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Quick, who had the best outfield in baseball last year? Well, it wasn't the Blue Jays, but they were pretty darn close.

When all is said and done, the Blue Jays had a top 3 outfield last year, and were easily the second best hitting outfield in baseball, with the Rangers leading both categories. If you had taken wagers on this before the season, I think that you could have gotten pretty good odds, given that the Jays possessed a bottom third outfield in 2009 (at least I think this is reasonably true: Fangraphs doesn't seperate performance by position, so this year Aubrey Huff and his 5.7 WAR show up at both 1B and OF on the team leader boards despite a 60/40 playing time split, and the Jays led the bigs in value at 3B with Jose + E5. Similarily the Jays and the Rays are pretty close in the outfield this year, and Ben  Zobrist had more at bats in the infield than Jose did, but probably not enough to move the Jays ahead of the Rays into second spot.) Anyway, how did they do it?

 

Well, the short answer is Jose Bautista. As you may have heard by now, Bautista was one of the 10 best position players in baseball this past year, and one of the best 3 or so in the American League. It also didn't hurt that Vernon Wells had his best season since 2006, and that the left field platoon performed reasonably well. Throw in a general lack of injuries (Snider and Lewis both missed time, but their injuries didn't overlap) and the fact that Wells and Bautista were always in the lineup as the team's two best hitters, and the result is that the Jays outfield was manned almost exclusively by the abovementioned four players - they accounted for just over 88% of the playing time in the outfield. DeWayne Wise filled in as the fourth/fifth outfielder later in the season accounting for another 5.5% of the team's outfield innings. Adam Lind played a bit of left during interleague play, and Mike McCoy, Jeremy Reed and John McDonald got the rest of the innings. Let's look at the individual players now.

Jose Bautista

Again, Jose's season is probably familiar to most of you, but the broad strokes of it are that he both upped his walk rate and cut his k rate by about 5% each. He also dramatically altered his swing, and as a result was one of the biggest fly ball hitters in baseball (though this approach didn't work as well for Aaron Hill.) Normally hitting a ton of fly balls is not an optimal offensive strategy: they get turned into outs with much greater frequency than every other type of batted ball. The only other players to loft more than 50% of their balls into the outfield - Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Alfonso Soriano, Hill, and Johnny Gomes - weren't exactly a murderers row this year. In some senses Bautista was very lucky, as slightly more than 1 in 5 of his fly balls went over the fence, a proportion that is almost twice what we would expect from a "normal" player.  If you watched Jose play day in and day out though it would be hard to call what he did a fluke though, as most of his home runs were bombs. Throw in the fact that 53 of his 54 home runs were to left field, and most of those in the short corner, and it becomes easier to fathom how he hit all of them. Jose was also, if anything, slightly unlucky when it came to picking up hits on balls in play, with a very poor .233 BABIP. As I've mentioned though, because he hit so many fly balls and comparatively fewer line drives, this number is only slightly instead of massively unlucky. This season also leads one to wonder what 2011 will hold for him. It would be surprising if he hit 50 home runs again, just because no one regularly hits 50 homers these days, but unless you think this season was a total fluke, there is no reason to think Bautista couldn't settle in as a .265/.365/.520 hitter with 30 or so home runs.

Vernon Wells

Vernon rebounded from being one of the worst players in baseball in 2009, and only slightly better than that in 2007 and 2008, to have a very good 2010. The key to this was... well, he hit fewer singles and more doubles and home runs. That was about the only difference between 2009 and 2010. On a per at bat basis he struck out slightly more and walked slightly more (0.5% and 0.7%) and his BABIP was actually down a bit, to .272 from .278 the year before. But in 40 fewer at bats he had 26 fewer singles, 7 more doubles, the same number of triples and 16 more home runs. So in fewer at bats he added 55 more total bases, and his slugging percentage jumped by 115 points. Throw in a slightly higher batting average and a couple of more walks and HBP and that's Vernon's season. Can he repeat it in 2011? Well, I don't see any fundamental reason why not. He wasn't particularly lucky on balls in play, and only a tick above average in HR/FB%. He may hit a couple fewer home runs I suppose. His defense, subjectively, also looked better this year, and UZR agrees, though he still rates as a poor defender, and there isn't anyone in the system that is going to push him out of CF anytime soon anyway.

