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The best start of Kyle Snyder's still-promising career runs the Jays' losing streak to five.

According to Game Scores, Snyder's outing (a 79, easily a career high) was the fourth-best performance against the Jays this year. The big righty got into the heads of the Jaysí hitters with his lollipop curveball, racking up 8 strikeouts over 7 two-hit shutout innings.

It certainly seems like the Jays have a tendency to get stymied by righthanded pitchers with mediocre statistics. However, that's an unscientific claim, and I hate making those, so let's test it by unleashing...

A Data Table

This table consists of the Game Scores for the Jays' opposing starting pitchers in each of their 135 games so far this year. In case you are unfamiliar with Game Scores or need a reminder, here is the Game Score Formula, stolen directly from a Magpie Opus:

Start with 50 points.
Add 1 point for each out recorded.
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The W/L column indicates whether the Jays (not the pitcher's team!) won each game.

There is also a hastily-made-up-on-a-whim stat, which I call Overachievement Index, which reflects how the pitcher's performance in that one particular game stacks up against his season to date. This is given by GS^1.4 / ERA+ * 4.43. ERA+ is taken from the Hardball Times, with its beautiful cumulative park factors. There is no reason for the 1.4 other than that I fiddled with powers for a while and found that it gave nice results that seem to jive with ESPN's erratically kept but potentially very useful Average Game Scores. (If the power is 1, the formula expects way too much of pitchers; a Mike Mussina 67 was deemed a roughly average performance.) The 4.43 is a magic coefficient that ensures that a 100 ERA+ pitcher who gets a 48 Game Score receives a 10 Overachievement Index.

10 is the average Overachievement Index. Anything over 11 means a solidly above-average start relative to the pitcher's 2006 stats; under 9, and he got hit a bit harder than usual. Anything in between usually means a par-for-the-course outing.

ERA+ is not the best stat to use - Average Game Scores would be better - but the only site I know of that tracks that is ESPN, and it thinks Chris Carpenter is in the 30s in AGS, and I don't particularly feel like hammering out 100 of those manually, so ERA+ it is.

ERA+ figures for pitchers who have switched teams (eg: Jeff Weaver, Sidney Ponson, Adam Bernero) are rough estimates.

Here it is:

