About four years ago, I produced a series in five parts (it was
supposed to be six!) under the general heading of "Chasing The Big
Numbers." It examined how a number of active players were faring in
pursuit of six fairly Famous Career Milestones.
At that time, the Top 25 or so in each category seemed like a reasonable target for an active player.
Four seasons are in the books since then, and four seasons is a sizeable chunk of any player's career. Some of the guys we were paying attention back in the day have (or seem to have) finished their work (Shawn Green, Frank Thomas), some have fallen by the wayside (Vernon Wells, Hank Blalock), others are calling us to sit up and take notice (David Wright, Grady Sizemore).
Time for an update.
Runs Scored, for some reason, has always been the performance category that gets no respect. Not in my house! The first thing you look for at the end of the day isn't which team had more hits than the other or hit more home runs or drove in more runs. Those things may suggest to you who probably won or lost the game, but what you need to know is which team scored more runs than the other. Everything follows from this, and everything in the game serves this...
I've been looking at six career performance categories: Runs, RBIs, HRs, Hits, Wins, Strikeouts. Runs Scored is the only one of the six that still features the exact same group of players. The Top 25 on the career runs scored list hasn't changed since 2006, although two players already on the list improved their position: Barry Bonds (6th to 3rd and Craig Biggio (24th to 13th.) This is a pretty tough group to crack.
As we head for 2010, Sliding Billy Hamilton still holds the 25th spot with 1690 runs scored. He's not going to hold it for long, however, as there's an active player just 7 runs behind him. So let's take this opportunity to salute the man who still holds the single season record for most runs scored in a single season.
Hamilton was a short (5-6) stocky man with sprinter's speed, who was by far the most aggressive and reckless baserunner of his time. He scored 192 (or was it 196?) runs in 1894 and 166 runs the following year. He averaged better than one run scored for every game he played in his career - there may very well be another player who has managed the same feat, but I don't who it might be. He was the best base stealer in the game, he led his league in BAVG twice, Walks drawn and OBPct five times. He's pretty obviously the greatest leadoff man in the game before Rickey Henderson, and he was certainly a comparable force at his peak. And like Rickey, Hamilton was famous for sliding head-first into bases (I rather think it was Rickey who brought that move back into the game.) Henderson aged much better than Hamilton, who had his last truly great year at age 32 as leg injuries began to grind him down. He retired at age 35. There is very little in the game's literature about him, nothing in the way of colourful anecdotes, nothing about the man who played so brilliantly. He spent his best years in Philadelphia, who were a perennial third place team through his prime. He did join the mighty Boston Beaneaters and played on two league champion teams for them - on that team, slightly past his prime, he was just one of a group of stars, along with Kid Nichols, Hugh Duffy, Jimmy Collins, Herman Long, and Chick Stahl.
And alas, that great Boston team has always been overshadowed by the Baltimore Orioles anyway. The Orioles cleverly placed a couple of their former players (McGraw and Robinson) in New York City where they worked as managers for the next 30 years. There they carefully nourished the legend of the old Orioles as the great team and master innovators of their time. Well, the Orioles were no such thing - they were the Broad Street Bullies of baseball, a dreadful, disgraceful bunch (with the exception of the man who stands right in front of Hamilton on this list, Willie Keeler.) They were thugs and I'm happy to boo and jeer them a century later...
Anyway, here's to Sliding Billy, and his last appearance on the leader board.
There are several players in the Top 25 whose careers have an unusual shape, in that they got started quite late. Because of their late starts, they regularly rank behind an active player who is the same age. One of them was Honus Wagner, who didn't become a regular until he was 24. Such a handicap would have been too much for your normal all-time great to overcome. However, we're speaking of Honus Wagner here - things like getting his career started later than the other guys and playing during one of the lowest scoring periods in the game's history weren't going to stop him. In addition, Wagner aged extraordinarily well.
Two other players in the Top 25 - Charlie Gehringer and Craig Biggio - didn't become regulars until age 23. That Biggio was able to post such impressive career totals despite the late start (and despite beginning his career as a catcher) is remarkable. He is quite possibly the greatest player of the 1990s not named Barry Bonds. As for Gehringer, Detroit's Mechanical Man was famous for how he slowly and relentlessly just kept getting better and better and better. It's very unusual to see a player show such a long history of sustained improvement - and he was a pretty decent player from the day he arrived. Gehringer had a sensational season at age 26 - he set new personal bests in pretty well every offensive category, and led the AL in Hits, Runs, 2b, and SB. When he was 31, he hit .356 with 50 2bs and led the league again in Runs and Hits. When he was 33, he hit .354 with 60 doubles, a feat no one has matched in the past 70 years. When he was 34, he hit a career high .371 to lead the AL.
Finally, two other men - Cap Anson and Orator Jim O'Rourke - made very slow progress on a year-to-year basis, but for a very different reason. Anson and O'Rourke both started in the National Association - the forerunner of the National League - and neither played a 100 game schedule until 1884, when both men were in their early 30s. Luckily, both players were active during the highest scoring era in the history of professional baseball, and both played well into their 40s. O'Rourke scored his 1729 runs in just 1999 games - he scored better than one run a game in nine different seasons. Anson couldn't quite match that pace, but he was 18 months younger, started a year earlier, and hung around for an extra four years at the end.
So - which active players have the best chance to carve a spot for themselves in the Top 25? I assembled what looked like 38 viable candidates and checked to see what kind of progress they were making...
These guys are seeded (for I have indeed listed them in some kind of order) by a Very Crude counting stat. I simply added up the number of players in the Top 25 that our guy is ahead of at his current age. Very Crude indeed... And having been forewarned, you know that it matters which players' pace you're matching or beating. A player now in his 20s or early 30s ought to be ahead of Anson and O'Rourke. Leading those two guys doesn't mean much of anything. Being ahead of Gehringer, Biggio, and even Wagner isn't particularly significant either. But if you're ahead of Mel Ott, you'r doing something pretty impressive...
You can scrutinize in detail each player's progress by examining the Big Honking Data Table that follows this list.
1. Alex Rodriguez (Age-33; Career Best-143; 100 Run Seasons-13) - Rodriguez is ahead of everyone. Ever. Alex Rodriguez has scored more runs through age 33 than any player in major league history. It took him a while to get there. Through age 21, A-Rod had scored 260 runs. That was exactly the same as Mickey Mantle, but there were six players who had scored more runs through that age - Mel Ott, John McGraw, Buddy Lewis, George Davis, Al Kaline, and Ted Williams. Rodriguez slipped behind Mantle as well through age 22, but since then he's been picking off the guys ahead of him and moving up the list. At age 23, he moved ahead of John McGraw, who missed most of the 1896 season. At age 24 Rodriguez scored 134 runs, and shot ahead of Lewis, Kaline, and Williams (who had gone off to war.) By now he trailed just Ott, Davis, and Mantle. He scored another 133 runs at age 25 to overtake Davis, and moved ahead of Mantle at age 27 (1959 was the only season from 1956-1961 when Mantle didn't lead the AL in runs scored.). Through age 29, Ott, Rodriguez, and Mantle were practically in a dead heat, but Rodriguez pulled ahead at age 30, and has been fighting off a challenge from Jimmie Foxx ever since. He needs to score 94 runs in 2010 to have the most runs ever scored through age 34 (Foxx is falling back and the current age 34 leader is Lou Gehrig). A-Rod is obviously very well positioned to make a run at Rickey Henderson's all-time record - he is more than 200 runs ahead of Rickey's pace. It's just a matter of how long he plans to hang around. At any rate, Rodriguez should go past Billy Hamilton sometime in early April and take his own place on the Top 25 all-time.
