Russell Martin sure does have trouble with balls in the dirt. I did not know this was a thing.

If only there had been some way, before the start of the season, to know that this roster construction on the pitching side was flawed.

Pitching remains scary.

Castro has to be done as closer now.

Before the game Gibbons was saying that Castro needed some time off. But there he was in the ninth of a tied game. Feeling a bit of pressure there Gibby?

In the eighth and ninth Gibbons looked like he ate a bad clam chowder before the game. His bullpen moves have not worked over the last few days.

How did Sanchez look tonight? His line looks respectable enough for a start in Fenway and he clearly gave the team a chance to win the game.

The off-season passivity after the Martin/Travis/Donaldson/Saunders acquisitions (an impressive haul to be sure), specifically with respect to the team's need for one more SP and at least one strong reliever, is apparently coming back to bite the Jays, and we're only in April.

Sanchez was up and down. He really struggled in the first inning and thereafter was running hot and cold. He nearly took Mookie Betts head off a couple of times. He also cost himself a run with a throwing error. It was like his last start, flashes of excellence and periods of wildness.

I might be underselling him a bit, he did go 5.2 innings. He threw 30 pitches in the first, that leaves 76 pitches in 4.2, an average of 17 per inning for innings 2 through 6. He finished well.

The irony is that AA (and/or ownership) was so risk-averse about spending dollars or assets on the bullpen that he built the riskiest bullpen, on paper, I have ever seen in my decades of following baseball for any team that wasn't fully committed to a salary dump or rebuild.

Mike D, maybe that was the strategy: construct a bullpen so poor that the team's record, by July, will justify a full-scale salary dump.

Send Osuna and Castro to New Hampshire to start, Pompey to Buffalo for some refinement - call-up guys like Schultz/West/Guilmet for the pen and go with a Pillar/Carrera platoon - Don't sabotage the future along with the present in this your final season.

Cito, is that you taking your uniform to the drycleaners?

It may be time to send Castro back down to AA/A+.

Bring up a RP from AAA or alternatively they could bring one of Copeland/Wolf as the 5th starter and shift Sanchez to the closer role.

Now Reyes to DL and Diaz called up. Reyes should've hit the DL as soon as he couldn't swing the bat properly from the left side. He's been about as useful as Goins would've been since the injury.

Headline on MLB.com: Mookie, Red Sox stun Blue Jays with rally, walk-off 'Stunned?'

Just imagine where the team would be without Devon "Best Acquisition of AA's Career" Travis. (Of course, that title is premature, but not, surprisingly, completely absurd.)

Cito, is that you taking your uniform to the drycleaners?

If this team brings Cito back again I would laugh so hard. It would not look good at all.  Eventually you just have to close the door on the past.

Thing is Cito might be the right guy.  Very steady hand who knows the organization. Has dealt with pen issues many times in the past successfully.  Knows how to work with stars.  Has a history of taking a slumping team and pushing them to near or into playoffs.  If the Jays dumb Gibbons then Cito would be my first choice of mid-seaon available guys. 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia released by Marlins - might be a good pickup for the Jays to be the backup catcher assuming they can dump Navarro's salary.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia caught Tim Wakefield 28 times over 141 innings.  The 5.21 ERA wasn't good but at least he has experience.  In Miami he hasn't hit at all but still has a 93 OPS+ lifetime.  With Miami picking up the tab I'd say why not?

I don't think Rogers can afford to throw another retirement ceremony for Cito, so I think we're safe there.

Gibbons isn't the problem (those he can over-manage Tony Larussa style at times - nobody's perfect). The problem is that there's not a single guy in the bullpen who can currently be called "solid" or "reliable." That's on AA, in my opinion. I'm still optimistic that Osuna, Castro, Cecil and Loup can figure it out and become solid, but nobody is performing at the moment (save for Osuna). It does seem like we should have acquired some more depth to start, and now it's probably too late.

How's Steve Delabar doing?

Mike had suggested that this offense might score 800 runs. And 1/8 of the season in, that is the pace they are on, even despite the number of hitters who are not contributing.

Unfortunately, they are also on pace to allow 800 runs.

That's what a long summer looks like. Hoping to win 6-5. Go Rockies.

There were two parts to the decision-making in relation to the bullpen: not acquiring additional pitching help and then moving Sanchez to the rotation.   The first part resulted from Anthopoulos' decision to prioritize spending on position players over pitchers on a limited budget.  I agreed with that decision in broad strokes.  The second part resulted from Gibbons' decision that Sanchez could benefit the club more in the rotation.  I disagreed with that decision.

It's funny that a trade that almost everyone approved of, including me,  (Saunders for Happ) has turned out so poorly for the club so far.  Had Happ been around, Sanchez would almost surely be in the bullpen. And Happ has been much more effective than Sanchez in the rotation. 

