That's a weirdly excessive rating for Arencibia.   If he's such a great prospect, why have the Jays just signed or acquired four other catchers in the past few days?  (Chavez, Buck, Castro and apparently d'Arnaud.)   Not much of a vote of confidence for Arencibia from his own team.

Well, I seriously doubt that two of Buck, Chavez and Castro are here come 2011. Arencibia looks like he will be given plenty of chances to succeed.

Ranking the Phillies prospects (Plus Wallace), to me, seems easy.

1. Kyle Drabek
2. Brett Wallace
3. Zach Stewart
4. Travis D'Arnard
5. Moises Sierra

Crazy to think that four of the top five prospects for the Jays weren't even part of the organization six months ago.

Quite a few weird, weird ratings.  Wait for Sickels.

Marisnick at number 6 is also very strange.  That would make him a better prospect than Sierra, Perez, Farquhar and Mills, among others, which I would seriously question.

That's a weirdly excessive rating for Arencibia.   If he's such a great prospect, why have the Jays just signed or acquired four other catchers in the past few days?  (Chavez, Buck, Castro and apparently d'Arnaud.)   Not much of a vote of confidence for Arencibia from his own team.

I've been thinking the same thing.

Marisnick in the Top 10 could be seen from outer space.

BA loves upside. Marisnick had late first round type talent. When we signed him for $1 million it signalled that we also at least felt that he was of that stature. Given our terrible system that easily puts Marisnick in BA's Top 10.

Nice to see BA shrewdly projecting Halladay as the top pitcher in the Jays rotation in 2013.  Maybe the Phillies will trade him back to the Jays?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269273.html

I think the ranking of Arencibia is fine. He is close to the ML, has shown he is capable of hitting alot of HR's (30+). He has his shortcomings (cant take a walk) but a catcher with adequate defense who will hit around .270 with 30HR power is something to be desired.

Chavez, Buck, and Castro are all on one-year deals, and Chavez didn't even get a major league contract, so none of them affect Arencibia's long-term prospects. D'arnaud's a couple years behind him. BA's outlook is that he can probably hit 20-25 homers and be a solid defender, which could make him a valuable catcher even if he never improves his plate discipline.

BA appears to place a great deal of weight on draft position and not enough on performance/injury history after. 

BA's "projected 2013 lineup" of Arencibia, Cooper, Hill, Jackson, Ahrens, Snider, Wells, Marisnick and Lind with a rotation of Halladay, Stewart, Jenkins, Alvarez and Romero and Josh Roenicke closing looks to me like it would be a good bet for 95 losses.  That might be a fair assessment, but I am more sanguine. 

Nice to see BA shrewdly projecting Halladay as the top pitcher in the Jays rotation in 2013.

And they don't have any faith in ANY of the young arms that were with the Jays in 2009 (and will comprise the rotation in 2010)

Glad to see that Baseball America shares the same opinion on Sierra as I do, I don't see the hype.

One of the things I like best about Jake Marisnick is that we got him from the Yankees for Burnett, in a manner of speaking.  Thank you, New York! Was that not exactly how that scenario should have been played? It worked to perfection! If this young man keeps his head, the sky is the limit.  In five years we'll be saying, "We got Jake for AJ.  Now that was a good deal for both clubs."

BA's outlook is that he can probably hit 20-25 homers and be a solid defender, which could make him a valuable catcher even if he never improves his plate discipline.

  He hits home runs, plays good defence, but can't get on base.  Sounds like Rod Barajas, part two.

Which would make him serviceable, and also explains why the organization is looking for other options.

Some comments from the BA chat have been added in the story above.

Re: Arencibia ... BA's outlook is that he can probably hit 20-25 homers and be a solid defender, which could make him a valuable catcher even if he never improves his plate discipline.

It wouldn't make him a valuable catcher if he can't hit for a high enough average to offset the lack of walks. A .236 average in the PCL doesn't translate well into Major League performance. Yes, we can expect some improvement but there aren't too many examples of players with this profile of plate discipline/batting average making the jump to the Bigs with success.

http://major-league-baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/aroldis_chapman_profile

Just a side note on Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban Phenom... Apparently the jays were one of the teams who have planned to watch his throwing session today are the Jays.  He would be a good way to restock our farm system.

Chapman would also eat about $15-20 million.  Of course it would also be spread over a few years but still, a lot of cash for a prospect.  I'd love to see the Jays take the risk regardless as we need top end prospects to do well.

I think Chapman's looking for $50 million.

I think Chapman's looking for $50 million.

Then he'd better check in Doc's couch, because consensus is he'll be lucky to get $20m.  Boston have offered $15.5m.

