Berrios were expected to be healthy then why would we look at guys like Corbin, Lauer and Fleming when they were never supposed to be part of the equation? Doesn't make any sense.

Yesavage, Gausman, Cease and everyone in the bullpen not named Hoffman have been good. Even Hoffman has been babip punished. Which expected regulars are we supposed to focus on that have been mediocre? Brendon Little who was jettisoned at the beginning of the season? You make it sound like a rotation with only Gausman, Cease and Ponce taking regular turns was the actual expectation which is not accurate.

Scherzer finished last year strong. Berrios was ramping up and looked healthy and good in spring training.

Last note, I'm not a big fan of all the lumping in that's happening with Bieber. Dude is a legit stud and is t being rushed back. I bet he puts in 2/3rds worth of top 2 starter innings from June through September not h like Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell. Acting like he's a done body this year like Ponce is silly imho.

If i take last year's weighted Runs Created (cumulative stat, not a rate stat like wRC+), and then look at this year's weighted Runs Created over 41 games and pace that out to 162gms, that should give us an indicator which shows the impact of BOTH performance AND injuries, I think.

Last year wRC --> This year wRC paced for 162gms

Team 815 -----> Team 664 (-151)


Varsho 39 -----> Varsho 71 (+32)
Gimenez 30 ----> Gimenez 59 (+29)
Clement 67 ----> Clement 75 (+8)
Lukes 53 ------> Sanchez 55 (+2)
Bichette 99 ---> Okamoto 99 (--)
Guerrero 109 --> Guerrero 95 (-14)

Kirk 69 -------> Kirk 8 (-61)
Barger 63 -----> Barger 0 (-63)
Springer 114 --> Springer 32 (-82)


Straw 32 ------> Straw 47 (+15)
Santander 16 --> Lukes 20 (+4)
Schneider 34 --> Schneider 24 (-10)
Heineman 25 ---> Heineman 0 (-25)

Loperfido 18 ---> Pinango 20 (+2)
Wagner 13 ----> Sosa 12 (+1)
France 11 ----> Jimenez 12 (-1)
Roden/Clase/IKF/Stefanic/Buddy/Robertson/Sanchez 24 ---> Valenzuela 36 (+12)



tbh it's really really hard not to look at Springer, Kirk, and Barger as the main cause of the offensive struggles, both because of injuries and because they've sucked when they've been healthy too.

That's a good breakdown Ugly. So Springer, Kirk and Barger have caused the biggest drop off and all three have been injured. No surprises here and no "they are all aging or levelling off or reverting back to the mean" excuses. They need to come back healthy and be given some time to get caught up.

The rest of this month will probably determine if it matters in June when Bieber, Kirk, Garcia and hopefully Springer are all back AND performing as expected. Barger news is not good.

Mitch Bannon -

“Wouldn’t expect a massive move from the Blue Jays, if they do go outside the org. Bigtime SPs just aren’t often moved in early May. One name to consider is Chris Paddack, recently released by the Marlins. ERA this year isn’t good (7.63), but he’s stretched out and throws strikes.”

Thanks no thanks.

Heinemen isn't a surprise at all. Last year was clearly a fluke. He likely won't be this bad all year, but he isn't a good hitter. Lots of Jays issues like that. Kirk and Barger both bad but so few abs. Aside from injuries, the bad surprises for me are: Springer not hitting at all, Vlad have almost no power, Varsho's defense declining, Ernie's defense being bad.

One of the more annoying parts of this season so far:

Fangraphs WAR

1. NYY 15.9 (9.2bat/6.7pit) --- .619 (#4)
2. LAD 15.8 (9.4bat/6.4pit) --- .585 (#6)
3. ATL 13.3 (9.2bat/4.1pit) --- .683 (#1)
4. CHC 12.7 (9.8bat/2.9pit) --- .659 (#3)
5. PIT 11.6 (6.1bat/5.5pit) --- .537 (#9)
6. TOR 9.7 (4.5bat/5.1pit) ---- .439 (#23)

Barger and Kirk have played so few games that blaming them for the team's poor play doesn't make much sense. The team was fine with them around. Springer has certainly been a problem, though.

in those cases it'd be blaming their injuries more than them.

anyways, i thought it was a useful exercise.

but there's more than one way to skin a cat of course.