2. Albert Pujols (Age-29; Career Best-137; 100 Run Seasons-8) - Albert the Great doesn't quite make the Top 10 through age 29, but he's very, very close (he trails the 10th men, Joe Kelley, by just 5 runs.) He is ahead of almost everyone who finished in the Top 25 anyway - he trails only Ott, Foxx, Keeler, Cobb, Aaron, and Gehrig (and Alex Rodriguez.) He has never had a major injury, he has never scored less than 99 runs in a season, and he seems well on his way to joining what is now a Group of 7 with 2000 career runs.
3. Miguel Cabrera (Age-26; Career Best-112; 100 Run Seasons-3) - He seems to be adding weight and I'm not sure how great a player he'll be when he's 35. He hasn't scored 100 runs in a season since he was 23. But there is nothing like starting young, and Cabrera became a regular at age 20 and a star at age 21. I think he's going to need that fast start. He's still ahead of a bunch of guys in the Top 25 - Speaker, Collins, Hamilton, Bonds, Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio. A couple years ago, he was also ahead of Keeler, Musial, Gehrig, Burkett, and Pujols as well. And two years from now, he'll probably have fallen behind Speaker, Collins, Hamilton, Bonds, Williams, and Jeter. He looks good at this particular moment, but I don't think he'll be there in the end.
4. David Wright (Age-26; Career Best-115; 100 Run Seasons-2) - He came up to stay when he was 21, and he's averaged 102 runs a year in his five seasons as a regular. Couldn't get the ball out of the ball park last season - his HRs fell from 33 to 10, and his runs scored from 115 to 88. But the rest of his game was intact, and it doesn't seem to have had anything to do with the new home field. It was probably Just One of Those Things, a one-year blip. I think so, anyway. He's still in very good shape as it stands, ahead of Collins, Hamilton, Bonds, Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio.
5. Hanley Ramirez (Age-25; Career Best-125; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Boston traded him for Beckett and Lowell during Theo Epstein's very brief absence from the Boston front office, and Theo has apparently been trying to get him back ever since. You can see why. Pretty well everything is still possible for this guy. He scored 101 runs last year. That's the lowest figure of his career. He's got a long way to go, but the man is on his way. He's ahead of Bonds, Collins, Hamilton, Molitor, Mays, Yastrzemski, Anson, Rose, Ruth, O'Rourke, Gehringer, Wagner, Biggio
6. Ryan Zimmerman (Age-24; Career Best-110; 100 Run Seasons-1) - Not bad, not bad at all. He was playing regularly at age 21, and he broke through for 110 runs last season. He was a great player in 2009 at age 24, doing absolutely everything you could want a player to do, and off that he has a real chance to be the greatest third baseman since those halcyon days when Mike Schmidt and George Brett were gracing the fields of North America. Of course, that's what I used to think about Eric Chavez - and Chavez looked quite a bit better than Zimmerman at this stage of his career. We know how that's working out. But for the very young, most things are still possible. Zimmerman is the youngest player I've looked at here, and so far he's ahead of Anson, Yastrzemski, Mays, Collins, Hamilton, Molitor, O'Rourke, Rose, Ruth, Gehringer, Biggio, Wagner
7. Derek Jeter (Age-35; Career Best-134; 100 Run Seasons-12) - What a great, great player he's been. Seriously, wow. It's one thing to be outpacing a bunch of Hall of Famers when you're 25. It's quite something else to still be ahead of them when you're 35. He isn't Honus Wagner, but he might actually be the Next Best Thing. He's obviously one of the five greatest players at his position ever, and he's quite possibly the second greatest shortstop ever. (Especially now that we can be sure Rodriguez will end up with career games at 3b than short.) Jeter can certainly stand right beside the other guys lined up behind Wagner (Vaughan, Ripken, Banks, Larkin, Yount). As for career runs scored, I don't think Jeter can catch Rickey - he's 721 runs behind, which is a lot. On the other hand, he loves playing the game and has said he wants to keep playing just as long as he possibly can. One assumes he won't be a shortstop when he's 44, but he just might be around. At the moment, he's ahead of Speaker, Gehringer, Rose, Collins, Williams, Yastrzemski, Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
8. Grady Sizemore (Age-26; Career Best-134; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Sizemore's fifth season was an injury year. First there was a groin problem that took him out of the WBC, and all season there was an elbow problem that he initially attempted to play through. It would eventually land him on the DL for most of June and finally cause the Indians to shut him down with a month left in the season. After averaging 116 runs scored in the four previous seasons, he was down to 73 last year. But he had been quite durable before last season, and he's still ahead of Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio.
9. Jose Reyes (Age-26; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-3) - 2009 was almost a completely lost season for Reyes, but because he has been very good very young, he's still in fine shape both here and on the Hits leader boards. Like Sizemore, he gets a ton of plate appearances. And like Sizemore, he needs to put his injury year behind him. He's still ahead of Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio.
10. Carl Crawford (Age-27; Career Best-104; 100 Run Seasons-2) - I'm a little disappointed. I expected Crawford would be doing much better by now. He should be in the centre of his prime, but he seems to have hit a plateau. He arrived when he was 20 and has been a regular since he was 21, which helps a lot - but despite being a .295 career hitter, he's never been able to get on base very often. Which is why he's never scored a lot of runs in a season. He could still take another step forward, and with his early start still has a chance to pile up a lot of runs (and, especially, hits.) He's ahead of Mays, Ruth, Yastrzemski, Gehringer, Rose, Molitor, Anson, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio
11. Johnny Damon (Age-35; Career Best-136; 100 Run Seasons-10) - Damon has played at least 141 games and scored at least 93 runs in each of the last twelve seasons. He'd probably get a lot more respect if he was driving in runs rather than scoring them, but that's always been the way, right? He's a free agent now, hoping for a four year deal and he'll probably have to settle for three. But even after that's done he will probably have enough game left to hang around for another year or two. It would be a big surprise to me if he doesn't make it to 1800 career runs scored just on the basis of his current momentum. If he has another good year or two left in him - you know, like the season he just had - he'd have a genuine chance to crack the Top 10 of all time, were it not for the fact that Rodriguez and Jeter will get there ahead of him. He's still ahead of Rose, Collins, Williams, Yastrzemski, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, and O'Rourke, which is extremely impressive for a guy his age.
12. Andruw Jones (Age-32; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Jones was so young when he started, and he accomplished so much in his 20s, that he'd climbed a very long way up the mountain that these career accomplishments represent. He went right off the cliff a couple of years ago and we're still watching him fall. Or, should we say, plummet, like a sheep labouring under the impression that he's a bird? The descent is still in progress, as represented by the fact that Jones is actually still ahead of Rose, Gehringer, Yastrzemski, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke. He will finish up ahead of none of those guys, I promise. He's certainly not going to score another 600 runs in his career. I'm not sure he's going to get another 600 at bats.
13. Jimmy Rollins (Age-30; Career Best-139; 100 Run Seasons-5) - He started young, which is a very good thing indeed - but as a player, I think just not good enough. He'll probably have a couple more 100 run seasons - after all, he's batting leadoff in a lineup with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard right behind him. But he's pretty ordinary right now, and in five years he'll be batting eighth. And replaced for a pinch-hitter. For now, he's ahead of Yastrzemski, Rose, Gehringer, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke and he'll probably slip past 1600 career runs before it's finally over.
