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Next up, it's the A's, who are coming off a 4-2 homestand against the AL Central's bottom feeders. Their pitching will be a stiffer challenge than it was the last time the Jays saw them, as Dan Haren and a certain righthander are both scheduled to start, and the Athletics bullpen is almost at full strength again.


Tonight, better grab an umbrella. It's Joe Blanton, who will attempt to make it rain on Shaun Marcum's parade. Blanton maintains his 6'3, 250-pound frame by eating more innings (6.86 per start) than any American League starter not named C.C. Sabathia or Roy Halladay. He has 3 complete games, including one against these very Blue Jays, which puts him in a four-way tie for second behind the one and only Roy Halladay. Blanton is an aggressive four-pitch righty control freak with a very good 3.62 K/BB and an above-average groundball rate. The two things that set him apart from all the other righty control freaks in the majors are his hard two-seamer in the low 90s and his nasty 12-6 hook. He likes to work quickly. Among Jays, Reed Johnson is 4-7 with two doubles, a homer, a walk and no strikeouts against Blanton, while Rios, Wells and Overbay have homered.

Poor Dustin McGowan. Two straight home starts, and they just happen to come against two AL Cy Young frontrunners - first the amazing Kelvim Escobar, and now the amazing Dan Haren. I threw together 444 words about Haren here in anticipation of his last start at the RC, in which he surrendered 9 runs in 5.2 innings and still managed to pick up the win. For some reason I can't really remember anything else about that game, even though I was there, except some vague image of Ryan Roberts darting into the clubhouse in the third inning for no apparent reason. What a goofball. Anyway, Haren's 2.54 ERA in 2007 is bottoms in the American League, and although he certainly benefits from the Oakland Coliseum factor, his home ERA - 2.56 - is actually slightly higher.

I don't think Haren is the best pitcher in baseball, but it's not hard to see how he could win multiple Cy Youngs in the near future. He's just a complete, polished ace with enough stuff to dominate. He's got the fastball around 93, the devastating splitter in the mid-80s, and the ability to change speeds on his underrated slider at will. Plus a curve and change which he'll break out a couple of times in most starts. He'll sometimes use the splitter to get ahead of hitters early as well as to finish them off (though if he falls behind 2-0 or 3-1, he'll probably save it for later). Vernon Wells will see at least one first-pitch splitter tonight. Promise. Probably in his first at-bat. He's 5-14 with a homer, 2 walks and a triple against Haren. Gregg Zaun has also taken Haren deep twice; Stairs, Rios and Glaus have done so once. Haren has a 5.73 ERA against the Jays - among AL teams, only the Indians have fared better against him.

The Wednesday starter is a 35-year-old righty from Tijuana in the second year of a three-year contract. He is making his first start of 2007 after battling neck and knee injuries throughout the first half. Fastball, great cutter, slider, change, wasn't anything special until he learned the cutter in 2003 and almost stole Doc's Cy Young. The Wednesday starter really came on strong in the second half last year when he suddenly started reaching 95 mph with his fastball. Word is he was hitting a respectable 91 in his last rehab start and had perfect command of everything. Clearly, he can smell Blue Jay blood in his future. Please don't read that article. It contains his name. In the last two years, the Wednesday starter is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA against the Jays, including a complete-game shutout at the RC last year.

Closer Huston Street has been phenomenal when healthy this season. He's always been one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to homer off - he's given up 8 in his three-year career - but this year his strikeout rate has skyrocketed. He missed two months due to ulnar nerve irritation in his right elbow. He actually spent a couple of weeks in Toronto resting the elbow under the watchful eye of Dr. Anthony Galea. He was out of action for 63 games, but he's successfully returned to the closer's role and hasn't reported any pain in the elbow. He pitched the last inning of yesterday's 6-1 win over the Royals.

Rookie outfielder and walk machine Travis Buck "felt something in his leg" in Saturday's loss while running the bases and exited in the sixth inning. He's day-to-day; Jeff DaVanon will replace him in centerfield. The A's are also open to the possibility of sending Nick Swisher out there and playing Dan Johnson at first, creating an outfield of Shannon Stewart, Swisher and... Jack Cust. Yikes. That's a cruel joke, and it's too bad none of Oakland's three scheduled starters are true flyballers.

Mark Ellis has hit 16 homers, one shy of the Oakland record for most longballs in a season by a second baseman. This should do wonders for his Gold Glove candidacy. He's sure-handed: one year removed from leading AL second basemen in fielding percentage, he also has an 83-game errorless streak, which almost came to an end Saturday on a strange interference ruling. With Joey Gathright (who can jump over a car) on first, Mark Teahen hit a slow grounder to second, and Gathright collided with Ellis. Umpires called interference on Ellis, claiming that the ball was past him when he ran into Gathright, and Ellis was charged with an error on the play. However, he quickly got that overturned, so the streak marches on.

Marco Scutaro and Dan Johnson both homered yesterday. They have also seen their playing time slip recently, and they're not happy. According to the SF Chronicle's Rusty Simmons, "As he rounded the bases, Scutaro was cheering out loud, he emphatically slapped hands with third-base coach Rene Lachemann and stared into the dugout. But he took the political route in the clubhouse." Scutaro has been blocked by hustling infielder Donnie Murphy for some reason. That reason is almost certainly that his full name is Donald Rex Murphy (thanks, Rob).

27-year-old third baseman Jack Hannahan was in the midst of a minor-league career year, hitting .296/.424/.479 with the Tigers' AAA affiliate in Toledo. When Eric Chavez went on the DL with back spasms, the A's sent outfielder Jason Perry to Detroit for the lefty Hannahan and his IL-leading on-base percentage. Hannahan went 0-14 in his first 14 career major-league at-bats before breaking the oh-fer with a double off Mark Buehrle. He shares the two given names "John Joseph" with Jack Cust.

And watch out for 6'6 rookie righty Andrew Brown's high-90s fastball. Brown was acquired in the Milton Bradley trade. Thus far, he's made Billy Beane look pretty good. He's pitched 23.1 outstanding innings with the A's, striking out 29, walking 4, posting a 0.73 WHIP and throwing 5 wild pitches.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.

Note - Lord Voldemort's stat line is from 2006.


Advance Scout: Athletics, August 20-22 | 94 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#173328) #
Donald Rex Murphy

Why does this put me in mind of the bassist Donald Duck Dunn? 

Here is Hannahan's minor league record from 2004.
Thomas - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#173330) #

For those who don't remember, Jason Perry is a former Toronto farmhand who was the PTBNL in the deal that netted us Jason Arnold and John Ford-Griffin.

I'm glad to see Dee Brown's perseverance has paid off and he's back in the majors (however temporarily).

Mick Doherty - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#173332) #
What happened to Brown, anyway? Wasn't he supposed to be The Next Great Thing in KC, once upon a time?
Lefty - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#173335) #
I've been thinking this for some time and mentioned it in a game chat a couple months ago, Shaun Marcum reminds me of Dan Haren.

Now looking at their respective stats one on top of the other in this report I can see certain similarities.

Anybody with a degree in sabrmetric's want to take that on as a research subject.

Wishful thinking? Or am I completely mad?

Seamus - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#173336) #
Ken Rosenthal writes again that the Jays probably will shop Glaus this offseason. 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7137338

The field turf and Glaus' frequent injuries apparently playing a factor in this decision.

I like Glaus, but I hope they do shop him around.  They need to do something to shake up this offense.

Magpie - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#173337) #
Shaun Marcum reminds me of Dan Haren.

Well, seeing as how until recently he kept reminding people of Josh Towers... tell me more! tell me more!

Actually, all their statistical similarities (until this year anyway!) aside - the fundamental difference between Marcum and Towers is the change-up. Marcum's got a dandy, and it's exactly what Towers needs, desperately. Towers actually throws a little harder than Marcum, but the only other pitch he really trusts is a slider. He's got nothing off-speed that he can count on.
CaramonLS - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#173338) #
I like Glaus, but I hope they do shop him around.  They need to do something to shake up this offense.

Not to mention at his lowest point in value.  His numbers have been in a free fall and he has been scuffling since the ASB.  Could have gotten a much, much better return at the deadline.
Pistol - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#173343) #
Well, in theory, yes.

I don't think there was any source that had a name offered up in a potential Glaus trade (besides Jack Wilson!).  And we don't really know what a team might offer in the off season.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#173353) #
Well, Griffin did it again.  He made me shake my head in wonder at his bizarre stories.  He has a column where he is praising Johnson and blasting JP & Gibbons for not playing Johnson everyday, but mixing in Stairs a lot.  Checking the numbers (which a lazy writer never does)...

