"....Odds are he will probably miss the entire three game series...."

For what it's worth, Bautista says he's able to hit and is available tonight if the Jays want to use him.  Says it wasn't his decision not to play tonight.  Gibbons says "hopefully" he will be in the lineup tomorrow (as DH).  Of course that could be overly optimistic, but that's what Gibbons is saying, and some of the Jays beat reporters seem to agree.  But nobody knows when he'll be able to throw again.  He's hoping to be in the OF when the Jays lose the DH for their NL road trip next Monday, but there's certainly no assurance of that.

Soto has the oddest routine for throwing back to the mound that I've ever seen. I wonder if he's suffered from the yips in the past, and that on-the-right-knee is his 'fix'.

Hutchison has 4 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last 4 outings.  He should be fine in the long-run notwithstanding the unpleasant ERA.

And in answer to all my frustrations with Hutchison this season he decides to throw a Maddux at the ChiSox. Good Hutchison is fun to watch. His ERA almost dropped a full run tonight.

8K, 0 BB, 0 R, CG, 96 pitches - 70 strikes. That was some fine pitching. The White Sox are one of the worst hitting teams, but still, that was outstanding.

It looked to me that Hutchison was working a lot faster tonight.

Another superbly managed game by John Gibbons; he's really getting the hang of it lately. I hope he can continue his hot streak tomorrow.

Looking at the White Sox lineup makes me wonder what the fuss was all about this winter. The expectations for Sale and Abreu were higher that their productions thus far but it's not a team loaded with high-end talent. Samardzija is an impending FA, so he may be a AA target over the coming months.

facetious manager praise in one sided wins unfortunately doesn't make anyone feel better about certain costly decisions he's made late in close games.

Yes, I'm confused. I thought there was a legitimate and interesting debate about Gibbons's decisions regarding when to pull his starting pitcher in a couple of games in the Angels series.

I wonder whether the Jays should suck it up and DL Bautista. They need him to get fully healthy for the second half and for next year. Shoulder injuries can be problematic.

facetious manager praise in one sided wins unfortunately doesn't make anyone feel better

That's right, we shouldn't forget to praise Pete Walker in all this. A fine job motivating Hutchison to throw the shutout.

Soto has the oddest routine for throwing back to the mound that I've ever seen. I wonder if he's suffered from the yips in the past

Didn't see the game but this yips thing for Soto is definitely out there being debated.

I wonder whether the Jays should suck it up and DL Bautista. They need him to get fully healthy for the second half and for next year. Shoulder injuries can be problematic.

Yeah, he's really not winning ballgames by being a good DH. Saunders needs another 2 to 4 weeks to heal a bone bruise and Pompey is still struggling, so the options are limited. Navarro is quietly rehabing. There's no room for him and Bautista.

"The progression wasn’t going the way I expected or as quick as I expected," Bautista said during a pre-game availability. "I was looking for some relief, not only on the field for my work life but also regular life — having throbbing pain at night is not necessarily enjoyable.

"I was having to take pain medicine just to go to sleep and that was messing up my stomach. It was just time. I had been on the pain medicine for too long anyway so it was time to cut that off and try alternatives and this is the least invasive out of all the other alternatives that were left over."

The plan of DHing Bautista every day while he recovers hasn't exactly been working.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-hope-bautista-returns-to-rf-next-week/

Also lets you keep Colabello's scorching bat in the lineup without turning right field into Area 15. Like the pitchers would mind.

Jose said earlier he was shooting/hoping for that, but that sounds like Jose being Jose to me.  I'm probably more worried about Bautista's shoulder than I am about any other issue with the Jays right now.  This OF is paper-thin.

Of course, there isn't exactly another RF available right now (or any OF) that is knocking the door down.

If Bautista gets DL'd, who do you bring up?  Pompey?  Dickerson?  Personally, I'll gamble with Joey at DH as long as he says he can do it unless by sitting for 2 weeks we can guarantee he'll be able to play the OF after that.

joey getting DLed would just put smoak back in the starting lineup. cola would stay in rf and carrera/valencia platoon in left.

travis would take the roster spot when activated next week.

Sure.  And how is the team better with Smoak in the lineup rather than Bautista?

Improved 1B defence, Edwin gets to DH.  I'll take my chances with Jose at DH and Edwin at 1B, I think.

That would be kind of stupid, but I guess it's probably what this team would do. In Bautista's absence they should just play Carrera everyday - his bat is competent against RH and unnecessary against LH.

I feel bad for Smoak - Bautista's injury killed his playing time and if Bautista returns to RF, Colabello's bat if it stays hot, probably goes to 1B. I do hope that eventually, the LHB bats of Smoak & Saunders find their way into regular At-Bats.

"And how is the team better with Smoak in the lineup rather than Bautista?"

not sure who suggested that bautista going on the dl would improve the team?

"That would be kind of stupid, but I guess it's probably what this team would do. In Bautista's absence they should just play Carrera everyday - his bat is competent against RH and unnecessary against LH."

i don't think it's stupid. if bautista is out we need hitters, and we should be able to afford one subpar defensive position on the field.

Could the Jays entertain the idea of Smoak the LF or RF ?

It would be tough for him to look worse out there than Chris Colabello, so why the heck not? I just don't see how Smoak in the OF is your best lineup.

There are suggestions above that the Jays should just DL Bautista since he's not helping the team at DH.  DL'ing Bautista when he can DH simply opens up playing time for Smoak (and allows Edwin to DH).  I suggest that the team is more helped with Bautista in the lineup in any fashion, even at DH, rather than having Smoak take those at-bats.

Sorry, just realize now I responded to your comment by accident.  My original reply to you was intended for a different comment.

"DL Bautista since he's not helping the team at DH. "

i agree i assume a DL stint would be because he's injured, because obviously he helps the team at Dh, what with being our best hitter and all.

"Could the Jays entertain the idea of Smoak the LF or RF ?"

don't see why.

Cola is out there simply because he's been one of the very best bats in all mlb this year.

Could the Jays entertain the idea of Smoak the LF or RF?

As slow and lumbering as Colabello is in the outfield, I would guess that Smoak would be even slower and more lumbering. The man is a sloth.

Colabello's bat is carrying his glove since he is hitting like a crazy man. As he invariably regresses, I'm not sure where the break-even point will be where his bat stops carrying his glove. This could be moot, however, since he could well be an ex-outfielder (and instead a 1B/DH) by that time.

Navarro must be on the sidelines no longer just worrying about Smoak stealing his at-bats, but now Colabello all the more. He may have to resign himself to Thole's old job upon his return.

The alternative to DL'ing Bautista is to decide he's the permanent DH, and revamp the roster accordingly. Granted, this is dependent on the idea that he can still hit (the numbers say so) and isn't in pain as long as he's not trying to throw.

Maybe that means you drop Smoak or Colabello (as Chuck says, I'm not sure Smoak is likely to be as "good" out there as Colabello), and find a proper right fielder. I don't know what, if anything, the team is likely to get out of Michael Saunders this year; certainly, the defensive expectations need to be lowered.

My point is to expand the defensive position versatility for our hitters:
Valencia has shown he can play 1B, 3B, LF, RF
Colabello can play 1B. Can he play 3B ?

a nominal 3B like valencia being able to play 1b and the corner OFs isn't a stretch but a 1B/DH like Cola being passable at any other position is a bit of one.

on a related note, here's a fantastic new article on defensive value a d positional adjustments: http://www.hardballtimes.com/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/


well well worth the read.

The off-season suggested a pitcher friendly defensive outfield of Saunders/Pillar, Pompey and Bautista, with the recognition that Bautista was nowhere near as great as the hometown media would have you believe.

Now the team is running infielders out to the outfield corners with no reprieve in sight. The would be saviours are a hurt Bautista, a hurt Saunders and a struggling Pompey.

