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According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Jays organization has shipped veteran right-hander Shaun Marcum to the Milwaukee Brewers. Top prospect Brett Lawrie, a Canadian second baseman, is rumored to be the return for the veteran hurler.

I have Milwaukee's Top 10 prospect list going up on Tuesday at but I might as well give a sneak peek here. For what it's worth, I've seen Lawrie play a number of times and he has a very impressive bat.

1. Brett Lawrie, 2B

Notes: Lawrie spent the 2010 season in double-A despite being just 20 years of age. He produced a solid offensive line of .285/.346/.449 in 554 at-bats. The former No. 1 draft pick showed a solid power output for a player at the keystone position with an ISO rate of .164. Lawrie also displayed some instincts on the base paths and stole 30 bags. At the plate, he shows a level stroke but it can get long at times. His stance includes a wide, low crouch and he needs to concentrate on keeping more upright through his core. Lawrie also has a very "noisy" load and less bat movement could perhaps help him make even more contact. At times, he looks unprepared to swing on some good fastballs on the inner half. Defensively, the hope is that Lawrie can develop into an average defensive fielder. Lawie could see time in the Majors in the second half of 2011 but the prospect - who carries himself with a lot of confidence - could probably use a full season in the minors to help iron out his overall game.

Jays Send Marcum to Milwaukee | 157 comments | Create New Account
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Gerry - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:38 PM EST (#226792) #

If Marcum is traded for prospects that are a year or two away, why?  The Jays have lots of pitching prospects and if they were going to trade a starter I would have thought they would get back a position player.

Could this trade setup another one?  Greinke perhaps?

Gerry - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:41 PM EST (#226793) #

One other thing.  We keep hearing that starting pitching is very valuable.  Marcum is a starter who has proved himself in the AL East so he should be worth close to what Greinke is.  He is cheaper than Greinke and has an extra year of control I believe.  I am talking myself into expecting a big haul back for Marcum.


CaramonLS - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:43 PM EST (#226794) #
If we're going to be paying the return for Marcum + a couple of our big prospects for Grienke, is that really worth it?  I'm not sold on the fact that it is - of course we have to see what the deal(s) work out to.
stevieboy22 - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:43 PM EST (#226795) #
I'm thinking big things here..

Either Fielder or Lawrie..

You don't trade a pitcher as good as Marcum for a few okay prospects...

Marc Hulet - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:47 PM EST (#226796) #
The Jays were also very heavily in on Jake Odorizzi during the '08 draft, too. He went 32nd overall, in between where the Jays took David Cooper and Kenny Wilson.
Jonny German - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:48 PM EST (#226797) #
I don't like the idea of trading Marcum for players that aren't likely to be in the majors in 2011. But I could be okay with this sort of trade if it's a stepping stone to other moves.
Original Ryan - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:48 PM EST (#226798) #
Jon Morosi hears Lawrie is one of the guys coming back, but he hasn't been able to confirm that.
sam - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:50 PM EST (#226799) #
I don't think Fielder is coming back. It's probably Jeffress and Gamel, or Lawrie and Jeffresss. I really think Jeffress is in there. One more suspension though and he's gone from baseball is a little scary though.
Forkball - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:51 PM EST (#226800) #

Seems like a curious move.  It wouldn't be unheard of to trade a player to get prospects to move onto to another team, but if that's the case wouldn't you think that it would all be done together?   And what would be the point of trading Marcum for prospects?  He should be a part of the core of the team for the next 5 years.

I think there's a lot more here than we know about at this point.  Given AA's secrecy I think that's likely if a move is going down.

I'll be disappointed to see Marcum go - he's pretty easily my favorite Jay going right now.


Ron - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:53 PM EST (#226801) #
I suggested a Cecil for Lawrie swap a couple of weeks ago. I know the Brewers weren't happy with Lawrie's decision to skip the AFL. While I like Lawrie, I don't see how this helps the Jays win games next season. 
Mike Green - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:54 PM EST (#226802) #
If the rumour is true, I would be very disappointed.  Marcum is easily my favourite Jay right now, as well.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:55 PM EST (#226803) #
Lawrie is a great return for Marcum, if he's in the deal and I hope the Jays won't be flipping him in another trade.

Here is an interview I did with Lawrie shortly before the '08 amateur draft
. I caught up with him while he was relaxing in a hotel room while going around for workouts with various clubs.

CaramonLS - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 09:56 PM EST (#226804) #
It certainly doesn't help us win next season - I thought he was going to be an essential part of the core for the next couple years - one of the anchors for a young staff.  Maybe it's an indication about Marcum's health?  Jays worried his arm is going to explode?
Forkball - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:01 PM EST (#226805) #

Sounds like Lawrie is part of the deal.  If so, it'll be interesting to see if they keep him at 2b.

I think, along with the Gose trade, we're starting to see the Jays reaching to lower levels to try and secure what they consider elite players.

I also think it's also an indication that they have pretty strong confidence in the pitchers that they do have.

Third thought, if Marcum is going for minor leaguers it's an indication to me that AA isn't building towards 2011, and if that's the case are they really going to be in on Greinke for just 2011-2012?

Mylegacy - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:05 PM EST (#226806) #
FIRSTLY - Marc - delighted to see you posting more lately - LOVE your stuff!


Lawrie - looks very good - very young. However can he actually play 2nd? Can he play any position? However, still very young and has a very sweet bat.
Odorizzi - 21 in 2011 looks good no question.
Rogers - shoulder surgery survivor - 25!!! in 2011- meh...
Jeffress - spectacular - no question - but has serious drug problem - will he stay clean? If not he's gone from baseball - huge risk!
Heckathorn - This is the guy we were scouting when we saw Jenkins pitching for the same team.
Peralta - great arm - control problems and maybe some emotional issues...

Without Lawrie I can't see a package of these guys worth Marcum. Least I'd take would be Lawrie and Odorizzi however (IF - I trusted him, and I don't think I do) Jeffress and Lawrie would be a very high end bat and a very high end arm.

Alex Obal - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:10 PM EST (#226807) #
Well, this is heartbreaking. Here's one more voice for the "Marcum was my favorite player" chorus.

It does look like the Jays might do OK from a value perspective - Lawrie is a good start - and there's certainly no shortage of arms in the pipeline. This is one way to disperse the logjam.

DH - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:13 PM EST (#226810) #
As we wait to hear who's coming back, the 2011 rotation still doesn't look too bad - Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek make a fine top 4 assuming growth/limited fall back. And pick your poison for #5 amongst Zep, Ray, Litsch, Richmond - or perhaps a veteran F pick up such as Bonderman or Francis.
Mylegacy - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:17 PM EST (#226811) #
AA has REPEATEDLY said his aim is to "stockpile young talent" then use them or trade them for what we need. On the Fan recently he said he wants to make his moves - get the talent - and then see where we are when the prospects are collected. I see this as an excellent opening to a Grienke trade - more high end prospects give more high end trade opportunities. IF - we get Grienke - it'll be VERY interesting to see if AA lets Snider go and keeps Drabek, the reverse - or we lose both...

Are you sure it's not April yet. I wanna see them play some ball!

danjulien - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:27 PM EST (#226812) #


9:11pm: A second Canadian prospect could be headed to the Blue Jays, 20-year-old right-hander Nick Bucci, a source tells Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star.

DH - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:31 PM EST (#226813) #
Haudricourt just posted (via twitter) that he has been told that Lawrie is indeed in the deal.

Marcum for the Brewers #1 prospect? Not bad, other prospects notwithstanding.

Sherrystar - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:31 PM EST (#226814) #
Per Haudricourt Twitter: A source in Canada just confirmed to me that Brett Lawrie indeed is in the deal to Toronto for Shaun Marcum. He is Brewers' No. 1 prospect.
chocolatethunder - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:33 PM EST (#226815) #
Oh man I love Marcum and the leadership....will wait and see what the end result is but going to really miss this guy. love the way he pitches and competes
Gerry - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:35 PM EST (#226816) #

Bob Elliott now saying Lawrie too.

The big question is where will he play?  Reportedly his defense at 2B is lacking.  The Jays could leave him there and move Hill; move Lawrie to 3B; or move Lawrie to left field.

danjulien - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:38 PM EST (#226817) #
The Jays may not have Hill around by the time Lawrie is ready.  You can never be worried about having too many guys at one is proven in this case of the depth of Major League starters and with the Adams/Hill draft picks
danjulien - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:40 PM EST (#226818) #
Thinking about this, this also removes a contender from the Greinke sweepstakes, Brewers were rumored to be in discussions with the Royals this morning and offering Ryan Braun.  Just because we traded Marcum doesn't mean we aren't in on Greinke, this could just be a process because of prospects or cash, kind of like Philly trading Lee to Seattle while getting Halladay..
Thomas - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:41 PM EST (#226819) #
Elliott tweets it is Lawrie for Marcum, straight up. Return aside, I'm another who is very sad to see Marcum go.

As for Lawrie's defense, tell him to spend a month this offseason training in Maine. Butters will show him the ropes.

TamRa - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:44 PM EST (#226820) #
Marc - the name Nick Bucci has come up now as a second player - can you tell us anything about him?

Looking at the stats, seems to be an ok-but-not-wow guy.

brent - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:45 PM EST (#226821) #
I'm fine with Marcum out. If the market is heating up like this, I think the club needs to see what it could get for Bautista. Keep buying low and selling high GM AA!
TamRa - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:46 PM EST (#226822) #
useless question time - who's our #1 prospect now, Drabek or Lawrie?

Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:47 PM EST (#226823) #

After reading the comments in and then examining the information for myself , I can conclude that Marcum might have had dificulties with New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay.  

However, in comparing pre- and post surgical stats, I believe Shaun Marcum came back better, and I think Milwaukee noticed.   Marcum is worth a 3-5 year deal with / without 1or 2 option years.   When I check Milwaukee's roster and stats I find a 1-2 punch of Gallardo and Marcum very credible.   This is a good deal for Milwaukee.

I think Brett Lawrie must be the piece in this trade.   Any other pieces will be filling the needs of Toronto as can be, but are not as critical.   I like this trade, more is to come.

Sherrystar - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:48 PM EST (#226824) #
Bob Elliott is saying it's Marcum for Lawrie straight-up.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:50 PM EST (#226825) #
Greinke doesn't really seem to fit unless the Jays somehow address other major needs as well (bullpen, 1B, 3B, team OBP). I suppose the Jays could flip Lawrie and a prospect or two to KC, then add Man-Ram and another couple of pieces. But realistically, the Jays are rebuilding and are unlikely to be really competitive for a while yet. And I'm not sure having Greinke over the next couple of years is much of an upgrade (if at all) over Marcum, who is also cheaper than the KC quasi-ace.
timpinder - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:50 PM EST (#226826) #

Personally I like this trade if Lawrie is indeed coming back.  I don't see the Jays as serious contenders until 2013 and beyond.  Marcum is due to become a free agent after 2013 if I'm not mistaken.  As a fan, I accept that the Jays are rebuilding and I will happily endure two years of mediocrity under the auspices that they'll be a perennial contender thereafter.  The Jays have stockpiled young talent in the low minors that should be ready starting on or about 2013 and Lawrie is just another piece to that puzzle.

Chuck - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 10:56 PM EST (#226827) #

I believe Shaun Marcum came back better, and I think Milwaukee noticed. 

I think it's fair to say that everyone with a pulse noticed.

david wang - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 11:01 PM EST (#226828) #
If Milwaukee is indeed offering Braun for Grienke...Can the Jays just give Milwaukee the parts needed to Grienke, and keep Braun for themselves.
BumWino - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 11:04 PM EST (#226829) #

Regarding Marcum's departure, remember what the American rear-admiral said so gravely in "Red October?" 


Ho-hum, another good one bites the dust for a couple of sure-thing, can't-miss prospects.  

However, if this trade has something to do with acquiring Greinke, then that's different.   Still, Greinke makes a lot of money.  This kind of expenditure is out of character for our three wise men, Alex, Paul and Nadir.

I didn't figure Jays were stretching out Rzepczynski's innings in the AFL to pitch relief in 2011.  But so many really savvy baseball people crucified me for suggesting Zep would start that I changed my mind.  You know, go with the flow.  Majority rules.  My terminal gutlessness.  Take your pick.



Sherrystar - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 11:17 PM EST (#226830) #
Braun for Greinke? This is the first that I am hearing of this. Source?
Gerry - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 11:26 PM EST (#226831) #

Lawrie was the #5 prospect in the Southern League this season.  Here is BA's scouting report:

After debuting in the SL as a 19-year-old last August, Lawrie spent all of 2010 in Huntsville. He didn't disappoint, leading the league in runs (90), hits (158), triples (16), total bases (250) and comparisons to Dan Uggla (countless).

Like Uggla, Lawrie is a strong, aggressive hitter with a big swing. He has a quick bat that stays in the hitting zone for a long time, and balls carry well off his bat. While he's prone to chasing pitches out of the zone, he also has shown the ability to make adjustments during at-bats and series. He stole 30 bases this year, but he also was caught 13 times and his speed is only average.

Lawrie's offense is well ahead of his defense at this point. He made 25 errors this year and still needs to improve his hands and footwork around second base. Many scouts believe he'll land on an outfield corner, where he'd have average range and arm strength.


Mylegacy - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 11:28 PM EST (#226832) #
BumWino -  As to Scrabble - Methinks the stars are aligning and we get Grienke - in which case it's Grienke, Romero (L), Morrow, Cecil (L) and most likely Drabek. IF Scrabble gets in there as the 5th arm on the opening day roster he'll be well and seriously passed in June by both Drabek and Stewart - at which time he can play long relief in the pen. Unless Drabek is part of the Grienke parcel.

On Lawrie - this guy is has a RARE bat and an ego bigger than a Hecate Strait halibut (since I live in BC I can think of no greater compliment to pay...) I think he'll be the "hitter" in the Greinke trade - meaning we get to keep Snider and Grienke OR if we trade Snider at least we'll have another very serious, plus-plus power bat. So be it.

Anyone seen Manny lately at the Eaton's Center?

PeterG - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 11:36 PM EST (#226833) #

Don't think AA will trade for Grienke but I do think Snider will be dealt somewhere as my spies tell me AA has been trying to deal him since last winter.

Wildrose - Sunday, December 05 2010 @ 11:48 PM EST (#226834) #
I remember earlier this year AA was asked about a possible extension for Marcum after the Romero deal, he proceeded to dodge the question. In retrospect this should have signaled that the team viewed him as a diminishing asset.

I certainly enjoyed his pitching style. He was a craftsmen.

The Jays have always liked Lawrie. He rose to prominence with Canada's National Junior team, once impressing  scouts by hitting 4 dingers in a double header against a Dominican MLB  minor league team. He's said to have big time power-only 8 home runs this year, but 35 doubles and 16 triples , that at the age of 20 portend better home run totals down the road.

His fielding is said to be a weakness, but in fairness he was primarily a catcher until turning pro. He stole 30 bases and I think if given time has the athleticism to be a reasonable infielder. The team is trying to make more of an imprimatur on the west coast , this guy could be a rising star and could help matters in this area.

Another deal that potentially adds a young high impact player for the future, AA is sticking to his template. 

Spifficus - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:11 AM EST (#226835) #
This is definitely a mixed emotion deal for me. Marcum's been a joy to watch pitch since he stepped into the rotation in '07, and seemed to have a sarcastic wit and prankster personality that I find entertaining. I can't wait to watch what Marcum's changeup does to the NL Central lineups.

That said, I have a prospect-crush on Lowrie. Whenever I read his scouting reports, they always read like a standout-bat 3B to me. As tough as it is to see Marcum go, Lowrie's a guy that makes it worth it to me.

The_Game - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:30 AM EST (#226836) #
A raw prospect like Lawrie shouldn't have been enough to acquire a guy like Marcum. Poor deal.
dan gordon - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:40 AM EST (#226837) #

Very disappointing to see them trade Marcum.  He's a better pitcher than most people realize.  Marcum and Greinke have virtually identical career ERA's and WHIP's, despite Marcum facing tougher opposition , and Marcum is way cheaper.   If this is a prelude to adding Greinke to replace Marcum in the rotation I think there is some serious misjudgment going on.  If it's not a prelude to adding Greinke, then they are taking another step into the future before contending.

Lawrie sounds like an outstanding prospect and a Canadian, too.  Nice addition.  If it's straight up Marcum for Lawrie, I don't like it at all.  If they end up packaging what they get for Marcum and add MORE to that package to get Greinke, I think they have made a serious mistake.

BumWino - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:58 AM EST (#226838) #

Mylegacy, er, skoal!  Thanks for the info on Lawrie. 

Yes, I saw Manny at the Eaton's Centre the other day.  He was sitting on a bench in the public area, saying Our Father's and Hail Mary's on every bead in his hair.   He told me that Alex Anthopoulos was making him do it to atone for all his past transgressions.  You know, before he would consider signing Manny.

Seriously, why acquire Greinke, if the Jays have a poor bullpen and a big hole at DH? 

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:06 AM EST (#226839) #
Make that 5 homers in a double-header-just read Marc's fine pre draft story.

I'm not sure a guy who has the wheels to hit 16 triples should be described as having  "average speed" ,and given that he's a former catcher you'd think he has enough arm to play third. This discussion about moving to the outfield seems a little premature( although he projects to have the kind off stick to play anywhere).

Rosenthal has posted that the Jays were talking a 3 year contract ( not an extension as erroneously reported on MLB rumors) with Marcum, and that the Brewers were willing to go longer. Long term signability seems to be somewhat of a a factor in driving this deal ( Marcum  is under control for 2 more years). Rosenthal notes Marcum is a Mid West guy and is happy to return to the general area.
85bluejay - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:16 AM EST (#226841) #

LOVE this trade - Getting a premium bat like lawrie for Marcum is fantastic - AA took advantage of the Brewers

need to win now in fielders last season before FA - RH power bats are so hard to acquire - I hope all

the posters criticizing this deal remember what their reactions were in a few yrs.The, we must compete

now in 2011 is unrealistic - the Jays are not  just a player or 2 away from a pennant race - AA has stated

repeatedly that he is in the talent acquisition business and then see how it plays out & he has acquired

a premium talent in my opinion - we are trading from a position of strength (pitching) to improve a

weakness (position players).