Travis Snider

Travis Snider's 2010 was a decidedly up and down one. He struggled mightily at the beginning of April before turning things around towards the end of the month and into May. However a wrist injury, coupled with an uneccesarily long rehab stint, saw him miss almost three months before returning to the bigs. He struggled again before turning things on in September and October, where he hit 6 home runs in 99 plate appearances... while striking out 24 times and walking twice. While Snider's final line wasn't overly impressive, there are positive signs. He struck out slightly less than in the past, albeit with fewer walks. He also murdered the ball, with a line drive percentage that would have about tied for the Major League lead had he played a full season. He still has some work to do on his game, but he is only 22. His defense could probably stand to improve also, though he's graded out at roughly average so far in his career according to UZR. I imagine forecasts for Snider in 2011 will vary wildly, but in my mind he still possesses star potential, and hasn't done anything on the field to change my perception. He may have to start 2011 strong though to avoid unfavourable comparisons to the last two serious Jays hitting prospects - Alex Rios and Adam Lind - who both were up and down in their first few years in the league.

Fred Lewis

After being picked up for essentially nothing from the Giants at the beginning of the year, Lewis was one of the pleasant surprises on the Jays this year, and after Travis Snider got injured played full time in left field while hitting leadoff. He performed reasonably well in this role, hitting slightly above league average while posting reasonable, but hardly outstanding, slugging and on base percentages. Lewis strikes out a fair amount and doesn't walk a ton, and while he has doubles power (31 in 428 AB) he doesn't homer a ton (8) or steal a whack of bases (17/23, easily leading the team.) He is also reliant on a high batting average on balls in play, with a career mark of .340. Given that he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, this number seems likely to fall as he ages and his wheels begin to go. Lewis is also a mediocre defender - probably not as bad as his 2010 numbers, but not particularly good in the first place. He doesn't have a strong arm, and cannot play CF, struggling there in his few fill-in opportunities. His 2010 ended in September with surgery to remove a bunion, but by this point he was already being supplanted by Travis Snider in left. Lewis has been adamant that he wants to start, and it seems like this is unlikely to happen in Toronto going forward. He is still under team control, but with Snider ahead of him in left and with his lack of versatility, a non-tender or trade seems like the most likely possibility.

DeWayne Wise

Wise filled in admirably as the fourth outfielder in his second go round with the team, playing a bit in each of the outfield spots. A good defender but not much with the bat, he hit well enough as a fill in guy, though is unlikely to repeat his modest performance going forward. I suppose the team could bring him back in a similar limited capacity, as he can play all three outfield spots and has a bit of speed, but I would be surprised if the club didn't fill the fourth OF role with someone from within the system.

2011

Jose Bautista's contract is the biggest question in the outfield going into 2011. I imagine he will sign this year, as the Jays almost never go to arbitration, but whether its 1 year for 8 million or 3/32, 4/45, whatever, is anyone's guess. I think it's unlikely the team locks him up long term unless he wants to take a discount to stay in Toronto. He has to know that this is going to be perhaps the one chance for him to cash in with a long term contract, and he is a free agent after this season, so with a good year he could command big money. The Jays in turn would, I imagine, be reluctant to give him a huge contract after a career year. There is also some question as to whether Bautista plays third or right going forward. Unless the team swings a trade and brings in another outfielder, I don't think there is anyone in the system that is going to be good enough to warrant full playing time in the outfield in 2011. Mind you that's also true of 3B, where Encarnacion is the only other option. Elsewhere in the outfield Vernon and Snider are almost certain to return in CF and RF, while, as I've mentioned, I'd be surprised if Wise and Lewis were back, though Wise has a better shot. Spring training should determine who gets the fourth outfielder's job. Eric Thames and Darin Mastroianni are the only guys in the system that would realistically have a chance, and while Thames is the superior hitter, he can't (or shouldn't) play CF. I also get the sense that Mastroianni isn't held in particularly high regard in the organization, so even though he profiles as an ideal fourth outfielder (a singles hitter with blazing speed, who walks, steals bases at a high rate, and plays good defense across the outfield) the team may look outside the system to bring in someone on a one year deal.