This is still a very good club, in my view. 

How's Steve Delabar doing?

For what it's worth, just one walk in 6 innings. But his walk rate has been climbing since his 3.5/9 in his first season (and even that year, it started climbing after coming over from Seattle). So if you're not tired of walks (Jays are 2nd worst in the AL), he's your man.

What are everyone's thoughts about switching Sanchez and Estrada? The pen needs help and maybe Sanchez can recapture what he did there last year. Estrada as a starter is probably better than Sanchez as a starter right now. We can also strengthen the pen by looking to acquire someone from outside the organization (Soriano? trade for Papelbon?) Castro could be sent down because to me he doesn't look ready. Then we would have:

Hutchison/Buerhle/Dickey/Norris/Estrada with a pen core of Loup/Cecil/Sanchez/Osuna/some other guy

What are everyone's thoughts about switching Sanchez and Estrada?

Many argued for Sanchez in the pen even in advance of his struggles as a starter. He just simply seemed a requirement in an otherwise thin, and not restocked, bullpen. And it's not like he couldn't become a starter next year.

And the bar for acceptable starter is fairly low. If Estrada or Hendriks could pull off a 5.00 ERA, he'd qualify. Hell, we might even take to calling him ace.

Here's where the old saw about "winning/losing 1 run games often comes down to luck" - if that 1 run keeps getting posted in the 9th, luck has nothing to do with it.

As the roster is currently constructed, the offseason move that makes absolutely no sense is the Lind/Estrada deal. At the time, moving a LH DH only for a 5th starter or high leverage reliever made some sense by creating pitching depth and giving the team roster flexibility by having another position player who is more versatile than Lind. Instead, Estrada is being used in the same role as one of the AAAA arms could be used and the team replaced Lind with a lesser version of Lind - Smoak. Right now just releasing Lind and spending the $4m that is currently being used on Estrada would have made more sense. Alternatively, the Jays could have kept Lind and tried to bash every team to death with this line-up.

So how are some of those guys people wanted doing?

• Adam Lind a 167 OPS+, about the only good thing in Milwaukee right now
• Chase Utley* a 14 OPS+, glad AA went the cheap route with Travis
• Cole Hamels* a 116 ERA+, still would be nice to have but would cost a ton
• Jonathan Papelbon a 1.08 ERA, 1 BB 9 K in 8 1/3 IP with 5 saves - yeah, he wants people to notice.
• Dustin McGowan 5.23 ERA in 10 1/3 IP 11 BB vs 7 SO I suspect the end is near.
• Anthony Gose a 134 OPS+ with a 360 OBP. but 3 BB vs 19 K's suggests this won't last

I'm sure there are many others people can think of who could've easily been Jays right now.

One more...
Melky Cabrera a 75 OPS+ so far, for $14 mil this year and $15 next.  Pompey & Pillar are both in the 70's for OPS+ and provide far, far superior defense for about $13 1/2 mil less.

I'll join with those suggesting it may be time to give Delabar another run in Toronto.  Even if it is just to let Castro have a couple weeks at AAA to regain some confidence, which has to be a bit battered at this point.

Rafael Soriano is still available as well.  Even though I don't buy that having a proven closer really makes a huge difference from a "results" perspective, if it makes the current BP arms more comfortable in the role, I'm all for it.  Jays should be able to offer Soriano some cash (provided they actually have some stashed) and the closer's job.  I assume Boras has called AA investigating, and I hope that management is at least thinking about it.

smoak is hitting great and doing something which lind never could - play a competent 1b.

and he's doing it for peanuts.

It seems a bit early to call any winners in the Saunders-Happ trade. Saunders injury was a freak accident (not related to his previous injuries) and he needs a grace period to get his timing back. Happ just needs some time to become, well, Happ.

It also seems bit early to panic, both about the rotation and the pen -- it seems sensible to put Cecil back in as the first closer option and back off Castro and to just wait for the starters to do better. Not news, but Stroman was a big hit for this team and there was (and I think is) no way of filling the hole in the team he left.

Sit back and wait for the hot months. Let's just hope the bad months are better than the bad months of last year. With all the rookies, despite their struggles, this team has been less frustrating to watch than the 13/14 Jays.

I haven't seen anyone call a winner of the Saunders-Happ deal.  I certainly didn't.

It seems a bit early to call any winners in the Saunders-Happ trade

Exactly. They are tied in hits.

All of this is fallout from the loss of Stroman, I think. If he had still been healthy, the Jays could have put Sanchez in the bullpen.

I think that Rogers cut back on baseball spending because of the weak Canadian dollar and because Rogers' profits are down for this quarter.