 Gm  Tm Pitcher      T GS  ERA+ OVER
127 OAK Voldemort    R 86 L  94 24.1
110 CHW Vazquez      R 85 L  93 23.9
123 BAL Cabrera      R 85 L  94 23.7
135 BOS Snyder       R 79 L  76 26.4
132 CLE Sabathia     L 77 L 135 14.4
129 KC  R. Hernandez R 76 L  66 28.8
107 NYY Wang         R 74 L 123 14.9
 29 ANA Escobar      R 72 L 117 15.1
121 TB  Kazmir       L 70 W 138 12.3
118 MIN Radke        R 69 L 103 16.1
113 BAL Cabrera      R 67 L  94 17.0
 67 FLA Olsen*       L 67 L 100 16.0
 14 NYY Mussina      R 67 L 125 12.8
 35 TB  McClung      R 66 L  69 22.6
 11 CHW Buehrle      L 66 L  99 15.8
 82 TEX Rheinecker   L 65 L  81 18.9
  7 BOS Beckett      R 65 L  92 16.6
 56 BAL Cabrera      R 65 L  94 16.3
 48 CHW Contreras    R 65 W 109 14.0
 85 KC  Redman       L 64 L  81 18.5
 20 BAL Benson       R 64 L  93 16.1
 27 BOS Clement      R 63 L  71 20.6
108 NYY Lidle        R 63 L 105 13.9
 30 ANA Lackey       R 63 W 122 12.0
122 BAL Benson       R 62 L  93 15.4
120 TB  Shields      R 62 L  97 14.8
102 OAK Blanton      R 62 L 102 14.0
 68 FLA Moehler*     R 60 L  70 19.5
 73 NYM Glavine      L 60 L 112 12.2
 86 KC  L. Hudson    R 59 L  79 16.9
 61 DET Miner        R 59 L  97 13.8
 84 TEX Padilla      R 59 L 118 11.3
 32 OAK Haren        R 59 L 119 11.2
 42 COL Francis*     L 59 L 125 10.7
 23 NYY Mussina      R 59 L 125 10.7
 94 TEX Millwood     R 58 L 106 12.3
 83 TEX Koronka      L 57 W  86 14.8
105 OAK Komine       R 57 L  90 14.1
106 NYY Wright       R 57 L  98 13.0
 38 ANA E. Santana   R 57 L 102 12.5
 93 TEX Padilla      R 57 L 118 10.8
  6 TB  Kazmir       L 57 L 138  9.2
 58 BAL Benson       R 56 W  93 13.3
 72 ATL H. Ramirez*  L 55 W  99 12.2
 60 DET Bonderman    R 55 W 111 10.9
 95 NYY Mussina      R 55 W 125  9.7
 76 WAS Ramon Ortiz  R 54 W  80 14.7
 25 BAL Benson       R 53 L  93 12.4
 63 BAL Benson       R 53 L  93 12.4
 66 BAL Cabrera      R 53 W  94 12.2
 89 SEA Meche        R 52 L  95 11.8
119 TB  Seo          R 51 W  90 12.1
114 BAL Bedard       L 50 W 113  9.4
 40 ANA Lackey       R 50 W 122  8.7
 15 BOS Beckett      R 49 W  92 11.2
 91 SEA F. Hernandez R 49 W  95 10.8
 36 TB  Hendrickson  L 49 W 100 10.3
 24 BAL Bedard       L 49 W 113  9.1
117 MIN Bonser       R 48 W  89 11.2
 45 TB  Hendrickson  L 48 W 100 10.0
 80 PHI Lidle        R 48 W 105  9.5
 69 FLA J. Johnson*  R 48 L 148  6.8
 43 COL Fogg*        R 47 L  85 11.4
 54 TB  Hendrickson  L 47 W 100  9.7
133 CLE Sowers       L 47 L 127  7.6
 17 BOS Clement      R 46 L  71 13.3
 18 BAL R. Lopez     R 46 W  72 13.1
109 CHW Garland      R 46 L 104  9.1
 62 DET N. Robertson L 46 L 110  8.6
 55 TB  Waechter     R 45 L  67 13.6
 41 COL Cook*        R 45 L 114  8.0
 99 SEA Pineiro      R 44 L  70 12.6
126 OAK Halsey       L 44 W  97  9.1
 57 BAL Bedard       L 44 W 113  7.8
 39 ANA Escobar      R 44 W 117  7.6
104 OAK Zito         L 44 L 127  7.0
 70 ATL Sosa*        R 42 W  90  9.2
 71 ATL T. Hudson*   R 42 W  91  9.1
 12 CHW Garcia       R 42 W  92  9.0
  2 MIN Radke        R 42 L 103  8.1
 44 TB  McClung      R 41 W  69 11.6
 37 TB  Fossum       L 40 W  84  9.2
 26 BOS Beckett      R 40 W  92  8.4
 49 CHW Garland      R 40 L 104  7.4
111 CHW Contreras    R 40 W 109  7.1
 53 TB  McClung      R 39 W  69 10.8
115 MIN Silva        R 38 W  71 10.2
 75 NYM Trachsel     R 38 L  88  8.2
103 OAK Voldemort    R 38 W  94  7.7
  5 TB  Waechter     R 37 W  67 10.4
 31 ANA Jeff Weaver  R 37 W  70  9.9
  3 MIN Silva        R 37 W  71  9.8
101 SEA Moyer        L 37 L  78  8.9
134 BOS Tavarez      R 37 L  95  7.3
131 CLE Byrd         R 36 L  92  7.3
 97 NYY Wang         R 36 L 123  5.4
 81 PHI Fultz        L 35 L  94  6.8
 21 NYY Wright       R 35 W  98  6.6
  1 MIN J. Santana   L 35 W 156  4.1
 64 BAL Loewen       L 34 W  80  7.7
 77 WAS Hill         R 34 W  91  6.8
124 BAL Bedard       L 32 W 113  5.0
 46 TB  Fossum       L 30 L  84  6.2
128 KC  L. Hudson    R 29 W  79  6.3
 22 NYY R. Johnson   L 29 L  91  5.4
 10 CHW Vazquez      R 29 W  93  5.3
 90 SEA Moyer        L 28 W  78  6.0
  4 TB  Fossum       L 28 L  84  5.6
 19 BAL Bedard       L 28 W  92  5.1
 47 CHW Garcia       R 28 W  92  5.1
 59 BAL Loewen       L 27 L  80  5.6
 78 WAS Patterson*   R 27 W  96  4.7
 33 OAK Blanton      R 26 W 102  4.2
 88 KC  Gobble       L 26 W 102  4.2
 98 NYY Ponson       R 25 W  60  6.7
130 KC  Odalis Perez L 24 W  77  4.9
 74 NYM O. Hernandez R 24 W  91  4.2
 96 NYY Wright       R 24 W  98  3.9
 34 OAK Saarloos     R 23 W 101  3.5
 51 BOS Beckett      R 22 W  92  3.6
 65 BAL R. Lopez     R 21 W  72  4.4
 87 KC  Elarton      R 21 W  83  3.8
 50 BOS Clement      R 20 W  71  4.1
 28 ANA E. Santana   R 20 W 102  2.9
 52 BOS Pauley       R 17 L  59  4.0
100 SEA Meche        R 16 W  95  2.3
  9 BOS Clement      R 15 W  71  2.8
112 BAL Russ Ortiz   R 14 W  46  3.9
116 MIN Garza        R 14 W  91  2.0
 13 NYY R. Johnson   L 14 W  91  2.0
  8 BOS Wells        L 14 W  94  1.9
125 OAK Haren        R 13 L 119  1.3
 16 BOS DiNardo      L 11 W  66  1.9
 79 PHI Bernero      R  8 W  80  1.0
 92 TEX Koronka      L  4 W  86  0.4

