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The first round of the draft is Monday night.  The Jays choice is still a matter of intense speculation.  The picks in front of the Jays appear to be up in the air and the Jays don't know who will be left when their first pick comes around.

Most experts have the Jays taking one of Michael Choice, college OF; Josh Sale, HS OF; Christain Colon, HS SS (but a Boras client); and Delino De Shields Jr, HS 2B.

Jim Callis at BA had produced three mock drafts.  In those three drafts Callis has the Jays taking Choice, Austin Wilson and in his latest De Shields Jr.

Keith Law at ESPN has also procuded three mock drafts.  He has the Jays selecting (from oldest to newest mock draft): Dylan Covey (HS P); Kartsen Whitson (HS P) and Christian Colon. 

Latest news is that the Jays are cooling on taking a high school pitcher in the first round.

The next 24 hours will likely be full of rumours and guesses and it is unlikely that we will know what the Jays will do until the draft unfolds.

Remember the Jays have a lot of picks.  They pick at 11; 34 (Scutaro); 38 (Paxton); 41 (Barajas); 61 (2nd round); 69 (Eliopoulos); 80 (Scutaro); 93 (3rd round); 113 (Barrett).  That is 9 picks in the first 113.

The quality of the draft is very even after the first four or so picks so the Jays selection at 34, 38 or 41 might be just as good as their number 11 pick. 

Latest rumours include:

Per Law the Jays are looking at Canadian catcher Kellin Deglan at pick 34.

From Bastian: Blue Jays had OF prospect Levon Washington at Rogers Centre for a pre-Draft workout today. He was 30th overall pick (Rays) a year ago


Peter Gammons has a good draft summary covering some general draft questions as well as a run down of the likely top selections in the draft.

2010 Draft - The Final Countdown | 58 comments | Create New Account
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ramone - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#216347) #

Law also had this at the bottom of his latest update:

" I've also heard Toronto on California prep arm Taijuan Walker in the sandwich round."

Mylegacy - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#216350) #
Good report.

My(legacy)'s choice is: Josh Sale (HS, OF) or Michael Choice (U, OF) - happy with both - my third choice would be Zack Cox (U, 3rd). However, I agree that this is a scouts draft and I trust our scouts - so if some name from left field comes up - I'll wait and see before I scream.

rtcaino - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#216352) #
ayjackson had a good point in another thread.

Bastian tweeted that the jays worked out Lavon Washington at the RC today.  He was drafted by the Rays in the first round last year but didn't sign.  It was a mistake because he's outside the top 50 this year in most rankings.  That said, it might be a good signability pick for the Jays at #38 - something to watch.

38, 69 and 113 are the picks where the Jays would not be compensated, if they fail to sign their pick.

ayjackson - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#216354) #

Apparently Law thinks Washington is still a tough sign.

Ron - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#216356) #

I can’t wait to watch the Draft Live on my big screen TV …. oh wait Rogers is still sitting on the MLB Network license. To meet CRTC regulations, I don’t understand why Rogers can’t just shove a bunch of old Jays games on it.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#216357) #
Sale sounds intriguing (possibly the best HS hitter in the draft) but I wonder if the Jays will be reluctant to take him after their experience with David Cooper, another non-athlete who came with a reputation as a very good hitter.
SJE - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#216363) #
Ron I echo your sentements, don't be throwing common sense items at this problem. I like the outfielder Sale too, I never heard that he was bad outfielder
sam - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#216367) #
I don't think you can rule out Austin Wilson just yet.
ayjackson - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#216370) #
I haven't seen Sale compared to Cooper before.
rtcaino - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#216373) #
I'd hope the Jays wouldn't avoid Sale because of the Cooper experience, just as I'd hope they wouldn't always draft a high school pitcher in the first round because of Roy Halladay. However, I believe Cooper had a couple years in college, which makes his case significantly different than Sale. Being an unspectacular athlete, a left handed outfielder and the best hitter out of high school is more reminiscent of a different Jays first round pick, a couple years prior to Cooper.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#216374) #
Sale and Cooper may well be two very different players. I just meant that both have been highly touted as hitters, but also carried reputations as being indifferent (at best) fielders at non-premium positions.

