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Count me among those that don't like a Rolen for Glaus swap.

Apparently this is just a straight up swap of Rolen for Glaus, except that Glaus agreed to exercise his 2009 player option.

My initial reaction is the Jays are trading for the:

Worse player, coming from the inferior league
Older player
Player with the more significant injury history (I'll take the foot problem over the shoulder problem)
Player with the longer contract

And on top of all of that, the Cardinals are essentially dumping Rolen because he can't get along with LaRussa. Then the Cardinals got a concession from Glaus to make the deal (whether that's a good idea is another issue).

This deal only makes sense if one thinks that Rolen can overcome his shoulder problems. I'm skeptical about that. After a strong 2006 you'd think he'd be pretty healthy coming into 2007 and yet he slugged under .400 every month except July and then had surgery again.

Glaus is obviously no Cal Ripken, and it was pretty painful to watch him move, but I would think a foot problem is a better problem to have than a problem that's going to impact your strength.

Essentially this is a challenge trade.... between training staffs. We can speculate all we want about whether Glaus or Rolen is a better bet going forward, but unless you're a Dr and have looked at both of them it'd be pretty tough to make an informed opinion on that. But if I were to take a stab at it I'd go with Glaus with the bonus being that he has at least one less year on his contract.

Posted by Pistol on Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:00 AM EST.

Rolen Downhill | 92 comments | Create New Account

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Gerry - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 09:42 AM EST (#178735) #

Pistol, I think there is a hidden story here. There have been rumblings for a while now that the Jays have been unhappy with Glaus. We don't know why exactly but I am still hoping Jeff Blair will have the goods tomorrow.

Other than that it's a gamble on which player is healthier for the next two years.

John Northey - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 09:59 AM EST (#178736) #

The injuries are by far the top issue.

Glaus: Foot issue - plantar faciaitis - which is painful and could easily be recurring as, being an athlete, he will continue doing the type of work that caused it in the first place although with better shoes & treatment to help the pain.

Rolen: Left shoulder issues. Shouldn't affect his fielding too much as he throws with his right arm. Will affect his power though. So, if defensive improvement was the Jays #1 issue then mission accomplished. However, his offense will be the big quesiton.

In StLouis (http://www.stltoday.com/sports) they are running a poll where it is 51% in favour, 8% against and 41% choosing "Not sure: Is either player completely healthy?" from 309 people so far. I suspect it is largely due to the LaRussa/Rolen feud that has gone on far too long down there. However, that feud could be a plus for us as Rolen will be 'motivated' big time in '08 ala Clemens in '97 to prove his old team wrong. Lets hope at least :)

Parker - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 10:34 AM EST (#178737) #

I think the key to this trade is the upgrade in defensive range at 3B. Rolen is going to make Eckstein look like a much better shortstop, and when McDonald comes in as a defensive sub, opposing lineups might as well be hitting grounders into a 200 foot-wide Hoover vacuum behind second base.

Now the Jays need only to trade for Fausto Carmona and all the pieces will be in place.

Spifficus - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 10:44 AM EST (#178738) #

After a strong 2006 you'd think he'd be pretty healthy coming into 2007 and yet he slugged under .400 every month except July and then had surgery again

Actually, it was an issue in the '06 playoffs, and I believe it was injured / reinjured at some point in the second half. He must have elected to try and rehab it. When that didn't work, he went back under the knife. Somewhat similar to Glaus' shoulder issues in '03 / '04...

Anyway, I like this trade... huge risk, but a healthy Rolen is an 8-10 win player whereas Glaus is more of a 6-8 sort. That Rolen's defensive value should be amplified on this staff just makes this trade all the more interesting...

Dave Till - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 10:53 AM EST (#178739) #

You have to give J.P. credit for having big brass ones - not many GMs are willing to make a challenge trade. If Glaus goes on to have a good year in St. Louis, and Rolen crashes and burns, J.P. will look really bad.

As for the merits of the trade: a lot depends on how healthy everybody is, of course. But the 2007 Jays had too many of the same type of hitter - right-handed power hitters who strike out a lot. Glaus, in particular, occupies the same ecological niche as Frank Thomas; you don't really need both of them. Rolen strikes out less and runs more, so he adds balance to the lineup.

Other potential positives (some of which have been mentioned already): Rolen may have a point to prove, he's better defensively, and he and Eckstein already know each other.

Geoff - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 11:09 AM EST (#178740) #

and he and Eckstein already know each other.

I was waiting for this one to come up. How does Eckstein not remember Troy Glaus? The guy who was the MVP credited on David's other World Series ring.

greenfrog - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 11:28 AM EST (#178743) #

I think the trade helps the Jays if Rolen is healthy and can still hit with power, for these reasons:

- Although Rolen is a year or two older, Glaus has looked old over the last couple of years--the recurring injuries (and not just the foot), slow running, lack of defensive range, predictable slumps (admittedly interspersed with hot streaks) and missed playing time

- His superior defense gives the Jays a very good defensive team, assuming the team stays mostly healthy in 2008

- Rolen is under contract for a few years, giving Kevin Ahrens or other 3B prospect time to develop (the Jays have no legit 3B prospects in the high minors, unless you consider Sergio Santos a legit prospect). For the Jays, Glaus presented a no-win situation: if he performed well in 2008, he would almost certainly leave via free agency. If he had a subpar year and more injuries, the Jays would be responsible for his 2009 player option

- Injuries notwithstanding, Rolen has excellent career offensive numbers: 283/372/507

It's a gamble, no question. If his 2007 performance is a harbinger of Rolen's future, the Jays will regret the trade. But I think it's a worthwhile risk.

timsevs - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 11:49 AM EST (#178744) #

What a fascinating trade. I'm cautiously for it, if Rolen is healthy I think he is a superior player. Previous to his shoulder problems he was very reliable, and that was the result of an on-field collision, not wear and tear (In some ways I am more worried about Vernon's shoulder issues - which have never really been explained / resolved).

I think there are a number of problems with Glaus. People have already mentioned his slowness as a runner which impacts his fielding (How long can he stay at 3B?). Also plantar fasciitis is a horrible condition that often cannot truly be cured. The one thing that nobody has mentioned is the steroids rumour. Steroids can lead to niggling injuries and it is conceivable that JP believes that Glaus will deteriorate physically over the next 1-2 years. Thus poor production, and poor compensation when he goes in FA. He is not renowned as a hard worker (I think), and his physique certainly often looks a little on the 'heavy' side.

VBF - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 12:13 PM EST (#178746) #

This reminds of the Podsednik/Lee trade in 2005, if only for the "huh?" factor. Obviously a homer, I believe that Glaus even with his foot problems, as long as that's the only injury, is one of the best hitters on the team. He gets on base, and to be honest, I always thought he played a very sure footed third base, and don't really remember too many plays where I'd be cursing his defence.