Johnson - 270/333/384
Stairs - 288/359/545

So, from an offensive POV there is no question who should play.

Since the ASB Johnson has played in 35 of 37 games, getting 114 AB's or over 3 per game.  Sounds pretty everyday to me.

Since the ASB Stairs has played in 25 games and had just 62 AB's.

To me the question isn't why Johnson has missed two games but why Stairs has missed a dozen and had so few AB's in the games he did play.

Griffin, if you read this, please learn to check the facts before writing a story.

wdc - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#173355) #
I was surprised when I heard this morning that John Gibbons used Dustin McGowan as a pinch runner last night.   What is the rationale for this decision?  No one else on the bench who can run?  Are there not considerable risks in having a very much valued and promising starting pitcher take on this role?  Is it not even more surprising that he would be asked to do it the night before he starts a game?  Personally, I find the decision bizarre.  It lowers my faith in "Gibby" even more.
AWeb - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#173357) #
I find it bizarre that people worry when a 25-year old athlete is asked to run 180 feet, once. Yes, there is a risk, but it's very small. McGowan got a couple of hits in interleague play this year; I didn't worry then, or last night. They guys have played baseball their whole lives, base running shouldn't be a problem. Although if McGowan gets hit hard in his next start, I'm sure someone will find a way to blame it on this.

For the purposes of saving the hitters on the bench, I liked the move. Why waste the short bench pinch-running, when no one on the bench is particularly fast anyway?

Cudos to Towers, making his first appearance in two weeks and pitching so well.

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#173358) #
Running the bases won't hurt McGowan. You can always tell him not to slide, or something.

I wouldn't trade Glaus right now. He's obviously struggling because of his bad foot. I'd like to see what happens when his foot heals. Right now, his trade value is down.

Besides, if the Jays trade Glaus, who's going to play third? The Jays don't have anybody waiting to step in to take Glaus's spot. At the moment, the backup is Russ Adams. And they don't need to dump salary.

Pistol - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#173364) #
Are there not considerable risks in having a very much valued and promising starting pitcher take on this role?

If he were running on his hands, maybe.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#173366) #
Pinch-running McGowan is absolutely fine. 
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#173367) #
First of all, I personally don't understand the rationale of PRing to begin with. You are down by 3 runs, so I don't think it's entirely necessary. Especially with Glaus coming up, who has a tendency to either go deep, K, or pop out. How many little singles does he hit anyways, that Frank himself wouldn't score on? And if you are going to anticipate getting back into the game, aren't you worried it might go into extra innings, in which case you are going to need Frank's bat to win you the game?

Secondly, the problem is not that he used a pitcher to run. It's which pitcher he used. There is absolutely no reason to go to your most prized young possession who is pitching tomorrow, especially when you already have Towers on the mound. If you are so intent on PRing (which I think is unnecessary if not wrong), why not just stick with Towers? You have a guy stashed away who basically pitches once every 2 weeks and he is in the game right now anyways. He's the guy you send out there to run, not McGowan. If he knew he was going to be using Hill, Zaun, and Stairs in the next 3 ABs, that means Olmedo was going to need to come in anyways in the event of a tie to play SS. So the entire bench would have burned anyways, which means there was a possibility McGowan would have had to bat, which means there is absolutely no harm in running with Towers there instead of McGowan.

Whether or not these guys are tremendous athletes isn't the issue. Pitchers in the AL do close to zero running to begin with, and it's not entirely inconceivable that by taking a "non-runner" off the bench who isn't warm you can cause a muscle tightness sort of injury. Or else other stuff can happen, who knows - baseball is a weird game. I don't need to explain all the little things that can go wrong on the basepaths, because frankly, they are irrelevant. The bottom line is there was no reason to use McGowan.
Brian W - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#173368) #
Having a pitcher run the bases is perfectly safe - unless you're Todd Stottlemyre and haven't figured out that you shouldn't slide chin first.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#173370) #
Towers could not pinch run if he is already in the game. You can only pinch run with someone who is not in the game. Yes, the DH is there for the pitcher but you cannot decide to shift the pitcher into the game as a pinch runner, if I recall the rules correctly. Plus doing so would remove the DH and then, if the games keeps going, your pitcher would have to hit or you'd have to pinch hit for them each time which isn't an option Gibbons would want to deal with.

As to the general idea of pinch running with your starting pitchers, the Jays used to do this all the time in the Bobby Cox/Jimy Williams eras. Dave Stieb pinch ran a lot, scoring runs in 1981 and 1986 while getting to hit & play the field even in 1980 at the age of 22. Jimmy Key also was used on occation to run early in his career. Neither was hurt and I cannot recall hearing of a pitcher getting hurt outside of Stottlemyre in the WS, which didn't stop him from pitching the next inning anyways.

A manager, in this era of short benches, should really work with his starting pitchers on this. Especially for a team with slow pokes like Thomas, Glaus, and Zaun. Running is something pitchers do to keep their legs in shape, so mixing in some baserunning drills would probably be a good thing. Also, I figure it helps teamwork long term if the starters are being used on their days off. Keeps them alert and in the game when they otherwise would be sitting around wondering what to do until their next start :)
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#173371) #
Yes he could have. Or at least Wilner thinks he could have.
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#173372) #
Plus doing so would remove the DH and then, if the games keeps going, your pitcher would have to hit or you'd have to pinch hit for them each time which isn't an option Gibbons would want to deal with.

I dealt with that.

"If he knew he was going to be using Hill, Zaun, and Stairs in the next 3 ABs, that means Olmedo was going to need to come in anyways in the event of a tie to play SS. So the entire bench would have burned anyways, which means there was a possibility McGowan would have had to bat, which means there is absolutely no harm in running with Towers there instead of McGowan."
dan gordon - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#173373) #

Well, Griffin did it again

Yes, no doubt Stairs has better numbers than Johnson.  The thing with Griffin is that he is one of those guys that has never caught on to the value of on base percentage and slugging percentage.  He is one of the old guard that likes guys who run fast, steal bases, bunt, and play good defense.  He is always going to prefer guys like Johnson to guys like Stairs.  That's just the way he looks at things, and he's not going to change.  He should go and write for a team like the Angels who seem to like that kind of player.   The reason he hates JP is that JP puts a lot more emphasis on the stuff that Griffin doesn't value highly, and a lot less emphasis on the stuff that Griffin likes.  They have completely opposite views on what constitutes a good ball player.

Thomas - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#173375) #

I actually remarked to a friend at the game that pinch-running McGowan was one of Gibbons' better moves recently. It was good foresight to see that he'd have to use the remaining bench players in the 9th (Zaun and Stairs pinch-hitting and Olmedo coming in for defence should the Jays have tied the game) and thus couldn't waste one there. Worry about trying the game first and then what to do the pitcher batting later.

To me that scenario speaks more for the need of a 5th bench player, but we've beaten that horse before.

Chuck - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#173377) #
Mark Redman is a Rockie, or a AA Rockie anyway. Not sure what the expectations were when the Jays picked him up.
James W - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#173378) #

Pitchers in the AL do close to zero running to begin with

I'd be willing to gamble that at least 95% of American Leage pitchers do some running every day.  Running is not some specialized skill that is limited to the 13 non-pitchers on the roster.

Leigh - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#173380) #
at least 95% of American League pitchers do some running every day

That'll go down to 94% if David Wells catches on with an American League team...
James W - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#173382) #
Coincidentally, David Wells was the pitcher I had in mind when I decided not to say "Every pitcher runs..."
Ron - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#173383) #
I wouldn't trade Glaus right now. He's obviously struggling because of his bad foot. I'd like to see what happens when his foot heals. Right now, his trade value is down.

Considering Glaus has plantar fascitis, I'm not even sure he will 100% healthy to start next season. If a team is willing to give up a lot for Glaus, the Jays should consider trading him.

I like mighty Troy but I don't like the chances of him being able to play 145+ games going foward.
DiscoDave - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#173385) #
I have plantar fascitis, and even partially tore it from my heal playing basketball a few years ago, but once I got custom orthotics I have never had a problem with my feet except in very cold weather.  I would have to assume that Troy has been fitted with orthotics and is on the way to recovery.  After an off-season of rest and his new "feet" this is a non-issue.  I would be more worried about his back than his feet.

Good move pinch running a pitcher, I might have not run tomorrow starter but I would have made the move myself.

Griffin is just stirring the pot to get himself publicity.  He has a been with management and will do pretty much anything to make them look bad.  This time it clearly backfired.
Dave Till - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#173386) #
Reed Johnson is a hard-working, hustling ballplayer. I love watching him play. I am rooting for him to do well. But most good teams have a left fielder with far more offensive production than what Reed/Lind has contributed this season.