CF 113wrc+ #4 --> 112wrc+ #7 (-1)
RF 104wrc+ #12 -> 53wrc+ #29 (-51)
LF 111wrc+ #10 -> 121wrc+ #7 (+10)
3B 102wrc+ #10 -> 124wrc+ #8 (+22)
SS 129wrc+ #3 --> 77wrc+ #24 (-52)
2B 75wrc+ #26 --> 121wrc+ #8 (+46)
1B 125wrc+ #9 --> 109wrc+ #16 (-16)
C 115wrc+ #4 ---> 59wrc+ #25 (-56)
DH 133wrc+ #4 --> 63wrc+ #27 (-70)



So SS and 2B have flipped from last year, not surprising with Gimenez swapping over.

CF about the same.

1B somewhat worse, but 3B and LF somewhat better.

but with DH, C, and RF falling off a cliff - which again leads us mostly to the health/performance of Springer, Kirk, Barger.

I'm not worried about Springer yet. He has 86 ABs around a foot injury. I'll wait another 70 ABs or so.

Thanks uglyone - I was just about to do that when I read your comment. Clearly DH-C-SS-RF are the killers for offense this year which is the big difference. Springer (injuries and ineffective when healthy), Kirk (injured)-Heineman (bat is dead), shifting from Bo (low D/all O) to Gimenez (all D/low O) at SS was inevitable, offset by the jump at 2B. Combine the two and you get a net -6 which is secondary (anything under 10 either way is luck imo). Net of -168 if I added correctly, but DH-C-RF = 177 so it is obvious where the problem lies - with 3 guys who were injured and ineffective when healthy (Springer-Kirk-Barger).

Quite the long winded way to get to the obvious conclusion. Okomoto has replaced Bo's bat, so 3B-2B-SS are a wash. Vlad is down a touch but nothing to panic over (we've seen this before from him). LF/RF is a dogs breakfast while they figure out how to handle Barger being out - Sanchez-Schneider-Lukes all sub 90 wRC+ has hurt a lot, as they were plans A-B-C for LF but plan D seems to be working out in Piñango (hadn't factored him in at all pre-season). Straw has been WOW with a 130 wRC+ (who knew?) - suddenly those 27 and 28 club options are looking very good indeed. Barger a disaster (2 wRC+ but only 28 PA) outside of defense. At DH Eloy Jiménez was supposed to help but an 83 wRC+ later and he is gone. Sosa has been at DH/1B/2B and is a total disaster with a 50 wRC+ from an all bat guy (now at 55 PA with 0 walks).

On the plus side is Valenzuela at 114 now for wRC+, trying to replace Heineman and his 2 (yes, his wRC+ equals his position and the smell when he is hitting).

For defense, 1+ run via FG for Valenzuela (#1 on the Jays, go figure), Gimenez, Heineman, and Okamoto. Negative runs for Clement (-2.6), Springer (DH penalty), Sanchez also below -2, Vlad & Eloy below -1, in the -0.x category are Straw (???) & Sosa. So Clement & Straw not being themselves on defense is an issue, but odds are it is just small sample size and they'll get back to normal soon.

I fully expect the Jays to go on a strong run soon, as there really isn't much reason for them not to. That C-DH-RF mess needs sorting out. They need to just put Pinango in LF and leave him until his bat cools. Use Straw and Sanchez in RF, bench Sosa and use Schneider more (at least he can take a walk and work a pitcher).

Gimenez hits two hrs, including one off of a lefty, and is sitting so that Sosa can hit fifth again. He's going to hit a HR again one of these games and Jays will justify playing him for another terrible 50 PAs.