But, because of the oddity of this move, I'd like to believe that there is some sort of undetected factor, and that we'll all be heralding this move as one of the best trades in Jays history, after a World Series win, as the White Sox did in 2005.

Mylegacy - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 01:12 PM EST (#178750) #

Gutsy trade - no question.

Here's why JP and I made it (OK, mostly JP):

Glaus: Old body, very old body. His foot injury in chronic, it may improve from time to time but it'll never get better. Can't even offer at a bunt these days. Is the juice slowly breaking down the connecting tissue? Glaus can't hit righties - mind you RHPers are still scared of him BUT he can't hit them. Last year JP and I were furious at the many lost at bats as he never looked comfortable against righties. In 2007, while both were injured, he was out OPSd against righties by Rolen 770 to 728.

Rolen: Bum shoulder? Actually the link provided in the other thread by RyanDay said he had to get "scar tissue" cleaned up. There was no new injury. The Doc's said he'd be 100% for spring. Will Glaus EVER be 100% - even for a day? For a right handed hitter Rolen has excellent stats aginst righties, career stats of 284/361/504 OPS 865. Even last year he out OPSd Glaus 770 to 728. Defensively, Rolen is a near gold glove.

Conclusion: Burnett has finally come back from his "scar tissue" issue and Rolen will too. Glaus will never be "100% healed." Having said all that, I still love Troy, the way he adjusted his uni between pitches, the way he stared off into the ether to get ready to hit, the way he took walks and mostly the way he'd hit a "pop-up" to just over SS that would end up in the third deck in left field. Troy, been good to know you. Good luck with the heathens.

Rolen, welcome to the greatest city on earth, with the greatest fans, the greatest team and the greatest blog - namely DaBox.

Ryan Day - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 02:19 PM EST (#178754) #

Worse player, coming from the inferior league
Player with the more significant injury history (I'll take the foot problem over the shoulder problem)

These are effectively the same thing. If both players are healthy, they're fairly similar, with Rolen being a much better defender. And Glaus has almost the same injury history - had shoulder problems in 03 and 04, and had surgery in 04, and recovered his power stroke pretty nicely. Glaus' injury was to his throwing shoulder, too, while Rolen's was not.

Rickster - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 02:36 PM EST (#178755) #

Great trade, assuming Rolen is 80% healthy. The Jays appear to have made a lateral move when looking at total stats, but they've actually been able to address their single biggest weakness on offence (hitting against RHP) at a marginal cost to their biggest strength on offence (hitting against LHP). Last year the team went 269/365/484 vs LHP and 248/315/400 vs RHP. That is a difference of 134 points of OPS. Considering 75% of plate appearances come vs RHP, a more balanced line-up with respect to splits would go a long way towards more wins.

Rolen has outpaced Glaus in OPS vs RHP by 49 points (865 to 816) over their careers, and outdid him by 116 points in 2006 (their last healthy seasons) (921 to 805).

Add in the cost savings you get from Rolen's contract vs the going rate for a free agent 3B in 2009 and 2010 and this trade looks even better. Nice job by JP.

Denoit - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 03:05 PM EST (#178756) #

Assuming both players are 100% healthy,Toronto is recieving the better player in my opinion. Love the defensive upgrade, plus Rolens bat is not too shabby either.

HollywoodHartman - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 03:15 PM EST (#178758) #

Isn't the injury that Rolen is coming off of very similar to the injury Glaus sustained in the '04 season? If so, Glaus has come back rather nicely. Can someone confirm if the injuries are similar, because all I recall was concerns about Glaus' shoulder when the Jays acquired him.

Leigh - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 03:41 PM EST (#178760) #

Defense is now the apparent vanguard of sabermetrics - Josh Byrnes knew it two years ago and JP is coming around.

As a stubborn adherent to the now stale second-wave sabermetrics (OBP is king and SLG is prince!) I still have a soft-spot for the Three True Outcomes types, so the trade saddens me. Like Glaus, I am a plodder - agility and grace are the future, and I too will reluctantly move forward (albeit very slowly).

HollywoodHartman - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:21 PM EST (#178763) #

A poster on Viva El Birdos (A well respected Cards blog) made an interesting point:

"Glaus nailed on park adjustment

Running the park adjusted numbers on 2008 ZIPS projections for Glaus, his numbers get nailed by moving from a right handed hitting friendly park in Toronto to a park in St Louis that is not exactly right handed hitting friendly. I have Glaus losing...

16 points in batting average
9 points in OBP%
62 points of SLG%

vr, Xei"

I don't believe that this takes league switch into account but for the time being lets skip that (I know, I know. I can't just do that but I don't know how to calculate them). Can one assume a similar upswing in Rolen's stats?

Mike Green - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:32 PM EST (#178764) #

Scott Rolen's most comparable player so far is probably Ron Santo. Notwithstanding that, it may be that Rolen has a better chance of being an adequate third baseman for 3 years than Glaus does, as Glaus' mobility issues may force a move to first or DH. It is true that having an adequate third baseman under contract for 3 years will fill an organizational need.

Axil - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:36 PM EST (#178765) #

This trade though significant is ho-hum relevant to the roster needs. The Jays may be able to get by with Sal Fasano as a backup but there is not way they can survive with their pitching staff. When injuries strike who are the depth pitchers? If the Jays want to be succesful this year I firmly believe they need to acquire themselves another pitcher and catcher and I have my eyes on Mike Lieberthal and one of Kris Benson/Jason Jennings/Tony Armas Jr..

Ryan Day - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:49 PM EST (#178766) #

one of Kris Benson/Jason Jennings/Tony Armas Jr

If any of those guys ends up playing a significant role for the 2008 Jays, the season is pretty much toast anyway. I mean, Tony Armas? The guy who had an OPS+ of 93 in 2004, and then got worse?

The Jays have Halladay/Burnett/McGowan/Marcum for sure. They've got Litsch and Janssen available for the last spot, possibly Brian Wolfe. Chacin might be healthy (though I'm not betting on it). Josh Banks is available for emergencies. Frankly, I think the Jays made a mistake letting Ty Taubenheim go - not a star, probably, but a useful fill-in.

But I'd give a rotation spot to Ricky Romero before I gave one to Tony Armas. Yuck.

Excalabur - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:53 PM EST (#178768) #

You have to differentiate sabrmetrics from GMing.

It's true that a bunch of reasearch is being done at the moment on defence and how it can be measured and how much it matters.

But as a GM, you're interested in dollars/win, basically. For a while there, OBP was "cheap". Then the old guys caught on that OBP was a good thing, and so the smart GMs have to find something else to get their wins from on the cheap. Defence seems to be it, at the moment, though the research mentioned above helps understand how much defence is worth.

