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Off to Texas after a series win over the A's, the Jays and Roy Halladay face the Rangers and Pedro Astacio. This game is on TSN at 8:05pm, which is good, because I don't get TSN and I really need to study.

Astacio's only claims to fame are really claims to infamy: he led the league in 1998, 1999, and 2002 in home runs allowed; 1998 and 2002 in hit batsmen; and 1998 in earned runs allowed.

His last effective year was in 2001, when he had an overall ERA+ of 100; the Astros got one Scott Elarton's worth (28.2 innings) of 144 ERA+ ball out of him that year, but since then it's been ERA+ of 82, 58, and finally 47 in limited innings this year. His last outing, against Seattle, was good: 7 IP, 7 K, 0 BB.

Will the Dude tee off against him? Only time will tell!

Game 10: To Arlington | 173 comments | Create New Account
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Craig B - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#111564) #
Ladies and gentlefrogs, tonight's lineups, presented by Bret Barberie's Chili Juice Surprise...

Cat LF
O-Dog 2B
V-Dub CF
Koskie 3B
Hilly DH
Dude 1B
Lexi RF
GGZ C
McDonald SS

Soriano 2B
Blalock 3B
Young SS
Teixeira 1B
Hidalgo RF
Gonzalez DH
Dellucci LF
Barajas C
Matthews CF
Mylegacy - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#111568) #
Shouldn't it be Ladybugs and Gentlefrogs?
King Ryan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#111569) #
Soriano has a career OPS of .550 in 45 PA's against Halladay. No one else has faced him a significant amount of times (although Blalock and Young have hit him well in 15/16 PA's respectively.)

No one on the Jays have faced Astacio more than a couple times.
Gitz - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#111572) #
To be fair to Pedro, some of those ignominious numbers were compiled in Coors Field. I hear that's a pretty good hitter's park.

No Mench, but two fourth outfielders are starting in front of him. Thank goodness I didn't draft him on my fantasy team.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#111574) #
Me, March 20th: "Mench and Hidalgo project fairly similarly, both having hit for average (but only sporadically) and considerable power (same) in the past. As Hidalgo is the 'name,' he’ll be drafted well before Mench. I think an intrepid owner could pass on Hidalgo, draft Mench several round later, and get essentially the same production."

So far, so bad. Although, to my semi-credit I also said: "I think he’ll miss another 20-30 games with injury and/or some dubiously conceived semi-platooning by management."
westcoast dude - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#111578) #
I'm happy to see John McDonald starting tonight, and Koskie back in the lineup. If I could make a suggestion to the bullpen coach, it would be: go to Pete Walker first. In fact, make that your mantra, Sir.
Great to see Dude is #2 in RBIs in MLB. Yes, I would say he has replaced--displaced--the Other One quite admirably.
What if Josh keeps his ERA in the low 2's and wins 20 games and the Cy? Then what?
Gitz - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#111579) #
Ok, so sue me. I'm violating the posting rules.

But if Jays fans in 2004 were grumbling about seeing "Berg, LF" in the lineup, they should remember it can always, always be worse. How much worse? Try "Sanchez, CF" in the three-hole. Yes, that's Alex Sanchez, hitting third for your Tampa Bay Devil Rays tonight against the Orioles.

We now return you to the game that hasn't started yet.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#111583) #
See, Pinella DOES have a sense of humour.

Tike Redman also has batted third for the Bucs in two games.

Anyhoo, I was glad that Texas retained both Dellucci and Matthews, as they're fine 4th and 5th outfielders. I just didn't think they'd end up being the 2nd and 3rd outfielders.

Dellucci's intro music is the theme from 'The Godfather,' which is pretty cool.
Gitz - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#111586) #
Once again, we have the Texas feed on MLB.tv (and, I presume, on Extra Innings). I refuse to believe that Mark Teixeira is as good defensively as their announcers make him out to be.
Nolan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#111590) #
I think this has been mentioned a couple times already this season, but Cat is looking great on the basepaths. He seems not at all concerned with being careful with his legs...and that, to me, is a good sign.
Elijah - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#111592) #
Based on Koskie's second and third strikes, Chris Guccione looks like he has a fairly wide strikezone. We'll see how this develops as the game goes along.
VBF - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#111593) #
Oh man, that was a nasty strikout pitch by Doc on Young. If the first innings any indication of the game, Doc will be Doc.
King Rat - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#111594) #
I don't put much stock in the doom laden stats they keep repeating about Doc in Texas, but it's nevertheless relieving to see him look that sharp against the first three batters.
Grimlock - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#111595) #
Anyone been to The Ballpark at Arlington? They have innings where if the Rangers score, everyone gets a coupon for a free taco from one of the big taco chains. When me Grimlock was there, they lit up Oakland for four runs! Plus, everyone sings "Deep In the Heart of Texas" in like the fifth inning. It was also insanely hot, even at night, but that's probably not a problem tonight.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#111597) #
I refuse to believe that Mark Teixeira is as good defensively as their announcers make him out to be.

Evidently, he's good enough to record an out with his foot off the bag.
Nolan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#111598) #
Wow, Texiera's foot was a good 10 to 12 inches off the bag when he caught the ball. Shea should have been safe. Props to the Texas announcers who weren't afraid to question the ump's decision.
Gitz - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#111599) #
Well, that was your basic botched call, as Hillenbrand was clearly safe. Call it karma for trying to pull a curve ball six inches off the plate and six inches from the ground.

HLH looks good, and it doesn't hurt that the Rangers are intent on being hacktastic.
King Rat - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#111600) #
Teixeira was way off the bag on that one. Given how close it was regardless of the offline throw, I can't understand why the ump called him out.

And Hinske gets a hit, which is simultaneously mollyfying and aggravating. It's nice in and of itself of course, but I can't help thinking that Shea should be at second.
King Rat - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#111602) #
Man, Astacio's curve is good tonight-that's three Jays he's frozen with it for strike three in two innings.
Craig S. - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#111604) #
Six pitches - great inning for Halladay.
fozzy - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#111605) #
Doc looks really sharp tonight; only 17 pitches through two innings
CeeBee - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#111606) #
With Guccione's strike zone tonight it should be a pitchers game unless the hitters really start hacking. 17 pitches for Doc in 2 innings. If he can keep it going maybe the bullpen will get a night off.
King Rat - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#111607) #
Could we ban Rod Black from ever using the expression "Bling-bling" again? It just sounds...wrong.
King Ryan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#111609) #
It should be remembered that most of these hitters haven't faced Astacio before. I expect them to clobber the hell out of him the third time through the order. :-)

Okay, I hate to say it, but these Jays commercials are pissing me off. I never see them other than when the Jays are on. I mean that literally; the only time I've ever seen these new Jays ads is during a game, when I see them 2-3 times each break. What's the point in that? So annoying.
Arms Longfellow - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#111610) #
The Man With The Golden Glove one rules, but as for the weird ass puppet one ... YEAH.
Nolan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#111611) #
On the topic of commercials, they just played a Rangers' commercial on MLB.tv and I have to say that the Jays ones are better. The entire idea behind it is that Rangers' fans are very eager to make sure to throw back homerun balls hit by other teams. Although it is fitting....
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#111614) #
Doc's got a bit of the Chacin luck tonight. The Rangers have hit some ropes to the outfield but they've found gloves. But for a couple of mistakes that haven't cost him so far Doc has only thrown 28 pitches through 3 innings and has struck out three.