14. Manny Ramirez (Age-37; Career Best-131; 100 Run Seasons-6) - He's still an outstanding hitter, and he's probably got another contract push left in him. He's a good enough hitter to play until he's 42 or 43 if he wants to. He's not going to score a lot of runs while he's doing that, but he should end up with enough to catch Mel Ott at least and he actually has an outside chance to make it to 2000. He's ahead of Biggio, Yastrzemski, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
15. Vladimir Guerrero (Age-33; Career Best-124; 100 Run Seasons-6) - He can still hit, but he appears to be falling apart right in front of us. In his six seasons in the AL, Vlad has scored 124, 95, 92, 89, 85, and 59 runs. So presumably we can expect something like 56, 52, 50, and 21 over the next four years? Obviously that won't be good enough. Needs to find a way to avoid the physical breakdowns (which seem to be happening all over his body) and stay in the lineup. He was a great player, and he's still ahead of Yastrzemski, Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
16. Carlos Beltran (Age-32; Career Best-127; 100 Run Seasons-7) - The fourth player on this list - so far! - who lost significant time to injury in 2009. Beltran is the second oldest of this Gang of Four (behind Guerrero) and he looks like the second best bet going forward (behind Sizemore, the youngest.) This is because he's a much better player than Jimmy Rollins and seems a much better bet to stay in the lineup than Vlad. Beltran can be erratic from year to the next - his runs scored by season in the last six years has been 121, 83, 127, 93, 116, 50. I think he's a very underrated player, possibly the first such creature in the history of New York baseball. I think he's easily good enough to play another seven or eight years, and should wind up with at least 1750 runs (and maybe 450 HRs and 2800 hits as well.) He's ahead of Yastrzemski, Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
17. Adam Dunn (Age-29; Career Best-107; 100 Run Seasons-3) - He started very young, but he's steadily losing ground against the field. He's still ahead of Gehringer, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke - however he's extremely unlikely to ever score 100 runs in a season again, unless he comes up with a 60 HR season.
18. Ken Griffey (Age-39; Career Best-125; 100 Run Seasons-6) - He started even younger (and better) than Dunn. Griffey being 10 years further along, we can see that Junior has indeed given all that early ground gained back to the field. This is probably his last season, a farewell lap, and he could end up passing Billy Hamilton and possibly cracking 1700 runs scored for his career. But even if he does, A-Rod will get there first. He's ahead of Molitor, Yastrzemski, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke for the moment, but it's not going to help. A great career anyway.
19. Edgar Renteria (Age-33; Career Best-100; 100 Run Seasons-2) - He's been playing regularly since he was 20, and he's always been able to stay in the lineup, but his offensive game is melting away from underneath him. At this rate he won't be playing regularly in three years. For now he's ahead of Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke - but he's going be life and death to crack the Top 100 all-time (currently Larry Walker with 1355). No chance for the Top 25.
20. Adrian Beltre (Age-30; Career Best-104; 100 Run Seasons-1) - I like Beltre a lot. I think he's the Norm Cash of his time. He's a very good player whose career has been hard to get a handle on because of one monstrously flukey season. Beltre is a terrific glove and a decent enough hitter. Plus he's spent his entire career working in a couple of the better pitcher's parks in the game, so he really ought to enjoy playing in Fenway in 2010. However, he's not likely to actually end up high atop the various career leader boards. He's simply not that good. The early start, and the one big year, is why he's ahead of the pace set by Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke. He won't actually catch any of them.
21. Rafael Furcal (Age-31; Career Best-130; 100 Run Seasons-4) - He's basically where Jimmy Rollins will be in a year or two. A useful offensive player in his prime, at the top of his game - when you can hit him at the top of the lineup and have him score lots of runs for you. But he's not a good enough hitter to do that for you once he's past that point in his career. Which is where Furcal is now, and where Rollins is about to be. Furcal is still ahead of the pace set by Wagner, Biggio, Anson, O'Rourke and highly unlikely to actually catch any of them.
22. Mark Teixeira (Age-29; Career Best-112; 100 Run Seasons-4) - He's quite the hitter, but he didn't get started until he's 23 - and as a 23 year old rookie, he played 146 games, hit 26 HRs, and somehow scored only 66 runs. He's ahead of Wagner, Biggio, Anson, O'Rourke which isn't very impressive - in fact, he's practically in a dead heat with O'Rourke, who at Teixeira's age had never scored more 71 runs in a season (because he'd never played more than 86 games.)
The next three players - Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, and Bobby Abreu - are ahead of three men in the Top 25. Unfortunately, it's the three players most notorious for getting a late start: Honus Wagner, Cap Anson, and Jim O'Rourke.
23. Gary Sheffield (Age-40; Career Best-126; 100 Run Seasons-7) - A few years back, Sheffield was making a run at a spot on this list - through age 36, he was ahead of Yastrzemski, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, and O'Rourke. He had scored 345 runs in his last three seasons. But old players will break down, won't they? While Sheffield probably has enough left as a hitter to DH for someone for a year or two and drag his career total north of 1700 runs, it won't be enough to land him a spot on the Revised Leader Board.
24. Chipper Jones (Age-37; Career Best-123; 100 Run Seasons-8) - He's been a tremendous offensive player, but injuries cost him a full season at the very beginning of his career and he didn't get his first full season until age 23. Then, after being extremely durable through age 31, he missed about 30 games like clockwork every year since then. Now he's coming off a season so dreadul that he's talking about retiring. Well, his OPS+ of 118 actually is pretty terrible, at least for Chipper Jones. He's still ahead of Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke. I think he'll quit if he has another year like last year, but I don't expect that to happen in 2010.
25. Bobby Abreu (Age-35; Career Best-123; 100 Run Seasons-8) - Didn't play regularly until he was 24, and has slipped quite a bit from his age 25-30 peak. Still a very fine player, of course. He's ahead of Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke but won't catch any of them.
26. Dustin Pedroia (Age-25; Career Best-118; 100 Run Seasons-2) - Pedroia and Ryan Braun are very good young players who got off to slightly late starts. That's why they're both so poorly positioned on this list at the moment. Pedroia, however, has actually led the AL in runs scored in two of his three seasons and for that reason alone I'm inclined to take him somewhat seriously. He was 23 in his first year as a regular. As we know, among the men in the Top 25 almost everyone on the list was already playing regularly by age 22 except the three men Pedroia and Braun are ahead of (Gehringer, Wagner, and Biggio.) It's going to be very hard for Pedroia to keep up with any of those guys - on the other hand he's young enough and could very well prove good enough to overtake someone else.
27. Ryan Braun (Age-25; Career Best-113; 100 Run Seasons-1) - He had a late start, but he's quite a hitter right now. He needs to get a little bit better though, so that when he does eventually decline, say in his early 30s, he can simply return to his current level of his production. Maybe he will, maybe he won''t. It's the only way he can last long enough. With the late start, he's only ahead of Gehringer, Wagner, Biggio
Berkman, Helton and Thome, are ahead of just two players in the Top 25. And those two players are Cap Anson and Jim O'Rourke, whose careers we know to be relevant to no modern players.
28. Lance Berkman (Age-33; Career Best-114; 100 Run Seasons-5) - Leaving aside Anson and O'Rourke, the men in the Top 25 Berkman is closest to are Paul Molitor and Honus Wagner. He's 84 runs behind Molitor, who played another 8 seasons and scored another 729 runs - that's averaging 91 runs a season from ages 34 to 41. And he's 68 runs behind Wagner, who scored only 699 runs after age 33 (he was Honus Wagner, but it was very much a pitcher's era.) It's going to be hard for Berkman to keep pace with those guys, let alone make up the ground he's already lost...
29. Todd Helton (Age-35; Career Best-138; 100 Run Seasons-6) - Berkman has more time to chip away at Molitor and Wagner than Helton does. On the other hand, Helton actually has chipped away some of that ground - he trails Wagner by just 7 runs scored through age 35, Molitor by just 53. However, Wagner scored 288 runs in the three years after he turned 35, and 87 runs in the worst of those years; Helton scored just 204 in the three years before he turned 35, and he scored 86 runs in the best of those seasons. Don't like his chances too much...
30. Jim Thome (Age-38; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-8) - I think it's pretty obvious that he's not catching anybody from behind. He's still 99 runs ahead of O'Rourke at this stage, but O'Rourke would play regularly for four more years and score 341 runs. I would think Thome is unlikely to score another 200 runs, which leaves him just outside the current Top 25. Which is still a helluva career, you must admit.
The following eight players are behind... everybody. Even Anson and O'Rourke, playing 80 game seasons until they were 32 years old. Even Honus Wagner, unable to nail down a regular job until he was 24. Even Willie Mays, who lost almost two early season to military service. And so on.