Except for one extremely wonderful hot streak in 2006, Reed has always been best utilized as a platoon player: he plays with such energy that he usually has done best when given regular rest. And this was before the back surgery.

One of the Jays' greatest disadvantages is that they aren't getting significant power from either the left field or the first base position. Most teams have power hitters playing these positions.

Manhattan Mike - Tuesday, August 21 2007 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#173387) #

The thing with Griffin is that he is one of those guys that has never caught on to the value of on base percentage and slugging percentage.

Well, he did work for the Expos.

I have no problem with an old school guy who doesn't think along the lines of the philosophies espoused here and other, more in-depth baseball circles.  But Griffin's work goes beyond this. He lacks the basic professionalism in his work that one should expect from the baseball beat writer of the city's most important media outlet. What makes Griffin a horrible writer is not that he fails to see the value of the deeper, non-traditional stats - it's that he's routinely careless and ignorant with the basic ones.

Oh, and by the way, did you guys know that Griffin used to work for Expos?

jeff mcl - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#173393) #
Ugh.  This Griffin piece is more sour, vindictive and selective with the facts than the last: http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/248691

I wonder why someone who hates the Jays so much doesn't take on another sports beat?

Dave Till - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#173394) #
I don't think Griffin hates the Jays. I sometimes think, though, that he sees his role as Bringer Of Truth, or Reality Therapy Specialist. (More on this theory here.) It's also worth remembering that his employer is the Toronto Star, not the Toronto Blue Jays.

One of the things I enjoy least about being a Blue Jays fan is that, after a close loss, I also have to face  "I told you they weren't good enough" columns from several of the more ornery baseball writers. It's like sharing an office with a Yankee fan or something: it's a little bit more [unprintable] that you have to eat.



ahitisahit - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#173395) #
It's time to play for pride, because the WC is out of reach at this point. It was nice to see the Jays tie it up against a tough pitcher last night. I would have liked to see McGowan come out for one more inning, but it wouldn't have mattered. I just think he was pitching better and could have made it through the 6th.
Manhattan Mike - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#173396) #

Ugh.  This Griffin piece is more sour, vindictive and selective with the facts than the last: http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/248691

Griffin writes "It's no longer the Big Three starting pitchers who are leading the way for the A's. Instead, it's the unheralded trio of Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Chad Gaudin... They were to be the poor man's equivalent of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder."

Hmmm... Let's look at the numbers (ERA/WHIP/ERA+):

Haren: 2.66/1.12/162, Blanton: 3.84/1.17/113, Gaudin: 4.25/1.5/102

Mulder: 7.14/1.70/62; Zito: 4.88/1.44/90; Hudson: 3.07/1.18/140

Does this guy know anything about baseball? Is he really suggesting that the A's would have been better off signing Mulder, Zito, and Hudson to long-term deals?

He then writes, later in the article, that: "The Jays have lost 798 games to injury. The A's have lost 964 man-games. The Jays are counting Davis Romero and John Thomson for 193 of those missed games."

Does this mean that Griffin considers Chris Snelling (out since mid-May) and Chris Denorfia to be the second coming of Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio? Or do only missed games by lesser players on the Jays roster count in the Griffin tally?

I just don't understand how he manages to stay employed.

Manhattan Mike - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#173397) #

qI don't think Griffin hates the Jays. I sometimes think, though, that he sees his role as Bringer Of Truth, or Reality Therapy Specialist. (More on this theory here.) It's also worth remembering that his employer is the Toronto Star, not the Toronto Blue Jays.

Dave,

As I've said here many times, it's not that I have a problem with his feelings towards the organization, its management or its players. Further, I could care less whether or not Griffin's a Jays fan. So long as his pieces are insightful, well-written and factually correct, they would be a pleasure to read. Griffin's counterparts at the Star (Cathal Kelly in particular) and the writers at the Sun, Globe and Post generally meet these criteria, so I have no problem with them.

But to be a "Bringer of Truth", you have to write truths, whether they are enjoyable to read or not.  I for one think that the typical Damien Cox piece about how the Leafs are a third-line center away from winning the Cup is as ridiculous as Griffin pointing out that Alex Rios makes less than a million dollars.  When facts become things a writer can play loose with or simply get wrong, it's time for that writer to move on.

That Richard Griffin is an employee of the Toronto Star and not the Blue Jays, as you point out, makes his facutal indiscretions worse, in my mind. As a professional journalist employed by an organization unaffiliated with the club he covers, Griffin has a professional obligation to check his facts before publishing them.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#173399) #
Let's leave the fish in the barrel.  Aside from a couple of gratuitous catty remarks from Griffin about Ricciardi, I took from the article that the A's have dealt with adversity well this year.  There is probably at least some truth to that.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#173402) #

Oh, and by the way, did you guys know that Griffin used to work for Expos?

Yes ... Griffin (along with Geoff Baker) very graciously spent a great deal of time with Batter's Box  for a series of articles that ran in the Fall of 2003. I am not a regular reader of the Star, by any means -- living in Texas and all -- but generally find his work to be exceptionally well done. His opinions are maddeningly out of synch with mine at times, but he is, in fact, a hell of a writer.

 

Manhattan Mike - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#173403) #
Obviously, I disagree. That Griffin was gracious enough to take time out of his day for an interview speaks little towards his ability to publish insightful pieces about the team he covers. Frequent grammatical errors, attempts at wit that nearly always fall flat, and making arguments that are based on a complete disregard for the facts makes Griffin a pretty poor writer.

But enough of this. Let's get back to discussing the Jays and not a hack that covers them.
AWeb - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#173404) #
Note: Thank you Aaron Hill for breaking up the No-hitter in the fifth with a homer. A Voldemort no-no against the Jays would've been the worst thing to happen in the history of the world (possible hyperbole/exaggeration).
Squiggy - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#173405) #
A Voldemort no-no against the Jays would've been the worst thing to happen in the history of the world (possible hyperbole/exaggeration).

Ugh - listening to him stifle the Jays today is the perfect finish to a crappy and discouraging series. I had been holding out some hope for the big push for the WC, but the realist in me is seeing the futility now. Who would've thought that a lacklustre offense would be the crippling blow to the 2007 Jays? Especially now with all the regulars healthy.

GregJP - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#173406) #
I had been holding out some hope for the big push for the WC, but the realist in me is seeing the futility now.

The realist in me saw this after the 10 game losing streak.  I guess I'm just a pessimist. 

I'm thinking some of you also believe in god. 

but the realist in me is seeing the futility now.
Maldoff - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#173407) #
What has happened to our defense lately? It seems like the only guy playing decently in the field is JohnnyMac.
Flex - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#173408) #
I hope Ricciardi's stomach is sour after watching his team this series. I hope it causes him to rethink things.

And if Mickey Brantley still has his job after the off season, I'll take it as an indication that the Jays management is perfectly happy to let its team remain mediocre.



Radster - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#173409) #

9 game losing streak - let's not make it any worse that it actually was!

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#173413) #
This club needs to go 29-7 in its last 36 games to reach 92 wins.  Possible, but very, very unlikely.

At this point, I would be happy to see Ray Olmedo get the start at short almost every day and Curtis Thigpen every second day. 

Manhattan Mike - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#173416) #

At this point, I would be happy to see Ray Olmedo get the start at short almost every day.

Why, pray tell? Are you suggesting that Ray Olmedo, with a career minor league batting record of .260/.302/.343, is the long-term answer at short for a playoff-calibre team? Perhaps it's wiser to allow Johnny Mac to play every day and see what kind of result you can get out him in deciding how to approach a potential upgrade at that position in the off-season.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#173418) #
Olmedo is 26.  He has had 900 triple A at-bats from age 23-26 and hit .285 with decent plate discipline and no power.  I am sure that he is a better hitter than McDonald.  He runs better.  My impression is that he actually fields a little better as well, but that we will hopefully find out. 