I liked Marcum very much and thank him for his yrs. in Toronto - also wish him well in Milwaukee

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:21 AM EST (#226842) #
You'd have to wonder if the Jays will take a run at 2 other Canadians sitting out there, Russell Martin and Jeff Francis. Either player if they returned to their previous performance levels could be quite good or they could be total busts. AA has said he's going to push the envelope, it could be an interesting next few days. 
dan gordon - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:24 AM EST (#226843) #
Wilner is confirming it's a one-for-one trade, Marcum/Lawrie.  Terrible trade.
christaylor - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:34 AM EST (#226844) #
"Seriously, why acquire Greinke, if the Jays have a poor bullpen and a big hole at DH? "

Uh, because pitchers in the pen are fungible and piecing together an adequate DH is even easier...

Of the reasons why the Jays shouldn't acquire Greinke, I don't think either of these are on the radar.
Mylegacy - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:44 AM EST (#226845) #
B(um)W(ino) - Why get Grienke? The question is really; Is Greinke the 2009 guy or the 2007, 2008 and 2010 guy? Personally, I'm not sold that he's closer to the 2009 guy - so I'm leery. However, AA now has more scouts eying players than Carter has liver pills (IF you know what that refers to then you really are an old fu*ker) and if those scouts see reasons to think Greinke is going to be an Ace then - I've got to defer to their judgment. They better not be wrong.

As to other holes - early days my man - early days.

The bull pen includes as of now: Frasor, Camp, Purcey, Janssen, Mills, Richmond, Roenicke, Carlson, Litsch, Ray, Reyes, Farina and a guy named McGowan. Even from here on the Pacific ocean - that looks not so worse.

A final thought on Lawrie - he went 16th overall in the First round of the 2008 Draft - we picked David Cooper next (17th overall) - Lawrie has been compared to Jeff Kent - Jeff was a middlin' defensive 2nd baseman BUT a spectacular offensive one. In addition Lawrie allows us to keep either him or Snider in a Grienke trade (or some other trade) and ensures the team has at least one ready - or near ready - young super plus-plus power bat. Crucial as I see it.

Now that AGon is gone to Boston - I have a feeling that the Jay's make a move on Beltre for 3rd. Picture; Grienke (R) for Ace, Romero (L), Morrow (R), Cecil (L), Drabek/Scrabble/Stewart (all (R)) and an offense of: Beltre for 3rd, Manny for DH, Lind for 1st, Snider for LF, Wells for CF, Bautista for RF, Escobar for SS, Arencibia for C and Hill for 2nd. That is a potent starting place, n'est pas?

Ryan C - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:52 AM EST (#226846) #

The reason the Jays wouldn't acquire Greinke is because they're not ready to compete in 2011 and he's only under contract for two years.  AA isn't worried about making the playoffs in 2011, he's building up the level of talent across the entire franchise. 

At some point you do strike and go for the gold, and if everything were to fall their way there's a chance that could be next year for the Jays.  But if you go for it too soon because you're banking on everything falling your way, and you're wrong, you have to start all over again just ask Brian Burke or Ricciardi.  AA strikes me as someone with a lot more patience than that.  The Jays are getting closer, I don't think they're there yet, but this trade is will help inch them along toward the ultimate goal.


The_Game - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:09 AM EST (#226847) #
Their ability to compete in 2011 certainly took a hit with this trade. I don't see much point in acquiring Greinke now.
92-93 - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:19 AM EST (#226848) #
This is a good trade if it's followed by the trading of Hill, Lind, Bautista, Escobar, and any reliever you can get value for. Heck, why not eat 3/4 of Vernon's salary so you can trade him for prospects too? This way the team will be flush with prospects ready to make an impact in 2014, and none of them will be blocked. Come to think of it Brandon Morrow is already in arbitration too, I wonder what we can get for him.
The_Game - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:28 AM EST (#226849) #
Agreed...if they are going to rebuild, do it right.  Enough with the mixed messages and mediocrity. They should have traded Hill and Lind last offseason
Richard S.S. - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:55 AM EST (#226850) #

With it being very likely Shaun Marcum is traded, it time to talk about what the Starting Rotation will be - with and without Zach Greinke.

With Greinke.

What will we get from Zach Greinke as a Toronto Blue Jay?   I think he has better stuff than Marcum, I'll wait to see if he's a better pitcher.   Do we get 2007, 2008, 2009 or 2010 from him?   Who knows?   We are an upgrade on Kansas City, city and team.   We are a better team, with a a lot better offence, and getting to the post-season much sooner than K.C. will.  We should get somewhere between a 2008 and a 2009 season from him, or this team is as bad as some people are saying we are.

Unless traded, we will have Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil as Starters 2, 3, 4.   Unless traded, competing for spot #5 are Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart and unless traded, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond and Robert Ray.   That's too many starters.   I would expect 1 of Romero, Morrow or Cecil, plus 1or 2 of Rzepczynski, Drabek and Stewart, plus 1 or 2  or 3 of Litsch, Mills, Richmond or Ray to be traded this off-season.

Without Greinke.

Unless traded, we will have Ricky Romero as our default ace with Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil as Starters 2, 3.   Unless traded, competing for spots 4 and 5 are Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart and unless traded, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond and Robert Ray.   That's still too many starters.  

About the trade.

Shaun Marcum for just Brett Lawrie doesn't feel like enough.   It is unknown as yet, as to whether or not this is part of the Carlos Villanueva trade, or could not be combined with it.   With minor league rosters being locked until the Rule 5 draft, any announcement of this type can't be made until Friday.   Anything we have just now is not officially official, just semi-official leaks.   Does make you wonder about how good Carlos Villanueva is if will still must give them a PTBNL.   It does set a precedent when traded an Ace for a Number 1 stud prospect.

christaylor - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 03:11 AM EST (#226851) #
It is a little disingenuous to say that Marcum is the same pitcher as Greinke. Sure one can cherry pick a couple of similar stats, but SO/9, HR/9 and, perhaps most importantly, IP (not to mention age and actually watch them both pitch) there's no question Greinke is a better pitcher. That's even without wading into territory like xFIP.

Unlike other posters, I think/hope this trade signals that AA is in on another pitcher, be it Greinke or someone else (I mean, who saw Marcum going?) -- if it is just this trade it doesn't make much sense; why not just trade everything not nailed down as was pointed out?

I can't help but think that this is going to be a big win for the Brewers in the long run. I hope I'm wrong and we see a Jays team with Lawrie, Hecchevaria, D'arnaud, and Gose... but I wouldn't hold my breath.

The pessimist in me thinks that while JP was hamstrung by never having enough money to put together good teams, AA will just stock pile and talent and ship it out to acquire younger talent and build nothing more than good teams. Different method, same results, same root cause -- Rogers.
BumWino - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 03:14 AM EST (#226852) #

Yes, Mylegacy, if life's not worth living it may be the liver.  I am very old.

If Jays get Greinke and can add Manny and Beltre, they could have a pretty good team.  Someone in the pen needs to step up and close.  Or Jays will have to trade for a top closer during the season.

Otherwise, shouldn't be a problem remaining in contention throughout the season. 

sam - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 03:34 AM EST (#226853) #
I know everyone probably disagrees with me here but I like the trade. Shaun Marcum is a good pitcher don't get me wrong, but he was no world-beater. I think down the road, Morrow and Romero have the potential to be frontline pitchers on playoff teams but I think Marcum had reached his career plateau i the AL East. Although his line is mighty impressive, his stats against the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees were quite poor. If we are going to compete, we need to start evaluating our players in relation to competing teams. If Marcum is our Ace, is he better than Sabathia, Price, Beckett?

Also, I think those who honestly believe we're a piece from competing next year are kidding themselves. A lot went right last year, and for all that to happen this year in addition to a lot more going right is extremely unlikely. I think this move is in keeping with the long term focus of the organization. The acquisition of Lawrie gives the Jays the chance of getting a premium everyday player.

With that being said, I'm sure Marcum has a great year next year with the Brewers, but I think we get the better return long term here. I just don't see that arm throwing 200 innings next year or the year after consistently.
Alex Obal - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:06 AM EST (#226854) #
If Marcum is our Ace, is he better than Sabathia, Price, Beckett?

Hands down, he's better than Beckett. (But not Lester, probably not Buchholz... and not Sabathia or Price.)

The point about Marcum's durability is a good one. If you don't like his chances of staying healthy going forward, and he's coming off three straight very good seasons, and you have several starting prospects knocking on the door, why not cash in. I suppose the answer would be that he's too good, and he's a respected leader who is nevertheless three years away from free agency.

I want to hear more about Lawrie's defense before evaluating the trade, I think.

Alex Obal - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:19 AM EST (#226855) #
Also, can't compare Marcum and Greinke's career stats. Greinke pitched a full season at age 20, and a second full season beset by social anxiety issues. I agree that Marcum is criminally underrated. But over the most relevant seasons, possibly against weaker competition, Greinke has been better.
Richard S.S. - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 05:21 AM EST (#226856) #

To consider why trade Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie, let's step out onto the grassy knoll for a while.   Now as conspiracy theories go, this thing of mine is a gem.  

Who plays 2B for us in 2012?   Aaron Hills' 2010 season was a thing to forget, but his offense and defense combining with attitude might have changed some minds.   Do you "activate" his three-option plan just prior to the 2011 season (ages 30, 31, 32)?   Do you "activate" his two-option plan after the 2011 season (ages 30, 31)?   Or do you let him walk as a free agent(age 29)?   After all, you just acquired his replacement (age 21).

uglyone - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 06:37 AM EST (#226857) #
not a huge fan of this deal, unless Lowrie can stick at 2B.