2010 Blue Jays Year in Review: Outfielders | 50 comments | Create New Account
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ayjackson - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 10:59 AM EST (#225298) #

To give some additional context to BABIP, it might be useful to include a FB:GB ratio next to line drive rate, because, and correct me if I'm wrong, fly balls lead to more outs on balls in play than ground balls.

I'm not sure that the organization doesn't value Maestro, I think they had an interest in having a winning team in NH last year and I'm not sure they had any other good options there for CF.  His line in winter ball so far is:

89AB, .427/.500/.551, 13.5% walk rate, 15.4% K rate, 9/12 SB

I think him and Emaus will each be given opportunities to win spots on the bench in ST.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 11:52 AM EST (#225301) #

the team may look outside the system to bring in someone on a one year deal

A.A. will be looking for a long-term replacement in C.F. regardless of who is in the minors.   Gose won't be ready for 3+ years and it's unlikely anyone else will be ready sooner.   Mastroianni is not that answer, his value will be in a trade.   Eric Thames, finally turning his career around by learning to stay healthy, may just allow A.A. trade Travis Snider.   If A.A. gets someone better even, Bautista moves out of RF to 3B.

cybercavalier - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 12:14 PM EST (#225305) #
Thanks Anders.

Just off the top of my head, is it possible to trade for young outfielders from the Pirates, given their influx of young players from their minors and other MLB each season? I was thinking John Bowker.

And I wished Alex Rios is still a Jays; but I know it is hindsight.

MatO - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 01:05 PM EST (#225308) #

And I wished Alex Rios is still a Jays; but I know it is hindsight.

His last 4 months of the season were pretty crappy.  His OPS by month were .760   .735   .712  .645.  The bad Rios was rearing its ugly head again.

finch - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 01:43 PM EST (#225311) #
On MLBTR, it was mentioned that AA has inquired about the availability of Zack Greinke and Alex Gordon.

Not sure what to make of the inquiry or what it would take to get those two in a package deal but AA has me excited about baseball in November while the rain pours down in Vancouver.

Would Cecil, Arencibia, Zach Stewart and Jimenez enough to get it done?
Dave Till - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 01:45 PM EST (#225312) #
Just off the top of my head, is it possible to trade for young outfielders from the Pirates, given their influx of young players from their minors and other MLB each season?

Given what happened with Bautista, my guess is that the Pirates front office is now no longer taking phone calls from any number in the 416 (or 647) area code. It was bad enough to see one ex-Pirate become a star in a Blue Jays uniform; if it happened again, Pirates fans would likely storm the barricades, and would then be faced with a difficult question: after tarring and feathering, do they throw the Pirate front office into the Allegheny River, the Monongahela River, or the Ohio River? Decisions, decisions...

My prediction of what will happen to Bautista in 2011 is this: walks. Lots and lots of walks. After reviewing game footage, other American League teams will likely instruct their pitching staffs to never throw a fastball over the plate to Bautista ever again. Since I assume that Bautista can cover the plate well enough to spoil off-speed pitches on the corners, and since he has good plate discipline, he'll likely get a lot of free passes.

But it might get to him, the way it got to Carlos Delgado after his monster year: game after game of seeing nothing good to hit, ever. This season will be a lot less fun for him. But Vernon is likely to get a whole lot more RBI opportunities.
Hodgie - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 02:22 PM EST (#225315) #
Curious Richard. Why do you believe that Thames would make Snider expendable? Thames is more than a year older than Snider, was two to three years older than Snider at each respective level in the minors and is still probably a year away from even challenging for a position on the big club much less forcing a trade of the bat with the most potential in the organization? I like Thames (almost) as much the next guy but has Snider's star really fallen so low? Don't forget, Travis will open next season as a 23 year old with 612 MLB ABs to his credit, roughly the same age that Thames played AA last season.

