From the last thread, I appreciate greenfrog's trade talk. It sure beats last June, when we were talking about cleaning house and trading everyone.

Skenes probably won't happen. If there was a couple of big trades out there, I have a feeling this will be a Mike Trout trade deadline. His value is depreciating, and the Angels have to be desperate to recoup anything before his production goes completely off a cliff. The Angels will probably not be good again for awhile, so you would think that he has to be thinking about accepting a trade to a team that has a chance. Would the Jays be in that conversation? Certainly they have the money, but the big bucks they may have to save for a bit of a rebuild of the pitching rotation next year and re-signing Bichette.

Alcantara has been bad in his return season but if he makes a comeback, he's likely to get dealt. The Jays will have lots of competition, I just hope to hell he doesn't go to the Rays or Yankees.

With the Tigers running away with the Central, the Guardians have fallen off a bit, but I don't see them parting with Jose Ramirez, who has always seemed like a slam dunk for the Jays. That would be an amazing pickup, though.

Aaron Civale, Brewers SP recently removed from their rotation and requesting a trade, was just traded to the White Sox for busted top prospect AAA 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn.

The Brewers also sent the prorated amount of 2.15 million or so to offset Civale's 8 mil salary. Civale is a rental as he's in his last arb year. Vaughn has been awful in both the majors and AAA, is making under 6 mil with over 4 years of service time and is likely a non-tender candidate.

Don't know much about Civale personally. He's 30 and was traded from TB to the Brewers last year in July for a prospect. He was previously traded from Cleveland to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo.

He apparently one horrendous to start the year, went on the IL, then had returned for 4 decent ones with an ERA/FIP under 4.00 upon his return. But apparently Milwaukee has a deep rotation and wanted to call up a top SP prospect.

I get annoyed sometimes whenever a league transaction occurs and some Jays fans complain the FO wasn't involved as though everything takes place in a vacuum.

But the acquisition cost here seems quite low. Vaughn seems included purely as a salary offset. Milwaukee actually paid a little bit of salary to open up Civale's roster spot with no actual prospect return.

The White Sox, who apparently have an awful rotation full of Rule 5 guys, seem to be strategically acting as a placeholder for Civale to get him some starts before shipping him out again at the trade deadline. Otherwise it makes little sense to trade for Civale as a rental for a club that's been out of the pennant race since April.

Given the Jays are essentially running a 3.5 man rotation with the only internal relief being a miraculous recovery of Scherzer or Manoah, Adam Macko and a very crispy looking Spencer Turnbull, I'm surprised the acquisition cost and league interest in Civale was so low.

This tells me that either Toronto's pro scouts really rated Civale poorly compared to internal options.

Or that the Jays have less budget room left than they are letting on and weren't interested at all in adding Civale's 5+ million or so remaining obligations.

Thanks, Petey. It’s remarkable how much better this Blue Jays season has been compared to 2024.

UO mentioned Chris Sale as a potential trade target. Good suggestion. I guess his availability would depend on whether Atlanta sees him as essential to their 2026 season, as they have an $18m club option on him for that year.

"but the big bucks they may have to save for a bit of a rebuild of the pitching rotation next year and re-signing Bichette."

Agree on the pitching, but I'm really wondering about Bo. I know in the past he was adamant about wanting to play short. But he's a very poor SS, a poor baserunner and has been a good, but no longer great bat. Convince me why he should be re-signed.

I'm sure the Jays have some payroll wiggle room to add at the deadline, but there's going to be a limit to what they can spend. I can understand not wanting to spend millions (remaining on Civale's deal) on a #5/depth starter. They should be aiming a lot higher. Hopefully it's not too much longer before they are pencilling Scherzer into the mix. Lauer/Turnbull might be able to bide the Jays some time. It is Francis that is killing them, so Max really needs to come back and take Bowden's spot.

Alcantara is still my favorite target. He makes $17M in 2025, $17M in 2026, and then a team option for $21M in 2027 ($2M buyout). It's a very reasonable deal given his upside. Sale is another good target, but I believe he has a NTC, so that might be harder to pull off even if Atkins/AA could work out a trade. The Jays don't need a #4 SP, they need a starter who can start one of the first 2 games of a playoff series. Alcantara might be their best hope unless I'm missing a potentially available top end SP. I'd prefer to hold on to Nimmala and Yesavage, and I think the Jays would too, so whether they have enough beyond that to make a deal like that is the question.

Pooks I think the answer there is both:

a) Scherzer is expected to be back, without any miraculous recovery. (btw he's pitching tonight in the Free MILBTV game, so anyone can watch him tonight if they want), and

b) the FO probably doesn't see Civale as any upgrade over the likes of Lauer/Turnbull/Francis....and tbh i tend to agree with that, except for maybe the Francis part (maybe).


Career

Civale (30): 122gms, 5.4ip/gm, 99era-, 102fip-, 99xfip-, 2.4war/32gms
Turnbull (32): 79gms, 4.5ip/gm, 96era-, 87fip-, 99xfip-, 2.5war/32gms
Lauer (30): 129gms, 4.9ip/gm, 102era-, 109fip-, 108xfip-, 1.4war/32gms
Francis (29): 61gms, 3.3ip/gm, 97era-, 123fip-, 106xfip-, 0.6war/32gms

Last 2yrs

Civale (30): 36gms, 5.1ip/gm, 111era-, 120fip-, 108xfip-, 1.2war/32gms
Turnbull (32): 18gms, 3.1ip/gm, 62era-, 90fip-, 93xfip-, 2.3war/32gms
Lauer (30): 9gms, 3.4ip/gm, 60era-, 101fip-, 109xfip-, 1.4war/32gms
Francis (29): 40gms, 4.1ip/gm, 109era-, 130fip-, 109xfip-, 0.5war/32gms

Fangraphs Combined Rest of Year Projections

Civale (30): 23gms, 1.9ip/gm, 4.29era, 4.29fip, 0.25war
Turnbull (32): 32gms, 2.0ip/gm, 4.04era, 3.98fip, 0.40war
Lauer (30): 28gms, 1.6ip/gm, 4.33era, 4.48fip, 0.15war
Francis (29): 30gms, 2.6ip/gm, 4.72era, 4.81fip, 0.20war

To hypobole’s point about Bichette, the Jays seem particularly well suited to reallocate dollars away from SS into pitching. They have Gimenez and Clement with Jimenez (once healthy) coming. Once defense and base running are considered, I think either Gimenez or Clement can give you something in the neighborhood of what Bichette (as a SS) may offer.

Are you using WAR again to value SS without factoring in the reality that we need offense to win games?

"the Jays seem particularly well suited to reallocate dollars away from SS into pitching ..."

I support the idea of trading Bichette for pitching given our current roster and (seemingly) the unlikeliness of Bichette signing a long term deal here. It all makes sense to me.

While dWAR is based off of metrics that are not necessarily accurate representations of defense (as defense is much harder to quantify), Nigel didn't say anything about WAR.

Another interesting aspect of the Civale trade when evaluating the current SP market is that he essentially has negative value.

The Brewers couldn't even get salary relief for Civale. They had to send 2.15 million prorated to offset salaries and assume a dead money 5.85 million contract in Vaughn for a AAA 1B who isn't hitting.

It seems the White Sox were the best partner because they were willing to do the deal immediately and had an appropriate bad contract in Vaughn to make the money work.

But all the analysis of the trade suggests it's a shrewd move by the White Sox to acquire an asset to flip in 6 weeks at the deadline for essentially free.

But this assumption is predicated on Civale's stock skyrocketing somehow between now & the deadline.

Why would a league-average-or-below SP go from having negative value in having to pay another team to take him vs actually being worth a future asset next month in July?

Is it simply about Civale rebuilding value over his next 6-7 starts to show he's healthy & still effective?

Is it more about the field of teams and their status of being either being in the buyers or sellers becoming more clear by July 31st?

Does Civale have more value next month simply because it's the equivalent of the last gas station for a couple hundred miles?

The White Sox did assume a little bit of risk (though not much) by taking over the balance of his 2025 salary and assuming he can be dealt by banking on his stock rising. Versus the chance of him getting hurt or performing terribly.

Though they did rid themselves of the Vaughn dead money against the small probability he turns it around and spares the non-tender in the second half.

The White Sox may have also bought themselves some salary relief by dumping Vaughn and potentially getting a contender to pick up the last third of Civale.