We know that McDonald is not going to be good enough to help the Jays win in 2008 and succeeding years as a starting shortstop.  Olmedo may or may not be good enough, and the only way to find out is to play him almost every day.  The worst case scenario is that he is an exact replica of McDonald, and 6 years younger.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#173421) #
On a related point, we have been talking about possible shortstop trade targets.  Chris Nelson is a shortstop in the Rockies farm system, 21 years old, a former 2004 first-rounder who seems to be coming on and is blocked by Tulowitzki.  Modesto is in a hitter's league, but it's a real tough HR park for a right-handed hitter. 
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#173422) #
Actually, the worst case scenario is that he is nowhere near as good as JMac is defensively and starts airmailing his throws like he's a former Jays first round draft pick, and combines that with his already subpar bat from the minors. Future "JMac"s don't need to be given playing time. They need to stick around the game and impress a manager enough in practice and perhaps benefit from an injury to receive playing time. We don't need to see if we have another McDonald on our hands by testing Olmedo out for the rest of the year. If you want to give up on the season, that's fine. Get Marcum and McGowan out of the rotation soon and give their starts to Banks and Taubenheim (and perhaps give Janssen a couple of starts, a preview), Adams for Glaus, Lind for Johnson, Thigpen for Zaun...It's all or nothing, please. Heck, let Snider play first base in September, like other teams do with their hot shot hitting prospects (JUpton, CMaybin...)

Lefty - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#173423) #
Respectfully have to disagree with you Mike.

At this stage of his career and with the current crop of middle infielders, J-Mac is arguably the best  defensive player of the bunch.

I do not see how Olmedo is going to defensively exceed the rest of the AL shortstops, next year or in his career. I've never heard the term defensive whiz attached to his name. Maybe good defensively.

Like those who made a case for Greg Zaun a couple years ago saying he was a low mileage catcher, the same is true of MacDonald. He is -- figuratively -- in something like year three of his major league career. I'd call him a forced late bloomer and a guy who continues to improve his game.

To me even though there is the prospect he might only hit .230 next year, if Ricciardi can get the rest of the batting order together they can easily carry that level of offense.

And if Olmedo is any good at all and has a major league future, he can caddy until he takes over.
But I think you are just trying to be provocative.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#173424) #
I am not trying to be provocative at all.  I have said all season that I thought that Olmedo was the best of the shortstop options available to the club.  I was not alone among  Roster members in that respect. 

John McDonald has a career on-base percentage of .279.  It's at .281 this year.  It will go down a little bit as he ages.  He's a fine late-inning defensive substitute or occasional starter against lefties. It is one thing to be blind-sided by unexpected poor offensive seasons, as the Jays have received from Overbay, Wells, and Reed Johnson.  There is little that management can do.  But, when a 32 year old player performs at or better than his career norms, and those career norms are not enough, then management ought to do something.

vw_fan17 - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#173425) #
Second year in a row the A's have figuratively "taken the air out of our sails" in late summer.. I know, WC was a VERY long shot, but if we had swept the series instead of getting swept....

Last year, it was a series end of July, IIRC, where we either got swept or lost all but one, including a dramatic comeback by the As in the 9th (a game I happened to be at :-(.

VW

ahitisahit - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#173426) #

I disagree with giving Thigpen more time. He couldn't seem to figure out the signs when he was catching Marcum the other night, and of course Tabler pointed out he was tipping the signs to everyone in the ball park who happened to be watching. Young guys like Marcum and McGowan have enough to deal with without some turkey who barely knows the position screwing them up.

How many errors has Aaron Hill made in the last 2 weeks. Didn't see the game, but looks like AJ put in a decent effort for nothing again.

Gerry - Wednesday, August 22 2007 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#173436) #

Young guys like Marcum and McGowan have enough to deal with without some turkey who barely knows the position screwing them up.

So with your team effectively out of the race it is a bad time to let your potential future catcher learn on the job?  Do you only want to accept players onto the Jays who are fully ready for the major leagues?  Under this scenario Roy Halladay and Carlos Delgado, to name two, would never have been allowed to play.  Most players have a lot to learn when they reach the major leagues, you only learn by playing not by sitting on the bench.

I also take offense to the word turkey.  Battersbox is a site for civilized baseball discussion, if a rookie learning on the job is a turkey then those comments should go back to a bulletin board and you with them.

Seamus - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:54 AM EDT (#173437) #
Ugh.  A new article by Jeff Blair about how JP "may not do a thing this off season".

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070823.wspt-blair23/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home/

I'm not a J.P. basher, but I really find this unacceptable as a fan.  Even teams that have been really good this year probably wouldn't have the gall to say they're not going to try and improve.  I think the offense needs to be restructured and I think it's ridiculous that no changes are planned.  The team is lifeless.  I don't want to watch this again next year.

Chuck - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 07:41 AM EDT (#173439) #

But, when a 32 year old player performs at or better than his career norms, and those career norms are not enough, then management ought to do something.

I concur with this position. When it comes to evaluating MacDonald, objective analysis seems to be given short shrift. Steve Phillips was interviewed by TSN and fully supports heading into the 2008 season with MacDonald as the starter, which I guess is a roundabout way of defending the playing time St. Rey received under his stewardship in New York. I would think that Phillips' endorsement of a decision is reason enough to give it a close, second look.

Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#173440) #
Just finished reading Blair's article, and here's my $.02:
  • The Jays have a hole at shortstop because that was supposed to be Russ Adams' position. I'm not sure whether better scouting would have predicted that Adams would wash out at AAA, but this could be attributed to bad luck. (I've said all along that J.P.'s greatest flaw is that he isn't lucky enough.)

  • To accurately calculate John McDonald's worth, I think you need a metric that adds his miracle stops at short to his batting average. After all, a hit saved is equivalent to a hit produced, when you get right down to it. I don't think it's a coincidence that the starting pitchers have enjoyed a fine summer: they all tend to give up ground balls, and many of those ground balls are hoovered up by Mr. McDonald.

    Of course, the Jays would be better off if they could find a shortstop who can field like McDonald but actually hit. But there aren't many of those players around. (This is the source of the old saw that championship teams are strong up the middle.) What the Jays really need is a time warp, so that they can bring the young Tony Fernandez back from the past and install him at short.

  • Letting Frank Catalanotto go has turned out to be more costly than the Jays first thought. He bats left and is a gap hitter, which would be a refreshing contrast to the Jays' legion of right-handed pull hitters.

  • I think I see J.P.'s point about being forced to stick with what he has. Who do you trade? The Jays have too many right-handed power hitters, but they're the best hitters on the team (Rios, Glaus, Wells, Thomas). J.P. is probably not going to be able to find anybody better in any of those positions - and, even if he did, he's committed to paying a fair bit of money to Glaus, Wells and Thomas next year.

  • No one has pointed out that left field and first base are traditionally power positions, and that the Jays are currently playing hitters without power (Johnson, Overbay) at those positions. As much as I like both Reed and Lyle, that's a huge offensive deficit to have to overcome.

  • The 2007 Jays haven't been a particularly exciting team to watch, as they mostly stand around and wait in vain for someone to blast something over the fence. This might be fallout from 2006: last year, Gibbons was constantly sending runners and watching them get thrown out.

  • And the injuries haven't helped. Glaus used to be much more athletic; now, thanks to his foot, he's become a station-to-station runner. (Last year, he stole bases, played shortstop occasionally, and didn't look like a lumbering monster. He'll need to get that back next year, once his foot has presumably healed.) Johnson is probably still recovering from his back injury. Overbay is recovering from his broken hand. And so on.

  • I'm kind of annoyed at people who blame Vernon Wells for everything. Because he was given all that money, he's being asked to hit like Carlos Delgado, field like Devon White, and serve as the team's leader. That's a bit much to ask. It isn't his fault that he's had enough service time to cash in on the big money; he can only take what people are willing to give him. He seems to be putting in a good effort, and he obviously cares about winning; that's all you can demand of him.

  • If Curtis Thigpen is struggling with his mechanics behind the plate, there are some coaches in the Jays' minor league system that aren't doing their jobs. (Unless Thigpen is incapable of learning how to catch properly, due to athletic limitations or stubbornness.) This looks like a mission for Ernie Whitt.
I can see why J.P. is thinking of keeping the team together: there have been brief stretches where the offense looked like it was about ready to kick butt and take names. But power hitters tend to be streaky; there's always somebody in a huge offensive funk, which clogs up the batting order. This is where greater team speed would have been handy: as they say, speed never goes into a slump.

Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#173441) #
And one more thing: the Jays' greatest problem, for lo these many years, is that they are in the same division as two teams with unlimited budgets and tremendous records of success. Ted Rogers has loosened the purse strings a bit in the last couple of years, but the Yankees have the financial resources to do things like spend $20 million to reanimate the formerly lifeless body of Roger Clemens. And, if that doesn't work out, they can spend $20 million more on somebody else. It's like getting into a winner-take-all poker game with someone who can restock his pile of chips whenever necessary.

(For example, it's obvious to me what is going to happen with A-Rod. He'll opt out of his current contract, and sign an even richer one with the Yankees.)