The Jays seem to be measuring Astacio but can't quite break through against him. He's pitching a pretty sharp ball game himself. I'm impressed with the command he has of his sinker and curve so far.
kpataky - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#111615) #
Sorry for the hijack - but this came across the wire...

Adam Peterson was designated for assignment today by the Diamondbacks.

What does this mean? Essentially, being designated for
assignment allows a club to open up a spot on the 40
man roster while they figure out what to do with a
player. There are certain situations in which a team
needs a player's permission to either trade him or
send him to the minors. So rather than force the
player to make a quick decision, the team can simply
designate him for assignment while he decides.

So in Adam's case, the DBacks needed his roster spot
because they acquired Pitcher Javier Lopez off waivers
from the Rockies and wanted to put him on their 40 man
roster.

Adam was designated for assignment so Arizona must
wait for him to clear waivers (he can now be claimed
by any Major League team for a fee) which can take
four or five days. If he clears waivers, he can be
outrighted to the Minors or become a free agent.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#111616) #
That's a "stock" commercial used by several teams. They just use the local team's announcer over the video.
King Rat - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#111617) #
I don't like this high-home angle they use for some pitches. It's impossible to see where the pitch is. I mean, I can get that view of the pitch at the ballpark-you ought to get the best possible view when you watch on TV.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#111618) #
Doc leaves another pitch up this time to Soriano and this time he doesn't get away with it. Soriano drives it hard off the left field wall.
Dave Till - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#111619) #
By the way, today is Gregg Zaun's birthday and Greg Myers's birthday.

You can tell when Doc is in good form: he needs about 10 pitches an inning, tops. (Mind you, he left a cookie over the plate to Soriano.)
Thomas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#111620) #
I'm trying to follow this on the web, so I was just wondering was Soriano's double catchable (by Cat or even by a good fielding outfielder)?
Dave Till - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#111621) #
I'm trying to follow this on the web, so I was just wondering was Soriano's double catchable (by Cat or even by a good fielding outfielder)? No. He hit the base of the wall on the fly.
Thomas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#111622) #
I guess "off the wall" answers my question basically.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#111623) #
Huge strikeout of Michael Young after Soriano stole third with 1 out. Luckily he chased a couple out of the strike zone after Doc fell behind 3-1 in the count.
CaramonLS - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#111625) #
I thought it was Catchable.

It hit the Bottom of the wall, I think if Cat had about 2 more feet, he could have put a glove on it before it carumed off.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#111626) #
For guy without a lot of power, McDonald swings too early in the count. Jays get a break on that looping double by Zaun but McDonald grounds out and Cat flies out. Still 1-0 and Astacio is really putting the pressure on Doc to continue pitching a shutout in a park that has given him all kinds of grief in the past.
fozzy - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#111627) #
as much as I dislike Rod Black announcing baseball, he sounded classic when Soriano dropped the ball, almost like it was a walk-off homerun.

On another note, TSN will be broadcasting the Jays/Yankees games next Wednesday/Thursday. I, for one, will be buying earplugs to avoid the Derek Jeter fawning lovefest.... ugh.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#111628) #
An excellent outfielder might have caught that Soriano double but he would have ran into the wall hard to do it. There's only so many hard drives to the outfield that you can allow before one of them falls in.

As I say that he's given up another hard hit ball to Adrian Gonzalez who narrowly misses a two run homer and settles for a double. 2nd and 3rd with nobody out for the Rangers now.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#111629) #
I would like to point out that even though Adrian Gonzalez seems like a semi-failed prospect because he's been around so long, he is only 22 years old.
Stellers Jay - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#111630) #
Kevin, designating a player for assignment gives them up to 10 days to make up their mind on what to do with him. It's quite likely that he hasn't been placed on waivers yet (unless you know for a fact otherwise). They could be trying to work out a trade for him, hoping to get something for him before having to put him on waivers. I would be surprised if he clears waivers. I would think somebody would take a shot on an arm like that. Toronto should put in a claim, they still have two spots open on the 40 man roster.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#111632) #
Big time pitching. Back to back strikeouts and can he escape this huge jam unscathed? Not quite.

McDonald gets the grounder up the middle and makes an incredible play but Matthews beats it out for a game tying infield single. He saves the go ahead run from scoring though.
CaramonLS - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#111633) #
McDonald prevented a run there, pretty sure he stopped Gonzalaz from heading home. Great try though.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#111634) #
Doc has pitched his guts out in a park where he has nothing but bad memories. It's time for the Jays to give their ace some support.
fozzy - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#111635) #
Halladay is in the dugout and looks pretty steamed at the first base ump after Matthews was safe last inning. Let's hope it doesn't affect what has been an awesome performance thus far.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#111636) #
Arg...Hudson. He gets ahead 2-0 in the count and instead of taking a strike in a tie game he's swinging at a fastball running away from him and rolling over it for a weak ground out. The Jays have not stayed back on Astacio tonight.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#111637) #
Finally Koskie stays back on Astacio and doesn't chase his crazy movement. First walk of the game for either team.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#111638) #
Nice walk by Shea as well!
Coach - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#111639) #
Hmm, nobody's suggested yet that J.P. should trade Hillenbrand for Peterson. That deal had a lot of critics at the time.

Doc's upset about the safe call at first because it was close enough for Reilly to make up for his earlier blunder. Excellent pitching (and another nifty stop by Sir John) to get out of that jam allowing just one run.

What a superb start to the season. Ten games in, and the Jays have given themselves a great chance to win every one. Sooner or later, Astacio will hang a curve. Now would be nice...

Dave Till - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#111640) #
I'm wondering whether the defenses have started adjusting to Hinske already. Soriano was practically playing in shallow right field on Hinske's ground ball. Eric hit it hard, but right at him.
Elijah - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#111641) #
Hillenbrand draws his first walk after 39 plate appearances. What's the over/under on the O-Dog getting his first walk? That has to be the most surprising stat so far the Jays. I never would've thought it would take until (at least) the 10th game for him to draw a walk. He's up to 43 plate appearances.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#111642) #
Shea tends to be a beast early in the season though the Jays certainly needed someone who was.
Stellers Jay - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#111643) #
If they put in a waiver claim and got Peterson back, Hillenbrand for free would look pretty good.
Dave Till - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#111644) #
How does Doc get everybody to swing at the first pitch like that? It must look hittable.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#111645) #
Well, he's not exactly free...
Matthew E - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#111646) #
Hmm, nobody's suggested yet that J.P. should trade Hillenbrand for Peterson. That deal had a lot of critics at the time. It still does, I'm sure. But none of the criticisms of the deal were based on Peterson's value; they were/are based on whether it was worthwhile to pick up Hillenbrand at all, given his salary and imagined level of production.
uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#111647) #
Did I just see a Hinske shift?
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#111648) #
Doc has a relatively easy 1-2-3 inning for a change. Nailbiter going to the 7th tied at 1.
King Ryan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#111649) #
Is it just me, or is Doc getting a lot more flyouts than usual? Whatever works, but it's a bit weird seeing so many players get under his pitches.