I also think that this team doesn't have good enough pitching, and isn't going to come close to contending. AA and Gibbons will be fired if Beeston's replacement is hired soon enough in the offseason - though that search will probably last well into 2016, putting the Jays in limbo going into spring training.

Perhaps I am feeling a little pessimistic at present.

(Watch the Jays go 10-2 in their next 12 games and make me look stupid. I'm willing to look stupid if that will help the cause.)

let's not push the panic button quite yet.

we're right there with everyone else in our division, and i'd say we've underperformed so far, and maybe significantly.

Over (my?) Expectations (2):

2B Travis
1B Smoak/Valencia

Around (my?) Expectations (5):

3B Donaldson
C Martin
CF Pompey/Pillar
SP Sanchez
Bullpen

Below (my?) Expectations (8):

RF Bautista
DH Encarnacion
SS Reyes
LF Saunders
SP Hutchison
SP Buehrle
SP Dickey
SP Norris

Facing Clay Buchholz, the Jays are running out an outfield of Saunders in right, Pillar in centerfield and Valencia in left.  Hot-hand theory perhaps?  Personally, I'd have Pompey in center and Pillar in left and just them sit there at least until Bautista's shoulder is OK. 

they're saying pompey is a bit banged up from that catch last night.

It's unfortunate. 

Russell Martin has 4  hits, all home runs,  in 14 at-bats against Buchholz. 

Just saw this and thought it might be of interest to some others, mlb.com has a thing going right now to vote for the top 4 players in each franchise's history, winners will be revealed at the All-Star Game. Candidates for the Jays are Alomar, Carter, Delgado, Bautista, Bell, Fernandez, Halladay, and Stieb.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2015/franchise_four.jsp

So how are some of those guys people wanted doing?

The only guy I wanted is Andrew Miller. 8 saves, 0 runs allowed. Would have cost 40 millions over 4 years.
Instead they spend 6 on Navarro.

I wasn't a fan of the Lind trade either. Not if  Estrada isn't in the rotation. 

What about Sanchez? Well, he needs to stay in the rotation long enough to progress over last year or go pitch in Buffalo.
He can't spend the whole year in the pen without getting trapped there.

OK then, it is even a little early to say the trade has worked out poorly.

Despite his struggles so far, Sanchez belongs in the rotation and should develop there... without the Happy trade that never happens.

With my home team (Calgary Flames) continuing to exceed expectations I am in a charitable mood this spring and choose to find the positives in the Blue Jays current predicament.

Approaching the end of baseball's first month the team has basically seen a total of 3 things go right so far and they are named Travis, Donaldson (as advertised) and Osuna. Conversely, they have been hamstrung by injury (Stroman, Bautista, Reyes, Saunders, Cecil) as well as poor performance from both positional players (Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, Pompey, Pillar) and pitchers (pretty much everyone not named Osuna, Dickey and Estrada).

Despite this misfortune, the team sits 3 games back of the division lead (2 behind the wild card) and have scored the most runs in MLB entering action today. I fully expect positive regression from Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, Hutchison and the bullpen in general while obviously young Mr. Travis will not keep up this pace. I suppose I am likely more optimistic than most on both Norris and Sanchez while believing that Pompey will also be fine in short order and that the team will sort out the bullpen. Now to sit back, watch the team get healthy and put up another 800+ runs or so on the board.

He can't spend the whole year in the pen without getting trapped there.

He's only 22. Why would he be trapped there? It's not unusual for young pitchers to spend a year or two in the pen at the start of their career.

I'm not convinced that Sanchez to the bullpen is the right move or the team's next logical step. It may well be that he's not able to start (yet), but if that's the case it's not because he's unable to maintain velocity as a starter or is unable to develop secondary pitches. His problem has been walks, and those generally play worse at the end of the bullpen. In any event, the team has a longer term commitment than this year to his talent, and their plan is to give Sanchez an opportunity to succeed as a starter. If he can't start here, I suspect there's as good a chance he'll be send down to start as be sent to the pen. But I still hope he can start here. It's going to take patience though.

I do think you might have undersold Sanchez's start a bit Gerry. The first inning was a struggle no doubt and while he did lose his control from time to time, for the most part he was aggressive in the zone from the second inning on and there was little in the way of hard contact. I thought he used his curveball with great success and induced a fair number of whiffs from both the curve and his two-seamer.

The error off chopper was unfortunate and Sandoval never should have had the opportunity to hit the ball out of the park (terrible call on the second pitch of the at-bat by the ump). All in all I thought it was an encouraging start, even more-so given his struggles in the first and his ability to adjust.

And if my Pollyanna optimism isn't enough for some folks, there is always this little diddy by Jeff Sullivan about our Mr. Travis.