Possible approaches.  Consider using Fluharty as an opener if Miles is your bulk guy.  Move in your outfielders to reduce BABIP on bloopers and line-drives.  Pitch him up and away and move the infield around to the left.  

Bref splits shows he sucks against power pitchers and Excels against finesse pitchers. That seems to be defined by how many Ks a pitcher get which makes sense.

I think they platoon him.

The Lenin Sosa experiment is now officially the Lenin Sosa Saga.

Not sure there's a hitter in baseball with worse abs than Vlad right now (I'm sure there are... But not many)

I keep hoping someone sees why the Jays wanted him. I just see nothing there and I looked. Hoped some split, some history, but there is nada there. Just once had a 900+ OPS - in winter ball (392/451/765 in 24/25), in '22 in AA/AAA he hit 315/369/511. Appears to have peaked at #5 with a 45 FV (via FG) for the White Sox prospects, never a top 100 in MLB. Really need to dump him already - and if all this negativity doesn't get him to hit today I don't know what will :)

just a killer at bat by mullin there who's been terrible all year. might be the game.

When are the real Toronto Blue Jays gonna show up?

I am afraid these may be the real Toronto Blue Jays.

do they dare send pinango down a 2nd time?

"When are the real Toronto Blue Jays gonna show up?"

Okay, bottom of the seventh. Got it!

I'm starting to wonder if this team is better without Varsho starting. His defense I can see now has taken a step back and his bat in the line up is weak without power. He was out of the line up for most of last year.

That was a clear error on Okamoto. The team defense has taken a big step back (pretty much everywhere).

Speaking of that whats up with Ernie?

Heartwarming comeback, but after Varland tired, we had no more bullpen answers to the Rays bats. Our 5-run inning felt like a fluke compared to the inevitability of the Rays scoring against our pitching staff. Right now, it feels like we'll be lucky to win more than 2 games against the Rays all year..

Ernie's range has cratered (from 98th percentile range to 9th????) but Jays athleticism seems to have just vanished. Sprint speed percentile last year vs this year:
Ernie 83/57
Varsho 77/47
Springer 66/23
Vlad 36/17

Very hard to understand but it's very concerning.

I wonder if it is partially a hold over from the shorter offseason due to making it all the way to the end of World Series? You wouldn't think that would impact especially the position players but the defense and sprint speed being down has been an unpleasant surprise.

Sprint speed percentile last year vs this year:

Ernie & Daulton have (had?) elite young player skills (range, sprint speed, etc). But Clement is already 30 & Varsho will be in July. They seem like younger players because of their relative cost control. But they are already on the wrong side of the speed/defense curve.

George is just really old but had a late career year. I recall last year the broadcast would mention over & over how few 34+ players there were in the league starting as a position player daily. We're talking single digits.

And George is another year older now. And a few more nagging injuries in.

Vlad also is 27 and not really that young anymore. It was neat that he had average-to-slightly-below speed for a slugger in his younger years (and Superman enthusiasm if he sniffed an extra base).

But Vlad also has a body type that was never going to age well either wrt things like speed & range.

Not sure if anyone noticed, but I mentioned I thought Ernie Clement looked slower but just using my eyes in the first week of the season.

It’s hard to argue that the extra month plus the team played late last year isn’t the main cause of this slow start. Obviously, injuries haven’t helped. It hasn’t been quite as demoralizing, but this year rings a little bit of 2013, with expectations so sky high but the team not able shake injuries and some underperformance. The difference being AA basically emptied the tank in the winter that previous year to get some stars, whereas these days, it seems like Rogers is willing to spend their way out of these situations. I look forward to seeing how much they are willing to give up in trade/and or take on in salary to get this team back to the playoffs.

The problem with the extra month theory is the Dodgers also played that extra month - and they are 24-18. Is it a factor? Sure. But I think the bigger factor is simple aging and trying to get going again after the rush of a WS and for some the time in the WBC (Vlad & Clement especially). Hard to get up for Tampa Bay after all of that. Come summer things should get better as they get fully into routines. Kind of glad the Jays didn't sign Varsho long term last winter (I was pushing for it) as he certainly doesn't look like he did the past few years (injuries adding up?). We'll see what happens as the year goes on.

