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Yes, the weekend, which brought plenty of conversation and speculation here on Da Box, has passed into the netherworld of history.

And so ... Matt Morris to the Giants? Roger Clemens to the Red Sox??? Ricardo Rincon to the Cardinals, J.C. Romero to the Angels ... and Sidney Ponson to court in Baltimore.

What else is new? Should be new? And what d'ya think, anyway?

Monday, Monday (Can't Trust That Day) | 246 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
edtjeerd - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 11:35 AM EST (#136145) #
According to the Boston Herald, Ken Huckaby signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox.

I don't know how to do the link thing, but its on rotoworld as well.
Mike Green - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 11:53 AM EST (#136148) #
Thanks. I've updated the Sox thread with links.
Named For Hank - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 11:54 AM EST (#136149) #
To add a link to a plain text post, just paste the link in on it's own line -- it'll automatically be converted.

Got a call from the Toronto Blue Jays ticketing people this morning -- the Season's Pass has once again returned. $85 per person, up four bucks from '03, and back down from the weird $162-for-two with no option for a single last year.

Really, it's a no-brainer at that price. For me it'll just be a question of how many games I think a squirmy 18 month old boy will sit through.

Who am I kidding, I'll get it.
Jonny German - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 12:29 PM EST (#136158) #
Great news, N.F. Hank. Questions:

1) Are the passes transferrable, officially or unofficially?
2) Are they still for the entire 500 level, or are the best seats off limits?
3) Do you get any playoff ticket priority with these passes?
4) Are they available to people who didn't have them last year?
Chuck - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 01:38 PM EST (#136165) #
Do you get any playoff ticket priority with these passes?

Fueling the fire that this is, indeed, a fanboy site. ;)

unclejim - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 02:16 PM EST (#136172) #
Speaking of tickets, I've just ordered mine for the World Series Classic. They went on sale about an hour ago.

Pretty good value to see the 2nd group stage games at Anaheim Stadium. 6 games in 4 days.

Anyone else from here with a Blue Jays slant planning to head down ?
Ducey - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 02:52 PM EST (#136177) #
Seems to me that respecting Wilkerson, that time should work in the Jays' favour. Everyone at the winter meetings was complaining about the Texas GM and how he was asking too much. He went out and traded for Wilkerson and Sledge to add to and outfield of Nix, Delucci, Matthews, and Mench (among others). Wilkerson and Sledge together might not be as good offensively as Soriano, now Texas has a hole at 2B, and it still does not have the pitching it wants. They have Nevin at DH so they are going to have to trade some outfielders (2 at least).

Seems to me that JP just has to wait out Daniels for a better deal invloving Batista and ODog. These guys are natural fits for Texas' needs.
Mick Doherty - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 03:14 PM EST (#136181) #
(among others).

Really? Who??

The thinking here in Dallas is that before the Wilkerson trade, the Rangers had three (Nix, Mathews, Mench) and a half (Dellucci) OF. Sledge is okay as a fifth OF assuming Wilkerson starts in CF flanked by some combo of the other three; Nix was really overmatched in CF last year.

If the Rangers trade Mench, they're back down to near a minimum again. The only other OF on their 40-man is Jason Botts, and as an OF, he's a fine defensive 1B. And I understand they are looking to dump Nevin who doesn't play a defensive position any more and hit about .230 last year while striking out a LOT -- 97 in just 380 AB.

I see this rumor about Texas dealing Wilkerson all over the place and just don't see it. They NEED Wilkerson, to start in CF and lead off. For those of you suggesting that Rios go to Texas as part of the package, well, if he's capable of filling the Wilkerson role in Arlington, I assume he could do so in Toronto, too.

Mick Doherty - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 03:18 PM EST (#136182) #
Incidentally, the Rangers just acquired Vicente Padilla for a PTBNL, so the surplus TO pitching is looking less valuable to the Texans, I think.
Mike Green - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 03:31 PM EST (#136183) #
Mick, do you have any local insight on the Rangers' options at second base? We hear about Kinsler; his minor league career to date is frankly a bit of mystery. He'll probably be better than Soriano defensively, but whether he will hit is anyone's guess.

I also don't see any excess in Texas. Anywhere. Forgive me...
Sister - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 03:48 PM EST (#136186) #
If Padilla, whose VORP over the last two seasons has been 11 and 12 and who is moving to the AL and an extreme hitter's Park, is Texas' solution to their starting pitching problems, well its going to be a long season in Arlington.

At least Batista as a starter produced a VORP of 22 and 37 in 2004 and 2003, respectively.
MrPurple - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 03:49 PM EST (#136187) #
It looks like Boston has thier new Gm, 2 of them!
Ski - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 03:56 PM EST (#136189) #
Damn, with Padilla in Texas, the Rangers become that much less desperate for pitching, i don't see the Jays getting Wilkerson now for anything less than Batista and O-Dog....which isn't gonna happen. Who else wants Batista?

C'monnnnnnn failed Padilla physical!
lexomatic - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:07 PM EST (#136191) #
They NEED Wilkerson, to start in CF and lead off. For those of you suggesting that Rios go to Texas as part of the package, well, if he's capable of filling the Wilkerson role in Arlington, I assume he could do so in Toronto, too.
it seems to me that Rios's best position would be CF where his defense will give him leeway for his bat to develop. The jays can't afford to carry his bat in a corner and don't need him in CF because of wells. it makes sense for the rangers becaue he would be their best defensive CF since... cecil espy? (i don't know if he was actually any good but i can't think of another CF there since pettis). if he hits badly it'll at least look superficially good, and he might actually hit really well.
Mike Green - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:17 PM EST (#136193) #
Happy birthday, Orlando Hudson!
Sister - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:18 PM EST (#136196) #
I don't see how Padilla to the Rangers changes anything with respect to their need for more (and better) pitching. Coinciding with (and perhaps precipitating) the Padilla move, the Rangers lost their best starter (Rogers) to the Tigers.

jgadfly - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:30 PM EST (#136201) #
RE:"Jim - Saturday, December 10 2005 @ 03:46 PM EST (#135976)
Just heard JP on WFAN in NY for 20 minutes
Nomar isn't a financial fit, JP thinks he's got some much bigger dollar opportunities so he thinks he's out of the picture on Garciaparra."
Is JP blowing smoke?...If he isn't he should be. Garciaparra is a better fit than Giles and would bring so many intangibles to the J's. I recognize that Cleveland are probably running out in front as far as signing him but where would he fit with them. The one thing that Cleveland doesn't have that Toronto does have is the "better fit". They(Cle) may not be the better team (head to head) but their chances of passing CWS are probably better than TO's right now of passing NYY or BRS but with him in the mix in a J uniform those chances are vastly improved. He helps TBJ more than any other FA available according to his available roles matched to his abilities and while doing that he could not only be recognized as the most valuable BJ but as a legitimate league MVP ... in Cleveland he would forever be in a Hefner/Peralta/Sizemore shadow whereas in TO he could be the beneficiary of better seasons from Halladay/Burnett/Ryan/Overbay and he could ride that media wave into the limelight as Mr. Do-Everything...when the J's go into Boston or NY it would be Garciaparra & the J's and as the J's succeed so too would Nomar...if the J's win so does Nomar. There would be less pressure on Garciaparra as supersub than as superstar and less media pressure on the younger J's as they come in under the radar to compete with the best. The J's have to sell Nomar on this "vision" even if it may be lesser money in the short term for him. Two year contract with opting in/out clauses (whatever that is?) after one for both parties ...IMO 4WIW DIT
georgekeip - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:35 PM EST (#136203) #
it seems to me that Rios's best position would be CF where his defense will give him leeway for his bat to develop. The jays can't afford to carry his bat in a corner and don't need him in CF because of wells.

I have never understood this reasoning for Rios.
Essentially you are saying that a team like the Rangers could afford to let Rios' bat develop in CF because they need less offense. I assume that by this people are implying that their production from the corner outfielders is good so they can afford less production from the CF.
Maybe I am wrong but by this line of reasoning can't the Jays just play Wells in RF and Rios in center and have the same situation (I am not actually advocating that)? What does it matter what position someone plays as to whether their bat can be carried by the rest of the team? Isn't more of a factor of the overall quality of the offense?
Jordan - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:35 PM EST (#136204) #
Jays fans should regard a Wilkerson acquisition as a very long shot at this point, in part because of the reasons that Mick has outlined, and in part because I just don't think these two front offices are on the same wavelength. I suspect the Jays would have to seriously overpay to get Wilkerson, and while I like him a great deal, he's not worth that.

I tend to think Reggie Sanders is a more likely option, but the Blue Jays will have to unload some more salary before they can add him to their ranks (assuming he's interested). IOW, Hinske and/or Batista will have to leave first, and the market for these guys does not appear to be brisk at the moment. This whole thing will likely stretch over into January.
Mick Doherty - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:35 PM EST (#136205) #
Mick, do you have any local insight on the Rangers' options at second base?

As I understand it, the current plan is to give Kinsler every chance, but if he needs a month or two at OKC, to go with Mark DeRosa short term. Apparently DeRosa, if you take away April and May, was pretty solid last year, though that sounds like a bad justification. I suppose Marshall McDougall and/or Joaquin Arias could also fill that role. I assume the Tex preference would be to get a shortstop and slide Young back over there.

Sister, Rogers was never going to come back to Texas, under any circumstances, so I don't think anyone down here considers that a "loss" in the sense you're presenting it.

Magpie - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:38 PM EST (#136206) #
Garciaparra is a better fit than Giles

Well, Nomar is at least available. The biggest hole in the Jays' lineup is in right field, and Giles is obviously one of the best qualified people in all of baseball to fill that particular spot. Not to mention the fact that he's a better hitter than Nomar. But that's water under the dam now...

Sister - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:54 PM EST (#136209) #
Mick, that is fair enough. However, if we are comparing a direct loss in terms of production Padilla represents a significant drop in talent from Rogers (who had a VORP of 40).
Someone has to take Rogers' place in the starting lineup and right now the quality of options available is slim.

I would speculate that Batista would slip nicely into the #2 or #3 spot in the Texas rotation if the season started today, and that has some value.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 04:59 PM EST (#136211) #
"Maybe I am wrong but by this line of reasoning can't the Jays just play Wells in RF and Rios in center and have the same situation (I am not actually advocating that)? What does it matter what position someone plays as to whether their bat can be carried by the rest of the team? Isn't more of a factor of the overall quality of the offense?"


Took the words out of my mouth. People are putting too much stock entirely on a player's worth offensively, based on position played defensively. There is some relevance, but it is indirect and almost inconsequential.
Newton - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:00 PM EST (#136212) #
I've said it numerous times already, but Durazo and Sanders are the Jays best options to fill RF and DH respectively.

If we clear a bit of salary and sign these two up without sacrificing much in the way of prospects (only those required to dump the salaries of Hinske, Hillenbrand, Batista) and we get to make a run this season while being well positioned asset wise heading into 07.
mathesond - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:01 PM EST (#136213) #
It looks like Boston has thier new Gm, 2 of them!

Well, it worked out pretty well for Baltimore the past couple of seasons...
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:02 PM EST (#136214) #
you mean DH and RF respectively, right?
Jordan - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:08 PM EST (#136215) #
The other thing about Jon Daniels is that, unpopular as he may be with his fellow GMs, he made a pretty good deal in getting Wilkerson and Sledge for Soriano, and he got a pretty serviceable pitcher in Padilla (albeit with personality issues) for presumably next to nothing -- and he did those deals with two veteran GMs. I expect Ranger fans will be happy with an unloved GM if he can continue to improve the team, so I doubt he'll start being particularly easy to deal with.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:11 PM EST (#136216) #
"and he got a pretty serviceable pitcher in Padilla (albeit with personality issues) for presumably next to nothing"

padilla, allegedly, was about to become a free agent. Gillick was not going to tender him a contract

Cristian - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:13 PM EST (#136217) #
Assuming that the Rangers tender Padilla a contract, he'll cost about 4.5 million this year. Or about 1 Batista.
Newton - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:13 PM EST (#136218) #
aye jackson.
ayjackson - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:18 PM EST (#136219) #
i agree that Sanders would be a good fit for the Jays. I like Wilkerson, but don't want to see the Jays overpay. I think Baptista and Hudson is too much when a guy like Sanders is available.

I also don't want to see the Jays trade Rios unless it's in a package bringing Dunn to Toronto. Many seem to forget that he's only 23 and have given up on him too soon. I suppose the same people who have given up on Rios are the ones critical of JP for getting rid of Lopez and Izturis.

One other free agent outfielder that isn't getting a lot of love is Juan Encarnacion. I think he's healthy now and poised for bigger things. He's good defensively and shouldn't be too much more than the $4.4M he made last year. He shouldn't necessarily be targeted, but kept in mind when the cost for Wilkerson etc is too high.
Jordan - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:19 PM EST (#136220) #
Assuming that the Rangers tender Padilla a contract, he'll cost about 4.5 million this year. Or about 1 Batista.

Indeed. But Padilla did not cost the Rangers Brad Wilkerson, is my point.

Cristian - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 05:46 PM EST (#136224) #
That's because Batista is a much better pitcher than Padilla. Too bad the Rangers didn't bite on Batista because apparently they were in the market for a maddeningly inconsistent pitcher with great stuff who can either start or come out of the bullpen.
Chuck - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 06:12 PM EST (#136226) #
I don't think that the Rangers are so deep in starting pitching that the acquisition of Padilla precludes the pursuit of Batista.
CeeBee - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 06:47 PM EST (#136227) #
Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers : "Hendry should offer Zambrano, center fielder Corey Patterson and shortstop Ronny Cedeno for Tejada and right-hander Daniel Cabrera or one of the Orioles' pitching prospects—Hayden Penn, John Maine or Adam Loewen."
Guess we are not the only ones that dreams in technicolor..... or sees the world through rose tinted glasses ;)
Nolan - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 06:47 PM EST (#136228) #
Anyone know of a site that lists next year's free agaents?
R Billie - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 06:52 PM EST (#136229) #
Maybe I am wrong but by this line of reasoning can't the Jays just play Wells in RF and Rios in center and have the same situation (I am not actually advocating that)? What does it matter what position someone plays as to whether their bat can be carried by the rest of the team? Isn't more of a factor of the overall quality of the offense?

The Jays would not play Rios over Wells in CF because Wells is more experienced and a bit better than Rios on defence. Other teams may have bigger needs for a centerfielder if they don't have someone whom they think can hack it defensively while holding their own offensively.

For Texas it may not be the case because Rios is without question better than Wilkerson defensively though I'm not sure how he compares to Nix. Offensively he is younger than Nix and already a better pure hitter and should improve on his .703 ops (to Nix's .664) though to what end it's hard to say. Nix has always been a terrible contact hitter with extremely poor K/BB. Rios isn't terribly patient himself but can make consistent contact. His defence combined with more capable offence than they have from other options in centerfield would have value for the Rangers in the absence of better defensive options.

I think Wilkerson is a swell player but on defence alone, he was worth one win less playing mostly left field and 1B than Rios was playing right field. I think that gap would be a bit bigger if both moved to CF. Offensively, Wilkerson is more than 20 equivalent runs ahead of Rios but his potential to improve at age 28 is very limited while Rios' potential to improve at age 24 is still tangible.

The likelihood is that Wilkerson will have more overall value than Rios in 2006. It's not a lock though. We're not talking about a chasm as between Giles and Rios. We're talking about maybe a difference of 20 runs offensively offset by better defence from Rios and a very significant difference in salaries.

Wildrose - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 06:54 PM EST (#136230) #
Lost in the shuffle of the B.J. Ryan signing last Monday, was the announcement of Canada's roster for the up-coming World Baseball Classic. Twenty names put forward, with space for ten more, some will come from this list. Any thoughts?
Ron - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 06:59 PM EST (#136231) #
With the way the off-season is going, it doesn't look like the Jays will be able to add a proven 30+ HR bat.