If he's a corner outfielder, I'm not sure his bat is exciting enough to make him a great prospect all by himself.

His numbers vs. RHP last year were not very good, and his overall impressive numbers are based almost entirely on bashing LHP at a .965ops clip. Against RHP we see a ton of strikeouts, and not much production. He also benefitted from a lofty .350babip this year. Granted, he's only 20 at a high level so his performance is still impressive.

Good prospect, but not a great prospect I don't think. Not if he's unlikely to ever have much defensive value.

Meanwhile, Marcum is a very good starter with a career 3.64era in the AL East. A borderline Ace who will look even more acelike in the NL, I'd wager.

No guarantees that lawrie is ever as good as Marcum is now.
sam - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 07:13 AM EST (#226858) #
I'd like to know where you get your stats. A career 3.64era? I don't think so. He had a career year last year at 3.64 era. His numbers against Al East opponents are not very formidable.
sam - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 07:28 AM EST (#226859) #
Marcum is good, but let's put his stats into perspective. He ranked 14th in ERA for pitchers above 162 innings in the American league, he ranked 23rd in innings pitched in the American League, he was in an eight way tie for 18th in wins in the American league, he was 18th in strikeouts in the American league, he was 15th in opponents batting averages in the American league, and the only real stat of note was that he had the fourth lowest whip in the American league.

This was a career year for Marcum and I think the general consensus now is you get what you see with Marcum. So in my mind, based on those stats, we're giving up a no. 2 and a no. 3 on a good team for one the best (if not the best) second base prospects in baseball.
Dave Till - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 08:14 AM EST (#226860) #
I'm not sure that Lawrie is enough for Marcum. Compare the following two players. Both played in AA at 20 years old.

Player A: .285/.346/.451 - 47 BB, 118 SO, 36 2B, 16 3B, 8 HR, 30 SB, 13 CS
Player B: .289/.339/.451 - 39 BB, 110 SO, 29 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 38 SB, 13 CS

Player A is Lawrie, and Player B is Alex Gonzalez The Original, who put up those numbers in AA as a 20-year-old in 1993.

For me, a significant red flag is the relatively high strikeout totals - this suggests that Lawrie has a hole or two in his swing. If he does, these weaknesses will be mercilessly exploited at the major league level.

I suppose that AA has decided that he can't beat the beasts of the AL East with his current roster (plus an addition or two), so he's going long. Rogers will need to be able to absorb the short-term hits to attendance and TV audiences if he decides to do this. On the other hand, perhaps he's got some other deals lined up, and this is just the beginning. Who knows?

Magpie - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 08:44 AM EST (#226861) #
No guarantees that Lawrie is ever as good as Marcum is now.

There never are.
pooks137 - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:09 AM EST (#226862) #

Interesting comparison Dave Till.  Those numbers for Lawrie/A.Gonzalez are eerily similar for age/level.

That being said, I think one can use player similar comparisons and single season stats like above to frame any argument one cares to make if you look hard enough.

In my recollection, A. Gonzalez was a highly regarded prospect, on the BA Top 100 (not an easy feat) for many years before making it to the majors and never fulfilling any of the offensive potential he flashed in the minors.

I think you can use stats as above to pinpoint areas of improvement, but for prospects like Lawrie with such a pedigree and playing several levels above expected for age 20, the usefulness of stats only goes so far.  At some point, you have to trust your scout's opinions on his chance achieving hiss upside based on identifying flaws and ability to overcome the same.

Chuck - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:13 AM EST (#226863) #

he was in an eight way tie for 18th in wins in the American league

Also in this eight way tie was some guy pitching in Seattle.

Marc Hulet - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:14 AM EST (#226864) #

Just to clear up one misconception, Lawrie is actually close to MLB ready with the bat... he's not a raw prospect and succeeded at double-A as a 20 year old.

I like the return but would have preferred it with another player coming back. I'm a Marcum fan but I am definitely worried about his durability heading into his age 30+ years. His stuff should allow him to be a very good pitcher in the NL.



Dave Till - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:17 AM EST (#226865) #
I think you can use stats as above to pinpoint areas of improvement, but for prospects like Lawrie with such a pedigree and playing several levels above expected for age 20, the usefulness of stats only goes so far.

True enough - and this is where we find out, I guess, whether the Blue Jays' scouting staff are good at their jobs or not.

I'd be much more comfortable with the deal if Lawrie's walk total was higher and his strikeout total was lower. I guess we'll know soon enough whether the Jays got a bargain or whether they gave away a significant asset for nothing.
Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:22 AM EST (#226866) #
I am glad that it is Lawrie rather than a pitcher coming back.  This trade (on its own) obviously reflects a trade of a present asset for a future asset, but at least balances the talent some between pitchers and position players. 

Lawrie was drafted as a catcher, and has played second base in the minors so far.  It's a bit of a strange choice because his arm is apparently good, but his footwork is not great. 

Thomas - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:23 AM EST (#226867) #
I like Lawrie's profile as a hitter. It's particularly impressive for a 2B, or even 3B, and I'd be surprised if the Jays made this trade and didn't project him to stick at one of those two positions. Reports in Milwaukee had him possibly ending up as a corner outfielder, which, while he would still be a good prospect, is not nearly as impressive. Also, it's an open secret around baseball that Lawrie's attitude isn't very good. He was reportedly asked to go to the AFL this year and declined, because he basically didn't want to go. AA must have looked into this, but when a 20-year-old prospect is making decisions like that, I wouldn't ignore it entirely.

As for Marcum, the timing makes some sense if the Jays had decided they wanted to deal him. I wouldn't read "he will be traded" into every AA "no comment" on the possibility of an extension, but when the front office was looking at the pitchers and which ones to lock up, I suspect they decided Romero was a yes, Mracum was a no and they could defer on Cecil and Morrow. Whether it was because of Marcum's injury history, his age or his profile as a control pitcher (although Fangraphs had a piece that shows he pitches more like a power pitcher than a control pitcher), despite his stuff or, probably, some combination, I'm not sure. However, if the team had decided not to lock Marcum up, he's just come off a year when he's proven he's recovered from Tommy John and he's had the best year of his career, so far. If the team wanted to trade him before free agency, I think the odds favoured next year being either worse statistically (which Milwaukee probably argued during negotiations) or Marcum suffering some sort of injury.

By trading Marcum this offseason, AA also damaged the team's playoff aspirations, but he probably feels the Jays will be more ready to contend 2-3 years down the road. Also, by trading Marcum he opens up a spot in the rotation for Drabek and Rzepczynski to both have full-time roles as starters in the majors, which will help give teh Jays more time to evaluate them and decide whether they are best used as starters or trade-bait or moved to the bullpen. The team still has Stewart, Ray, Richmond or Litsch, if healthy, in reserve. That's not as nice as having Rzepczynski as the team's 6th starter, but it does mean the Jays probably won't have to flounder with the likes of Brian Burres.

That is all assuming that AA does not add another pitcher this offseason. If he does, the mystery pitcher takes Marcum's spot and that move will have to be evaluated when made.

85bluejay - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:28 AM EST (#226868) #

As already stated, I love this trade and it's keeping in line with what AA has stated about how he would build

a long term contender - remember this guy is only 1 yr. into his tenure.That said,

I wish people would get off the Zach Greinke train - if the jays acquire Greinke for anything like

what's been speculated, then I think that would be a huge mistake, so I don't think

Zach is in the card.

I expect the Jays will sign a veteran pitcher coming off injury/down yr. to eat up some innings and

hopefully flip at the trade deadline when some youngsters are ready and safe from super 2

I am hopeful that the Jays will put Bautista on the block this week and get some more quality young


Speaking of trades, I like Lawrie more than any of the prospects that the Padres acquired from the

Gonzalez deal.

I hope AA has a busy winter meeting.

Gerry - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:31 AM EST (#226869) #

I didn't realize Marcum is almost 29, his birthday is next week.  I would have thought he was around 27.

It appears that AA doesn't believe the Jays are in a position to compete year after year until 2013 or 2014.  Marcum would be pitching at 31 or 32 in those years.  Can Marcum be as effective as he is today if he loses a mile or two off his fastball as he gets older?  Lefties like Jamie Moyer can get by but not too many righties can.  Maybe AA was capitalising on Marcum's value before it dropped.

John Northey - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:32 AM EST (#226870) #
An interesting trade. The old 'would you have done this last year' question...
A year ago Marcum was coming off of TJ surgery and had yet to throw 160 innings in a season in the majors. Lawrie was a 19 year old who shot through a system from A to AA in his first year as a pro with a 802 OPS in A and just a 591 in AA, the #59 prospect in baseball as far as BA was concerned.

I suspect last winter this would've been viewed as a steal for the Jays. Since then Lawrie has hit 285/346/451 in AA, suggesting he is for real, while Marcum threw 195 innings with a 114 ERA+ and his highest K/9 yet (7.6) with his lowest BB/9 (2.0) and his lowest HR/9 (1.1).

Marcum is in the back half of his prime at 29 and just about to get expensive. Lawrie has yet to have a day of ML service thus has years before he is pricey. Not a big factor for fans, but big time factors if you own a team. Milwaukee is a contender and has a few pieces getting to the pricey stage so they might be near the end of their window. The Jays are trying to open a window still.