Is it just me, or was Monday's strike zone almost a mockery of the game? It just seemed SO tilted in favor of the Red Sox - Kelly kept getting the 3-4 inches outside call, and Sanchez didn't get 4 or 5 calls that were easily strikes according to PitchTrax. And it's not like Kelly had great control or anything. I ended up screaming at the TV a bunch of times..

man that's a tough luck inning for hutch.

but great work by the bottom of the order to give the meat of the order a chance to tie it up right after. it's about time the stars come through for us.

oh my god they came through.

2nd chance for huch now.

Interesting splits for Sanchez so far this season:
vs RHB .135/.237/.189/.462
vs LHB .389/.488/.806/1.294

The Blue Jays 3 through 6 hitters, as of right now, have the following batting averages: .137, .182, .193, .091

Good article on Travis. A few days ago, I called him "Joe Morgan lite". Maybe I should have omitted the "lite". Tongue planted firmly in cheek - I know it's early.

Only Bautista's third single of the year. A good sign.

A few weeks ago, some people were predicting that Travis would amass precisely 1.5-2 WAR this year.

He was 1.2 fWAR heading into tonight's game (and so far tonight he's 1/2 with a walk). It's April 28th.

Baseball has a way of making predictions look silly. Keith Law may never live down calling Travis a non-prospect (it reminds me a bit of when the Rays hit their stride in 2008, and Mike Wilner simply could not perceive that the once-sorry Devil Rays had actually become a good team).

On the other hand, Bob Elliott can feel good about his article on Travis from November 2014:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/11/13/new-blue-jays-infielder-travis-oozing-with-talent

Mike Green and others also deserve credit for seeing Travis's potential at the time of the trade.

I guess games at Fenway have to start at 6 if they're going to run 4 hours.

that was a truly awful start from hutch. maybe 2 swinging strikes total.

bullpen better hold this. won't be easy.

yeah, estrada really should be starting for us, gopheritis or not. three good pitches with good command.

Sanchez this series: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K
Hutchison: 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 0 K

Nice job by Martin framing Loup's low-and-away FB to Pedroia for called strike three.

Wait. He seriously had Loup come in, to pitch on the third straight day, with a four-run lead and the bases empty, when 4 of the 5 hitters due up were righties? Of all the moves he could have made, that is certainly one of them. 

Why was Estrada removed from the game after a relatively low pitch count?  Oh yes, one needs to define roles in the bullpen so Loup comes in to be the set-up man.  At this point, no lead seems safe.  What would be the optimal bullpen configuration for this team right now? 

There's no need to try to manufacture a 1 run victory from this one, gentlemen. 

not gonna complain this time. estrada was at 50 pitches and after last night i understand wanting to go with the two guys who were supposed to be the go to guys coming into the season - loup and cecil.

hope it works.

That game was some kind of ugly.

Any win these days is Beauuuutiful!

now we turn our lonely eyes to you, mr.dickey.

"Keith Law may never live down calling Travis a non-prospect"

That couldn't be the same Keith Law who repeatedly called on the Jays to trade Jose Bautista in 2010 because he was having an outlier season, could it?

The Jays rotation has been trash, but Boston's sure trying hard to grab that particular crown of awfulness. Their numbers are uuuuuugly.

Boston's starter ERA's:

Kelly 4.96
Masterson 5.16
Buchholz 5.76
Porcello 6.48
Miley Cyrus 8.62

The total ERA for the 5 is about 31 - tough to win when your starters are doing that. The Jays are a bit better, clocking in at about 26 total.

KC has arguably the best pitching in the AL at this point. Their starting ERA is 1.91, 4.09, 4.15, 5.95 and 5.50.

Their pen however has allowed only 5 runs this year. The Blue Jays pen? 32

everything is a bit wonky with all the intradivisional games to start.

to wit, AL Ranks:

Runs Scored: 1.TOR, 2.BOS, 3.NYY, 5.BAL, 9.TB
Runs Against: 5.NYY, 7.TB, 13.BAL, 14.TOR, 15.BOS

is our division awesome offensively or have awful pitching? or both?

It'll be interesting to see where the numbers settle as things stablize around June.
Boston has already used 16 pitchers - in 1985 the Jays used a total of 15.  Jays this year are up to 14 already.

Fun fact about Anthony Gose:

Full season so far: .314/.352/.471/.822
Excluding first 2 games: .250/.302/.350/.652

I generally don't like using splits for such small samples, but I think the second line here is far more indicative of his ability (almost exactly the same as his career stats).

Miley Cyrus 8.62

I hope this was simply an autocomplete fail.

but I think the second line here is far more indicative of his ability

He has already been dropped to the 9-hole in the batting order. He and Rajai Davis, who are platooning, were both in the 1-hole. Davis remains.