If the Jays had been in the AL Central all along, they would have won at least two division titles in the last few years (2000 and 2003), and the franchise would be considered at least reasonably successful. It's worthwhile to compare the Jays, as a franchise, to the other teams in the division - who also face the disadvantage of having to play the Yankees and the Red Sox more than other teams do. Baltimore is in disarray, and has been for many years; free agents don't want to play there, and they haven't had a farm system. And Tampa Bay is even worse.

Frank Markotich - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#173444) #

One quibble with your points, Dave.

LF and 1B are offensive positions; I wouldn't say they require power per se. The key is the players overall run contribution, offensive and defensive. Of course, Overbay and Johnson have fallen short by any standard this year. Some or all may be related to their injuries, I don't know.

Oh, and while helping Thigpen with his defensive skills certainly sounds like a mission for Ernie Whitt, I have this uncomfortable feeling that taking the lineup cards out to the umpire is about as complex a task as old Ernie can handle.Does anyone know what Whitt's function on the team is? I mean, I know he's the bench coach and I know what a bench coach's role is supposed to be. I'm asking about Whitt in particular.

 

Chuck - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#173446) #

My $.02 on Dave's $.02 (and with the up-front confession that I am unduly frustrated, having attended yesterday's dreary affair which entailed, among other things, driving in from out of town)...

To accurately calculate John McDonald's worth, I think you need a metric that adds his miracle stops at short to his batting average

Of course, any resonable metric would consider both his offense and his defense. I just can't see his defense, as tremendous as it has been, coming close to offset his woeful bat.

No one has pointed out that left field and first base are traditionally power positions

I wouldn't say that, though I do concede that Overbay has been given a pass by many this season (some of the Wells-directed barking should be re-directed Lyle's way). Some, though not many, did question his contract given that he's now 30 (I think his late career start has duped many into believing he's younger than he is).

As for Johnson, I think the same lack of objectivity gets used for him as for MacDonald. These two are seen as gamers, wringing the most out of their abilities and as such, earning no small amount of sentimental appeal. The rose coloured glasses get employed when dispassionately evaluating the two of them.

In both cases, post-injury issues may well be contributing to their struggles.

I'm kind of annoyed at people who blame Vernon Wells for everything. Because he was given all that money, he's being asked to hit like Carlos Delgado, field like Devon White, and serve as the team's leader... He seems to be putting in a good effort, and he obviously cares about winning; that's all you can demand of him.

Wells has certainly been the team's lightning rod this season and probably disproportionately so. Still, sports is a result-based profession and an A for effort only buys you so much loving. I think what's frustrating about watching a typical Wells at-bat, is that it seems as though he's not trying as hard as he could. He is showing no discipline, swinging at absolutely everything, even though everyone watching knows that the pitcher will be baiting him with garbage. Someone who seemed to be trying would alter an offensive approach that is clearly not working. You know what Vernon, maybe don't swing at that chest-high pitch six inches outside.

I posed the question once before, and no one bit, but say Wells hadn't signed the extension and say this was his last season pre-free agency. What kind of numbers would he expect to see? I'm guessing the queue to make him a 9-digit franchise player would not be a long one, his "good effort" notwithstanding.

If Curtis Thigpen is struggling with his mechanics behind the plate, there are some coaches in the Jays' minor league system that aren't doing their jobs.

To say nothing of a manager who is an ex-catcher and a bench coach who is an ex-catcher. Just how many ex-catchers are needed in the stew?

For example, it's obvious to me what is going to happen with A-Rod. He'll opt out of his current contract, and sign an even richer one with the Yankees.)

I am expecting ARod to sign an extension. I think NY would love to keep alive the current contract so that Texas continues to subsidize it to the tune of $8M for each of the next two seasons.

Chuck - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#173447) #

Oh, and one more bit of howling...

I'd like to see Aaron Hill change his theme song. He sure seems tired these days, both at the plate and in the field. While he may well want to live life as an Iron Man, he appears to need more rest than he's been getting. Not sure what song would fit the bill.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#173448) #
There were questions about Adams' arm when he was drafted.  Those concerns had been amplified by the time he reached double A. When Hudson was traded, the organization had no backup plan in the middle infield; there was Russ Adams and Aaron Hill and that was it.  Later on, when it was clear that Adams was not going to be a shortstop, the backup plan was Royce Clayton and John McDonald.  Now, if Jeff Blair is correct, it will be just John McDonald until Justin Jackson is ready in 3-5 years (Jackson's success, like that of any 18 year old, is impossible to guarantee). As far as I am concerned, Ricciardi's handling of the middle infield beginning with the Hudson trade is his weakest point as a general manager. 

It's not just about money.  Mark Shapiro in Cleveland had Jhonny Peralta at shortstop last year, coming off a great rookie season.  Peralta was struggling.  Shapiro let him play through it, and acquired Asdrubal Cabrera cheap and moved him down to double A, and he has blossomed. Dave Dombrowski acquired Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco to build a middle infield and gave up very little in return.  That is a tough standard, of course.  Dombrowski and Shapiro are among the shrewdest GMs in the game.

Incidentally, UZR has John McDonald as an average fielder for his career.  BP's stats have him as a little above, and having a very good defensive year this year (but a long, long way from Ozzie Smith, and well behind Tony Fernandez' salad days in the mid 80s).  His defence simply cannot carry his bat on a full-time basis by any objective measure.

the mick - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#173453) #

I take one exception with Jeff Blair's article: The Jays were effectively done after the nine game losing streak.  Given the performance of the team over the past few years, there was no indication, and little hope, that they would go on a tear that would legitimately get them in a wild card or pennant race.  The Jays are good enough to be mediocre, with J.P. unwilling or unable, to get them truly into contention, which is what we fans pine for.  Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Johnson, and Zaun have all had horrible years (less than their 25th percentile PECOTA projections) and the Jays - no team - can succeed with five regulars gobbling up outs.  That this is the same team J.P. wants to field next year makes some sense - the hope that the hitters will come back to average - but is dispiriting to fans who, under his regime, get promised great things and get average results.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#173456) #
Dave, Chuck, and Mike,

"Letting Frank Catalanotto go has turned out to be more costly than the Jays first thought. He bats left and is a gap hitter, which would be a refreshing contrast to the Jays' legion of right-handed pull hitters."

It is so wrong to critique this move in hindsight. Yes, his LH bat worked perfectly with Reed last year, and yes, it would look perfect in our lineup this year. But JP had the MVP of AA waiting in the wings, who also happened to be penciled in for LF and came with a LH bat. The decision to let Cat go and not pay him the 13.5m over 3 years he received from Texas was the right one, especially considering that a sandwich pick? came our way for him.

It isn't his fault that he's had enough service time to cash in on the big money; he can only take what people are willing to give him. He seems to be putting in a good effort, and he obviously cares about winning; that's all you can demand of him.

My problem doesn't lie with Vernon himself. Obviously he is trying, and I am sure his lack of success pains him more than anyone. My beef is with Gibbons for keeping Vernon and Thomas in the 3-4 spots for so long when clearly both of them were "horrific" hitters early in the season. It cost us big time.

If Curtis Thigpen is struggling with his mechanics behind the plate, there are some coaches in the Jays' minor league system that aren't doing their jobs. (Unless Thigpen is incapable of learning how to catch properly, due to athletic limitations or stubbornness.) This looks like a mission for Ernie Whitt.

I have only seen from Thigpen what he has done on the major league level, so this may not be fair what I am about to say - I don't see any future there. Maybe as a bench infield player, but not as an everyday catcher. He has not looked good behind the plate at all, in my opinion. Whether or not the tools are there and it's the fault of the minor league system is hard to judge.

Of course, any resonable metric would consider both his offense and his defense. I just can't see his defense, as tremendous as it has been, coming close to offset his woeful bat.

I can. Besides the fact that JMac has been pretty much on par with guys like Uribe, Punto, Pena, and Lugo, I think you are ignoring the facts. JP tried to hide a crappy bat in the #9 spot and figured the rest of his offense would mask it. The idea is/was a good one, and it only looks shaky in hindsight because of seasons far off from their career averages from Overbay, Glaus, Wells, and Thomas. With a rolling offense, I would have zero problem with having JMac as the everyday SS, batting 9th, maybe losing some at bats to a LH SS off the bench vs RHP. Replacing him should NOT be one of JPs priorities this offseason. Locking him up for 2 years, 4 million should be.

I posed the question once before, and no one bit, but say Wells hadn't signed the extension and say this was his last season pre-free agency. What kind of numbers would he expect to see? I'm guessing the queue to make him a 9-digit franchise player would not be a long one, his "good effort" notwithstanding.