Here are a couple of lines from Kevin Goldstein at BP: "High school outfielder Josh Sale could actually go as high as No. 8 to Houston, and he's a backup choice for many teams between eight and 15. Some feel he's the best high school hitter in the draft, and he offers considerable raw power, but he's not an athlete and will likely be limited to left field."
rtcaino - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#216375) #
38, 69 and 113 are the picks where the Jays would not be compensated, if they fail to sign their pick.

More to my point is that I am curious to what extent the Jays will consider signability for those picks; would they pass on the BPA if they viewed him as risky to sign?
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#216377) #

My final dream picks scenario for tomorrow are:

11.) Austin Wilson - Love his tools/upside.

34.) Aaron Sanchez - Solid projectable HS pitcher with good stuff, command and three pitches.

38.) Chad Bettis - Potenial closer and signable.

41.) Kellin Deglan - Seems like a Travis D'arnaud clone.

Either way I am hoping the Jays get the most high end talent they can tomorrow. I know 38 is most likely will be an overdraft for a college pitcher due to signability issues, but that pick can stand as a safety net for the other picks.

sam - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#216378) #
Shoeless I like those picks. I like Gary Brown in there somewhere too. Mine would be
Austin Wilson
Lee (although he might be gone by then)
sam - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#216379) #
In terms of money, I'd imagine Wilson would be a difficult sign, but I think the Jays could get it done for slightly under $4 million. I'd imagine Deglan would sign for slot and Brown would sign for slightly more than slot (due to Boras) and then Lee would be a flyer who'd be a difficult sign but who knows.
sam - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#216381) #
I feel like Brett Eibner would also be someone to watch for with our one unprotected sandwich pick.
mendocino - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#216383) #

UPDATE (6/6 - 10:30 PM) - It looked for some time that Oakland was leaning heavily towards Zack Cox at 10. It now appears that their backup plan to the almost sure to be gone, Michael Choice is Christian Colon. At least that seems to be the indications coming from within the organization. So, there may be some plans shifting in Oakland, and I'd now say, according to some strong sources, that they are leaning toward Colon. Some sources believe the price tag of Cox may have a lot to do with this and that he could slide as far as the 20-25 range.

UPDATE (6/6 - 10:09 PM) - Around this time every year, we begin to hear about some potential compensation or second round targets, particularly for the big market clubs that have the money to spend. The Yankees and Red Sox seem to have a couple names they are both very fond of. The Red Sox are, according to multiple industry sources, said to be leading the list of clubs who are targeting Canadian prep catcher, Kellin Deglan. The Yankees have also shown interest, but given the fact that their second pick isn't until 89th overall he likely won't be in play. Many in the industry believe Boston will take him with one of their compensation round picks. Deglan is not a great example of Boston being able to flex their financial muscle, however. According to sources, he is perhaps the most signable player in the draft. A tougher sign is a prep player both the Yankees and Boston are heavily involved with as well. Sean Coyle, a 5-foot-9 high school infielder is said to be a potential plus hit tool guy, but also could command above slot money somewhere in the 2nd round. Boston and New York have been big players for him this spring and continue to be as we approach draft day.

UPDATE (6/6 - 8:05 PM) - As it has long been believed, Josh Sale appears to be the Astros man at 8th overall, barring a slide by one of the top two college southpaws. Sale's signability doesn't appear to be a big issue and Houston is not enamored with the remaining pitching options that figure to be available for them. Look for Michael Kvasnicka, Chad Bettis, and possibly Brandon Workman to be options with their later picks.

UPDATE (6/6 - 3:55 PM) - We are continuing to get word that the Mets are heavily leaning toward Justin O'Conner with the seventh overall pick. But, there is one condition to that. If Chris Sale or Drew Pomeranz gets to them, they will likely take one of the pair over O'Conner. This strengthening buzz also is beginning to make Zack Cox to the Athletics look more and more like a safe bet.

UPDATE (6/6 - 12:05 PM) - High school arms tend to slip when draft day actually arrives, and it appears that could happen for two of this year's top young arms. Both Dylan Covey and Karsten Whitson figure to go lower than originally projected, and according to sources, Covey may fall all the way to the back of the first round. Whitson has landing spots in the 15-20 range.


jerjapan - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#216384) #

My final dream picks scenario for tomorrow are:

38.) Chad Bettis - Potenial closer and signable.  I know 38 is most likely will be an overdraft for a college pitcher due to signability issues, but that pick can stand as a safety net for the other picks.