Yankee-style, the talent is getting bunched to the wrong end of the defensive spectrum. A team can only carry so many 1B/DH types, and these guys don't typically carry tons of trade value when you are trying to get real position players back. If Adam Lind were still on this team, where would he get his playing time? I guess he'd be forced back into LF where he'd look no worse than Colabello or Valencia, I imagine.

Wasn't DH meant to be EE's safe landing spot? How quickly plans unravel.

If Bautista gets DL'd, who do you bring up?  Pompey?  Dickerson?  Personally, I'll gamble with Joey at DH as long as he says he can do it unless by sitting for 2 weeks we can guarantee he'll be able to play the OF after that.

I agree with this idea; however bring Dickerson up is also a good idea. Just like testing Jeff Francis against MLB hitters, putting Dickerson early in this season help the Jays know if he can help the Jays.

When I knew the Indians brought Shawn Marcum to Cleveland, I thought of Randy Wolf. Maybe keeping veteran pitchers in Buffalo is a very good idea but Wolf is OLD.

My point is to expand the defensive position versatility for our hitters

Just because you can man a position, it does not mean you can play it. In a perfect health scenario, Valencia and Colabello would not spend a single inning in the outfield and Tolleson would not play any SS. These players have been pressed into duties they are not qualified for. It looks like versatility, but it is really desperation.

valencia looks solid in the corner OFs, and imo that's not all that big a surprise. he might be better out there than at 3B.

but Wolf is OLD

Far less worrisome than his age is the gap in time since he was last effective. Same for Francis. And Santana, if he ever pitches again.

Colabello can play 1B. Can he play 3B?

I thought we'd all agreed he was going to play 2B.

Jays rank 2nd mlb in DRS at +27.

Jays rank 6th mlb in uzr/150 at +7.2.

I think people are worrying too much about the defense.

Valencia's inability to catch a ball that the majority of MLB OFs catch had a huge effect on the game on Saturday. Willie freaking Bloomquist.

according to fangraphs' player value metrics, here's how the jays rank defensively at each position so far this year:

C: +5.5 (1st)
2B: +4.3 (2nd)
CF: +4.6 (6th)
3B: +3.5 (7th)
RF: -0.5 (10th)
1B: -2.5 (10th)
SS: +3.2 (13th)
LF: -7.6 (28th)

one subpar position so far.

"Valencia's inability to catch a ball that the majority of MLB OFs catch had a huge effect on the game on Saturday. Willie freaking Bloomquist."

the one off the top of the wall?

yeah, no.

SS: +3.2 (13th)

Goins out, Reyes in. This will get worse.

RF: -0.5 (10th)

Less Bautisa. More cowbell, er, Colabello. This will get worse.

Was not expecting to see those numbers.  Huh.

When I look at Inside Edge Fielding, the Jays are converting an insane 16.1% of 0-10% plays, for best in the league by 7% over 2nd place.  They are top 10 in the league in most categories, oddly enough with the exception of 90-100% plays, although the variance there among teams across the league is very small.

Not sure what to take from that, but it would seem that some of the defensive concerns may be overblown.  That said, without digging into the minutiae, I imagine that a few players are responsible for driving this team defensively, while others are not exactly pulling their weight.

A quick and dirty look suggests that yup, it's Russ Martin, Kevin Pillar, and Josh Donaldson as your three regulars making the routine and spectacular plays that are pulling this team into respectable defensive numbers. 

I'm not sure it's quite as rosy as "2nd and 6th in DRS/UZR/150", but with premium defenders at premium spots, that covers a lot of holes.

I would say that if you are going to have to have weak defenders, the Jays generally have them in the right spots (corner OF, 1B).

Chuck - Reyes has actually been worth significantly more of that SS defensive value than goins this year. the turf has done wonders for his range it seems, while his glove and arm are still plus.

and yes Cola is bad in the OF, but both valencia and carrera have been good to excellent so far (all 3 have played both corners), so again we're looking at one defensive trouble spot on the field.

Yeah, I realized after I posted it I should have added Travis/2B as a spot that was pulling up the Jays numbers. 

Again, they seem good-to-elite up the middle and at 3B, and passable in most other spots (other than LF, apparently).  I'm quickly warming up to your point of view here, and Reyes' range does seem dramatically improved by the turf.  I'm pretty sure the game ending grounder last night is a hit last year, but that shouldn't detract from an excellent play by Reyes to make that out (to cherry pick one recent and very favourable example).

Reyes has actually been worth significantly more of that SS defensive value than goins this year. the turf has done wonders for his range it seems, while his glove and arm are still plus.

I am reluctant to accept this as the truth based on 130 defensive innings. Subjectively, Goins sure seems like a much better defensive shortstop than Reyes.

"....Subjectively, Goins sure seems like a much better defensive shortstop than Reyes...."

This article, citing Inside Edge scouting data (every play graded by a scout), concludes that Goins would have prevented 16 hits that Reyes allowed last year, if Goins had played all of the 143 games that Reyes played last season:

http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/05/25/a-quick-and-dirty-and-perhaps-dubious-follow-up-on-reyes-goins-raw-numbers-and-inside-edge-data/#more-29711

Of course it also concludes that Reyes contributed far more with the bat than he lost with the glove.

I misspoke on SS - I forgot just how much time reyes had missed.

Here's the defensive value breakdowns. Huge SSS warning in effect for these numbers.

SS

Goins 235.0inn, +2.2def
Reyes 131.1inn, +1.7def
Diaz 21.0inn, +0.1def
Tolleson 22.0inn, -0.8def

RF

Carrera 95.0inn, +2.3
Saunders 49.1inn, +1.4
Bautista 119.0inn, +0.7
Valencia 14.0inn, +0.5
Goins 2.0inn, +0.0
Tolleson 4.0inn, -0.1
Pillar 26.0inn, -0.4
Colabello 99.0inn, -5.0

LF

Pillar 120.0inn, +1.1
Carrera 36.0inn, +0.0
Goins 9.0inn, -0.3
Saunders 26.0inn, -0.5
Valencia 26.0inn, -1.0
Colabello 68.0inn, -1.4
Tolleson 14.0inn, -2.6
Pompey 49.1inn, -2.9

COF

Carrera 131.0inn, +2.3
Saunders 75.1inn, +0.9
Bautista 119.0inn, +0.7
Pillar 146.0inn, +0.7
Valencia 40.0inn, -0.5
Goins 11.0inn, -0.3
Pompey 49.1inn, -2.9
Tolleson 18.0inn, -2.7
Colabello 167inn, -6.4

CF

Pompey 146.0inn, +2.4
Pillar 254.1inn, +2.0
Carrera 9.0inn, +0.2

3B

Donaldson 380.1inn, +2.5
Valencia 27.0inn, +0.9
Goins 2.0inn, +0.1

2B

Travis 296.1inn, +2.7
Tolleson 69.0inn, +1.9
Kawasaki 18.0inn, +0.5
Goins 26.0inn, -0.9

1B

Valencia 9.0inn, +0.0
Smoak 154.0inn, -0.4
Encarnacion 246.1inn, -2.1

C

Martin 341.1inn, +5.9
Navarro 18.0inn, +0.2
Thole 50.0inn, -0.6


obviously a ton of noise in there but it mostly reflects my eye test impressions too.

"I am reluctant to accept this as the truth based on 130 defensive innings. Subjectively, Goins sure seems like a much better defensive shortstop than Reyes."

as you absolutely should. goins is the better defensive SS, but i'm just pointing out that rightly or wrongly he's not actually carrying that jays good SS defensive ranking alone.

though with the turf seemingly helping reyes with his biggest weakness (range), it sure seems to be letting him show off his great hands and arms some more. based on watching him i'm not surprise the numbers see a good defensive ss there this year. that pick and throw up the middle to end the game last night sure reminded me why this guys used to be considered one of the best defenwive ss out there. sure looked pretty.