Now this is a point I like to get to, and say often. My problem when JP extended Vernon was not the length, or the terms. I felt that in today's baseball market which seems to be going up and up, that that contract could actually look good somewhere down the road. However, that being said, I still felt at the time that it was a horrendous signing, for 3 reasons. Firstly, they were buying high. Vernon was coming off his career season, and we all know he has a tendency to disappear for long stretches, so it may have been a better idea to see if you could buy low after a season of futility. Secondly, Vernon at 7m for this season had some pretty solid trade value. I think there were rumours of a Penny for Wells swap - whatever it is, it may not have been a bad idea to explore trading him for a SP and hitting prospect - that may have made them a better team in 2007, and would have freed up more dollars so that JP can sign Rios to an extension NOW, sort of like what he did with Hinske and Wells. Thirdly, there was going to be a wealth of OF/CF talent in this year's free agent class when Vernon was extended. There was Ichiro, Rowand, Cameron, AJones, and THunter, to name a few. I failed to see the pressing need to lock up Vernon over the winter, and I strongly suspect Godfrey played a very large, stupid role in ensuring that it happened.

I'd like to see Aaron Hill change his theme song. He sure seems tired these days, both at the plate and in the field. While he may well want to live life as an Iron Man, he appears to need more rest than he's been getting. Not sure what song would fit the bill.

Since I am addressing anything and everything, let me point out that I happen to enjoy Aaron's entry music. Iron Man only comes up towards the end of the game, usually in like the 7th or 8th innings. I like that "California" song he uses usually for his first AB. In the city...

 His defence simply cannot carry his bat on a full-time basis by any objective measure.

I know you don't like to argue Mike, but you do realize this is just your opinion, right? You like to state your thoughts as if they are fact, and they are not. The idea of hiding a superior defensive SS in the #9 spot is not a bad one, and is only magnified because of the struggles of the other players on the team. I for one agree with JP. Clearly you do not, and that's okay. Just don't make it sound like he HAS to be wrong, by any objective measure.




Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#173458) #
Thanks for the feedback.

I'm not a huge McDonald fan - I love watching him play, but he just can't hit. I'm just not sure that somebody like Olmedo would be a significant improvement. Olmedo would hit better, but not field as well.

I agree that having a backup plan in case Adams didn't work out would have been a good idea. But I think J.P. was more concerned about getting some pitching into the system.

I guess the moral is that it's hard to get from 85 wins to 95. You need to be really smart, or really lucky. You also need players who are among the best in the league. Halladay and Rios are up there right now, but that's about it.

It occurred to me that Wells reminds me a lot of Joe Carter at the plate. He has roughly the same weaknesses: he's vulnerable to low outside breaking stuff, and he's an aggressive rather than a selective hitter. (When Carter was here, he was accused of being "selfish" at the plate by hogging all the RBI opportunities for himself.)

Right now, we're seeing the costs of having Wells and his expensive contract around. We're not seeing the negative effects of letting him go. Had the Jays let Wells go, they would have continued to have a reputation as a small-market team that is not interested in winning. For better or worse, they don't have that reputation now; they just have a reputation as a team that might not be very good at trying to win.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#173459) #
UZR has McDonald at -4 runs defensively at shortstop over his career.  BP's Rate has him at 102 over his career.  The only Dial rating that I am aware of is his 2006 statistic, which showed him as +1. THT's metrics for 2007 do show him with good Revised Zone Rating and fielding Win Shares, but over the longer term, he's been got a negative Win Shares Above Bench.  Even using the most favourable measure for him, his 2007 Win Shares calculation which takes into account both offence and defence, he's barely over bench.  Of course, career records for a 32 year old are more predictive of future performance than one year statistics.

Now, subjectively, I agree that he's been a somewhat better than average defensive shortstop over his career, and better than UZR (the gold standard metric) suggests, and I do think that he's had a good year for him in 2007. But, some people have been carrying on as though he is better defensively than Tony Fernandez was in his prime, and that is both unsupported by the objective evidence nor my own observations of both. 

Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#173460) #
Mike, a serious question: what do you see in McDonald to rate him at only average? Is he slow to react, and is then forced to make up for it with spectacular-looking dives? Is he not as quick as some other shortstops?

I recall, back in the day, that the Jays' infielders have always had poor zone ratings. Roberto Alomar was consistently listed as below-average by many metrics, even though most observers rated him as a superior defensive second baseman.

I'm not exactly an expert observer, but to me it looks like McDonald is getting to a whole lot of balls out there.

Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#173461) #
Oops - you've rated him as somewhat above average. My bad.

I wouldn't rate McDonald as high as the young Tony - who was the best I've ever seen - but I'd rate him as better than just about anybody else the Jays have run out there. What are you seeing that I am missing?

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#173463) #
Mike, I am sorry for my lack of sophisticated baseball knowledge, so if you want to expound further on your first paragraph, I would love to hear it - as of now, none of that means a thing to me.

From what I have seen (and to be fair, I only see the other AL SSs for 3 games at a time) JMac is the best defensive shortstop in the AL. I'm not sure what all your numbers and stats are, but here are some of mine (that I JUST looked up, further reinforcing my previous conceived notions). He has the #1 Fielding Percentage of all starting SSs in the AL, as well as the #1 Zone Rating. He also has the #1 Range Factor, but I am pretty sure that is a useless stat.

If you think his defense this year is a "career year" and he is due for a serious drop next year, that's one thing. To just say that his defense can't carry his bat is wrong, because it has this year. And it might next year. How you know that it won't is beyond me. Stop looking at what he did over his career as a backup SS. All those years bear a lot less weight in my mind than the present, where he is the best defensive SS in the AL and hasn't looked all that awful at the plate. Sometimes there is a little more to baseball than just looking at a bunch of stats from 5 years ago.

Now, don't take this as me saying I don't think the Jays should pursue a SS for next year. I think they should. But it's going to have to be someone with a guaranteed "bat". If we are going to get someone who MIGHT give us .270/.330/.400, no thanks. I'll stick with JMac. I am fairly certain that he has more value to this team this year than any of your fancy websites can show, and that is my opinion, based upon a season's worth of watching. You simply cannot quantify his defense's value to the team. And JMac would not be the first weak hitting SS to play for the Blue Jays. I believe we had someone named Manuel Lee as our shortstop in 1992, him and his whopping .263/.343/.316. If you didn't think someone could slug any worse than JMac, it can be done, and it didn't stop us from winning our first World Series.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#173464) #
There's a lot of reading to do, BTRF.  Here's Dave Studeman's explanation of the recently-added THT metrics.  You can read about David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range at baseballmusings.com.  And John Dewan's Fielding Bible would make a great purchase.  Uniform Zone Rating statistics are available in an Excel file downloadable off a June, 2007 entry in the Book Blog (at www.tangotiger.net). 
Bid - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#173465) #

Not sophisto stats, but anyway...

John McDonald-lifetime

 240BA, 279OBP, 315SLG .972 fielding %age (including games at 2B )

Mark Belanger-lifetime

228BA, 300OBP, 280SLG .977 fielding %age

Paul D - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#173466) #

 To just say that his defense can't carry his bat is wrong, because it has this year.

What makes you say this?  To me, it's clear that his defence can't carry his bat, because this year, when he's having a banner defensive year, he's barely above a bench player (as demonstrated above).  Unless it's Adam Everett, you can't hide poor offensive players in your lineup, particularly if you don't plan on having superstars at 1B and LF.  And I think we need to be honest with ourselves here - J Mac is not a 'below average' offensive player, he's one of the worst regulars in MLB.

Shorstop is one of the easiest ways this team could upgrade this offseason.  The stating pitching is good, the bullpen is good, the outfield, while not outstanding, is not going to be changed.  Hill, Glaus and Overbay will be the starters in the infield next year.   The only easy places to upgrade are shortstop and catcher (and when I say easy, I mean it will be easy to find someone better than what they're getting currently.  You could improve any position, but finding someone better than HIll will be harder than finding someone better than McDonald).   JP has to look at these areas in the off season.

Now, I realize that there aren't that many quality Shorstops on the market, which could make this 'easy' upgrade difficult.  But too bad, that's JP's job.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#173467) #
I will make an effort to brush up on this, but none of it will make any effect on what I have seen with my own eyes this season - John McDonald is the best defensive shortstop in the American League this year, and no stats will convince me otherwise. His mediocre bat is fine to hide in the #9 spot in a healthy, productive Jays lineup. And that is what needs to be considered, especially if you are going to try and use stats from other years as a tool to evaluate JMac. One can't just assume Wells, Overbay, Glaus, and Thomas (well, maybe Frank) will all have years again well below their career norms and thus say we need a new SS, while at the same time using stats from years back to say that JMac is only an "above average" SS.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#173468) #
What makes you say this?  To me, it's clear that his defence can't carry his bat, because this year, when he's having a banner defensive year, he's barely above a bench player (as demonstrated above).  Unless it's Adam Everett, you can't hide poor offensive players in your lineup, particularly if you don't plan on having superstars at 1B and LF.  And I think we need to be honest with ourselves here - J Mac is not a 'below average' offensive player, he's one of the worst regulars in MLB.