The biggest need going into the off-season wasn't a SP or closer, it was 2 power bats. I think Overbay can be one of those bats although he's not really a power guy (if you go by slugging and HR) but the Jays still need a hitter that will strike fear into the opposition. Sanders, Wilkerson, and Mench don't qualify imo.

I just hope Koskie can bounce back next year and go back to his 2001 form. Outside of Wells, he's got the best ability to launch 30 HR's next season.
The_Game - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 07:04 PM EST (#136234) #
Blair just updated..it looks like no Nomar in Toronto, and likely no Wilkerson..

Reggie Sanders looks to be the next target.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/
sweat - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 07:12 PM EST (#136235) #
It's hard to be dissapointed about wilkerson, as JP wasn't going to get him without badly overpaying.
Wildrose - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 07:19 PM EST (#136237) #
My initial thoughts,is that we're stronger in the pitching department than I'd imagined. Frankly I'm surprised, but pleased, to see guys like Gagne and Bedard stepping forward for their country. If I was Gagne's agent, knowing he's going into his free agent year,I'm not sure I'd encourage his participation for fear of injury. The same with all the hurlers really , as none have the benefit of a long term contract that would be fully insured. Good for these guys.

Notable absentee's include:

-Rich Harden: Has a long term contract, but Beane does not want him involved as he's coming off a late season injury. Harden may not have played anway, since he's been quoted as having some Owen Hargreaves like bitterness towards Baseball Canada .

-Ryan Dempster: Has a long term deal, but he's not on the initial list.

-Adam Stern: Not on the initial roster. Injury? Is a guest at a Baseball Canada fundraiser so he's not bitter, not sure whats up?

-Larry Walker: Told Bob Elliott he will not play because of his chronic neck pain. There seems to be some movement to have him as a coach.

6-4-3 - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 07:21 PM EST (#136238) #
Nolan: if you google "2005 baseball free agents", it'll give you this site http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagent.html which has lists of upcoming free agents through 2010.
JayFan0912 - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 07:35 PM EST (#136242) #
"Maybe I am wrong but by this line of reasoning can't the Jays just play Wells in RF and Rios in center and have the same situation (I am not actually advocating that)? What does it matter what position someone plays as to whether their bat can be carried by the rest of the team? Isn't more of a factor of the overall quality of the offense?"

I think you are not taking everything into account. For instance, wells could be traded for a better hitting RF/LF, and rios would be shifted to play CF -- someone like abreu or manny ramirez would be more valueable offensively than wells.

If healthy, I hope the jays go after frank thomas. Reggie Sanders is nice, but if healthy, thomas could be good for over 30 HRs.

I also don't think keeping batista is such a bad thing. He is a type A free agent, and would surely get a multi-year contract offer, which would give us a couple of draft picks. Ditto for lilly, catallanato, schoenweiss, speier, and maybe hilly. That's 5 or 6 extra first/second rounders, along with an extra 5 or 6 extra comp. picks to stock up the farm system.
Smaj - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 08:34 PM EST (#136243) #
I certainly believe patience is a virtue in this pitching market. Lets see where the Boras Boys go & for how much before making any decisions on Batista's future. After Millwood, Washburn et al are off the market, Batista's value & demand should increase significantly.

From a salary standpoint it appears that JP has to deal Batista & either Hinske/Hillenbrand to get to $75M for the season (assuming the acquisition of another offensive piece).

I am a proponent of Wilkerson, but suspect he is a Ranger long term...the price for the Jays seems too high to obtain him (if reports are accurate).

Reggie Sanders is appealing on many levels. Not the least of which is his free agent status, thus cash is king to get him.

The more I ponder an O-Dog trade, I keep returning to the same conclusion, don't do it yet! Statistically speaking certainly a case to be made for shipping the O-Dog for a strong twig. However, I am a believer in the power of team chemistry & cohesion and recognize how this element can turn fairly quickly. O-Dog is a clubhouse leader as Zaun has mentioned in the past & more recently Vernon Wells has stated the same. Hill is not yet a proven offensive commodity, six wonderful weeks a career does not make. Consensus on this site is that he will be a hitter, but he is not a consistent producer as of yet. The Jays might be best suited to see Hill in Spring Training & determine if Hill plays everyday in TO or everyday in Syracuse. Ditto for Rios. I can think of worse scenarios than having two prospects being bitter in AAA realizing that if they tear the Int'l League apart they will be back in the Bigs brimming with confidence. At the same time having incumbents looking over their shoulders trying to keep their jobs....competition is a great thing!

Realistically the Jays need not put all of their eggs in the 2006 basket, its not playoffs or bust. Expectations are certainly toward contention in '06, but clearly there is a larger view from management for sustained success. Patience is the virtue at hand to ensure full return on current assets.

timpinder - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 09:34 PM EST (#136248) #
Too bad we're out of the Garciaparra bidding and Wilkerson is now a long shot. Those were the two best options discussed IMO. I'm not too keen on Sanders. He's almost 40, hits for only modest power, and doesn't have a particularly impressive OBP. I really hope some better options open up.
CaramonLS - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 10:24 PM EST (#136249) #
Hits only for modest power?

You do know Sanders had a slg% of .546 last season, don't you?

In fact his slg% was higher than all of the Jays last year, and his "off year" which was 2004, he STILL had a .482 slg%, which is higher than all of the Jays last season.

(Highest Jay last season was .463 slg%) Vernon Wells.

His OBP isn't amazing, but if he was able to get somewhere in the .340s, and hit for solid power, he would be a great pickup, even at his age.





Maldoff - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 10:45 PM EST (#136251) #
I still think that Preston Wilson is a better option than Sanders, Wilkerson, etc. In 68 games for the Nationals last year (keep in mind that RFK is a terrible hitters park), him and Wilkerson put up the following lines (AVG/OBP/SLUG/OPS):

Wilkerson: .248/.351/.405/.756
Wilson: .261/.329/.443./772

Just saying that if it's power the Jays want, maybe Wilson is a good, cheap option.
greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 10:45 PM EST (#136252) #
Sanders is an interesting player. His career stats are volatile (his OPS ranges from 705 to 912. In 2004, he walked 33 times in 446 AB--almost Shea-like. In 2005, he walked 28 times in 295 AB--a respectable 340 OBP). He strikes out a lot. He has a very good SB percentage. According to Stats, Inc, he stays in great shape and plays both OF corner positions well. Has massive holes in his swing. Still manages to contribute offensively.

Yes, he's 38, and apparently wants a 2-year deal. I think he could be a good pickup. We keep Hudson, League, et al, and he's probably tradable at the deadline if we're not contending.

On the other hand, how are we going to deal Batista and Hinske? I don't like the idea of them remaining on the roster (and payroll). Batista, because he blows games out of the 'pen (what role would JP like to see him in, exactly?), and Hinske, because of all those strikeouts and popups and power outages and streaks of futility.



CaramonLS - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 10:50 PM EST (#136253) #
I think at worst, Batista could be packaged with Hinske and be dumped for nothing or a PTBNL.

You want Batista? You pay the Hinske tax.
CaramonLS - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 10:55 PM EST (#136254) #
I don't like Wilson.

In Colorado, he averaged Reed Johnson esqe numbers on the road. I think Sanders has much more power than Wilson does.

Who knows though, his Florida days are long behind him though.
greenfrog - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 11:07 PM EST (#136255) #
CaramonLS, I know what you're saying, but I wonder whether this isn't a bit of Jays fan bias creeping through. How many teams are actually willing to take Batista and Hinske--even for a Scott Wiggins-type player? I know the Dodgers were reportedly willing to trade Bradley for Batista, but more than anything else, wasn't that really a case of trying to unload a problem player?

Part of the problem from a Jays' perspective is that this seems insane; surely these players still have some value. But I think the problem is that both have shown themselves to be squarely mediocre (great arm or not; great rookie season or not). Batista is 34 and has had a couple of OK, but not great, seasons. But the last two have been pretty blah. He's getting older. Hinske has a fairly large salary, hasn't shown much of anything since his rookie season, can't really play 3rd, is a below-average 1st-baseman or DH, lacks power, strikes out too much, etc.

I don't have the answer. But when Texas prefers Vincente Padilla over Batista, I start to wonder.
rtcaino - Monday, December 12 2005 @ 11:20 PM EST (#136257) #
""I don't have the answer. But when Texas prefers Vincente Padilla over Batista, I start to wonder.""

Why do you say that they prefer Padilla over Batista? I don't know if that is the case. Padilla they got for very little, and JP wants Wilkerson.
Ron - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:14 AM EST (#136258) #
I know Jay fan likes to dump all over Hinske but guess who had a better 2nd half last season, Hillenbrand or Hinske?

As for a package of Batista and Hinske, Blair reported JP turned down Javy Lopez for those 2 players.

If that offer was legit, I would have been all over it like a fat kid when he sees cake.

I'm not sold on the catching combo of Zaun and Quiroz. I would rather see Lopez and Zaun split the duties, with Lopez also DH'ing. I believe Lopez only has one year left on his deal so if he stinks it up he's off the books anyways.
Named For Hank - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:26 AM EST (#136259) #
1) Are the passes transferrable, officially or unofficially?

No -- the pass has your name on is and you are supposed to show ID when you pick up your ticket (though I didn't have to last year because everyone recognized me -- a sign of going to far too many ballgames). However, you can get a second pass that is marked "Jonny German - Guest", so that you can take a different person with you to the game all the time.

2) Are they still for the entire 500 level, or are the best seats off limits?

Still for the whole 500 level.

3) Do you get any playoff ticket priority with these passes?

None whatsoever. That is their major drawback compared to a Flex Pack, which gives you first shot after the season ticket holders have purchased theirs.

4) Are they available to people who didn't have them last year?

I don't know. You can call Johnathan at (416) 341-1651 and ask.
VBF - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:38 AM EST (#136260) #
This is what I'm doing and it makes some sense.

I'm buying a season pass. But because you get no amenities with the pass, I suggest going on it with four friends and buying one flex pack between the four of you. It's not about the tickets, but since you can buy a maximum of four playoff tickets per flex pack, you're guaranteed the amenity of being able to purchase post-season seats before the general public and for the low cost of 15 bucks, or whatever.

Also, two of you will get a BJ Ryan/Corey Koskie bobblehead or an autograph session if you purchase before Christmas.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:40 AM EST (#136261) #
More Joe Sheehan:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4652

I don't want to quote much, b/c it's subscribers only. At first I liked Sheehan. But I have to quote the last couple of sentences:

"As the meetings ended the Jays were still trying to address their offense. They’ll need at least one more hitter to make a push in this division. The ’06 season is critical for them, and they’d be well served to break the bank, the farm system and anything else within reach to make it happen immediately."

This is just the tip of the iceberg. He also questions the Overbay trade ("Overbay isn't clearly a big-time hitter"), deciding that he doesn't like it after all, and suggests that it might have made more sense to keep Gross and put him at DH.

Hello? I have no idea what this guy is talking about. Wasn't he recently saying that the "break the bank" approach is what differentiates backward teams like Toronto from forward-looking ones like Tampa Bay? Did he actually watch Gross over the last season and a half? He really seems to have it in for the Jays this off-season. Memo to Sheehan: the core of the team is still going to be in place in 2007, we've got Overbay for 3 years, a lot more pitching talent on the way, and a solid rolling 3-year budget. BP ideologues, better get used to it.
Tyler - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 01:49 AM EST (#136263) #
"As the meetings ended the Jays were still trying to address their offense. They’ll need at least one more hitter to make a push in this division. The ’06 season is critical for them, and they’d be well served to break the bank, the farm system and anything else within reach to make it happen immediately."

I think I understand what he's driving at here. If the Jays have decided that this is their window to compete, they need to not half ass it. Personally, I still don't think that they've added enough to get to the point where they can say they EXPECT to win the division next year. If you're the New York Yankees you have the resources that you don't need to direct every facet of your organization to winning now. I don't think that this is the case in Toronto. For the Jays, if this is go time, for these moves to make sense, they need to commit all of their available resources to winning now.

R Billie - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 02:31 AM EST (#136264) #
I kind of agree. Now would be the time to trade Hinske and maybe even Batista at a loss and invest some money in risks like Thomas or Garciaparra (or both) and hope they turn out.
rtcaino - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 02:33 AM EST (#136265) #
""For the Jays, if this is go time, for these moves to make sense, they need to commit all of their available resources to winning now.""

Somehow I don't see this happening, especially given JP's new contract.

Random thought: 2007 rotation

Doc, AJ, McGowan, Purcey, Romero.

I wouldn't put money on this rotation actually coming to fruition by opening day 2007, though it very well could. Plus having Chacin and Towers locked up as insurance is a pretty solid plan B. But geeze that would be sweet rotation.
Nolan - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 02:35 AM EST (#136266) #
"Nolan: if you google "2005 baseball free agents", it'll give you this site http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagent.html which has lists of upcoming free agents through 2010."

Heh, thanks 6-4-3. I still use Yahoo! and so I looked around for quite a while and found nothing.
Zao - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 04:07 AM EST (#136270) #
I'm glad the rediculous rumours of getting Wilkerson for Batista, Rios, and Hudson did not come true.

Think of the headlines in the star "White Jays get Whiter" or "JP is having a white christmas"
Michael - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 04:50 AM EST (#136271) #
On competing:
I think the Jays should be pushing all they can to compete, but not in 2006. The Jays peak competitive years should be 2007 and 2008. They may compete in 2006, and some of getting ready for 2007 and 2008 means investing in FA now (as you don't land everyone in one offseason), but 2006 shouldn't be the blow it all year.

On the poorly appreciated Miguel Batista:
I think the best place to put Batista (assuming you can't trade him for very good value) is in the rotation. He's been a better than league average pitcher every year since 2001. If you look at his ERA+ he's gone 136, 103, 132, 101, and 109. You can expect next year that he'd go somewhere between 95 and 145, most likely around 115. That's well above average.

115 is around the career averages of Colon, Morris, Mulder, Wood, Garcia, Millwood, Washburn, and Radke. Now Batista's career average is worse than that (it is 103) but that is becuase of his 2000 and earlier years which were not as good. His weighted 2001-2005 numbers come out to around 116.

Batista's getting paid about $5m.

Esteban Loiza has a career ERA+ of 99 and has only topped 111 once and he's making $7m/year. Loiza's last 5 years given him an ERA+ average of 106.

Towers just won his contract based on having a career ERA+ of 100 (and having pitched exactly 5 years) and his best ever year last year with a 120 ERA+.

Chacin last year had an ERA+ of 119.

AJ Burnett has a career ERA+ of 110, had a 117 last year, and has a last 5 weighted average of 113.

Ted Lilly has a career ERA+ of 97 and a last 5 years average of 99.

David Bush has a career ERA+ of 111.

The Jays, and most teams, could do a hell of a lot worse than giving the ball to Batista every 5th day.
Andrew - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 05:21 AM EST (#136272) #
Maybe Batista would make good midseason trade bait with the relative lack of interest in him now. Right now I kind of agree with the general direction of this board and think he's currently pretty undervalued. There's no reason to think he won't perform next year so perhaps plug him into the rotation, perhaps in place of Lilly, and watch as he raises his value with some solid numbers. His first half numbers have been very strong in the past, so this is a likely event. Batista's value will likely increase greatly as next season progresses. That September really did a number on his numbers. At midseason, when teams are searching for a quality arm to replace a burnt-out Matt Morris or the like, offer up Batista... and profit!

I don't know what we'd do with the extra rotation arm though. How much trade value does Ted Lilly have?
Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 09:01 AM EST (#136274) #
If you're the New York Yankees you have the resources that you don't need to direct every facet of your organization to winning now.