31. Curtis Granderson (Age-28; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-2) - Because he's the youngest, Granderson has the most time available to overcome what, in his case, is a very late start. Granderson played his first season as a regular at age 25, which pretty well took him out of the running before the starter's pistol went off.
32. Matt Holliday (Age-29; Career Best-120; 100 Run Seasons-3)- Holliday started late (age 24) and didn't actually do much of anything until age 26. He's probably past his peak already...
33. Chase Utley (Age-30; Career Best-131; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Some mysteries in life are just that - mysteries. We know why Edgar Martinez got off to such a late start - he was blocked by the immortal Jim Presley (or, if you want to put it another way, the Seattle Mariners were being run by morons.) Chase Utley... I don't know (Magpie asks someone to enlighten him!) He was a first round pick, and his minor league numbers are okay. They don't blow you away, however, and the Phillies weren't certain what his position should be - he spent his first year at AAA playing third base. In the end, he didn't make his major league debut until he was 24, and was optioned back to the minors when he was 25. He didn't nail down a major league job until he was 26, and while he's been a great, great player ever since, that's way, way too late to get started if you want to pile up some impressive counting numbers.
34. Kevin Youkilis (Age-30; Career Best-100; 100 Run Seasons-1) - You'd think the famous Greek God of walks would be good at scoring runs. Turns out... not really. But the real issue is the extraordinarily late start - his first full season as a regular is his age 27 season.
35. Brian Roberts (Age-31; Career Best-110; 100 Run Seasons-4) - A nice player, but his first full season was his age 25 year. That's just too late to get started.
36. Chone Figgins (Age-31; Career Best-114; 100 Run Seasons-2) - Lather, rinse, repeat. A nice player (maybe not quite as nice as Roberts), but he took too long to get started. His first full season was his age 26 year.
37. Miguel Tejada (Age-35; Career Best-108; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Three years ago, Tejada looked like he was alive in all of this. He had 869 runs through his age 30 season, and would have still been ahead of Gehringer, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, and the National Association guys. Not very good, but not quite dead. But in the three years since, Tejada has aged five years, which changes everything. While also posting the lowest runs scored season totals of his career.
38. Carlos Delgado (Age-37; Career Best-117; 100 Run Seasons-5) - Another player who lost 2009 (almost the whole year, in his case) to injury. Carlos was pretty well out of the running already - he was behind the pace set by everyone ahead of him even before scoring just 15 runs in 2009.
Now here is the Big Honking Data Table. This gives you the career totals by age of the Top 25 and the Current 38. I have managed to highlight the player leading at each age. Just to mix things up, I'll use a different kind of seeding. The Top 25 are listed by their final career totals - the active players are ranked by where they stand compared to the rest of the list at their current age.
You can see why it's so important to be ahead of Cap Anson.
Finally, let's have a guess at what the top 25 will look like in the year 2025. You know, if man is still alive. I think the man at the top is still going to be there...
I also figure David Wright, Grady Sizemore, and Carlos Beltran (and maybe Ryan Zimmerman) are going to clear 1700 runs scored, but without catching up with Gehringer.
Longshot to watch? Dustin Pedroia.
At that time, the Top 25 or so in each category seemed like a reasonable target for an active player.
Four seasons are in the books since then, and four seasons is a sizeable chunk of any player's career. Some of the guys we were paying attention back in the day have (or seem to have) finished their work (Shawn Green, Frank Thomas), some have fallen by the wayside (Vernon Wells, Hank Blalock), others are calling us to sit up and take notice (David Wright, Grady Sizemore).
Time for an update.
Runs Scored, for some reason, has always been the performance category that gets no respect. Not in my house! The first thing you look for at the end of the day isn't which team had more hits than the other or hit more home runs or drove in more runs. Those things may suggest to you who probably won or lost the game, but what you need to know is which team scored more runs than the other. Everything follows from this, and everything in the game serves this...
I've been looking at six career performance categories: Runs, RBIs, HRs, Hits, Wins, Strikeouts. Runs Scored is the only one of the six that still features the exact same group of players. The Top 25 on the career runs scored list hasn't changed since 2006, although two players already on the list improved their position: Barry Bonds (6th to 3rd and Craig Biggio (24th to 13th.) This is a pretty tough group to crack.
As we head for 2010, Sliding Billy Hamilton still holds the 25th spot with 1690 runs scored. He's not going to hold it for long, however, as there's an active player just 7 runs behind him. So let's take this opportunity to salute the man who still holds the single season record for most runs scored in a single season.
Hamilton was a short (5-6) stocky man with sprinter's speed, who was by far the most aggressive and reckless baserunner of his time. He scored 192 (or was it 196?) runs in 1894 and 166 runs the following year. He averaged better than one run scored for every game he played in his career - there may very well be another player who has managed the same feat, but I don't who it might be. He was the best base stealer in the game, he led his league in BAVG twice, Walks drawn and OBPct five times. He's pretty obviously the greatest leadoff man in the game before Rickey Henderson, and he was certainly a comparable force at his peak. And like Rickey, Hamilton was famous for sliding head-first into bases (I rather think it was Rickey who brought that move back into the game.) Henderson aged much better than Hamilton, who had his last truly great year at age 32 as leg injuries began to grind him down. He retired at age 35. There is very little in the game's literature about him, nothing in the way of colourful anecdotes, nothing about the man who played so brilliantly. He spent his best years in Philadelphia, who were a perennial third place team through his prime. He did join the mighty Boston Beaneaters and played on two league champion teams for them - on that team, slightly past his prime, he was just one of a group of stars, along with Kid Nichols, Hugh Duffy, Jimmy Collins, Herman Long, and Chick Stahl.
And alas, that great Boston team has always been overshadowed by the Baltimore Orioles anyway. The Orioles cleverly placed a couple of their former players (McGraw and Robinson) in New York City where they worked as managers for the next 30 years. There they carefully nourished the legend of the old Orioles as the great team and master innovators of their time. Well, the Orioles were no such thing - they were the Broad Street Bullies of baseball, a dreadful, disgraceful bunch (with the exception of the man who stands right in front of Hamilton on this list, Willie Keeler.) They were thugs and I'm happy to boo and jeer them a century later...
Anyway, here's to Sliding Billy, and his last appearance on the leader board.
Best Number of
Runs Season 100 Run Seasons
1 Henderson 2295 146 13
2 Cobb 2246 147 11
3 Bonds 2227 129 12
4 Ruth 2175 177 12
5 Aaron 2174 127 15
6 Rose 2165 130 10
7 Mays 2062 130 12
8 Anson 1996 117 6
9 Musial 1949 135 11
10 Gehrig 1888 167 13
11 Speaker 1882 137 7
12 Ott 1859 138 9
13 Biggio 1844 146 8
14 F.Robinson 1829 134 8
15 Collins 1821 137 6
16 Yastrzemski 1816 125 2
17 T.Williams 1798 150 9
18 Molitor 1782 136 5
19 Gehringer 1774 144 12
20 Foxx 1751 151 11
21 Wagner 1736 114 6
22 O'Rourke 1729 119 5
23 Burkett 1720 160 9
24 Keeler 1719 146 8
25 Hamilton 1690 192 11
There are several players in the Top 25 whose careers have an unusual shape, in that they got started quite late. Because of their late starts, they regularly rank behind an active player who is the same age. One of them was Honus Wagner, who didn't become a regular until he was 24. Such a handicap would have been too much for your normal all-time great to overcome. However, we're speaking of Honus Wagner here - things like getting his career started later than the other guys and playing during one of the lowest scoring periods in the game's history weren't going to stop him. In addition, Wagner aged extraordinarily well.