That's not to say that TTO-type players aren't still valued: look at Cust as an example thereof. Guy can't do most things, but he can smash the ball pretty good.

Denoit - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 05:02 PM EST (#178770) #

Worse player, coming from the inferior league

Rolen, 32 -- .283 AVG, .372 OBP, .507 SLG, 28 HR and 109 RBI per 162 games

Glaus, 31 -- .254 AVG, .358 OBP, .500 SLG, 36 HR and 101 RBI per 162 games

Umm...please explain?? Rolen appears to be the better player this is not even taking in to acount his Defense. Even if his numbers drop on the move to the American league (wich I dont think is as big of deal as some people make it out to be Ex. Overbay's career year after the switch) Rolen has better numbers period.

melondough - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 05:28 PM EST (#178772) #

Dayn Perry ranks the Jays defense as the best in baseball. Guess who Perry ranks as having the best Lineup, best Rotation, best Bullpen, best Defense, best Bench?

Click on the link to below to find out.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7670694

Also, it appears Glaus is scheduled to have his physical on Monday morning. Has anyone seen definitively when Rolen is scheduled to have his done? Also, I wonder if Glaus is scheduled to go first because his injury may be more serious?

Chuck - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 05:36 PM EST (#178773) #

Assuming both players are 100% healthy

... the Cardinals ask for a lot more for Rolen than Troy Glaus.

SheldonL - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 05:55 PM EST (#178774) #

As has been mentioned, one need not be a doctor to understand to see the constant hobbling and pain that Glaus went through last year. We know that plantar fasciitis was a significant reason for this and we've seen it bother him in his first year in the T-dot as well(although not to the extent that it bothered him last year). In Toronto, he would have had to have been moved to the DH spot in '09 which is terrible because Thomas occupies the spot this year... thereby rendering Glaus' potent bat useless in '08. That stupidity(using its exact definition: that which is useless) would be compounded in '09 if Thomas reaches the required AB's to have his '09 option picked up(aside: which would be great if Thomas provides us with an excellent season this year). So all in all, we would have wasted $24mil on a guy who is essentially useless, his power notwithstanding.
All those who think Glaus wouldn't pick up his option are silly because Glaus' condition for the Arizona-TO trade was to change the '09 option from a "team option" to a "player option". Furthermore, I believe that it was his condition and not the Cards' as reported that the option be picked up. A player coming off an injury-plagued season will not turn down guaranteed money.

Now to Rolen. Even with the injured shoulder, his defense is hell-bent - it's awesome!
As for his bat, there's certainly risk involved here but when compared to the injury risk of Glaus', I'd choose Rolen albeit I'd choose him by a hair!
When both are healthy, I think Rolen is the better hitter. Glaus may have more power; he's a lock for 40 homers when healthy. He would put up a line of .254avg, 30 doubles, 40 homers, 85 walks, .360 OBP, .520 slug%.
Meanwhile Rolen(when healthy) can provide a line of .290 avg, 45 doubles, 30 homers, 60-ish(hard to figure out; I picked a realistic figure) walks, .375 OBP, .520 slug %.

I think the OBP and the more extra base hits show that Rolen is the superior hitter...and we've already noted the defense is sparkling. $33 mil over 3 years is quite a risk but I think it barely (by a hair) trumps the $24 mil potential of "stupidity".

Post-script: I'd like to ask for opinions: what's better a homerun or a double?
I have always held that the homers are more debilitating and better but this past season, I've changed my mind. I think doubles are better. I'd be curious to hear Bill James' opinion.
Basically, a double is better because it the continues the slaughter in that it keeps a runner in scoring position for the next hitter whereas the post-homerun hitter starts fresh like a leadoff guy. This can have a more significant effect on the opposing pitcher who is still stuck in a prickly situation; whereas a homerun gives him the opportunity to start fresh.
In addition, a double allows for "taking extra bases" in terms of base running. A guy on first could score on a double and the defense's prerogative to thrown home could move the hitter up to third on a throw home.
Thoughts?

Jordan - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 06:06 PM EST (#178776) #

On the whole, I like the deal. It shouldn't be confused as the move that puts the team over the top -- if everything breaks right, it gives the Jays another 3-5 wins' worth of production, and while that's not bad at all, it's not going to put the Jays in the playoffs all by itself. But there are three things that stand out for me in its favour.

1. My sense for several months now has been that Troy Glaus is about to walk off a cliff. Something's not right there: watching him play, even when he wasn't hurting, he looked like a guy in his mid-30s -- creaky, careful, slow. When he was injured, it was hard to watch -- and what made it worse was that every time he ran hard to first base or came chugging full speed around third, you held your breath hoping his body would hold up. Glaus will always be a dead .250 hitter who walks 80 times a full season, but his slugging percentage has dropped four straight years now (.575/.522/.513/.473), and his OPS+ has declined along with it. His three most similar players at BB-Ref are Dean Palmer, Eric Chavez and Howard Johnson. Palmer was washed up at 32, Chavez hasn't been a star since he was 26, and Johnson was finished at 31. Glaus will turn 32 in August. Jeff Blair, who rarely blows smoke, has been muttering for some time about how the Jays were eager to find someone to take Glaus off their hands, though he'd never say why. There may be PED involvement or there may not; either way, all the alarm bells are going off. I'm very happy to see Troy Glaus starting 2008 in another team's uniform.

2. Rolen is a risk, obviously: if he hits .265/.299/.398 for Toronto while soaking up a guaranteed $11M a season for three years, then yes, acquiring him was a disaster. But that's pretty much the only risk with Rolen, that the cleanup surgery failed or that his offensive skills were left on the operating table, and it's not a huge one; as has been stated before, this was a repair of his shoulder, not a renovation. His last injury-free season, 2006, produced a 126+ OPS, which happens to be his career average OPS+ too. A healthy Rolen -- and I think the odds are in favour of that, not against it - should be right in that ballpark again. A 126+ OPS, by the way, would've ranked second on the Jays last year behind Matt Stairs, ahead of Frank Thomas, Alex Rios and Glaus.

3. On top of that, there's his defence, which is sensational by virtually any statistcial or anecdotal measure. I'm with Leigh that the Jays have decided to make defence the core of their staretgy, and if so, I like it. An infield of Rolen, McDonald, Hill and Overbay, with an outfield of Johnson, Wells and Rios, is breathtaking, and makes a pretty good pitching staff very, very good. Even on the days that Ecj=kstein, Lind or Stairs take the field, this is still one of the best defences in the game. Glaus was a smudged copy of Frank Thomas, a redundancy; Rolen fits what I think this team is trying to do.