Isn't this what the Yankees have done over the last 5 years? Trading almost every worthwhile prospect, trading almost every good young player, spending huge dollars on free agents (and rarely youngish free agents).... were these not "win now" moves? And with their gaping hole in centrefield and their 2-man bullpen and their rotation full of might-bes and once-weres and their losses of $50M+ in 2005, I think it's safe to say that at this point it's caught up to them. The Yanks will still bash the ball in 2006, but their pitching and defence and age make me very optimistic about Toronto's chances of getting out of 3rd place.

I still use Yahoo! and so I looked around for quite a while and found nothing.

I'm a fan of Google (especially Gmail and Google maps), but I'm also a fan of Yahoo and I think the Google search engine is overrated in comparisons with Yahoo... so I just Yahooed "2005 baseball free agents", and waddyaknow... the exact same site comes up as result #3.

Think of the headlines in the star

If the Jays ever start conducting business based on what the malicious fantisizers at the Star think, I'll stop supporting the team.

I think the best place to put Batista (assuming you can't trade him for very good value) is in the rotation.

Absolutely. If I'm JP I offer teams their choice between Batista and Lilly. And maybe I even keep both of them and instead deal Chacin in a package with Hinske.

Craig B - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 09:40 AM EST (#136279) #
The Yankees also face a need to cut payroll by approximately $40 million this year, if my calculations are correct (I think they are), if I have the right information about their financial situation (I think I do), and if Steinbrenner faces up to the reality that they need to get their losses under control (I'm pretty sure this is the case too).

So signing Roger for another $15 million isn't going to help. It's bad enough to try to cut salaries by $40 million - or $30 million plus Bernie Williams - without having to up the amount to $55 million!
Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:03 AM EST (#136287) #
A quick scan of New York's major additions and subtractions for 2006 at this point:

Minus:
Kevin Brown, $15M
Tom Gordon, $3.7M
Felix Rodriguez, $3.2M
Steve Karsay, down $3.4M
Tino Martinez, down $2.5M
Bernie Williams, down $8.5M

Plus:
Kyle Farnsworth, $6.3M
Jason Giambi, raise of $3.5M
Randy Johnson, raise of $4.5M
Hideki Matsui, raise of $5M

Figures courtesy of Hardball Dollars. This is very rough, I'm not sure if I'm accounting for the "down" numbers correctly - those are probably option buyouts and may well be counted as part of the 2005 budget. And of course I'm only looking at the big dollar changes. But for what it's worth, the above is a net $17M savings, so if Craig's information is correct (and I believe it is), they still need to trim $23M. Sweet!

Mark - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:07 AM EST (#136288) #
Don't forget Tony Womack
Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:24 AM EST (#136290) #
But he's so forgettable!

The Womack trade saves the Yanks another $2M, and more importantly frees up 351 plate appearances that were completely wasted in 2005.
Twilight - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:38 AM EST (#136293) #
Yeah, I think you can probably add Mike Myers to that too, though he's not gonna be too expensive, maybe $2m at most. Then again... lol
Newton - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:00 AM EST (#136296) #
Lilly shouldn't be traded.

While he is maddeningly inconsistent he is a pitcher with the talent to make a significant contribution, a la Contreras on the Chi Sox last season, if he puts it together.

Unexpected, but reasonably likely, breakout campaigns make or break seasons for teams like the Jays. To me Lilly has more potential to be a difference making player than Batista and should be kept around.
timpinder - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:33 AM EST (#136298) #
J.P. has said he's done with Garciaparra, he has no interest in Bradley, and he's not getting Wilkerson or Mench. He said there's been a lot of interest in Batista, but that he hasn't received a single call about Lilly.

He also said that since the meetings, some "new" trade opportunities have opened up.

Does anybody have any knowledge or even speculation as to what these new trade possibilities are?
Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:42 AM EST (#136300) #
While he is maddeningly inconsistent, he is a pitcher with the talent to make a significant contribution...

This description applies equally well to Batista. In his last few years in Arizona, he posted ERA+ numbers in excess of 130, something Lilly has never done in his career.

They are both going to cost around the same next year, and have about the same expected value. I say deal whoever brings back more in a trade. Some GM's will prefer Batista's 95 MPH fastball while others will focus on Lilly's K's and lefthandedness. From a purely objective standpoint, I think Batista has more value. He's got no history of arm problems, and can be used as a starter or closer.

I'm dead set against dealing Chacin. He stands a pretty good chance of matching what you're going to get from Batista or Lilly, but for about 4MM less (at least in 2006). Even though his K/BB and K/9 were a little low, he was pretty consistent from start to finish last year. His WHIP was a little high, but he does such a good job controlling the running game I don't think it's a major concern. Bottom line: I don't think the AL has "figured him out".

Craig B - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:49 AM EST (#136302) #
Here's my amateurish breakdown of the Yankee financial quagmire, from an e-mail to Coach a few days ago...

Worst offseason? That was clinched the day that the Yankees announced they had an accounting loss of $85 million on top of a $40 million loss in 2004. (It'll be $85M to within a few bucks... whenever a loss range like 50-85M is announced it's always going to be the high end).

Seriously, New York are talking about cutting payroll back to $180M next year, but I think the cuts are going to need to go deeper than that. If the YES deal is undervalued and the "real" bottom line number is $40 million more (i.e. $100M a year instead of the reported $60M), they're only $30 million better off because they lose another $10M to revenue sharing. That still leaves them $55M in the red, which means cutting back the payroll $40 million in total (which with the 40% luxury tax gives them $56 million in cash back to get them to even). That $160 million payroll is probably about what they can afford on fundamentals, to be honest.

How do you cut $40 million from a payroll without having it show up somewhere? This is turning into a nightmare for NY; imagine facing all your players sliding leftward along the defensive spectrum just as you run into cash flow problems to replace them. Bubba Crosby in centerfield, Cano's solphomore jinx at second, a threadbare bench, Wil Nieves catching 40 games and Bernie Williams a $2 million part-time DH. Ow! If Giambi gets hurt again we're going to see a lot more Andy Phillips than anyone thought possible.

They've done well in bringing in Myers and Farnsworth, but two of Wang, Small and Chacon are going to be in the rotation again.

Anyway, that's why I think Clemens won't end up in NY. He made $18 million last season and I doubt he'd play for less than $15M this time around, given his superlative '05 performance. But the Yankees still need to cut almost $25 million to break even... signing Roger and doing nothing else (no CF, no backup C, no extra arm in the pen) will put them right back at a $200+ million payroll again.

No business that is the size of Yankee Global Enterprises can take these kinds of losses for long - maybe not even another year. Expect the Yankees to do whatever they can to save money this offseason.

Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:55 AM EST (#136303) #
Does anybody have any knowledge or even speculation as to what these new trade possibilities are? No idea. Some educated guesses:

1. Pat Burrell. He's expensive, but his salary could be offset against Batista/Lilly and/or Koskie. And they have Jason Michaels waiting in the wings to take over fulltime in LF. And Burrell bats right.

2. Jonny Gomes or Aubrey Huff. Tampa is crawling with OF, and is in desperate need of pitching. And maybe the Tampa braintrust is finally willing to cut a deal. Preference to Gomes who is (a) younger and (b) righthanded.

3. Adrian Beltre or Richie Sexson. Beltre would need to come with a few bags of cash. Once again, pitching would be what Seattle is after. To make room (and help offset salary) Hinske or Koskie would need to go the other way.

Newton - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:04 PM EST (#136305) #
My comment should be narrowed to reflect my true intention:

If we were offered the same package for Lilly or Batista we should trade Batista rather than Lilly.

Batista has proven he doesn't have the durability to pitch well for 200 innings nor the psyche or stuff to close. He is best utilized as a spot starter/set up man contributing 140-160 IP.

That said, I am not in favour of dealing Batista merely as a salary dump feeling he is currently a solid value.

To be honest ERA plus means very little to me. It is bandied about in an attempt to lend objectivity to a highly context oriented stat. ( ie. Batista's numbers were absolutely brutal for a closer last season, but would be considered solid for a starter)

Lilly has had better K rates and K-BB ratios than Batista and has pitched successfully as a starter in the AL in the past.






Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:06 PM EST (#136306) #
he hasn't received a single call about Lilly.

What's the source of this? I haven't seen it yet.

(Chacin) stands a pretty good chance of matching what you're going to get from Batista or Lilly, but for about 4MM less

I think Chacin is a volatile commodity, just like Batista and Lilly. His WHIP scares me and I don't think it's likely he'll bring it down a lot, so he'll need to continue to step up his game when there are men on base. I'm not convinced that's a repeatable skill - if he has the ability to step up his game at will, why doesn't he do it all the time?

I think Chacin is a much more attractive trade commodity than Batista or Lilly because of his age, his lefthandedness (wrt Batista), his low service time and corresponding low salary, his injury free history (wrt Lilly), and his shiny 13 wins and 'fortunate' 3.72 ERA in 2005. Thus, if someone wants to offer me significantly more for Chacin in a package with Hillenbrand or Hinske than they would for Batista or Lilly straight up, I take it.

As a fan though, I'll be happy if they can address their needs without trading Chacin. He's an easy guy to cheer for.

robertdudek - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:09 PM EST (#136307) #
Don't see the Mariners trading Sexson. Including enough cash along with Beltre to get something decent back would defeat the purpose of trading him. They will probably hope he rebounds and might shop him mid-season if they are out of the race.

I don't think the M's are all that far from contention personally.

Burrell's strikeouts are probably going to deter JP; don't see him as a good fit for us because of his defensive liabilities.

Why would TB trade Gomes at all? Huff shouldn't play the outfield and at DH he isn't enough of an upgrade over Shea to make the acquisition worthwhile.

Newton - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:15 PM EST (#136309) #
The answer: Sanders in RF, Durazo at DH. It has been written.
Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:24 PM EST (#136311) #
Why would TB trade Gomes at all? Huff shouldn't play the outfield and at DH he isn't enough of an upgrade over Shea to make the acquisition worthwhile.

If JP is that allergic to K's, then I doubt he would trade for Gomes either (who K's even more than Burrell).

At MLB and in the high minors, Tampa has way more hitting than pitching, so it stands to reason they are going to deal from a position of strength to shore up their weaknesses.

Gomes has enough liabilities (defense, K's) that he might be considered expendable. He's an ideal "imperfect" player for the Jays to pursue. He should not be that expensive to trade for, and his primary skill (hitting for power) fits the Jays needs precisely.

Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:28 PM EST (#136313) #
I'd be happy with Sanders and Durazo.

JP said early in the offseason that he wasn't interested in Huff - it was in the Star, but it was a direct quote so I believe it.

Jonny Gomes! What a great idea! Would you trade Aaron Hill for him?

Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:31 PM EST (#136314) #
Just realized that the way I said that might make it look like I was being sarcastic about Gomes. I wasn't, I'd love to see him in Toronto. The point of asking about Aaron Hill (despite him not being what Tampa specifically needs) is this: to get Gomes, it's gonna hurt.
Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:38 PM EST (#136316) #
Jonny Gomes! What a great idea! Would you trade Aaron Hill for him?

That's dripping with sarcasm, but I'll bite.

No, I would not trade Hill for him. And more to the point, why would Tampa ask for him? They currently have Lugo, and labouring under the misapprehension that B.J. Upton might some day be able to handle the position.

Realistically, how high are Tampa Bay on Gomes? Would they want more or less than what the Jays traded for Overbay? Would he be worth it? Is he a future star, or a strikeout-prone platoon hitter?

I'll cede the intellectual high ground to the regulars now, who I'm sure are desperate to say their $0.02...

Chuck - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:50 PM EST (#136318) #
signing Roger and doing nothing else (no CF, no backup C, no extra arm in the pen) will put them right back at a $200+ million payroll again.

They signed Stinnett to be the backup catcher. Hard to imagine that a guy who's going to be 36 in 2006, with a career OPS of 710, is an improvement over their old backup catcher.

robertdudek - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 12:53 PM EST (#136319) #
I assume that TB either views Gomes as one of the cornerstones of the franchise or as Grade A trading material (because of his age, price tag and performance last year). A lot depends on how Baldelli is able to come back from injury.

I think JP is wary enough of the strikeouts to not offer anything the Rays would want for Gomes. They wouldn't be interested in pitchers like Lilly or Batista, who won't be around when TB plans to contend. Alex Rios doesn't fit the Rays needs and they've got Cantu at 2nd so neither does O-Dog. So what could Toronto offer them?

Possibly Chacin and a grade A pitching prospect would sway the Rays, but again, I don't see JP giving up that much for a relatively unproven hitter of Gomes' TYPE.
Nick - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 01:11 PM EST (#136322) #
"What's the source of this? I haven't seen it yet."

Jonny - the source was Rutsey in the Toronto Sun.

http://torontosun.com/Sports/Baseball/2005/12/13/1350589-sun.html

It doesn't get any clearer than that.

I'm glad to see that JP diffused some of the O-Dog trade speculation. I think a lot of people here were panicking he would get traded for no good reason. JP's not stupid. Hudson is a very valuable player, especially in light of the acquisition of Burnett. I think Texas wanted Hudson and JP was not willing to give him up.
Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 01:32 PM EST (#136323) #
think JP is wary enough of the strikeouts to not offer anything the Rays would want for Gomes. They wouldn't be interested in pitchers like Lilly or Batista, who won't be around when TB plans to contend. Alex Rios doesn't fit the Rays needs and they've got Cantu at 2nd so neither does O-Dog. So what could Toronto offer them?

Those are good observations. Lilly and Batista are of use to teams that are ready to contend right now. Instead of concentrating on who has the bat that Toronto wants, it might be more interesting to look at which contenders might be looking to add another pitcher.

Off the top of my head, these "contending" teams look like they are in need of pitching help:

HOU: Pettitte/Oswalt/Backe/???/???
STL: Carpenter/Mulder/Suppan/Marquis/???
ATL: looking for a closer
WAS: Livan/Patterson/Armas/Drese/???
SD: Peavy/Eaton/Williams/Park/???
CLE: Sabathia/Lee/Westbrook/Elarton/???
TEX: Young/Padilla/????

Texas is such a natural fit. With Diamond, Volquez, and Danks about a year away, they could really use some stopgap solutions to plug into their rotation. If the Rangers won't part with Wilkerson, maybe the Jays should cut a deal for prospects, and then peddle them elsewhere for that big bat they're after?

Mark - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 02:06 PM EST (#136325) #
You can add Byrd to Cleveland and Reyes to St. Louis to fill out their rotations. I think STL wanted to move Marquis and bring in someone else.
ayjackson - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 02:38 PM EST (#136329) #
Rotoworld seems to think the Giants are shopping Pedro Feliz. Perhaps this is one of the new developments JP was referring to. Obviously Pedro would move back to outfield.

SF could bring in a third baseman (either in trade of Bill Mueller).

Both Hillenbrand and Feliz are going into contract years.
JaysNJets - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 02:49 PM EST (#136331) #
On December 8, Rotoworld via the Beaver County Times (insert juvenile joke here) reported that the Pirates had interest in Alex Rios. Apparently JP wanted Paul Maholm but the Bucs countered with Tom Gorzelanny. I don't know alot abount Gorzelanny but BA rates him as Pittsburgh's #3 prospect, ahead of Maholm.

http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_news.asp?sport=MLB&majteam=TOR

Might this be one of the 'new' trade ideas JP is considering. Gorzelanny is left handed and, again according to BA, he has an outstanding fastball. Minor league stats from the Baseball Cube can be found here:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/tom-gorzelanny.shtml
Craig B - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 03:00 PM EST (#136334) #
Oh, by the way... I had a dream last night (not about the Jays or baseball) but at one point I excitedly informed a friend over the phone that the Jays had traded for Hank Blalock. Make of it what you will. Although the shooting started shortly after that phone call...
robertdudek - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 03:07 PM EST (#136337) #
I'm confident that Diamond will be in the Rangers' starting rotation by June.
BCMike - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 03:11 PM EST (#136338) #
On December 8, Rotoworld via the Beaver County Times (insert juvenile joke here) reported that the Pirates had interest in Alex Rios. Apparently JP wanted Paul Maholm but the Bucs countered with Tom Gorzelanny. I don't know alot abount Gorzelanny but BA rates him as Pittsburgh's #3 prospect, ahead of Maholm.

