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So I'm watching the game and I hear Campbell and Tabler are talking about next month's All Star Game.

Campbell seemed to find it inconceivable that anyone besides Roy Halladay could be named the AL starter. It is, indeed, an honour long overdue - Doc was going to start the 2005 game, according to Terry Francona, but Kevin Mench's bat had other ideas. Tabler did note that Zack Greinke has to be taken into consideration - like, DUH - and that the AL starter will probably end up being determined by which man is actually available to pitch (i.e., which one doesn't work the Sunday game before the break.)

So let's have a quick peek at how the Blue Jays and Royals rotations shake up from here until the break. First, let's assume that both teams continue to roll over their five starters:

Mon, Jun  8    @ Texas           Janssen
Tue, Jun 9    @ Texas    Tallet
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas    Romero
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas    Richmond
Fri, Jun 12    Florida    Halladay
Sat, Jun 13    Florida    Janssen
Sun, Jun 14    Florida    Tallet
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Romero
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Richmond
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Halladay
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington    Janssen
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington    Tallet
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington    Romero
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati    Richmond
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati    Halladay
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati    Janssen
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia    Tallet
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia    Romero
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia    Richmond
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay    Halladay
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay    Janssen
Wed, Jul 1    Tampa Bay    Tallet
Tue, Jul 2    OFF DAY   
Fri, Jul 3    @ NY Yankees    Romero
Sat, Jul 4    @ NY Yankees    Richmond
Sun, Jul 5    @ NY Yankees    Halladay
Mon, Jul 6    @ NY Yankees     Janssen
Tue, Jul 7    @ Tampa Bay     Tallet
Wed, Jul 8    @ Tampa Bay     Romero
Thu, Jul 9    @ Tampa Bay     Richmond
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore     Halladay
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore     Janssen
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore     Tallet

This obviously leaves Halladay well positioned to make the start for the AL - on three days rest, he can certainly give you a couple of innings. How about the Royals?

Tue, Jun  9    @ Cleveland      Bannister
Wed, Jun 10    @ Cleveland    Meche
Thu, Jun 11    @ Cleveland    Greinke
Fri, Jun 12    Cincinnati    Hochevar
Sat, Jun 13    Cincinnati    Davies
Sun, Jun 14    Cincinnati    Bannister
    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 16    Arizona    Meche
Wed, Jun 17    Arizona    Greinke
Thu, Jun 18    Arizona    Hochevar
Fri, Jun 19    St. Louis     Davies
Sat, Jun 20    St. Louis     Bannister
Sun, Jun 21    St. Louis     Meche
    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 23    @ Houston    Greinke
Wed, Jun 24    @ Houston     Hochevar
Thu, Jun 25    @ Houston    Davies
Fri, Jun 26    @ Pittsburgh    Bannister
Sat, Jun 27    @ Pittsburgh     Meche
Sun, Jun 28    @ Pittsburgh    Greinke
Mon, Jun 29    Minnesota    Hochevar
Tue, Jun 30    Minnesota    Davies
Wed, Jul 1    Minnesota    Bannister
Thu, Jul 2    White Sox    Meche
Fri, Jul 3    White Sox    Greinke
Sat, Jul 4    White Sox     Hochevar
Sun, Jul 5    White Sox     Davies
Mon, Jul 6    @ Detroit     Bannister
Tue, Jul 7    @ Detroit     Meche
Wed, Jul 8    @ Detroit    Greinke
Thu, Jul 9    @ Boston     Hochevar
Fri, Jul 10    @ Boston     Davies
Sat, Jul 11    @ Boston    Bannister
Sun, Jul 12    @ Boston     Meche

Even better for Greinke - he would be the next man up in the KC rotation.

Of course, it seems highly unlikely that either team's rotations will unfold this way. The Blue Jays have three off days between now and the break - the Royals have two. Cito Gaston has already skipped Scott Richmond once in order to keep sending Halladay out there every five days, and has stated that it's his intention to carry on in the same fashion (just as John Gibbons did before him.) And it certainly seems unlikely that the Royals will allow their rotation to unfold so that Greinke starts on Wed July 8 and doesn't pitch for them again until Fri July 17 (the Royals and the Jays are both off on the Thursday after the All Star Game.)