Petey and Pooks, I like both your proposals for the main reason why there's been a steep decline for "Varsh" and Ernie. Perhaps it is due to the long season and shorter layoff for Ernie (Petey's suggestion) but more age related and possibly injury- related for Daulton who has had shoulder and leg injuries last year.

This team is still competitive and I can see them finishing May at .500 but they will need Springer and Vladdy to pick up the slack to get there. Once there they will be a much better team with "Kirkie," and "Beebs."

Quotations are for John Schneider-approved nicknames.

Ernie is one of my favourite players but, objectively, his value has been in proving to be an average to a bit above average player on minimal contracts with no acquisition cost. Varsho and Ernie are very similar players (minus the acquisition cost) and, as noted, similarly aged (and on the wrong part of the aging curve for their skills). I think defence can slump and injuries can also play a role but the longer term future isn't bright for either. The key is not to get into a Gimenez type long term contract for them given their ages. Gimenez at least has age on his side. I do think the defence would look better with Gimenez at 2B and Ernie at 3B but that ship has sailed.

Ernie was signed as a free agent (due to being released by the A's) - not a full free agent again until after 2028. Net earnings $7.327 mil as a Jay. Damn cheap, and most of that pay is for this year ($4.6 mil). Varsho was expensive (Gurriel and Gabriel Moreno) - worked well for both though as both have made it to the WS with the guys they got. Gabby just has a 66 OPS+ this year though, 8.9 bWAR with Arizona. Varsho 95 OPS+ this year, 12.1 bWAR here. Gurriel has a 44 OPS+ (ugh) but I only count his first year since he was a free agent after that (2.9 bWAR, 4.9 total in Arizona). I'd say that was as close to even for a trade as humanly possible.

Looking up old transactions at BR - the last time the Jays traded with the Angels was March 31st, 2021 (getting Juan Graterol for unknown - he had a 714 OPS in Buffalo that year and left as a free agent after that season, last played in the majors in 2019). Only 2 trades during Atkins time as GM - both involving Graterol for PTBNL or cash. The Angels and the Jays just don't match up often I guess. For comparison there have been 9 trades between the Jays and Astros since AA left (5 during AA's time, 5 all other years).

Hmm... Varsho, Clement, and Springer are all 'run through the wall' types - logically they should have more injuries that guys who don't do that. Injuries just mean 'suck it up' to them. Guys like that are great to watch, loved by managers, coaches, and other players. But odds are their careers pay a price for it.

It's so wild to see this from Varsho, he looks like a completely different player out there. Even the balls he gets to, he's making them look much more difficult than in years past. It's at the point where I have been wondering if Straw is a better CFer.

Team just looks awful right now. Can't hit, no power, slow, mediocre fielding. Getting harder to be optimistic about a turnaround.

a 1 run lead looks insurmountable right now.

we finally pinch hit for the backup C....


....and it's with Sosa.

and rays pull the lefty for the righty and sosa hits into the soft double play.

nice one, coach.

I don't even blame Schneider. It's the FO that is clearly and inexplicably enamoured with Sosa and so I guess you've got to him some abs. He had a 42 WRC+ and - 0.4 WAR going into tonight's game and 0 walks in 90 PAs. What's he still doing on the Jays? Get someone who is fast and can pinch run or someone who is good defensively if you can't find someone who can hit.

but like he never pinch hits for the catcher, and when he does, it's almost always with the other catcher. and valenzuela has been hilariously better than sosa at the plate this year so why now of all times do you change your habits.

and Davis was on the bench too.

we're absolutely dying for a run get two guys on and pinch hit with lenyn friggin sosa it's insanity.

tie is nice but please dear god let us get the lead this inning.

Varsho just has so little chance against anyone with elevated velocity. I kind of feel sorry for him in those situations.