This catches me as a 'sell high' trade. Marcum will (most likely) never be worth more than he is right now. He will (probably) be an above average starter for the next 3-5 years (or more) and might make an All-Star team. Lawrie has the potential to become a regular AS as soon as 2012.

To me this is a trade that carries high risk/high reward. If Lawrie is the real deal then AA will look amazing. If he follows the Alex Gonzalez #1 path then AA might be OK depending how Marcum does. If he flops then AA could look terrible (not as bad as Ash's Wells-Sirotka deal, but worse than Cesar Izturis & Paul Quantrill for Luke Prokopec).
Gerry - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 09:54 AM EST (#226871) #
One knock on Lawrie was his refusal to go the AFL this year.  Does anyone know why?
CSHunt68 - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:07 AM EST (#226873) #
Sounds like Pat Gillick was just elected to the Hall. :) Nice work, Pat. Congratulations.
Rich - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:15 AM EST (#226874) #

Without Greinke.

Unless traded, we will have Ricky Romero as our default ace with Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil as Starters 2, 3.   Unless traded, competing for spots 4 and 5 are Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart and unless traded, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond and Robert Ray.   That's still too many starters.

I respectfully disagree.  Of every pitcher you listed for the last 2 spots I think that only Drabek and possibly Stewart are likely to be reliable, consistent big league starters.  Everyone else is either a fringe 5th starter or a reliever.  Litsch and Richmond can't stay healthy and Zep, Mills, and Ray have done little other than shown flashes.  I don't think any of these five pitchers are likely to be a 25/30 start, 10-12 game winner other than in a single year where everything breaks their way.

This may be a case of taking a step back to take a step forwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.  AA drafted so much pitching last June I can only assume this is a long-term move and would be very surprised if a move for Greinke is in the cards.
BalzacChieftain - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:39 AM EST (#226878) #

I think this is a "wait-and-see" trade, with the possibility of it being short-term or long-term.   Assessing this trade on its own is fine and dandy, but Lawrie could get flipped again, so we have to wait and see what Marcum really got the Jays back if this is hinging on another offseason trade.  Despite saying this, I think Lawrie fills a need for organizational depth and a 2B-3B for the longer-term future, neither of which Toronto has as far as depth is concerned. 

Second, if Toronto plans on keeping Lawrie for good, there is no way of knowing this was a good trade until he establishes himself at the major league level.  Nevertheless, I think it might have been more prudent to wait until the meetings had started to perhaps drive up Marcum's value, but I would assume AA was diligent as far as inquiring what Marcum's trade value was before he made the deal.

Thomas - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:45 AM EST (#226879) #
One knock on Lawrie was his refusal to go the AFL this year.  Does anyone know why?

As I said in my post, I think the common interpretation is that he just didn't want to. It was implied that it was because Lawrie was tired in one article I read, but most people seem to have construed it as Lawrie just refusing to play. I think people would have given Lawrie the benefit of the doubt, except for the fact he's been known to be unpopular with teammates, has gotten into a fight with a teammate and has been benched for not running out a grounder in the past couple of years.

Escobar's attitude problems haven't resurfaced here, as far as we can tell, and what's in the past is in the past. However, one can at least see why people took a less-than-charitable interpretation of Lawrie asking to be excused from the AFL.
david wang - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:53 AM EST (#226880) #
In terms of just competing next year, is there going to be a great drop off from marcum to his replacement? Either drabek or rzep I assume. I assume it won't be too much of a drop, and you add a top level prospect.

I also wonder where lawrie ranks on the jays prospects list now? Behind just drabek?
Marc Hulet - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:55 AM EST (#226881) #

Lawrie was drafted with the thought on moving him to catcher but he played all over the diamond as an amateur and never really spent much time at all behind the dish until the lead up to the draft to improve his draft stock. His best spot is probably left field but there is a concern that he would lose focus out there.

Having spoken with Lawrie, I can assure you he is a very confident kid and I can see how some would feel that comes off as cocky and might rub some people the wrong way. With a solid coaching staff and good clubhouse presence, I think he'll be fine.

I like the Uggla comp.

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:55 AM EST (#226882) #
BA had Lawrie at #59 in their top 100 list last year, given his solid numbers at AA  and relative youth my guess is that he'll be in the 25-40 range this year.

This is certainly a challenge trade in terms of trusting your scouts, a lot of his value is tied up in staying at second or third, the Blue Jays must think he's capable of this.

He's often compared to Chase Utley or Dan Uggla, although he's considerably ahead of both at a similar age. Direct comparisons however are difficult, as both these players were in college at a similar age. Uggla made AA at 24, Utley skipped from high A to AAA at age 23, Lawrie is on a much faster track.

I'd like to hear more on if the Jays tried to extend Marcum. It seems like they weren't prepared to go as long as the player and his agent wanted. If so, that makes his value   (according to fan graphs) , if he pitches to the same standard as in 2010 at about $ 14 million a year. He would've gotten  probably 13-15 million in salary over the next 2 arbitration years, plus the value of the draft choices when he left ( ? 5million) giving him a surplus value to the team of about $ 20 million.

Lets just say Lawrie is as good as Uggla his first 4 years, that's $57.8 of production for about 4-5  million in salary. You all can do the math, that would be a pretty good return.

Here's the rub however, if he's a bust you may get virtually nothing in terms of return. This is called taking on risk. If you enjoy the teams current status of treading water in the A.L. East you don't make this deal, if you want to do better, you do your due diligence ( scouting) and hope the chips fall your way.    
Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 10:57 AM EST (#226883) #
I am pretty sure that Rzepczynski will begin the season as the #4 starter now.  While his major league career to date may have had ups and downs, the overall numbers are solidly positive, a 4.32 ERA (100 ERA+) with a 4.36 FIP and a 4.00 xFIP.  He has struck out 8.7 per 9IP and has a 51% GB rate.  The only negative has been his walk rate, but it has been tolerable.  His minor league record is very good. 

At this point, I expect that the other named pitchers will be fighting out for the 5th spot, with Drabek perhaps in the minors and Stewart perhaps in the bullpen to start the season. 

Chuck - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:05 AM EST (#226887) #

In terms of just competing next year, is there going to be a great drop off from marcum to his replacement? Either drabek or rzep I assume. I assume it won't be too much of a drop

Back of the napkin analysis goes like this: Assuming Marcum repeats his 2010 (yes, perhaps a big assumption), he'd deliver 195 innings of 3.64 ERA. Say his replacement(s) provide a 4.80 ERA in his stead. That's a net drop of 25 runs, or about 2.5 team wins.

MatO - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:29 AM EST (#226888) #
Nice comparison of Lawrie to AGon the 1st but Gonzalez was a freak as he didn't didn't improve one iota with the bat after the age of 21.  I don't see K's as being a problem for Lawrie.  It wasn't terrible as a 20 year old in AA and when he was an age appropriate 19 in the MWL it was no problem at all.  Way better than Snider's at the same age.
uglyone - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:31 AM EST (#226889) #
I'd like to know where you get your stats. A career 3.64era? I don't think so. He had a career year last year at 3.64 era. His numbers against Al East opponents are not very formidable.

My bad. A career 3.85era in the Al East. A career 3.77era as a starter.

And yes, his numbers away from the AL East are much more impressive - much more Ace like.

And now he's away from the AL East pretty much permanently.
Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:34 AM EST (#226890) #
Very big assumption, Chuck.  If you look at the best age comparables according to BBRef, Chris Young after 2007 and Dice K after 2009, you get 96 ERA+ in 100 innings for Young and 93 ERA+ in 150 innings for Dice K in the following year. 

Subjectively, I like Marcum a lot better than that.  I expect that like David Wells and Tommy John he is going to be pitching well into his late 30s.  Yes, he's a right-hander but he holds runners and fields his position very well. 

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:35 AM EST (#226891) #
I wish I could do links properly, at any rate here's some comment from an ex-scout on the Lawrie deal. (

In time, Lawrie will consistently show 25-plus-home run power if things break right for him. As with most 20-year-old players there is some risk involved. His plate discipline and swings and misses will need to be dealt with, but this is the type of offensive upside you take a shot on any day of the week.

Jonny German - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:38 AM EST (#226892) #
He's often compared to Chase Utley or Dan Uggla, although he's considerably ahead of both at a similar age.
He's also considerably behind Alex Gordon, Andy Marte, and Brandon Wood at a similar age. As pooks said earlier in the thread, you can make these sorts of comparisons in all directions.
Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:42 AM EST (#226893) #
Here's a less inspiring comment from Craig Calceterra;

While Lawrie is technically the Brewers’ top prospect, some people I was talking to last night were less-than-impressed with him, believing him to be a head case and, frankly, not as good as some of the prospect-ranking types think he is.

Like I said a challenge trade, it certainly has people talking.

Chuck - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:45 AM EST (#226895) #

Very big assumption, Chuck.

Agreed, thus the "back of the napkin" caveat. I, too, like Marcum long term, though anticipate a step back in 2011 (given the magnitude of the step forward in 2010), perhaps more in playing time than in level of performance (a la ZiPS).

uglyone - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:51 AM EST (#226897) #
I honestly think his performance in the field last year spooked plenty of scouts. By all reports he was a butcher out there. And for an all-bat prospect there's plenty of areas of concern offensively as well.
Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:52 AM EST (#226898) #
He's also considerably behind Alex Gordon, Andy Marte, and Brandon Wood at a similar age. As pooks said earlier in the thread, you can make these sorts of comparisons in all directions.