- Average Game Score: 45.1

- Average LHP: 43.2; average RHP: 46.3; no surprises there. There is a gaggle of pretty decent lefties in the low 30s (including one J. Santana), as well as a flock of very good southpaws who have been held around 50. The Jays have also saved some of their nastiest beatings for some of the weakest lefties they've seen: Boomer, DiNardo and Koronka. There are a few lefties who look out of place near the top of the list - Rheinecker, Redman and Koronka - but those performances took place after Alex Rios' awful injury. If Rios doesn't fully recover from his injury, the Jays might be shut down by a few more Infuriating Finesse Lefties than they'd like in 2007.

- Jays vs LHP: .296/.362/.458/.821 (#2 OBP, #1 OPS); vs RHP: .280/.344/.466/.810 (#7 OBP, #4 OPS)

- Average Overachievement: 10.1

- Average LHP: 9.0; average RHP: 10.7. So (keeping in mind the usual sample size caveats), it looks like... this doesnít tell us a whole lot, given how other stats quite clearly bear out how the Jays have been a very good hitting team against lefties and a very average one against righties. Perhaps they're just running into underachievers and emerging rookies in the small sample, pitchers who would play the Jays (and subsequent opponents) tougher than they would their previous opponents, and there is an opposite effect at play with the lefties. I doubt it, but it's a possibility.

- Average RHP ERA+: 93.2; average LHP ERA+: 106. In hindsight, the overachievement formula is probably still too harsh on superior pitchers and too kind to replacement-level types; a Matt Clement 63 sent it into fits of passion. So it thinks just like Joe Fan.

- 8 highest overachievers: Runelvys, Snyder, Lord Voldemort, Vazquez, Cabrera, McClung, Clement, Moehler, all righties.

- And 9 of the top 10 pitching performances against the Jays have come in the last 31 days.

Today: It's A.J. Burnett against 37-year-old journeyman righty Kevin Jarvis, recently acquired from Arizona, who's appearing for his sixth big-league team since 2003.
TDIB Saturday: Red Sox 2, Jays 1 | 112 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
js_magloire - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#154450) #
- WIth the dollar as strong as it is, Ted would be cheap to not give an extra $15 mil per year, which is what the team needs ($85 per year). This offseason we'll see if Ted is the brand-expanding businessman we all think he is or if he really cares about this team. I don't think its gonna happen, and without that breathing room, yikes (especially with inflation and the increased attendance the Jays are experiencing and all that).