If Boston has offered 15.5 he'll get more than 20.  But 50 would be alot... Daisuke hasn't earned his (IMO) and he came with marketing potential that Chapman doesn't have.

Sorry for spoiling the party of prospect discussion. But what's the point of discussing prospect? Will the discussed prospects evolve into true MLB player? Or just for the enjoyment of discussin. It seems taking the discussion as a culture of MLB.

The only one I don't really get is why Roenicke is in the top 10. I don't even really consider him young enough to be considered a prospect anymore.

It seems taking the discussion as a culture of MLB.

heh? What you discussin about?

Take the Arencibia ranking.  If he was ranked as the #2 prospect at mid-season of 2008, it would be within a zone of reasonableness.  He had done very well in the FSL at age 22 and was moving up.  Since then, he has hit .282/.302/.496 in New Hampshire and .236/.284/.444 in Las Vegas, and has had another injury. 

Which is more likely, that Arencibia will both stay healthy and develop reasonable control of the strike zone after the age of 23 or that Sierra will develop medium range pop (say 15-20 homers, 30 doubles) after the age of 20?  As far as I am concerned, it's a no-brainer.

A friend of mine saw Arencibia play 3 games in LV last season and was very impressed with him, particularly his defence. Thought he was close to being major league ready. Barring any injuries, I think another year at AAA will do it.

$20 M for Chapman ?  ... Why don't the Jays just send Beeston, AA and TLC on a Christmas vacation to Cuba where they could go knocking on Fidel's door and make arrangements to set up a baseball academy . Surely they would be able to maximize any returns on their investments and set in motion a "baseball diplomacy" that could lead to a return to "normalcy" in Cuba/US relations... I'm sure Obama would welcome any first steps in that direction as long as he wasn't perceived as having made them. Rogers/Blackberry could even tap into a new infrastructure/market ... At the least Beeston could come away with some primo stoggies for his cigar box 

...and has had another injury. 

Which is more likely, that Arencibia will both stay healthy...

Since when is a kidney operation an "injury"?

jgadfly, the stogies alone would justify the trip....

Which is more likely, that Arencibia will both stay healthy and develop reasonable control of the strike zone after the age of 23 or that Sierra will develop medium range pop (say 15-20 homers, 30 doubles) after the age of 20?  As far as I am concerned, it's a no-brainer.

I would say the chances of either happening are pretty low. Sierra is only 7 months younger than Snider. By the age of 20 they should be showing signs of power. He has never slugged over .400 yet in his pro career. Not saying it cant happen if if he gets stronger but your power lies in the speed of the bat. If his swing is flawed now it probably wont get much better. Its not like Sierra is a small boy to begin with either. It's also easier to coach a player on their approach at the plate than it is to teach them to have a powerfull swing.

There are plenty of young outfielders who do not show much power in the FSL and then develop it later.  Alex Rios and Grady Sizemore come to mind immediately.  Time will tell, in Sierra's case.

I agree time will tell, and hopefully im wrong, but I just have a feeling he is more Gabe Gross and less Alex Rios.

1. Kyle Drabek
2. Brett Wallace
3. Zach Stewart
4. Travis D'Arnard
5. Moises Sierra

Crazy to think that four of the top five prospects for the Jays weren't even part of the organization six months ago.

Even more crazy is that by this measure, 4 of the top 4 weren't part of the organization.

Though this is less crazy considering that the organization had one of the lower ranked farm systems in the league, and they subsequently traded two of the greatest players to ever wear it's uniform.

Take the Arencibia ranking.  If he was ranked as the #2 prospect at mid-season of 2008, it would be within a zone of reasonableness.  He had done very well in the FSL at age 22 and was moving up.  Since then, he has hit .282/.302/.496 in New Hampshire and .236/.284/.444 in Las Vegas, and has had another injury. 

Which is more likely, that Arencibia will both stay healthy and develop reasonable control of the strike zone after the age of 23 or that Sierra will develop medium range pop (say 15-20 homers, 30 doubles) after the age of 20?  As far as I am concerned, it's a no-brainer.

I had never been a huge Sierra supporter, but this is a very convincing argument.

Brett Wallace's ZiPS projections at BTF suggest that he may not be ready in 2010.

CHONE is even less sanguine about Wallace's immediate future.  Like I said when the acquisition was announced, Wallace's PCL numbers weren't very impressive (but his AA numbers were).  If the Jays send both Wallace and Snider to Las Vegas to start the season, it will however be a good show for 51s fans.

In that case, I'm pretty optimistic - ZiPS did a horrible job projecting the 2009 Jays.