And for Davis:

2015 to-date (14 games): .341 / .449 / .488 / .937 (.382 BAbip)
Excluding last 2 games: .273 / .385 / .394 / .779 (.308 BAbip)
Career (969 games): .271 / .319 / .382 / .701 (.319 BAbip)

And Gose was back in the 1-hole last night! So ignore my last remark.

Gibbons' decision to leave Hutchison in through 3 batters into the fifth inning got me thinking.

Let's say that you've decided to continue with Sanchez in the rotation because you believe that he has a decent chance to be a good starter by August.  How ought you to handle the pitching staff then?  Here's what I think.  You have four starters who on any given day can give you 7 good innings or more and one who can give you 6 (Sanchez).  There is no reason to believe that any of them will do this most outings, and what you really want to do is hold the other team to 4-5 runs a night.  With this club and this rotation, I think that it is particularly important for Gibbons (with this club) to give up on the idea of giving the starting pitcher an opportunity to win and the magical 5 innings that are required to qualify for the win.  If the starter has it on a particular day, let him go 7 innings.  If he doesn't (as Hutchison palpably did not yesterday), don't worry about the 5 innings.  In the bottom of the 3rd with a 5-4 lead, Hutchison was hit hard and gave up a walk but got out of it without surrendering a run.  In the bottom of the 4th with an 8-4 lead, he was hit hard but only gave up 1 run with the benefit of a CS.  He enters the 5th inning having 3 walks and no strikeouts and a 9-5 lead.  Ideally, you take him out before the inning.  He gives up a single on the 3rd pitch and then an 8 pitch walk.  You have to have him out of the game by then.  The same goes for the other starters in similar situations.

What that means is that you do need a bullpen with 2-3 pitchers ready to throw 3 innings if necessary.  You've got Francis, Castro, Estrada, Hendriks and Osuna to choose from.  If you have decided that Osuna is a high leverage reliever (I wouldn't put him in that role),  It's not the greatest set-up, but I think that it could work.  It isn't a tandem starter plan.  The starter can go 7 innings or more (if he has it that day and isn't worn out).  It's just essential that you give up on the pitcher win as a motivator to performance.

Edit.  If you've decided that Osuna is a high-leverage reliever ( I wouldn't but it doesn't change much), you could go with Hendriks, Estrada and Francis in the "starter back-up" roles. 

Isn't the Jays BP loaded with "long men" for this very reason?  I know Gibbons seems to like the thought of his starters getting the win (or, rather, he knows how much the starting pitcher wants to 'get the win'), but with the number of "multi-inning" guys in the pen right now (even if Hendriks may not be in that role for long, if he still is), I think Gibbons genuinely thought that he could get a bit more out of Hutch, especially win a 4 run lead.  May or may not have been the right call.

I don't envy trying to manage professional baseball players.  With the amount of superstitions, egos, and the fact that most of them are making more money than you, balancing the psyches of all of them is probably at least as important as writing out the lineup card.

With this club and this rotation, I think that it is particularly important for Gibbons (with this club) to give up on the idea of giving the starting pitcher an opportunity to win and the magical 5 innings that are required to qualify for the win.

I see your logic, but I'm worried that your approach will overwork the Jays' bullpen. I don't think that many relievers can handle a 100+ inning workload. Perhaps it might be best to keep the starters out there until they get tired, provided they're not obviously being bombed, and then hope that the Jays can win 9-7 or something like that.

On an unrelated topic: before reaching a conclusion on Devon Travis, I want to wait to see what happens when the honeymoon period is over. Opposing pitchers haven't figured out what he can't hit, and he hasn't had to make adjustments. For an example of the worst-case scenario, look at the career of Josh Phelps.

But, on the other hand (putting on rose-coloured glasses), maybe he doesn't have many weaknesses. There aren't a lot of hitters who can jump straight up from double-A and begin mashing major league pitching. At this point, it's probably safe to say that the Jays' second base problem is solved. (Somewhere, quietly, Maicer Izturis is very unhappy.)

i'm not sure gibbons cares so much about hutch's stats as he did about getting his bullpen some rest. hutch had a big lead, was only at 70 something pitches, and was heading back down to the bottom of their order....i think he had to try to get him through one more inning there.

Plenty of relievers can handle a 90 inning workload. It depends on whether it is 70 appearances, 90 innings, which is a recipe for early burnout, or 40 appearances, 90 innings, which is a much lighter load than most starters bear.   Duane Ward was going 65-80 appearances, 100-120 innings per year.  That is pretty clearly too much, but it was also a function of the shorter bullpens of the time.  If you've got 3 pitchers ready to go 3 innings in the pen, there shouldn't be a need to overwork them. 