Absolutely, that's the nature of baseball discussion. Projecting talent in this sport is much more difficult than in the other major North American past times. Your going to have a wide variance of opinion on players. Baseball does however, have a rather well defined statistical measurement system in place that helps compare players.
Paul D - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:57 AM EST (#226899) #

Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for minor league pitching according to Twitter.

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:04 PM EST (#226901) #
I'm not the only guy making the Uggla comparison ( from the same article I linked earlier)

A strongly built righty hitter, Lawrie puts on a show in batting practice and in time will begin to bring that into game action. He uses his hands exceptionally well in his swing and shows advanced power to right-center field. Now at second base, the natural comparison to come up among scouts is Dan Uggla.

I do think the Brandon Wood comparison is a somewhat good one, although Wood was only at high A at age 20, lots of power that never came to fruition.

BumWino - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:14 PM EST (#226902) #

Thanks for the gratuitous criticism.  I get lots of it because I don't always use single-syllable words to enhance low-brow comprehension.  (The stats I use are often faulty because I quote 'em from memory, eh.)

Here it is.  AA said he would "gopher the guzzle" when all the other pieces were in place.  Bullpen and DH are as yet not in place.

How about 3B and 1B, Chris?  Are they off or on the Jays radar?  I like Bautista and Lind, who may or may not be able to out-field the departed Milk and Ooobs.  But the 77 HR's they hit last year is, like, pretty cool, eh. 

Now in your fungible pen, Lewis could close, and your adequate DH might include McCoy, McDonald, Molina or Arencibia, depending upon game-day availability.  I wouldn't know because you didn't give any examples.  Just the gratuitous criticism.  Thanks, eh.

Ducey - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:15 PM EST (#226903) #

Bob Elliot reports:

The Jays signed free-agent, minor-league, righty reliever Winston Abreu, 33. In the previous two seasons at Triple-A Durham he walked 37 and struck out 159 in 106 innings. He was 3-5 with 38 saves and has a heavy fastball.

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:23 PM EST (#226904) #
Ben Badler at Baseball America on Lawrie;

While Sean Marcum was one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2010, he also can become a free agent after the 2012 season. Given the challenges Toronto will likely face to compete for a playoff spot in 2011, the Blue Jays did well to trade Marcum at the height of his value to bring in Brett Lawrie, who could help them during a potential competitive window down the road.

Lawrie was the second-youngest player this season in the Double-A Southern League, returning to the circuit after the Brewers skipped him over high Class A Brevard County to join Huntsville at the end of 2009. Lawrie is aggressive in all phases of the game. He has a lot of movement in his set-up at the plate, but he is a solid hitter who doesn't swing and miss excessively, though he is prone to chasing pitches outside the zone. He has average power but could grow into more as he matures thanks to his strong hands and excellent bat speed. He stole 30 bases but doesn't project to repeat that going forward, as he's just an average runner. Lawrie could become an offensive-minded second baseman, but even though he's a good athlete, his defense still needs a lot of work to become even passable at second. Many scouts believe he'll move to an outfield corner position, which would have been difficult in Milwaukee, where left fielder Ryan Braun is signed through 2015 and right fielder Corey Hart is locked up through 2013.

zeppelinkm - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:24 PM EST (#226905) #
Somebody here had predicted the Jays might be interested in W Abreu. Whoever it was - good call! He's definitely an interesting pitcher to take a flier on.
Marc Hulet - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:29 PM EST (#226906) #

Abreu's signing was announced about a week ago. That is old news.

And Lawrie is in no way comparable to Wood. Very different hitting mechanics and approaches at the plate. Wood is very all-or-nothing and cannot hit or recognize breaking balls.

Jonny German - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:38 PM EST (#226907) #

I compare Lawrie to Wood thusly: At age 20 Wood was a better prospect than Lawrie is today.

Risk. That is all I'm saying. There is a lot of risk, no matter how good the prospect is.

DH - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:43 PM EST (#226908) #
Admittedly this trade, on its own, send mixed messages about 2011.

That aside, one interesting development over the past 24 hours concerns Adrian Beltre. On Friday he said publicly he wanted to stay in Boston, rebuffing Oakland's offer which subsequently saw Oakland  pull their offer.  Baltimore was thought interested but they too were turned down. Today Baltimore gets Reynolds while Boston's acquisition of Gonzalez pushes Youkilis to 3b.

Who else needs a 3b? The Angels and Jays are the two most obvious teams with a need and with money. The White Sox, Mariners, Giants might inquire (though the Mariners will likely pass for obvious reasons). The Indians, Astros don't likely have the money.

Contract year performance aside, is he worth a 4 or 5 year investment?

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:45 PM EST (#226909) #
Wood is very all-or-nothing and cannot hit or recognize breaking balls.

Interesting. This is scouting stuff-never having seen the two I'm basing my impressions ( like most do around here) on the numbers.

Marc in the 2008 draft the Brewers took Lawrie one spot ahead of the Jays who took Cooper, do you think they would have taken Lawrie instead if the positions were flopped?
christaylor - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 12:55 PM EST (#226910) #
Am I the only one thankful that the Jays didn't nab Reynolds?

Even if he got a RH power bump in the dome, he would have been one frustrating player to watch.
Marc Hulet - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:02 PM EST (#226911) #
Lawrie is actually the better prospect at the same age. Woods had better raw power numbers but he played at Rancho Cucamonga that year and it's an extreme hitter's park. Also, consider Lawrie was one level higher at the same age. And his overall hitting ability to much, much better to Wood, who is a fastball/mistake hitter. Lawrie has a very nice swing, good bat speed. Wood has a huge upper cut to his, which creates a lot of his issues (along with pitch recognition).
Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:07 PM EST (#226913) #
My boy Mike Grange ( a friend of a friend) has left the basketball beat and has a good story up on Lawrie at the Globe.

At any rate he talks about how Lawrie isn't even the best athlete in his family-his sister is a legend in softball.

What struck me was this comment;

Lawrie comes advertised as having exceptional power and athleticism -- he has a 46-inch vertical jump and at 6-feet can dunk a basketball

Now I'm actually a basketball guy more so than baseball ( and so is Grange). He must be referring to a running vertical as opposed to the traditional standing vertical as nobody, not even Vince Carter gets to 46". Still a six foot guy who can throw it down is pretty explosive.

He sound like a much better athlete to me, than some lead us to believe.

Jonny German - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:13 PM EST (#226914) #

Lawrie is actually the better prospect at the same age.

Okay. I'll expect to see him in the Baseball America top 10 then, as Wood was #3 following his age 20 season.

Wood ... is a fastball/mistake hitter.

This is apparent now, after he's failed to hit major league pitching in 4 partial seasons. Was it apparent when he was 20?

Matthew E - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:15 PM EST (#226915) #
At any rate he talks about how Lawrie isn't even the best athlete in his family-his sister is a legend in softball.

Well then, for God's sake, why aren't the Jays going after the sister? I mean, what is this, anyway?
ayjackson - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:15 PM EST (#226917) #
Revisionist thinking.  After his age-20 season, Brandon Wood was Baseball America's #3 prospect, just behind Delmon Young and Justin Upton, and just ahead of Jeremy Heredia and Stephen Drew.
92-93 - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:26 PM EST (#226919) #

First the ridiculous Greinke package, then the comparison of Marcum to Saunders, and now this. I trust Fangraphs way too much.

I suppose that AA has decided that he can't beat the beasts of the AL East with his current roster (plus an addition or two), so he's going long.

Or perhaps his superiors decided for him by not giving him any money. Purge the whole roster of its talent please.

Wildrose - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:28 PM EST (#226920) #
Revisionist thinking.  After his age-20 season, Brandon Wood was Baseball America's #3 prospect, just behind Delmon Young and Justin Upton, and just ahead of Jeremy Heredia and Stephen Drew.

I think it shows projecting young baseball talent is not cut and dried. Heredia certainly didn't pan out either. I think that's why you hire a million scouts, bring in stats guys ( Like Tango and Rally) and try to make informed decisions using  both spheres. In the end, nobody can really see into the future.
Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:41 PM EST (#226921) #
David Thompson had a 4' vertical leap.  Ray Durham apparently had a greater vertical leap than Michael Jordan when they were both at spring training in the White Sox organization.

Overall athleticism is a good quality to look for. 

bpoz - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:53 PM EST (#226923) #
IMO this years off season is the most interesting I can remember. But then my memory plays tricks.

IMO "most of us" expected AA to be active & secretive. IMO he seems to be doing that.

Mylegacy, thanks for that possible 2011 roster, it looks good, so there are options available. I was falling into a pessimistic frame of mind for the 2011 season. A toast to you Sir.

BumWino you come up with a lot of views that have "an angel NOT thought of". To me there is value there, which I appreciate. I also love your delivery. A Thank You and a toast to you as well Sir.

To those who are suggesting the prospect of trading all OR so many of our good players, but not the young ones. I was initially baffled. I then figured that this group are futurists, what a unique but absolutely brilliant concept. I assume you believe the present line up is "not good enough", so why have a decade of being horrible like TB to then reap the success, this is a faster way to load up on high ceiling talent. There will definitely be pain involved for us fans
so YOU must constantly reassure us. Would you also delay their ML time to control them better?