Now's about the time the aforementioned clobbering of Astacio begins, I think.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#111650) #
Do the Jays play hit and run here?
Andrew - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#111651) #
This is off topic, but in Washington, Castilla got plunked first pitch in an at bat where he was a hit away from the cycle.
Coach - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#111652) #
Shea is Koskie insurance, Hinske insurance and a very flippable commodity at the deadline if everyone else remains healthy and productive. He won't be the cornerstone of the next Jays playoff team, but he was a perfect fit for this year's club.

Woo-hoo! Rally time.
Matthew E - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#111653) #
That play must have driven P.Astacio nuts.
VBF - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#111654) #
That was a very poor call on Gregg Zaun for the first strike. A good 3 inches low for it to be considered a strike by regulation.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#111655) #
Let's see if Astacio can escape the same jam Doc was in.
Elijah - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#111656) #
Not exactly a clobbering but the Jays have regained the lead.
uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#111657) #
sweet.

take us home, Doc.

R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#111658) #
Adams chops one just fair up the first base line and he scores the run and moves Zaun over to third with 1 out. They jammed him inside but it was a productive out. Hopefully Cat can be productive as well.
CaramonLS - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#111659) #
I agree VBF, total BS call and I don't think Zaun could beleive it either.

R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#111660) #
How exactly did Cat make contact with that inside fastball? I thought it was going to hit him in the leg.

Ouch...strikes out on that sharp curve from Astacio. That hurts. Now O-Dog has to stay back and not roll over the ball and ground out again.
uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#111661) #
[quote]Shea is Koskie insurance, Hinske insurance and a very flippable commodity at the deadline if everyone else remains healthy and productive. He won't be the cornerstone of the next Jays playoff team, but he was a perfect fit for this year's club.[/quote]

yup.

I could never understand the extreme reaction to a useful and needed addition to the team.

I think it has something to do with Hillenbrand being the extreme anti-moneyball player - he was pretty much demonized as the king of empty stats after that Kim trade.


R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#111662) #
Astacio performs the same trick as Doc. Escapes 2nd and 3rd with 0 out and gives up just one run. That strikeout of Cat was huge.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#111663) #
Crunch time for the Doc. Hidalgo, Gonzalez, and Delucci due up. Gonzalez has powdered a couple of fastballs off Doc tonight, 1 for an out and 1 for a wall banging double.
Tyler - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#111664) #
Was that Tabler who just made the point that Halladay's still in the game because he hasn't thrown many pitches? Come on, Pat, step it up a notch.
Coach - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#111665) #
Credit Astacio for limiting the damage there. Maybe I'll keep him around for a while in the BBFL.

Like most fans, I would have been happier getting Carlos Lee than Hillenbrand this winter, but considering the rumoured cost of that rumoured deal (Hinske, Batista and ???) compared to the loss -- and now possible return for a pittance -- of Peterson, things have worked out just fine.

Doc rocks. The bullpen should be well rested for tomorrow.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#111666) #
Way to go Doc. 1-2-3 inning and he's through 7 innings with a great game going. Just 84 pitches so he should have enough gas left to complete this game if he doesn't run into trouble. He's six out away from exorcising his Arlington Stadium demons and the Jays can snap their 6 or 7 game losing streak to the Rangers.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#111667) #
I think Vernon needs to close up his stance just slightly. He hits balls up in the zone fairly well but he pulls off a lot of pitches that are low and away.
Tyler - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#111668) #
Like most fans, I would have been happier getting Carlos Lee than Hillenbrand this winter, but considering the rumoured cost of that rumoured deal (Hinske, Batista and ???) compared to the loss -- and now possible return for a pittance -- of Peterson, things have worked out just fine.

I think it's a little early to get too worried about the price. If Batista closes all year, and Hinske ends up backsliding some, that deal still might not have looked so bad in terms of getting out from under the Hinske contract and the Batista contract. This team doesn't need a $4.75MM closer right now, particularly not one who's not particularly proven at the task.

Matthew E - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#111669) #
Well, since the deal didn't happen, I'm not worried about it at all.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#111670) #
Barajas, Matthews, and Soriano due up for Doc in the 8th inning.
uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#111671) #
I was scared we'd miss McDonald's glove after that pinch hit.

damn.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#111672) #
I HATE pitchout calls that put the pitcher in the hole in a close game. Now Doc has to pitch to Soriano with a 2-0 count.
Matthew E - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#111673) #
I guess the Rangers were just going to keep hitting ground balls to short until Adams got one right.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#111674) #
Third time's a charm for Russ and he finally fields one cleanly. Bit of a shaky turn by Orlando but Doc's out of the inning!
Elijah - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#111675) #
I want to see Doc start the 9th. 92 pitches.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#111676) #
95 pitches for Doc. If he manages an average 15 pitch inning that would mean a 110 pitch complete game. I'd let him start the inning and have Batista ready.
Coach - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#111677) #
LOL, Matt.

For sure, Doc gets to finish this.
Anders - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#111678) #
I definetly want to see Halladay come back to finish the 9th, whether the Jays score here or not.

Halladay has been brilliant, and Batista is Batista
uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#111679) #
It's all Doc.

Gibbons isn't even thinking of taking him out. His game to win, his game to lose.
CaramonLS - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#111680) #
Yikes did anyone see that Sheff thing in Boston?

Probably going to get a few games for that.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#111682) #
Doc has had to walk a thin line all night. Why not in the 9th as well? The meat of the Rangers lineup coming up with Blalock, Young, and Teixeira.
JayWay - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#111683) #
I love the fact that Sheffield struck the fan before he threw the ball.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#111684) #
And with that scoreless inning, Nick Regilio has lowered his ERA to 20.25.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#111685) #
Hook to Blalock to get him swinging! 1 out.
TorontoDan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#111686) #
That SO pitch to Blalock was just nasty. Amazing that this is the 9th inning.
fozzy - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#111687) #
note to self: Roy Halladay's curveball tonight = $$$
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#111688) #
Sit down Young! One to go!
uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#111689) #
awsesome performance.

2nd Cy coming up!
Coach - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#111690) #
Doc is magnificent, but don't forget Zaun set those hitters up beautifully. Blalock, leaning over to protect against another outside corner fastball, was helpless against the deuce.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#111691) #
Doesn't break out the curve to Teixeira and gives up the opposite field single. Hidalgo up.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#111692) #
Dagnabbit. Lost Hidalgo on five pitches. There's no way you take Doc out now.
CaramonLS - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#111693) #
So I decided to check out who we traded Micheal Young for...:

Texas Rangers traded E______ L_____ to the Toronto Blue Jays for Darwin Cubillan and Mike Young.