What might they do?

Let's try this instead. After Toronto's off day on June 15, they come back with Ricky Romero the nexty day, as scheduled. But for the 17th, Scott Richmond is passed over. Halladay, Janssen, Tallet all work on normal rest, Richmond makes the start on June 20, and Romero on June 21.

At which point, the Jays have another off day. It's Halladay's turn - Gaston's choice will be to bring him back on short rest before the off day, or leave things alone and him have the extra day. Given those choices, I'd let him have the extra day and I expect Gaston will as well. So on June 23 Halladay would kick off a stretch of nine games in nine days before the next off day (July 2). It would be Ricky Romero's turn the next day, followed by Halladay on the 4th of July - it's a simple enough matter to flip the two starters. You keep Doc on his five day cycle, and give the youngster an extra day (and the Jays do need to be paying attention to Romero's innings pitched this season.) There being 10 games in 10 days before the break, the Jays cycle through their five starters - the sequence, by this point, is Halladay-Romero-Janssen-Tallet-Richmond - and Halladay will arrive at the break having last pitched on Wednesday July 8. Primed and ready for the NL.

It would unfold like this:
        
Mon, Jun 8    @ Texas    Janssen (1-2)
Tue, Jun 9    @ Texas    Tallet (3-3)
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas    Romero (3-2)
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas    Richmond (4-3)
Fri, Jun 12    Florida     Halladay (10-1)
Sat, Jun 13    Florida     Janssen (1-2)
Sun, Jun 14    Florida    Tallet (3-3)
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Romero (3-2)
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Halladay (10-1)
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Janssen (1-2)
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington    Tallet (3-3)
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington    Richmond (4-3)
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington    Romero (3-2)
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati    Halladay (10-1)
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati    Janssen (1-2)
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati    Tallet (3-3)
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia     Richmond (4-3)
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia     Romero (3-2)
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia     Halladay (10-1)
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay     Janssen (1-2)
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay     Tallet (3-3)
Wed, Jul 1    Tampa Bay     Richmond (4-3)
Tue, Jul 2    OFF DAY   
Fri, Jul 3    @ NY Yankees     Halladay (10-1)
Sat, Jul 4    @ NY Yankees     Romero (3-2)
Sun, Jul 5    @ NY Yankees     Janssen (1-2)
Mon, Jul 6    @ NY Yankees    Tallet (3-3)
Tue, Jul 7    @ Tampa Bay     Richmond (4-3)
Wed, Jul 8    @ Tampa Bay     Halladay (10-1)
Thu, Jul 9    @ Tampa Bay     Romero (3-2)
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore     Janssen (1-2)
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore     Tallet (3-3)
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore     Richmond (4-3)
Having worked all this out - what is the point? If Gaston simply rolls over his five starters without taking off days into account, Halladay makes six more starts before the break. If he uses the off days to bump someone else temporarily and keep Halladay on normal rest - Doc makes six more starts before the break. The only change in the opposition would be see him facing Philadelphia rather than Tampa Bay - doesn't seem like a priority.

The only way to get Halladay a seventh start before the break would require him pitching on three days rest - twice. Like this:

Mon, Jun  8    @ Texas           Janssen
Tue, Jun 9    @ Texas     Tallet
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas     Romero
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas     Richmond
Fri, Jun 12    Florida     Halladay
Sat, Jun 13    Florida     Janssen
Sun, Jun 14    Florida    Tallet
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Romero
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Halladay
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Janssen
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington     Tallet
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington     Richmond
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington     Halladay
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati    Romero
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati     Janssen
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati    Tallet
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia     Richmond
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia     Halladay
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia     Romero
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay    Janssen
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay     Tallet
Wed, Jul 1    Tampa Bay     Halladay
Tue, Jul 2    OFF DAY   
Fri, Jul 3    @ NY Yankees    Romero
Sat, Jul 4    @ NY Yankees     Janssen
Sun, Jul 5    @ NY Yankees     Tallet
Mon, Jul 6    @ NY Yankees     Halladay
Tue, Jul 7    @ Tampa Bay     Richmond
Wed, Jul 8    @ Tampa Bay     Romero
Thu, Jul 9    @ Tampa Bay     Janssen
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore     Tallet
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore     Halladay
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore     Richmond
It doesn't seem worth doing, not to me.