All told, I find it fascinating that it's just assumed as a given that a SP like Civale with negative value on June 13th will have future asset value six weeks down the road at the deadline on the premise mostly that it's later.

After 20 years of posting about the value of defence, no one will be surprised that my view is that a run prevented is worth just as much as a run scored. I really don't want to have (or start) the whole WAR discussion again. I'll position this differently to say that one area of surplus (valuable assets) that the Jays have is at SS (middle infield). I would support a reallocation of payroll to pitching rather than investing in a long term contract for Bichette.

Now, I really wasn't thinking about trading Bichette but electric carrot's thought is interesting. Could you do something this year at the deadline with Bichette that was, at worst, nuetral to the team this year (maybe better if starting pitching related) but good for the future of the Jays? That might actually be possible but it would be a very high risk move. That feels like a trade that the Rays might attempt but I just don't see this FO having an appetite for that kind of risk. Frankly, I could even understand not wanting to take that roll of the dice given their potentially tenuous job security.

"That feels like a trade that the Rays might attempt but I just don't see this FO having an appetite for that kind of risk."

Agreed. I don't think there's any chance the Jays even entertain a Bichette trade right now (assuming they are still in a playoff position or close to it at the deadline). As mentioned it would be a very bold move with massive implications both from a clubhouse standpoint and an optics standpoint. It's the type of deal that might make sense depending on the return but is so risky for the position the Jays are in that it would be unrealistic for this FO (with their jobs presumably on the line) to consider it.

I don't think Bo is going to have a lot of suitors in the winter, so there might be a chance he's back, but I think the existing FO would have no issues with using Bo for a 2025 run, and then moving on afterwards. I don't think it's wise to make any decisions with Nimmala in mind since he's 19 in A+ and a lot can still go wrong there, but aside from that, Bichette's defense and speed has declined hard this season and his bat has always been good not great. He's not a smart long-term bet, IMO. Vlad was an ownership call, but I don't see Bo having that level of importance with Rogers.

Bo is a free agent after the season so he falls into the category of a rental, unless he indicates a willingness to sign which is unlikely as he is so close to becoming a free agent.

As a rental he would of interest to teams trying to make the post season. How many teams who are trying to make the post season have excess pitching? Not too many. So while a SS for pitching trade makes sense on paper it will be difficult to find a match.

All true Gerry - although, as the Rays have done more than once you could trade Bo for prospects and in a separate deal use some of the acquires assets to buy pitching. Anyway - I don’t see it but it’s an interesting thought.

0 chance we trade him if we maintain our position in the standings.

Whether we re-sign him or not is more interesting.

How Nimmala does when he's promoted to AA this year might have a big impact on that decisio .

A run saved is not the same as a run produced; you can’t win a game by saving runs.

While the idea of the Jays trading Bichette when they’re in a playoff spot is completely ridiculous, there is actually an obvious fit - the LA Dodgers. Betts can play anywhere and they might want to improve their OF D if they think Bichette’s D is passable. Teams in playoff spots don’t trade their RBI leaders though.

The other aspect is how many contending teams will actually need a shortstop? Will almost assuredly be a very limited market.

Sure. Just as the 17th run scored in a 17-0 ballgame isn’t worth as much as preventing a run when you are up 1-0. WPA game state analysis wasn’t really what I was getting at but sure you are quite correct.

Varsho is ahead of Santander right now. Schneider said he should be running the bases within a week and have a brief rehab stint after that.

They keep saying Scherzer will have two rehab starts, but you have to imagine there's a chance he takes Francis' spot in the rotation if things go well tonight and don't tomorrow.

Knowing baseball, the Jays will lose tonight and win tomorrow somehow. They just need to win one game for a very successful roadtrip.

Funnily enough, 2 of the best teams (Dodgers and Tigers) might be in the market for a SS. The Tigers have gone back to Baez at SS recently and he is starting to play like Baez again after a surprisingly productive start to the season.

7 of the 10 teams that scored the most runs last year made the playoffs. 7 of the 10 teams that allowed the fewest runs made the playoffs. Weirdly, no team scored more runs than Arizona, and no team gave up fewer runs than Seattle. Neither made the playoffs.

A run prevented is the same as a run scored but run prevention is mostly pitching with some defense and run scoring is almost all hitting. Bo has a 110 WRC+ so it's not like he is the hitter he was a few years ago. I'd trade him at deadline for something instead of a 4th round pick but doubt Jays do.

It's a long season. The need in August might be not be obvious yet.

It's nice to see Clement in the lineup.

The guy replacing Harper today is Otto Kemp who has a .486 OPS.
He's 25 and has nice numbers in AAA. 
Interestingly, he went undrafted in 22 and signed a minor league contract.

I honestly don’t understand the impetus to trade Bo. The team has quite a bit of prospect and/or surplus outfield capital they can move for pitching or another veteran bat at the deadline.

Bo is a good player who can contribute in the postseason. His bat is valuable (and may get more valuable over the course of the season). And it’s nice to have some redundancy at SS in case it’s needed.

People were upset about pulling Berrios for a better pitcher in the playoffs.
Trading Bichette would be a huge morale hit in the clubhouse.

I don’t see trading Bo happening but, when your team is going well, it’s interesting to contemplate how it could be made better:). The problem with the surplus OFs is that I just don’t see the surplus as having much actual trade value.

I agree that the team should always be looking for ways to improve. That’s why I mentioned Skenes as a potential trade target:)

Even if the outfielders don’t have much trade value, the Blue Jays now have quite a few prospects who should garner significant interest at the trade deadline.

Merrill Kelly, mentioned by Jim Bowden the other day, seems like a reasonable trade target who might cost two or three mid-level or slightly better prospects.

The impetus for trading Bo would be that you would lose him for essentially nothing next season if you don't and you can likely get something much more than that that can help your team next year and beyond. For example, Dodgers have a ton of pitchers that at some point are coming back led by Ohtani, Snell, and Glasnow. Would Dodgers be willing to trade from Sheehan/Ryan/Stone group? I don't know but seems quite possible. Jays lineup could be
Kirk, Vlad, Gimenez, Clement, Barger, Lukes, Varsho, Springer, Santander and you have a cost controlled starter. Or maybe Tigers give you a food prospect or two for him. Obviously, lots of factors at play. If teams not going to give you much more than 4th round pick value for Bichette, not worth trading him.

I think some are writing Bo off a bit quickly tbh.

I think he might actually be back to what he was before last year, with just a bit of bad luck clouding the improvement.

Statcast

2021: 91.4ev, 7.3la, 9.9brl%, 47.5hard%, .355xwoba, .354woba
2022: 91.9ev, 8.5la, 9.6brl%, 50.3hard%, .334xwoba, .347woba
2023: 90.2ev, 6.1la, 9.6brl%, 44.9hard%, .363xwoba, .349woba
2024: 89.2ev, 7.2la, 4.4brl%, 43.0hard%, .303xwoba, .264woba
2025: 91.6ev, 9.1la, 9.6brl%, 51.0hard%, .373xwoba, .325woba


He was extremely consistent across the board for his first 3 full seasons, there, though there was some small deterioration in 2023 in terms of quality of contact, but it didn't effect his numbers much. And then last year the quality of contact fell hard, and it did effect his numbers bigtime.

But this year his quality of contact is as good as it's ever been, and that's led to the best xwoba of his career.


Batted Ball

2021: 20.5ld%, 49.1gb%, 30.4fb%, 6.5iffb%, 18.8hr/fb%
2022: 20.4ld%, 48.7gb%, 30.9fb%, 5.2iffb%, 15.6hr/fb%
2023: 27.4ld%, 46.1gb%, 26.5fb%, 5.0iffb%, 16.5hr/fb%
2024: 22.1ld%, 47.8gb%, 30.1fb%, 6.7iffb%, 5.3hr/fb%
2025: 22.2ld%, 44.8gb%, 33.1fb%, 5.1iffb%, 10.1hr/fb%

you can see in 2023 he helped make up for his drop in quality of contact by hitting more linedrives than usual, which helps explain why his numbers didn't suffer. But in 2024, he went back to his normal batted ball distribution but his drop in quality of contact led to his HRs disappearing.

This year he's back close to his usual mix (slightly more fbs and slightly fewer gbs) but his HR rate, while double last year, is still not where it was despite better quality of contact. That should probably change i think.