If I had to gamble on whether Snider would lead the team in WAR next season or be traded to make room for Eric Thames, I would place my money on the former.
Dewey - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 02:40 PM EST (#225320) #
Exactly, Hodgie.  Why oh why is anyone fantasizing about trading Snider?    Travis Snider?   Travis?
cybercavalier - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 02:44 PM EST (#225321) #
After reading posts here and MLBTR, I still wonder what benefits do Greinke and Gordon bring to the Jays?

Mat, I sometimes do show nostalgia in former Jays minor and major league players (Thigpen, David Smith etc. Erik Kratz notwithstanding). Shall we consider Reed Johnson to bat leadoff for the Jays again? Chuckles.

I concur Dave's prediction: Bautista may need to change his approach to his batting game as pitcher will mostly pitch to him differently. I recall he shot a opposite field HR in September. Can he keep up opposite field power when he is pitched away and pull the ball foul when pitched inside?

For Pirates, I think they can take notes from the Rays' model of management. Given the success of Bautista, there should still be other good Pirates. It hurts to see young players like Jeff Clement, Brandon Moss and Bowker being shipped between MLB and minor league teams.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 02:47 PM EST (#225322) #
The 50% projection for Travis Snider is basically Willie Horton (the Tiger, not the Michael Dukakis one), and it is unlikely that anyone will give you that kind of value back.  You are more likely to get value for Brandon Morrow or Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil than for Snider.
smcs - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 02:48 PM EST (#225323) #
I think we all just forget how young Snider still is.  He's likely going to be the youngest player on the Jays next year.  The guy who has a shot to make him not the youngest would be Adeiny Hechavarria.  The only pitching prospect that would have had a chance at cracking the 2011 roster who was younger would have been Tim Collins.
Hodgie - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 02:54 PM EST (#225324) #
"Would Cecil, Arencibia, Zach Stewart and Jimenez enough to get it done?"

I sure hope not. Call me a fanboy if you must, but I am not sure I would trade Cecil straight up for Greinke at this point. Forgetting salary for a moment, just compare Cecil's age 22-23 season (2010) with Greinke's 23 year old season (2007). The only area where Greinke did markedly better than Cecil at the same age was in K/9, all of their other statistics are very similar. What's more, Cecil faced NYY, BOS and TB 13 times this season, three teams that ranked 1, 2 and 3 respectively in runs scored.

Unless Greinke has another 2009 in his arm, it is quite conceivable that Cecil delivers nearly the same value as Greinke as early as next season. Of course, I believe Greinke is closer to his 2007-2008 + 2010 versions than his truly magnificent 2009. A fine pitcher never the less, but hardly one to give up so much for.

As for Alex Gordon, I don't believe in giving up multiple B to B+ prospects for a soon to be 27 year old reclamation project.

cybercavalier - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 03:01 PM EST (#225325) #
Concur with Dewey. After following the Fisher Cats playoff offensive stats  (New Hampshire were unable to score until the ninth inning of game three, they had 29 scoreless innings in the series up to that point. : from a previous BBox thread), patience is still needed for the Jays bats in the minor.
Dave Till - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 03:21 PM EST (#225327) #
Travis Snider is this close to becoming a top-class power hitter. Trading him would be wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong and wrong.
Jevant - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 03:36 PM EST (#225328) #
Just imagine how fun it would be to have Manny hitting before or after Jo-Bau as well...Vernon could lead the league in RBIs.
dan gordon - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 03:43 PM EST (#225330) #

Regarding Greinke, I would be careful not to overvalue his outstanding 2009 season.  Have a look at his numbers in 2007, 2008, 2010.  In those 3 years, his WHIP, hits/9 innings, K/9 innings, BB/9 innings were all virtually identical, and his ERA's were similar.  The outlier appears to be the 2009 season, when everything was far, far better.  Given that 3 out of the last 4 seasons were of a completely different level of performance than 2009, and were almost identical, I think those 3 years represent what you will get from Greinke.  Also, don't forget he is a FA after 2012, so you're only getting him for 2 years.