"the one off the top of the wall?

yeah, no."

Yes, that's exactly the one. The one that hung up in the air for more than enough time that Valencia approached the warning track but then got too scared to finish the catch. Joe Siddall was of the opinion that Pillar or Pompey makes that catch, and for me the replay confirms that conviction. During the TV broadcast Buck and Tabby were busy explaining how the ball carried further than the OFs expect at the Dome, which said to me they were coming up with an excuse for a ball they thought off the bat should have been caught not being handled.

"the turf has done wonders for his range it seems, while his glove and arm are still plus."

It would have been a very wise move if the primary factor behind the revamping of the turf was Jose Reyes' contract anchoring him at SS for the next few years.

"Joe Siddall was of the opinion that Pillar or Pompey makes that catch, and for me the replay confirms that conviction."

Pillar or Pompey, two plus defensive CFs? yeah i agree, they make that catch. probably.

your run of the mill average LFer? unlikely.

"unlikely" is what Inside Edge labeled it, incidentally.

so Bautista is back in the lineup tonight.

and martin sits. since danks is on the mound, i'll agree with gibber this time.

When Bautista returns to RF & if the Jays Believe Colabello's bat is for real - The Giants need a 3B & Valencia can play 3B - use Goins/Tolleson when Donaldson needs the day off.

Some good news:  Bautista reports that he is pain-free after the cortisone injection.  Today he threw balls from 90 feet, and then fielded balls in RF.  If he continues to progress, he could be ready for the National League games next week.  Of course we have to be cautious -- a setback could happen at any time -- but a return to the OF would certainly be great news for roster construction options.

Also, Navarro is playing for Buffalo tonight as he begins his rehab games.  He's not needed at DH any more -- the DH spot will be taken over by Encarnacion and Colabello as soon as Bautista returns to the outfield -- but he still represents an upgrade over Thole in the back-up catcher role.  Any small improvement in the lineup is still a help.

Maybe it helps, but I don't really see it. Dickey hasn't won a game caught by Martin yet.
That's not to say that he pitches better with Thole, but it hasn't helped the bottom line.

It would have been a very wise move if the primary factor behind the revamping of the turf was Jose Reyes' contract anchoring him at SS for the next few years.

Great, if that's really the plan then by the end of 2017 the infield turf is probably going to be three feet deep.

Anyone else notice that Colabello's bat tape and batting gloves contain the same colour (iirc) as the arm wrap Juan Francisco wore last year? Surely that Pantone should be banned!

It's not really fair to Dickey to put this defence behind him.  It's been pretty bad tonight.

so done making excuses for dickey. he simply hasn't been mlb quality this year.

Dickey definitely has been bad this year, but if you are going to keep giving him the ball, it's a good idea to put a half-decent defence behind him.

imo the defense out there is half decent. dickey isn't.

now that they got back the lead...for the third time....imo the smart move for gibby would be to pull dickey right now.

It is also on Donaldson's cleats. Back to the 80s with that color.

good. dickey out.

now make gibber look smart, bullpen.

It sometimes happens that putting a player out of position (like Colabello obviously is) eventually affects performance with the bat.

welp. not a good start, tepera.

you owe us a rabbit out if your hat, loup.

at least one.

sucks when its the good defenders - pillar Donaldson goins - who can't get it done.

just don't give up the lead loup.

How is that slide by Eaton deemed legal? If jumping up into a defender and essentially throwing a shoulder block into his midsection is Not interference what is?

yeah seems there's been lotsa real nasty slides at 2nd this year.some by us.

interesting osuna was the 7th inning guy, though that might be because it was the middle of the order with the bottom coming up in the 8th.

but who do we think the 8th goes to? hendriks or delabar? would be one of the first times hendriks gets this kind of role if he's the choice.

Hendriks it is. a quick inning here and he might have a new role.

great aggressive send by 3rd base coach even before he screwed up defensively. i like it.

hendtiks-cecil to close out a 1 run game.

we need this.

heh.

back to the drawing board.

You'd expect so much more from minor league non-prospect organizational filler like Tepera and Hendriks.

I wonder what Gibbons ever did to the pitching staff to deserve this abuse? Remarkable ........

all that time spent earning a real shot and hendriks pukes all over himself. what a shame.

Sure, the White Sox will win the game, but it'll be worth it to be able to feel smug about not being like the White Sox and spending money on a Proven Closer (tm). The joke's on them for not being able to to enjoy our sense of ironic detachment and new-school contrarianism.

Oh well.  Hendriks didn't pitch that badly, but it wasn't his night. 

I'll take the heat for this one...

Liam, I've been promoting you as a potential Wade Davis Lite. What are you doing with this opportunity?

When Bautista returns to RF & if the Jays Believe Colabello's bat is for real - The Giants need a 3B & Valencia can play 3B - use Goins/Tolleson when Donaldson needs the day off

Trading him to Giants for Cash. Then promote RHB Hague or LHB Dickerson ? Maybe it is time to put Hague in Buffalo COF.

so both BAL and TB also have tight 8th leads blow up in their faces tonight. tough year for the AL east.

Martin the PH; who plays 2B in the 9th ? Valencia?

No double-switch, leaving Martin in the game and swapping Carrera in for Thole?

"feel smug about not being like the White Sox and spending money on a Proven Closer (tm)."

yup.

If Reyes' throw is just a bit higher and closer to the first base bag, Abreu is likely out and it's a completely different ball game. Game of inches and all that.

Likewise with Hendriks. He had Eaton completely overmatched but he managed to throw the bat at that two strike slider and it somehow dropped lazily into RF. One unfortunate outing doesn't undo for me the excellent work Hendriks has done so far.

Had 'em all the way.

I still can't believe Josh Donaldson is a blue Jay.

and for secondary parts....at best.

just crazy.

Josh Donaldson rules, yo.

Good move by Gibbons leaving Josh in there to bat in the bottom of the ninth. 

Who wrote the script for this game?

Not to dispute your main point but Barreto was not and will not be a secondary part. He can hit.

Thole considerably closed the offensive gap between him and Navarro tonight. He had an OPS+ of 5 before the game.

After losing so many games we should have won, this happens. The Jays managed to blow 4 leads and end up beating one of the best late inning guys in baseball.

"Not to dispute your main point but Barreto was not and will not be a secondary part. He can hit."

he might. i love the kid but he was a good, not great, prospect, still in short season ball. those guys fail all the time.

hard to call him a good primary piece in a deal for an mvp candidate on a bargain contract.

rays complete the 9th inning comeback from their own badly blown save, but only to tie not take the lead. on to extras.

orioles unable to comeback from their blown save.

Barreto is now in high A. He struggled in April, was then injured and he has bee hitting well since he came back.

I'd like to claim credit for a reverse jinx, but I'll admit my comeuppance.

But the Jays' bullpen is still terrible.

"Sure, the White Sox will win the game, but it'll be worth it to be able to feel smug about not being like the White Sox and spending money on a Proven Closer (tm). The joke's on them for not being able to to enjoy our sense of ironic detachment and new-school contrarianism."

So about that proven closer.....

Comeuppance...admitted comeuppance, Hodgie...

It was a reverse jinx so intertwined with both irony and sarcasm that I'm dubbing it Ironicasm.

I don't know if this is ironicastic, but Russell Martin sure is streaky. After a 26-for-60 run, he's gone 1-for-20.

I have to say, it was nice to see the bullpen do their part to bump the Jays record in one run games to 3-10.

FYI, Barreto, a 19 year old in A+ is hitting .325/.368/.494 over the last month.

I still absolutely LOVE the trade, no question about it, especially where the Jays are at currently, but he could be a good one.

What would it take to aquire Johnny Beisbol, assuming he's healthy?? (Cueto) Something tells me he would be more than fine playing for this team, unlike Hammels, as rumoured.