Lastly V Well's contract seem to now have company IMO, so maybe the possiblity of moving it is better.
Ducey - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 01:58 PM EST (#226925) #

AA seems to subscribe to the "strong up the middle" theory.  He inherited a plethora of catching options (and added one), but has brought in two options at SS (Hech, Escobar), went out and got a flycatcher for CF (Gose), and now Lawrie for 2nd.

It will be fun in two years when this core is hopefully ready to hit the Bigs.  There are certainly no guarantees any will become stars, but at least the potential is there.  With all the pitching bubbling under as well, its exciting.

MatO - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:00 PM EST (#226926) #
At age 21 in AA, Brandon Wood had major K issues.  That should have been seen as a warning.
92-93 - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:02 PM EST (#226927) #
Lawrie's current lack of defensive value takes him out of that equation. If he sticks at 2B it's not expected to be as a great one. AA is acquiring a promising young bat here for an aging arm with a short action scouts hate, not trying to strengthen himself up the middle.
Ducey - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:04 PM EST (#226928) #

David Thompson had a 4' vertical leap.

Must have been handy on those portages...

John Northey - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:12 PM EST (#226929) #
Behind Alex Gordon?

At 20...
Lawrie: 135 games (full season) in AA
Alex Gordon: College (majors at 23)
Andy Marte: 107 games at AA, majors at 21 (24 games)
Brandon Wood: 130 games in A+, 4 in AAA, AA at 21, majors at 22

Lets see a better comparison set. Marte is reasonable, but the other 2 were at least a full level behind Lawrie at the same age and that is a very, very big factor when projecting a player.
Moe - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:29 PM EST (#226930) #
I don't mind trading Marcum.  But I would have liked a larger return (maybe there are some PTBL?). In particular, given the asking price for Greinke and the lack of FA options, the price should have been higher than one of the weaker top prospects.

Forkball - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:30 PM EST (#226932) #

I didn't realize Marcum is almost 29, his birthday is next week...... Maybe AA was capitalising on Marcum's value before it dropped.

That's a couple years older than I would have guessed as well.

AA has talked about winning with power pitchers, and Marcum didn't quite fit that.  Trading him with two years of control after a pretty good season is probably selling at the high point.  It'll be interesting to see how his career plays out.  I'm sure he'll be successful the next few years, but when we he turn into a below average starter?

While I'm disappointed to see him go I appreciate the guts that AA has.  It's certainly a move that JP would never make.
MatO - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:32 PM EST (#226933) #
Marte's a good example of a similar player to Lawrie who went completely south.  My theory is that Marte is older than than his "official" age.  Just a theory though.
Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:48 PM EST (#226934) #
There are many players with Lawrie's skill set and performance level who have succeeded and many who have been  disappointments.  Edwin Encarnacion, Marc Newfield and Willie Greene were in double A and hitting at age 20.  Wily Mo Pena and Alex Gonzalez are other examples.  There are, of course, plenty of positive examples. 

It probably would help if the club found him a position that he can handle well and let him play there in the minors for a couple of years. 

dan gordon - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 02:55 PM EST (#226935) #

I'm surprised to see so many comments about Marcum having some kind of career year last season, and that it was his best year.  His ERA in 2008 was better, at 3.39, than it was in 2010.  Last year was right about in the middle of his 2007, 2008 and 2010 seasons.  His WHIP in those 3 years (his last 3 seasons) were 1.245, 1.163 and 1.147.  How many Americal league starters have done better in their last 3 years.  Marcum is an excellent pitcher, and a lot of people don't realiize how good he is.

The Jays' record in games started by the top 4 starters last year was far better than when any other starters were in there.  I looked at that about 130 games into the season and the team had a winning % of .568 with the top 4 and .387 with others.  Not sure what the numbers were at season's end.  I find it disappointing that they've taken such a step backwards for 2011.

stevieboy22 - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 03:02 PM EST (#226937) #
I think people need to simmer down on the position thing..

He sounds like a great athlete, and hes only  20.. He hasn't had as much development as others at one position... If he is still struggling in a year, then I would start to have some concerns... I also find that when it comes to all these online scouting reports there can be a major groupthink that takes hold.. Baseball America hardly does any scouting, and just runs on consensus... I'm not saying he's not a bad defender, just that it's unfair to label him with the Dan Uggla tag at defense.. I get the impression Uggla is no where near as athletic..

I have faith the Jays didn't trade Marcum for a another corner outfielder, and the Jays scouts no what they are doing..

eudaimon - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 03:23 PM EST (#226938) #
Now BJs supposedly "in hard" on Carlos Pena?

pops - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 03:39 PM EST (#226939) #
I'd be wary of that. I think agents are floating the Jays as potential suitor knowing that AA won't comment. Boras (Pena's agent) is well known for doing stuff like this.

Though it is possible, and Pena could be a decent fit, I'm not so sure how true this could be.
uglyone - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 03:51 PM EST (#226944) #
Short, stocky, athletic but not a good fielder, low BB, high K, good but not great average, good but not great power, good but not great speed.....attitide problems Lawrie the white Raul Mondesi?
TamRa - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:05 PM EST (#226948) #
Glad we didn't get Reynolds, will be glad when we don't get Pena.

and, related to nothing, I really hope that Lawrie works out at 3B, not 2B.

Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:10 PM EST (#226949) #
Yeah, that's what I think too.
BumWino - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:11 PM EST (#226950) #

Hey, Duce!

Off-the-wall humour is good.  I love it! 

Regarding David Thompson's 48" vertical, well, yeah, that's why they named a river after the guy, eh.

Ditto, Michael Jordan.  I understand they named a river after him over in the Middle East.  The one Moses got up to, but never crossed.  That was where Moses turned the whole freakin' program over to his homeboy, Joshua.

Now fun's fun, Duce, but don't get me started on the Biblical stuff, because in that particular area, I am quite frequently guilty of revisionist thinking. 

I don't want to end up in one of those Red Chinese prisons they call "re-education centers" for the next couple of years to get my trail of consciousness more in line with that of the rest of so-called right-thinking society. 

Where The Head Man says:  "Well, BumWino, at first glance your revisionist thinking doesn't appear to be too, too terribly dangerous vis-a-vis maintaining the status quo around here, but it does represent change.  And we don't like change."

Duce?  Pass me that Little Red Book, will you? 

John Northey - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:37 PM EST (#226954) #
At age 20...
Edwin Encarnacion: split season between A+ (58 g) and AA (67 g), hitting 721 OPS in AA

Marc Newfield: full season (just 91 games though) in AA, 904 OPS, would have over 1000 in AAA the next season, would get just 250+ PA just once in the majors - 100 OPS+ at age 23 - did he have tons of injuries? Never had 100+ PA in minors after age 22, out of majors after age 25 season.

Willie Greene: split between A (34 G) and AA (96 G) with a 835 OPS in AA plus 29 G in the majors (can you say rushed) with a 114 OPS+. Would get 300+ PA in AAA each of the next 3 seasons (!) with OPS over 790 all 3 seasons. Finally at age 24 got a shot with 325 PA and a 113 OPS+, then a 110, then a 107, then came here and sucked big time (65 OPS+) and continued to suck in Cub land (66 OPS+) before retiring. Very odd career. As a Red (where he came up) he had a 106 OPS+, but otherwise was in the 65-66 range.

Encarnacion I don't see as a direct example, but the other two are. Injuries screwed up Newfield, the Reds seem to have done the same with Greene by first rushing him, then leaving him down far too long, then something royally screwing him up once he left Cincinnati.
BumWino - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:54 PM EST (#226957) #

Hey Dan!

I figured out the Jays' pitching won-lost records at season's end.  I'm doing this from memory, but I could be right on.

Big Four were 52-31; the "5th starters," Eveland, Tallet, Mills, Rzepczynski, Drabek, Hill, Litsch, et al, went 10-22.  Relief corps was 23-24.

Hill and Rzepczynski won four games over the last three weeks of the season.  On Sept. 15th, the "5th starters" were 6-19.  Ouch.

Morrow, Marcum, Cecil and Romero's combined winning percentage was .627.   Extended out to 162 games, a .627 winning percentage yields 101 wins.


ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 04:59 PM EST (#226958) #
I like examining this trade from the opposite side. If Anthopoulos had traded Lawrie for Marcum, what would the response be? I think it would go something like this.

Marcum seems like a good enough pitcher who isn't going to win you anything before 2013, when he becomes a free agent. On top of that he's a short-armer, who spent the entirety of 2009 on the DL, who's only pitched more than 160 innings once in his career and he's 29. It could well be that his 2010 season was his zenith.

What does he bring that you'd give up an infielder who at the age of 19 finished in AA, and the next season at AA led the league in total bases as a 20 year old?

I think Anthopoulos sold high on Marcum, a mid-rotation starter approaching his 30's who's previously been injured and unlikely to be here for a variety of reasons by the time Anthopoulos can potentially build a winning team. If the Blue Jays had traded Lawrie for Marcum at this point it would have been a pointless move and I'm pleased that given the state of the organization we're on the other end of it.
bpoz - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 05:27 PM EST (#226960) #
BumWino, I am starting to depend on you for...Good Stuff. It is nice to chat like this. 5th starter record. Big improvement for 2011?

ComebyDeanChance, I like your approach from the other side and agree with you. Are we becoming predictable or just consistent in our varying opinions.
92-93 - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 08:18 PM EST (#226980) #
The response would be the same as it would be if we traded prospects for Greinke or Upton - why are we trading our top prospects away when you can sign talent for "free" on the FA market? You're really starting to master the hyperbole over there.
Nolan - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 08:18 PM EST (#226981) #
Bum Wino: Please look away for a couple minutes while I talk about you behind your back.