Two other players in the Top 25 - Charlie Gehringer and Craig Biggio - didn't become regulars until age 23. That Biggio was able to post such impressive career totals despite the late start (and despite beginning his career as a catcher) is remarkable. He is quite possibly the greatest player of the 1990s not named Barry Bonds. As for Gehringer, Detroit's Mechanical Man was famous for how he slowly and relentlessly just kept getting better and better and better. It's very unusual to see a player show such a long history of sustained improvement - and he was a pretty decent player from the day he arrived. Gehringer had a sensational season at age 26 - he set new personal bests in pretty well every offensive category, and led the AL in Hits, Runs, 2b, and SB. When he was 31, he hit .356 with 50 2bs and led the league again in Runs and Hits. When he was 33, he hit .354 with 60 doubles, a feat no one has matched in the past 70 years. When he was 34, he hit a career high .371 to lead the AL.
Finally, two other men - Cap Anson and Orator Jim O'Rourke - made very slow progress on a year-to-year basis, but for a very different reason. Anson and O'Rourke both started in the National Association - the forerunner of the National League - and neither played a 100 game schedule until 1884, when both men were in their early 30s. Luckily, both players were active during the highest scoring era in the history of professional baseball, and both played well into their 40s. O'Rourke scored his 1729 runs in just 1999 games - he scored better than one run a game in nine different seasons. Anson couldn't quite match that pace, but he was 18 months younger, started a year earlier, and hung around for an extra four years at the end.
So - which active players have the best chance to carve a spot for themselves in the Top 25? I assembled what looked like 38 viable candidates and checked to see what kind of progress they were making...
These guys are seeded (for I have indeed listed them in some kind of order) by a Very Crude counting stat. I simply added up the number of players in the Top 25 that our guy is ahead of at his current age. Very Crude indeed... And having been forewarned, you know that it matters which players' pace you're matching or beating. A player now in his 20s or early 30s ought to be ahead of Anson and O'Rourke. Leading those two guys doesn't mean much of anything. Being ahead of Gehringer, Biggio, and even Wagner isn't particularly significant either. But if you're ahead of Mel Ott, you'r doing something pretty impressive...
You can scrutinize in detail each player's progress by examining the Big Honking Data Table that follows this list.
1. Alex Rodriguez (Age-33; Career Best-143; 100 Run Seasons-13) - Rodriguez is ahead of everyone. Ever. Alex Rodriguez has scored more runs through age 33 than any player in major league history. It took him a while to get there. Through age 21, A-Rod had scored 260 runs. That was exactly the same as Mickey Mantle, but there were six players who had scored more runs through that age - Mel Ott, John McGraw, Buddy Lewis, George Davis, Al Kaline, and Ted Williams. Rodriguez slipped behind Mantle as well through age 22, but since then he's been picking off the guys ahead of him and moving up the list. At age 23, he moved ahead of John McGraw, who missed most of the 1896 season. At age 24 Rodriguez scored 134 runs, and shot ahead of Lewis, Kaline, and Williams (who had gone off to war.) By now he trailed just Ott, Davis, and Mantle. He scored another 133 runs at age 25 to overtake Davis, and moved ahead of Mantle at age 27 (1959 was the only season from 1956-1961 when Mantle didn't lead the AL in runs scored.). Through age 29, Ott, Rodriguez, and Mantle were practically in a dead heat, but Rodriguez pulled ahead at age 30, and has been fighting off a challenge from Jimmie Foxx ever since. He needs to score 94 runs in 2010 to have the most runs ever scored through age 34 (Foxx is falling back and the current age 34 leader is Lou Gehrig). A-Rod is obviously very well positioned to make a run at Rickey Henderson's all-time record - he is more than 200 runs ahead of Rickey's pace. It's just a matter of how long he plans to hang around. At any rate, Rodriguez should go past Billy Hamilton sometime in early April and take his own place on the Top 25 all-time.
2. Albert Pujols (Age-29; Career Best-137; 100 Run Seasons-8) - Albert the Great doesn't quite make the Top 10 through age 29, but he's very, very close (he trails the 10th men, Joe Kelley, by just 5 runs.) He is ahead of almost everyone who finished in the Top 25 anyway - he trails only Ott, Foxx, Keeler, Cobb, Aaron, and Gehrig (and Alex Rodriguez.) He has never had a major injury, he has never scored less than 99 runs in a season, and he seems well on his way to joining what is now a Group of 7 with 2000 career runs.
3. Miguel Cabrera (Age-26; Career Best-112; 100 Run Seasons-3) - He seems to be adding weight and I'm not sure how great a player he'll be when he's 35. He hasn't scored 100 runs in a season since he was 23. But there is nothing like starting young, and Cabrera became a regular at age 20 and a star at age 21. I think he's going to need that fast start. He's still ahead of a bunch of guys in the Top 25 - Speaker, Collins, Hamilton, Bonds, Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio. A couple years ago, he was also ahead of Keeler, Musial, Gehrig, Burkett, and Pujols as well. And two years from now, he'll probably have fallen behind Speaker, Collins, Hamilton, Bonds, Williams, and Jeter. He looks good at this particular moment, but I don't think he'll be there in the end.
4. David Wright (Age-26; Career Best-115; 100 Run Seasons-2) - He came up to stay when he was 21, and he's averaged 102 runs a year in his five seasons as a regular. Couldn't get the ball out of the ball park last season - his HRs fell from 33 to 10, and his runs scored from 115 to 88. But the rest of his game was intact, and it doesn't seem to have had anything to do with the new home field. It was probably Just One of Those Things, a one-year blip. I think so, anyway. He's still in very good shape as it stands, ahead of Collins, Hamilton, Bonds, Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio.
5. Hanley Ramirez (Age-25; Career Best-125; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Boston traded him for Beckett and Lowell during Theo Epstein's very brief absence from the Boston front office, and Theo has apparently been trying to get him back ever since. You can see why. Pretty well everything is still possible for this guy. He scored 101 runs last year. That's the lowest figure of his career. He's got a long way to go, but the man is on his way. He's ahead of Bonds, Collins, Hamilton, Molitor, Mays, Yastrzemski, Anson, Rose, Ruth, O'Rourke, Gehringer, Wagner, Biggio
6. Ryan Zimmerman (Age-24; Career Best-110; 100 Run Seasons-1) - Not bad, not bad at all. He was playing regularly at age 21, and he broke through for 110 runs last season. He was a great player in 2009 at age 24, doing absolutely everything you could want a player to do, and off that he has a real chance to be the greatest third baseman since those halcyon days when Mike Schmidt and George Brett were gracing the fields of North America. Of course, that's what I used to think about Eric Chavez - and Chavez looked quite a bit better than Zimmerman at this stage of his career. We know how that's working out. But for the very young, most things are still possible. Zimmerman is the youngest player I've looked at here, and so far he's ahead of Anson, Yastrzemski, Mays, Collins, Hamilton, Molitor, O'Rourke, Rose, Ruth, Gehringer, Biggio, Wagner
7. Derek Jeter (Age-35; Career Best-134; 100 Run Seasons-12) - What a great, great player he's been. Seriously, wow. It's one thing to be outpacing a bunch of Hall of Famers when you're 25. It's quite something else to still be ahead of them when you're 35. He isn't Honus Wagner, but he might actually be the Next Best Thing. He's obviously one of the five greatest players at his position ever, and he's quite possibly the second greatest shortstop ever. (Especially now that we can be sure Rodriguez will end up with career games at 3b than short.) Jeter can certainly stand right beside the other guys lined up behind Wagner (Vaughan, Ripken, Banks, Larkin, Yount). As for career runs scored, I don't think Jeter can catch Rickey - he's 721 runs behind, which is a lot. On the other hand, he loves playing the game and has said he wants to keep playing just as long as he possibly can. One assumes he won't be a shortstop when he's 44, but he just might be around. At the moment, he's ahead of Speaker, Gehringer, Rose, Collins, Williams, Yastrzemski, Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
8. Grady Sizemore (Age-26; Career Best-134; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Sizemore's fifth season was an injury year. First there was a groin problem that took him out of the WBC, and all season there was an elbow problem that he initially attempted to play through. It would eventually land him on the DL for most of June and finally cause the Indians to shut him down with a month left in the season. After averaging 116 runs scored in the four previous seasons, he was down to 73 last year. But he had been quite durable before last season, and he's still ahead of Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio.
