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Burnett vs Robertson, at 1:05 this afternoon. Curse these weekday afternoon games!


The Blue Jays have a lineup that ought to make LH pitchers restless and fitful the night before. Nate Robertson is pretty tough on LH batters, but that's a skill not likely to be of much help to him today. On the other hand, Reed Johnson (1-17) and Vernon Wells (3-16) have been more or less helpless against him.

But Aaron Hill - 8-10 against Robertson? I might hit him second today....

Yes, I believe in batter-pitcher matchups.

4 April 2007: In Theory | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
MrElbertBuffin - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#165200) #
Here's the latest scandal in Blue Jays land.

Fantastic work, Television Bureau of Canada.  Front page of the Ontario Edition of the Globe and Mail has to make JP smile, though.  Any publicity is good publicity, I suppose. 

Anyone interested in seeing this heinous act of domestic violence, feel free to click here.  (Warning, the following clip contains humour, and is intended for a fun loving audience.  Fun police are advised not to watch.)


Flex - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#165202) #
The very first moment I saw that commercial, I thought "uh oh." As a dad, it rubbed me the wrong way, and I knew it would not be well received.

That said, I think it's ridiculous for the Globe to put it on the front page. There are many much more important things going on in the world.

timpinder - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#165204) #

Should we be at all worried that Burnett's oft-injured arm will be working today in flurries and 6 degrees celcius, that will feel 0 degrees?  Or am I concerned for nothing?

Thomas - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#165205) #
I never would have connected child abuse with the commercial. I've seen it several times and at no time did I ever think, "Uh oh, he's abusing that kid." Frank hits him in the stomach with the pillow and the kid gets up afterwards and is clearly fine. How many dads engage in pillow fights or mess around wrestling with their children? Probably a sizable percentage.

 I guess the problem is with knocking him off the bed, but the whole thing is done in the style of the Blue Jays commercials of the last few years and is clearly tongue-in-cheek. I don't think the first reaction of the majority of people is that the Blue Jays are encouraging or condone child abuse. Same with the fuss about the Burnett commercial. I understand the need to monitor commercials, but there are more dangerous commercials already on TV in my mind and this is a lot of fuss about a relatively minor matter.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#165206) #
Baseball Reference has Aaron Hill at 7-8 (including a homer and a double) against Robertson.  I normally do not believe in batter-pitcher matchups, but that's pretty extreme. The funny thing is that he's 2-17 against Mark Hendrickson, another soft-tossing lefty.  Maybe it's the height that makes the difference, or maybe it's just dumb luck.
Barry Bonnell - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#165208) #

Should we be at all worried that Burnett's oft-injured arm will be working today in flurries and 6 degrees celcius, that will feel 0 degrees?  Or am I concerned for nothing?

I'm worried. But then again I always worry about injury when Burnett is pitching.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#165211) #
In the print edition of today's Globe, there's an interview with Reed Johnson.  Sparky says that he likes having Overbay, Wells and Thomas hitting behind him because they don't mind taking a pitch (and in his words, giving up "count leverage") so he can run. 

"Count leverage"?  Statistical analysis finds its way right down to ground level.

VBF - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#165213) #

Should we be at all worried that Burnett's oft-injured arm will be working today in flurries and 6 degrees celcius, that will feel 0 degrees?  Or am I concerned for nothing?

Well for what it's worth, the last time AJ pitched in colder, wetter environments, it was in Cleveland in late August last year. I was at the game and it seemed he was having trouble control his breaking balls the whole game. In fact, he seemed to locate his control seemed to come back when the rain had subsided.

In terms of this Globe/Jays/Commercial publicity, it seems completely ridiculous, as many have said. And while we as hardcore fans have to understand that we're not exactly the market the Jays are targeting towards (even thugh these adsa re running on sports channels), one has to ask what a pillow fight has to do with baseball. It's a very broken connection. But in any event, the commercial is harmless. The good news is that this ad will generate a little bit of buzz and when people are watching TV tonight, they will watch the ad, realize its harmlessness, and remember it. This will be a good thing.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#165214) #

Around the majors, today's starting pitchers include:

  • Doug Davis
  • Ted Lilly
  • Miguel Batista
  • Woody Williams

You could do worse than that for a rotation. It's Ex-Jays day in MLB!