Donaldson leads the team in WAR and that's probably no accident. This is a killer lineup, but Colabello shouldn't be in right field. He has 1.0 offensive WAR and -0.8 defensive WAR.

To the Jays credit, Colabello in RF wasn't "the plan", as opposed to the Red Sox thinking Hanley Ramirez could play LF.

Reading this comment this morning is funny, especially the "Sure, the White Sox will win this game", part.

Josh Donaldson forever.

Steroid-era throwback night at the ballpark, eh?

Beyond Donaldson, Bautista was very impressive at the plate. The two-run double in the third where he took a nasty 2-2 change from Danks outside at the knees and hit it to the track in dead center, and two subsequent hits to right field - not bad. It was also pretty funny when Tolleson turned his single to Melky Cabrera into a double. Finally that works in the Jays' favor...

The Colabello-in-RF thing is an emergency measure, and that's okay if you are desperate for offense I guess, but it would be nice to get him out of there before the regression police arrest his bat. When that happens, if he's still the everyday RF, his glove is going to make him the reactionary fans' whipping boy, which is totally unfair - it's not his fault he's being asked to do something he can't. (Not really the front office's fault, either. It just is what it is.)

Never mind the results - Hendriks was perfectly fine. He was working in pitchers' counts, and check out the location on all of the pitches the Sox hit (except for Ramirez's single, on Hendriks' 20th pitch after they'd already taken the lead). One hopes they will keep running him out there in high-leverage spots. It's not like they have much choice. Osuna is something else entirely and should probably be starting somewhere and maybe that somewhere is Toronto.

Marco Estrada today, and I haven't been terribly impressed by him so far (but it's a small sample). He's been hanging so many changeups that it's not hard to picture why homers have been a chronic bugaboo for him - if that keeps up, he basically needs a negative walk rate to be any good. Although my overwhelming bias toward Pitchability Guys stands and I would really like to be wrong.

Those Collabello numbers are even uglier than I thought! I mean, they're uglier than I realistically expected but actually right in line with how bad he LOOKS out there.

To be worth only a 0.2 net WAR, he has to shed a ton of value on D to almost entirely negate what he's done with the bat so far this year. If Collabello were somehow allowed to finish the year in RF, the Jays could have MLB's first replacement-level player to win a batting title.

It didn't help much last night that it seemed like the Sox hit the ball to RF every time they put it in play.

"Donaldson leads the team in WAR and that's probably no accident."

you mean leads the American League in WAR.

"you mean leads the American League in WAR."

Oh, did he take Russell Martin's spot at the top of the league?

170 qualified MLB hitters.

Donaldson's 165 wRC+ is #2, behind only Bryce Harper.

On the other hand Kevin Pillar's 49 wRC+ is 169 of 170.

FG is kinder to Colabello than Bbref, +0.6 WAR.

".....Colabello shouldn't be in right field. He has 1.0 offensive WAR and -0.8 defensive WAR...."

He'd be fine as a DH or 1B or bench player, even if his hitting regresses somewhat.  Interestingly, his OPS has actually increased in the past few games, even as people keep predicting it to fall drastically.  He's now up to 82 plate appearances with a 1.007 OPS.  His hitting will fall back to earth at some point, but it might fall back to earth at a pretty good number.  He certainly shows why the Jays decided that they could replace Adam Lind at a much cheaper cost.  Colabello and Smoak are a far cheaper replacement for Lind for whatever DH and 1B playing time doesn't go to Encarnacion.

And of course the trading of Lind didn't just reduce the payroll at very little cost to the offense, it also allowed the Jays to acquire tonight's starter.

Brilliant and entertaining comments as usual, Alex.  I concur wholeheartedly with a couple of minor reservations.

The Colabello-in-RF thing is an emergency measure, and that's okay if you are desperate for offense I guess, but it would be nice to get him out of there before the regression police arrest his bat. When that happens, if he's still the everyday RF, his glove is going to make him the reactionary fans' whipping boy, which is totally unfair - it's not his fault he's being asked to do something he can't. (Not really the front office's fault, either. It just is what it is.)

Beast that I am, I cannot wholly let the front office off the hook for this one. The front office knew when they traded Gose that they had five outfielders who were conceivably ready for prime-time (Bautista, Saunders, Pompey, Pillar and Carrera).  That is not a lot, particularly in light of Saunders' durability record and Bautista's age.  They were essentially making a commitment to Pompey and that had to be communicated to the coaching staff.  In those circumstances and certainly after Saunders' spring training injury, it was important for the organization to not send Pompey down at the first sign of trouble (i.e. one bad week).  That was what happened.  It might be more defensible if they had another major-league ready OFer in Buffalo  They didn't.

Never mind the results - Hendriks was perfectly fine. He was working in pitchers' counts, and check out the location on all of the pitches the Sox hit (except for Ramirez's single, on Hendriks' 20th pitch after they'd already taken the lead). One hopes they will keep running him out there in high-leverage spots. It's not like they have much choice. Osuna is something else entirely and should probably be starting somewhere and maybe that somewhere is Toronto.

Bingo.  I would have liked to see a couple of high, tight fastballs to left-handed hitters to keep them honest.  Hendriks can throw 95 out of the pen, and can be effective on both sides of the plate. 

Marco Estrada today, and I haven't been terribly impressed by him so far (but it's a small sample). He's been hanging so many changeups that it's not hard to picture why homers have been a chronic bugaboo for him - if that keeps up, he basically needs a negative walk rate to be any good. Although my overwhelming bias toward Pitchability Guys stands and I would really like to be wrong.

Any good is relative.  He's got a decent career line starting- striking out almost 4 times as many as he walks. The opposition batting line against him is .244/.294/.437, i.e. J.P. Arencibia in a good year.  If he does this for this club, he's valuable enough so that they win 6-5 more often than losing 7-6.   

The story for Estrada is typical of pitchers of his profile (high K/9, high HR/9). He can't walk guys. The homeruns are going to come, no getting around that. But he has to return to a 2.x walk rate, not his current 3.9.

I agree with Mike that the outfielder situation was a known potential problem from the outset, even in advance of Saunders' injury. Plan B could not simply be "we'll just play our spare infielders in the outfield".

I'll also echo my agreement that the lack of OF depth is on the front office. Mitigating that has been the development of Valencia as a valid 4-corners player. He doesn't necessarily look good to me out there, but he also doesn't look bad... Perfectly acceptable, and as we've seen with Colabello, adequacy isn't an automatic. As a 5th OF option, that's a handy thing to have.

As a 5th OF option, that's a handy thing to have.

That I'll accept. Not "you're our starting LF today against a RHP".

It's been a long time since you could say American League Least.

Imagine this offense with everyone healthy.

Dickey continues to worry me - I see him now as an undependable 4/5 starter - Kinda like Wakefield in his last years.

I know the Jays can't afford to do it now but really would like to see Osuna stretched out in Buffalo.

I worry that Colabello will start to take his defensive woes to the plate.

I think the performance of our 2nd string OF has been nothing short of phenomenal, and i doubt there's another team in baseball that could have handled the loss of their entire 1st string OF any better.

"He certainly shows why the Jays decided that they could replace Adam Lind at a much cheaper cost. Colabello and Smoak are a far cheaper replacement for Lind for whatever DH and 1B playing time doesn't go to Encarnacion."

i was a lind fan, but AA does look genius for replacing him with optionable league minimum smoak/cola/barton/wilkins/scott.

Incidentally, was last night's game the perfect teaching opportunity for the sometimes difficult concept of "the cut-off man"?  We can be heroes just for one day, but there's no I in hero.  Sorry.

I worry that Colabello will start to take his defensive woes to the plate.

I'm not so sure about that. John Lott tweeted a quote from Colabello saying his favourite position was the batter's box, so I don't think he ties up a lot of his identity in his glove. I suspect he realizes his bat is his ticket to playing time, and as long as he keeps hitting, the Jays will find room for him.

cola definitely should be in lf, though. they moved him to rf because he said he was more familiar with it but that's meaningless. having carrera's range / valencia's arm in rf is more important.