I think that if JP is moving Rios he would want ML ready talent, and obviously a RF whether that comes from a Rios trade or somewhere else. It wouldn't make much sense for him to trade Rios for something we have in abundance.

Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 03:42 PM EST (#136342) #
I think that if JP is moving Rios he would want ML ready talent, and obviously a RF whether that comes from a Rios trade or somewhere else. It wouldn't make much sense for him to trade Rios for something we have in abundance

Nothing stopping the Jays from making multiple moves to get where they want to go. Part of the problem they are having is bad matchups between teams that (a) can use their veteran pitchers and hitters and (b) teams that have a power hitter for sale.

Kingsley Zissou - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 04:19 PM EST (#136353) #
I had Pedro Feliz on one of my fantasy teams last year, and he's the most hot-and-cold player I've ever encountered. His streaks are ridiculous, both ways.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 04:41 PM EST (#136356) #
With the hitting market being so bare, I think Ricciardi should rekindle the Batista/Bradley idea that was floating around, if in fact it was legitimate to begin with. Bradley, despite his attitude, it probably the best the Jays could do as far as hitters in this market. You would just have to hope that Hudson and Wells rub off on him positively. If guys like Reggie Sanders are the best alternative available (and he's apparently looking for 2-3 years), then I trade Batista for Bradley in a heartbeat and hope for the best. You can't teach talent.

Not going to happen, unfortunately.
Leigh - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 05:06 PM EST (#136357) #
I'm confident that Diamond will be in the Rangers' starting rotation by June.

Is this a trade prediction? Will we have to throw in Ace to land Wilkerson?

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 05:34 PM EST (#136359) #
I'm sorry, Leigh, I don't understand the reference? Thomas Diamond is scheduled to start the year at OKC and should be in Texas by the All-Star break.
Tom Servo - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 05:36 PM EST (#136360) #
Milton Bradley has been traded!

According to a Fox Sports report, Bradley has been dealt to the Oakland Athletics for a minor-league prospect.

From tsn.ca
HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 05:39 PM EST (#136361) #
Mick,

Leigh was referring to the old female Jays maskot named "Diamond". She is no longer with the team, and Leigh thought you were just making fun of the Rangers.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 05:44 PM EST (#136363) #
"According to a Fox Sports report, Bradley has been dealt to the Oakland Athletics for a minor-league prospect."

Does Beane always have to swoop in and acquire the undervalued high upside players for dirtcheap?

Bradley, headache and all, would have looked nice in one of the corners for the Jays.

Oh well.
Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 05:56 PM EST (#136365) #
It should be interesting to see how the coaching staff and management in Oakland attempt to handle Bradley.

He's got some serious emotional and anger management problems he needs to address if he wants to get on with his career. And it's not like LA, Cleveland and Montreal were intentionally trying to make life miserable for him. He just failed to deal with the same circumstances that everyone else on those rosters managed to deal with.
Nolan - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 06:17 PM EST (#136367) #
"I'm a fan of Google (especially Gmail and Google maps), but I'm also a fan of Yahoo and I think the Google search engine is overrated in comparisons with Yahoo... so I just Yahooed "2005 baseball free agents", and waddyaknow... the exact same site comes up as result #3."

Yes. After I made my little post and 6-4-3 had pointed the site out, I followed his link and realized that I'd actually already been to that site and couldn't find the list they said they had. So....I'm inept and I look dumb, nothing new.
Ron - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 06:25 PM EST (#136368) #
I'm glad Bradley went to the A's and not the Jays.

I would have a tough time rooting for the Jays if Bradley was on the team.

This isn't a guy that made one mistake and moved on. He has a troubled past.

Besides his career numbers are nothing but average.
Jabes - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 06:35 PM EST (#136369) #
Does anybody realize how good this A's team is going to be?

Their pitching is going to be dominant; starter to bullpen. Their defense may be the best in baseball; their isn't a weak fielder on the team. And their offense, which wasn't bad to begin with, just got better.

If Rich Harden comes back healthy, I think we are looking at a 100+ win team, even in that division.
Jacko - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 06:42 PM EST (#136370) #
Besides his career numbers are nothing but average.

This is inaccurate. His numbers are quite good for a CF. In fact, over the past 3 years, his OPS+ (park adjusted, 100 = league average) has averaged out to 125. Better than Vernon Wells, I might add (he's around 120 or so).

I still think he's too big a risk to disrupt team chemistry. Oakland has gotten themselves both a terrific bargain and a ticking timebomb. The also have the best defensive outfield in baseball now.

DepecheJay - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 06:44 PM EST (#136371) #
Yup, the A's will win around 100 games, win the divison, and then get to the playoffs...

And then CHOKE again!

3 things you can count on in life:

1) Death
2) Taxes
3) Billy Beane's boys CHOKING HARD in October baseball
Ron - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 06:51 PM EST (#136373) #
Bradley's career line is .269/.350/.426

He's also only played in 317 games the past 3 seasons.

This is the same player the Tribe were looking to get rid of after he had a .321/.421/.501 season.

Off the top of my head, there's nobody else out there that I would least like to see in a Jays uni.
nicton - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 06:57 PM EST (#136374) #
That leads to the great question of: better to lose in playoffs or finish 3rd in your division??? Atlanta / Oakland or Toronto?? Give me the playoffs...
DepecheJay - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 07:01 PM EST (#136376) #
I thought the point was to actually WIN the World Series? At least Toronto has 2. Obviously, you aren't going to win it every season. However, at some point people have to stop giving teams like Atlanta and Oakland so much credit. Yeah they are constantly contenders, but they never make anything out of it!
Wildrose - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 07:04 PM EST (#136377) #
Well nobody could ever accuse Billy Beane of not being bold. Personally I'd be happy if the Jays just made the playoffs.
Jim - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 07:27 PM EST (#136378) #
Don't know if anyone posted the details:

The Oakland A's today announced that they have acquired outfielder Milton Bradley and infielder Antonio Perez from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for outfielder Andre Ethier.

That's from an email I got from OaklandAthletics.com
timpinder - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 07:41 PM EST (#136380) #
I'm glad Bradley's not coming to Toronto. I think that team chemistry is too important.

However, Bradley, Garciapparra, Mench and Wilkerson are apparently out of the mix. I know it's early, but I'm starting to worry that Rios is going to be batting 7th behind the DH, Hillenbrand. With Pittsburg interested in Rios and Atlanta interested in Batista, hopefully J.P. can work something out.
mathesond - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 07:46 PM EST (#136381) #
I thought the point was to actually WIN the World Series? At least Toronto has 2.

Well, if you're going to include previous regimes and rosters completely different than today's, you might as mention that Oakland has won 4 WS.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 08:43 PM EST (#136382) #
Andre Ethier is a pretty fine outfield prospect. Probably a B, if you're feeling generous a B+. A year older than Adam Lind, but has succeeded at double A with not as good strike zone control, but more power.
Jabes - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 09:58 PM EST (#136389) #
I'm wondering why JP didn't take a shot at Bradley. You'd have to think the Dodgers would have been interested in a swap of Bradley for Rios. I don't really buy the "he's bad for team chemistry" stuff. The road to mediocrity is paved with that kind of thinking.

I wonder if he and Beane have an unspoken agreement not to vye for the same players.
Nick - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:08 PM EST (#136391) #
"...stop giving teams like Atlanta and Oakland so much credit"

That comment is so ridiculous that it's self-evident and not worth the time to write out a pointed response as to how wrong it is. If anything, Atlanta and Oakland (especially Atlanta) do not get nearly enough credit for their accomplishments.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:09 PM EST (#136392) #
Milton Bradley and Howard Johnson are linked forever in my mind.
Matthew E - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:19 PM EST (#136396) #
What about R.J. Reynolds? And Ronald McDonald?
Jonny German - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 10:39 PM EST (#136399) #
That comment is so ridiculous that it's self-evident and not worth the time to write out a pointed response as to how wrong it is

Exactly. But I can't resist saying: Depeche, if you know why Atlanta and Oakland have been so much better in the regular season than in the playoffs, why are you yakking here rather than making millions as a pro sporst consultant?

DepecheJay - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:14 PM EST (#136402) #
Geez guys, take it easy. I have my opinions, and one of them is that the A's and Braves should actually win a world series or atleast make it deep into the playoffs (The Braves have actually gone but haven't quite been able to win) before everyone calls Billy Beane the greatest human being ever.

More of a Braves fan then I am an A's fan. The Beane hype sickens me.
timpinder - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:16 PM EST (#136403) #
Jabes,
There's a litany of examples in professional sports of teams who were great on paper, but never played well as a team. That's why "character" players are brought in by GM's to get the right chemistry in the locker room and on the field/ice/court etc... I think J.P. thought Milton Bradley's attitude would be detrimental to the team. I agree, and I'm glad he's going to Oakland.

It's just my opinion, but that's why I would have loved to see a digger like Wilkerson in Toronto. Milton Bradley, no thanks.
timpinder - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:24 PM EST (#136404) #
DepecheJay,
If Billy Beane had a budget to work with that was even league average, the A's would be World Series Champions IMO. Because of financial restictions he can't even keep any of his players, save Chavez, yet the A's compete every year.
Fawaz - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:26 PM EST (#136405) #
The 1995 Braves didn't 'quite win'?

You are, of course, right. Beane has made a career of promoting himself (be it by writing Moneyball or by leaving when offered for the one of baseball's glam jobs), and his teams have been pathetic. The measure of a good team is not how it performs over 162 games, but how it performs over a 5-game set. I mean, really, a truly great gm could have overcome that miracle cut-off play by Jeter.
DepecheJay - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:36 PM EST (#136408) #
Ahh, the arrogance sickens me.

The Mariners a few years ago would have gone down as one of the greatest teams in ML history had they won the World Series that season.

Rather, they are just a team that had a phenomenal season and nothing more.

And why do people always feel the need to stand up for Beane when it comes to how much money the A's have to spend? It is what it is so deal with it and move on. For years people have bitched about how if he had league average $ the A's would finally have won. What's the point in playing then? It is what it is.
VBF - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:49 PM EST (#136409) #
We've had this discussion before, and although I believe that the world series is a crapshoot among the 8 teams, should we write it off completely as such a thing?

I don't think you can hold a GM accountable for playoff performance. A manager, yes, but not a GM.
VBF - Tuesday, December 13 2005 @ 11:51 PM EST (#136410) #
And to add to that, Depeche, why do you blame Beane for the A's lack of playoff success? What did he do/not do?
Jacko - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:11 AM EST (#136413) #
And why do people always feel the need to stand up for Beane when it comes to how much money the A's have to spend? It is what it is so deal with it and move on. For years people have bitched about how if he had league average $ the A's would finally have won. What's the point in playing then? It is what it is.

Personally, it's fun to cheer for Beane:

(a) he's smart (b) he's got balls

He makes his share of mistakes, but he makes enough smart moves (draft, trades, free agents) to keep his team competitive on a relatively small budget. And some of those trades (like the Mulder and Hudson deals) were extrememly unpopular.

If you're trying to claim the emporer has no clothes because he has no WS titles, I call bull. If it was an easy task to field a competitive team year in year out, then wouldn't everyone be doing it?

For an exercise in frustration, try cheering for KC, Pittsburgh, Tampa, or Detroit and see how much fun it is. They would be lucky to have someone like Beane running the show.

Jacko - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:22 AM EST (#136414) #
Geez guys, take it easy. I have my opinions, and one of them is that the A's and Braves should actually win a world series or atleast make it deep into the playoffs (The Braves have actually gone but haven't quite been able to win) before everyone calls Billy Beane the greatest human being ever.

BTW, you forgot about this:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1995.shtml

Gitz - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:57 AM EST (#136416) #
Jacko, it is fun to root for Beane -- and anyone -- who "has balls." But being aggressive is not the same thing as being smart, nor is, necessarily, doing things that would be construed as "ballsy." By some measures, it takes balls for the Tigers to sign a 38-year-old "proven closer" and give him $11 million for a job that, by most accounts, Fernando Rodney could have done for 1/100 of the price. No adulation for Dave Dombrowski? Signing 41-year-old Roberto Hernandez at $2.75 million to close games is certainly ballsy. Where's the love for Dave Littlefield? And on and on we could go.

Personally I think Bradley is both average and overrated, and he is likely to put up disappointng numbers, even for playing at the coliseum. That is, provided he can stay healthy -- which is far from a sure thing. And at any rate for players with a bad past like Bradley, "average" is not good enough. You've got to be a superstar to carry the heavy baggage, a distinction even the most enthusiastic Beane worshipers would be hard-pressed to prove about Bradley.
DepecheJay - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:16 AM EST (#136417) #
Yes they won once but they have also dissapointed so many other times.

As far as Beane is concerned, it's all about production, as it is with everything in sports. Sure the guy hasn't had the most money to work with, but until he wins it all he will always be questioned, and rightfully so in my opinion.

I just hate seeing people automatically assume that he got such a great deal with EVERYTHING just because he's Billy Beane. Gitz is an A's fan and even he sees that this might not be the best of moves. If J.P. had made this deal, he would have hell to pay and so there's a double standard with Beane, I think.

To constantly spew crap about how he's done so much with so little money is just tiresome. It's never going to change so just leave it at that. It is what it is. When the jobs that guys like Cashman, Williams, aren't given as much credit as they should be because of how much money they have to work with, that's unfair in my opinion. Then Epstein gets praised like crazy because he's a stats guy, despite also have large sums of $ to work with. Beane's teams have yet to be truly complete teams. Whether it's the hitting that drags the team down, baserunning in key situations, stuff like that, they just haven't been able to come through. I think an equal amount of blame should go around because if you really want to blame the manager, who hired that manager? That's also a part of a GM's job.

Beane's a good GM, no doubt, but until he wins something, let's stop treating him like he's Brian Cashman.
rtcaino - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:21 AM EST (#136418) #
That said, for a B level prospect, MB is a solid pick-up. Intangibles notwithstanding, he seemed undervalued for his career production. If his production is low and he causes problems, you don’t loose much. If he keeps his head on straight, and posts an OPS near 850, I’m sure Beane could live with that.

I enjoy following Beane and his A’s. His interviews over at Athletics Nation are great reads year after year.

I can’t blame people who feel like DepecheJay: “Ahh, the arrogance sickens me.”

However, I agree more with the Jacko’s line of thought: (a) he's smart (b) he's got balls

Someone else who strikes people as arrogant is our own JP Riccardi. Hopefully, he can live up to his former boss as one who fields a competitive team year after year. As a Jay fan that is really all I hope for. A good interview here and there never hurts also.

Speaking of interviews, are we sitting down with JP this year?
DepecheJay - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:29 AM EST (#136419) #
When I said "the arrogance sickens me", I was referring to Fawaz' post, not Billy Beane.

I could care less if Beane is arrogant, JP is arrogant and he's the man. He'd pimpslap Richard Griffin like Chuck Norris if he had to!
Twilight - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:55 AM EST (#136420) #
Now that I'd like to see in the middle of a press conference!

"Alright Griffin let's go! Come on!"
DepecheJay - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:19 AM EST (#136421) #
J.P. is hardcore though. I don't even think he'd warn Griffin. I think he'd just step down from the podium, say "excuse me one second", walk right over to Griffin and pimpslap him upside the face.

O-Dog, who of course would be watching on, would then say "I knew he was a pimp!"