One of the many things that I have liked about Kevin Cash early on in his managerial career was the decision to pull Erasmo Ramirez four days ago after 4 innings.  Ramirez had thrown 4 pretty good innings (1 run, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts) and only 58 pitches (having already thrown 50 and 91 in earlier starts).  The score was tied.  On came Brandon Gomes to start the top of the 5th.  Gomes threw 2 scoreless innings, and I was pretty sure that Ramirez wouldn't have done that if left in.  Cash was evidently not worried about giving Ramirez an opportunity to win the game.

Erasmo Ramirez isn't really stretched out to be a starter at this point, which is likely why he was pulled after four innings. He's pitched in five games this season, only two of which were starts (with the one going four innings being his longest appearance). Both games he's started have been against us, so it's easy to be confused.

Suppose that you have five starters averaging 5 innings per start. That leaves 20 innings every five games, or over 600 innings over the course of a season. If you have a 7-man pen, you need at least five guys who can throw 100 semi-reasonable innings (assuming that your pen needs a closer and a LOOGY). That's hard to find.

Of course, the Jays' starters aren't going to have an average number of innings that is that low. But I still maintain that Gibbons can't afford to pull his starters too early too often. Especially given that extra-inning games happen. (Jim Fregosi used to be a very quick hook, and ran into a stretch of multiple extra-inning games. At one point, he basically had to look at his bullpen and decide which of his pitchers needed to sacrifice his arm for the cause.)

And it's not as if the Jays' bullpen is significantly better than the starters.

(Talking baseball is fun!)

Interesting situation for the game in Baltimore today. They're going to play, but due to the ongoing rioting in the city, there will be no fans at the game.

Suppose that you have five starters averaging 5 innings per start... Of course, the Jays' starters aren't going to have an average number of innings that is that low.

They are at 5.4 right now! One imagines (hopes?) that eventually the big three will find some sort of groove and deliver some consistent 6-7 inning starts.

As an aside, I think Hendriks may have pitched himself out of a long role and may start seeing some higher leverage late-inning appearances, especially with fellow RH Castro struggling. There are high leverage RH innings out there for the taking.

The 'no fans allowed' stuff is pretty pathetic imo.  I mean you have metal detectors and security there so maybe just no alcohol for the game to help keep things calmer.  Seems too many people in power think they need to clamp down to a crazy degree.  The reports I'm reading indicate thousands protested peacefully but a handful of crazies got the damage going which kept getting worse due to poor crowd control and the like.  Ah well, at least now we have an easy answer for what game had the fewest people in the stands.  An article I read somewhere said something like 6 was the previous low (back in the 1800's for a game between two teams that were know to be folding after the season).

when you really think about it, loup is the only RP that us really limited to short-relief usage. and maybe cecil.

but all the others have starter's arsenals and some success as starters very recently. they can all go long.

I don't quite understand all the handwringing about Sanchez - I disregard his 1st start because the Jays foolishly let him sit so long after his last spring start - could have pitched him in game 1 relieve or optioned him early enough to make a minor league start and be on his normal schedule come his 1st start & he seems to be gradually improving and has the most upside in the rotation IMO - the rotation problems so far is that the veterans Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchinson are not pulling their weight.

Regarding Keith Law and prospects ...

I have no truck with the pronouncements of the vast majority of scouts if said pronouncements have an absolutist character. Calling someone who has had minor league success a "non-prospect" is either dead wrong if taken literally, or a weasel word designed to obfuscate the fact that scouting is an inherently fuzzy occupation.

I remember a time when a Blue Jays scout (perhaps repeated by Keith Law) said that Kurt Suzuki wouldn't make it because his swing was too slow and that would get exposed by the transition from metal to wood bats. The Kurt Suzuki who has had a decade plus long productive career at catcher and surely is among the most successful major leaguers of his draft class.

Or I remember hearing the buzz about Mark Prior and how his "perfect" mechanics greatly reduce his risk of injury.

Or the oft repeated refrain that X, Y or Z pitcher's "ceiling" is a number third starter because he only throws 88 miles an hour. I wonder what the scouts said about Greg Maddux's ceiling coming up - he was never a hard thrower so he would very likely have been one of those guys about whom it was said.

These are but three of the numerous examples that illustrate the hyperbolic tendencies of the scouting community and is the main reason why NO ONE should take the word of a scout as definitive.

Regarding Travis in particular...

Provided he can limit his strikeouts, he will be a .280 to 300 hitter with solid power. The reason for this is that he has shown great skill in hitting the ball to the opposite field. I don't mean the kind of poke singles that many middle infielders produce, but very hard hit balls that will occasionally leave the yard. That kind of opposite field power is extremely rare among middle infielders.

He does not remind me of Joe Morgan at all. Joe had an exceptionally high walk rate for a non-power hitter and was among the very best base stealers of his era. Travis reminds me of Lou Whitaker. Lou was never flashy but was among the most consistently valuable players of his day, something that Bill James brought to light.