Can we please go out and make some upgrades now though?  The division is a mess, and it could be ours for the taking.  Lets hit up Philadelphia.  Go and get Papelbon and Revere.  Why not Harang while we are at it?  Take all the salary if you have to.  Send back Navarro as a start, and add whatever is needed.  Shouldn't be much if we take all of Pape's dollars.

Papaelbon closing, Harang as the 5, Estrada back to the pen.  Revere in center with whatever combo of Pillar/JBau/Collabello/Carrera makes sense.

Come on AA, do it.

The problem with the way his hitting vs. fielding is essentially netting out currently, he is leading the MLB in BABIP. It's is .500 right now (Anthony Gose is 2nd).

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13051&position=1B/OF

His hitting won't last like that, if he's in the OF, his fielding will. Hopefully Joey's shoulder continues to feel well, and he can move into a 1B/DH role.

Jays WAR as OF:

1st string:

Bautista 0.3
Pillar 0.1
Pompey 0.1
Saunders -0.1

Total: 0.4 (376pa)

2nd string:

Cola 0.6
Carrera 0.5
Valencia 0.1
Goins -0.1/Tolleson -0.4

Total: 0.7 (204pa)

Getaway day for ChiSox, could help Estrada if guys swing over the change-up.

I think the performance of our 2nd string OF has been nothing short of phenomenal, and i doubt there's another team in baseball that could have handled the loss of their entire 1st string OF any better.

Well, I think most teams could have thrown out more than 5 OFs before hoping and praying with corner IFs. Also, they really didn't lose the starting OF. One member has been lost, one member has been time-shifted to DH (meaning Smoak was the one that was lost), and a third member has been demoted due to performance.

As for the second string, the first member (who was in competition in ST with the demoted first stringer) has had their offence dry up to the point of nearly negating their defence. The second has done well with the glove and not embarrassed himself too much with the bat. The third has done well offensively and not embarrassed himself defensively. Then there's the one that embarrasses pitchers offensively while embarrassing himself defensively. The last two are desperation uses of IF. Again, most other teams wouldn't have had to go there quite so quick. That it has worked out well enough to this point (through the mercies of a decent conversion for one, and from an insane and unsustainable BABIP for the other) doesn't mean that OF depth wasn't an offseason oversight.

How about that outfield defense.....

they didn't have to "get there that quick", though. they could have gone to a dickerson or a glenn as their 5th/6th OF. they could have just brought pompey back up.

but they decided to go with carrera, cola, and valencia...and it has worked.

Colabello now has 487 MLB plate appearances between ages 29-31.  He has a career .325 BABIP and a .242/.310/.402 slash line.  He cannot play outfield, and he plays first base badly.  If you use him as a DH/1B against LHP in tandem with Smoak for a prolonged period, that's fine, but otherwise it's a disaster waiting to happen. 

Gameday is telling me we have Russell Martin at 2B right now?  Is this correct?

Yes.

I always liked that Gibbons isn't afraid to be bold with his assignments from time to time (the man who just gave us 2B Russell Martin is the same one that would occasionally show us SS Troy Glaus).

Incredible.  #GibbyTheBest

Also the best: Josh Donaldson.

Brett Lawrie: 272/303/355

#provencloser(tm)

:)

anyone care to describe that triple?

What I want to know is who stole Jobu's rum?

I'm sure Inside Edge will tell you everything you need to know, but Valencia made a horrendous play to turn a double (single with Abreu running?) into a triple.

what did he do?

It looks like he was trying to catch a ball he didn't have a chance at, and as a result got to close the wall and the ball bounced away from him. He's doing the best he can out there.

ah. overaggressive. inexperienced OF gotta play it safe.

would have been nice to have carrera in there, but it was a smart pinch hit to give us a key run at the time.

Carrera had his own adventure earlier in the game losing a ball in the sun. I feel like it would sting less seeing Bautista make that error.

Syndegaard had a pretty good day on the mound and at the plate today. 

Another good start for Estrada.  Would have been only 1 run in 7 innings (and maybe a win), except for the routine fly that Carrera lost in the sun.  Not a single walk in 7 innings, and only one extra-base hit.

If Estrada keeps pitching well, and if Sanchez continues his recent success, there's a bit of a dilemma when Norris is ready.  The weak link in the rotation these days is Dickey.  But he obviously can't be optioned to the minors, and probably wouldn't have much success in the bullpen.  (He's an innings-eater, not a high-leverage reliever.)   And I'm only semi-serious in raising those latter possibilities, because really the Jays have to keep him in the rotation, unless they can manufacture an "injury" or something.  If Norris is ready, what do they do with him?  Seems a shame to shift Estrada back to the bullpen if he can throw 7 innings of the calibre that he threw tonight. 

".....it was important for the organization to not send Pompey down at the first sign of trouble (i.e. one bad week).  That was what happened...."

Not really sure if this is accurate.  On April 19, after playing every day, his OPS was a dismal .618.  He then proceeded to have two good games, which briefly boosted his OPS to a respectable .793.  Then he was terrible for the next 8 games and was demoted.  So he had basically 3 bad weeks, interrupted by a couple of good games. Not really enough to deserve a full-time job, unless it's on faith.  Since his demotion, he's had a further 73 plate appearances in Buffalo, and he's been even worse.  Despite his nice record in a few meaningless September games last year, he gives every impression of being not quite ready for prime time, and could definitely benefit from some regular playing time in Buffalo.  The only thing that even vaguely merits the thought of promoting Pompey is the fact that Pillar has been even worse -- basically the worst hitter in the majors.  We're getting to the point where Pillar's good glove might not be enough to justify a full-time playing position, especially after we get the return of Bautista, Saunders and perhaps Pompey.   Even Goins is hitting better than Pillar.

Agreed on all fronts China, nothing quick about Pompey's demotion and his AAA results add further ammo to that argument.  now whether he was promoted to quickly is a different story ...

Dickey has to be expendable if the rotation ever stacks up with him as the 6th option.  Uglyone has called him out repeatedly and he's spot on - Dickey has been terrible, and unless he rights the ship, he's a sunk cost.  we have an attractive option on him for the end of the year, but this is a win-now year.  I hope he recovers and i don't necessarily think he's done yet, but if he is, he'd be awesome as the 8th man innings-sponge ....

On April 19, after playing every day, his OPS was a dismal .618.  He then proceeded to have two good games, which briefly boosted his OPS to a respectable .793.

Pompey's BABIP was very low the first few weeks of the season and had returned to a typical number after those two good games.  It was one bad week. 

And as for Dickey to the bullpen, why not?  It's something I have thought of, even though I missed most of Hoyt Wilhelm's career.  At age 41-42, Wilhelm was throwing 130-140 very effective innings a season out of the pen.  It might be harder to hit Dickey's knuckleball if you've spent five or six innings dealing with Hutchison or Sanchez or Norris. 

"....Pompey's BABIP was very low the first few weeks of the season and had returned to a typical number after those two good games.  It was one bad week...."

I get the value of BABIP as a leading indicator, but it's not more important than the results on the field.  The reality is that Pompey had 3 bad weeks and a couple of good games.  If you want to say that he was unlucky, feel free to do so, but the results in Buffalo strongly suggest that he's still struggling.  Nobody is saying that he's been tearing a strip off the ball and just getting unlucky with fielders happening to be where he's hitting it.

Dickey's worst innings (this year especially) are the 4th and 5th innings, so theoretically he would be better as a reliever than a starter.  The problem is that he's not particularly good in the first inning either:  he's allowing the enemy to OPS .778 against him in the first inning this year.  And he's not somebody like Hendriks who would suddenly boost his velocity in shorter stints -- you don't really want that from a knuckleballer. There's no suggestion that Dickey is conserving himself in longer outings.  He pitches with pretty well the same velocity and stuff in every outing, short or long.  So I'm not sure if he would improve as a reliever.   I am, however, intrigued by the suggestion that the opposition might be confounded by a soft-tossing knuckler after 6 or 7 innings of Sanchez or Hutchison.