Thoughts someone at Blue Jay Way should have:

- Drop Lenin Sosa
- Keep Pinango, Springer and Vlad in the line up every day
- Play Schneider more since if he's as bad as others at least he walks
- play Valenzuela every day
- steal bases
- move Vlad up (since he's willing to practice T-Ball for 45 minutes to try to end his cold streak)

This BV at bat has HR written all over it.

Really not a good spot to put Hoffman into...

Notwithstanding the result, just an excellent AB for Valenzuela.

hoffman's not getting any better.

Just horrible hanging sliders from Hoffman.

This is not bad BABIP luck. Just bad pitching.

I’d be happy to never see Hoffman pitch once during the rest of my life.

thank you thor, athena, vishnu, horus, and sweet baby jesus.

Good for Varsho. He can hit 91 at the top of the zone.

DAMN Varsho, will never doubt you again!

It is great for Varsho. Save the negativity for tomorrow Nigel.

The Jays got some luck tonight, Tampa only had a pitcher with left who had an 8.31 ERA in AAA this year.

Dalimon - I’m not going to engage. It’s tiresome. Enjoy your baseball. I’ll be back to the Box in a few months.

Luckily the Rays were out of leverage guys and that pitcher didn't *quite* have the velocity to get it by Varsh.

Most importantly, it's two months till they have to play the Rays again.

"The Jays got some luck tonight, Tampa only had a pitcher with left who had an 8.31 ERA in AAA this year."

and the jays only had Sosa to pinch hit. lucky rays.

Wasn’t watching (only following) but if the Jays are going to actually get going to anywhere this year, that sure feels like a season-saving hit from Varsho. Weird to see him hit one out the other way but he’s been consistently tardy on his swing for what feels like the entire season. Picked a good time to keep one fair.

Also agree it’s well beyond time to jettison Sosa. Even if there’s something behind the scenes that’s making him beloved by staff and teammates (maybe he’s a HoF-calibre clubhouse DJ, or he’s always bringing people snacks, or he’s a really good wingman when the players go out… Who knows) I just don’t see any MLB-level skill on field that can help this team right now. Worth a flyer at the time I suppose but he’s seen a fair chance and has been terrible with it.

I agree with the general sentiment: desperately needed win. And Sosa needs to go whenever the next guy comes off the IL, or maybe call up Kasevich, or try to trade for some AAA RHB with huge platoon splits who can play the infield or outfield and can platoon with Lukes or Gimenez?

And, sadly, Heineman needs to be the one to go when Kirk is ready, if not before. -0.9 WAR in 23 games is bad. Seriously, even just picking up a 0 WAR catcher off the waiver wire would be an improvement. He was so good last year (clearly a fluke). Seems like a great guy, unfortunately.

Speaking of topsy-turvy - anyone predict that the highest SLG of returning players in the middle of May would be Myles Straw?!? And Vlad would be #9? Only thing saving Vlad at this point is OBP and taking walks - at least he's still doing that.

Hoffman needs to be come the long/swing man. Maybe he can still spot start? Clearly, the higher the leverage, the worse he pitches.

Baker couldn't find the zone today. It happens.

Vlad walks because they don't throw strikes to him.
Two walks on 4 pitches tonight.
He doesn't have the knack like Okamoto to hit outside pitches.

Nigel, your posts slant to pessimism and a fresh call out is sometimes necessary to balance it all out. I'll take your response as your own call out of myself and will cool my fun police jets. No need to be sour or lower the discourse here by leaving.

even if you wouldn't know it right now.

Ah, but are you accounting for the magic Tampa Bay pixie dust? I don't know how many seasons have started where I've thought that surely this year's slop pile of organizational discards cannot possibly be fashioned into a competitive Rays team... and I am proven wrong. And this year's team seems no different. Some definite talent, to be sure, but lots of everything else.

Before I write them and their .667 winning percentage off, I'll maybe choose this year to let the story play itself out. This organization knows about over-delivering.