With so many picks to work with, choosing a signable reliever who can very move quickly through the minors is pretty attractive and could help us sooner rather than later, if our early season success holds and the rebuilding plan is accelerated.   

Marc Hulet - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#216385) #
Given the strengths of the Jays' system, I don't think fast-moving reliever is really something that's needed... there is a little bit of a backlog throughout the minors in the 'pen. I'd rather see the Jays go with some sleeper prep players with the multiple picks... I'd rather see them over-draft based a high schooler based on a scout's gut feeling.

As for Brown... not crazy about him. His stance at the plate is going to need some work (to quiet his feet) and he looks like a guy that's going to lose his speed pretty quickly (short legs). He's also too aggressive at the plate for a guy whose game is built on speed.

Some guys I like the look of are Seth Blair, Mel Rojas Jr., Pete Tago, Cameron Bedrosian, and Rob Rasmussen... but they're all probably over-drafts at No. 11... and might be attainable in the supp round.

Because of my disinterest in the picks in and around No. 11, I'd rather see the Jays go with a college arm like Deck McGuire, Asher Wojciechowski or Alex Wimmers and then spend a little extra money in the supp and second rounds to pick up some higher ceiling players.

Although the club will not (and should not) draft based on need, the club really needs some young arms in the lower minors and some position players that can move more quickly, especially in the outfield. Third base is another area that could use addressing.

Chris DH - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#216386) #

Seems like projections as of today have Harper, Machado/Taillon, Grandal, Pomeranz, C.Sale, O'Connor, J.Sale, Choice and Cox taken with the first 10.  I would be happy with a highschool guy at #11 like RHP Whitson, 3B-RHP Cowart, RHP Stetson Allie, RHP Dylan Covey, OF Austin Wilson...

I wouldnt be surprised if one of the supplemental picks was a signability pick - perhaps a projected reliever like RHP Chance Ruffin or LHP Kevin Chapman.

Perhaps Kellin Deglan at #34 is a strong possibility as it would appear - as posted - that he is very signable and the Red Sox select at #36...


TamRa - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#216387) #
I can't really narrow it to one guy, but here's my thought at each pick:

11. I really want Wilson here, but if Choice or Sale do slide here I'd be fine with that too. I also like Castellanos here or maybe Whitson. The guy I don't want is Colon. Our middle infield depth at the lower levels serves as a tiebreaker to me to go elsewhere.

34. Ill admit to some rather superficial reasons here but I'd love to see DeShields or Bedrosian here, although both have more going for them than just their name. Barring that, Loux maybe or maybe some guy who drops unexpectedly that we didn't expect to be around at this pick.

38. I'm stubborn. I want to re-draft Paxton if he's still on the board here. Yes this assumes we have permission to. Barring that, this is close enough to the previous pick for the same comments to apply here.

41. gonna join the crowd and lust for Deglan on this one. Of course anyone I mention on any of these sandwich picks are interchangeable but there are things to consider.

For instance, the Braves pick at 35 and are said to like Bedrosian, and the Astros pick at 33 and are said to like DeSheilds. So if we lose DD jr and we wanted Bedrosian, we'd pretty much need to go that way at 34.

Anyway, besides the guys already mentioned, Taijuan Walker, Aaron Sanchez, Kendrick Perkins, Addison Reed, and Chance Ruffin have all caught my eye for one reason or another.

TamRa - Sunday, June 06 2010 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#216388) #
Marc, I've been waiting for you to weigh in.

I share your opinion of Brown (though I'm FAR FAR less qualified to have an opinion) - what's your take on Wilson at #11?

Would it be a reasonable expectation that once you get past their first couple of picks that they would likely address that "young arm" situation with 2 or 3 picks? (assuming of course the right guys are still on the board)?

Do you see any possibility they try again on Paxton (or that they should)?