My theory is that Bum Wino is a reader/commenter as BTF and an admirer of Jack Keefe.  Bum Wino is his spin-off alter ego attempt...and a pretty good one at that.

Wino: Okay, done.

Rich - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:21 PM EST (#226995) #
ComebyDeanChance, that's an interesting take.  I also agree that AA sold high on Marcum and is gambling that Lawrie will turn out to be an even more valuable property in a few years' time.  I like Marcum a lot and think he is a solid #2/3 starter on a championship club but only time will tell who got the better of this one.  It says to me that AA is looking long-term rather than thinking the team can make a 10-win jump next summer.
Lefty - Monday, December 06 2010 @ 11:23 PM EST (#226996) #
I caught a quite few of those Hecate Strait halibut on the Goose Island Bank. One was 120 lbs. Put at shot in its head before it broke surface.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 01:01 AM EST (#227001) #
Another positive note is that with Lawrie in the fold the Jays have will have a lot of position flexibility going into the future. For the infield we could see several combination of Hill/Lawrie at 2nd/3rd base, and Escobar/Hech at SS/2nd. Lawrie could even play some outfield if needed.

While Lawrie substantially increases our positional depth I don't think losing Marcum hurts our pitching depth near as much. We now have two open spots in the rotation going into the future and still have above average prospects like Drabek, Stewart, McGuire, and even Wojo to fill them within the next two years. Outsides shots also go to Rzep and Jenkins.

Overall the Jays system is much improved and more balanced based on this trade.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 01:28 AM EST (#227003) #
What does he bring that you'd give up an infielder who at the age of 19 finished in AA, and the next season at AA led the league in total bases as a 20 year old?

I think Anthopoulos sold high on Marcum, a mid-rotation starter approaching his 30's who's previously been injured and unlikely to be here for a variety of reasons by the time Anthopoulos can potentially build a winning team. If the Blue Jays had traded Lawrie for Marcum at this point it would have been a pointless move and I'm pleased that given the state of the organization we're on the other end of it.


well stated.
I agree.
Ryan C - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 05:36 PM EST (#227043) #

AA was just interviewed by McCowan on the FAN and talked briefly about Lawrie.  Paraphrasing, he said that they have been chasing him since last year, and have asked him multiple times, but Milwaukee was never interested in talking until earlier this week when they asked about Marcum.  In conversation about his defense, AA said that right now he thinks his defensive talents may be best utilized at 3B.

About Greinke, AA gave the impression that the Jays interest was probably being overblown, saying that anytime anyone is available that he thinks could help the team, he will at least make the call to find out the asking price.



T in NY - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 06:56 PM EST (#227050) #

I've been thinking about this trade for a day and a half now and i just don't like it. While I am a Marcum fan and sad to see him go, I can live with trading him if the jays got fair value, which I do not believe they did. In an earlier post it was said " would the jays have traded Lawrie for Marcum" and the answer is no. the Jays have pitching depth and are short on position players so it doesn't make sense, but that doesn't mean the team gave an asset away for less than they should have gotten. Marcum is a very underated pitcher who has done well in the AL East and is a legit  2/3 on a playoff team. He is controllable for two more years and because of scouts opinions of him and the injury will probably sign cheaper than what pitchers with similar return would give you. Who is better, Marcum or Lackey, Marcum will never get Lackey's cotract or anywhere near it. There aren't that many pitchers of Marcum's stature out there right now and his "peers" do not come cheaply. Marcum also has extra value in the NL because he can handle a bat and is a great fielder in a league where small ball is much more of a factor.

Lawrie for all his promise is a prospect, I get starry eyed over them too, but what is the failure rate for prospects and if Lawrie suceeds, what is the chance he's better than Marcum or more valueable, 25% if the Jays are lucky and when will this be? He's 20 now, lets say he comes up for good in 2012 and then needs a few years to get his game going, think  Snider or thousands of other young players, so this now now 2014 or 15 if the Jays are lucky. I think the rewers got incredible return for Lawrie.

I agree that the Jays need to take chances for special talent and I realize that Lawrie is well regarded but so was Sil Campusano, in fact, much more highly so. I do not mind trading Wallace or even Stewart or Drabek for high level young talent at positions of need. The Jays simply should have gotten more for an asset like Marcum. Alex is an exciting GM, but he really needs these tyes of gambles to pay off or instead of getting those 10 more wins, we could be looking at 90 loses in 2014.

bpoz - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 08:43 PM EST (#227065) #
I wonder who the opening day pitcher for 2011 will be. If AA trades him then that is 3 in a row.
StephenT - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 10:57 PM EST (#227077) #
Marc, thanks for the link to your Lawrie interview from 2008 ( ).  It was a great read.  I like that he sees himself as a Dustin Pedroia type (only bigger), whom he has met.

And his statement back then that he only planned on staying "a year-and-a-half" in the minors is quite consistent with his statement today that he's "done with minor league baseball" as per .

P.S. Some Marcum trivia: he only faced the Yankees once in 2010, as per .
jerjapan - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 11:08 PM EST (#227079) #
I hate to say this because it always sounds like a cop-out to me, but it really is too early to evaluate this trade.  AA has clearly shown a willingness to trade assets with a perceived higher value - Wallace for Gose, Marcum for Lawrie, even Farquhar and Magnusson for Davis - for a player who fits the model AA is looking for.  JP used to talk about targeting 'character' players although his teams seemed not to demonstrate this trait ... it remains to be seen if AA's focus on high impact potential, positional difficulty and athleticism will pan out.  Like it or not, I can't recall a time this team was so clearly focused on a specific type of player.  Combine this with the renewed emphasis on scouting and it's hard not to be excited to see if AA's vision pans out.  Obviously, some of the prospects he has coveted will be busts, and some of the prospects he seems indifferent to might contribute (I think both Emaus and Farquhar could be decent players), but this 'high risk high reward' approach might be the only way to seriously compete with the brutality of the AL east.

I think he's on the right track.

And it's interesting to see how young all the exciting GMs are. 

jgadfly - Tuesday, December 07 2010 @ 11:30 PM EST (#227081) #
So does AA get to make an adjustment to the 40 man roster ?  ...  Actually , I just checked , and Lawrie has replaced Marcum on the 40 man ???  How does that work ?  Did Lawrie sign a MLBaseball contract with Milwaukee? There are 2 openings to my counting .
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 04:19 AM EST (#227090) #

Going here will allow you to listen to Keith Law and then Alex Anthopoulos talk Blue Jay stuff.

1) Brett Lawrie will play 3B or he will play RF or he will play 2B.   But one thing is clear, he starts on the big club in 2012.   His bat is too good not to.

2) Alex Anthopoulos is not done with Zach Greinke.   He just needs to do the deal or expand it.   Until someone else gets Greinke, Alex will still be in on him.  

3) Jesse Litsch, as per John Farrell and as per Alex Anthopoulos is one of our starters, with Marc Rzepczynski or Zach Stewart or ? will be our other challengers.  

3) Cubs sign Pena

Thomas - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 08:11 AM EST (#227093) #
And his statement back then that he only planned on staying "a year-and-a-half" in the minors is quite consistent with his statement today that he's "done with minor league baseball"

It's a shame for Brett that it's probably not consistent with how the Toronto front office sees the ideal development path for Lawrie.

Jonny German - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 09:54 AM EST (#227100) #

2) Alex Anthopoulos is not done with Zach Greinke.   He just needs to do the deal or expand it.   Until someone else gets Greinke, Alex will still be in on him.  

Where by "Alex Anthopoulos" you mean "Richard S.S."? Your continual blather about Greinke doesn't change the fact that AA has said nothing to indicate he's pursuing that angle.

BTW, it's Zack. With a K.

Spicol - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 10:41 AM EST (#227101) #

Ugh, the Facebook pics of Lawrie alone make me not a fan of this trade.

Yes, that's irrational. I embrace it fully.

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 01:19 PM EST (#227111) #
I think it is irrational to judge Lawrie on those photos. They probably exist on 70-80% of all 18-20-year-olds' Facebook pages... including athletes and non-athletes. I'm not saying it's OK, I'm just saying it shouldn't be a shock whatsoever.
Spicol - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 03:33 PM EST (#227120) #

The photos weren't "shocking". It's that he looks like a Jersey Shore extra.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 03:56 PM EST (#227122) #
Lawrie is a Canuck, so perhaps you mean Lake Shore? This would at least give new meaning to the "mistake by the lake".
jgadfly - Wednesday, December 08 2010 @ 04:24 PM EST (#227124) #

IF ...  the Jays are somewhat short on young impact bats then wouldn't attaining Lawrie be viewed as a plus because he is so highly rated ?   Sickles has him at number 14 in his '2010 top 50 hitting prospects'  and Lawrie was younger than everyone ahead of him ( ) and could be Top 5 by late spring through 'prospect attrition' .  The Jays haven't had a bat that high since Snider and  "if" given the chance of trading the Marcum of today for the Snider of 2 years ago, would you not have made that deal, especially given the amount of pitching the Jays now have in their system ?  Also,  Lawrie has a better arm, more speed and the potential to fill the 3rdbase position for a number of years .  I think he's worth the risk .

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