One intersting thing to notice is in his pitch values profile. Last year he really suffered on fastballs of all types, couldn';t hit them at all. He was still decent against offspeed stuff but nowhere near as good as he was before - he crushed offspeed stuff for most of his career.

This year, though, he's back to normal against the hard stuff (maybe even a bit better than his career averages there), but he's only been ok against curves and changes - the two pitches he has crushed his whole career.

Don't really know the explanation for that tbh, but it seems like it might be important. In general though I'd be more worried if something had changed in regards to him being able to handle the hard stuff, rather than the soft stuff.



Anyways, he had a mediocre April, and then had a pretty huge May, before falling back down a bit in June so far - I'm thinking he probably gets back on a heater soon enough.

I always figured that if Boston could trade Nomar Garciaparra at the trade deadline, then anyone could be traded. That transaction seemed to work out ok for the Sox.

I feel Bichette has definitely looked much better at the plate than his numbers. Those first couple of weeks he was driving everything and even ended up long singles off the wall.

The Jays are in a weird place when it comes to trades. Offensively the only real add of value would be a platoon righty bat. Pitching wise definitely an SP. Relievers, if you could get anything of value for Swanson or Green before they're FAs that would be good asset management, might still ultimately make our bullpen better by subtraction, but we're not going to do that.

Anyway...Scherzer about to start!

If anyone does want to watch Buffalo, they're the free game of the day. https://www.milb.com/live-stream-games/g781735

"I think some are writing Bo off a bit quickly tbh."

I like Bo, I think he looks great this year and I expect his actual numbers to go up -- but if we need pitching I think making a trade makes sense. You have to give up something to get something. I appreciate a bold move like that and yes, Nomar was traded to good effect. That's a good comp Hodgie!

What a throw from Bo to save a run and a blown open inning. Is that the type of play that shows up in DRS?

Gausman never seems to look great with extra rest.

The Blue Jays really could use a #1 starting pitcher, pushing Gausman / Berrios / Bassitt to 2 / 3 / 4 in the rotation. That is probably going to be impossible to acquire, but it’s what the team needs most.

Question: If Yesavage starts dealing at AA with good control and command, would you promote him to a rotation spot in the majors around August?

What's Yesavage's innings limit? Per BRef he threw 93 innings last year. He is at 54 already this season.

Why are innings limits a thing?

UCL surgeries are most common April-June. I suspect because that’s when pitchers are least conditioned to their rotational workloads. So why are innings limited later in the year when pitchers have already weathered the storm? Stein went from the outfield having never pitched to throwing 150 innings the next year in the bigs. And then threw 200+ innings until he broke a decade or so later.

We could argue there are less late season TJ surgeries because teams practice these protocols, but I don’t think that’s the case. I’d have to look more into this, but I still don’t understand the way innings limits and shutdowns are used for young pitchers when a lot of the contextual evidence suggests there’s little reason to fear letting a guy that’s throw 100 pitches in a game successfully all year continue to carry out a workload his body has adapted to. In fact, teams might want to get guys throwing year round to prevent injuries in their return to work (the period of highest risk).

Still remember how important it was to make sure Sanchez didn't go over an innings limit.

This seemed like the perfect game to use both Green and Swanson, so of course Schneider chooses to use Fluharty and Fisher instead.

Why are innings limits a thing?

Because no one knows how to prevent pitching injuries. Nothing else has worked, let's try this?

The fastball looked fine, but the split wasn't great. I don't think he challenges the rookie if the split is working.

My issue with Bo is that he now seems to be a middle of the pack to top 3rd SS with a likelihood of falling off when the defense does. He looked to be someone who would regularly be in the running for tops at the position. I'm glad he's bounced back some, and projects to better than he has done, but there's some massive offensive seasons that he hasn't approached in the pros. I could see him getting a qualifying offer & accepting after looking around. That puts him in the not a problem category, but can get roughly the same value for cheaper ( by different distribution).

As soon as I saw Swanson getting up in the bullpen, I said "I see they've given up on this game."
I liked him in '23. '24 was bad: -0.3bWAR. This year, he's on track to do much worse: FIP of 7.99.

Please, just option him if you can, or DFA him if you must.. Urena's back on the market - sign him again..

It is sad with Swanson - he seemed so good a few years ago, then everything went wrong. I'd give him a bit more leash before dumping, but he has to be high on the list of who to dump once guys start returning. They might make up an injury to keep him around just in case, but I doubt it at this stage. Just would hate to see him go to NY and become his old self again ala Yarborough. Same with Chad Green. Neither has options left (too much ML experience). Only guys in the pen with options are Little, Fluharty, and Fisher - none of whom deserve to be sent down (but neither did Paxton Schultz for that matter).

Max Scherzer is very close now, so someone will need to go within a week for him I'd guess. Nick Sandlin and Yimi García seem further away, although Sandlin is just based on his horrid game in Buffalo (1 out, 4 H 4 R/ER 2 HR vs 5 batters over 16 pitches 10 for strikes, 0 swing and miss). However, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic says the Jays didn't care about that, just wanting to see how his arm recovers and have him do 1 or 2 more games in Buffalo before deciding what to do next. He does have options left too. Same guy said Garcia did a bullpen in Florida on Friday. So maybe not as far away as I thought.

Which 3 pitchers do you pull for these 3 guys? My choices would be Francis (AAA), Green (DFA), and Swanson (DFA), but I doubt Green goes away so instead it'd be Fisher to AAA probably.

Zach Pop got called up by the Mariners.

A brief scouting of his minor league line looks like the same old Pop.

If anyone wants a deeper dive on the circumstances of Yarbrough leaving the Blue Jays for the Yankees, Ken Rosenthal discusses this in detail in a June 13 article on The Athletic.

One snippet. The Blue Jays

asked Yarbrough to sign an advance-consent clause, allowing them to release him within the first 45 days of the regular season and terminate the rest of his $2 million guarantee. The Yankees, Yarbrough said, made him the same offer, but with a different incentive structure.

Yarbrough was willing to accept that deal from the Yankees, a team he admired from afar for its ability to get the most out of pitchers. He wasn’t willing to accept it from the Jays, for whom he had a 2.01 ERA in 31 1/3 innings after the trade, pitching in a variety of roles out of the bullpen.

“I had been there the last couple of months, showed them everything I bring to the table, especially the versatility,” Yarbrough said. “Everyone from the team and staff seemed to love me. So I feel like there wasn’t necessarily a reason to (accept an advance-consent clause), just from what I’ve already shown them. Whereas with a new organization, I have no problem with getting them to know me, seeing what I bring to a team.”

Another thing I learned from the article is that Yarbrough has been terrific *against* the Yankees in his career (2.04 ERA in 57.1 innings). That is one reason they were interested in signing him.

I think Bo is now like a 2.5 WAR player rather than a 4 WAR one. I don't really think it makes sense for Jays to re-sign him unless he gives a good discount. With this situation, it almost doesn't matter if he is good or great The point is that you cannot let assets go for nothing. The only scenario I'd be ok holding someone is like Yankees and Soto last year where they were probably 50% to re-sign him and a World Series contender with him and not without him.

The “you can’t let him go for nothing” notion might apply in some contexts — think Ohtani in his last year or two with Anaheim — but I don’t think it applies here. First, the Blue Jays are competing hard for a playoff spot. They need every marginal win they can find. Having Bo on the team will help with that. Second, if Bo is somewhat diminished from his 4-5 WAR days, and I’m not saying this is necessarily the case, then other teams are unlikely to give up a lot for him in a rental trade. They will be looking at his body of work over the last year and a half and valuing him accordingly. So trading him or not trading him is not going to have a significant impact on the state of the Blue Jays organization.

I’m still hoping Bo has a streak this summer or fall where he goes unconscious the way he did a couple of summers ago — have a month or more where you pretty much can’t get him out.

"What a throw from Bo to save a run and a blown open inning. Is that the type of play that shows up in DRS?"

Probably yes? When I read your comment last night, I was curious as well, so I checked FG and he was at minus 6 DRS. He's now at minus 5. For the play itself, Bo wouldn't get full credit, because both Straw and Kirk would also get some percentage of saving the run itself. Not sure if was considered as saving more than the one run though, because the throw home and the out also changed run expectancy from run in, 1 out, man on 2nd or 3rd, to no run in, 2 outs, man on 3rd.