Games like last night's do seem to illustrate the deficiencies that have to inevitably show when an organization refuses to spend any money. Aaron Brooks has absolutely no business in the major leagues, the team's longstanding skill of turning sows' ears into silk purses notwithstanding. (I now cower in the corner awaiting his seemingly inevitable transition into a serviceable arm.)

Imagine if Wander Franco had not proven to be a reprehensible human being. He'd almost certainly be a 25-year old superstar.

I read Nigel's post as a statement of fact sans negativity, a follow up to his previous one. It's all about tone, with the emphasis on "can".

Vladdy might walk because pitchers don't throw him strikes, but unfortunately Clement does not. The dude watched 4 hitters walk in front of him, and then with the bases loaded he comes up and swings at two bad pitches to bail the pitcher out.

Frankly the team's play this year deserves more pessimism than sunshine so i don't know why anyone would feel the need to call anyone out for being negative.

I am going to take a break from posting for a while because getting irritated at a poster on the Box with all that is going on in the world is the height of stupidity on my part. I'll just say that one of the fabulous things about the Box, and what separates it from 99% of the online community, is the lack of personalized comments.

You can view my posts as tilting towards negativity if you like. Like most things in the world I don't approach my fandom in black and white. Nothing is absolute sunshine and nothing is absolute thunderstorms. Take but three examples from last night. Valenzuela came up in a very high leverage AB and flew out. Notwithstanding the outcome, my opinion was that he'd had a great AB. Hoffman has had a rough year but its a fact that a chunk of that has been bad BABIP luck. Last night wasn't one of those times - in my opinion he was hanging sliders, pitch after pitch. Finally, its a fact that Varsho can't hit elevated velocity but he can hit elevated FBs at lower velocities. I was genuinely happy from Varsho because he had been wiped out in the previous AB.

Anyway, I have zero idea why I feel the need to justify what I wrote (another reason to stay away). But my overriding thought is - please have different views on opinions, feel free to point out when I am wrong on opinions or facts (I am wrong far more than I am right) - those are the elements of what makes the Box so interesting - but please leave personalizing and policing of the approach to fandom that doesn't match your own out of the Box. But that's just my view. Enjoy your baseball.

Offday Plausible Best Lineups....


Using Past 1 Calendar Year...

1. DH Springer 550pa, .377obp, 151wrc+, 4.5war650
2. 1B Guerrero 684pa, .382obp, 135wrc+, 3.7war650
3. 3B Okamoto 177pa, .328obp, 121wrc+, 4.0war650
4. C Alejandro 403pa, .352obp, 121wrc+, 6.5war650
5. CF Varsho 394pa, .302obp, 117wrc+, 4.5war650
6. 2B Schneider 279pa, .355obp, 120wrc+, 3.3war650
7. SS Clement 650pa, .316obp, 103wrc+, 3.3war650
8. RF Barger 471pa, .296obp, 102wrc+, 2.8war650
9. LF Straw 306pa, .327obp, 99wrc+, 3.8war650

B. UT Sanchez 547pa, .302obp, 98wrc+, 1.4war650
B. OF Lukes 420pa, .307obp, 95wrc+, 2.2war650
B. IF Gimenez 376pa, .286obp, 80wrc+, 2.4war650
B. C Valenzuela 70pa, .300obp, 105wrc+, 6.5war650

X. UT Pinango 39pa, .410obp, 138wrc+, 5.0war650
X. OF Clase 96pa, .313obp, 82wrc+, -0.7war650
X. IF Sosa 490pa, .282obp, 97wrc+, 1.3war650
X. C Heineman 198pa, .302obp, 73wrc+, 3.6war650




Using Fangraphs Depth Chart Projections....