-Chris Carpenter will win his 2nd Cy Young in a row this year. Someone remind me why he was let go?

-I am also sick and tired of JP's excuses. He certainly didn't act like that at the beginning of the season. If he still thought that, he would have used the money more shrewdly.

-I'm starting to think Glaus is a little overrated. He hits a lot of meaningless soloshots and is not very clutch. If this were New York, he'd be getting the A-rod treatment. The pitching on this 5-game losing streak has been - gasp - good. How has the hitting become so atrocious? Is this the Jays true colours or are they really demoralised?

-I really have confidence in Burnett tonight. I admit I'm surprised the Jays managed to lose the last 2 - going into Cleveland I knew those were the types of hitters Burnett would be pounded by, but an AL East team with a bunch of backups, I just think this is the type of team that AJ makes into fodder.

Gerry - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#154451) #

It is interesting to see that ten of the top eleven scores against the Jays have come in the last 23 games.  Bad hitting can make any pitcher look good and the Jays have not been hitting well recently.

Today in The Star JP says that "I think these guys are playing their butts off, they are trying real hard".  Sorry JP, I am not buying it.  I see no evidence of guys busting their butts and doing everything to win, I see guys going through the motions.  I see sloppy baserunning, poor fielding, bad decisions, and bad managing.  As fun as this team was to watch in the first half of the season, they have become painful to watch in the second half. 

I know things are never as bad as they look when the team isn't playing well, and I also believe that this level of play has no impact on next season.  When JP traded Schoeneweis and Hinske he basically said the Jays are out of it.  The team is playing as if they believe it.  JP says that second place would be great, It looks to me as though the players don't care about second place.  The one question to be answered is whether they are playing that way becuase they are out of it, or because after the Lilly/Gibbons spat they don't feel like it.

Gerry - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#154452) #

Chris Carpenter will win his 2nd Cy Young in a row this year. Someone remind me why he was let go?

Carpenter needed surgery and was going to miss a full season.  The Jays wanted to take him off the 40 man roster and pay him around the major league minimum.  Carpenter wanted to stay on a 40 man roster and St. Louis agreed to put him on the 40 man roster and pay him a million dollars to recuperate.  The Jays did not let Carpenter go, another team made a better offer.  Had the Jays agreed to put Carpenter on the 40 man roster they would have had to drop another player from the 40 man roster.  In retrospect it was a bad decision but at the time it looked like the Jays, again, had lost out to a team with bigger resources.

Chuck - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#154453) #
Well done, Gerry. When the Chris Carpenter saga is seen through the revisionist's prism, the gulf between fact and fiction is enormous.  Neither Carpenter's performance history nor his injury status would have given any GM reason to anticipate a transformation into a middle-of-the-rotation starter, let alone one of Cy Young caliber. St. Louis rolled the dice and won. The odds were stacked against them, though.
Paul D - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#154456) #
I see that the Carpenter comment has already been addressed.

As for this:
He hits a lot of meaningless soloshots and is not very clutch.

js, I don't mean to pick on you, but that's an incredibly stupid statment.  The man was the World Series MVP!  You literally cannot be more clutch than that.

Joanna - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#154457) #

I am a very new student of the game.  But from what I've read and what I've learned from people who know about the game, hitting is contagious.  The team traded away hitting for nothing.  This is why depth is important.  It's frustrating because the pitchers have come through and pitched well enough to win, all three in Cleaveland and these two in Boston. 

I don't think Troy is overrated.  I hate that term.  It is the most overused term.  He has delievered on his promise but he isn't a machine.  He is going to slump. But if the team had depth, one of his boys would pick up the slack.  Same could be said of Rios.  Was his offensive explosion because he had to fight for his job and it lit a fire under his ass? I don't know, but maybe.

It is so frustrating.  But I'm glad the Jays will at least attempt to re-sign Lilly.  And Vernon Wells is a star, an awesome player and the heart of the team.  Re-signing him should be a priority

Chuck - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#154458) #
But from what I've read and what I've learned from people who know about the game, hitting is contagious.