Bo just isn't worth that much to most contenders. I suspect he'll find a weak market this winter for his services. Why? Because of a few things - his horrid 2024, his nice but not great 2025 (107 wRC+ vs 118 lifetime, vs 115 projected), his defense is a net negative (FG) and on pace to be his worst defensive year to date (he was positive 2020-2024, only negative was 2019 as a rookie). On the bright side his xwOBA is 370, the highest ever in his career suggesting there is more to come with the bat in the 2nd half, and his K% is the lowest it has ever been. Factor #2 is how few contenders need a SS - among guys listed as a SS Bo is ranked #17, tied with Otto Lopez (yes, that Otto Lopez). Cut down to just what they did as a SS and Bo drops to 18th with the White Sox SS. So no, I don't see anyone paying much to get Bo this year in trade, nor do I see him getting a $100+ mil deal this winter. Right now I wouldn't be shocked if he takes the Jays QO and sticks around for 1 more year. The Athletic had Bo ranked #5 in May (#3 if you ignore the 2 opt-out candidates ahead of him in Bregman and Alonzo). Looking at the top free agents it looks like a weak class this year. Can't think of any the Jays would chase - maybe a starter with top ones being Michael King, Dylan Cease (top 2 are Padres), Zac Gallen (having a bad year after 3 very good ones), Framber Valdez (in the middle of his 6th solid year with an ERA+ of 120-140, last 3 years were 175+ IP each - very much the type the Jays love).

If the Jays are out of contention for the playoffs, then yeah, trade Bo if there is no extension. But it makes no sense to trade him if we are still contending. What is the difference between keeping a free agent to be while contending and trading for a free agent to be? The only difference I see is that keeping your own player allows a QO at seasons end, and not giving up assets to get someone else's free agent to be.

Cease might be a good addition in the off-season. The problem is that he's going to command a big contract and pitcher health is so dicey, as we've seen with Burnes this year.

I've liked Michael King ever since watching him dominate the Blue Jays as a Yankees SP in 2023. But he's now on the IL with a shoulder injury -- never a good thing for a pitcher, although tests indicate his shoulder is structurally sound, so maybe the injury isn't a long-term issue.

hypobole - I’ll start by saying that I agree with that. But I see the idea as interesting not because Bo is a free agent but because he might be “surplus”. Contending teams buy rentals not sell. What follows is a gross oversimplification but look past that - once Santander is healthy, there’s a pretty good chance that one of Gimenez, Bichette, Clement, Barger, or Springer is on the bench in any given game. I understand all the arguments around injuries, L/R matchups, resting etc. - but could you trade from surplus to find a starting pitcher such that your team is better now and maybe going forward? That idea isn’t crazy. Just too risky.

The Athletic did a poll.

Which manager, aside from your own, would you most like to play for? (121 respondents. Respondents were allowed one answer only.)

Schneider did not receive a vote. This is not good.

Which manager, aside from your own, would you not want to play for? (40 responsdents. Respondents were allowed one answer only.)

Schneider did not receive a vote. This *is* good.

Which organizations have good reputations among players? Bad reputations? (Responses reflect answers to two questions: "Which organizations have good reputations among players?" (126 respondents), and "Which organizations have bad reputations among players?" (115 respondents). Respondents were allowed multiple answers to each question.)

The top organizations were the Dodgers (82:0), Yankees (40:3), Braves (25:0), Cubs (22:0), Guardians (17:1), Mets (17:1), Red Sox (15:0), Rangers (14:0).

The Blue Jays fared decently overall (5:1).

The bottom orgs were the Angels (0:19), Pirates (0:24), Marlins (0:25), Rockies (0:25), White Sox (0:31), and A's (0:39).

We can't look at things in a vacuum with Bo. Using a blank slate yes just compare his overall value to what others bring however, on a team that is tops or near tops in defense and lacks offense for most of the past 4 years Bo's profile is far more valuable than Clement or Gimenez. I see it like supply and demand. You need more offense? No becomes more important.

I don't disagree with the sentiments to try to love off of him to improve the club overall and don't disagree with avoiding a long term deal with him. Just have issue with the idea that a run saved us as valuable as a run scored since that's in a vacuum and not reflective of the value of a run for this team.

dalimon5 - I see Bo as a solid piece for 2025 and 2026 for sure. By 2027 though it becomes more iffy - his defense will continue to decline most likely, and by then Arjun Nimmala might be ready (in A+ now, AA by years end I suspect, AAA at some point in '26, could be ready for '27). Jimenez and Josh Kasevich could be ready in '26 and should be for '27 (Jimenez out of options after this year). So options exist beyond Clement/Gimenez who aren't exactly bad choices either. By '27 those choices could be better than Bo without factoring in payroll even and by '28 it should be a clear 'kids over Bo' situation. I wouldn't offer Bo more than 3 years, with the plan being in year 3 to move him off SS if at all possible. Ideally a 1-2 year deal would be reached to bridge the gap until Nimmala is ready.

With the trade deadline approaching who is selling or should be? I'd say anyone more than 10 games out of a playoff slot should sell as their odds are damn low of getting back into it.

10+ out: A's, White Sox, (O's are close at 7 1/2); NL: Pirates, Marlins, Rockies, (Atlanta & Washington are 8+ out)

So those are the teams that either should be selling or should be seriously thinking about it. Atlanta & Baltimore could have some quality for sale but will hold off until the last minute ala the Jays last year, hoping for a miracle.

Meant "move off" not "love off" Bo.

John I wouldn't resign Bo unless it was for the same deal or less than what Willy Adames signed.

Regarding the roster logjam when Santander comes back, I think the one who will lose playing time is Lukes. The Jays will twist themselves into a pretzel to make sure Clement plays everyday, whether it’s 1B, 2B, whatever. Would be very unlike the current Jays to use him strictly as a platoon player, which they should, but they won’t. Barger should be playing 3B as much as possible but we will see if that’s how the manager operates. Against RHP, if it’s between Lukes in LF and Clement on the bench or Lukes on the bench and Clement at 3B, then I’m pretty sure I can predict which way Schneider will go more times than not.

Old friend Trevor Richards is a free agent again as his latest MLB career as a Royal lasted less than a week.

It included 3 games, 3 innings, 4 earned runs, 18 batters faced, 3 wild pitches, an ERA of 12 and an appearance where he failed to get 4 White Sox out.

In other former Jays news, the White Sox DFAed Joshua Palacios in order to claim Ryan Noda on waivers.

Palacios had been playing corner OF for the White Sox but characteristically was having trouble with his bat.

Noda hasn't played in the majors in 2025 but has been shuffling along the waiver wire between the As, Red Sox, Angels and now Chicago.

Today would be a good day for good Bowden Francis to make an appearance. Philadelphia has a quality SP on the mound in Sanchez. ESPN gives them a 68.1% chance of winning the game.

Bichette 6 - Guerrero 1 - Kirk 0 - Springer 9 - Clement 5 - Schneider 3 - Straw 8 - Clase 7 - Heineman 2

Barger sitting against another tough lefty after cooling off.

Gimenez sitting against another tough lefty. He was robbed of a single in the 3rd last night and has at least been making a lot of contact.

Roden & Robertson on the bench as per usual. Schneider runs out every RH bat he has against LHP Sanchez for the first time in recent memory.

Schneider is running out a similar lineup that Francis & co. lost 8-3 to Sanchez and the Phillies 11 days ago (mind you with Bryce Harper) except swapping out LHH Barger & Gimenez for RHH Heineman and Clase.

A clean inning by Francis. That feels like a big win already.

I think people need to remember that Clement had reverse splits the last 2yrs.

2 clean innings!

I think the team may have called up a substitute SP…? 6 up and 6 down, and also this guy doesn’t have a moustache.

If my math is correct, Vladdy has one home run in his last 18 games (including this game).

Really should have yanked him.

Manager just kicked the gift horse in the mouth. Hopefully he doesnt kick us back.

Tske him out already. What are you doing.

1. Little should not have pitched yesterday

2. Schneider left Francis in at least one batter too long today

Francis could have been out of this with a solid albeit short line, and the reliever wouldve likely got the bottom of the order guys out.

But the manager i guess thought there was somethjng more important psychologically to let francis get out of it....but now he's probably ruined any confidence boost francis would have got out of this too.

Hope Francis is seeing a psychologist. He has ZERO confidence & ZERO capacity to handle adversity right now. Maybe combined with mechanical issues with his release point. Something happened after his first 4 starts. It's the pitching coach's job to figure it out.