Gordon doesn't interest me much at all.  He has been in and out of the big leagues for 4 seasons now, and is not only not progressing, but he has been getting worse.  He can't hit lefties at all (career .215 batting average vs southpaws), is not a good defender, and his career BA away from his home park is .235.  He has had over 1,400 AB's at the major league level, and he will be 27 next season.  I think he has reached the point where I think the possibility of him becoming a really good major league player, while not zero, is very, very small.

cybercavalier - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 04:14 PM EST (#225333) #
Gordon was touted as one of the top prospects from the Royals farm years ago. Sometimes I wonder how one defines a rushed or busted prospect. I recall Luke Hochevar, another first rounder from draft; Luke has compiled 5.60 ERA and 1.457 WHIP so far in his MLB career.
ayjackson - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 05:34 PM EST (#225334) #
Fred Lewis and cash for Alex Gordon seems fair to me.  This guy has maybe less lustre on his star than Brandon Wood.  They're both one year away from Chris Lubanski/Bryan Bullington status as complete washouts.
Thomas - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 06:08 PM EST (#225335) #
Fred Lewis and cash for Alex Gordon seems fair to me.

AA has done some great things as GM, but getting Alex Gordon for a player the team will probably non-tender would be near the top of the list. In over 1,000 minor league at-bats, nearly all of them at Double-A or higher, he has a career .321/.438/.578 line. Fred Lewis's minor league OPS is .806, over 200 points lower. Lewis is a corner outfielder with poor defense with a career major league OPS of .766. Gordon (the "wash out" with no shine left) is younger, has a career major league OPS of .733 and can play 3B, as well as LF probably better than Lewis can.

TamRa - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 06:13 PM EST (#225336) #
I'm with Hodgie re Grienke - I'll pass on any price they woold accept.

I'm quite interested in a run at Gordon - i don't think he's as far fallen as AYJ suggests, but i think the price could be well into the range i'd be willing to pay.

Another name mentioned on MLBTR today - Gordon Beckham is said by some to be at least on the table for the White Sox - not sure if he'd still be overpriced but...worth talking about.


Flex - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 06:36 PM EST (#225337) #
Let's consider the fact that the only reason we're talking about Grienke or Gordon is that Bob Elliot wrote that the Jays have inquired about him. It's very likely that information came from Kansas City and for the very obvious reason that they're trying to build a market for these commodities. I don't really believe they're under serious consideration.
Magpie - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 07:27 PM EST (#225340) #
I still wonder what benefits do Greinke and Gordon bring to the Jays?

Greinke, OK. But I'm wondering what benefits Alex Gordon brings anyone.
ayjackson - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 07:38 PM EST (#225341) #

In over 1,000 minor league at-bats, nearly all of them at Double-A or higher, he has a career .321/.438/.578 line. Fred Lewis's minor league OPS is .806, over 200 points lower. Lewis is a corner outfielder with poor defense with a career major league OPS of .766. Gordon (the "wash out" with no shine left) is younger, has a career major league OPS of .733 and can play 3B, as well as LF probably better than Lewis can.

I agree with all of that.  Now tell me who is going to give up anything of worth for a 27 year old 3Bman who's defence is worse than Encarnacion and has a .733 OPS (.660 vs LHP) over 1641 career ML plate appearances?  They don't wany him, we should give them something that we don't want....like cash!

And most of those minor league at bats at Double A or higher came as a 25 year old and a 26 year old in the Texas League and Pacific Coast League.  So I'll say again, he's one year away from complete wash out.  Does that mean I think it's a lost cause?  No, but he's not worth much of value and shouldn't command much on the trade market.

Mylegacy - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 08:33 PM EST (#225342) #
I'm starting to get that warm all over feeling - like when I first met SWMBO (She Who Must Be Obeyed), or had my first glass of 12 year old single malt - every time I hear something new about Adam Loewen. My little grey cells (gray cells if I was a 'Merican) tell me that before the All-Star break Adam will be toiling in our outfield, at 1st or DH.

Just sayin'.
Thomas - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 09:59 PM EST (#225345) #
I agree with all of that. Now tell me who is going to give up anything of worth for a 27 year old 3Bman who's defence is worse than Encarnacion and has a .733 OPS (.660 vs LHP) over 1641 career ML plate appearances? They don't wany him, we should give them something that we don't want....like cash!