Then the truth would be revealed that J.P. is a pimp and O-Dog is not only a gold glove level 2nd basemen, but a prophet as well.
Ron - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 04:01 AM EST (#136422) #
Dayn Perry thinks the Jays are AL contenders now.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5166646
Michael - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 04:26 AM EST (#136423) #
The As, on a small payroll, have done the following since Beane took over:

74 Wins
87 Wins
91 Wins
102 Wins
103 Wins
96 Wins
91 Wins
88 Wins

for an average of 91.5 wins a season. If you give him his first year (I.e., the first year where it is hard for him to implement his changes or make it into his team) the average goes up to 94 wins a season. 94 wins a season over a 7 year run is really, really good even if he were on a huge budget. On a small budget it is even more impressive. And if you consider the team he took over for had only 65 wins the year before it is even more impressive.

But Beane isn't by any means the only super impressive GM. The most impressive IMO is obviously John Schuerholz. Since he's taken over for the Braves they've done:

94 wins
98 wins
104 wins
68 wins (short season, equivalent to 97 wins over 162 games)
90 wins (short season, equivalent to 101 wins over 162 games)
96 wins
101 wins
106 wins
103 wins
95 wins
88 wins
101 wins
101 wins
96 wins
90 wins

Nothing much, just 15 seasons averaging 98 wins a 162 game season. How confident are you if you pick the Mets this year? How many people have said "this is the years the Braves don't win" and been proven wrong?

Brian Cashman doesn't suck either as he's gone

114 wins
98 wins
87 wins
95 wins
103 wins
101 wins
101 wins
95 wins

That gives Cashman 8 years averaging 99 wins. I wouldn't give him full credit for the 114 wins though as he became the GM in February of that year (although he was AGM before so it isn't like he was uninvolved). If you drop the high first year his 7 year average is "only" 97 wins. That is very good. He has two big knocks against him when comparing him to other teams: One, the team he took over for was already very good and won 92 and then 96 wins the 2 years before he took over; Two, he is allowed the biggest payroll in baseball. How much you think those knocks should count against him is up to you, but I think you can't totally ignore them.

Some people consider Terry Ryan and the Twins as the anti-moneyball force showing that small market teams can compete while being old school. But Ryan and the twins have the following record since Ryan took over:

56 wins
78 wins
68 wins
70 wins
63 wins
69 wins
85 wins
94 wins
90 wins
92 wins
83 wins

Even if you only consider the last 5 years that still isn't averaging 90 wins a season. He gets the Beane bonus of taking over for a bad team and running on a small budget (although the Twins arguably have a worse division over this span), but he clearly hasn't done as much of Beane. Ryan may well be a good GM overall, but the record isn't the anti-Beane record people think.

Another sort of large market team that has had recent success is St. Louis under Walt Jocketty. They've gone:

62 wins (short season, 70 win equivalent)
88 wins
73 wins
83 wins
75 wins
95 wins
93 wins
97 wins
85 wins
105 wins
100 wins

That works out to 11 seasons averaging 88 wins. Drop the first seasons and it is 89 win average. Look only over the past 7 seasons to compare to 7 seasons of Beane and Cashman and you get a 93 win average. Not bad.

The other bay area team has had success under Brian Sabean (or should I say under Barry Bonds?). Since Sabean started the giants have gone:

90 wins
89 wins
86 wins
97 wins
90 wins
95 wins
100 wins
91 wins
75 wins

for an average of 90 wins a season. Not bad, although if you could ever say a GM has been helped by having the good luck to have a star player (or trio of star pitchers) I think the Giants under Barry Bonds has to be that case (and the 75 wins last year underscores the case) - afterall over the 8 years (not counting last year) in question Bonds has averaged 111.3 VORP. Even counting last year he's averaged 99.8 VORP. Even if you think his defense in the field costs 9.8 runs a season you are still looking at Bonds being worth 9 wins a season [including last season in the average!], which makes Sabean's record one of being able to build a .500 ballclub plus having the good fortune of having Barry Bonds already on the team.

The last I'll look at is Ken Williams with the White Sox. He's given a team that won 95 games the season before he started and he then went:

83 wins
81 wins
86 wins
83 wins
99 wins

Time will tell, but one of those numbers is not like the others, one of those numbers does not belong. We probably need more years here to tell but a 5 year average of 86 wins is above average, but not spectacular. Even dropping the first year only gets you to a 87 win average.

So I think Schuerholz, Beane, Jocketty, and Cashmen have the best track records of GM (probably in that order for me) and deserve all the praise they get as being good at their job, especially compared to all their peers. I don't think Ryan and Williams are on that level - although they have results which are clearly above average. And depending on how much credit you give Sabean for having/keeping Bonds he might be in Ryan and Williams's level, but he clearly isn't in that top 4.

I also think the painting any one who thinks Beane is a good GM as an unthinking hero worshiper is beating a dead strawman (to mix metaphores). Beane has made several bad moves and bad decisions (long term deals for TLong and Hatteberg come to mind), but he's made a lot of good ones too, and if you are right more often than you are wrong you come out ahead.
Fawaz - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 07:13 AM EST (#136425) #
"Ahh, the arrogance sickens me."

And mindless devotion to the idea that unless you win a ring (in a year other than 1995), you haven't done anything sickens me.

People get married to things like that without considering the implications. Championships are great; they're fun for the fans and for the players and I'm happy to admit that I think they're more than just a crapshoot and it really does take something extra to win them (I'm a Jays fan, after all)...from the people at the games and at a particular moment in time. If you think a GM should be able to refine his decision-making down to picking a manager based on what he thinks he might do in game 4 of a playoff series or signing a player because he's too clutch to not drive in a run in game5, we're never going to agree. Some teams probably do consider the playoffs in their roster construction in that they look to line-up the best pitching and defence for a short series (we keep hearing that about the Burnett signing), and the Braves and A's have had a little of that over the years. I'm curious though, did Cashman make a make a bad move in trading for A-Rod because he's been a playoff 'choker'?

I didn't mention payroll, but I do think it is an issue when judging how someone performs in a role that is largely contingent on asset-allocation. To keep a team in contention while watching MVPs leave for more money and trading your stud pitchers because you know you won't be able to afford them is a lot more impressive to me than the Yankees or Red Sox (and I wasn't one to praise Epstein, and I suspect most of the ink he got was because a) he's young b) he was in Boston and c) his team won a championship for a major market where previous incarnations failed - what kind of idiot GM hires a manager that lets Bill Buckner field like that?) outbidding other teams for what is widely understood to be premium talent. It takes skill, to be sure, but to me it's the difference between predicting that Curt Schilling will have a great year (with the downside being that he merely be good) and that Dan Haren will have a good year (with the downside being that he could flame out completely).

As for the Mariners, I believe they had a great season and it's people like you that remember otherwise, it seems. I don't really see the comparison, since we're discussing the Braves' and Athletics' prolonged success without succeeding, not just one season of winning failure.

I understand you're not saying Beane is a bad GM and that your reaction is likely more a response to perceived overpraise for what he and Scheurholtz have done. I just think you're severely undervaluing their accomplishments.
Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 07:50 AM EST (#136426) #
Dayn Perry thinks the Jays are AL contenders now.

Reading that felt really good. One thing that Perry points out (that I hadn't thought of) if that Overbay's presence will help the development and confidence of Russ Adams. Perry reasons that, because Overbay is particularly adept at picking balls from the dirt and stretching, errant throws from Adams will result in fewer errors and baserunners. What do people think of that idea?

Oh, and Billy Beane is the best.

Pistol - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 08:25 AM EST (#136427) #
I thought the Adams point in the Perry column was a bit of a reach. I never thought that his problems were because Hillenbrand and/or Hinske had problems receiving the ball. It seemed to me that most of the errors were either balls that totally sailed away or booted. Is there a way to look that up?

He did present a nice case of why the Jays should hold onto Hudson thought.
Craig B - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 08:40 AM EST (#136429) #
Adams's errors were evenly split 13-13 between throws and boots. My subjective impression was that most of the bad throws were early in the season (and many, probably most, were throws that sailed), and the boots came late; I could be wrong about this but it seemed to me that once he started being more deliberate with his throws, both his ability to make the spectacular play (which he did a lot in the first half) and his ability to pick up the routine grounder suffered a lot.
Craig B - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 08:43 AM EST (#136430) #
which makes Sabean's record one of being able to build a .500 ballclub plus having the good fortune of having Barry Bonds already on the team

Barry was also the highest-paid player in baseball, or one of the highest-paid, during that entire stretch. That severely limits the Giants' payroll flexibility. Don't be fooled; Sabean's been a pretty darned good GM, though maybe not in the class of the guy across San Francisco Bay...

mikerich - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 08:55 AM EST (#136432) #
The Mets have expressed interest in Toronto righty Miguel Batista, but the Blue Jays aren't sure they'll trade him.

Source: NYPost

Has the market for Batista dried up that much that JP wouldn't trade him at all?

huckamaniac - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 09:03 AM EST (#136434) #
Apparently Javier Vazquez has been traded to the White Sox for Orlando Hernandez, Luis Vizcaino and a prospect (pending physicals. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2258626
Pistol - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 09:13 AM EST (#136435) #
From the JP interview on WFAN over the weekend he said he'd only trade Batista for the 'right player' and that he wasn't going to trade him just to trade him.

From Blair's latest:

In an interesting twist, Ricciardi is now openly talking about the possibility of keeping Batista on the roster as a reliever. It might simply be a ploy to talk up his value - but it could also be a reflection of Ricciardi's belief that there are worse ways to spend $4.7 million than on a pitcher who had 30 saves in 2005 - messy as some of them were - and could give the team 200 innings as a starter.

"He has too good an arm just to trade him," Ricciardi said of Batista.

Unspoken is the thought that Batista might be a more tradable commodity out of spring training.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports

Flex - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 09:35 AM EST (#136438) #
While we're tipping readers to pieces on other sites, I wanted to mention the transcript of an interview with Gibbons over at Inside the Dome. Nothing at all surprising there except for one little bit I found interesting. Talking about the chances for improvement next year, Gibbons said, among other things, this:

"We're also banking on a young guy like an Adams. We still don't know what's going to happen with where he fits."

That's the first indication I've seen that they're unsure about Adams as a full-time SS. I find that strangely encouraging.
Fawaz - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 09:51 AM EST (#136442) #
OK, so maybe Scheurholtz isn't that great. At least not as good as Schuerholz. That's what happens when you check your spelling against someone else that can't spell.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:01 AM EST (#136445) #
Studes did a recent study on HR/fly rates last year. The theory is that unexplicably high rates have a significant luck component, and that pitchers with this quality should be expected to improve. At the top of the list this year was Javier Vazquez. Kenny Williams, closet sabermetrician?
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:12 AM EST (#136448) #
Guillermo Quiroz is off to a rough start in the Venezuelan Winter League hitting .184 in 49 ABs with no power and an unfriendly W/K ratio. You can follow the details in Spanish at www.lvbp.com.
Jacko - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:18 AM EST (#136449) #
I wasn't one to praise Epstein, and I suspect most of the ink he got was because a) he's young b) he was in Boston and c) his team won a championship for a major market where previous incarnations failed

Which isn't really fair either. Epstein had a nice budget to work with, but also made some very smart moves that had nothing to do with his budget advantage.

  • signed David Ortiz for 1.25 MM after the Twins cut him loose after 2002 season (any GM could have had him)
  • in 2004, traded his most popular player (Garciaparra) to shore up his primary weakness (infield defense)
  • played by his own rules and put in a waiver claim on Kevin Millar after he was sold to a Japanese team
  • claimed Bronson Arroyo off waivers
Skills - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:23 AM EST (#136451) #
As per our earlier conversation about Dayn Perry, here is a perfect example of what I was talking about http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5166646. Not to mention the fact that he seems to be one of the only writers(outside of Toronto) willing to write about the Jays.
Fawaz - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:24 AM EST (#136452) #
I agree that Epstein made some incredibly savvy moves, but I'm inclined to believe that those moves wouldn't have made him the near-iconic boy wonder ESPN makes him out to be if not for the factors I outlined. I worded my sentiment poorly, which is to say he's good, but I wouldn't put him in the same class as the guys in Oakland and Atlanta and I don't know that he's a lot better than Kenny Williams.
Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:39 AM EST (#136455) #
JC Bradbury has posted this piece over at Hardball Times, in which he writes about his PrOPS, or Projected OPS, system.

The method for generating PrOPS involves using batted-ball data, along with a few other important factors, to predict the offensive output of players using linear regression. The projections are thus based on the way players hit the ball and not actual outcomes. PrOPS credits players who hit the ball similarly with outcomes typical of all players of the comparable hitting profiles. This method strips out some of the luck that pollutes outcome-based hitting statistics, because no player receives direct credit for the actual outcomes at the plate. [per Bradbury, linked above.]

He goes on to explain how he has used some other projection techniques in order to project PrOPS for the upcoming season. I love love love process (i.e. not outcome) based stats, and this article is an example of why THT is a leader in that area.

At any rate, I took a look at his 2006 PrOPS for the Jays, and compared them to actual OPS from last season. If his numbers come to fruition, we are looking at improvements from (in order of most to least improvement): Adams, Hill, Overbay, Zaun, Koskie, Wells and Rios. Conversely, we will see a decline in the performance of (again, in order of degree): Catalanotto, Hillenbrand, Hinske, Johnson and Hudson. It's worth noting that the projected decline for Hudson is insignificant (-.005 OPS), and ditto for Rios' improvement. The sharpest changes are the declines by Catalanotto and Hillenbrand (-.103 and -.050, respectively), and the improvement for Adams (+.049).

2006 PrOPS Jays top five: Overbay, .831; Wells, .793; Adams, .756; Koskie, .748; Hill, .746.

Jonny German - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:41 AM EST (#136456) #
played by his own rules and put in a waiver claim on Kevin Millar after he was sold to a Japanese team

You count this as a positive? I mean, sure it made sense to acquire Millar, but the way it was done smacked of amateurism and lack of preparation as far as I'm concerned.

Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:42 AM EST (#136457) #
I don't know that he's a lot better than Kenny Williams.

Look, we all go overboad and say things that we don't mean from time to time.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 10:57 AM EST (#136458) #
I agree that Adams, Hill and Overbay are likely to improve from their 2005 performance in 2006 and that Catalanotto and Hillenbrand are likely to decline. This is mostly a function of the age and 3 year performance numbers.

I do not however agree with the notion that all hitting performance above and beyond what might be expected from ball in play and HR, W and K rate (i.e. $HR, $W, $K, $GB, $LD, $FB) information is fluke. Long live Wee Willie Keeler! Viva Matty Alou!
DepecheJay - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 11:11 AM EST (#136459) #
Leigh, what do you have against the White Sox? They are just coming off a dominating playoff performance and you haven't said a good thing about them yet.

Not a Kenny Williams fan, eh?
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 11:43 AM EST (#136463) #
Speaking of Kenny Williams' hidden sabermetric longings, Javier Vazquez also was one of the league trailers in bullpen support last year. That probably won't happen again on the South Side.
Ducey - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 11:45 AM EST (#136464) #
If you are talking Epstein don't forget to add the 4yr/$40 million deal for Edgar Renteria to his resume. The Sox are now paying him $13 million to play in Atlanta. That is one deal that did not work for him.

JP has said he is looking for a RH bat. It seems that the market for right handed power hitters has dried up a little or that teams are asking too much for average guys. How about Sammy Sosa? (ducking out of the way) He hit .288/.370/.471 with 14BB/ 22K in 104 AB last year vs. lefties. He has a name which might sell a few tickets in Toronto. He could play a little RF. He could come off the bench and swing for the fences... He should come cheap.
Ducey - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 11:50 AM EST (#136465) #
On the other hand, Hill hit .298/.387/.433 vs lefties and he would come even cheaper.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 11:51 AM EST (#136466) #
Sammy Sosa as a right-handed DH at $1-$2 million maybe. I'd rather have Matt LeCroy.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 11:54 AM EST (#136467) #
Happy Birthday to another favourite of mine, Shaun Marcum.
Jacko - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 11:58 AM EST (#136468) #
You count this as a positive? I mean, sure it made sense to acquire Millar, but the way it was done smacked of amateurism and lack of preparation as far as I'm concerned.

That's certainly one way of looking at it.