I don’t think Francis can start any more games in the majors for a while. His early season struggles have broken him (for now).

<I dunno. Is this Steve Blass disease?I never watched during earlier attributions to know if it's similar?

Attaboy vladdy.

Reminder that with all the offdays there was actually zero need whatsoever to start Francis today.

June15: Berrios (5)
June16: Bassit (5)
June17: Offday
June18: Lauer (5) ---- Scherzer 4
June19: Gausman (5)
June20: Berrios (4)
June21: Bassitt (4)
June22: ?????
June23: Offday ------- Scherzer 4
June24: Gausman (4)
June25: Berrios (4)
June26: Bassitt (4)
June27: Lauer (9)
June28: Scherzer (4)



Unfortunately starting Francis today hasn't even allowed us to save us from needing another Francis/#5sp start. So doubly annoying and doubly damaging.

Little didn’t pitch yesterday, but it is indeed a poorly constructed bullpen when you use 3 relievers for 3 innings down 4/5 runs. It’s hard to carry piggyback starters because it can mean you don’t really have a long man. Would Swanson still be on the team if he hadn’t been acquired for Teoscar?

Swanson on the roster would be a problem anyway (it’s been a long time since he was good) but it’s a major problem when you need a multi inning arm in the pen.

Thanks for the correction about Little, 92-93. But the general point stands. Why are Fluharty and Fisher being used down four or five runs, when the team is starting Francis the next day?

Based on Yarbrough’s comments to Rosenthal, I understand why he jumped ship for the Yankees. He wanted the Blue Jays to respect what he did for them in 2024 by giving him a 2025 contract without an advance-consent clause. In retrospect, the team should probably have just given him what he wanted.

Sigh.

Any updates on Yimi or Sandlin?

While all the comments are about the pitching, the offense has scored 2 runs in the past 18 innings. Seems like a bigger factor in the losses to me

Yeah, not going to win with scoring 2 very often but really wish Schneider would stop using Green as a leverage guy. Francis can't start again and shouldn't have started today but likely wouldn't have mattered.

Swanson’s spot in the pen should have gone to someone like Urena who could eat up innings in a blowout. They don’t use him in leverage spots (smartly) which means they are hoarding a bad one inning reliever for no reason other than to rationalize a trade from 3 years ago. His salary is practically nothing by MLB standards so that shouldn’t be preventing a DFA, and the last time he was good was 2 years ago.

Green is a bigger issue because the manager is using him like he’s looking at the back of a 2021 baseball card rather than seeing what’s in front of him.

That was textbook John Schneider. Take a bad pitching situation and make it worse. Started with yesterday's game as people have noted and came to a head today.

I find the Yarbrough love a bit silly (he was a mediocre long reliever for three straight years. Yankees changed something and now he's an fine 5th starter but likely wouldn't have been on Jays) but Urena? He isn't any good. Jays don't need more long relievers. They need to fix the 4/5 spots in the rotation.

Yarbrough was a very good reliever in his 31.1 IP for the Blue Jays last year. He can also start games.

As Rosenthal wrote: “As the Jays await the return of righty Max Scherzer and ponder the regression of righty Bowden Francis, they can only wonder how Yarbrough, a pitcher who was firmly under their control, might have fit.”

The Jays botched the Yarborough thing, plain and simple. Their staff was thin and they decided Richard Lovelady and Jacob Barnes were worth taking instead of doling out a little more cash in a do or die season. The ended up DFA'ing Richard Lovelady before the opening series ended.

It was stupid at the time, it was stupid even when they very luckily got two awesome starts out of Easton Lucas to help mitigate the damage early on, it was stupid even with Lauer's effectiveness, and it will remain stupid. I have no doubt the team is at least 2-3 wins worse so far because of that decision.

the last time [Swanson] was good was 2 years ago.

There were, as we all know, extenuating circumstances to his troubles to begin last season. But it seems to me that Swanson was perfectly fine after he came back to the team post All Star Break. He made 27 appearances with a 2.55 ERA, struck out 27 and walked 10 in 24.2 IP. He allowed a single run four times, and multiple runs just once. I've got no problem with giving him some more rope. I'm much more worried about Chad Green.

That’s fair Magpie. Frankly there’s reason to worry about both and room for some rope for both. Green looks toasty right now but he’s been good for a long time. As you say, Swanson was solid in the back part of last year but he’s got a pretty small body of work of actually being good. I don’t think they will move off either for a while.

I wish Atkins would've let Kiermaier retire as a Jay just so I'd never hear about the fanbase's weird obsession over a soft tossing mid over-the-hill lefty long reliever ever again.

Pooks the Yarbrough love is mitigated to maybe two posters.

Sandlin should be back next series.

The team will either send Fisher down to give Green and Swanson more runway, or keep Fisher and DFA Swanson.

Or the Jays try to stretch it out as long as they can, by sending Bowden down, bringing Sandlin up, then making further decisions after the next Lauer/Turnbull game.

Pooks the Yarbrough love is mitigated to maybe two posters.

It's not just limited to the Box.

Yarbrough gets brought up and debated in many Jays online corners every time the Jays pen slips up or there's a quibble with Schneider's low leverage pen management.

I have nothing against Ryan. I would've been fine with him making the team.

The Dodgers cut him mid-season last year and used him as salary ballast to offset Kiermaier. He sat on the FA market all winter and 29 other teams didn't offer him a MLB deal or a SP/RP roster spot.

It's just incredulous that so many feel he's the MacGuffin that would fix this team's very mediocre pitching woes.

Green is a mystery - last year he seemed to be the one guy we could count on in the pen. His K% barely shifted (21.9% to 20.8%), his BB% is identical (6.7% both years), his fastball velocity is close (95.5 to 95.1). A big difference is BABIP gong from .236 (lucky low) to .308 (unlucky high) vs lifetime 277. The killer though is HR/9 - from 1.35 last year (high but not nightmare) to 2.54 this year (before today's game pushed it higher). What is funny is his xFIP was 4.44 last year, 4.41 this year. Basically he was lucky last year, and unlucky this year. The reality for him is somewhere inbetween which puts him around replacement level and not really worth holding onto anymore at age 34. Especially when making $10.5 mil this year (Santander makes less factoring in deferrals).

Francis pre-today Fastball velocity was in eyeshot (93 vs 92.6) but K% down from 22.5% to 18.5%, BB% from 5.4% to 8.9% (and worse now), HR/9 was bad at 1.48, but worse now at 2.83. BABIP went from 211 to 293 (236 lifetime). Clearly his control is toast and was critical in '24.

Swanson fastball is down from 93.9 to 92.9 (was 93.7 his first year here). K% down from 22% to 8.3%, BB% from 8.3% to 12.5%. Right there kills him - if you cannot K people and you're walking more than in the past you are toast. Now, just 4 2/3 IP so this can shift drastically quickly, but worth looking at.

Those 3 are the ones who should be next in line for sending down or releasing. Sadly I suspect they won't be. Swanson is the one I'd hold onto the longest of them, with Francis going down as soon as possible (when Max returns). Green looks very toasty to me when you mix last year with this year and try to remove luck as much as possible.

Green was much better than I remembered looking at his monthly splits last year. His ERA was well under 3 every month except the last one.

But he did have an awful Sept 8 2/3 innings, 14 hits, 11 ER, 3 Blowns Saves to 1 Save Completed, 3 Losses.

Looking at his Apr-Aug '24 numbers reminds me why the Jays like him.

But his 2025 struggles really began on Sept 1, 2024 or so.

For curiosity I thought I'd see how the Jays are doing by position this month (while they are hot...well, cooler now, but still a damn fine month so far).

• Hitting: #13 102 wRC+
• Pitching: #22 4.50 ERA (SP-24/5.18 ERA, RP-16/3.70 ERA)
• Position: C-1/229; 1B-20/92; 2B-11/101; 3B-11/130; SS-24/57; LF-17/85; CF-29/30; RF-17/93; DH-8/128
• Leaders: wRC+: Heinemann 219, Kirk 202, Gimenez 147, Schneider 128, Barger 126, Clement 124, Vlad 112, Springer 91 - all others sub 90
• Nightmares: wRC+: Clase 5, Straw 12, Roden 46, Lukes 48, Bo 52

Looking at wRC+ I'd say we need Varsho back ASAP so Clase & Straw can be cut back (Clase to AAA, Straw to the bench). Bo is destroying his free agency and if he keeps this up the Jays may not even do the QO. Might be time to move him down the order a bit. If someone offered the Jays a decent pitcher for him I'd be very tempted to take it and just put Clement in at SS everyday, and Barger at 3B everyday.

