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The sandwich round of the 2007 draft is going to be a long one.

EDIT (4:45 Fri): The order of the sandwich round was incorrectly presented earlier. It is correct now (I think).


How long? It's not set in stone yet, but potentially it'll be up to 36 picks, and it'll be at least 25 picks long. By my count there's 11 players remaining who were offered arbitration, but didn't accept. They would give their former team a pick if they switched teams.

As I recently found out, the order of the picks is not on the Elias rankings. Many thanks to the e-mailer who pointed out the correct ordering:

The order of selection in the compensation round does not follow the Elias rankings. The selection order in the compensation round follows the same order as the general order of selection (worst record to best). For example if Tampa Bay were to lose a type 'A' or type 'B' free agent, they would have the first selection in the compensation round regardless of where that free agent ranked according to Elias. The next selection would belong to the next highest drafting team that lost an 'A' or 'B' free agent. In looking at the current situation, the Cubs would have pick #31 based on their 3rd place in the selection order (TB and KC did not lose any free agents deemed worthy of compensation) for losing Juan Pierre. Pick #32 would go to Washington for Soriano, pick #33 to Arizona for Counsell and so on.

In the event a team, like the Blue Jays this year, loses multiple free agents the selection order goes through an entire rotation, then the order would repeat itself, again in reverse order of finish, for any teams that lost a second free agent, then again for a third free agent and so on and so forth.

Here's the list, and the order of the picks:

Pick   Team   Player Lost
1 Chicago  Pierre
2 Washington  Soriano
3 Arizona  Counsell
4 San Francisco  Schmidt
5 Seattle  Meche
6 Atlanta  Baez
7 Cincinnati  Aurilia
8 Texas  Matthews
9 Philadelphia  Dellucci
10 Boston  Gonzalez
11 Toronto  Speier
12 Dodgers  Lugo
13 San Diego  Roberts
14 Angels  Kennedy
15 Oakland  Thomas
16 Detroit  Walker
17 NY Mets Hernandez
     
18 Washington  Guillen
19 San Francisco  Alou
20 Texas  DeRosa
21 Toronto  Catalonotto
22 San Diego Williams
     
23 San Francisco  Stanton
24 Texas C Lee
25 Toronto  Lilly


There's 11 players remaining that could add to the sandwich round:
Barry Zito
Jeff Suppan
Mark Mulder
David Wells
Ron Villone
Chan Ho Park
Scott Schoeneweis
Miguel Batista
Keith Foulke
Alan Embree
Ryan Klesko

So the sandwich round will likely end up being around 30 picks, which effectively makes it the draft's 2nd round. This past year the sandwich round was 14 picks long and 18 and 11 picks the two years before.

At this point the Jays have the Rangers first round pick, #16 overall. However, this will drop to the Rangers second round pick if they Zito (or Suppan). That would drop the Jays from #16 to around #76.

Here are the 8 picks the Jays have at the moment in the first 3 rounds (again, this can, and likely will, change slightly based on the remaining free agents in above):
#16 (from the Rangers)
#21 (own 1st round pick)
#42 (for Speier)
#52 (for Cat)
#55 (for Lilly)
#71 (own 2nd round pick)
#74 (from the Angels)
#101 (own 3rd round pick)
The Star had a short article this morning, quoting Jays scouting director Jon Lalonde.
"I'm excited,'' said scouting director Jon Lalonde. "I think it's going to be a good (draft) year, strongest at high school position players, weakest at college-level pitchers. It's a good time for us to get some young guys (high schoolers) and just let 'em play ... percolate, as they say.''
The strengths and weaknesses of the draft according to Lalonde don't match up with BA's top 50 list. Here's a breakdown of BA's top 50:
  • 17 college pitchers
  • 8 college hitters
  • 11 high school hitters
  • 14 high school pitchers
Ricciardi also mentioned the Jays taking high school players in the 07 draft as well. I suspect that the success of Travis Snider played a part in this thinking. What will really be interesting is to see if the Jays venture into the high school pitching waters.
Biggest.Sandwich.Ever | 18 comments | Create New Account
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Jordan - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 10:03 AM EST (#160429) #

If the Jays draft a high-school pitcher, I fully expect to turn around and see dogs and cats living together. The world will officially have gone Loopy McNutbar.

So the sandwich round will likely end up being around 30 picks, which effectively makes it the draft's 2nd round. 

This is a significant point that shouldn't be overlooked. The expansion of the "sandwich round" has proportionately reduced the impact of the draft's normal 2nd and 3rd rounds, such that picks in these rounds become that much less significant. I have a feeling the Rangers aren't done yet, and that the Catalanotto first-rounder could yet go somewhere else. The Rangers' 2nd-rounder, as Pistol points out, is in reality a third-round pick, and therefore that much less valuable. Cross your fingers that the Mets get Barry Zito.