Of course, Whitaker was very durable for a second baseman and we can't assume that for Travis or any other young second baseman.

He does not remind me of Joe Morgan at all. Joe had an exceptionally high walk rate for a non-power hitter and was among the very best base stealers of his era.

Bill James wrote in the Abstract, I'm guessing around '83, that in the mid-70's Joe 'towered above baseball like Babe Ruth playing in a Babe Ruth League.The two greatest second baseman of all time are Joe Morgan and Charlie Gehringer'. Or something close.

Joe had an exceptionally high walk rate for a non-power hitter,

Joe led the league in slugging his second MVP year, after slugging .508 the year before.

I'm not totally following your post (Robert) re: scouting.

Did you just say that nobody should take a Scout's word as definitive and then definitively tell us, through scouting, why Travis will be successful?

Anyone else have the O's game on? Weird with the empty park and the PA announcer still yakking. Free on MLB.tv

What I meant about Joe Morgan not being a power hitter was not in reference to his slugging percentage, but to his value profile. Homeruns were a relatively small part of his value - with walks, doubles, singles, steals and (last but not least) position value making up the large bulk of it. Contrast that with Dave Kingman - whose "value" largely resided in home runs.

Additionally, Cincy was an exceptionally good hitters' park for the era, with the turf helping to create a large number of extra base hits for speedy players. Of course, the Reds had more team speed than anybody else (KC Royals perhaps excepted) and I don't think I've seen a team as well designed for their home park since then.

About the Bill James comment... I'd be surprised if it was Charlie Gehringer he included with Joe. It would have been Eddie Collins. Bill, as I recall, went back and forth ranking them as 1 and 2 among all-time 2B, before rightly settling on Joe. Collins and Hornsby were the only 2Bs before Joe to sustain an elite peak at the position for over a decade. Bill discounted Hornsby a lot for his perceived defensive deficiencies. In my opinion he should have also knocked Collins down some for positional adjustment.

It's a bit strange for us modern day fans, but before 1930, 2B was considered the least demanding infield position and teams frequently put one of their best hitters there. In an era where errors were plentiful and ground ball double plays weren't, good defensive play at 1B was key to reducing errors, while fielding and throwing the ball in time at 3B and SS with the rough infields they had was difficult. 2B was easier because of the short throw.

All the infield positions were more important than the outfield until Babe Ruth proved you could productively hit fly balls. It wasn't until the late '20s that most teams had come up with one or two examples of the new breed of power hitters that would end up taking over the game in the 1950s.

"Did you just say that nobody should take a Scout's word as definitive and then definitively tell us, through scouting, why Travis will be successful?"

How am I being definitive about Travis? I am simply analyzing what I see his abilities are. Hitting .280 to .300 is shorthand for being a relatively high average hitter. It doesn't mean he won't hit .276 or .315 over a 5 year period.

I didn't say Travis can't do this or that (which is one of two types of mistakes scouts make which I am ranting against; the other being that using "can't miss" language), only that he will do something IF something else happens. Of course when I use the word "will" we all understand that it is subject to him staying healthy - that is implied in every analysis of a ballplayer's future.

keith law is not actually a scout, of course. he is an expert BSer, though. and yes it takes one to know one?

of course i'm starting to understand that smart front offices are becoming very good at using these prospect rankers to goose prospect values.

It's great to hear from you, Robert. 

One of the things that Bill James did not have when writing about Joe Morgan back in the day was his home/road splits, particularly in the Astrodome.  Bill wrote back then that Joe's power was held back in his 20s by the Astrodome. Now that we have his home/road splits, we can see that Joe didn't hit for significant power on the road in his 20s and actually hit better at the Astrodome than on the road.  Joe added power in his 30s and it was seen as much on the road as at home. 

I agree that Travis has a different skill profile from Joe Morgan.  I doubt Joe Morgan hit 10 home runs of 430 feet or more in his career, and I don't ever remember him hitting a home run to left-centerfield.  Joe also had a hawklike approach to the strike zone and of course, was very fast and a superb base-stealer.  The modern second baseman who started out with the most similar skill set to Morgan would probably be Pedroia (who was subject to the same criticisms from scouts as Travis strangely enough).  The one thing that Morgan, Pedroia and Travis share would be a high baseball IQ.  Morgan was, of course, exceptional in that department. 

I've seen a Bill Madlock comp for Travis that feels about right (maybe without the batting crowns). Some batting average, some power, some walks, some running. A broad offensive skill set.

As a hitter maybe. Madlock didn't have a quick turn at second base.  He came up as a third baseman and just had a couple of years at second in mid-career.

Interesting lineup from Gibbons tonight.  Five right-handed hitters followed by three left-handed hitters and a switch-hitter who hits better left.  I guess Gibbons has decided that Pillar is right now a better hitter than Saunders or Pompey against RHP.  Hot-hand theory perhaps?