I have no doubt that JP has spent months trying to work that 3B swap with the Dodgers, but apaprently even Ned Coletti's not that dim. My belief is that the Jays saw an opening in St. Louis, with the LaRussa feud and Rolen's low trade value, and pulled the trigger. There is risk, absolutely. But the Jays have no chance -- none -- of making the playoffs if they don't take some reasonable, calculated risks with their roster. Rolen is a true X factor -- he could go up big or go down big -- but X factors are critical to this team's chances in 2008. I've been taking shots at JP for well over a year now, but I can say I'm with him on this one.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 06:59 PM EST (#178778) #

and one of Kris Benson/Jason Jennings/Tony Armas Jr.

Jason Jennings, a native of Dallas, is apparently about to sign with the Rangers. He might well end up in their rotation if he does.

Lefty - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 07:42 PM EST (#178779) #

Great comments from a number of posters stacking this deal up.

I was a big fan of Troy Glaus since his AAA days. I was happy as a clam when Ricciardi went out and landed him.

But I'm afraid the luster was rubbed off when the steroids issue came out last September.

I'm happy as a clam to see the tail end of him now.

Mike T - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:00 PM EST (#178780) #

new Blair article up
is he saying St.Louis will send 4 million the Jays way? I got confused a bit, but that's what is sounded like.
http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080113.blair14/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

greenfrog - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:05 PM EST (#178781) #

Anyone besides me wondering whether how likely both players are to pass their physicals?

FranklyScarlet - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:30 PM EST (#178783) #

EVERYONE likes this trade in Toronto.
Now watch for another one........out of AZ, perhaps?

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:36 PM EST (#178784) #

I suspect that this is only the first step in a 2 step trade involving Rolen, who is owed $33 million despite being largely unable to swing a bat for much of the past three years.

The second, unfortunately, likely comes 8-24 months from now, when Rolen is dealt, along with millions of dollars to pay his salary, a la Corey Koskie, for an unimportant minor leaguer. I suspect that many who are cheering this move will be cheering that one as well.

Wildrose - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:40 PM EST (#178785) #

Here's the proper Blair link.

Ryan Day - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 10:08 PM EST (#178788) #

The second, unfortunately, likely comes 8-24 months from now, when Rolen is dealt, along with millions of dollars to pay his salary, a la Corey Koskie, for an unimportant minor leaguer. I suspect that many who are cheering this move will be cheering that one as well.

Did anyone cheer the Koskie trade? It was, at best, regarded as a salary dump and necessary evil.

Though I might cheer it in hindsight, since Koskie played all of 76 games for the Brewers, and Brian Wolfe is looking like a promising arm.

Rickster - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 10:15 PM EST (#178789) #

In Toronto, [Glaus] would have had to have been moved to the DH spot in '09 which is terrible because Thomas occupies the spot this year... thereby rendering Glaus' potent bat useless in '08.

So who would have played 3B under this scenario?

subculture - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 11:58 PM EST (#178791) #

My inner demons were 60-40 in favour of the deal before I read about the 3-4 million coming towards the Jays. Now I'm solidly in favour.... one of my peeves about JP was how he seemed to be stuck always including money with players (koskie, hinske... koch, in different scenario). Now I'm glad he realizes it can go both ways...

Now there's less of a need to trade Frank Thomas, but I'd still like to see that DH spot used to platoon Stairs/Lind more frequently... and give Rolen and Wells regular breaks from playing defense daily.

melondough - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 12:20 AM EST (#178793) #

So, it appears JP is getting Ted $3 million net out of this deal. If JP was told to go and spend that money to make the team better ASAP what do you think he should do? Is there a free agent out there still worth considering or does this make it more likely they could make a trade or have a better shot at signing a high profile young man via the draft?

jgadfly - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 02:06 AM EST (#178795) #

So, it appears JP is getting Ted $3 million net out of this deal. ... isn't that $3M. the difference between what both teams have budgeted for Glaus' salary and Rolens' salary over the next two seasons... ie. already spent money...

China fan - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 06:09 AM EST (#178798) #

Just to make matters even more confusing, an article in the Star today claims that the Jays (not the Cards) are paying the additional cash. According to the Star, the Jays are sending $1.8-million to the Cards. (A day earlier, the Star had reported that the Cards were sending cash to the Jays. And over on MLB.com, Jordan Bastian is reporting that no cash is expected to change hands at all.) So, who knows? Sounds like nobody should count on a big windfall of cash for the Jays just yet, if at all.
Link to the latest Star story: http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/293647

China fan - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 07:49 AM EST (#178799) #

Further explanation comes from today's Globe, which suggests that the Cards are paying for the $4-million bonus that Rolen was supposed to receive in the final year of his contract. If true, this would make some logical sense, and again it suggests that the Jays are not receiving any kind of cash windfall here. If I'm understanding everything correctly, the Jays are paying the $33-million in salary that Rolen is receiving over the next three years, with the Cards paying the $4-million bonus (and possibly the Jays are refunding $1.8-million of this $4-million payment by the Cards, if the Star's story is correct). So, again, this would appear to be a future payment by the Cards, partially offset by a refund from the Jays, and it would certainly not provide any immediate cash for the Jays to run out and spend on the free-agent market today.

Link to the Globe story: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080114.JAYS14//TPStory/Sports

melondough - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 09:06 AM EST (#178800) #

I thought this tells us all we need to know:

From Associated Press Sept 27, 2002:

Manager Tony La Russa has been every bit as impressed with Rolen's defensive prowess. He considers Rolen, who made dazzling plays for the first and last out of the Cardinals' division-clinching victory a week ago, the best third baseman he's ever seen.

"I told him once, my happiest day would be if there's a game where 27 groundballs get to third base,'' La Russa said. "The way he plays that position, the way he runs the bases, the way he takes his at-bats, he is a complete player.''

Source: http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/0925/1436441.html

Glaus could never be such a complete player even if he returned to health. The upside of obtaining Rolen is much higher than retaining Glaus. Great calculated risk I think.

parrot11 - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 09:52 AM EST (#178803) #

So does JP get to use the injury excuse again this season? I'm with Pistol on this move. It makes very little sense as a 1-for-1 move and that $3-44M is just token change. The Jays paid twice that amount for Koskie's trade. It's a bad deal with a huge risk and very tiny reward. JP's been taken on this one. Of course, most people will only realize by mid-season of this and by then the same people will be saying why did the Jays trade for this guy. Hope I'm wrong.

Wildrose - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:18 AM EST (#178804) #

Glaus could never be such a complete player even if he returned to health. The upside of obtaining Rolen is much higher than retaining Glaus. Great calculated risk I think.

I concur. A healthy Rolen, given age, a harder league, some injury residue would produce about 23-25 batting runs over the course of 150 games. A healthy Glaus projects to about 15-18 runs above the average A.L. hitter. Defensively the gap is much more pronounced. From 2003-2007 UZR Rolen was + 16 , Glaus -9 per 150 games. The Fielding Bible from 2003-2007 has Rolen at +13 runs per 150 games, Glaus about league average. Combine the 2 systems and you have Rolen at +14.5 and Glaus at -4.5 over a typical season.