The Royals only have two off days to play with. But with one simple tweak, they get an extra start out of Greinke before the break, while keeping him on his regular rest. All they have to do is flip Greinke and Meche after their off day on June 14. Getting an extra start out of Greinke before the break, especially when it doesn't require him working on short rest, seems well worth doing. It means, of course, that he'd have to start the ROyals last game before the break. Like so:

Tue, Jun  9    @ Cleveland       Bannister 
Wed, Jun 10    @ Cleveland    Meche
Thu, Jun 11    @ Cleveland    Greinke
Fri, Jun 12    Cincinnati    Hochevar
Sat, Jun 13    Cincinnati    Davies
Sun, Jun 14    Cincinnati    Bannister
    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 16    Arizona    Greinke
Wed, Jun 17    Arizona    Meche
Thu, Jun 18    Arizona    Hochevar
Fri, Jun 19    St. Louis    Davies
Sat, Jun 20    St. Louis    Bannister
Sun, Jun 21    St. Louis    Greinke
    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 23    @ Houston     Meche
Wed, Jun 24    @ Houston     Hochevar
Thu, Jun 25    @ Houston     Davies
Fri, Jun 26    @ Pittsburgh     Bannister
Sat, Jun 27    @ Pittsburgh     Greinke
Sun, Jun 28    @ Pittsburgh     Meche
Mon, Jun 29    Minnesota     Hochevar
Tue, Jun 30    Minnesota     Davies
Wed, Jul 1    Minnesota     Bannister
Thu, Jul 2    White Sox     Greinke
Fri, Jul 3    White Sox     Meche
Sat, Jul 4    White Sox     Hochevar
Sun, Jul 5    White Sox     Davies
Mon, Jul 6    @ Detroit     Bannister
Tue, Jul 7    @ Detroit     Greinke
Wed, Jul 8    @ Detroit     Meche
Thu, Jul 9    @ Boston    Hochevar
Fri, Jul 10    @ Boston    Davies
Sat, Jul 11    @ Boston     Bannister
Sun, Jul 12    @ Boston     Greinke


(If they like, they can flip him and Bannister when they cycle through the rotation after their other off day, but there seems little profit in that.

The All Star Starter | 17 comments | Create New Account
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TamRa - Monday, June 08 2009 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#200975) #
I would suggest that not EVER off day is an opportunity for a shift....I'd do it like this:

Mon, Jun  8    @ Texas           Janssen
Tue, Jun 9    @ Texas    Tallet
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas    Romero
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas    Richmond
Fri, Jun 12    Florida    Halladay
Sat, Jun 13    Florida    Janssen
Sun, Jun 14    Florida    Tallet
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Romero
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Richmond
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Halladay
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington    Janssen
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington    Tallet
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington    Romero
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati    Richmond
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati    Halladay
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati    Janssen
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia    Tallet
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia    Romero
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia    Richmond
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay    Halladay
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay    Janssen
Wed, Jul 1    Tampa Bay    Tallet
Tue, Jul 2    OFF DAY   
Fri, Jul 3    @ NY Yankees    Romero
Sat, Jul 4    @ NY Yankees    Halladay
Sun, Jul 5    @ NY Yankees    Janssen
Mon, Jul 6    @ NY Yankees     Tallet
Tue, Jul 7    @ Tampa Bay     Richmond
Wed, Jul 8    @ Tampa Bay     Romero
Thu, Jul 9    @ Tampa Bay     Halladay
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore     Janssen
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore     Tallet
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore     Richmond
Thus Doc stays in the first series vs TB (more important than facing the Phillies) and he's moved into the second series vs the Rays (more important than the O's) and his normal turn falls on All Star Day.

Furthermore, if Doc starts the 3rd game after the break, and pitched on the fifth day whenever possible, he'd face an AL East Opponent in 13 of 16 post-All Star starts - 10 of those being Boston, NY, or TB.