Epstein tried to acquire Millar first before the Marlins sold him to Chinuchi. Marlins turned down his offer because they figured they could get more cash from Chinuchi.

However, the Marlins needed Millar's permission to send him to Japan, and that there was some question about them misleading Millar about how much interest there was from other MLB teams in acquiring him. Hence, the waiver claim.

The biggest risk Epstein took in exploiting the loophole was being blackballed by his fellow GM's for breaking the gentleman's rule governing player sales to Japan. However, it looks like everyone got over that pretty fast.

Blue in SK - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 12:02 PM EST (#136469) #
With Bradely going to the A's, does that now preclude them signing Thomas? More as a budgetary constraint, not because I thought that they might play the Big Hurt in the field. I believe the A's were the front runner for Thomas' services, so perhaps JP might want to re-explore that option.
Chuck - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 12:06 PM EST (#136470) #
From the JP interview on WFAN over the weekend he said he'd only trade Batista for the 'right player' and that he wasn't going to trade him just to trade him.

This sounds like the requisite GM posturing, just to keep the asking price for Batista up. And if so, you can't blame Ricciardi for acting that way. I'm sure that given Batista's anticipated diminished role on the 2006 staff (70 low leverage relief innings) and his much higher potential utility on another team (160-180 starting innings) that he's going to get moved.

Hell, Brian Cashman keeps going on about Bubba Crosby being a viable alternative for CF when no one on the planet believes him. He might as well be talking about John Fogerty (put him in coach, he's ready to play center field).

Jonny German - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 12:12 PM EST (#136471) #
Epstein tried to acquire Millar first before the Marlins sold him to Chinuchi. Marlins turned down his offer because they figured they could get more cash from Chinuchi.

I'd never heard of this before, it certainly changes the picture. My apologies to Theo.

Now you'll tell me how Millar isn't actually bush league for reneging on his contract with Chinuchi, and giving some bogus line about not feeling safe in Japan.

NDG - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 12:22 PM EST (#136472) #
I thought the point was to actually WIN the World Series?

I'm going to use this comment to segway into another sport ..

There's been a lot of talk about the NFL Colts possibly going 16-0 this year. However, now that they have home field locked up, many people think they may be vulnerable since they should be resting players for the playoffs (as DepecheJay would say "the point is to win the Super Bowl").

One of the talking heads on the week-end brought up another viewpoint though. To paraphrase "One team wins a championship every year, but NO team has ever gone 16-0, and doing that would guarantee their place in history".

At first I thought it was a stupid statement, but the more I think about it, the more I agree. What do you guys think, do you risk your starters (and possible Super Bowl) for the record?

Jim - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 12:57 PM EST (#136473) #
So I guess that means that Billy Koch isn't a favourite of yours?

:)
VBF - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 12:59 PM EST (#136474) #
No you don't but I might consider it if the game was at home (See Clemens, Pinball, 2004). While going 16-0 probbaly makes the season more remembered than a common Superbowl (which happens to a team every year), the whole goal of the season since training camp was to win a Superbowl, not a perfec record. Everything that every player worked hard for had the goal of winning a superbowl in mind, and that was the main goal before anyone started to realize that the Colts might have a chance to go perfect.

Throw in the second strings!

As for Beane, you simply CANNOT blame him or hold him accountable for playoff misfortunes as its such a crapshoot, however I don't view the A's any more special (actually I view any team that's gone further than them in better regard) than any other team that's managed to win a world series in the last 10 or so years regardless of how they've done it. Life isn't fair.
Jim - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:02 PM EST (#136475) #
'Now you'll tell me how Millar isn't actually bush league'

The story as I remember it was that the Marlins told Millar there was no interest in him around MLB. Clearly that wasn't true, so I would do the same thing. I would play for the league minimum in the show instead of a few million in Japan.
loquax - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:06 PM EST (#136476) #
<i>4) Are they available to people who didn't have them last year?

I don't know. You can call Johnathan at (416) 341-1651 and ask.</i>

I just ordered mine, if anyone's still reading. I also thought that you needed to get in on this a few years ago, but the deal is still on, $80 even for 500 level seats all year long. Thanks NFH!
HippyGilmore - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:06 PM EST (#136477) #
Kevin Millar, the year before going to the Red Sox, hit .306 with an .875 OPS in a pitcher's park. He had an agent. He had eyes and ears. If he couldn't figure out he had value, it's his own damn fault for hiring a bad agent.
Craig B - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:14 PM EST (#136479) #
I don't know that he's a lot better than Kenny Williams.

Look, we all go overboad and say things that we don't mean from time to time.

Leigh's right. What Kenny did was one thing, but Theo Epstein's taking a second-place team and being able to turn it into a second-place team was an outstanding piece of GM work. No wonder the Red Sox felt that couldn't do without him.

Heraclitus - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:14 PM EST (#136480) #

Andre Ethier is a pretty fine outfield prospect.

I'm presuming that this isn't the singer for local garage rockers The Deadly Snakes, but who'da thunk that there would be two Andre Ethiers out there?

Mike D - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:15 PM EST (#136481) #
Speaking of ex-Red Sox with names that kind of sound like "Millar," Bill Mueller has apparently signed with the Dodgers for two years.

Mueller fits in well on a veteran team, and I've always found him to be underappreciated both offensively (especially from the left side) and with the glove. I don't think the Dodgers are a great team yet, but at least they've dramatically improved the left side of their infield.
Craig B - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:20 PM EST (#136483) #
Yeah, different Andre Ethier. Ethier is not that uncommon a name - there are over 300 Ethiers in Ontario's phone book alone - and as it's a French name Andre would be a pretty popular first name.

There are at least two other Craig Burleys out there who have achieved more than me, for example.

Someone mentioned Ethier as a B+ above, or maybe a B, and I'd go with a B, but if he can hit for power again he goes to B+. He's strictly a corner OF who up until this season had always been strictly a singles hitter.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:25 PM EST (#136484) #
<i>So I guess that means that Billy Koch isn't a favourite of yours?</i><br><br>

Sometimes, silence is golden.:)

Andre Ethier plays in the Deadly Snakes, eh? Hmm. No one has taken up the challenge of the all-rock ball team to take on my Sultans of Swing jazz club.
Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:28 PM EST (#136485) #
Re: Colts. I really hope they play their starters throughout. Players don't get injured nearly as much as it may seem. Harrison/Manning have never been hurt, and Edge will likely split series with Rhodes. If Dungy sits the big guys and Jim Sorgi is forced to face the Seahawks/Cardinals with perfection on the line, I'd be terribly disapointed. They'll all have two weeks with the first round bye anyway. If the Jays were somehow in the same position, I'd say the same thing. Pitch Halladay to go for that 117th win (assuming rest time for playoffs like the Colts have).
Craig B - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:33 PM EST (#136487) #
No one has taken up the challenge of the all-rock ball team to take on my Sultans of Swing jazz club.

You're on, Green! Although I must admit... I'd be better doing the jazz side. Still, I think I can hold my own.

Spookie Wookie - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:48 PM EST (#136488) #
At first I thought it was a stupid statement, but the more I think about it, the more I agree. What do you guys think, do you risk your starters (and possible Super Bowl) for the record?

Point of a sports franchise, from fan's perspective, is to "bring glory". Best way to bring glory is normally thought to be to win the championship. This is an exception though, IMO.

Jim - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 01:54 PM EST (#136489) #
Ethier was selected in the 37th round in 2001 by the A's, then went to Arizona State and was taken in the 2nd round in 2003.

Ethier really had a great season at Midland. I don't really put much value in the AFL numbers, but he led the Fall League with a .495 OBP. He wasn't in Baseball America's Top 20 from the AFL though, but he was the 6th ranked prospect at the end of the season in the Texas League. The only hitters ranked ahead of him were Kendrick, Aybar and Barton.

I like Ethier, but he wouldn't net you Bradley if Milton weren't insane.



Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:15 PM EST (#136491) #
Leigh's right. What Kenny did was one thing, but Theo Epstein's taking a second-place team and being able to turn it into a second-place team was an outstanding piece of GM work. No wonder the Red Sox felt that couldn't do without him.

Are we talking about which GM has made better decisions, or which GM's decisions have returned the best results? Because they are totally different questions, and as Craig points out here, they have different answers.

Why do I get the impression that I am the only one here who thinks that that World Series was a fluke? The following four OBPs appeared in the ChiSox' everyday lineup in 2005: .308, .303, .301, .311 (Pierzynski, Uribe, Crede and Everett). The three starters with the most innings pitched struck out 5.7, 5.8 and 4.7 batters per nine innings and somehow these three lottery winners managed to post ERAs of 3.12, 3.87 and 3.50 (Buehrle, Garcia and Garland). The team won eight more games than it ought to have (pythag.); finished 35-19 in one-run games; had fewer 'third order wins' (BP) than New York, Boston, Cleveland, Oakland, LA of Anaheim, and Texas. The White Sox were a middle of the pack AL team that needed extremely good fortune to make the playoffs - much less win them - and I don't see why we should be congratulating Kenny Williams for that.

Besides, he knew Sirotka was hurt.

Ron - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:32 PM EST (#136493) #
(Richard Griffin Voice) The White Sox proved to all the SABR geeks that the game isn't played on a calculator but on the field. (Richard Griffin voice off)

I would have a hard time calling the White Sox championship a fluke. There's no way any team flukes their way to a MLB championship. It's not like it was a one game showdown for the title after the regular season ended.

As for Russ Adams, I was disappointed his D didn't improve as the season went on. I watched almost every Jays game last season, and it appeared he actually got worse. Adams wasn't shaky because the 1B man couldn't dig the ball out. Besides his weak arm, he lets routine ground balls trip him up because he's not concentrating.

I would start Adams next season at SS but if I don't see any improvement (in his D and his bat) in the first 2 months, I would bench him for Hill.
Pistol - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:37 PM EST (#136494) #
Mueller to the Dodgers - 2 years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2258951
Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:37 PM EST (#136495) #
I would have a hard time calling the White Sox championship a fluke. There's no way any team flukes their way to a MLB championship. It's not like it was a one game showdown for the title after the regular season ended.

A four game World Series represents roughly 2.5% (4/162) of an MLB regular season. The Superbowl represents 6.3% (1/16) of an NFL regular season.

Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 02:40 PM EST (#136497) #
Upon further review, I think that the allusion to the NFL was only in my head, not Ron's post. My mistake.
Mike D - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:03 PM EST (#136498) #
Leigh, the great equalizer to your arguments is defence. Low-walk, medium-homer pitchers with the stamina to go deep into games like Buehrle, Garcia and Garland -- and, yes, Towers and Chacin -- can thrive with good defence. The Chisox flashed exceptional leather, and by design.

Home runs turned a bad OBP club into an average offensive team, and the Sox had a great bullpen (largely because it was rested from all those innings eaten by the rotation). But defence was the key...and that's the credit that ought to be due to Kenny Williams. An mediocre offensive club built on excellent starting pitching and defence won't pile up the runs necessary to build a solid Pythagorean record. But that to me suggests a blind spot in the Pythagorean approach rather than sheer luck.

That said, I agree so completely on Sirotka that I'm with you in terms of rooting interest.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:03 PM EST (#136499) #
The Sox as a middle of the pack team last year? No, that's not reasonable. Their Pythagorean W-L was 91-71, and there were perfectly understandable reasons why they might have exceeded their Pythagorean to some degree, beginning with the strength of their bullpen. Now, if you want to argue about the 87 Twins, that's a whole other story.
Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:29 PM EST (#136500) #
Mikes, when I said middle of the pack, I was thinking about third order wins (BP), which I think is a reasonable barometre (certainly better than actual wins and losses, I think we can all agree). In that regard, there were six teams with more third order wins, so the White Sox were the seventh best team in a fourteen-team league; that's median of the pack, if not middle of the pack.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:41 PM EST (#136501) #
The adjusted standings report doesn't seem to be available now. How many third-order wins did the White Sox have?
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:42 PM EST (#136502) #
Reed Johnson on MLB.COM going on in 2 seconds!!!
Chuck - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:54 PM EST (#136504) #
Besides, he knew Sirotka was hurt.

Everyone knew Sirotka was hurt. Everyone but Gord Ash, apparently.

MattAtBat - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 03:58 PM EST (#136505) #
Haven't seen this here yet -- a pretty good article from USA Today:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/columnist/white/2005-12-14-leading-off_x.htm
Ryan B. - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 04:05 PM EST (#136508) #
I was thinking about the Jays last night and how the club is shaping up. I got to thinking how much they resemble the 2003-2004 Twins. Just think about it for a minute.

The Twins had a stud in Santana, a very good 2 in Radke, a young but talented lefty in Silva and then a middle of the road starter in Mays and a veteran lefty in Rogers.

The Jays have a stud in Halladay, a very good 2 in Burnett, a young but talented lefty in Chacin and then a middle of the road pitcher in Towers and a "veteran" lefty in Lilly.

Looking at the lineup the Twins had a solid defence but little offence from Doug M. at 1B, solid defence but limited offence at second in Rivas, solid defence but limited offence at short from Guzman, Koskie at 3rd. a gold glove, power hitting center fielder in Hunter, an o.k fielding, high contact hitter in Stewart and a low average but good power in right from Jones.

The Jays have a better 1B in my opinion in Overbay, a better 2B in Hudson, a similar shortstop and the same 3B. They have a carbon copy center fielder, a similar left fielder but a different right fielder. Rios is the only guy not close to what the Twins had at his respective position. They had AJ at catcher who has more offence then Zaun but Zaun is a clubhouse leader where as A.J is a clubhouse cancer.

The Twins had a left handed, shut down closer in Eddie G. They then had a deep bullpen to follow.

The Jays have a left handed, shut down closer in Ryan and a deep bullpen to follow.

Add it all up and I'd say these two teams a very, very similar. Minnesota averaged 93 wins a year from 2003-2004 I think. If the Yankees and Sox come down a few wins I think the Jays have a legitimate shot at winning the division. I'm saying that objectionably, with the rose color glasses off.

I’d like to hear other's opinions on the subject.

Note: After reading Dayne Perry's article on the Jays I'm rescinding my previous comments about how he is the Richard Griffin of America. I think he did a real nice job analyzing the team being both fair and accurate. Good for you Dayne.
MatO - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 04:06 PM EST (#136509) #
It seemed to me that Adams had 3 parts to last season. He started off throwing poorly, fixed the throwing and played well in the middle part of the season and then started booting the ball at the end (my impression anyway).
Craig B - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 04:14 PM EST (#136511) #
Why do I get the impression that I am the only one here who thinks that that World Series was a fluke?

Even on Pythag, they went 91-71. And they were perfectly built for the playoffs, a pitching and defense team that could handle the better pitchers because they weren't afraid to fall behind in the count. Yeah, I think aggressiveness works better against better pitchers.

They had only 1964 baserunners, sure, but their opponents had 1903 baserunners, and despite that they still turned a high number of double plays. And they out-homered their opponents by 33.

There wasn't a team in baseball that was singificantly better than the White Sox, except the Cardinals. Were they destined to win? No, but they had as much right to as anyone else. They *dominated* those playoffs, right!?

If the White Sox win was a fluke, 80% or more of WS titles are flukes.

Leigh - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 04:52 PM EST (#136519) #
The adjusted standings report doesn't seem to be available now. How many third-order wins did the White Sox have?

86.9, Mike G. Less than Cleveland (97.6), New York (93.9), Oakland (91.2), Boston (91.1), LA of Anaheim (88.3), and Texas (87.2).

Craig, I guess we'll just have to disagree. All of the objective evidence that I can find indicates that the White Sox were very lucky to even make the playoffs. They were lucky to post the run differential that they did, and they were lucky to translate that serendipitous run differential into the record that they did.