Basically a healthy Rolen is about 25 runs better than Glaus, given that your paying them essentially the same money per season this may represent a significant upgrade for the team. As Blair says this is a battle of MRI'S, who will be the healthier player? Absolutely an element of risk abounds in this trade for both teams, but the local nine given their circumstance, need to push the envelope to a much higher degree. I will point out that somewhat ironically Glaus ,circa 2003/2004 had his own shoulder woes, which he did recover from, so here's hoping Rolen does the same.

jmoney - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:20 AM EST (#178805) #

I like the trade.

I love Rolen's defense and believe it will help compensate for Eckstein's lack of mobility over J-Mac. (While putting up better offense then J-Mac could ever dream of)

Seems both teams know they're getting players with health problems and its up the medical staffs to keep them going. At the end of the day, I think Rolen's much better defense and ability to hit righties will be more valuable to the Jays then Glaus' contribution. If Rolen's bat returns to form. This trade is a coup for the Jays.

Wildrose - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:23 AM EST (#178806) #

If Scott Rolen could play an entire season, he�d be one of the greatest 3B of all time. I take some of that back � Scott Rolen already is one of the best of all-time, and closing in on HOF stats. He�s the best defensive 3B in at least 20 years, and may well lay claim to the greatest ever. However, he cannot seem to play a full season, and thus finds himself short of another Gold Glove. Okay, Rolen has won seven of the last ten, but he was better than the recipient in two of the three seasons he didn�t win.

Chris Dial puts Rolen's glove in historical perspective.

lexomatic - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:35 AM EST (#178807) #

I like this trade but am cautiously optimistic. While I think that losing Glaus' bat will hurt, I don't expect him to be healthy enough for it to be noticeable (in terms of presence in the lineup or his injuries affecting him while there). I also expect Rolen, even if not at full health, to be a massive defensive upgrade. I don't understand the extreme spectrum of responses- positives not acknowledging the GREAT risk of Rolen being the positional equivalent of JMac at 3b, and negatives not acknowledging the potential upside of this deal (Rolen being HOF caliber defensively and more well-rounded offensively).

I am more in favor of this deal with money being thrown in.

Think about this for a moment: would you rather have

Glaus 110 gp 20HR 60 RBIs .250 bad defense and Scutaro 50GP 2 HR
or
Rolen 140 gp gold glove defense with .270 40 2b 13 hrs?
I'm at work so I don't have time to mock up OBP/SLG #s and calculate more thoroughly, but it gets across the basics of my point. I think that even an unhealthy Rolen; as long as he's in the field most of the time will be more valuable than Glaus (even if his bat returns closer to form, which I don't expect) who is in the lineup only 2/3 of the time because the backup is replacement level? below? When you take into consideration the bat. Rolen has the potential of being above league average because of his defense, even if his offense is slightly below.

ayjackson - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:40 AM EST (#178808) #

In Toronto, he (Glaus) would have had to have been moved to the DH spot in '09 which is terrible because Thomas occupies the spot this year

Just a reminder that Thomas needs only about 350 PA to have his 2009 contract vest. It's likely that Stairs and Thomas will be sharing the DH duties in 2009 (if not earlier).

Wildrose - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:41 AM EST (#178809) #

"Love the challenge trade! Both third basemen are injury concerns. Rolen's a bit better when completely healthy but also has the lower chance of being completely healthy. I think the risk/reward scenarios actually work out pretty well for both teams - the Blue Jays are against very tough competition and have some heavy groundballers, so they want the more fielding oriented guy with the biggest payoff, since they're not going to slip into the playoffs with 88 wins anytime soon and the Cardinals, against rather weak competition, would rather have the safer bet."

Szymborkski applies the same rationale as many do to this trade.

AWeb - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:59 AM EST (#178811) #

This trade seems to make sense for both sides. The Cardinals get rid of a player who wasn't getting along with the entrenched manager, and the Jays get rid of a player who was breaking down on the turf. The Cardinals, playing in a weak division (until shown otherwise, NL Central defenders), upgrade from last year's Scott Rolen with Glaus, who despite his injuries has produced very consistently in the last few years. The 2008 Cardinals improve at thrid base.

The Jays get exactly the type of player they seem to be focusing on, a top-tier defensive guy, who might also have a great hitting year, and has often in the past. He might also stink at the plate if he can't recover, not all 32 year old former stars make it back even if surgeries go well. The Jays need to have players like this (Wells being another similar guy going into 2008); they can't compile a team on their budget right now that looks sure to win 95 games like the Red Sox and Yankees. But what they have managed to do make the upside of the team better. This comes with a tradeoff of a bigger downside, but rather than making another move to maximize predictability, JP has opted for a move that I see as raising the chances for the playoffs, if not the overall "average" season win total for the team. Good for him.

The Jays in 2008: if pitching/defense can stay at/near the same level as 2007, the season hinges on no unexpected collapses (Thomas, Stairs, Rios, Hill), and comeback seasons from at least two of: Wells, Rolen, Overbay, Johnson. If each of these players performs at career average levels, the Jays become good offensive team again. If three have better than average seasons (and nothing else gets worse), the Jays could be the best team in the league with their pitching. Yes, it's the unbridled optimism of January!

ayjackson - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 12:00 PM EST (#178813) #

Are we set now? Or do we bring in a catcher?

Overbay
Hill
Eckstein
Rolen
Zaun
Johnson
Wells
Rios
Thomas
Stairs
Thigpen
MacDonald
Scutaro

Starters:

Halladay
Burnett
McGowan
Marcum
Janssen

Bullpen:

Accardo
Ryan
Frasor
Downs
League
Tallet
Wolfe

PeterG - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 12:42 PM EST (#178815) #

I like the deal. Glaus IMO was a black hole on offense for the most part. Oh yes, he hit the odd home run, a few doubles and he did give his all - his swing is full of holes. My son plays ball at a high level and I wouldn't even allow him to watch Glaus bat unless it's to illustrate how not to approach an AB or how not(uppercut) to swing. Rolen brings with him baggage and risk but it is a necessary risk IMO. With Glaus, I envisioned an almost hopeless situation. Now, at least there is hope.

My closing 2 cents - health may well determine who comes out best,but given a saw off on this issue, Rolen is much the better player.