How do you like Castellanos and DeShields?

parrot11 - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#216390) #
I haven't really been keeping myself abreast of the draft this season. Does anyone have any links to sites with scouting reports so that I can get a feel for what the Jays got? I did a quick perusal, but it seems that this year's coverage has been much worse than previous years. Maybe that's just me.
mendocino - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#216391) #

Canadian Baseball Network

Bob Elliott's list of available canadians

Perfect Games Top 300 (may 15)

Perfect Games Top 50 with scouting reports plus a couple of extra reports on canadians

TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 02:55 AM EDT (#216392) #
Another intriguing name (in more ways than one) is this one - Evan Rutckyj

Not only is he Canadian, but apparently the Jays are familiar with him from as he pitched to Hill while he was rehabbing in Dunedin.

the thing I'm having trouble with is doing a mock that has us getting both Wilson and Deglan before the Red Sox get one of them without taking Wilson with the #11 pick, yet that's passing on several young HS pitchers that sound tantalizing.

The last rumor I heard, though, was that the Jays were moving away from going with a HS pitcher in the first round...
Marc Hulet - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#216395) #
I like Austin Wilson... but I don't know if the organization is going to blow that much on him as he's a very touch sign and will need a lot of $$ to sway him Stanford. I'd rather spread the money out considering that Wilson falls under the high-risk, high-reward category.

Personally, I haven't heard for sure but I don't think things are that friendly between the Jays organization and the Paxton family... considering how things went.

I like DeShields, but I see the him as more of a sandwich pick than someone I'd want to use an 11th overall pick on... as a result, I'm 99% sure he'd be gone by the Jays' second pick. I just don't think pure speed guys are good value in the top half of the first round unless they another good tool or two.

Castellanos doesn't excite me all that much; I'd rather have Chad Lewis (big on him; nice, quick hands and good bat speed) or Dominic Ficociello.

And just an FYI: FanGraphs will be live-blogging the draft.
John Northey - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#216396) #
I suspect Paxton would be willing to sign with the Jays if they came up with the cash he wants. In the end that is what matters - bs walks, cash talks.

It will be interesting to see if the Jays do make safe picks with the picks they could lose and tough signs for the other slots.
Gerry - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#216397) #
Bob Elliott's draft story.
Forkball - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#216398) #
Did Paxton sign the waiver for the Jays to draft him?

I'm interested in how many tough signs the Jays try to go after, including potentially Cox or Wilson at 11.  It wouldn't shock me if they took a chance on a few tough players in the first three rounds knowing that they could bump the pick out to next year if it didn't work out.  But you also hope that they have a good idea of what the player wants ahead of time and drafts accordingly.
Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#216401) #
Seems like projections as of today have Harper, Machado/Taillon, Grandal, Pomeranz, C.Sale, O'Connor, J.Sale, Choice and Cox taken with the first 10

If that happens, I won't be terribly excited about pick #11.  Maybe DeShields.  My guess is that one of Grandal, Josh Sale and Cox will be available.  We shall see.
ramone - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#216403) #

BA's newests mock just went up:

11. BLUE JAYS. This pick may come down to which outfielder the Astros leave on the board, Sale or DeShields—who ran a sub-6.3 second 60-year dash in a Toronto workout. The second option could be the best college pitcher available, which would be McGuire.
PROJECTED PICK: Delino DeShields.

brent - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#216404) #
It'll be more interesting to see who the Jays actually sign or not than who they actually pick. It would be intriguing to see if they want to dip into next year's draft (other teams have to be considering this too). I expect a lot of tough signability players drafted, but will the Jays get them into the fold?
Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#216405) #
On the BA mock, I'd definitely pick Grandal, subject to signability issues.
ramone - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#216406) #

Law's latest Mock has the Jays taking Choice:

11. Michael Choice, OF, Texas Arlington

Hearing all kinds of crazy rumors on Toronto, the latest being Levon Washington, although I imagine that's for the sandwich round. If they take Choice or Christian Colon it might be their only college pick for a few rounds as they go for high-upside athletes.

ayjackson - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#216407) #

Keith Law has Michael Choice making it to us at 11 in his final mock.  He comments that this could be the only college player in the first few rounds as we look for athletic upside.

I'm with him.  I think Choice or Cox would be taken if available at 11.  I think they may go for a tough sign at 11 if they're not.  they would negotiate hard with said tough sign (Wilson?) and gladly take that pick in next year's "very strong" draft if they aren't successful.