Not to nit pick, but what exactly does this expression mean? The manifestation of some players hitting well is that others will also hit well -- better, in fact, than could normally be expected?

I'm wondering if a bunch of players all hitting well at the same time isn't the confluence of random chance and, perhaps, all hitters facing the same weak pitchers. Perhaps the "hitting is contagious" explanation is little more than an attempt to scare up a cause-and-effect rationale for a series of observations, something we humans are instinctively inclined to do, even if we're not particularly good at it.

Perhaps studies have been done to support the "hitting is contagious" notion, but for my tastes, it quacks like a canard.

Gerry - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#154461) #

Call me a cynic, but here is a possible scenario re: Vernon:

Either JP knows he has to trade Vernon because Vernon doesn't want to come back, or JP wants to trade Vernon because of budget reasons, trade at the top reasons, or he needs to trade him to get a pitcher and a shortstop.   But Vernon's value will be depressed if other teams think JP has to trade him or if everyone thinks Vernon is going to Texas.  So JP has to publicly show he doesn't have to trade Vernon and that he wants to keep him.

So now JP talks about keeping Vernon and if necessary being happy with the draft picks, and he talks of getting more money from Rogers.  JP is doing this to keep Vernon's value as high as possible.  I don't see Rogers giving the Jays an extra ten million dollars so I think one big contract, or a potential big contract, has to leave town and Vernon's the guy, unless JP tradees Glaus.

John Northey - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#154464) #
"The team traded away hitting for nothing."

Uh, not to be a pain but what hitting did they trade?

Shea Hillenbrand since being traded - 259/286/446 over 139 AB's
Eric Hinske since being traded - 244/311/366 over 41 AB's

Neither of those guys would've helped lately.  Both look like cases of JP getting rid of them at the right time.  Accardo (who was gotten for Shea) has gone 19 2/3 IP with a 2.75 ERA which isn't bad.  Chulk in 14 2/3 IP has a 4.30 ERA (and 18 K's which is surprising).  To me that seems a net positive.

The offense has been frustrating, but not having Shea or Eric isn't why.  The reason for the frustration is having just 3 regulars over 800 for OPS in August (Overbay, Glaus, Molina) and 3 others below 600 (Rios, Hill, McDonald).  Actually, McDonald was at just 193/228/261 (yikes).  For the season 9 guys are over 800 (including Hinske & Hillenbrand) with just 2 semi-regulars below 600 (McDonald & Adams who have basically split the SS slot).

The drastic fall of Rios, Wells (797 OPS in August vs 948 season) & Hill (who looks like a May-July player only so far) is more the reason for the offense drop than losing Shea & Hinske.  McDonald we can't really blame as Adams was pretty much as inept with the bat this year as McDonald has been.
Ron - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#154474) #

That Toronto Sun article made me so angry I had to step away from my laptop because I was afraid I was going to smash the monitor.

Iím sick and tired of JPís excuses. Either win with the resources you have been given or quit and give somebody else the chance to do it.

 Letís break it down:

- It has been reported when JP was interviewed for the job, he told Godfrey he could win with a 50 million dollar payroll. 2 weeks ago on WWJP, he said he wasnít even sure he ever made that comment.

- When Delgado was on the roster, he explained to the fans his hands were tied because of his contract. He said once his contract was finally off the books, he could finally make some significant moves. Well Delgadoís contract came off the books, and after he acquired Koskie and Hillenbrand, he mentioned he still didnít have enough payroll flexibility to do more.

- Ted Rogers announced the Jays would have a 3yr/210 million rolling budget last off-season. During the media scrum after the announcement, he said the new budget finally allowed the Jays to get in the fight and mix it up with the Red Sox and Yanks. Paul Godfrey told the season ticket holders in the annual meeting ďThere would be panic in the streets of BostonĒ.

- Godfrey/Rogers gave JP a 5 year contract extension when he still had 2 years left on his deal. When this was announced, I made a post on this site saying it was a highly questionable move based on the fact he didnít do anything to deserve a 5 year extension and the fact he still had 2 years left on his current deal. This extension looked foolish then and it looks foolish today.