Glevin - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 12:48 PM EST (#178816) #

"I thought this tells us all we need to know:

From Associated Press Sept 27, 2002:

Notice the date...2002. That's over 5 years ago now. Rolen is still a very good defender, but he is not at that level anymore. Same with the people who have mentioned his speed. He's not as slow as Glaus, but Rolen is not fast. he is 17 for 29 in SB over the last four years and he moves like an oft-injured 3Bman. Glaus was much, much better than Rolen was last year. Basically, the trade is 2 years of Glaus at $24 million for 3 years of Rolen at $36 and I think Rolen's chances of being worth anywhere near $12 million in the final year are basically nill. I just don't get it. At best, it's a lateral move. The Jays have pressing needs

HollywoodHartman - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 01:16 PM EST (#178818) #

"Are we set now? Or do we bring in a catcher?

Overbay
Hill
Eckstein
Rolen
Zaun
Johnson
Wells
Rios
Thomas
Stairs
Thigpen
MacDonald
Scutaro

Starters:

Halladay
Burnett
McGowan
Marcum
Janssen

Bullpen:

Accardo
Ryan
Frasor
Downs
League
Tallet
Wolfe"

Just a couple minor issues with that roster. I'd assume Litsch is going to get a shot at the rotation and push Janssen to the pen, and League to AAA. The other problem comes in the form of Rule V pick Randy Wells who seems to have no role on this team. I must say though, I think the team would be in a much better position if we only carried 11 pitchers and Lind was on the bench.

R Billie - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 01:19 PM EST (#178819) #

3B would have become a pressing need after 2008 if Glaus opted out. So even if it turns out to be lateral or worse, at the Jays have someone at third thru 2010 when all of the other big contracts start expiring.

Whether Rolen actually produces with the bat (by far the biggest concern) is going to decide the success of the deal but the rationale behind it (improved defence, large but guaranteed and manageable contract) is fairly cut and dried.

HollywoodHartman - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 01:24 PM EST (#178820) #

According to Rosenthal both players have passed their physicals and the deal should be announced soon.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7665630

Does the fact that he was checked out by the doctors give anyone more confidence about Rolen's health?

R Billie - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 01:42 PM EST (#178821) #

I think unless these guys were catatonic during their physicals, the deal was going through.

Generally speaking, most trades and major signings happen with physicals attached. And very seldom do the physicals fail. Passing a physical to me isn't a great predictor of health or production. But at least we know we're not getting a guy who is DOA.

SheldonL - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 01:42 PM EST (#178822) #

I like Ayjackson's roster...I'm hoping it's the one that we break camp with.

I would like to see Downs, Litsch and Janssen battle for the 5th spot in the rotation. I like Janssen there; it's where he's better suited in my opinion. Downs would have to blow us away to get the spot - something I think he's capable of...for a while back in'05 he was our most dependable starter with high K's(that was the year Chacin and Towers led the staff with Halladay out with an injury).
I like Litsch alot but I think his WHIP(1.37) and opposing BA(.270) show that he overachieved quite a bit. His groudball tendencies were also a plus. I hope I'm wrong and that he really has the capability to post another sub-4.00 ERA in the next 100 IP in the majors...but for now, it would be best to keep him in AAA and only if he absolutely wows us, to call him us and replace Janssen with him in the rotation(then demote whoever isn't cutting it...ie. League or Wolfe). Keep in mind that Litsch really has skipped AAA to make it to the majors(how much of his success last year was due to brimming confidence?)

R Billie - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 01:47 PM EST (#178823) #

Janssen as a starter I have some concerns. He threw slightly harder as a reliever it seemed and he doesn't have great splits against lefty batters. You stack up a lefty heavy lineup against him and three times through the order he could have problems. There's also his low K rate which may be more exposed over longer appearances.

The plus is he gets groundballs, doesn't walk many, and tends to keep the ball in the park. He'll have a fine infield behind him too. As such he could maybe be a Carlos Silva type if his back holds out this time.

SK in NJ - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 02:29 PM EST (#178826) #

Am I the only one who thinks Brandon League should get a shot in the rotation? I don't know how healthy he is, but given his velocity and GB tendencies, wouldn't he be a perfect addition to the rotation given the team's defensive prowess? It's a long shot that he turns into Carmona or Wang, but it would be worth a shot. He certainly has the upside/stuff.

As for Rolen, this was basically the equivalent of extending Glaus for 2 more years. Ricciardi knew he didn't have anyone to play 3B after 2008 if Glaus opted out, and this was his way of keeping the spot occupied until 2010 while getting rid of a possible steroid distraction at the same time.

Mylegacy - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 03:46 PM EST (#178827) #

This & That

First THIS: The fifth starter. I would be over the moon happy if Litch, Chacin or Wolfe would beat out Janssen. Our pen with Janssen is soooo good. IF, Purcey could "click" and make that fifth spor I'd be even further over the...er...you get the idea.

THAT: Eveyone says Glaus' defense was better than he got credit for. I agree. However, I've seen him watch bunts and walk over to them as they went down third. I've seen him go to his left with reasonable range. To his right however it was a very different story - I don't think I've ever seen him make a "good" (better than OK) play to his right. HOWEVER, I love the guy. I've seen Rolen make plays that made my mouth drop open. We are going to see a night and day difference. The first second Rolen stands at third he will be the best third baseman, by miles, that we've had. Get ready to have your eyes opened big time! Offensively, we'll no longer have a balck hole against righties.

John Northey - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 05:32 PM EST (#178830) #

The pen is the big battle this spring and I suspect another shoe is yet to drop as we are still weak behind the plate and JP has shown a desire for another starting pitcher.

Ryan/Accardo/Janssen/Downs are the locks for the pen (I see Janssen not making the rotation). That leave 3 slots for Frasor/Tallet/Wolfe/League/rule V guy. Given the 7th guy in the pen doesn't get much work (as a rule) I suspect they want to give it to the V'er. So 2 slots for 4 guys. Something has to give. I suspect Janssen and Litsch are being mixed into trade possiblities (young pitchers who can both be in a rotation who both are helped a lot by the Jays top notch defense, more so than many GM's might figure) as are Frasor/Wolfe/League (I think they like Tallet as the backup leftie).

Trade from strength. Pitching is the strength enhanced by strong defense. Pitchers will look to be better than they are here so take full advantage. Get a young ace from somewhere by trading a couple potential ones who have poor ratios and the Jays could be flying. Don't forget good ol' Chacin in AAA along with others working their way up. Also remember than McGowan & Marcum could turn back into pumpkins and AJ will be bye bye next winter.

Phew, lots to consider for JP. Still I say go for a strong starter if you can find it, making use of those young guns who don't K much.

CaramonLS - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 05:43 PM EST (#178831) #

I'm still hoping JP goes out and gets a legitimate starter: Bartolo Colon for a decent base + incentives. If he was able to regain some of his form, he could push this team over the top.

ChicagoJaysFan - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 05:54 PM EST (#178832) #

Am I the only one who thinks Brandon League should get a shot in the rotation?