I say this because it seems that outside of 7-8 players, there isn't much difference in talent amongst the next 40-50 - so why not roll that pick forward into a strong draft.

ayjackson - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#216408) #

I guess if I copied and pasted, I might have beaten Ramone to the punch.

Moe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#216411) #
If the rumor is true that the Royals take Grandal at 4, with Chis Sale and Pomeranz there are 2 pitchers available for 5-10. With the Indians, Astros, Mets, and A's being linked to position players, I would not be surprised at all if Whitson were available for the Jays, in which case I really hope the take him.

And I don't really get the BA comment that the Jays would go for the "best college pitcher available, which would be McGuire." If there is one think the Jays don't need it's another almost ready arm. That would be a pick I'd consider a disappointment.
ayjackson - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#216413) #

My top three would be Choice, Cox and Whitson.  It sounds like the Jays have their eye on a lot of prep pitchers in the sandwich round and would prefer the good college bat at 11.  But I think Whitson may be a step above the rest of the prep pitchers and deserves consideration.

85bluejay - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#216414) #

I am so geeked for this draft because:

-no doofus and company drafting those those low ceiling suspects

-I've been so impressed by AA & company so far that I expect the best Jays draft in history

- The scouting director saying that the Jays are looking for athleticism & upside 

-The team investing so much in scouting, sending signals to fans that they'll be aggressive and last

yrs. debacle means the team needs to hit it out of the park.

I also think the Jays may go conservative with the 1st pick and then be aggressive afterwards - I don't

mind if drafting tough signs mean a couple of the protected picks fail to sign and we have those

picks next yr. - I remember an interview with AA last yr. where he indicated this would be the Jays SOP

going forward.

Anyways, I so excited that I'm afraid I might be disappointed.Go AA 

P.S - It will be fun comparing this yrs. picks with 2007 when we also that high expectations with so many

early picks.

Also, I'm curious to hear JP's critique of the Jays draft

85bluejay - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#216415) #


       I agree with you, If it's McGuire, I'll be disappointed - we don't need another almost ready mediocre arm.

DJR - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#216418) #
I'm thinking one reason you'd get Washington in for a workout is to compare him to DeShields if you were seriously considering jr at  #11.
Marc Hulet - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#216422) #
I'm really not excited with the Jays being linked to Washington. He has a terribly weak arm and really isn't that great of a hitter... even his speed has lost some value.
Chris DH - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#216424) #

I would think Washington would be targeted for the supplemental rounds as well.

Not sure how I feel about DeShields with the Jays 1st pick.  BA has him ranked 44th.  But hey, I am no scout! 

Also I have read some questions concerning Choice - one site in particular is concerned with his contact rate.  However, BA still has him ranked #10 overall as of this morning.

I was in the same boat concerning taking a college pitcher like McGuire but BA does have him ranked #9 overall as of this morning. 

If its about taking the best talent available, based on BA ranking, that should mean the Jays grab one of Cox, Colon, J.Sale, McGuire or Choice - whichever one falls to them...


TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#216425) #
-no doofus and company drafting those those low ceiling suspects

I know I should resist the temptation but, what the hell.

Low ceiling guys like Hill, Lind, Romero, Marcum, Cecil and Snider? Those low ceiling guys?

TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#216426) #

I'm with him.  I think Choice or Cox would be taken if available at 11.  I think they may go for a tough sign at 11 if they're not.  they would negotiate hard with said tough sign (Wilson?) and gladly take that pick in next year's "very strong" draft if they aren't successful.

I say this because it seems that outside of 7-8 players, there isn't much difference in talent amongst the next 40-50 - so why not roll that pick forward into a strong draft.

That's exactly my thinking as well. Has been all along which is why I was hard on Wilson. that said, a lot of mocks have Wilson's signability pushing him out of the first and if Choice is there, I could be okay with taking him and rolling the dice on Wilson being there at 34.

but not Cox, if what they say about his asking price is true, I'd only take him at 1 if I was resigned to punting the pick to next year because he's not worth what he's asking, IMO.

Also, I'd be cool with DeShields because I've developed a bit of a fetish for him as well.

TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#216427) #
I like DeShields, but I see the him as more of a sandwich pick than someone I'd want to use an 11th overall pick on... as a result, I'm 99% sure he'd be gone by the Jays' second pick. I just don't think pure speed guys are good value in the top half of the first round unless they another good tool or two.