Bichette has struggled for the last year and a half, but he has been significantly better in 2025 than he was in 2024. And his xwOBA (.367) is much better than his wOBA (.317). I wouldn't rule out Bo heating up and having a good second half. He's a career 117 OPS+ hitter in the majors.

Interesting that Wheeler, who just turned 35 and continues to be an excellent pitcher, plans to retire after the 2027 season. He’s looking forward to spending more time with his family. Good for him. Many pitchers would have tried to eke out a few more seasons in his situation.

In today's version of "how can I manipulate the lineup to get Clement in there?", it's Bo at DH and Clement at short.

Clement has been red shot since May, but even since May his wRC+ against RHP is 73. He really should be used as more of a platoon player. Maybe Springer needed a day off today, but if it's not injury related, then considering there's an off day tomorrow I'd much rather have his bat in the lineup against Wheeler than Clement's. Although every time I bring up Clement in a negative light, he goes 3-4, so who knows.

Yeah, Schneider clearly loves Clement (managers always seem to love these kinds of players and always have) but it's frustrating because both his numbers this year and career show that Clement should just not be playing much against righties and he plays pretty much every game.

To be fair, if he's going to shoehorn Clement into the lineup, this is the best way to do it. Improve the SS D and give Bichette and Springer some rest. Two days in a row is good for players.

I never see this constant conversation when Varsho plays every day including against LH’s. They are incredibly similar career hitters. Varsho is an 83 wRC+ vs LH while Clement is a 78 wRC+ hitter vs RH. Over their time as Jays, Clement actually has less platoon disadvantage. Is it their original stories? Serious question.

Those 5 points are a significant difference, and Varsho has a higher OBP vs. LHP than he does vs. RHP so people don't think it's that big a negative if he plays vs. LHP.

And Straw can't hit LHP either, so not really sure what you're even getting at. If the Jays had suitable replacements, people would want Varsho sitting vs. LHP.

Ok

OPS on the road is pretty bad.

Wheeler's main pitch is a 96mph 4-seamer. 
That's probably why the lineup looks like that.

Castellanos owns Berrios with a 9 for 23 record.

Is this Steve Blass disease?

No, just a Steve Blass moment.

That's an interesting point about Varsho vs Clement.

Some of the difference is the recent emergence of Barger as a potential everyday 3B, which wasn't the case a month or so ago when Clement's defense at 3B everyday was more of a necessity.

I think Varsho's CF defense is also flashier, easier to appreciate with the eye test and harder to replace. Clement is obviously an awesome defender at 2B & 3B by the metrics, but he seems to be more of a compiler analytics darling that isn't as noticeable real time on the diamond.

Another difference is the shape of their offense. Varsho is very frustrating offensively between the Ks, the contact issues and the inconsistency. But the fact that Varsho has enough power to hit a HR with runners on at any given time means he's easier to advocate for in the lineup on any given day.

Clement's last two bench days were June 4th against the Phillies & RHP Mick Abel and May 16th against RHP Jack Flaherty and the Tigers. Clement came off the bench in both games late.

Clement is getting playing time like an everyday player against RHP. This robs PAs from the likes of Barger, Lukes, Roden, Springer, Clase, Robertson, etc.

I get the point being made about Clement v RH’s. I even agree with it. As I said the other day, I’d be in favour of him sitting vs RH’s on a regular basis. My only counter has been that I’d let his current heater run out before I did that. I don’t think this board or the public think Varsho is best used as a platoon bat though. I don’t see an outcry coming for that. When they have had suitable alternatives in years past that isn’t how the team used him. I just find the difference in collective views interesting when I don’t see the chasm of difference that others clearly do. Gimenez is another similar player and it will be interesting to see how he’s utilized and viewed going forward.

Error to Caleb commenting on Zach Wheeler, father of 4 children: “He’s +4 in kids above replacement”. He’s actually +2 (1.9 actually) above replacement.

Clement in his career has a 630 OPS vs RHP, 718 vs LHP. This year is fluky with a bizarre 522-1177 spread - that ain't gonna stay like that. The famous Garth Iorg/Rance Mulliniks platoon back in the Jays heyday saw Iorg with a 589-677 split, Mulliniks 770-642 split. Given that I'd suspect a 100-200 point spread is about as nuts as it should be with small sample sizes causing weird things like Clement is seeing now. Basically, I wouldn't worry about it, and just sit him vs tough RHP as part of the 'give everyone a day off' rule (studies have shown 1-2 days off a month makes a significant difference in production for ML hitters - damned if I can find any right now though).

Basically, of the Jays issues, playing Clement vs RHP is not a significant one. Yeah, he has stunk vs them this year but odds are low of that continuing. He should work his way a lot closer to a 100 point spread by seasons end.

I’m not sure Chuck. He might be 1.9 wBC+ (babies created above average) and 4 above replacement level?

Per demographers, replacement level for a couple — to replace them on this planet when they die — is 2.1. The US fertility rate is about 1.7. Wheeler is 1.9 above replacement and 2.3 above average.

Baseball WAR and demographer WAR are different animals!

Ah, of course. That makes sense:)

Seems like every time people complain about Clement, he ups his offensive and defensive production even more. He’s now way outperforming most players on the team, including Vladdy and Bo.

I've got no problem with giving [Swanson] some more rope.

But I'm not going to be stubborn about it.

Watch out for Boston. They’re probably going to end up securing a WC spot.

Crochet will be a formidable weapon for Boston if they make the postseason.

Well, I'd say Swanson is looking very, very toasty now. This was the right time to use him (down 4) but boy did he flop.

The good news is Robertson getting his first hit, an RBI single off the wall.

I know we needed to score more this series but i'm still pissed about the decision to start francis.

Bad for the team:

- francis isn't playable at the moment
- skipping him would have meant only 1 start for the 5 slot, but now we need a 2nd start from that slot
- skipping him would still have left everyone on full or extra rest with another offday coming up for even more rest
- Also shot our bullpen even worse than it already was

Bad for Francis

- he's clearly not in a good place
- manager made if even worse by making him pitch even when he walked the bases full
- he had an option left no reason not to give him a chance to fix himself in AAA

Bad look on the FO

- clearly valuing a half good season from Francis far more than they should. He might be effective but in no way is a guy they should think needs mlb starts to get back on track.

Ugly series. Get back to Toronto and back on winning ways.

Reports say Devers is being traded to the Giants....shocker.

In exchange for Jordan Hicks "and much more."

Robert Murray on X

“Full trade: The San Francisco Giants are acquiring Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox for Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs and Jose Bello, according to sources familiar with the deal.”

Red Sox coming out swinging....“The team's feeling was that a $313.5M contract comes with responsibilities to do what is right for the team and that Devers did not live up to those responsibilities. They had enough and they traded him.”

I get it but looks bad. Devers was owed $300M to be a DH and was incredibly selfish as a player. I have never heard of another player refusing to play a position to help the team. Happy he's out of the division and short-term it makes Red Sox worse but long-term makes a lot of sense.

George Bell saga all over again. Without the - kissing his purple butt - of course:). Not a fun scenario to try and work though.

Boy this will go down poorly with Red Sox fans. On the edge of the race and they dump their star hitter for ... Jordan Hicks & Kyle Harrison? The 2 prospects didn't jump out at me - neither is a top 100 - FG had them as James Tibbs: #4 for SF 45 FV, Jose Bello #22 35+. Jays equivalents would be Cristopher Polanco (45 as was Kendry Rojas) and Jace Bohrofen (Mason Fluharty was a 35+ too as were many others from Charles McAdoo who flopped this year so far to Yohendrick Pinango who has been great).

Not impressive for a superstar hitter at all. Imagine if Vlad had been traded for that package. We'd be revolting over it. Hicks in 48 2/3 IP (9 starts, 4 relief) has 0.6 fWAR and a 6.47 ERA (3.83 xFIP so lots of bad luck there), Harrison is just 23 and in 23 2/3 IP (4 starts, 4 relief) has 0.1 fWAR 4.56 ERA 3.75 xFIP (does SF have ugly defense?).

So basically 2 swingmen for their rotation and 2 meh prospects who might be something someday but aren't close - Bello is in his age 20 season in a complex league, Tibbs is 22 in A+.