Why can you not hide poor offensive players in your lineup? Did the Jays not do the same thing in 1992 with Manuel Lee? Do you not think with a return to their career norms by Glaus, Wells, and Overbay (and a productive platoon in LF) that the Jays can afford to house the league's best shortstop in the #9 spot. I do, and so did JP (although he didn't even care about D, he just figured with his 1-8 he could go with ANYBODY in the SS spot). Also, these ideas about our LF/1B make very little sense to me. Where a guy plays in the field has no relevance to his spot in the order or his bat. Overbay and Johnson are both above average defensively, so I am not sure why their positions come into play. If you think the Jays don't have a good enough offense because of them, now that's an entirely different story. To me, seeing as they aren't even in the upper tier of hitters on this team, it has no relevance. Our team happens to have its superstars at CF,RF,3B, and DH, while Boston has theirs at 1B and LF. What the heck is the difference?!?!
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#173470) #
Furthermore -

"Unless it's Adam Everett, you can't hide poor offensive players in your lineup,"

(
2007 fielding stats)

.973FP 4.92RF .870ZR Everett
.985FP 5.20RF .889ZR McDonald

Why is it okay to hide Everett, but not JMac? I just looked at Everett's career #s, and they just made me even more comfortable with having JMac as the starting SS next season.







Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#173471) #
One thing that just occurred to me: John McDonald looks good to Jays fans because his predecessors, Russ Adams and Chris Woodward, struggled at the position. Merely above average would seem awesome when compared with poor.

If I were making a case for McDonald, I'd point to the overall record of the Jays' pitching staff. Many pitchers took huge steps forward this year: Marcum has looked like a top-flight pitcher, McGowan has been dominant at times, Litsch has been good in spots, Accardo has become an effective closer, Janssen has been a reliable setup man, and Downs has been a very effective LOOGY. None of these pitchers looked like they'd be this good going into the season - and just about all of them are ground ball pitchers.

Of course, Hill and Overbay deserve as much of the credit for this as McDonald does - and Glaus has been at least okay, sore foot and all.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#173472) #
Manny Lee had an OBP of .343 in 1992, which was above league average, even if with the adjustment for the Skydome.  Lee was 27.  Actually, if anyone might give you a season like Lee's 1992, it is much more likely to be Olmedo than McDonald. 
Nigel - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#173474) #

Just to be clear, there is one hell of a difference between what MacDonald has provided to the Jays on offense this year and what Lee provided in '92.  Just for starters the OPS+ for Lee was 83 and MacDonald is 60.  OPS does not do a good job of giving Lee full offensive value credit for his .343 OBP.  Having Lee's OBP in the Jays '07 lineup would actually make a huge difference, given this line-up's OBP problems.  I just don't think people realize how catestrophically bad MacDonald's offense is.  If his offense was just below average or even bad, his defense might make the sum of the parts acceptable but his offense is sooo bad that you can't get there from here.

Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#173475) #
One more question: are the Jays considering Olmedo as a possible full-time shortstop, or is he just intended to be a reserve?

I wouldn't mind seeing Olmedo get an extended run at short. His defense looks at least passable, and he'll hit better than J-Mac. Then, the Jays can determine whether to try to find another shortstop.

Dave Till - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#173476) #
I'll just keep talking and talking, shall I? :-)

It occurred to me just now that a good comp for McDonald is Alfredo Griffin - Griff also made great plays at short, and couldn't hit a lick.

The Jays didn't make it over the top until they jettisoned Griffin, which is a point for the anti-McDonald camp.

I guess what I want is the obvious: the best possible combination of offense + defense.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#173477) #
The advanced metrics (UZR, Pinto, Dial) all agree that Everett has been the best defensive shortstop over his career.  Here's Dial's comments from 2006, and over the last 20 years. UZR has him at 33 runs saved per 150 games over his career. 

It is certainly possible that Everett has not performed as well as usual in 2007 due to the effects of his broken leg.

Thomas - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#173479) #

I just looked at Everett's career #s, and they just made me even more comfortable with having JMac as the starting SS next season.

As Mike suggested, John Dewan's Fielding Bible might make a good investment. His 2006 version has a very good article at the beginning by Bill James that demonstrates, using a variety of easy-to-understand stats and measurements, how good Adam Everett is defensively. James compares Everett to Jeter and concludes that Everett is leaps and bounds ahead of Jeter defensively. He leaves the rest up to the reader, if I remember correctly, but the essay, the stats later in the book and subjective evaluation (no, I don't count Gold Gloves) all show that Everett has been the best defensive SS in baseball for the past 5 years. It's a crime he hasn't won a Gold Glove or five.

Even with his great defence Everett can't be much more than an average SS overall because of his offence. However, he's worth it for the Astros because he is cheap and there are slim pickings at SS. As good as J-Mac's been this year with the glove, and I agree the stats underrate him and that if it was a just world he'd win the Gold Glove (or at least be shortlisted with Betancourt), to go into next year with him as anything more than an infield backup would be a mistake.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#173480) #
"Having Lee's OBP in the Jays '07 lineup would actually make a huge difference, given this line-up's OBP problems.  I just don't think people realize how catestrophically bad MacDonald's offense is.  If his offense was just below average or even bad, his defense might make the sum of the parts acceptable but his offense is sooo bad that you can't get there from here."

I don't think you realize how unreal his defense has been, how crucial it has been to the Blue Jays this year. I want to see a stat that can quantify Roy Halladay's DEMANDS that when he pitches, JMac plays SS. And the team's OBP problems have next to nothing to do with JMac, for the umpteenth time. It has more to do with seasons well below their career norms (I'm not even expecting last year's #s) from Glaus, Thomas, Overbay, Wells, and LF. I will continue to argue with every single person on this board and agree with JP that you can hide a fantastic defensive SS in the #9 spot, as long as the rest of your team is hitting. Julio Lugo, Juan Uribe, and Nick Punto (who plays 3b, but you get the point) are all carried by "contenders". The Jays can afford to carry the league's best shortstop IF the rest of their hitters return to their career norms.
Thomas - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#173481) #

Even with his great defence Everett can't be much more than an average SS overall because of his offence.

Here I'm referring to years like 2006, when Everett's OPS+ was 63. When it was in the 80's or high 70's, he likely was an above average SS when one factors in his defence.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#173482) #
It is certainly possible that Everett has not performed as well as usual in 2007 due to the effects of his broken leg.

JMac's 2007 FP and ZR are both better than Everett's career #s. Maybe JMac actually is this good defensively, and you need to throw out the years as a part time player out the window? Is that possible? Where do these advanced metrics rank JMac's DEFENSE this year?
Nigel - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#173483) #

Just beating a dead horse here but MacDonald makes even Everett seem like an offensive juggernaut - career OPS+ - MacDonald 56 and Everett 69 (Everett also has a career 20 point OBP advantage).

I say all of this yet I would not have an objection to MacDonald returning as a back-up infielder next year.   It would not be how I spent my money (I would take Olmedo at a league minimum) - but at a low cost it would be defensible (it would be more defensible if they had another infielder who could hit but needed late inning defensive replacement - but that doesn't really describe the rest of the Jays infield - long term injury replacement is more likely a back-ups job with the Jays).  Now the idea of giving him 2 years and $4m is ridiculous to me.  The team needs someone like Eric Hinske (a lefthanded bat that can play 1B,3B and the outfield) for that kind of money far more than John MacDonald.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#173484) #
You do realize that just in arbitration Everett already makes 2.8m, and by the time he is a FA, a heck of a lot more than that?

JMac is DEFINITELY worth 2m a year, even as a backup. That kind of money does not get you Eric Hinskes, not when the Shea Hillenbrands of the world get 6.5m in the offseason.

Magpie - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#173485) #
To accurately calculate John McDonald's worth, I think you need a metric that adds his miracle stops at short to his batting average

Not his miracle stops - just the plays he makes that an average shortstops wouldn't make. Quite a few of McDonald's miracle stops are actually fairly routine plays for a shortstop like Cal Ripken (or Alex Gonzalez, for that matter - the best defensive shortstop in Blue Jays history.)