What benefit does Fred Lewis give KC? If I'm Dayton Moore, the chance that Gordon makes strides towards becoming the ballplayer everyone thought he would become is more valuable to my team than Fred Lewis becoming my team's starting left fielder or complaining when he's not.

ayjackson - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 10:43 PM EST (#225347) #
It's not about Fred Lewis.  I wasn't making a serious trade offer.  Fred Lewis is something we have no use for, and thus is what I'd be willing to give up for Gordon.
Alex Obal - Thursday, November 11 2010 @ 11:43 PM EST (#225350) #
Apropos of, uh, we're talking about the Royals: comedy.
Richard S.S. - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 12:04 AM EST (#225351) #

Cot's ($78.7MM) http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html minus monies owed to Ryan, Halladay and Ruiz (approx. $16.4MM) minus Free Agents: Downs, Gregg, Overbay, Buck and Olivo (approx. $18.15MM) minus possible non-tenders: Accardo, Tallet, Encarnacion, Lewis, Wise, etc. (approx. $8.83MM) plus normal salary increases (approx. $12.5MM) plus arbitration increases of tenders (approx. $13.3MM) equals approx. $61.12MM.   This leaves approx. $17.58MM in salary space just to equal the initial mumber ($78.7MM).   An additional amount of approx. $1.85MM (2009 levels) to approx. $19.28MM (2008 levels) to approx. $41.3MM (projected $120.0MM) could also be available as needed.

A.A. needs: Bullpen, Closer, 1B, 3B, OBP.   Why Greinke?   Boston won't have him, New York won't have him, we will.   If our starters don't have to pitch Ace,2,3,4, but can pitch 2,3,4,5 they should be much better.   Any Aces that develop the next two years only make our chances in the post-season that much better (Ace, Ace, 2, 2, 2 or Ace, Ace, Ace, 2, 2).   Greinke will add less than an actual $13.5MM to our salary totals (all depending on salary values of traded players).   It sends a message to the Players and to the Fans that we are serious.   Can you re-sign / extend contract of Greinke? Easily, you need to win, and just aquiring Greinke could do that.

If, in addition to Greinke, A.A. acquires another piece, and fills in the remaining holes with suitable replacements, we might be in the post-season next season.   If A.A. can do more, our chances get much better.   If, next off-season, A.A. can add another 2 pieces, we will make the post-season.

If you go after Greinke with/without Gordon, why not add Yoakim Soria?

stevieboy22 - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 12:31 AM EST (#225352) #

I'm not interested in giving up much for Greinke....

First off, he has had 1 outstanding season, 1 pretty good season, and a bunch of blah seasons, all while pitching in the AL Central (granted he doesn't get to pitch against his own ball club.)

Secondly, his social disorder is a real concern. How much would it suck if the Jays gave up Drabek, and Greinke didn't feel like pitching anymore because of the pressure? He was having a hard time pitching in front of people in KC....  Really? The last time I checked no one went to games there, what's gonna happen if he needs to pitch in the playoffs in front of a national audience? Just saying... It's a concern... Perhaps something KC recognizes..

Thirdly, the guy you might give up could easily be better than Greinke as soon as 2011.... In fact, some of the names being mentioned had better 2010's...

Bottom Line: Greinke isn't Roy Halladay. He is not a sure thing. Does he have great stuff? Yes, so does Drabek, but Drabek will be cheap for 6 year of control, and Greinke will be expensive for 2 years of control.....

ayjackson - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 12:38 AM EST (#225353) #

John Tolisano had a nice day in the desert.  A homerun and three walks in four trips to the plate.  In very limited action, Tolisano has put up a .385/.526/.692 line.

McDade had another good day as well - double and single in five trips - and sports an impressive .355/437/.526 line in 97 plate appearances.

Farina continued his mastery of the thin desert air too.

92-93 - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 02:16 AM EST (#225356) #
Brett Cecil for a year at the MLB minimum and then 4 years of arbitration (assuming Super 2 status) is more valuable than 2 years of Greinke at 13.5m each. The 3 guys you added to the trade, AJ Jimenez, JP Arencibia, and Zach Stewart should be close to enough themselves for Greinke. Adding Cecil would be ludicrous.
John Northey - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 07:04 AM EST (#225357) #
If we must trade for an ace I wouldn't be calling KC (although it never hurts to see if they want something small enough to make it a steal) but chase down known salary dumpers (OK, KC is one of those) such as Florida.

