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It's Blue Jays Week at Baseball America. Not only is the publication about to release its Top Ten Prospects in the Jays' farm system, but this week's issue includes a detailed article about JP Ricciardi, with a specific focus on the restructuring of the farm system.

I would encourage you to pick up the current issue at the newsstands, on sale till Dec. 22, and read the JP piece. It's not the easiest paper to find here in the frozen north, but a good local newsstand should have a copy. I usually find BA at (of all places) the Relay outlet at the Ottawa Airport, as well as at a marvellous periodicals store here in town called (I kid you not) Mags & Fags (they also sell cigarettes, you see). I'm not sure whether the Top Ten list is in the print edition, but it is available online. A year's subscription to the Net version is US$42, about half what you'd pay for the print edition for a lot of the same material.



I don't intend to reproduce the articles here -- not only would that be unethical, it would also be a nice breach of my online subscription agreement -- but I will provide some excerpts for discussion purposes. It was written by the Globe and Mail's Jeff Blair, and it's quite interesting.

Ricciardi has been brutally honest in discussing the financial concerns that plague the organization. He also says, candidly and without complaint, that he believes the Blue Jays’ payroll will be between $45 million and $55 million for the life of his five-year contract. And he is just as frank in discussing the reason for watching money in player development and scouting. "We’re revamping our system, and we aren’t going to have as many people," Ricciardi says. .....

Some of the organization’s crosscheckers reportedly made $80,000 a year, and some area scouts were earning $60,000 – more than twice what some other teams paid. The Blue Jays had seven full- or part-time Canadian scouts, yet they seldom signed the country’s best players. All are gone.

...

"I don’t believe the return on a high school player is as great as the return on a college player," Ricciardi says. "The previous administration’s approach was often to go after the best available athlete. That’s fine, but it also means that you miss out on ballplayers like Mark Ellis or David Eckstein. I’m not here to say there’s a right or wrong way. It’s just that I’m more inclined toward college players. I mean, Josh Phelps is a great player, but it took him six years to get here. People lose jobs in six years.

"We can’t be a hit-or-miss team any more. We need to manage our risks. We won’t be in the Asian market and we won’t be big players in the free-agent market. And we’re going to be very selective in Latin America. Besides, the days are gone where you’d sign 10 players out of there for $3,000."


As for the Top Ten prospects, they've already released the list itself, which I'll reproduce here for your reading interest. For the detailed analyses, however, you'll have to purchase a subscription.

1. Dustin McGowan, rhp
2. Jayson Werth, of/c
3. Kevin Cash, c
4. Francisco Rosario, rhp
5. Brandon League, rhp
6. Alexis Rios, of
7. Russ Adams, ss/2b
8. Vinny Chulk, rhp
9. Gabe Gross, of
10. Guillermo Quiroz, c

Now, BA is a very scout-driven publication, so the players they like best aren't necessarily the players sabrmetricians like, not to mention a certain Mr. Ricciardi. Certainly, I would never rank Russ Adams below Alexis Rios, nor would I have Gabe Gross so low on the list even after his struggles, nor would I have Guillermo Quiroz anywhere on the list. Even though they're quite raw, I would still have included David Bush and perhaps Justin Maureau among the Top Ten. I'm also not sure what effect his Tommy John surgery will have on Francisco Rosario's prospects.

But there you have it: JP has spoken about the farm system and one set of experts has weighed in as well. What do you think?
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Dave Till - Thursday, December 05 2002 @ 01:54 PM EST (#101749) #
Kevin Goldstein's Prospect Report (http://www.theprospectreport.com) lists the Jays' top 10 prospects as:

1 - Dustin McGowan, P (Charleston)
2 - Kevin Cash, C (Syracuse)
3 - Francisco Rosario, P (Dunedin)
4 - Alexis Rios, OF (Dunedin)
5 - Jayson Werth, OF/C (Syracuse)
6 - Russ Adams, SS (Dunedin)
7 - David Bush, P (Dunedin)
8 - Gabe Gross, OF (Tennessee)
9 - Brandon League, P (Auburn)
10 - Vinny Chulk, P (Syracuse)

Nine of the ten people on the BA list are on this one (Bush and Quiroz are the only prospects appearing on only one list).

I'm surprised that Goldstein ranks Werth so low - he looked good in his September callup. Mind you, DeWayne Wise looks like a ballplayer, so you can't go by appearances. :-)
_Jordan - Thursday, December 05 2002 @ 02:53 PM EST (#101750) #
I'm a little surprised at the props given to Dustin McGowan, to be honest with you. For a guy who's never thrown an inning at AA and has spent three years in A Ball (high school pitchers....), he's getting a whole lot of respect. Here's his professional line:

Charleston 2002
11-10, 4.19, 148 IP, 143 H, 59 BB, 163 K
Auburn 2001
3-6, 3.76, 67 IP, 57 H, 49 BB, 80 K
Medicine Hat 2000
0-3, 6.48, 25 IP, 26 H, 25 BB, 19 K

Now, no question he's improving as he goes up the A-Ball ladder, but as PJ O'Rourke would say, he's starting from a Paleolithic baseline. He got his hits down below innings pitched for the first time and improved his control dramatically, but there's still a ways to go. He's got a mid-90s fastball and breaking stuff that Sickels calls "potentially dominant," and there's certainly reason for optimism here. But my sense is that these #1 rankings are based on potential rather than performance.