- For anybody that has been listening to the WWJP in the last month, JP mentions the realities of the payroll multiple times each show. He repeats that itís basically impossible to compete with the Red Sox and Yanks because there payroll is so much bigger than the Jays. JP wasnít this negative when the season started. Heck he was very optimistic after Rogers finally opened up his bank account. No team had a bigger jump in payroll this season compared to last season than the Jays.

- When JP was hired, he said the key was to build up the barren farm system so the club could be self sustaining. 5 years later and the Jays have one of the worst farm systems in the game. JP had mainly focused on college pitchers to restock the system. Where are these pitchers? His drafting has been poor. And yes I realize you probably need somewhere between 5-10 years to truly judge a draft, but I can only offer my thoughts on what I see right now. I donít see a Roy Halladay or Vernon Wells in any of the players JP has drafted.

- I have yet to hear JP take any responsibility for why the franchise is stuck in mediocrity. The W-L record of the JP ďeraí is worse than the Gord Ash era. JP, donít piss in my ear and tell me itís raining.

I donít know about you guys, but Iím sick and tired of sub .500 baseball. Iím sick and tired of the Jays not even playing a meaningful game on August 1st. Iím sick and tired of the fact the current Jays GM has done a poor job running my favourite team. Iím embarrassed to root for a team in which the manager challenges a player to a fight in front of his teammates. Iím embarrassed to root for a team in which the same manager in the same season scuffles with another player.

The whole Jays organization is a complete mess right now. I see no hope of the Jays improving next season under the current GM. I actually hope Ted Rogers doesnít raise the payroll because all that means is more bad signings like 5yrs/55 million for AJ Burnett and 5+ million for Molina. If by some miracle JP actually gets fired this off-season, I wonít envy the new GM. The team has a lot of money tied up to only a handful of players late in their prime years.

This season has been a complete disaster. The Jays might finish with a worse record than last season. Good luck selling season tickets.

I had been thinking about going to Toronto next year for a vacation and to catch a couple of Jays games. Under the current GM/Manager regime, I wonít spend a single penny on the Jays because frankly they donít deserve it

Pepper Moffatt - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#154480) #
While I didn't have quite the visceral reaction that Ron did and while I don't feel quite so negative, I can't really disagree with any of the points he made.
Magpie - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#154489) #
He was seriously injured, he was Gord Ash's guy, and the payroll was only $50.0 M then.

He was also eligible for arbitration, and the Jays had paid him $3.4 million in 2002. Which meant they would have had to pay him almost $3 million in 2003, knowing that he wouldn't be able to pitch.
Magpie - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#154493) #
This is all jps fault ... and he should be fired.

The Jays have gone something like 15-23 over the last six weeks, and one of the reasons for that is because the GM pulled the plug on the 2006 season, sometime during that 2-8 road trip after the All-Star Break.

Was that a mistake?

It's almost certainly cost them a chance to win 90 games. Not that 90 wins would be enough to keep playing in October.

King Ryan - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#154495) #
The idea that Reed Johnson struggles when he gets a lot of playing time is a very popular opinion, but, like most popular opinions, it just doesn't pass the test of data.  Observe the following chart.  I have plotted every month of Reed Johnson's career on this graph as a little dot.  Along the X-axis is the amount of AB's Reed received in the month, and along the Y-Axis is the OPS that Reed registered in said month.  If the theory is correct, we would see some kind of slope stretching from the top left to the bottom right:

As you can see, no such trend exists.  In fact, there is pretty much nothing to be drawn from this chart at all.  It's just a random smattering of dots.  Sometimes Reed gets 100+ AB's and performs well, sometime he receives 65 AB's and performs poorly.  Just another popular myth that doesn't properly describe reality.
Rickster - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#154497) #

King Ryan,

Great graph. Could you run a regression line or line of best fit to see if there is even a slight correlation? I'm curious, but not curious enough to gather and organize all that data, as you have already done.

King Ryan - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#154502) #
Ask and ye shall receive:

Maybe I shouldn't have been so hasty, heh.

Craig B - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#154516) #
He will likely post an .875 to .925 OPS for the next seven to eight years.

I'll take that bet.  How much?
Magpie - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#154517) #
[Shealy] was a much better minor league hitter than Overbay.