How many plays? I don't know, but he's having a terrific year with the glove. So I think about 15 Hits Saved (as opposed to an Average Shortstop - fewer if you compare him to Bobby Crosby, more if you compare him to Carlos Guillen) at this point in the season would be about right. If you add 15 singles (99% of the plays a shortstop makes prevents a single) to his hitting line, you get a .318 hitter - but one with no power at all and only league average defense at short.

Replacing him should NOT be one of JPs priorities this offseason. Locking him up for 2 years, 4 million should be.

Nah. Ancient baseball wisdom: "shake a tree, a dozen gloves will fall out."  You can always find a glove man who can't hit.

It is so wrong to critique this move [letting Catalanotto walk] in hindsight.

I wouldn't criticize it at all, and the Cat has had a disappointing, injury-marred year himself - but last October I actually said that unless you're certain that Adam Lind is ready right now "you need to sign Catalanotto for at least two more years, all the while knowing that you may very well be trading him for 75 cents on the dollar this July."

I get so few of these things right that they stick out in my memory.

"Iron Man" only comes up towards the end of the game, usually in like the 7th or 8th innings.

Exactly right - it's the music for his fourth AB. I don't remember all the others, but I think first time up it's Tupac and Dre, "California Love."

Wells reminds me a lot of Joe Carter at the plate.


Yes! Yes! It's not an echo! I've been saying that practically forever. Something else - Carter used to lead the league in foul popouts year after year after year, back when STATS used to actually publish that stuff. Ring any bells?

what I have seen with my own eyes this season

The problem is - we just don't see the other guys with our own eyes often enough. We simply can't make an informed judgement.
Mylegacy - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#173486) #

08's lineup will be almost the same as the post all-star 07 team. AND, that will lead us to the playoffs, or not, as the case may be.

Some WONDERFUL things have happened this year.

Starting pitching:

Marcum has become a legit starter. McGowan has better stuff than Dolly Parton. AJ is slowly rounding into shape physically - in 08 it all comes together for him. Doc has fought all manner of crap and like the fine cream he is he's risen to the top again. The Jay's were very high on Litsch's intangibles, they were right - this guy could be the number 5 guy if Janssen can't beat him out (Janssen can and will beat him out). 1 through 5 we've BIG LEAGUE serious pitchers. 08 looks good. 

Bullpen:

Ryan goes down. The world ends. The Accardo becomes the MAN. Janssen if not the number 5 guy next year will be a great set up man. Ryan will be back around the all-star break and ready to help the team's push for glory down the stretch. Tallet, Wolfe, Frasor, Downs and whomever comes forward next spring round out a quality bullpen.

The pitching on this team is contender quality, no question.

And some not so wonderful things...Offense and Defense:

I'm going to discuss them together because of - injuries.

Johnson, Wells, Rios. Reed is just coming back from back surgery. Next year his defense will be back and his spark will be back. Also next year Lind will be SERIOUSLY challenging him for at least a platoon status. Lind will be a GREAT hitter as he develops over the next few years. I PERSONALLY GUARANTEE IT! Defensively Lind proved that he could at least handle the position. Wells had his, "Gosh am I rich!" year. Next year he has his, "I'm gonna prove I deserve it!" year. I expect to see Wells have an MVP type year. Again, I guarantee it. Rios is very close to being a super star, 08 he continues to blossom.

Glaus, JMac, Hill, Overbay. Glaus gets his inserts (my wife's have made a huge difference to her, Glaus' will make a huge difference to him after a winter of rest on walking on them). Offensively and defensively Glaus has been a shadow of his former self. Next year he returns to his near 40+ homers and we're gonna love it. JMac is as good with the glove as he is bad with the bat. Our only TRULY lousy hitter catches better than any politician lies. And man that is sayin' a lot. Hill has just completed his first full year at 2nd. This guy is going to be a near gold-glover who hits near .300 with 15-homer pop. Thank you very much. Overbay....now listen up pilgrims...this guy broke his hand, next year when it's better he'll be pounding doubles to the fence like the old days. This guy is a sweet heart and a quality offensive and defensive player WHEN HEALTHY. 08 - he's healthy.

Zaun, Thigpen, Diaz. Zaun is on the down slope. However, he is a Pat Borders type, down and dirty, professional catcher and if he has one last hurrah in him he'll be worth it. Thigpen is a young catcher, catching is the hardest job in baseball, this kid can do everyting except throw like Pudge. He'll be there. Diaz is a Punch and Judy hitting machine. Expect a 300+ average, 60 rbi's and now that he seems to have learned game calling a good all round catcher. Lower in the minors lurk several serious catching prospects.

So there you have it your 2007 er I mean your 2008 Blue Jays. With ANY luck, and one of these years we've gotta get at least our fair share, we'll be a contender.

I guarantee it.

AWeb - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#173488) #
AJ is slowly rounding into shape physically - in 08 it all comes together for him.

I just have to comment on the above : c'mon, hasn't that been his story the last 3 years? Burnett is what he is, and counting on a full season from him would be foolhardy. Not that the Jays don't have a few other fill-ins ready to go, hopefully.

I like the optimism about McDonald, but the constant great looking plays he's been making mean either he's been getting lucky to have lots of balls hit just at the edge of his range this half (my guess), or that his range is poor, making the great-looking plays necessary (call it the Jeter condition). Like outfielders robbing homeruns, it takes a very precise confluence of events to allow for a great play in the hole at short, with the most important one being a slow runner. No one throws out Ichiro from their knees in the hole.

The Jays in 2008 : if they do return with basically the same team, I agree it could work out well, if everyone just has a personally average year (Wells, Overbay, Thomas, Glaus, Johnson/Lind). But I don't think that's particularly likely. A slightly above average lineup appears to be the best-case scenario, barring great seasons from 3-4 of those guys (or Rios turning it up another notch). Will the pitching be as good next year? That's never a sure thing.
Paul D - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#173490) #

I will continue to argue with every single person on this board and agree with JP that you can hide a fantastic defensive SS in the #9 spot, as long as the rest of your team is hitting.

My position is that the current Blue Jays aren't the 92/93 Jays, or the Red Sox.   The Jays don't have an Ortiz or Ramirez in the lineup.  They can't afford to get nothing from the shortstop position, and if they go into next year with the same team, they will not do any better than this year (+/- 5 wins).  I think we've just about exhausted the JMac discussion though.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#173492) #
That's fair, Paul. Opinions are opinions - we can agree to disagree. I think they can afford to get "nothing from the shortstop position", and go into next year with the same team, and expect to do better than 5 more wins. Based on what? Returns to career norms from Wells, Overbay, and Glaus, and full seasons from a productive LF platoon and Zaun. That's where the offense needs to come from, not shortstop. And having clowns like Zambrano, Ohka, Phillips, and Clayton for FAR too long didn't help either, but provide a positive outlook for 2008 when we will (hopefully!) not feel the need to field crappy players just because they are over 30.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#173493) #

McGowan has better stuff than Dolly Parton.

I take this to mean his arsenal includes legitimately awe-inspiring curves?

ahitisahit - Thursday, August 23 2007 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#173496) #

I also take offense to the word turkey.  Battersbox is a site for civilized baseball discussion, if a rookie learning on the job is a turkey then those comments should go back to a bulletin board and you with them.

Does turkey have a different meaning in Upper Canada? I could find someone in Charlottetown who could give signs and not let the entire stadium know what pitch was coming. Sorry if that word offends you.

Baseball is 90% mental, and I don't think a guy like McGowan, who has always had the stuff but not the mental toughness, needs any problems at all when he takes the mound. A soild season in the bigs could be exactly what he needs to flourish in the future.

Chuck - Friday, August 24 2007 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#173502) #

John McDonald-lifetime:  240BA, 279OBP, 315SLG .972 fielding %age (including games at 2B )
Mark Belanger-lifetime: 228BA, 300OBP, 280SLG .977 fielding %age

The fielding percentages can safely be ignored because they offer up very little information in that they don't talk about range, only propensity to err. But I presume your unspoken position is that if Belanger was good enough for Earl Weaver, then a similar-hitting McDonald should be good enough for the Blue Jays.

Belanger was a weak hitter, no question, but some context is required. He played in a different era, during a period where offense was quite suppressed compared to today's game. So, despite similar raw numbers, Belanger's lifetime OPS+ of 68 is much better than McDonald's 56, and that includes his decline phase from age 33 to 37 (McDonald, just 32, figures to see his lifetime OPS+ drop even further as he heads into his mid 30's). Also, Belanger did reward Weaver with three big seasons with OPS+'s of 100, 97 and 95. McDonald peaked at 75. This season, his OPS+ is currently 60.

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