Castellanos doesn't excite me all that much; I'd rather have Chad Lewis (big on him; nice, quick hands and good bat speed) or Dominic Ficociello.

As much as I like DeShields, I'm inclied to agree that I don't think he's really good enough for #11. He seems like Kenny Wilson with more polish and pedigree, or am I selling him short? On the third basemen, I don't know anything about Lewis but I like what I've read about Ficociello. I appreciate the specifics.
John Northey - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#216432) #
What about all those sign-ability picks the Jays made in the Ash days? Y'know, Wells, Rios, McGowan... During Ash's period the Jays were though to have very tight budgets and sign-ability was key. The key is to find the best player you can, based on your scouting and then to sign that player afterwards. An unsigned high potential is as useless as a Joey Lawrence.

Checking WAR vs other picks in the first round (easiest way to compare when mixing pitchers with hitters - scores are pre-2010)...

1995: Hallday #2 (47 vs Todd Helton 58)
1996: Koch #9 (4th overall pick), Joe Lawrence #21 (16th overall pick), Pete Tucci (did not make majors)
1997: Wells #4 (5th overall pick, only the guy who is #1 was available at #4, Lance Berkman)
1998: Felipe Lopez #12 (8th overall pick)
1999: Alexis Rios #7 (19th pick) - only Brian Roberts is ahead of him and on the board when Rios was picked.
2000: Dustin McGowan #6 (33rd pick), Miguel Negron (never made it, 18th pick)
2001: Gabe Gross #9 (15th pick)
2002: Russ Adams #26 (14th pick) lowest ranking guy who made the majors, only 2 guys picked before him didn't make it.
2003: Aaron Hill #1 (13th pick, tied with Nick Markakis)
2004: David Purcey #21 (16th pick), Zach Jackson #22 (32nd pick) both negative WAR
2005: Ricky Romero #11 (6th pick) and climbing fast (doubled his WAR so far this season would be #6 depending on what others have done so far)
2006: Travis Snider #11 (14th pick)
2007: Brett Cecil #10 (38th pick) - yet to reach are Justin Jackson (#45), Trystan Magnuson (#56), J.P. Arencibia (#21), Kevin Ahrens (#16)
2008: David Cooper yet to reach (#17) 9 from this class have made the majors
2009: Stephen Jenkins (20th) and James Paxton (#37) have yet to reach the majors, just like all but 2 (soon to be 3) guys from this draft class.
2010: ????

The main message is that draft picks in baseball are unpredictable. A pick who looks horrid after 4 years can shift to a very good pick within 2 years (Romero is the example here). Signable picks (such as Wells) could become great picks. Low ceiling picks (such as Hill) can also work out very nicely. Lets just hope it goes better than JP's big draft in 2007 (which still could be a great one if Cecil keeps this up and if just one of the others becomes a solid contributor).
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#216433) #

Anybody else think the Deshields rumor is a smokescreen? Houston according to the hotwire is looking for a CF and Deshields was their man at 18. Are we trying to force their hand and make them take Deshields at 8?

The way this draft is shaping up it seems that if even one player like Deshields gets overdrafted in front of us we get a significantly better player at 11. This is assuming we're not in on WIlson, as if we were this would be a moot point as he'll be there regardless it seems.

mendocino - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#216443) #

Jonathan Mayo

11. Toronto Blue Jays: Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchet HS, Wash.
Could go in a number of directions here, but the high schooler with the outstanding raw power makes some sense

Frankie Piliere

  • 11. Blue Jays | Deck McGuire (RHP) | Georgia Tech
    Toronto is absolutely going to be a wild card. Austin Wilson still is getting a lot of attention in this spot, but the Jays did not expect to get a crack at McGuire, so expect them to go with the Georgia Tech right-hander here.
  • ayjackson - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#216445) #
    Klaw   (4:06 PM)

    I think this is the worst crop of draftable talent since I got into the business full-time in 2002.

    Forkball - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#216446) #
    KLaw seemed pretty confident in Sale going #4.  Also:

    They (Toronto) are prepared to go over slot, and I predict they will end up in the top 3 teams in overall draft spending this year.