*sigh*
Coach - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#111694) #
Anybody else holding their breath? God, I love a good baseball game.
Alex Obal - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#111695) #
What a gutsy performance. Goodbye, Doc's Arlington demons, nice knowing ya.
Matthew E - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#111696) #
Had 'em all the way.
R Billie - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#111697) #
Hinske does a nose dive just to make it exciting and Doc has a brilliant complete game win!
TorontoDan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#111698) #
WHEW. My heart skipped a couple hundred beats there. Fantastic game by Roy.
uglyone - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#111699) #
heh!

just had to make it fun at the end.

GREAT performance from Roy - that's the 2003 Roy...and against a great hitting team as well.

Much needed, too, because this series is gonna be tough.

I have a feeling that the Jays we've seen these last two games is much closer to the team we'll be watching for most of the year....great starting pitching, minimal hitting, and inconsistent bullpen.

Ah well, great start to the series.
King Ryan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#111700) #
Beauty of a game. To top it off, Halladay just completely saved my fantasy team for the week. Woo!

7-3 record, Halladay in top form, Hinske hitting like he's never hit before. Life is good.
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#111701) #
What a great game pitched by both starters. Hell of a game to watch. Credit to Gibbons for leaving Halladay in there after going to 3-1 twice in a row and yielding a single and a walk. Sure is great to win a game when the offense was so stagnant!
VBF - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#111702) #
Forget the "Fightin Jays". I prefer Pat Tabler's "Lunchbox Men".

Great game by Doc. It reminded me of his last start of 2003 versus the Indians.
Lucas - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#111703) #
Well, I'm outnumbered here, but...

BAH!

Result aside, that was a fine baseball game. Hope the other three have this kind of excitement.
Joseph Krengel - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#111704) #
That play must have driven P.Astacio nuts.

You should be in show business. (Truth be told, I was thinking about making the same joke.) Very encouraging start by Halliday. I have a feeling that this is the sort of game we're going to have to get use to this year. Very similar to last year, only the Jays are able to execute enough to win.
Coach - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#111705) #
As you know, Scott, you should focus on the process, not the result. :)

Your team has some serious thunder; ours may be a little better at pitching and defence. We'll be seeing you in the playoffs one of these years.
westcoast dude - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#111706) #
You can't beat a 2-1 ballgame and a 7 and 3 start.
Jordan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#111707) #
Tell you what, that was a helluva game by Astacio. He deserved better than the L he's been saddled with. But man, Doc was firing on all cylinders -- that's as good as I've seen him in a long while. Folks, that's your ace right there, and he is back.

What a weird lineup for the Jays right now: the 3-4-5 batters are all hitting .205 or worse, and everyone else is above .300 (at least when John McDonald starts, and I really hope that doesn't become a trend).

Least favourite Rod Black moment: Zaun flukes into a looping flyball double down the right-field line, and Adams' weak spinning grounder to first base scores the go-ahead run. Black: "The Blue Jay bats are coming alive."

This team looks solid and confident. They're a pleasure to watch right now.
Rob - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#111708) #
Anybody else holding their breath?

I still am. When Hinske tripped there at the end, I almost passed out.

Grimlock - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#111709) #
Me Grimlock's FAVORITE part about Halladay is watching how quickly he works. A game in under 2.5 hours! He's pure word.
Braby21 - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#111710) #
the 3-4-5 batters are all hitting .205 or worse

Shea's hitting about .340

Jordan - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#111711) #
My bad; I meant the 2-3-4 hitters (Hudson-Wells-Koskie). It won't last, either.
Rob - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#111713) #
What a great game by Doc. Astacio would have ended up with the win had his infielders decided not to swing at everything in the dirt. Halladay had nothing left against Mark Teixeira, and I thought he was done. Not done, as in Gibbons going to the bullpen, but done as in the Jays were going to lose. Luckily, Hidalgo knocked one over to The Dude.

On CBS Sportsline's Game Chart, there are several pitches that are way below the strike zone that the Rangers swung at. Blalock was lost tonight, moreso than anyone else. Well, Mike Young looked pretty bad, too.
VBF - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#111714) #
This might explain a little bit about Vernon's temporary offensive rut he's in. Scroll down.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050414&content_id=1016029&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor
Mylegacy - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#111715) #
Jordan, isn't it wonderful that none of our 2-3-4 hitters are hitting over .205 and we're 7 and 3!

FINALLY, a team! At least enough of the team is hot enough to keep us winning.

I'm gonna love this summer.
Joseph Krengel - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#111716) #
Well the first 'weekly' power rankings are available at ESPN, and the Blue Jays are sitting pretty in sixth place. Considering the highest point they hit last year was something like 18th, I am pleasantly surprised.

Some further thoughts on today's game:

1. John Gibbons continues to impress me with his management of this team. Part of that comes from the fact that they are actually winning, but every time he makes a move, I stop and reconsider, and I'd make the same move almost every time. Bringing in the rookie Adams in a clutch, late-inning situation paid off (despite the defensive miscues) and will only help to further his development.

2. The above goes for his sticking with Halliday throughout the game as well.

3. John MacDonald has the most accurate throwing arm I've ever seen with a shortstop.

4. Gregg Zaun has really impressed me with his ability to work the count. To be honest I was not impressed too much with his performance at the plate last year, but he looks like a different guy this time around. He's working the count brilliantly.

5. For all the doubts so far, Hillenbrand has done exactly what JP says he would do. In addition, his defense has been steady at third, allowing Hinske to stay at first where he is clearly a plus fielder.

6. As a whole, this defense has the best range I've seen in the infield in the American league. Koskie may not be Sandis Ozolinsh out there, but he reaches the ball... that is when he's healthy.

7. They look like a team that expects to win when they go out and perform. All too often last year they played like a team that was just trying not to lose.

8. Kind of off-topic, but it needs to be said. The Montreal Expos no longer exist. That team in Washington is not the Expos. Rob and Pat... let it go. Please.
rtcaino - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#111717) #
Every day’s just a Halladay. (Game cap title suggestion)

Who is everybody's pick for player of the game?

What a time to throw a GEM, on a day where our offence couldn't get much going. Very gutsy effort by Doc. Had a certain basketball personality been calling the game he presumably would have shouted "Onions!" with regularity tonight. And why not? Buy a Bushel.

I also had the pleasure of listening to Wilner Jays talk it up for the first time this year. He did a good job sticking up for Sawkiw in regards to Warren mispronouncing Halladay's name. Did anyone hear the guy inquiring about the Jays possibly getting Kerry Wood? Do the Cubs need a 3B? Maybe we can ship the Dude for him... No?

Anyways, great game. I'm off the library to read up on some criminology. Speaking of which, Jays haven't been stealing many bases.


joemayo - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#111718) #
John MacDonald has the most accurate throwing arm I've ever seen with a shortstop.

agreed. those two throws he made in the 5th - while not getting either runner - were gold glove caliber plays nonetheless.

Rob - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#111719) #
Warren mispronouncing Halladay's name

See, this is one area where I think Sawkiw's got it right. What's Halladay's nickname? Doc. How did he get the nickname? From Doc Holliday -- how else? Thus, one would pronounce the "Hall" in Halladay like the "hall" in hallway, no?