SheldonL - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#165226) #

Opening day jitters combined with cold, windy weather probably brought about the terrible state of affairs that was Burnett's performance today. But I could help but wonder why Burnett didn't have long sleeves on considering that the temperature reached 2 degrees. It could have helped, no?

Gibby and J.P have to take better care of their pitchers when the weather is very cold as it was today.

VBF - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#165229) #
I have no idea why Stairs didn't pinch hit for Smith. Despite the fact that I quite like him, I hope Smith doesn't become one of those guys that Gibby has this blind trust for based on a few successful appearances.
Ron - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#165230) #
I cringed when I saw Zambrano come out to start the 8th. He couldn't find the strike zone without binoculars in the 7th inning. When the roof was starting to cave in the 8th inning for the Tigers, why wasn't Zumaya brought in? Maybe he was too busy playing Guitar Hero 2 for the 360.

I'm extremeley disappointed to see AJ and Marcum pitch so poorly, but I give credit to the Jays (and the wind) for never giving up. It's time to take 2 out of 3 tommorow.


Craig B - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#165233) #

Mike D and I were watching the ninth and having coffee, VBF, and the same thing occurred to me, but Smith is a lefthanded hitter too and as Mike pointed out to me, he did just get a hit (really a single and a two-base error, not a triple, though).  I think holding Stairs back for a better matchup is defensible.  Not sure if I agree with hitting Johnson against Jones after that, though.  I'd have figured you'd do one or the other - PH Stairs for Smith and replace with McDonald, or PH Stairs for Johnson to get the platoon advantage.

I guess Reed is a platoon player no more.

Jdog - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#165236) #
Very frustrated with Marcum!  From what I have read he is supposed to be a finesse/ control pitcher who pounds the strike zone, i'm assuming he did that in the minors?? His major league numbers from last year show a fairly high BB/IP ratio, and from today's game I guess we have to assume this trend will continue. The walk of Monroe with the bases loaded was very frustrating, when the team is down big there is no excuse for walking a guy with the bases juiced, especially a batter who has looked lost at the plate to begin the year. So you Marcum lovers, are walks  going to haunt him all year or is this just an adjustment period for him?
VBF - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#165237) #
I totally understand how the decision to keep Smith in was defensible, but it's completely reasonable to argue that Stairs' .353 OBP against righties in the last three years would have helped much more than the probability of Smith getting on base. Stairs has been around the league with Jones and has seen him before. I want the grizzled veteran in that situation.

Cry bloody murder when people question the choice of deodorant of Gibbons, but not when there's an actually valid argument being raised.

As my friend says, these games are the gateway drug of heroine. Oh well, they put up a heck of a fight. Somebody get A.J. a Dome.

Gitz - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#165238) #
Baseball Reference has Aaron Hill at 7-8 (including a homer and a double) against Robertson.  I normally do not believe in batter-pitcher matchups, but that's pretty extreme. The funny thing is that he's 2-17 against Mark Hendrickson, another soft-tossing lefty.  Maybe it's the height that makes the difference, or maybe it's just dumb luck.

Robertson can hit 90 MPH, and a little above, whereas Hendrickson would be lucky to top out at 85. They're different pitchers. And maybe Hill has done his damage against Second-Half Nate Robertson, a different character altogether than First-Half Nate.



ayjackson - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#165239) #

Reed is great at laying bats on cut fastballs and the like on the outside part of the plate and serving them into right field.  It just so happened the Jones got two of them in great spots and made it difficult for Reed.  Koudos to Jones - better luck next time.

 

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#165242) #
Losing is always painful--for me, the sinking feeling started with AJ's leadoff walk in the 3rd--but it's good to see the bats break out. Despite Marcum's shaky beginning, the bullpen did a credible job, especially considering the jam Burnett left behind: down 3-0, bases loaded, chilly weather and no one out.