I get the value of BABIP as a leading indicator, but it's not more important than the results on the field

It's not a leading indicator particularly in this case, but a sign of whether a horrible batting average in a small sample results from striking out too much or bad luck on balls in play.  Pompey started off the season freezing for 6 days, then hit very well for 10 days and then badly for a week.  The point of all of this is not that a player performing as Pompey was ought always to be given a longer chance. Rather, it's that if you clear a path for him and don't have a half decent backup option, you've got to give him more of a chance.  

John Lott reports on twitter that Gibbons said that a player (who shall remain nameless) was unavailable today because "he tweaked his groin".  George Carlin lives...

"He pitches with pretty well the same velocity and stuff in every outing, short or long. So I'm not sure if he would improve as a reliever."

On the Mets, he threw his knuckle at 76.1 and 77.1MPH in 2012 and 2011 respectively. With the Jays, he has been a bit lower. Hypothetically, a move to the pen could return him to a more successful velocity.

It's mildly entertaining to me that 2 weeks ago we were all freaking out over the rotation, and now we are deep enough to be talking about a guy who has thrown over 200 quality innings each of the last 2 years to be shuttled off to the pen, in some cases "As the 8th sponge man".

How quickly the world turns.  Narratives are like buses, apparently - there will be another one along any minute.

Why do we think Norris' return is imminent?

Dickey is 40 years and 6 months old.  He has not looked good this season and in particular, he is not missing bats. Yes, it is true that knuckleballers can go on well past 40 but it's not clear that Dickey can at least in a starting role. 

One significant aspect of the art of managing a pitching staff is putting pitchers in roles that they can succeed in.  It might indeed be that the best thing would be to move Osuna into the rotation and have Dickey in the pen.  It probably would mean a different set of bullpen roles. 

Why do we think Norris' return is imminent?

Exactly. 17 walks in 28 innings. He's hardly knocking at the door.

There is a common theme to the travails of Norris and Pompey.  In both cases, it was pretty clear (to me at least) that the decision to give them a job out of spring training was discretionary.  Neither had such a record of performance in the high minors the the club had to make a spot for them, but both had obvious talent and had performed well in the high minors for about 1/2 a season.  The club gave them jobs out of spring training and both were performing at a level that was below average but tolerable and totally typical for a rookie. They are sent down and struggle more than they had previously.

I am not a fan of this pattern of development with the best talents in the organization.  If you are not sure whether the prospect is ready, leave him down at the start of the season and make sure that you have another option for the slot (starting pitcher and centerfielder in this case).  If it is your judgment that he is ready, give him a fair chance and don't bail at the first sign of trouble. 

In (mild) fairness, the team had Pillar and Saunders as the backup CF available in the event Pompey struggled.  Unfortunately, Saunders got hurt and Pillar still can't hit (or at least, still hasn't hit yet).  That said, when the contingency plans are Colabello/Valencia/Carrera...yeah, maybe another contingency plan would have been good.

Have to think they must be optimistic on Bautista, otherwise it's getting to the point that it's surprising they haven't investigated a plan from outside the organization.

Norris was sent down because not every starter can go only 3 innings, he was trending down, his mechanics were getting inconsistent, and had options. He was a natural choice to bump.

"....It might indeed be that the best thing would be to move Osuna into the rotation and have Dickey in the pen...."

Bold and unconventional, but I like it.  Worth considering, although it will probably not happen.

It's unfashionable these days, but I'll stick up for Pillar. Last week he contracted a nasty case of swingateverythingitis (often brought on by a few days of bad hit luck) and started taking godawful at-bat after godawful at-bat. He probably could have used a few days' mental vacation at some point, where someone could shake him and say Kevin! Unlucky BABIP bounces do not entitle you to a free hit on the first pitch next time! That isn't how it works! Not even close! Unfortunately, due to the lack of competent outfielders he basically has to play everyday, and he's been frantically chasing his losses. Well, at least it keeps his strikeout rate down. I think he's had his epiphany and the worm has finally turned. He actually got ahead in the count a few times yesterday and even drew a walk. Wish he'd change his at-bat song, though. "Before my time is up..." is not what I want him thinking at the plate. See also: Pompey demoted after 91 PA.

Definitely Estrada's most impressive start so far. He really has been unlucky, though at least he can be thankful none of those comebackers yesterday beheaded him. Small mercies. One thing I haven't seen mentioned about him is his consistently high HR/FB%, which is unusual for a flyball pitcher and suggests that he serves up lots of meatballs (which matches my subjective impression). Didn't serve up too many of those yesterday, at least. Also nice to see he didn't walk anyone. Can he get his BB% down to where it was in the National League?

To be clear, I didn't mean to let anyone off any hooks for the questionable OF depth - just the DH surplus. Encarnacion, Bautista, and Colabello really should be playing virtually everyday, but due to Bautista's shoulder injury, either somebody sits or Colabello goes off on a wild outfield adventure. Hey, who's to say he can't improve someday? He was flawless in LF yesterday. I'm not holding my breath, but speed plays up if you know what you're doing, and as it is he's got zero experience out there. Maybe given some reps over the offseason or spring training he'd become a flyball-literate, passable OF. It'd be a miracle if it happened overnight. But who knows? As for Pompey, I mean, you know, whatever. No flex zone. Someday they'll know better. (Or what Mike said.)

On the subject of OF depth, the Orioles DFA'd 31-year-old Alejandro De Aza, a lefty line-drive machine who's hitting .214/.277/.359 and has struck out 30% of the time. I have always been a fan of his and would vigorously kick the tires there.

"....How quickly the world turns.  Narratives are like buses, apparently - there will be another one along any minute...."

Fair point, but a lot has changed since the earlier concern about the rotation.  The rotation has dramatically improved. That's the objective reality of the numbers.  Dickey seems to be the weak link.  He's over the age of 40.   There are good pitchers available in Buffalo, even if we can argue about how good they are.  Seems reasonable to debate whether a Buffalo pitcher (or Osuna) might do better than Dickey every five days.

I'd posit that the rotation was never as bad as the numbers originally showed, but it's a fair discussion to be having.  I'm a bit leery of pulling the plug on Dickey when he's K'ing 2 batters less per 9 (more than actually) than last year, and LOB'ing 10% worse than his career average, and giving up HR at 5% higher than career average.  Any of those numbers normalizing would make the ERA look a lot better.  10 starts seems a bit quick to me to pull the plug on a guy who has thrown 440 (generally) quality innings over the last 2 years. 

De Aza makes lots of sense to me too.  Can play CF as well, which is a plus.

A few weeks ago people were complaining that the rotation is bad. Now people want to replace the worst starting pitcher (performance-wise). It's really not a huge difference.

Last week he [Pillar] contracted a nasty case of swingateverythingitis

Last week? Or at birth? I think his default position is to swing, baby, swing. It seems that he has to work very hard to exercise an appropriate level of plate discipline, and that maybe he's not always able to do so. We all tend to lapse into our worst habits, no matter what they are. And then pressing only gets your spiraling. I see him as a 4th outfielder on a good team. Maybe a platooner (though he doesn't crush LHP: career L/R 659/576), a defensive caddy, pinch-runner and a hole-plugger when rest or injuries require that he play. I don't buy "Kevin Pillar, fulltime MLB outfielder".

Encarnacion, Bautista, and Colabello really should be playing virtually everyday... Hey, who's to say he [Colabello] can't improve someday? He was flawless in LF yesterday.