Those adjusted standing show that they were the seventh best team in the AL. Hell, I'm willing to kick out Texas on a subjective basis and call the ChiSox the sixth best team in the AL last year. How does the sixth best team in the AL winning the World Series not qualify as a fluke? Which part do you not agree with, Craig? Are you saying that Chicago was better than the sixth or seventh best team in the AL (in which case I'd like for you to direct me to some research about the shortcomings of AEQR, AEQRA, and Adjusted Standings)? Or are you saying that this team was so well-built for the playoffs that, once they lucked-out and got every single bounce all damn season in order to make the playoffs, they had a good chance of doing well in the playoffs?

This isn't intended to be hostile. I'm just frustrated because there must be something that I just don't 'get' or see. From my vantage point, it was an unquestionable fluke that they even made the playoffs, but there are some opinions to the contrary here from people that I know to have great baseball judgment.

Jacko - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 07:26 PM EST (#136534) #
Two brief hijacks.

1. The Huckaby signing.

It didn't occur to me that there's an opening for catching Wakefield every 5th day in Boston. Huck was signed specifically to compete for that role.

2. Braves

When discussing Beane, the Braves, and "overratedness" yesterday, I had a look at the team details for the 1995 Braves. That team scored only 645 runs. That's 130 runs less than the "underachieving" 2005 Jays offense. Atlanta won on their pitching staff, who allowed only 540 runs to score the entire season.

Things sure have changed in the last decade!
Cristian - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 08:29 PM EST (#136537) #
1995 was a shortened season don't forget.
Jacko - Wednesday, December 14 2005 @ 08:42 PM EST (#136538) #
Er, um, yeah...

That explains quite a bit. 144 games, right?

650 * 9 / 8 = 731
540 * 9 / 8 = 607

DepecheJay - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 01:25 AM EST (#136552) #
If the Colts go undefeated and all, that's nice, but what matters most is winning the Super Bowl.

What made the Dolphins so special was that they won EVERY GAME that season. Say the Colts go undefeated and then lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs at home to say, the Patriots, or the Jags or whoever it is they end up facing. How many people, especially Colts fans, would care about going undefeated? Sure, it goes down as a TREMENDOUS season that may never be rivaled, BUT it would also go down as single most dissapointing season in NFL history if they DIDN'T win the Super Bowl.

I'm sure most Colts fans would tell you that if it meant benching starters and going 14-2 to win a Super Bowl, they'd want the starters resting. Heck, Dungy would tell you that.

Doesn't matter either way, the Hawks are gonna beat em in Week 16 AND the Super Bowl ;)
robertdudek - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 08:22 AM EST (#136556) #
First of all, there is no way that the Colts' starters are going to sit out the whole game - if anyone made that decision they would be lynched at first opportunity so it's just not going to happen.

Besides which, it's just not a good idea to get your key players out of "game shape" and then expect them to be sharp for the playoffs. They would actually be increasing their chances of losing by sitting the players for four weeks.

The obvious solution to the dilemma now presents itself. The Colts play hard for 3 quarters and blow the opposition away, and the scrubs take over for the 4th quarter.

The Colts will go 16-0 and will win it all. They are the best NFL team since the '85 Bears.



Mike Green - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 10:13 AM EST (#136570) #
Thanks, Leigh. You can overstate the importance of the Pythagorean W-L, be it first order or third order. For instance, the Yankees have exceeded their Pythagorean projection every year since 2000. In 2004, they exceeded it by a whopping 12 games. Does this mean that their Pythagorean record is a true indication of their ability? Nope. Mariano Rivera alone is worth probably a couple of games a season above and beyond the runs he does not allow because of their victory-importance.

On the other hand, the Pythagorean record does tell you something. When a team exceeds its Pythagorean by 12 games, the odds are pretty good that much of the difference is fluke. That's why so many of us scoffed when the oddsmakers had placed the Yankees over/under number in March 2005 at 102.

My guess is that the White Sox' true talent level in 2005 was somewhere in the 92-94 win range. They were rightfully a pennant contender that got a little lucky. But, as Craig says, that is true of many, many World Series champions.
Jim - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 10:14 AM EST (#136571) #
If you wonder why the mainstream press and tradtional baseball people dislike 'stat guys':

<i>I was thinking about third order wins (BP), which I think is a reasonable barometre (certainly better than actual wins and losses, I think we can all agree)</i>

I can tell you that I most certainly do not agree that third order wins are a better barometer then actual wins and losses.

Think about what they did. They swept the Red Sox. They drilled the Angels 4-1 and then swept the Astros. 11-1 against those teams.

Now consider the inverse. If the White Sox are truly a .530 baseball team what are the chances they go 11-1 against teams that are 'truly' ~.545-.560 teams. I can't do the math, but I'm sure a .530 team going 11-1 over a .545 team in 12 games would work out to less then 1% - but it happened didn't it?

Baseball games are more then the sums of their parts. K/9 ratio is great if you want to figure out if some AA pitcher projects to be useful at the major league level. If it means saying that Mark Buherle is a lottery winner after 1200 innings of an ERA+ over 120 by the age of 26, that is just misguided.

I just don't get why you would look at what the White Sox did and try to find the flaws with them because some advanced metrics say different. If your stats say the Texas Rangers were a better team in 2005, then it's time to fix the stat, not the White Sox.
Leigh - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:05 AM EST (#136581) #
If it means saying that Mark Buherle is a lottery winner after 1200 innings of an ERA+ over 120 by the age of 26, that is just misguided.

Fair enough; I was probably tougher on Buehrle than was justified. He is a pitcher who relies very much on defence, and he pitched in front of a very good one in Chicago. He did drop his walks and homeruns in 2005. Kudos to Buehrle and mea culpa for the overstatement.

I can tell you that I most certainly do not agree that third order wins are a better barometer then actual wins and losses.

I disagree, Jim. Pythag and third order have their deficiencies, as Mike G. notes above, but are much 'truer' than actual wins and losses. If the Yankees and Blue Jays got together to play eleven games on a neutral field and the Jays won 5 of those games by scores of 17-1, 15-2, 23-5, 12-0, and 8-2, and the Yankees won 6 of those games by scores of 1-0, 10-9, 4-3, 7-6, 2-1, and 5-4, would you say that the Yankees were better because they won more of the games?

Baseball games are more then [sic]the sums of their parts.

I agree completely. In the end, the team that scored the most runs in the game, won the game. When looking back at things accomplished, like the Sox' run in 2005, it is perfectly acceptable to praise teams, players and management for winning. Whether you want to consider them the 'best' team in 2005 is more of a semantic question than an analytic one. A strong argument can be made that the end - winning a World Series - is the sole criteria by which we define 'best'.

The problem, though, is that if you wish to view baseball through a critical lens, you have to let your definitions drift beyond the results-based ones that are so comfortable and intuitive. We have to concentrate on the process and realize that the outcomes (winning and losing) are still at the mercy of probability. The better the process, the better the probability of positive outcomes. When looking to predict future outcomes, processes are a better predictor than past outcomes.

There is a bit a problem here, of course. Most of what we view at processes are outcomes of subprocesses. For example: doubles are a process, runs batted in are an outcome; so, doubles are better indicator of future rbi than are past rbi. But hitting doubles is not an original process -it is also the product of an outcome. One process that leads to doubles is ball trajectory and speed, which then becomes a better predictor of doubles than doubles themselves. But then ball trajectory and speed are outcomes too, having resulted from the processes of biomechanical and muscular body movement in the swing. The further you dig, the better chance you have of predicting future RBI.

Wins and losses are outcomes, and when you look to them as proof of the correctness of the process that produced them, you are overlooking the role of probability and the chance that you were just lucky. Looking at pythag and third order records instead helps to avoid such oversights.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:14 AM EST (#136585) #
As you can see, Jim, I'm in the middle on this one. It seems to me that Kenny Williams has acted this off-season as if his 2005 club had significant flaws. I do not know if his moves will result in another triumph (I think that his club overall is better, but that the club still will not win 99 games in 2006). But, I have a lot of respect for his approach of attacking problems. It is so easy to rest on laurels.

The White Sox last year were not a much better club than their playoff opposition. Better, perhaps. But, the main thing was that they got hot. In 2004, the Red Sox reeled off 8 straight in the playoffs against the Yankees and Cardinals. Was that because they were that much better, or simply that they got hot at the right time? I'd say that the answer is the same as it was for the White Sox.
Leigh - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:28 AM EST (#136589) #
I should note that I like the Thome and Vazquez acquisitions a well. Hopefully, he completes the hat trick by selling high on Jon Garland. He, and the White Sox, are relatively easy to root for.

The trick is to recognize that, while the 2006 version appears to be better than the 2005 version, it will almost certainly win fewer games. They were an 89ish win team last season(adding a couple to their third order wins to acknowledge Mike G.'s arguments about bullpen and pythag, which make sense), so they appear to be a 90+ win team this year, luck neutral. Of course, if there luck this season is as bad as it was good last season, they'll finish just below .500 even if their team is actually better.
Mike D - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:28 AM EST (#136590) #
Leigh, I'm throwing this out there as a question rather than a contention.

Are you impressed with Kenny Williams' performance this offseason? Bill Stoneman built an Angels club in 2002 that many observers felt got a lot of bounces en route to the World Series. He stood pat, figuring he already had the world champs and not wanting to mess with his club's chemistry. The '03 Angels won 77 games.

Now, Kenny has the champs, and you're not the only one suggesting they got a few bounces on the way. But he's traded his centrefielder for a DH (or 1B in case Konerko left); swapped a LOOGY for a utility player; and traded a package that includes both a sentimental favourite and a reliever acquired last year in the Carlos Lee trade for a starting pitcher, notwithstanding his depth at starting pitcher. In other words, he's not standing pat.

Approve or disapprove?
Mike D - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:30 AM EST (#136591) #
Bah. Beaten to the punch while my comment was pending.
Jim - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:39 AM EST (#136594) #
'If the Yankees and Blue Jays got together to play eleven games on a neutral field and the Jays won 5 of those games by scores of 17-1, 15-2, 23-5, 12-0, and 8-2, and the Yankees won 6 of those games by scores of 1-0, 10-9, 4-3, 7-6, 2-1, and 5-4, would you say that the Yankees were better because they won more of the games?'

I wouldn't be able to make a decision based on this sample.

This is what I've got to say about Pythag records: There are clearly teams that they don't measure correctly. The Joe Torre Yankees are not measured correctly. I would guess this is because they have the ultimate collection of stars and scrubs. They have premium talent, but they usually have a horrible bench and a thin bullpen. Over the long haul this hurts their runs allowed and runs scored - but at the same time it doesn't hurt their won-loss record in the same fashion. Everyone who has predicted doom for them over the past decade based on their outperformance of their pyth record has been wrong over and over.

I don't see why it's a stretch to think that the 2005 White Sox are also a team that isn't captured correctly in stats like third order wins. There is no way in the world that the Texas Rangers were a better team last year. To me the gap between Boston, Anaheim, NY, Chicago, Cleveland and even Oakland is pretty small but the White Sox did win 99 games in the regular season and roll through the playoffs. Did they get hot at the right time? Of course they did.

I guess people like the fact that pyth record is a better predictor for the following season then the real life record. I don't see why that is a big deal, regression is very strong and very real. Teams that win a lot of games in real life tend to outperform the formula, teams that lose a lot of games underperform the formula - so regression is going to bring everyone closer to .500 and make the formula a better predicitive model.

I'll take pythag record over real life record when they base the playoffs on it and teams are managed towards runs allowed and runs scored. Give me a call when Joe Torre brings in Rivera in a 8-0 game just because Wayne Franklin loaded the bases in the ninth and Torre wants to win by 8 instead of just 6.
Jim - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:41 AM EST (#136595) #
'The trick is to recognize that, while the 2006 version appears to be better than the 2005 version, it will almost certainly win fewer games.'

Really going out on a limb. How many teams in history that win 99 games win more the following year? 10%? 15%?
Mike Green - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 11:53 AM EST (#136598) #
To put it concretely, the White Sox last year were a good team that outperformed their Pythagorean projection, while the Indians last year were a good team that underperformed their Pythagorean projection. Both teams had good bullpens and reasonably good benches. If the rosters for 2006 had remained the same, I would say the Pythagorean W-L would be an important predictive tool in assessing how each team was likely to do. But, the Sox roster has changed considerably, and so personally, I don't place a huge amount of weight on either their 2005 W-L or their 2005 Pythagorean in projecting how they might do in 2006.
Mike D - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 12:24 PM EST (#136606) #
I think there's some merit to what Jim's saying. I think pythag hurts the White Sox even more than the Yankees, because not only do the White Sox have "one-run game skills" (which, as Cleveland can attest, isn't always determinative), but the Sox had a mediocre offence and won based on run prevention.

If you can't pile up the score in blowouts, you can't pad your pythag record.
Mike D - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 12:28 PM EST (#136607) #
I'll take pythag record over real life record when they base the playoffs on it and teams are managed towards runs allowed and runs scored. Give me a call when Joe Torre brings in Rivera in a 8-0 game just because Wayne Franklin loaded the bases in the ninth and Torre wants to win by 8 instead of just 6.

I agree with this, too. If you have a bullpen with Mariano Rivera and a bunch of crappy guys, and your decision flow chart once the starter is out of the game is "if ahead by 3 runs or fewer, tied, or behind by one run, then Rivera; if not, then crappy guy"...that's a recipe for a weakened pythag record.
Leigh - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 12:59 PM EST (#136617) #
Fair comment, Mike G., and I'd tend to agree.

Jim, I wasn't trying to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction about the Sox not winning 99 games next season; as you rightly point out, that's not very bold at all. What I was trying to point out was that the team will likely be better and win fewer games, something that is rare, I assume.

Regarding the Rangers, Jim, it doesn't make sense to me either. The key is to be critical enough to track down where the stats are coming from, but not to be so arrogant as to be willing to substitute one's own subjective judgments in place of the hard evidence. I'm not saying that Pythag and third order are perfect; I'm just saying that they are much better than wins and losses.

I think that the White Sox are improved. Like I said above, the 'real' White Sox were an 89ish win team last season and should be able to improve on that mark. Williams has addressed the biggest problem with last year's lineup - Everett - and has brought in Mackowiak, who should be able to help at both third base and the outfield. I love the Thome gamble, as well. Vazquez is the most interesting pickup, especially with regard to the processes/outcomes discussion. Vazquez gave up too many homeruns last season, but upon closer inspection of the batted ball data, he should bounce back somewhat. His other peripherals are outstanding. I'd go so far as to say that he has a better chance than any of the others of being their best starting pitcher this season. In sum, I love what Kenny Williams has done this offseason. He still holds, however, two of the players whose perceived value most exceeds their actual value - Podsednik* and Garland - so there are still smart trades to be made.

*With the caveat that I don't know how good Brian Anderson is defensively. If they need Podsednik's defence in centrefield, with their extreme fly-ball pitching staff, then he becomes more valuable.
Leigh - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 01:06 PM EST (#136619) #
I agree with this, too. If you have a bullpen with Mariano Rivera and a bunch of crappy guys, and your decision flow chart once the starter is out of the game is "if ahead by 3 runs or fewer, tied, or behind by one run, then Rivera; if not, then crappy guy"...that's a recipe for a weakened pythag record.

I would tend to agree as well, Mike D., if Jim had used that line of reasoning to indicate that pythag is not perfect. What he actually wrote, though, was that this argument justifies the use of actual record in lieu of pythag, which is a much stronger conclusion than the evidence is capable of indicating. That is, the criticisms of pythag carry some validity, but it is still a heck of a lot better than obtuse wins and losses.

Jim - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 02:02 PM EST (#136631) #
'I'm not saying that Pythag and third order are perfect; I'm just saying that they are much better than wins and losses.'

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree, because to me the only thing that matters is what your real record is. I'm from the Bill Parcells school of thought - you are what you are.

To me the White Sox were a 99 win team in 2005. I don't see how breaking down the contributions of the individuals into run components and then building back to wins and losses makes them anything different. Were they the best team in baseball in 2005? I certainly didn't think so going into the season but they certainly have a claim to it now.