It would be huge to win the rubber match (first series of the year, in Detroit, coming off a tough loss).
timpinder - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#165245) #

I'm not going to hold anything against Burnett or Marcum based on their performances today.  Now, I'm not a pitcher and I've only ever thrown heaters and curves playing "park-ball" with tennis balls, but from what I've heard, it's pretty tough to command your pitches, particularly breaking pitches, in very cold weather. 

jeff mcl - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#165246) #
I was going to post something about AJ Burnett and "phoning it in" for some pretty early exits, but then I had a look at just how bad he's been in his losses over his career.   The numbers I came up with were sort of surprising; they show that apparently Burnett's losses are, on average, a little bit less ugly than Halladay's.  I threw Josh Beckett in for good measure.   I don't know if that makes anyone feel any better about this afternoon's performance or not, but what the heck:

AJ Burnett
In his 58 losses:
2 CG
5.2 IP/start
6.48 ERA
1.6 K/BB
Roy Halladay
In his 48 losses:

2 CG
5.2 IP/start
7.13 ERA
2.1 K/BB
Josh Beckett
In his 45 losses: 
O CG
5 IP/start
7.65
ERA
2.1 K/BB



Mike Green - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#165247) #
I wondered about the original decision to pinch-hit with Smith, rather than Stairs, with the bases loaded.  That worked out pretty well, though, and I am not really surprised that Gibbons rode the hot hand.  It is a pattern.

It's hard to see much of a role for John McDonald on this club if Gibbons plans on using Smith in this fashion.  As a number of said in the Roundtable, it would probably be preferable to pinch-hit Stairs and sub in McDonald.  




greenfrog - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#165248) #
Mike: I agree about McDonald. I'm looking forward to having Lind instead of McDonald on the bench this summer. Btw, anyone know exactly when Lind's service clock no longer becomes an issue for the Jays? May? June? July?
Michael - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#165249) #
True story:  Today I was at work starting a meeting at ~11:30 am PT and asked a coworker with a laptop to put up the Jays score.  He said: "You will not like it" and showed that it was 8-0 in the bottom of the 3rd.  I said, "Hmm, knowing the Jays they'll probably allow another 2 runs and score 9 to lose 10-9".  Sure enough, when our meeting ended 3.5 hours later that was exactly what had happened.
Joanna - Wednesday, April 04 2007 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#165250) #

Okay, that was a bit of a crazy one.  And I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of ones like that this season.  I didn't see any of Burnett's pitching (I watched from the 5th on) but judging from the box score and the reports, it was a command thing.  Burnett is a touch/ feel guy and the cold might have effected that.  Walks and bloop singles, oy. And his whole .500 pitcher stigma might be between his ears.  He has said that he doesn't need Roy's "The Mental ABC's of Pitching" but maybe Roy should hit him with it. Hard. Until AJ submits and reads it. 

And, I'm sorry, but Frank Thomas' commercial is FUNNY!  The kid gets up at the end.  And it's a light mood.  Lyle's feature him whipping a bouquet of flowers at a woman.  Is that going to be pulled too?  Roy's commercial last year was kinda mean to the kids too.  Some of those kids' could've been allergic, Doc!!!  Peyton Manning's United Way SNL thing was funny too.  Love the pro-athlete's being mean to the kids!

 

 

actionjackson - Thursday, April 05 2007 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#165253) #
Positives from todays "Katie bar the door" game as good ole' Tom Cheek used to call them:

1) Jeremy Accardo's brilliant outing, during which Ashby noted his splitter (the new pitch in his arsenal) was particularly effective.

2) Jason Frasor's Houdini act in the bottom of the 8th inning, without which Victor Zambrano joins A.J. in the goat circle, and the ninth inning loses its tension.

3) The "Fighting Jays" showed their true colours and earned that nickname today. There will be tough decisions in the future for Gibby when the team gets behind by a lot (hopefully not often, but it happens) re: leaving in the starting nine or bringing in backups. Obviously, when you haven't played 2 games in a row in a while, you leave in the starters, but I wonder what deficit will it take for him to yank them?

4) Who would've thunk that Aaron Hill would hit the first longball of the year? I see a 15-20 homerun season and a gold glove somewhere in his career and sooner rather than later. Perhaps a similar power development curve to Alexis Israel Rios? I'd have to qualify that by saying Hill doesn't have anywhere near the same homerun ceiling, but in terms of starting small in his first season, getting better in his first full season and then... hey, it's fun to dream.