1. DH Springer 452pa, .336obp, 113wrc+, 2.0war650
2. 1B Guerrero 499pa, .380obp, 141wrc+, 4.2war650
3. 3B Okamoto 442pa, .328obp, 116wrc+, 3.5war650
4. C Alejandro 269pa, .347obp, 114wrc+, 6.0war650
5. RF Lukes 170pa, .334obp, 105wrc+, 2.3war650
6. 2B Schneider 237pa, .329obp, 103wrc+, 2.5war650
7. LF Sanchez 309pa, .313obp, 104wrc+, 1.9war650
8. SS Clement 458pa, .310obp, 97wrc+, 2.6war650
9. CF Varsho 442pa, .297obp, 100wrc+, 2.8war650

B. UT Barger 252pa, .313obp, 104wrc+, 1.8war650
B. OF Straw 113pa, .303obp, 78wrc+, 1.2war650
B. IF Gimenez 447pa, .310obp, 94wrc+, 3.1war650
B. C Valenzuela 89pa, .278obp, 74wrc+, 2.2war650

X. UT Santander 15pa, .308obp, 102wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Pinango 82pa, .302obp, 86wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 149pa, .277obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C Heineman 122pa, .292obp, 70wrc+, 2.1war650

Nigel I hear you (and other posters) clearly. Thank you for getting back to me. I hear your view, I like it and I can get on with it without creating issues. Cheers.

Random observation

Jays bullpen by FIP

Varland - 1.40
Rogers - 2.80
Hoffman - 3.21
Nance - 2.56
Mantiply - 2.67
Fluharty - 2.84
Fisher - 3.37
Miles - 3.34

Sometimes the results turn out badly but overall, none of these guys are pitching badly. Maybe they called up Rodriguez specifically so they could run the same game they did last year - option him with confidence no one will claim his contract. (assuming they call up someone who has some length to help Miles cover the 5th turn for a couple of weeks)

tbh the only RP struggling even by ERA are Fluharty and Hoffman. The rest have all been good to very good. Bullpen has been very solid all around.

and Hoffman has rightly lost his role, and I'm pretty sure Mantiply has moved ahead of Fluharty in the lefty depth chart....for now.



Super Elite

Varland 21.7ip, 1.75lev, 10era-, 33fip-, 53xfip- - just awesome really.


Elite

Rogers 19.3ip, 1.30lev, 45era-, 67fip-, 82xfip- - despite some recent wobbles this is still an elite high lev line


Very Good

Fisher 22.7ip, 1.27lev, 77era-, 80fip-, 98xfip- - some wobbles lately but still very good in high lev


Good

Miles 21.0ip, 0.75lev, 73era-, 80fip-, 80xfip- - very good numbers in mid lev
Mantiply 16.0ip, 0.41lev, 55era-, 64fip-, 72xfip- - excellent numbers in low lev
Nance 20.0ip, 0.50lev, 98era-, 61fip-, 66xfip- - excellent numbers in low lev


Average

(Estrada 4.0ip, 0.77lev, 0era-, 74fip-, 84xfip-)
(Yariel 1.0ip, 0.13lev, 0era-, 50fip-, 51xfip-)
(Voth 2.2ip, 1.30lev, 82era-, 83fip-, 148xfip-)


Bad

Fluharty 15.0ip, 1.19lev, 131era-, 68fip-, 91xfip-
Hoffman 18.7ip, 1.41lev, 141era-, 77fip-, 53xfip-

Both these guys still have decent to good underlyings in fairly high lev usage, but keep giving up too many runs.


Ugly

(Little 3.7ip, 1.75lev, 596era-, 308fip-, 92xfip-)
(Heineman 3.0ip, 0.00lev, 364era-, 210fip-, 167xfip-)
(Fleming 3.0ip, 0.87lev, 291era-, 233fip-, 177xfip-)
(Lee 1.7ip, 0.19lev, 164era-, 270fip-, 115xfip-)

unplayable

If Heineman was in any other category it'd be quite weird. As a pitcher he is giving up a 1.283 OPS, as a hitter he has a 352 OPS - 708 is the average in MLB so he is around a 50 for raw OPS/league and 181 for OPS allowed/league. Both hard to achieve. Neither playable really.

The 4 ugly cover 11 1/3 IP out of 381 2/3 IP for the club or 2.969% of the teams innings. We can live with that. Lee I suspect will do better if/when he gets another shot. Heineman won't do any better, but he will get more innings (someone has to do mop up duty).