If it's Hal-a-day (Hal as in HAL 9000), then how did he get the nickname Doc?

joemayo - Thursday, April 14 2005 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#111720) #
Had a certain basketball personality been calling the game he presumably would have shouted "Onions!"

ohh my goodness what a strikeout by RH 32!!

westcoast dude - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#111721) #
Doc is the player of the game, but what I liked, as has been posted, was the teamwork involved. The Cat leads off with a double, O-Dog moves him to third and V-Dub sacs him home. The 2 and 3 manufacture a run. Later on, Lex singles,
Zaun doubles and the pinch hitting rookie shortstop batting ninth gets the game winning RBI. Is this April or September?
Flex - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#111722) #
I don't think we want to get within 20 feet of Kerry Wood. He's got a history of arm trouble, he's making $11 million a year, and right now he doesn't have any idea where the ball's going. He's getting booed in Chicago.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#111723) #
"Shea is Koskie insurance, Hinske insurance and a very flippable commodity at the deadline if everyone else remains healthy and productive. He won't be the cornerstone of the next Jays playoff team, but he was a perfect fit for this year's club."

And he's also a big part of the reason Gabe Gross is in AAA instead of learning to hit major league pitching.

I'm as excited about the fast start as most Bauxites, but I'd like to temper that enthusiasm by asking a simple question: What are the Jays' chances of making the playoffs this year?

Well, if they hang in until June and trade for some reinforcements, they could push NY and BOS to the final weeks of September. The chances of that happened are probably less than 5 percent, and probably less than 2% as regards actually making the playoffs.

As such, everything that happens this year must be viewed in the cold hard light of development.

So, I'm just waiting to see what becomes of Hillenbrand and Catalanotto - will one of them be traded for something valuable? Will they return next year? Will Cat assume a bench role and allow Gross to take over in right? Will Gross get a fair 3 month shot at playing everyday? Will Hinske and Wells improve substantially on last year's production? Will Hudson rachet up his offensive game a notch? Will Quiroz emerge as the answer, or is he on his way to backup catcher oblivion?

The answers to these questions, among others, will tell us about the mid-term future of the Blue Jays offence.

Magpie - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#111724) #
Great game and will everyone who thought that the Texas Rangers would get back-to-back quality starts from Chan Ho Park and Pedro Astacio please please please pick up some lottery tickets for me tomorrow and tell me who you like in the Irish Sweepstakes.
Mick Doherty - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#111725) #
Mags, John Hart is busy, but I'll pass the message along.
Michael - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:05 AM EDT (#111726) #
7-3 and the best record in baseball. Very nice.

Especially because they've been earning those wins and playing well as a team.

Hillenbrand is a fine player, but a little overpriced when the Jays got him, and creates a problem for the Jays with too many OF/3B/1B/DH and not enough spots for them all. As far as problems go, this is not a terrible one to have. However since the Jays got him the offseason market for players continued up, and the Jays budget became bigger. Those moves help mitigate the Hillenbrand deal. So the Hillenbrand deal is much less of a bad deal and only a slightly puzzling one (as it fills something that isn't really a need).
Michael - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:25 AM EDT (#111727) #
Oh, and I meant to add this about the 7-3 start:

Games: 10
Wins: 7
Win Pct.: .5395
Win Pct. (rest of season): .5287
Teams: 165
#Winning Record: 119
Winning %: 72.6%
#Playoff: 48
Playoff %: 29.3%

So the Jays have a nearly 3/4 chance of ending the year with a winning record and a 3/10 chance of making the playoffs if you base it solely on the 7-3 start. See http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1818 for more.
Dave Till - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#111729) #
What's interesting about the 7-3 record is that it was accomplished without much help from the 2, 3 and 4 hitters - Hudson, Wells and Koskie have all been struggling. When the other batters' numbers return to earth - as they will - the middle of the order guys should take up the slack.

I'm not worried about Gabe Gross. I compare his situation to that of Shannon Stewart. Stewart was blocked for at least a year by Otis Nixon, but it didn't seem to have hurt his career any. When Stewart finally made it up, he didn't have as awkward an adjustment period as some hitters do. I don't think it's a necessary part of a hitter's development to spend three months in the lineup hitting .220.

I like the idea of the club having depth, especially after last year's run of injuries. I don't see anything wrong with having a whole bunch of guys good enough to play regularly.

If Gross starts tearing up AAA ball, the Jays can always make room for him.
Andrew S - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#111730) #
Apart from the Stewart comparison, I think it's not reasonable to say that acquisition of Shea has Gross in AAA rather than the big leagues.

It looked, and sounded, far more like Shea was acquired <i>because</i> Gross was going to play in AAA. Apart from which, we all saw what the value of injury insurance was last year.
Coach - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#111732) #
Robert and I rarely disagree, mostly because he's right so often. Absolutely, 2005 is primarily a developmental season. However, it was also very important to avoid a repeat of the 2004 disaster, and put a respectable club on the field. And as all reasonable people know, the primary cause of the Season From Hell was the ongoing health problems of the 2-3-4-5 hitters and the league's best pitcher.

A Johnson/Gross platoon in left, with Cat and Menechino sharing the DH spot, made sense. But that would have been tempting fate -- if Cat got hurt, if Koskie got hurt, if Hinske didn't hit, the next option would have been the unproven Eric Crozier. A righthanded bat, capable of playing either infield corner, provided the necessary depth and balance.

Ideally, for both players, the club and its fans, Catalanotto will be 100% healthy and hitting .350 as the trade deadline approaches and Gross will be an IL all-star. That will give J.P. two excellent options -- trade Cat to a contender for a nearly-ready pitcher, or trade one of his young OF (Gross and Rios) to a rebuilding club for some immediate help. Obviously, a Hillenbrand trade is another possibility, though that would tilt the lineup further left than Jack Layton.

Something big could happen sooner, of course. We have no idea what's going on behind the scenes. It's possible that the Dodgers are worried about Jayson Werth's wrist, and it's probable that Atlanta will regret the Mondesi experiment.

One thing I know for sure: it's infinitely better to have a talented player temporarily "stuck" in Triple-A than to have Dave Berg starting in left field.

OK, two things: Roy Halladay is a bigger, stronger, younger Curt Schilling. When the rest of this team is ready (one or two trades and one or two more of the prospects emerging) Doc can anchor a championship club.
uglyone - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#111736) #
There is no way that you can argue that it would have been an intelligent move for Ricciardi to paint himself into a corner where both Rios and Gross HAD to be effective full time MLBers for the Jays to be a servicable team this year.

That would have been poor management, especially since even with the $50 million payroll limit he still had plenty of room to spend. J.P. had the money to spend, so of course he should grab a tradeable bat with that money, as insurance against having to depend on too many kids and/or questionable vets (Hinske/skill, Koskie/health).

There is no doubt that Jays needed another bat, and if Gross and Rios prove that they deserve fulltime playing time by the end of the year, Shea is very tradeable (and I wager J.P. gets a better return on him than peterson).
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#111743) #
Dave Till,

Except that Stewart was 23 years old when Nixon was playing centre ahead of him. Gross is 25 - that's a very big difference in development terms.

And I was steamed when Stewart was kept down, because everyone knew that Nixon was the inferior player and that the Jays weren't going anywhere that year (1997) anyway.