Josh Johnson costs $8-$14-$14 the next 3 years and has been pitching like an ace the past 2 with 2 other partials at a very high level. Florida is known for dumping salaries so why not check? 3 years of control for a handful of prospects might work as it has in the past. Ramirez (SS but could move to 3B) might be available as well (11/15/15/16). Give up a few controllable assets and you might just hit something while covering the competition window of opportunity (next 3-4 years). It would be very expensive (to put it mildly) but at least quality is there and Florida can finish sub-500 without paying $20-$30 mil to two guys.
scottt - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 07:22 AM EST (#225358) #
We're likely looking at an outfield of Snider, Wells, Bautista plus a reserve guy.

Snider should improve and we can hope that the other two have repeat seasons, but the odds of that are probably not very high. Wells hasn't really hit for average in a long time. Still, it's an interesting outfield to watch at the plate.



Magpie - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 10:38 AM EST (#225363) #
[Wells].. one of the worst players in baseball in 2009, and only slightly better than that in 2007 and 2008

Wells actually played pretty well in 2008 - he hit about as well as he did in 2010 - the problem was the two month long stints on the DL, with the leg injury and the wrist injury. And one wonders if there was some carryover effect from the injuries the following year - the wrist wasn't hurting anymore, but it wasn't yet as strong as it could be. And leg injuries can make one just a little tentative about running - the instinct is to be careful, which must be overcome.
Anders - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 11:24 AM EST (#225366) #

Wells actually played pretty well in 2008 - he hit about as well as he did in 2010 - the problem was the two month long stints on the DL, with the leg injury and the wrist injury. And one wonders if there was some carryover effect from the injuries the following year - the wrist wasn't hurting anymore, but it wasn't yet as strong as it could be. And leg injuries can make one just a little tentative about running - the instinct is to be careful, which must be overcome.

Whoops! May have written that one a little too quickly.

whiterasta80 - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 11:51 AM EST (#225367) #

Soria would definitely be the target if we're poaching from the Royals.  Yes I like Gordon, but he isn't ever going to be the best 3B in baseball. Soria is in the discussion for best closer in baseball.  Greinke may not be a top 5 pitcher, but he's probably top 10 and significantly better than anyone on our staff IMO.

I said this on another website but my deal would be Marcum, Aaron Hill, Rzep, and Stewart for Soria and Greinke

That gives the Royals both proven performance, and potential back in the deal, while minimizing the salary impact on the Jays. Greinke takes over as the ace (and rest assured he is better than Marcum) while Soria becomes our closer for years to come.  Hill is somewhat productive, but I'd rather a high OBP, slasher take his place (actually I'd give Emaus a chance in that role, or just bring O-Dawg back).

I'm not worried about anxiety disorders out of Greinke, I think he'll be fine.

Magpie - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 12:09 PM EST (#225369) #
For those of you who like the Twitter (I do not tweet my own self, being enough of a twit already, but I find it useful and entertaining as all-get-out), Ricky Romero has now become a Twit. Ricky credits Travis Snider with helping him make his Twitter debut - Travis appears to be a little more web-savvy. Snider on his page proudly notes that he has been blessed by "a great family, great friends, and the ability to eat." As I always say, the kids are allright.
zeppelinkm - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 12:45 PM EST (#225372) #

No offence Whiterasta80, but I would freak out if I woke up one day and saw Marcum, Stewart, Rzep, AND Hill were traded for a pitcher who is only ever so slightly better than Shaun, and an ace reliever. Sure, Soria is brilliant. But that trade is a massive overpay.

Stewart could end up being better than any of them. If Hill rebounds and gets back to lining the ball rather then popping up the ball, he's worth more than just Soria.