9. Jose Reyes (Age-26; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-3) - 2009 was almost a completely lost season for Reyes, but because he has been very good very young, he's still in fine shape both here and on the Hits leader boards. Like Sizemore, he gets a ton of plate appearances. And like Sizemore, he needs to put his injury year behind him. He's still ahead of Williams, Ruth, Mays, Molitor, Yastrzemski, Rose, Anson, Gehringer, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio.
10. Carl Crawford (Age-27; Career Best-104; 100 Run Seasons-2) - I'm a little disappointed. I expected Crawford would be doing much better by now. He should be in the centre of his prime, but he seems to have hit a plateau. He arrived when he was 20 and has been a regular since he was 21, which helps a lot - but despite being a .295 career hitter, he's never been able to get on base very often. Which is why he's never scored a lot of runs in a season. He could still take another step forward, and with his early start still has a chance to pile up a lot of runs (and, especially, hits.) He's ahead of Mays, Ruth, Yastrzemski, Gehringer, Rose, Molitor, Anson, O'Rourke, Wagner, Biggio
11. Johnny Damon (Age-35; Career Best-136; 100 Run Seasons-10) - Damon has played at least 141 games and scored at least 93 runs in each of the last twelve seasons. He'd probably get a lot more respect if he was driving in runs rather than scoring them, but that's always been the way, right? He's a free agent now, hoping for a four year deal and he'll probably have to settle for three. But even after that's done he will probably have enough game left to hang around for another year or two. It would be a big surprise to me if he doesn't make it to 1800 career runs scored just on the basis of his current momentum. If he has another good year or two left in him - you know, like the season he just had - he'd have a genuine chance to crack the Top 10 of all time, were it not for the fact that Rodriguez and Jeter will get there ahead of him. He's still ahead of Rose, Collins, Williams, Yastrzemski, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, and O'Rourke, which is extremely impressive for a guy his age.
12. Andruw Jones (Age-32; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Jones was so young when he started, and he accomplished so much in his 20s, that he'd climbed a very long way up the mountain that these career accomplishments represent. He went right off the cliff a couple of years ago and we're still watching him fall. Or, should we say, plummet, like a sheep labouring under the impression that he's a bird? The descent is still in progress, as represented by the fact that Jones is actually still ahead of Rose, Gehringer, Yastrzemski, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke. He will finish up ahead of none of those guys, I promise. He's certainly not going to score another 600 runs in his career. I'm not sure he's going to get another 600 at bats.
13. Jimmy Rollins (Age-30; Career Best-139; 100 Run Seasons-5) - He started young, which is a very good thing indeed - but as a player, I think just not good enough. He'll probably have a couple more 100 run seasons - after all, he's batting leadoff in a lineup with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard right behind him. But he's pretty ordinary right now, and in five years he'll be batting eighth. And replaced for a pinch-hitter. For now, he's ahead of Yastrzemski, Rose, Gehringer, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke and he'll probably slip past 1600 career runs before it's finally over.
14. Manny Ramirez (Age-37; Career Best-131; 100 Run Seasons-6) - He's still an outstanding hitter, and he's probably got another contract push left in him. He's a good enough hitter to play until he's 42 or 43 if he wants to. He's not going to score a lot of runs while he's doing that, but he should end up with enough to catch Mel Ott at least and he actually has an outside chance to make it to 2000. He's ahead of Biggio, Yastrzemski, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
15. Vladimir Guerrero (Age-33; Career Best-124; 100 Run Seasons-6) - He can still hit, but he appears to be falling apart right in front of us. In his six seasons in the AL, Vlad has scored 124, 95, 92, 89, 85, and 59 runs. So presumably we can expect something like 56, 52, 50, and 21 over the next four years? Obviously that won't be good enough. Needs to find a way to avoid the physical breakdowns (which seem to be happening all over his body) and stay in the lineup. He was a great player, and he's still ahead of Yastrzemski, Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
16. Carlos Beltran (Age-32; Career Best-127; 100 Run Seasons-7) - The fourth player on this list - so far! - who lost significant time to injury in 2009. Beltran is the second oldest of this Gang of Four (behind Guerrero) and he looks like the second best bet going forward (behind Sizemore, the youngest.) This is because he's a much better player than Jimmy Rollins and seems a much better bet to stay in the lineup than Vlad. Beltran can be erratic from year to the next - his runs scored by season in the last six years has been 121, 83, 127, 93, 116, 50. I think he's a very underrated player, possibly the first such creature in the history of New York baseball. I think he's easily good enough to play another seven or eight years, and should wind up with at least 1750 runs (and maybe 450 HRs and 2800 hits as well.) He's ahead of Yastrzemski, Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke.
17. Adam Dunn (Age-29; Career Best-107; 100 Run Seasons-3) - He started very young, but he's steadily losing ground against the field. He's still ahead of Gehringer, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke - however he's extremely unlikely to ever score 100 runs in a season again, unless he comes up with a 60 HR season.
18. Ken Griffey (Age-39; Career Best-125; 100 Run Seasons-6) - He started even younger (and better) than Dunn. Griffey being 10 years further along, we can see that Junior has indeed given all that early ground gained back to the field. This is probably his last season, a farewell lap, and he could end up passing Billy Hamilton and possibly cracking 1700 runs scored for his career. But even if he does, A-Rod will get there first. He's ahead of Molitor, Yastrzemski, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke for the moment, but it's not going to help. A great career anyway.
19. Edgar Renteria (Age-33; Career Best-100; 100 Run Seasons-2) - He's been playing regularly since he was 20, and he's always been able to stay in the lineup, but his offensive game is melting away from underneath him. At this rate he won't be playing regularly in three years. For now he's ahead of Biggio, Molitor, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke - but he's going be life and death to crack the Top 100 all-time (currently Larry Walker with 1355). No chance for the Top 25.
20. Adrian Beltre (Age-30; Career Best-104; 100 Run Seasons-1) - I like Beltre a lot. I think he's the Norm Cash of his time. He's a very good player whose career has been hard to get a handle on because of one monstrously flukey season. Beltre is a terrific glove and a decent enough hitter. Plus he's spent his entire career working in a couple of the better pitcher's parks in the game, so he really ought to enjoy playing in Fenway in 2010. However, he's not likely to actually end up high atop the various career leader boards. He's simply not that good. The early start, and the one big year, is why he's ahead of the pace set by Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke. He won't actually catch any of them.
21. Rafael Furcal (Age-31; Career Best-130; 100 Run Seasons-4) - He's basically where Jimmy Rollins will be in a year or two. A useful offensive player in his prime, at the top of his game - when you can hit him at the top of the lineup and have him score lots of runs for you. But he's not a good enough hitter to do that for you once he's past that point in his career. Which is where Furcal is now, and where Rollins is about to be. Furcal is still ahead of the pace set by Wagner, Biggio, Anson, O'Rourke and highly unlikely to actually catch any of them.
22. Mark Teixeira (Age-29; Career Best-112; 100 Run Seasons-4) - He's quite the hitter, but he didn't get started until he's 23 - and as a 23 year old rookie, he played 146 games, hit 26 HRs, and somehow scored only 66 runs. He's ahead of Wagner, Biggio, Anson, O'Rourke which isn't very impressive - in fact, he's practically in a dead heat with O'Rourke, who at Teixeira's age had never scored more 71 runs in a season (because he'd never played more than 86 games.)
The next three players - Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, and Bobby Abreu - are ahead of three men in the Top 25. Unfortunately, it's the three players most notorious for getting a late start: Honus Wagner, Cap Anson, and Jim O'Rourke.