This development also increases the significance of the Elias rankings of free agents, since they help determine where a team that loses a Type-A player ends up in the sandwich round. When Justin Speier rates ahead of Juliio Lugo, Rich Aurilia comes ahead of Frank Thomas, and Moises Alou is considered the most valuable free agent on the market, something needs to be recalculated.

MatO - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 10:06 AM EST (#160430) #

The A's have dipped into the HS pitching pool the last 2 years so it wouldn't surprise me if the Jays follow suit since we know that Beane and JP talk.

Slot money for sandwich picks in the past has been about $1M.  I wonder if that will still hold for what are mostly going to be glorified 2nd rounders.  The Jays'  top 7 picks as they stand will cost about $7-8M to sign if slot money stays the same and they don't go the cheapo Moneyball route where the A's couldn't afford to sign all their extra picks for slot money.  That's $6M more than the past year's draft (Snider alone).  This cost may have been the main reason that Molina wasn't offered arbitration even though he was on the verge of signing with SF.  The sandwich and a 2nd may have added another $1.5M to the total.

Mark - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 10:22 AM EST (#160434) #
Thanks for putting the list up, trying to figure out were the Jays would have picks was giving me a headache. It looks like the Giants will have 5 picks in the top 35. They will be an interesting team to watch around draft time. It also looks like there are a lot of former Rangers, Reds and Padres on that list. Although I have a feeling David Wells will either re-sign in SD or retire.
Pistol - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 10:27 AM EST (#160438) #
The Jays'  top 7 picks as they stand will cost about $7-8M to sign if slot money stays the same and they don't go the cheapo Moneyball route where the A's couldn't afford to sign all their extra picks for slot money.

Given the increasing costs of free agents, draft picks become even more valuable.  Going the 'cheapo' route would be a very shortsighted decision (not that the Jays have given any indication of that).  Getting just one year of a starting pitcher at a 4.50 ERA for 200 innings would justify the cost of an entire draft.
Mike Green - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 10:36 AM EST (#160440) #
It is unfortunately common practice for teams to have separate payroll and draft budgets. This lack of flexibility impedes general managers in making the most efficient decisions in response to changing conditions.
Craig B - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 10:54 AM EST (#160442) #

"Biggest.Sandwich.Ever "

I became very aroused reading this title; imagine my disappointment when I found it was about some stupid amateur baseball draft.

Mick Doherty - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 11:10 AM EST (#160444) #
The top 10 ranked unsigned FAs are all pitchers? 10 of the 11 potential "italicized" names -- all but Ryan Klesko -- are pitchers?

Who'd a thunk?
Pistol - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 11:13 AM EST (#160445) #
I became very aroused reading this title

Plus, a picture of a pint of beer!
Marc Hulet - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 02:07 PM EST (#160468) #
An article at BA mentioned that there are rumours floating around that the Jays are considering a Gulf Coast League team for the 2007 season.

They may wait as long as possible to decide though (and gauge what prospects they're looking at), since it is easy to set up a team with Dunedin stadium already there and owned by the Jays.
Gerry - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 03:59 PM EST (#160481) #

I received some clarification that the order of selection in the sandwich round is different than stated above.  Here is what happens:

The selection order in the compensation round follows the same order as the general order of selection (worst record to best). For example if Tampa Bay were to lose a type 'A' or type 'B' free agent, they would have the first selection in the compensation round regardless of where that free agent ranked according to Elias. The next selection would belong to the next highest drafting team that lost an 'A' or 'B' free agent. In looking at the current situation, the Cubs would have pick #31 based on their 3rd place in the selection order (TB and KC did not lose any free agents deemed worthy of compensation) for losing Juan Pierre. Pick #32 would go to Washington for Soriano, pick #33 to Arizona for Counsell and so on.

If we assume that 20 teams lost players then the Jays would likely pick around #10 in the sandwich round, then at 24 and 28, approx.  Not quite as good as we thought.

timpinder - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 04:56 PM EST (#160485) #

Gerry,

I want to make sure that I understand correctly.  Are you saying that as it stands now the Jays would get (approximately) the 40th, 54th and 58th picks, NOT the 38th, 46th and 50th picks?

Thanks.

Pistol - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 04:57 PM EST (#160486) #
The order presented before was incorrect.  It has been updated to reflect the correct ordering (based on team records, not Elias).
Gerry - Friday, December 08 2006 @ 05:01 PM EST (#160487) #

Pistol has done the math and he says the Jays have the 42nd, 52nd and 55th picks.

Slim Jim - Tuesday, December 12 2006 @ 10:44 AM EST (#160648) #
Just a comment on the order you've presented. Houston is listed as having the 9th selection in the sandwich round for Carlos Lee. This is inaccurate. Texas would receive the compensation pick for losing Lee, not the Astros for signing him. This slides everything forward by one pick so the Blue Jays would have the 41st, 51st and 55th picks according to the chart.
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