I think the walks will be the most interesting part of Travis' skillset. He has very advanced contact ability. Sometimes that contact ability translates into walks as those with this skill define what they can and can't hit with authority. Sometimes that skill translates into Frank Catalanatto. I don't yet have a sense of where Travis will end up on that scale. Even without walks he looks to have the potential to be an above average offensive player for his position.

Oh yeah. Madlock as an offensive comp only.

sitting Martin in the swing game in fenway instead of an afternoon game vs Cleveland, when we're already shorthanded, just because thole must catch dickey even though he doesn't, bugs me.

Got ya Robert, I just took the "will be" as exactly what you were describing above.

Realistically, where do you guys see Travis ending up the season? He's obviously off to an amazing start, his BABIP is very high at .370 but post some similar BABIP's in the minors (although from what I understand MLB BABIP is generally lower than MiLB, which makes sense). As well, his ISO of .329 is probably not sustainable, he was about half of that in the minors. His walk and K rates look about right so far in 2015. .280/.330/.440? Maybe a little higher with the great start? Obviously a crap shoot, but just curious on some various opinions.

not pinch hitting for the backup catcher with the tying run on base in the 7th hurts my heart.

Nice play by Saunders. 

I have no idea why Thole took that AB.

Blue Jays don't  pinch hit.

Martin for Saunders in the ninth?  Why?

so aggravating. that's what you get for intentionally fielding an inferior team for no good reason.

i love gibby but he's starting to bug me.

The game-managing there left something to be desired.  If you're not going to pinch-hit Martin for Thole when it really counts, why would you pinch-hit him for Saunders down by 3 and 2 outs in the ninth?  Does Gibbons believe the fact that Martin was 1-2 against Uehara is somehow meaningful?

Righty batters hitting .363 vs Uehara and lefties are hitting .125 so far this season. That's the reason given - not saying I agree with it, the sample size is tiny, 11 AB's and 8 AB's. For his career, Uehara has an opponents' OPS about the same vs lefties and righties.

Easy to pile on when a team is losing, but Gibbons has the deer in the headlights thing going on these days.

Some former Jays having solid starts to 2015, Rasmus, Morrow, and Marisnick.

Give Scott Copeland a Major League start. It's not as if the guy he would be replacing is mowin' 'em down. And Infante and Schultz are pretty close to demanding consideration. It's been a month. The Blue Jays pitching has not been good. They have options and should be seriously considering using some of them.

Had to check...
Rasmus:  132 OPS+ in 19 games for Houston
Morrow: 4 starts, 2.67 ERA over 27 IP, 22 H 8 R/ER 2 HR 6 BB 19 SO the great tease is at it again.
Marisnick: 200 OPS+ in 18 games for Houston 58 over his previous 105 games.

Danny Valencia in RF tonight facing the left-hander. 

Danny Valencia in RF tonight facing the left-hander.

That has the potential to end badly. With Norris going, most Indian batters are going to be hitting right, and thus the balls hit to right can be harder to play.

Perhaps this has already been discussed, but I'm a bit surprised by what appears to be the permanent shift of Pompey to left field. He seems to have been supplanted by Pillar in centre. This followed immediately upon the game in Tampa when Tolleson and Pompey almost collided, and even assuming that was all Pompey's fault it seems an over-reaction. I think Pompey has better range than Pillar, even with what at times appear to be stuttered breaks on the ball. Maybe Pompey is now the 4th outfielder and will be sent down when Bautista is ready for right.

Goins/Diaz is a platoon?

A defensive one I suppose.

Lots of people assumed (perhaps buoyed by his September stats and home run off Felix) that Pompey would be ready to take over the starting centre field job coming out of spring training. This might have been wishful thinking.

nothing pompey did wrong, just pillar doing it better.

as for the rf/lf thing, gibbons clearly values the bigger arm in rf over range, which may or may not be right.

as an aside, i think valencia has looked pretty comfortable in the outfield. couldn turn out that 3B was his worst position, much like bautista before him.

Pompey isn't doing anything "wrong" but he is hitting 197/274/355 (77 wRC+ before tonight's 0/1 start), which is a couple of notches below his 231/302/436 (104 wRC+) from last September that people were citing as evidence of his readiness to start in CF this season.

I like Pompey as a prospect and admired his ascent last year but I've also been circumspect about his big-league readiness. His talent is evident but he is still somewhat raw, in my view.

yeah you could be right. but it might be some babip luck too. we'll see. he's shown patience and power so far but not enough contact....but despite a couple of misplays his defense has been excellent enough that he doesn't need a ton of bat to be valuable.

it's nice that pillar's playing well enough that pompey's gonna have to earn it, at least. and if he can't hack it sending him down is always an option.