    Are we trying to force their hand and make them take Deshields at 8?

    Possibly, but it sounds like there's teams between Houston's picks that might take him.

    John Northey - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#216447) #
    Just looking at the list of picks over the past 15 years...

    15 drafts, 24 picks (8 from last 3 years)
    Top 10 picks: 4
    Top 10 ranked by WAR: 8 (Snider & Romero likely added to this this season)

    That isn't half bad. 10 out of 15 drafts the Jays first rounder is among the top 10 first rounders (or 10 out of 24 picks). Lets hope AA can continue and/or improve on that.
    ayjackson - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#216450) #

    Zach Cox is scaring teams off with his bonus demands.  If Choice is gone at 11 and Cox is there, I'd like us to take him.  We can play hardball due to the strength of next year's draft, our history of adhering to our valuation, and Cox's low leverage (faced with enterring a tough draft next year or signing this year for say, #5-7 money).



    PeteMoss - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#216451) #

    For what its worth... Kevin Goldstein's final mock draft has Pomeranz slipping to the Jays.

    11. Toronto Blue Jays: I had Josh Sale here three days ago, and that will still be the pick if he's available. Houston has bigger interest in Sale, but they have an interesting rivalry brewing with Toronto here, as if they don't take DeShields at eight, this is the team they're afraid might scoop him up. Plenty of athletes in the mix here, including the first potential landing spot for Austin Wilson, but Pomeranz can't fall forever . . . can he?

    Pick: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi

    binnister - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#216452) #
    I have a few questions:  If Austin Wilson wasn't strongly  committed to playing college ball this year, where would he be ranked?  I've seen 'Top-15 Talent', but that doesn't seem high enough for the Jay's to risk a pick on him.  If they couldn't sign him (and get the pick for next years reported stronger draft), could the Jay's PR system weather the storm?

    aaforpm - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#216453) #

    11.  Josh Sale:  He looks even more menacing at the plate than Snider.  He may be a left fielder at best but I can accept that when the bat looks that good.  If he's taken then I'd go for Austin Wilson just because he seems to offer the most upside. In case we can't sign him we can take a safer pick in next year's draft, which is supposed to be a lot stronger.  Although I wouldn't mind if they overpaid to sign Austin just so we can drool about his potential.  If not Austin, then I would take Whitson who looks like the second most likely ace coming out of this draft (behind Tallion) - solid cheese with movement + a tight slider (on a frame that still has room to fill out).  Re Deshields Jr:  I don't like the idea of taking a slap hitting 2B/CF with a weak arm at #11 just because his dad played pro bowl. It's not that I don't think he's got the potential to be a decent ballplayer...I just don't think he's worthy of a #11 pick.  I also really hope that we don't end up with one of these safe college pitchers that are all reported to feature a flat fastball....I can't see any of those guys being Yankee slayers........same goes for Zach Cox (weak looking swing for a slow footed 3B), Christian Colon (looks coordinated in all of the videos but I get concerned when everyone writes about his low ceiling), or Michael Choice (the guy struck out a ton in college - can't imagine how ugly it would get once he starts moving up the minor league system). 

    34.  Austin Wilson: If he's still available because no one else wants to pay or risk losing their pick than I'd take him here.   Otherwise I'd hope that Yordy Cabrera can slide down here.  As risky as he looks I can't help it notice that his swing reminds me of Vladimir Guerrero.  Yordy also looks extremely coordinated and smooth (at the plate, running the bases, and on the field) for a guy his size...natural athletes like that don't come around often.  Other guys that I'd take if they slipped here (ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE WISHFUL THINKING) would be Costellanos and his sweet looking swing or Peter Tago whose arm looks explosive (like a young version of Pedro).  If Kaleb Cowart lasted this long because of signability concerns, I wouldn't mind him either. 