I really doubt Gross would hit .200 in his first three months if he had been given a chance. I think his performance level would be similar to Cat's.

dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#111744) #
Can we please stop pretending that it was between Hillenbrand as injury insurance and having Dave Berg play LF? They could've signed someone like Ben Grieve for around the minimum.

I'm very happy about the Jays fast start- I've taken great joy in pointing the standings out to all the Yankee fans here. If they don't keep it up, at least it'll remind fans what it's like. What's word on the street in Toronto? Are people talking about the team more?

But if we're gonna say that the Hillenbrand trade was a good idea after he's had a hot week and a half, and replacing Delgado with Hinske was a good idea, then we've also got to say they should've dealt Hudson and Wells in the offseason while they still had value, and that siging Koskie was a horrible move.

For a quick laugh, anyone catch who the Mets started in LF last night? With their $106 M payroll?

Chris Woodward. That's the differnece in payrolls- if your payroll's $50 M, and you have to start a utility infielder in LF, you get Dave Berg. When it's over $100 M, you get upgraded all the way to Chris Woodward.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#111749) #
Rios already is playing full time.

Certainly, the Jays had money to spend. But they spent it on area where they already had players who could play. If they had acquired a power hitting outfielder (who was clearly superior to Gross) or a top-notch pitcher, I would have been thrilled. If that meant including Gross and/or someone like Rosario/McGowan in a trade, that would be okay too. When trading, the ability to take on salary should, in theory, make it much easier to get quality talent.

Some people will say that the Jays did the best they could given the conditions prevailing this off season. Well, that's easy to say, but how do we know this is the case? Other teams, now and in the past, have been able to make deals to bring in good players. And since I hold JP and company to the highest possible standard when it comes to running a baseball team, I was underwhelmed by the acquisitions this off-season (with the exception of Corey Koskie).

A week and a half of good hitting is not going to change my mind about Shea Hillenbrand.
dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#111750) #
if Gross and Rios prove that they deserve fulltime playing time by the end of the year, Shea is very tradeable (and I wager J.P. gets a better return on him than peterson).
I'm not sure about this- if his numbers are good, then yes. But from what I understood, there wasn't much of a market for Shea when JP acquired him over the winter, which is why all we gave up was Petterson. It isn't a sure thing that Shea hits .300 this year- if he's around .270 at the deadline, he's a liability b/c he doesn't walk.
Robert, Nixon actually wasn't bad with the Jays. Blocking Stewart with him was a mistake. My favorite Nixon stat line: 23 steals, 33 runs in 108 PA. I don't remember how standard it was to a have guy used exclsuively as a base-stealing PR, but he was great at it.
Named For Hank - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#111752) #
I posted this in today's Game Report thread, but since the debate seems to be running here, I'll throw it out in this thread:

Hillenbrand is a fine player, but a little overpriced when the Jays got him, and creates a problem for the Jays with too many OF/3B/1B/DH and not enough spots for them all.

The Jays signed a 3B, Koskie, who has a history of injuries. They knew coming into the season that they'd need to give him days off to keep him at his peak performance. They also needed a contingency plan if Koskie were to be badly injured and miss a large chunk of the year.

Shea Hillenbrand fits into this role perfectly. When people speak of Hillenbrand blocking Gabe Gross, I don't see this at all, unless Gross can play third base. No, the person blocking Gabe Gross, the person whose signing you should be railing against if you want Gabe here on the team today, is Corey Koskie -- Koskie's signing necessitated the signing of someone like Shea Hillenbrand. If the Jays had signed just Hillenbrand and not Koskie, then there wouldn't be the same kind of worry about a strong backup 3B. Of course, I don't think that anyone really wants to advocate that course of action.

Really, I think that some people just don't like Hillenbrand and are really reaching when they give their reasons why. "Blocking Gabe Gross" is, in my opinion, a completely ridiculous objection to Hillenbrand without a full-scale alternate backup 3B plan that doesn't involve a roster spot.

Coach - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#111757) #
But if we're gonna say that the Hillenbrand trade was a good idea after he's had a hot week and a half, and replacing Delgado with Hinske was a good idea, then we've also got to say they should've dealt Hudson and Wells in the offseason while they still had value, and that siging Koskie was a horrible move.

Kudos, dp -- right up there with the most nonsense ever contained in one paragraph. Nobody has said, hinted, implied or even joked that Hinske is an upgrade on Delgado (except with the glove, where he's vastly superior) and I fail to see how adding one of the best Canadian players of all time can be construed as "horrible". In your Bizarro universe, do Hudson and Wells suddenly have no value?

Named For Hank - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#111760) #
I think that dp's point is that all of those ideas are silly and based solely on the performances for each of those players for the first ten games.
dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#111763) #
Kudos, dp -- right up there with the most nonsense ever contained in one paragraph. Nobody has said, hinted, implied or even joked that Hinske is an upgrade on Delgado (except with the glove, where he's vastly superior) and I fail to see how adding one of the best Canadian players of all time can be construed as "horrible". In your Bizarro universe, do Hudson and Wells suddenly have no value?

Sorry, that isn't what I meant to say, I realize it came out poorly. What I meant was that keeping Hisnke's now seen as a good thing because he's had 10 hot games- I'm happy for him, but as he's slumped over the last 2 years, he has been good for 10 game stretches every now and then.

All I'm saying is that if people are going to say moves were "good" based on a week and a half of performance, we can't then excuse the bad performances. I think it's way too early to evaluate anything. In my Bizarro universe (wow, I didn't realize Bizarro had attained the status of proper noun!), you don't say moves were a success or failure after 10 games...

The biggest cause for hope, IMO, is that the infield defense seems tighter, which is great. In the 2004 offseason, I was pulling for them to get a glove man to play short, not every day but every time Doc started. I'd really like to see Gross in the lineup. Hinske and Frankie can back up 3B. Saying it's between Hillenbrand and Dave Berg is dishonest- the only reason Berg started in LF was because JP dealt from what he perceived to be a position of depth, then got caught a man short when an unforeseeable rash of injuries hit.
Coach - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#111768) #
No harm, no foul, dp. I was really responding to your Hillenbrand-Berg crack, perhaps because you've tweaked me before about my unshakable belief that the Jays are in the best possible hands.

FYI, "bizarre" isn't a proper noun, but Bizarro, like Krypton or Kal-El, certainly is.



Andrew S - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#111773) #
Well, I was the first one out to defend the Hillenbrand signing in this this thread, so I might as well say the rest of the generalizations about the position aren't true.

Hillenbrand isn't blocking Gross. Maybe you could argue a chain through Catalanatto, but the acquision of Hillenbrand still didn't confine Gross to AAA. Gross being confined to AAA necessitated the acquisition of Hillenbrand.

Moving Hinske to 1B was a desperate solution to a bad situation. I didn't imagine it would work out, but of course the coachs and management have a much better idea of what's going on than we do. Maybe he's always still be hurting and is back healthy for the first time. Who knows? I don't, and neither do you.