92-93 - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 01:07 PM EST (#225373) #
Snider better slow down with those cheeseburgers if he wants to stay in the OF long-term.
Mylegacy - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 02:11 PM EST (#225374) #
John Sickels has his first Blue Jay's blog up. Go comment.
dan gordon - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 02:31 PM EST (#225375) #
I wouldn't make either of the trades proposed here with KC.  Marcum doesn't get enough respect, and I'm beginning to think Cecil doesn't either.  If you look at Marcum from 2007, 2008 and 2010 and compare those 3 years to Greinke in those 3 years, Marcum is 34-21 with an ERA of 3.72, while Greinke is 30-31 with an ERA of 3.80.  Marcum, of course, has a tougher schedule to contend with, and will be much cheaper.  Marcum was out for 2009, when Greinke had his outstanding season.  As I indicated earlier, Greinke's numbers in the other 3 years were virtually indentical and so I think it is very likely that what you will get from Greinke is the 2007, 2008, 2010 version.  Greinke will make much more than Marcum the next 2 years, and they both become free agents in 2013.  From what I have read, it seems that Marcum is regarded as a leader by the younger guys on the pitching staff.  I'd rather have Marcum than Greinke.  If I thought it was likely that Greinke could come up with a year similar to 2009, it would be different, but that season looks very much like a one time thing. 
iains - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 02:51 PM EST (#225376) #
Reading Snider's posts on twitter, I predict he shows up at spring training at 280 pounds.
92-93 - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 03:19 PM EST (#225377) #
Bautista may not be long for the outfield - E5 was claimed off waivers by Oakland today.
Jonny German - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 03:29 PM EST (#225378) #
Also, Wise & Tallet outrighted to Vegas and opted for free agency.
earlweaverfan - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 03:41 PM EST (#225379) #
Bautista may not be long for the outfield - E5 was claimed off waivers by Oakland today.

Sigh - I think EE could turn out to be our biggest source of regret, maybe not at the Pittsburgh level, but near enough.

My bet?  The Jays go for someone at second and then shift Hill to 3B. 

TamRa's excellent blog:  The Southpaw has suggested for the Jays a very interesting Japanese middle infielder just coming onto the market and who,  it sounds like, would work wonders with this solution: Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

This guy could be a classic lead-off hitter with high average, OBP and speed, while playing impeccable defence.  On this, or a similar, basis, Bautista would stay right where he is.
dan gordon - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 04:17 PM EST (#225386) #

Rotoworld is saying the posting fee for Nishioka could be more than $4 million.  Salary on top of that.  The Dodgers and Giants are interested in him.  He led Japan's Pacific League with a .346 BA last year.

I think Encarnacion had a reasonable shot at 30 HR's if he had stayed with Toronto next year.  Oakland's park will hurt him.  I guess the Jays didn't like the salary he might get in arb - Rotoworld says he might get close to $6 million.  So are they going to move Bautista or Hill to 3B or go out and get somebody?  I wouldn't mind seeing them give Emaus a shot, but I may be rating him a bit higher than most.  Good to see they aren't bringing Tallet back.  Same for Wise.  Mastroianni's chances get a bit of a boost.  

ayjackson - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 04:23 PM EST (#225387) #

EE could hit 30 homeruns in the Polo Grounds.

I'll always remember the bombs he hit in Arizona and Minneapolis - legendary stuff.

iains - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 04:26 PM EST (#225389) #
Jays 40 man roster is currently 34.
Gerry - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 04:56 PM EST (#225394) #

Updating my earlier comment, EE made $4.75m in 2010 and was looking at making $6-$7m in 2011 through arbitration.  At that salary he is definitely not a bargain.

Bill James, who tends to be a little optimistic, has EE forecasted in 2011 with a .335 OBP, a .477 SLG leading to a .812 OPS.

For comparison Brad Emaus' 2010 MLE is .333; .398; .731.  The same OBP as EE but lower SLG.

John McDonald, per Bill James, is at .265; .341; .606 for 2011. 

TamRa - Friday, November 12 2010 @ 09:21 PM EST (#225425) #
Rotoworld is saying the posting fee for Nishioka could be more than $4 million.  Salary on top of that.  The Dodgers and Giants are interested in him.  He led Japan's Pacific League with a .346 BA last year.

If they are right, I'm down with that. if you consider a potential 4 year contract (at most) that's a $1 mil per year premium which is nothing.

and a player posted for that low a price isn't going to make anything close to eight figures annually.

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