As for arrogance.. I'd say it's more arrogant to try and frame the Texas Rangers as a better team last year then the White Sox based on third order wins then it is to say that Team A won 99 games, Team B won 80-something, so then Team A is better.

It certainly seems to me that a good amount of the sabremetric community has gone out of it's way to disparage what the White Sox did last year. The only thing I can take from that is that it bothers some writers that Ozzie Guillen pretends they are a small ball offense, when we all know that they aren't.

Again, if the White Sox win 99 games and have 86 third order wins and the Rangers win 83 games and have 87 third order wins why is it 'luck' that smiled on the White Sox? Why can't it be that there is something important that isn't captured in third order wins, or that it doesn't capture teams that excel defensively.

'What I was trying to point out was that the team will likely be better and win fewer games, something that is rare, I assume.'

I don't think that is that rare anymore myself. With the unbalanced schedule so much of your record is based on what kind of season the four teams around you are having. You can be the exact same team year over year, but if you play 81 games against a higher quality then you did the prior year you probably are going to suffer a touch in the standings. Throw Baltimore out there for example. Lets say that they are the of the same quality they were in 2005, but Toronto and Tampa improve and the Yankees and Red Sox are equal... that gives them a tougher opposition for a full 1/4 of their schedule, if they get 3% better and Tampa and Toronto are 6% better, it's a pretty big net loss.
Jim - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 02:05 PM EST (#136632) #
'What he actually wrote, though, was that this argument justifies the use of actual record in lieu of pythag'

I guess I'm a bit all over the place. My real argument is that no record matters except the real wins and losses. If you think Cleveland was better then Chicago last year it really doesn't matter, since they finished behind them. All the analysis of one run games and run differentials isn't going to change that fact.

I doubt there is anyone at this site that actually believes that whoever wins the World Series is always the best team in baseball, it's just that it doesn't matter who the best team was - all that matters is who wins.
robertdudek - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 02:12 PM EST (#136633) #
I doubt there is anyone at this site that actually believes that whoever wins the World Series is always the best team in baseball, it's just that it doesn't matter who the best team was - all that matters is who wins.

It matters if you want to predict what the teams will do THIS year.
Ryan C - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 02:16 PM EST (#136634) #
Again, if the White Sox win 99 games and have 86 third order wins and the Rangers win 83 games and have 87 third order wins why is it 'luck' that smiled on the White Sox? Why can't it be that there is something important that isn't captured in third order wins

Just want to say that I agree completely with this sentiment. Just because one is based on process and the other is based on outcome doesnt necessarily make the process one "better". If the process itself is flawed it could very well be worse.

Jim - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 02:17 PM EST (#136635) #
'It matters if you want to predict what the teams will do THIS year. '

Why does who the best team was in 2005 matter if you are trying to predict who the best team will be 2006. Wouldn't most build the team projection from the player level up? Who would just take last years 3rd order wins or super-pythag and regress them without taking roster changes, aging and injuries into account?
Leigh - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 02:20 PM EST (#136638) #
it's just that it doesn't matter who the best team was - all that matters is who wins.

Certainly the White Sox did win, no question about it. I hate to get Clintonian on you, but much of our debate hinges on what "matters" means. Chicago won last year, Cleveland and Oakland were the 'best' teams in the AL... which of those "matters" is pretty subjective.

At any rate, Jim, I love discussions like these and I thank you for putting up with me.

Jim - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 02:25 PM EST (#136640) #
Don't think that I don't understand everything you are saying.

I just think that some of the analysis of run differentials is off base because teams aren't managed to maximize that. I also understand that when we talk about luck, we aren't talking about luck in the sense that someone wins powerball every few weeks.

I don't even like Ken Williams or the White Sox, it just seems to me that many take shots at them because they are more concered with their pre-season projections being correct then they are with an honest assessment of what happened (not that I'm accusing Leigh or anyone specific of that - well maybe Joe Sheehan for 3/4's of the season).
robertdudek - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 03:01 PM EST (#136644) #
Third order wins is a good STARTING POINT for evaluating prospects for 2006. On top of that you consider roster movements, age, injuries, fluke years etc.

Chuck - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 04:53 PM EST (#136653) #
I think we need a fresh, general yakkety-yak thread.

It seems that ex-Jay Tony Batista has signed with Minnesota.

Anyone see his charging the mound episode last year in Japan?

Jacko - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 06:41 PM EST (#136661) #
The Twins signed Batista to a major league deal?

Gleeman is going to be apoplectic tomorrow morning...
Pistol - Thursday, December 15 2005 @ 07:47 PM EST (#136665) #
"I think we need a fresh, general yakkety-yak thread."

Go to today's thread. New general threads don't usually go up until 100+ posts or several days pass, especially when there's nothing going on.
Jim - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 09:08 AM EST (#136700) #
'Third order wins is a good STARTING POINT for evaluating prospects for 2006. On top of that you consider roster movements, age, injuries, fluke years etc.'

It's not really. But this gets back to what upsets so many on the internet about the White Sox success. It went against their predictions, that is why so many are ready to call it a 'fluke' or 'luck'.
Leigh - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 09:18 AM EST (#136704) #
Jim, that's not true and you know it. It's the data that proves that the Sox weren't that good, I'm not employing some sort of cognitive dissonance, or whatever it is that you are alleging. It's baseball, it's all about probability. Just because the Sox won doesn't mean that they were most likely to have won. If the 2005 season were replayed 1,000 times, the White Sox would miss the playoffs in the majority of those iterations.
Craig B - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 09:26 AM EST (#136706) #
Once, just *once*, I would like to see a discussion here where people dealt with the points at hand and didn't bother with attacking peoples' motives.

Robert, I thought Jim had an interesting point in that teams aren't managed in such a way as to maximize run elements (or even runs). That's the sort of thing that has to factor into an analysis, right?

But Jim, on the other hand, I think it's fair to point out that the number of instances in a game where "run element" returns aren't sought to be maximized is pretty small, and in the substantial majority of plate appearances (if that's the level we want to break it down to) players are trying to maximize the run element return. And because run elements are the thing that are most repeatable and predictable (in other words, all things being equal a team that produces more run elements but fewer runs will score more in subsequent seasons/games/etc than one who produces more runs but fewer run elements) we should probably use those, and not wins, to make our future predictions.

It's just not proven, as far as anything I've seen, that some teams are more efficient on a year-by-year basis than others. In fact, I think the evidence is that it's not true, at least when we're dealing with non-choice run elements. Obviously, sacrifice bunts (for example) can be shown to be run- and win-inefficient, and if manager A likes to bunt like it's going out of style, that will persist from year to year.

I don't think that there is a basis for thinking that the White Sox found a Magic Winning Formula. They won; that's enough, and especially because they were quite a good team. I thought the White Sox would be worse than just about anyone else, I was proven very wrong, and I stood up and said so, loudly, and now I am saying that they're pretty darned good. And the last time I checked, I'm "on the internet" as it were. All of which has nothing to do with what I am saying now.
Craig B - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 09:35 AM EST (#136707) #
Leigh, I don't want to answer for Jim but I'll point out that baseball is not Diamond Mind, and it is not a simulation. You can't "iterate" a baseball season, because everything that happens is dependent on what has come before (i.e. the entropy of the system can't be undone).

The "luck" that we see peeking through the data is not "luck" in the sense of random numbers or rolls of the dice. A plate appearance, a confrontation between a batter and a pitcher, is not a random event. It is a struggle of muscles and wills between two men standing twenty yards apart. Over a period of time, yes, the results seduce us into *thinking* that it is random, because it appears that way and we can profitably make that assumption in our analyses. But it isn't really like that, and we know it isn't (or we wouldn't watch it). Juan Uribe didn't catch that popup in the stands because he got lucky; he caught it because he got a good look at it off the bat and his legs responded instantly.

How can we know that in 900 of those "iterations", Frank Thomas doesn't get hurt, and goes through the season hitting like Frank Thomas, and the White Sox win 100 games? We can't. We can look at what happened through an analytical lens and make assumptions about what would have happened if things had been different, but to put it down to "luck" and to make easy assumptions about what might have happened otherwise, is to claim a knowledge about the world that we simply don't possess.
Mike Green - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 09:39 AM EST (#136709) #
Jim, the White Sox victory was a surprise to everyone, sabermetricians and others. In our contest at the beginning of 2005, absolutely nobody picked the Sox to win the World Series even though they had finished second in the division for several years running.

If we are speaking about prospects for 2006, you might say that the Sox should be expected to win 93-95 games bearing in mind that they won 99 and some regression to the mean should be expected. Robert might say that they should be expected to win 92-94 games, bearing in mind that they had 86 third order wins in 2005 but have improved the roster significantly in the off-season.

A more interesting case is Texas. Perhaps we should do a poll asking our readers how many games Texas is likely to win within ranges of 3, something like 75 or fewer, 76-78, 79-81, 82-84, 85-87, 88 or more. In the comments, everybody could provide their explanations.
Jim - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 09:49 AM EST (#136712) #
'I don't think that there is a basis for thinking that the White Sox found a Magic Winning Formula.'

I don't see anyone saying that they did. The most outrageous thing I'm proposing is that what made them successful isn't captured in things like third order wins. Do I know what those things are or how to fix the stat? Of course I don't.

Craig I'm not accusing you, Leigh or Robert of only trying to protect your 'predictions', but if you can't see that in the negative backlash against the White Sox then I don't know what to say.

There are plenty of 'sabrmaticians', who's real goal is to just show how much smarter they are then the average fan who likes Tracy Ringolsby. When a team like the White Sox makes their projections and stats look silly, they do the obvious: They break out the 'luck' card.

'(in other words, all things being equal a team that produces more run elements but fewer runs will score more in subsequent seasons/games/etc than one who produces more runs but fewer run elements) we should probably use those, and not wins, to make our future predictions.'

Is there anyone who is doing sophiscated projections at the team level that doesn't do them from the players up? You start with player projections and work up, you don't start with last year's third order wins and work down.
Craig B - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 12:19 PM EST (#136731) #
But Jim, who cares what their motive is?

My point was only that what a person's motive is doesn't matter. If what we're going to be doing here is having meandering baseball discussions constantly puncutated by accusations of bad faith, it seems we probably just... shouldn't.

I happen to agree with you, that there are some people who pursue sabermetrics as an easy road to "superior baseball knowledge". There aren't really that many people here like that, not too much anyway, though we all have our biases.

By the way, by "Magic Winning Formula" (apologies for the facetious tone if there was one, I didn't mean it that way) I mean winning by ways other than stuff like collecting hits, drawing walks, and making outs on defense. Basically, stuff that's not captured in 3OW. I do appreciate your point, that the White Sox *did* those Magic Winning things in 2005. But I do not think that they are any more likely than anyone else to do it in 2006. Everyone knows "how to win", and everyone is trying to do the exact same thing, and so no one has a real edge in them other than in a very minor way. While I respect your differing opinion, I'm unpersuaded by the evidence for it...
Jim - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 01:38 PM EST (#136740) #
'But I do not think that they are any more likely than anyone else to do it in 2006.'

Neither am I.

robertdudek - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 01:39 PM EST (#136741) #
Player projections use the basic player stats and put them through the prism of statistical analysis. So third order pythagorean (i.e. using run estimates on both offence and defence as your runs scored and runs allowed) is merely the sum of the individual players stats - the stats used for the player projections.

So all team prediction systems essentially eschew the actual winning percentage in favour of the collective stats of the players (which is basically what third-order pyth is).

In other words, the prediction systems do not consider the actual 2005 winning percentage when coming up with a prediction for 2006 - AT ALL.

But before you jump down my throat, I will state categorically there are skills that exist BEYOND those captured by third order pyth. The two most important being bullpen performance in close games and non-SB baserunning.

I will further state that the White Sox were unequivically a better team than the Rangers last year (at any rate, THT's third-order pyth concurs, showing CHI's predicted wins at 89 an TEX at 86 - p.140)

My rule of thumb in estimating the "true" performance of a ballclub (as opposed to a projection/prediction) is to use two parts 3rd order pyth and one part actual WPCT. Notice I said performance and not "talent level" or "ability" - one reason is that performance is heavily influenced by injuries, which are in turn heavily influenced by luck.


Jim - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 01:55 PM EST (#136742) #
'Third order wins is a good STARTING POINT for evaluating prospects for 2006. On top of that you consider roster movements, age, injuries, fluke years etc.'

'In other words, the prediction systems do not consider the actual 2005 winning percentage when coming up with a prediction for 2006 - AT ALL.'

My point is that no one uses either. Your first quoted passage above states that you believe third order wins is a good starting point for projecting 2006. I didn't think you meant it either, but you posted it.

Don't ignore park factors when looking at the problems with third order. Not only the park factors used, but the method in which they are used.
robertdudek - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 02:02 PM EST (#136743) #
Pythagorean wpct is not materially affected by park.

Please explain your comment.
Mike Green - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 02:08 PM EST (#136745) #
I have a technical question. Why does BP's third order Pyth show the White Sox with under 87 expected wins and THT's show them with 89? I assume that the calculation method differs, but that's quite a different result.

There are variations in the first order Pyth calculation, but almost invariably the differences are less than one win in a season.
robertdudek - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 02:11 PM EST (#136746) #
One reason might be the run estimator.

I have no idea what BP uses, but the THT article by Dan Fox uses the latest version of Base Runs (by David Smyth). Some years ago, I advocated strongly for Base Runs as the best run estimator in the business.

Mike Green - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 02:14 PM EST (#136747) #
Can I echo Craig's comment? A healthy and friendly debate about projection methods is fine, but can we keep things civil, please.
Mike Green - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 02:23 PM EST (#136749) #
Thanks, Robert. Poking around the BP statistics glossary, we find that they use AEQR, which is equivalent runs adjusted for the quality of pitching/defence faced, and AEQRA (the same thing on the runs prevention side). Equivalent runs are simply a multiple of outs made and the familiar equivalent average. I'd be interested to know the Base Runs and Equivalent Runs accuracy levels over the last 10 years.
Jim - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 03:21 PM EST (#136753) #
I was talking about third order wins with respect to park factors, not pythag record.

Third order wins are based on EQR which is based on EQA which has park factors included.

I'm not saying that it effects the White Sox in 2005 at all, it's more an overall comment that the park factors are inexact and they don't perfectly fit every type of ballplayer even if they are in the same lineup.
Mike Green - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 04:23 PM EST (#136758) #
On a related note, the disparity between the leagues makes projection more difficult. There has been somewhat more talent in the American League than the National for several years, and that situation seems to me to have been exacerbated this off-season by the Marlin fire sale and a couple of dubious trades made by the Padres.

To put it more concretely, is there a team aside from the White Sox in the American League who can be reasonably expected to be worse in fact in 2006 than they were in 2005? I can't think of any, and the Sox can be expected to be pretty good. In light of the limited interleague play, this means that American League teams may have to improve just to stand still.

The projection difficulty arises from the fact that talent flows through an open NL/AL loop whereas regular season results are essentially a closed loop.
robertdudek - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 04:37 PM EST (#136762) #
Diamond Mind can alleviate this problem, by simming actual games of actual seasons many many times. If the AL has been made stronger by player movement (one would have to consider the quality of young players entering each league as well), this will be fully accounted for by a decent DMB sim. The number of wins in the AL (non-interleague) will remain the same even if all the teams have improved.


Craig B - Friday, December 16 2005 @ 05:23 PM EST (#136766) #
is there a team aside from the White Sox in the American League who can be reasonably expected to be worse in fact in 2006 than they were in 2005?

The Yankees. 3OW would say also the Angels, but while I am unpersuaded by that it can't be ignored that they don't seem to be addressing their weaknesses.

If you mean worse by number of wins, I think the Red Sox would also be a reasonable expectation to get worse, though they seem to have stanched the blood flow and have made steps to better themselves.

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