What acquiring players like Hillenbrand and retaining players like Cat does, apart from block younger guys, is give the team some much ballyhooed but still valuable vetern presence, and helps guard against a season like last year. Although not ideal, it's still easier to get people out to see a .500 team than it is to see a team go 67-95. I know a lot of people might not appreciate that, but ultimately keeping butts in the seats is an important part of running a ballclub, even in a rebuilding year.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#111781) #
"Gross being confined to AAA necessitated the acquisition of Hillenbrand."

This is absurd: no one is confined to AAA. What the Jays did was, instead of giving a promising young hitter a chance to prove himself in the majors, they went out and got a proven mediocrity at a position they already had capably filled.

I didn't like what they did then and I still don't like it. At the time I said that the Jays should just trade Gross and get it overwith because it's obvious they aren't going to give him a fair shot. I stand by what I said.
dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#111782) #
FYI, "bizarre" isn't a proper noun, but Bizarro, like Krypton or Kal-El, certainly is.
Oh am most def. down with the Supes context- enjoy seeing it used that way... I dig the animated series Bizarro, but the ones from the '50/'60(memory is spotty on these?) were...bizarre... Waiting for them to do a Bizarro in Smallville. (yes, i watch that horrid show)
Dave Till - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#111784) #
I don't want the Jays to make room for Gabe Gross until he's proven he can hit. (Spring training doesn't count.) If he starts having a monster season in AAA, then it makes sense to clear a starting job for him at the big league level.

I seem to be less impressed by Gross than some people; I'm still not convinced he can cut it as a major league regular. I am, however, a lousy scout, and have often been wrong before. :-)
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#111785) #
You want to improve a team? Do what Detroit did when they brought in Ivan Rodriguez, Fernando Vina, Rondell White and Ugie Urbina in response to a season of historic futility.

Four out of the five did well and the team rebounded to respectability.

What I wanted to see was for the Jays to bring in at least a couple of really good players, but alas they settled for one (Koskie). My objection was and is that they did not go far enough in rebuilding the team, and in the process of not going far enough, they blocked a promising young hitter.

I call it half-measures.

In retrospect, they offered a piddly amount to Delgado, failing to anticipate high free agent prices and/or the difficulty of acquiring a good player via trade. They wound up with excess cash and could only find someone like Hillenbrand to spend it on. That added up to a disappointing off-season in my book.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#111786) #
Dave Till,

And how do you feel about Alex Rios coming to the majors with absolutely no success in AAA? Gross has had over a season and a half of success in AAA.

dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#111787) #
I seem to be less impressed by Gross than some people; I'm still not convinced he can cut it as a major league regular. I am, however, a lousy scout, and have often been wrong before. :-)
Gross's pattern is like this- advance a level, struggle getting hits but still manage to draw walks. Then adjust and start hitting for power and average while keeping the walk rate solid. SO he has a tendancy not to post overwhelming numbers because he's struggled, like clockwork, upon promotion to every new level. And this is what he did last year with the Jays, which seemed to cause JP to sour on him quite a bit. Gross doesn't have to hit .300 to be valuable- he's a player that, even when slumping, will still get on base at least once a game. The biggest drawback that I see is he tends to deal with a lot of nagging injuries. I'm pretty confident that he'll be an above-average LF, and I still think eventually wind up a better hitter than Rios, but with the spped and D, theyll have about equal value. But then, I thought Felipe Lopez was gonna be great, so my scouting ability is questionable (nonexistent?) as well...
dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#111788) #
In retrospect, they offered a piddly amount to Delgado, failing to anticipate high free agent prices and/or the difficulty of acquiring a good player via trade. They wound up with excess cash and could only find someone like Hillenbrand to spend it on.

And there really isn't a deep FA crop this coming winter either. This team with Delgado and Koskie would lok pretty amazing- between what they're paying Hinske, Hillenbrand and SS, they'd be pretty close to what it would've taken to resign Delgado (maybe). It'll be interesting to see what the Jays do with all their arms- IMO, the pefect scenario would be to find a good young player on a rebuilding team who's about to hit FA, no matter what position he plays, and make a deal contigent on him signing a contract extension, even if they have to overpay in prospects. IIRC, there isn't anyone worth breaking the bank for coming onto the FA market...
uglyone - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#111791) #
I don't think it does any good to try and imply that people are changing their judgement of the Shea trade just due to his solid hitting so far. There was plenty of support at the time of the trade as well.

In fact, the early season team performance actually makes the Shea addition probably look LESS necessary than it did at the time - because all of a sudden Hinske has become a real hitter again. Hinske stinking and being on the verge of getting the boot was one of the biggest reasons why we needed Hillenbrand.
Dave Till - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#111796) #

And how do you feel about Alex Rios coming to the majors with absolutely no success in AAA? Gross has had over a season and a half of success in AAA.

I have my doubts about Rios as well. If he doesn't develop power or walks, he won't keep his job. I rate him slightly ahead of Gross, but that's because he's had more success in the majors to this point.

I don't think of Gross as having been that successful at Triple A in 2004. He batted .294 with nine home runs in 103 games; this isn't exactly the power production you want from a corner outfielder. Of course, he was hurt last year, like everybody else in the Blue Jay universe.

As I've said before, I'm not worried about the Gross situation. He needs to play every day to improve. If he truly is good enough to be a major league regular, and he's healthy, he'll start beating up on AAA pitching. Since the Jays aren't stupid, they'll make room for him if it happens.

dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#111802) #
FWIW, Gross's MLE for 2004 from BPro:
.270/.359/.415

If he could post that as a regular this season, I'd be happy. That's why I think it is worth having him up - his pattern is to struggle at a new level, he struggled in the majors last year, maybe he slogs through April/May, but the sooned you get him up, the sooner he'll adjust.
dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#111805) #
One last thing, and then I'll shut up-

What it looks like the JP regime is going to be successful at is developing a lot of average to above-average players. There's nothing that qualifies as superstar talent on the farm right now. That's a good thing if the Jays use the money they don't have to spend on market-priced average players, and instead use it on eilte-level or undervalued talent.
Jonny German - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#111818) #
There's nothing that qualifies as superstar talent on the farm right now.

What does qualify as superstar talent? Are there numbers to show it, or just word-of-mouth opinions? Can it be developed, or is it something a player either has or does not have from the moment he's drafted?

robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#111821) #
Sometimes prospects are hyped because they have great physical tools. Remember Ruben Rivera? He was most definiely one of the most highly regarded prospects at one time, but closer inspection his minor league numbers did not support the idea that this guy was going to be a star.

More objectively speaking, there are three types of players who eventually become big league stars:

1) The type that rockets through the minors.

A high school draftee typically performs very well in A ball as a teenager and holds his own at a young age in AA/AAA in his early 20s. An example would be Tony Fernandez, Derek Jeter or Shawn Green.

A college player in this class would typically have little trouble with the minors - they'd likely be knocking at the major league door within two years (sometimes one year)of the start of their professional career. Most play well or very well almost immediately upon arrival - Craig Biggio, Nomar Garciaparra and Frank Thomas would be examples.

2) The type that works his way through the minors steadily and continues to improve once they reach the majors for several seasons until - presto - they are stars. Sometimes they arrive a little late in the majors. Wade Boggs, Don Mattingly and Jim Edmonds come to mind.