Much better? Much better? This would seem to require that you believe that hitting .328 with 26 HRs at age 26 (in Colorado Springs, mind you) as Shealy did  is much more impressive than hitting .343 with 19 HRs at age 25 as Overbay did.

Why you would actually believe such a thing is unclear, unless you own Ryan Shealy's rookie card..

Magpie - Saturday, September 02 2006 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#154518) #
I'll take that bet.

Shealy will not have enough at bats in a season seven or eight years from now to qualify.... you need mandatory minimums or something.
Magpie - Sunday, September 03 2006 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#154542) #

Phillies | Howard Faces Uncertain Future
Mon, 6 Dec 2004 01:39:18 -0800

According to The Philadelphia Inquirer's Todd Zolecki, Philadelphia Phillies 1B/OF prospect Ryan Howard faces an uncertain future with the ballclub because his path to the big leagues is blocked by 1B Jim Thome, among others. Still, the team refuses to entertain trade talks. "I would think that the possibilities of trading Howard are fairly remote," Phillies general manager Ed Wade said. "We're not viewing him as a huge trading chip right now because we still have options remaining and he's the type of guy, if we get to the point of wanting to move him, it's going to have to be something very significant."

Pepper Moffatt - Sunday, September 03 2006 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#154543) #
I was one of the ones who thought Ryan Howard was vastly overrated, given his advanced age and minor league performance (striking out in 30% of his at-bats).  He's certainly made a believer out of me, though I still don't think he'll age too well.  For the next few years, though, he'll likely continue his Boog Powell-esque performance.

That being said, what evidence does anyone have that Howard was avaialble, other than the fact he asked to be traded?

Speaking of young players who were available, this article by Mark Healey suggests that J.P. once turned down a Jose Cruz Jr. for David Wright swap.  Ouch!

Pepper Moffatt - Sunday, September 03 2006 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#154547) #
No, but generally when a guy's on the trading block, there's all kinds of noise about it.  Like when the Angels were peddling Adam Kennedy, for example.

Pepper Moffatt - Sunday, September 03 2006 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#154555) #
"There was some, Lilly for Howard.  Granted it didn't quite approach the level of Kennedy/Hillenbrand."

Did any of those rumours go beyond people on the internet (or call-radio shows) saying "Wouldn't it be cool if?"

If we're going to use that standard, we could say that JP had a chance to trade Vernon Wells for A-Rod and he passed it up.
Pepper Moffatt - Sunday, September 03 2006 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#154558) #
Hmm.. this guy says not only was that trade offered, but JP turned it down:

So maybe there *was* something to it.
Pepper Moffatt - Sunday, September 03 2006 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#154559) #
Wow.. even Gammons wrote about the possibility of a trade:

Hey, J.P. Ricciardi has the same deal. When, for instance, the Phillies called about a Ryan Howard-Ted Lilly deal, Ricciardi said he won't trade Lilly. Still, stories keep cropping up. "I'm not trading Lilly," says the Blue Jays GM. "He's signed through next year to a reasonable contract, he's a starting pitcher and we're trying to build a winning atmosphere for the kids like Aaron Hill and Russ Adams, who are winning players who need to be playing in a winning atmosphere."

I totally take back my skepticism.

Frank Markotich - Monday, September 04 2006 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#154591) #

Jose Cruz was non-tendered by the Blue Jays at the end od the 2002 season, which was JP's first year. Wright was drafted by the Mets in June 2001, and not eligible to be traded (I believe) until mid-2002.

I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't have traded Cruz when the team was in the middle of a salary-dumping mode only to non-tender him later. I'm very very skeptical of this rumour.

CaramonLS - Monday, September 04 2006 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#154595) #
Heres the Bob Elliot Link.

Interesting to note how it is written (as fact, not opinion or with 'sources').

Pepper Moffatt - Monday, September 04 2006 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#154598) #
Ouch.. not only could have JP got Wright, but he could have got Rafael Soriano instead (that is, if you believe Elliott).  That really stings.

Thanks for the link Caramon.

Craig B - Tuesday, September 05 2006 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#154673) #
As I said to Coach Kent at the time, there is absolutely no way on Earth that Cora's "home run" was not a four-base error on Rios. 
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