23. Gary Sheffield (Age-40; Career Best-126; 100 Run Seasons-7) - A few years back, Sheffield was making a run at a spot on this list - through age 36, he was ahead of Yastrzemski, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, Anson, and O'Rourke. He had scored 345 runs in his last three seasons. But old players will break down, won't they? While Sheffield probably has enough left as a hitter to DH for someone for a year or two and drag his career total north of 1700 runs, it won't be enough to land him a spot on the Revised Leader Board.
24. Chipper Jones (Age-37; Career Best-123; 100 Run Seasons-8) - He's been a tremendous offensive player, but injuries cost him a full season at the very beginning of his career and he didn't get his first full season until age 23. Then, after being extremely durable through age 31, he missed about 30 games like clockwork every year since then. Now he's coming off a season so dreadul that he's talking about retiring. Well, his OPS+ of 118 actually is pretty terrible, at least for Chipper Jones. He's still ahead of Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke. I think he'll quit if he has another year like last year, but I don't expect that to happen in 2010.
25. Bobby Abreu (Age-35; Career Best-123; 100 Run Seasons-8) - Didn't play regularly until he was 24, and has slipped quite a bit from his age 25-30 peak. Still a very fine player, of course. He's ahead of Wagner, Anson, O'Rourke but won't catch any of them.
26. Dustin Pedroia (Age-25; Career Best-118; 100 Run Seasons-2) - Pedroia and Ryan Braun are very good young players who got off to slightly late starts. That's why they're both so poorly positioned on this list at the moment. Pedroia, however, has actually led the AL in runs scored in two of his three seasons and for that reason alone I'm inclined to take him somewhat seriously. He was 23 in his first year as a regular. As we know, among the men in the Top 25 almost everyone on the list was already playing regularly by age 22 except the three men Pedroia and Braun are ahead of (Gehringer, Wagner, and Biggio.) It's going to be very hard for Pedroia to keep up with any of those guys - on the other hand he's young enough and could very well prove good enough to overtake someone else.
27. Ryan Braun (Age-25; Career Best-113; 100 Run Seasons-1) - He had a late start, but he's quite a hitter right now. He needs to get a little bit better though, so that when he does eventually decline, say in his early 30s, he can simply return to his current level of his production. Maybe he will, maybe he won''t. It's the only way he can last long enough. With the late start, he's only ahead of Gehringer, Wagner, Biggio
Berkman, Helton and Thome, are ahead of just two players in the Top 25. And those two players are Cap Anson and Jim O'Rourke, whose careers we know to be relevant to no modern players.
28. Lance Berkman (Age-33; Career Best-114; 100 Run Seasons-5) - Leaving aside Anson and O'Rourke, the men in the Top 25 Berkman is closest to are Paul Molitor and Honus Wagner. He's 84 runs behind Molitor, who played another 8 seasons and scored another 729 runs - that's averaging 91 runs a season from ages 34 to 41. And he's 68 runs behind Wagner, who scored only 699 runs after age 33 (he was Honus Wagner, but it was very much a pitcher's era.) It's going to be hard for Berkman to keep pace with those guys, let alone make up the ground he's already lost...
29. Todd Helton (Age-35; Career Best-138; 100 Run Seasons-6) - Berkman has more time to chip away at Molitor and Wagner than Helton does. On the other hand, Helton actually has chipped away some of that ground - he trails Wagner by just 7 runs scored through age 35, Molitor by just 53. However, Wagner scored 288 runs in the three years after he turned 35, and 87 runs in the worst of those years; Helton scored just 204 in the three years before he turned 35, and he scored 86 runs in the best of those seasons. Don't like his chances too much...
30. Jim Thome (Age-38; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-8) - I think it's pretty obvious that he's not catching anybody from behind. He's still 99 runs ahead of O'Rourke at this stage, but O'Rourke would play regularly for four more years and score 341 runs. I would think Thome is unlikely to score another 200 runs, which leaves him just outside the current Top 25. Which is still a helluva career, you must admit.
The following eight players are behind... everybody. Even Anson and O'Rourke, playing 80 game seasons until they were 32 years old. Even Honus Wagner, unable to nail down a regular job until he was 24. Even Willie Mays, who lost almost two early season to military service. And so on.
31. Curtis Granderson (Age-28; Career Best-122; 100 Run Seasons-2) - Because he's the youngest, Granderson has the most time available to overcome what, in his case, is a very late start. Granderson played his first season as a regular at age 25, which pretty well took him out of the running before the starter's pistol went off.
32. Matt Holliday (Age-29; Career Best-120; 100 Run Seasons-3)- Holliday started late (age 24) and didn't actually do much of anything until age 26. He's probably past his peak already...
33. Chase Utley (Age-30; Career Best-131; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Some mysteries in life are just that - mysteries. We know why Edgar Martinez got off to such a late start - he was blocked by the immortal Jim Presley (or, if you want to put it another way, the Seattle Mariners were being run by morons.) Chase Utley... I don't know (Magpie asks someone to enlighten him!) He was a first round pick, and his minor league numbers are okay. They don't blow you away, however, and the Phillies weren't certain what his position should be - he spent his first year at AAA playing third base. In the end, he didn't make his major league debut until he was 24, and was optioned back to the minors when he was 25. He didn't nail down a major league job until he was 26, and while he's been a great, great player ever since, that's way, way too late to get started if you want to pile up some impressive counting numbers.
34. Kevin Youkilis (Age-30; Career Best-100; 100 Run Seasons-1) - You'd think the famous Greek God of walks would be good at scoring runs. Turns out... not really. But the real issue is the extraordinarily late start - his first full season as a regular is his age 27 season.
35. Brian Roberts (Age-31; Career Best-110; 100 Run Seasons-4) - A nice player, but his first full season was his age 25 year. That's just too late to get started.
36. Chone Figgins (Age-31; Career Best-114; 100 Run Seasons-2) - Lather, rinse, repeat. A nice player (maybe not quite as nice as Roberts), but he took too long to get started. His first full season was his age 26 year.
37. Miguel Tejada (Age-35; Career Best-108; 100 Run Seasons-4) - Three years ago, Tejada looked like he was alive in all of this. He had 869 runs through his age 30 season, and would have still been ahead of Gehringer, Molitor, Biggio, Wagner, and the National Association guys. Not very good, but not quite dead. But in the three years since, Tejada has aged five years, which changes everything. While also posting the lowest runs scored season totals of his career.
38. Carlos Delgado (Age-37; Career Best-117; 100 Run Seasons-5) - Another player who lost 2009 (almost the whole year, in his case) to injury. Carlos was pretty well out of the running already - he was behind the pace set by everyone ahead of him even before scoring just 15 runs in 2009.
Now here is the Big Honking Data Table. This gives you the career totals by age of the Top 25 and the Current 38. I have managed to highlight the player leading at each age. Just to mix things up, I'll use a different kind of seeding. The Top 25 are listed by their final career totals - the active players are ranked by where they stand compared to the rest of the list at their current age.
TOP 25 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 RunsAlas, I can only make the table so wide and a number of players insisted on crossing home plate even after they turned 40 - some of them rather often, in fact. So here are how many runs those players scored after age 41: Cap Anson (378), Pete Rose (250), Rickey Henderson (192), Barry Bonds (149), Jim O'Rourke (138), Honus Wagner (128), Carl Yastrzemski (127), Paul Molitor (75), Craig Biggio (68), Henry Aaron (67), Willie Mays (59), Ted Williams (56), Ty Cobb (54), Stan Musial (34), Eddie Collins (4).