Richard Dawkins is spouting on about the divine aspect of AI

Wait...what?

But 10.8% of the club's runs allowed!

Dawkins was always a sucker for flattery. that AI buttered him up but good.

Artificial Intelligence has played a major role recently on the Young and the Restless.  Cane Ashby created dangerous A.I. software, which was stolen by Phyllis Summers and obtained by Victor Newman.  Then, Victor used the A.I. program to destroy Cane's company Arabesque.  Cane conspired with Phyllis to make the A.I. turn on its host, which caused Victor's company Newman Enterprises to crumble.  Phyllis betrayed Cane (chloroform) and subsequently stole Victor's company.  Victor created a new A.I. program to incriminate Phyllis and Cane, who were both arrested.  Cane might jump bail to donate his stem cells to save Malcolm Winters' life.

For Tampa Bay pixy dust I did give all the free agents to sign in the off season 1/4 way through the season grades up at the top of this thread at the start of this season. One can look at Tampa Bay's signings and see:

2 mid deals (7.5M to 25M):
A: Nick Martinez TAM (1.9 war versus 0.33 expected, 1 year deal, already 0.6 war above the full year contract expected; this is up from what I did above - maybe the Sunday game hadn't posted when I did it)
B-: Steven Matz TAM (0.4 war versus 0.19 expected, 2 year deal)

2 minor deals (less than 7.5M):
C-: Jake Fraley TAM (Likely he'd improve to C+ given his marginally reasonable performance in Toronto - he's only paid 1 year/3M so doesn't need to do much)
D-: Cedric Mullins TAM (He's still massively struggling both before and after the Toronto series, but still only 6.5M / 1 year with option at 0.5M buyout or 10M mutual for next year - but still Lenyn Sosa is outhitting him to show how bad he's been)

So to have 4 deals where your biggest 2 work out well (one likely in the top 3 overperforms of the off season so far if you include contract length as a parameter), the smallest one is basically even/flat as it was just below even before the series but just above after, and the second smallest has been very bad, but that is still a pretty good set of outcomes.

So about 2.7 war in 1/4 season from around 30M (just below without options buyouts, just above with the buyouts). So the offseason contacts in aggregate are nearly breakeven in value already even with the Mullins struggle.

When you don't have a lot of budget you have to do that sort of thing to compete, but seems like Tampa Bay is often successful at that (for that matter, so is Toronto).

Err, that should be 1.7 war aggregate, not 2.7, so not quite break even, but still well above the 1/4 mark.

Leaside i'm pretty sure Knight Rider had that covered in the 80s!

David Hasselhoff!  who plays Snapper (M.D.) on Y & R.

lol

The batter is in the driver's seat with the bases loaded - you want to swing at your pitch, not the pitcher's. The 1-0 pitch was on the up-and-in corner, and the 2-1 pitch was off the plate outside to a pull hitter. Neither was a pitch that you want to be swinging at in that situation. If Vladdy, a guy who uses the whole field, swings at the 2-1 pitch, it's only because he can do damage with it.

At that moment Sulser had barely thrown 1 strike in 4 pitches, his control was not sharp. It was a bad decision to chase his pitch off the plate.

And really, I'm just trying to get Clement going. Ernie thrives in the spotlight, and doesn't like when people point out that he's allergic to driving in runs.

Anyone else feel like Atkins has been way to quiet? We know from past seasons that they wait until the end of May before determining course for rest of year but I don't think they need to wait another 2 weeks to know what needs to be done with the roster.

(Sorry for continuing the OT)
TIL Victor Newman is still on Y&R (I was sometimes home in the afternoons with nothing much to do as a student in the 90s. I watched maybe 30-40 episodes one semester.. But it's been like 30+ years!). Ok, so Eric Braeden (actor - b. 1941!!) has been playing that part since 1980 - 4400+ episodes.. And the show is coming up on 13,500 episodes in 53 years.. That's 250+ episodes per year.