3) Players who have a breakout year in AAA and then do well in their rookie years. Examples might be Mike Piazza or Tim Salmon or Bobby Crosby (too early to tell).

Of course it's possible for a player to fit into one of these categories and yet not become a true star player. The cause could be injuries or a lack of a proper work ethic: think Kal Daniels and Raul Mondesi.


Pitchers, I think, are subject to different forces while progressing through the minors, such that their development is much less predictable.
Craig B - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#111822) #
Remember Ruben Rivera? He was most definiely one of the most highly regarded prospects at one time, but closer inspection his minor league numbers did not support the idea that this guy was going to be a star.

These players are technically known as "Sil Campusano Clones" :)

Mike Green - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#111823) #

Further to Robert's post, John Sickels has an ongoing feature on Prospect Retrospectives on his site. It is impossible to tell whether Adam Lind will develop into Don Mattingly Jr. or Lou Piniella or never make the majors, or whether Curtis Thigpen will develop into Craig Biggio or Don Slaught or never make the majors. For that matter, Aaron Hill might develop into Bobby Grich or Lou Whitaker or maybe into Jay Bell. Youneverknow.

It is true that there are no would-be sluggers in the pipeline- no Carlos Delgados, Fred McGriffs, Jack Clarks or Frank Thomas. But, there are lots of different kinds of "superstars" (Bobby Grich was never considered to be on in the 70s, but he was one of the best players of the time). In other words, prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science, and the "art" is highly subjective.

Frank Markotich - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#111828) #
The general air of good feeling surrounding the team's start this year caused me to do a little research. I wondered how comparable teams had started off the next season, and how that might signify a change in fortunes.

The Blue Jays won 67 games in 2004. I considered a comparable team to be one which won 62 to 72 games. I used as reference sources baseballreference.com, retrosheet.org and the 2005 Sporting News Guide. For each season since 1982, for each team in the 62-72 win range (Year 1), I recorded its record in the first 10 games of the next season (Year 2) as well as its overall Year 2 record. I excluded any season for which the strike-shortened 1994 and 1995 seasons would have qualified as either Year 1 or 2.

There were 101 such teams. Their average record in Year 1 was 67.7-94.1. They regressed to the mean in Year 2, averaging 76.2-85.6 as a group, an average improvement of 8.5 games.

The following chart gives the number of wins by these teams in the first 10 games of Year 2 and the corresponding eventual average number of Year 2 wins:

0 - 54.3 wins (3 cases)
1 - none
2 - 69.2 wins (5 cases)
3 - 72.5 wins (12 cases)
4 - 73.9 wins (27 cases)
5 - 79.5 wins (22 cases)
6 - 77.4 wins (21 cases)
7 - 84.3 wins (6 cases)
8 - 90.7 wins (3 cases)
9 - 83.0 wins (2 cases)

There were no 10-0 starts for these teams.

There seems to be some correlation between the first 10 games and the eventual record.

The 6 7-3 starts belonged to the 1987 Twins (85 wins), 1997 Giants (90 wins), 2000 Royals (77 wins), 2001 Phillies (86 wins), 2001 Astros (93 wins) and 2003 Pirates (75 wins).

The 8-2 starts were the 1993 Phillies (97 wins), 1998 Cubs (90 wins) and the 2001 Twins (85 wins).

The 9-1 teams were the 1989 Rangers and 2003 Royals (83 wins each).

For the record, there were 2 teams with 100+ wins in Year 2: the ill-fated 1993 Giants (103 wins, up from 72) and the 1999 Diamondbacks (100 wins, up from 65).
dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#111836) #
What does qualify as superstar talent? Are there numbers to show it, or just word-of-mouth opinions? Can it be developed, or is it something a player either has or does not have from the moment he's drafted?

Having a hard time expressing myself today- this wasn't meant as a dig. Actually, I think I remember JP saying something to this effect himself WRT his draftig strategy. Rios was a failed first round pick until his breakout 2003- doesn't look like he's going to be superstar RF. Gross looks like he'll settle in around .360/.450, probably have a fluke .400/.500 at some point, which is very nice. GQ would be in the top tier of ML catchers if he hit .340/.440 with solid defense. Hill looks good. If Adams can be Walt Weiss, he'll help the team. But none of these guys seem like your prototypical #3 or #4 hitter based on their numbers. There's no David Wright, Andy Marte, Ian Stewart or Casey Kotchman in the Jays system right now (which is another reason I didn't like the Koskie deal at 3 years- there's a ton of stud 3B coming up, which should mean that the price of a mid-range 3B drops significantly over the life of the deal). That's not a bad thing in and of itself, it just seems to imply that the Jays are going to have to hit the FA market or make a trade to get a real force into the lineup. But with all the outfield positions covered by cheap talent (in 2006), catcher manned by a guy making close to league minimum, SS and 2B some combo of Hudon/Adams/Hill, even taking arbitration increases into account, the jays should have the money to go after a top-tier offensive talent. If he was 2 years younger, I'd see how much the Rockies would pay of Helton's salary; they've got Stewart at 3B in '06 and Atkins ready to shift over to 1B when he comes up.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#111837) #
"there's a ton of stud 3B coming up, which should mean that the price of a mid-range 3B drops significantly over the life of the deal)."


There almost always are. Some of them are moved to first base soon after hitting the majors. Example Teixeira, Thome, Edgar (to DH).
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#111838) #
Giambi, Bagwell ... that's just off the top of my head.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#111839) #
McGwire ... you get the idea.
Mike Green - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#111842) #
Frank Markotich, that's an interesting study. Thanks for sharing it with us. It confirms my intuitive impressions.
dp - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#111843) #
There almost always are. Some of them are moved to first base soon after hitting the majors. Example Teixeira, Thome, Edgar (to DH).

Atkins is in that category, but from watching Wright and what I've read about Marte and Stewart, it isn't the case with these guys. This is OTH, I'm at work, but it seems like 3B hasn't been that deep a position in recent years, and the top-flight talent coming up and the young talent already here is changing that. Teixeira was moved because of Blalock, not because of his D, right? David Wright is amazing- i haven't gotten to watch him much because Time Warner isn't carrying Mets games in manhattan, which sucks...
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#111844) #
The main reason a young 3B is moved is that when he gets to the majors the team already has a good defensive 3B and a hole at 1B. The second reason is that a young 3B starts to bulk up around age 24/25 in an effort to hit for more power, and that inevitably reduces his mobility. Take a look around and you will see very few bulky third basemen in the majors right now (Hinske might have been the bulkiest 3B regular in 2004).

Bagwell definitely had the tools to play 3B for several years (until his arm injury and until he bulked up). I'd say the same about McGwire, who was as agile as Teixeira is now when he first came up (I'm an old geezer so I remember him vividly as a rookie). Giambi and Thome wouldn't have been the worst defensive third basemen in the majors had they not been converted, at least until they "filled out".

It is natural for these guys to be very agile when they are 21 and 22, so of course, if you look at them now you see that they have the tools to play third. But I can almost guarantee you that half the guys you are talking about as "stud 3B prospects" will look a lot different in 3 years - and that half will be playing 1B.
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