Colabello has certainly earned the right to many more at-bats, but I think a fair question is: who the hell exactly is he as a hitter? In his two previous seasons, he logged a collection of 400 pretty crappy PAs but with some potential caveats. He had a solid 100-PA April/14 after which he was allegedly playing hurt and did poorly. And, healthy again, he's closing in on 100 PAs for the Jays with a ridiculous 1018 OPS.

He is 31 and his career line is 246/313/404. Obviously that's not going to play at 1B/DH/LF/RF. But if he's not really that 717 OPS guy, just where on the continuum between 717 and 1018 does he truly lie? If he's really an 800/850 guy, then that might work at 1B/DH, but no so much in an outfield corner given his defensive deficiencies. And if we perceive him to be legitimately more than an 850 guy, well, that just feels greedy and unrealistic. Hell, Bautista and EE -- albeit, in down years -- are at 843 and 769.

Colabello has certainly forced his way into the picture and until the team figures out exactly what he is (700-OPSer having a fluke run or late career real-deal bloomer), he's going to get at-bats. I'd be much more comfortable if those did not come in the outfield. Yes, some reps could make him better out there. But they won't make him younger or faster or give him the instincts that a lifetime of experience would have. I guess it's all on Bautista returning to health to give Colabello a new defensive home.

Re: Chuck

According to Stephen Vogt BBRef's page, Vogt had played mostly LF and some 1B and C in his first minor league season. Gradually he had played more 1B and C and eventually he was a AAA catcher. Could Colabello practise some catching if he ever to play again in Buffalo ?

Could Colabello practise some catching if he ever to play again in Buffalo ?

Vogt was drafted as a catcher as a 22-year old University student. He was not turned into a catcher, especially as a big, lumbering, unathletic 31-year old.

Your fascination with moving players to more challenging defensive positions is endless, but I simply don't get it. It is unrealistic for Colabello to be a 3B, or a 2B or a catcher. He is not even able to pose as a competent LF or RF and you seem to think he might have the tools for far more demanding defensive work? Major leaguers, especially old ones, almost never move to more demanding defensive positions, especially positions they have never played before.

Pillar is definitely one of the most free-swinging players anywhere - 3.4 P/PA two years running - which isn't inherently a bad thing, but there's a difference between aggression and indiscriminate, hopeful hacking. I get the sense he's inching toward the correct side. (By "last week" I had the Houston series in mind. "Week" means "homestand or road trip," I guess.) It's not like he's my irrational favorite OF here or anything (that'd be Carrera), and for sure his fielding is overrated (our defense metrics are largely a function of opportunity and Pillar is exhibit A). It's just a bit much when people with a principled distaste for scrappy hustley Grandma-approved guys start dancing on his grave. You don't see much of that around here. Just in general.

Colabello. Maybe .240/.320/.460 the rest of the way? That's based on nothing substantive whatsoever and I reserve the right to submit a different guess in a week. Obviously a bit higher if he never faces RHP and a bit lower if he has to play outfield. There's a chance Colabello's true talent OPS proves to be below 700 once pitchers experiment with the "bounce everything" strategy. We all know what Juan Francisco's stats looked like on June 1, 2014. Two months later he was carrying a white flag to the plate. Colabello's OSwing rate this year is pushing 38% (Francisco's career mark is 38.3%), though it was in the high 20s in Minnesota. Given that Colabello's trade value is probably zero, you might as well ride it out and see what you've got. His unusual road back to the majors is cause for optimism, I think. It's not like there's a mountain of evidence that says he can't adjust.

Why can't they just play Smoak at short, anyway?

I don't know what to make of Pillar offensively.  He hit everywhere, although he was old for his league.  He's been bad at the start of this season (actually quite a bit worse than Pompey when you take a close look at the statistics), but I don't think that is representative- about to the same degree that Colabello's performance is not representative the other way.  ZIPS and Steamer both have Pillar at almost exactly the same line for the rest of the year- .260/.290/.380- and that is probably fair. He's not going to succeed if he hits as few line drives and as many pop-ups as he has been hitting this year- if you ask me, the competition for playing time between Pillar and Pompey affected both negatively, in Pillar's case making him a bit jumpy.  In a lot of ways, it would have been better if Saunders' rehab was taken slower and it was made clear to both Pillar and Pompey that they had jobs for a longer period.

Will Pillar's line play in the outfield as a full-timer?  Given his defensive and baserunning abilities, it would be OK but not ideal.  It would be ideal to place him as a well-used 4th outfielder with Saunders, Pompey and Bautista.  That was, I think, the plan at the outset of spring training. 

Why can't they just play Smoak at short, anyway?

You go to turn the doubleplay and Smoak gets in your eyes.

What happens when Bautista returns to RF? Is the emphasis put on defense (Carerra in LF, Smoak/Colabello/EE at 1B/DH) or offense (Colabello in LF, Smoak/EE at 1B/DH)?

And what of poor old forgotten Navarro? He'll return as backup catcher and get about as much playing time as Thole gets. And if Gibbons has bigger plans for Navarro, how on earth will he squeeze yet another DH into the mix?

in all likelihood Cola's babip regression will take him out of the picture.

on that note, Smoak is still posting a non-fluky 121wrc+, even though he's been forced to chill on the bench. guy's been real good.

Perhaps Smoak's been little lucky: .342 babip this season with a career .262 points to that.  Also slugging to a 21.4% HR/FB, almost double the career 12.1%.

At the micro level, his first home run was at home, on a line, the other way, right off the top of the wall.  A double more often than not.  Second dinger was in Tampa, the other way, in the air, 2 rows back. Third long ball was pulled into the bullpen at home.  Reduce two of them into a double (or long single) and a fly out, on small sample size, and his wrc+ takes likely takes quite the hit to a lower, but still good 110-ish.

Another good start for Estrada.  Would have been only 1 run in 7 innings (and maybe a win), except for the routine fly that Carrera lost in the sun.

Gregg Zaun criticized Carerra for pulling a Moises Sierra yesterday by wearing Oakley sunglasses instead of the flipdowns. Of course, the sun hid nicely behind the clouds for J.B. Shuck in right field moments later.

Was it just me or was there also a communication issue between Carrera and Goins on the play?  I thought that Goins could have made the play but backed off  to avoid a collision because Carrera kept on coming. 

Carrera has spent most of his career as a CF, and his hitting record suggests that he was always a defence-first player, a typical 4th OF who is better with the glove than the bat.   Yet this season I haven't seen much praise of his defensive performance, and he obviously looked bad yesterday.

For those who have seen Carrera in person, or have followed his games more closely than me in Buffalo or Toronto this season:  how does his defence look?  Does he deserve a role on the team if he can out-hit Pillar, or is he far behind Pillar's defensive abilities?

Carrera has out OPS+'d Pillar for their careers 83 to 68, for what little that is worth. But both BBRef and FG see Pillar as a plus-defender and Carrera not.

Subjectively, Carrera has not looked good, possibly because he is uncomfortable in the outfield corners and possibly because he has an undeserved reputation as good defender. He's small, he's fast, he can't hit. He must be a good defender, right? I assumed as much when he came up. I'm quite sure I was wrong.

"....possibly because he has an undeserved reputation as good defender..."

It's indeed possible, but the mystery is why he has spent most of his career in CF, rather than the corner spots.  Managers aren't sentimental, and they don't base their lineup decisions on reputation.  (Well, most of the time anyway.)  If he is NOT a good defensive outfielder, why did every manager keep putting him in CF for so many seasons?  Or did his defence suddenly deteriorate this year?

Intricated - remember that smoak has spent his whole career in a home park that absolutely destroys power to LF. his career home away splits show it. A boost in power was expected coming to the skydome.

in the field, carrera reminds exactly of eajai. pretty ugly out there but the range makes up for a lot of it.

Rajai Davis is another one of these fast guys who you think should be a good defender so you automatically jump to believing that he probably is. When he got to Toronto I was shocked at how poor a defender he actually was. Reminded me of Lonnie Smith. All that speed and so ineffectually exploited.