Tibbs was on the shortlist of prospects who just missed Keith Law's midseason top-50 prospect list this year (Khal Stephen was also on that shortlist). It seems he's a good prospect.

I get the trade from each team's perspective. Devers is a very good hitter but he's a DH with a questionable body type who might not age all that well. And there was clearly a team chemistry problem. The Red Sox shed his entire salary and got some interesting talent in return. The organization is already deep in young position player talent, which should reduce the sting of Devers' loss.

SF gets a very good hitter in his prime to bolster their contending team's (41-30) chances in the here and now, without having to give up a ton of talent in return. And they probably got the best player in the trade, which often ends up being the main factor in determining which team "won" a trade.

Love the Devers trade for the 2025 Jays.

The writing was on the wall for folks I was chatting with over brunch in Worcester this morning. I am shocked the return was so light, but to get the Giants to eat that contract it was necessary I suppose.

It’s one of those weird trades where I get both reactions:

“They traded Devers for that pile of mediocre assets?
“They got out from under that contact and headache and still got that?”

As electric carrot says - short term it’s good for the Jays. Time will tell otherwise. Devers has to hit (a lot) to make that contract have value. I’m not sure his new home park is going to help.

I like that Devers won't be in the AL East anymore.

Now if only Alex Bregman opts out after this season that would be icing on cake for me. Rafael Devers is a monster and never should have been treated like a regular player. You don't ask players of that caliber to switch positions in spring training then tell them the guy who made them a promise (Bloom) is gone then ask him again to change positions after injuries. I liken it to the Blue Jays asking Vlad to DH because they signed another 1B. You just can't sign a player to be your stud and core piece and then ask them to change positions because they aren't good enough. Thats crazy.

Why is it the FO's fault if a player thinks they are better than they are?

Francis will either be better or be in the minors soon enough. He has had his moments but he's likely the pitching version of Davis Scheneider.

The Jays asked the reigning AL MVP to move to DH to bring up a prospect from AA. These things happen. They are complicated and rarely end well for either player or team.

That was a disaster with Bell. But he wasn't as good a player as Devers.

Sons of Sam Horn are going nuts. The nicest thing they say is "I see the logic, but I'm really disappointed by the return". Many places talking about it seem to have not noticed what Vlad, Ohtani, and Soto signed for in the past year and a half. The price for really good offense has jumped. He is signed for about $29 mil per year for 8 more years. Vlad is getting $35.7 per for 14 years. Devers has a 145 wRC+ this year so far, 126 lifetime and was playing an acceptable, but slightly negative, third base before they pushed him to DH. I suspect he'd be fine at 1B but the Red Sox screwed the pooch there - See George Bell for how you don't do things with Dominican players - they have lots of pride and you need to work with that. Jimy Williams didn't, nor did Pat Gillick and it cost them. Cito Gaston did and it helped, same with the current team (as far as I can tell - they did get Vlad to sign in the end). Boston clearly has a management team right now that doesn't understand that. If they went to Devers in the winter and said 'we are looking at ways to improve the team and feel there are a couple of really good players who play 3B who'd help overall. We know how vital you are to the club and want to work with you on this. Would you feel more comfortable as a DH or 1B, keep working on 3B if you can so you'd be able to go there in the event of injury or if we fail to sign one of these guys, but we are hoping you'll work with us to improve the team overall.' That would've been showing respect to him. Telling him in spring that he is now the DH, sorry not sorry, then asking him to move to 1B once he is settled in at DH is asking for trouble. You can do that to a rookie, but not to a guy you said is the center of your club.

John the idea that Devers is better than Bell might be hindsight with a view to the tail of Bell’s career. Bell aged poorly. So might Devers. In the three years before Bell was asked to move to DH and the three years before Devers was asked to move to DH (now) they both had a nearly identical 12 WAR (bWAR and fWAR averaged). In my view it’s almost an identical situation.

Remember that it’s better to trade a player a year early as opposed to a year late. People are shocked because Devers has been hitting up a storm since his slow start (now up to 145 wRC+). Would Red Sox fans be as disappointed if he had a 126 wRC+ as a very slow DH (his career average wRC+)?

Nigel - uh, no. Bell had one 5 WAR season ('87), one in the 4's, 3 in the 3's, and no more over 1.5. Devers has 1 5, 1 4, 3 3's and a 2.2 (this year so far, on pace for over 4). Bell had 20 lifetime WAR, Devers is at 24.8 so far. Devers cracked 140 3 times in OPS+ so far (including this year), Bell did it once (yes, '87). Bell fell off a cliff at 30 and never got up (-0.2 bWAR from 30-33 when he was benched for the playoffs against the Jays - always thought that was a mistake on the White Sox managers part, who used Bo Jackson, who went 0-10, instead). FG has Bell peak of 5.3 fWAR, then 3 in the 3's and 1 in the 2's, 20.2 lifetime. Devers they have a 6.5, 5.0, 4.2, 4.1, 3.4, then 1.9 this year. 27.5 lifetime.

Bell was a lot of fun back in the 80's, but Devers is a better player by most measures even if he was run over by a bus after cranking a homer today in his exit from Boston.

Ernie Clement had no power until his triple A season in 2023. He started getting regular work in MLB as of approximately August 1, 2023. Since that time, he's been a little better than league average as a hitter, a little better than league average as a baserunner and a significantly above-average defender at 3 infield positions. He's been quite a bit better than Bo Bichette in all phases of the game- more power, strikes out less, gets on base more, runs better and fields better. He's had 731 PA to Bichette's 787. He's been better than Bichette in 2025 too despite Bichette's resurgence. Very similar to Daulton Varsho in overall value- very good defence, a 102 wRC+ with more times on base and much less power and not quite the baserunner (faster but poorer judgment).

If we had a Leo Durocher clone as a Manager in Toronto in 2025 who thought that one (or more) of his pitchers had a "case of nerves", what would he do?

Relatedly, I hope that Francis isn't in the rotation after Saturday's start. I still think he has value to the club in the long relief role, but it would equally be reasonable to send him down to give him work in the rotation in Buffalo. Swanson and Chad Green are a different story, sadly.

I also hope that they stretch out Lauer to 5 innings.

I actually like the deal for the Red Sox, though obviously not for 2025 (good for the Jays in 2025 though to get Devers out of the division). The Jays are going to see first hand what it feels like to have a $35M DH in his 30's except with a full NTC and signed through age 40. Devers' deal wasn't that long but still not optimal, especially when you consider there is a new GM in Boston that wasn't the one who signed that contract. They have a lot of good young talent that have reached the Majors now. I think they will be fine. What it does for their 2025 season is the question.

It's good to remember that some teams do not have to follow a budget or have efficient contracts. It's okay to spend to the cap and overpay players. In fact many of the top teams do this that are consistently good.

If you take that away then suddenly the Red Sox are a worse team without Devers now and in the future. If you want to have strong performance but spend less doing so then you can argue they may be better off. Really you should only be looking at the team before the trade and after the trade to grade. As soon as you start counting savings or payroll space it's a slanted argument.

Is there any team that wins year in and out that doesn't have onerous backend contracts?

Jays biggest need to become a real contender is front-line starting. There are free agent options next year (Valdez, Cease, King) but there are also potential trade options. Many have mentioned Freddy Peralta as a trade and extend option. Either way, Jays don't need #3/4 starters. They need guys who can pitch playoff games. It's why I am pro-trading Bo if the return isn't light. Bo makes the team better but only a little bit better and Jays need to think longer-term. They can't be sacrificing future years to try to win this year.

I don't see how Bichette could return an ace. 
Maybe a guy in A ball who has a shot at being an ace in 2 or 3 years if the stars are all aligned. 

Bad teams with good pitching want loads of prospects, not a rental.
Contending teams will trade some prospects to go all the way, but never their top guys.

The only scenario where the return for Bichette isn't light is if a contender loses their shortstop for the rest of the year and somehow they think Bichette is their best option. 
You need to stop reading the clickbait articles.

I'm surprised Boston traded their biggest bat in June after sweeping the Yankees.
Normally, these types of trade would happen during the winter.
I think some people are getting carried away by what happened with Detroit last year.

Does that mean anything for Bregman? I don't see him opting out after the injury.
Maybe that's the point. They were expecting Bregman to opt out and now figuring that he could be in Boston for 3 years decided to unload Devers at the first opportunity?