As for Jerry's opinion - here's mine: when you can make a solid case for both pitchers, reward the guy with the better overall career if he hasn't ever had the honor before, reward the fresh guy if the older guy HAS had the honor before. It might be the only chance he gets.

brent - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#200977) #

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=290608113

Sometimes the story about the offense or the starting pitching overshadows the importance of having a good bullpen. Nice work today, Frasor!

gabrielthursday - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#200978) #
There is a simple way to get Halladay seven starts before the all-star game.  By starting Halladay a day early here in Texas, we get an extra start before the break.  He's coming off a mere 97-pitch start, his second-lowest pitch count this season.  There's really no better time to start him on short rest.  Here it is:

Mon, Jun  8    @ Texas           Janssen
Tue, Jun 9    @ Texas    Tallet
Wed, Jun 10    @ Texas    Romero
Thu, Jun 11    @ Texas    Halladay
Fri, Jun 12    Florida    Richmond
Sat, Jun 13    Florida    Janssen
Sun, Jun 14    Florida    Tallet
Mon, Jun 15    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 16    @ Philadelphia    Halladay
Wed, Jun 17    @ Philadelphia    Romero
Thu, Jun 18    @ Philadelphia    Richmond
Fri, Jun 19    @ Washington    Janssen
Sat, Jun 20    @ Washington    Tallet
Sun, Jun 21    @ Washington    Halladay
Mon, Jun 22    OFF DAY   
Tue, Jun 23    Cincinnati    Romero
Wed, Jun 24    Cincinnati    Janssen
Thu, Jun 25    Cincinnati    Tallet
Fri, Jun 26    Philadelphia    Halladay
Sat, Jun 27    Philadelphia    Richmond
Sun, Jun 28    Philadelphia    Romero
Mon, Jun 29    Tampa Bay    Janssen
Tue, Jun 30    Tampa Bay    Tallet
Wed, Jul 1    Tampa Bay    Halladay
Tue, Jul 2    OFF DAY   
Fri, Jul 3    @ NY Yankees    Romero
Sat, Jul 4    @ NY Yankees    Janssen
Sun, Jul 5    @ NY Yankees    Tallet
Mon, Jul 6    @ NY Yankees     Halladay
Tue, Jul 7    @ Tampa Bay     Richmond
Wed, Jul 8    @ Tampa Bay     Romero
Thu, Jul 9    @ Tampa Bay     Janssen
Fri, Jul 10    @ Baltimore     Tallet
Sat, Jul 11    @ Baltimore     Halladay
Sun, Jul 12    @ Baltimore     Richmond

Problem solved. And with two days' rest, Halladay could still pitch a pair of innings for
 the All-Star game. It would be his side day.


westcoast dude - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#200980) #

If the Blue Jays sweep the Rangers, keep cycling all five starters.  Never start Doc on three days rest.  

 Frasor got it done, but Barajas nailing Byrd on the suicide squeeze snuffed out the rally pilot light and it never got lit again.  Not only was it a team effort, but five players are now batting over.300.

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#200981) #
On the post-game show, a caller asked Wilner which Jays would be all-stars if the game was held today. Wilner's response was Halladay, probably Hill, and maybe Lind but because of the whole no-DH thing, there's a good chance Lind doesn't make the cut. I realize Mike was answering the question in the form of "who will be an all-star" rather than "who should be an all star", but here's hoping Scutaro and Downs get serious consideration as well - they both deserve it.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#200983) #
It would be a shame if Lind didn't go, because even without a DH spot Lind should rank as the #2 LF this year, right there with Damon behind Bay.
Jevant - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#200984) #
If Halladay and Hill keep the same pace they've set so far, they will both go, probably without question.  Lind, should he keep up current pace probably should go, but probably won't.  Scutaro (who in my opinion has been the most valuable non-Roy member of the Jays this year, simply due to his remarkable consistency) should go at this point even if he cools a bit, but almost assuredly won't (although you never know.  The AL SS crowd isn't stacked by any measure).  And Downs probably could go, but I think he's probably 5th in line behind the other 4, so I think it would be a real surprise if he ended up on the squad.

The Scutaro issue intrigues me most.  I looked at the list of AL starting SS, and came the opinion that not only has Scutaro been the best SS in the AL not named Jeter, it isn't even really that close.  Who else is in that discussion?  Peralta/Andrus/Ramirez are the next 3, in some order, but none of them have been even close to Scutaro's level this year.