Henderson 0 0 49 160 249 368 473 586 732 862 940 1058 1171 1290 1395 1472 1586 1652 1719 1829 1913 2014 2103 2295
Cobb 19 64 161 249 365 471 618 738 808 877 1021 1134 1241 1324 1416 1502 1626 1725 1828 1943 2040 2088 2192 2246
Bonds 0 0 0 72 171 268 364 468 563 672 801 890 999 1121 1244 1364 1455 1584 1713 1830 1941 2070 2078 2227
Ruth 0 1 17 35 49 99 202 360 537 631 783 926 987 1126 1284 1447 1568 1718 1867 1987 2084 2162 2175 2175
Aaron 0 0 58 163 269 387 496 612 714 829 956 1077 1180 1289 1406 1519 1603 1703 1806 1901 1976 2060 2107 2174
Rose 0 0 0 0 101 165 282 379 465 559 679 799 885 992 1107 1217 1329 1459 1554 1657 1747 1842 1915 2165
Mays 0 0 59 76 76 195 318 419 531 652 777 884 1013 1143 1258 1379 1497 1596 1679 1763 1827 1921 2003 2062
Anson 0 29 89 142 193 277 340 392 447 487 541 608 677 747 855 955 1072 1179 1280 1380 1475 1556 1618 1996
Musial 0 0 8 95 203 315 439 552 687 815 920 1044 1149 1276 1396 1493 1580 1662 1726 1763 1812 1858 1915 1949
Gehrig 0 0 6 8 81 216 365 504 631 774 937 1075 1213 1341 1466 1633 1771 1886 1888 1888
Speaker 0 0 12 85 177 265 401 495 596 704 806 896 969 1052 1189 1296 1381 1514 1608 1687 1783 1854 1882 1882
Ott 30 99 237 359 463 582 680 799 912 1032 1131 1247 1332 1421 1510 1628 1693 1784 1857 1859 1859
Biggio 0 0 0 0 14 78 131 210 306 404 492 615 728 874 997 1120 1187 1305 1401 1503 1603 1697 1776 1844
F.Robinson 0 0 122 219 309 415 501 618 752 831 934 1043 1165 1248 1317 1428 1516 1598 1639 1724 1805 1824 1829 1829
Collins 0 2 2 41 145 226 318 455 580 702 820 907 998 1049 1136 1253 1332 1424 1513 1621 1701 1767 1817 1821
Yastrzemski 0 0 0 71 170 261 338 416 497 609 699 795 920 995 1065 1147 1240 1331 1402 1501 1571 1640 1689 1816
T.Williams 0 0 131 265 400 541 541 541 541 683 808 932 1082 1164 1273 1275 1292 1385 1462 1533 1629 1710 1742 1798
Molitor 0 0 0 73 161 242 287 423 518 521 614 676 790 905 989 1053 1186 1275 1396 1482 1545 1644 1707 1782
Gehringer 0 0 0 2 5 67 177 285 416 560 627 739 842 976 1099 1243 1376 1509 1595 1703 1768 1774 1774
Foxx 10 33 118 241 368 461 612 737 857 975 1105 1216 1355 1485 1591 1678 1721 1721 1721 1751 1751
Wagner 0 0 0 0 0 37 117 215 322 423 528 625 722 836 939 1037 1137 1229 1319 1406 1497 1548 1608 1736
O'Rourke 0 0 0 25 104 186 283 344 412 456 525 596 667 729 831 950 1069 1175 1248 1298 1387 1499 1591 1729
Burkett 0 0 0 67 96 215 360 498 651 811 940 1054 1170 1258 1400 1497 1570 1642 1720 1720
Keeler 0 0 7 26 191 353 506 651 777 917 1023 1146 1232 1327 1405 1486 1582 1632 1670 1714 1719 1719
Hamilton 0 0 0 0 21 165 298 439 571 681 873 1039 1191 1343 1453 1516 1619 1690 1690
CONTENDERS 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Runs
Rodriguez 4 19 160 260 383 493 627 760 885 1009 1121 1245 1358 1501 1605 1683 1683
Pujols 0 0 0 112 230 367 500 629 748 847 947 1071 1071
Cabrera 0 0 39 140 246 358 449 534 630 630
Jeter 0 0 0 5 109 225 352 486 605 715 839 926 1037 1159 1277 1379 1467 1574 1574
Wright 0 0 0 41 144 240 353 468 552 552
Damon 0 0 0 32 93 163 267 368 504 612 730 833 956 1073 1188 1281 1376 1483 1483
Crawford 0 0 23 103 207 308 397 490 559 655 655
Griffey 0 61 152 228 311 424 518 570 695 820 940 1063 1163 1220 1237 1271 1320 1405 1467 1545 1612 1656 1656
A.Jones 0 11 71 160 257 379 483 574 675 760 855 962 1045 1066 1109 1109
M.Ramirez 0 0 0 5 56 141 235 334 442 573 665 758 842 959 1067 1179 1258 1342 1444 1506 1506
Guerrero 0 0 2 46 154 256 357 464 570 641 765 860 952 1041 1126 1185 1185
Rollins 0 0 0 5 102 184 269 388 503 630 769 845 945 945
H.Ramirez 0 0 0 0 119 244 369 470 470
Sheffield 0 12 46 113 138 225 292 353 399 517 603 676 779 884 982 1064 1190 1307 1411 1433 1540 1592 1636 1636
Sizemore 0 0 0 15 126 260 378 479 552 552
Renteria 0 0 68 158 237 329 423 477 554 650 734 834 934 1021 1090 1140 1140
Beltran 0 0 0 12 124 173 279 393 495 616 699 826 919 1035 1085 1085
Reyes 0 0 47 80 179 301 420 533 551 551
C.Jones 0 0 0 2 2 89 203 303 426 542 660 773 863 966 1035 1101 1188 1296 1378 1458 1458
Zimmerman 0 0 6 90 189 240 350 350
Thome 0 0 7 15 43 101 193 315 419 508 609 715 816 917 1028 1125 1151 1259 1338 1431 1486 1486
Abreu 0 0 0 0 1 23 91 209 312 430 532 631 749 853 951 1074 1174 1270 1270
Dunn 0 0 0 54 138 208 313 420 519 620 699 780 780
Helton 0 0 0 0 0 13 91 205 343 475 582 717 832 924 1018 1104 1143 1222 1222
Beltre 0 18 102 173 232 302 352 456 525 613 700 774 828 828
Furcal 0 0 0 0 87 126 221 351 454 554 667 754 788 880 880
Berkman 0 0 0 0 0 10 86 196 302 412 516 592 687 782 896 969 969
Teixeira 0 0 0 0 0 66 167 279 378 464 566 669 669
Pedrioa 0 0 0 0 5 91 209 324 324
Braun 0 0 0 0 0 91 183 296 296
Delgado 0 0 0 0 17 24 92 171 265 378 493 595 698 815 889 970 1059 1130 1226 1241 1241
Tejada 0 0 0 0 0 10 63 156 261 368 476 574 681 770 869 941 1033 1116 1116
Roberts 0 0 0 0 0 42 60 125 232 324 409 512 619 729 729
Utley 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 49 142 273 377 490 602 602
Figgins 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 40 123 236 329 410 482 596 596
Holliday 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 133 252 372 479 573 573
Granderson 0 0 0 0 0 2 20 110 232 344 435 435
Youkilis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 49 149 234 325 424 424
You can see why it's so important to be ahead of Cap Anson.
Finally, let's have a guess at what the top 25 will look like in the year 2025. You know, if man is still alive. I think the man at the top is still going to be there...
1. Henderson 2295
2. Rodriguez 2279
3. Cobb 2246
4. Jeter 2238
5. Bonds 2227
6. Ruth 2175
7. Aaron 2174
8. Rose 2165
9. Mays 2062
10. Pujols 2016
11. Anson 1996
12. Musial 1949
13. Gehrig 1888
14. Speaker 1882
15. M.Ramirez 1875
16. Ott 1859
17. Biggio 1844
18. F.Robinson 1829
19. E.Collins 1821
20. Yastrzemski 1816
21. Damon 1811
22. T.Williams 1798
23. H.Ramirez 1787
24. Molitor 1782
25. Gehringer 1774
I also figure David Wright, Grady Sizemore, and Carlos Beltran (and maybe Ryan Zimmerman) are going to clear 1700 runs scored, but without catching up with Gehringer.
Longshot to watch? Dustin Pedroia.