    38.  Tyrell Jenkins:  Looks as good as Tago except even less refined...still really explosive looking delivery (whipping action) and fastball.  He's a two sport star and a lot of the scouts seem to be drooling over what he could do if he spent all his time concentrating on baseball.  He may be an expensive sign but again this is where we're supposed to spend our money to compete with the Yankees/Red Sox.  I'd rather see the money go on high risk prospects than relief pitchers or backups on a team that's not built to make the playoffs (I LOVE WATCHING THEM WIN BUT I JUST DON'T SEE IT HAPPENING BEFORE 2014).  If Jenkins isn't available I wouldn't mind going after other high ceiling high school arms like Mike Foltyniewicz, Aaron Sanchez,  or even Zach Lee (another high priced two sport star).  A.J. Cole gets a lot of press but I keep hearing about how his fastball flattens out a lot (which you can see in his video).   I know everyone wants Deglan but having watched some video on him he looks like his bat may be a bit slow (although since he's a Canadian kid I hope he can prove me wrong)

    FORGET ABOUT going for a safe sign here by choosing a college reliever....I'd rather sign risky picks here and overpay (although if Eibner is available here I wouldn't mind because he actually looks like he has top of the rotation potential).    I promise that if I like the pick here I'm grabbing tickets for the next home stand to help support Alex's cause. 

    41.  anybody that I mentioned under 34 or 38 that hasn't signed yet


    - Taijuan Walker - nice arm but very raw (fits the high ceiling high risk)
    - Garin Cecchini (take a risk and pay him since his injury will cause him to slip and make him available later than he should be)
    - Jacoby Jones (nice bat speed and athleticism from middle infielder)
    - Reggie Golden - athlete that reminds me of Kirby Pucket minus the arm
    - Ragira - nice level inside out swing (should be available late because he's with Boras)


    mendocino - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#216456) #


    Posted Jun. 7, 2010 4:47 pm by Jim Callis
    Filed under: Draft Dope

    My latest projections for the first round of tonight's draft:

    1. Nationals. Bryce Harper, c, CC or Southern Nevada

    2. Pirates. Jameson Taillon, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS

    3. Orioles. Manny Machado, ss, Brito Miami Private HS

    4. Royals. Chris Sale, lhp, Florida Gulf Coast

    5. Indians. Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Mississippi

    6. Diamondbacks. Barret Loux, rhp, Texas A&M

    7. Mets. Zack Cox, 3b, Arkansas

    8. Astros. Josh Sale, of, Bishop Blanchet HS, Seattle

    9. Padres. Karsten Whitson, rhp, Chipley (Fla.) HS

    10. Athletics. Michael Choice, of, Texas-Arlington

    11. Blue Jays. Christian Colon, ss, Cal State Fullerton

    12. Reds. Brandon Workman, rhp, Texas

    13. White Sox. Asher Wojciechowski, rhp, The Citadel

    14. Brewers. Matt Harvey, rhp, North Carolina

    15. Rangers. Jake Skole, of, Blessed Trinity HS, Roswell

    16. Cubs. Justin O'Conner, c, Cowan HS, Muncie, Ind.

    17. Rays. Reggie Golden, of, Wetumpka (Ala.) HS

    18. Angels. Peter Tago, rhp, Dana Hills HS, Dana Point, Calif.

    19. Astros. Delino DeShields, of, Woodward Academy, College Park, Ga.

    20. Red Sox. Kolbrin Vitek, 2b, Ball State.

    21. Twins. Alex Wimmers, rhp, Ohio State.

    22. Rangers. Bryce Brentz, of, Middle Tennessee State.

    23. Marlins. Luke Jackson, rhp, Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale

    24. Giants. Yordy Cabrera, 3b/rhp, Lakeland (Fla.) HS

    25. Cardinals. Yasmani Grandal, c, Miami

    26. Rockies. Kyle Parker, of, Clemson

    27. Phillies. Jesse Biddle, lhp, Germantown Friends HS, Philadelphia

    28. Dodgers. Drew Vettelson, of, Central Kitsap HS, Silverdale, Wash.

    29. Angels. Stetson Allie, rhp, St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio

    30. Angels. Dylan Covey, rhp, Marantha HS, Pasadena, Calif.

    31. Rays. Tony Wolters, ss, Rancho Buena Vista HS, Vista, Calif.

    32. Yankees. Christian Yelich, 1b, Westlake HS, Westlake Village, Calif.

    Moe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#216460) #
    Where does Loux come from all of the sudden? Not that I'd complain. This is the type of thing that could really help the Jays.

    Of course, if Pomeranz really fell to 11, I would be a bit surprised. The question is whether the Jays have enough info on him.
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