To be fair, the Jays are short on pitchers with truly exciting stuff, the ones with K/IP rates greater than one (though Auburnites David Bush and Justin Maureau both met that standard in their rookie seasons). I like great stuff, don't get me wrong, but I don't get too excited till I see that stuff get polished a little against tougher competition. McGowan will be 22 in spring training, so I presume the Blue Jays will be sending him to New Haven and expecting him to pick up the pace a little.
Craig B - Thursday, December 05 2002 @ 05:46 PM EST (#101751) #
Jordan, I take a slightly different view, although I agree that #1 in the system is praise too high for McGowan. I tend to look at a young prospect's ability to move up levels and improve; a player who can do both of those at the same time is showing real progression and can be expected to continue to do well. Guys who take two years to go through a level (I do consider Rookie, Low A, and High A to be three different levels) need to show more dominance.

Going from 1-1 to 2-1 to 3-1 in K/W ratio is superb improvement for McGowan, particularly considering his K/9 figure of around 10 last year.

If he improves his performance again in the Eastern League, I will feel comfortable anointing him #1 in the system
_Jordan - Friday, December 06 2002 @ 09:47 AM EST (#101752) #
Fair enough, Craig. Top ten lists are difficult to order, if only because the criteria are often undefined. Are they listed in order of readiness to contribute to the big club? Overall potential ceiling? Coolness of name? (If the latter, then the Jays should never have released Garrick Haltiwanger from AA this season).

I don't mean to be too harsh on McGowan. His potential is huge and his progress has indeed been substantial; I just worry about a guy who's repeating A ball for the third time (though he has been moving up the A-ladder). I suppose I'm a little gun-shy with Blue Jays pitching prospects these days. New Haven will tell much of the tale next season.
Coach - Friday, December 06 2002 @ 01:38 PM EST (#101753) #
McGowan took an enormous stride last year, but League is a kid whose "potential" I always consider in evaluating his performance. He couldn't have been facing the same competition in Hawaii as other young pros did growing up in Florida or California or any number of more established baseball regions -- it's the same hurdle the best Canadian kids must overcome. Pitchers can be late bloomers for many other reasons, so J.P.'s risk-management approach is pragmatic.

Of the fine 2002 draft class, Maureau looks like the most pleasant early surprise, and I think both New Haven and Dunedin fans will witness some exceptional pitching talent for the next several years. Who makes it to the Show is a matter of attrition and good fortune, not just talent. The deeper the system, the more likely it is to produce big-leaguers, but projecting individual hitters remains an inexact science and projecting pitchers is almost a lottery.

I agree with Craig that performance at each new level is a strong indicator; it's why I was so keen on Jason Arnold in the reported three-way trade that would have followed the Walker-Williams deal. He moved from A to AA without missing a beat, which suggests he might be special.
Coach - Friday, December 06 2002 @ 06:39 PM EST (#101754) #
From the BA chat with John Manuel, who compiled the Top 30, about the Jays' 2002 draft:

These weren't just solid, safe picks. Adams has athleticism, instincts and plate discipline. He wasn't just a safe, OBP pick, he was also a tools pick. Bush is the same, not your average safe senior guy, but a guy with serious upside. Same with Wichita State's Adam Peterson. Chad Pleiness could be a stud. 34th round pick Justin Owens has an intriguing swing, and 6th-rounder Jason Perry could be a 30-HR LH hitting 1B or LF. They could get 6-8 big leaguers out of this draft; I'm sure I didn't mention some very good prospects. That's what makes this a potentially very good draft. That draft vs. Scott Kazmir is an interesting philosophical question, but I'll take the one with 6-8 big leaguers.

Same source on certain lefties not on the 40-man roster:

(Gustavo) Chacin's stuff is fringy at best, same with Wiggins, though Wiggins had more success this year. I don't see Chacin getting much of a look, he's a lefty without much of a breaking ball, bad combo. Wiggins isn't great either; that Mondesi trade was a 100% salary dump.

Of interest to fantasy owners in deep AL leagues:

I think Jayson Werth will always play some C; Eli Marrero is the model for him, and like Marrero he'll play some CF. Werth will have an outside shot at getting some PT in RF for the Jays in 2003 but again, they see him as a 400 ABs guy playing a lot of positions. Otherwise, we would have ranked him No. 1.

I'll be a very happy camper with Phelps and Werth at C in my AL league, if they qualify by playing 5 games there. So I'm keeping Josh at DH and will draft Jayson in the end game and cross my fingers. If both youngsters give Huckaby an occasional rest behind the plate, Tom Wilson becomes odd man out, which means there's room for a slugger on the bench -- an occasional 1B/OF with a bit more pop.
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