Yes, but that's a statement of expected production improvements for Smoak, not objectively reviewing what he has done in 30% into his first season calling the friendly confines of Rogers Centre as home.

About 42% of Smoak's career PAs have been at Safeco, where he has been hurt by a babip of .238 to hit a measly .205.  Overall, it's .262 babip and .225 avg, so roughly weighted, all other parks, it's .290 babip and .250.  At Rogers Centre, including this year, a curiously similar to Sleepless-in-Seattle .237 babip and .190 avg.

According to ESPN Home Run Tracker, Smoak's first home run was "Just Enough", and would have went out of 18 of 30 parks.  "Plenty" for the next two, with the second 24 of 30, but the latest one at 11 of 30 (perhaps due to the large wind assist).  For what it's worth, all 3 landing spots are beyond the Safeco Field overlay line, even the two to left field.

Smoak's actually hitting less fly balls this year, but has significantly improved his line drive rate.  That likely has more to do with the higher babip than Da Dome.  How sustainable is it though?  If it regresses, it's safe to say he's not a .342 babip player regardless of park.  I do agree that even at lower fly ball rates, Smoak is (and will continue to) hit 4-baggers in T.O. at or better #s than his pre-Jays time.

hmm. all good points.

on my phone right now so hard to research but from a quick look his #s look sustainable vRHP at least (114wrc+ on .304babip not so much higher than his career .283babip on the road).

With an off day it is fun to look at Jay stats...

• Only 2 of the 9 regulars listed in BR have OPS+ sub 100, Goins & Pillar
• Goins has outhit Reyes this year 75 to 70 OPS+, go figure.
• Colabello has the best OPS at 1.018
  
• Weakness in rotation is Dickey/Hutchison/Buehrle all sub 80 for ERA+.  Sanchez & Norris both over 100 as is Estrada but all are just barely over.
• Osuan & Cecil the only relievers with 100+ - Delabar also but in just 7 2/3 IP.
  

Anthony Gose has a BABIP of .465, and is hitting .338. Is this just good luck, or is his speed a factor?

He's also leading the league in caught stealing with 5, and has more doubles (10) than walks (9).

I don't know what to make of Pillar offensively.

I was always far less optimistic about Pillar as a hitter than you - to put it mildly - but I think he's actually made a little bit of progress with the bat. He's putting more balls in play - not as many as he did in the minors, naturally, but more than in his previous major league tours, But he's having a hard time getting any hits from his balls in play (BABiP just .257). In the minors, he struck out 1 time per 8 PAs; in the majors that had been 1 in 4; this year it's been 1 in 6. Baby steps...

Gose's BB rate (5.9%) is too low and his K rate is still high (26.3%). Nevertheless, he's off to a strong start. His 2015 fWAR (1.2) is almost the same as Travis's (1.4) in roughly the same number of PA.

One intelligent thing the Tigers have done is platoon him very strictly (having Rajai on the roster probably makes this easier to do). Here are his splits for the last few years:

2013: 153 PA (42 against LHP)
2014: 274 PA (56 against LHP)
2015: 152 PA (17 against LHP)

I still don't think Gose is a good hitter, but over time he might prove to be a flawed-but-adequate hitter who offers speed (with some baserunning deficiencies) and good defense at a premium position. His baserunning may improve over time. Given his age, salary and controllability, he's a useful player who carries very little risk for the Tigers.

That said, I prefer Travis over Gose. I think this was a good trade for the Jays.

I was always far less optimistic about Pillar as a hitter than you - to put it mildly - but I think he's actually made a little bit of progress with the bat. He's putting more balls in play - not as many as he did in the minors, naturally, but more than in his previous major league tours, But he's having a hard time getting any hits from his balls in play (BABiP just .257). In the minors, he struck out 1 time per 8 PAs; in the majors that had been 1 in 4; this year it's been 1 in 6. Baby steps...

When you pop up as often as Pillar has this year, your BABIP will suffer. Plus his HR/FB rate is way down.   More contact, less hard contact.  It's not necessarily a good trade-off. 

I think he's been hacking early in the count a lot throughout the second half of May, though there aren't any publicly available metrics to back me up on that. If true, that would depress his K rate and murder his BABIP, since he's never getting ahead and he's making contact on more bad balls. It wouldn't be progress.

"Anthony Gose has a BABIP of .465, and is hitting .338. Is this just good luck, or is his speed a factor?"

speed helps, but a .465babip is 1000000% unsustainable.

Kevin Pillar could really use a nice long session of tee work where he does nothing but hammer balls that are down and away. Does Inside Edge show a heat map for batters? I'm curious to see Pillar's, because it feels like he rolls over every fastball on the outer half with a weak grounder.

When Bautista and Encarnacion are at their best they drive the ball hard the other way, and obviously Donaldson has shown that ability as well. Emulate, Kevin.

I think that it's a pitch recognition issue, with overall jumpiness playing a role.  Pillar showed the ability to take the pitch down and away to right field right from his arrival, and pitchers tied him up inside.  He made an adjustment and turned on some balls late last year and in the first month of this year.  Pitchers respond by throwing pitches down and away and he doesn't lay off. I think that Rance Mulliniks would make a great mentor for him.

Bo Schultz up and Scott Copeland down.

Schultz is an interesting guy - undrafted & spent time in independent ball... but throws high 90s. Had a great spring (8 IP, 1 hit + 2 walks allowed) and has been pitching well as Buffalo's closer. Time to give him a chance and see if we can ride a hot bullpen arm for a while...

To get an idea of how crazy a 465 BABIP is - Ted Williams the year he hit 406 had a 431 BABIP.  Does anything think Gose can have a better BABIP than Teddy Ballgame did in his peak?

Scott Who? I had forgotten he was even on the roster. I understand that they were looking for backup innings while the rotation was in the midst of stabilizing itself, but it's crazy that he was up for 10 days and didn't get into a game. Hopefully Gibby trusts Schultz a bit more and AA has provided more ammo for the manager.

Scott Redmond has cleared waivers and is off to Buffalo.

Devon Travis is also off to Buffalo on a rehab assignment. He is DH'ing tonight.

Gerry or any other minor league watchers, how long do players have to wait after being demoted before they can rejoin the AAA team? Does it depend on options or 40 man roster-slots?

Agreed that Schultz is an interesting arm and story - I love the longshot guys who make it. Hopefully we have the reliever version of Collabello on our hands.

Off we're gonna shuffle,
Shuffle off to Buffalo.

Bert and Annie were more presumably more enthused by the prospect.

Gose's swing does look a bit "tighter" this year (it always looked crazy long to me before) which should help with at least making contact.  With his legs, making more contact even at the expense of power would help his OBP, since he'll beat out more infield hits than most (and will stretch more singles, doubles, etc). 

But I still feel that Gose settles in as a 4th OF, with the odd season where he looks like a starter.  My hope for Travis is that he can do better than that.  It'll be interesting to see how he comes back after 2 weeks off and after dealing with the injury, in addition to the league now having a bit of a book on him.

Detroit's a pretty favorable park for Gose, too. Big, inviting power alleys that beckon to him the way Arizona's do to A.J. Pollock, and a shortish porch in right for those special occasions when he gets around on one. And a huge centerfield where his wheels and arm strength come in handy.

A player on options can be demoted to AAA and play the next day. Several players have done that this year including Dalton Pompey. Players who have to wait on waivers take a long time, ten days I believe. Then there are DFA players where the wait is less, maybe 48 hours.

It is complicated.

Interesting, Alex.  Gose's splits (SSS alert) have been pretty extreme this year.  He's got an otherworldly .492 BABIP at home, and an impressive but earthbound .395 on the road.  His slash line on the road would fit into Anthony Gose's career; his slash line at home would fit into Ty Cobb's.