Huh.  I've now talked myself into it.  Scutaro WILL go to the AS game, but regrettably, I feel like that would be explained (by the media) as a result of a weak field, rather than recognizing Scutaro's excellence this y ear.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#200985) #
Scutaro been the best SS in the AL not named Jeter

He's been arguably better than Jeter this season.
zeppelinkm - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#200986) #
Where do we think Hill will end up by year's end? Still north of .300 for BA and north of .475 for slg?

From this point on, who will be the more productive hitter, Hill or Uggla?

Scutaro has been absolutely remarkable this year. Don't have a SS or lead off hitter? Problem solved. Thank you very much Mr. Scutaro.

Anyone else find remarkable similarities in the appearance of Scutaro and Riccardi? It's kind of eerie...

And finally... can Doc get to 25 wins? He's probably got another 20-22 starts (22 at the most, he's only started 35+ games once in his career... ooo, he won the Cy that year too..)?

If he can achieve such an improbable feat it will significant help his hall chances, me thinks. Was Johnson's 24 wins in 2002 the most by a starter since 1990? I see Clemans won 24 in the late 80's... the last time (as far as my research shows me) someone won 25 was Steve Stone in 1980.

Weird coincidence? Steve Stone was 32 when he won 25 games... Doc is 32 this year. Let's hope the age and winning 25 in their age 32 season is the end of all coincidences or similarities between Stone and Doc. (Should Doc go on to achieve this feat).



Chuck - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#200987) #
Bob Welch won 27 in 1990.
rpriske - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#200988) #

Prediction (not preference)

Greinke gets the start. Hill and Halladay are the only Jays repped.

Halladay doesn't even get in the game (at his own request... they save him for extra-innings or whatever and that doesn't happen.)

Jevant - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#200990) #
Fair enough, but to date, they are the only 2 that should be in the discussion for "best SS in the AL in 2009".

I suppose Jason Bartlett should also be in the discussion, but he is injured.

On the assumption that Jeter starts, Scutaro should be the backup (they always take at least one backup at each position).  I have a terrible feeling, however, it will be one of Peralta/Ramirez/Andrus instead, especially if once they establish that they have to take Halladay and Hill, the powers that be refuse to take another Jay.

Maldoff - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#200993) #

The Good Guys may have caught a break today as scheduled Rangers starter Brandon McCarthy has been sidelines with a stress fracture in his shoulder blade. He is being replaced in the rotation tonight by Doug Mathis.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4242542

James W - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#201019) #

Jhonny Peralta:  .254/.336/.332, Alexei Ramirez:  .261/.303/.360, Elvis Andrus:  .276/.330/.405.  You need not worry about any of them making the all-star team.

For reference, Marco Scutaro:  .304/.402/.451.   As you mentioned, Jason Bartlett is the one to worry about.  Correct me if I missed anyone worth considering, but I doubt I did.

gabrielthursday - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#201020) #
Regarding Scutaro and Jeter, I think Scutaro has been better to date.  Offensively, they are almost identically valuable - Scutaro getting on base a little more, Jeter hitting for a little more power.  But while Scutaro has shown strong signs of being an above-average defensive shortstop, Jeter has well-established himself as a historically terrible gloveman.  Give Jeter his at-bat in the top of the first, and let Scutaro save Halladay or Greinke the a few hits going up the middle or through the hole.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#201027) #
I thought I had read that nowdays the fans vote the starters and the players vote the second string before the manager fills out the roster (except for the last guy who's also a fan vote)

If that's the case, Scoot (and Hill) might have a decent shot because they are the sort of guys other players tend to reward (Scoot for his defense and the "journeyman made good" story).


Jevant - Tuesday, June 09 2009 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#201031) #
I hate to say it, but I did look up those 3 (and their numbers), and I STILL worry about any of the 3 of them making it ahead of Scoot.  Ramirez has last year, Andrus is the "hot young rookie on the hot young team", and Peralta hit a bunch of HRs a year ago.  I'm still not convinced that the powers that be will make the right call.

If healthy, Bartlett could squeeze him out.

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