I think that Devers was finished in Boston after their owner flew to Kansas City to meet with him about a positional change (from DH to 1B). John Henry expected their highest-paid player to put the team's interests first. Devers didn't appreciate or respond to Henry's request. That started the weeks-long process that resulted in yesterday's trade. It's awkward that it's coming in the middle of a hot streak, but this is more of an ownership decision than a baseball decision.

Bichette is a solid regular, not a star. A complementary player on a great team like the Dodgers. His wRC+ puts him 15th in the majors amongst shortstops and many directly below him are there with excellent defensive metrics, which he doesn't have. He's basically Dansby Swanson with less defensive skills.

His best shot at a big deal is probably Detroit but it's looking more and more likely that he'll have to take a short-term deal in a good environment and try for a better 2026 - unless he finds another gear in the second half.

John Henry opining about the good of the team is, something? This is the same John Henry that forced the trade of Mookie Betts because he was too cheap to sign him. The same John Henry that (wink, wink) totally didn't run Terry Francona out of town and smear him in the paper he owned (Boston Globe). That John Henry?

"It's awkward that it's coming in the middle of a hot streak, but this is more of an ownership decision than a baseball decision."

This pretty much. Ownership spent a ton of money in early 2000s and had a lot of success and multiple world series. Owner decided to start running the team like the TB Rays and hired Chaim Bloom to bring payroll down and build the farm system so they could spend less. That worked from a payroll perspective and now it's working from an on-field perspective (after many bad seasons by Boston standards). From the fans perspective they traded away Mookie Betts and now Rafael Devers for players that won't amount to a lot. The only saving grace is the fact that they made a great farm system with players like Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell as well as Garret Crochet who they acquired using their strong farm.

So, in my mind the owner who had a competitive team and was paying a lot for it decided to cut the expenses, period and pretend to contend until the farm system got a lot better. Now that it's a lot better he wants to keep the long term contracts off the books and build around a young core who will eventually come up due for long contracts only to be overpaid. Will ownership then go back to having a high payroll at that later date to keep the new core in place or will they shuttle them off like Mookie Betts to try to rebuild again? Or will they do what Rogers is doing and any good FO should try to do which is to continue spending while also developing a strong core and farm. Ah, there is the rub...no team has consistently done this without turning in multiple losing and bad seasons.

For clarification Rogers has been trying to do this, though not successfully (yet) as we all know.

Without getting into deeper waters about ownership and behaviours, I’ll say this about the Fenway ownership group. I’m a lifelong Liverpool FC fan. As you probably know the Premiership has no salary cap like MLB. Liverpool are big salary and transfer fee spenders but they do stick fairly ruthlessly to internal spending caps. As a result their contact extensions with star players can be difficult and the group appears to stick very much to the concept of contract efficiency. Regardless of the size of the contract, if they think there’s negative value in a contract there’s trouble in River City. On the spectrum of running a team strictly as a business vs trying to win, they tilt towards running the team like a business for better or for worse.

No mention of the ESL, Nigel? Or is that scab still too fresh :)

I try to think about the "system" of European football as little as possible:) It's enough to make a fan cry.

Right. Fenway Sports Group just spent 156M on a German midfielder. All to make Red Sox fans really happy.

Clement is so great that the Jays should be looking to trade him instead of Bichette. Teams will no doubt be lining up to part with premier talent for a 4 WAR player who will be cheap through 2028.

I'm not sure if that's sarcasm or not (I am a big Clement fan). That actually is a great play I would endorse for the FO. Trade Ernie and resign Bo at a Willy Adames level for 7 years.

Plausible Best Possible Lineup, using....

(asterisk = platoon only)


...This Year's Stats Only:

1. DH Springer 258pa, .354obp, 133wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 309pa, .375obp, 127wrc+
3. C Alejandro 230pa, .357obp, 122wrc+
4. RF Barger 172pa, .320obp, 122wrc+
5. 3B Clement 236pa, .326obp, 110wrc+
6. CF Varsho 100pa, .240obp, 107wrc+
7. SS Bichette 321pa, .312obp, 104wrc+
8. LF Lukes* 234pa, .364obp, 117wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 176pa, .291obp, 79wrc+

B. UT Santander 209pa, .273obp, 65wrc+
B. OF Straw* 131pa, .294obp, 79wrc+
B. IF Schneider* 45pa, .356obp, 93wrc+
B. C Heineman 66pa, .415obp, 181wrc+

X. UT Roden 101pa, .267obp, 55wrc+
X. OF Clase 85pa, .374obp, 61wrc+
X. IF Wagner 68pa, .284obp, 50wrc+
X. C Sanchez 11pa, .182obp, 20wrc+

X. UT Stefanic 25pa, .280obp, 40wrc+
X. OF Robertson 4pa, .250obp, 38wrc+



...Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

1. DH Springer 611pa, .332obp, 121wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 705pa, .399obp, 165wrc+
3. C Alejandro 488pa, .344obp, 113wrc+
4. RF Santander 601pa, .300obp, 112wrc+
5. 2B Clement 564pa, .303obp, 102wrc+
6. 3B Barger 379pa, .291obp, 100wrc+
7. SS Bichette 381pa, .299obp, 92wrc+
8. CF Varsho 373pa, .274obp, 93wrc+
9. LF Lukes* 234pa, .364obp, 123wrc+

B. UT Schneider* 270pa, .259obp, 54wrc+
B. OF Straw* 135pa, .292obp, 78wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 536pa, .285obp, 74wrc+
B. C Heineman 80pa, .392obp, 155wrc+

X. UT Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 92wrc+
X. OF Clase 116pa, .313obp, 89wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 65pa, .308obp, 134wrc+

X. UT Roden 101pa, .267obp, 55wrc+
X. OF Loperfido 219pa, .242obp, 62wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 130pa, .279obp, 50wrc+
X. C Sanchez 107pa, .208obp, 12wrc+

X. UT Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 92wrc+
X. OF Robertson 4pa, .250obp, 38wrc+



...Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections:

1. SS Bichette 366pa, .324obp, 114wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 381pa, .372obp, 142wrc+
3. C Alejandro 378pa, .350obp, 117wrc+
4. RF Santander 267pa, .312obp, 114wrc+
5. 3B Barger 291pa, .313obp, 107wrc+
6. RF Springer 346pa, .327obp, 111wrc+
7. CF Varsho 295pa, .292obp, 103wrc+
8. LF Lukes* 149pa, .341obp, 111wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 350pa, .320obp, 103wrc+

B. UT Schneider* 63pa, .323obp, 106wrc+
B. OF Roden 157pa, .336obp, 107wrc+
B. IF Clement 161pa, .309obp, 102wrc+
B. C Heineman 93pa, .322obp, 94wrc+

X. UT Wagner 31pa, .344obp, 110wrc+
X. OF Clase 110pa, .295obp, 86wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 8pa, .338obp, 110wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 4pa, .277obp, 91wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 8pa, .297obp, 92wrc+
X. OF Straw* 87pa, .302obp, 77wrc+
X. IF Martinez 20pa, .277obp, 87wrc+
X. C Sanchez 4pa, .282obp, 77wrc+

X. UT Stefanic 9pa, .356obp, 109wrc+
X. OF Robertson 39pa, .283obp, 83wrc+

Ron Taylor has died. A former major leaguer (Miracle Met) he came back to Toronto to become a Dr. After he retired. He was the Jays team Dr. For decades (and my family Dr. Growing up).

Jon Morosi: "going for it is the new market efficiency."

I remember buying programs at the Ex in the late 70's, and Dr. Taylor always had a page. Very cool that he was also your family doctor, Glevin.

Canada's Moonlight Graham.

From MLBTR: "the Braves, Blue Jays and Padres had also inquired about Devers’ availability. Ultimately, those teams weren’t willing to top the Giants’ offer."

This was reported by Sean McAdam of MassLive in a paywalled article.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing that. If true, that trade rumour suggests that the Blue Jays still have payroll space available. I guess they were looking at Devers as a third baseman and/or DH. Not sure what they would have done with Barger and Santander in that scenario. Maybe they were envisioning Devers at third base and Clement at shortstop next season.

I'm guessing Jays would have sent Santander or maybe Springer to Boston as salary ballast.

Swanson DFAed. Francis to IL. Paxton Schultz & Justin Bruihl (another LHP) up.

Great move with Francis to buy time to get him right. Also glad to see the short leash on Swanson, who clearly didn't have it right now.