I believe League is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher - I'm not sure he has the stuff (in terms of #'s of pitches) to be a starter. If he could improve his change-up and maybe add a 4th pitch he could be a good candidate. I'm pretty sure the lack of effective secondary pitches is what initially prompted his move to the pen.

As to Janssen, which someone else mentined, I'd rather see him in the rotation than the bullpen. Low-K pitchers in the bullpen limit the type of situations that you could bring people in. Janssen is not the type of guy I'd want to bring in with a runner in scoring position with less than 2 outs. However, I don't know how much of the decrease in K rate is just Janssen getting used to the league. In the minors he was a lot higher than he's been in the majors so far (and at 26, I think he could still improve).

ayjackson - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 06:22 PM EST (#178833) #

Ryan/Accardo/Janssen/Downs are the locks for the pen (I see Janssen not making the rotation).

You may see Janssen not making the rotation, but he far from a "lock" for the pen. I think it is Blair who has alluded to, on more than one occasion this offseason, JP's desire to try Janssen as a starter again this spring.

Ducey - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 06:22 PM EST (#178834) #

I like the trade. Hopefully they got a different Doc to assess Rolen's shoulder than the guy who approved Sirotka's shoulder.

For those who are worried about the season in all of this, you are worrying about the wrong left shoulder. More than any other factor, the fate of this team rests on VW's shoulder. If he hits like he can and can stop popping up fastballs on the outside of the plate, the Jays will be fine. If he hits like last year, they have big expensive hole in their lineup.

Flex - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 06:44 PM EST (#178835) #

And according to the official Jays site, as of 6:15 pm, the deal became official.

Ryan Day - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 07:11 PM EST (#178836) #

I'm still hoping JP goes out and gets a legitimate starter: Bartolo Colon for a decent base + incentives.

How is Colon a legitimate starter? He's hardly pitched for the last two years, and been pretty bad when he has. He'll also be 35 this year and has never exactly been known for his conditioning.

I mean, if he'll sign a very-close-to-minimum deal with some big incentives, sure, take a shot. But it's not like he's hugely likely to be much better than anyone the Jays already have.

lexomatic - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 07:23 PM EST (#178837) #

it's a little off-topic but i don't think anyone's replied to SheldonL's post-script.
i think it's hard to argue against a home run being better than a double, if only because the goal on offense is to score runs, and a run in hand is better than 2 on the bases so to speak. i agree that doubles are more exciting, though i've always preferred to triples.
a home run still "continues the slaughter" it's just not as equitable in terms fo distributing the rbi's . the home run also potentially is soul crushing... the timing of a home-run can have a devastating effect on someone's confidence (cf. all those closers who gave up series winning type HRs and their follow up years).
In a more relevant case like Rolen vs Glaus, a large # of doubles could be better than some homers. All things equal though, see point #1 (i.e. 40 hrs > 40 2b)

i haven't been able to get quotes to work for awhile.
Post-script: I'd like to ask for opinions: what's better a homerun or a double?
I have always held that the homers are more debilitating and better but this past season, I've changed my mind. I think doubles are better. I'd be curious to hear Bill James' opinion.
Basically, a double is better because it the continues the slaughter in that it keeps a runner in scoring position for the next hitter whereas the post-homerun hitter starts fresh like a leadoff guy. This can have a more significant effect on the opposing pitcher who is still stuck in a prickly situation; whereas a homerun gives him the opportunity to start fresh.
In addition, a double allows for "taking extra bases" in terms of base running. A guy on first could score on a double and the defense's prerogative to thrown home could move the hitter up to third on a throw home.
Thoughts?

SheldonL - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 07:28 PM EST (#178838) #

John Northey, I totally forgot about Chacin as did ayjackson.
Also, thanks, for reminding us to be a little more cautious...it's true, McGowan and Marcum could take a step back. McGowan's improvement was sorta overnight despite a ton of starts in which he flat out stank. However, I think he's for real and any struggles he should have will be short-term funks.
Marcum on the other hand went from among the league's best starters to a fatigued BP pitcher...his homerun rate is not really indicative of the season he had. I'd like to think that fatigue had alot to do with it.

If the Jays were to break camp tomorrow, they'd have a lot of decisions to make. There's no doubt that JP must be exploring options to deal some of the surplus of pitchers he has.
Demoting League to have him in the rotation in AAA would be very intriguing. Btw, does Chacin have any option years left; can we stash him while we audition Litsch/Janssen.
On second thought, as much as I like Janssen and would love to see him as a starter, I think Litsch should be the number 5 guy. I just looked at their stats again and I think Litsch really handled himself well and was overall very consitent. His walk rate was not bad for a guy in his first go-around in the league. Perhaps sticking with him will no doubt keep his spirits up(read that "confidence").

Who would you guys put on your 25 man roster?

SheldonL - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 08:08 PM EST (#178839) #

in addition to posting your opinion on the homerun-double question, can anyone tell which prospects(Starting pitchers) are slated to be in the rotation in AAA and AA...because I just realized that any thoughts of converting League into a starter and having Chacin start in AAA shouldn't block any prospects... development is more important

Ryan Day - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 08:14 PM EST (#178840) #

After League's physical problems last year, I think you've got to err on the side of caution and at least start him in the pen. If everything's right physically, maybe start giving him longer relief stints with an eye towards starting towards the end of the season or 2009.

Mike Green - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 08:33 PM EST (#178841) #

More love for Rolen's defence.

Ayjackson's account of the likely 25 man seems reasonable. The club might want to take a long look at Litsch and Purcey for the 6th and 7th spots in the bullpen. These would be my choices for the 6th and 7th starters in the event of injury, and I'd rather see them in the pen on the big club rather than starting in Syracuse. Long live Earl Weaver!

parrot11 - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 08:47 PM EST (#178842) #

How is Colon a legitimate starter? He's hardly pitched for the last two years, and been pretty bad when he has.

You know what they say, if he's healthy, he'll be good. That must mean that he'll be good then. No need to factor in the injury factor. (end of sarcasm)

Ryan Day - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 09:10 PM EST (#178844) #

A Cy Young in 2005. Followed by a partially torn rotator cuff in 2006, leading to 56 innings and a 5.11 ERA. Followed by 99 innings of 6.34 ERA in 2007 with elbow issues.

As a take-a-chance cheapo reclamation project, Colon looks like a nice shot. But at this point in his career, he hasn't shown he's got anything Jesse Litsch doesn't.

HollywoodHartman - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:21 PM EST (#178846) #

So... Whats the Box's take on the Jays' ideal lineup?

ayjackson - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:34 PM EST (#178847) #

In response to a few questions:

I didn't forget about Chacin in my 25-man projection, though I did forget about Rule V Dude.
Chacin has an option remaining.
Gerry has updated the Jays Depth Chart.