Craig B - Thursday, April 05 2007 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#165255) #

Couple of outstanding points from jeff mcl and actionjackson... Jeff touched on the fact that A.J. is a very consistent pitcher.  I've done other analyses of him that have found this to be the case.  You'd think that a "free spirit" like A.J. (that's what we called guys like him in the old days) would tend more to inconsistency, but that's not backed up by his record.

Ac-jack mentioned Frasor's spectacular inning to bail out Mr. Guidance Systems (wow, I already can't stand Zambrano... he's my new Edgardo Alfonzo) and that shouldn't go without mentioning.  His work on Granderson for the third out was particularly fine.

timpinder - Thursday, April 05 2007 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#165256) #

Craig B,

I'm with you on Zambrano.  A guy with a career 5.03 BB/9 rate is not somebody I want to see coming out of the bullpen, especially if it's in a tight game with runners on.  It's not like he's Mike Gonzalez and makes up for it with a tonne of K's either.  Zambrano's career K/9 rate is 6.76.  He MIGHT have some value as a back-end starter, but he's going to make me pull out all of my hair as long as he's in the pen, I just know it.

Pistol - Thursday, April 05 2007 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#165259) #
Btw, anyone know exactly when Lind's service clock no longer becomes an issue for the Jays? May? June? July?

Well, I don't think service time is an issue here.  The Jays don't have a history of keeping guys down under Ricciardi - Rios was a Super Two this year because the Jays didn't care about his service time when they recalled him.  Plus, the Jays obviously have faith in Johnson (who didn't have much of a platoon split last year).  If they didn't you'd think they would have had Stairs pinch hitting for him yesterday in the last AB.

Anyway, this article goes through waivers, service time and options.   Some highlights, related to this:
  • One year of major league service is defined as 172 days of service, but a major league season actually runs around 183 days. This means that a team that wishes to hold a player in the minors long enough to push his free agency date back by one season must wait at least eleven days (and probably about two weeks, just to be safe) before recalling him.
  • The cutoff for "super-two" status..... is usually somewhere between 2.130 and 2.135; to the best of my knowledge, it's never been below 2.120, so a player recalled after June 5th or so is in the clear.
If I interpret this correctly, since Lind was recalled last September those dates would be pushed back by about a month.  So to delay his free agency by a year the Jays would need to wait until about May 15th, and to make sure he wasn't a Super Two the Jays would need to wait until about July 1st.

Jonny German - Thursday, April 05 2007 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#165262) #
Something I think is commonly misunderstood about Super-2 status is that a player who qualifies for it does NOT end up being controlled by his original team for fewer seasons. There are basically 3 scenarios:
 
1) Player's first 3 years in the majors are all complete seasons.
 
Year 1: Minimum
Year 2: Minimum
Year 3: Minimum
Year 4: Arbitration
Year 5: Arbitration
Year 6: Arbitration
Year 7: Free agent
 
Where 'Minimum' is actually 'Whatever the team chooses to pay him'.
 
2) Player's first 3 years in the majors are all NOT complete seasons, but he qualifies as a Super-2.
 
Year 1: Minimum
Year 2: Minimum
Year 3: Minimum
Year 4: Arbitration
Year 5: Arbitration
Year 6: Arbitration
Year 7: Arbitration
Year 8: Free agent
 
3) Player's first 3 years in the majors are all NOT complete seasons and he does NOT qualify as a Super-2.
 
Year 1: Minimum
Year 2: Minimum
Year 3: Minimum
Year 4: Minimum
Year 5: Arbitration
Year 6: Arbitration
Year 7: Arbitration
Year 8: Free agent
 
In scenarios 2 and 3, the player is over 3 years of total service time by the end of year 4, and over 6 years of service time by the end of year 7. I'm not entirely clear on the rules if these things are not true.
 
I believe Pistol's interpretation is correct - Lind could become a free agent a year earlier if called up before ~May 15, and could be Super-2 eligible if called up before ~July 1.
Pistol - Thursday, April 05 2007 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#165283) #
Something I think is commonly misunderstood about Super-2 status is that a player who qualifies for it does NOT end up being controlled by his original team for fewer seasons

But as a Super Two you're going to be paying more for the player in years 3-6 than you would if that player was not a Super Two.

Anyone else notice that Baseball-Reference is updating player stats during the season now?  Pretty cool.
4 April 2007: In Theory | 33 comments | Create New Account
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