Dave Till - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 10:56 PM EST (#178851) #

I was waiting for this one to come up. How does Eckstein not remember Troy Glaus? The guy who was the MVP credited on David's other World Series ring.

Owned! :-)

More seriously: I was thinking more about Rolen's comfort level than about Eckstein's.

On reflection: the best thing I like about this trade is that it changes things up a bit. I don't know whether I would have looked forward to another season of a whole bunch of right-handed hitters striking out and grounding into double plays all the time. Rolen hits right, but he doesn't strike out much or ground into many DPs.

I suspect that the infield behind Halladay will be Rolen/McDonald/Hill/Overbay. Will anybody be able to hit a ground ball through that infield? In 2007, the Jays' defensive infield was head and shoulders above everybody else's by most defensive measures; what will it be like in '08?

Though there is one concern: the first time Rolen and McDonald play together, there is a distinct risk of a head-on collision. McDonald isn't used to having a third baseman ranging to his left; Glaus isn't a bad fielder, but he doesn't have a lot of lateral mobility. And Rolen is used to Eckstein, who can't go way way way into the hole like Johnny Mac can. I can see the two men going for a ground ball between third and short, straining every sinew to try to reach the ball without looking where they are going, and then CLANG, another injury-filled season gets off to a bad start.

scottt - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 11:31 PM EST (#178853) #

So now, do we get to see Rolen in one of those questionable ads?

Ron - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 11:55 PM EST (#178854) #

HollywoodHartman - Monday, January 14 2008 @ 11:58 PM EST (#178855) #

I can see it now... A UPS man shows up with a box looking for the "the third baseman." When Rolen opens the box he finds a syringe and says with a smile, "Oh, this is for the old third baseman." The commercial ends with the same deliveryman walking past that Gateway Arch...

Ryan Day - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:14 AM EST (#178856) #

I don't really have anything new to add But let me just say, I would usually take the player with the foot problem over a player with a shoulder problem.

But they've both had shoulder problems.

If Rolen never regains his power stroke, which is pretty likely,

Is it? After Rolen's first surgery, he came back to slug .518 in 2006. Glaus' power stroke never seemed to go anywhere post-surgery.

TamRa - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 02:15 AM EST (#178858) #

"Chacin has an option remaining."

Can you source this? I was sure he did not but i can't find a source.

Halladayfan32 - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 07:51 AM EST (#178859) #

Here you go WillRain, courtesy of Jordan Bastian from the Jays site.

The only way that Chacin would have to clear waivers is if he were out of options, which he is not. The Jays are indicating the left-hander should be healthy by Spring Training following surgery on his throwing shoulder in August. Still, Chacin has slipped down the depth chart and looks like a long shot to make the rotation. As things currently stack up, Chacin appears to be headed for the starting staff at Triple-A Syracuse to open the season.

ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:05 AM EST (#178865) #

Based on the large number of posts, I don't really have anything new to add But let me just say, I would usually take the player with the foot problem over a player with a shoulder problem. If Rolen never regains his power stroke, which is pretty likely, this trade will look terrible for the Jays. I don't like the chances of either player playing 145+ games next season. I'm probably 60% against this trade and 40% for it. I do undestand the logic behind it though.

I think I look at it a bit differently. While I agree that the optics won't be great if Rolen never regains his power stroke - I think if Glaus stayed in Toronto, he was done. Everything I've read/heard is that the surface at Rogers Centre was a leading factor in his injuries. PF is something that takes a long, long time to recover from, if ever, and with Glaus playing at Toronto, I don't think he would have. I was very concerned about Glaus being in our line-up next year. While Rolen doesn't remove those concerns, I am rather confident that Rolen in our line-up will be at least as productive as Glaus. The .700 July OPS, .725 August OPS, and quick shutdown in September is what I think we would have seen for the rest of Glaus' Toronto days. Those numbers are pretty much in-line with what Rolen did last season.

lexomatic - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:06 AM EST (#178866) #

re: games played... i think i remember reading/hearing JMac was supposed to be Halladays personal SS. that means all things considered that would be about 30 games where Eckstein would be counted on only for a late inning pinch hitting assignment or injury replacement. those 30 games could keep him fresh and healthier. maybe.

I'm not thrilled about more than 20 games played by anyone other than Rolen at 3b

John Northey - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 10:17 AM EST (#178868) #

parrot11 - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 11:05 AM EST (#178872) #

I think a good thing to think about with the injuries is ability of team medical staff.

Jays: successful with Glaus' shoulder issues but nervous about Glaus foot issue
Cards: successful with Pujols foot issues (same as Glaus issue today) but not as successful with Rolen shoulder
That is a ridiculous assumption. I would rather believe that some medical staffs are competent and others aren't. To suggest that some medical staffs specialize in a particular type of injury is a bit far-fetched. Using that logic it would be D-back docs that are experts in shoulders. What about Wells shoulder injury, how come the miracle docs couldn't fix him (or suggested to fix him in the offseason when they still had time)? Maybe Pujols foot problems weren't anywhere close to being as bad as Glaus' knee/feet. I realize that many doctors specialize, but to suggest that one team has the magic elixur to a particular problem is not based in reality.

John Northey - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 12:55 PM EST (#178887) #

Ridiculous to think that medical staffs have different skill sets? I guess you never heard of specialists and how some doctors are better at treating some injuries than others. Ask any doctor and they'll tell you that they are better at diagnosing and correcting some injuries over other ones. Common sense here parrot11. Or are you equally good/bad at all aspects of your job?

Much like saying a player is 'good' or 'bad' at baseball when you get different skill sets (McDonald on defense is good, Thomas on defense is bad, McDonald on offense is bad, Thomas on offense is good for a basic example). In the overall picture they may be 'good' or 'bad' but if you need a shortstop then Thomas is a lot worse than McDonald even though, in overall value, Thomas is the better player. Medical staffs are the same.

To say that a medical staff is either 'good' or 'bad' at all aspects is just, well, ridiculous.

parrot11 - Tuesday, January 15 2008 @ 01:15 PM EST (#178891) #

Your rebutal is a strawman. I never said there weren't specialists. What I'm saying is the notion that one team's medical staff is particularly adept at treating a certain type of injury is bogus. What you can say is that the surgeon that performed the shoulder surgery on Glaus did a good job (and those guys are usually not affiliated with a team, e.g. Dr. Andrews). You can't use that to infer that the Blue Jays are particularly good at treating shoulder injuries since Glaus was productive with the bat in his time here. He did hit just under 38HR's with the Dbacks prior to coming here. And what about Wells? Using your logic, Wells should have had no problem with his shoulder. You're drawing conclusions without considering that there are relevant differences (esp the extent of the injury) and insufficient sample size. That's what makes no sense.

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